Thursday, May 26, 2011

Changing Sentiment

Of course you recall earlier this month when all rallies were sold. The PMs could never seem to get any upside traction because rallies were ultimately viewed simply as opportunities to sell at a higher price. These market "sentiments" are very powerful and often difficult to change.

Fortunately, over the past few days, sentiment has shifted back in our favor. Do you recall the big dips of last Thursday, last Friday and Monday? If not, here's a gold chart that can serve as a reminder:
Note the stark contrast to the action from earlier this month. Instead of piling on and driving lower, market participants are now once again looking for support levels that can be bought. We've jokingly referred to these chart formations as FUBMs as if all selloffs were brought about by The Wicked Witch herself, only to have Turdites everywhere rebuff her and rally the victim back above the level at which the assault began.

You can see a pretty, little FUBM forming on today's silver chart. After a waterfall decline that climaxed with $1.03 being taken out in 3 minutes, silver has reversed and is now well off its lows. Earlier this month, such a savage beating would have resulted in additional selling but not today. This is very important. IF we have truly rounded the corner and prevailing sentiment is now back to "buying dips", we can feel even more confident in our purchases and we can also resume aggressive dip buying for a while. Let's watch and see if today's FUBM is taken to completion as this will be a clue.

Unfortunately, that's it for now. Today will be a long day so I may not have another thread for you until later this afternoon. Keep the faith! TF

p.s. And these are for Art Lomax or anyone trading the DAG.


374 comments:

  1. I warned you not to become overconfident, Mr. Ferguson!

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  2. Thank you for the update Turd.

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  3. Revised interest number for me is now 36.40.

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  4. Hi Turd, thanks for the daily update.

    I understand that there's not much downside with silver at $37, right? At least it looks like it bounces back strongly around that level.

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  5. lol @ "Blythe" TF is totally confident and I'm really writing for readers who might see the overnight action and panic.

    As laid out above buyers continue to buy.

    FOAGQ I picked up the local version of ZSL just before close yeseterday and have already sold it. Will attempt to scalp today but not looking to hold AGQ overnight.

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  6. True long positions wouldn't be afraid of short term consolidation, and if you are afraid right now, you aren't a true long. . .

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  7. GOOD LUCK WITH THE OPENING TURD!!! If it weren't 60 and rainy here, I'd go buy a fro-yo at every stand in town -- just in case yours is in my town. What? Need more coffee. Birthday dins was fuuuuuuuun!


    BTFD!

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  8. I'm likin' the sentiment Turd. And I still like my call of 39.70 by tomorrow pm edt.

    Here's an interesting post from Shawn/SGT Report. Someone made a $50mm bet on gold, but to pay off Au needs to hit all time highs by late summer.

    That ain't chump change. Wonder what this party knows is coming?

    http://sgtreport.com/2011/05/who-placed-this-massive-gold-bet/

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  9. that runup last night into the early morining was too far too fast. time to consolidate some and spring higher. BTFD! Thanks Turd!

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  10. um, is that a bear-flag on the 15m?

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  11. IN and out of CDE six times for a nice gain. Buy in the 25.60's and sell in the 25.90's. Repeat until it doesn't work.

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  12. @Happy

    Congrats on the ZSL win! I'm still in AGQ from $34 (silver) so really it's all academic for me until we get to 42... although I guess I could play with a little ZSL on pullbacks....hmmmm.

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  13. NGD holding up like a champ. Impressive. I would have thought we'd see it re-test 9.38 which seems to be a pivot number. Really, all of the gold miners are hanging in there under a percent loss. ABX is green.

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  14. Agree completely Turd. Sentiment is more likely that the dip will be bought. Question is how deep should that dip be before it is bought?

    I'm in fiat atm and still uncomfortable buying at $37.00 It's not really a dip imo taking us back to yesterday's price. I felt we have been overbought for a couple days.

    I would be more comfortable with a dip that takes us back to the mid $36's at the very least. Atlee's $35.70 from previous thread would be where I would consider (for a second) going all-in. :)

    No matter the entry I expect the dip will be bought and we will re-test $39 shortly. Sentiment has changed.

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  15. @ssk

    Good trading bro! Glad to hear you are on the come back trail.

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  16. This has the clearest signature of an EE Smashdown for those newbies who are still learning.

    First, the early hour in which it began starting in Hong Kong just before London opens then continued in earnest thereafter.

    Second, the unprecedented volumes at those early morning hours. Could this be the new exchange that just opened in China helping to engineer the market lower? I have no doubt that a deal has been struck to help China divest of her 2 trillion in useless dollar reserves.

    Third, we have the dollar dropping at the same time by a so far massive .56 %. What could be more counter- intuitive? Hope we get a whopping FUBM in revenge for this senseless manipulation. It would take a person in the deepest denial not to see this one. So incredibly blatant they have become.

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  17. Greece default would be worse than Lehman's says the below:

    If Greece defaults on its debt, the direct secondary effects on financial institutions could be much worse than what we saw after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

    The collapse of Lehman Brothers sent shockwaves through the global financial system—in part because it revealed that the United States government was willing to let a large, interconnected, complex financial company go bankrupt. Panic erupted, threatening the financial stability of other companies.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/43169768

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  18. @atlee

    I'm still keeping a GTC buy limit order in at $1511 (mini gold). Missed getting filled overnight by just $4.

    Do you think I should increase the buy limit a little or just hold out for $1511?

    (if you're getting tired of answering questing from me let me know).

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  19. @ Fred
    No problem. Stay where you are. Let the mkt come to you. No hurry. When you chase a mkt it usually turns out bad. Always another opportunity if you miss it. Don't think you will though. Patience.

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  20. @SSK - hope you survived the storms last night in one piece......do you have an NGD buy price above 9.38 that you are targeting?

    Cheers!

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  21. "Hi-ho Silver an away" riding Silvers roller coasters of Volatility.

    I have to say it is much more fun (and profitable at least for one person in the equation)than the daily doldrums. I think that while losses can be greater - they can also be made up in much shorter time frames.

    Thanks Turd, I am enjoying life buying with purpose and a plan rather than just on the emotional merry-go-round of buying the Tips and selling the dips.

    I am thankful for your TA - it still am learning to mix that with my gut ( I shouda listened to my gut and gone into gold on 4/27-4/28 ) - I did mix your advice and my gut and did buy on the dips of 5/5, 5/11, 5/17.

    I buy PM locally so I can just put an order in ( unless I want to stand for delivery from the local coin shop 2-8 weeks).

    Your TA helps me move with better confidence on what my gut is saying, I just wished you had been around in 2008, I got slaughtered.

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  22. How long can this onslaught continue? Silver is holding 37 like a champ, but i sense a bit of fatigue with the lady. Hang in there.

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  23. Added a buy order @ 178 for AGQ...we might get a quick dip down in the upper $35's today .

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  24. Simon Hobbs:

    "You don't earn a return on Gold, do you?"

    All hail Hobbsie

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  25. @Jimmy: confirm, classic Bear Flag on the M15.

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  26. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/euro-drops-following-juncker-statement-imf-may-not-release-next-greek-tranche

    Eur Plummets out of nowhere masking terrible USD, on words of IMF goon.

    The real loser is all of us, as the big boys are jostling currency trades careful not to let one side get more momentum than wanted.

    Go figure IMF fruitbags can shift the market. Why is a UN Created bank dictating the economic future of the world? Because the UN is garbage and the key towards....

    Two Words: Global Government

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  27. Another article to warm your gilded hearts:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-26/default-swaps-trading-on-u-s-debt-doubles-on-government-deficit-wrangling.html

    Silver setting on 5 Hour 36.89 support line, will it hold? Your milk money could depend upon it. . .

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  28. To add to the Bear Flag, subtract the height of the flag pole from the flag itself to determine the expected price breakdown.

    In this case the height from the high to the base of flag is approx $1.03

    Therefore from where price is right now, we're looking at price corrected range landing at $36.

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  29. @ ben.roberts13

    Although I completely agree with what you're saying, how can anyone really determine if this is simply a one day event or another attempt to lay everyone out like we saw earlier in the month? If the rule book has truly been tossed out, are we not flying blind to a certain degree?

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  30. Iran's largest lake turning to salt

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110525/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran_environmental_disaster

    The third largest saltwater lake on earth. Bone dry.

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  31. I go away for an hour and miss a load!

    I like Turds chart.. "FUBM complete WHEN it gets over $38.. "

    I'm not sitting that comfortably but sitting and holding... will BTFD if I can..

    Could have done better but thats life..

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  32. and extracted from Bill Downey today:

    SUPPORT IS THE 36.25-36.85 area ---------- and I have an order to pick up 500 oz on a mini contract at the 36.95 area today for my own account --- ---but caution is the phrase of the day. I'm keeping it light --- and keep in mind -- this is silver we're talking about and its volitile. The chart shows its possible to trade down to 35.50 at the lower dotted trend line. IF that develops --- I may add one there also. Be careful.

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  33. Mises,

    Second night this week we dined in our basement with the tornado sirens blaring. It's starting to feel like the nightly raids of the Luftwaffe!

    NGD is holding up well. Don't think we'll see 9.38. I have a sell order in at 9.97. Not for any chart reasons,but just because it's a bugaboo number that will surely prove resistance.


    Cheers Atlee. I don't know how these folks are making back their losses. I've re-gained 20%. THen again, I lost a lot!

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  34. FWIW CME is still reporting 32.1M oz of Reg. Silver - why the delay in update by the CME ??? Part of the game or par for the course?

    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/files/Silver_Stocks.xls

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  35. JoeKa, am i wrong in thinking that the silver spot is more of a slave under the POSX rather than chart formations? No disrespect, just trying to gauge my info at hand.

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  36. @JoeKa

    Makes me wonder what method was used in calculating those ranges, and 36.89 is a 1 hour S1 Fibonacci line. . .

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  37. @ SSK

    Just a thought from an observation. And I know this is heresy; Next time we get a good strong rally in the miners, keep your ngd gold miner and sell a silver miner like EXK against it. I am core position long both but might do the same in a short against the box move.

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  38. @Jimmy, Silver follows Pivot Calculations very well, but when 30 minute, 1 hour, 5 hour, and 1 day are invalidated, back the hell out.

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  39. I can ask Bill if you want...? :)

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  40. I can't decide if it's good that silver hasn't broken hard below 37 or if it's bad that it hasn't gotten back well above 37. Seems like it should break one way or the other.

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  41. ...and here we go. heads up!

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  42. 'mornin all, and thanks for the update, Turd.

    I was late getting moving this morning, saw the dip and fired a bullet before I had a chance to catch up on reading. Being out for yesterday's runup, I got a bit overeager... :/ Indicators were looking oversold, I saw that the POSX was catchin' a bid, and suprised PM's weren't doing worse than they were, so I bit...

    Kinda wish I had held off now that I've had a chance to catch up on some reading, but since I was out I don't mind averaging down from here...

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  43. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  44. @flaunt, its good and bad, normally when Pivot points are tested, normally the path reverses, so when we are going down and hit a pivot, it rebounds and vice versa. If there is a major price movement, several pivots can be broken in a straight line, but usually a reversal occurs that sends us back to one of the previous pivot lines.

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  45. @ JoeKA

    Good morning bro.
    The shorter term silver chart is hard to read right now but I think you are correct. When I start buying, it will be a series of bullets and different points. I am still liking that 36.40 area but I can see 35.70.

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  46. @SSK True words it depends what you lost. In my case 30% or so of my trading account.

    I'm getting it back on fast in-out for the most part. Sometimes creating a small AGQ/ZSL spread. Limited overnight holds.

    The coulda-shoulda-woulda has been knocking at the door because if I had just gone in heavy at 33.50 or even 34 and held I would be farther ahead. However I have a long portfolio for that and taking this all as learning.

    FYI I've noticed that your emotions can run high in some of your posts. If that's happening while making trading decisions then there's opportunity for you there. Saying this out of respect and wanting to see you get everything you can here.

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  47. wow on SRN news during the break of peter schiff show they blamed lack of gov't spending as one the reasons for slower GDP. Unbelievable!

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  48. Hoping for a mid afternoon reversal, otherwise this may end up a suckers rally in Silver. :(

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  49. Hey morning bro! Ok talking about Pivots. The FIBO pivot on the Daily sits at 37.35

    First support to hit now is 36.69, then 36.29.
    Finally we go to 35.63 on the final support extension of that FIBO pivot.

    Again, this is the Daily we're talking about.

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  50. Yoni - I think that the 37Moz addition yesterday was a fat finger data entry on the part of a certain website. I see no reason to think the CME reports are wrong.

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  51. JoeKa- was that a decent bounce off 36.69? I saw it didnt stick around the 70's for long..

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  52. btw, atlee... +1000 for your "where was trinity to tell you to get off the train" comment...

    Live by the sword, die by the sword, eh?

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  53. Atlee,

    I like that spread. Would you play that evenly or proportionally, i.e., 60-30 NGD to EXK?

    Uh-oh, gotta go buy more CDE . . .

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  54. Look at Clavin go, Market is about to tank..Hold on tight.

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  55. ...and if we throw FIBO out the window and go plain chart then the furthest support extension would lie at 35.02.

    At which point NCOT would have double shat his pants.

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  56. the stochastics on the 1 hr and 5 hr look like crap. Might just wait and see what happens rather than catch the knife here.

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  57. sold ITM puts on EXK today for an average entry point of $7.80/share if they expire in the money.

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  58. 11 Am London Fix Takedown... what else is new.

    Eur/Usd just bounced off some support from yesterday, after gapping down on gossip from UN bank the IMF. Coincidentally, it rallied yesterday on gossip that Chinese will be the white knight to European debt.

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  59. @uptofreedom: I'll see your +1000 points and raise you another 1k. :)

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  60. @JoeKa

    My best predictions have been on the 5 hour chart, and the funny thing is, sometimes Classic is a better predictor than FIBO. . . almost like tea leaf reading, but i think quant machines are using pivot calcs to set pricing.

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  61. @JoeKa, just read your Classic S3 at 35.02, and my guess is, if there is a surrender for today, there's the close, right there at 35.02.

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  62. @ James.
    nice trade!

    @ JoeKa

    ya know this is what was supposed to happen. We said 37/50 resistance, top of channel. Then pull back toward bottom of channel. So yesterday then let it go through a little to encourage retail then stampeded them last night. It is a game that you have to leave your emotions out of. I admit though going home short last night I was nervous. I am going to wait for the momentum indicators to turn before I buy back in.

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  63. House Republicans roll out jobs plan

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/house-republicans-roll-out-jobs-plan-2011-05-26?link=MW_story_latest_news

    ( Yawn ) Perosnal Note: Not a Red Team or Blue Team player, they both are sociopathic nut cases, and need to go.

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  64. Everything emotional in me wanted to buy buy buy yesterday. Glad I ignored my emotions this time, they seem to be fairly negatively correlated to the price :)

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  65. lol Joeka... I freakin hope not!

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  66. nice trading today......hehhehe.......get ta buy my slw back and pslv and exk......hehhehe

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  67. Kansas City Federal Reserve just released its mfg survey for may.

    Came in at ... 1.

    Following a 27 in march and 14 in april.

    prices received diffusion index 16

    prices paid diffusion index 61

    http://kansascityfed.org/publicat/research/indicatorsdata/mfg/pdf/2011May26mfg.pdf

    Enjoy

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  68. @school: I don't doubt that at all. ;)

    Though at 35.02, i'll be at the cusp of stop loss lying at 34.94

    Let's avoid that shall we? :P

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  69. Bought SLV Jul 40 calls for less than a dollar. When we get a dollar rebound in silver, I'll sell some higher calls against these.
    Still holding some cash over the holiday weekend just in case we get another holiday "gift" from Blythe.

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  70. Well just bought back in with some June 38's.

    Wasn't expecting my limit order of .85 to be filled until we hit mid $36's. This is no doubt what I get for going back to work for an hour and not paying attention closely...

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  71. sooo glad my wife is out tonight. Wont have to explain why im not in as good a mood as I was this morning....

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  72. You know bro atlee, emotions nearly did me in yesterday.

    Sometimes I have to learn NOT TO come to Turd's site ESPECIALLY when you decided not to enter when EVERYONE else had bought a position.

    I had been right at the bottom of Turd's bottom (no pun intended) but kept the trades open max 2 days before going flat. Then the Silver rapture happened and I was flat save a 1000 oz paper contract.

    And so I had to wait. Read. Jealous. Wait.
    Then boom boom boom.

    Anyway we're not outta the woods yet. Let's get out alive.

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  73. And I was so hoping to short at 39.45. . .patience. . . I dont feel safe shorting at 37. . . 37.05 is the 5 hour Pivot center, usually this means a test for R1 at 37.43

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  74. Turd et al, sorry for the thread hijack...

    Anyone have thoughts on the 'new' Sprott Silver Bullion Fund as an RRSP fund?

    I'm coming into some severance soon and wish to defer paying taxes. I've been loading up on phyzz for over a year now.

    Thanks in advance!

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  75. The idea that EURO TANKS should equal GOLD TANKS is about the most short sighted thing I can think of. I bought that dip.

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  76. Eric: that unfortunately is the freakish upside down world we live in.

    Sad but true.

    Only one way around it.
    Buy phyz.

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  77. Sorry if this has been covered but are there any regular times of day to watch out for takedowns etc?

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  78. Feels like blythe is squeezing my balls right now. And not in the good way. God damnit.

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  79. @freedom3555

    Whats the ticker for this 'new' fund. I researched Sprott, and I wouldn't touch it.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/215342-beware-the-new-sprott-silver-fund

    On the side, I hear they are having problems acquiring the physical silver. . might be bum scoop.

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  80. God's last name is not 'dammit' dude.

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  81. Hey guys - check out the trade that just went off - 100,000 July SLV 25 puts. Nuts! Normal daily volume for that far out of the money is a couple thousand.

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  82. @NCOT

    What is your definition of a "takedown", $1 in 3 minutes? On light or heavy volume?

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  83. Haven't researched the new fund so I can't make a specific comment aside from generally liking Sprott funds over comparables. I hold some PSLV along with their gold & pm fund in my wife's RRSP. If you are bullish in Ag you can't go wrong holding them.

    Again, I haven't looked at it but judging by what they did with PSLV, I wouldn't be surprised to see it trading with a %15+ premium over nav in short order.

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  84. @ Greg

    Zerohedge covering it here:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/easy-come-easy-go-slv-put-buyers-story-comes-close-wash

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  85. @ uptofreedom
    ya can say that again

    @ssk
    seems to me USUALLY exk moves more than NGD so if I was building a longerterm position in NGD, I would aadjust accordingly. Example: to see how good it works at first if I were long 1000 ngd, I would probably go 700 NGD. As I gained confidence and experieince, I would eventuall have a bigger short than long so I was actually making dough at it rather than just hedging. I would use the short side profit to build a bigger long term NGD. I will be playing with it myself and we can compare notes.

    Regarding Silver
    A lot of yesterdays retail buying power is still probably long from the higher levels. Unless some white knoght comes into lift the mkt, we probably will not see a big rally back until they puke out. Just thinking out loud.

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  86. crap I meant 700 exk short above.

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  87. joeKa

    true. lucky for me I'm pretty well covered on the physical side. :D

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  88. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcvjoWOwnn4

    Spoken 60 years ago yet strangely appropriate to current times.

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  89. @Scott.. HAHA... Makes me feel much better knowing he/wiped out their entire gain!...

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  90. Correction, PSLV we hold but outside of the RRSP.

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  91. @freedom3555 If you're thinking retirement funds it's *generally* accepted that gold is a store of value and silver is a more speculative play. I believe the Sprott fund is solid (eg backed by physical metal) so little concern there however be prepared to ignore the outrageous volatility if you choose silver.

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  92. Just to state the obvious: the CDE spread I outlined earlier ain't working any more.

    I am buying more though.

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  93. Sheesh - in the time I notice it, someone else noticed, digested and published. I'll go back to watching my screen now....

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  94. Eric, you're the smartest guy I know.
    Seriously.
    Canned bacon aside.

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  95. @JoeKa... how you holding up there mate? Staying awake?

    Another coffee?

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  96. Ok, got out of my that position at a small gain.
    Back to being flat.

    Hit me with the $36.25-$36.50! I'm ready!

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  97. oh man i neeed a coffee too.... just waiting for the drop u guys are talking about...

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  98. JoeKa

    You're kidding right? I read you, atlee, Pailin, and SSK in the mornings and I'm just in awe. I have zero skills as a day trader. Figured that out a long time ago. Everything I do has a much longer time horizon on it. That works for me.

    I guess maybe that's the smartest thing I've ever done. Figure out what works for me, and have the discipline to stay away from the rest.

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  99. @Tomo I hope either:

    a) There is no drop

    b) Its not as much as people are suggesting!

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  100. About to goto bed actually. It's 12am here.

    I'm actually considering going flat and putting a buy stop at breakthru of the pivot 37.35 and buy limit on the mid to low 36s.

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  101. "Figure out what works for me, and have the discipline to stay away from the rest."

    Precisely why you're the smartest guy I know.
    And i'm not patronizing you in any way by saying that.

    Have a great night fellas. See you on my AM.

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  102. @ NCOT

    Re: "Takedown Times"

    11:00 AM Est, London Fix: This one is like clockwork. Doesn't happen all the time, but when there is pressure being applied in the morning, pretty safe to assume there will be pressure around this time (as London Markets close and the "closing price" is recorded).

    http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=53&title=gold_fixings&show=2011&type=daily#latest

    ~1:25 Est

    Comex Close. If there is pressure from the day or if the algorithms want to price clip for the closing price/profit taking...

    This strategy has to do with the fact that the final number reported for the day occurs at these points of time. These times of the day usually show weakness if there is weakness in the market.

    There are a lot more... but these two are the essentials in my opinion, as they are the "official" numbers for the day.

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  103. See ya JoeKa... thanks again mate.

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  104. @freedom

    I see, its on the TSX, another Physical Gold play, I have one, this one in Switzerland: SGOL

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  105. @Scott, thanks for that.

    I've noticed the Comex close one, I'm in the UK, thats around 6:25pm here which is usually when I'm on my way home from work.

    But I've noticed its not always a dip..

    Didnt notice the 11am one, but just looked at the chart, thats about when it dropped to 36.69 today...

    So not complete takedowns, but kicked down...

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  106. A 500 oz mini? Where/how can it be traded AND can options be traded on them?

    I've seen the 1000 oz but never 500 oz.

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  107. @Turd

    Thanks for all your TA and opinions, just wondering whats your time frame for the FUBM to be confirmed.. IE when does it need to go over 38 to be classified?

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  108. @school

    my second post is missing where I provided a link to the prospectus. The fund was only released this month and was a glimmer of hope in trying to keep the taxman away by putting something into real phyzz vice FIAT.

    Thanks for your input.

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  109. Can I put away the bottle of Tums now, or is there another drop today? ..... :-O

    Really, though, I look at it as just the loss of a day, get out the whiteout and forget yesterday happened (well, I can try).

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  110. Eur/Usd turning upwards for now, aka dollar pressure and good for PM's. I think the bottom for today has been put in (as gold has been making higher highs and higher lows, with silver double bottoming). The stock market is still floating around its critical levels (for the s&p).

    So much paranoia on this board, relax. Look for some more pressure in an hour when comex closes? Would probably be warranted on a day like today. Hopefully we can get a globex rally and finish the week strong tomorrow.

    There are some key macro-events that will be playing out soon, that is where I think a lot of this paranoia is coming from.

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  111. New positions in CDE at cost average 25.52.

    Sold remaining RVM at 3.79. Too early, it seems.

    Looking at HMY as a nice set-up.

    Thought TRE would re-test 6's. Didn't happen.

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  112. Silver needs to grab that Bolinger band handle right now and start climbing. Come on!

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  113. Scott: thanks for the calming words.

    Kiwi! Is that really you ??! :P

    word ver1: hothodly (yeah i always thot i was hotbodly)

    word ver2: couggin (ok! not THAT hotbodly!)

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  114. @JoeKa

    Yep, it's me, the original Kiwi... been hiding under a bed since silver dived....

    I thought you were supposed to go to bed, young lady! (or young man, not sure). Don't you get caned for staying up too late?.... ;-)

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  115. broke the grip of 5 hour pivot at 37.05, will it crest 37.43?

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  116. SLV making a move here...Go team!

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  117. No...but my WIFE would cane me if I crept into bed late. :)

    Ouch mamma!

    Shill keep kermit on the board. We need a song at the end of this rainbow pal.

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  118. This stuff is wild... you can see the manipulation so clearly of the stock market with Tyler's posts. This seems to be happening everyday... a warning to those who think fundamentals will outplay what the powers want. This can't go on forever though, something will eventually snap.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/intraday-attempt-push-stocks-higher-present-attractive-spread-compression-opportunity

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  119. lol, its raining here in London and the suns' trying to come out....

    Where's the rainbow?!!!

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  120. I hear you M8ty...KERMIT FOR EVERYONE!... Love a nice FUBM on OPEX day. :)

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  121. Not much of a play, for me, today either way. I'll keep one eye open for waterfalls to buy into, but otherwise I'm stepping off to watch some Netflix and that kind of thing.

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  122. Is SLV forming a HNS pattern in 10 mins chart ? Looks like might test today bottom.

    Also wanted to know what is the signal for silver on Esignal - is SI N11

    thanks

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  123. Hi Joe, you're still awake :) Hard to miss the action, I know.

    Hopefully silver diverges from eur/usd index as it did in the last few days. Amazing run up it was.

    As for today, I am still at a small loss. Idiotic greed. Had to use the fibonacci numbers after the big dip. Good I am playing with small amounts, my leverage is high though.

    Hopefully we get above 38 again today.

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  124. Rainbow here.
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSFLZ-MzIhM

    It's not easy being green.
    Just look at my hair.

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  125. Amount of money made (so far) today = £118

    Amount of money not made today = £4000

    Amount of work done today = 0

    Being able to get away with this at work - Priceless..

    Not been my most productive day today!

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  126. @ school

    my guess is that 37.43 pivot is going to prove to be a sell point this time around. Yes I think it is a crest.

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  127. @RishiM

    Looks like you're correct...

    http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm

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  128. @bullwhip29 Its all in the patterns and the fact that they are creatures of habit, combined with the fundamentals they can't change. They can only make short term manipulations and suppression's of price. If you watch these markets long enough and close enough these patterns emerge and your confidence grows. That's why we are so lucky to have Turd, he is a master at pattern recognition, understanding of the fundamentals, and knows how these criminals operate.

    @Scott, the fundamentals will out play what the powers want because eventually their lies and crimes catch up with them. Yes, its taken a couple hundred years, but then the power to spread truth through the internet has already done its damage. The cat is out of the bag. Don't despair their day is coming and is within our sights. So, hang in there buddy we can clearly see light at the end of the tunnel, and keep up the good work. I always enjoy your posts which keep getting better and better.

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  129. @NCOT

    You must be with BT :-0)

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  130. The real action (to me) is at WTI crude.
    That fella has been caught in a back alley street fight at $100 bbl for the past couple hours.

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  131. U.S. at Risk of Default as Cost to Insure U.S. “Ponzi Scheme” Against Default Rises Sharply

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1306414800.php

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  132. Thanks JNG

    Guess I will wait and buy in dips rather than short here.

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  133. @atlee, school

    so are u saying its going down from there?

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  134. @JoeKa

    Cool! Will you have a red one for down days, or does your avatar's expression say it all?

    @NCOT

    "The internet: Allowing cube dwellers to kill time since 1985"

    @All

    I keep an eye on how the LinkedIn IPO is going, just for educational purposes... it actually went without a bid for about 15 minutes straight, I guess nobody really wants it as an investment.....oops, and there went the drop, straight down... I guess the lesson with IPOs is get in, sell, and get out...

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  135. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  136. Now new...

    @JoeKa been in and out of WTI all week. Got out this morning at 101.42, only cos I wanted to focus on not losing all my Silver positions!

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  137. tomo
    37.65 is my number. what happens there is important.

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  138. Aren't you meant to do that with all IPOs ?? LOL
    I thought only retirees and students bought IPOs man.

    ReplyDelete
  139. JOEKA:
    bill downeys gold trends seems like it would be rather common sense analysis. It seems you are a subscriber? how do you like his services? Wish he would have a free day trial or something. Thanks.

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  140. Looks to me like they are trying to pin the $38 strike in silver today. It might go higher in access but I think the floor trading won't let silver get above $38.

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  141. Concur with atlee. If we can brush pass that zone, we'll be back into 38s doubletime.

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  142. Wow, nice moves up. Hell of a reversal. Just sold half my CDE at 26.05. Just banked some serious fiat. Have another ask at 26.27.

    REvising my NGD. Taking the ask off at 9.97. Gotta look at the charts more for direction.

    Bought more HMY at 13.02 (can't believe how poorly this one is doing).

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  143. @ Nad123

    He does have a free trial for one months on a trial basis (According to Bag of Gold on Kitco Forums from a couple months ago). I will leave it up to you/others to find his email address so I didn't just create a lot of spam for him.

    I am a subscriber to him, and while it does not "make or break" anything I do, I really like reading his perspective and he has some very quality stuff on his website. In his daily emails, he has important numbers and events to look out for, and has a good grasp on the global gold/silver market.

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  144. @JoeKa

    I didn't actually buy any LinkedIn. I was tempted after the initial runup and then dip to 82, but knowing that the P/E is about 1500 put a damper on my enthusiasm.... I might have made a few bucks, but I could have lost a ton if it headed back down to the $45 pre-offer.... as it probably will.... so I'll just stay with my nice steady non-volatile silver stocks.... :-P

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  145. I like Downey bec he ain't flash. Keeps it simple. Combines FA and TA to give a balanced report, just like our Cap'n Turd.

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  146. Take a peek at the volume on the $1.03 price drop, last night by accident or design? As if I needed to ask.

    Silvers drop by accident or by design ?

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  147. After 2 days of plain upward sailing, i almost got the feeling yesterday that we were going to overshoot Turd's top long before mid-june. Bit of a dip today, but i'm way too much of a noob to be buying/selling day to day so i'm holding till we chug up to/near the 42 mark.

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  148. Scoot: Thanks. Ill look into that post of Kitco. I dont see anything on free trial on his site. I emailed him this morning. I am sure he wouldnt mind letting go of a day to a week for free. If I like it, which I think I will. Ill go ahead to subscribe.

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  149. I have used too much band width today on this blog so I am going to STFU for a little while. I am attending a charting webinar in a half hour so if I get some smarts, I will let ya know.

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  150. @Yoni: and that reminds me of ANOTHER song!
    Look here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VFG5fQHMro

    :)

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  151. Yeah, simple is the best way to go. Some people's analysis that you have to pay is a bunch of gibberish and very unclear.

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  152. Quite oblivious Yoni, they do not even hide it anymore. I say they, but I mean the Algos. :)

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  153. Treasurys stay higher after 7-year auction

    Indirect bidders buy 47.6% of 7-year sale

    Thursday’s biggest gaining and declining stocks


    Bidders offer $3.24 for each $1 in 7-yr debt sold

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  154. The Treasury Department sold $29 billion in 7-year notes

    Treasury sells 7-year notes at 2.429%

    Most demand in 3 years ha ha ha

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  155. @atlee, I think I speak for 90%+ of the other Turdites when I say your commentary would never be considered spam. If anything, you are compact and straight to the point -- and uncannily correct in the majority of the cases. I would certainly be better off listening more to you, so trying hard to do that.

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  156. 10 min chart looking bearish at the moment...looks like a retest of $36.70 is in order.....

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  157. Interesting night and day. Flat during last night's runup, woke up to the beatdown, in and out between 37 and 37.35 in silver and 100.80 and 101.20 in WTI, then away from the screen.

    Another corn k offer hit, but still have 75% of position. Dr. C making a respectable comeback.

    Gold looking a bit tipsy, but no idea why with world's largest currencies looking so "strong"...

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  158. Btw...where is Trinity B? If anything we should have heard from trinster by now right?

    She is welcome here isn't she? Thought she won some new fans...

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  159. JoeKa
    Way past your bedtime, you little green haired dude! The Wife is getting out the cane right now...

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  160. Concerning the Trinity no call to get out.
    I do not believe Trinity put a term on the call.
    Short term traders probably took it to be short term.
    Mid-term traders probably saw a mid-term call and long term a long call.
    So far I believe Trinity has not posted a "get out" call, so it does not look like it was short term at least.

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  161. Yikes! She just walked into the room!!
    byeeeee

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  162. So far todays action makes me much more comfortable on my SLV calls. We were going straight up the last couple of days, so this smackdown was not unexpected. If silver can finish the day strong (barely down or even green) I'll be very pleased.

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  163. Dr. Copper is showing a nice spike upward.

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  164. In case anyone wants to follow Trinity, she sometimes (generally?) haunts Screwtape files:

    http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2011/05/slv-database-2.html?showComment=1306425893637#c2817945626619913167

    It would appear she is still in a snit about Turd not being willing to change the "d-word" in his long-ago post.

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  165. She also included a (yet again) cryptic reference by linking this article:
    http://www.wired.com/autopia/2010/10/how-the-allies-used-math-against-german-tanks/

    Serial numbers of silver bars (whether in ETF vaults, COMEX or elsewhere)?

    Nothing comes to mind, beyond Project Mayhem's expose on the discrepancies in SLV inventories...

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  166. Oh wow I hope the damn thing doesn't have a covert built-in Metal detector :-)

    I wish this story was from The Onion. It's not.

    http://mediamonarchy.blogspot.com/2011/05/coming-soon-automotive-black-boxes-for.html

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  167. Treasury Bonds doing great?!?

    Getting itchy to short 10-year again, but think better to refrain until after holiday and June K rollover.

    Buying some WTI at 100.50 - 60.

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  168. @ freedom

    Have you considered CEF which is ~50/50 Au/Ag? It's definately as safe as Sprott and been around for decades longer. Currently it is trading at an unnatural premium (some days discount) to NAV. A return to a more normal 8% premium would give you maybe an 11% return on top of gold and silver.

    Do your own due dilligance.

    Disclosure:

    Long CEF

    Hux

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  169. Some themes that I tend to discuss regularly around here are negative real interest rates, the Dow-Gold Ratio, and long term investing. John Hathaway has all three wrapped up in a neat little package in this excellent blog post at KWN.

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/26_John_Hathaway_-_Gold_%26_US_Today_vs_1980_Mania.html

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  170. Latest from Jim Willie. A must read.

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1306353600.php

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  171. Head and shoulder on the 15m?

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  172. Just to remind us of the larger perspective, here's an excerpt from Ian Gordon interview on MineWeb.com

    "If paper money, which is credit money, collapses, then, essentially, credit collapses and the economy grinds to a halt. Quite a scary scenario could evolve from a collapse in the paper-money system. We almost had a major credit failure in 2008. What happens if credit does that again? Everything stops-trucking stops, the movement of goods stops and it becomes a very difficult time for everyone. I think people have to prepare for the worst."

    He foresees a return to a 'gold standard' happening in around 2014.

    Read the entire interview here: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72068?oid=127849&sn=Detail&pid=110649

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  173. ...and in a related story: UN notes possibility of USD collapse

    http://www.globalnews.ca/world/dollar+could+collapse/4839011/story.html

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  174. Great entertainment over at screwtapefiles.blogspot.com. Hammy is all jacked off because he didn't trade his normal because he was waiting for the Trinity call. Ha! Trinity says he is not running day trading 101. Not posting here until the schoolyard verbiage is removed from the post.

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  175. Amazing how the Eur/Usd plays out almost exactly the same formation twice in a row over the past two hours.

    Free market, hahahahahahaha.

    http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/live-charts/

    I also noticed this in gold yesterday as well, but it was probably a reflection of a marker (such as the eur/usd) doing the same thing.

    Silly algorithms, obvious for anyone with two eyes and an open mind.

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  176. @CD

    Thanks for the link where Trinity Blue posts now.

    Hux

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  177. @ R man J

    That is an excellent article. Thanks for the link. He sums up and ties everything in extremely well. Every line seemed quotable as I read.

    It's all there and if it doesn't help reinforce one's faith that we are on the right course in being bullish PMs, then nothing will. If one ever has doubts during wild price swings, especially downward, just bring up that article and read it again. Truly an excellent summary of where we are why the Great Keynesian Experiment is at hand.

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  178. I am back, what happened ?

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  179. @eric#!

    I've always respected Hathaway greatly. I don't take you for a mutual fund type of guy (I know I'm not) but do you own any Toqueville Gold (sp?)


    Best,

    Huxley

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  180. @Petr..well, 35 didnt happen.. so far! Thank the lord!

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  181. Trying to balance my holdings of Phys/FRNs...
    I lucked out that I had spent most of my budget prior to the Run-up, and following SSM... (sunday silver massacre.
    That was luck, not skill =/
    So now here i sit, the fool, "stacking" FRNs.
    Knew I should have pulld the trigger on a couple oz. of Yellow when its was down around 14 and change last week! oh well.
    so if we see the summer slump on PM prices I hope to follow through w/ some purchases.
    Guess the FRN's are burning a hole in my pocket... Like i mentioned to DR. J, or Dr. D on here can't remember which, anyway , I said buying physical is GREAT 'cause you get the thrill of "buying' as a consumer, but then your purchase ends up being a SAVINGS of wealth!
    Win Win!
    For now I have to stay a low pro... only do what i can. would love to try some trading but that would be WAY over my head at this point.
    I am greatfull for what I have and what I have learned so far.
    Much of that is directly linked to You folks Here, and Turd.
    thank you.

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  182. @CD
    Thanks man I really appreciate the compliment but am probably unworthy.

    Anyway, I have covered my shorts and am ready to do a little buying as close to 37 as I can.

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  183. @Timer

    Do you acutally use the F. A. R software which costs like $2400 for real time charts? That price seems .... unbelievable to me.


    Hux

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  184. @dani

    They called her a douche bag.


    Hux

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  185. Purely for non confrontational purposes. But I feel Trinity has his or hers head stuck so far up his or hers arse he or she can't breath. He or She comes across as being better than the rest of us. Who needs it.

    JMHO

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  186. Can anyone tell me which chart website I can use to plot the price of silver and AGQ at the same time.

    Thanks

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  187. Miners just brought me profitable for the day (half an hour to go.)

    Hux

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  188. stocks in green - check

    EUR ok

    crude, silver, gold red

    isnt it weird? so it is reaction after option expiration yesterday or wtf?

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  189. anybody stays long 'overnight'?

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  190. @ Shill

    I could not agree with you more. Those who want to believe in Santa Claus can go to screwtape blog and read her/it/him.

    Even if it were true, I don't want insider info. Integrity is is more valuable to me than gold and silver. And if TB were real, it obviously has no integrity.

    By the way the B in Trinity B stands for Bacillus. Hope you read this Trinster
    big hugs.

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  191. I put a limit order on EKX to sell it ALL at $10.00 and hope to buy it back down the road. If it doesn't sell, well, that's fine too.

    Hux

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  192. @atlee

    We know you agree.

    It's clear.

    I won't call you a cocksucker, even if it for purely non-confrontational purposes.


    Hux

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