http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/another-happy-tuesday.html
I doubt that today will be a really happy Tuesday simply because we are close to the target areas where buying interest will wane. However, given all of the Cartel activity late last week, it is doubtful that they will want to significantly add to positions today. Though the metals have taken quite a beating over the last 45 minutes, I'm still looking for one more push toward 1520 this week. I still expect to see silver with a 39 handle, too.
The pain-in-the-neck last night was the 25% margin hike in crude. As you know, I do not believe in coincidences when it comes to these bs manipulated markets. The 10% drop that crude suffered last week was undoubtedly brought upon by news of this hike being leaked. Otherwise wouldn't crude be down 10% today, instead? Additionally, I'm sure there's no connection between O'bottom's declared "War on Speculators" and the margin hike. None, whatsoever. As I've stated many times before...Martha Stewart can get a year in the hole for trading a couple hundred shares of stock on "insider" info but these bastards fleece and manipulate thousands of people everyday and your public "servants" like Chilton and Gensler calmly look away. An absolute and total sham. As I type, I see that gold is now down to 1507, off about $10 in 45 minutes. Maybe the crooks are raising margins on it later today? We'll see. Maybe the push to 1519 overnight was as close to 1520 as we're going to get.
On a lighter note, Jim Willie sent me the lyrics to a rap "song" he's written. I think in the rankings of The Great White Rappers, he falls somewhere between Eminem and Vanilla Ice. I'll let you be the judge. (Be sure to get a little rhythm going in your head before you try this at home.)
WILLIE RAP SONG
Housing market still feels the screws
Bank owned homes are buried with blues
The Economy stuck in toxic ooze
Job Growth is such a ruse ... ooo aaa ooo aaa
Ben Bernanke is looking confused
Central banks have no clues
USDollar is still abused
Sovereign debt is such a ruse ... ooo aaa ooo aaa
Expect more Japanese Yen rescues
QE3 is what they will choose
Purchasing power is sure to lose
Fiat money is such a ruse... ooo aaa ooo aaa
Negative home equity endless, turn to booze
No retirement as workers sing the blues
Big Banks get the money, people the screws
Change never came, all just a ruse... ooo aaa ooo aaa
Bin Laden dead is to confuse
Propaganda is the only news
In the end, expect blame in Moslem spews
The War on Terrorism is such a ruse ... ooo aaa ooo aaa
Soon to crumble, the Ruling Elite continues
Hang the Big Bankers without their shoes
Have a great day. TF
ps Your "one-trick turd" forgot to add this link. Thought it was pretty good.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/false-myths-gold-silver-bulls-promoted-gold-silver-bears
First.
ReplyDeletehows this for a rap:
ReplyDelete"I buy high and sell low.
Goddamnit."
shit.
@Petr
ReplyDeleteBreaking 38 may turn out to be a false negative, but not worth the risk. We're also a little toppy for this move too.
Thinking of a Russell 2000 short play here?...Hmm
ReplyDeleteI am looking at SPY September Puts.
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts?
Snoopy
So going into 9:30, XAG sits right about at 4pm yesterday. XAU is 3 bucks under. Maybe opening NY funds under was the goal??
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI prefer limericks:
ReplyDeleteThere once was a lady named Blythe,
Who caused PM buyers much strife,
As she showed naked shorts,
She enjoyed favorite sports,
Making leveraged longs catch a knife.
so is today sideline tuesday???
ReplyDeleteFast on the downside, fast on the upside - that's the way to shake out the leveraged specs, buy back your shorts, make a lot of short term profits, and keep everyone else from going in again at the lows.
ReplyDeleteFor last week's smackdown about 1000 tonnes of SLV silver and about 3-5 times the usual volume on the COMEX and GLOBEX was needed - more for 1 week than for the whole of winter of 2008 to spring of 2009 put together.
Backwardation still at 2$ for the farthest out contract.
Buy silver.
Word.
ReplyDeleteraged: Yes. The risk:reward is about 3:1 so I'm staying away until next week.
ReplyDelete"Silverman said...
ReplyDeleteWhat if HKMEX becomes another COMEX?"
True. Asians have no interest to suppress PM prices to make their currency look better. But they DO want to buy the physical while it is still cheap. Another price suppression mechanism would be in their best interest.
@ Jimmy
ReplyDeleteHeh, welcome to the club! I think everyone who has invested any money at all has, at some point, done the absolute opposite of what should have been done. All the mantras such as 'let your winners run' and 'cut your losses early', 'don't fight the tape', and whatever, all seem perfectly fine, up until the point you actually have to BUY, or SELL. I've had moments when all I've read turns to mush and I start behaving like an absolute idiot. Fear and Greed then firmly hold the steering wheel of my HMS Portfolio, up until I crash against the cliffs of Negative Percentages in the Seas of Despair and Wishful Thinking, just off the Coast of Bankruptcy.
It's probably been one of my best experiences yet. I don't learn stuff by doing it right, that just inflates my ego and powers my hubris. I learn by being an idiot, making mistakes, and trying again with different tactics.
@Fleve
ReplyDeleteRight on. As long as you learn and don't walk away, the lessons cost about what you'd expect to pay somebody else to teach you.
Fleve
ReplyDeleteamen
It looks like the short covering rally is starting to run out of steam.....
ReplyDelete@JNG
ReplyDeleteWe may be seeing the last of it right now 37.80-38.25.
re: Lessons
ReplyDeleteTwo biggies...
1. It not what you left on the table, it's what you took home that counts.
2. Know when to cut a loser, like a cheating girl, seeya!
My XAG chart has been littered with Dojis since Asian morning. Whole lot of unsure people out there I'd say.
ReplyDeletethanks turd!!!!
ReplyDeleteJust like clock work the opening of the CRIMEX sees the price of PMs fall. As if the regulators care.....
ReplyDeletei see dollar going up a little
ReplyDelete@JoeKa
ReplyDeleteMe included. Looking like I'll be reading the rest of the day, flat right now, don't need the stress...
We all know how manipulated the the market is and how obvious it is.
ReplyDeleteHow the F&#! can the U.S Attorney General or Congress (Ahem..Ron Paul, where are you?)or any other politician with clout NOT have the kahoonies to at least look into it and have some hearings or investigation?
This is a historical and obvious manipulation and more then likely a massive criminal conspiracy unprecedented in U.S. history and they do ....nothing!
It's totally pissing me off to resign myself to the fact that our laws and leaders are a legal crime syndicate protecteed by laws they have created and selectively enforced or ignored when it serves their purposes.
When does it end?
And who might the white knight be? Is there one?
Bank of America To Start Charging 30% On Credit Cards
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/bank-of-america-to-start-charging-30-on-credit-cards-2011-5#ixzz1LxPNRj6D
@Shill
ReplyDeleteThat BOA headline reads to me expectation of increased late payments/delinquencies. Jacking rate allows them to reclaim their principle faster.
So in light of JS Kim's article...if these raids are so predictable, how do we predict them?
ReplyDeleteanyone else notice the "flash" in WTI 1-minute netdania chart at 9:41?
ReplyDeleteI guess I'm looking for explication: how could it "close" 9:41 at 102.20 and then "open" 9:42 101.11?
Shouldn't the chart register the drop?
Mehh.
In addition to what Pailin has said, what I see/saw is lower highs being attained on the rebound.
ReplyDeleteHard to post timely on trading becasue sord ver takes so long
Turd,
ReplyDeleteFollowing your blog for several months now as one of the best blogs on PM’s around.
Reading on your blog about the Bangsters and their criminal relatives raises THE ultimate question:
Can we ever win the war against these Bangsters to accomplish a fair silver price?
I mean: These Bangsters have (through the FED) unlimited resources. They can short at any given time and price driving the price to any level they want. At that moment they can close their positions and make a bucketload of money. Then it is to us (the small private investor) to ‘repair’ the price again to fair-value. But when the price is closing in to fair-value the Bangsters step in again with a massive amount of shorts driving the price down and make another bucketload of money. And they can do so again and again.
Where am I wrong in this scenario and does that mean that sometime in the near future there will be a fair price of silver?
All the best and with kind regards,
Henk (The Netherlands, Europe)
30% interest is considered absurd interest and is why america is in such debt and dire straights. Think about compound interest if you started an account with 1 thousand dollars that got 30% interest every year and with coumpound interest in 5 years would be 3712.93 .......try 10-20 years and this is why americe is so debt ridden they charge you 30% and give you .000001 %
ReplyDeleteI doubt if BOA or any of them will ever reclaim their "principles."
ReplyDeleteok i am screwed i have 8K tied up in underwater options and $890 cash..
ReplyDeletewhats a safe play i can do everyday to start making some of this back?
Short ZSL on a dip in silver?
ReplyDeleteI was just now doing some performance chart comparisons and noticed the short silver ETF ZSL has a TON of slippage built into it. That is, if silver just meandered sideways from now on, ZSL would be in a steady trajectory to zero. If you go back to a time when silver was a particular price a month or two ago, and find the same silver price a few weeks later, ZSL is much lower.
So, when we get a good dip in silver, why not SHORT ZSL? Somebody tell me, why that wouldn't that be a good play? Obviously you would want to pick a good entry.
Are we anticipating a gold raid in the near future?
ReplyDeleteWaffen, there is no free lunch, and there is no SAFE way to trade.
ReplyDelete@OC15
ReplyDeleteJust follow this blog. Almost every raid, save the two Nostradumbass posts, have been called by our benefactor here. The blog exists because of the predictability of raids. Otherwise we could all just go long and hold on fundamentals until the day before the end of the Keynesian experiment.
@Snoopy
ReplyDeleteThats where I am. Spy puts along with DIA, TM, GM, BAC, JPM, and even AAPL all short at the moment.
jeff.. i get that. I need to start playing the down side, so far I have only focused on the upside.
ReplyDeletea lot more nervous about puts then calls I guess
Snoopy,
ReplyDeleteI try to by closer term puts since I expect any decline to be dramatic, so I hope to make money on the volatility of the move rather than hitting the strike. As far out as September, you might be overpaying for premium, especially given the determination to keep the index up.
I overpaid in the past betting against SPY and it burned me. It's like standing in front of a steamroller. For insurance this month I bought rather cheap June puts on the momo stocks rather than the index, for example LULU and basically the whole basket of Robot Trader's favorites.
It sure is convenient that we have a pipeline leak, at the same time the margins are raised on oil, all orchestrated at the beginning of summer.. So, reduced supply + increased demand = a sell off in crude and wti. WTF?
ReplyDeleteLooks like big oil is learning some lessons from the bullion banks.
Consumers and Investors Seek Protection With Guns and Gold
ReplyDeletehttp://dailyreckoning.com/consumers-and-investors-seek-protection-with-guns-and-gold/
I think I put to much into Evils comments :).
ReplyDeleteThis stock market needs a pull back IMO. And have been short on it for awhile. yes losing except bank stocks BAC JPM
J,
ReplyDeleteETF decay at work. I haven't tried shorting it but other people I've read who have discussed the issue say that ZSL is difficult to borrow presumably because everybody else has the same idea.
since this "bubble burst" was an orchastrated sell off, why are we so certain their will be a double bottom?
ReplyDeleteThe buyers know it was orchastrated so this is not normal market conditions so why expect them?
Waffen, I hear you, lots of people got burnt with this drop by not having proper hedges in place. It does cost, but only if things go smoothly and your portfolio goes up.
ReplyDeleteHow far underwater are your calls and when do they expire?
"FIRST" !!
ReplyDeleteNot sure what that means but it seems to have great significance on this board, so I thought I'd throw it in for good measure.
Maybe it has something to do with "the first shall be last; and the last shall be first"?
Hahahahaha!
Over and out ... I'm going for breakfast.
It's 08:32 in sunny Alberta!
Deutsche Bank Sees Gold Rising as High as $2,000 as George Soros Pares Bet
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-10/deutsche-bank-sees-gold-rising-as-high-as-2-000-as-george-soros-pares-bet.html
Place your bets
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSo anyway, this blog is missing quite a few regular posters since last week.
ReplyDeleteMy most sincere sympathies to anyone who got wiped out. I think there was just no way to see this coming.. I mean, at least in this kind of timeframe.
Obviously some people got wiped out, obviously some were making or are still making a lot of money - but let this be a lesson to you, trading can go either way. ESPECIALLY if you have no clear picture of the market in your head and you don't know EXACTLY what you're doing (of course nobody knows everything, but you got to have your facts/market data, your set of probabilities, and backup plans), then better stay very light when trading and NEVER trade with money that you require for living, OR risk losing so much it could endanger the funds you need for living.
Don't get stupid or greedy and fuel the EE's short term profits.
And IF YOU KNOW YOU'RE not made for this, then please, for your own sake, stay the fuck out. Trading is not for everybody, but everybody has his/her talents and you can make a lot of money in whatever area you're good in.
this is the bad one, I bought in the thursday before the downturn, hung onto it expecting a chinese bump (oops they were on vacation)
ReplyDeleteJun 11 $55 bought at 1.27 its at .16 right now (down 5k)
these I got when we thought the bottom was $42
I am not too worried about these
July 11 $50 got at .91 (now .57) down 300
Oct 11 $55 got at 1.2 (now .89) down 35
"Not sure what that means but it seems to have great significance on this board, so I thought I'd throw it in for good measure."
ReplyDeleteAssuming you're not being sarcastic, it's to do with the inordinate prestige, respect and grace that one receives in being the first to post in a thread.
Waffen....I'm in the exact same underwater boat as yourself.
ReplyDeleteHaving patience and letting the market recover over the next 2-6 weeks would be the best investment you could make IMO.
Doesn't cost a thing except your patience and knowledge. The PM's and your options will recover.
I feel your frustration.
Netdania USDX chart with a flagpole on the 8M chart....suggests to me that the USDX could start to take another dive. But, the news TV shows keep mouthing off about Greek default and S&P cutting Greek debt to junk status.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, the Netdania silver chart is also looking like a french curve that is getting set to break down or up.
I bailed out of position yesterday thinking the top was going to hit today but so far, not much selling is showing up.
I don't know TF...if the Greek get bailed out and the Euro actually builds strength due to the unity in Europe, the USDX could take a dump and silver could move out to the top side.
Undoubtedly if this occurs, the US will start spinning off about this-and-that and hand waving to get people to look the other way.
But, clearly this PM game is afoot.
And, clearly the asian BOS is done with the POS trading at COMEX.
COMEX is running out of time.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThe mainstream is starting to agree that things look bleak, but there's NO mention of investing in precious metals as a strategy. Interesting.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.moneyandmarkets.com/doomsday-scenario-2-44533?FIELD9=1
Also worth reading just for the "doomsday" letter Tim Geithner wrote.
Bank of China (Hong Kong) with equivalent HKD price for silver in USD $40+ today.
ReplyDeleteAs Markus noted, if your not trading, there is always Physical, which is a sit and hold situation, less stress. Buy it and toss it in your favorite hiding spot and forget it.
ReplyDeleteJust tossing that out there.
Here is another example of really bad ETF decay, the natural gas long fund UNG. Load this comparison chart of the ETF and the underlying and move the slider to the maximum time scale:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.html?$natgas,ung
That thing is designed to just steal people's money, LOL!
"Assuming you're not being sarcastic, it's to do with the inordinate prestige, respect and grace that one receives in being the first to post in a thread."
ReplyDeleteLet me finish that statement for you. -
Usually awarded to the person who doesn't take the time to read the post and jumps straight to the comments with the intent of wasting time and space.
There, that's better.
So, anyone got into sugar last time I mentioned it? It's gone up almost 10% since last friday. Wish I had had some dry powder left back then; would've bought with both hands. Pity my cash is still in transit.
ReplyDeleteAnother thing to look for, if anyone is interested in other commodities apart from silver, would be lumber. It's been finding support at about 220, and if it doesn't reverse there, should do so later at about 180-200.
I know this is mainly a silver/gold board, but I kinda liked all the commodity outlooks Turd did a while back. There are a lot of opportunities out there and, if silver is in a 'stay on the sideline' kinda thing for a while, it's always nice to park your money in another elevator.
just placed an order for AGQ May 21 2011 215.0 Put. Last was 16 but not sure I will get it.
ReplyDelete@J,
ReplyDeleteUNG collected some tuition $$ from me at the school of hard knocks.
Lesson learned; don't invest in what you don't fully understand. I'm better now and more thorough at DD.
Waffen, yes, that June call is a rough one. I personally doubt you will make your money back on it, but the trade is made and do the best thing right now. You have a little bit of time to gain some of it back. If you are bullish, I'd hold like Haze suggested. Like I said before, going forward, I'd be sure to have proper hedges in place. One idea is to have a designated long/short ratio with your options. In other words, purchase 10 call contracts and 5 put contracts. Just one idea, there are MANY more people better suited for specific strategy than myself.
ReplyDeleteFleve...I was watching sugar and lumber too, but a little scared about lumber since housing is in the tanks. Just had property logged and we didn't get much for lumber. Still tempted though.
ReplyDeletethis explains the first phenomenon
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciG-Xs7mBwU
Looks like Commerce Resources is shaping up to be my star performer for the day. UP 8.1% on nice volume.
ReplyDeleteMy only open forex position is short POSX. Bought it yesterday and keeping it for awhile. I think calvin's bounce is done.
ReplyDeleteYesterday having the news admit to lying about Greece was to try to help POSX keep some momentum IMHO. Didn't work to good. Now any positive news from the EU and POSX may feel the effect
Interesting article
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-65-trillion-lost-one-house-time
If you could follow my thought process and let me know what you think based on this paragraph.
Put another way: a house purchased in 1996 for $100,000 has to be worth $142,000 today just to keep up with inflation. Factoring in transactions costs, then the house would have to be sold for roughly $152,000 for the owner to extract $142,000--the sum needed to simply maintain purchasing power.
In other words, a house that rose 50% over the past 15 years has simply kept pace with inflation. The nominal "gain" is utterly illusory.
If you took the same 100,000 and put it in precious metals from 1996. Jan 1995 av price around 5.5. about 18,000 ounces of silver that equals almost 700,000 today. I guess if you rented the same house from 1996-today you might be a little better off.
I really wonder about this concept as if someone sold their house a couple years ago and bought PMs, and has been renting since this time.
ETF decay is so bad that for a number of 1x bull/bear pairs, it has been shown that you can make money by shorting both. Until an exogenous event happens and volatility erupts and you get wiped out.
ReplyDelete@Waffen
ReplyDeleteThat's the kind of question that often goes through my mind. What if there is no/little pullback? What if buyer pressure is just relentless? When should I get back in, it's up $3 already?
Hard to fight the urge to get back in and recover some of our losses, I know. But that is impulse talking. Be calm. Rule number one is protect your remaining capital. Go long with another options play only when you are confident. Hold your fire and look for a dip to buy. (Talking to myself here, too.)
re: sugar
ReplyDeletethey flooded the Morganza Spillway, lots of sugar cane gone
http://www.wafb.com/story/14593056/corps-releases-map-showing-anticipated-flooding-from-morganza-spill-opening
Like most of you, I follow many voices and opinions of where the markets are and where (they think) we are going. NIA, though loved by some and hated by others, is just one of those opinions that I read. Before this last plunge in the metals the NIA was saying that even though they were very bullish for the long term, silver had gone up much to fast and was due for correction. Their opinion was that it might be a good time to swap some silver for gold. So..my point being that, like our fearless leader here, they have been spot on on many occasions.
ReplyDeleteThis latest Q&A posted on their site last night has me scratching my head though. Mid-2012 for silver to get back to $50.00..? :O
Just curious what TF and others think about this prediction. Kind of sadly depressing on the one hand...but in another way it does give us more time to prepare and keep stacking if it is true.
From NIA:
Q: Now that silver has pulled back to a 1:38 ratio with respect to the price of gold as you correctly predicted it would, what is your price target for silver at the end of 2011?
A: Silver is likely going to remain volatile with large swings
up and down, but a few months from now it might be exactly
where it is now. We are looking for the gold/silver ratio to
decline to 16 within the next 2 to 3 years, and then
ultimately 10 later this decade. If silver becomes a bubble,
the gold/silver ratio will fall to 8. We could test $50
again at the end of 2011, but it is likely going to take
until mid-2012 to breakout past $50.
I am concerned about the price of silver when Hong Kong starts their newly approved Chinese COMEX. With their type of government they don't have to answer to anybody. Remember that it is important for that the dollar to remain strong and commodities low since they have to feed a billion people. I foresee manipulation there. What do you all think?
ReplyDeletehttp://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/05/10/china-overtakes-us-as-world%E2%80%99s-largest-commodity-futures-market/
Hey Mockra, how you liking those drill results for Northair today?! I've been saying they would be released last week or this week, up 23% yesterday due to insider buying had me pretty sure the results would be out today...yup, up another 12% already since the NR!
ReplyDelete39.3 Metres of 205.3 g/t Silver
Their last drill results were 48.05 metres @ 140.6 g/t and I had a feeling these results would be better which is why this was the only miner I held on to during the bloodbath last week. They've found some good silver veins down there in La Cigarra!
TF...You sure your not pseudonym moonlighting as Avery Goodman inspite of your ZH post publicly declaring your not him? (only kidding)
ReplyDeleteYour avatar of ole' Burt cracks me up when I see it and your comments elsewhere.
The Goodman article I read last night and todays link to ZH's "False myths about gold and silver..." are good examples of the grasp and depth of knowledge that some people (TF included) have on the bankers bear raid
timetable on the PM's.
It was a epiphany of sorts to consider that playing the bankers game and letting it run it's course (like we have a choice?) could be the biggest money maker of all for all of us and not being a long bull all the time except for the physical accumulation side of it.
Thats probably a no brainer to most of you, but being a bull and being somewhat emotionally invested with all of those bull hopes/beliefs will eventually impede our profit making. It has effected mine for sure up to this point.
I would hate to look back 5,10,20 years from now and have a lot of "If only I would have sold there and bought back in there I would've etc." type memories. Inspite of the last two weeks just "sucking big time", in retrospect it might have been a very important leaning lesson going forward for myself.
I have a strong tendency to want to just let the profits run while they are sprinting and not sense the coming exhaustion and recuperation that needs to take place for the marathon to continue.
Not anymore.
Once I recoup from the EE bloodbath last week I'll know better and proceed accordingly.
(I hope!)
@MB,
ReplyDeleteI took the proceeds from a house sale in 2006, invested it in physical @ ~$12.50. That's roughly a triple up to now.
To keep a roof over my head, my (now) wife took a loan from her RRSP for a down payment on a farm in an area of the country where it's still cheap. We are repaying the mortgage and the RRSP loan with proceeds from the EE casino.
Parchment Paper Thin Walls
ReplyDeletehttp://apeakunderthehood.blogspot.com/2011/05/parchment-paper-thin-walls.html
Florida to cut state unemployment benefits
ReplyDeletehttp://money.cnn.com/2011/05/10/news/economy/florida_unemployment_benefits/index.htm?iid=HP_LN
Grab your ankles Floridians
This is totally off topic ..but is extremely FUN. ...Watch and enjoy.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5UYFLrn-BY
Actually .......now that I think about it.. it kind of does fit with the theme of the 'Fast One' the EE pulled on us last week. :|
I posted this over at SGS and am hoping to find some guidance here as well...
ReplyDelete@SGS or anyone else who can assist
I am:
43% Phyz Silver
28% Phyz Gold
11% AGQ
9% SPXU
10% Fiat
Looking to put 10% fiat to work on buying calls to eventually unload for Phyz.
#1) Any thoughts on doing this in my Fidelity IRA
#2) I have an employer 30 day holding period. is purchasing calls advisable given this constraint?
#3) Can you recommend what exactly I should buying, SLV, AGQ...?
Thanks in advance
@ waffen:
ReplyDeleteFirst time poster to this blog. I am a regular reader here as well as ZH, where I first started reading Turd's posts. I am also underwater in my OTM SLV calls. I understand exactly what you are going through.
One thing you need to consider is that the time value of your options decays faster the closer you get to expiration. And June expiration is right around the corner.
Just something to think about. Remember, options are futures bets. Even if silver rises, if it rises at a slower pace than what looks like is needed to meet your strike at expiration, then you will slowly lose your premium.
My advice would be to try to time this bounce as best you can, wait for the 2nd dip, and if there is one, and roll your contracts over into your July and October calls, averaging down your premium cost for those options.
Anybody notice that silver pops to it's high for the day 8-ish premarket, not always, but frequently during the runup from 40-49.50? Same pattern yesterday and today, like it's being marched up?
ReplyDeleteVer: MOLYs - hmmmm.....
You have got to love the way Iran talks about Israel. See paragraph below with link at the bottom
ReplyDelete"If the Quds occupying regime (Israel) commits a mistake against Iran, it will find no way to escape and Zionists themselves know well that Iran's reaction would be unpredictable and strongly harsh," Jalali told FNA on Tuesday.
Jalili's comments came after a recent report by the Iranian English-language Press TV said that several squadrons of Israeli fighter jets are doing dress rehearsals in Western Iraq in preparation for a blitzkrieg on Iran.
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9002204186
@Winker
ReplyDeleteWell if it is Fiat you have free than you have better options then you just mentioned. Make a new forex account would be my advice. Forex allows trading at all hours, low commission, and no time requirements.
Many more experienced traders here then me though.
HOLY SHIT. Yesterday's final OI number is 124k. Down from 130k.
ReplyDeleteThis is now even more bullish than Turd's bottom at 26,50$ in January, where we were at 123k contracts. Back then the percentage of shorts of that 123000 contracts was obviously a lot higher.
So it seems like a lot of short covering by the EE yesterday. Hugely bullish numbers.
Just picked up a tiny bit of ZSL, I figure if silver's headed back down, I can make a few bucks on it.
ReplyDeleteErik,
ReplyDeletethanks for the post. I am so underwater with only $725 left of my 6100 in my June call. that I am thinking I should just hope for a huge turnaround. Its just $5 a week on the upside :|
I dont know if its worth just giving up and cashing out what is left and taking my $700 or just sitting and hoping to get a few K's back.
@ Averagejoe
ReplyDeleteThanks. The time requirement that I have to hold is dictated by the broker/dealer where I am employed. Unfortunately, I am limited to the choice of trading platforms as duplicate confirms need to be sent to my compliance dept.
OT guys re diamonds
ReplyDeleteMay 10, 2011 10:38 ET
Afri-Can Marine Sampling Recovers Large Diamonds From EPL 3403 in Namibia
Link: http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/afri-can-marine-sampling-recovers-large-diamonds-from-epl-3403-in-namibia-tsx-venture-afa-1512548.htm
AFA.VN is halted right now as they have just released the results of their latest exploration off coast of Namibia
last traded this AM before halt @ Cdn$0.08
Disclosure: I owe a boatload of shares
Btw yesterday I noted that the HUI was going down or staying flat as PMs were moving up. Usually considered a bearish sign as far as I've picked up..?
ReplyDeleteDoesn't always have to hold true, it seems.
waffen
ReplyDeleteif u had the cash now instead of the option position, what position would u take?
that is the position u should probably have.
next time only put money in OTM options u r willing to lose (assuming OTM is ~1-2 SD or more OTM)
for ITM or ATM options, always pick ur stop-loss before the trade. if u don't this there will be times whr u will lose everything.
whatever u do, don't panic. if u need the cash and u shouldn't have played with it i think it would be smarter to close the loss, personally although u may lose out on any gains. if it is cash u dont need in the next 12-24 months, then create a position that u would take at this moment if u had cash only.
also i would be much more concerned about the 2 positions that still have money in them! the one that is far OTM is easier to deal with b/c truth is the loss has likely been dealt already. make sure in ur emotions to save ur cash u don't forget to make a plan to protect urself for the remainder of ur positions.
pls note i am not a financial advisor.
I am one of the most unsophisticated traders on this site. However, last week I posted that I was going to cover my physical holding with an appropriate amount of ZSL. I got creamed on Sunday night but that was the extent of my loss. I sold a couple of thousand ounces at 46 on Monday and bought the ZSL Tuesday deciding to wait this mess out. I trade sideways but that isn't down and that's a plus. Yesterday I started selling off my ZSL a bit at a time. I made a couple of thousand dollars by this morning on the up in silver but decided enough was enough based on Turd's apprehension. When silver got to $38.50, I figured that was Turd's $39. I switched over to ZSL and bought more than I needed to cover my physical. I am going to ride this into next week or down to somewhere around $35. If something happens to the upside in silver, I'll miss it. That isn't where my sentiment lies. However, at this point, trading sideways not only causes me to miss the upside, it causes me to miss the downside too and that's what scares me the most. We'll see.
ReplyDeletecan someone explain what a french cure is and looks like.. i tried googling it without luck..
ReplyDeletecheers,
waffen/oldNavy,
ReplyDeleteSentiment on this board is cautious/short term bearish and this is one of the most bullish places around. I imagine the same conversation is going on in the head of every silver speculator. I suppose the psychology is the similar after every large decline. Maybe we are seeing this? http://chart-patterns.netfirms.com/bearflag.htm (not a prediction or based on any analysis, I just notice some similarity on the longer range charts).
Specifically to waffen, my recommendation to you is the same as it was back when those June calls were worth $1650. Except, since you doubled down and purchased July and October calls, there is no rationale to keep five June contracts as a lottery ticket.
You don't need to see your capital go to zero. That is an emotional reaction. What you need to do is protect yourself against those July/October calls also expiring worthless. If silver goes up another $10 you will probably make enough money on them to regain your capital and maybe even make a little profit.
Try hitting singles for a while.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_curve
ReplyDeleteHmm, miners just about all took a dump. Silver to jump, or to follow? I can't remember what leads what anymore, and how long it lasts in between the role switch.
ReplyDeleteRegardless, I might just sell Revett tomorrow, so everybody should get ready and buy now before my sell triggers a $1 spike in price. My luck is that powerful.
Markus
ReplyDeleteI'm still around. Not wiped out by a long shot. "Bloody, but unbowed" might be more accurate.
It's just that with most conversation here lately revolving around day trading, I don't have much to say. Same with most of the arguing about FOFOA and various trolls. Topics of conversation ebb and flow here. Currently on an ebb, from my perspective. No hard feelings about it. I wish everyone well, and like many others eagerly await the new site.
As for me, I'm still nibbling on physical gold here and there. When the GSR was at it's lows, I was paying for my gold with silver. Now I'm paying for it with FRN's instead.
My heroes on my miners list for today are Timmins Gold and Argonaut Gold.
Personally, I'm expecting another dip, but hey I could be wrong.
GLTA
Eric
French Curves:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.google.ca/search?q=french+curves&hl=en&rls=com.microsoft:en-ca:IE-SearchBox&rlz=1I7SMSN&prmd=ivns&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=SV7JTfWxF4Lq0gHD3cyYCQ&ved=0CCcQsAQ&biw=1103&bih=520
Sentiment on this board is cautious/short term bearish and this is one of the most bullish places around
ReplyDeleteDown 28% in a week'll do that to you.
ya, i saw those, i dont see how that relates to silver falling in terms of TA stuff,
ReplyDeleteI don't want to beat the proverbial "dead horse" but if you have 6-10k working, why sink that into options? It's such a tough game. There have been explosive moves in individual issues over the past several months: gpl,exk,aau, come to mind right off the top of my head. It's tough enough to be on the right side of a trade but combine that with the timing aspect that comes along with the options game and it's one tough gig.
ReplyDeletestill long and strong, tre,rgld,gg,aau,uxg and gold.
Put in a buy order for ZSL @ $18.25....
ReplyDeleteHaven't turned bearish, just watching from the sidelines (paper) at the moment.
ReplyDeleteEric,
ReplyDeleteknow you're still around. Never gone 1, 2 days without seeing you and hope I never will. Good to see a lot of regulars around here.
You actually gave me some miners recommendations in the other thread. A late thank you for that.
Was a lot fuller here already though. Maybe it's for the better that has changed. So to speak, that not only silver has changed into stronger hands, but this blog/board as well.
Wouldn't it be cool if some of us guys who got in here around Turd's bottom were still around when silver hits 500$? That would be quite something to look back on. Like climbing a huge mountain together and only the strongest few made it.
Already going towards the evening hours here in Central Europe. Good day to the rest of you, and as always:
Buy silver.
Waffen...Try to sit tight for a bit longer IMO.
ReplyDeleteIf you sell now to preserve $725 you'll kick yourself in the ass if it rebounds and your on the sideline.
This might be hard to consider and swallow but if your down $6600 then the $725 is almost meaningless to not risk further to try and recapture some capital.
Time decay, capital evaporation and lower volumes leading into options expiration within a month truly sucks. A bit of a helpless feeling. Time is your friend and enemy and it's the reason I go farther out into the future. Jan 12' calls allow me to sleep at night and time to recover. I admit I'm possibly too far out in time but I need the emotional cushion as I'm fairly new to the options game.
The way that the PM's just tanked, they may just rise just as fast if a COMEX delivery failure happens or is even hinted at. We'll find out soon enough.
As far as the $800 you have left over looking to deploy. Jan. 12' $80 GG calls are pretty cheap right now if you believe gold will go higher in the next 6 months.
GG just posted Q1 earnings of over 100% from the previous qtr. All I need is for Au and some earnings recognition to happen and I'll recover. There's nothing like time. Stay patient a bit longer.
Good luck. There are lots of us on here in your situation.
smarsack61
ReplyDeleteI noticed this also, For those of us limited to trading 9:30 to 4pm, Its impossible to take advantage of the run-ups overnight. And I am very hesitant to hold any significant position overnight now...
Slow decline happening, low volume, miners headed down .... smells like time for an EE attack?
ReplyDeleteMarkus said:
ReplyDelete"Wouldn't it be cool if some of us guys who got in here around Turd's bottom were still around when silver hits 500$? That would be quite something to look back on. Like climbing a huge mountain together and only the strongest few made it."
Couldn't agree more. From an investment perspective, and a community perspective, it's been a magical time. And it ain't over yet!
Eric, I picked up a piece of gold on eBay last week for under spot! It's nothing fancy (a proof commemorative, which I consider junk), but it has renewed my faith in bargain shopping for metal.
ReplyDeleteGPL is looking good today. I wonder if drill results will be out presently, or if buyers are jumping on board in anticipation of a crossover on the MACD.
Harald,
ReplyDeleteSorry, wasn't trying to be cute by pointing out the obvious, just that the effect leads to predictable behavior in that market, and that is why so many people expect a retest.
I smell a raid coming. Either that or somebody farted
ReplyDeletewow.. what happened, BOS?
ReplyDeleteIt's time to takeout 39.
ReplyDelete@ Turd...
ReplyDeleteMinor detail here... but Martha got six months for lying to the FBI/DOJ about her "other cell phone," not for the insider trading (she didn't get hit at all for that).
The one thing the FBI will tell you to never, ever do to them is lie or say anything even close to a lie... for that they will try to lock you up for 6 months every time.
Again, MINOR detail... keep rolling... we didn't stop when the German's bombed Pearl Harbor so don't let this minor historical detail trip you up either!
Pailin/Atlee, et all..
ReplyDeleteSeeing definite capping here at the 38.60 level. We've bounced off that 4 times now since 5am EDT. Looks like EE doesn't want it above that for now.
I'd have to say we are looking at lower prices from here.
Any thoughts on the afternoon's direction?
http://money-watch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/manias-bubbles.jpg
ReplyDeletewell folks do you remember this chart?
Had you followed it you'd all be rich right now but heaven forbid we learn from the mistakes of others.
Welcome to the return to the mean stage.
Rest assured the $500 an ounce trolls will keep on squawking though.
Confirmation bias+preaching to the choir=lost fortunes.
GPL just hit a nice upside.
ReplyDeleteNo, I don't remember. There's a million charts floating around If, if, if. As my father would say; "If the Queen had balls, she'd be the King." If every day I go downtown and stand on a street corner and tell everyone who passes by, "It's going to rain tomorrow." eventually, I'd be right.
ReplyDeleteKind of hard to compare this bull run in silver to that chart mc2560, especially when it took 5 margin hikes to form that artificial "sell-off" and make it appear that the bubble has burst. I've compared silver to that chart numerous times since first seeing it, if anything I would consider last weeks drop the first "sell-off" if a comaparison must be made. We haven't gotten anywhere near close to a buying frenzy, delusion, a new paradigm or greed. I'd hardly consider us in to the public awareness phase. All of those will come after $50 is passed, how long that will take is anyones guess at this point. That chart does no good in a controlled market.
ReplyDelete@Dr. J
ReplyDeleteYeah, I've no real interest in opening a futures acct, so I've got the same limitations - I had a long SLV pos'n from 11-ish, sold at 46-ish, and have been trading options since. It seems like it's a fairly reliable trading indicator though, and one of the reasons I've held some ITM calls overnight, although I'm hedged.
I generally avoid AGQ and ZSL, but if it's a valid tell, we'll hold below 38.60 until after 1:30 est (with a little beat down prior to close) then see it move up through 4pm and into the overnight hours. I MIGHT just try 100sh of AGQ near Comex close sell-down and sell a slightly OTM call against it, then close the position at the end of the day.
Whatchoo think?
"Today’s action totally eliminates any and all remaining concerns for the price of gold. Today’s action lights up the $1764 Angel in gold"
ReplyDeleteMay 9 - From Jim Sinclair
Mister
ReplyDeleteYes, cheap metal is definately out there! My favorite recent ebay item came in right around melt value, not counting a bezel that I think I can remove and sell for a few bucks more! UPS man comes today!
Gold is gold. Silver is silver. There are most certainly bargains to be had if you go searching around for the more unusual, unpopular sort of stuff, things with poorly done listings, bad pictures, etc. and then be very disciplined in your bid. If you don't get it, fine. Just walk away and look for the next one. Good Luck! (but hey don't be bidding against me!)
mc2560, I'll go with the cliche. It is different this time. Why? Because the dollar is terminally ill. Unless you mean that it is the dollar in a bubble; if that's the case, then I agree with you.
ReplyDeleteClosed my silver trade.
ReplyDeleteIran telling like it is
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/iran-speaks-paper-dollar-destroying-world-economy#comment-1259444
Justin...the man who drew the chart agreed with me. I've had him for 2 college classes. You can stick your head in the sand as long as you want but it will do you no good.
ReplyDeleteThe "facts" remain the same.
The COMEX provided excess liquidity to the silver market.
When it got close to 50, they ostensibly took out puts on silver themselves.
They took away that same liquidity they provided.
Then they cashed in big time on their puts.
@Xaritas.
ReplyDeleteNo problem...just a lame attempt at humor on my part.
no doubt they had to write a few checks to the CFTC as well.
ReplyDeleteFort
ReplyDeleteIt ain't over until WE DECIDE IT IS!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MsmybQKpmTw
I wonder how many sheep have been skinned by following the "it's different this time" mantra. They are called the four most dangerous words in investing for a reason.
ReplyDelete@ILUVPMS,
ReplyDeleteSinclair's comment about a french curve not fitting on the silver chart was a piece of sarcastic humor.
A french curve consists 100% of an assortment of curves with varying radii. The fact that no part of a french curve would "fit" on the silver chart was confirmation that silver was going straight up and therefore due for imminent correction.
Everybody but the cheerleaders could see it.
@mc2560
ReplyDeleteProbably able to write off the CFTC payments as a necessary business expense...
hahaha yep
ReplyDeletemc2560, are you saying "It's different this time" for the dollar? Is the dollar going to be the first fiat currency not to be printed into worthlessness?
ReplyDelete@mc2560
ReplyDeletelet me guess the friday of april 29, u bot 42 may first weeklys at 0.14 and sold 1 week later for 6.30.
since u were probably very confident b/c of ur graph, it would have been reasonable to put $1million or so which would now be 45 million, how did it turn out? what will u do with ur 45 million?
I didn't mention the dollar...but yes it will be printed into worthlessness.
ReplyDeleteI guess I'll keep my head in the sand a little while longer then, mc2560. I have a nice view down here of the fundamentals that are driving PM's.
ReplyDelete"It's different this time" makes much more sense to me given the drastic measures being taken by TPTB to smash silver down last week and their reasons for doing so. To each their own if you want to stick with "it's the same this time", I could care less what you do with your money or where you think we are on a chart that doesn't apply in a manipulated market. Nothing about this economy, money printing or the fiscal irresponsibilty of our fearless leaders since 2008 has been screaming "time to buy dollars".
I haven't sold any silver my illiterate friend.
ReplyDelete@ waffen:
ReplyDeleteLike I said before, time is your biggest enemy right now. Yes, it sucks that you're down 90% or whatever it is. I'm down about the same. So i know it's hard to sell and realize that loss.
But you also have to look at the other side of the coin. Sure, you are selling your June options 'on the cheap', compared to when you bought them. But you would also be buying the later expiration options 'on the cheap' as well. So really, by rolling your contracts over to a later expiration, you're only losing the commissions (as well as some volatility), but you are gaining yourself some time. Of course, this only holds if you remain bullish.
Take note of what SP said at 11:41 am. If you were sitting in cash, would you buy those June 55.00 calls today at $.16? If so, then hold. If not, then sell at the near-term high and buy the option you would want on the dip. Just my 2 cents.
The "facts" remain the same.
ReplyDelete--------------
So because you state its a " FACT " so it must be true correct? I'll take the over on this comment.
Anyone who states " Facts " in his or her comment is the biggest sheeple going.
mc2560
ReplyDeleteCould you draw the same thing for the shitload of dollars and American debt. And how will that end. The same thing - the party is over. How about your medicare or the 600trillion derivatives mess of paper.
I think the world wouldn't be in the mess its in if most could think in terms of a balancing act, ie what is on the otherside of the scale of precious metals - air?? Its even harder to get people to think 3dimensionally.
Great chart tho if your thinking is one dimensional.
I put "facts" in quotes for a reason.
ReplyDeleteIt's a conspiracy theory.
also I recommend you take a look at the five year rhodium chart to see the fun in store for u(sarcasm)
ReplyDelete@mc2560
ReplyDeleteuh so basically u r posting a well known chart to a trading blog and describing in retrospect how obvious the move was, yet u took no position...? what do u work for seeking alpha?
no I was stupid and greedy like you guys and I thought it was going over 50 too. I too chose to ignore the obvious and I must suffer for it.
ReplyDeletemc2560,
ReplyDeletewhy are you wasting everyone's time?
Another noble citizen, armed with the irrefutable professor's graph, who could be making a killing off the sheep if not for his need to save them. Heartwarming. And you thought altruism was dead.
ReplyDeleteIt's a conspiracy theory.
ReplyDelete----------
Isn't it all.
Besides that Silver is highly liquid anyway. Just because our local grocery stores do not except it here in the states in other countries it is.
If you have so much faith in that chart, mc2560, and claim we are at the top of it and on the way down since the bubble has obviously burst, why haven't you sold any or all of your silver as you just mentioned? Seems a little contradictory to claim the good times are behind us yet you aren't unloading your stash.
ReplyDeletebecause I would be losing money if I sold it now.
ReplyDeleteif it was so obvious why would u do it?
ReplyDeletei don't think u get the point of that curve. the truth is we will never know in retrospect what point we are until the entire hand is played out (years down the road)...the only way to put any context onto the mania/bubble phenomenon is to make an attempt at valuing what you are buying/selling. if u think that silver is only worth $10 and u were buying at $50 then yes u deserve a beating. if u think silver is worth $150, then it is reasonable to continue buying it on that assumption.
also here is another bubble chart to show ur college buddies:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/do-us-bonds-resemble-dot-com-stocks/
and we're not on the way down, we're on the way up, just very very very slowly.
ReplyDelete@mc2560
ReplyDeleteI've seen that chart before (when you previously posted it) and agree with Justin that we'd be in the awareness phase atm. I don't see how we're anywhere close to the mania phase--yet. I only know of one person that's bought silver ($4,000 of 90% silver) and that's it. I have some tellers holding halves for silver for me and they're not even interested in it. A friend of mine that manages a store had silver dimes in their tray and didn't even know what they were. I explained what they were (dates, etc) and they said I could have them. w00t! Heck, I've never even heard silver mentioned on any tv network or news program other than CNBC. I even heard that NBC news with Brian Williams on a week or two ago talking about the new highs in commodities and he mentioned oil and silver was never mentioned. I just don't see any mania happening, heck on that chart I'd move that bear trap closer to the stealth phase because, atm, that's all it seems to me. I guess time will tell.
Just my .02 cents. Regardless, thanks for posting the chart as I think all of us need to keep that in mind.
"no I was stupid and greedy like you guys and I thought it was going over 50 too. I too chose to ignore the obvious and I must suffer for it."
ReplyDeletePseudoempathy now? Come on, I've seen far subtler and more effective attempts at trolling. :)
For those trying to decide which way to lean...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2011/5/Pages/Euro-Gold-Targets-Record-1072oz-on-Risk--Contagion.aspx
Less then 20 Euro from a breakout to a new record high. Last time the Euro Gold was moving up and the USD was moving up was pretty fun...maybe soon again?
@mc2560
ReplyDelete"because I would be losing money if I sold it now."
now i get it. u r one of the newbies and started trading and got burned. in fairness, then perhaps i was harsh. i feel bad for newbies who trade and lost. but it is clear u r confusing economics, investing, and trading, all 3 very distinct areas of "expertise". i would suggest (unless u want to be poor the rest of ur life) that u avoid economists at all costs. these are individuals who make $100k per year yet claim to be masters of the universe.
Markus
ReplyDeleteI too have noticed the absence of a few posters since I returned from a one week plus out of town trip. I do hope that last week's beatdown didn't do irreparable harm to any Turdlings.
Being in 100% physical, still, I didn't lose even one ounce! (but the value in FRNs sure took a beating) Part of my stack will be used to become debt free at some point along the way, so the beatdown sure took a ton of flexibility away from me.
If trolling is disagreeing then sure.
ReplyDeleteWe're at $38.65. If you would lose money selling your physical at that price, you're in no position to be offering advice to anyone.
ReplyDeleteNow people too scared to buy even at 33. Some people bought at 48 without hesitation. Maybe train left the station. Now heading to 49 again. Fear is strong factor. EE scared lots noobs.
ReplyDeletedont feed the trolls
ReplyDeleteGetting the feeling second dip might not happen. Oh well whats a few bucks in a real bull market
yeah the boogeyman is coming to get you.
ReplyDelete@mc2560
ReplyDeletethere is nothing wrong with disagreeing but u haven't provided any fundamental argument.
all u r doing is retrofitting a curve.
I'm not sure if anyone here uses Ichimoku clouds, but, based on the Ichimoku clouds for silver, it shows that we are heading up to $44 - $45 and then a pullback to $40 ish. Not sure if we're gonna get the double bottom to $35.
ReplyDelete@mc2560 look at it this way. Silver is crashing, that much I agree with. Crashing to its proper place after 30 years of manipulation...That is a " Fact ".
ReplyDeleteI suggest a book to you..." When Money Dies " you will learn a lot with this read.
We're at $38.65. If you would lose money selling your physical at that price, you're in no position to be offering advice to anyone.
ReplyDelete---------------
Bingo and school is over.
The awareness phase - if that is where we are - is, though, awkwardly spirally into bigger proportions. Here in the Netherlands I've seen a popular investor/rich guy as a guest in a news-show just before the evening 8'clock news bring a bar of silver, claiming that it'll easily go up and double. That was some months ago. He wasn't made fun of, but he was clearly brought into the show as a curiosity.
ReplyDeleteI've also seen an increasing number of people that buy and sell silver, of whom most claim that it'll only go up. When I bought physical and wanted to sell some, to 1) establish some contacts, 2) see how quickly I can get it done, I had a buyer above spot price fairly quickly, telling me that he'd buy whatever I'm willing to sell, as he's started running his own small PM shop on the internet and, since the price goes up anyway, he'll just keep buying cheap(er) and sell it at quite a hefty premium (I imported it from Germany, so only 7% VAT, he sells it at a price-different tax, which is better than VAT, so he preferred buying from private people).
I've also found flyers in my mailbox stating that certain pawnshops will buy any and all gold and silver you bring them. Pawnshops here in the Netherlands are pretty damn professional and have lately, it would seem, specialised in selling and buying PM's. I had hoped I could squeeze some PM's out of them but they all know bloody damn well what the spot price is and won't budge.
What I can say, though, is that everyone is still, pretty much, making fun of silver rather than advising you to honestly buy it. USA television I know always has the talking heads oppose any and all silver bugs, and they are usually presented as a curiosity. But apart from that, it was really gaining ground a lot. Don't know how its going right now with the correction.
the classic appeal to hypocrisy fallacy.
ReplyDeletesome miners dropping
ReplyDeleteJust saying that this has been an ominous sign in the past.
the classic appeal to hypocrisy fallacy.
ReplyDelete--------------
Now your just chest pounding for notoriety. What ever. I hope whatever it is you have going on works for you in the long run.
Be well
James Turk's Market Commentary
ReplyDeleteTrading Comments, 10 May 2011 (posted 08h45 CET):
The precious metals began this week on strength, which is encouraging. This strength is an indication that last week’s low was a selling climax, and these rare events mark important lows.
There's a bit more at:
http://www.fgmr.com/trading-current-positions.html
NYMEX Closes...$39 here we come?
ReplyDeleteIndirect bidders buy 32.7% of 3-year auction
ReplyDeleteBidders offer $3.29 for each $1 in 3-year notes
Treasury sells 3-year notes at 1%
FAIL!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-lacker-qe2-end-high-water-mark-of-stimulus-2011-05-10?link=MW_latest_news
@Ricky
ReplyDeleteCould be the prelude to the double-bottom that Turd has been talking about? At least I think that's what he was saying...been a long week so far lol
I sure hope I am wrong...
ReplyDeleteMaybe the EE is trying to keep silver from running up up until the oil margin(s) have an effect.
ReplyDelete@ Shill,
ReplyDeleteHe calls QE2 the "high water" mark, but not the end of the stimulus cycle. I interpret that as we'll have more stimilus, but only $599 billion next time instead of $600 billion with QE2. He even said the unemployment rate is moving in the right direction, didn't the unemployment rate just go back up to 9 percent?!
"Higher gasoline prices shouldn't dampen consumer spending for long."
Just like high gas prices didn't in 2008...oh wait. Yes they did.
Anyone got any idea where the news of a raised debt-ceiling will be announced? Is there a stream where they vote or something of the like?
ReplyDeleteIMO, news of a raised debt-ceiling = QE3 equivalent effect on market. At least short term prior to the actual QE3 announcement.
The second dip will come exactly one minute after we've all forgotten that it could come, or start celebrating that ag avoided it.
ReplyDeleteJustin, Yep for sure....And here come the FED mouth pieces. If they start pulling liquidity..load up them short boys and girls, this sucker is going down. But of course you know and I know this is snot going to happen.
ReplyDeleteToo infinity and beyond.
FOAGQ. Quick trades and small grabs only today.
ReplyDeleteTrying to keep the emotion in check that says "yeah, only 100 more of these and I'll be where I was at the peak"
Is /SI breaking out?
ReplyDeleteI got off the ride today. I watched yesterday as it quietly bumped against 38 all day, this morning it went through but that happened before regular hours, then it got very shakey to my way of seeing things. I would go short ZSL but I am a little scared of a news item randomly driving the price up with Greece ect. or a failed monetization event from the debt ceiling. I'd say this is a good moment to be out and let 40 tell the tale. As far as a EE raid goes, I don't think so at this price. When Silver hit 33.50 in off hours the big boys bought it... a LOT of it. If they try to jam it down now I think they might end up not being able to clear the shorts before the price is bid back up. I would not expect them to fight too hard at 40 execpt for a few exploratory raids to see if they can clear the shorts before it moves up... I am thinking they would wait until 42 or 43 and jam it under 40 again. Unless options expiration arrives before then of course. I have been thinking that they might not be as vulnerable on their shorts atm as they probably took the biggest losers off the table at 34 35, they might not need to jam it down as hard or too soon. By knocking the small specs out they took out a lot of liquidity making raids more effective but they have the problem in that very very strong hands are waiting not too far below the price we are at now. More volatile price will make their raids more compilcated and present the possiblity of silver spiking up too he fast to clear the shorts used for the raid I think they might be a little scared of that, they'll be careful.
ReplyDeleteIn short I am thinking lets see 40 silver... and not to confident of being short... seems like shorting a SPY or momo stock would be better ATM. The klaxxons are ringing for a broad market drop, or so my gut seems to tell me. I would also like to see a few mini raids and how quick they are priced out.
CME announces daily LIMITS on Corn futures. from .30 to .40 I wonder if they will put something on silver
ReplyDelete@ Dr.
ReplyDeleteIt's looking like it might be a breakout!
38.78!!!!
ReplyDeleteWhoohoo
Dang, what happened? First everyone was all HOLD, and BUY. Now everyone is rocketing away from AGQ at the sight of even just a bit of a ceiling.
ReplyDeleteI get that AGQ is dangerous when it goes down, but heck, give it some room to move. I've got a stop loss running at yesterday's low and I'm not selling before it reaches that. Tomorrow, my stop loss will be at today's low. If you just jump the ship at some random high point, chance is that wasn't the right high point. I don't mind selling on the way back down and losing a bit of profit in the go - the upside is that, well... that I can join whatever upside it gives me. Silver has pretty much always surprised me with going higher than I thought it would.
Guess it's just a different trading strategy. I like the swing trades. Buy, put a stop loss in at yesterday's low, and keep moving the stop loss to yesterday's low, or today's low, until it throws you out. So far it seems to work pretty well. Only thing it doesn't protect you against is a mid-night sell off party when all ETF trading is dead.
RE: THE GREAT CHART CONTROVERSY
ReplyDeleteIMHO, mc2560's initial post wasn't THAT offensive. And, I have been looking for that chart so I'm glad he posted it. However, I agree with others that we have not yet/have barely entered the mania phase.
The chart that I think would be much more instructive is the one I alluded to the other day which shows this secular bull market in silver back to about 2001 and illustrates that a 15-15% correction occurs each time the price reaches a level 130%-145% of 200 DMA. If anyone can find that and post a link to it I would be most grateful. I think there's a good chance of that pattern repeating 1-2 more times in 2011.
According to that indicator, a correction was overdue. Buyer sentiment was so strong I thought we would run to $50+ first, as TF had projected.
However, EE can read charts, too and knew silver was ready to take a fall, all it needed was a good PUSH... On Monday we saw a bounce into the early PM and that's where I made my biggest mistake. I went away from the computer thinking we were out of the woods. Didn't find out otherwise until after closing. Now I'm licking my wounds and learning my lessons an getting ready for the next leg up.
I think what we have just experienced was a repeat of JAN, only with more violence because of the PUSH and the higher prices and volumes involved. I think this pattern will repeat.
Regarding Jim Willie's rap lyrics.
ReplyDeleteThis pale American even attempting to try to rap with any rhythm would be like the movie "Malibu's Most Wanted".
Jamie Kennedy cracks me up in that one.
OOPS: "a 15-35% correction" is what I meant to say. (All from memory, anyway, not exact)
ReplyDeleteOnly thing it doesn't protect you against is a mid-night sell off party when all ETF trading is dead.
ReplyDeleteAnd really, what are the odds of that happening?
ILUVPMS said..."can someone explain what a french cure is and looks like.. i tried googling it without luck.."
ReplyDeletefrench curve site:jsmineset.com
http://tinyurl.com/3tdk4ab
I'm remaining a devoted "FOAGQ", but as I rebuild my AGQ position off of the lows I'm also balancing it with some UGL. For anyone who has been working AGQ for a while the double leveraged gold feels like a real yawner by comparison. Maybe something to look at as people want to get back into the metals but aren't quite ready to take a fully overweighted AGQ position before seeing the predicted double bottom . . .
ReplyDelete$14,365,922,000,000.00
ReplyDeleteReasons to keep buying.
Schill
ReplyDeleteand change.
Okay, I see what's going on. You know we're almost at 200, so you're not posting because you won't be read. Let me help you. 199.
ReplyDelete$6.5 trillion in housing wealth gone up in smoke.
ReplyDeleteAnd we bailed out the bankers to the tune of???
Its right in front of you. If your thinking that the housing bubble run up will be back any time soon don't hold your breath.
where the hell is my double bottom?
ReplyDelete