Saturday, April 30, 2011

Where Were You On Super Bowl Weekend?

I was in Vegas with my friend, Sweetness. He and I gambled too much. Drank too much gin and played a little golf.

Where were you? Did you watch the game? Perhaps you had a party? Maybe you're not an american football fan so you spent the weekend relaxing and catching up. Either way, like me, you had no way of knowing what was going on behind the scenes.

My next question is: Where was Ben Bernanke? Where was Tim Geithner? Where were the rest of the Fed governors and the heads of the TBTF banks? We may never know, though history one day may record their actions for posterity.

Why do I ask and why was February 4, 2011 so important? In hindsight, it is clear that 2/4/11 was the day that the Fed's hand was forced. A critical moment in time had come. The ruinous implications of the Fed's quantitative easing policy had been made clear. That weekend, both the dollar index and the long bond were moving toward critical, long-term support. Both could not be saved and a decision had to be made.

Sometime over Super Bowl weekend it was decided. Your monetary "officials" chose to preserve their own power at your expense. Why do I say this? Three months on, it's clear that the decision was made to support the long bond at all costs, to the detriment of the dollar. The global reserve currency was sacrificed on the altar of low interest rates and the maintenance of the Fed/TBTF/Govt ponzi. Because of this decision millions, even billions, of people will suffer. The inflation that is coming will spark food shortages and protest. This unrest may/will lead to war. All of this so that the Fed can maintain their power, the TBTF and primary dealer banks can remain afloat and the bankrupt U.S. government can continue printing and spending money, thereby allowing elected officials to escape the scrutiny that would come from actually leading. Neither history nor The Almighty will judge their selfish and cruel actions well.

Here are the charts that prove this out, beginning with the dollar or, as we call it here, the POSX.
As you can see, post 2/4 the dollar actually rallied for a week. It has since declined by almost 8%.

The critical chart on 2/4 was the U.S. Long Bond. The "long bond" is a futures contract on the 30-year U.S. treasury bond. This contract has been in an uptrend for nearly 29 years, from a bottom in 1982. The trendline lays somewhere around 114 to 115, depending upon how accurately you draw it. This was an important topic back in February. For example, here's a thread from 2/9/11:
With the decision made to let the dollar die in order to preserve The Ponzi, the long bond suddenly reversed and has since traded much higher.
Let's judge the practical, short-term impact of this decision by looking at our three favorite dollar-destruction hedges. First, here's crude:
Oh, that's right. The politicians want you to believe that its the oil companies and the evil, scawy specuwators that are driving oil higher. Anything to deflect the blame from themselves.

Now look at gold:
If you haven't yet protected yourself and purchased "wealth insurance" by buying gold, its OK. There's still time. But, if your normalcy bias and blind faith in the status quo keep you from buying some in the future in the face of all the evidence that the dollar is dying, you are the proverbial fool who deserves to be separated from his money.

Lastly, take a look at silver. As we know, silver is also being propelled by some, shall we say "enhanced", fundamentals. Regardless, this performance is stunning and reflects a grass roots, everyday-citizen demand for protection against fiat destruction. My advice is to get some, and take delivery, while you still can.
Finally, the intention here is not to say that the demise of the dollar is imminent. The death of the dollar is similar to that of a terminally-ill, cancer patient. There will be good days. There will be moments of hope. The dollar will bounce, probably from the area around 72. The long bond will peak and consolidate in the area around 124. The PMs will correct again soon giving you another buying opportunity. In the end, however, the fate of the dollar was sealed over the weekend of Super Bowl 45. The Packers won but we all lost. For the Steelers, there's always next year. For us, nothing but an uncertain and perilous future.


  1. Scary stuff, Turd. Scary.

  2. the saddest part to all of this insanity and nonsense is those that still do not understand....

  3. (From Last Thread)


    Know that your home equity loan may be recourse. Ask an attorney from your state.

    What this means, is that if you tap your home's equity to buy stuff, whether PM's or what not, then if you strategically default, the lender may be able to come after you for what is owed if they cannot sell the house for enough to cover the loan and the late fees, etc.

    In California, generally, a purchase money loan is non-recourse. So, a typical home buyer plunks down some coins, gets a first mortgage, and the lender takes a security interest against the home. If the buyer defaults, the lender is only allowed to take the security, i.e., the house, and CANNOT go after the buyer for any deficiency.

    So, if homeowner borrows $500,000 on an 80/20 loan, with no money down, the house tanks in value and is now worth $250,000, the buyer can simply say sayonara and walk. The bank is limited to taking back the house, selling it and then eating the loss. The bank cannot sue the buyer for the difference owed.

    If a loan is recourse, which typically happens when a buyer does a refinance [no points, no costs, just sign here!], that means that the bank gets to take the house, and can still go after the buyer for the difference.

    So, your state law must be known, before you embark on such a strategy, and the specific contract terms must be carefully studied. Definitely go get advice from a lawyer. Pay the $1,000 for peace of mind.

    With that said, buying physical now at a low rate seems to be a pretty good arbitrage strategy. Definitely do not do so with any intent to default on the loan, else you may be charged with fraud, or sued for fraud in a civil court.

    These are general themes, and certainly not intended to operate as legal advice for your own situation. I am sure you understand.

  4. Here is what James Turk says about the dollar on a King World News interview:

  5. Man - it is all so obvious when you see the light - and Turd, you explain it so well, and catch the practical implications.

    Eric - didn't mean to ignore you - I have bookmarked the links you provided and they are exactly what I needed. I had Googled around, but it is confusing, and I think people might cheat with the type of ounces, as I did see at least one coin claiming it was .715. Given that I multiplied the value using US $50 as the price, it worked out just fine.

  6. Turd,
    What a great post! Well thought out and clearly illustrates your point in such an easy to follow way.
    Your efforts as always are appreciated.

  7. What I find über tragic is the fact that those that have least get crushed most. Food and gas prices skyrocketing, yet the Bernanks' main concern seems to be the $10MM+ mansions market deflation.

  8. This is just a continuation of the pillaging that has been ongoing since 1913; the year the Fed AND income tax was foisted upon the American people.

    We are in the end game here. TPTB do not care how many lives they snuff in their unlimited quest for CONTROL. That's right, they have more money than they can ever spend (they CREATE it for goodness sake). So, ultimately, total POWER and CONTROL is their goal. Total subjugation of the WORLD.

    And they have bought and paid for so there is no hope the politicians will help us.

    What can you do?

  9. BTW, great post!
    Love your work. I always get all excited and my hands start shaking whenever I see that big shiny yellow hat suddenly appear on twitter. ;-)

  10. Any updates on everyones GPR 37.50 order? I see a charge on my CC statement, so hopefully we should start seeing shipment notifications soon.

  11. just in case this post shows up, I want to than k the turd as well
    , when CNBS merges with ESPN we''ll have daily updates on all the news that's fit to print!
    We just may well look back to Feb 2011 as a key time. Later

  12. @Ca Lawyer,

    thanks for the insight and of course no legal advice expected or received.

    And no intention to default even though re reading my post I can see how you might think that...I am prone to hyperbole.

    In this present environment it seems prudent to explore all the options and opportunities at hand for sure.

    Home is paid so would need to drop 75% before any issues with selling to recoup loss would occur. not to say that isn't possible but we are in a stable area no bubbles here up or down. it is the taxes that will kill our values eventually IMHO.

    will take your advise and seek some counsel and accounting advise as well as also considering cashing the IRAs/401Ks out as well.

    thanks again,

  13. Jeezus on a rollercoaster! How do we fix/rebuild this fracked up mess? I can't see an outcome that doesn't result in a New Dollar, from a Citi-like 1 for 10 reverse split.

  14. This comment has been removed by the author.

  15. Jai/Brad/Curmudgeonly/Huxley

    Great Avatar! But Gee Whiz, just pick a name and stick with it already!

    I'm expecting my Centenario any day now!! I'll let you know.

  16. Probably everyone on here has heard of FOFOA and his blog, but just in case someone has not, he has written an article titled "Hyperinflation vs Deflation".

    It is long but it is the best article I have ever read about why and how this is happening. It would benefit EVERYONE to read it and try to wrap your mind around what he is saying. This is the article that changed Rick Ackermans mind about deflation, he had previously preached deflation to the heavens.

    Hyperinflation is coming and there is NO way to stop it, the dye has been cast,the dollar is dead.

    "You don't ahve to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun your buddy!"

  17. California Lawyer

    Oregon here is a recourse state so far as I know, but what I don't know is how that might inhibit Countrywide/BofA/MERS ability to force the issue in the event of my default. I do plan on paying all off eventually, however, I'm not even sure they could convey clear title to me upon payoff!

    My big question is how is credit card debt would be treated now since the many changes of the past few years. Do they have any recourse in the event of a rise in interest rates and their customer telling them to go pack sand, principle is all they'll get.

    I think there are many Turdlings who do plan on taking a portion of their PMs to get into a totally free and clear position at some point along this long trail we are on. I do pity the poor people who we have tried to inform of the upcoming events and have ignored any chances to prepare in any way.

  18. @ Swiftboat Vet

    I am one of those happy Turdlings that will gladly exercise my opportunity to pay off some debts incurred over the last few years with $ earned in options and PMs :).

  19. Turd, is the earlier mentioned 3 week period from now still to be taken in account? Should we let things play out first?

    Btw. impressive, educational stuff you're writing.


    thoughts on heavy silver selling by public



  22. So when the dollar gets to 72 it will rebound higher and PM prices will drop temporary? but how about for PM priced in euros? will there be a drop at all then? will the euro loss be roughly the same like the PM drop? any suggestions here, would appreciate

  23. @E Yes, I spoke to GP regarding my order and it is in the system. Order should be shipped by Tuesday/Wednesday. :)

    @ California Lawyer (from last thread) Excellent post. I couldn't agree more.

    Like you, I believe we are watching a long term currency devaluation as opposed to an event with a particular date. It's only when the real SHTF that we will want to be ready to cover any outstanding debts. You have a great list of signs to watch for.

    Watching society as the wealth gap between social classes widens (in a general sense) is high on my list. Once the MSM starts talking about the devastating effect on the middle class; once social unrest begins; once the resident experts/politicians/ lawyers/ populace/etc start questioning whether gov’t policy is exploiting the middle class and has rendered them poor... that’s my “The last lifeboat will be leaving shortely” cue to be completely debt free. By that time smart money will long have been in assets that have increased in terms of existing FRN’s (and can be revalued in a new form of FRN), the middle class will be holding existing FRN’s that buy a fraction of what they once did and TPTB will have been hard at work ensuring their wealth in terms of debt owed is maintained in the new system.

  24. I am going to find my copy of Morzart's Requiem and re-read the post while listening to it, I think that would be an appropriate accompniment.

    BTW I thank you Turd, I started reading your blog when you first started posting and, due to your wisdom, have been working to protect my family from the coming storm. Thanks.

  25. Eric#1... Just got that big 50 peso in the mail.
    It feels and looks great. Very happy with it.
    You'll soon see :-)
    It's beautiful, big and heavy. Just right!

    Still waiting on that St. Gaudens and other things from APMEX. After reading TF above, I'm glad I'm taking delivery of more Ag/Au soon.

  26. trader dan norcini said,

    if silver hits this gap next week 46.70-47.15 and holds, he expects it to shoot back up to 50 ... however if it bottoms out it will test 45 ... akin to what TF is saying...

    TD also said huge selloffs last week in silver and he is a lil shy on silver, anyhow, his thoughts were in that link I left a couple posts back

  27. "Pro-Iranian officers in Syria's ruling clique plot coup against Assad"

    April 30, 2011

    " of intensified Iranian intelligence and logistical intervention. The opposition is already receiving a constant flow of weapons organized by Saudi intelligence and smuggled in from Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon. The quantities are beyond control of Syrian army and security forces. More direct help from Iran is essential...
    ...that until now Assad has restricted incoming Iranian aid to ammunition and anti-riot equipment – fresh supplies of which Iranian military aircraft landed in..."


  28. SLV running up Enormous Volume

    It seems as if Silver has caught the attention of the trading/investing public in a significant way based on the enormous volumes being recorded in both the Comex silver market and the IShares Silver Trust or SLV.

    The volume in the Comex, especially on Monday, was so large that I initially thought it was a typo and would be corrected by the exchange. It was not. That day the volume of contracts traded hit a whopping 319,000!

    Not to be outdone, SLV registered a volume of nearly 190 MILLION shares. To give you an entire of how massive this was, consider that an average daily volume comes in near 35 - 40 million with an occasionally busy day hitting closer to 50 million.

    I find this especially disconcerting as it tells me that there is the potential for a lot of froth forming in the market. Please understand, this is not to say that the bull run in silver is over; far from it, as I fully expect silver to trade closer to $100 before all is said and done, particularly if the Dollar drops below 68 on the USDX. However, with volume this large and so much interest in owning the metal, it might need to take a bit of a breather before moving higher into a new upleg.

    That would provide a lot of bulls who are nervous about buying at these levels an opportunity to acquire more of the metal at a better price. Rignt now the metal is unable to move past $50 - that means if a trader buys in now at these levels, he has the potential to make perhaps $1.50 on the trade before it stalls out again while the potential for the market to fall as low as $45 exists, a drop of some $3.00 or so from current levels. That is a risk/reward level of 1:2 to the downside. Those are not good trading odds which is why we are seeing some speculators selling up near $50. They want to see the price clear this level before feeling comfortable coming back in on the buy side up here.

    Should the market move lower and especially if it were to for some reason take out $45 on the downside, the risk/reward ratio begins to improve tremendously. Would-be longs will then we looking for an entry point once they feel that the market has established a decent base of support from which to move higher.

  29. SILVER Commitment of Traders Report

    The CFTC COT data released this afternoon confirms what the daily exchange data has been telling us - open interest is declining as price moves higher due to short covering on the part of the commercial/swap dealer categories and long liquidation from managed money.

    The data can lead to erroneous conclusions however from those who are not all that well versed in interpretting it however. Because the data covers the period from Tuesday to Tuesday, it picked up the huge spike higher towards $50 in Asian trading this past Sunday evening. It also caught the spike lower from off of that level which resulted in a drop all the way down below $45. That was a price swing of nearly $5.00 in less than two days' time. It was during that swing lower that the commercials were covering shorts.

    What appears to be happening at this point is that we are getting commercial and swap dealer short covering on any intraday price dips in the market with managed money selling whenever the price moves higher towards $50. In other words, large specs are selling the rally toward $50 while commercials are buying the dips towards $45 to cover shorts. As long as this occurs, $50 will hold fast and will not be breached. It will take a change in psychology for managed money to be willing to buy silver up near and then above $50. If that occurs, the price will move towards $55.

    The flip side to this is that $45 should hold on any downside moves provided this commercial short covering is maintained. If they pull in their bids, price will not be able to hold support near $45 and then we will see more significant selling, this time from speculators who are forced out selling into the weakness. Such an event will be tied somewhat to the substantial hike in margin requirements imposed by the CME Group since it will not take much of a move lower to completely wipe out the entirety of the margin required for one single silver contract. This is where the small speculator becomes quite vulnerable as they have a rather sizeable net long position in this market.

    Here is the scenario - as long as price moves higher, the margin hike will not affect the small specs because their long positions will be in the money and it will not become an issue. When it does become an issue however is when prices fall and trigger stop loss selling which cascades. Then paper drawdowns or losses mount quickly and margin calls go out to the smaller specs who go underwater.

    Next week will be key to where we go next as far as whether we get a new leg higher through $50 or we set back to first test support down near $45 provided the gap region between $47.15 - $46.70 fails to hold on the test lower.

  30. DarkPurp
    Yeah, I can't wait. I actually saw one in a shop yesterday, but he wanted way too much for it. Mine is in the mail.

    Glad to see you are still around. Seemed pretty quiet for a few days and I was starting to think you'd been hacked or something.

    Swapped in a different avatar picture just for you.

  31. Silver squeeze.

    Well the amazing dichotomy between the action in Gold and Silver yesterday, has two possible explanations. One of course is standard JPM manipulation.Its their month end too.

    The other is the monthend unwinding of yet another of these infernal hedge fund paired trades. Most of these involve long the two metals and short (often naked) an equivalent or algo driven number of precious metal shares,This is a big reason the shares are pigs.

    Would the authorities intervene to shut down naked shorting. It thoroughly suits them , it discourages interest in the sector. Its like asking the CFTC to honour their mandate. Right, and bart Chilton can suck my anaconda, he is simply the good cop in a good cop / bad cop shakedown. At least Gensler is an identifiably honest crook. Sorry, i digress.

    I think the trade that did get unwound and mammothly on Friday, was a long silver short gold hedge, basically playing the incredible recent collapse in the silver gold ratio as silver exploded. It was month end bonus time for the robots. Fucking propellor heads.Did their trade work, unfortunately it did.

  32. as much as i love silver it has moved up too fast and too high. Expect a correction next week...hope im wrong.

  33. Turd,

    Just want to say; Thanks again for taking the time and sharing your wisdom with us.

    It seems like after the words of Big Ben all went into acceleration....we may assume that the 4th of february will be a historical date.

    The PM's fundaments are superstrong however, normalcy bias - status quo...Overhere in The Netherlands if I tell friends to buy PM's, two things can happen, or:

    1) They say: naahhh already too late for that market, bubbles/peaks etc.

    2) Staring like a goat, like I speak f**kin Chinese! (maybe obligated in future, who knows :-) silver/gold, isnt that material to make wedding rings and necklaces?? (If you thought American people do not own PM's in general....what do you think about the Europeans??? The only thing they own is worthless paper as they soon will find out!
    Next couple of months will be very interesting and I will keep telling people to protect themselves!!

    Turd Ferguson, again thank you for al the valuable information on your fantastic blog!


  34. Turd your makeing gas prices rise!!

    cut it out!!!

    Unfreaking beliveable , It has nothing to do with the dollar dropping , or the fact that every other commodity has been riseing or the mid east in flamefuckball of fire,

    It sure aint inflation Due thier policys!!! dont look there,thats conspirecy talk!

  35. Thanks, Turd. I always examine charts from a technical perspective (but within a fundamental framework) in order to arrive at an understanding of what I think will occur, and then I make my trading decisions based upon that understanding. Only after I have arrived at my own conclusions will I check out what others are saying since I don't want my decision making to be biased or unduly influenced by others, good as their intentions might be (such a dependance on others has often led to bad trades in the past; hey, what can I say other than a man's gotta learn how to stand on his own two feet and know his limitations, otherwise he'll never overcome those limitations).

    Anyway, and long story short, I appreciate your musing very much as I have assimilated a bit of your "chartology" and incorporated it with mine, and I have profited a bit more than I otherwise would have. Plus I appreciate your take-no-prisoners attitude in showing the emperor to be the fat, naked, wrinkly, hairy-assed ogre that he is (you may not be first in line for a Fed governor's job considering your attitude, but you've got an appreciative reader here who similarly dislikes being fed sugar-coated bullshit and is glad you're out there).

    Keep on rocking, Turd. Keep on rocking.

  36. Jim RIckards interview today on KWN is classic. He always lays out the Fedspeak better and clearer than anyone else.

  37. Silver Squeeze.

    It might be instructive to look back at the Silver chart in August.This is when it took a sharp left hand turn , the trading pattern is stunningly different, something is happening.

    Here is what it is. A Prospectus hit the SEC. In about September 2010. For a Physical Silver Trust, now known as PSLV . This was somewhat cunning. The same issuer had already done a Physical Gold Trust, with a billion dollar open ended shelf, so, he struck out the word Gold, and substituted the word Silver.

    Here we have to understand Governments, those that can do, those that cannot go into Government. I assure you there is an SEC clerk wearing the heavy footwear in the Potomac.

    This guy effed up epically, and approved this ostensibly uninteresting Prospectus for a billion dollar Physical Silver Trust, from some Canadian in Toronto.Some nobody.

    Very big Mistake bud. He probably thought the issue might be 25 or 50 million, some innocuous Canadian, waved it through the process UNDER THE IMPRIMATUR of the prior Physical Gold Trust, it looked identical after all, and never gave it a second thought.

    This as we know is PSLV. The issuer is Sprott, and he is not a billionaire, and an honest one by accident.

    Did he know how much he would sell? Perhaps not,(he could , in default simply have taken it all personaly if the SEC balked but he began buying Silver in August. Go back and look at the chart. The whole character of the silver market changes in August. A sharp left turn we are still in.

    24 to 48.

    As it turned out , the issue went out the window, full green shoe, oversubscribed, in the end it was 580 million, which hit the physical silver market like a Japanese village in March. This was November 2010.

    How could the SEC have been so witless as to approve this game changing prospectus, which revealed that for size, there is no supply of physical silver.

    because they are dumb Government fucksquibbles thats why, somebody blundered.

  38. Now the games begin.

    PSLV holders know that the deal is your silver is held (after being ruthlessly audited) under the Royal Canadian Mint in Ottawa Canada. Is it there? Look, its there.

    But a problem arose...the issue closes in late November, Sprott puts the proceeds (your money) up at Comex,and , um, er, letss go, whers the phys, wheres the metal.

    Long story short, they didnt have it. It took 90 days to get, and Sprott had sharp eyed men monitoring every delivery to Ottawa.

    All the bars were NEW!!!, they had just been refined, some, figuratively speaking, were still warm from the refinery. But what about the Comex and LBMA inventory.

    He had to source 580 million dollars of physical silver FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD, and something that should have taken 72 hours to deliver in a Brinks truck from New York to Ottawa, took 90 days. Its there now. In April 2011. 90 days, why i have served sentences as long as that!!

  39. Fade Brandon Lang, not Turd!

  40. great advice for new people to the blog who want to understand how turd and others trade the metals - one of the best things i've found is to go back and read the comments for all turds posts. On your browser open every post in April and use "ctrl + f" to find keywords, then read all the posts with those keywords in. Then go and do March etc

    Keywords to look for:
    1. "options"
    2. "forex"
    3. "xag/usd"

    you'll find great ways to trade with options, buy and hold forex

    Also take close notes of the following users comments. I like to stand on shoulders of giants and learn:
    1. OldNavy,
    2. Pailin,
    3. averagejoe,
    4. Kumanari,
    5. Silver Cell,
    6. eric

  41. Silver Squeeze 4.

    Look, there is an expression for this , its called blood in the water, the fractional silver banking system, exposed by that retarded Jeff Christian at the CFTC hearing in March 2010. If i ever do meet the redoubtable Mr Christian, who said thare were up to a hundred paper siver contracts for every ounce of physical , i will kiss him i swear i will , after i have him down cuz i kicked him in the nuts...on spec.This guy made me and this board a fortune with one colossally brainless statement. Fractional reserve banking in silver.And here come the sharks, USS Indianapolis.

    Sprott has an open ended Billion dollar shelf prospectus SEC approved, he could come and do another 420 of his billion anytime he wants. which would put silver at 70 to 80. Or pick your number.

    There is no physical silver in any material size and it is probably worse than it was last fall..I call this the Gentlemans Silver Corner, the CFTC hearing with Mcguire blew apart the scam, the issue came that fall, and here we are.

    The reincarnation of Nelson and Bunker Hunt.

  42. I'm always harping about how gold and silver have nowhere to go but up as long as we have negative real interest rates. In that KWN interview referenced above, Jim Rickards goes into that issue nicely. Explains it better than I normally do. Highly recommended.

  43. +1

    Listened to the interview earlier and enjoyed it a lot.

  44. I am just a stacker, and a miner stock "buy and hold" guy, but I read all the posts. The attitudes here are generous and professional.

    Congratulations Turd, on creating a valueable resource for hundreds/thousands.

    Things I don't like: when a commenter states "silver will drop to 32 or whatever ridiculously low amount" before it resumes its upward trend (followed by no explanation of how that conculsion came about).

    Things I like: When a delayed delivery of ASEs finally arrives and is already worth 20% more than when I ordered.

  45. A couple weeks back we had a discussion regarding natural gas.

    I gave a capsule summary of the natgas business and noted that the midstream segment had quite a few master limited partnerships formed last year.

    On CNBC Friday some guy was talking about mutual funds specializing in buying midstream MLPs and how they should have a high and growing dividend rate, making them better than a fixed rate bond or bond fund.

    If mutual funds are buying them, and even being formed to specialize in them, this could be just the start of the party.

  46. Here's a nice little quip from Jim Rickards' twitter feed.

    JamesGRickards Jim Rickards
    My audience of Dutch pensions was attentive but got grumpy in part when I explained US would not be paying them them back in real dollars
    28 Apr Favorite Retweet Reply

    Follow Jim at
    search for JamesGRickards

  47. Silver Squeeze 5.

    WEll, they will have to do something.

    Its anybodys guess how many billion dollars JPM has "lost" shorting silver after taking over the Bear Stearns book. .

    I would submit that they have not lost a penny. The US Treasury is similarly unharmed.

    So how does JPM get compensated for these catastrophic hits. . A phone call, inside information, frontrunning, probably a one to one relationship, very probably James Dimon, given the sensitivity of the situation.JPM is an arm of the US Government, pure and simple.

    They get paid in financially exploitable information.Some horse trading undoubtedly takes place and JPM MAKES MONEY, they dont lose, they are not in their racket to lose.

    There has never been a whistleblower,over these many years of rampant criminality, be it, Goldman, Citi, pick em, which is statistically highly improbable .

    Because its one to one, no money formally changes hands and there is no paper trail. The required offset to the silver losses gets extracted from the market place.JPM could give jack shit about the price of silver, it just raises the information ante. How cute.

  48. Don

    What do you think of some of the old trusts that around such as HGT, for a relatively safe way to play a little natgas and get some distributions?

  49. I think people are flocking here because of insights they're not getting anywhere else. Thanks TF for the big picture - it's like an aerial view - puts things in perspective.
    So silver is up over 65% since Feb. Funny, seems like my silver stocks are down since then. I hope this site will address the metals stocks issues, as a lot of people who believe in precious metals are holding the related equities and it's not a pretty scene right now.

  50. Colin - I agree that $50 might be a psychological barrier, but I don't get this part of your reasoning:

    "In other words, large specs are selling the rally toward $50 while commercials are buying the dips towards $45 to cover shorts. As long as this occurs, $50 will hold fast and will not be breached. It will take a change in psychology for managed money to be willing to buy silver up near and then above $50. If that occurs, the price will move towards $55." But why wouldn't they buy the dips around $45 too? I think they are, and that silver has a very firm floor at that price. After the way it held up on Friday, with London closed, I think we are going to see it shoot through $50 on Sunday night, and that on Monday in New York will see $50 as the new floor.

    DPH - great to have you back! I am waiting on Apmex and Gainsville - but Eric #1 keeps finding more and more beautiful coins - gack!

    Eric - that is a great avatar. My goal in terms of physical and silver vs gold is to now focus on gold. We were gold heavy before we caught the silver bug, and now it is time to regain the earlier balance. But paper-wise, I am still going with heavy on the silver side.

    Vamoose - interesting - it would be great to see Sprott do it again - I hadn't heard about the bars Sprott got being newly minted - and it should not have taken that long to fill his order.

  51. R man J - with you on the things you don't like - and when one requests some back up reasoning, they vanish into the ether.

  52. queencatbird - that has certainly been the topic of much discussion - search through the comments over the last few days and you will find a lot of good information and speculation about the lagging miners.

  53. I think I must have watched this Economics hip-hop video about 10 times in the last few days... I can't get over how awesome it is! Took me about 5 times of watching it before I grasped everything they were saying.

    Fight of the Century: Keynes vs Hayek Round 2

    Here's the first one as well.

    (click links to play)
    If you grasp what these videos are saying is that essentially the economy is centrally planned and why everyone for the last couple of years has been hanging of every word the Bernanke speaks - because he sets the market trends if you can:
    a) Decipher his lingo
    b) Understand when to believe him and when not to

    In short, the days of buy and hold (stocks), or trading based on PE ratios or other fundamentals is mostly over. Everything becomes meaningless when the currency you trade in is debased, and hundreds of billions are "slushed around" to keep the "CIRCULAR FLOW" going.
    (click to play)

    "The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist" - John Keynes

    We're all Keynesians now folks... inflate or die! Savers will get crushed.

  54. Thanks xty

    Really can't decide between the 50 peso avatar, or this one of the eagle side of a St. Gaudens, or my regular little viking. The viking is nice because that red and white sail really catches my eye if I'm quickly scrolling back trying to find one of my old posts. I'll probably just rotate them according to my mood. When I'm really full of the spirit on gold (more than usual) I'll probably put one of those coins up. Search for a few new ones too.

  55. to: AgApe

    I saw an earlier post of yours where you said your account is up 1,200% since January. I would sure like to talk to you as mine is up, but nothing near that and I know there are things I can be doing differently.... like taking profits more often.

    Please e-mail me if you don't mind sharing some advice on investing/trading.

    My name is Rich.

    My e-mail is

    Thanks if you have time. if not, I understand.

  56. great blog, great comments ...nice to be here for the first time. its amazing and also astonishing to read all those articles of you turd thanks for that...

    I`m invested in silver and gold since 2008 only physical 80%/20% I`m looking for the next dip to buy more...hope june could get also this guy says

    sorry for my broken english, german citizen ...;)..Turd love the layout of this site, hope the new one looks the same.

  57. xty

    I went from probably 1994 to 2009 with 100% gold, no silver to speak of at all. Really levered up on a bunch of both in 2010 and brought it to probably 2:1 gold. Market action alone took that to more like 4:3 gold. Getting the itch to, at a minimum, get back to 2:1. Down the road, 3:1, and then ?????

    This is physical only of course. For paper, I do a lot of things. Gold, silver, oil, TIP's, utilities. For a while I had a lot of McDonald's and Family Dollar. Not anymore.

  58. Eric,
    I should start off by saying I really haven't considered them specifically. I did own some Mesa Offshore Royalty Trust units a very long time ago and I remember that the value of the units fell faster than the trust was paying out its monthly distributions.

    Just reading its blurb on Google Finance says that XTO Energy, which created the trust, doesn't own any of its units anymore. And if it's already been around for 12 years, just how long-lived are those gas fields?

    I dunno, I guess I would approach it cautiously.

  59. The historical pillars of wealth were, until the last hundred odd years, gold, silver, and land. Are we forgetting land in our planning for the death of the dollar? A farm purchased with say 25% down, at a fixed interest rate would in effect only cost you the 25% down, as inflation will make the other 75% essentially worthless (the mortgage debt part). The key would be in finding a source of income from the land, via hunting rights if it is forested, or renting out farm land, as we cannot predict the timing of the dollar's demise, and we do not want to tie up our free cash flow with mortgage payments. Is it time to be looking for land?


    why are they covering the shorts if silver is about to drop?

    Interesting. Thats a large amount of contracts to be covered in Silver especially at these prices. Now if I was JPM and I knew where the price of silver (or anything is going since THEY are the market) WHY WOULD YOU COVER AT ALL TIME HIGHS?
    If silver was truly in bubble territory they would have added to the shorts and covered at a much lower price. Something BIG is about to happen. This is a HUGE tell

  61. Erick#1 - As per avatar selection I will just say that life is full of difficult decisions and I am sure with some deep concentration you will come to the correct conclusion. I had do do some real soul searching to settle on mine! LOL

    Canned chunk beef report. Great over rice with a little left over gravy. Better than chopped beef. Will order some more.

  62. Eric #1 - do you mean dollar value or ounces, if that isn't a silly question? I use to think in ounces, but that muddies the water - but dollar value keeps moving. We started collecting gold just because, if you know what I mean. As to avatars, the 50 peso just shone - it was a great picture. But I liked the pirate ship too - easy to spot, and nicely goofy - reminds one not to get too serious and lose perspective.

  63. Don


    I owned some of these several years ago. Mostly SJT as I recall. They can track nat gas pretty well. Pretty good in a natgas bull market, OK for income in a flat market, a horror show in a natgas bear market. You hit the nail on the head as far as the problem though. The average investor has a heck of a time getting a handle on just what exactly is in there, what the reserve life really is, what the royalty terms really are, etc. They do feel dicey that way.

    Kind of like BPT. That's an oil trust. And people see it perform really well, tracking oil, etc. And they think it looks great to buy as an oil play. But if you really dig into the details, you find that the distributions could just drop right off the table down to dead flat zero if production drops to a certain level. As one of the little fish investors, I guarantee that we'll be the last to find out.

  64. Yes, johnboat, you win for greatest avatar of all time!

  65. xty

    Talking comparative dollar value in all those ratios. two ounces of gold and around 32 ounces of silver, when converted to $$$ would be about 2:1.

    It's a viking longship with a happy little viking on there, not a pirate ship. Fits with Eric the Red, a moniker I've sometimes used. Not that vikings weren't pirates. Well, I digress....

  66. @F I was about to repost the same thing.

    I think he's actually made a very good point.

    We observed huge amounts of short covering - that's a fact. BUT WHY WOULD YOU COVER NOW (AT $45-$50) IF YOU COULD DO IT, SAY, AT $35 OR $25 (lots of topcallers give those as next 'correction' targets)?

  67. Yes, the question of what makes a pirate seems to depend on who is telling the history. But a Viking ship it obviously is, however I do tend to think you have some pirate blood in your gold-loving veins. And I don't mean that in a bad way!

    F - good point - and it fits right in with the massive MSM recent top-calling - they need people to sell at this price because they know they are on the brink of disaster. I feel the same way about the PSLV trash talking - Sprott is their enemy.

  68. johnboat
    Yes, I preferred the beef chunks to the canned ground beef. Still have chicken, turkey, and pork to try. I was at the asian food store yesterday and bought a can of the canned cheese.

  69. xty

    For a pirate maybe I should try this one.

  70. re SilverGoldSilver - it can't be a bull trap because they are covering the contracts, not going short. A bull trap is when they convince the bulls that the market is going higher, and short it, knowing it is going lower.

    "What Does Bull Trap Mean?
    A false signal indicating that a declining trend in a stock or index has reversed and is heading upwards when, in fact, the security will continue to decline."

    Saving atlee from explaining it again.

  71. Great riches are coming to those who hold silver mining shares..Patience and BTFD.

  72. re SilverGoldSilver - that he is wrong that it could be a bull trap (because they cannot hide the shorts, right?) is even MORE bullish - not a problem with his main point, which is a very good one.

    Eric #1 - how's this wench for an avatar?

  73. This comment has been removed by the author.

  74. Shill - great article - and the one before it was interesting too, calling silver an inverse bubble - and calling for some seriously high values - $160 to $400 - but he makes it sound very reasonable.


  75. Slow down Peter, slow down. You will lose $5000 per $1 movement down also. People here who have a much larger base than you have (it is a fantastic start...congrats!) still feel that the step into full contracts etc is a step too far.

    Don't let me put a damper on your enthusiasm, but I would advise a more conservative approach. JMHO

  76. gold IS for pirates! lol. I went with a peace dollar for my icon now, the explosion was getting me down. Liberty never looked so fine;)

  77. xty

    Maybe this could be our theme song. The "talk like a pirate day song"

  78. Peter Heart - take heart (I'll bet that's an old joke) - you did the right thing - physical metal is the bottom line here. If you want to invest, maybe you should look at options - go back and search for Ginger's posts over the last few weeks - she started with a very small stake and has more than tripled it, following advice here, reading a bunch and not getting too greedy.

  79. Peter - but you better stop blaming other people if you are going to invest - how can you possible say you have been reading these sites for months and had no clue there were other ways to invest? And then have all those detailed questions? Good grief. What did you think AGQ meant? Or when Turd talks about buying May calls, etc. I am stunned.

  80. SilverBleve

    Peter Heart
    Careful!! Huge leverage in silver (or anything) can cut both ways. Always leave yourself enough of a margin for safety that you can live to fight again another day if things go badly against you. You are contemplating going all in. A $3 down day in silver could nearly wipe you out. Don't kid yourself that it can't happen. In fact it's almost certain to happen somewhere along the line.

    Also, don't ever look back at trades. Learn from them, sure. But don't ever look back at woulda coulda shoulda's. You bought silver and made a profit. You won. Go forward.

  81. Eric #1 - we have that pirate lego, and I actually have a bumper sticker on my truck that says "Get in touch with your Inner Pirate" - and one day, like JohnBoatCat, we hope to set sail for at least 4 months of the year. I have a yearning for the Bahamas, and have always wanted a geiger counter - can imagine spending many a day combing beaches for treasure to add to our chest. And there is the Georgian Bay in the summers. I sure hope for once in my life I am on the right side of the bubble. Arrrr.

  82. The largest stockpile of gold in the world. It just hit me that the gold the US owns has just got to be repriced to an amount that makes it what it truly is, namely the largest stockpile of wealth in the world. When priced at current US dollar prices it doesn't even come close to what it truly is. I don't know what the number is, but it's a lot higher than 1550.

  83. @ Eric

    "Also, don't ever look back at trades. Learn from them, sure. But don't ever look back at woulda coulda shoulda's"

    Great advice. That's my biggest problem. Constantly beating myself up for missed opportunities. Must do better.

  84. tyonk

    People have looked at that issue in terms of what kind of a gold price would it take to back a new gold backed currency. Depending on what kind of numbers they use for money supply, I think they usually come up with numbers between 3000 and 10000 per ounce. Arrrgghhh!!

  85. Yesterday as I drove down the Interstate I was passed by a white pick up truck. On the tailgate the word "Blythe" was written in large black letters.

    A sign perhaps?

  86. This comment has been removed by the author.

  87. So what's better? Buy physical and watch it appreciate from $40 an ounce to $200, or trade SLV options and make gains in fiat of perhaps 25% every trading day? The options route has got to be the way to go.

  88. This comment has been removed by the author.

  89. Fred

    Thankey mate, aarrr!!!

    Yeah, we all got enough to worry about with our current positions, without rehashing the old ones. Never look back. You bought, you sold. You won, you lost. It's over. It's dust. Think about next one.

  90. I stared my first stack in 1962 when my brother and I found a real pirate treasure buried near our home. A Capt. Miller had stashed it in the 1930's. He was more of a rum runner kind of pirate than you cut throats. $1000.00 face value in silver and gold coins. Still have them.

    New avatar is a baseball size chunk of silver ore I brought back from Mexico 40 years ago. Very rich mine. Paid a quarter for it, so I think we both got a good deal if the guy still has the quarter.

  91. Peter,

    All your savings could be gone if you had tried trading.

    As things stand, you are up. And up in a nice way.

    Be happy

  92. How do I read the long bond chart?

    122'22 means what? As the chart is going up that means price of treasury of that bond, I assume the 30 year is down?

  93. I think somebody got up on the wrong side of the bed today!

  94. @ Peter,

    There's a lot of books out there about the futures markets, but the one I most recommend is Jake Bernstein's "How the Futures Markets Work". Easy to read and straight to the point. Maybe a copy of "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" would help as well. Many nuggets of wisdom in there for anyone looking to trade, whether stocks or commodities. After that, set up an account with about 10 to 20K and dabble with one mini at a time, but be sure to rid yourself of all emotion before embarking on trading. No hope, no fear, no greed, no nothing (drain all of the blood from your veins, if need be, and replace it with ice water). Look at thousands of charts from every angle imaginable, trying to see them within the context of the fundamentals which produce them, be happy with every beating that the market gives you (a beating is better than a reward, provided you learn from it), and after many moons, you may stand a 10% chance of making a living in commodities, feeding off the other 90% who lose. Or you can just hold your physical and accumulate. Nothing wrong with that.

  95. fishy
    That is the price of a bond, with a "par" of 100. The specific price really isn't important. What's important is that price and yield are inverse to each other. Higher price, lower interest rate. Lower price, means higher rates, which is what the ponzi cannot tolerate.


  96. johnboat

    That sounds really really cool!! aarrr!!

    Heading out to run the dogs, so you guys will get a break from the pirate crap for a while.

  97. Peter, or whoever wants to start trading with leverage: open a demo account with the broker of your choice. Get a feel for the thing. It will probably be a very different experience than you expected.

  98. @Peter

    It seems to me that at your present level of understanding you couldn't have made a better decision.

    "When the student is ready, the Master appears."
    --Buddhist Proverb

  99. first time poster. someone posted above about nat gas MLPs

    I find the oil and gas pipeline MLPs to be pretty nicely structured investments that I use primarily as inflation hedges, but also as dividend income producers (which I roll back into more shares of the MLP). The MLPs have very different tax rules, which I don't completely understand, and which one should seek advice from a tax specialist regarding the implications.

    In my 401K, I have been purchasing shares of EEQ for two years and it recently underwent a 2:1 split. Its dividends are distributed in shares, not cash, supposedly more appropriate for tax protected accounts, but to be clear, I am not sure.

    In my personal account I have KMP. I am thinking about moving half of my KMP (which has also been very very good to me) into the ETF AMLP (oil,natgas,pipelines) to diversify risk, net yield of almost 5% after adjusting for expense ratio.

    I don't think the profit of pipeline MLPs responds much to increases in oil and gas prices, but in general they all typically charge the oil and gas producers rates high enough to make sure they always have positive return on investment.

  100. I enjoyed Fridays action for sure, so now that silver is obviously being held back..Lets all pound Gold real hard Turds. Just Q'ed up a nice APMEX order...Thanks Blythe/EE, every move you make I am buying...I hope others are doing the same. Going to move things around a little on Monday, buying DF and SVU...but sill long my miners and padding going forward.

    One of the finest blogs on the I-nets looking forward to a newer comment system and a new home for sure. A comment system similar to Calculated risk would benefit this community immensely. CR is my main home Turds is second, but rate them pretty much the same as far as quality.

  101. Buffet the Buffoon speaks.

  102. Liberty or Death (and I hope you opt for the former),

    Great post! Personal experience is the most valuable contribution here.

  103. @ ERIC #1


    Did you send me your email a while back regarding diff't brokers and tax import/export/ I might've missed. Have been so busy. Just wanted to ask you since you are the accountant :P

    Also, if that chart is going up, it means yields have gone down right? But at the expense of the USD since the fed is digitizing and the only buyers of any maturity of the bonds?


  104. Also, I received my SILVER from GPL. One of them shows a brown spot. I thought silver to be 99.9% pure silver?



  106. fishy
    Silver is horribly prone to tarnish. Any silver. Even Silver Eagles. Give them enough time, depending on how they are stored, and they will all turn black.

    Yes, price goes up, yields go down, even further into negative territory after inflation, USD gets weaker, commodities go higher, and on and on it goes.

    Nope, never sent you my email. And won't either, nothing personal. Just my policy. But hope you figured out the turbotax download issue.

  107. Liberty or Death

    I tend to think of the pipeline MLP's as more of a toll booth on the natgas highway. A very nice business to be in to be sure, but different from owning the gas well itself.

    WIth all of these trusts and MLP's, personally I will only own them within a 401(k) or IRA. In a taxable account the accounting for them for taxes can be a complete nightmare.

  108. Excellent breakdown, vamoose. I feel there are other forces on the buy side at work than just PSLV, but very well written nevertheless. You can search for reports and interviews by Sprott in the extensive archive of ZH, I plan to look over it myself. He was very strident exactly about the point you make -- how difficult it was for him to source the physical purchase at the time, last November/December.

    Xty & Eric, I am trying this avatar in your honor, though my original one is far more storied with pillage and plunder...


  110. @moogle fishy [ How do I read the long bond chart?

    122'22 means what? As the chart is going up that means price of treasury of that bond, I assume the 30 year is down? ]

    ........ when trading bonds in the futures market the price quoted here is 122 and 22/32nds. Each handle is worth $1000. If you but the contract at 122'22 and later sell at 123'22 you have made a $1000. If it goes up, you are betting on lower interest rates and yields. If you are shorting you are betting on the opposite. The contract trades in half tick units, so you can buy/sell at 122'225 which is 122'22.5 That 122'22 corresponds to whatever yield you see quoted for 30 year bonds with the time value/interest opportunity cost factored in.

  111. CD

    In Barbossa's honor, I would say that all these investing rules we discuss around here are really more like "guidelines" !

  112. @Eric#1

    My understanding is that with the pipeline MLPs, most of them are set up in a way that stockowner is a partner in the business, not a "shareholder". Because of being a member of the partnership (ownerof a business), the distributions (dividend) from MLP are already tax advantaged owing to the way in which the capital depreciation is managed (my accountant deals with this). My limited take on this is that the tax on the dividend ends up being the corporate/business tax on the MLP, to avoid being taxed twice. However, if you own the MLPs in a 401K, there are even more complicated tax issues, because the IRS views you as an owner of a profitable business that may be avoiding paying taxes on business profits by putting them in an IRA where they are not taxed (this could also result in you contributing more than the legally allowed 5000/yr or whatever). That is why EEQ is in my 401K, I was told (but cannot confirm, have not read applicable law) that MLPs which distribute the dividend in the form of shares (EEQ specifically) don't have this complication in a 401K, though I will have to pay taxes when I retire.

    If you are investing in MLPs, consult an accountant and keep accurate records indicating to the IRS that you made a good faith effort to be diligent about getting it right. I don't like the IRS, but I'd certainly rather be on their good side.


  113. Richard Russell discusses China and Gold Confiscation.

  114. Would any of you Turdlings care to answer a newbie COMEX question?

    COMEX silver contract margins are defined as specific dollar amounts, rather than as a predictable formula, i.e. "6% of contract price, to be adjusted after the close of trade on the last trading day of every week."

    So -- why? Why do they use specific dollar amounts rather than predictable formulas?

    At (my) first glance, the reason would appear to be obvious: so that the controllers of the COMEX can gain undue influence over their markets.

    Is there another, legitimate reason why margins should be defined as they are?

    Thanks in advance.

    ( And ... Fed delenda est. )

  115. LoD

    Well, I am an accountant. As far as I know, there are no complicating factors involved in owning an MLP in a tax deferred account. No necessary tracking of income or basis, no impacts on contribution limits. No nothing but buy it and forget it as far as I know. But hey, I could be wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.

    In a regular account, you will most definately need to pay an accountant to figure it all out for you come tax time, especially if you sell one of those things. Simplicity counts for a lot in my world so that's why I don't go there in my personal taxable accounts.

  116. atlee,
    So what's your strategy for getting in more than 25%? I noticed you've made some good calls lately.

  117. atlee,

    jeesh, where did I say that those were my thoughts, I had linked his mp3 earlier, get your panties unwadded ... was trying to help other people who might not have time to surf or didnt see it ... gawd, the thread police really need to get laid

  118. Well as the heat in hell intensifies for silver shorts. 10k shares PSLV for the old man, as we rocked and rolled last week through 3 margin hikes; silver ending up on the week. Incredible! I want to see where new money from funds goes the 1st of the month. I'll bet we see much inflows into PM's the 1st week of May. Weak silver hands shook out. Besides 10k PSLV at an average price of 16; my Dad now goes for the gold eagles this coming week. Can't believe it. Finally taking in some physical PM. Whew. Getting worried about the old man. Especially as turd signalling the race to physical delivery gets tighter. Hope all having a good weekend!

  119. atlee - hey at least I got to explain a bull trap again.

    CD - excellent avatar - arrr matey.

  120. Turd -
    About the AGQ call, pls don't sweat it. It was a very weird trade all day. When you said it, I had seen it too and I doubled up on what I had in play and I let it ride through the weekend, and you know what, I don't give red rat's ass how it plays out.. You will forever be the best in my book. Always. You are brave and true. You give me courage. I hope we beat the bastards at their own game but in the end game, I have lots of food, my Berkey, six months of insulin, a few racks of silver, a beginner gold pile, enough lead, who gives a great big shite? We'll live another day and play to win again.

    That day is called MONDAY!!! Eat shite and die Blythe!

  121. Little evening doom Pron.

  122. The prospect of wars is great news. Without a calamity, speaking strictly of economics and finance, the U.S. is doomed, periodendofstory. If it's near term world wars, I think we move back into position as the early betting favorites.

  123. Good read. Thanks. Accurate prognostication highly appreciated.
    Any ideas on protecting the 401K? Self directed Schwab account. Can't touch this for 3 more years. Yes physical is best but hyperinflatable dollar denominated 401K is distinctly vulnerable. I stick with PSLV and CEF who seem trustworthy and should rise with the tide even as POSX sinks. Any ideas appreciated.
    By the way, newbie question: what does POSX abbreviate?
    Thanks everybody for the great blog!

  124. Google Trends
    "How to buy Silver"
    New High!

  125. Great analysis, Turdmister. You rock, dude.

  126. Wallace...

    I have my core holding of physical that I do not touch. Eventually, I will convert 50%+ of it to real estate of all types.

    With my paper profits, I buy and outfit land that produces either food/agr, timber, coal or natgas.

    The plan is going well so far and I'm sticking with it.
    That's my plan,

  127. Bull

    POSX is Turdspeak for the USDX, the US Dollar Index. Stands for Piece of Sh*t Index.

    If the Turd had a nickel for every time someone asked that one, he wouldn't need a Donate button. aarrr!

  128. ""The prospect of wars is great news.""

    Not so great when someone is shooting at you.

  129. Obviously, you've never been in war.

  130. PS regarding buying land...

    I am in COMPLETE agreement with CA Lawyer regarding purchasing land with debt and paying off later with inflated FRNs, but I have this to add:

    1- while I like my "primary residence," I have NO intention of paying it off anytime soon... If/when the SHTF, I will walk away from it. If it doesn't, I'll pay it off last.

    2- my "go to" property is 100% paid for now to preclude any revaluing of anything.

    3 - I have two other chunks of land that I put minimal amounts down on and plan on paying them off with inflated FRNs. That said, I could pay them off today with my core physical PMs, but see that as a waste of resources right now.

    There are lots of ways to do this. As always, be very, very careful about over leveraging on real estate because you are banking on some combination of both PMs and dollars going to the moon in value/inflated value.

    I'm sure that some people will make fun of the "Rich Dad/Poor Dad" series of books, but Mike Maloney's book in the series "Guide to Investing in Gold and Silver" changed my life 2 or 3 years ago and COMPLETELY outlinesvthe plan for riding silver and gold up, then swapping into real estate.

  131. ""The prospect of wars is great news

    Whatever ass clown said this has never been on the two way range before.

  132. People, you don't want to buy a home yet, the housing market is going much lower, easily another 2 years to go. ARM resets won't be done until mid 2012, then add to that the queue of delayed forclosures, and it's easily mid to late 2013 before any kind of recovery even begins. By then people will be so sick of real estate, that the rise will be very slow if even significant.

    As if that wasn't enough, the LAST thing you want in a high inflationary period which has barely begun, is DEBT.

    The Federal Reserve response to high inflation will be increase interest rates... Remember, the Fed has no mandate to maintain stable housing prices.

  133. Now having said that, for those of you in the USA, assuming they let you keep the same ultra low interest rate for 20 or 30 years, then yeah, the next year or two may not be a bad time to buy a home - WITH A FIXED RATE MORTGAGE *ONLY*.

  134. Finnegan

    You either forgot your sarc tag or your brain got fried. I'm tending to believe the latter.

    OMG!! Word ver = UNDIE

  135. Irene!

    How are you?

    I went to that Asian food store that I mentioned the other day. Didn't really see a lot for canned meats, lots of fish. Bought a jar of ghee and a can of cheese, both just out of curiousity. Also laid in an extra 10# bag of basmati, just in case.

  136. Hi all,

    Worked 16 hours today lining up the ducks against on my own private EE. Want to finish up this part of my work by Sunday night so I can rejoin the fun and games here.

    Still sitting with all my pms and silver stocks. Got some more SLW this week so it had better start to perform!

    Erica, you hanging in there? I saw your comment about NOT relaxing after your purchase but it was too late to respond. ;)

    Eric #1 - you're a pirate now? Since when are vikings pirates? Vikings are vikings! Aarrrggg...

  137. Eric #1

    Well good for you. Bury that basmati with your gold out back somewhere! That's an old Indian secret. The rice is buried and aged for up to 20 -25 years and it just gets better and better and better. Less starch, more flavor, and each kernel of rice is aromatic and delicious. They don't call it the queen of rices for nuthin'! I use basmati to make risotto when I'm out of risotto rice. Works just fine too.

    Have you cooked with ghee before? It's best known for not smoking and burning when you turn up the heat like regular butter will. But it's a great way to have butter without refrigeration.

    You'll find canned meat at any store serving Pakistanis, Bangaldeshis and Arabs.

    People should also pick up lots of inexpensive but fresh spices at these stores. Cardoman, cumin, corriander, chilli powder, tumeric, fennel, cinnamon, nutmet, cloves, and millions of mixes will spice up even the blandest food. They'll easily last for 4 years. Did I forget saffron? Oh god, where would I be without saffron for fish soup?

  138. Geez... I feel bad that Atlee Got all torqued about the "after hours" chatter on here.
    I respect his experience and analysis, and look forward to reading the higher grade investment posts from him and others.
    Wish I had value based input for all every post, but some light hearted humor, and discussion of variety of topics keeps this place interesting.
    I bet the New site will help folks focus on whats of value to them.

  139. does the collapse of paper mean that stocks such as cef will be worthless too? do oil stocks become worthless? i am confused. i buy the story the ponzi must collapse but should i take that ONLY physical gold /silver will be worth anything?
    PLEASE HELP, those of you who understand this stuff.

  140. Irene
    Never used ghee. We are Wisconsin kids through and through, so we go through a ridiculous amount of butter. Just curious about the ghee, something that can sit in the bunker and be there in a pinch.

    Agree on the spices. Big bags, cheap prices. Usually more than I can use, but sometimes I'll buy it there for things we use a lot of. Dried minced garlic and onions, that sort of thing.

    I was standing in the aisle, kind of talking out loud to myself and all of a sudden this guy asks me, in an excited voice, "Have you been to the Middle East?!" I said no, but was checking out some of the stuff on the shelf. He then proceeded to go on and on about all the stuff on that part of the aisle. He just seemed thrilled that someone was interested in stuff from his homeland. Kind of fun.

  141. "'The prospect of wars is great news.'

    Not so great when someone is shooting at you."


    "'The prospect of wars is great news.'

    Whatever ass clown said this has never been on the two way range before."

    I live in the United States. Santa Barbara, specifically. Nobody is going to be shooting at me. Hahaha. I'll watch WWIII on television and make a mint on Halliburton and Raytheon options.

  142. lalla

    It all depends on how bad of a collapse you think it will be. No one knows. I'm fine with holding CEF. I'm fine with holding stocks of oil companies. But, other well intentioned Turdlings will advise you otherwise.

  143. Congratulations Finnigan,You are now qualifed to be a congressman.

  144. Finnegan...

    "Safe" in SB? Riiight... Because the horde in LA won't head north.

  145. Eric,

    Sounds like you had a lot of fun. When I've got some time, I'll post pictures and detailed explanations about what I know.

    BTW, ghee liquifies in warm weather and solidifies in cold. That's perfectly normal. Doesn't change the taste though and it normally will not go rancid.

    The good thing about a lot of food from third world countries is that it doesn't require refrigeration because they don't have a lot of it back home.

    And they make do without. Fruits will be stored in straw or other natural wrappings and many items are simply sundried. (I don't see that working so well in Wisconsin, maybe freezing instead?) ;)

    Anyway, glad you went. I'm off to catch some zzzzzz.......

  146. Some of you people have no sense of humor.

  147. Turd. Thanks for taking the time this weekend to write this excellent piece. We appreciate it. I am afraid you are right and I feel for the people who have so much faith in our government who are supposed to serve the public. They are the best government can buy. I also feel sorry for the people who live from paycheck to paycheck to be able to afford one silver coin. The puppet masters and their minions, the banksters will win a boatload on the demise of the USD and of the future world currency. They always win. Just look at this...

  148. Hey guys. Love the new coin and pirate theme for the icons. XTY - lookin fine!!

    I was just in LA for the first time two weeks ago. I'm not sure Seattle is far enough north if the SHTF. Disney was nice though... wife bought me a T-shirt that says "Just because I have ears doesn't mean I'm listening". Seems appropriate given the times we live in. Maybe everyone should have one.

  149. none are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free

  150. Hi Guys have any of you used the mylar bags in this vid as I'm thinking of storing my silver in them to stop the tarnishing along with an oxygen absorber. Any info appreciated.

  151. @Bull

    By the way, newbie question: what does POSX abbreviate?
    Thanks everybody for the great blog!

    For a chart, go to DXY - this will be the live US dollar index. I hear people complain about the price of (fill in blank) and my answer is always that it's not about the (fill in blank) - it's about the dollar.


    Yer reading my mind, mi hermano. Hang on and enjoy the ride. Some adrenaline junkies pay lots of good money for this kind of excitement. If we don't get too nervous about the short term, I think that AGQ will reward us - kind of like the way we felt about it going into helicopter Ben's recent dog and pony show. Since my stake in it is only about 3% of my liquid net, I'm just going to keep my perspective and hang.

  152. SUPERB post Turd!! Loving your stuff and visit here first every day now

  153. Turd and Turdites,

    Having bought my physical gold in EUR near the end of 2010, I have not seen much gain.

    It struck me that the EUR/USD rate seems to be shadowing the Gold/USD price (and maintain Gold/EUR in the EUR 1,000 - EUR 1,050 price range) and if this holds I would expect the EUR/USD rate to cross 1.50 and then 1.55 in the next 2/3 weeks.

    Gold broke 1,400 on February 20th and the EUR/USD broke 1.40 on March 7th. (15 day lag)

    Gold broke 1,450 on April 5th and the EUR/USD broke 1,45 on April 12th. (7 day lag)

    Gold broke 1,500 on April 19th and the EUR/USD has yet to break 1.50 in 2011.

    What do people think of this corellation and the reasons for it?

  154. Chinese PMI down, apparently easing inflation concerns

    China's official purchasing-managers' index fell to 52.9 in April from 53.4 in March, likely assuaging concerns somewhat that overheating and inflation pressures will require further tightening measures by Chinese policy makers.

    April's decline in the PMI indicates manufacturing growth slowed after briefly accelerating in March, resuming a trend of three consecutive monthly slowdowns prior to March.

    Meanwhile, the input-prices subindex, an indicator of inflation pressures, declined to 66.2 from 68.3 in March.

  155. Silver tarnishes easily. I hate tarnished silver. Get a frying pan and line the bottom with aluminum foil, lay your silver on the foil. Mix baking soda with water and pour the water in the pan. Make sure your silver is completely underwater. Bring the water to a boil. Viola! Silver is nice and shiny again.

  156. Another great post TF, you're the best.

    Is there some reason you couldn't get a PO box so there would be another way to donate for us people who hate Paypal?

  157. e736

    Seems to me that the Fed's rush to debase the dollar has overwhelmed all the other currency's efforts to do the same. I've believed for months now that we would see some rotation between the dollar, the Euro, the Pound, etc. as to who is crashing the fastest. And thus as to where gold is rising fastest. So far I've been wrong. But it seems to me that worries over the sustainability of the Euro are NOT over, and that those issues will hit the headlines again, sooner or later. Also, I don't subscribe to the idea that they just trot out a little headline just to try to talk up the dollar now and then. I think it's a very real problem.

    As to why this seeming correllation between Euro price and gold price, I'm thinking really something as simple as the power of big round numbers. It's just taking a while to get over the hump of 1000 Euro gold for good. It looks to me like you are just now trying for a breakout. Once you get that 1000 firmly in the rear view mirror you could be off to the races.

  158. lalla,
    A number of investors on this blog have advised getting your hands on the paper shares of stocks you intend to hold to prove your ownership in that company when the SHTF. Don't let the broker hold them for you.

  159. Here's a site I use when I want to look at gold in multiple currencies. Pretty handy sometimes.

  160. Someone is still short an awful lot of gold and silver

  161. I'm not sure, with the advent of the DTCC that paper shares are available in the US any longer.

    Anyone with a work-around for this please post

  162. Folks...
    Lets back up just a bit and ponder the following numbers:
    US Debt including unfunded liabilities is about 100 trillion
    Total Tax revenue is about 2.6 Trillion.

    The Western world is in much the same boat and the game now is how to keep your currency close to the USD so your manufacturers don't get crushed. Countries like Canada and Australia are screwed by the commodity base (it's killing their manufactured exports)

    Irland is beyond broke (people there can go to jail for walking away from their mortage!! and the banks have financed the construction of 300,000 un-needed/unoccupied houses etc etc

    Greece is beyond broke (they are rioting now over being made to work for some the the perks they have assumed to be their right...what will happen when they find out their pensions are Greek Bonds?)

    and so it goes all over the west...

    Anyway...the ONLY way for the US to get out of this box is to pay off these libilities with currency that is worth-less.

    Options are Inflation or Default/issuance of new curency. They have chosen Inflation.

    1-The Fed is a private company and FEW know who truly own it (don't tell me the fed member banks...who owns or controls them?)

    2-I truly believe the goal of the Fed or whoever pulls the strings of the Fed is control of the GLOBAL finanical system and the flow of currency in general. In Monopoly...own all the properties.

    3- raising interest rates crushes the sheeples abiltiy to continue to pay mortgages and further crushes real estate prices. It also creates an environment that is not conducive to creating inflation via dollar devaluation (to futher weaken the dollar but keep people in their homes and business working and folks consuming preserve the status quo). Inflation will eventually kill that too but only when it's too late to change direction and I think we are there now. This is going to end badly for people in general and the elite few are going to try to take over the board.

    Anyway when the dollar is crushed to a point that general loss of confidence is global the solution is either a new currency or massive new support for the "dollar". Some suggest a revaulation of Gold using the US's gold reserves. (If those reserves exist..but that point is mute since there will never be an audit allowed ....just like GLD).

    What we do know is that the banksters want to own the gold and the mines that produce it...this is their true endgame.

    At the end of the day...those truly with the gold will make the rules. Those who have gold in quantity will use it as a basis for trust in whatever currency they decide to back.

    How this shakes out I can't see yet but what is clear is that the USA is NOT paying it's liabilities off with goods of equal value.

    John williams at ShadowStats feels the route is hyperinflation. That is only a change in the SPEED of the process we are now into...not a change in the direction.

    Stack your physical...BTFD with your new equity and protect all that you own.

    Gold will drag silver up in the short term
    Miners will eventually come to party after the hedgie shorts get fried

    Consumers are about to get fried in real inflation terms...starting early fall and inflation will be in full bloom by Xmas time.(100% sure on this ----we buy a wide basket of consumer goods and ALL goods coming from China are up an average of 20%)>>>> FEAR WILL BE RAMPANT. They will panic and charge to precious metals if not riot in capitols around the world...accelerationg the process once again.

    Thanks Turd for all your work and for providing a TRUE discussion board where we can help the collective survive and perhaps even thrive from this pattern.

    Back to my little room now

  163. I was watching rashard mendenhall fumble the ball on the game winning drive and knew my life was over then.

  164. Exergy,
    Nice post! Feel free to come out of your little room anytime and enlighten, confirm, or encourage the rest of us.

  165. Question to the Turd Ilk. I have an opportunity to purchase physical 100ozt silver Engelhard bar 999+ pure. What would you be willing pay? Would it be hard to turn this over to dealer? What would be a top price I should be willing to pay?

  166. Just talked with a buddy of mine who is very high up at one of the up-and-coming independent rating agencies that have been fighting to break the cartel of S&P, et al. He says US gov't debt would already be AA- or worse but the SEC and the Treasury constantly harass the rating agencies into keeping it AAA. Apparently the latest warning from S&P ruffled quite a few feathers. We here on this blog all know that US debt doesn't deserve anything close to AA-, but thought I'd share that tidbit.

    Anyway, this weakness is starting to worry me. I'm sticking with the June and July SIN11 calls I've been sitting on, but seriously: what are the chances we've seen the top here? Someone provide me with some reassurance here!

  167. xfrogman, I'd go to and check out their bid/ask prices. A good price for the bar you're considering would be somewhere in between APMEX's bid and ask.

  168. frogman

    In the days before the national mints got into the act (i.e. Silver Eagles), Engelhard and Johnson Matthey were the top premier names in silver. Always commanded a premium, and still do.

    You'll find Engelhards cheaper than Eagles, but more expensive than other generics.

    Not hard at all to sell an Engelhard. Any coin shop owner worth his salt knows it's still a premier product and that he'll be able to sell it again in a heartbeat.

    At my local shops, if you walk in with silver to sell, they pay top dollar for Eagles, they pay a premium for Engelhard and Johnson Matthey, and everything else, and I mean EVERYTHING else, is "just silver".

    Buy it.

  169. @xfrogman,

    I might pay as much as $1 per oz over spot for that bar, seeing as how my dealer pays -$.10 per oz under spot for them. I personally am not a fan of bars, but to each his/her own.

  170. Mister

    Hey good news! I snagged a Danish 20 Kroner on eBay last night at a really nice price. Those are really nice coins that I'm sure you can appreciate.

  171. Excellent Interview:

  172. ******Please Read**********

    I got Turd's blessing before I posted this.

    I setup a google group for us turdies to discuss on. Now we can have threaded discussions.!forum/tfmetalsreport

    Go sign-up

  173. I had to look that one up, Eric, since I don't own any. At 1/4 ounce+, it will definitely feel hefty in your hand. Cool coin!

    You have me itching to browse eBay now. I really shouldn't, at least until I've lightened up on silver. Then again, it doesn't hurt to look, does it? LOL.

  174. Mister
    You are exactly right. Those Kroners feel obviously more hefty in the hand than a Sovereign. And I LOVE Sovereigns.

    eBay is like crack. But in a good way. Aarrrr!!

  175. metals going to freefall this week, trust me :D:D

  176. wide awake news - special guest michael ruppert (of the documetary 'collapse') hosted by charlie mcgrath & warren pollock - important discussion on overall economic outlook, peak oil

  177. Found this over at Max Keiser's. Just some average Joe, made a video, talking about some of the things that concern us all.

  178. Is David Morgan a shill for the EE?

    His latest report is saying to sell and get ready for a pullback. He's saying he's sold 25% of his silver stake.

    Two things about this:
    1) He has been consistently wrong about price action since August 2010. Very consistently, in my mind.
    2) OK. There could be a pull back and consolidation. Who can know for sure?

    But then he sends out an emergency e-mail saying that the Comex margin is being raised from $14,513 to $25,397. THIS IS FALSE. This is just MF Global, not the CME.
    Two things about this:
    1) This is VERY alarmist. It alarmed me for a moment.
    2) Shouldn't a professional avoid silly mistakes like this?

    David Morgan seems to be a shill for the EE, either intentionally or not. I really don't trust the guy at all now.

  179. Friends:
    Suggest you read Krasting's piece over at ZH (and the comments, too).
    There is never just one-way action; it is at least two-way, and with swaps can be multiples and leveraged.
    TF susses out most of the over-horizon events, but I'm reading a lot of satisfaction and assurance on this blog which might lead to over-commitment of your precious investment capital.
    Stay cautious. Physical purchases with cash offer the most resilience.

  180. ... this link says that SLV will sell 50 million more shares of SLV to meet the rising demand. 50 million shares of SLV means 2.2 billion USD worth of silver that they will have to buy as per their prospectus. Now when 500 million worth of silver can cause so much problem on physical side ... just imagine if this comes along what will happen to silver price.

  181. most silver bugs are insane I would say.

  182. Liking my gold and oil holdings I picked up. Only I picked up alot of silver along the ride too. Thinking of lighting up the load of silver and adding to oil.

    I heard some good advice out here yesterday and would like to repeat it. "Don't look back at trades, learn from them but don't get stuck on what could of been."

    I do my best to apply past mistakes lessons into future trade gains. Learning as I go. I have learned alot from these boards and miss alot of posters that seem to have disappeared. Hope to see them at the new site.

  183. Ken

    link please? I'm not seeing it.

  184. IPad problem of doing links...


  185. I don't think I need another place for discussion of the topics we cover here. Hard enough to keep up with the volume on this board, much less another one. Thanks for your efforts though!

  186. Ken

    Oh, yes, saw that one. I misinterpreted your post and thought you were talking about something specific to the PM markets. My fault. Thanks for the comeback though.

  187. @stevy

    Thank you for the compliment.

    I do not consider myself a giant although I have made giant mistakes in my trading career.

    I am more a Market Foot solider striving for "Barbarian Excellence" in the markets. This is a very important point of One Good Trade for every trade.

    It is a war where the best and brightest with deep pockets and inside information are pitted against little me. Somewhat like an George Washington American patriot revolutionary in days of old against a well fitted royal army.

    Last week thank God I was a victor booking over 67% gain in my account. Again I use 50:1 leverage and am agile and focused. I seem to trade all the time and get "combat" sleep when I can. As long as the market trades there is an opportunity to profit. I trade to live and live to trade. There is nothing else I would rather do.


    As a part of risk management ALWAYS CONSIDER the TIME EXPOSURE of your position. Every trade must be viewed as a hand grenade that can blow up in your face before you can defuse it for a profit.

    Greed = BAD. Take the money and run. The market will always give you an opportunity to buy again. DO NOT USE A PRICE PLOP. That is where a bunch of ounces are purchased at a price point. I trade in a pyramid with my positions. This way I can endure a steep sell off and be able to BTFD with more margin.

    NEVER FORGET. The market is designed to screw you first and reward you maybe.

    To quote a commentator I read there is no time line to victory. It is more important to have endurance. This will lead to victory. Cutting and running leads to defeat.

    Through determination these have lead to the lessons learned above.

    Cant wait for the FOREX to open @6 PM. I do not predict price but instead react to it.

    Again I am privileged to be considered a Turdite.

    Thank you and THANK YOU TURD my greatest leverage.

  188. Eric#1
    That video is a little scary

  189. @ Gramps
    @ bro D
    @ colin etc.

    I just don't want to see this blog turn into yahoo message boards. But hey whatever floats your boat. I don't have to read it. If you are going to copy and paste entire articles from other blogs to this blog, then I think you are a narcissistic imbecile. Reference the blog (link) and suggest people read it themselves. Let that blog owner get the hits to his page. That is part of how they get paid. GET IT? Page views. Understand? Your browsing prowess is BS.

    I think there is a 75% chance silver opens down Monday. I look to add more in the gap area between 46.30 to 47.20 ish. There is a slim possiblity we see 45 briefly to soil the pants of all the newbies at 48 1/2 and above. If it opens up, I do not add until we break out of the box we are currently in. I might even flattend out above 49. Take it minute by minute.
    All subject to change based on what the mkt dictates to me.GLTA

  190. But how will we piss of atlee if we go? I think it is really important that we don't only focus on investing - that has always been a means to an end for Turd, as his postings frequently demonstrate. Like the Kipling poem.

    Swampfox - thanks matey - I do have the long blond hair. but am a bit more weathered than my avatar wench.

  191. trollercoaster,
    I suggest you invest the 35.00 a month to Ted Butlers reports. You have no clue of what you speak.

  192. XTY
    Don't worry about pissing me off. You can talk about gummy bears if you like. I don't care. Really. I don't have to read it. I have no patience for the those who think they are adding something of value by parroting entire articles vebatim.

  193. allee - i was mostlly poking you because I wanted to know what was bugging you. I have never been on a Yahoo message board - and I keep to the topic or say nothing when the market is moving - but coins and food prep are part of the game and very interesting to many, and weekends are different.

    But people - plagiarism is very bad - and please do provide links - essential for the web to work, and to back up what you say.