I expected the mid-month weakness to begin last Friday. It began, instead, a week earlier.
I expected a dip of 10% or so. Instead, the dip was over 30%.
I saw a turnaround bottom on Cinqo de Bottomo and looked for a rally to 1520 and 39.50.
I expected a gradually steepening, 4-day selloff back down toward 35 in silver and 1495 in gold. Instead, my gradually steepening selloff took only 4 hours and here we are. What's next?
How the hell should I know? Seriously.
The only thing that I can see is a POSX that has maxxed out its Calvin bounce and commodities that are being intentionally driven off a cliff to give the Fed room to posture. It's all bs. However, IF you are attempting to trade this nonsense, you'd better be buying yourself some time and, once you get long, you'd better have the courage of your convictions to hang in there. You'd also better have some significant capital reserves.
For now, here are updates of the exact same four charts I gave you a scant six hours ago. First up, our fearless leader. In percentage terms, gold continues to hang tough. If it were moving like silver and crude, it would be down $75-150. I told you this morning that I want to buy some June calls at $1500 but there is no sense in getting in a hurry. I'm going to sit idly by again tomorrow and wait for Friday. If Lady Luck smiles upon me, I'll get a chance to buy then near 1490.
1) President and dipshit AG declare economic "war" on evil speculators.
2) Start rumors to scare longs and create volatility.
3) Raise margins ostensibly to "control volatility" YOU created.
4) Start fresh batch of rumors.
5) Longs rush out, fearing more margin hikes.
6) Halt trading to really freak out longs.
7) Raise margins again to "control volatility" YOU continue to create.
Did the crude market see 4-5% daily moves before or after O'bottom got involved? Answer this question and you'll have your answer as to why commodities are moving the way they are.
The Living Dead.
OK, seriously. It's gone about as far as I can see it going on this bounce.
I'll be out for the rest of the day and evening but I'll try to stop by the comments section every now and then and add thoughts, if necessary. TF