Tuesday, April 12, 2011

What To Do...

At the urging of "friends" at ZeroHedge, I started this blog exactly five months ago. To my complete astonishment, it has grown almost exponentially. It now ranks in the top 40,000 of all websites in the world and has received just shy of 4,000,000 total pageviews. Its my blog but I've told countless people that the real value lies in the comments section. We have so many wise, thoughtful readers that the information they supply, for free, in the comments is the key driver of this site's growth. To capitalize on our shared potential to help educate others, I've even begun the process of building a new, dedicated site for us to use. The site is to be part blog, part forum. A platform for all of us to share information about the PMs, miners, bullion dealers and the like. A sort of "Angie's List" for all things precious metal.

I must say, the last 24 hours have given me reason to doubt whether its possible to pull it off. The Cartel has an army of disinformation agents out there. The AGAs distract and dissuade people from buying and holding PMs. There are also just regular, plain old douchebags who like to invade internet sites and, through the comfort of anonymity, argue, cajole and name-call just to get attention. I understand this and recognize that it comes with the territory. For example, in the last day alone, we've seen threads "hijacked" by:

"Blythe": As if we're all so megalomaniacal and stupid enough to believe that The Blythe would waste her time by showing up on a blog to post cryptic messages like "we're watching you, Mr. Ferguson". Yah, right. I may have been born at night but it wasn't last night.


"Vamoose": This is a fun one. Mr. Vamoose shows up to inform us that their has been a "policy change" whereby food prices are going to be forced to collapse to control events in MENA. Right... Of course, he knows this even while admitting he "has no connections", just lots of experience. Right...

"Trinity B": My personal favorite. This douchebag would have you believe he runs a "team" of traders who encouraged him to look at our laughable and foolish site. Oh, what a bunch of rubes we are, he chortles. Toward the end of the note, this person also implies that she is, in fact, Blythe. Wow, never heard that one before. Ole Blythe sure has a lot of different personalities.

"AGoldHamster": This fucking guy only crawls out from under his rock when the metals correct a little bit. Usually its to take potshots at me and this site and he did it again today by stating that Trinity B "made the best comment and post since this blog existed". Believe me, if there was a way to ban this fucking douchebag, I would. The new site will definitely give me that capability. We'll call it the "Hamster Hammer", or some such name. In the meantime, lets just hope he goes away.

Anyway, here's the point: As this site grows and makes an even bigger impact on the lives of everyday people trying to prepare for an uncertain future, I can only assure you that there will be more and more AGAs and Disinformation Agents showing up every day. ALL WE CAN DO IS IGNORE THEM. If you make the mistake of engaging them in any way, the threads get hijacked and the level of discourse quickly descends to Yahoo message board level. A serious person with a serious point of view, whether long or short PMs, will always be welcome here and their opinions will always be honored. Assholes who appear simply to start fights do so with the intention of destroying the credibility of this board. Please do not let it happen.

OK, back to business. A serious effort is being made to squeeze the longs in commodities. Tungstenman's memo regarding Brent crude was just one symptom of this. Always keep in mind the fundos. Have they changed? Is the dollar suddenly rescued? Is the U.S. government now running a surplus? Is the U.S. economy chugging along at 5% GDP growth? Are peace love and stability suddenly breaking out all over the Middle East? Are the TBTF banks all solvent, their loans and CDOs all at par?

Bull markets take breathers. We're taking one now. Both metals have corrected to their first-level, primary support. I'll be very surprised if they go much lower.

Relax. Be happy. Have faith.
And, for the love of pete, PLEASE IGNORE THE TROLLS.
TF

p.s. Thought I should add this, too. Watch the USD/JPY very closely for clues.

408 comments:

  1. Can't the Mighty Turd just make Vamoose... Vamoose?

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  2. agreed, Turd. Don't feed the trolls.

    As far as how to deal with them on the new site, that's what karma is for. Allows communities to self-regulate. The exact implementation depends on the platform you're using, but look it up I'm sure somethings available.

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  3. Usually the trolls are so mad because they can't make a dime trading and are pissed off at the world. But then again, if you chose to short silver and gold, you can't come back complaining that it isn't performing.

    Back to trading: Isn't it fun to buy during panic dips? 39.80 for silver and 105 for crude are the levels I am watching.

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  4. do I see a little green shoot?
    Revett

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  5. Turd,

    That must have been an awesome massage. Good to release those toxins, now drink lots of water!

    Great post.

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  6. One last FUBM for the topping off of this post would be awesome.

    Cheers Turd.

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  7. The law of large numbers is seen in stars, economics, society and blogs. "Mo money, mo problems."

    Rec name for banishment - Courtesy Flush

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  8. There are a lot of sad fuckers in the world. The internet gives them a voice. In the real world, they are just marginalized midgets...I bounce em immediately on my site...

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  9. 10Y/30Y auction comes up the next two days so these shenanigans might run it down to 38-39. Not gonna surprise me if it happens. Looking forward to clearer pictures on Thursday.

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  10. I was not liking the action on miners, vicious leveraged downside on silver down and weak recovery (relatively) when up. Moved all to
    AGQ and some cash for buying dips...good move
    so far....

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  11. Turd : you are a wise man ...

    and RICH

    check that out :

    http://bizinformation.org/us/www.tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com

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  12. My miners are heading up into the close.

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  13. Seventhed!

    "regular plain old douchebags" , "this fucking guy" ... Turd Ferguson in general... +40 in my book!

    Don't be discouraged Ray: Built it and they will come.

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  14. Perhaps you can have a SHITLIST were you place these carbon based life forms so the newbies know to ignore them and the rest of us can carry on.

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  15. that was some good shit, Turd :-)

    love how you make it understandable, like the little light that goes on

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  16. Nice post, Mr Furguson :-)

    (Note that Brits don't use a full stop/period after "Mr" - so there was never any doubt about the "Blythe" on your post being the real British Blythe... :-) )

    Reposting a long comment just because I spent a while on this post in reply to Old Navy, and then finished the last thread with it! Please ignore if not interested in Saudi politics, etc.

    Thanks for the kind words. That was actually quite an uncharacteristic rant from me - sorry about that.

    Old Navy: that's a huge question. I'll try to give my view as briefly as possible :-)

    First, let me stress that Saudi is not indestructible by any means. I was referring only to this daft food price theory.

    Saudi could face trouble from other causes, however:

    1. The ruling class is aged, and more likely than not the top people will all die within a few years of each other, leaving a power (and competence) vacuum. Saudi exists through an unholy alliance between the al-Saud sub-tribe and the Wahabbis. A new power formula might need to be negotiated, and this might not be at all favourable to the West.

    2. Yemen is a Somalia waiting to happen. I lived there for three years and love the place. But when TSHTF there, it will be horrendous. Migrant flows alone could overwhelm KSA. More ominously, AQ (al-Qa'idah) are better established in Yemen than any other country at the moment. If they go North and attempt to cause chaos there, then it will make the 70s oil shock look like a picnic.

    3. Saudi faces the possibility of being surrounded by semi-functioning democracies. Israel is already there; Lebanon and Iraq are not far behind. Egypt next, then perhaps Jordan, Yemen, Syria and Bahrain. That only leaves Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE. Using 1989 in Europe as an example, then the pressure to reform might (MIGHT) become so enormous that the previously ultra-conservative population could shift its views.

    4. The Shia' influence is, in my view, over-stated. Iran and Israel have always been the two regional powers (Saddam in Iraq was always far more scared of Iran than the US, and rightly so). Saudi's domestic Shia' population is easily controlled, as is that of Bahrain, as evidenced by recent Saudi involvement there. Yemen's Shia' population is currently focussing on fighting the (largely Sunni) Sanhan-tribe-led Yemeni government.

    Could Iran alone wipe out Saudi? Yes, probably. But only at the cost of its own annihilation. Iran prefers to use proxies to stir minor discontent, as it does in the north of Yemen, in Bahrain, and in Lebanon. It prefers to chip away at stability rather than provoke outright conflict in which its own destruction would be assured.

    Not sure if I've answered your question, but I enjoyed writing all that out..!

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  17. Right on Turd !!!

    told myself I wouldn't do this (repost from last thread bottom) but I will here ...

    would like to share a stock that is NATGAS related ... have been following it since March 25th when it was 18.70 ... went as high as 27.90 and is now at 24.38 ... great idea by a Canadian company ...

    Westport Innovations. Converting gasoline engines into natural gas engines. Trading symbols: WPT.TO (TSX, WPRT (NASDAQ).
    Dividend? NO.
    (T. Boone Pickens is a major shareholder).
    Website: www.westport.com

    please DYODD

    Just to add I don't own this just been following ... would like any input that others have after looking in ... thanks

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  18. Great idea to call out the trolls publically!

    Top notch Turd, as always.

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  19. Honestly, I think what you traders need is a irq channel, and maybe a three strikes policy. First second times, 24 hr ban.

    Maybe some policy of important tradable talk only. All other conversations relegated to the forums. There are certainly some willing volunteer moderaters amongst us.

    I'm not a very active trader now, but when I was, the scrolling irq window was an awesome way to use many eyes to watch the markets, and trade info.

    I know I'm dating myself mentioning irq, whatta you kids call it now, IM, or some such?

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  20. Marvin: Now that I've stopped laughing, I'll cut you a deal:

    Its all yours for $1.8MM. I'll even stay on with a non-compete as a "paid consultant".

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  21. FOREX silver pretty interesting today. I've counted 7 times Silver has been knocked down (or pulled down by the unseen hand) under 40 and each time, it rebounds very quickly.

    Amazing whipsaw action.

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  22. Turd, your site is great and of valuable help. Don't bother paying attention to losers. You should think about publishing premium content on trading silver/PM with options and on how to setup stategies etc..

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  23. So looking forward to the new site. Almost as anxious to see the site as I am to see $50 silver (note I did say almost!)

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  24. Hey Turd,

    Just a quick one - when you're building the site talk to your architect about using a pre-packaged Content Management System such as Wordpress or Drupal as the core. It'll make the end result much cheaper by way of leveraging the time spend by the community to create these sites - and much more robust than many straight custom jobs.

    ALSO - the best thing is that well supported CMS solutions such as above make administration - such as banning users by IP address, not login, stupid-simple to do. Banning by IP address won't kill the most dedicated of trolls, but it'll make them work hard for their shits and giggles. Added bonus: you can cross reference IP hits with known IPs to spotcheck the real-world organizations you're getting visited from.

    Good luck!

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  25. We need more war, apparently

    Moammar Gadhafi's forces fired rockets along the eastern front line and shelled the besieged city of Misrata on Tuesday as France and Britain said NATO should be doing more to pressure the Libyan regime.

    Several rockets struck Ajdabiya, the main point leading into the rebel-held east, and witnesses also reported shelling in Misrata, the only major city in the western half of Libya that remains under partial rebel control.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42557768/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa/

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  26. Turd...you my friend are a breath of fresh air.
    Glad you addressed the issue and called them out.

    As you know, it's hard to completely ignore the absurd attacks on the herd when most of us are having a down PM day.
    I hope (and know, I think) you are considering a "ignore" button on your new website.

    I try not to feed the seagulls when they start hovering but it's tough sometimes as they almost invite it.
    (I thought my Richard Gere/human habi-trail comment was funny and warranted for AGoldenHamster)
    Sorry if I offended anyone.

    Keep on doing what you do as all of your Herd appreciates the opportunity you have given us.

    PS. Your warped at times like I am and I love it! Thats a definite compliment.

    Better days ahead everyone.

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  27. Wise words again TF, wise indeed. Someone linked to a troll FAQ site earlier(thanks whoever), I read it and laughed. Then I read the comments again and laughed even more..All 3 of those "jokes" fit the profile 100%...

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  28. You have a way with words, Turd. Even when you swear, you do so eloquently...

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  29. Who's winning in Libya again? Seems an endless quagmire to me. Maybe that's what TPTB wanted all along.

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  30. Turd :
    lets say 1.7 Mio and a massage from me for you *....*

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  31. AG....You make a great point about the premium part and options info. and strategies.

    I have a lot to learn and I know there is a wealth of knowledge and character on this blog.

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  32. Marvin

    That was great ... sometimes I just come here for the humor or as xty would say "the humour"

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  33. btw : tomorrow is expiry of the OilContracts.. will be interesting to see how far they will knock it down

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  34. Diplocat,

    Thanks for the insight on Saudi Arabia and MENA to a lesser extent... lot of value added from your series of posts.

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  35. Turd, here are some features that my own community site uses to police itself. Feel free to shamelessly plunder any/all of them for your new site. Feel free email me with any questions.

    Ignore profile: Each account has the option to select user profiles they find offensive/questionable and put them in an ignored state. While ignored any posts by that user are not displayed to the viewer.

    Mass Ignore: Site administrators on a global level can add a user to everyone's ignore list. Ignored users can continue to post but their comments will not be viewable by anyone.

    Ratings/Karma system: Users have the ability to increment/decrement the perceived "value" of a post. Once a post is sufficiently decremented, it is effectively muted out of the discussion.

    Lieutenant admins: At some point, the Turd is going to want to take a vacation or some extended leave away from a keyboard. This happens to be the prime time for things to get out of control. Our own site uses a series of lieutenant admins to insure 24/7 coverage of moderation. These admins are basically trusted regulars on the site who have an additional power to delete posts. This gives them enough authority to keep things in check, but not so much authority that they can usurp the website.

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  36. I guess it is time for a pause in silver and gold. Yes, only a pause. EUR/USD is up another 0,35% today and crossed 1,45 during the session. CHF/USD up over 1% for the day.
    Nothing has changed.

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  37. Turd and Tyler should buy an island!!

    Zerohedge.com Valuation $5.14 Million

    http://bizinformation.org/us/www.zerohedge.com

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  38. Turd... I ran a large community for about 3 years.. I beg you to either ban them yourself or give admins the ability to ban such posters.

    its draconian, it will make some people complain, but in the long run, its best for all of us. this is not a free world, its your blog/website please police it

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  39. Great post Turd.

    Thank you... I've been itching to raze Vamoose all day, but since I don't post that often, discretion got the better of me.

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  40. Chin Music...Westport Innovations is on my watchlist and it's the future IMO.
    Crude will never go away but the LNG is only a matter of time before it becomes the new normal as far as combustion engines go.

    Good call on bringing Westport to our attention.
    I hope for Boone Pickens sake that he lives long enough to see his goal realized. The man is common sense personified.

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  41. On days like today, I always feel better when I buy me some physical.

    Just did. :)

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  42. TF,
    Something special is happening here. They would not be trying to bust our ass if it wasn't.

    You've helped a lot of people. This site confirms what many of us have believed for a long time. So stay the coarse.

    We'll all be sharing a cold one by the end of the week.

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  43. It's OEX week! Buy gold/silver on sale. Call option writers of the to big to fail banks had to collude this week and knock down exploding commodities.. Exploding commodities of hot money doled out by the fed to primary dealers to deploy before the dollar hits the toilet. Today we got more QE POMO. Schedule here: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html#
    It hasn't ended and off to the races the commodities go with gold/silver being some top hot money inflow winners this QE 4th round. As global titanic fiat paper monies sink, devalue against hard assets, mainly gold/silver real money. It's your responsibility to make sure you're not even on the ship of fools; PAPER MONIES BACKED BY NO HARD ASSET. http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html#

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  44. Hi Guys,

    Busy day at work but thought I'd stop in and say howdy (don't worry I own the place so I'm not robbing anyone of their cash while I type away...)

    Given the troll traffic lately and the FUD (Fear Uncertainty and Doubt) they create I thought y'all might appreciate this article - well worth the read to keep things in perspective:

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/4/12_Richard_Russell_-_Buy_Pullbacks_in_Gold_%26_Ignore_the_Top_Callers.html

    I should also remind everyone that Vamoose (our good guy/bad guy troll all wrapped up in one persona) is right about a few things - well at least one thing - be cautious of group think and do what you think is right at all times. Even good guys like the bunch that frequent this board can get caught up in it.

    Keep an eye on the fundamentals and buy the dips.

    PS - if I had Turds money I'd buy more :-) LOL!

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  45. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  46. Well folks, it's finally warming up here in the northern Rockies and I'm not going to be posting much until probably sometime in August. I put a post on my blog if you want to read it that talks a little bit about it and some final investing thoughts if you're curious, but basically invest for conflict.

    I just wanted to say this is my favorite site and you guys all rock. Like TF said, ignore the trolls and enjoy this place for what it is - 100% kick ass.

    Yukon

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  47. I wouldn't be surprised if we see another pullback in silver tonight/tomorrow. Looking at the chart we are still well above the Sept+ trendline and today touched the Feb+ trend line. All in all I'd say things are looking quite healthy and that this small pullback is confirmation that the long term trend is intact and we are far from a bubble or blowoff top.

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  48. Wow. Lots of reading to catch up on today :)
    My eyes are burning.

    Interview rocked (or was it me??)
    No way I'm not getting this job.
    Good for all of you, as there will be less of me on this board :)
    But we'll see.

    Silver up,down,all around. Whatever. $40 is not "crushed", looks good to me. Stink bid 39.25 not triggered. Also good.

    ALMOST worth it for silver to be down to also see all the stock indexes down too. I love it. Netflix can burrrrrrrn.

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  49. Excellent post, and thank you very much for addressing the issue. I think humour (can't help myself Chin Music) has to be okay, though.

    Mister - as to swearing, and yes, Turd is obviously making a point by doing so himself, it has nothing to do with being puritanical - it is just that you should be able to make your point without doing so, and it is a clear sign of trolling. But Nikki and I are both correct in associating foul language with unpleasant people in general. Go ahead and swear all you want, but that isn't the kind of board this usually is, and I for one greatly appreciate it. When things are getting nasty, asking people to show respect for each other seems only sensible. And at the end of your comment, you ask me not to tell you to f off? But why not, if we are all adults?

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  50. Folks,

    Lets stop the debate Vamoose started over lowering food costs to MENA by beating down commodities.

    The EE can PRINT money for goodness sake. THAT's how they would do it. Just print it and GIVE them the the money, maybe through international banksters to hide the money trail. I believe they CREATED this conflict to benefit their pocketbook.

    Read Smedley Butler's "War is a Racket". Major General Butler was a two time recipient of the Medal of Honor. Most people who merit this award DIE in the process. At the end of his career, he realized that ALL the conflicts he was in were designed to BENEFIT the EE. These sadistic criminals are BEHIND this conflict.

    Read War is a Racket online FREE!

    http://www.scuttlebuttsmallchow.com/racket.html

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  51. Little love for trolls these days, i quit.

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  52. Thanks for the insightful posts on the ME, Mr. Diplocat.

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  53. good post.

    anyways someone a while back had asked about hedging via vxx and i forgot another hedge i am using that i like...keep in mind this is a hedge and i expect it to lose 90-100% of full value(or i hope)

    i buy OTM FAZ (triple inverse short financial) calls on days when financials do very well. the theory is that if the markets should fall again, either due to japan fears, decreased earnings next quarter, mena war, etc, financials will prob get whacked with the commodities.

    basically it is a very "crude" way of being long pm and short banks.

    best thing to do is buy pm or miner on down days and buy FAZ calls on big up days. btw for those that simply want to short the financials, pls note that buying shares of FAZ is a horrible way to do it in long-term though for (somewhat) esoteric reasons

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  54. Well said Turd.

    It is important to think about how to filter the BS from good although possibly opposing information.

    This is no different then Pimco inviting outside speakers to attend their investment meetings. Group think, which leads to only one direction does not work in a multi dimensional world.

    By the way, to value the site based upon how many of us visit is only one way to look at value. Take the cumulative profit/losses of the blog community, based upon your observations and community think, is another.

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  55. @ Swampfox

    Yeah, Vamoose might be loud and a bit weird in his "Saudis' food price" thinking but quite different from this "Dollar will be fine" Trinity troll. A pause from time to time to check the over-enthusiasm in the market is a healthy thing, so long you don't over-do it. :-)

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  56. Diplocat...Good stuff from you regarding MENA.

    The only thing I can add (and it's obvious) is that we are watching the death of old monarchies dating back to post and pre WW2 times.
    The partitioning of the MENA world by the old colonial powers post WW2 and the establishment of the newer Western slanted monarchies is going to be a thing of the past in pretty short order.
    Saudi Arabia is the wildcard and lynchpin IMHO.
    The disintegration of the alliance between the U.S. and SA will be world changing in my view.
    The Saudis will go where ever the stable money and economies are and where they aren't going to badgered how they traditionally have treated their citizens. I'm pretty sure they have tired of the U.S. and now openly resent us.
    The reconfiguration of MENA is not going to be pleasant. Quite the understatement.

    I could be way off base on this but thats how I view it.

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  57. DarkPurpleHaze

    oh good ... the arena I am most comfortable with is silver and gold but I am trying to branch out a bit ... reading some of Yukon's perspectives and watching Turd do oil plays has gotten me to try and broaden my scope ... I love silver and it will probably be my best girl though ... please post on Westport in the future if you get more insight ... I just hope I will see those as I can't always follow all posts and go back and read everything, although today I was able

    Luv all you on here

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  58. As Jim Rickards put it in a recent interview: Global paper fiat currencies, are like the Titanic after its hit the ice berg. There is some refuge, over the time they all race to zero worth, but eventually; all people holding the best of all the worst fiat monies end up in the stern. It following all the rest down as well in the end.
    As global titanic fiat paper monies sink, devalue against hard assets, mainly gold/silver. You don't want to be crowded into the stern with remaining bag holders of Titanic sinking fiat monies. All steel ships sink when the air is let out. All fiats sink when governments let out the buying power of their currency. Like the FRN/USD tied to nothin but hopium it retains value. It won't. It sinks and all those holding it as an opiate to never never land sink with it. What else would you expect from a government which allows its banks to mark all assets to fantasy!! It's an illusion which disappears. Buy physical gold/silver. Bye bye dollar!!

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  59. What is AGA that TF refers to?

    I can never find (or remember) where the abbreviations are.
    I am so abbreviated out at this point.

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  60. Pailin - glad to hear it went so well. Always odd to have to sell yourself. You obviously missed a day of volatility in the markets as well as here in Turdistan.

    Honestly, every time I checked silver today, except once, it has been at almost exactly 40 - this time it was 40.02!

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  61. @Letey Petey: Same here.. Couldnt make up my mind though... gold or silver??? So I bought both.. Now I am feeling much better.

    @Turd: As one of you lite duty posters who has been here from nearly day one. Thanks! Thanks for keeping me sane when the market was trying to get me to unload. Thanks for keeping me smiling when I didn't unload and the market whipsawed right back and then took off. Thanks for creating a community of caring investors who don't mind letting the "little guy" hang out with the big dogs and help protect my families assets.

    Michael

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  62. Holy moly! Go away for a bit and it's a few hundred posts, new thread, and silver's leveling off at 40ish. Whoops, lost a couple of days. BFD BTFD.

    Ditto what Pining said a couple hours ago. ;-)

    And regarding Michael Ruppert - he's been there and done that and has put himself on the line. What I continually fail to understand is this: so many commentators, pundits, bloggers, etc. seem to think there is a way to avoid the controlled collapse of paper currencies. Seems to me that the financial debacle IS a large part of the Plan, and that all evidence is that it's on course. My only confusion is the state of the euro, because I had thought that toast long before the USD. Now (unless a grey swan appears over the skies of Europe) that appears not to be the case. Ah, the plans of mice and men...

    The other Michael

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  63. @Chin Music,

    The whole eastern europe drives cars on natural gas, for example in Poland they have 60% cars on it. Gasoline is ~7.5$ for a gallon, but natural gas is ~3.5$
    American cars drive pretty much the same, but small engine european cars on natural gas suck a lot.

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  64. April 20th is a favorite of TPTB Things like the bp well blowing out...ruby ridge, waco,
    oklahoma city, and ect. I am watching carefully for another 4/20 experience...No not a cannibus experience..

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  65. Turd, I've recently been too tied up with tawdry details to post frequently but have been lurking. Being a Day One guy, I had to step up to say Damn the Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead! We attack.

    Fuck the trolls. But mostly, ignore 'em.

    Let's all just stay focused on the things of value that we've built Turd Town around. Refuse to let yourselves be goaded into taking bait that only consumes time, skews good discussion, and obscures the lead Turd sets in his commentaries. We're way better than the AGA's and Dbags, so just let it go and immediately bring the discussion back to where it belongs. We keep that up, the trolls will look for an easier mark.

    As always: thank you Turd. Don't let the trash get you down Brotha.

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  66. Michael...I'm not sure of this but I was "Michael" in the very beginning when I started to post until I saw your "Michael"

    So that's why this Michael is now DPH.
    Soooo...it looks like you are the only Michael standing.
    ( I just wrote my real name wayyyyy too many times)

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  67. Hello - Can anyone poke any holes in the following line of thinking, either from a trading or macro perspective?

    Have been long AGQ all along as a way of getting leverage on a self-directed IRA account. I remain focused on the commodity / "end of the experiment" vs. trying to pick individual miners with operational risk, etc. Plan to keep working this position all the way up, building until fully invested and trimming back with stops whenever we pull back from a big run up. Last few days have been tolerable - net up Friday through today and only stopped out of 20% of the peak position from last week.

    Here's the real question / idea with that as context: What about building a side position in a leveraged bear bond fund (say TMV) as an offset to whatever gets thrown at us over the next couple of months. If QE (in whatever name) gets continued without interruption, silver almost has to keep a strong line up. Even if bonds don't go down because of the QE, it's hard to see huge rate downside from here. They'll have to throw a lot at this to keep rates flat to slightly down.

    If the alternative scenario that some have suggested occurs (stated stop in QE, even blindside token rate increase, make everyone beg for QE resumption in the fall, etc.), a leveraged short long bond bet should make a nice consolation prize to any short-term damage in my silver position.

    Hope that all makes sense - would welcome any flaws in the logic - Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  68. DPH,

    AGA stans for anti gold a-hole as far as I can tell

    ReplyDelete
  69. Chiming in on vxx.

    I'm of the opinion that vxx is a very bad hedge because it suffers the same contango issues of uso, ung, etc.

    It's much easier to open a futures account and hold the actual vix and not suffer these roll over problems. The Vix and More blog is a very good source for info on trading volatility.

    Vix and More

    If you can't open a futures account for whatever reason, then I would say TVIX is a better option than VXX during times of uncertainty.

    ReplyDelete
  70. OMG...what does AGA mean? The suspense!
    Hope I'm not one whatever it is.

    ReplyDelete
  71. But pekar only Trader talk! My canned bacon is due in tomorrow and I am making the biscuits tonight. Wanted to tell everyone whether it is good or not. Does canned bacon for barter count as Trader talk?

    ReplyDelete
  72. Whew! Definitely not one of those (AGA)
    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  73. I hope I get added to your list of Douche bags some day

    ReplyDelete
  74. Big thanks to you, Turd, and to the rest of the good people that post here. I've read here since day one, though I'm not prone to posting much anywhere, for my own reasons. I really enjoy everyone here just the same:)

    I just wanted to offer a few friendly suggestions for your new site...

    Pick a few of the most level-headed regulars and mod them. Give them the power to simply delete the true troll comments. I would recommend only deleting the comments that lack respect without censoring too hard and getting delete happy.

    You also might want to consider a trial forum with limited access(within the forum) that new members will have to prove their worth and introduce themselves before they graduate and add to the overall discussion. This could help in preventing the trolls from invading and assing the place up.

    I'll admit I kinda enjoy destroying trolls with words, but I prefer an environment where we all have mutual respect for each other and our opinions. Much more productive, too.

    Thanks to everyone here and keep up the good work:)

    PS.. I might even join the new site when I'm back home from mining/prospecting.

    DDT

    ReplyDelete
  75. Thanks for your insight and work, anyone that reads regularly surely benefits. Build the site and ignore the trolls, any reader with half a brain will also.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Turd, great post.

    Any thoughts on the May futures expirations? First position day is April 29th..that's just 13 more trading days. Do you think we will see another big run up in silver like we did in February? I haven't heard any more talk about hedge funds standing for delivery to force cash premiums out of the shorts.

    ReplyDelete
  77. Good point swampfox, I am leery of a group think and how it can cloud an otherwise critical mind. Contrary points can be healthy, much like a dip in the market ;)
    Yes the trolls are coming out from time to time now that the blog has become more popular but we can all choose to just skip to the next post when we see the trolls names at the top of a post. We all have this power, it is one I exercise on here regularly to ensure I don't feed them.

    ReplyDelete
  78. thanx XTY. Didn't "sell" too much, was just myself and that's not so bad :)

    Still holding 40. And that's wonderful.
    Now let's see what sort of foolishness CFTC has in store for us.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Portfolio Assistance.

    A friend who has been a currency trade for years wants into the PM stocks - this is really a good time now before we get the inevitable leg up.

    So here is what I sent to him - you can fill in your own blanks.
    =====================

    PORTFOLIO Possibility

    30% of Portfolio - Least Speculative should see and slow but steady returns - 5-12% per year.
    - PHYS - Sprott Gold
    - TGLD - a precious metals mutual fund - Operated by John Hathaway a significant player like an Eric Sprott in statue.

    30% Moderate Speculation - 15-25% growth per year - Large cap mining stock
    - AEM - Agnico Eagle
    - SLW - Silver Wheaton
    - PAAS - Pan Am Silver

    40% Most Speculative Junior Miner stocks - could be prime take-over potential by the big boys - that would be very profitable.
    - AG - First Majestic
    - GLP - Great Panther
    - AAU - Almaden
    - XG Extorre

    ===============

    Hang tough Turd!

    Time and Place - StanR

    ReplyDelete
  80. Sweet, naming & shaming.
    If that doesn't run them off at least it will help us noobs to recognize & ignore them.
    Suggestion, on the new site have a poster rating system so that the older reliable hands will be easier to recognize.
    Information is power and the good people here are empowering others to take control of their future.
    ~Seek and ye shall find.~

    ReplyDelete
  81. DarkPurpleHaze said...
    What is AGA that TF refers to?

    I can never find (or remember) where the abbreviations are.
    I am so abbreviated out at this point.

    I'm sorry that I don't know either but here is a suggestion for when someone steers you/me to the abbreviation list.

    Copy and paste it to something like MS Word ... before copying type at the top of the Word page "Abbreviations" or whatever will tell you what the document contains. Then underneath what you have typed paste ... when you hit save it will give you a save window with the name inserted that you typed ... accept that and wahla ...

    ReplyDelete
  82. @stanR

    Excellent choice with Almaden.

    Why would you expect physical to slow down to 5-12% when the last ten years have been about 20%?

    ReplyDelete
  83. @Diplocat

    A belated thank you for your response.

    Oil and gold are the two bedrock currencies and directly influence each others' values. We all need to understand how things are changing in MENA. Change means disruption of previous patterns.

    Thanks for your insights.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Nice Topic Turd.

    Bob Chapman constantly gives the advice, not to trade the markets. He has long experience.

    Today on King world News: Richard Russell said...

    " I have never come across anyone who has successfully called tops or who has successfully traded in-and-out of the metals. "
    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/4/12_Richard_Russell_-_Buy_Pullbacks_in_Gold_%26_Ignore_the_Top_Callers.html

    Anyone have different ideas ?
    Personally I am long since 2009 and don´t trade, just stay long.

    ReplyDelete
  85. @Dark Purple, Chin

    Anti Gold A$$h**

    ReplyDelete
  86. Oh boy, I hope this comment section doesn't turn out to be a bunch of cheerleading pantsies. You know, contrarian opinions have some intrinsic value. I don't think vamoose was entirely out of line and offered a valid scenario; the other Trinity Blue caracter, well all least she is at the very least funny. I for one welcome those entries as long as they offer something to think about.

    ReplyDelete
  87. I hope everyone saw this today. This made me pissed. Angry. Furious. ****sucker banksters.

    http://ca.news.yahoo.com/big-banks-government-backed-feds-hoenig-20110412-112137-434.html

    ReplyDelete
  88. No the markets aren't rigged at all...silver trading roughly where it was on Friday and SLW is down 10% makes perfect sense to me!!
    Starting to make me think that I should just get more physical rather than playing in this horse**** market.

    ReplyDelete
  89. old Navy

    now I gotta figure out what A$$h** means

    (ignor me ... I can't help myself today .. ha)

    ReplyDelete
  90. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  91. @Selfish Man

    This question is at the heart of our problems. There is currently no separation of bank & state. If you have not read "13 Bankers" I recommend it.

    ReplyDelete
  92. Chin

    You are never one to be ignored! :)

    ReplyDelete
  93. @OLDNAVY:

    Ohh, I am well aware of that. For some reason, when I read that article, it just hit me like a freight train that one of those Oxford boys boldly comes out and says that. They are not even hiding anymore. Anything with words "Money", "Bank" or "Depression" in title of the book by Murray Rothbard will give you an idea. I recommend :)

    What can I do personally besides not having an account with a major bank? Dont small local banks have accounts with larger ones? Isnt having an account at a local bank almost the same as having it at a major one?

    ReplyDelete
  94. Safe banks: credit unions and The Bank of North Dakota. Only state run bank in the nation. Not FDIC insured AND runs a surplus. Hmmmmm

    http://motherjones.com/mojo/2009/03/how-nation%E2%80%99s-only-state-owned-bank-became-envy-wall-street

    ReplyDelete
  95. xty, are you asking Turd not to swear, too? I disagree that use of profanity is a sign of trolling. Many prominent regulars here are in the habit. And where ought the be line drawn? Are hell and damn acceptable? Ass? What about sh!t and f#ck? Is it less offensive when symbols are substituted for letters?

    I honestly do make an effort to limit my swearing here. But I really think the matter is of some silliness, especially given Turd's own use of colorful language. Personal attacks are a separate issue, as is trolling. But language policing?

    ReplyDelete
  96. A hypothesis I am looking at to trade...

    Many miners have taken a good 10+% hit the last few days, and everyone thinks they are underperforming for the last several months. Most of my miners reported realized silver price of ~22-24 and gold price of ~1200-1250 in q4 2010. Since start of new quarter, average silver price is around $33-4, and gold $1390-1400. I would expect a lot of "buy the rumor" before earnings reports at the start of May, and if they don't move before earnings, they almost must move after earnings. I expect big moves by May options expiration, but will sell at least a week before they expire. I am particularly looking at AUY, SLW as potential options plays because I like the pricing on AUY options (seem cheap compared to potential move; I bought AUY calls for May yesterday, definitely one day earlier than I would have preferred) and like the upside on SLW options (seem expensive, but I could see SLW moving up near 50 around earnings in early May; I almost pulled the trigger on SLW options this PM and am sure I will regret it when it likely gaps up on tomorrows open).

    A hypothesis for long term investment...

    What intrigues me the most is HL. It HAS been a dog. In October, it was priced around 7$ and now it is worth 9 after the beating it has taken the last 2 months and the last 2 days. Since HL was 7, silver has gone from 20-40. Margin has gone from maybe 24 in 2010 to probably 38 (36 average price and -2$ production cost in HL bookkeeping) in first quarter this year. At a +12$ margin on 2.5 million oz, I expect q1 net income for shareholders to jump from 30million last quarter to at least 50 million, if not 60 million which would be an increase of 60-100% in earnings in one quarter. The company is sitting on almost enough cash to completely cover its litigation expenses, plus the liabilities for the basin are tax deductible so the ~450 million hit is only going to take ~300 million off the books, which by my understanding is less than their cash holdings - they won't be paying off the litigation for years. HL might be my replace SLW as my favorite silver play. I still do not have HL in my portfolio, but you can bet I will buy some in the very near future.

    do your own due diligence
    MHT

    ReplyDelete
  97. Okay, I'm probably one of the more guilty ones re: feeding trolls, so, hand on my heart, no more. Promise. And sorry about that Turd.

    In the future, it's just a *gaze* to myself.

    ReplyDelete
  98. Selfish Man

    I hear ya. Small banks will get thrown under the bus but the Big Six are TBTF.

    I thought it was encouraging, however, that those words came from someone like Hoenig. We need more and more public statements like that and we need to make the break-up of the big six banks a political issue. We have 40 years of pro-bank legislation to roll back.

    Ask young ScottJ88 what he thinks we should do.

    ReplyDelete
  99. Turd, first post to your blog, but have been lurking for a while.

    Great work, and THANK YOU for your efforts!

    ReplyDelete
  100. Oh, and xty? I do luv ya. =)

    ReplyDelete
  101. I am posting quite late since TF made his "right on" comment re trolls - income tax prep time for me.
    But I want to put in my compliments to Turd on the value of this site & the stress relief it can give to some of us less experienced individuals. Hey, I wasn't born last night either but I find the info & dialogue on here so accurate & diverse & most often offered for one to consider. No one except for trolls tries to ram anything down anyopne's throat and for that I am most grateful.

    Please keep your vitual work going Turd.

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  102. Trolls are the ultimate badge of honor, Turd. If you weren't making an impact, they wouldn't be here.

    I'm buying every dip that comes my way and holding every precious ounce. No troll is going to make me think twice about it.

    ReplyDelete
  103. Silver holding critical support above $40!

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  104. Prize Fighter,

    That's an idea that's catching on...

    http://data.opi.mt.gov/bills/2011/billhtml/HJ0025.htm

    Yukon

    ReplyDelete
  105. Wait - I started to catch up, but when I got to this I had to rush to comment.

    Johnboatcat - did you really order canned bacon? That is totally awesome if true. I would very much like to know what it looks like as well as what it tastes like. This blog contains so much information my head is going to explode.

    ReplyDelete
  106. MHT

    may I comment on HL ... I have played HL in the past and made very good money off her doing so ... looking at the charts since the beginning of 2011 she has made lower highs and lower lows and the trend is down ... way back in the beginning of November of 2010 she left a small gap ... I realize gaps don't always get filled but the percentages generally weigh in the favor of fill ... so with the way she's trending I still look for that gap to fill ... caveat to this is I must of had a dozen chrystal balls in my life and I broke em' all ... ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  107. @Selfish Man - +1455 re: Rothbard!

    I highly recommend "History of Money and Banking in the United States: The Colonial Era to World War II"

    I know....shocker from someone who is a Mises fan ; )

    ReplyDelete
  108. Re: banks that are TBTF. Some possibilites to consider are:

    1. Returning to state-chartered banks to keep them manageable in size and more sensitive to their public as well as (theoretically I grant you) subject to more public oversight;

    2. Putting the former walls back up that separated banks from other types of financial institutions to eliminate either inherent conflict of interests and/or the ability to execute quasi-illegal transactions, e.g., why the hell does JPM have a commodities desk?;

    3. Implement licensing. Eliminate all current bank directors from the big 5 or 6 from working in banking via licensing, i.e., all bank executives who took government loans to bail out their banks and/or gave their employees bonuses prior to paying back their loans should be prohibited from maintaining a license to practice banking because they've already shown that they ran their banks into bankruptcy. Epic FAIL!

    These are just 3 things that come to mind. I'm sure there are many other ways to improve our banking system.

    ReplyDelete
  109. Yukon, You'd think 90+ years of proof would do it. Now the real cattle-men show the "all-hat no-cattle" pundits how it's done. (Big, yellow madhatters aside ;)

    ReplyDelete
  110. Mister - I'm thinking you didn't really read my comment - I said nothing about language policing - in fact, I said you could swear all you wanted, and I specifically mentioned Turd's swearing as a poke at me. Sorry to sound stiff, not meaning too - I think we basically agree, save the swearing for when you need it, but don't use it in personal attacks and ad hominem arguments. And I love you too - even if you are sometimes an a**hole - runs, ducking for cover.

    What's a 'pantsy'?

    ReplyDelete
  111. Turd,
    I love this blog. It is absolutly the best.
    You are the Man! Good advice from you. I have noticed all these dipshits over on Harvey and SGS's blog too. I thinkyou are right. Ignore them and the problem will probably go away.
    Thanks for all your time and hard work you put into this blog. You are a true professional.
    Brian

    ReplyDelete
  112. XTY and Johnbocat,

    Just followed a tasting review on canned bacon. They decided if things get THAT bad, the next best option would be to hunt down the neighborhood squirrel.

    ReplyDelete
  113. On the new site, try to have an "ignore poster" button, so when the trolls arrive, we only have to read one post, then we never see another post by that particular troll.

    ReplyDelete
  114. Irene - I think #2 is crucial. What a disastrous web was created when those walls were taken down:

    "2. Putting the former walls back up that separated banks from other types of financial institutions to eliminate either inherent conflict of interests and/or the ability to execute quasi-illegal transactions, e.g., why the hell does JPM have a commodities desk?;"

    Why indeed - it is such an obvious conflict of interest it boggles the mind until you remember who made the rules. How did such corrupt people end up with so much power. Is it just that people like to be asleep? I guess it really is sheep, wolves and us, the sheep dogs, trying to keep the wolves at bay.

    ReplyDelete
  115. @Robert Leroy

    Yeah I totally agree- I low-balled the gains in my mind - Like TLGLD was up over 24% last year and for a mutual fund that was the best out there. And Almaden has been a great performer - although more volatile past few months, driving me crazy. They are also working a fertile diamond area on one of their holdings.

    It is probably best just to double the gain expectation I made - what do you think?

    StanR

    ReplyDelete
  116. http://www.internet-grocer.net/squirrel.htm

    someone mention canned squirrel?

    ReplyDelete
  117. Anybody out there holding ETFs? If so, you really should take a peak at this ZH article. Scary stuff.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/are-etfs-really-safe-interview-andrew-bogan

    ReplyDelete
  118. Turd,

    Nice smackdown. I love your style. Keep up the good work my friend. Gold and silver are in great shape no matter what these pathetic trolls try to put forth.

    Aloha,
    Bay of Pigs

    ReplyDelete
  119. johnboatcat
    xty

    Here's hoping we get a comprehensive review of that canned bacon! If it's the same stuff I had(Yoder's),which I think it must be because I don't know of any others, then I can tell you that basically it's a lot like that precooked bacon you can buy in the grocery store, except that it's rolled up in waxed paper and stuffed into a can. The expiration dates are much longer than the stuff at the store (+1 for preppping the bunker!). It seems expensive, but, from memory now, it seemed to me to be roughly the equivalent of about 3# of fresh bacon, so not as horribly expensive after all.

    I had some cans with something of a "chemical" taste, where I had to give them a rinse under the sink with warm water before use, while others were quite yummy as is. Used the vast majority of it in fried potatoes, which I like with bacon and onions. :)

    ReplyDelete
  120. xty says "#2 is crucial". Well, yeah! It IS Turd's Blog after all! lol

    ReplyDelete
  121. Trollercoaster

    Even tho' your mother never loved you, I do.

    Ms Pat

    ReplyDelete
  122. geez....I still keep getting blocked all the time from being able to post my posts....now I seem to have gotten that one in....I dont understand

    ReplyDelete
  123. @StanR

    For physical I don't see why not.

    ReplyDelete
  124. “Silver is the most dangerous commodity to be without when the market moves,” he repeated in a recent release to dealers, collectors and investors.

    Revels said U.S. silver coins, especially silver eagles and dollars, offer the highest potential return. He also cautioned investors to avoid foreign gold issues such as Krugerrands and Austrian mint issues.
    http://www.ocala.com/article/20110409/ARTICLES/110409678/-1/entertainment02?p=1&tc=pg&tc=ar
    .......................................................
    Of course your home grown US Mint Eagles will carry the most return as paper cash becomes trash. Utah leading the way to sound money and 12 other states to legal tender US Mint eagles as well. A back up plan to the shrinking paper ponzi fiat dollar. I say buy all the silver US Mint eagles you can while under 50 benron bucks. I've got the Utah legislature sayin so with 12 other state legislatures lined up saying so as well.

    ReplyDelete
  125. ok.now it seems to be working. All Ive been wanting to say, since I'm a newbie here is that I really appreciate this great web blog by Turd and wanted to say thank you for that. and I hope I can post a few comments if I have anything meaningful to add

    ReplyDelete
  126. Does anyone have an opinion on the pros and cons of short ETFs like SDS and SRS? It's hard to ignore their returns during the '08 crash - SRS was at $1199 a share on Nov 20, 2008.

    ReplyDelete
  127. @afrum

    Why should krugerrands and Austrian mint issues be avoided? That article gives no explanation.

    ReplyDelete
  128. I know there are some youTubes out there of people opening up their cans of bacon, so you can search that out if you are really interested. I can't remember if they are favorable or not. More in the vein of "This is the freakiest thing I've ever heard of!!", I think.

    ReplyDelete
  129. Thomas:

    when your posts disappear is it when we're on the second page with over 200 posts or can you recall?

    ReplyDelete
  130. hi Jake....no I think the problem is about my sign in process. Something like the google blog sign in thing.... but it worked this time. I just didnt want the problem to be something like being shut out due to someone thinking I'm a newbie troll or something. but it seems like its working ok now.

    ReplyDelete
  131. Turd: Great post. Funny how none of the names you mention come as a surprise. I for one would be more than willing to subscribe to the new site. I hit this thing several times a day as much for your posts as for the back and forth in the comments. It would be much simpler and less time consuming to go through the posts without having to figure which ones are simply banter between a troll and a legitimate poster. You could weed out the trolls and banish them from the site. Truly, they waste valuable time and hijack the thread. Anybody who has spent any time on this site who hasn’t benefited financially from the advice presented simply isn’t paying attention. If it isn’t worth a minimum of an ounce of silver to belong let them make a hardship appeal to you and you make the call. I’d still keep the “donate to the turd” button for those days when things just go so well you feel like “tipping the dealer”. Count me in for whatever you do. FTT (Fu*k the trolls)

    ReplyDelete
  132. Mamma said there'd be days like this. My stock sheet is a sea of red. NEM was the only stubborn holdout that managed to stay green all day. Up half a percent. Funny, that looks huge on a day like today.

    But there was a silver lining in all the carnage. My "come to Pappa" buy order placed a few weeks back was hit. I am now the proud owner of ISVLF.

    Anybody got news yet on the CFTC meeting? Another charade?

    ReplyDelete
  133. Great silver technical analysis by Endless Mountain.

    Where is support and resistance?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxcqrUnBEDo&feature=feedu

    ReplyDelete
  134. Oh I'm so misunderstood. But I don't mind :-)

    Look. Your silver will go up and down and up and down and up and down and up and down. Trade well and you'll make money. Be happy.

    I'll throw you a bone. Silver at no lower than $39.65 tonight. Will get to just short of $41 tomorrow, then back below $40 before creeping back up. Will get near to $42/42.50 on Friday. Next week, it'll go towards and probably through $43/$44.

    Three quick points:

    1. Mr Gold Hamster thingy: on reflection, no I don't think I'll ask you to join our 'community'. We think you're a gold-plated arse.

    2. We don't have a 'Ruprecht'. We do have a 'Rupert', however, who we now call Ruprecht to everyone's amusement.

    3. The price of mining securities is nowt to do with us, chuckie egg.

    Bigger kiss,

    Trinster

    ReplyDelete
  135. The Misses told me about a new Buy Sell Shop in Town. Not really a Pawn shop, but kinda...?
    Anyway, He has a nice amount of Silver and some smaller Gold Bullion. I complimented the guy that it was good to see a Local Shop offer such things. To Which He replied "Yes Good to have a coin/ dealer back in town"
    He's a young guy like 35ish, totally engrossed in his 'putor... didn't really want to talk, but was not rude.
    Prices seemed up there, any Morgan he had was @ least $45. Had some Fractional Gold Eagles for Spot+ $20.
    Mentioned being at antique show last summer to him and coin guy wanted to buy my Morgans BAD for $20! Right.... This guy says Yeah they new Silver was about to Go up huh? Hes says "I think it may double from here"
    Anyway, That's my report from the street!

    ReplyDelete
  136. With regards to the zerohedge article on ETFs, this is a site to check on the short interest in various ETFs:

    http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=slv

    ReplyDelete
  137. TF,

    Instead of an ignore or filter button.

    I will rather prefer that you directly label the troll yourselves.

    We will trust you judgment in identifying all trolls and potential ones to be.

    ReplyDelete
  138. six toes-

    Mmmmmm, canned squirrel, tastes just like..... well, it pretty much tastes like canned squirrel..... :-p

    And how about those miners? I'm starting to think the big gains of last fall were just a fluke, a chance alignment of the equities and the metals both going up that boosted the miners as well. Now that we seem to alternate between bad days for the metals and bad days for the market (or both), the miners just don't have a chance. Thinking hard about moving it all to straight plays on PM prices, direct or leveraged ETFs.

    ReplyDelete
  139. Eric#1- Yep, the same ones you told us about. Got a Sampler Pack, butter and cheese to try as well. We go native for three months each year on a sailboat. Good survival training as we anchor out 99% of the time. Catch a lot of our food. Make our own power. Catch and filter rain water. I bet canned bacon biscuits will go great with rum and rain water. A sprig of sunshine on the side of the glass. Leave 6/1.

    That's were the name comes from. John's boat is a catamaran.

    ReplyDelete
  140. @ Robert Leroy Parker

    Yes, the comment about krugs and austrians seem to come out of left field. Might just be zenophobia. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  141. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  142. Trin Ble: +1!!!

    that's how I see it too, except for the overnight dip to 39.65

    And your Friday week call of 43 - 44 may be conservative

    I would suggest a breakout in AU as well to challenge the 1500 level

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  143. There are two canned bacons that I know of: Yoder's and Tactical Bacon (http://www.outdoor-sports-store.com/item.aspx?PID=171584&w=7QApsGY%2fh08%3d), which has the badassest can in the history of survival foodstuffs.

    I just can my own bacon in a pressure canner, one pound per quart jar. Works great.

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  144. Rob Parker: Home grown minted coins are more recognizable to home grown folks in a currency crisis. Whatever nation you may live in when a paper currency fiat crisis hits? You should be loaded up from your nations minted coin for guarantees of purity, rank & file citizens in the street will honor; hence US citizens will honor US MINT EAGLES over other nations mint simply from down home grown recognition in a paper fiat currency crisis the dollar will soon bring upon AmeriCON'd. Take a Panda to china town and you'll do fine if all you've bought is panda's. Loaded with Libertads? Get in your abrams m1 tank and cash them in for monetary store of value in Tijuana! Maple leafs get you all you need in Toronto! Get my point?

    ReplyDelete
  145. "Why should krugerrands and Austrian mint issues be avoided? That article gives no explanation."

    Easy, the guy is from Central Florida. Durn foreign coins. Nobody round here are going to know what they are.

    ReplyDelete
  146. Yep. What afrum said. I even bought some Hobbit gold just in case.

    ReplyDelete
  147. I think I'll repost my original message because it might have some value for folks investing now.
    .................................

    I mentioned that I own a simple portfolio theme. I own 3 sectors . Precious metal miners.Biotech.and some oilers. thats all I own.
    I subscribe exactly to the views of 'Nathan's economic edge blog'. I like coming here and reading what Turd says. I follow Trader Dan's markey views ,and Harvey Organ...and I subscribe to a handful of great newsletters like The golden jackass, casey research, and a few others. I spend all day and all night studying everything . Its 90 % fun. 90% exhausting and 90 % necessary.Ive managed to cut the hours down from 15 to 10.
    Anyway, my favorite and best performing miner has been AG. and it is now ....I think you could call it ..."correcting" ? it is plunging ,hemmoraging like I expected it to do after such a hyperbolic surge over the last several months.
    Logic compels me to think silver spot could do something similar but I am no expert so I dont know.
    I see some folks here who seem a little bitten by the metals fever and they are looking to buy even the slightest 'dips' from this top high zone....and I think this is a tactical mistake. especially since summer is approaching. Casey research is good about advising caution at times like this,dont chase the stocks as they soar, but waiting for a bigger correction. technical analysis shows where these buy zones would be.

    and for AG it shows the 50% fib area , the 50 MA and left shoulder and neckline areas from 20 - 14....with 17 in the middle . Thats where I would consider buying more AG. and its perfectly normal and anticipated that it could take all summer to slide down to this level. the timing would be good. and I look at all my miners with this idea in mind. taking some profits now and into late april and selling whats overbought and watching the summer doldrums take place and looking for the deepest bottoms to rebuy.
    But watching the fundamental events play out ....anything can happen to propel the metals higher...so finding the best bottom may be tricky. and it might not be at summers end. In 2010 the bottom in HUI was february and this year same thing so far.

    Ive had success following the technical analysis thus far.... I might as well stick with it...which means waiting for at least the 38 % fib areas.

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  148. Johnboatcat,

    If I may say...

    You have life figured out quite nice!

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  149. Robert,

    My guess is that the Chatanooga Coins guy said something about the U.S. Mint coins having a nice premium on them and being preferred and somehow it got translated into Krugerands and Philharmonics bad. Think about how little the reporter probably know about coins. They're just all round shiny's to them.

    There's absolutely no reason not to invest in those coins and you can usually do so for a cheaper premium compared to a say an Eagle or Buffalo.

    Yukon

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  150. Won't get a mouse fart from the cftc until index OEX Thursday; all related tickers gld/slv/hui/commods in general taken off the april options board. ctf'n shitters won't say boo until banksters are out and positioned for any official release on position limits; if any!! Holdin my breath and joinin the blue man tour!!

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  151. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  152. Mining shares could serve as a valuable siren on imminent EE raid at least, a canary in the coal mine if you will. I took some of the most risky trade off last Friday when I saw an across board selling off out of the blue. Could have taken a little more off tho but I'd like to keep what Russel said in mind sth like "you don't make big money going in / out of a long term bull market frequently".

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  153. Turd,

    My son had to hi-jack the computer last night to do some homework. I couldn't read any of yours or anyone elses posts when I got home from work.

    I was dead tired from my, heaven on earth, labor job and hit the sack.

    This morning I tried to catch up a bit and saw various posts concerning Vamoose and him being a troll etc.

    First I thought that I didn't need to be protected or warned, or whatever from some of the other folks on your blog.

    I thought that the way they came after him kinda made them suspect.....but I hadn't read all of Vamoose's posts..so what did know.

    Anyway you addressed the things I've been thinking about today while at work. It was a good and IMO timely post.

    I really love reading the views of most of the folks that take the time to share with us.

    Keep it up guys...Good job Turd.

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  154. Until Thurday? I'd expect the red headed bastard children of the paper fiat cartel; gold/silver and related tickers to be woodshedded by the bankster gangsters. After that load up lest we get a black swan? China/Japan says bye to 1 trillion in Tbonds between now & then; dollar flushing!!!!

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  155. johnboatcat

    I think you'll find the hardest part is getting the darn stuff out of the can in the first place. They jam it in there pretty tight.

    Rum and rain water? Alright!
    Reminds me of old backpacking trips with my folks. Brandy, lake water, and a packet of Countrytime lemonade. We called them "Polly Lake Old Fashioned's"

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  156. Poor Hamster doesn't realise that Trin Ble = his idol, Trinity Blue. We switch handles when blocked, donchaknow.

    And we chew tosspots like you up every day, my friend.

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  157. been reading about bacon for about a week and I put on 5 lbs. :-(

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  158. On 3/28 I ordered The Creature From Jekyll Island from Midas Resources to get the free silver Morgan coin deal. The book plus shipping was 31.00 Bernankies and a Morgan on 3/28 was worth around 27.00, so hey, 4 fiats for a book and a coin is a great deal.
    It arrived today, has a very nice quality 1921-O Morgan that is now worth 31.00 clown credits! Free book basically.
    I just went on Midas' site to see if they were still offering it and they are. However now they have upped the price to 41.00, but it's still a good deal...that's only a 10.00 fiat difference to get the book and the coin.
    Just an FYI for all. I already owned and have read the book...I just wanted the coin. Will give my brother the book!

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  159. Bought back into EXK, bought some physical from APMEX, and added a position in PSLV.

    My opinion nothing has changed in the last 2 weeks, not a thing. We have a Cat 7 Nuclear meltdown that is getting worse by the day,$188 billion dollar Deficits, a Debt ceiling that is out of control and a dollar that is weakening by the day. I have not even added in the ME problems.... Holding and adding long and strong.

    Naysayers and weak hands...Step aside.

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  160. Just thinking about someone's comments earlier about getting out of the miners and straight and strictly into physical because of volatility.

    The EE needs to act with some caution here regarding how they manipulate the market. People (the average investor who sees the value in silver and gold)are better able to see a constant and steady run up of silver spot price than they are to see the value of holding good quality miners etc over the long term.

    Creating so much volatility in the mining sector is going to shake weak hands out.... and straight into physical.

    This poses two important problems in terms of supply.

    First problem is you are increasing demand for the actual physical substance because weak hands that want to benefit from the bull market will move from the miners to the bullion.

    Second problem is you will drain capital from the miners pockets. While this may seem minor (no pun intended) if you reduce the capital in a companies pocket that it uses to run and grow it's operations you reduce it's ability to produce the very product that is already in short supply thereby exacerbating the problem.

    The only way for a supply shortage to be solved is to increase production. This way of doing things will not accomplish that. It will simply draw the pain out longer.

    What tangled webs we weave....

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  161. The trolls and naysayers never ask what it takes to bring silver down like it was today. It's become a complete farce. Nothing but shit loads of unbacked paper, massive concentrated shorts with no position limits.

    Harvey Organ explains,

    "Get a load of this next data. The estimated volume today was a totally unheard of 121,269 contracts. This total in oz is 606,345,000 oz of silver. In annual silver production this is about 100% if you exclude China's production. You you include China then it represents 86.6% of annual global silver production in one day. And this bourse is not the biggest in silver, that belongs to the LBMA over in London England.
    The confirmed volume yesterday, the day of the mini-raid was even more earth shattering: 132,213 contracts."

    And piss off hamster. You're a clown.

    Bay of Pigs

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  162. http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

    Courtesy of Mr.Organ

    "The bankers threw the kitchen sink, their bathtubs, their mother in law, everything was thrown in today to keep the precious metals at bay. If anyone needs a definition of the word "chutzpah" you got it today,even though a meeting was convened to discuss position limits etc with a possible implementation of a positive vote, these doorknobs decided to give the royal finger to the commissioners as the bankers continued to perform their criminal acts with unbacked gold and unbacked silver paper.) This is "chutzpah"!!!

    Get a load of this next data. The estimated volume today was a totally unheard of 121,269 contracts.
    This total in oz is 606,345,000 oz of silver. In annual silver production this is about 100% if you exclude China's production. You you include China then it represents 86.6% of annual global silver production in one day. And this bourse is not the biggest in silver, that belongs to the LBMA over in London England.
    The confirmed volume yesterday, the day of the mini-raid was even more earth shattering: 132,213 contracts.
    (however we did have minor switches in these last 2 days)."

    F*&@ing Trolls

    Good Day!I think that about sums it up! Gonna sip a glass of wine, do some epidemiology homework, and wait for this expiry week to end!

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  163. Very proud of my fellow Herd members for not throwing fries to the seagulls just now ;-)

    Bay...Try really hard to ignore "them". I know it's not easy. BTW, your right.

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  164. @Shill
    Don't forget that the "budget deal" could be falling apart too!

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/budget-deal-verge-collapsing

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  165. bay you beat me too it! Oh well I guess great minds do think alike :)

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  166. johnboatcat, that sounds really cool. I would think three months at sea takes some fortitude. Kudos!

    Your post reminded me of the fascinating Dick Proenneke. His, Alone In The Wilderness, film is one of my favorites. Alone in the Wilderness - youtube clip

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  167. After Turd's post on troll. Guess what, the troll is still back !

    But now I know who are on the troll list, and thus am able to mental profile a troll farting off his arse in the forum, when he pulls his troll stance.

    What a day, Turd has made it to be !

    It would be nice, if there can be a "troll badge" assigned or overlay-ed next to the id. Instead of "xxxx said.....", it will read as "xxxx(a troll) said...."

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  168. read what Harvey said again and then check the spot price

    Kinshasha, Ali-Foreman.

    Ali is talking to George during the rope -a-dope. C'mon Gorge, hit me. George, my mama hit me harder than that. George, is that all you got?

    And George thinks: Yeah, that's all I got.

    they're running out of ammunition people

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  169. What good is TA in gold or silver with all this manipulation that goes unchecked daily. If its not the cartel, JPM , the Fed, now we have GS enter the game.I find it amazing that gold and silver have gotten as high as they are now, Just think what they would be at if the CFTC ever did their job.By the way are they supposed to be meeting soon to discuss position limits --what a joke this hearing should be

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  170. Justm2 thank you..Interesting to say the least.

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  171. It seems that they get about a buck or two per take down, but runs right back up. Wack-A-Mole :)

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  172. Here is an interesting article.

    http://townhall.com/columnists/johnhawkins/2011/04/12/5_things_that_will_happen_to_you_when_america_goes_bankrupt/page/full/

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  173. swampfox-

    That was me thinking about changing from miners to physical or AGQ.... all I have to do is compare my accounts, the one with a basket of miners (USAGX mutual fund) finally broke positive on Friday but now it's about 4% under again, while another account with just AGQ bought in mid January (a week or so before Turd's bottom) is now up 60%.... so why stick with the miners? If they essentially "ride the coattails" of gold or silver, with the risk of a bad equity day taking them down, why bother?

    I do have some EXK and GPL, but that's mostly as a lottery ticket, looking for a pop before selling, I don't want to put huge money into a batch of juniors and continually rebalance them.

    So why should I be in miners? Anyone?

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  174. Can't take any credit for being alone. I take a beautiful ballerina who is off for the summer with me. Also a big screen TV, 2 laptops, two cell phones with hot spot, a Notion Ink Adam tablet that you can read in full sunlight and this year a case of canned bacon. LOL

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  175. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  176. Turd, it's fine. The internet is a rough and tumble world and trolls are unavoidable. The beauty is that here, just like on ZH, there are plenty of people smart enough to recognize the trolls. Sometimes the urge to respond to them is hard to ignore, but in the end 'feeding the trolls' by falling for their game is counter productive.

    You've got a good thing going here, but like any other blog or forum, it has a life cycle all its own that nobody can control.

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  177. AGoldhamster said...

    (who cares?)

    Mr. Hamster troll -- The last time you graced us with your words of wisdom, you claimed that gold will exceed 1500 by end of March. Now you show up here mouthing off AFTER silver makes a move that you called it right? And you criticize those that spend too much time on blogs?

    See you next time you get lucky. BTW, where were you BEFORE gold broke through 1440? You were on the sidelines, right?

    You are just a weird guy with a big ego.

    BTW, your avatar looks like Bob Denver with light sensitive glasses. I hope that is some sort of a joke character and not really you.

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  178. Turd reminded us to keep our eyes on USD/JPY. It's moving up, which is good. Its hyperactive "little brother", AUD/JPY, moving up stronger. Might be resumption of risk-on trades?

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  179. Picking up on Harvey's info (and I believe someone posted earlier today - apologies for not remember who!):


    if you look at the volume on the silver spot chart at netdania (or wherever, I suppose) in the 4h or 8h view, today's volume was almost 2x any day since 2/22/11. Pretty amazing, visually. That tells me, too, that the demand is still very strong and were it not for 600,000,000 of imaginary oz sold we'd be well above $40 right now.

    Bastards.

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  180. dpms308: You know what you'll be doing?

    Washing off after a mild dose of radiation?

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  181. Jake,

    That is exactly right. And when this thing breaks (it is finally resolved, and it will be), you might see silver double overnight. There just isn't enough physical to meet these kinds of criminal and fraud ridden imbalances.

    It's simple. The COMEX, SEC and CFTC are clown shows. The people running them have big red noses and wear floppy shoes. They are a national disgrace.

    Bay of Pigs

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  182. Good post Turd.

    The trolls at this site & at other places like Zerohedge are doing nothing more than spewing disinformation and propaganda. They clearly have an agenda & most probably work with the banking industry, the Fed, and the like. If someone really didn't agree with the basic philosophy of a website, why would they continue to visit it & repeatedly make posts? Someone without an agenda would simply think that we are all PM freaks & move on to whatever financial website was more in line with their thinking. This should be a warning to everyone that disinformation & propaganda is running rampant in all forms of media & the source is the EE.

    To all the trolls....

    Go fuck yourselves. Your ridiculous blatant propaganda only reinforces the suspicions that an exponentially growing number of people have towards the banks & government.

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  183. How about getting a Mint to make "Turd Round"
    DS

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  184. Since no one knows the future it would be wise to hold a diversified coin/bullion stash. I'm sure any Mexican would take a libertad on his/her way home.Remember eagles are Gubment Property. Coin melting could be the order of the day under fascist laws. Many are assuming that the person you are buying/trading from knows the different coins, they don't, the trolls will be selling fakes at that point. We are manini but educated,the masses don't have much chance if we are using pm's, anything is better than nothing at that point but I don't believe we will get that far. UTAH's law is confiscation for the uneducated, they will except coins at FACE value.
    Even if that were not true you'd be foolish to give the gub money when you could give them paper.
    Hillsie posted the Jim Rickard's interview (mahalo),which he clears up some QE misconceptions. He states; the Fed only needs to buy (with maturing securities) at the margin to keep interest rates low.....http://rt.com/programs/keiser-report/poverty-wealth-gold-dollar/
    A hui hou malama pono kakou

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  185. Turd:

    With a vBulletin license and a virtual private server, you can run a new forum/blog for around $400 per year. With the traffic you now draw and a donation button in plain site, you'd have enough to run the site easily...and take Mrs Turd out for a steak and lobster once per week.

    https://www.vbulletin.com/order/index.php

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  186. bay: yeah they'll say they fixed it, stopped the spew, all better

    Meanwhile, the pin action is just beginning to express itself. We have at least, at a bare minimum, best case scenario four months, one hundred twenty days to snuff the radiation.
    And after that... who knows.

    Impact on Global GDP? 2%? 25%

    One thing will lead to another, priorities will shift, many will suffer.

    WASS

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  187. Turd, Darling, this is the original Blythe Masters, who has been a steadfast friend since you started this lovely little blog of yours.

    As you well know, I've been quite busy lately--far too busy to read religiously or to comment on your blog. Needless to say I was a bit distressed when I saw my a close facsimile of my moniker pop up in one of your posts, and particularly so given the treatment you accorded the poster.

    Turd, the "blythe" you reference in your post is an impostor. I can assure you, darling Turd, that my attorneys will be looking into this matter and appropriate action will be taken.

    Having said that, the last 48 hours should serve as a reminder to you and your minions that I still own this market. I have unlimited resources and a vast information advantage. The price of paper silver is always going to be precisely what I say it will be. You may be the turd in my sandbox, but you must pay the entry fee.

    If you liked my little short play in SLV just wait. I've only begun to play my cards.

    TTFN Darling,

    Blythe

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  188. SLW would one of that last things I would sell and never for HL. SLW will be giving dividend this year or next according to the CEO's kwn's interview a few weeks back. SLW & UXG are for my money the best that I have found so far.

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  189. AH HAHAHAHAHA!!!!


    F UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU BM!!!!!


    I heart you, Globex+Sydney+Hong Kong!

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  190. Trader Dan explains today action.

    http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

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  191. I picked up some CEF the yesterday to grab a bit more paper gold exposer, since my PHYS just didn't seem to go anywhere. Harvey said that shorting dragged it down. Never owned it before, worth staying in it or is it too manipulated to bother with?
    Anyone?

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  192. uh-oh...another "Blythe" troll has arrived, lol. Or maybe she really is the Wicked Witch herself! Scary.
    Time for a new video??? She's got a crush on the Turd fer sure!

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