More Fed BS

Once again in case you missed it, The Wicked Witch and her sidekick, Ruprecht, had another one of their famous planning meetings today. If you haven't yet seen it, here's the link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOnKAh1L9e8

In a desperate attempt to shave a few dollars off of the price of gold before the release tomorrow of the March BLSBS report, your Federal Reserve rolled out another one of their worthless, Keynesian hacks to talk up the dollar late this afternoon. This time, they chose some crackpot shill from Minnesota who I'd never heard of before and whose name I can't pronounce. "Kosherdakota" or some such nonsense. As if it matters what this clueless prick has to say. Well, actually I guess it does matter. Kosherdakota's words of wisdom were enough to trip a few algos into sell mode and gold is now about $10 lower than it was at 4:00 EDT. Such bullshit and that's $10 we won't get back without a concerted effort by longs tomorrow. Whatever. Who, in their right mind, would sell their gold and/or silver on the back of the late afternoon musings of a criminal Fed thug? Not me, that's for sure. Further evidence of the manipulation is seen in the rising price of WTI at the same time. Crude actually traded all the way to 107.65 about an hour ago and sits currently at 107.20. Check out this chart:

Having now cleared 106.80, the chart is open all the way to the old highs of 108.25. Absent a spontaneous eruption of love and nirvana in the Middle East, I'd say there's about a 99% likelihood we see 108+ overnight or during the day tomorrow.

Onto gold and silver and the pivotal day ahead tomorrow. Take a look at these two charts:

IF the BLS can somehow put some additional BS in their report tomorrow, we may get enough of a selloff that every topcaller from here to Fukushima will be out in force claiming the doubletop in silver is in. First, I highly doubt that the BLSBS report will show anything that a reasonable analyst will be able to construe as positive. Second, even if they did, all the Prechter wanna-bes will be proven wrong in a week or so anyway so fuck em.
Gold's the same. LIESman may be able to talk it down to 1410 but who cares? Again, I doubt he'll get the chance. Tomorrow will just be like all of the recent past BLSBS days. Scaredy cats will do some selling into and right after the number. Calm, sane investors will soon step in and silver and gold will catapult higher. Right now, I'd place a very high probability that gold will trade to and close near 1450 and silver will eclipse the old highs at 38.20 and make a move toward 38.50-39. There. Take that, Kosherdakota! Put that in your peyote pipe and smoke it, you machiavellian goon.

And one more thing before I sign off for the day.
QE IS NEVER GOING TO END. PERIOD. IT CAN'T AND IT WON'T.

Anyone who tries to tell you that QE is about economic growth and avoiding deflation is either:
1) St-st-st-stupid
2) Dangerously clueless
3) Manipulatively trying to sell you something
or 4) just a status quo-loving hack/moron

QE is about funding the federal government and maintaining the U.S. ponzi "as is" for as long as possible. By some estimates, The Fed is now 70%+ of the treasury "market". Without their direct participation, where would the 10-year note be trading? 5%? 7%? 10%? With rates that high, the entire Fed/TBTF/Govt complex begins to unravel. This can not and will not be allowed to happen. It will happen eventually, anyway, but the Fed isn't about to voluntarily let it happen. No way, no how.

As discussed ad nauseam, your only option is to protect yourself. Do not rely upon the government. Do not rely upon your employer. Do not rely upon your stockbroker. Buy physical gold and silver. Gold protects your wealth. Silver protects your ability to purchase everyday items. The time to prepare is now.

Tomorrow is a rather significant day in the short-term pricing of gold and silver. It will be fun to watch. But don't let the bastards drag you down. We are right and we are winning. Rest well and be happy. TF

The Wicked Witch Returns

I finally had some time to create another video...and just in time!!
The Wicked Witch has had a tough week. She and Ruprecht are making some new plans. Enjoy!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOnKAh1L9e8

Groundhog Day

What the heck is going on? I went to bed on the night of the 30th and, apparently, I've woken up on the 24th. Frankly, I hope it is the 24th. If it is, I'm going to sell all my PMs and put it all on VCU.

Seriously, though. The Cartel/Fed/CME Complex gave us all they had over the past week. Here we are, one week later, and the prices of silver, gold and crude have completely rebounded. Whodathunk that the half-life of a margin hike is less than the half-life of radioactive iodine? (Got to admit...I didn't know the iodine part a couple of weeks ago. Actually, I wouldn't have thought the margin hike half-life was that short a couple of weeks ago, either.)

At any rate, we're kickin ass and takin names this morning. As per usual, the PMs are being led by crude. Here's the deal, though. It really needs to keep heading higher. If it stops here are rolls over, it will still be within the pennant I drew for you last night. See here:

OK, so here's the updated chart as of this morning. See what I mean?

Alright, now the fun stuff. First, lets look at gold. How many times has Santa mentioned that it would take 3 stabs at 1444 before gold would finally best that level and move forward toward his next "angel" of 1521. Hmmmm, is this stab #3?

And silver just looks great. The FUCME formation has been completed and Turd is happy. Today and tomorrow have the potential to be very fun days in silver.

Lastly, the USDA released their latest planting estimates this morning.
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2011/03/31/us_expects_bigger_corn_crop_to_ease_food_inflation/
Looks bearish today for corn but bullish for soybeans. If looking to buy corn, I'd wait for the dip to play out and then begin buying. The number of acres planted with corn will surely decrease by the time its all actually "in the ground" six weeks from now.

Have a fun morning. TF

Oh and this worked pretty well. Since it did, we might want to be wary of next week.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/something-to-chew-on.html

And this seems in line with some of the stuff we've been discussing here:
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/retail/2011-03-30-wal-mart-ceo-expects-inflation_N.htm


10:55 am EDT UPDATE:
What? Another "Margin Hike Thursday"? We'll see but the "Groundhog Day" theme continues:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZbtAFq7dP8

The Wisdom of Santa

Just read this from Santa. Decided it was worthy of its own post and comments here. Please read and consider. If making similar plans, perhaps you can share them in the comments section.
As always, Santa can be found daily at:
http://174.133.72.211/

Posted: Mar 30 2011     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: March 30, 2011 at 6:14 pm

Filed under: In The News

My Dear Friends,

Truth be told, the major theme of JSMineset has been one of self reliance in a monetary, physical and Emersonian sense. Our focus has been on your assets, your debt positions, legal matters and investment.

I have, with my dear friends here at JSMineset, tried to share what we know with you. We also pride ourselves in that we not only talk the talk, but also walk the walk.

Has Trader Dan not moved from Houston to an undisclosed location in Idaho? I am writing to you from a farm in North Western Connecticut, a rural part of the state. We provide our own water, can provide our own power, have a radio system fallback for communication, satellite phones, furnaces that burn coal or oil, an indoor pistol range that can take up to .50 calibre cartridges into a Detroit bullet trap, perimeter lighting, 16 camera day and night camera security and much more.

We have focused on conservative financial structures which were in truth taking you into the position of being your own central bank.

I have received from many people on my 70th birthday greetings plus small letters telling me how they have benefited from this link. Let me mention but two. A lady in the minerals industry lost her job and is the mother of two children and only bread winner in the house. She had very little money, but saved up a nest egg. She admits she did speculate but used the Angels. She now has $2,000,000 and has finished her period of speculation.

Chris from Canada told me that his portfolio, now mostly fully paid gold and silver, is worth $5,000,000. It was nowhere near that when he started.

Every effort here was to make you your own central bank which resulted in financial self reliance for many.

There is one more step that you really need to consider. The housing market is in a black hole from which it very well might not recover for generations. Land is cheap. When homes or small farms have been foreclosed on, resulting in bank owned property, they are sold in a fire sale to buyers with cash in hand.

Do as I have done. Do as Trader Dan has done.

The pictures below are on my maple syrup operations and my build it yourself greenhouse. The vegetables for my garden are already sprouting. I have fruit trees and am adding mature nut trees.

I strongly suggest that if you have benefitted from JSMineset, as many of you have, consider buying yourself a hobby farm and seriously go for the exercise of self reliance. I am certain that if even to cut costs you are going to need it.

The financial system is screwed up beyond any repair. On top of that there is no desire to repair anything because the wise guys know it is impossible. It is the world that the flushing of Lehman Bros. has created. It is not a brave new world. It is more like an audition for a world of Mad Max and the Day After.

It does not matter whether or not there is more QE. The damage is done and there is no solution.

Earth shaking events are taking place in the Middle East that the media would have you believe is a spontaneous outburst of democracy. Like hell it is. It is a move from some sort of rule, like it or not, to chaos.

Now that you are financially in good shape, please get physically self reliant.

Regards, 
Jim (Santa)

A Couple of Nice FUBMs

Just a quick post to give you some number to watch as we head into the Comex close. We are laying the foundation of another leg higher, particularly in gold. Tomorrow and Friday will be very interesting.

And I must say that I think this HUI chart looks very bullish. Very bullish.
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/03/hui-still-in-range-trade.html

More later. TF

That's More Like It

Somehow the charts to the right got turned upside-down. How unusual it is to see spikes UP in the 8:00 hour!!

Just a quick update this morning. The metals are rocking. The were strong overnight and then got kicked higher by the "disappointing" ADP jobs number. So, I guess QE3 is back on again? What a joke! Can't wait to hear LIESman, The Coug and The Shill discuss things on Friday morning. Should be good for quite a few laughs.

Gold just looks fantastic. Even while crude is flat to slightly lower, gold has blasted through some resistance at 1424 and is charging higher. So confident am I that this chart looks great, I encourage you to buy any dip this morning back toward 1425. We definitely look to be headed now back toward the highs of last week. What id Santa say? The third trip over 1444 was the last one? Well, get ready because here it comes.

Silver has a bit of a different look. The bowl-shaped nature of the correction (if we can call it that) suggests that a spike toward the 38+ area is coming. Once again, you can bet your batooty that Blythe and The Monkeys will be waiting there with nearly unlimited paper sell orders and they will desperately try to paint a double-top on the chart. Don't worry, we've been through this countless times before. Painting the chart hasn't worked for them yet and it won't work this time, either. The fundos will overwhelm them again. Personally, I'm going to wait for the double-top and the subsequent pullback to 37.50-60 before adding to positions.

That's it for now. I have lasts of:
1427.20 in gold and
37.59 in silver
It should be an interesting day. TF

p.s. I forgot to add this link a reader sent me. Its an interview of the CEO of EXK.
http://radio.goldseek.com/endeavoursilver/


10:50 EDT UPDATE:
The only reason I can find for the steep selloff is the crude inventory report.
These computer algo driven "markets" are enough to make you suicidal sometimes. Crude inventories fluctuate every week but this is clearly a reason to sell your gold. Now! What a joke.
As long as the metals remain tied to crude, they'll remain stuck in this rut. Fundos be damned. Apparently, all that matters is crude up, buy gold. Crude down, sell gold. Ridiculous.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/build-oil-inventories-leads-plunge-gold

Ag Commodities and The Coming Inflation

Longtime readers will recall that we've had several conversations here regarding the impact that the Fed's quantitative easing policy is having on the costs of everyday food items. Soaring prices of agricultural commodities are going to continue to have a devastating effect on the purchasing power of average Americans and consumers around the globe. Since prices have now recovered some from the selloffs after the Japanese earthquake and tsunami and since there is no end in sight to QE, I thought it was time to once again take a look at out favorite commodities and assess where their prices may be headed over the spring and summer.

Let's start with the grains because rising grain prices cause all sorts of inflation. Not only are grains the raw input to countless consumer goods, grains are also the primary foodstuff for cattle ranchers and hog finishers as they prepare their herds for slaughter. Let's start with wheat, which is being influenced not just by the falling dollar. Price is also feeling the impact of the ongoing drought in the "winter wheat zone" of the high plains of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-24/worst-texas-drought-in-44-years-eroding-wheat-beef-supply-as-food-rallies.html
Now take a look at the chart. Long-term support held at $7.50 and wheat looks almost certain to catapult higher very soon.

OK, so how about corn? Corn is extremely important in food production as it is used not only as a primary ingredient but as a sweetener, as well. First, let's look at the chart. Support was found, as expected in the area around $6.50. I have no doubt that corn will soon resume its upward move along its primary trendline from last summer.

Now here's the deal with corn...it's expensive to grow! The primary fertilizer that Midwestern corn farmers utilize is anhydrous ammonia. Last year, anhydrous ammonia cost your average farmer about $425/ton. This year, the cost has almost doubled to $750-800/ton. So, while it might be tempting to seed a lot of acres with corn to capitalize on the high price, the input and production costs are so high that many farmers will choose to plant soybeans, instead. Less acres of corn planted lead directly to less production. Less production leads directly to even higher prices. (Remember that below when we get to cattle.)

So what about soybeans? Soybeans are the one grain that I don't expect to rise in price. They will, most likely, stay rangebound through the summer. Why? Besides the fertilizer costs affecting plantings, soybeans get extra acreage for another reason: Weather. Because soybeans have a shorter growing season, they are a "fall back plan" for many farmers who struggled to get corn planted due to overly wet spring conditions.
http://www.galesburg.com/news/x1777821638/Galesburgs-spring-outlook-cool-and-wet
If the upper Midwest spring turns out cool and wet, many farmers will forego corn planting and turn, instead, to soybeans. Extra supply = Lower cost.

Now, let's get back to corn. Have you ever heard the term "corn-fed beef"? Most of the best steakhouses proudly champion corn-fed beef because, frankly, its tastes a helluva lot better than grass-fed. The high sugar content of the corn gets converted into fat. The fat makes its way into the muscle and you, Mr. Steakeater, get yourself a beautiful, marbled "prime" steak. Fat cows are also desirable at slaughter because, well, they weigh more and cattle are sold by the pound. OK, so now, pretend for a moment that you're a cattle rancher. As your cattle are growing and being prepared for market (the term is "finished"), you want to feed them as much corn as they'll eat and you can afford. Corn at $7.00/bushel really cramps your business plan. Your first reaction is to control costs by thinning your herd, i.e. you sell some prematurely, before they are "finished". You might also simply want to sell some of your herd to take advantage of today's high prices.
http://www.saljournal.com/news/story/Cattle-prices-32411
Either way, this extra supply in the short term has actually worked to keep cattle prices from soaring at the same rate as the grains. But this is temporary. By this summer, supply will decrease as cattle that would have been coming to market just then have already been slaughtered. Are we already beginning to see this play out on the chart? Well, take a look:

Many of the same dynamics are in play in the pig market. Note the similar chart pattern of a recent breakout to new highs.

So what does all this mean? It means you'd better prepare. Maybe you're comfortable and you have all the disposable income you need. Great, but what about your sister, trying to raise her three kids on 50 grand a year? What about your neighbor or your best friend who is trying simply to make ends meet after losing a job? What can you do to help them?

You start by warning them about the coming surge in food costs brought about by quantitative easing. All of the factors discussed above, combined with soaring fuel costs, will most certainly lead to a much higher "cost of living" in the near future. The time to act is now.

Trying to Improve

Our metals really hung in well today. They both looked terrible again this morning and, frankly, I was worried that we might get a bit of a "buyers strike" and see things fall. I'm happy to report that we avoided this fate.

Before we get to the charts of interest, a little follow up on last night's post. Lots of interesting discussion regarding this article. If you haven't read it yet, I suggest you do it now:
http://www.minyanville.com/investing/articles/silver-silver-price-comex-comex-account/3/28/2011/id/33607
Much of the discussion centered upon which central banks might actually have silver to lease. Luckily, the article's author is a closet Turdite and he contacted me this morning with some clarification. Below is a c&p of his comments. I hope this helps clear up some of the confusion.

Mr. Turd,

Thanks for posting my article this morning on silver and leasing.  I actually read your blog on a regular basis since I do very little TA and mostly fundamentals.  Your info certainly helps get the complete picture.

I think there is some confusion about who is doing the leasing.  I referenced "central banks" in the article but did not mean that term to be exclusive.  For gold leasing, central banks are the primary culprit, but for silver it is most likely to be what I called "bullion banks", including the "caretaker" custodian of SLV itself.  Rather than interchange the term I kept using "central bank" for what I thought would be easier to understand.  Some of your commenters rightfully pointed out the inconsistency. 

In any event, thanks again for the posting. Keep up the good work. I enjoy reading your thoughts. Jeff

OK, back to business. As we discussed earlier, the breakout in oil helped rescue the metals today. Around 11:00, oil sagged and took the metals with it. But then, when all seemed lost, it reversed again and actually stands now at $104.71/bbl, just 29 cents off its high of the day. Predictably, the metals are firming up, too.

Where crude trades from here will obviously impact the next 65 hours in the metals. Fortunately, the crude chart now looks friendly and a move toward $105.75 seems likely. That extra dollar in crude should help silver move toward 37.50 and provide the impetus for about $10 in gold, too.

Because of the current coupling of crude and gold, I've added a crude widget to the upper right of the blog. It updates every 10 minutes so it provides a reasonable snapshot for our purposes here.

Lastly, here's a followup from Patrick Heller on the various ways to purchase gold and silver. Some may find it helpful.
http://news.coinupdate.com/other-options-for-investing-in-gold-and-silver-0737/

More later. Keep an eye on crude! TF

p.s. If you really want to have a few laughs, read this:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/29/japan-lost-race-save-nuclear-reactor
and then read this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corium_(nuclear_reactor)
Yikes!

A Positive Development

Take a look at this 30-minute May crude chart:

As you all know, the metals (particularly gold), have been following almost every UP and down tick in crude for about the past month. Note the similarity of the crude 30-minute chart to the gold and silver 30-minute charts I posted earlier. But here's the catch...note that crude has broken the downward trend line and is clearly above it. IF this can hold...and, so far, crude is already about 60 cents off its highs...you will see the metals follow through this afternoon, regardless of the EE price-capping action we've seen the past two days.

So, watch crude very closely this afternoon. I now have a last of 104.13. Nuts. It will need to find buyers at 104 or so and then move toward 105 to bring the metals higher. TF

Cracklin Rosie

I made the mistake of writing the word "rosy" on a chart below. Now this song is stuck in my head and probably will be all day. C'mon, click the link. Share my pain.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6FfjlxZLTk&feature=related

Well, our precious PMs are stuck in a little rut. Ever since the dreaded 1-2 doublepunch of the margin hike and Fed hack, we've had a little down channel that has contained us. Conveniently, it does give us some direction, however. First look at silver. It has found a "base" right around 36.50. IF it were to reverse today, break through the trendline and move above 37.25, I could do some buying as I'd expect 37.80 and then a run at the highs of last week. Conversely, IF we roll over this morning, head lower and proceed to trade down through 36.50, I think we can be quite certain that a test of 35.75 is in the cards.

 Big brother gold looks almost identical. A "base" has been found near 1412. It now needs to move UP and away, toward 1425 and beyond. IF that happens, we'll be set up for a run toward 1440 and 1450.

Lastly, here's a c&p of an email I received yesterday. Apparently, it is from the "Graham Summers Free Weekly Market Forecast". Taken with all of the other "interesting developments" of late, its another think made to make you go "Hmmm".
(Hey wait! Maybe this will break Cracklin Rosie from my head?)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XF2ayWcJfxo

Anyway, more later. TF

This is the most important chart related to the financial system today:

This is a chart of the US monetary base. In simple terms, it charts how much money the Fed has pumped into the system (at least that it admits). So it’s a kind of visual of the Fed hitting the PANIC button: when the monetary base explodes higher, the Fed is FREAKING out.

You'll note that during the Financial Crisis the Fed didn't do much until the autumn of 2008 when it pumped nearly $1 trillion into the system. Think about that, the Fed didn’t go nuts pumping money until the stuff REALLY hit the fan.

You'll also note that there's only one other time when the monetary base went absolutely vertical: TODAY.

Indeed, the Fed has pumped nearly $500 billion into the system since the start of 2011. Don't even try to tell me this is QE 2. If it was then the monetary base should have spiked in late 2010, NOT in 2011.

No, this is the Fed FREAKING OUT about the financial system again. And it's a freak out on par with 2008.

So if you think that all is well "behind the scenes" you're in for a rude surprise. Something BIG is going down and I think it’s this:

This is the 31-year weekly chart of the 30-Year Treasury. As you can see, since 1988, the 30-Year has respected the above trendline. Every time we touched up against it, the 30-Year bounced hard and continued its long-term bull market.

The last time we nearly took out this line? The very beginning of 2011:

Remember, the interest-rate based derivatives market in the US is $196 TRILLION. If the Fed lets interest rates get out of hand, then the entire system breaks down even worse than it did in 2008: 2008’s crisis was triggered by the credit defaults swap market which was just $50-60 trillion in size (less than 1/3 of the interest rate based derivatives market).

Small wonder the Fed is going nuts pumping $500 billion into the system in the last three months alone. After all, once the Fed loses control of interest rates (and it will) we’re going to see a market 4-5X bigger than the credit default swap market implode.

Are you prepared?

Graham Summers


ps. For all that can't see the chart above, here it is again:

and this is for "Larry":
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRgtvYw6t_A

and here is more Graham Summers via ZH:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/are-you-prepared-another-2008-part-2

and the hits just keep on coming:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuFoMgP4IPo

A Couple Quick Charts

As we watch the PMs roll over again this evening, I thought I should give you some updated charts for the overnight.

First, here's a daily silver. Note that we have clung to the primary trendline for almost 8 months now.

OK, now here's a much shorter chart. This is a 30-minute. Note that we are at a level where we could possibly find some strong support. If support fails, however, we could quickly fall toward last night's lows.

Lastly, I'd like to thank all of you who so politely pointed out to me that the Comex has until Thursday to scrounge up all the silver they need for March delivery. (That Hendrick's is really some fine-tasting but nasty stuff. Been brain-farting all day. Scotch used to do that to me, too.) At any rate, as we approach the end of the month, you can be certain that volatility will remain. To that end, please take a few minutes to read this very informative article I found today. Silver leasing is the real money maker for The Cartel but its something that very few (including me), outside of the inner circles, really understand. This article will help. It will also provide you with a word of caution as we approach the end of the month. Sacred cows are not often slaughtered so we need to watch this situation very closely.
http://www.minyanville.com/investing/articles/silver-silver-price-comex-comex-account/3/28/2011/id/33607

Keep an eye on things overnight. Tomorrow will be interesting. TF

Settlement

I don't know whether or not to be happy with today. I thought we'd trade higher overnight...we didn't. I feared we'd trade lower during the day...we didn't. The metals ended up mixed with silver slightly higher and gold modestly lower. Ho-hum. For an option expiration day (gold) and a settlement day (silver), I guess we should be pleased that the damage wasn't any worse.

In fact, today's CME notice showed us that, as of Friday, the Comex still had to settle 388 March contracts today. I guess they got it done. Perhaps this was part of the reason for the rebound in silver today as March contract holders got their JPM$ and rolled into May?
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_settlements_futures.html

So here are your charts for today. First, here's a 2-hour gold followed by a 1-hour gold. Note that we are rangebound but that, within the range, it looks more like it wants to go lower than higher. We need to push thru 1425 and above 1430 to make me short-term excited.

Here's a look at it's greazy twin brother, crude. Note that it also looks like it wants to keep heading lower. A move through 103.50 will take it toward 102.50 and, if that happens, you can bet your batooty that it'll drag gold down with it.

Silver continues to be our star performer. This serves to reinforce the idea that much of what we see regarding supply squeezes etc is, in fact, a real phenomenon. However, it too needs to get up and go a bit so that we can feel more comfortable in buying. A move tonight or tomorrow toward 37.50 would make Turd very happy. Rolling over here would drag us back toward today's lows and even 36.25. If that were to fail, we'd probably see a test of the major support at 35.75.

I wish I had more for you but time is short today so I have to sign off for now. I hope to have another post for you later this evening. TF

Well, That Sucked

Every once in a while, ole Turd rolls out a real clunker like last night's post. Must have been the gin...

At any rate, after taking a beating in the overnight hours, our precious precious metals have begun to rally back. I speculated in the comments of the earlier thread that perhaps a "capitulative low" may be reached during the regular bloodletting hour. So far, that's worked out pretty well. Right on schedule, silver reached a low of $36.43 at 8:20 EDT as the monkeys tried to capitalize on the downside momentum. It has since rebounded almost 40 cents to 36.82. As it recovers, its first hurdle will be the double-bottom from late last week, at 36.85-90. If/when it gets back through there today, it will encounter some more resistance at 37.10 and 37.30 but lets worry about that later. For now, lets hope we stand strong in the face of the option expiry nonsense and hold the line around the earlier lows.

Gold is just stuck. Last week showed that someone or something is keenly interested in keeping it below 1440. On the plus side, it also showed that there are a lot of buyers in the area around 1410. So, for now, we are simply rangebound. Have been for a couple of weeks now. Probably will be for a while longer.

Lastly, some folks have asked me to comment on this:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/03/28/528886/some-curious-silver-forward-patterns/
I wish I was smart enough to offer some enlightened opinion. It looks to me like a couple of banks are searching rather diligently for some silver and are willing to pay up for it. Anyone have other explanations? Is this even anything significant? I don't know.

As I submit, we're back up above 37 and 1418. Very Nice!!
More later. TF

Overnight Sunday

After a late night last night with Princess Sweetness and Hendrick's gin (http://www.hendricksgin.com/),
The Turd is prepared to call it a weekend. I would be remiss, however, if I didn't give our Far Eastern Turdites some levels to watch overnight.

Predictably, the metals opened lower tonight. This has been the pattern of late. Blythe and the monkeys, hoping to beat the traffic on the L.I.E.,  cut out early on Friday, allowing the metals to rally on the Friday afternoon Globex. The monkeys report back to their desks on Sunday evening and immediately set out to claw back the gains. Tonight, both metals bottomed about where we'd like them to and have now moved back higher. I have lasts of 1427 and 37.23.

Conveniently, The Cartel has left us with some very clear levels to watch as we trade through Monday around the globe. First up are the Globex closing highs from Friday. I would be very surprised if I awaken tomorrow and find that we did not eclipse those levels overnight. Once those levels are behind us, we'll need to best the early morning (U.S.) highs from Friday, around 37.80 in silver and 1438 in gold. Closing above or near those levels would be a very nice and ambitious goal for tomorrow. Then, Tuesday, we can go tackle the highs from last Thursday around 38.15 and 1448.

That's it for tonight. Can't wait to start another crazy and wild week! TF

Your Weekend Update

Wow! What a crazy and wild week that was. We have found levels in gold and silver that The Cartel is desperate to defend. They threw the proverbial kitchen sink at us this week in the form of margin hikes and Fed hacks but we are still standing and looking good!

First of all, check out this weekly chart of the CRB. I mentioned last week that it had an almost identical look to the chart from last November. Note the decline then stopped right at the blue moving average line. It then reversed and rode the red line for the next 90 days. The same thing is happening now and it appears we are entering another prolonged period of gains. If you haven't bought some intermediate term exposure to grains, crude and metal, now would be the time to do it as another double-digit percentage move in this index appears to be in the offing.

Now check out silver. First, here's the chart from last week:

Line #2 did, in fact, take us back inside the primary trend. It happened on Thursday. Well, you all know what happened next...the deliberate, manipulative 1,2 punch of the margin hike and Fed hack speech.
However, buying materialized not selling! All The Cartel was able to accomplish was a delay. They are in the same position this weekend that they were in last weekend. Looky here:

Not only that, their actions were actually quite helpful as we now have a defined support level to watch at 36.90. IF that gets broken, you can use it as a sign to book some profits. Until then, long and strong, baby!

Onto, gold and crude. Here is a picture of them:

Seriously, for some reason, these two became joined at the hip back in February and they have remained that way now for the past five weeks. Almost frickin identical.

Lastly, The EE continues to get some negative mainstream media coverage. Whether or not this will have any long-term effect is debatable. 

http://blogs.forbes.com/traceygreenstein/2011/03/25/j-p-morgan-chase-and-hsbc-may-have-gained-billions-from-influencing-the-price-of-silver-2/

And, if anyone out there is still wondering what the heck EE stands for, please review this:

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/getting-up-to-speed.html

So that's it for now. I am headed out of town to visit my friend Princess Sweetness and his family. Sweetness and I go way back so its always fun to hang out, watch some hoops and drink some of his gin and his wine, for a change. I'll update the blog again after the Globex opens tomorrow evening. Until then...chill, smile and be happy. The Evil Empire is rapidly losing control of their domain. We are winning. TF

p.s. Here's some light reading until I get back
http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/03/how-likely-is-qe-three.html
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/03/continous-commodity-index-remains-near.html
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/03/silver-musings.html
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/3/23_Embry_-_Breakaway_Move_Coming_in_Gold,_Oil_$150_to_$200.html