Wednesday, May 11, 2011


Wow, this stuff can sure turn around in a hurry!

I expected the mid-month weakness to begin last Friday. It began, instead, a week earlier.
I expected a dip of 10% or so. Instead, the dip was over 30%.
I saw a turnaround bottom on Cinqo de Bottomo and looked for a rally to 1520 and 39.50.
I expected a gradually steepening, 4-day selloff back down toward 35 in silver and 1495 in gold. Instead, my gradually steepening selloff took only 4 hours and here we are. What's next?

How the hell should I know? Seriously.
The only thing that I can see is a POSX that has maxxed out its Calvin bounce and commodities that are being intentionally driven off a cliff to give the Fed room to posture. It's all bs. However, IF you are attempting to trade this nonsense, you'd better be buying yourself some time and, once you get long, you'd better have the courage of your convictions to hang in there. You'd also better have some significant capital reserves.

For now, here are updates of the exact same four charts I gave you a scant six hours ago. First up, our fearless leader. In percentage terms, gold continues to hang tough. If it were moving like silver and crude, it would be down $75-150. I told you this morning that I want to buy some June calls at $1500 but there is no sense in getting in a hurry. I'm going to sit idly by again tomorrow and wait for Friday. If Lady Luck smiles upon me, I'll get a chance to buy then near 1490.
Silver is simply remarkable. Notice something potentially important, however. Take a close look at the two areas I've circled. They are today's action and last Thursday's. Note that they are almost identical. Since I am "pattern recognition boy", this immediately caught my eye. Let's watch this thing very closely overnight. IF we consolidate this afternoon and evening around 35 and then dip tomorrow morning toward 34, it may very well be an opportunity to do some bottom fishing. We'll see.
Crude reeks of manipulation. Not the Cartel-type we see in the PM pits where paper contract issuance overwhelms the bid and drives price lower. No, this is the heavy hand of government manipulation.
1) President and dipshit AG declare economic "war" on evil speculators.
2) Start rumors to scare longs and create volatility.
3) Raise margins ostensibly to "control volatility" YOU created.
4) Start fresh batch of rumors.
5) Longs rush out, fearing more margin hikes.
6) Halt trading to really freak out longs.
7) Raise margins again to "control volatility" YOU continue to create.
Did the crude market see 4-5% daily moves before or after O'bottom got involved? Answer this question and you'll have your answer as to why commodities are moving the way they are.
And here's an updated picture of the POSX:
The Living Dead.

OK, seriously. It's gone about as far as I can see it going on this bounce.
Hang in there. The next 24-48 hours are going to be rough and crazy volatile. Do not be foolish and try to impress your friends by calling a bottom. Let this nonsense play out and I'll try to tell you when its safe to get back in the water.

I'll be out for the rest of the day and evening but I'll try to stop by the comments section every now and then and add thoughts, if necessary. TF


  1. Someone please shoot the damn zombie in the head, for God's sake.

  2. @Diamond, I am sorry to hear that you are still holding AGQ. It is not meant to be for long term holding. I use it for day trading as bid/ask is even cheaper than XAG at FX trading but I am honestly starting to worry to see too many people are trading it without knowing what/who is behind. Here is the link for further details on what I said in previous posting:

  3. Thanks Turd!

    Interesting times indeed and the powers that be are getting desperate. Its just another straw on the camels back.

  4. i cant get over how unbelievably ironic the fight against commodity speculators.........the fed creates QE2, forces everyone into risk assets (crude, gold, stocks) because the market has no other choice, and then congress cries bloody murder when people do what they are told

  5. Looking for scuba as my CEF and PHS seems to be going underwater. Still holding, not sure for how long though..

  6. thanks Turd, maybe a flag system on the new site's home page? baywatch lifeguard style

  7. Greeting from Sweden

    Turd, your 39.50 target has saved me a lot of money and put me in a very strong position for a soon arriving bottom. Thank you and keep up your fantastic work. I am sure I speak for many here who consider this the most important PM site on the web.

    I will donate some fiat to this fantastic site so that it can become even better.

  8. Got stop lossed out while I was following a seminar. Returned to my computer to find a nice bit of profit retained, and AGQ lower than what I bought it at. This is all going awfully fast.

    Crude below 100 is, at pretty much any point in time, hilariously inappropriate, but it's always nice to get stuff for cheap, so I'll be patient. The only problem I got is that I don't know what to buy first. It's like your favorite store suddenly has everything at bargin prices and you have to pick.

    Silver and crude are the easy ones. Next to that...perhaps sugar is still a nice one. Apart from that... not sure yet. Haven't got a good enough handle on the grains lately, otherwise I might buy some DAG at the end of this week.

    Oh, and here's some Jim Rogers for your amusement.

    "I will be shorting US bonds. I would probably be doing it today if I weren't here.

    Bonds in the US have been in a bull market for 30 years. In my view that's coming to an end... If any of you have bonds I would urge you to go home and sell them. If any of you are bond portfolio managers I would get another job. - in a conference in Edinburg today"

  9. Bots are set at 35.40 closing out todays action. Hong Kong will push it back up, and a dollar reversal will have us back up to 37 in now time. Bounced off the bottom 3 or 4 times today and the buyers came in large. Why try to time for an extra .50, when it could be up 2.50 by the morning?

  10. @waffen - you think silver bullets would do?

  11. Thanks, a.

    Jon-erik: Just like anything else, the criminal politicians and bankers create the problem and then deflect the blame by placing it squarely upon someone else's shoulders. Pathetic.

  12. Feels like the setup before more easing is announced. BTFD.

  13. @FreeBoundary

    Thanks for the link and your thoughts. So now that my holdings in AGQ are down roughly 52%, what would you say I do? Selling would really hurt. Even if silver gets back to the high 40s, you don't think AGQ would rise back even to the 300s?

  14. Yep that zombie is a reeeal good representation of the US sawbuck. Poor thing doesn't have a chance.

    On the other hand I think TF's possible projection of silver reaching down in the $34.50 (or below) area will mark an excellent chance to trade in some Zombies for the "Metal with the Silvery Luster of Life".

  15. Thanks for the update Turd.. In looking at that silver chart, a bounce at this level would possibly bring us back too $42..we shall see.

    In the mean time powder dry.

  16. Good choice of zombie - Resident Evil (aka Biohazard)(video game not movie)

  17. Man, my buyfinger is twitching soooo bad.

  18. the cartel saw some easy pickings for a raid today on dollar "strength". I was watching the price action, and the buyers defended 35 vigorously. It's going to take a sustained, high volume raid for the cartel to push it through 35. So far, they have not had that conviction, but do seem content today with pushing it down when it reaches 35.40.

  19. Ginger, others,
    I find the 70/30 works to ease the mind. Most of this is a psychological game of pain.By utilizing puts you make some cash to ease the pain of the downdraft.The miners will pay off big time but we must endure much pain WHILE hoping they stay down to accumulate more. My $19 '12 slv puts up 35%(bought Fri.) the only green on the screen. 70% of everything else is '12 as I think we are in for a mean ass slog of a summer. I can't time or trade worth &^*%$ so I'll just watch. Bury your miners don't even look at them that's what I do. I found out thru 321gold that my #1 natgas play was up 78% in one day! Everyone worries about the ee but it is ourselves that do us the most harm just as the ee will destroy themselves.Be very careful see how all the Big Boys are warning us about trading. Turd, Atlee and a FEW others know what they are doing, and they will still be missing some fingers at the end of this. I learned to snow ski and windsurf by following friends who were pros, sometimes I'd forget in the excitement that I wasn't. Out of bounds on Ajax in a snowslide or 15'+ sets rollin in at Ho'okipa is a serious wakeup. Same same this market. On that note it's off to the beach. Someone please call me at 28/50 as I'm covered for both. A hui hou malama pono kakou.

    finally learned to copy and paste

  20. "An extra 'gut check' for the over eager dip buyer perhaps, and a sign of things to come as the battle intensifies over the June futures and deliveries."


  21. I think I may swing by the coin shop before I head home and pick up some pre-64 dimes...hey, times are tough here and I need silver...I can afford 10-20 of's close enough of a dip for me!

  22. @Diamond, good news is that slippage wouldn't be that big in your case. If silver recovers close to $49 then you would recover most. You can compare historical prices of AGQ and SLV to confirm. I was stressing it for people who thought of holding AGQ for years in retirement fund. Why not just buy PSLV instead for long term holding instead? As for your selling/holding, I am really nobody to make any recommendation. Sorry...

  23. Martin Armstrong could be turning out to be a genius with his call "June price of GOLD could be the lowest of the year". After that he said look out..SILVER to follow. Anyone know the lowest price of GOLD this year?

  24. to kill a zombie you gotta cut his dick off and suck the poison out. later turd

  25. I have been a metal bull for years, but recent silver action chased me out. I booked a sale at Kitco yesterday for all of my physical silver for a double, missing the 8+% drop today.

    Still a gold bull, but I am out of silver for a good while. Dangerous currents.

  26. @Turd - I'm still all-in long - please talk me off the ledge (figuritively of course). Please tell we start a slow climb next week or by month end even. The fundamentals haven't changed (right?) so how long could this manipulation go on? I'm trying not to panic but if it goes down another 10%...I'm fearful I'll hit the panic button. Please talk me off that ledge and how you see this thing unfolding Fter we hit bottom.

  27. Repost from previous thread...

    atlee said...

    "you can always tell when high school lets out by the posters who show up on the blog."

    No doubt.

    Selling May 160 AGQ put b4 the close, case we get a little bounce into the morning hrs, hedge for my May 210 put.

    Atlee, the periods on the stochastics that you mentioned, is that the full stochastic on the netdania charts?


  28. Turd, It's been a while but nice work sir. I appreciate your insights. Keep it up.

  29. New people, stop and listen to @FreeBoundary in regards to AGQ.

    If you want to Buy and Hold like a traditional investment then please consider calls and puts on AGQ. This will lower your risk and still allow you to benefit from the high volatility in silver. If you do not trade options yet then just call your broker for the first couple of trades.

    PUTs especially work in your favor in regards to AGQ because of the decay.

  30. Just saw a local Craigslist ad for a quantity of Peace & Morgan Silver Dollars at just under $27 apiece.

    Itchy to buy these, but will stay sitting on the fence for now.

    IMHO this 'correction' is not yet over. Another dip or three will scare more weak hands into selling their stacks and provide an even better buying opportunity.

  31. I for one hope the phyzz goes lower still...I bought 3 times last week, 20oz's each time from the low 40's through 39's then again in the 37's. WTF was I doing!?
    I got jumpy and didn't realize it was going to continue heading south that hard core. No biggee since I fully believe it should be over 75 by the end of the year. Sooner?? Higher??
    But I just got more zombie's from my Monex deal yesterday, so I'd like to buy about 60oz's more as low as possible to try and average out those higher priced zombie/silver swaps I did last week.
    Called GVille Coins today to check status on delivery of my silvery Buffalos and they said not until "maybe the 26th"! Ouch!
    They said Sunshine Mint hasn't even minted everything they've ordered from them so far this month. Crazy.
    But on a bright note, at least nearly ALL my miners have continued to get seriously slaughted in unison over the past few weeks. All I see is red...more like "redrum" on my board.
    But I'm holding on long and look at this as just another chance to buy more of them at a deep discount.
    I can't wait for the days ahead when the EE starts to crumble and the miners breakout free from the EE's chains and my board lights up bright green day after day!
    That'll be freakin' sweet...

  32. let me remind you sheep of something.
    The way u make money in the commodity markets and the stock markets is by buying on FEAR.

    And I see a lot of that here.

  33. This is not a joke: A friend of mine was crossing the border into Detroit from Windsor and the border guard in the booth asked him "Are you carrying any gold?"


    Canadian Bill


    In short, Next Monday we officially are over the debt limit?

  35. On the topic of slippage, AGQ, and ZSL.

    Wouldn't it be more lucrative to short ZSL (yes, short the double short) in a silver bull than to buy AGQ because of the slippage?

    Just some data. Back in 8/24/10 ZSL was at 137, now it's at 21.70. That's, I hope I get this right, about 630%.

    AGQ was, on 8/24/20, at 60, and it's now at 183. That's a gain of about 305%.

    Of course, it's not as easy as just holding on to your AGQ's, but all in all, shorting ZSL, an ETF that through slippage will go to zero at some point, seems like a smart thing to do.

    Sadly, haven't got a margin account, can't short. So I'll buy AGQ again when the time is right. But I was wondering whether I'm understanding this correctly. It feels weird.

  36. mc2560-

    Lighten up, Francis!

    I'm not seeing much fear around the place, there are some folks who are impatient (including myself) to get the game on, but I'm seeing a lot of confidence born of hard-earned knowledge and some faith in the Turd's prognostications.

  37. Turd,

    Can you please provide your thoughts on EXK - when do you see it bottoming out and your thoughts on its future price by year end.


  38. Economic Analyst,

    I believe he based it on the major support lines for gold which were around 1400 i believe... he wrote an article about it a few months ago...
    According to armstrong, we may rally from mid may till end of may and then correct till mid june ( which lines up with his panic cycle). Silver could test 28 dollars during that time frame... the lows will set us up for the bullish rally till 2016..

    His latest article on silver was posted on may 2nd.
    Basically-short term traders could get killed by June 13th.

  39. Econimoc analyst,

    ALso, Im not sure how june will be the lows for the year when january was around 1300... is he suggesting we tank 200 dollars by then?

  40. @turd

    Given all the good you are trying to do, I hate to say this (especially because by observation also deals with a tool that you have mastered and relied on for so long), but technical, or chart analysis can-at best--only be seen as partially (if at all effective) in these rigged markets. And this is true now more than ever. Look at the impunity with which the bank cartel is doing what it wants to. Look at what happened to crude today.

    As long as the CFTC does not restore order to the markets (i.e. end price manipulation), there will be no way to sanely foresee anything; except, that you can bet on the fact that the banksters will continue to jack us around at whim. This will continue until the CFTC puts an end to the at-will actions of the banksters, or until the markets and/or economy implodes ... or a black swan event happens.

    Read the following zerohedge article to appreciate this phenomenon:


  41. FreeBoundary, thank you for that reassurance re: AGQ. I will be certain to get out of it when it gets back to 376, however long that takes. I'll then understand it as something to trade with, and not hold long-term. I realize now that it's not backed by Ag, as PSLV is.

    I think, for now, I'd like to simply let the summer go by, and wait until late August, early September to start buying mining shares. (Unless a broader market crash is something to really worry about, in which case, who knows when would be a good time to buy mining companies.)

  42. Canadian Bill, bizarre. Why would anyone in their right mind bring gold from Canada into the US - that corrupt bastion of currency debasement and government over reaching?

    I could easily see a flight of gold out of the US that intensifies over time.

  43. I just bought a bit of silver at $1.29/oz. - I went to the bank at lunchtime to do some transactions and bought a bunch of dimes...of which 2 were silvers. Its hard to go negative on that, as the face value of the coin is the same, so if silver goes to $1.00 or $0.50 as some would like (myself included), I could still spend them and not lose.

    I really wish that I could do that every day, and do it with many more than 2 dimes, but that's not very likely.

  44. @Diamond, that's a sound plan. From the tone you are talking now, I am sure you will be much richer within a year. Just remember one thing: never invest in what you don't full understand. Best luck to you.

  45. @ILUVPMS if $1300 is the low it looks like we will be there in June. He stated once the low of the year in JUNE hits, GOLD will skyrocket. Lets see if he's right. I believe he even had the exact day, I can't remember it though. I have been following him for 20 some odd years. He is uncanny with his Princeton Economic Model that Goldman Sachs so desperately wants.

  46. 4-5 month reader, 1st post.

    Congratulations on 6 months, Turd. Appreciate what you do here very much, a great teacher short cutting my work in PM market research.

    Got stopped out of ZSL three times today due to too tight stops. It was 'education' money and I learned. Funny how they shake you off like that. Each stop popped then whoosh - back off to the up trend. OK, OK, I get it . . .

    Suggestion for the new site: comment stream modding, lets the comment cream rise to the top.

    Suggestion for that zombie: Double Tap.

  47. Prepare to be stunned.....dollar move is predicated on a weakening euro.......all for dollar to break 80 gl

  48. @Canadian Bill

    Bill I used to go regularly to Caesar's Windsor to shoot dice. I can attest to the fact that they are concerned people are moving cash and valuables out of the country. After a deeply personal and thorough search of my 'packages', I decided I could get my dice kicks at one of the U.S. casinos :-0!

    Frankly, I think it's starting to look like mid-1930's Deutschland around here.

  49. Turd, ever get the feeling Blythe is just toying with you? ;^) Kidding! You're doing awesome giving us useful guideposts in a massively manipulated market.

    C'mon Blythe baby, take us down to $28 (or at least $32) this week. Please?

  50. Damn, Mammoth, you find some killer deals on your craigslist. CL here is dry, except for a few wannabe sellers trying to get eBay prices.

  51. Get out of every paper asset; stocks especially: US Mint gold/silver bullion coins receiving favored status with no capital gains.. We'll see many more months where gold eagles are off the charts from the US Mint, if the mint can keep them in stock. Can't keep silver eagles in stock. I see states front running their own legislation to exit the FRN. Follow this web site occasionally to see what states are ratifying gold/silver legal tender laws and what states are being added to the list
    of 15 currently. These states don't want any more shrink-er USDinker dollars in their treasuries. You may know the measured exit out of paper fiat dollars is accelerating by ratifications and more states wanting in on
    gold/silver preserving a states wealth over debasing paper dollars. Looks to me like the last one out of federal reserve notes and USDinker dollar assets loses. Wouldn't try to outguess the rat basturds. Could lock down the whole financial system tomorrow.

  52. EA,
    Armstrong says " a low" and " a june low testing the top of the PRIMARY CHANNEL".
    I always read Armstrong many times to digest and comprehend what he is telling us, and sometimes I still don't understand. He is one of the most misread/understood out there in my opinion. The man knows more than anyone. You may want to go back and read what he says about people calling him a genius. But for lack of a better word....Everyone pales in comparison to this man. I stay waiting for his book Geometry of Time.

    AGQ too pricy for newbies (and us "foodstamp" investors) try slv-sivr better to lose a nail than a finger...or hand. Price tracks ag easier to understand.

  53. Not sure you can tax advantage ASEs and not Maples without creating a trade disadvantage issue that violates NAFTA, should Canada desire to challenge it.

  54. For all those who place the blame for PM flash crashes on poor Blythe Masters, please take a good look at her real boss. "President Obama's Chief of Staff, William Dale, President Barack Obama's chief of staff holds more than $7.6 million worth of stock in JPMorgan Chase, according to a regulatory filing.

    William M. Daley, vice chairman at JPMorgan Chase, holds 175,678 shares in the $2.1 trillion behemoth, the nation's second-largest bank by assets. Daley headed the firm's Corporate Responsibility division, which included oversight of the firm's lobbyists and relations with government officials.

    I think Turd needs to include him in the next video.

  55. FED almost needs a Dow Jones crash as the excuse for QE3, and that's what happened last year before QE2. Remember then Dow Jones was flirting with 9XXX pts. They'd likely engineer a temporary selloff in the commodity market first, which is happening now, and then let Dow Jones soften as well. After that they'd argue they have to sth about it so there you go - QE3, and no political will would fight it.

  56. Thank you again, FreeBoundary. I will be sure, now, to do my DD, re: mining shares I'll consider. I bought some ASE's and Buffalos last summer, at 18.42 and 17.52. It feels good to have those. I don't currently know how to trade options, so I'm thinking that using much of my free time during the summer to learn options trading, and not getting bogged down by watching the choppy markets and getting nothing done, would be a wiser idea. As it is, having been watching my AGQ, and THM, EXK, AG, and CZL get squashed these past couple weeks has been maddening. (I think I'll hold those latter miners through the summer, hoping they don't get flattened.) I'd love to just unplug from the world until August.

  57. Turd, thanks again for your great analysis and maintaining this site which I think is just about the best on the web for everything but porn (although I'm starting to form a nice visual of BM on all 4s)

    I'm not an active trader but have been a believer in physical silver for a long time. I'm a prisoner of a small IRA that forces me to invest in cash or other pumped up assets. Two months ago I went all in on the miners and ETFs. When you sounded the alarm a couple weeks ago I decided to stay all in, regardless of what happens. Sure I could liquidate and park it in cash, but I asked myself what is really safer in the long term -- silver, cash, commodities, stocks, bonds? Its easy to sleep at night when you've got the cycles of history on your side -- 5000 years vs. 100. Again, I'm not a trader and may go several days without looking at my portfolio.

    The best thing about a Turd is that it doesn't bullshit you. Some Turds may be messy, smelly or painful, but they always are truthful and honest. Keep it up bro.

  58. I am ordering another 10 oz of silver now.

  59. Jim Sinclair is the best in explaining Martin Armstrong. He puts it in laymans' terms, although he speaks riddles too, so its a lot of deciphering! Martin Armstrong's latest on SILVER, doesn't look good short term:
    The Silver Crash of 2011?

    The main support lies at $28. This will be the critical area to watch for year-end. A closing BELOW this level will signal a decline into 2012.

    We have two primary possibilities for a low shaping up on the horizon. WE could create that spike low and BOTTOM precisely on June 13th/14th in a few weeks, and this would tend to suggest we may be more likely than not going to see the 1980 high of $54 exceeded by 2013. The other possibility remains the fact that the low could extend for 2.15 years into the next turning point on the Economic Confidence Model.

  61. Diamond, hope I was any help to you. As you mention option, I haven't still done my promise of writing option primer here. I worked as option quant before at wall street firm and at least understand some of risk associated with it. When time permits, will try to write some in layman's term. Now, I tend to think option is better than other leveraged trade if you much trade those stuff. You don't really want to wake up and see your futures down 100K which is now definite possibility on a regular basis. With option, all you can lose is the premium, just a few thousands bucks for each contract.

  62. @Turd,

    Best place to buy gold is 1462-1444. Further deleveraging will probably hit gold and knock it below 1490 in the coming days.

  63. More Martin Armstrong SILVER:
    ...especially if we close year-end below $28.
    The force of this decline is encouraging. The
    faster it comes down, the shorter the
    duration: remember 1987, 1929-32. This
    could lead to a marginal bounce into the
    last weeks of May, and from there silver will
    turn down into the June 13th target.
    The sharp spike rally was in line with a
    Phase Transition in Silver – NOT gold. This
    has been distinguished by a virtual doubling
    in price since January. Anytime a market
    doubles like this in the last few months
    going into a high, it is the kiss of death.
    Silver, of course, has not broken out above
    its 1980 high as did gold. This is largely due
    to the fact that silver remains the most
    manipulated precious metal of the entire
    group. It is routinely played with by the NY
    crowd and anybody you says such things is
    immediately attacked with venom. Silver is
    the playground for the CLUB. Yes you can
    make a lot of money on these moves.
    However, never forget that the game is
    rigged and the regulators always turn a
    blind eye. In oil, the Department of Justice
    is bowing to the general view that prices are
    manipulated and claim to be starting an
    investigation. Don’t worry. They will never
    prosecute the NY boys. It’s just the typical
    noise to pretend to be independent!
    So for now, this is the key support area to
    watch. The jury is still out and the future
    may be bullish long-term, but the shortterm
    can kill you.

  64. @Turd,

    btw, the dollar is showing the potential for a weekly "break out" with a weekly close above 76.20 (cash) being a sign of a more prolonged rally.

  65. ILUVPMS: I think that EXK would be extremely attractive at a double bottom near 8.50

  66. Call me stupid but I am taking some profit on my physical silver. Sellng a percentage of my holdings only.

  67. Aria Pro II
    A sheep and his skin are soon parted.

  68. You try to outguess these mofos? The rat bastards in bed with corrupt government will shut down the financial system as 911. You think you have time to get out of USDinker dollar FRN's and related assets but you'll never have enough gold/silver bullion in your hands should the financial system be shut down tomorrow. Don't think the vermin ilk can't and won't do it if cornered when all the frauds, lies; perpetrated upon AmeriCON'd run a self evident truth awakening among the masses. The vampire squids will strangle every access to funds AmeriCON'd has overnight. Suddenly as a thief in the night.

  69. not trying to outguess them.
    I bought today because when the sheep are scared stiff u buy more.

  70. I'm considering selling calls of an inverse silver ETF. But I don't want it leveraged, like ZSL. Could you recommend me an inverse silver ETF? I only know SSIL, but that one trades in EUR, I would prefer one that trades in USD.


  71. I didn't plan on letting go of any amount of phys. silver... but the bidding ( The Bay )I have been getting even during this pullback is hard to resist... especially w the Yellow Metal moving back under 1500... Not looking to jump ship at all . but still manage a good return from my silver, why not swap some gains for Some Yellow? ;)

  72. Many honest American citizens will be prepared and have oil in their lamps. A great many will not and be devoured by the beast. Having no light in them. Having insufficient light or truth within them to abide the day. They will wonder off into strange paths and die spiritually!!

  73. @FreeBoundary:

    Thank you again. You may not think you said a whole lot to ease my anxiety this evening here in small-town upstate Hudson Valley NY, but you did. In that regard, you were a great help. I look forward to seeing your option primer one of these days here. (I hope I don't miss it.) Tomorrow when I'm driving down to northern NJ to look for a new place to live, I'll be listening to the audio book of "Getting Started in Options," by Michael C. Thomsett.

  74. Afrums on a roll today....I bet he has quite an interesting background:)

  75. I'm putting in a few stink bids on Nucleo, but keeping them small. I think we have another down leg of equal size coming.

    There is a certain symmetry to these computer generated moves one starts to recognize after enough times.

  76. Yup mc2560. AmeriCON'd where the honest fill their lamps with oil; sufficient to abide the day and prepare continually. Sheeple fast asleep! Lulled into some hypnotic carnal security!! Don't forget food storage; ammo & guns; water and purification equipment. The beast is hungry and will devour those who have not learned correct principle, then live it to govern their own lives.

  77. @mc...

    Just yesterday you were complaining about how the "sheep" were excited about the recent bounce, how your exalted professor agreed with your bear analysis, and endless "bubble" and "mania phase" talk. You even stated how you bought at the high and were a sucker.

    Today everyone else is a "sheep" and you're buying because you're not.

    So which is it?

  78. Afrum said...
    "...more states wanting in on gold/silver preserving a states wealth over debasing paper dollars."
    Wait a second - aren't half the states already broke? This means that they don't really have any fiat in their coffers to convert into PM's.

  79. I wonder if this was the "event" Eil was referring to that made his models suggest a 10% correction in equities??

    NO ONE is really talking about this, but we ARE sneaking up on the debt limit. Unless a debt ceiling raise is passed, if we go past the limit, that is the beginning of a default, no??

    And a "surprise" announcement of that might really rattle the markets.

    Here, look over here, OBL is dead!

    No look here, here is the long form birth certificate!

    All the while, the math builds up...

  80. I didn't buy ALL of the silver at the high. Only some.

  81. @Diamond, considering all the great wisdom I have learned here, I feel good that I made small contribution today:)

    I feel that you are a wise man based on your plan. Money can be always recovered later if you are patient enough, but lost health can't be recovered. So sleep well and don't worry about your losing position on a daily basis. Good luck again to you all others in red.

  82. "Afrums on a roll today....I bet he has quite an interesting background:)"

    For those who don't know, a reference to the Parable of the Ten Maidens, a scriptural instruction relating to the preparedness of the Church for the return of Christ.

    There's at least two levels of analogy here, in view of the eschatological implications of a global financial crisis.

  83. and that "high" was right before Bernanke's speech that sent the silver market up for the last time before the crash.

  84. Aria- I sold some yesterday at the top of the dead cat bounce. Im awfully tempted to buy some gold with proceeds. Feel naked without it. May start averaging in tomorrow if we see 1490.

  85. Regarding AGQ and slippage, have a look at this chart:,$SILVER

    AGQ's a 2x etf, yet it's gained more than double than silver. Over the past 200 days AGQ peaked at 563.39%, silver peaked at 176.69%. It gained more than twice what silver did. Last weeks low for AGQ brought it down to +225.72%, silvers bottomed out at 98.11%.

    Something off here? It's performing like it's a 2.5x etf, or there's reverse decay or something...

  86. @uptofreedom,
    I guess it is because of compounding on a daily basis. Like your bank saving account compounds more often than it accumulates more than simple compounding. Likewise, you loss will compound as well. But I am not an expert with this leveraged fund, please take my words with grain of salt:)

  87. Well mc, just try not to let today's price get to you. If you're a buyer and holder of physical, I'm guessing you're not trying to flip it so quickly.. so eventually you will make profit on your holdings, even that part you bought near the top.

    My report from the coin store: I managed to interrogate one of the owner's.. he said people were lined up on Saturday before the open to buy silver and gold. Most people were concerned silver wouldn't drop below the low $30's again. Not so sure according to many analyses, but we will see. That's the general sentiment among the retail physical investors. As I was there, a woman came in to buy Mercury dimes. She said she'd be back for more tomorrow, just as soon as she could max out her daily ATM limit again..

  88. When it comes to the subject of "speculation" in the oil market, I wrote about this back in the end of April.

  89. observe the last 30 mins trading pattern, 14:16 thru 14:40, controlled HFT intra day floating contracts unwinding or a bug in the trading robots?

  90. yes I am a strong hand and these price drops don't scare me.

  91. Turd, you said, "Crude reeks of manipulation. Not the Cartel-type we see in the PM pits where paper contract issuance overwhelms the bid and drives price lower. No, this is the heavy hand of government manipulation."

    One question:

    At what point did the government leave the Cartel?

  92. @uptofreedom: AGQ's decay got messed up by the more or less continual uptrend finishing in the parabolic. In a more normal market there would have been more down days. I expect if there are too many successive down days the opposite will happen ie more loss than the decay predicts.

    Interestingly the Canadian version HZU.TO just underwent a reverse 3:1 split. I suspect that was to correct the phenomenon you described.

  93. mc2560 (and others)

    Where does this idea that it's somehow blasphemous to part with physical silver come from? This really makes no sense on many levels. In my view, Aria Pro II's only mistake here is to be selling in the thirties rather than in the forties last week. Look -

    1. Silver isn't money. Silver won't protect you if TSHTF. I'm sorry, but this is true. Silver is a leveraged play on gold (at best) or pure speculation (at worst). No significant nation will attempt to construct a hard currency backed by a consumable resource, no matter what the economic circumstances are. When the IMF comes knocking, the first question will be, 'how much gold do you have'. 'How much silver do you have' will never be asked.

    2. I thought the idea was to make some money here. We can argue about the definition of 'money' till the cows come home, but by any standard if you sell in the forties and buy back in the twenties (or low thirties), you've gained (either ounces or fiat, whichever you prefer). Holding through a crash/temporary bear market/short tearm bear market is TERRIBLE trading. This goes double for a leveraged play like silver.

    3. For even the truly PM obsessed the point has to be to exploit the GSR. I've traded for years, but only recently started out in PMs (just before 'Turd's Bottom') The aim even to me as a noob was to use silver to get as much gold as possible. This strategy has worked wonderfully so far. If silver really plummets further, I'll be tempted to convert back from gold into silver, but even then it's only with a view to getting even more gold when the GSR snaps back.

    So, please, can we dispense with this idea that anyone who sells a lump of metal is somehow a Judas figure or ridiculously foolish? Really, I feel a lot less foolish for dumping my 3 kilos of silver at a good price than those who are still clinging to their metal (and, good lord, their AGQ, bought at $48 or $49).

    I'm sorry for this - I'm really not trolling. But I think it needs to be said. If you get too attached to a particular investment you get steam-rollered. End of story.

  94. With daily volitility aside, I expected silver to be in the mid/upper 20's and into the low/mid 30's this spring. While I doubted those predictions and thought I missed something when it hit $50, I can clearly see that we were in a bubble of sorts. Silver as a whole is not and the fundamentals are strong and if history does indeed repeat itself, I expect silver to eventually hit $60-$100 sometime in the distant future. For now, I think we will hover between $35-$40 more or lessbefore ending the year in the mid/upper 40's or possibly right at $50.

  95. My life has been spared many times, when it should have been taken. Beyond that I'm as common as your neighbor is human.

  96. @Diplocat

    I sold a bunch of physical, including pretty ASE's with a $6 premium on Nucleo and nobody flamed me for it. I can buy them back a lot cheaper now.

  97. Maybe too many people are looking at silver now, cause you can profit so quickly and it has so much potential cause of the manipulation.

    For those who sell their silver or sell part of their silver.

    Gold looks remains stable, but besides that, it's where the bankers hide their stash too, so they will not mess with the price that much.

    Great blog turd.


  98. @upfreedom,
    I think freeboundry is correct. get a spreadsheet and pick a number and put that same number in 2 columns. Add 10% compounded daily to one side and 20% compounded daily to the next. then see how you come out after 10 days worth of that example. The side you added 20% daily will be more than 2 times ahead due to the way it compounds.


  99. thanks Turd,

    I made good money on it, sold it and then rebought around 10.20ish.. im just going to hold this puppy till next year .. long term investment :)

    also, EA
    marting armstrong speaks in riddles sometimes... so i really dont understand him at all, he has also been wrong. In january he said in one of his letters that a close below a certain number would result in a decline-instead we made new highs... also, it could be that the panic crash in silver was the low... i wouldnt be surprised if his model was off by a month..

  100. I like when it goes up.
    I like when it goes down then we can buy more.
    A perfect world collecting ounces.

  101. @Diplocat:
    I think you made a good amount of sense.

    I have to admit, I was one of those people that held on to my silver instead of selling when it went up to $49, now it's back down and I'm sitting here waiting for the next bubble.

    I have worked out a new strategy, and it's similar to yours: buy in the dips and sell at the huge spikes.

    And yeah, I work with physical, so it take a bit more time to buy/sell though.

  102. It must be something like that, FreeBoundary... Just doesn't make sense to me. If daily compounding makes AGQ perform better than 2x on the upswing, wouldn't it do the opposite on the downswing?

    Yet, last week silver went from 48.42 to 34.67, a 28.3% loss. AGQ went from 365.26 to a low of 179.34, a 50.9% loss. 50.9 is less than 2x 28.3.

    So, AGQ gains more than 2x on the upswing and loses less than 2x on the downswing. What's not to like? Don't seem right, but numbers don't lie...

  103. We are moving closer to the day of reckoning.....but for now the charade will continue awhile longer. Obviously the facts show an obvious double dip recession forming now.....It should become very obvious by the third stamps are now a way of life for 25% of Americans....this is how devastated our country is. unemployment in under 25 yo males is 50%....and on and on......this isn't getting your physical and closeout the noise......enjoy your families. This is going to hit us (if we are lucky) 12-18 mo from now....economic supercycle gl

  104. So I guess miners tomorrow will tell us what we need to know. If the miners go even lower, key support levels will be broken opening up the door for return for summer 2010 levels (unbelievable to think), this according to Trader Dan and my interpretation of it.

    With my recent thinking, if this is to happen, I could see a massive selloff in gold/silver again before June while all of this QE/Economy is dying/"Deflation/Inflation"... plays out. The miners action tomorrow will either make me feel like we are at a bottom or that there may be bloodshed coming in the very near future...
    Can't get over this:
    The large cap mining stocks continue to get obliterated as evidenced by the XAU which is now perched precariously above a critical support level on the weekly chart. The entirety of the gains of 2011 have now been erased by this continued ratio spread trade which will not let up.

    To give you an idea of how obscene this trade has become, when the XAU was trading at today's levels back in January of this year, gold was trading in the low $1300's!


    I really wonder if we will get a wild retest like Martin Armstrong suggests... ALthough I completely disagree with his "silver closing in the 20s through 2012."

    Martin Armstrong seems to be under the impression that the Dollar will live till 2016-2020, and that is a flawed assumption in my opinion...

  105. On the daily gold chart, I think I see a pennant forming. Yes? If so, what does this portend?

  106. I picked up some Jun/Sep 40 call calendar spreads for a net debit of $1.48 ea.

    Its interesting how strong the AUD is relative to commodities (eg the link below).

  107. I just saw the piece on zerohedge regarding Senators urging margin hikes.

    So, 17 United States Senators have declared war on anyone who put 2 and 2 together and saw that unrest in the ME = higher crude prices. Anyone who's taken econ 101 and uses that knowledge to form the basis for an investing strategy has been a bad boy and needs to be hit in the wallet.

    It was bad enough when it was some nameless bureaucrat, now our elected representatives are openly shitting on us?

    I've gotta stop here cause I'm gonna end up saying something that'll earn me a visit by homeland security. Y'all can guess what I'm thinking...

  108. Diplocat said,
    "No significant nation will attempt to construct a hard currency backed by a consumable resource, no matter what the economic circumstances are."

    Then I guess the US has not been a significant nation with all those 90% silver it has issued. I guess our Founding Fathers were insignificant for requiring a currency of gold and silver.

    "When the IMF comes knocking, the first question will be, 'how much gold do you have'. 'How much silver do you have' will never be asked."

    THAT part I hope you're right about that. I have much more silver than gold.

  109. @Freeboundry: nice leveraged etf article link.
    @ Diamond: hold.

    how difficult might it be put together a spreadsheet that when the price of silver is entered generates the AGQ price? perhaps someone has already done this?


  110. And what about the $1764 angel target recently alluded to by Jim Sinclair? Do we really have any hope of getting there with all the bloodshed in the markets?

  111. @uptofreedom,
    This talk on AGQ gets more complicated than I thought initially  Same situation applies to SLV/AGQ price from 4/28 to today. However, if you compare SLV and AGQ price from 4/11 to today then, SLV down 12% from 39.21 to 34.3 but AGQ down 28% from 254.3 to 182.43
    I guess it’s complicated to explain this phenomenon as the price fall was made such a short term and we would have less an issue with compounding effect. Another possibility is that AGQ might track London bullion price and there might be an effect of currency exchange rate and then different closing time of futures vs. stock etc.
    But here is my guess on a second thought with AGQ. Let’s compare two different way of leveraging. Suppose you have 10K cash. Then you borrow another 10K as margin and invest all 20K in silver. If silver price doubles then you gain 20K. On the other hand, I guess what AGQ is doing is following. Suppose now you bought 10k amount of AGQ. Consider when it becomes 20k (as silver rose 50% roughly). AGQ will then borrow 20K to keep the leverage as twice (while your first portfolio borrows only 10K all the time). AGQ are basically pyramiding your position. Sounds good when silver rises, but worse when silver falls. All this is my pure guess, so do your own analysis to figure it out.
    Okay, I am no expert in this evil and feel getting too much drag into. I give up and some expert show up and clear things out LOL

  112. @The Victory Report - there isn't a 1:1 correlation. If silver's at (picking numbers out of my you know where...) 42 and AGQ's at 245 one week, then silver goes up some down some and is back at 42, AGQ won't be back at 245.

    Based on my observation that AGQ gains more than 2x on the upswing and loses less than 2x on the downswing, AGQ would be 250-255ish, but there's no way to equate it for sure.

  113. NBC News about to report on the most famous hat in the world. I wonder if it is big, yellow, and foamy?

  114. Waiting for the yellow hat to appear..

  115. Jesse's Café

    "The years from 1929 to 1933 were, for America, a succession of breaking idols and abandoned faiths, some of them the notions of willful children, some deeply ingrained in the character of the nation ... By agreement with the Government, Banks placed an artificial value upon certain securities they held. Those who did not know of the agreement assumed that the values were actual.” Gilbert Vivian Seldes, The Years of the Locust: America 1929-1932, Little, Brown, and Co (1933)

  116. @Free - To further complicate things, SLV's expense ration is .5%, AGQ's is .95%... Anyway, I'll have to check out some less volatile periods and compare 'em, could be the rapid rise/fall are effecting things...

    Also, AGQ's description on seekingalpha does say "twice (200%) the daily performance of silver bullion as measured by the U.S. Dollar fixing price for delivery in London." So could be something regarding exchange rates.

    Mebbe I'm overthinking this. I just wanted to "see the slippage"...

  117. @uptofreedom: yup. makes sense. cheers.
    interesting place this is, my first time in turdville. very nice.

    i've been in and out of AQG for awhile now, look like i found my support group. as of late, been a buyer at sub $200.

  118. econ analyst.......

    that is not what m armstrong said...

    u r misinterpreting...

  119. I was speculating last week that a big player picked up a lot of SLV in the sell off last week.

    Ted Butler agrees:
    "This time, the silver manipulators had a different goal and objective. They did use every dirty trick imaginable to rig the price sharply lower on the COMEX, but the liquidation they were after was not primarily long COMEX contracts. The goal this time of the silver crooks was to get hold of silver in the big silver ETF, SLV. And they achieved their goal. In little more than a week, the COMEX silver takedown forced 35 million ounces of silver to be sold and redeemed out of the SLV. I would bet my last dollar that the bulk of that 35 million ounces is now owned by the very criminals that rigged the price lower, which was the plan from the get go."

  120. Hey, I have a strategy question re: CEF. I bought too soon after the last offering and had no inkling of the intraday discount/premium, so I wound up in with a 4.5% premium. Tonight, the discount is -5%.

    I was thinking of ADDING, since I only bought a 1/2 position, and I'm ASSUMING I'd be cancelling out that high premium..... but then seeing some people doing some maneuvering (not nec. on CEF), I was wondering would it makes sense to sell what I have and buy back at the lower discount?

    Now, this may be academic now, since I wouldn't want to get involved in a wash sale...I'd have to do the math on that to see if it made any sense....this is a broader question on any other nuances to playing CEF.

  121. @fighting gael that is exactly what he said..I just copied and pasted it directly from him

  122. Bro D,

    Doesn't it seem like the industrial utility of silver trumps its monetary aspects in the 21st century? It seems to me that technology disrupts the historical pattern with silver, since maintaining the standard of living requires destroying ever increasing quantities of it. How would this work as money?

    Clearly, gold has the same risk from disruptive technology, and obviously this argument is inoperative if you think we're headed back to pre-20th century technology.

  123. anyone buying puts on a multileveraged instrument like AGQ in hopes of realizing gain from the built-in decay will ultimately find out it is not the way to make money. u may make money because silver drops, but the premium related to the time related volatility component is already built in by the market makers. on this there is no arbritage for the retail investor.

  124. OK, so the deflationary events are being brought to bear on the markets. Bounce the Dollar while taking down the big commodities. Everyone in commodities knows the real reason for the runup in price being the devaluing dollar. Regardless, the moves on the commodity investors is "a little too much heat in the kitchen!". Caution rules the day as many are forced off a trade that will inevitably reasert itself in the future. Many waiting for a better re-entry point may have some time ahead of them. I believe that this trade will be made TOO hot for the longs to handle.(exception being physical holders) I think the banksters/politicians will work together to once again create that fearsome deflation mindset and open the door for QE 3. We all know it has to happen.
    The one thing that is being buried now is the ongoing crisis in Japan. The last news I heard was no resolution to meltdowns. This is a Major global impacting crisis! The nuclear fallout is the visible one. The coming financial impact is worse.
    Anyone paying attention to the Yen strength since QE began? The Yen carry trade was already under great pressure from QE when the Tsunami hit, as the Yen index was at 123. (shot straight up immediately after tsunami, and was forced back down ) The Yen carry trade is MASSIVE. It's unwinding cannot be done easily. Japan's debt is massive, and printing Yen will not work to fund rebuilding. You have to think, where is all the Japanese money invested?
    AND, where do you think it is headed?
    The FED has added another plate to Bernanke's juggling act. The question now is when will he drop one?

  125. TF, congrats on hitting the 6 month mark, this site, its creator and its community is great.

    time to be an armchair quarterback.

    "Commodity prices have risen significantly since last summer, and concerns about global supplies of crude oil have contributed to a further increase in oil prices since the Committee met in March. Inflation has picked up in recent months, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable and measures of underlying inflation are still subdued."

    "...measures of underlying inflation continue to be somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Increases in the prices of energy and other commodities have pushed up inflation in recent months. The Committee expects these effects to be transitory, but it will pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations."

    so there's inflation in commodities & oil b/c of supply issues (read: POSX falling), but underlying inflation is under control. Energy/commodity inflation increases are "transitory" (ie. margin hikes) but will keep an eye on rising energy/commodity inflation if the increases aren't as "transitory" as desired.

    Anyways, that's my take on the most recent FOMC Statement. It's (inflation) under control, but it's not under control, we'll get it under control, but then it'll probably get out of control but will keep an eye on things.

    "transitory". May have been staring at us right in the face.

    kliguy, POSX did rise into 2011 more or less after QE2 announcement, almost hit 82. About the time the euro tanked.

  126. I see the AGQ debate. There is built in decay as described in the article. All the calculated differences are related to compounding in Free's examples.

    I know people want to buy calls and puts on AGQ, I would suggest this is a bad idea. The bid/ask spread is massive. There are a lot of other issues with it as well (ie the theta is massive). All of this means you better be highly correct about your trade, both directionally and time.

    AGQ is best as a day trade vehicle.

    It is also not a horrible way to buy and hold silver for long run if you STRONGLY BELIEVE that ultimately the volatility will be compensated by the overall gain in price.

    In a strange way, leveraged ETFs resemble options because of this inherent decay, ie, there is a volatility component built into them. It can be calculated if you are diligent and go back to the beginning of the ETF creation but it is not worth the time, imo.

    At the end of the day when you are trading levered products, you are swinging for home-runs; they are not meant for the novice.

    If I were new and wanted to make money trading silver and gold I would probably use something like CEF, or PHYS, or PSLV (whichever one is "cheapest" by NAV and fees). All the other methods: options, levered ETFs, and futures are great ways to be right about the bull market in PMs but still lose money.

  127. Looks like we are getting some short covering before silver rolls over hopefully for the final time tomorrow AM in the $34.50-$33 range before heading back up to the $40's next week.

  128. ea,

    pardon me,
    i was refering to your gold comments,
    not silver ones from armstrong...

  129. For what it's worth,
    Since last August I've had the midas touch, the uncanny ability to get stopped out in my Ag trades exactly at the bottoms. Today, I got stopped out at 183.42 in AGQ.

  130. Cairo to move Meshaal's Hamas base to Gaza. Assad threatens Israel with war

    May 11, 2011, 12:30 PM

    Egypt's military rulers promised Hamas' political leader Khaled Meshaal to let him transfer his base, command center and residence from troubled Damascus to a new haven in the Gaza Strip as an inducement for signing the Palestinian unity agreement with Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah on May 4. This is disclosed for the first time by debkafile's intelligence sources. In Damascus, Bashar Assad's close confidante Rami Makhlouf threatened that Syria would go to war against Israel in reprisal for US and Europe backing for the uprising....(con't)

  131. @ JNG

    Interesting Graph. The decline from 35.60 to ~33 was a result from the announcement of (two silver margin increases, one effective Thursday, and one for Monday of this week). This was also accompanied by a huge oil sell-off.

    We now have margin increases in crude and gasoline futures, effective tomorrow, but nothing for silver (yet).

    Interesting graph though. Will see if Asian buying occurs tonight.

  132. I found this was a good day to buy CEF. I had sold half my long SBT when silver was around 42 in the crash. This drives my gold holdings a little highter and historically it is unusual for CEF to be trading at a discount to NAV.

    For those folks who are used to seeing my posts geared to AGQ a reminder I have a much larger stake in the much longer picture.

  133. Insight

    If you bought half a position earlier, and now are considering getting the other half, that sounds like a perfectly reasonable thing to do.

    But this part confuses me: "but then seeing some people doing some maneuvering (not nec. on CEF), I was wondering would it makes sense to sell what I have and buy back at the lower discount?"

    If you think that selling your earlier shares would somehow make that premium that you paid go away, and you could just re-buy them 5 minutes later at the discount, you are thinking of the whole premium/discount thing all wrong. The premium you paid on the first half already went away all on it's own. Churning your own account won't do anything but cost you money.

  134. @Scottj88

    If the pattern holds (it's really a crap shoot in this crazy market) silver should just about touch $36 in about 4-6 hours then roll over to the $34.50 Turd bottom around 7AM-10 AM EST tomorrow, I think Turd see's then same thing I will be interesting to see how this plays out.


  135. Sp makes most sense here. Don’t try to be cute and outsmart when you trade derivatives. Market makers in derivatives are cruelest sharks. They even bite each other when they can’t find small fishes. I’ve seen two of major wall street derivative desks spotted a weak guys at another firm and corner that desk, caused huge loss that year. A new boss came to a desk and fired old guy and put all loss to the fired guys and they took huge profit and bonus. Sharks like these will give an arbitrage to retail investors? No way. Only advantage small investors can have is patience and less greedy. If you are greedy as wall streeters, then you are dead. Just forget small technicalities and trade/invest in simple stuff you know best.

  136. Time for another margin hike.

    Let's make it 200% - twice full amount - plus you need a note from your mother for each contract.

  137. I'm not trolling here but just thinking out loud. People seem almost married to their silver when it really is only a means to an end. Buying more gold or buying hard assets. It's fun. It's tradeable. I'm glad I got out of half my positions at 46. I can trade it with more leverage in a more liquid format and hopefully get out completely and buy a house with it. Hopefully have a couple of gold coins just in case. This blog site has been invaluable to help me accomplish this very thing. For that TF, I thank you!

  138. Very Good interview with Jim Sinclair. One of the better ones describing a few things, including mining shares. You will notice he mentions he likes his company TRE because it is sitting on a lot of gold. I think this same principle but with silver will also occur, and that is why I like companies such as Silvermex so much.

  139. @sp and Free - are you saying that in a volatile market there actually *is* reverse decay of sorts going on, or in just a rapidly rising one? Or not at all and I need to read that article Free linked again? ;)

  140. @Scott88
    "gold is finding its way back into the monetary system. This market isn’t the average guy, this market isn’t the average multi-millionaire, this market is giants and those giants are not bearish.”

  141. Mind boggling ...

    It plunges all the way from 39.4x to 35.02 and now in a short time it rallies all the way up to 35.8x

    I too am hoping that 50 comes sooner rather than later such that one of my lots of AGQ (**cough cough*** cost basis 368) can have a chance at returning something.

  142. I just wanted to make sure I'm on record for calling an official bottom in the dollar last week at around when I come back in 2 to 3 months after the FED has manipulated the dollar above 80 and say "I told ya so".....well. I'll make sure I hunt down that post.

  143. Going by the last couple of days trading it looks like

    'physical and paper' metal

    is reflected by the 'daytime paper price'
    and the 'nightime physical price'

    hence the $39-$35 action.
    This could get hilarious real quickly

  144. That is a stunning analysis, CF. You should start a paid service. But I'm sure you must be very wealthy by now, and don't really need the money.

  145. James Turk interviews John Embry. Good stuff.

  146. The whole story is on the 30-year chart of the USD. We are smack dab at the end of it's 10 year cycle.

  147. Congratulations on the success of the blog Turd. Your generosity shines through and you've managed to create a real sense of community - no easy task!

    It goes to show the more we pretend to advance as a society through technological developments, our collective ability really boils down to getting the basics right first.

    Bill DU

  148. Vedast, why don't you sell puts on SLV or SIVR instead?

  149. Guys this is freaking me out:

    I swear the 6 month silver chart looks even more like this mania graph now.

    This better not go to $20.

  150. Just a reminder, friends: Shadowstats has the money supply (M3) expanding at around 17% per year... this is not going away anytime soon.

    If there is a burble in treasury yields because big dogs like James Rodgers and Pimco start taking out shorts, then borrowing costs to service all that USGov debt will go through the roof and they will 'print' even more.

    We have a largely 'foodstamp' recovery where the true measure of the sickness of the ecomony is concealed behind plastic cards and unemployment checks- if not for these things we would have bread lines and job ques our depression-era grandparents would find eerily familiar.

    The shadow Fed balance sheet (that nobody ever sees) is likely some frankenstinian monstrosity that makes TF's zombie above look like the picture of health.

    So be careful, and be circumspect, and do your due diligence, but please remember- you are some of the few who actually "get" it and the daily chart is showing nothing but a fire sale on wealth preservation devices. Get 'em while they're hot, folks.

  151. Its seems that TPTB wants to reduce the commodities so that they can institute QE3, without the fear of inflation. I know there are some plays in here, puts and shorts. Any suggestions? I'm thinking S&P futures.

  152. Leonard

    You need to go back and follow the link which EA posted earlier today (on an earlier thread I think) to Michael Maloney's video in which Maloney explains that this (albeit engineered) correction is typical of silver and not even as big as previous ones in THIS silver bull.

    It ain't even close to being over yet.

  153. Xaritas,
    An industrial use for silver does not negate an economic use for silver. Gold and silver have been used as jewelry as well as currency for thousands of years, and I suspect for many years hence.

  154. One thing I haven't thought about is the possibility of a price war over silver between eastern and western markets. As London and US markets short and force the price down, the Eastern markets can gobble it up and drive the price back up.
    Who would win? I would say the one who gets all the physical.

  155. Leonard,
    Have we not already had despair? Have we not already seen weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth, even among the diehards here?
    I would like to know what comes after the "blow off" phase...the "stealth" phase again?

  156. Big shout to Eric #1- Got my first 1oz $50 eagle. Thanks for the inspiration man!

  157. At 34-30 I have dry powder.
    At 30-28 I have an extra vehicle.
    At 28-25 The enclosed trailer goes.
    At 25 I'll be cutting lawns and cleaning pools
    At 20 The truck goes.
    Don't cry for me, I have a scooter!

    How's that for dedication?

    Fundamentals have not changed.
    This is the part of the game where they want you to ignore fundamentals, and go away.
    A lot of big money already has. Harder climb up, admittedly.
    We should be thanking these criminals.
    We all have different goals, timelines, and circumstances, but the trend is established. Some late comers do have tough decisions to make. I feel for you, sincerely.
    Listen to the Embry link above.
    Reputations are,in part, at stake. There are people on our side doing homework also.
    Only so many delivery months left before it could get very interesting.
    Hang on, take advantage of the opportunity, stack ozs, not dollars, and remember to tell someone where you buried it. Peace everybody.

  158. Got around to opening my fresh tube of 2011 AES's. They were sealed but too lovely to keep bottled up. Like unveiling a work of art.

  159. Vincent,
    I like your style. I think I need to start a book sale on ebay.

  160. This is just a rehearsal for a real mania and blow off someday IMO. Kind of a mini-,ania among the early adopters, before the general public has even noticed.

    At this stage the public heard on the new that silver hit nearly $50 a last week and they go digging around for broken jewelry and old spoons to take to the pawn shop.

    Keep this one burned in your brains though, so when the REAL mania happens some day you will know enough to make an exit near the top, wisely leaving the last 5% or so on the table for the latecomers to fight over.

    This is just a dress rehearsal in miniature.

  161. Vincent,
    I couldn't agree with you more ....
    Great Interview with Embry / Turk.
    I listen to a handful of people .. the two mentioned above along with Turd and Schiff.
    A couple posters on this blog ... none more needed.


  162. Leonard, as others have pointed out - if this was a bubble in silver, it was one shitty bubble. We didn't even reach the nominal all-time high, let alone an all-time inflation adjusted high. Seriously, how does this so-called silver bubble compare with the housing and dot-com bubbles of the last decade?

  163. Crash? In silver? Say it ain't so!

    It's just the same ol' game. The lousy, lying thieving, desperate game... but just a game. Don't get me wrong, it's a serious matter when they take our money, our savings. But they will not beat me. They will not even tread on me much longer.

    The tree has been shaken. I was considering selling my silver mining shares and half of my physical, but that was but a fleeting moment. Do I wish that I had a crystal ball and sold all mining shares at 49? You bet.

    But the more I saw/read the hand-wringing, fear and loathing and outright panic - ON THIS BOARD - the more I was convinced to NOT sell a damn thing. Shares down but physical still weighs the same thing as before the criminal shakedown.

    So now I'm convinced that the shares will not only come back, but pay off very well. It'll take more time than I thought, but thats fine.

    Point is, the lying liars of the crony capitalists and government lackies and the Cartel have played their last big scam and it may have worked for them... but they didn't get mine and they won't.

    Long silver, long gold, long the original America founded by the founding fathers, long God, long family and friends and short the evil ones that want so desperately to change this country into a tyrannical empire of elites and serfs.

    Congrats Turd for 6 months of great stuff. Thanks denizens for the same. At the end of the next six months we will be celebrating this forum, the help it has been and our wise decision to be in the pm's… and find this forum to get through it all.

    Then we’ll raise a glass to our blessings and to the salt of the earth.

  164. SLV showing some outflows again. So that's how they were able to hit spot prices so hard yesterday. Yesterday spot prices had been lower than futures prices. Right now though, luckily, backwardation is in full effect again.

    Loved that entry Turd, you're saying it as it is: this is manipulation at its finest, and it's very hard, if at all possible, to trade manipulation.

  165. Evening Turds, watch this video while it is still LIVE!

  166. If you want silver to crash like that bubble chart you'd have to raise interest to 5% or higher to make it happen. That's the real deal. Hiking margins ain't gonna cut it, hoho.

  167. Aloha,
    Turd, I have not heard you reference the role of the Euro in all this. We should be prepared for a monster rise in the US$ should the Eurozone unravel and this appears much more likely now than at any time in recent memory. The POSX bounce off of recent lows may well be foreshadowing this.
    I only hope that there will be a flight into not just US$ but gold, too.
    Curious about your take on this, Thanks.

  168. Some people investing in miners may want to check this out...

  169. Josh

    Congrats!! I bet she's a beauty!

  170. when y'all buy gold, what do y'all buy?

  171. I have been thinking about this Hong Kong Gold Futures platform starting 1 week from today on May 18th.

    Assuming the COMEX is accurate listing 33Million ounces, would not HK need something equivalent as they would need to secure a shitload of PM to launch this. Just a thought, but I wonder if they have already secured all of there metal by now

  172. Great point, Larry. The more I felt the vibe of panic and desperation here, the more I sat tight and let the game run it's course.

    I personally don't try to time the market because that's like trying to hit a irrationally moving bullseye. If Jim Rogers cant do it, not a chance in hell I can. So, I just stick to the same ole plan: slow, steady intake of physical when I have the fiat and when we get a 10% or more discount.

    POS$ to 78 and over most likely. Risk-off when all else is shaky. It's due.Then, before you know it, Risk back on and it's down testing 72....71....Why so serious? Cash is trash, even THEY know it. If THEY can build the casino, the know how to count the chips and rig the machines, right? They have no souls, but they're not stupid.

    Now's the time to be rational and see the big picture, not get caught up and shook up. If you give in, cash out...the house wins.

  173. waffen - I've found 5 and 10 gram gold bars on eBay to be the best way to slowly accumulate at a low premium. Bought some on the crash two weeks ago. Think I paid about 8% under spot net with cashback and other incentives. Generics regularly sell for at spot or below. Pamp or Credit Suisse with assay certs go for a bit more, but not much.

  174. Killver posted this on the Kitco Forum. Excellent analysis- hopefully not a repeat.

  175. plunjer,

    Turd highlighted that as a must-read article a few days ago.

  176. Bro D.,

    Unrecoverable consumption is a bit different from fashioning status symbol bling. You can always re-coin that tiara. Anyway, I don't deny that physical silver remains a terrific store of value and therefore has great economic utility. I just don't think it will be the basis for a new currency.

  177. Turd, I have been reading your blog for a while now and have developed so much respect and gratitude for your prodigious insights and honesty. Today you have exceeded any previous expectations I may have had with this:
    "How the hell should I know? Seriously."
    I know this may sound contradictory, but it requires a very altruistic and honest person to admit that you really don't know. Seriously, no one knows, but I'm sure we will all find out where this train goes in short order, and up or down we are guaranteed a fantastic show and good company here in Turdtown.

  178. well said silverbleve.

    wow, quick downturn to $34.43.

  179. Thanks TF! The previous dip I went in at 44, and decided to let go at 40. Lost a bit but it's a good lesson learnt. This dip, I'm not going to enter until I'm relatively confident of it being over.

    At the rate it is moving (not NY session yet), I won't be surprised if it hits 32 or even 31.

    I believe Silverman mentioned it in another post about having difficulty (psychologically) shorting silver, I'm in the same position :(. Have to find a way to get rid of this mental barrier.

  180. this downtrend has me thinking it'll drop down into the $31-$32 area, if not lower, by next week. The trend, imo, remains downward.

  181. What is causing this drop? Margins on Crude? We should probably expect this drop at the New York open as well :\

  182. not sure Scott. US$ up, oil down.

    Spot trying to hold $34, not convinced however.

  183. other risk (AUD/JPY especially) also fell off a cliff at the same time. EUR/USD also fell quickly, but flat for the day. Oil was up 1.2%, now just 0.2%.

  184. Greetings all, found this blog via ZeroHedge and decided to track it this week to see how it matches up to the results. Not an exact match, but Turd's call for a bounce to 39+ and then back down has been pretty close so far; it was enough of a nudge to keep me out of going a tad longer CEF early this morning :P

    Confirm the big overnight drop, 34.08 and 1497.60 at my last read from Kitco.

  185. All metals are down. My guess is that there are margin calls and liquidation underway in asia. Tokyo time is now 3:22 pm

    TOCOM trading session ends 3:30 pm Tokyo time.

  186. I think they are trying to push it below 33.89 spot, the intraday day low from May Day Massacre.

  187. the big fundamental is tim duncan, and the soldiers dont make the rules; i have metals like the rest, I bet sporting events all my life too ... there are no locks, make sure you have your basics covered for more than ten mins, there is a lotta herd thought here at times, just saying

  188. still searching for any rational explanation.

    "margin calls" a possibility but does not explain carnage in last hour across all commodities (silver, crude, gold at least). one hour ago things were fairly steady.

  189. WOW! Big push down and up in gold! Quite a fight between $1490 and $1495.

  190. A slight pause and it looks like we are now on the way down again. It may really plunge if it breaks 33.89.

  191. Wayne: if a large asian trader was in trouble then lots of commodities would get hit near the end of the trading day as trader liquidates various positions to raise cash.

    EE might take advantage and pile on.

  192. Turd gets his chance to buy gold at 1,490

  193. I'm watching 1 min. and 5 min. charts on oil, gold, silver,

    This is looking more and more like an EE takedown.