Friday, May 6, 2011

Cinqo de Bottomo, Part II

OK, you can begin to see now how this is going to work. The final capitulation appears to have come this morning before the BLSBS report. We have since rallied over $3 in silver and are about to turn positive, taking back all of the losses since noon yesterday.
I have a last in July silver of $36.13. Above $37, the new shorts will begin to get squeezed and older (24 hours+) shorts will begin to sense that the fun is over and lock in some profits, thereby adding to the buying pressure. If we've indeed found a bottom, silver may, by Monday, trade back UP near $38-40.

In a traditional bottom, silver would then trade back DOWN toward $35 later next week. At that point we'd have the makings of a solid double bottom. THAT WILL OUR  ENTRY POINT.

If you're not currently long, I would advise you against buying this rally. With a potential short-term upside of $3 vs a downside of $2, its just not a tradable proposition. IF, however, the next week or so plays our as I've described above, the risk:reward will swing dramatically in our favor and we can act decisively then.

More later. TF


2:10 EDT UPDATE:
If you are encouraged by today's action, I invite you to go back and re-read this post from Wednesday. Other than hoping for higher bottoms for silver and the HUI, the timing of it all and the buying points for the individual miners looks pretty good.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/return-of-nostradumbass.html

Silver failed to keep rolling today but it didn't get any worse, either, and, believe me, that is significant.
We have to start somewhere.
Hang in there. Relax and enjoy your Friday afternoon. TF

407 comments:

  1. From the Daily Bell: Silver’s Bubble Has Burst?

    http://www.thedailybell.com/2231/Silvers-Bubble-Has-Burst.html

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  2. ALL ABOARD THE SILVER TRAIN ONCE MORE.

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  3. Here's hoping.

    BTW, Turd, you are now my first stop when I want to know what's up. Rock on, cowboy.

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  4. On the other had TF, if you're looking to buy physical, you better go today.
    Tomorrow will be a Saturday and inventory will be gone.

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  5. @Turd
    Ding-ding! Your analysis aligns with mine. Let's hope we're not both outta whack.

    @sp
    Understand that while I'm US-based, I'll be keeping some odd sleep hours though too.
    I see some play opportunities coming :)

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  6. Everybody remember that anonymous 1 million dollar SLV deal from last month? Check ZeroHedge now:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/88-slv-shares-outstanding-trade-yesterday-silver-put-buyer-generates-682942295027173-annuall

    Ridiculous!

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  7. Thanks for some great advice.

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  8. Long and Strong TF. Loaded up on EXK and GPL and looking very nice. I am buying a cushion of ZSL before the close and going long into the weekend.

    Not trading over to the dark side folks by buying ZSL, I am just hedging my mining position as I am not going to get caught with my pecker hanging out again.

    Cheers TF

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  9. Per our BEST FRIEND Trader Dan, "Bulls make money; Bears make money but Pigs get slaughtered."

    LOL

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  10. Really nothing has changed. We had a gigantic corrupt coordinated take down of the market by extremely desperate players in deep trouble and with the aid and blessing of regulators.

    In others a great big lump of corruption came and sat on the market.

    But in my view nothing has changed. There was always a correction coming (but not what we just saw) and traders could have made a nice penny on it if they were early buyers of silver.

    But going long again is the business now. The US economy is well truly stuffed, there is no way out of their deficit debt problem - the cartel and Fed etc will play lots of games, but printing and stimulating will be the ultimate tool they will turn to....until inflation gets so far out of control they have to stop, or the collapse the currency entirely. Silver and Gold are essential insurance.

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  11. some relief for us holding AGQ!

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  12. Thanks Turd, glad i bought Ag and not a miner.

    SSK: GPRXF and SQIFF are the OTC tickers.

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  13. Now if we could just use it to start buying gasoline!

    http://theeveningchronicle.blogspot.com/2011/05/my-silver-dreams-of-bread-and-circuses.html

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  14. Thanks for everything you do TF!! Is $33.05 going to be the low or do you think we will cross back over it early next week when CME raises margins again?

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  15. anyone here know how to extract silver from xrays or has a good contact that does? i know of several services online but am interested in a personal contact. i have access to thousands of these

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  16. lets make one thing clear that we are against the Criminal reserve banking system and we MUST demand from our own states to provide a state chartered bank available only to the residents of the state (checking account) and 5% interest saving to nonresident and residents of the state. I for one am not an enemy of the Criminal reserve but I understand how to compete and beat them in their own game. End the Fractional Reserve Banking System.

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  17. Thank you Turd, much obliged sir!

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  18. damn exk exploded, first time i ever bot it was yesterday. technically looks good as a trade

    i haven't had time to do any due diligence on the fundamentals of this one but i see that it moves like a freight train

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  19. 2 weeks ago the euphoria, yesterday the total despair, now since a few hours ago again the euphoria. People, you are letting the emotions get the better of you at the worst points of time. Please do not buy in after silver has risen 3$ in a few hours... unless you want your nose bloodied again.

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  20. Crude is starting to pick up speed.

    Interesting point from ZH about the jobs report:

    244K

    but 175K was an "adjustment" for birth/death ratio -- wtf?? very convenient.

    and 62K was LITERALLY jobs flipping burgers at McD's.

    How far we have fallen that this is taken as good news.

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  21. Btw, final OI for yesterday is out - gained 4k contracts to 134k. Does not make sense to me unless we have indeed reversed course and this was the bottom. But it isn't.

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  22. Markus, did you check out the picks I gave you? Who do you like?

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  23. @Save_America1st

    That's just CRAZY! Wow.

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  24. Fantastic interview here folks

    http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/05/best-description-of-mortgage-mess-ever.html

    * Note non PM related but it is all eCONomically related as far as I am concerned. Hope Turd does not mind a few off topic posts just to keep things interesting. Besides we were all Coned in the housing bubble anyway..Well not most of us ( Wink )

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  25. if i am planning to trade gold for silver, when will be my entry point? also at next weeks proposed $35 silver bottom ?

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  26. Au is coiling like it's about to spring up again.
    The turnaround will be just as breath-taking as it was on the way down albeit not as quick.

    The SLV put story on ZH had me drooling abit.
    I can't be alone in imagining how that person felt the past 10 days.
    Hopefully they didn't succumb to greed and sold off this a.m. and went the other way.
    Can you imagine? I can.

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  27. Turd,
    I was wondering if you listenend to Ben Davies'last interview on king world news.
    He is saying we will go sideways for a few months then turn up big. Just wondering what your thoughs are.

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  28. An expensive learning experience. TF called it...a little late on the dates and the extent of the takedown but close enough for government work. Easy to say in hindsight but we should have seen this coming over a long weekend with most of the big exchanges closed extra days. We'll have to pay more attention to the Hong Kong and London calendars after this. FWIW, silver went down about 30% in the fall of 2008 and I think this one came in at 28% or so. I'm not saying it's over, I'm lousy at predicting the market...just sayin.

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  29. When does the COT and Bank Participation report come out???

    Seems the MOST important news of the day willbe if the big commercials continue to reduce their short position.

    I expect it will show a big number down. If so, that's very good news for this being a bottom.

    @Markus, sometimes we have to beleive numbers.

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  30. Very little know fact in the US. Sorry the article is in Spanish, but it says that Mexican central bank has quietly bought very recently 100 tons of gold in an attempt to diversify reserves
    http://w2.df.cl/mexico-compro-100-toneladas-de-oro-para-diversificar-reservas/prontus_df/2011-05-04/210449.html

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  31. Turd, confirmed my thinking. I'm tempted to add to my physical this week, but I think I'll wait for next week and see what that brings....

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  32. DPH, sounds most excellent to me. But is that the morning Fatty talkin'?

    :-0)

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  33. Respect TPTB, I am glad that things have finally stopped going off the cliff and am glad to see my long-term positions no longer bleeding all over my screen, but I am also hesitant on adding at this time and am keeping my hedges in place. The extremely bullish moves in April are not the norm. A steady rise is something that will make longs profit without exposing us to the titanic downside risk we just went through.

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  34. This week has been humbling. I was completely outsmarted by the Insane Fed Posse. I guess most of us were.

    I felt like a failure this morning. My xag position was blood-red. But I rolled up my sleeves, traded xag hard pre-open, made back my losses and more.

    Now I'm in the black, no position, looking for an entry.

    We are up against ruthless and corrupt Big shorts, the CFTC, the Fed, the White House, Wall Street, and the MSM.

    But we have a tremendous team and team leader here. If you're hurting, don't lose heart, folks. Our fortunes can change very quickly. The army of ants will win this fight.

    GLTA.

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  35. DOH! I wish this was posted 2 hours earlier, I locked in a physical order at $35.09 this morning

    :(

    Oh well my downside is limited to about $500 if we drop to $30 and I don't see that happening (unless we *are* in a bull trap and then I'm completely f'ed either way!)


    SOMEONE PLEASE use your technical analysis wizardry to tell me we are not in a bull trap!

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  36. I bought CEF this AM at the open. I think $36 is going to prove to be a magnet below, it's the number that the losses to JPM were supposed to go exponential above. Once we cleared 38 silver went on a tear which looked like a squeeze to me. I think there may be something to the $36 number for JPM and since we glided down just above it yesterday on the floor, I think it's going to be the magnet for today.

    If silver can't break above it, then we are headed down to a lower stronger bounce point in order to take another shot at $36.

    There is something about $36, conspiracy stories notwithstanding.

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  37. Phazers locked on target. Standing by.

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  38. Sumo, my thought too.

    Loved it when the hamster called us the biggest bunch of hard-asses he ever met.

    Have you all any idea of how this board is monitored? It's a major sentiment indicator. To friends and enemies alike.

    They know they're up against it when they check in on us. So I hate to let 'em down.

    Onward to Victory.

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  39. No fatties lately...G'rrr.
    Hens teeth should say it all.

    Eric #1's Lloyd Bridges comment had me laughing and inserting "ganj" in that funny Airplane scene.

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  40. Leonard OK...just a shot...This week is an outsized down week. Going back, down weeks > 25% have been followed by buying first few days of following week with a continuation of selling to test the bottom later. The rule of alternation applies perhaps less to manipulated POS like PMs but nonetheless let's go with that thesis. WE tanked hard at the beginning of this week so we might get some tepid buying days early next week unless those in control are truly unimaginative. Can't imagine doing the same f'ing thing as we did last week Mon. On the chart, MAs are beginning to turn up on the 60' SLV which could provide support for further uside hopefully to yest high and (if SLV was not an ETF) to fill the gap before heading back down (but it is an ETF so gaps are less of a draw since the underlying 24 hrs)

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  41. Everyone here takes the USD index very seriously.
    Perhaps they should. But as a UK citizen, with
    gas (petrol) at the equivalent of up to $9 per
    gallon , and similar prices in Europe, the problem I think is more inflation rated. The high rates of inflation throughout the world is a
    much greater PM driver than individual currency fluctuation, I reckon. Right now, we see PM'S
    rally, and the USD rally simultaneously. If the dollar really gets strong, Europeans will buy more PM'S, Americans a bit less, but they will still be buying, cos of inflation.

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  42. Sumo said, "We are up against ruthless and corrupt Big shorts, the CFTC, the Fed, the White House, Wall Street, and the MSM."

    Yeah, but they're up against a $14T+ debt, a dying currency and politicians who don't give a crap.

    I like our chances. :-)

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  43. First post, glad I found this blog:

    CEF discount has been reduced quite a bit today.

    Focusing on miners this time around for at least 2 reasons--I think this time they outperform the underlying (I hope) and second, I am just not sure about SLV and GLD even as a trade. I work too hard for my money than to be totally blind to a possibility. Still playing there but not as much.

    And I am not so sure the silver advantage over gold will not resume. Nothing solid, just a feeling.

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  44. Reuters headline - Greece may leave EU and restrucutre, euro getting hammered, dollar strenghtening

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  45. someone is mashing the button.. :(

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  46. Good point Halfwit! All my friends are stacking due to the inflation. This site realy helps to pick out the BTFD.

    Gr. from Holland

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  47. Harald

    I'm very much with you on the lessons learned. I was too complacent when we had that post-FOMC rally.

    I wish I could find the link, but I have seen some pretty convincing TA that says silver corrects every time it gets 30-45% above 200DMA. That was a big red flag, but I was convinced the buying pressure was there to take it a little higher. It probably would have, too, but EE saw the opportunity to tip the scales and trigger the correction that was already overdue.

    You're right, we have to learn to put ourselves in our opponent's shoes and see what they see.

    Rule#8: Take some profits off the table on the way up. (I didn't follow it, but I won't make that mistake again.)

    I am also going to be very leery of staying long over ANY weekend, at least when things are running hot like they were.

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  48. Just picked up 200 oz of Engelhard rounds called "The American Prospector" 1985 (sealed). 38 an oz and boy do I like this coin. Thanks Blythe. He still has 450 oz left.

    Holly Securities
    609-522-2496

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  49. Non-manipulated palladium's 2 year, 2 leg parabolic rise keeps suggesting to me what Ag might look like without the corrupt, exogenous forces distorting its chart, and what the timing of an uptrend resumption might be.

    PALL has only fallen 15% in the recent decline, versus the 26% drop it took in April-May 2010. The two similar declines took 4 weeks, then 5 weeks to a buyable double bottom, and the June 2010 PALL uptrend started 3 weeks after the double bottom:

    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=PA&p=w1

    PALL has already completed a double bottom, suggesting that above 700 a 3rd leg up could be starting now taking perhaps 3 weeks to break resistance at 800.

    Just trying to find a "clean" long-term chart that might indicate true PM demand undistorted by federal-bankster corruption as is Ag's chart.

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  50. To winker. just one mans opinion.

    A large component of luck, dont like parabolas, but had no idea it was going to be so fast and so violent. I sold the stock part of my pms at decent numbers, the physical is untouchable .

    These stocks act very strange. Would i buy back today, not sure, probably see how good 33 is.

    The lesson to me, and it rocked me, and others on this board of all this is that these regulators and policy makers are menacingly dangerous. It seems clear they were desperate, and five back to back margin hikes, this is simply criminal.

    Why do i think they are so desperate? They must MUST MUST maintain some semblance of integrity in the fiat currency.Otherwise its game over, and silver through 50 would have gone berserk.

    I also think we were/ are dealing with an informal undeclared corner in the physical silver market, that commenced with the 580 million PSLV issue in November. THis put the blood in the water since it tangibly exposed the fractional reserve silver racket. It took 3 months to deliver the bars to PSLV and they were NEW, fresh from the refinery, so where were the Comex inventories. Nonexistent evidently, at least in that kind of size.

    We all owe that witless Jeffrey Christian a wet kiss for his slip of the tongue (saying they sold up to 100 ounces of paper silver for every ounce of actual phys) at the CFTC hearing a year ago March where the genesis of this incipient "corner" got some very well heeled people thinking that the Comex could be taken on. And so they were.

    This caused no end of trouble, it caused this incredible policy response of the last few days.

    But to go to such extraordinary lengths, it suggests to me that the American , not to mention TROW banking systems, are toast, i find it somewhat concerning, since it suggests to me there is NOTHING they would not do.

    Do I know there was a corner attempt on silver . Not for sure. It looks like it was and very nearly succeeeded. . Will they try again? To me its sufficiently serious i might get a vest, and look both ways twice to cross the street.

    I have had a big education the last few weeks, does silver break, say 30 to 32, who knows , I doubt it. This is a big game we are in here, with national security implications. The United States looks like its fighting for its very life.

    Was all this coordinated with Trichet relenting, taking out Bin laden, Bernanke, Timmay, the whole international cast of crooks, including that rattesnake Chilton appearing on CNBC this am spouting his slick bullshit. This is a big game. Menacing.

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  51. TURD,

    why do you believe silver will rally in june... I find it interesting that you believe this and that martin armstrong has also stated that this may happen...

    dont people usually sell in may and go diddle themselves for the summer??

    cheers and good work !

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  52. "ewc58 said...
    Markus, did you check out the picks I gave you? Who do you like?"

    Yeah, thanks buddy, that was great. I haven't checked them yet but saved yours and Eric's in a .txt file so that I can look them up when I plan to buy miners next. Wanted to thank you both on the original thread, but got to sleep and in the meantime there were about 3, 4 new threads, soo...

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  53. I would think that if Greece does leave the Euro Union that the U$D might see a temporary spike.
    But it would seem that a weak member leaving would make the Euro even stronger going forward.

    Todays Euro weakness via Greece will be tomorrows Euro strength after Greece does finally leave and the positive Euro aspects are talked about after.
    What a rollercoaster ride.

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  54. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/breaking-greece-threatens-leave-eurozone-reintroduce-own-currency

    Well, Turd DID say the Euro-crisis would be trotted out -- we have a perfect storm at this point...

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  55. Wow, it's true what they say. When it's officially denied, you know it's true:

    "EUROGROUP CHAIRMAN JUNCKER "TOTALLY DENIES" MEETING TO BE HELD TODAY TO DISCUSS GREECE"

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  56. Watcher

    In the days before Silver Eagles took over the market, The Engelhard Prospector was the #1 favorite coin out there. Still commands respect and good prices to this day. Congratulations.

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  57. Luvpms: silver will rally in June ahead of first delvery for the July contract. Regardless of this weeks action, the comex still only has 32mm ounces of silver.

    The action into the close and on the Globex today will be your "tell" for early next week. If down, you know that The Cartel was warned their friends that more margin hikes are coming, similar to last Friday's action.
    If flat to up, Monday and Tuesday should be rally days.

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  58. RAWWRRRRRRRRRRRRR...... BEN SMASH!!!!!!!!!!

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  59. DPH

    Here's one that's a little better. It runs a few seconds longer and shows Lloyd Bridges jumping out the window, which is pretty much what I did yesterday! LOL

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmW-ScmGRMA&feature=related

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  60. DPH

    THis one reminds me of myself from yesterday too. Airplane! "Drinking Problem"

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pl4plPGRG8o&feature=related

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  61. 34.94...we've slipped below 35 again.

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  62. DOH, I always but at the wrong time. Doh! I could have had 6 more ounces delivered!

    But at least I buy the right stuff :)

    It's close enough to the bottom for me.

    But I just CANNOT get that stupid bubble chart out of my brain and it's driving me nuts.

    TURD can you put my mind at ease? What is the probability this is a short lived bull trap before we plummet to $20-24 ?

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  63. Have you ever seen a piece of shit fly? It currently is!!

    Anyway, metals down, the dollar on a short term ralley.. everything perfectly lining up for us to be sure this is the last snapback before SHTF.. and with SHTF I mean POSX at least down to 60, and silver at least to 70$ within months.

    Thanks EE for removing the last bit of uncertainty from our trading decisions.

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  64. LOL @ Ben Bernanke

    How's the weather up there in your Ivory Tower?

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  65. Looool @ Ben. Well done sir :)

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  66. Pablo

    Have we come down off the ledge yet? I'm feeling better, how about you?

    Like I said, just hold on tight to those Sovereigns like grim death. We'll be alright.

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  67. I said yesterday if stocks rallied on the employment report it would be a great chance to get out of silver, I was dead right and feel more strongly than ever now.

    Silver is a leveraged bet on a strong US economy and weak USD.

    Greece is about to default, could happen this weekend?

    if so the dollar soars, stocks tank and silver collapses.

    Too bad you won't listen but hey, I did my part.

    Good luck.

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  68. Eric,
    I was made to sleep on the sofa last night, but I'm feeling better today. We're not out of the woods yet. If we don't drop below $35 I'll probably be allowed back into the bedroom sometime early next week.

    In the meantime my Henry "Heck-of-a-job, Hank!" Paulson US Mint Medal makes a great drink coaster and late night TV sucks.

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  69. Greece SHOULD withdraw from the EuroZone. EVERYBODY should withdraw from the EuroZone. That's my take.

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  70. Thanks Eric. I appreciate that. I didn't know about this coin till today.

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  71. Vamoose - that was a pretty good summation of what we're up against. They can always play the "national security" card to get away with blatant manipulation, outright theft and murder.

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  72. It's good silver is consolidating.

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  73. THANKS TURD .....does anyone know of an RSI alarm that goes off when the RSI goes below 30 ? i missed it again on the dip

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  74. Today marks the one-year anniversary of the "Flash Crash." Chilton chalked it up to a little buying error then algo selling. Idiot.

    And other news:

    Guy walks in to a bar; the bartender says "what'll you have?"

    "I'll have a Bin Laden, please"

    "Bin Laden??? What's that??"

    "Two shots and a splash of water"

    (note: not bad, even if OBL really died in 2001)

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  75. GREECE

    THis has the ring of truth to it, a weekend, Recall that Trichet shocked the EU, by unexpectedly NOT signalling that rate rise early this week.

    Would he be in a position to know. Sure he would.

    And if A Euro crisis were about to erupt then the other thing you do, is knife 100 dollars off of Gold and smash Silver.

    And if Greece goes thats it for the whole Eurozone. Rubble.

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  76. Pablo

    Not riding the couch, but I understand the situation. Feels right to repost my comment about Mrs. Eric#1 that I put up yesterday. I know I'm one lucky SOB.


    Eric#1 said...
    I emailed Mrs. Eric#1 at work and told her about the carnage. Her only response was:

    "We are in it for the long haul, so don't sweat the day to days."

    Is she awesome or what? She really IS #1!! I think I'll keep her. :D
    May 5, 2011 4:38 PM

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  77. "Silver is a leveraged bet on a strong US economy and weak USD. "

    Ah, so that's why the biggest silver refining country is China, and the biggest silver retail market in the world is in Mumbai India.

    All those Indians and Chinese, and western bullion and coin buyers, making leveraged bets on a strong US economy and weak USD? Wow, I didn't know that.

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  78. @ humahuaca

    who is dumb enough to believe that we are in recovery? Am I to believe that the hedge fund managers really believe this?

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  79. I remember in the fall of '08, she would say "Your wife still loves you, your dog still loves you, even if you are an idiot...."

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  80. @ Vamoose
    "And if A Euro crisis were about to erupt then the other thing you do, is knife 100 dollars off of Gold and smash Silver."

    Can you explain the why in regards to knifing gold and silver?

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  81. I heard if you play a country song backwards, you get your wife back, your truck motor runs, your dog comes home....

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  82. Aaaand, I'm still glad I'm out with my main holding. Not so much because of the price movement in silver, but because being all in with AGQ just isn't/wasn't conducive to my happiness.

    Right now I'm in just enough to enjoy whatever profits are possible, but not enough that it could hurt in case we blow another fuse and get bombed downwards again. If everything stays pretty, I'll join the big run up next week in the re-test. Until then, I really couldn't be happier with some toes in and the other leg out. I should've done something about my money management earlier really, but I never got the point of it as long as I was heading upwards.

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  83. Turd,
    You are good. And The news about Greece is indeed a ruse.

    Here's why; Greece is strategically important to the western world. Go and check to see why they have been invaded each and every major war, including WWI, WWII, etc. They happen to be in a geographic location by which we measure even our own location. Middle east; middle east of where? The West: West of where? The far East; far east of where? They got into the Eurozone because they are geographically important. Its long been said that in order to rule the world, one must first go through Greece. They will not get out now, not with all the crap going on next to them, in MENA. Don't fight the tape, but when the chance comes, BTFD!!!

    Phantom

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  84. Tough day in the trading pit.

    Can't seem to catch it either way. Tried to short oil with SCO but missed my bid. It's like we all knew: every rally will be sold. Most likely scenario is not a v-shaped recovery. Could be a long consolidation.

    SLV is looking like it's going red on us. Again.

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  85. Anybody want to talk me out of taking my Crown Royal bag to the coin shop and filling it up?
    I'm prepared for a dip on Monday. If it dips again then I'll have dry powder to buy again.
    Still substantially above my core holding cost, but this looks pretty good to me. Thanks

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  86. TF,

    On the charts I watch it looks like spot hit a low of around $33.05. A double bottom like you descibe would definitely make me much more confident about adding more physical. I just feel that based upon the fundementals you have already laid out for us that the second test down would probably not reach as far as the first but come in around $34.00 - $34.25. This is not a prediction just a hunch. When those levels are reached and then trade up I am off to exchange some fiat for real value. Have a great weekend everyone and good trading to all of you.

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  87. btw could greece leaving the euro mean the end of the euro as Lindsey Williams predicted, followed by 2 weeks before it would be the end of the dollar?

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  88. Just look at
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=SLV&m=2011-05-20

    May
    Put Options
    $35.00 SLV110521P00035000
    Contract 107,658!

    that 100k x 5000=$0.5B dollar per dollar difference

    It will serve as magnet every friday.

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  89. @waffen

    of course there is no US recovery, that is my whole point.

    Stocks are about to crash. Silver will go with them, but to a greater % extent, just as silver went up with stocks to a greater %.

    If the last week did not teach you that commodities and stocks are in lockstep, well there is no hope for you.

    Good luck. If you are long silver this weekend, you better PRAY greece gets bailed out.

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  90. more interesting

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=SLV&m=2011-07

    July Put Options
    25.00 SLV110716P00025000
    Contract 123,485!

    Prepare for wild Paper manipulation

    ReplyDelete
  91. So Greece is telling the Euro to go screw yourself...GOOD FOR THEM!

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasurys-turn-higher-losses-of-greek-reports-2011-05-06?link=MW_latest_news

    ReplyDelete
  92. @ waffen

    The dollar will continue its long, slow decline, but to think it will disappear in 2 weeks is beyond ridiculous, sorry.

    I will be buying silver below $20, sometime in the next 6 months, maybe next week, who knows, but it is going there.

    ReplyDelete
  93. I'd encourage EVERYONE to go back and reread the thread about the miners from Thursday. Many of them, and the HUI, look to have bottomed yesterday.

    ReplyDelete
  94. humahuaca,

    well so this would be the big deflationary headfake we get before hyperinflation then I take it?

    ReplyDelete
  95. Don't look now but SLV just manage to hold an attempt of lower lows on the 60 minute chart and that shows the sellers are exhausting , now it needs little buyers to push it higher naturally.
    Lets see if the bulls left can keep this hourly bar green, looks good but still too volatile..

    ReplyDelete
  96. Larry

    We all bought these metals on the proposition that this whole thing comes apart one fine day. Trying to figure out the day was the problem.

    If The EU started losing their big banks to Greek, Portuguese , and Irish defaults, well the thing is instantly contagious, and it spreads to America too, where do we get the next 3 trillion. Forget it.

    We all know this ends in ruin. And it will.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Is there a place where you could recycle your computer and get paid? I found a school where they are throwing out old computers and I'm thinking of picking them up if I could get money for them.
    Saw a video that old computers have PM's in them and when I saw those comps. . . ching,ching$.

    Anybody have any info on recyclers or smelters?

    ReplyDelete
  98. I will be buying silver below $20

    ---------

    No you won't because if it goes below $20 everyone and their mother will be backing up the truck...you can guarantee that.

    ReplyDelete
  99. Saw a video that old computers have PM's in them and when I saw those comps. . . ching,ching$.

    -----------

    Very dangerous and toxic, your better off shopping at APMEX, or your local coin store.

    Your lungs and vitals will thank you

    ReplyDelete
  100. @sanchez
    Computers do have PM's in them, but in VERY VERY VERY small amounts. I'm talking like less than 1/2 a gram of gold in the entire system.

    Usually you spend more in gas to move the computers than you get for them to recycle.

    ReplyDelete
  101. @waffen

    Could be the deflationary headfake, or the real thing, wish I was smart enough to know.

    All I know is, everything is about to crash, so best to be in cash, for a very short period.

    Soon as the dust settles, I will be buying AUD, CAD, oil, and maybe some oil company stocks. Maybe gold and silver if the price is reasonable.

    $36 silver and $1500 gold are not reasonable. JMO.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Our banking system is still heavily interweaved with the europe one.

    If greece says audios and defaults its going to affect our banking system.
    IF other euro countries follow suit it will be banking disaster time.

    That will smack our banking system. Then what?


    we print more money or we say no.

    bank failures create currency crisis

    the government steps in to save the day with benny bucks

    people flight to quality of commodities to actually live on.

    hyperinflation ensues?

    ReplyDelete
  103. Silver is matching EUR/USD movemnets almost 1 for 1.

    Not sure if it is just a USDX thing, or a EUR thing though

    ReplyDelete
  104. Bankers: We have a plan. And the Plan is moving right on Schedule.

    GO SHOPPING.

    ReplyDelete
  105. PM's catching a bit of flak from imaginary dollar strength, or rather, euro weakness. Few weeks ago, any selling in the euro would've been extremely short-lived, followed by an immediate spike back to where it was.

    PM's don't necessarily need to go up while this is going on. Treading some water would already show strength at this point. They'll probably join the upwards movement again as soon as traders realize they're selling euro's to buy dollars, confetti currency par excellence.

    ReplyDelete
  106. @shill

    if silver gets to $20, the panic sellers will be dumping so much physical the real likelihood is I will be able to buy at $8.

    But at that point I won't want it, no one will.

    FWIW, I think waaaaay in the future gold will be above $5,000 maybe $10,000, who knows? But not yet. PMs are full of speculators and moms and pops. I have relatives rushing to the silver shops to sell their old silver flatware.
    You should read the reuters story about silver refiners. There is a shortage of physical silver only because the refiners cannot melt the flatware fast enough. The sellers dwarf the sellers in the Hunt escapade.
    But hey, if you are a true believer and don't mind holding silver for 10 or 20 years to break even, buy now.

    ReplyDelete
  107. My personal favorite miner is Yamana gold (Auy). They are a low cost producer with both gold and silver and have several more projects coming online over the next two years that they are paying out of existing cash flow. I own the stock and love the Jan 2013 $10 strike calls. It is currently at $11.86. This stock was much higher (almost $19) like three years ago when they acquired a couple of other gold companies. It has taken them some time to digest the acquisitions.

    ReplyDelete
  108. From a rank chart amateur:

    I am looking at the spot silver on netdania, daily chart. My time frame was July 1, 2011, to the present.

    I drew in a line from the low of August 23, 2011 to the low of March 24, 2011. I just wanted to get a simple trend line view, and that seemed to be about right.

    Then, I pulled up the RSI study.

    Looking at the RSI swings from July to August, I note that the RSI sort of oscillated around the 50, with no real big moves either way up or down. Why not, I wondered?

    Then, looking at the RSI from the time frame Aug. 23 2011 to the present, I look at the RSI and I see huge variations to the upside hitting 83.6 on Oct. 3, then all the way back down to 32 on January 24, 2011.

    This was followed by 79 on Feb. 20, back down to a new low of 29.7 on May 4.

    So, looking at it simply, here is the question: Why is there more volatility since August 2010?

    Maybe there is a logical explanation, some event, or series of logical actions based on some objective happening, as opposed to speculation or cynical market shenanigans?

    Um, it seems so obvious, to me. Forgive me for being a rube, naive, simple minded. But . . .

    Did the QE in Aug 2010 have anything to do with the huge volatility swings?

    Then, looking at volume, since mid Dec. 2010, there has been pretty steady volume around 500,000 since the start of 2011, but suddenly, right at the top of the parabolic intermediate top, on April 27 2011 or so, volume nearly doubles! Price drops near vertically, on huge volume even topping 1,000,000!!

    It is so obvious that the last raid was coordinated manipulation. There is no doubt in my mind.

    So, the only question I have now, is what's next? A return to the normal volume of just under 500,000 on the daily chart? A return to the RSI between 40-56,000? If so, then would silver spot then necessarily, from a fundamental view, tend to want to return to its normal trend line following QE 1?

    Then, when the Fed starts QE3, won't the trend line do the same thing as it did from August 2010 until now, including having hellacious volatility and obvious manipulation?

    I think so, so physical is untouchable, and BTFD!

    Just my $0.02

    ReplyDelete
  109. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9LcKcXpCDE

    ReplyDelete
  110. Whitney Defends Her Prediction of ‘Hundreds of Billions’ in Muni Defaults

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-04/whitney-defends-her-prediction-of-hundreds-of-billions-in-muni-defaults.html

    Too humahuaca: I have held PM's for 10 and 20 years? What do you think some of us here just discovered this trade? Come on. I weed out noisy Mad Max comments usually with a La La La song. But hey good luck anyway with your position and stock your cave well.

    ReplyDelete
  111. "There is a shortage of physical silver only because the refiners cannot melt the flatware fast enough"

    Bullshit. Pure and utter bullshit.

    ReplyDelete
  112. @ Waffen:

    "Our banking system is still heavily interweaved with the europe one. "

    Yes indeed. A crappy little bank like Lehmans goes down and the world almost ends. It's still on life support, actually. Yet some people think that a major crisis in the Euro is going to be an opportunity for a stronger dollar? Really? All the US banks will be just as bust as the European ones via the web of derivatives and cross holdings that ties them all together, the Fed will be printing literally trillions to try and keep Wall St. showing a pulse and paper assets will go up in value?

    I think not.

    If the SHTF in Europe, then the effect on the Global economy will be Lehmans X1,000,000 the main difference being that it will not be possible to keep the fiat system intact this time. The problems will be way to large.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Eric Jantzen of iTulip.com called this well. Does anyone have any experience with his paid (expensive) website?

    ReplyDelete
  114. Sumo Obviously humahuaca is long the dollar.

    IE: BAG HOLDER. And lord know we are going to have millions upon millions of those. He says in so many words people will run to paper ha ha ha history says otherwise.

    ReplyDelete
  115. No good trades today on XAG, up or down. Staying on the sidelines reading Livermore's Stock Operator.

    ReplyDelete
  116. looks like we can say PM rallied into the COMEX close-

    I would not want to be pure short going into this particular weekend but on other hand I would not want to be too long either.

    Buy bull spreads?

    ReplyDelete
  117. @ Quintus,

    this is why I do not understand the bullish $ for a euro breakup.

    Look I certainly get worried when I see people touting cash and buying goods at pennies on the dollar.. But truth is, if there is a crisis, there will be a rush to buy goods..

    When you are ready to spend your cash to buy shit, it may already be too late.

    Isn't this why people say buy metals? Carrying cash and you are late to the supermarket, it might be gameover and all you have is paper.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Post 1:30 now.

    Will be interesting to see what direction things go from here until close.

    ReplyDelete
  119. @sumo

    are you aware just how much you sound like the real estate shills of bubbles past?

    'they aren't making any more land, buy now or forever be without'

    at least the RE shills had some small particle of truth to the statement.

    'they aren't making any more silver'

    you must be joking. Not only are mines sprouting up all over south america, where I live, everyone and his brother is selling their flatware.

    Please explain to me how industrial silver demand holds up in the scenario of total economic collapse.

    I'm sure it's an interesting story.

    ReplyDelete
  120. would this be considered a double bottom or do we need more solid evidence

    ReplyDelete
  121. I'm calling you out, fucktard, on this quote:

    "There is a shortage of physical silver only because the refiners cannot melt the flatware fast enough"

    Bullshit. Pure and utter bullshit.

    ReplyDelete
  122. @ humahuaca,

    I see now, you are in south america.. Well that means a lot different doesnt it. Hell I certainly have no idea what will happen down there, you may be right, silver may be worth nothing..

    things are very different in the states, we will see hyperinflation and paper dollars will not be king.

    ReplyDelete
  123. Hearts!

    If you don't want yours broken, sell out of AUY the next time you're up.

    Your money will be much more productive deployed elsewhere. I strongly suggest you consider a solid Yukon entry. Any one of them is going to run rings around Yamana from now until Fall.

    Just sayin'

    ReplyDelete
  124. ....When we consistently see this type of fiscal monetisation, one realises that real-adjusted targets for silver of $142, admittedly an outlier price associated with precursory signatures before a crash, will be surpassed. This is because, in reality, as John William's Shadow Government Statistics points out, $490 silver is the real outlier high. That leaves a lot of price discovery in between, and after years of price controls we are seeing the swift correction to these controls.
    From Hindesight Investor Newsletter..April 2011
    They also predicted the $15 crash.

    ReplyDelete
  125. for those of you who are intellectually honest and rational, not fervent true believers, read this story and tell me who is lying, sumo or me?

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/05/us-silver-scrap-idUSTRE7440NX20110505

    I guess reuters is in on the big conspiracy too, lol.

    ReplyDelete
  126. I'm sure it's an interesting story.

    -----------

    Everyone is selling their flatware? So what, are they all eating with their hands now?

    Go comb your hair, its looking all fuzzy like.

    ReplyDelete
  127. @waffen

    silver has value, just hard to tell what that value is.

    I am a trader, so I am interested in buying low and selling high, nothing more.

    Silver could be very useful in madmax scenario, I just don't happen to believe in it.

    During the depression people helped each other out, they didn't hide in bomb shelters eating canned food and shooting zombies.

    ReplyDelete
  128. Yep, China can now cancel all those mine off-take deals with silver miners. It can use recycled spoons instead.

    Try again, troll. You're full of it.

    ReplyDelete
  129. I'll counter the argument, CHINA says otherwise.

    China Buying Silver Overnight, Prudent Money Holding and Accumulating Bullion on Dip

    http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=nid4i7n6&v=001kpRLqdWUZBwdVlP-NBsN7tXaylHEHFG_Cm8Bj-STjQKbe8sjNvj8P3psWmY3kpXcXvG1qcTMYT9QKfvBN4gCon1kyaWXTyw3OdFWFwM286Q%3D

    ReplyDelete
  130. Scrap silver. No problem!

    http://www.youtube.com/user/BrotherJohnF#p/u/39/P6oCXsN3AWk

    ReplyDelete
  131. @humahuaca ac achoo

    For a trader you have an awful lot of free time to post.

    ReplyDelete
  132. The conditions that support the thesis here for an eventual retest or at least support seem to be coming a bit undone and so I wonder how valid the idea is. The dollar has just put in a bigger bounce than expected and silver has slid way further than expected. AS well silver is a huge laggard to gold indicating little support or more downside to come.

    ReplyDelete
  133. "I guess reuters is in on the big conspiracy too, lol."

    No Huey, I really feel Reuters does nothing but tell the truth. They've sure been a beacon of integrity lo these last 10 years of PM price suppression.

    Reuters = Truth. I mean, what rational person could possibly argue with that position?

    ReplyDelete
  134. Turd Ferguson said...

    Luvpms: silver will rally in June ahead of first delvery for the July contract. Regardless of this weeks action, the comex still only has 32mm ounces of silver.

    The action into the close and on the Globex today will be your "tell" for early next week. If down, you know that The Cartel was warned their friends that more margin hikes are coming, similar to last Friday's action.
    If flat to up, Monday and Tuesday should be rally days."

    Thanks, Turd...this answered my question about June from the previous thread!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  135. CA Lawyer,

    All that money has to go somewhere. Why not commodities? There will be a hurricane of money into PM the moment one of the Eurobanks collapses. I expect the collapse of the entire system will only take ten days.

    ReplyDelete
  136. atlee he trades Widgets, while counting spoons.

    ( Checks widget symbol ) Yup nothing moving. But hey everyone is selling their forks and spoons..ITS A FLATWARE BULL MARKET!!!

    BUBBLE!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  137. Sorry guys for possibly trolling but...this is fucking unbelievable after Blythe just rip me off almost all my fiat money within 4 days, I made ‘all in’ stake 100x leveraged short EUR/AUD and guess what… my money is back.

    PS. I love Greeks, I could possibly make love with Blythe (Greek way of course to make that bitch suffer)

    PPS. I ordered another bunch of Wiener Philharmiker and going wasted big time

    ReplyDelete
  138. A "Euro" collapse only strengthens the $US in terms of the other fiat. Don't forget, Europeans buy precious metals also! It will be fun to watch the PMs rally their arses off along with the illusion of the $US rally. Once the "Euro" goes, and it will, there will be no other choice except for the US to begin their bailout more in the open-that's when we can see the $100+ gains in gold daily. Interesting times!!

    ReplyDelete
  139. "The House of Rothschild bought Reuters news service in the 1800's. Within the last 20 years, Reuters bought the Associated Press. Now the Elite own the two largest wire services in the world, where most newspapers get their news. The Rothschilds have control of all three U.S. (Television) Networks, plus other aspects of the recording and mass media industry according to research by Eustice Mullins in his book, 'Who Owns the TV Networks'.

    ReplyDelete
  140. @humahuaca - check your sources and premises, man. The Reuters (hit) piece uses this as a source:
    http://www.silverinstitute.org/supply_demand.php
    This claims that total global investment demand was 178M oz. in 2010. The US Mint alone sold 34.6M oz as ASE's - you think the entire rest of the world + ETFs + bars + other sovereign mints only used 143M oz? Sprott alone bought ~22.3M. SLV claims to have ingested 46M.
    The numbers don't add up, and thus the rest of the figures are called into question.

    ReplyDelete
  141. @ atlee

    retired.

    and about 90% cash right now, just have a long SDS position at a very good average.

    waiting impatiently for the crash.

    I called this perfectly last night, even before the number, check my post.

    I did very well today, BTW, more than made up for a lousy week.

    how's your day? going long into the weekend with a greece default looming? Good luck.

    ReplyDelete
  142. Insight, I have BREAKING NEWS.

    There is NO SHORTAGE of silver, NO RISK OF DEFAULT at the Crimex.

    Do you know why JPMorgue built it's own vault?

    SPOONS. It's full of silver SPOONS. JPM is going to deliver silver spoons to longs who stand for delivery.

    1000 spoons for each full contract. We'll all be rooned!

    ReplyDelete
  143. Hi all - I've been a lurker for a long time but this is my first post. First, a HUGE thanks to Turd for everything you do - your insights have saved me thousands of dollars on my physical purchases.

    I just pulled the trigger on another 225 maples - $38.10 CAD each! I'm happy, even if it drops a bit lower next week. I just wanted to get my physical locked in so I can now just sit back and enjoy the ride!

    Thanks to all the great posters on this blog who provide such excellent insight - it's much appreciated! Turd's place has such a better vibe than other sites out there - I consider this place my "Web home" ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  144. Huma, EWC

    Reuters was purchased by the Rothschild family over 100 years ago so you can bet whatever they say get "approved."

    ReplyDelete
  145. @humahuaca:

    What you are seeing in the scrap market is the transfer of physical wealth from the have-nots to the haves. Three years ago, Cash4Gold was advertising on the Superbowl and sucking up huge amounts of scrap gold from desperate people. Since then, the price of gold has not exactly crashed from all that supply, has it?

    The people that are selling their scrap silver right now are not the well off looking to cash in on grandma's forks and knives. They are the unemployed, underemployed, or retired struggling to buy groceries and gasoline. They are, in essence, already living in the "mad-max" scenario trading physical PMs for the ability to feed and shelter themselves. Meanwhile, the rest of us are buying it up while we can, so that it can feed and shelter us when the "mad-max" scenario comes to our home.

    ReplyDelete
  146. Humahuaca,

    Good point! Silver was worthless before industrialization and it will be worthless post industrialization. It's not as if Jesus was worth only 30 pieces of silver!

    ReplyDelete
  147. EUO for those who do not play the forex.

    ReplyDelete
  148. Man, it kind of makes me wonder what they will do after all the forks and spoons are melted. I think I will get a little more concerned when those folks that have been eating with their fingers are standing in the line to buy silver pesos.Jd.

    ReplyDelete
  149. You can read who controls us HERE They can turn the switch, as they do, on and off and there is nothing you or I can do. BELIEVE IT OR NOT.

    ReplyDelete
  150. Belt buckles, Duke. Belt buckles.

    ReplyDelete
  151. There is NO SHORTAGE of silver, NO RISK OF DEFAULT at the Crimex.

    Do you know why JPMorgue built it's own vault?

    SPOONS. It's full of silver SPOONS. JPM is going to deliver silver spoons to longs who stand for delivery.

    1000 spoons for each full contract. We'll all be rooned!

    ---------------

    Wha ha ha ha ha ha Quick honey hide the flatware SUMO is coming for it ha ha ha ha good one indeed.

    ReplyDelete
  152. Mmm, I like spooning. I prefer being the big spoon, but every now and then after long weeks such as this one it's OK for the man to be the little spoon. Sometimes if you're lucky, you get to be the middle spoon. That's what I call hitting the jackpot.

    Still hesitant to hop back in to miners, but seeing as how it looked like they were starting to bottom on Wednesday I decided to pick up a few shares of GPL today, this $ has been burning a hole in my pocket all week. Looking to add one more before closing, Endeavor or Revett.

    I have a question on Revett though for anyone who can answer. How do pinksheets work when a stock gets listed on the NYSE? Will the pinksheets automatically make the transition? No idea how that works. Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
  153. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  154. celebrityRAzz

    I'm an avid reader of anything and everything I can get for free at iTulip.com. Sorry to say I've always been too cheap to pay up for the rest. From what I can see, he fits in perfectly with my worldview. Great Stuff.

    ReplyDelete
  155. Yep, troll, if you get tired of being called out on your shit, go elsewhere.

    Some people are just interested in the facts. You don't have any.

    I'm calling you out on your bullshit:

    "There is a shortage of physical silver only because the refiners cannot melt the flatware fast enough"

    ReplyDelete
  156. JUstin

    It sometimes takes a couple days, but your stock will just show up in your account with it's new ticker just fine.

    ReplyDelete
  157. @ferretflat:

    You said:

    All that money has to go somewhere. Why not commodities? There will be a hurricane of money into PM the moment one of the Eurobanks collapses. I expect the collapse of the entire system will only take ten days.

    _____________________

    That was my point, the money had to go somewhere. If you look at the daily chart, volume and RSI, money started pouring into silver in late August 2010. Silver went from $18 to $24, before a slight sell off in mid October, then just kept chugging higher. Volatility swings began oscillating higher and higher.

    Look at April 20, 2011, RSI was at 87, then on May 4, it bottoms at 29. Look at that spread! That is extreme volatility, based on huge volumes.

    I drew in the trend line, just eyeballing it, basically, and if silver just trended uphill in normal fashion, silver would be at approx. $41.00 on its way higher.

    I am not sure that euro bank will collapse just yet. I give the powers that be more credit than that for now. A sovereign default? That is more likely, but again, that will be avoided by TPTB at all costs, for now.

    ReplyDelete
  158. @VAMOOSE-
    Very dangerous situations indeed.

    The BRICs look to be isolating their economies from the fiat gambit by rigging to the commodity output in their nations.

    Eurozone destabilization was discussed years ago as a scenario to prop up US Dollar valuation.

    Here we see this playing out.

    SHTF is in progress by way of declining industrial productivity in Japan (by way of natural disaster) and in the US (by self-immolation).

    I am very interested in the next two hours of trading.

    ReplyDelete
  159. @ Humahuaca

    Re: "I guess reuters is in on the big conspiracy too, lol. "

    "To better understand this on-going tyranny of capital we also need to know how, from near-absolute power over the people’s finances, the House of Rothschild and others moved on to control, and enclose, our media and information supply. As Kent Cooper, a former head of Associated Press, noted "international bankers under the House of Rothschild acquired an interest in the three leading European [news] agencies." The Rothschild group purchased Reuters in London, Havas in France, and Wolf in Germany to monopolize the news creation nexus and information-dissemination business in Europe and around the world. Today's global corporate media empire is simply an extension of this trend to control information and assure capital's propaganda remains both dominant and ubiquitous."

    http://www.publiccentralbank.com/

    Reuters owns Associated Press from my understanding, as the network CEO's are all apart of the CFR and other "elite" meetings.

    So, in short yes, Reuters is in on it too.

    ReplyDelete
  160. For what it's worth, practically every time I've been to a coin shop for the past month, there's been someone in there trying to sell a box full of sterling flatware. 9 times out of 10 they are told sorry, it's plated and they go home disappointed. FWIW. Not trying to agree or disagree with anything, just saying what I been seeing in the shops.

    ReplyDelete
  161. SHTF is in progress by way of declining industrial productivity in Japan (by way of natural disaster) and in the US (by self-immolation).

    ----------

    Bingo, and there will be a huge sell off when Japan reports their Q sheet next month. Maybe even and epic fall similar to the PM fall of this week in Equities.

    ReplyDelete
  162. turd
    re the miners. i follow the GDX. it looks to me like we could get a close over the 200sma. even better 57.20+ would be good sign.

    ReplyDelete
  163. Been outside climbing ladders and crawling around on the roof for the last hour. Getting too old for this shit. Scores good points with the Missus though. Not too old for that!

    Look forward to the day when I can hop in my golf cart, putt putt to the coin shop, and cash in my retirement pension for the month. Already plotting which ones go first, and which ones they'll have to pry from my cold dead hands. A guy can dream can't he?

    ReplyDelete
  164. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  165. Well one thing is for dam sure, central banks are buying and will continue to buy.

    And so should you.

    http://www.safehaven.com/article/20894/central-bank-buying-and-the-sudden-fall-in-the-gold-price?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+safehaven%2Fall-articles+%28Safehaven+-+Most+Recent+Articles%29&utm_content=My+Yahoo

    ReplyDelete
  166. My personal belief, no support or links to give, is that 75% of all the sterling flatware that ever existed was melted down in 1980.

    ReplyDelete
  167. There are few things more sad then the insistent troll who feels a violent need to be right and hailed as "smart" above all else by an anonymous group of strangers on the internet.

    Take a victory lap, Humahuaca; your life is now validated.

    ReplyDelete
  168. sumo @ 1:29 PM:

    I agree with you that suggesting a shortage of silver is due only to junk refinery capacity is retarded (assuming it's not simply trollish).

    If reports that refiners of junk silver are unable to keep up with demand are true, then that would indicate that these refiners are maxed out — i.e. they're likely releasing more silver into the marketplace than normal.

    humahuaca: ...There is a shortage of physical silver only because the refiners cannot melt the flatware fast enough... ...

    ...is about as useful as stating that there is a shortage of silver only because the miners can't mine it fast enough.

    ReplyDelete
  169. Interesting Fact. Although most of us see silver
    as the 'no brainer' pm of choice, have just been perusing the long term kitco charts. From yk2 to now, gold in round terms has gone from 300 - 1500 bucks, a 5 bagger. Silver, with all its shenanigans, has gone from 6 bucks to 36 (an
    hour ago or thereabouts), therefore..... a 6 bagger. Are we masochists or something ? I bought in at 44.70 at around 9am gmt, felt clever for a few hours, now not so sure. My
    investor gut says 28-33, my trader gut said 44.70 might be ok. Thats why I'll never be Jim Rogers, with a 30 year plan and a 30 minute plan, and a lot of plans in between. Halfwits often find a telescope more use than a microscope.

    ReplyDelete
  170. ever since Hummuswhacko started posting about flatware the spot price of silver has been falling... revelation is rippling through the markets!!! put your $50 AGQ stink bids in NOW!!!

    ReplyDelete
  171. @/SleepingVillage/ -- yes, the air of superior condescension in response to viewpoints contrary to your own is DEFINITELY a surefire way to lend credence to your opinion, and will make you both respected and feared among Turdites.

    To make a sweeping claim of long-term silver market trends with nothing but an unsourced Reuters article to back you up is... thin. Really, really thin.

    Educate us with some more substantial reasoning. I for one AM curious.

    Humahuaca has perfectly valid and (as far as I can see) untestable views on the next 3 months of the dollar vs. Ag price. I am curious to learn why (industrial demand or lack thereof is a very good point).

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  172. Am I the only one expecting a selloff at the heels of the new margin increase monday? I'm still flat, but only because I'll never short it.

    The margin hikes seem to feed on themselves as weak positions are either liquidated or forced to go elsewhere.

    I'm talking about only the very short term of course.. BUT: am I way off expecting a sunday night globex selloff and monday overshoot?

    @sumo right on about the spoons! most of that type of 'scrap' has already found its way into the melting pots.

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  173. to waffen

    what i meant was when they know a crisis is coming they will often clobber the precious metals so that the inevitable upward reaction starts from a lower point.Lowers the water temperature.

    Was this week about Greece, dont know, Zero hedge has some good contrary arguments in fairness, i guess we will know by Sunday night,

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  174. EA: IMO Eustace Mullins was a GREAT American. Clearly he's right: he's both ignored, and mostly unknown. His work "The World Order, Our Secret Rulers" is on my top shelf and has been since I got it in 1995. I also recommend his "The Federal Reserve Conspiracy" and "Mullins on the Federal Reserve".

    His relationship to the genius Ezra Pound is a fascinating one. EP is another unknown American hero and great Patriot.

    For anyone looking to learn about previous generations of Financial Freedom Fighters, these 2 gents are eye-openers for sure.

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  175. well, we are in the red again...

    if we take turds advice in the update we get to have another stressful week full of margin increases starting on monday! oh the joy...

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  176. Shill said... Too humahuaca:
    +1
    Top calling trolls same same as bottom calling trolls.
    FWIW, yes the refiners are backed up because scrap is the first to go when PM prices go up not the Engelhard old pours.
    /No soup for you!

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  177. Once the various futures markets adjust to the new Margin Hike regime, which is clearly targeted to keep commodity prices down, this will only serve to create more volatility and possibly even hoarding--as large global players will only be too happy to swoop in and buy Wheat, Corn, Gasoil, and metals during the downspikes. The policy complex knows that commodity inflation is their biggest challenge now, as they soldier on with reflationary policy. Because they don't understand commodities, they really do believe that getting speculative action out of the markets will improve things. It won't. It will only deprive prices of available information.

    It's ironic that after centuries of market history, humans still think that having fewer--rather than more--participants will force more accurate pricing.

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  178. One last beatdown for the weekend! Unreal. Let's hope we can find some coinshops that have some inventory. BTW - There are a few guys here in California that will order AE's at spot plus a few bucks. You just have to wait for 3 weeks but it might be worth it. Some guys don't even charge you full price to order. Kind of a poor man's 500oz futures contract.

    Something to think about.

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  179. Hmmm, a "double bombing" day today? Many first responders are getting burned by bomb 2...

    THAT is why we said PATIENCE. This thing bears more watching.

    Glad I kept 1/2 of this week's ammo dry when I bought some Ag earlier.

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  180. Not making any money. Not losing any money. Trading today is a wash. Don't think I want to carry any trades into the weekend either. Not in this market.

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  181. Yesterday I got back to 'all in' with my favorite miners: AXU - EXK - GPL - ISVLF - UXG & a new position in JAG, as well as accumulating CEF. So far so good, hopefully will not be caught in a EE Bull trap.

    Also bought 116 oz. AG on 5/2 at $45 & another 60 yesterday @ $36 -- along with two 1 oz. Gold Maple Leafs. I don't feel too bad about paying the $45. I am really looking forward to holding those beautiful Heraeus bars in my hand next week.

    I bought from Bullion Vault which has ASE's right now for $38.75. They also have a bullion trading exchange, and an IRA bullion plan. Free storage & relatively low shipping. Worth checking out.

    My overall strategy here is to invest in the JR miners, periodically take some profit & re-invest that into physical PM's & more shares of CEF.

    I’m also watching Maganese, Lithium, Potash, NatGas & Rare Earths.

    I'm long patience & short the EE!

    "You hand in your ticket and you go watch the geek
    who immediately walks up to you when he hears you speak and says 'How does it feel to be such a freak?'and you say 'impossible' as he hands you a bone and something is happening here but you don't know what it is do you, Mr. Jones?"

    ... B. Dylan

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  182. Ok then. They're down to scrap silver arguments, and serial margin rate hikes.

    Oh yeah, we are winning for sure.

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  183. FOAGQ,

    Or at least those who are semi-friendly & are waaaaaay the hell underwater -- anyone considering a "half loss" going into the weekend? Or are we just holding on until June when the Comex tightness brings the bids back?

    I'm nearly 50% off - kinda proud of how wrong I was to buy at 46. Idiot.

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  184. last chance boys, say good bye to 1340 on the s&p

    lol

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  185. Getting more and more convinced that the margin hikes and Greek coverage is a blatant attempt to subdue the visible effects of inflation as QEII ends, rates threaten to rise and markets threaten to tumble. This will take away the fears of inflation associated with easing and open the door to QEIII being accepted.

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  186. "Crude Dropping On CL Margin Hike Rumor"

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/crude-dropping-cl-margin-hike-rumor

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  187. Will be interesting to see how the algos trade 3:00 to 3:30.

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  188. Did we see the Mondays CME hike priced in today or will we see more crap for the beginning of next week?

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  189. i remember in 08 when silver plunged to 8-9 bucks from 21 and me & a buddy scoured the land to find da physical, we bought & bought, get this......... between 12-13.50 per oz , which would equate 2 an approximate 50% markup or starting in the hole down 50%, any logical financial planner or any other financial type guru i'm sure would have had some nice adjectives to describe our genius move, my buddy called me 2 days ago and said lets get goin again we r ony buyin at max 10% premium...he who has ears 2 hear....and balls 2 make the move......cheers

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  190. found an RSI alarm indicator if anyone wants it

    it's the one called: Color_RSI_v1.01_maxsig.mq4

    RSI ALARM

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  191. vamoose,

    Ok I can fully agree with that. knockdown silver so when it shoots back up, its getting back to the position from which you knocked it.

    agreed

    the media wont talk about silver as it goes up, now that they immolated it on the way down. sheep will be non the wiser.

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  192. I like how they ban shorts on SLV, but then also on ZSL (which is a loaded short). Combined with the margin hikes, you have complete parody. Have a good weekend TF, thanks for the guidance in this crazy week.

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  193. santa just lit up 1764 angel

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  194. Sorry, I meant 34.70 at 9am gmt. Freudian slip.
    Ok, taking my argument another step. If gold is the jumbo jet and silver the harrier jet that needs refuelling all the time, their speed over the long haul is the same (conjecture).
    Silver is mostly a biproduct metal, as we know, but gold largely isnt. Silver miners have much higher margins per ounce, but much smaller profits per ounce, a zero sum gain. BUT. There are ten times more gold juniors than silver juniors. That means more choice, and more profit to be made picking the right ones. Having been in SAC and losing 50 per cent due to Bolivian political risk, I dont like making the same mistake over and over and over. Maybe Mexico is 'safe', maybe it isnt. Where things dont get any safer is the Yukon. There is a very strong chance that a new 'Carlin trend ' is unfolding. Ie 200m plus gold ounces. One company there is a 35 bagger in the last 18 months. I'm hoping it'll be a 3 bagger this year, and maybe again next, and along with some of its neighbours as well. Doesnt matter if gold is 1400 or 1800, they'll still do well. Dont go for the 'penny' yukon stocks - too much risk. Look for the ones that have only been drilling a year or two, but have already got some holes with very good grades - that way you're not just buying into a hole in the ground. Not as much fun as options, perhaps, but a very viable alternative especially for newbies and halfwits.

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  195. I'm selling silver miners and buying companies that hold silver cutlery in stock. Chinese PM refiners will be making takeover bids any day now. M&A, people, M&A.

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  196. @ magisoo

    Ya held on this long. How ya going to feel if you let go and we are higher all next week. Turd says we may test the 33 again and that is where to buy. You could let go half and try and buy lower next wk. Tough call but you held on this long. Turd has be right on these metals so I am prepared to buy again at 33. Probably go home flat but I am not adverse to paying up if I have to.

    @ huimacho cho or whatever the fk your name is

    aren't you late for a circle jerk somewhere. Better get a move on.

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  197. Anyone know the silver/gold backed currency bill that is discussed in this video. I would like to look it up and read it over

    http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/05.11/ridleyreport.html

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  198. I'm selling silver miners and buying companies that hold silver cutlery in stock. Chinese PM refiners will be making takeover bids any day now. M&A, people, M&A.

    ------------------

    Long Silver Creamers and Tea Pots.

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