Monday, May 2, 2011

An Historic Sunday Evening

First of all and most importantly, as an American citizen, I am pleased that Osama bin Laden is dead. I am extraordinarily proud of the special forces and intelligence teams that carried out the mission that led to his demise. I am hopeful that this will bring some measure of closure for the families which lost loved ones nearly 10 years ago. Lastly, I beg you, please do not take this as an opportunity to pollute this blog with comments regarding 9/11 conspiracies and assorted CIA plots. If you strongly believe in that stuff, please vent somewhere else. As usual, lets try to keep this blog focused on PMs.

And there certainly is a lot to focus on this evening. Whether leaked news of bin Laden's death spooked some longs who feared a massive dollar spike, we'll never know. Whether the latest firm-specific margin hike freaked out some longs, it's hard to say. Whether The Cartel simply decided to massively raid the Globex because of the extremely thin volume associated with London being closed tomorrow, it's impossible to tell. We can only speculate. What we do know is that Globex silver sold off over $6.50, or about 15%, in 10 minutes tonight.

A move of that size can indicate a number of things and we'll certainly speculate on all of it tomorrow. For now, we need to immediately look for support levels so that we can decide where and when we might want to buy the dip. Also, there are levels above which we can begin to hope that the storm has passed.

First, look at this 3-hour silver. I thought that the coming, mid-May correction could take us back toward 45. As a worst case, I was thinking 43. I even drew those lines on the silver chart I posted yesterday. After tonight, the chart needs a closer inspection. Here's what I've found:
The area around 42 should be very stout support and, not coincidentally, 42.20 was where things stopped earlier after the massive drop. IF things continue to accelerate downward, I'd expect even stronger support to develop in the area around $40. On the flip side, silver will now need to get back above 46.25 before we can begin to feel that the storm has passed, at least for now. Tonight's action has done some significant technical damage and only serves to increase the likelihood of the mid-May "correction" we've been expecting. The good news is: In the correction, silver may never trade lower than it did this evening. Also, the panic bottom of 42.20 gives us a very clear line to watch in the next few days and weeks. A break of that level will give us clear warning that a drop toward $40 is coming. A re-test and subsequent move higher would give us a classic double-bottom that we could buy with a high level of confidence.

Onto gold, which had traded as high as 1577 before all the fireworks. The selloff stopped right at clear support near 1540. I'd expect a rebound now back UP toward 1560-65. From there, probably downward consolidation. Though the gold chart doesn't look as lousy as the silver chart, I'd have to think now that a re-test of tonight's lows, and even the lows of last week near 1525, is likely before a test and breakout above tonight's highs.

Well, that's it. What a crazy night. I must admit that, when we got back from dinner and I saw that the president was getting ready to "address the nation" at 10:30 on a Sunday night, I got a little nervous. I felt like I was watching an old episode of "24". I'm glad that those nerve-wracking 90 minutes are over and I can head off to bed. Tomorrow promises to be very interesting. Talk to you in the a.m. TF

204 comments:

  1. Thank you as always Turd! The desparation of the cartel is so obvious. BTFD

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  2. Thanks Turd I needed your confidence boost.

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  3. Turd, thank you for having the best blog out there

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  4. The EE creates opportunities that must be taken advantage of. Tonight is one of the best. By tonight, buy tomorrow morning.

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  5. thanks Turd. I needed some sleeping pills tonight....

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  6. Thanks Turd,

    I know it must be tough to have to do this update on your special night.

    Trader Dan also has $42 as support. He calls it very strong support.

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  7. I think they try a shakeout for sure tomorrow.
    Thats the que to BTFD ! China/London closed until tomorrow night, light volume and not everyone paying attention.

    They will ramp the Dow on the worthless Osama news and try and hit PM's oh ! I almost forgot and pump the Dollar.

    Perfect !

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  8. I trust Turd, but I won't be surprised if we wake up tomorrow to numbers close to Friday's close. Gold barely moved percentage-wise.

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  9. Hey, could a few of you please go back and take the previous thread to 1000? That would be quite a milestone ;)

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  10. I watched the globex open at 6pm. It was actually up about .25 the first 5 minutes or so. I went to turn the screen off and suddenly it was down over $2. If that doesn't smell like planned manipulation I don't know what does. That is all this is. Make it work for you.

    Do you think all thise kids in Lafayette Square across the street from the White House are confused? Maybe they misunderstood Osama for Obama?

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  11. Dammit, I was trying to contribute to the 1K milestone, when the new thread went up... Here's a repost. I will now go back and drop a few 'I'm 999th' posts on the previous thread...

    I still think this was, if anything, a retaliatory/pre-emptive strike to try to keep a lid on PM markets and a degree of control in EE's hands -- combined with the double punch of CME and Globex margin increases. Remember what happened a week ago Sunday night on the access markets? Couldn't have that again, could we -- and we were much closer to $50 in silver than the prior week. If some concentrated buying had pierced far enough over the topside resistance, would they have been able to contain it when the broader markets opened?

    I'm with StrongSideJedi and Turd -- in the meantime look at last week's chart, and ask yourself whether any patterns in silver's movements have repeated in the last 6 months or so.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-29/gold-buying-central-banks-may-signal-bullion-extending-record-price-rally.html

    "Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker ended gold’s rally to a then-record $873 by raising borrowing costs to 20 percent in March 1980." Do you think a repeat of THIS performance is likely anytime soon?

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  12. I had this image (hard to shake now) of the President coming forward toward the dark podium, walking in his distinguished manner past the many doors in the hallway, treading confidently over the carpet and preparing to address the American public . . . . .

    . . . . wearing a big floppy yellow foam hat.

    Ol' Michael

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  13. Thanks Turd - and happy birthday Mrs F.

    BTW: I noticed another "H" pop up in some earlier comments... Do I get to follow Eric and go by H#1 :o)

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  14. Turdle nailed it. 1000! At least there was a new high somewhere.

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  15. OBL is gone and what a media fest it is. Yahoo! like the Dukes of Hazard going over the financial cliff... Our fundamentals have not changed.

    On saturday on local coin dealer had silver eagles for $55. probably not so much now... time to shake a few more loose, lol!

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  16. Turds the word! t-t-t-tur tur tur, turd is the word...

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  17. H #1 - it didn't sound like you - glad for the clarification.

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  18. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  19. Hey, could a few of you please go back and take the previous thread to 1000? That would be quite a milestone ;)

    Yes, Sir.

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  20. Think or Swim Ameritrade update on Sunday night: /SI margin requirements changed to 30,037.50 and /YI margin requirements changed to 6,007.50

    For some it is going to be a Margin Call Monday. This should help explain some of the sell-off. Sucks for limiting my buying potential tonight...

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  21. As said above, fundos not changed. Hang in there. Capitalize where you can - you know THEY are.

    Zerohedge threads are a complete and utter disaster - glad I don't see the same here.

    USA! USA!

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  22. I logged in at #1010 on the last thread.
    Good night, all.

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  23. Somebody just BTFD again @ $43.60 at 20:30 EST at twice the volume of the previous $43.65 BTFD purchase at 20:00 EST.

    Looks to me like $43.60 has pretty good support for this trading session.

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  24. The OBL story is questionable at best. I assume the guy has been dead for years. Nice cover to smash silver though. The desperate moves being made now are clear enough evidence that that the COMEX is totally screwed.

    BTFD. I imagine silver supplies will disappear quickly at these levels.

    Bay of Pigs

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  25. Off to bed... Early morning field trip planned to the coin shop.

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  26. Feeling sick tonight...

    Yeah, I get it about the dollar crashing and needing a safe haven in PMs and all, but my needs at the moment are to build a stash as quickly as possible and then buy the things I'll need for the coming meltdown. Last Fall, PMs and the miners did great, and I'm happy with the general results of metal so far this year (although the miners have sucked).

    But I can't say I have "faith" in the PMs... if they are making money for me, great, if not, I'll go buy Apple stock and make money that way.

    If the EE keeps playing whack-a-mole with the prices at any opportunity, that means there is really no rational way to trade the PMs. I'll buy and stay long in PMs, but speculate with something that the EE is actually trying to boost.

    Just tired and disgusted, love the blog, hate that trading the metals is starting to make me nuts.

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  27. Thanks SilverSurfer, again.

    What service do you use to track the volume?

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  28. Thanks for the late update Turd. Congrats on the new comment milestone as well!

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  29. forgot to mention:

    A Gentleman would say Buy The Freaking Dip (BTFD) and his lovely wife would say Forget You Blythe Masters (FUBM)!!!

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  30. If you look at the long(er) term trendline set up during the first ~3 months of silver's rise after 8/24/2010, silver dropped below it after the high of 1/3/11. Through the dip, Turd's bottom, the recovery and subsequent rise it remained below that trendline -- only to break through the line on 4/15 or so. This 'correction' merely returns us to the trendline - and incidentally to the silver price 10 days ago, on 4/20. The trendline on my chart goes through 50 at about 6/24.

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  31. Turdle GG: You can view the silver real live charts on NetDania. After you click on THIS LINK, you will see the default EURUSD chart so:
    1. Click the gray pin icon to Detach the chart
    2. Go to Instruments Menu and Select "Silver, spot"
    3. Click the #1 button (1 minute chart)
    4. Click the button on the top with the green and red verticle lines (that's the volume)

    Cheers :)

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  32. For those who want the cosmic view:
    This week's free weekly market outlook:

    From Ray Merriman:

    Short-Term Geocosmics

    On Saturday, April 30, Mars will form a conjunction with Jupiter in late Aries, and Venus will end its translation of the wide T-square of Saturn, Uranus, and Pluto (with Pluto at the midpoint of the Saturn-Uranus opposition). The last part of this translation of Venus is its opposition to Saturn (April 30). In a study once conducted on the Japanese Nikkei Index (by yours truly), hard aspects from transiting Venus to Mars, Saturn, or especially Uranus were found to have a very strong (i.e. 80% or more) correlation to major or greater cycles within 4 trading days. If it is to be valid this time, it would be from a crest.

    The transit of Mars through the final degrees of Aries is also important. It joins Jupiter in 22-27 degrees of Aries this week, which is a critical sector of the New York Stock Exchange chart (founded May 17, 1792). Jupiter will remain there through May 25. This has been observed (by none other than me) to have high correlation to reversals in the U.S. stock market. And it should not go unnoticed that there is a new moon in Taurus, the sign of money and net worth, on May 3. Rising equity prices often form at least a temporary top within a day or two of new moons.

    We also note that heliocentric Mercury exits Sagittarius on the new moon of May 3. As expected, precious metals, crude oil, and currencies (against the Dollar) were very strong for the first few days of this ingress (it entered Sagittarius on April 22-23). Gold made a new all-time high, Silver came close to breaking above its all-time high of 5000 (it reached 4982 on Monday, April 25, our three-star critical reversal date), and Crude Oil soared to its highest level since its all-time high days of May 2008. As mentioned, the Swiss Franc made a new all-time high last week too, and the Euro currency rallied towards the dreaded 1.5000 level to the Dollar. It’s all related to heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius’ explosiveness, and the Jupiter-Uranus transit in Aries. That’s a lot of fire power fueling this bullet train of assets. But helio Mercury in Sagittarius ends this week, just as Jupiter and Mars start entering that zodiac sector when the top to those assets is due to culminate. In other words, we are nearing the end of the line. It would be wise to prepare to switch to another line before all the oxen get on board and tip the balance of this train.

    http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/mma-commens-for-the-week-begining-may-2,-2011/

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  33. SilverSurfer,
    thanks. That works well.

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  34. I don't know about the rest of you but I love these serious beat downs, it just means they are gonna get double dirty lickins when THE TIME comes. And that TIME is coming! Remember 5-20% moves will be the norm, this is AG, traders beware this is not for the faint of heart. We are now in the world of BIG boys and girls which I am NOT one! Know your place or get placed, in other words git in where you fit in.If your looking for fairness play sports they got refs....this is war get some.
    A hui hou malama pono kakau.

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  35. Just a blip for strong hands holding physical silver.

    1. Gold barely moved, currently down 1%, clearly a silver specific manipulation. So someone shorted a bunch of paper silver, big deal. Does anyone here really believe that someone actually dumped a huge quantity of physical silver on the market? Who would be that stupid in the middle of a multi year secular bull about to go parabolic?
    2. We are just starting another delivery month for silver on the Comex and even with a smaller number of contracts standing, they will have difficulty rounding up 10 million ounces of Ag in May.
    3. Unless you really need to sell this week, it won't affect you
    4. Chinese and Indian buyers of size will put a floor under the price as the trading week progresses.
    5. The two main drivers of the silver price are still intact, the weak dollar and the shortage of physical

    Even if you are playing the paper game, you will barely be affected if you were wise enough to keep 90% of your capital in physical metal.

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  36. New follower hence the newbie question: What is "EE"?

    BTW, Turd, please continue to post your trade suggestions as they help complete the story you tell. We the responsible will follow, or not.

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  37. EE = evil empire (i.e. JPM, etc)

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  38. intuitiveanalyst:

    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/turds-glossary.html

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  39. TF - Checking your chart, I think you actually meant it dropped $5.50 in 12 minutes, but it's still a massive plummet.

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  40. Turd, you can destroy the Emperor. He has foreseen this. It is your destiny! Search your feelings, you know it is true.

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  41. kumunari,
    I for one do not like a serious beatdown!

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  42. From last thread:

    Hey Ginger!

    Thanks for posting the link.. I'll try to learn ASAP, time is money (and I need that 1k Brick soon :) )

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  43. I think this sell off stinks. It is a blantant manipulation. Yes a sell off might have been coming, but this stinks like rats.
    You want to hit them where it hurts here...buy physical. I'm calling in an order tomorrow morning.
    TURD - How about a yellow hat for Fridays closing price for silver!

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  44. Anyone else see the horizontal wedge forming here? We'll see how it breaks in the next hour or two.

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  45. kumanari:
    If your looking for fairness play sports they got refs....this is war get some.
    After reading most of the posts of the day this is the most accurate.Thanks

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  46. Looking forward to watching CNN tomorrow...

    Donald Trump will surely be on *DEMANDING* Obama to show Osama Bin Laden's death certificate! LOL!!!!!

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  47. "Lastly, I beg you, please do not take this as an opportunity to pollute this blog with comments regarding 9/11 conspiracies and assorted CIA plots."

    I beg you to take your own advice.

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  48. Not a conspiracy, not kookie, the Bin Ladins were business partners with the Bushes. Osama was in fact, not theory,, not conspiracy, but documented fact a CIA asset. The Al CIAda, was created and funded by the U.S. These are just a few of the facts that you must research for yourselves and draw your own conclusions. I do not take such things lightly without a multitude of cross checked independent sources to confirm. But the most important asset in evaluating a controversial piece of controversy is your ability to reason from the facts with precise logic.

    I have spent the better part of the last 20 years researching the EE. This total lie about Osama Bin Ladin is an integral part of their overall agenda. YOU CAN BELIEVE NOTHING THAT THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA AND THIS CORPORATE FASCIST NON GOVERNMENT TELLS YOU. NOTHING !!!

    YOU MUST QUESTIONS EVERYTHING,, AND I MEAN EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVER BEEN TAUGHT !!!!

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  49. deficit still increasing? check
    still printing money? check
    real growth still constrained by net energy? check
    no public will for austerity? check
    black swans circling? check
    continue buying pm? check

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  50. I'm Loving It!

    What I want to buy is on sale.

    We all know silver is worth more than $50 so you should be happy you can buy it for less.

    Hell, I wish it would drop to single digits. MSM would be all bubble bubble bubble toil and trouble and I would be like Eddie Murphy after the OJ news came out.

    Thank you sir, may I have another?

    Word Verification relyzes as in I relyzes this is all BS and we will be heading north again before I have bought my fill.

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  51. Doesn't anybody remember the mid-August 2008 London beatdown from $14 to $12 (also about 15%) that happened in like one minute? That felt MUCH worse than this - because it happened AFTER a 35% drop instead of after a 200% pop!

    We could easily drop to $38 or even $32, which would suck for my options, and (temporarily) suck for my miners - but I'm still mostly in physical and no fundamentals have changed.

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  52. Turd, agreed in not dealing in conspiracy theories, only deal in facts. Starting with this fact: the Pentagon hasn't wanted Osama Bin Laden since a month after 9/11 - yes, all charges in connection with 9/11 were dropped against Osama. So by all means rejoice in Osama's death for whatever personal reasons you have against the man, but please get your facts straight and don't make mention of 911 in the next sentence.

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  53. Calum is 100% right .. google TIM OSMAN ... anyone wielding propaganda anywhere is worthy of being advised ... that said, you dont think on MAY DAY, the illumined ones symbolic playground, had no coincidence with silver's dive and the OBL false flag? (not to mention all the videos were admitted fakes)

    c'mon, you need to be wiser than all that.

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  54. Back to the PMs. Gold is clearly helping silver here. Closing in on 1,560. Silver has not been able to push through $45 convincingly on the rebound. Making another run at $45 now.

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  55. I can't believe I took an early night and missed the dip at midnight GMT.

    Now how do I configure those live chart klaxons to wake me up without alarming the neighbours.

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  56. Everything coming out of the mainstream media and the government propaganda machines are controlled by the massive global central banking and international energy empires. I have spent years peeling away the layers of the onion, going far down into the rabbit hole, exploring the massively complex maze of mind control. You are not free until you know the truth. You cannot know the truth until you question absolutely everything you have been told from birth. Yes, I know this is a very daunting task. I have spent a lifetime doing it. It has been the most rewarding effort I ever undertook. I would not trade what I have learned for anything, not even a mountain of silver. Making the truth, and your knowing it, the number one reason for your existence is the most important thing you will ever do. Nothing is worth more in this life.

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  57. @Harry: I confirm the horizontal wedge. Was difficult to see at first on the longer time frame but yes its forming on the M15 chart.

    There is a possible upward retracement to mid 47s on the cards.

    I also wanted to say that I noticed the exchanges going on at the past thread. I do not think it's healthy for posters to hurl insults and innuendos on each other. Every view has its place and serves as a crutch for someone whether bullish, bearish or neutral.

    We should be more tolerant of each other and not jump in and dismiss with malice. Your words can cause hurt. Watch your tongue and speech carefully. Hiding behind the computer to post vitriol does not excuse you because your hands are already soiled though you miss your target.

    Let's aim towards a more encouraging and inclusive community. Only then can we say that we have matured as investors and as people.

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  58. Turd, if you were to use a little white-out (or orange, in my case): http://imgur.com/wuWDd.jpg

    If you look at this way, we're just continuing a healthy correction off of $50, which itself was reached at the end of an unsustainable parabola. We're now regaining strength and building momentum for The Big One - the next run to $50, which we will cut through like a hot knife through butter, and then the great beyond!

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  59. JoeKa,

    Very nice words and how very true. You should consider the job of moderator on Turds new site.

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  60. LOL @ all the silver bugs here buying when it was 'cheap' at $47 and above.

    And yes i fully expect to get flamed for this, but remember, the only thing that matters is price. And the price action currently is NOT on the side of the silver bulls.

    Last little addendum: $35 px target on AG by RBCCM for Q3; GS has it even lower. Just a little to think about.

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  61. @ben: Thank you. But I do not seek 'titles'.

    If by encouraging one another we can bring comfort to those lurkers or posters who got wiped out of leveraged accounts today we would have done a far greater deed than postulating price targets and support levels.

    A kind word brings healing and comfort to the bones and lifts spirits.

    To those traders reading - if you got wiped out today or are in massive loss position, remember you are not alone. Stay strong and try to be positive.

    I know it will be tough. Words are always easier to speak. But we must consciously confess that which we know to be true so that we don't go into a downward spiral.

    Your friend,
    Joe

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  62. LOL Harry!! Love your chart!!! :)

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  63. This just about sums it all up http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=f7d_1268174232

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  64. The almighty Turd said, and it was written:

    Dec, 2010:On to the PMs. Everything, and I mean everything, looks great for the PMs as we head into this week. From the charts to the fundos to the chatter, it appears to be "all systems go" for liftoff. Therefore, you should be nervous. It is in times like these when the EE often counter attacks. Just look back four weeks ago for your latest example. The Fed announced QE2 on 11/3 and, by 11/9, the dollar was diving and the PMs were soaring with no conceivable end in sight. Well, we all remember what happened next. Out of the blue, we get margin requirement increases and a sharp correction in price. Silver shed $4.30 in a week and gold lost $95! None of the fundos changed, however, and we've since recovered. If you don't think that the EE has more tricks up their collective sleeves, you're living in FantasyLand. They may hit us again this week or they may not but hit us again they most certainly will. Be cautious and you'll make a lot of money in this market. Get greedy and you'll be wiped out faster than the free booze at the company Christmas party.

    Praise The Turd.

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  65. Head,

    I am a silver bug. For me, what matters is the stack. Price in dollars is an illusion. The dollar price action has and will always be on the side of we silver bulls. Your understanding of the fundamentals is what leads you astray and to make your premise flawed comments. As long as they print on a global basis, the price of PM's in dollars, or any other fiat fraud pricing mechanism, will go up.

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  66. doc,
    thanks. you've made my day :)

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  67. correction..

    your NOT understanding the fundamentals leads you astray

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  68. Haha thanks JoeKa! I hope his Turdness likes it, too. And great video doc, we all needed that one, as well.

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  69. Harry, next TF needs a day off with the Mrs., you can be the chart guy! Funny stuff.

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  70. Turdle GG Yes it brings it all into focus.

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  71. Even with this Sunday raid silver price barely touched 20DMA, folks. I bet those Asian folks @LME are hating it for not being able to BTFD as the market shuts down on holiday.

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  72. I would really be worried, not really, if this were on non-holiday. Remember part of the EE's goal is to keep the price of PM's low so the
    Chinese can buy at a price low enough to keep them from selling all of their dollar reserves too quickly. Anytime they wanted they could bring down the entire dollar based global fiat system. Maybe this is a gift to them on this communist holiday.

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  73. A little insight I decided to write about the whole Osama thing...

    http://thehardrightedge.com/osama/

    Just my thoughts...
    Will be an interesting day tomorrow, or I mean in 6.5hours. Time for another sleep-deprived day tomorrow, yikes!

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  74. A very obvious raid. It will be an interesting week. Everytime there is a raid like this the anti-PM shills come out of the woodwork... I pay that no mind and continue to BTFD whenever possible.

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  75. Great thoughts Scott,

    I read your article with great interest. You show incredible intelligence and empathy for a guy your age, not to mention perception. Thanks for that great article and reminder of some of the facts we too soon forget. Keep up the precocious work. You are amazing !

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  76. JoEKa:

    Kind words that made me feel better for one. Not wiped out but certainly feeling it right now. My account was up 110% in the last month so taking me halfway back there to bring my leverage under control is annoying but not going to end my trading.

    Just hope silver hasn't topped - which would be just my dumb luck.

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  77. The CME Group Inc. (CME.O) said on Thrusday it would raise maintenance margins for COMEX Silver futures by 13.2 percent to $ 10,750 per contract from $9500 effective Friday 29th April.

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  78. Any ideas of what to expect on NY open? Have the stops from the pit triggered already, or will there be another drop?

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  79. Media reports that the body of Osama has already been buried on the ocean - "in respect of muslim tradition".

    If that is really true (that they have got rid of the body within hours) it seems obviously that whoever was killed was not Osama. Why on earth would you throw the body in the water if not only to make sure that there is no chance to finally proof that is has NOT been Osama.

    This smells as fishy as the water the corpse would plunged into.

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  80. @Inca: stay strong buddy. And stay vigilant.
    We are all riding this period out together.

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  81. "Winning" sure feels more painful than I thought it would... I'm one of the crazy people who bought more in back on Friday thinking that there's no way the discrepancy between silver and gold could last.

    Ah well, I'll pull another 'wait till you're green' again, even if it takes a month like last December. After that, I think I'm with kiwi and go look somewhere else to make money trading. Playing the investment martyr and interpreting my red numbers as a winning move just isn't my forte.

    I'll still be long once I'm in the green again, but probably with less money, and no more of that speculative short-term nonsense. Other commodities have, perhaps not outperformed silver, but they at least have shown a much more consistent gain in an orderly manner without all this bullshit interference.


    Word verification: "buyini", as in, buy in? Yes, I know! And I will, damnit. Just need to get my bank in order. Bloody thing times out whenever I try to make a wire transfer.

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  82. @JoeKa
    Good morning (in USA) buddy.
    Glad I went to bed right before the whole 10:30 w/President started. Just lucky in timing :), because I needed the sleep. Would have stayed up all night "watching". The big question in my mind as I nodded remains..what happens at 9:30 am when NYSE opens? All those leveraged positions on both sides of the game...do they buy, hold, or sell? Do they have a choice (if they are underwater)? Waterfalls up or down as either shorts cover or longs get out of dodge?

    Guess we'll see...

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  83. I feel the same, I made profits on gold, but large losses on the silver trade. I am out for the moment. Perhaps look for other ways to regain my losses. Hard to tell to what level the next raid is going to take silver down.

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  84. well back above 4500. if ag can push towards 4600 before US opening who knows what could happen.

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  85. Hi Pailin, how are you today?

    Yes its all on the fence. I'll be taking some interim profits to see the response on NY open. Can't take any chances with leveraged positions in this hugely volatile market.

    I'm thinking there might be another retest of the earlier 44s but this could be due to weakness in WTI crude.

    Again I reckon that will not last the entire trading day. So re-buy ins at that point will benefit from the rally again, just like what is happening in Asia. Freakish things happen during low liquidity, so the markets rewarded us with the complete opposite of the Good Friday weekend spike.

    It's been a crazy day. Stay safe my friend.

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  86. WTF?

    "A U.S. official said he was buried at sea at 2 a.m., Washington D.C. time,
    in accordance with Islamic practice. "

    http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/osama-bin-laden-killed-navy-seals-firefight/story?id=13505792

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  87. @Catseyenu
    I'm with you..WTF?

    This is getting to be more and more like a bad Lifetime movie or something. You know the ones where the body is cremated before anybody can run tests. Whether you're in metals or not, can anybody truly believe this is all "a-ok, 100% legit, no worries"?

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  88. what? thats not islamic practice. i wouldnt be surprised to hear tomorrow that it wasnt really osama

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  89. "A U.S. official said he was buried at sea at 2 a.m., Washington D.C. time,
    in accordance with Islamic practice."

    They threw his corpse into the sea to prevent it becoming a shrine. I have a suspicion the militant aspects of the islamic fundamentalist community will see this as an act of desecration.

    If so, the US has done the political equivalent of sticking its honey-covered private parts into a bee-hive while beating it repeatedly with a big stick.

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  90. Islamic burial practice entails being buried in the ground in a sideways posture facing Mecca.

    If I got that correct...

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  91. I don't buy the story at all. It stinks of propaganda. It's so transparently 1984-esque, and of course the death of Ben Laden like Ben Laden himself has little if anything to do with those domestic terror attacks ten years ago.

    Of course if we're sticking to facts, not conspiracy, then we should note Ben Laden was never found guilty and in reality there has been absolutely no "justice" for the victims of those attacks. Just questions left unanswered, and people stigmatized for wanting to know.

    It's all about controlling people's thought processes and paradigms. I'm surprised being aware of the manipulation of the economy and precious metals wouldn't also lead one down the path of questioning the reasoning behind false flag attacks, which occur frequently throughout history and across societies. Unless one fears taking such a stance would subject oneself to physical harm, intimidation or retaliation.

    Either way, the truth is out there. You just have to open your eyes and your mind to begin to see it.

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  92. Buried at sea at 2 am? LOL OMG, what a perfectly ridiculous ending to a perfectly ridiculous story.

    Id like to know who the genius was that decided to dump the body before it was ever confirmed to be Osama.

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  93. "If the EE keeps playing whack-a-mole with the prices at any opportunity, that means there is really no rational way to trade the PMs."

    Exactly. This time I escaped pretty much unharmed, but it could have been worse.. my broker didn't let me close out my FX positions at some point.. major fuckup, I mean, how can you escape when shit hits the fan? Luckily I was diversified and so I was at least able to trade my CFDs.. it still cost me, because I was not able to close out as fast as I wanted.. wanted to close some of my positions around 45, then when I got the chance to do so we were at 43...

    You can't even daytrade the stuff and get out when you need to, because sometimes your broker won't let you.

    It's a casino, and I accept that, maybe I'll win, maybe I'll lose.. I wouldn't do all of this anyway if I didn't have a good physical position as the ultimate backup.. loaded up on a few miners just now too.

    Diversify - they'll try to take as many of your possessions as they can, but they can't fuck it up all at once.

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  94. If Silver rebounds BEFORE NY opens, you'll know for sure it *was* manipulation. No 'stop loss' or similar BS [ on the other hand - it's their unique chance to keep it low, then add more shorts and finally, before Asia opens Tuesday - start covering ]

    It's because they don't know whether there can be huge hedge fund or billionaire order(s) when exchange opens. If that's the case (remember what happened when S&P downgraded US debt?), they could be screwed.

    This is as well Turd's observation: they never attack at round hours (8:00 or 9:00). Most probably then scan the whole market depth, run some simulations/smart algos - or just wait for the biggest orders to be fired first. Then - as we all know - 'attack' begins.

    I'm sick of waiting for an 'attack' and seeing when to reenter. If the fundamentals have not changed (and they haven't), it's not worth it since half-life of such event is getting shorter and shorter. Next to it - if the only time they're so brave is in time of thin volume it shows you exactly how confident they feel about their actions.

    It's just a noise. F E D hacks - one vertical line, then next day PM rebound; unemployment figures/NFP and similar BS - vertical line, next day or two PM rebound. So last night we had Obama hack. Yeah sure USD IDX will sky rocket after this and it will reverse huge money printing that's been done, it will cure economy and suddenly F E D drones start to be more productive than destructive...

    BTFD before it goes to triple digit number and becomes rare earth (no kidding) mineral .

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  95. @Markus what about GSOs? I think you pay a premium but the broker can't screw you so easily in case of such market gap event.

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  96. It proves one thing, they understand the attacks cannot be successful during normal trading hours, which to me,means they have been hurt.or lost confidence in their ability to influence the market .

    Lesson learned: never be vulnerable during forgien holidays again . forgien holidays have to be considered as a prime time for a market drop in the future.

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  97. I don't trust what the next day or two NYSE will do in paper markets. Carefully moved out of 90% of my XAG paper, one small ticket at a time over the last 10 mins. I'm not done, may go flat or may BTFD if it materializes again down at 42 or 40. Otherwise I'll wait for things to settle a bit. Right now I look at 45.xx as a gift considering what happened last night.

    Can anybody really predict how AGQ, ZSL and SLV will react at market open and throughout Monday? I can't, and that volume is way too much for me to be whipped around inside. No thanks!

    I took a hit and eff it, more phys on it's way, good enough for me. I wish all of you traders the best and those with physical don't need my wishes, you're already solid :)

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  98. I think alot of people took a hit. including me, stop loss went off at 45. it is quite frustrating but I am trying not to dwell on it.

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  99. "ben.roberts13 said...
    Everything coming out of the mainstream media and the government propaganda machines are controlled by the massive global central banking and international energy empires. I have spent years peeling away the layers of the onion, going far down into the rabbit hole, exploring the massively complex maze of mind control. You are not free until you know the truth. You cannot know the truth until you question absolutely everything you have been told from birth. Yes, I know this is a very daunting task. I have spent a lifetime doing it. It has been the most rewarding effort I ever undertook. I would not trade what I have learned for anything, not even a mountain of silver. Making the truth, and your knowing it, the number one reason for your existence is the most important thing you will ever do. Nothing is worth more in this life."

    Exactly my story. My youth has been pretty much f***ed, I always wanted to be a good guy and soon I realized everything in this world was decided by lies and asskissing. In my early 20s I started to question everything, and over the course of 5 years or so (had to get rid of the TV first and not read any papers) the control/brainwashing wore off and I was beginning to see, connect the dots, see the whole picture. Now I knew why this world is so false and cruel - because it was made this way. More precisely, not exactly this life or this world, but our western society (for example, I heard there is a tribe of natives somewhere that doesn't have a word for "lying".. because it is a concept that they just don't know and don't live with, so it's not even present in their language). We are conditioned to hate each other and lie to each other. We are trained to suppress rage and sadness, and if the masters of the propaganda want to they can unleash those suppressed emotions against whatever enemy they want to create, and because we are trained not to feel empathy, these emotions will be very extreme and cruel. Our parents were victims of this and they passed it on to us, so we must question our own parents, our society, EVERYTHING around us, so that we can be free. When you, once you do not submit, once you start to question, start to realize that free thought is not encouraged, not even tolerated, but resisted fiercly, and that everyone around you, even those who you previously thought loved/liked you most, will try to exclude you for it, you will realize what a world this really is. And once you overcome that and do NOT submit (because of course you want to feel accepted again, so pretty much everyone submits again), you will be FREE. But from my experience not even 1 person in 100 makes it to that point.. probably more like 1 in a 1000. But it is a feeling that I wouldn't want to miss, not for all the pain in the world it has caused me.

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  100. I'll tell you, this burial at sea business is the new generation "lone gunman".

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  101. With no outside or independent verification,burial at sea makes perfect sense when you consider that Afghanistan is completely landlocked with no ports. yeah, I could see how that would be a tribal tradition for the great sea fareing tribes of Afganistan.

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  102. Posting from the airport. I just old the the TSA guy,' Hey buddy, Osama is dead, you can take your hand out of my ass now"

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  103. I wonder if all the margin maintenance issues have been priced in by now!? If not we could be getting another sell-off run perhaps?
    ------------------------------

    Futures Margin Update:

    With effect on 02 May 2011 @ 02:00 PM CET, the Initial and Maintenance margin for COMEX Silver 5,000 Oz (SI) will increase to USD 12,825 and USD 9,500 respectively.

    and on 04 May 2011 @ 02:00 PM CET, the initial and Maintenance margin for COMEX Silver 5,000 Oz (SI) will increase further to USD 14,513 and USD 10,750 respectively.

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  104. Joe, is those news fresh from today post-crash? If fear gripped the speculators in the recent crash, i'd expect those hikes not to be taken lightly.

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  105. "JoeKa said...
    I wonder if all the margin maintenance issues have been priced in by now!? If not we could be getting another sell-off run perhaps?"

    My broker still shows the same 11,7k initial and 8k maintenance from 1 week ago.. lol. But officially, the latest margin increase was applied by close of trading on Friday.. it's supposed to be effective since the open today.

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  106. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  107. ...Andddddd after all that bullshit, gold is back to 1557, silver nearly back to 46, and the DXY is right back under 73. What a freaking joke. But I'm still worried about the open and the 'mid-May correction' that was called for. I'm saving some dry powder for anymore downside. Got caught with my pants down this time, but no way will I pass up another opportunity to snatch up some contracts below $43 this late in the game.

    Bring it on, Blythe. I've been a loyal Turdite since December, don't think I haven't seen your crap before. Let's see you paint another Turd's Bottom on this chart. I double freaking dare you.

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  108. JoeKa is this something new (what's the date of the release)? Because if yes and if they keep the price hammered, indeed lots of fresh longs can get liquidated. Lots of people can be quite frustrated due to this, even furious. Didn't they do the same trick with Hunt brothers? Change the rules in the middle of the game ??? What other hacks can those crooks afford.

    But I think fresh longs will not affect the price so much and the whole action will have effect on sheep only. Smart money & billionaire club will pay double and triple for the shiny metal. As opposed to sheep, they've done their homework and they know where Silver is heading to.

    @ALL
    If you really want to hurt them, buy physical. AND LET YOUR FAMILY/FRIENDS/WHOMEVER YOU KNOW do the same. Making others aware is even more important.

    It doesn't have to be 2 kg of Silver. One ounce + awareness is enough. It won't cost you a thing if you extract 0,01 (0,000001?) % money from you options/futures account and order one of those beautiful coins.

    Remember how much Max Keiser has helped the society to expose JPM's scam. Like he recently stated on his site - by doing so you fight directly with fiat USD which is the banks' instrument to steal wealth from people and finance wars that nobody of us can afford (almost every war US is involved in is a war paid with loan/credit. Future generations will be so indebted because of current military spending!). This guy has spent years on Wall Street, he knows what he's talking about and we should be thankful such person 1) exists 2) has chosen to act.

    Be informed it's not probable but possible that they'll collapse whole derivatives market. At that point futures contracts price goes to ZERO. Options on spot become worthless. SLV which is purely based on promises (futures) and doesn't have any backing metal - follows. At the same time you won't be able to buy physical metal anymore because nobody will sell it to you: almost nobody will have it. Those who'll have it - like the Chinese - will show you middle finger when you show them FRN.

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  109. GOLD'S APPEAL SEEN UNDIMMED

    Concerns that extremist groups might launch reprisal attacks over the death of bin Laden may brighten gold's safe-haven appeal.

    "The threat from terrorism is not over. Others will fill the gap he has left. I suspect that his death will trigger a retaliatory attack in the short term," said Thurtell. "I think gold's status as a safe haven is intact."

    Markets across large parts of Asia and much of Europe were closed for May Day and Labour day holidays, reducing the number of market participants and making for volatile trade.

    Speculators scaled back their bullish bets in COMEX silver futures and options to the lowest level since early February, regulator data showed on Friday.

    Some traders put down silver's spectacular fall to an unwinding of a short gold-silver ratio position, compounded by automated stop-loss orders.

    "There is nothing from a fundamental perspective to cause a fall this large. Silver has been the most rapidly appreciating of the metals in the past months and if there was one that looked a bit frothy it was silver," said Ben Westmore, commodities economist at National Australia Bank.

    "This is mostly technical. We expect silver to be in
    relatively close step with gold and while both have risen strongly, silver may have moved a bit too far ahead."

    But in spite of the falls, traders said it was too soon to close the book on silver's astounding rally over the past 12 months.

    "Although that was a brutal wash out of some length, silver is now back into the original bullish trend channel, so while $41 holds, the trend is still intact," one trader said.

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  110. @kindabluzzay: Nah I think it's the same margin hikes we already knew about. I just wonder with the earlier washout, more of the smaller specs who didn't leave the trade will do so now on the Comex open causing another sell-off run. $40-42 looks like a nice zone to rebuy.

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  111. "$40-42 looks like a nice zone to rebuy."

    We think alike.

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  112. Mid-45 is getting chopped all over the place on magically new appearing volume. Love being nearly flat right now. This could go either way, and up seems much less likely. It's not even 8:30 yet.

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  113. "This could go either way, and up seems much less likely. It's not even 8:30 yet."

    And yet another similar thought we share! ;)

    I caught my phys silver giving me a smirk saying "I told ya so!"

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  114. CNBS are not sure why people are questioning the "buried at sea" issue

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  115. from Zerohedge

    Want to send the bankers a message and serve up the biggest nightmare possible to bankers? Use the massive dip that they thought would scare all silver holders out of their position as an opportunity to finally extract yourself from the awful possibility that silver and gold paper derivatives such as the SLV, GLD, and gold and silver futures contracts may crash in value in the future, even as the price of physical gold and physical silver rise, as more and more paper gold and paper silver owners convert their paper into physical. Convert your PAPER silver and PAPER gold into PHYSICAL silver and PHYSICAL gold now. In fact, use this dip to convert any paper, including dollars, Euros, Yen, and pounds, at your disposal into physical gold and physical silver.


    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/use-silver-dip-convert-paper-silver-physical-silver?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher

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  116. Aaaaaannnndddd the 8AM beatdown commences.

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  117. ben.roberts13@ 2:00...Right On!!! My Brotha!!!

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  118. I salute everyone who bought AGQ on friday as Turd urged you to do.

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  119. Starting to look dangerous as the minutes tick on. Bomb waiting to explode!

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  120. Comex opens at 8.30am right? This is pre-market action?

    Where is all this volume coming from? Totally mad!

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  121. @JoeKa
    8:30, correct. It would appear that certain folks would very much enjoy getting an open below 45. Conspiracy theory? Make of it what you will :)

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  122. I will say, whoever is buying/supporting 45 against the onslaught right now is my hero. They're made of sterner stuff than I, and I mean that as a great compliment. If nobody was stepping up in thin trade, EE would have this down at 40 right now.

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  123. Ok now that everyone is totally distracted, what peers around the other door that no one wants you too see?. Of course this announcement is nothing more than a risk trade distraction and treat it as such. Not making light of the fact that the media tells me this guy created 9-11 what ever, personally I have yet to see the body, and personally I believe nothing any of these so call elected officials put out, so I remain neutral in my opinion.

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  124. Top of the mornin Eric!
    We sure could use some Jack Sparrow swashbuckling action right about now! Silver's in the deep shits.

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  125. Got a good nights sleep. Ready to sit here and NOT trade, as needed. The 9:30 opening should be interesting to watch. My last nights feeling was to watch for the second dip this morning, so we'll see how it shakes out.

    I've got another gold coin winging it's way here from eBay as we speak.

    I've got nothing for sale. Only thing on my mind is if, what, and when to buy.

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  126. I am not afraid of an army of lions led by a sheep; I am afraid of an army of sheep led by a lion.
    Alexander the Great

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  127. has anybody been keeping up with preciousmetalsnews blog? http://preciousmetalsnews.blogspot.com/
    The site seems to have gone down like cornelius'. anybody hear anything?

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  128. JoeKa

    Well, it hasn't been boring. I'll give it that.

    I said what I needed to say fairly early on last night, then stayed quiet, and then went to bed.

    Sad for me, I have a fairly busy day today. I'm in the clear for about the first hour of trading, then in and out the rest of the day. Otherwise, I'm sure I'd be glued to the screen.

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  129. @Eric#1
    Yes, fun to watch. Not fun to trade. IF XAG gets to sub-42 I may dip in for a 50 cent flip, but that's it. I've seen some volume selling. I'd like to see some volume buying too, and not short-covering either. I want a commitment before I sleep with you XAG!

    Very happy I'm more of a PSLV and physical bar holder than paper holder. My shiny is winking at me too JoeKa :)

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  130. I know I'm biased, but I find myself watching gold more than silver last night and today. I think that's where I'll get my cues from, even if I look to buy something silver related.

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  131. @phage, preciousmetalsnews was one of my favorites. Great aggregator for all the good blogs, including this one. On Thursday he posted something about going on vacation 'till Tuesday and then the site went down this weekend. No idea.

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  132. What's to watch Eric#1? Gold hasn't barely moved :)
    I'm still in the money on my tiny hedge XAU I grabbed last wk to balance the GSR for my (once intended) switch. It was not intended to turn a profit!

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  133. @Phage

    I noticed that too. Unfortunate if it doesn't resurface soon. It is a useful blog site.

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  134. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  135. Here's an interesting article I found that relates to the goings on in the PM and overall markets.

    http://www.treasurefreedom.com/2011/05/02/the-concept-of-misdirection-and-how-it-relates-to-financial-markets/

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  136. Pailin

    I hear ya. I don't' do the wild and wooly stuff that a lot of our Turdlings do, but I feel their pain. I've been there. No "I told you so's" from me. A lot of people are going to be scarred by this for a long time, and I feel for them.

    But even today, especially today, continue to be careful out there.

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  137. How badly did Santelli want to scream manipulation a few minutes ago? I applaud his self-control. He's MSM, but if you read between the lines, on our side.

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  138. Thanks Eric#1. I know there's a lot of unspoken pain out there right now, especially those that are locked out of the markets waiting for 9:30. I can trade at any time but will likely not, so I appreciate the concern, but I'm being exceptionally careful already. Others may want to consider same.

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  139. Aaaaannnnddddd the 8:30 beatUP commences.

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  140. Yahoo finance front page littered with news of OBL. "Joy on the streets" across the U.S. Stock futures up, oil down, PM's down. Still around $45, could go lower, but looking out over the horizon and to reiterate TF, fundamentals haven't changed. Black swans continue to lurk. Euro bailouts will be front and center sooner than later; Greece 10 yr around 16%!

    BTFD, buy physical gold & silver & stay focused and patient.

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  141. Perhaps the hacks are less directed at controlling the site and ultimately targeting peoples trading accounts?
    Saying your going on holiday gives a window to transfer funds and get away.
    Need separate email accounts for their trading accounts and definitely different asci passwords!

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  142. Good morning. I continue to be a buyer. I think you should too. Physical, paper whatever is your thing, buy. If you were badly beaten last night and they have stolen your will, you need to reasses. Maybe silver is not the mkt for you. Maybe you should move to gold. Maybe you should not trade. Many months ago I mentioned that this was the deepest end of the pool.

    The burial at sea story proves our govt is not to be trusted. It totally negates the feel good Bin Laden is dead. PM coming right back. If you decide to exit and not play anymore, be careful not to come back at the top again.
    GTLA I continue to be a buyer

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  143. Since were all full of endorphins...And pumped up on patriotism...

    HOUSE FOR SALE HERE!

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  144. Pailin
    Yes, gold has barely moved. That's what I find so interesting. Relative strength in gold might inspire me to do a little trade today in silver or oil. Perverse? Misguided? Maybe, but that's what I'm thinking.

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  145. Turd...killed and then IMMEDIATELY buried at sea? And you bought it?

    I'm sure we'll see a retraction from you after sleeping on it. If I remember correctly, you don't trust "them" either.

    Misdirection...plain and simple. Some "good news" to help handle all the bad news. I wish I was awake...and able...to buy that huge dip last night.

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  146. premarket GDXJ really doesn't look that bad. Nothing like I was expecting last night.

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  147. i'm waiting for the markets to open so i can buy more silver. they will have to try much harder to shake me out.

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  148. I wouldn't dream of not playing any more. It's not time to quit. It's time to be more determined than ever. You only lose if you let them win. I don't intend to let anyone move me from accomplishing my goals.

    Have the best day possible all.

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  149. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  150. Oh great. My bank is experiencing DDOS-attacks which means any internet wire transfer order is impossible. Wanted to shift some cash to buy whatever dip is developing, but I guess that's out of the question too for today or so.

    Unless my broker goes broke I doubt this day can get any worse. Haven't really got a choice but to ride this out. If I sell AGQ, my cash account makes me wait three days. And I can't buy more in because my bank is being attacked.

    But the sun is shining and I'm quite happy regardless of the losses. It's only money. I like money but I'll be damned if I let some losses make me go unhappy. In a few days, a week, perhaps a month, it'll all be back, and I'd only feel stupid for feeling depressed about a price drop that mattered pretty little in the grand scheme of things.

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  151. I freaked last night and sold 1 of my 2 July silver futures contracts, near the bottom. Fifteen minutes later, after the initial shock had dissipated, I bought back (why sell like an amateur near the bottom when I should be doing a BTFD? I asked myself). Lost about $700 in a few minutes. The whole thing stinks of supreme desperation by the cartel. Up yours, Blythe. I ain't budging from my position.

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  152. yep, there it is

    AG--45.37 a moment ago

    that's the number

    of course, no one can see my posts

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  153. Hello Turd,
    Thanks for everything.
    I was wondering if this "correction" has thrown a "flying" monkey-wrench in your expectation of a consolidation 5/9 through 5/21.
    TIA

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  154. I would just like to point out, that if they rolled OBL out of the freezer to try to pump the dollar, it's apparently not working. And if an event of that magnitude cannot fix the dollar, you can surely expect even greater fireworks to come in the next month or two. Increasingly desperate measures etc etc. We have no idea the depths to which these criminals will sink, and what you will see in the next month or two will shock and awe you.

    Hold on to your Turdhats, people...

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  155. Fleve said,
    "But the sun is shining and I'm quite happy regardless of the losses. It's only money. I like money but I'll be damned if I let some losses make me go unhappy."

    You have got your thinking on straight. It's not fun to lose a bit.. ..but we are winning the long game. I admire your priorities. There are more important things and thanks for the reminder. :]

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  156. atlee- I'm right there with you brother. Silver was trading in a full market at 48 on Friday, a BS beatdown in a thin market means nothing more than a big sale this AM. I'm waiting to see if there is some margin selling or stops triggered on the 9:30 open, but I can't wait for this one.

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  157. Good morning everyone. Are we ready to make some money?

    My favorite headline so far: Silver falls on Bin Laden death.

    I've already lost my shirt overnight, so all I can do is resolve to make it all back. And then some. My strategy is completely unoriginal. Listen to Turd and move capital from silver to gold. Where do folks see value in gold stocks? Or will the leveraged gold etf's be your bet?

    GG is one of my oldest holdings. I bought it at $15. Over the years, it has bee outpaced by NEM, ABX, NG, and even AUY. The last couple week, however, GG has outperformed. I will be adding to my GG holdings for the first time in many years. My only worry: Cramer likes it. His embrace of AUY and NG needs no comment.

    What are you buying folks?

    Tom, have you updated your miner list?

    Good luck all.

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  158. @atlee
    I'm still good with silver trading, my dismal posts were related to not being able to buy the dip at 42.75, a trade. I'd be up 7% or so on that trade right now. Trust me, you'd be dismal too if you were, even temporarily, in liquidation by stop/loss only on your platform. And not knowing the exception would lift.

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  159. DRL Is a buy for someone looking to get a little headway on the day. Still long miners.

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  160. Decisions, decisions!
    If I bail on AGQ this morning, I could miss a retrace back above 46.50.

    Waiting for 9:30 to see how my SLV calls and AGQ put streads faired--not well, but perhaps teh wound is not fatal... unless I bail out from intimidation.

    But I would like to cut losses if we are going to retest 40-42.

    last night's events are constraingn me to put a higher percentage in physical nad only keep in the paper market what I can tolerate losing.

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  161. Atlee I am wondering how much rent they paid at the Frostee Freeze in downtown D.C. over the last 9 years or so before finally rolling the body out today? What? Did they hang him up alongside the fudgesickles?

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  162. EXK, GPL, SLW-- these guys seem to be leading the pack in their losses. Just a continuation of Friday.

    I expected PAAS to tank on the Bolivia news. Nope. CDE only down 1.99%

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  163. @pailin, pining and FOAGQ

    Glad you guys are still with us. We will most likely go into a consolidation phase now and move sideways in a pretty wide range. Depends on the BOS and their plan. Keep in mind that they also want to accumuate as low as possible. Top of this rane might only be 47 for a while. Just guessing right now. So still look for dips. We will get them. I suspect from 45.60 is to 46.25 we may struggle and get a little dip. GLTA Ps I am typing fast so apologize for typos.

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  164. whos buying into this thin market

    price seems to be slowly picking up but EE raid will be on the menu today quite possibly

    waiting till 12-1330 @ what happens

    44.5 feels like good support

    45.5 resistance

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  165. SSK
    take a serious look at NGD.

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  166. So at this point, what are the chances that CME does NOT raise margins yet again to match what the other firms have done?

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  167. SSK

    Allied Nevada has been my favorite gold of late.

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  168. closed many longs at ~49, will wait for realy big dip like 36 or something, I just wanna `pay back` that wicked bitch. Feel a bit sorry for osama, he was a honest guy - just sitting in his cave while bush cia gang was putting explosives into building 7.

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  169. FOAGQ - I'm on the sidelines. Any signficant buying would take me into margin territory and although I am very sure we're going back up this week I'm not going to mess around.

    May sell for my first loss though if I think I can get back in lower. Same thoughts you're having Doc Jerome.

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  170. bankstas so desparete to keep sheeple from fleeing the dollar into PM's, propeganda media ressurects bin laden. Silver off because of the FRYday margin hike. Those standing for May delivery got liquidated at the open of globex for not ponying up the additonal FRN's for the hike. Those who got liquidated out of their silver or cash bonus by banksters will be back in force. jpig will continue to be squeezed for silver it doesn't have; neither the crimex. By mid week we'll be screaming up if not sooner. Dollar is dead.

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  171. Continue selloff... Exactly how is it that the opening of the stock market affects the silver futures? ETF liquidation?

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  172. I don't watch TV, so I just got the news about OBL. PM's seem only a bit down since last week. Not a surprise. Ho hum.

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  173. @rthaler

    It is possible they never had him and he either died of natural causes or isn't dead! I am thinking that burial at sea leaves the door wide open for claims he is still alive.

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  174. Morning all, welcome to the PM war zone.

    Incoming

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  175. PROPAGANDA ALERT!!!!!!!!!!!!

    AP reports that Osama bin Laden's body was buried at sea. The United States government says it has done so to observe Islamic law.

    No dead body means BS!!!!!!!!!!!!! Ok that will be my last comment on the subject.

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  176. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  177. Bought AGQ @ 316 good luck to all !!

    Thanks for all your work Turd !!

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  178. Dave,

    Ballsy.

    AUY, HMY, AB, NGD, GG-- all down less than 2%.
    I'm looking at the charts on these guys. Gotta go with the leaders after all that has happened.

    SSK

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  179. Good morning all. Wow is all I can say. That was a huge drop in price based on very little volume.

    I can't find any real reason for this drop nor did it occur in other PM's as significantly as in AG. It also wasn't the OBL news fostering flight to the greenback (POSX is still in the shitter).

    It looks to me like the EE took the opportunity of a few markets being closed combined with margin hikes to give us a perfect storm. Likely a few accounts werent fully funded and had to liquidate as markets opened.

    My paper is down only if I sell which I have no intention of. This is a huge opportunity to buy. We will be right back where we started very soon is my guess. maybe within days.

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  180. Turd, au contraire, you have to take this facts and question each and every one of them to get the best bias possible when doing your analysis, just as you talk about "the cartel" in PMs. Maybe a guy working at (say)JPM would think you are a loonie, but you've reached here (you and your blog) exactly BECAUSE you thought "maybe this market is poisoned...".
    Well, now let you patriotism aside and think "Why now? Why like this? What does this have to do with the economy, PMs, USD, etc?"
    Please take this message just as the one about the warnings about the NIA other commentors had a couple of weeks ago. Everyone is on the same side here: TRUTH. Kudos to you and your blog.

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  181. I just lightened my SLV options position by ~1/3, ate a small loss.....but now have dry powder if another dip occurs....but also have some skin in for the run up.

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  182. That's all they've got? THis is turning out to be one helluva buying opp. EXK a dollar up off its low.

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  183. MIssed my chance to BTFD on CEF. Too slow on the trigger. Dealing with some other issues here at home today.

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  184. Breaking even right now on SLV options. Not bad maybe....considering.

    Gotta say.....I am surprised that Beck is not questioning the authenticity of the Bin Laden story/news on radio this a.m. He seems to be celebrating it ..mostly for the Seals involvement. ....I don't just blindly trust anyone ..but this is surprising to me and makes me suspicious of him/motives. Got to say it as isn't he one of the MAIN ones who has been outfront questioning the mainsteam media's motives??..But now.. with this story that is full of holes.....unquestionable acceptance??? Something isn't right here. :[

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  185. $46.25 in sight, watch for a melt-up/algo war to take us right back to 47+; we have only seen 1 raid by the EE (at the open) stay nimble, as we have econ reports out in mins...

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  186. @SSK

    Silver was the only thing that had taken a "big" hit
    last night. The dollar was still drifting lower and "The Turd " has exposed many of the games being played, so I felt "a little " more comfortable.
    We'll see how it goes :)

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  187. @ Dave
    You are a rock star ! Great job bud!

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  188. @ Atlee

    Thanks :) I hope it works out.... I think we're in for some increased volitility...

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  189. what's next, 100% margin? The beast has been let out of the cage.

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  190. Okay, folks. Just a casual observation, along the lines of Edward's post above.

    It is 10:00AM MON and, after a night of 1000 posts and disruption of Mrs Turd's birthday dinner, I see we are down a whopping $1.70 from Friday's close.

    When I got into the silver market I read many things which warned about the "gut wrenching" volatility. You probably did, too.

    To me, gut wrenching would be when you discover you've got pancreatic cancer. Unless you've got your entire family fortune on the line (I certainly hope not) this is just a test of nerve and judgment, but in a game that we are winning. This may not be the last $6 swing we see. Better get used to it.

    Just my .02 Have fun. :)

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  191. 46.55 +/- is 61.8% fib retracement.

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