Thursday, April 14, 2011

All Of Us Happy Turds

So, are you glad that you found this site? Have you told all your friends to bookmark it? Did you let Tungstenman scare you out of your positions? Did all the top-callers and trolls on ZH frighten you? I hope not. I sincerely hope not.

Trader Dan wrote a great piece the other day about Tungstenman carrying the water for the Fed. He's probably right. However, only The Turd posited that Tungstenman downgraded crude for their own benefit. They were likely short a boatload of 110+ calls and needed to get crude lower...fast. If not that, they know that crude is headed much higher and they wanted to buy lower. Who do you think was on the other side of all those sell orders Monday and Tuesday? EF Hutton?

At any rate, the storm seems to have passed. The metals, led by silver, did not suffer any permanent damage. The only question now is: Will The Cartel once again waste taxpayer money by attempting to paint a temporary doubletop of charts? They might, though they didn't at $38.20 so who can say for sure. All I know is that silver is chugging ahead like an tremendous machine. Or in the words of Mickey Goldmill, a greezy, Italian tank. It eats lightning and craps thunder!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaaVs5W6T6s
(Damn. Here I am, a grown man. And this makes me cry every time.)

Anyway, we're kickin ass and at the highs of the day with about a half hour to go. Watch the Globex this afternoon for continued fireworks. More as needed. TF

396 comments:

  1. WOW & double WOW.
    I am first!!!!!

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  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  3. Gosh.. Yes I'm glad I found this site. Thanks Turd!

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  4. Eric #1, is a $12 premium a good premium for Sovreigns? I have a free shipping coupon to this place:

    http://www.learcapital.com/qry/storefront.taf?_function=detail&_storetype=Coins&_product_id=234

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  5. You wanna be first? Follow @TFMetals on Twitter ;)

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  6. Thank goodness for the new thread.

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  7. Pablo

    Trust me, that is a great price. WIth Free Ship, Grab all you can afford!

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  8. Next Asian trading session should lift silver.

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  9. TURD IS THE TURD! I am so glad I found this blog. To have a pro share his wisdom and professionalism is a great gift. LONG LIVE THE TURD!

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  10. Question for the options traders and specifically concerning all the natgas talk recently. Anybody got any NGAS calls? I bought some OTM calls earlier this week and this morning when I logged in to my account I noticed that the ticker had changed from NGAS to MHR. A call to my trading account company confirmed a 'merger or buyout' ..they didn't seem to really be sure...by MHR of NGAS. Wow.. I'm not sure what to think about this. Any thoughts? ...What I don't like is that my options were exchanged from regular contracts that hold 100 underlying shares to a non-standard option that only holds 8 shares. ....I am just so new at this that I don't know what to think about it. Not sure this is good or that I would have bought my contracts now had I known this. I don't think this is going to be a gainer for me but not sure. I wish I had just bought NGAS stock. "/

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  11. H

    IMHO, you are being silly. Sit tight with what you have. It's good silver.

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  12. Bye, bye POSX. Sad to see you go:-(

    Oh well, nothing we can do about it (G'rrr) except keep on doing what were doing.

    Not even a hint of a EE beatback at this point. I echo TF, just wait until the globex. We might find ourselves cheering the action again tonight.
    Last Thursday night was so exciting. Now look where we are :-)

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  13. Having met Jim Willie before, I can tell you he is a very smart guy (PhD in stats) and is not a crackpot. Saying silver could go to $200 even caught this perma bull by surprise. Wow...

    Bay of Pigs says Oink to that! ;o)

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  14. TF, great call. ZH is covering it now:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wti-recovers-over-60-losses-goldman-downgrade

    Next on the Tungstenman's list: downgrade for gold and silver?

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  15. any real news on CDE? Would love to buy this big selloff but no way if there is fundamental trouble. As usual there is no way to find even the simplest most recent news on this stock. Just rumors and such. I will try posting again. My last 4 have been lost to the ether. I am thinking there is high traffic here now.

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  16. Just quick thought related my argument at previous post on SLW smack down. Market makers who sold options need to delta hedge by buying delta amount of underlying stocks. As option approaches to the expiry as April option expiring tomorrow, delta dramatically changes from almost zero to one from OTM to ITM around strike. That means they have to increase(buy) their hedge from zero to "1" unit of underlying if big price movement makes the option become ITM. They would rather smack down price to force near strike option to stay OTM and delta=0.

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  17. jpig porkin bacon FRY intense. Like locust in a wheatfield wildfire. Let the theiving rat basturds ASSet burn to ashes. All fall down.

    Been tryin to clarify the 3 ticker symbols as gld/slv realted to the dow/s&p offically expire 4/15 but come off the board close of business 4/14. nasdog! 4 ticker symbols related to that index officially close 4/16 but come off the board close of business 4/15. This is the way it always been since I've traded options for over a decade! Anyone no different?

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  18. Cool, I just ordered 5 of them while the getting's good. Now just have to pop a personal check in the mail and my physical stash will be balanced again.

    If anyone else wants the free shipping code it's one I found on a coupon site, the code is " BA29B " it says it applies to 'new customers who make a first order over $1500'.

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  19. damn, now we are rolling. turd, thk you for the posts. as they say, timing is everything & ur timing is impeccable.

    i'm riding this swing to 44-45 region still with 7% trailing stop loss on AGQ bot yesterday. my trailing stop is almost at the initial basis point already...meaning i am almost at risk-free point.

    any other traders on here, if so, are there any other good forums for trading u have found?

    mr. turd when u make the new site, is there anyway to create separate forums for short-term traders vs long-term investors vs macro thoughts? just a thought

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  20. the problem is i am not making money. all my miners are down. the only good one was cde that just got hit. small gld. small phsycial. is the only way to make money options?

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  21. By the way.. MHR.. Magnum Hunter Resources does look like a pretty good play. ..I think I've seen it mentioned here before. ..This deal is probably a good deal for NGAS stock holders. :]

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  22. Ginger

    Looks like you bought into something without knowing all the info. MHR is Magnum Hunter. They bought NGAS earlier and the share swap was just done. No idea how this will work out for you. MHR is a good company though.

    http://www.b2i.us/profiles/investor/ResLibraryView.asp?BzID=1969&ResLibraryID=44614&Category=1848

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  23. Eric,
    MEEEeeee??? Buy into something I didn't know about??? Bite your tongue. :D

    Ya... it *would* **appear** that way. Huh.

    "/

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  24. Thanks Turd for your help in guiding us through the PM markets.

    I discovered something interesting when going through yesterday's retail sales numbers. It said gas station sales have risen by 16.7% from March '10 to March '11. But if you adjust that number to actual gallons of gas sold, sales have fallen by 12%!. This shows you all the talk of a rebounding economy is all MOPE.

    If you're interested, you can see my analysis at www.verifythecpi.blogspot.com

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  25. Pablo

    Nice. You'll never regret it. Sovereigns are my #1 favorite coin. Even better than these Double Eagles we been blabbing about for the last 15 hours.

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  26. Almost time for the daily price fix!

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  27. paas got hit just now. should i sell?

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  28. Ok.. ..anyway.. time will tell.

    This may end up being one of those 'learning' buys that I cut some options teeth on the pain. *shudder*

    I am a little surprised with all the natgas talk though that the merger wasn't mentioned. I know others here have mentioned NGAS. Don't know how I missed the news of this because I was *just* researching this over the weekend! "/

    Live.&.Learn

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  29. why is everyone so happy? silver is going up but none of the silver instruments are. seems each one gets trashed in turn. going to try agq but it makes me nervous. they will trash that too .

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  30. Look guys, this has been fun and all but I really gotta get to work. April 14!! Almost done!!!!!

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  31. And because I never like to leave on any sort of negative vibe.. ....the really good news of the day for me is that SLX is up .003 !!

    Now THAT'S what I'm talkin' about!!! !!!! whooopie!

    "/

    :D
    (gone again) bye.

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  32. AFRUM:
    I use TDWaterhouse & they left a message on my acct stating that my SLV options had to be settled by 4:00PM Friday 15th. But there was also some note re 16th - which I deleted so cannot recheck.

    All previous times I covered my SLV options, per TDW, always by 4:00PM that third Friday of month which this month of April is 15th.

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  33. lalla, you hit precisely upon the difference between the paper and physical markets. Unless you are willing to dedicate years of trial/error and 'tuition' fees, the paper game is a game with moving goalposts. Whereas, PM are the goal.

    I have just enough in the market to keep my finger on the pulse and to remind myself that I am a horrible trader. The great majority of my money and profits are in physical but that's just me.

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  34. Repeating this for Eric#1 and all of you who feel like they get lucky sometimes concerning your investing...

    "Luck is where intelligence, awareness and opportunity meet and having the guts to recognize it and act."

    Pat yourselves on the back for your due diligence and guts. We deserve it!

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  35. @ginger: wouldn't worry too much. usually when these things happen after a day or 2 trading is reinitiated and u can always sell ur calls and switch to stocks. this is, of course, assuming that the broker info is true. also if there is a merger/takeover, it would have affected ur stock purchase as well so not sure that would have made a difference.

    also, here is my minioptions rant:

    i have traded options extensively, i would be wary of trading any large amts, so i hope ur exposure is small. as general rule, no one option trade trade should be more than 3% of total trading capital. also make sure ur contract commission is no more than $1.50 per contract. u may already be well aware of these rules. but i read prob close to 50-60 books on options & still lost a few k in first year (btw i considered that a success as 95% blowup in 12 months is expected). also would rec if u decide to trade options, u read up & make sure u know delta, gamma, theta, and vega. if it bores u, keep it simple and stick with stocks. at end of day, trading options is as much about trading volatility as opposed to trading only directionally.

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  36. lalla -

    It's not always easy to make money in options either. But it is leveraged and more volatile if that's what your looking for. Freeboundary had an excellent post earlier regarding the stock price action around expiration as it relates to delta. These can be incredible buying oppurtunities as come Mon. these forces will not be in play.

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  37. For what it's worth, last month SLW was a dog right before opex, and once my options expired, it took off the following week.

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  38. Ginger

    BTW, you are doing calls on these little nat gas plays? Oh Lordy!! You either got balls of steel, or maybe ignorance is bliss? In any case, you are my hero. Doing stuff I'm way too chickenshit to do.

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  39. AGQ up almost 6 percent...got tired of the short miners long phys game....want instant gratification...

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  40. EF Hutton - now there's a name I haven't heard in years!

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  41. Eric1 It was all true. My pail piggybcame today. Report later.

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  42. Keep this in mind while Nigeria holds it's elections this weekend.

    "To satisfy that demand, the United States imports 9 to 12 million barrels of oil per day ... Nigeria sells 40 percent of its huge oil supply to the United States. Nigeria ..."

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  43. Eric #1 you will appreciate this, there is a tax prep firm here in town that has been advertising a gimmick since Jan 1 to advance you your tax refund back in Gold american Eagles or cash, your choice.

    I probably should have filed my taxes with them in January huh ;)

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  44. Feeling with butler/willie comments, the EE is running circles in empty silver bullion vaults. No corner found to shit deliverable quality crimex 1000 oz bricks in the circle of deceit. Next echo we hear, may be single shots from those empty vaults, as reality buries the rat bastard bankster gangsters. No mercy as we silver rabid dogs have been accumulating silver as a steady drop of water drips upon granite and erodes through it over time. Our time has come! The back of the jpig morgue silver naked short cartel is breakin up, as so many china dolls in an 10 plus earthquake.

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  45. Turd

    I would like to make a suggestion ... I have been going back through the threads (March/April)
    and as I am scrolling though each I come across your announcement of a new thread ... when you do that is it possible to supply a direct link to the new thread in the announcement?

    It would save a search up the thread to find the next link for someone searching through the archives. Thanks

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  46. A long term lurker, I thought I would write a quick thank you to the turd for such an insightful blog. On a vaguely related note I just got back from Kyrgyzstan and found some things quite interesting for PM's.
    1) Despite a large US airforce base in the country and dollars being used, people there prefer the Euro as a "hard" alternative to the local currency.
    2) The country has a large gold mining industry and people have always used their gold fillings as their bank in rural areas, this tendancy is only getting more prevelant as they get wealthier.
    3) When I got back to the UK I had about £50 of local currency. But couldn't find anyone willing to change it for sterling. It made me realise that those bits of paper really are just...... well, bits of paper. I'm glad I had this epiphany now...
    This last really was

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  47. sp,
    Excellent advice. Thank you. I do have some books on the way that OldNavy and others here have recommended. And I have a very (miniscule) amount of $ tied up in my options account. It is really my 'learning' money. I don't want to lose it but I am only using it to learn how to be a better options trader. I currently (besides the silly NGAS thing that I didn't research very well) only have small SLV May calls. Nothing to make me lose too much sleep and they are in the green. If I can close them out with any sort of profit at all.....I will feel like I am an options genius. :D .....Not really. I won't get arrogant. I know that the options account giveth and the options account taketh away.

    I sincerely appreciate your thoughts on the NGAS buy and merger and what that might mean for the future of my contracts. I am just going to take your advice here and wait to see what happens in the next few days with the news. ..Thanks very much..

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  48. @rthaler 71
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/14/bolivia-mining-concessions-idUSN1427464720110414

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  49. Confirmation number: 6LE02564KE0206705

    Dear Turd,

    Thank you so much for providing a great investment community and a place for good hearted and like minded folks to collaborate on how to survive and prosper in the days to come!

    Feed the Turd!!

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  50. Here's Pablo's new stack. Ok not that big, but it's a start!!

    http://www.pandaamerica.com/details.asp?item=6289&grp=1&categ=102

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  51. One more thought. If you trade a stock with huge OI position around a specific strike (like 43~45 of SLW), then think the strike as a level of strong resistance around its expiry... Apologies if this is too apparent to you but just in case for someone frustrated with recent price action of SLW...

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  52. Turdites:

    New Trader Dan on Silver:

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-M4RbJEMpWjU/TacnARy51FI/AAAAAAAAAVI/CBKn9FyuG6Y/s1600/snapshot-631.png

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  53. Freeboundary,

    Dude you lost me on the SLW delta delta delta puts. Can you translate into a more accessible language for those of who have been drinking heavily since age 14?

    ANd Blano, That's a good point about SLW pre and post options expiry.

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  54. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  55. My feeling is it will test $42 for a few weeks. In the mean time, go to cash or get out of your IRA's (borrow against if you can) because the market is so anxious and propped up it could death spiral at any time.

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  56. Eric said:
    "You either got balls of steel, or maybe ignorance is bliss"

    Eric,
    I am not certain that I like or go with either one of your choices there for me. :D

    ...NGAS is a stock that I had actually bought in to when it was .30 or .40. I sold earlier this year and wished I hadn't as it's doubled in sp now. So, I do like the company. I will probably be buying more of their stock as I can afford over the next several months. ....So.. can I get another choice here for how you classify me on my NGAS plays? :D .....I prefer 'intuitive'. lol.

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  57. From reading the posts it seems there is a lot of short term traders here..which is fine. I think that sometimes that approach can be so myopic that it misses phenomenal opportunity. I got started in the securities industry in late '82--the beginnings of the great equity bull market. As young bucks, my friends and I traded a lot of options. We used to call them roman candles. Long story short, we blew a lot of money. Taking a look back if we would have just gone long the underlying stocks instead of trying to time things with the options..it would have been easy street. We were sitting in the middle ofa generational bull market and we were just pissing away $'s.

    Right now, we are in the middle of a generational metals bull market. there are still fortunes to be made. The Livermore adages make sense... "be right and sit tight", "it wasn't my thinking but my sitting" ... it would be tragic to be soooo right in identifying this bull yet not benefit from it. Options are a tough gig.. good luck to all and just remember what Santa says about gold being "insurance"

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  58. Freeboundary,

    Just saw your other post. I actually to be spoken to real slowly and simply when it comes to options.

    SK

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  59. @ginger:

    good to hear. u r doing it the right way. what i found best for me was to trade small amts (under $10k regardless of how many million u have ;) ) and then gradually increase the amount every few months. if u can't make money at 10k it won't happen at higher levels. the more money u have in options the tougher it gets to make money (in some ways).

    here is a list of some books that i read in the beginning, not inclusive, just a guide. also cboe website was good. i would rec thinkorswim as best options brokerage if u go this route big-time.

    http://www.amazon.com/Option-Volatility-Pricing-Strategies-Techniques/dp/155738486X/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1302802321&sr=8-3

    http://www.amazon.com/Options-Strategic-Investment-Lawrence-McMillan/dp/0735201978/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&qid=1302802321&sr=8-4

    http://www.amazon.com/Bible-Options-Strategies-Definitive-Practical/dp/0131710664/ref=sr_1_6?ie=UTF8&qid=1302802321&sr=8-6

    http://www.amazon.com/Options-Made-Easy-Profitable-Trading/dp/0131871358/ref=sr_1_8?ie=UTF8&qid=1302802321&sr=8-8

    http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Options-Expiration-Strategies-Winning/dp/0135058724/ref=sr_1_13?ie=UTF8&qid=1302802321&sr=8-13

    http://www.amazon.com/Generate-Thousands-Stocks-Before-Selling/dp/1585974242/ref=sr_1_14?ie=UTF8&qid=1302802321&sr=8-14

    http://www.amazon.com/Volatility-Edge-Options-Trading-Strategies/dp/0132354691/ref=sr_1_16?ie=UTF8&qid=1302802321&sr=8-16

    http://www.amazon.com/McMillan-Options-Second-Wiley-Trading/dp/0471678759/ref=sr_1_22?ie=UTF8&qid=1302802348&sr=8-22

    http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Option-Greeks-Volatility-Bloomberg/dp/157660246X/ref=sr_1_23?ie=UTF8&qid=1302802348&sr=8-23

    http://www.amazon.com/Day-Trading-Options-Profiting-Distortions/dp/0137029039/ref=sr_1_36?ie=UTF8&qid=1302802368&sr=8-36

    http://www.amazon.com/Options-Traders-Workbook-Problem-Solving-Approach/dp/0137148100/ref=sr_1_37?ie=UTF8&qid=1302802368&sr=8-37

    augen is usually a good author. can't go through all the recommendations, amazon site has a bunch of reviews though.

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  60. LOL - First day this week I won't be eating Cup a Noodles from the survival pantry. (I force myself on down days) May have to try the canned roast beef from Costco in celebration today. Anyone tried it?

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  61. Seems it is for sure Bolivia that is haunting both Coeur d' Alene and Pan AMerican.

    http://www.theflyonthewall.com/permalinks/entry.php/PAAS;CDM;CDEid1409428/PAAS;CDM;CDE-Pan-American-Silver-slumps-after-Bolivia-says-it-may-cancel-mining-deal-

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  62. Phil,

    We've been through this ad nauseum. Those who held through the great ass-fucking of fall 2008 see things differently. Holding HL, for instance, from 12 to 2 is stupid. Stopping out at 10.77, then rebuying at 2, now that's how you make money.

    Sk

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  63. Whoa... ..Copying & Pasting all of those to a word document, sp. Thanks a million!

    .....And speaking of millions.. ...uh.. .no. None of those lying around here..for investing or for any other purpose. You'd laugh if you only knew what amounts I'm investing in options. But that's ok. It's making me happy to see some green no matter how small the amount! :] ...I'm happy just learning and trying and we'll see where it shall take me. ...I more than appreciate your book recos!! (It will help others here too I'm sure...not just me:)

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  64. paulin. Only explanation I have is that slv options are exercisable. This would give you/your broker option to exercise. That TD gives you a heads up is great. Etrade never did for me and exercised my in the money DOW/S&P indexed, 3 ticker symbol options on FRY mornings.. I then had the option to sell the shares exercised Fryday or hold them. Has to do with how each broker money tiers client accounts. Never lost on any exercised options to stock by etrade. Haven't a clue on your money exchange or paper to profit chasing habits. I certainly would reveal them here or anywhere else.

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  65. @lalla - miners are extremely volatile, especially as the most profitable mines are in some of the most sociopolitically unpredictable locations (where wages are low, energy likely subsidized by govt, low environmental regulations). options are even more volatile. both are great ways to lose a lot of money really fast, although at least miners don't have time decay like options making miners a safer bet. noone here can tell you whether a stock will go up or down in the next 5 minutes, 5 days, or 5 years - essentially, we are all gamblers, though we all are pretty confident we have an edge on the house. i do not know what your level of experience is. i do not know your level of experience, but if you do not know what your entry and exit points are to minimize loss and take profits, i question whether you need to learn more about the markets before you are putting your money on the line.

    Many brokers will let you use a paper account to learn how to trade stocks and options, and maybe you should look into these activities before putting yourself at financial risk (try tdameritrade, optionshouse, and i am sure there are others - i don't recommend any of them).

    If you are not interested in trading, but are more interested in investing, then physical funds such as PHYS, CEF, SIVR, PSLV and miner ETFs such as GDX, GDXJ, SIL (ticker symbols on american markets) might be good for you to research. By purchasing the miner ETFs, you can minimize the negative effect that political influences may have on an individual miner or mines in a specific location, but this also dampens profits on big moves by individual stocks.

    Be careful, and good luck,

    MHT

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  66. Excellent reminders and sage advice Phil. ..Thank you.

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  67. Don't reveal trading habits here paulin. Sorry for the typo!

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  68. Testes

    Actually I would say that junior miners DO have time decay, in the sense that they are constantly spending money on drilling, consultants, and insider management salaries. It's always only a matter of time until they come to market with a financing and dilute the bejeezzus out of you. Witness Great Panther and Claude Resources recently.

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  69. ginger:

    i put that out there b/c a friend of mine decided to do options after i did and started with 500k, now 350k, lost 150k in about a week and a half...for him, it didn't matter financially in the long run but it is a warning (and he is a pretty smart cat, too)

    it is great to see everyone on here taking their lives and finances into their own hands. many of my warnings are not just for u but anyone who reads them...i have gone through so many options forums and seen burns left and right so i am vigilant about spreading that message.

    but i'm not saying don't try, cause, hell, i still trade them daily and made a good deal of cash that way

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  70. Forgot to post this video from Max Keiser about trolls on the internet. I think AJ's comments applies to what we just witnessed here this week.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euaAPC1-PmY&feature=player_embedded

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  71. Hi SKK, I have write this quickly while hiding from my boss, so my apologies if my writing is not very clear. For a market maker who sold one option, they need to buy delta amount of stock to hedge their exposure to market movement. For one contract of SLW Apr option struck at 42, delta is 72.65 as of now, i.e. market maker has to buy 72.65 shares of SLW stock. On the other hand, for Apr option struck at 44, delta is 24, so they need to buy only 24 shares of SLW. Just two dollar change of underlying force them to buy roughly 50 more shares per one option contract. They need to unwind all these stocks after option expiry, which is certain huge risk for them.
    By the way, If you look at the payoff function of option, then it very kinky around strike as it is close to expiry, but very smooth as it is far from expiry, hence underlying price movement affects delta much less for longer term option.

    I promise to write more in depth note on option stuff when time permits. Hope this helps.

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  72. All hail TF for that morning call saying watch out after 40.80. My metals stocks are playing possum even with the upturn - hope they're just playing and not really dead. Jim Willie is my favorite scary metals writer and the fact that he's on board is a boon for everybody here.

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  73. I see the Fed just rolled out Plosser and he had the usual "money tightening will happen and that the Fed. can control inflation very quickly etc."

    We only hear from these guys on positve PM days and when it looks like gold has some traction...yawn!

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  74. @ Phil
    Sorry you had such a bad expewrience in the 80's. I got started in 1979 and my experience as a trader was the complete opposite. Most traders I know also have a buy and hold portfolio and a trading portfolio. There is room for both if you have the right orienatation. Good Luck

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  75. I'm also of the opinion that the DOW is rolling over and heading to 11,600. If you have 401K or IRA and you can't cash out, you should seriously consider parking that in your funds "cash" option in case it really hits the fan here in the next few weeks

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  76. Regarding options - paper trade until you figure out what works for you. You can make a lot of money, you can lose a lot of money. I ended 2010 at 600% profit, strictly options. I'm down this week but it is house money, sort of. You still hate to be down ever.

    I prefer to sell premium as opposed to pay for it. Just a preference but it does give you some downside protection and trading spreads is less volatile. You can also buy and sell one leg to adjust to the delta you are looking for.

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  77. Hello again,

    I posted (2 threads ago, in the nightly thread), that this looks like a Cup and Handle formation, but got no reply

    As soon as this cup and handle formation ends (today), FRYday will be AMAZING

    Not in chicago but "Da BULLZ all the waaaay!!!"

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  78. Ginger

    Check out FreeBoundary's post to SSK. If you understood a single word of that then props to you! Because I just shake my head and walk away. Hey I can lose plently of money on things I THINK I understand thank you very much!! Experience brings the knowledge to know when to walk away, know when to run....

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  79. I actually value the options advice that is posted here that warns and direct us of how careful to be. It reminds me to stay humble no matter what. I read info like that about your friend, sp, who was a very smart options trader..knew what he was doing and still lost alot of money. Kind of makes me think "just WHO do I think I am?" ..that I could do this successfully. Which, of course, only serves to make you that much more alert and cautious.

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  80. FreeBoundary

    No knock on you though! Keep it coming!!

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  81. The scathing report of GS all over MSM today. Wonder if they had advance notice, thus all of the calls they made this week to bail on their positions.

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  82. Damn right I am glad to have found this site, and nope not scared, I am in it for the long haul.

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  83. Today would be a great day if my PAAS calls weren't obliterated by the Bolivian government.

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  84. @atlee

    i have tremendous respect for anyone who made it through so many different markets and is still in the game. i am in my mid-30s and only started about 5 years ago but have, for better and worse, been through alot of changes already...the fact that u have survived this far trading probably puts u in the 1/1000 category!

    congrats, it is good to see a few survivors on the other side

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  85. Raul, I see the formation you are calling a cup and handle. Even thought that 24hr formation played out like a c&h, I believe those formations aren't valid on that short of a time frame. I think it needs to be weeks if not months. TAers, thoughts?

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  86. Well - I'll put it this way...

    while Vamoose was yelling "It's going to $32", I was buying SLV and GLD call spreads hand over fist.

    They are paying off handsomely today!!

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  87. Ramping up. The more I read from GPL's earnings release today, the more I like it. Just a sample:

    "The company's first-quarter gold production rose 45 percent to 2,310 ounces and silver production was up 15 percent to 410,640 ounces.

    The company, which has mines in Mexico, reported better gold grades from the Santa Margarita vein of about 9.8 grams per tonne (g/t) of ore mined, versus 1.51 g/t last year. This vein accounted for about half the production from the Guanajuato mine.

    First-quarter silver production from the Topia mine rose 5 percent to 137,219 ounces as compared with a year earlier.

    The production growth for the company is good for the quarter but is expected to be higher in the second half of the year, taking production up by 2 million ounces by the end of the year, said analyst Christos Doulis of Stonecap Securities Inc.

    The company backed its production target of 3.8 million silver equivalent ounces for 2012, a part of its three-year strategy to ramp up production. "

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  88. I don't know Eric.. ..FreeBoundary had me busting out laughing at "hiding from my boss" LOL. ...But then on from there.. ..yes, he pretty much left me .. ...yeah. clueless.

    Alpha, delta, phi, beta. ..Ok.

    That is where OldNavy's, SP's, and others book reccos will teach me well. I have books on the way. Until then..not much wagered.

    The really scary part about FB's post though???.................. at the very end he promised to write a more indepth note about it later. :[ ...as if what he just wrote was the easy stuff to get.

    lol.. Ok. What I have mostly learned today is how dumb I am.

    :D

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  89. Good stuff Phil..I listen to Santa also and I mostly have been OTM long calls in the PM's and crude. Time gives me confidence and I see PM's/Crude going much higher eventually and steadily (and the near term it looks like today)

    Sanata also recommends going long regarding higher interest rates.
    I want to invest in OTM calls on long term interest rates going much higher and am holding out until I se an indication that momentum is headed there.
    Any thoughts on options and higher interest rates? Any personel fave's?
    Thanks!

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  90. Ging

    I'll just stick to my gold coins that I like to flip in the air and spin on the countertop. Simple enough for me.

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  91. Freeboundary,

    Just copied that into a word doc to read more carefully. Thank you. I need to learn the options end of the game.

    SK

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  92. SK,

    Here's an article on Kinross that gives a couple different perspectives on why it may be a good buy at this time. Anita Soni at Credit Suisse has a few words about them, she recently upgraded them from neutral to buy. It's hard to find unfiltered analyst comments, they issue reports but those are generally internal to their clients and don't make it out into the open...

    Reasons to love Kinross

    http://www.bnn.ca/Blogs/2010/08/03/Reasons-to-love-Kinross.aspx

    Sorry if you've read this already, it's a bit old.

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  93. FreeBoundary,
    When I know all that you know. Then, I will be a good options trader.

    Thank you for all that you share here.

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  94. EXK is busting out. I keep thinking EXK is a fad, the go-to stock for a week and it keeps proving me other wise. EXK is for real.

    SK

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  95. Ging

    Oh, and before I go, how 'bout that IMPACT Silver today?

    Oh sorry, that was just too cheap. My dark side coming out again...... Forgive me. Couldn't resist. All in good fun. :D

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  96. @ sp

    Thanks. I am still in it because I am addicted to it. But thanks again.

    @ Eric #1

    The delta is a funtion of option premium and strike price. Keep in mind there are 100 shares to each option contract. That delta determines the number of shares needed to complete the option hedge. Start with that and when Free Boundary returns, and slows down, it should start to make more sense. It is pretty esoteric stuff and I could use a refresher myself so I am looking forward to his nxt post.

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  97. Eric,
    Confession time: I have no gold. :(

    I only hope to someday know the joy you feel.

    :D

    For now.......silver only for this po woman.

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  98. Silver miners with projects in Bolivia will get hit, but restrictions on supply may boost others:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/will-silver-surge-following-nationalization-bolivias-silver-mines-president-evo-morales

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  99. Sure. Kick me when I'm down. I was just drowning in my gold-less sorrow ..then I refresh to get the full force of the salt in the wound otherwise known as IMPACT.

    LOL. .....you should feel reeeeeeal bad about right now. ;)

    (but not really.. ..cause I still got me some SILVERMEX!!!!! ...oh.. ..wait...)

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  100. Nationalization could become a bigger problem as silver continues to rise and governments are broke.

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  101. Ginger

    No gold?? Oh, oh, the humanity!!! (picture Fred Sanford, having a heart attack)

    It always kills me when people say they buy silver because it's cheaper, they can afford it, etc. But then they buy roll after roll of the stuff. By the time you bought 40-50 Silver Eagles, you could have had one old Double Eagle in your hands and had a truly religious experience.

    Just my opinion. It's all good. You'll get there someday. ;D

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  102. @sumo,

    just got finished looking at that ZH article re: silver miners.

    Sounds like a good argument to me:

    1. Silver spot surges bc of a lot of poduction bbeing taken off market

    2. CDE/PAAS loss may be gain for other miners -- particularly HL, which is a American miner as I recall, no?

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  103. Looks like we're starting to LIFTOFF again.
    Grew up in Clear Lake walking distance to JSC :)

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  104. A few notes on some of my current plays:
    1) RVMID is psychotic

    2) Bought AUY may $14 call options on tuesday and down 60% in 3 days, and they are barely moving up even with this surge in gold price... I am planning to hold 'em until earnings announcement in early may... I resigned myself to the potential loss of the entire sum as I was betting on an OTM call on a stock that has underperformed for 3-4 months... when i purchased, I was thinking I had a 30% chance to lose it all and a 70% chance to double my money - i still think i have a decent chance to come out ahead, but I am not putting any more in to back up that belief. I am gonna be stubborn on this one though.

    3) Bought a HL may $9 calls yesterday. I believe HL is incredibly oversold, with a short interest of nearly 10% in mid march (i can't find current short interest). As I previously posted, I think it is reasonable that their earnings could increase by up to 50% quarter over quarter based on realized silver sales prices (last quarter $24, this quarter potentially as high as 36).

    4) Sold CORN may $43 call options today at a 40% loss (could have been 10% loss if I had waited an hour) and used the money to buy SLW may 43 call options this morning. In general SLW has underperformed, mostly I think there is a pretty strong interest (in the options market) in keeping the price under $44 or $45 until april options expiration tomorrow, and I expect that if the silver price remains over 40, that there will be a run-up after friday in SLW before their earnings report in early may.

    5) All of my miners are "underperforming" the past 2 weeks, but mostly from a beatdown the last 4 days, kind of mirroring the stock market in general. I think right now miners are as influenced by the SP500 action as they are by metals prices (not that this is right, or even a correct way to value the stockes, but it is my perception of how the miner prices are trending). On down days for the S&P, miners are mostly down or flat regardless of PM price, on up days for the S&P, miners are mostly up, and moreso if PM prices are also up. I think this is mostly the effect of broad market ETFs, mutual funds, and Algo trading, and less to do with active price suppression (though this may play some small role).

    As a note to lalla and others considering options, please note that 2 of my 4 options plays I listed above I have lost or am looking at losing at least 40% or more of my principal - my SLW calls are up 3% and my HL calls are up 9% - I don't know why I do this...

    MHT

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  105. A little humor or the scary truth about the Japan Nuclear Crisis.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=lpAqiGSp29c

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  106. From what I understand in regards to PHYS/PSLV:

    Remember when Sprott bought up silver for the PSLV ETF? It moved silver about $4 higher (according to a KingWorldNews interview). Sprott is now buying gold for PHYS. That'll for sure push gold higher since the reported $311M should scrape up around 200,000 ounces. Now I don't invest in either fund but I do like when Sprott announces these things. Just can't wait for another buying announcement for PSLV.

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  107. Sp...thanks. Had some TBT early on and decided I was wayyyy too early so I dropped it for now.

    I said half jokingly last Friday night "$44 by Friday?"
    Well, I'm starting to think it might be remotely possible after reading that ZH article about Bolivia and silver etc.
    Not too gutsy of me to say $42 by 10p.m. tonight.
    Tomorrow should be agreat day and I won't be greedy this time round and hold over the weekend unless some news dictates it.
    I'll repeat the obvious...when this gets some momentum it is just going to take right off to $48 and then some quickly.
    Fingers crossed for the first $3 up day next week Friday.

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  108. GATA/ Bill Murphy today.
    Silver shorts are trapped...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpILHQi1k6k&feature=player_embedded

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  109. Eric,
    Yep.. I'll get there. But you do realize that some younguns on the blog have no idea who on earth Fred Sanford is. ..I'm coming Elizabeth...

    I'm enjoying the bit of humor in the comments today. Just seems like a happy skyward silver day. My.Harbl.Testes, I will be reading the rest of your post a bit later today but 'RVMID is psychotic' also made me LOL. So true. It's trying to find itself. Identity crisis in progress.

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  110. freeboundary is making excellent points in his post, i think there are 2 different components of the post (thkfully he gets to break this down in more detail)

    1st part he is talking about the market makers function. this is very important. it must be known to all traders that u are not always buying stock or option from another "seller" but sometimes are buying it from a market maker. the market maker simply is there to provide liquidity and make money on the bid/ask spread. the first part of his post is important to understand. market makers ideally would like people to keep buying and selling things with tons of volatility but ideally would like things to come back to a neutral position for themselves (meaning 0 delta which means they are neither short nor long). if the market maker sells me 1 call option contract and doesn't hedge against it & that particular ticker goes through the roof, they keep losing more and more money, because they are short. this will piss off their bosses as they are not supposed to be short or long really, just even. so what they will do when they sell the option contract is try to buy an even amount of stock shares to compensate for that short, so that they are really net even. the higher probability there is that their position will be assigned, the more shares they will need to buy. in other words, the higher the price goes on that underlying, the higher chance they will lose money at expiration, meaning they will go through even more lengths to buy enough shares so they don't get hosed.

    second part is time decay related. here is an example. silver is $40, let's say. u can buy the may $40 call or the oct $40 call. when SLV goes to $40.50, which call goes up more. the may one. why? because, there is a much higher chance that the may one will expire in the money. whereas oct $40 call...who knows? still a lot of crap can happen between now and then...so it doesn't have quite the magnetic attraction to the underlying as the nearer month expiry.

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  111. This is a great article on disability and entitlement....It's only going to get worse and worse. BTW Turd, I'm fairly liberal and I care about entitlement spending and govt waste probably more than most conservatives. All, please remember that before you bash liberals realize that a lot of us are liberal because we've seen the elite take advantage of so much for so long. We simply choose to go to the other side because we are disgusted with the system. Let's not start a political discussion, I just really hate it when I see mindless liberal bashing. A solid percentage of liberals are very well educated, extremely hard working, and quite aware of the world.

    http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/04/nearly-1-in-20-working-age-americans.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+FundMyMutualFund+%28Fund+my+Mutual+Fund%29

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  112. I wanted to say $42 by 4:00 p.m. today but didn't want to sound cocky but ....wow!
    How cool is this?

    Ginger... Try not to fret about not having any Au right now. You are so far ahead of the general public regarding PM's that by next year you'll look back on this and think "Wow, I was right" and you'll be holding a nice golden eagle when your thinking it.
    You'll see. It will happen for you :-)

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  113. I'm out of silver for now, after profit taking all the way to 41.82. Will buy on dip below $40 or chase prices again if it goes above $42.

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  114. Hope we get a FUEM (Evo Morales) formation soon on SIL...

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  115. Well, I guess these higher prices means that BM & Co. really don't care about the Saudis after all. And I was all set to buy in at 32.

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  116. KC...no offense but both parties suck and are the reason we are in the situation we are now in.

    Both parties have their "surface" strength and priorities but both of them have just wrecked this country slowly and gradually. They are both poison and out of touch even if they seem to be genuine and play at your fears and heart strings.

    I'm Independent because I like the label and thats how I want to view myself but I still only get to choose between the both of them for the most part. Great choices!

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  117. Shoot, maybe I'm going crazy, I'm so angry silver miners are lagging, that I'm buying SIL May 31 calls...

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  118. @ DPH. I totally agree. truthfully, I'm basically independent as well

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  119. DPHaze,
    You are right. The name of the game is just to keep on keeping on and accumulating the best that any of us can. For now.. silver all the way! :] ...and I consider being able to accumulate that a very huge blessing!

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  120. Frightened by Tungstenman and the top callers? A little bit... bought some puts, sold a little bit, postponed a purchase of physical. But much less affected than I would have been if not for tfmetalsreport.

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  121. Looks like I'm finally better off with AGQ than with the miners.

    I've decided not to mingle with the mining business. I don't have the time to read up on all the companies and I just can't allow myself to get into them without DYODD.

    Besides, I find them a confusing bunch. One day silver does little, miners jump 10%, next day silver jumps, some miners are just flat, some even red.

    Funny thing with AGQ is that it's been tracking silver even better than 200%; usually ETF's are below their targeted tracking target.

    Still...those times that miners make 10%+ are just extremely tempting... but I guess that's just a different game, and I've also seen 'em go 10% down easily. Leveraged silver is volatile enough for me.

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  122. And BTW...The Libs in charge are part of that elite even if they claim to be and you don't want to believe it.

    Did anyone catch Pelosi's quote yesterday saying "...election results are way overblown!"

    Really? H'mmm. Drop another hit of acid Nancy.
    The Repukes like a strong military and thats about all I like about them...period.
    They all suck. Listen to Judge Andrew Napolitano some night on FOXBusiness news and you'll hear what our founding fathers thought of entitlement Govt.
    I do believe some people need help and we shouldn't be totally heartless but it just keeps getting broader and broader etc.
    FDR started the ball rolling thats for sure.
    Remember, I said both parties suck, not just one.

    Ok, enough of that...silver keeps going up...yeah!

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  123. Sorry, that sounded and looked angry but the place this country is at totally pisses me off and I just wish someone, somewhere could actually combat what seems to be out of control.

    I secretly wish I had some sort of clout or platform to get the ball rolling, but who am I compared to "them".
    A nobody, who is now looking out for his best interests to prepare for the hardtimes that are coming.

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  124. Jeez...I just finished the last thread and now I'm only behind 115 posts....thinking about taking a speed reading course if I can find the time...

    @Harold
    My mom bought MS 64 Saints in 2005 and was charged $900 per coin when spot was around $450. She sold them last month, (more than 5 years later) with an 85% profit. Meanwhile spot increased around 400%. The person she bought them from tried to say what a great buy they were! Well, there were better buys, had we known Eric#1! Peter Schiff says those coins are going to bullion value in the days ahead. Hope this helps.

    Eric#1 you are amazing in your knowledge and very correct!

    @afrum ..thank you for posting Silver WarCry. I will use it to educate my children and neice & nephew, as the music was an added experience and just 'perfect' for that video!

    @vincent...I didn't know Stella Concepts was Spotmex! I received the email also, and now I'm more intersted than ever in checking them out. I'm tired of getting 'screwed' by all these dealers and paying way too much for things. Why when we can buy and sell to each other for spot!
    Makes sense to me.

    @DPH...I hate it when others say 'ohhh, you so lucky'...they just don't know the zillion of hours we devote to Turdsville, or the Golden Jackass, JS Mineset, Trader Dan, etc etc etc trying to educate ourself and do the right thing...but you said it best and I must repeat it for others that may have missed it, if you don't mind...

    'Luck is where intelligence awareness and opportunity meet up and having the guts to recgonize and act on it' by DarkPurpleHaze

    Great Stuff Everyone!

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  125. @ginger

    if you are starting out trading options, the one piece of advice I have been told by multiple traders is...

    To minimize the time decay loss (especially on OTM options), plan on selling your option by approximately halfway from purchase date to expiration.

    This is not a hard and fast rule, but remember it is always better to be selling at a 20-30% loss than at a 80-100% loss.

    For example, I have some July call options on SLV and GLD, and I plan to sell by late May. I have some May call options noted in my post above which I plan to sell before earnings reports if there is a satisfactory run-up, or just after earnings if I have to wait that long. But I definitely want out of them before the final week. It's just too pricey to be wrong the last two weeks of options near the money on something as volatiles as the price of silver or a miner. Remember the goal is not to lose (too much) money.

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  126. @My.Harbl.Testes

    Sorry to read that... really.

    I use GLD / SLV options as 90+ percent of my trades as a direct reflection of the gold/silver price action. I realize everyone hates the stocks, lack of metals, et al. But it is a pure price play.

    Sold most holdings Monday AM, and Tuesday afternoon had layered cheapo bids in for different spreads, and issues in both. All but one hit - missed by .02

    All up big today! 5 figure day and thanks Turd for the guidance on directions!!!

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  127. There is something very wrong here, much bigger than most of us can imagine. The price action in the metals are not just speaking to us, they are screaming at us!

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  128. The Turd lives in a district with a freshman republican congressperson. If this person votes "yay" on this sham budget "deal", I believe I will re-join the repub party and oppose the person in the 2012 primary.
    I say I "believe" I will only because I'm not sure if I will have the time to commit to the process. I certainly do have the inclination, however, and it only requires a one-time, $1500 fee to place yourself as a primary candidate.
    I'll keep you posted.

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  129. Certain as the summer grass is green, the EE are in no position to challenge 41.93 double top in silver. Too busy sweeping empty silver vaults for dust to make deliveries they never will!! Weekend stampede for naked short covering an added extra.

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  130. dd: the squeeze of the May delivery is beginning to catch real momentum.

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  131. Thanks Salud...The speed reading comment made me laugh. Needed that right about then.

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  132. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  133. I've been sitting here all day watching AGQ, saying "I'll buy on the dip, I'll buy on the dip".......but never a dip.....sigh.

    But my core stuff is all up, so it's all good.

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  134. I just talked to my futures broker, he tried to charge me $135 per trade, after I called him he lowered it to $40 right away. Never hurts to ask right? Brokers want to make money too, but don't let them eat up your profits or convince you to churn your account if its not needed. Just wanted to share in the hopes it helps others here. Also they said I could be what's called self directed, which means I do everything myself with the web interface, but for an extra 20 it was worth it for me to be able to call someone and ask questions.

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  135. Turd, you commit, and I will post the $1500 fee with pleasure.

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  136. Turd...wow...do it if you can. How cool!

    They just passed the budget through the Senate as I write.

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  137. Wow, y'all are hardcore round-the-clockers! I don't understand all the trading lingo but I am fascinated by it. Ginger, I like that you're posting more. Maybe one day when I "grow up" from buying coins I'll take baby steps into trading. I can't believe I just said that - you've all intrigued me.

    But first things first. Eric, why are sovereigns your favorite?

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  138. turd for president! you'll have my vote.

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  139. SilverBleve, I'm not sure how much service you're getting for $40. I'm with Global Futures, I don't ask for much service, I pay $3 to get in/out. It is self-dierected. And that is not the cheapest. You can get cheaper.

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  140. Looking forward to watching the bids chase the break above $42...

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  141. Many screaming now about naked shorts.
    Gata and others calling attention to trapped shorts.
    Others speaking of covering monkeys shorts.(last thread??)
    Rumors of Blythe and Jamie crapping their shorts.

    YOU SCREAM, I SCREAM, WE ALL SCREAM IN BLYTHE'S DREAMS. DO YOU HEAR US BLYTHE?

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  142. "So, are you glad that you found this site?"

    Just a gentle (self) reminder -- FEED THE TURD

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  143. Here is an interesting article on the Libya situation. If anyone would be interested, it would be the readers here, readers who don't blindly follow the herd of MSM pundits. Enjoy.


    Libya - The DC/NATO Agenda
    And The Next Great War
    KINGSTON, NY, 4 April 2011 — In the 1930s the US, Great Britain, and the Netherlands set a course for World War II in the Pacific by conspiring against Japan. The three governments seized Japan’s bank accounts in their countries that Japan used to pay for imports and cut Japan off from oil, rubber, tin, iron and other vital materials. Was Pearl Harbor, Japan’s response?

    Now Washington and its NATO puppets are employing the same strategy against China.

    Protests in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, and Yemen arose from the people protesting against Washington’s tyrannical puppet governments. However, the protests against Gaddafi, who is not a Western puppet, appear to have been organized by the CIA in the eastern part of Libya where the oil is and where China has substantial energy investments.

    Read the rest of the article here:

    http://app.bronto.com/public/?q=preview_message&fn=Link&t=1&ssid=12927&id=hhbp051wkx5p6lvtk13a8kyfjn9uv&id2=dlawh1uxl8ssz12fp5qpymd9rap9v&subscriber_id=btgtyqovboydnwpnbogwnfvmrtegbje&messageversion_id=blymnowbpksyohgnjeyhumwjoftobbj&delivery_id=bdhplqfxqigrebcidnvaakvxrrdrbdd&tid=3.Mn8.BhwwWQ.CCuj.JaGP..NXVz.b..s.ASWs.a.TZuQ4A.TZutAA.DlEw_g

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  144. silverbleve:

    i pay $3.50 in and $3.50 out. $40 is a ton for 1 contract...r u sure that is correct?

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  145. Interactive Brokers -- $2.25 per contract each way.

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  146. Titus Andronicus wow really? I went with Lind-Waldo because Turd recommended them way back when I first found this site. Other then getting raped on commission I've been happy with them. I want to give the Turd some kind of referral credit but I can't bring myself to say 'turd sent me'. When I was signing up they asked how I heard about them and I said it was a current customer and they asked for a name, I said uh.. Ferguson? Sorry Turd I'll make it up to you I promise:) $3 sounds pretty sweet I'm going to look into it.

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  147. OptionsHouse 5 for $5 or $8.50 +0.15 per contract. Changeable once per day!

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  148. @dd:

    IB is the cheapest by far, but damn i hate the interface! i have stuck with tos for a while now for that reason alone, but i'm sure it has cost me a few grand a year in that decision!

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  149. @KC, @DPH, @TF -
    I liken our two current political parties to coke and pepsi. they have different names, different packaging, and different advertising campaigns targeted at slightly different demographics, but they contain almost exactly the same ingredients, in a blind taste test noone can tell them apart, and they both rot your teeth...

    I am progressive minded, and i don't mind taxes, but i want the effing government to spend my money in a way that makes me proud, not in a way that makes me vomit, and BOTH parties spend money in ways that make me wretch.

    MHT

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  150. Turd,
    You run and I'll support your campaign.
    I used to be more involved with politics, but I've come to the conclusion that it does not matter anymore. I think the car is too far over the cliff.

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  151. If I believed politics could save our country I wouldn't be buying silver. In fact, POLITICS IS WHY I buy silver.

    In much the same way the phrase, "The love of money is the root of all evil" is often misquoted, I believe fiat is not the problem but it's political control which is.

    Screaming "Fire!" doesn't extinguish a fire and politics doesn't extinguish debt, only real money can do that.

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  152. @ dd, SP
    Yes interactive brokers is the best, and I also HATE the interface. $40 a commission will eat you up over time. I'd ask as many questions as possible while you pay full service price and then plan on migrating to a cheaper broker. It is easy to make mistakes in the futures markets that cost you big $$$, but If you plan of trading just a few instruments, you catch on to them fairly quick.

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  153. Regarding CDE & Bolivia's threat to take mines over. (From Yahoo message bd - thread Re: Coeur mine not subject to expropriation?)

    "Coeur has a solid agreement with the Bolivian Government , with both their House of Representatives and their Senate and signed by Eva Morales their President .
    Bolivia is our 50/50 partner in profits .
    I have heard many times Coeur did it right and is a very reponsible and respected mining company .
    Not a bad deal for Bolivia or Coeur .
    Coeur does the safe mining and paying all the Boiivian miners on a constant basis .
    Takes care of business in every way and splits the money .
    A good deal for the workers and the Bolivan Government .
    When the individual itinerant miners were doing it themselves they were doing a great job of killing one another with their making a swiss cheese mountain .
    Coeur taught them safe mining and has very responsive to the communities social needs."

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  154. Funny..weren't we just talking about this type of thing yesterday...from ZH

    "Will Silver Surge Following The Nationalization Of Bolivia's Silver Mines By Embattled President Evo Morales?"

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  155. So close I can almost smell $42...and she smells like roses!

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  156. @justmy02

    i just joined optionshouse this week and am waiting for my 2nd ACH transfer. they are by far the cheapest rates for stock option trading that I can find, and I'm moving options trading out of tdameritrade to optionshouse. I still like tda for its web portal for researching stocks and shit - i don't intuitively get the platforms built for day traders. as far as the prices being discussed above, i think others may be talking about futures contract pricing, and I don't know what those cost on optionshouse or tda...

    also, in regards to my earlier post and your response, i also carry may and july SLV and GLD options purchased 2 weeks ago, which overall since their purchase have me comfortably up, despite the losses in CORN and potential loss in AUY. just giving perspective to those who are looking at trading options that money can disappear way faster with options than with stocks. in the long term, i believe call options on SLV and GLD are a good way for me to make money, but the risk for loss is so high, i would prefer newbies take a properly cautious approach rather than think its easy to make a 5 digit profit in a day.

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  157. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  158. Want a really good laugh? Read this:

    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2011/04/14/gold-is-dead-long-live-the-commodity-trade/?mod=yahoo_hs

    I don't think us PM bulls are the ones who are arrogant. Gotta love/hate the MSM...

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  159. I FED THE TURD!

    Should make T-shirts that say that!!!

    Thanks Turd for all you do!

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  160. Salud - I am with you - tried to catch up on the old thread, get to the new thread and there were 150 posts! I have tried to skim - great conversation.

    Eric - Every time I think I might be understanding options, someone posts a comment like Free Boundary and I simply don't get it. Or the 3-ticker options expiry which afrum explained so clearly. Unfortunately the gold company you posted will not ship outside the States. I think I need to plan a holiday in upper New York State very soon - I am totally jealous of the bags of silver you guys can buy too.

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  161. Turd,
    I just have to say that your analysis and commentary has something most of the other PM blogs are missing. Too many people rely solely on TA, which I think is limiting and often misleading. What I think you have that others don't is great instincts and no fear about putting your views out there. When I say instincts I mean natural intuitive power. Now some people think intuition is an irrational function of our brains, but I believe the exact opposite. I think intuition is the result of our brains unconsciously processing a multitude of information culled from our past experiences and pattern recognition and coming up with rational conclusions. Combine that with your conscious analytical abilities and your acquired knowledge in this field and you have a super processor between your ears. Thanks for sharing it with us.

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  162. And Ginger - please keep posting about your options experiment. I think by keeping your buys out a few months so you don't have to worry about expiry yet is a very good idea.

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  163. Turd, after all this perfect storm passed (if it is) and maybe this site won't exist anymore you will always remembered and people will talk about a guy, a Turd, that was honest in a dishonest world, that guided many to not fall apart like the world there were in....you will a legend!...gracias a lot Mr. Turd.

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  164. So will this budget bill hurt PM prices then as some are implying?

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  165. I am leveraged with the silver (and gold) price(a trading vehicle from the Royal Bank of Scotland), that's my trading strategy. If I trade right, I am able to buy another 1000 oz of silver when the silver price reaches around $50 (that is when at that level there is still silver available:).
    It is a strong uptrend, and to stay with it is not so straightforward. Considering I closed my positions a few times at a loss and had to buy them at a higher price back. Appearantly I am one of those sheep, whose wealth JPM and GS prey on. Glad I stepped in again this morning (European time); dips are not to close ones positions but to add to them. Seems easy, appearantly not so for a sheep, but thanks to this website too I am learning.
    Earlier this week the raids by JPM had more impact than last week, and who knows what more tricks they have in store to scare the sheep, or crash the market since that is perhaps their last resort.

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  166. We are close to $42 for Ag ... here kitty kitty ...

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  167. SAC.TO (south american silver corp) has really been trashed today! 10x the usual volume.. -21%... Hmmzzz... They say never catch a falling knife..

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  168. Here we go folks...fasten your seatbelt.

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  169. Hey Prize Fighter

    :)

    I agree with you on that the c&h formation has to be long time, however I think you're not looking at the c&h Im looking at.

    This one (in silver) -although it's still very short-, has been forming all week long.

    Check from April 8th until NOW.

    We are about to close the CUP, and if everythings works out, we'll see the handle today in the afterhours market and somewhere around the opening of Australian markets / Asian.

    By tomorrow morning we'll be flying skyhigh!

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  170. Here we go indeed. The shorts are so effing scared right now, when the 42 capit happens, it'll be a blast through, you can see it just building and building and building...

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  171. You can hear a pin drop. Nobody's breathing. Hovering @ 41.985 - 42.005. Will the buy stops be triggered?

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  172. FWI (@Ginger & others)

    In case you didn't know, there is a NATGAS ETF (GAZ). I know virtually nothing about it, but it looks to have hit a bottom around 3/1 and may be headed upwards now as oil prices rise. Currently trading around $8.50

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  173. It a strange feeling to scalp at $42 level. Congrats comrades! 42$

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  174. Question on futures option commisions...

    I'm paying about $26 each way per contract for everything, that commission fees etc...
    I'm using Farrfinancial with their firetip software. Easy to use.

    What are others paying for futures options trading?
    With whom?

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  175. I'm showing high .992 on netdania. We got 42 somewhere else?

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  176. Thanks $41, it's been fun.


    Buh Bye now. :)

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  177. J. E. said...

    LOL - First day this week I won't be eating Cup a Noodles from the survival pantry. (I force myself on down days) May have to try the canned roast beef from Costco in celebration today. Anyone tried it?

    Yes, and it is delicious. Cook some boccoli, mix it with the roast beef (juice and all), melt a little swiss on top and serve over a slice of bread. Excellent stuff!

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  178. Wow, remember oh so not long ago we were sweating $37?

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  179. PSLV +6.2% today. That's truly scary.

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  180. SAC has been down 3 days in a row, looks cheap unless something fundamentally wrong has developed?

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  181. Anyone looking for forex trading especially Ont. Canadain residents I don't advise Oanda. Under regulations you can only leverage 28x on XAG or XAU. Besides that its good and will keep my account open for time being.

    But now I have found AVAFX and they allow you to trade everything with larger leverage. Oil, wheat, corn, silver, and stock indexes even!

    Just made my first deposit today. Will let you guys know how it goes. Up 40% of investment at oanda just imagine what that would of been leveraged 500x. WooHoo

    Will definitly be feeding turd a decent amount soon.

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  182. I NOW HAVE A PRINT OF 42.01 ON THE MAY SILVER!!!!!!!!!

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  183. ssk,

    I wasn't making any kind of value judgement at all, just thinking back over personal experience. That '8o's experience also included the '87 crash.. my only point really was that sitting tight through a bull would have been a much better strategy for me and I've applied that learning in this bull market. I also sat through the '08 pullback in miners but it wasn't so bad as I'd establsihed most of my positions in '02-'03--gold,tre,gg,rgld were and are my cornerstones.

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  184. w00t! $42!!

    if i only bought more at $20...

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  185. I am holding my breath.
    I bet the buy stops are set at 42.05 or a bit higher.

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  186. I am more interested, whether we will we see $40 again?

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  187. Just... one... more... push...

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  188. What a great feeling. Can't wait to see the action going forward.

    Can't help but think that CDE was a great buy at it low today. I'll be following it just to see how it plays out from this point on.
    Could this be a " sell on the rumor and buy on the news?" type thing. A reversal of the normal tendency. I'm a contrarian of sorts, just depends on the situation but you have to at least consider it.
    We'll see.

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