Monday, May 9, 2011

1520 & 39.50

Like this morning's post, let's start this thread by reviewing the relevant information from last week. This time, you need to go back and read this.

Of that note, here is the most important section. Again, this was written early last Friday:

"I have a last in July silver of $36.13. Above $37, the new shorts will begin to get squeezed and older (24 hours+) shorts will begin to sense that the fun is over and lock in some profits, thereby adding to the buying pressure. If we've indeed found a bottom, silver may, by Monday, trade back UP near $38-40.

In a traditional bottom, silver would then trade back DOWN toward $35 later next week. At that point we'd have the makings of a solid double bottom. THAT WILL OUR  ENTRY POINT.

If you're not currently long, I would advise you against buying this rally. With a potential short-term upside of $3 vs a downside of $2, its just not a tradable proposition. IF, however, the next week or so plays our as I've described above, the risk:reward will swing dramatically in our favor and we can act decisively then."

Everything is going as planned for us. If you bought the dips last Thursday, the time to take profits would be IF we can approach 1520 and 39.50 tomorrow or Wednesday. Because I see such significant resistance there, I'd expect the PMs to stop and reverse, head lower and form a permanent bottom. By next week, gold would probably trade back down to 1490-1500. Silver could still go all the way down toward 35-36. DO NOT DESPAIR, however. IF this develops as I've projected, those levels would be fabulous entry points that would also coincide with the timing pattern I've been mentioning for about the past three weeks. All in all, I'm extremely confident that this CME/Cartel-induced bloodletting has reached its selling maximum and that happy, fun days are once again just over the horizon.

That's it for now. TF

Very, very nice afternoon action. 39.50 & 1520 look even more likely now than when I wrote this note 4 hours ago.
PLEASE take the time to click this link and read the entire article. A couple of things you need to know:
1) I am not "Avery Goodman" though its quite clear that he is a Turdite.
2) He still has hope for Bart Chilton, I don't.
3) He thinks QE will be ending. I don't.
4) It is definitely NOT a myth that the Comex can default.
5) The BoS are not a myth, either.
In the end, though, this article is so well written that it is a must read.
More this evening. TF


  1. @Pining...

    I think you have misunderstood the freegold argument. No one will be buying anything will the gold. It will just be a "fairer" way to store your wealth in something that is not as easily manipulated as fiat/$ currency is...basically in this system of freegold it will be understood that over time the currency will become devalued (as that is the end result of fiat) and we will all continue to use currency but when you have enough that you need to store it away for future use, you will convert it into gold and hold it and sell it back for currency should u need it again, with the intention that it will continue to buy the same basket of goods for the same amt of gold even 100 yrs down the road

  2. That was it. The market sold into the NYMEX close in response to the last of the announced silver margin hikes.
    I agree Turd I think selling has abated and we're moving to test some resistance levels.
    Anyone heard anything about Debt Ceiling announcements?

  3. It is so extraordinarily difficult to use TA with this type of market-I know it's been said before.

    I BTFD Friday AM and am adding, actually nibbling since not all that aggressive but this time miners.

    I want the "just in case" is zigs rather than zags set up. If silver gets to 39 next couple of days I buy more weekly SLV bearish put spreads.

  4. Hi Turd,
    I agree with you on everything except I have a feeling we may see silver not stop at 35.00. I think we will see silver sell all the way down to between 20.00 and 25.00. I just don't trust the bankers. They have massive amounts of shorts to still cover. You will have the bernank come out and say they will not have QE3.
    Silver will sell off. Then those crooks will jump on the long side to make up for the small amount of contracts they can't cover. We will see silver above 100.00 at halloween. I agree with you tho.. the end of May and June should see some huge upticks. I just think they will sell it lower than 35.00.. My 2 cents for what it is worth.. also remember our 1,000,000.00 25.00 SLV put guy. He is in the know. Ofcourse we will have QE3 and that will be announced after JPM gets out of its short position and in time to save the bankers.

  5. Another extract from

    "Okay, let’s take a look at recycling. Another frequent claim from the shortage spruikers is that most of the silver which is consumed cannot be reclaimed. It is not economic to recycle most of the products sold that contain minute quantities of silver. This is absolutely true. But never, say never. The viability of recycling is a question of price, proximity and technology PP&T). Let’s take a look at just one product for now - the cell (mobile) phone.
    Is there likely to be a huge increase in the amount of recycled silver from electronic devices any time soon? I, for one, doubt it but it is an issue of PP&T for several metals and other recyclables in these products, not just silver. So never, say never."

    I can play that game too.

    Sea water contains gold. Is it economical to extract the gold from sea water? No. Is there likely to be significant gold production from processed sea water any time soon? I, for one, doubt it but it is an issue of PP&T for several metals and other products in sea water, not just for gold. So never, say never.

  6. @ SP

    FreeGold sounds like this:
    1) I wanna shoot myself in the foot (use FIAT).
    2) I realize it's gonna hurt (FIAT allows bankers to steal my money).
    3) I then come up with a pair of bullet-proof shoes (save in gold).
    4) Now it's OK to shoot myself in the foot (transact in FIAT / save in gold).
    5) I claim myself a genius for solving the shooting own foot problem (Free Gold is advertised by FOFOA as if the best invention since bread cutter).

    I'd say, "What a farce!!"

    Can you explain why in the world should people use FIAT that can be diluted by bankers and politicians? Who in their right mind would like to be compensated in a currency that can be siphoned by others?

  7. Regarding TA on silver... Santa suggested last week that we put a French curve on the silver chart to know when it bottomed. I did, and it worked perfectly. (It is really just a down trend line break, only with an exponential curve for a trend line.)

    Some of you may remember a few years ago when he was trying to teach us to trade better, and had quite a few lessons on the use French curves. Well, I do anyway.

    The French curve also worked incredibly well at identifying the exit point at the top. I put the French curve in the silver chart on April 28th and 29th, and made the decision to sell physical on Nucleo all that weekend. I held back some to sell later, but managed to sell the bulk of it at a respectable premium. Now I have been buying back on the dips.

    After the beating some of you took last week, it might be good to dig back in the JS Mineset archives and get familiar with that technique. It seems to be a really good tool in this market.

    Thank you, Uncle Jim!

  8. "IF this develops as I've projected, those levels would be fabulous entry points"
    indulge the nube, for what? physical, slv?
    i'm inexperienced and only hold phys now. but i do have a scott trade acct.

  9. Hey everyone.. I found this site a few weeks ago and have been reading it pretty religiously since. And I find Turd to be extremely knowledgeable about the metals markets as well as many of the posters.

    Full disclosure: i bought physical at 46.. which in hindsight and only looking at the short-term(as much as even that is remotely predictable) doesn't look like a smart decision. But it was merely a hedge against the sh*tty dollar and I'll be holding it long so I'm not too worried about it.

    From what I've read here most of the discussion deals with monetary policy and for good reason, but with only glancing comments about fiscal policy and the politics that dictate it which is obviously exceedingly important.

    My question is: And this is based in the context where the news media generate a lot of the hype around the markets in general and the metals markets in particular(see the last week) and how that dictates price to some extent.

    But over the past few weeks Obama has hinted that he would be willing to make budget cuts(FUTURE cuts no doubt -- in other words cuts that'll probably never happen).. combined that with Boehner and the Republicans holding up the raising of the debt ceiling unless they(supposedly) get some major budget cuts in a compromise for doing so.

    My question is: In the event that SOMEHOW the Obama administration and the Republicans come to a compromise and agree to budget cuts say a $trillion over the next ten years in exchange for a raising of the debt ceiling.

    How will that 'news' effect the commodities markets?

    To be clear I recognize that even a trillion in cuts over ten years would be essentially nothing in relation to the current budget deficits. And to be even more clear I highly doubt there will be a compromise cutting spending by even that much.

    But my point is the story of the 'drastic' cuts will no doubt flood the media(probably with a parallel story of Obama's new fiscal responsibility ... i know laughable .. but they'll say it no doubt). So I just wanted to get your opinions on if the effects of such a compromise and resulting news would cause any long term trends downward(or upward) in commodities/the dollar, etc.

    Thanks all. Great blog Turd.

  10. sp-

    Good point, I didn't explain this well. And I have tried to wrestle with Freegold, the value of gold floating free against whatever the new currency would be... a bridge to transfer wealth from the failing currency to whatever takes its place. I didn't think I should write a novel explaining this part, but my own take is that when the current fiat regime crashes there will be a powerful need for a means of indirect exchange, among a population that just witnessed a fiat crash. Distrust in paper will create a tremendous market for actual trade in the physical until another system can be established and ironed out. I was just trying to point out (poorly, perhaps) that if FOFOA's valuations are even remotely true, then indirect exchange would almost certainly require a silver component.

  11. I am not so sure about a formal QE3 program, but I could definitely see the Fed & Treasury implement that type of program by another name with a slightly different approach. I also think it is believable that there will be a pause in the liquidity push by the Fed. The politics seem to be putting pressure on the Fed for inflation, rightly so, but they may want the "patient" to beg for their "medicine" even if the cure will most likely kill the patient.



  13. @Rui

    Nobody gives a shit about "people in the world." The idea of freegold is actually a very sound one; I understand the logic. It won't happen, IMO, b/c the reason for fiat is to make it easier to steal from the people. Why would they allow us to save in PM and convert it back? Freegold gives people the chance to save money without worrying about how to protect it from devaluation.

    Has anyone here ever had a "want" that they would sell their PM for? Probably not, but as far as fiat is concerned, I can't think of too many people who have not dipped into their savings account to spend money on some nonsense they don't need.

    Also you ask:

    "Who in their right mind would like to be compensated in a currency that can be siphoned by others?"

    How would you suggest we are paid? Are there people on this board that actually hope for a day where we are buying things with physical currency like it is 1100AD in Persia? I mean the lack of a digital currency or means of liquid payment for goods or services would crash all businesses!

  14. @pining

    it's hard for me to get into the direct discussion about what would happen if the whole system collapses to the point where everything is mad max. i'm not saying it can't happen, but it is a little bit like preparing for a nuclear winter.

    u r right about the part, where if there is a transition phase there may well be bartering of some sort with PM, maybe even silver. IMO, this will never happen. there may be a black market but as we live in a very digital age, they could simply create a digital currency with a few weeks planning.

    also as much as i think FOFOA is very bright and ANOTHER has very interesting arguments, at the end of the day alot of this is academic.

  15. Gold eagles flying out of the US Mint and silver eagles would also at record pace if they had any!! All facts adding up to the USDINKer being rejected. Markets pricing in QEIII now. More hot money inflows to take the easy fed money and Dow to new all times highs. Dollar will be taking its last breath but no turdite should be stuck with worthless FRNs.

  16. I read a FOFOA frequently because it is generally chock full of well put together reasoning and logic. You do *not* necessarily have to agree with everything there to find it a valuable resource.

    Let's face it: most of us *are* ants trying to figure out the actions of Giants. From our point of view, the only thing driving Giants is the desire to crush ants at every available opportunity. That would probably be a mistaken assumption caused by a (near) complete lack of perspective.

    So, I try and keep an open mind about things. Read all kinds of resources and let them sit a while and cook. It's perspective-building.

    I sometimes think that people who have some reasonable opinions are driven out of here because their view is a bit contrary to most of the postings -- that is a mistake I think

  17. Newb question, why would silver continue to 39.50 with the margin increase today? Wouldn't that drive it back down tomorrow and Wednesday?

  18. @edward

    u make good points, actually i am not entirely certain that the giants always want to crush ants. they want us to build their nest but they rely on us more than we rely on them.

  19. Perhaps a bit off topic, but is it really?

    The Strange Case of Gold, Oil and Mummar Kaddfi.

    What with the world’s attention diverted with demise of Osama Bin Laden and dubious controversies over whether or not to release any photographic evidence of his brain matter, the story of the ongoing violence in Libya has been moved to page 12 so to speak. That is until just the other night when Kaddafi’s forces managed to blow up the last remaining oil facilities in rebel hands at the port city if Misrata. Going up in the smoke of the fires was not only the rebels last hopes of holding the city but any potential of funding there little revolution with oil and any financial viability to the curiously and hastily created new Central Bank of Libya.

    I’d say that it’s a pretty safe bet that Kaddafi is a low life tin pot dictator not much different than any other low life tin pot dictator found all across the Arab world. This raises the questions of why Libya and why now? As the wave of violence spread across the Middle East Kaddafi was hardly the only or the first to turn his guns on his subjects. In particular, as in Syria, where using unarmed protesters for target practice is now a daily ritual.

    So is there something going on under the surface with Libya that is perhaps not being discussed but is also perhaps a driving force behind the “humanitarian mission” that NATO has undertaken? Well let’s look at a few elements, some not necessarily making the front page in the New York Times.

    1. Shortly after the so-called rebels took control of the city of Benghazi it was announced that it would become the home for a new Central Bank of Libya and would seek association with both the (International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

    2. This new “Bank” would also become the financial clearing house for new oil export agreements between the new rebel “government” and other Arab states that would provide the logistical support to get the oil out of Libya, i.e. tankers and refinery capacity.

    3. Libya’s existing Central Bank is wholly owned by the State and is not affiliated with either the IMF or the BIS. (Not to mention that it also owns about 12% of the major Italian banks.)

    4. Just a few months before this “revolution” spread to Libya, Kaddafi (through the state owned bank) announced that they were seeking to create a “Gold Dinar” to be used by Arab and African States as the medium of exchange for oil transactions within the region.

    5. Any such transaction would be outside the reach of the IMF and BIS and would not necessarily be based on any translation of the spot price value based in U.S. Dollars, and whatever the agreed to transaction price was, based in Gold Dinars.

    With any such transactions now taking place directly between the buys and sellers and cutting out the western spot market and banking interests and eliminating whatever their cut of the action is for the currency trades certainly casts an additional if not different light on the above questions of “Why Libya and why now.”

    I’ll be waiting for Osama Ben Bernanke to be asked about this at his next propaganda press conference. But I won’t be holding my breath.

  20. That assumes the giants even realize that they are stepping on ants. For the most part, I don't think we even register on their radar as most of us would want to believe.

  21. K,

    You just answered your own question - maybe you just didn't notice. You bought silver high but are not concerned because it is a long term investment. Seems smart to me.

    But you are concerned about illusions like 1 trillion $ budget cuts. What news like this allows the TPTB to do is to move the markets down(or up I suppose) violently but temporarily. If you are on an accumalation program and buy the dips when possible you will cost average out against these events and in the long run you will win.

    Of course there is a lot of chatter on the net these days about silver not being money and being highly overvalued, in a bubble etc. It is difficult to discern what is true and what is not. Everyone seems to have some sort of agenda. So know this - we (you and I - john q public) do not control this game. Also make no mistake - even the TPTB can be punished by the laws of physics. Spend to much, print too much and the natural laws of the universe have a way of spanking you badly for your folly - even if it takes decades or centuries. The flip side - in the mean time - until math catches up with our leaders they and their friends can and will drain you of your wealth if you are not paying attention. Even though no empire lasts forever and most go broke before they are overrun by barbarians mighty casear and co. can still hurt you.

    Thus everyone must evaluate their own risk tolerance and invest/hedge (prepare) accordingly. ther is no right path or perfect answer as to what you should do. Find what works best for you and stick with it. You might not get rich but you will be miles ahead of the heard.

    Good luck.

  22. @ Charles - because they announced today's margin hike last week, everyone knew it was coming and so it is considered already accounted for in the market. If it was just announced today it might have had a different impact but it's "already priced in" as they say.

  23. This comment has been removed by the author.

  24. @FISD

    That makes sense, thanks for the reply! =)

  25. @ SP

    Nobody gives a shit about "people in the world."

    See that's why US economy screws up: When government plays fire with FIAT they hurt the overall economy. People who actually work hard are constantly siphoned upon til the point they either cannot make ends meet or realize it ain't worth working hard anymore. Gradually they become parasites living on government siphoning from others. Eventually this economy fails to function after enough people cease to be productive and thus needs reset, and that's where US is heading.

    Free Gold is designed by those central bankers thinking they deserve to manage everyone's money while it's completely the opposite. You wanna know what the right system is? Well it's that of the 19th century hard money system without, I repeat WITHOUT, the fraudulent fractional reserve system.

  26. @swampfox

    I appreciate the response.. even more coming from Francis Marion himself. ;) I'm pretty confident in the direction we are headed .. but looking for outside opinions on the likelihood of other possibilities is always smart I think. Thanks again.

  27. "actually i am not entirely certain that the giants always want to crush ants."

    Of course not. But from an ant's perspective, "that's just what giants seem to be about".

  28. Learn you lesson... Do not get greedy and take profits. I know I did (learn my lesson). :-)

  29. Turd, what do you think about BitCoin?

  30. @Rui

    btw this is a good discussion, sorry to anyone else if this is taking up space. but it is something that is directly related to all of this crap.

    i think a world without any fractional system will ultimately be an extremely slow growing system...i mean how can u build a business without credit? and ultimately if loans and credit are to exist then there will be fraud associated with it?

    i guess what i am getting at is, that 19th century hard money is it going to work in today's age? what is the practical solution.

  31. sierra hpbt...

    77g smkhpbt-m is one of my favorites...

    the other is...

    250g smkhpbt :)

    As for you post... it is that reason that is probalby going to have me convert some of my physical silver into gold this week and probably even liquidate a bit to outfit some more of my land. I am way overweigted in physical silver and it's probably just prudent to switch some out and buy some other physical things.

  32. @sp

    I believe remove default insurance, (that gives the illusion of a safe investment), raise intrest rates, stop printing money / return to the gold standard. I believe the 19th century system worked well. It allowed for savings, it allowed for the Government to sell tresuries to the people not foreign countries, (like WWII debt) and with products being produced here because people actually had to work for money (Because it was not given out so easily for so little) GDP was up and there was not the trade deficit we have today.

    just my two cents


  33. @SP

    It's not going to work.

    If a mad max collapse happens, you will barter things like alcohol, tobacco, drugs (prescription, OTC, and illicit), food, seeds, health & beauty supplies, etc. You won't be trading PM's IMO. Dmitry Orlov has a list of the things that were most desired and used as barter after the collapse of the USSR in his book "Reinventing Collapse" and PM's weren't on it.

  34. K,

    Outside opinions are important. They either help us reevaluate our own assumptions (and prejudices) or they help us to reaffirm what we already knew to be true.

    PS - I would just like to go on record as stating that my call name is out of respect for a man that never underestimated his enemy, never saw a job as being to small and stuck it to the "the man - errrr king" as often and as hard as possible. It ends there - My wife and I are not related outside of marriage :-)

  35. I didn't wait for a double bottom. I was buying sale priced miners all last week.

    Cream Minerals, Commerce Resources, South American Silver, Great Panther and Bralorne Mines.

  36. Who said slow growing system is bad? Only elite banksters. Busineses were started and grown in the mid-eightteen hundreds and it was the most prosperous time in our nation's history.

  37. This comment has been removed by the author.

  38. pailin - i only discovered this today but adding the hundred and fifty moving average to the 5 min xag chart, it helps entry with your RSI system - what do you think?? seems like a decision point on that MA

  39. FOAGQ-

    Cashed out my small position in AGQ that I got on Thursday for a small profit today, decided that it would be a good personal thing to put a little positive momentum in my own portfolio. At the moment I'm trying to just rebuild with a more cautious strategy, taking profits when it looks like a spike, and then sitting back and waiting patiently (that's the hard part) for the next "fat pitch".

  40. 2:48p


    FDIC says Sheila Bair to leave July 8

  41. @curb

    i 100% agree. and btw i am discussing post mad max scenario anyways...basically, what the hell can we do to fix this after gold goes up to $XXXXX for ex.


    i think alot of americans think there will be some policy to "fix" the lost jobs here. sorry, if u r in that mindset, i think u will be waiting forever.

    western markets (us, brits, euros) all are based primarily on belief of capitalistic markets. currently the only way to decrease "outsourcing" is to cheat the system by subsidizing companies to build things here- there is no money in the system to do this. the reason the US was creating things in the US was b/c there was no easy outsourcing mechanism (ie internet and phone technology) to outsource the work. it is not because are parents were any more patriotic. trust me, any business owner with half a brain is always spending time figuring out how to increase their net profit.

    outsourcing will end approximately when the lower level wages in the rest of the world are ~10-20% less than ours. until that happens, this "equilibirum" will be sought out by the markets.

  42. Sheila can you do us Turds a favor and take the rest of the clan with you.


  43. @ sierra

    I think you are spot on. I'm a bit long now but will get out before $40 and go short at the first signs of weakness. I think the $20's may be in the cards if the media runs with the "No QE3" story and instills fear in the markets.

    I'm actually holding off on buying physical right now thinking I'll get a better price in a few weeks.

  44. Put in a bid for AGQ at $185, I figured that would be a good solid reentry point once the double bottom occurs.

  45. @sp,

    Have you read Antal Fekete? He advocates the "Real Bllls Doctrine". That is the use of 90 day bills of credit that are self extinguishing on the 91st day. FOFOA has acknowledged this concept and feels it is sound.

  46. Wouldn't surprise me if states ramming through gold/silver legal tender laws, are buying up all the U.S. Mint grade bullion coins. Front running the stampede before all AmeriCON'd knows FRNs are shit paper.

  47. On the issue of actually controlling the budget, err spending.

    Neither party wants to or has to will to really cut entitlements. Interest is only controllable short term. Defense--not from my state.

    What the Fed Govt needs is a turn around artist. Actually a bunch of leaders who know they are one termers and could slash and burn.

    Ain't gonna happen. Our elected leaders are really no different than CEO's and board members--I want mine!

    The threat of cost cutting and debt ceiling freezing could temporarily know the markets for a loop.

  48. sp
    Carry on, that is what this site is for.There are many people gaining valuable 411 from discussions like yours. Probably 10x people are listening/learning rather than posting. Never feel you are taking too much space, we all can scroll along. Many don't understand FOFOA,Sinclair, Armstrong,etc., so if some one can shed light, that is a good thing.

  49. i wonder if a double bottom will occur in silver - why would the EE allow us a re-entry (?) ... surely they want to do the unexpected random, which make silver running to 44 then crushing it again to 33

    IDK ...just complete speculation

  50. @rick

    there are actually many places in the world that agreed with u, although very few are left.

    in india in the 1990s u needed to buy a home or business cash down. no mortgage market existed. my grandfather purchased a small flat in delhi which was paid with 6 cars full of $ - could have paid in gold then instead as well. at that time, the civilization in india was lightyears ahead of the 1800s america.

    there are still places like this in the world. electricity is a rarity, water is a luxury, and 60hr work weeks are the norm (kinda like 19th century america)...i genuinely hope we are not sent into this direction!

  51. He says it better than me

  52. @lazy

    antel is a bright man, actually that idea is more feasible.

    i was brought up in a very poor environment, but due to the way lending markets work in america, ie they exist, i had a chance to build my own business.

    as much as i am pissed at the bankers for what they have done, truth is u still have a better chance here than just about anywhere else & by factors of 10 or 100 & this is b/c of credit. if u remove all credit markets out of sight, basically the rest of us who are not already sitting in 30+ million will automatically become slaves without even the dream or option of getting out of this system

  53. Lester,
    That was me and Rick Rule buying right along with you. Anatal is one of the best, been following him for years, the man has the soul of Mises.

  54. sp,

    I had nothing but the clothes on my back when I landed in the city. Hard work and thrift got me ahead, but yes, credit in moderation was a big help to me as it allowed me to buy a house and accrue equity over time.

    Without access to credit I never would have been a home owner.

  55. @ Stevy
    I'm with you on that idea. How do you keep investors out of the market, especially the physical market.
    A slow steady climb with out a pure technical bottom would keep a lot of investors on the side lines. If silver runs up into the 40's it would most likely bring a lot of dumb money with actual physical selling into the market. Maybe we get a sell off, but I think the the likelihood may actually ly in upward progress.

  56. @SP
    I agree at this point no policy will fix this, at this point it's a culture thing. Debt is normal. However I believe much would be fixed if everything would scream to a hault. Cut the Federal Govt to nothing. Stop printing money and handing it out like there is no responsibility with it. Make things like PMI illegal. (default insurance) I truley believe that simple things like this can start us down a better path. I don't believe it will happen... that's why I'm here, but i'm also just young enough, and just stupid enough to still hope my nation can be saved.

    an afterthought... i enjoy this kind of conversation and take no offense if people don't agree with me, as i hope they don't take it personel when i don't agree with them, i like to think we are all here because we care about our families, which makes us all alike.

  57. Kumanari,

    I thought I recognized you as we were jostling for position. ;-)

  58. Change Jamie Dimon can believe in!

  59. Jesse Livermore

    This guy was alegendary trader in the 20s, it ended with a suicide in a NY hotel room, keep trading, and i dont care how smart you are, you will get nailed.

    But a very wise and interesting man, not entirely well.

    But he gave the world the 9/11 table, a fairly basic function of how human beings react to round numbers.

    Its rather clear now, that 50 dollar silver was problematic, its not just around number, and a bad one, its also the Hunt corner high. This then is a tough number, and we should not be hugely surprised it was radically repelled.

    Lets do jesses table shall we, its all about ten percent off round numbers.

    Here we go then, 11, 18,, 22, 27, 33, and so on.

    Where did silver stop.

    About 33. Three times 11, its basically just multiples of 9 or 11, and its downright uncanny.

    WE hit 33, or close. Is that likely it? Yup. I bet that is it, three times 11.

  60. @Another Opinion

    I was thinking the same thing... it may just grind slowly higher here with only shallow corrections. We see that pattern on a smaller scale often in silver in the shorter time frames.

    If too many people are expecting a re-test it may not happen, or it will be shallow.

  61. One further comment ..... if we ever bust 50 as i expect after some basing, this board willcollectively faint,.... its now ahugely portentious number, it will be 60 before you blink, Blythe can blow me gently, but its gone on its way to 77, seven times 11, right onschedule.

  62. Why do you guys continue to enable Bankster precious metals suppression by trading on the COMEX? Do you think it will reform itself? Do you believe it will stop acting on behalf of Bullion Banks and its own Clearing members?

  63. Silver goes triple digits. Its an incredibly vauable and strategic metal. In many respects i would argue its better then gold, nobody puts gold in computers, and silver is a far better conductor, its triple digits my dear friends, a little patience and a little maturity, and a hundred dollar bill.

  64. Moon in Leo, fire sign.

    Steady rising force along with lots of Mars energies.

  65. "nobody puts gold in computers"

    Yes they do. There is gold plating on connector contacts, and gold bonding wires inside computer chips.

  66. vamoose you are predicting a close at 33? I must be reading you wrong. I like the round number theory, could you elaborate?

  67. @Timer - I really appreciate your astrocycle analysis. Please keep providing if possible.

    Much Obliged.

  68. Silver in landfills.

    Maybe one fine day we go digging in the landfill, aha!!! a laptop, just exactly where is the siver component, in the screen, hopelessly diffused, maybe some ambitious idiot will give us ten bucks, agglomerate it with another 300 laptops from landfills, and grind out a few bucks.

    BHut not at these numbers, go and do an exercise, hold a one ounce silver maple and a one ounce gold whatever.

    Put your anaconda down and look at what ye see.

    One costs 40 bucks, and the other one 1500.

    Who do you love. Who do you love. Next question?

  69. I like the move up on silver today but I'm looking at the spot chart on NetDania and the volume looks light. Anyone commented on this yet? bit of a concern. I think Turd's view that silver hits resistance at 39-40 is looking likely if the volume is not there to sustain a move up. Thoughts?

  70. My prediction for this week is Friday close will be higher than Monday close.

    Mid week there might be some short term cycle selling, but overall the long term cycle should be dominating for this week.

  71. Looks like short covering.

  72. i think mr ferguson is god on 2 legs, incredibly wise and smart, and enormously humanly generous. its seriously admirable.

  73. Vamoose,

    I saw a news article several years back about a goldmining operation inside the Philadelphia city limits. They mined scrap electronics. The scrap contained about 3 oz per ton making it one of the richest gold mines in the world.

  74. Sheila! Our paper ponzi F*dic bair is leaving 7/8. Don't blame her for buggin out. She sees the bankster fraudster collapse coming. Doesn't care to be near any ones 10 foot lying pole-nokio when it caves.

  75. A warning to the other ants...

    If you see a giant positioning magnifying glass above you... uh, that's not a good sign, go back to the mound and take cover!

  76. There is something incredibly important about sites like this. I can probably elicit 50 of them with a commonality.

    Nobody is seriously trying to make money. These are remarkabvle people.

    I am not American, but i find them like paul Revere, they love theor country, dollar a year men in 1940, very serious guys.

    Patriots. I would be so proud.

  77. Bravo, Edward. I absolutely agree with your above post. Putting on blinders is dangerous, even if one's current paradigm is correct.

  78. J
    Barrying anymore unexpected developments that's how I've got my $ invested.
    Gold looks good. PM stocks should rally really well on this swing. Silver may lag, but then again maybe not.
    Overnight trading will be interesting to see how China responds.

  79. @ Brian

    Contacted Netdania last week to get an explanation of what the volume meant on their chart. Here's their reply:
    "The numbers represent the trading volume from few banks, giving some indication of the ongoing market activity. Please note that it cannot be used as a guide line for the total market volume, which is unknown."

    So do NOT base your assumprions on the volumes represented on chart.

  80. On 19-20 May 11,

    We have heliocentric conjunctions of Jupiter and Mars in the sign of Aries, and Venus and Uranus in the sign of Aries.

    I think this is a special day to watch, as there are 2 heliocentric cycles that are occurring on back to back around the same day.

    In the sign of Aries, I expect a lot of energy to be played out. Aries rules metals, hence i expect PM movements will be volatile.

    The day leading into 19 May will clue us in to this occurance and its polarity. My current bias is for a up trend into 19-20 May 11, probably started from 5/5 already.

  81. 33 was ten percent off round number 30. Waqs that it?

    It was.

    If we grind for a while, on either side of 40, i could give a flying. In fact i would be pleased, to take the steam out of that mommy effing chart.

    WE will give 50 another kiss. If breached, jesus, then its wild, we will be in th 70s so fast we can never buy another ounce.

  82. The world of 51.

    If this thing ever printed 51, its so gone, so wild, you will jump on your wife, and be unable to deliver, its an instant 60. Crazy country.

  83. Vamoose
    will you please take a breath and shut the front door. geez

  84. Terrific!!

    A laptop in a landfill!!!yum yum, except just exactly how do you recover the metal.

    About 300 dollars later you are made in the shade.

    But our little goofy metal, is 38 american dollars, thenselves of comical proportions, all together now HAHAHAHAHA, kindly be serious.

  85. The battle for $38! For whatever reason.

  86. hunter s. thompson being channeled here today

  87. Vamoose,

    You are messed up - but I love your posts. I read every one. You are either God's gift to metal investors or the best psy ops project ever launched on a blog. Don't change a thing. It would be very dull here without you.

  88. Vamoose - can you give more information on Livermore's 9/11 table. Google was not very helpful. Thanks!

  89. @ Altee,
    Mind sharing your thoughts on what you are seeing going forward as well?


  90. @ paulindoon, thanks for response. Great to know that! I notice SLV volume is down today vs. last week. Anyone know if COMEX volume was lower today than last week?

  91. Timer,maybe you forgot to include mercury?
    They all rise together at dawn.
    Since that was the ram with the golden fleece and it rises at dawn with the company of all these planets you have me thinking maybe gold is set to rise too ..^0^

  92. My miners kicked some serious butt today. I tried to sell them to raise money for physical, but I just couldn't bring myself to do it. I know they will probably under-perform physical silver over the next 3 months.

    I'll have to come up with another solution for getting more physical.

    My top winners for the day:
    AG: +8.4%
    EXK: +8.7%
    LEXVF: +8.7%
    RVM: 8.4%

    Nearly everything else is up between 2% and 6%.

    If I get a margin call, maybe then I'll sell.

  93. This comment has been removed by the author.

  94. Dmon

    * I agree with Turd's analysis

    * We are always subject to a criminal raid but in the long term that is counter productive to their cause so when that occurs...


    * You can buy anywhere and you will make money longer term. But if you are leveraged or cant take the heat when things move against you then you have to be cautious and BTFD. If you had the courage of you convictions to be a buyer into last weeks sell off, then you have my respect. Nothing has changed except the magnitude of the swings we will see going forward.

    * GLTA and I anxiously await the new format.

  95. Vamoose...what country do you live in?

  96. txh atlee for posting, I always search for your comments

    also thx @ Markus and pailin

  97. PLEASE check the update and carve out five minutes to clink the link and read the article. Take your time and understand what the author is saying.

  98. Who has hijacked vamoose's profile and started posting all this silver bull jibberish from his account?!?!?!!!? ;)

  99. Vamoose MUST be French-Canadian... that's my guess anyway... that said, I still want to know who hijacked his profile and posted bullish stuff!?!?!?!? )

  100. Not to worry Titus,

    I spoke to Great Panther today and you still have some time before their backlog of orders is filled and they re-open their online store. :)

    Apparently some of my order from the end of April will still be warm when it ships next week!

    Really nice people to deal with it seems. Oh and news - they will shortely be shipping to Canadians from Canada. (My last order was shipped from NW territorial mint) so this should speed up shipping.

    We discussed recent volumes and they got hit big time with orders on the 27th+28th which is why they took down their e-store temporarilly.

    We discussed why so many people bought and I mentinoed I had heard of them over a blog to which they asked if it was "that turd guy". :)

    Apparently they've been searching for the "turd link" so I shared the blog link and invited them over. (Hope you don't mind Turd)

    Who knows if they'll say "hi" at some point and be able to give us front information from the ground up. (sorry for the bad pun) :)

  101. Start to c the meaning of buy into fear, sell into strength!
    I really wanted to do another phys. purchase on the recent pullback, but think i will keep a fair sized stack of FRNs.
    Better than expected income has allowed me to "buy in" for more than was my initial target anyway.
    Now I have caught the PMs bug, and watched the pullback, really had me itching to BTFD... though as has been said, another downturn would not surprise.
    Just trying to strike a balance between on hand cash, and physical PMs.
    Just Joe Six Pack here.... but this "Joe" is not watching American Idol... and I bang the "drum" loud enough that a few folks around me are hearing it!

  102. Folks. Vamoose only seems suddenly bullish because of the correction. He and a few others (Yukon for one that I can name) were making noise about the group-think and the parabolic pricing. Not at all the same as not being long-term bullish.

    Notice also that physical holders sound different than FOAGQ.

    I do think the first postings were abrasive and sounded drug-influenced however soon enough his position came clear.

    In the event it's unclear just ASK the poster if they are talking short, medium or long term. (then for fun ask them what short, medium and long mean to them)

    Turd is exceptionally clear, giving approximate pricing levels and timing. Most commenters are not like that.

  103. For all of you AGQ fans: check out what the Canadian version of AGQ (HZU.TO) did today:

  104. I think afrum and vamoose have been hitting the bong together and are now sitting at the same keyboard typing simultaneously.

  105. vamoose is bi-winning today.

  106. Happy... I'm with you on Vamoose and Yukon (and Evil) and I appreciated all their comments.

    I know that I confuse some people as well as my physical world is a COMPLETELY seperate issue from my paper world.

    The ONLY thing I see myself doing with my physical any time soon (as in "next 5+ years" kind of timeline) is swapping silver for gold as I am wayyyy overallocated in physical silver (and that was a "growth" choice that I'll convert to "preserve." I'm not adding to my physical position because I am overallocated to that as an assset class right now.

    As for my "FOAGQ status" (and other paper vehicles like AGQ), I use that to generate profits and I've used those FRNs to buy three seperate properties, all of which have one or more natural resource values (agriculture, timber, coal, natural gas...).

    Two seperate things/worlds, but typcially on this board, the things I talk about are relative to paper trading, not my "core" assets regardless of what they are.

  107. Alex - I also had a nice conversation with someone at GPL about an order placed during that huge crush. She assured me it'll be on its way soon, and I was really impressed by her professionalism.

    We chatted for a few minutes about the huge volume of orders they'd received, and I said the word of their "under spot" price had spread like wildfire across the precious metals community online. And that, the next day, we'd all been wondering if the orders would go thru.

    She asked which site I'd heard about it from, and I said "Turd Ferguson's Along the Watchtower." It sounded like she'd been hearing the same thing from others.

  108. @Altee, Thanks appreciate your perspective as always.

  109. What if they hike margins once again for silver in mid may? Would not that bring the price down once again to mid 20's or so?

  110. This comment has been removed by the author.

  111. @titus,

    SLV +7.25%

    Miners did not prove their worth today IMO when compared to physical or its paper proxy, SLV. (That includes mine that were up ranging from 2.0% to 10.7% on the day.)

  112. That is a great article on zero hedge. If you don't read all the way through that article, then you do not belong in this mkt period.


    Now more than ever you must really be nimble. I am happy being in and out very quickly and giving up the over the weekend moves. THe daily moves we are seeing in AGQ even for a 100 share player are sufficient to satisfy most traders avarice. Heck, a 25 share position made $650 today. If you position wrong, you are in for a world of pain. Much better to be in position to take advantage rather than be taken advantage of. Just be careful. Don't get buried.

  113. among other things he's saying 22.50 is possible, short of a full 2008 style crash that sounds a little far fetched.

  114. Oil margins raised: from ZH:

    And Here They Go For Round Two: CME Hikes Brent, Crude Margins By 25%, First Of Many Such Moves

    Some brilliant Chicago-based exchange apparatchik just ask himself this simple question: "If it worked so well with silver, why not do it with crude?" The answer is here: the CME, as we predicted last week, just hiked initial and maintenance margins on Crude and Brent by 25%, as well as FX, and other petrochemicals. And, oh yes, this is prudent risk management, because while the CME kept margins flat when WTI was at $115, the massive spike from $97 to $102 is unbearably destabilizing. At this point one can only stand back and watch as the CME proceeds with hike after hike, in an absolute vacuum from the administration, which certainly had nothing to do with this decision. And really who cares: free capital markets died on March 18, 2009.

  115. All of the KWN Gurus are without any
    exception great. My thoughts on the
    metals are essentially a median of these
    gurus ideas and intuitions, although in
    my actions my tendency is still to do my
    own thing.
    I particularly like Rick Rule at the
    moment. I think he is particularly switched
    into the general market psyche, and the first
    person to articulate in detail his perception
    of market volatility. He has been very clever
    to spot this trend (which he is very happy to
    befriend), and he sees a continuation of this for another 18 months. During this time, we will
    need to find within us some very very deep
    conviction about our beliefs, since what happened last week may turn out to be trivial. Before silver turns 50 again, we may see some
    gut wrenching and chart defying numbers, which take our breath away. Hopefully most will be
    relatively short lived. The bull market will
    rescue us, but the lifeboat may be a bit farther away than we thought, and get deflected by some abnormal size waves, as it weaves its wobbly way back in our direction. Hold on tight !

  116. @atlee. Solid advice. Way to easy to jump back on the nothing but up bandwagon.

    FOAGQ - I sold what I'd been holding early and then did one (1) in and out. Not a big money trade but better to get antything than lose.

  117. silver hike took down crude

    crude hike - silver takedown

    if A than B; will if B than A hold

  118. the linked article is so complex, so chockfull of terms I don't understand it would make a newcomer beleive he has to study quantum physics before understanding the metals markets. Imo its also tedius beyond imagination. It is fast approaching the time to buy bullion and turn off the computer. There is so much obfuscation and shylocking going on out there and so many beleive that they have 'the' handle on all of it. I have never ever traded a market filled with more rumors and innuendo, theories and counter theories than the paper metals. It is getting boring,boring,boring at this point.

    lets simplify. What is needed is prosecution and significant jail time for all criminal participants. But that will never happen in our corporo-facist State. And I don't care if Silver goes over 100. This is going to continue. People are dreaming if they think that the largest and most powerful banking institution in history throws in the towel like the Lakers did yesterday and then all is clear in the Silver market. Not a chance. We may as well suck it UP and get USED to it. I appreciate Turd linking this but that said I share no enthusiasm whatsoever of any resolve of this ongoing criminality. Lots of brainy guys have made lots of brainy posts on this but nothing flies until rule of law is restored. Nothing.

  119. epiiplus1

    That is a misprint!! HZU.TO was up 15.20% today.

  120. Turd,

    I read the ZH article update. BoS can go long SLV and short the Ag futures market. That would control Ag prices. Meaning, the price of silver could be held range bound on that strategy with delivery from the SLV warehouse. i.e. If there's sufficient capital to do it, all while covering outstanding short positions. Hence short capitulation may only be a long consolidation, until the SLV runs out of silver.


  121. @Guy Fawkes

    Good. I basically flipped a coin last Friday morning and chose Sprott instead of HZU.

    My trading account was showing it as +245% too, though....weird.

    Thanks for the info, I can stop kicking myself now.

  122. WOW! Great article!! My heart is racing with both excitement and fear. Excitement for my physical positions and fear for my futures positions. I am now more than ever grateful for this blog.

    I have been trading silver for 8 years now and have done very well. However, were it not for the crash of 08 and last week I would be close to retirement ( I am 38)

    I will never forget where I was last Sunday when I checked kitco and saw silver down $6. I didn't get out and paid the price, 4 open futures positions. It has been an emotional week and I am sure more will come. Even though it was house money, many "what if's" filled my thinking...I could've paid off my house, bought a new audi etc.

    In any case, I am eternally grateful for this blog. Turd you are the best. Much appreciation goes out some of the seasoned traders who contribute as well.

    This forum is something special!



  123. I am sorry for my last post and I do hope I did not insult anyone. This Market has excellent volatility for daytrading and that is all that matters. I am not smart enough to anticipate the meaning or purpose of the next criminal move in Silver but I have learned long since not to anticipate an endgame. What matters only is making money day to day when the Market turns this volatile. That is the be all and end all for me. The rest I leave to fate.

  124. @Guy Fawkes

    Odd, the page you gave me says HZU closed +15%, but the closing price is listed as $34.49. The price on Friday was around $10.00.....

    I really hope you are right.

  125. @Lazy Lester,
    Yea. That's the problem with miners. I did a lot better than the HUI, XAU or GDXJ. But if I had used my original stock money to instead buy physical, I would be quite a bit ahead right now.

    At this point I'm over 85% physical. My mining shares are a small part of my portfolio and really only exist so I don't completely miss the train on some kind of explosion in mining stock prices.

  126. epiiplus1

    It was not around $10 on friday is was in the high $20s. Perhaps you were looking at a different symbol by mistake.

  127. hey,

    noob here, been reading none stop about silver and turd's words for about a week. I have to say it's a no brainer to get into the market now.

    what i want to know is:

    I'm looking at buying a big chunk of silver all at once, do you reckon best to buy in now or wait for a double drop this week?

  128. "the linked article is so complex, so chockfull of terms I don't understand it would make a newcomer beleive he has to study quantum physics before understanding the metals markets. Imo its also tedius beyond imagination. "

    Well, I'm not much above beginner myself, but found it well-written and fairly understandable.

    Good point about turning off the computer, these day-to-day fluctuations will just wind up being tiny dots in the rear view mirror. But, that's more for the buy & hold crowd (myself included). Keep in mind, many are actively trading and need to pay attention to those fluctuations

  129. Just in case anyone missed this great Ted Butler article in Silver seek

  130. matsk8park

    a good idea is to buy some now just in case it doesn't come back ... from 33 to here at 37 is still a good price ...

  131. @matsk8park - my best advice would be NOT to buy "a big chunk of silver all at once." Break it into chunks, 1/10ths or 1/5ths 1/4ths, and average in. Pick nice dips to add on, averaging up vs averaging down doesn't matter... Yeah, averaging up kinda bites, but buying a big chunk the day before a correction bites even more.

  132. forgot to add... if you MUST buy a big chunk all at once, I'd wait till mid to late june. ish... if the fed talks up no QE3 enough a market correction may come earlier, so you've gotta be paying attention.

    Basically, buying one, big chunk puts your timing skills to the test. Safer to average in, IMO...

  133. epiiplus1 I trade HZU and can assure you it was not $10 at any time on Friday and didn't increase by 200+% today. Not sure where your data feed is from but you can call your broker to clear it up.

  134. my 2 cents don't buy a big chunk. i almost did that 2 weeks b/c i didn't feel i had enough PMs; glad i waited and bot a small amount, can always get more later. i think it's got a long way to go.

    i just don't like doing the transaction b/c everytime i do it i have to go the bank to do a stupid wire transfer

  135. @uptofreedom

    thanks for the advice. the reason was i'm in the uk and the tax in germany is 13% less so i get a free holiday out of it :D (also more coins for my buck)

    I almost booked my flights today, but been reading a lot about people suggesting another drop first

  136. Turd-

    I totally love that you link the potential market action with the political and social externals... in a manipulated market those are the forcers, and it gives me a (slight) level of comfort what to watch for and gives me time to review my own strategy if/when it happens.

    The only comment I might make is that things seem to happen about twice as fast as you predict... it's frightening how fast this stuff happens after you lay out the possibilities.

    I'd not be suprised by an EE smackdown tonight, with the crude hike as cover, we could be looking at 35 tomorrow morning.

    So I'm trying to be "nimble" (as atlee put it), and plan my moves now.

  137. Another 4 days like today and I'll break even on AGQ.

    Anybody got any reasoned outlook or chart signals on this baby?

  138. No argument here. Look at the relationship of PMs and other assets.

  139. I am going to go out on a limb here and make a prediction. I say we hit 46 by options expiration

  140. This morning's XAG buy worked nice, sold @ 37.87 near 4pm. Expected dip in there, but didn't dip enough to buy back. Playing it close to vest these days, looking for good dips and $1 ride, no more. Well aware that any trade can go south real fast :)

    word ver- hater
    Um, not really :)

  141. Sprott New fund is a game changer. Sprott mentioned before how hard it was to secure all of the silver for PSLV. I can only imagine how hard it is going to be for the new fund


    TORONTO, May 9 /CNW/ - Sprott Asset Management LP ("Sprott") is pleased to announce that it has expanded its industry leading family of precious metals funds with the addition of the Sprott Silver Bullion Fund.

    Sprott now offers five different precious metals funds including, Sprott Gold & Precious Minerals Fund, Sprott Gold Bullion Fund, Sprott Silver Bullion Fund, as well as the exchange-traded Sprott Physical Gold Trust and Sprott Physical Silver Trust.

    "We have been very early and active investors in precious metals and we strongly believe that all investors should have an allocation to precious metals in their portfolios. With our newest fund, investors will have greater choice as to how they choose to gain exposure to this asset class." says James Fox, President of Sprott Asset Management.

    The Sprott Silver Bullion Fund is an innovative offering, being the first mutual fund in Canada to invest primarily in unencumbered, fully allocated silver bullion. The Fund's objective is to seek to provide a secure and liquid investment for investors seeking exposure to silver bullion without the inconvenience associated with direct investment.

  143. If an investor is afraid to have much PMs in their house, but wants to invest a lot of money in PMs, where is it safest to invest so it will be there when they eventually sell? I know that GLD and SLV are for fools. So where then?
    Thank you very much.

  144. Unusual amount of volume on XAG right now. Price isn't moving much, so I guess they're working against some quicksand, but I can't get a read on whether it's buying or selling volume. Very weird.

  145. aurum argentum,

    I think the Sprott fund mentioned above is attractive in that situation. You don't have physical possession, but at least you are pretty sure that the asset exists.

  146. sprott may be a guy who can actually corner the silver market.

  147. aurum argentum,

    Allocated Silver at a Broker is an option. I would suggest an OFFSHORE account. In Australia check out Perth Mint, or better Australian Bullion Company. They have allocated and unallocated. $20 per kilo per year in storage if allocated. unallocated is no charge. Many options available in many different countries

  148. FYI - Kitco in Hong Kong yesterday sold out of everything except 30kg bars and Phillharmonics! To check just enter then select the English button, then silver, then scroll down to see what they usually carry.
    Also I usually buy gold coins through the Hang Seng Bank ( a subsidiary) of HSBC - when I went in last week they at first told me they were out but then finally asked how many coins - after saying only two they let me buy. I wasn't given a choice of coins - they used to have Eagles, krugerands, Maples and Perth Mint Kangaroos. I got given 2 1988 Australian Nuggetts!

  149. Is not this new Sprott fund just like the Central Fund's Siver Bullion Trust?

  150. Anyone know what's up with the Kitco silver quotes? For the past couple of days, it's been show a constant .20 spread on the bid/ask. Never changes. That can't be right.

  151. Larry...

    I agree with you. I had a big day too, but stayed in overnight. I hope that was't a mistake, but it's only 30% of the funds I'm playing with for paper trading, the rest is dry powder.

    That said, I think I'm with Atlee for the next, as yet to be defined, period of time... I'll take profits on a daily basis as I can and be off the table at the close. If I miss a gap up with my PAPER, so be it... my PHYSICAL catches it all... good or bad.

  152. sumo said... "With *perhaps* you can say anything.
    What's the point? You're clever with words? Congratulations."


  153. has my blood boiling. The only "speculators" that were available to be smacked down was retail. Everyday folk "betting" on more inflation and the law of supply and demand. People like us. You and I. We The People.

    Some bureaucrat thought we needed to be shown who's the boss, knowing it would hit retail's wallet. Fucking act of war you ask me...

  154. silver futures chart

    not sure this will work

  155. anyways the chart speaks for itself but i'm sticking with turd on this one

  156. atlee said..."Vamoose will you please take a breath and shut the front door. geez"

    Starting to grate on me like Yukon.. hmmm

  157. And yes, it is the messenger.

  158. Anyone who still believes that any of the bought and paid for losers at the CFTC will do a damn thing to stop the corruption needs to see a shrink. And that includes Bart "Controlled Opposition" Chilton. Please, people, grow up.

  159. Any ideas about what the EE's next trick will be to slam silver?

  160. Fortinbras, the AGQ was only one of my "basket" and was about 4% of the total out of the 40ish stocks I own. Still, a loss is a loss when it's sold. I consider my mining shares (paper) to be more valuable and hold more promise than the US Dollar and almost as liquid. In a way, I consider shares just growth oriented dry powder.

    The portfolio came down about 20% overall due to the May Day shenanigans of the usual suspects.

    Not a trader, although I admire you guys on this board that are... although I'm very concerned that some of the newcomers are going to have an experience they won't ever forget with this rigged game. I'm somewhere between a trader and investor in mindset, I know my own limits and priorities of time so I doubt I'll ever open a trading account.

    Kinda fun reading some of the stories on here of well-timed trades though. Don't think I could handle the stress frankly.

  161. Sun Tzu said: In the operations of war,
    where there are in the field a thousand swift chariots,
    as many heavy chariots, and a hundred thousand
    mail-clad soldiers, with provisions enough to carry them
    a thousand li, the expenditure at home and at the front,
    including entertainment of guests, small items such as
    glue and paint, and sums spent on chariots and armour,
    will reach the total of a thousand ounces of silver per day.
    Such is the cost of raising an army of 100,000 men

  162. @Pailin - same strategy here. In and out quickly, $1 rides, dip buying, small order sizes.

    I read Turd's notes and less of the comments on here except a certain few to filter out noise and trade chart closely.

    Quick question: What kinda range you using for Stop Loss?

    I'm using a fairly narrow range consistent with a successive profit strategy. So far its working but any significant volatility will stop me out - hence the small order sizes.

  163. Just an aside. Before buying a modicum of Ag last week, the last coin I bought before then was a Roman coin circa 340AD. It was $40. I'm not sure what the arb would be on that or how many generations it would take to realize.

    It fascinates me for multiple reasons. One being the time domain, the myriad amount of people that may have touched it, and the great distances it must have travelled to arrive at my palm.

    The other being the inherent irony of said coin. The impermanence of economic idioms and the permanence of the coin itself.

  164. uptofreedom - Exactly.

    The real kicker was seeing the Maguire emails sent to Ramirez and Chilton at CFTC, and the not-so-subtle, patronizing kiss off responses by Ramirez. Bart Chilton obviously didn't want any dialogue on the subject. If it were not so ruinous to so many it would be comical. It's outrageous.

    This is why I would never trade anything JPM, COMEX or any other instrument that enabled or emboldened the crooks or stall their demise when they are buried in an avalanche of gold and silver.

    The Maguire emails and the replies should be printed for all to see as a full page ad in the WSJ. Think that might get some attention?

  165. Turdle GG said...
    Any ideas about what the EE's next trick will be to slam silver?

    @Turdle: Yes. Slam silver by slamming something else (e.g. Crude).

    Why not right? Since there is still some nervousness out there after a nearly 30% drop.

    You suspect though the hands which have now entered the market (and those who held despite the correction and the margin hike supremos) are in this now to the bitter end.

  166. Larry...

    I'm with ya... my physical and my land are where I INVEST.

    My paper is where I TRADE.

    Big dfference and I think lot of people are not fortunate enough yet to be able to have BOTH positions.

    Last week was BRUTAL for me too on both the investing and trading, but I try not to pay attention at all to the physical and I'm largely successful on blanking that out, but last week was awful.

    That said, in the big picture from where I started, I can't believe how "up" I am and what I've been able to convert the "upness" into in terms of "stuff that generates revenue" (the true definition of an asset if you ask me... it has to generate income.

    I'm feeling better... this is an incredible period in time.

    Remember, wealth, like energy, can NEVER be destroyed, it is merely transfered from the unprepared to the prepared... I would say that most people on this board, regardless of position size, will be on the right side of that equation if they can be patient and stick with it... Pablo comes to mind. Kid has done all the right things for all the right reasons and is now second guessing himself... this is a great support net for him. He needs to stick with his plan... as does everyone, but make sure you have a plan! ;)

  167. JoeKa,
    well, it looks like they are already aiming at oil through margin increases.

    Maybe they change US tax rules relating to holding of PMs? Just a guess. I still think that the ultimate step will be confiscation, but we are not near that yet.

  168. @Joeka
    No stop/loss. I'm working pure market ordres, only while I'm awake, nothing on while I'm sleeping :)
    I catch my dip and if it doesn't turn profitable pretty fast, I dump it. The clock is always ticking and I don't let a trade get near a waterfall point. Too many possible pitfalls out there. Checking out for the night...GLTA + you JK.

  169. Petr said...
    silver hike took down crude
    crude hike - silver takedown
    if A than B; will if B than A hold

    I had to sell all my oil to cover my silver margin no, crude hike will not takedown silver.

  170. Fortinbras,

    What are you talking about - wealth cannot be destroyed? Of course it can.

  171. SP and RUI,
    Sorry this is late, but I want to chime in.

    Both freegold and hard money suffer from the same fatal flaw IMO. The flaw is not monetary nor fiscal, it is about justice.

    1. It is unjust for self-proclaimed elites who have access to CB open windows to get first crack at accumulating physical even at a fair and open-market price.
    2. It is also unjust for the same self-proclaimed elites who currently hold A LOT of liquid physical and below-ground stocks to suddenly restore hard currencies.

    We 'ants' often get caught up in the soft vs. hard money debate and fail to realize, like right vs. left, TPTB play both sides. FRNs and Euros are TPTB's IOUs to you, me, your children, your grandchildren, your parents and your grandparents. They owe us, we don't owe them. Justice will be served when they are fully exposed and fully pay up.

    The only just path forward is to return to first principles. Restore your rights, restore your freedoms, restore the republic and hold the international counter-fitting cartel accountable.


  172. Silver seems to want to roll over after being capped at $38... may not make 39 - 40 on this try. It just fell through my trend line.

  173. J,
    A number of physical scientists and engineers I know have been talking about trading FOREX for a living. They dig the statistical models and TA. When I ask them what would they do when the CBs intervene, they all say the same thing..."use stop losses then BTFD".

  174. Klaverius,
    I believe Fortinbras is saying real wealth cannot be destroyed, but credit can quite easily.

  175. They can change the contracts like they did to the Hunts can't they? Didn't they make all contracts sell only or something crazy like that?
    Makes margin hikes look like church bingo.

  176. Premiums on Eagles on Nucleo are near $6 tonight...currently 43.26 bid and 43.50 ask, with decent size.

  177. You can buy them from the dealer's online catalog for $41.65, but they are on delay and apparently the buyers do not want to wait. LOL!

    It's tempting to sell a few at $6 premium, though I would rather accumulate them instead.

  178. Klaverius...

    Uncle Fester is reading me right and I always use this analogy:

    "No one jumped out of a window in 1929 that owned land and metal."

    People that owned paper and leveraged items did the jumping, and they will again.

    Again, people should play paper in order to acquire "real" things.

    Yes, the rules are being changed and goal posts moved, so..... "fire and adjust"... "shoot, move and communicate."

    Just bitching about the rule changes gets us nowhere.

    I'm not saying that you are bitching, that was just a general comment.

    I always tell people this is what their options are when they don't like the situation they are in:
    1) do something about it.
    2) shut up and take it.

    Clearly, just about everyone on this board is in the #1 category. This blog is a phenomenal forum for learning, "huddling for strength" when we need to weather a storm, and generally for "doing something about it."

    The internet is a wonderful thing... where would any of us here be without it?

    Now, just how many tangents did I go off on? ;)

  179. "Premiums on Eagles on Nucleo are near $6 tonight..."

    Imagine yourself in a back alley in Russia in August 1998, trying to buy 'hard currency" U.S. dollars using your questionable Rubles. You are informed that the $ premium has gone up since the day before, and the ratio has risen from 7:1 to 8:1.

    But you make the exchange at the higher $ premium, and are vindicated several weeks later when the exchange rate soars to 20:1, and the Russian economy collapses.

  180. Off topics here but my boy ART is having a field day over there @ FOFOA blog. Go read his comments if you wanna know why money has to be hard. He's a little, let's say, frank but makes tons of sense nonetheless.

  181. Franzpick...

    True Russia story... in 1991, when the new $100 bills with the new anti-counterfeiting measures (micro-print around Frankln and the metal strip) came out... for awhile, you could exchange 1 x the new $100 bills for $120 or more of the old bills because the Russian populace was convinced that the new bill was an indicator that the US was somehow going to revalue the currency/declare the old bills "non-currency."

    I know a guy who made a nice tidy some for a short period of time changing bills!

  182. Well, we are not quite to that point yet. There are also 980 Philharmonics offered on the same exchange at $40.30, but the Eagles are just so PRETTY! Also plenty of generic stuff at near spot, so the premium is in this case due to the popularity of the coin.

  183. LOL! I might just want to swap some Eagles for slightly more equally pretty Philharmonics then.

  184. Well how about that Sprott news.

    I've been mentioning to my close family that Sprott Hedge funds are selling their PSLV shares to gain the 15% premium and what no site has talked about is the implications. Where will Sprott hedge funds would put millions of silver ounces worth of cash? Physical of course! Last week Eric's interview also confirmed that is exactly what he is doing.

    It's essentially the same as an ipo. His hedge funds are selling the shares to new investors. the physical remains in PSLV at the Canadian mint in new hands. Meanwhile, Sprott is taking the cash and going out and removing more physical from the market. Brilliant move!

    Enter Sprott physical silver mutual fund... investors -check. Sprott hedge fund 1 & 2 ready! First order of business for the new corporation - Go purchase physical and tighten the supply side of the market.

    Coincidence? I think not.

  185. @ U.Fester

    Thanks for the input.

    You are right at this stage it's not about fair anymore since it's pretty much everyone for him/her self: If you can get some metals you grab them; if not, oh well, watch out. They say only 5-10% of participants can get out whenever a big bubble goes off. Now that the entire world is in a Dollar bubble so just imagine the kinda chaos ahead of us. Yikes!!

    Hard-money vs Free Gold debate is trying to decide what the best form is after all madness settles down, not now. :-)

  186. Fortinbras...

    Interesting, and when a similar public anticipation of currency exchange takes hold in the U.S, which IMHO is the unspoken fear of TPTB, you'll see 3 digit Ag in days.

    My "suit" FBI friend tells me the metal strip allows magnetic scanners to estimate the amount of money in a bundle inside a pocket or briefcase or suitcase.

    But I stopped listening to his disinfo years ago.

  187. J.- trendlines are ways banksters hook fishes. Trendlines break all the time and the banks are there painting those breaks and buying what you sell in fear. Just my opinion but horizontal support and resistance is much better to use. Why? Because most don't use them, the banksters use them and most retail uses trendlines.

  188. This comment has been removed by the author.

  189. Is it just my broker's feed or did spot gold just spike down to 1,506 then up again to 1,512 in about 10 seconds?

  190. I think Jim Sinclair may have just given another warning to those who are short TRE:

    "Here is an image just taken of shorts of junior explorers and producers."
    (the picture is of an ostrich with its head in the sand).

  191. When I hear about shortages of physical silver at dealers around the county, I still have doubts that it's as bad as has been suggested. I live very close to the largest privately held mint in the country and they are selling 100/oz. bars for just $1.10 above spot and if you buy 500/oz. or more it's just $0.95 above spot. As of right now they have a 100/oz. for $3,895.

    I don't doubt the fundamentals and I don't have any doubt that demand is high but I wonder how much of the shortage is due to production rather than supply.

  192. Rui, if I may offer a thought on hard money:

    Hard money is not a panacea. The principal feature of hard money is that it governs the supply of the currency. But hard money (gold, silver, anything tangible) is inconvenient. People will turn to paper, digital currency etc. for ease of use. Once the currency becomes representative, the supply is limited not by the hard asset, but by the will of the regulators. A symbolic currency inevitably will inflate beyond its hard asset backing through easy credit, fractional reserve lending, etc. Stresses on the system cause it to fail. Money supply contracts as the fake units of currency are exposed. An economic downturn ensues because of lack of money. And the problem is that there is no way to avoid the pain. Purely hard money currencies are subject to repeated and often intractable bouts of deflation.

    If the problem is the shortage of money, why not have an easy money and a hard money? The paper money can be used to transact, lend and barrow and the hard money can be saved to preserve wealth. In those periods of stress, the easy money can flow, it is not restricted by any physical limitation. The money supply is inflated, but the separation of the wealth asset, the hard money, from the transactional or easy money spares the saver of the inflation. In the inflation the hard money increases in price and more importantly value. The hard asset is not subject to inflation confiscation which is so pernicious in the current system. Not only that, but the unrestricted easy money softens the blow of the economic downturn.

    It appears that in divorcing the unit of account function from the store of value function of the currency that it provides a much better currency system.

  193. "J", can you post a picture of what a french curve line on a chart looks like (like the charts Turd draws)? I'm having a hard time envisioning what you're supposed to do with a french curve to identify buy and sell points. Thanks.

    BTW, What inflection points does the french curve method indicate next?

  194. rthaler71

    Did you come up with that all on your own? NO

    If you want to quote Stewart Thompson, at least give the man credit.

  195. This is from a book written about 1850 on the subject of Money:

    The relative value of gold and silver at different periods has been:

    In ancient Greece and Rome 1 to 12

    In Greece, after the conquests of Alexander the
    Great 1 to 10

    In Italy, after the conquests of Julius Ciesar... 1 to 9

    After the conquest of Sicily by the Romans, where large quantities of silver were found.. 1 to I7

    At the end of the 15th century, in Europe 1 to 11

    In England, In 1604 1 to 12 1/2

    In England, in 1626 1 to 13 1/3

    In 1641, in France 1 to 13 1/2

    In 1641, in Spain 1 to 14

    In England, in 1666 1 to 14 1/2

    In England, in 1717 1 to 15 1/5

    In the middle of the 18th century, in Holland.. 1 to 14 1/2

    In the middle of the 18th century, in France.. 1 to 15

  196. Ben Davies on CNBC:

  197. The Chinese are not buying until after May 18 when the HKMEx starts trading. We will hit new highs in a few weeks and all you holders of AGQ @ 45+ will regain your losses.