Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Smells Like Capitulation

At least for now.

I like it when I'm right about the UPside. Unfortunately, I seem to be able to predict the downside, too.

"In silver, I think its pretty clear now that a test of the Sunday evening panic lows of 42.20 is coming. Maybe as soon as later today. I expect a bounce there and that may be it but I doubt it. Momentum now is to the downside in silver so it looks like even further weakness is coming. Combine that with the short-term dollar strength that I expect later this week and I think we're going to get a look at 40. If you miss it, don't dismay. Next week, we'll probably get a re-test of whatever the bottom ends up being before basing and heading higher into the end of the month and early June."


I hope that you are surviving this freefall and have not found yourself in a position where you have been forced to liquidate. Santa has cautioned for years against using any kind of margin and I must concur. The long-term trend for the PMs remains intact. The fundamentals have not changed. The only way you will consistently lose money in the PMs or any market is if you let your emotions (and margins) get the better of you and force you to buy high and/or sell low. The last month, particularly in silver, has been nothing but a gravy train ride higher and, in markets like that, its very easy to get complacent. Over the long run, the key to making money in the PMs is to sell when everyone else in buying and buy when everyone else is selling.


To that end, though we are about 10% lower (and two weeks earlier) than I thought we would get in silver, pattern still suggests that lows will be found soon and silver will reverse. I am currently waiting with orders for July $45 silver calls that should get filled if/when we get to $40 or slightly below. I'm also trying to buy some August $1550 gold calls that should fill if/when gold reaches $1525.

Remember this one very important point that we discussed last week. Highs are not made and "bubbles" are not "popped" when everyone is telling you to sell and the risk seems to outweigh the reward. Peaks come when everyone is telling you to buy and no one sees any risk at all. Think Nasdaq in early 2000 or real estate in 2007.

Hang in there this afternoon and tonight. These endless margin hikes are certainly aggravating and, based on today's action, it looks like another one is on the way.

I'll have more later when I have a few minutes to calmly contemplate all of this week's events. TF


8:45 pm EDT UPDATE:
Two quick things.
First, I fully expect silver to test the lows from earlier today, perhaps as soon as later this evening. That level may hold but I still expect a final dip toward $40 or slightly below. When I buy, I will also be buying time. The July calls won't expire until late June. August gold calls won't expire until late July. Lots of time built in to make up for timing inaccuracy in my purchase.
Second, you absolutely must read this. If you don't fully grasp it the first time, go back and read it again.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-decline-registered-silver-brings-total-comex-physical-multi-year-lows
33,000,000 ounces means the Comex only has enough silver to settle just 6,600 contracts. That, my friends, is the financial equivalent of blood in the water.
Please understand, all of the recent Cartel-inspired bloodletting is directly related to this issue. They needed to scare sufficient quantities of specs out as well as remind potential "sharks" that they still make the rules and won't go down easily. They also desperately need to buy time, too. It's worked.
But the sharks are still there, watching and waiting. If you observed the action Sunday night, you saw that the steep drop was not so much an EE beatdown as it was a total absence of bids (buyers). This trend has continued yesterday and today. Our BoS seem to be regrouping and planning their next move, all the while the price continues to come in and offer even more attractive entry points for them.
After successfully buying the time needed to escape May, The Cartel will have a few weeks now to round up more silver for July. They're going to need it.
TF

405 comments:

  1. according to this guy
    http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/goombarh-says-markets-recover-starting.html

    "Presently, China's markets are closed for the May 1st holidays and will open next week."

    is this TRUE?????????????????

    how did we miss this..

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  2. boy its hard to predict something when its already in process.

    i heard no downside prediction on friday

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  3. @Atlee...

    Got it. I'm just sitting on my hands right now. I made about 15% back today on ZSL, but just sold that.

    Only thing that would "hurt" right now is a big gap up overnight, but I'm trying to take a step back and follow Turd's droppings a bit more...

    For instance... this morning, he said we'd test 42.20 and that 40 would offer good resistance.

    Guess what, we tested 42.20, didn't quite make it to 40, but close enough for me to say "good call" and it's why I took a chance on ZSL just for the day.

    Now,PLEASE don't tell me that your indicators show we might gap up! ;)

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  4. 40.61 seems to have been the bottom...at least I hope so. On days like this I'm glad I only hold physical and not paper. I will make another huge purchase in physical next week to take advantage of this dip and then I will sit tight for the next 5 years and will sell only my trading position on the next leg up.

    Hang in there everyone....good luck. What a fucking wild ride.

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  5. We're going to see a bounce in silver and silver stocks pretty soon. But the thing is, every bounce is going to be sold. And then we will see 37 or 36. That's why I liquidated 85% of the portfolio. I put a huge buy in SWC that has turned out swell. There are ways to make money outside of silver and gold. I lost sight of this fact the last six months.

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  6. Quite a few similar sized miners will be reporting on Monday the 9th (SLW, CDE, HL). I wonder who sets their dates, their MM? Or each company? Anybody with an idea on this one?

    Phantom

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  7. she is starting to turn now since just beforte 3 pm

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  8. srsly?

    Turd give INDICATORS that should be watched for and he certainly gave some last week.

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  9. Sorry my previous posts have not been posting.
    I just wanted to say silver has been money for many years. We know that paper's highest and best use is for the bunghole. Now that real money is on sale we can maximize the use of the remaining sliced paper in our possession. Just save some tp for paying your taxes.

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  10. @ atlee,
    We hit a support level from the daily chart right at the same time, drawn from the low in late January though the low in mid-March, hit it just as we dipped below $41 and bounced back up. Noticed the MACD crossover in the smaller charts at the same time. I'm hoping that line proves to be solid support.

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  11. i am going to repost this. i lost 100 k i cannot afford to lose. i had an unreasonable confidancy in turd. i knew better to have that, i am not a newbie. i got carried away. i think people need to be warned that really are newbie's to not trust anyone's technical take. i think turd is great , really, but the assured confidance that he presents is misleading to people who don't know better. and i should have. please don't delete this, turd, even you know it needs to be said.

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  12. Atlee... I agree... we seem to have popped up to and are hovering around 41.40.

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  13. I nibbled on DGP in the high 1530's and again in the low 1530's. I'll buy more if we ever see Turd's 1525, but I'll believe that when I see it.

    This is the only material trade I've made since last Tuesday. Haven't sold CEF, haven't sold a miner. But then, I was staying well within my comfort zone the whole time. Not putting the farm at risk at all. Not that it hasn't sucked. It has.

    On the personal, physical, paying the bills side of life, yes, I sold silver last week. Traded for gold, paid some credit cards. Are you kidding me? Hell yes. Earned me some goodwill with the Missus too, so that's always good. :D

    Not any more though. Let's put it this way: There's a hell of a lot less risk in gold and silver now than there was late last week. GLTA

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  14. http://chart.ly/acnt33d

    Interesting chart

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  15. Gold seems pretty strong, bottom 1525-30?
    No hikes for gold (I'm not complaining), but this metal only serves as inflation measure. Suppression is only for cosmetic purposes?

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  16. That drives me crazy...to deflect personal responsibility in the guise of "It was my fault" is just downright pathetic. Take that ish somewhere else. You cant say someone or something is great and followit with the big BUT....just saying.

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  17. @waffen

    Shanghai Futures Exchange Holidays
    http://www.shfe.com.cn/docview/docview_1045808.htm

    Labor Day: Apr.30 through May.2. On May.3 the trading re-opens.

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  18. Atlee, Eric#1,
    Does backwardation in silver influence any of your trades short/med/long term? Does the market have to go up for bacwardation to revert to contango?

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  19. for "lalla"

    All content at this website http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com is presented for educational and/or entertainment purposes only. Under no circumstances should it be mistaken for professional investment advice (because it is, most assuredly, not), nor is it at all intended to be taken as such.

    The commentary and other contents simply reflects the opinion of The Turd alone on the current and future status of the markets, various economies and world events. It is subject to error and change without notice. The presence of a link to a website does not indicate approval or endorsement of that web site or any services, products, or opinions that may be offered there.

    Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to buy or sell any securities nor investments. DO NOT EVER purchase any security or investment without doing your own and sufficient research. The Turd is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein but he probably will anyway. Turd may, at times and probably does, have positions in the securities or investments referred to here and may make purchases or sales of these securities and investments while this site is live. However, if asked, he'll gladly tell you what those investments are so don't worry about it. The analysis contained is based on both technical and fundamental research. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed. Seriously.

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  20. @waffen, May 1 is a big commie holiday! Don't you celebrate with the other workers? ;P I'm in Shanghai, I can confirm it was a holiday Mon and Tue here.

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  21. atlee I can see the turn on the 1 and 5 min charts. I know you use 5-hr for guidance but it doesn't show the turn as quickly of course. Are you moving between them to get the timing closer? eg 5hr shows break below bollinger, 1 and 5 min show stochastic to oversold.

    As I said, not buying right now so I've got more study time.

    Also noted you mentioned long so overnight not such a factor.

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  22. @ soccer
    No
    @ Lala land
    you sound like an obsessive masturbator

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  23. OK, probably a fool here, but just put about 25% back into AGQ to see what happens overnight.

    We seemed to come back nicely after going down to 41.

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  24. F said..."APMEX still does not have 2010,2011 monster boxes listed."

    You are correct, my bad of the 2011
    Scratch 2011 = 435 Shipping 5/13, should have been
    2011 SAE Tube May 13 = 424

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  25. Turd - I think it goes without saying. For pity sake, should people really take investment advice from someone calling himself Turd Ferguson? Obviously it's not gospel truth - but it's pretty close.

    Shill - you never responded to my ZSL puts. looking for your take bro.

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  26. Asia should be quivering & have wet pants waiting to get a shot silver at these prices.

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  27. 41.60 at close is no buy for me. RSI at 52. I'm sitting flat and tight overnight. No idea what Asia and London will do while I'm sleeping. Will look for a deal to buy on near COMEX open, if RSI is low.

    @atlee
    Was the last hour really turnaround buying or early short cover for 4pm? I see more of same tomorrow to test 40.

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  28. Lalla, your first mistake was investing money you couldn't afford to lose. Your second mistake was having unreasonable confidence in a strangers blog. Your third mistake was getting carried away. When has Turd ever said "follow my lead and you are guarunteed to win"?

    There is a reason nobody replied to you in the last thread. You lost money because you messed up, don't try to blame it on someone else who merely lays out what he is seeing in the market and shares it with others. If you are looking for a pity party or others to take your side, not gonna happen. Next time don't go against your instincts and if you do, don't try to place blame on someone else.

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  29. Catseyenu & Eric,
    I'm over on the last thread just talking to myself not realizing that TF posted a new thread lol. ...Anyway.. I didn't want to repost on a new thread but had a response to you both on the last thread.

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  30. SoccerDad

    No. I love reading James Turk's articles about how backwardation means so much, blah, blah, blah, but I take it for entertainment purposes only.

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  31. Ginger,

    The good news for me is that I was a whole lot less self-critical and abusive this time around.

    Phantom, I love your saying, it may become my mantra.

    I hope Lalla goes back to lalaland, we don't need that here.

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  32. thanks for the link torpedo fish..

    WATCH OUT HERE

    Dragon Boat Festival: Jun. 4 through Jun.6. On Jun.7 the trading re-opens.

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  33. lalla, sorry to hear about your losses. If you believe in the fundamentals the safest thing to do is stay only in physical metals, they are wealth preservers. Miners/options/futures/ETF's are all speculation, ask yourself the 'why', and you'll know which you want, a wealth preserver or the joy ride of speculation. I prefer a lot of wealth preservation and a little speculation.

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  34. Lalla,

    I lost my fucking shirt too, but you won't see me blaming Turd. It's your own damn fault. At one hundred grand, you might just have wrested the title of the Bull Goose Idiot from me. I'm not sure though, SoccerDad might have lost a half million! Any way, we'd like for you to join our Idiot's Club, but I'm afraid blaming the Turd for your idiocy goes against our bylaws.

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  35. True story:

    When I was a kid we used the term "Lalla" as another term for cock or dick.

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  36. Waffen..nice catch. Put it in the calendar!

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  37. @Happpy

    Good observations. short version. This action going from 1 min to 5 to 10 to 30 to 1 to 5 to daily. Look at the 1. notice how from about 3 pm stayed above the 16ma in the middle of the band. Look down a stoastic. 1 turns first but often not enough move unless you cast a heavy line (couple hundred shares) See the 5 after being imbedded start to poke up. see the confirmation then in the 10. Look at the five hour beginnig to level off (stochastic) look at the daily stochastic approaching oversold. rarely ever got there. Look at moves made out of this area in past on daily. We are turning the corner here.

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  38. Lalla, I understand your feeling upset. You have to understand, many people lost alot of money on what happened sunday night. we have our crooked government to thank for that. I trade what I can afford to loose. sometimes we learn the hard way

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  39. "waffen said...
    follow up on my post..

    "Presently, China's markets are closed for the May 1st holidays and will open next week."


    is this true? no wonder we are being murdered if true"

    Someone has an answer?

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  40. We have a pawn shop here that buys US silver coins at 20% under spot and sells them for 10% under spot with no sales tax. I just bought a truck load of Peace and Morgan silver dollars, some in nearly unc condition, for $28 each. I bought another truck load of halves for $13 a piece, and paid up for some silver eagles. I paid $40 with no tax.

    He usually only has a few halves, quarters and dimes, but this time he was loaded. He was also scared. These pawn brokers buy with borrowed money. The moral of the story is that he had all that extra inventory because people out there are also scared and they are dumping. It's not just the paper silver market that's deleveraging. This silver sell-off is getting some legs. I only hope I bought right and that I'm not the greater fool.

    "Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own". Baron de Rothschild

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  41. Markus, it was answered, they were back open the 3rd.. so last night was just a little weak by the chinese. hopefully now they will buy like a dragon eating virgins.

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  42. Ginger

    Got it. Thanks.

    Never traded an option in my life. But I understand the math. And more importantly I understand (through personal, expensive experience) risk management and how a lot of leverage can give greed and fear a leg up on you if you are not careful and make you do things you normally wouldn't do.

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  43. Indeed nothing in the fundamentals have changed. A certain thing is that the Comex will face a huge challenge towards July.

    These daily margin hikes are ridiculous but again they show the EE is desperate and losing its Empire slowly.

    For now they beat us with everything they have (wouldn't be surprised if our solid support of 39,90 will be found this week) but after that we will take over the battle!

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  44. Lalla, if you can't afford to lose the money, you shouldn't be trading PMs. The PM market is just as manipulated as the ES. If you're concerned about preserving wealth, the only orders you should be placing are those that originate at your local coin shop.

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  45. @Markus it's May 4 in china allready...

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  46. atlee - I can tell that you are a man in your element. I love it. Do you ever have an out-of-body experience and hear your own voice and think "My God, I'm Rainman?" ...or Beautiful Mind, too.

    Guessing Eric#1 gets that way during Tax season - I know I do.

    Anyway, I understand like 6.2% of the words in your last post (that is, only the numerals), but I will put an hour or so into unraveling. Thanks as always for being around here - I think we Sophomores get a lot of strength from having our Seniors to look up to.

    ~Magis00

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  47. "lalla"

    "but the assured confidance that he presents is misleading to people who don't know better."

    who exactly "doesn't know better"? and if u can answer "i don't know better" than why r u trading?

    also how the hell can u trade if u don't have confidence in ur own decisions? dear god, can't even imagine what ur daily life decisions must be like.....

    it's this type of pussy crap that usually has ripped apart wonderful trading forums in the past i have been a part of....slowly as the losses mount people start to freak out, then complain, then eventually the owner will just disappear or shut down the site so they don't have to listen to the constant nagging...

    turd, don't even read that crap man, the VAST majority of us love ur help, up or down.

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  48. Bought my first Libertads on that dip - cheapest of the 1 oz coins (at least right now) where I buy. Just a pity about that darn 20% VAT. :)

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  49. atlee: do you think we will see another 10% down day tomorrow?

    Markets in Tokyo are closed tomorrow and I gather the same is true of China.

    Retest of $36?

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  50. Gee Turd, I went to your website and lost millions because I saw your specific instructions and ignored them and just said "IM BULLISH, ALL IN, NO HEDGEIE". My lawyers will be in touch soon...

    ...be an adult, suck it up when YOU make a mistake. Unless Turd was making your trades, it is your own damn fault, period.

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  51. All I know is the base metals and particularly copper are flashing a contrary signal here that may mean that things are not as they appear. I would go read the Marco G link that me and Waffen posted and think about it.

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  52. Well put, SoccerDad. Personal responsibility, not a nation of victims and lawyers and taxpayer bailouts. THAT'S how we got here.

    A man's gotta know his limitations.

    Keep callin' 'em like you see 'em, Turd.

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  53. @lalla

    I know what you mean. The Turd exudes confidence. It seeps from every nuance and every word. Now this is not his fault - it is just part of his Turdiness. Combine that with his excellent track record, a dash of greed and you can easly get a sense that you can’t lose!

    That is why I always like to balance any view or thesis (including my own) with contradictory opinions. For instance, take Yukon who I find to be an excellent source of reason. His posts here and on his blog along with Kid Dynamite got me to out of the silver paper market last week. By listening to these two I have also come to the conclusion that PSLV is not all its cracked up to be and actually trade in SLV. I know, burn me.

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  54. THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT:

    Everyone, please read this article:
    http://www.thestreet.com/story/11103387/1/gold-and-silver-fail-to-find-upside.html

    "The CME has raised margin requirements again for silver by another 11.6%, the third time in a week. It will now cost a trader $16,200 to buy a 5,000 ounce contract.

    THE MOVE WILL GO INTO EFFECT TUESDAY AFTER MARKET CLOSE...

    In contrast, it only costs $6,751 to buy a 100 ounce gold contract, which at current prices is worth $154,300 while silver's 5,000 ounce contract is worth $222,350.

    ~~~~~~~
    This could explain a lot!
    ~~~"THE JEEPSTER"

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  55. btw don't forget either that this is a free site and the guy actually responds to us. i've been in trading groups whr they are charging $150-200 per month for worse information and when the losses mount the owners get very quiet and barely respond!

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  56. Ircsum,

    You made a wise decision. I love Libertads and the coin is underloved and underappreciated by most. Which is fine by me because that just means more for folks like us. Write this down and believ me, when I ever go to sell or trade my physical silver the "Nike shoe of the coin world" eagles are the first to go.

    What year were your Libertads?

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  57. In a couple-three months. All of these shenanigans will be but a distant by gone memory. Down the memory hole if you will.

    Continue stacking physical. BTFD(s).

    When ol' POSX dies. You will be able to live...

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  58. Magisoo,

    I second you. Atlee knows his shit. He is a boon to Turdlandia. Unfortunately, Atlee has been denied membership in the Idiot's Club.

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  59. @Ircsum, that's why I buy gold with 0% VAT, silver has 22% VAT here(eastern europe)

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  60. Yukon - are you talking about the Goombahr link or another one?

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  61. Well said by Mr Hunt:

    http://tinyurl.com/3h84j7w

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  62. Turd is telling you guys the trade.....look for a low at 40 if it holds and restests then it should hold....but if it breaks for 36 is in the cards......this easily has the mo mo for 36.....not sayin it will but a lot of margin damage....to some big players here....that was always the intentiion of the big boyz in letting it run up....the long term bull is still intact this is a VERY healthy pullback and turd KNOWS it.

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  63. Yukon - nevermnd, I would say it obviously is and even if not, it's interesting.

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  64. atlee thanks. I follow all but the part about the daily stochastic approaching oversold. Do you mean it had been there for days and started to move away? That i do see.

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  65. I just have to say that I feel very badly for lalla.

    I really truly do.

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  66. Zenith,

    I appreciate the words, but I'd rather not be mentioned in the same post as an obvious troll like "lalla".

    If you make your investment decisions on newsletters, websites, forums, random conversations with your pet groomer, your Gramma or any family member, random pieces of paper you find on a trader's desk, or anything other than WHAT YOU DETERMINE AND DECIDE TO DO then you are a total asshat.

    Personally I hate it when people say they bought something because I did it. That makes you a tool. Buy it because you did the due diligence and you wanted to. All I want to do is bring up ideas and things for you to think about and look into.

    I'm sure Turd is the same.

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  67. Just bought a sleeve of maples at 50.14 on Apmex. Feels good.

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  68. Perhaps TF could offer some guidance on the size of his positions he opens and closes in terms of the total % of his wealth? No need dollars and cents numbers. Instead of a "shit load of money", a "200% profit on this trade adding 5% to my account size" would be a great addition to the trading guidance.

    This would assist the greener traders among us in gauging a sensible level of risk to take. I am certainly guilty of using too much margin.

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  69. Ginger said... "Catseyenu & Eric,
    I'm over on the last thread just talking to myself not realizing that TF posted a new thread lol. ...Anyway.. I didn't want to repost on a new thread but had a response to you both on the last thread."

    I saw it, TY!

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  70. SSK


    My felicitations to you - it's rare that I have to actually chomp down on mouth pieces to keep from laughing out loud at work.

    Maybe Atlee could be a guest speaker at a meeting. Or come pay us idiots a visit once a month like the Beatitudes say: "visit the sick, the imprisoned, the [idiot paper Ag traders]" ...

    Or how about a lifetime achievement award? A scholarship fund named after atlee for aspiring non-idiots?

    "The Atlee Annual Asshole Award, given to the Turdite who is the biggest idiot of the year." I can see it now ... I'm getting a little misty-eyed.

    Happily, my ~30% loss in AGQ is just a bit shy of 100k. Holy fracking opposite-of-yellow-hat-worthy pandemonium, batman.

    Clearly I need to get back to the books.

    10-4, my people.

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  71. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUfeNzrhPrg PHYSICAL for the win. Don't let them scare you.

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  72. repost since nobody seemed to care:
    -
    "I'll be glad when all these holidays are over across the world, it seems like anytime there's a holiday things hit the fan!"

    This seems to be a rather large and active blog. Can't somebody offer to keep an eye on dates of foreign holidays and post them early on?
    It really seems to have an impact on prize action.
    Just a suggestion. Might be as important as making spread sheets.
    -

    --> did anyone post yet when holidays in asia end? My trading platform tells me japan is partying until the 5th..?

    Greetz

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  73. Turd Ferguson said... "Just bought a sleeve of maples at 50.14 on Apmex. Feels good."

    $45 at BD

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  74. Just visited my favorite coin store and bought a 10oz slab. Love the "KaChink" when they stack.

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  75. Yukon,

    I took delivery of 5 Libertads this week. Your enthusiastic blog post twisted my arm. Beautiful coins. Only problem now is I want more.

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  76. Thinking our Great Panther sale from last week will go through now.

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  77. Here you go, this will get you all thinking. Check out points 2, 3, 8, 10, 20, and ESPECIALLY 23. Enjoy!

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_050311.html

    He is dead on about 2 and 3. These margin hikes were your warning. Continue the speculation and they will go to 100%. Save this post because you'll want to refer back to it if the speculation doesn't cool off and you wonder how it all got to that point.

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  78. Mr. TF,

    Just joined. Your blog as well as SGS's and Harvey's are excellent reading and good entertainment to boot - thanks! :)
    have been following these blogs for many months now..

    I have a question. Perhaps yourself or other readers can answer this?
    Even though PSLV / PHS.U shares are backed by audited physical silver, is there a possibility of a 'price disconnect' from physical bullion with this ETF.... I am interested in getting in at the bottom (wherever that may be) again..
    Bought SPLV at 15/share, got out yesterday morning with good profit.

    Thank you,

    Bigblockpower

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  79. I ordered my ASE's yesterday.

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  80. @Yukon

    Well this ass hat has been doing pretty damn well with his investments the past decade. You see I am not as smart as you guys when it comes to analyzing the markets nor do I have the time. But I am smart enough to disseminate all the various information out there and who is talking shit and who isn't :)

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  81. @Darth smoker

    Thanks for your help. What kind of percentage off of spot is she likely to get offered. I am not wanting to steal them from her but would still like a nice deal for both of us.

    Thanks

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  82. i still get a kick out of people looking for recourse against a guy named turd furgason. it's great advice, but if it's goes south the person is left kicking themselves for trusting a guy named turd furgason. i absolutely love it. he can't go wrong.

    it's analogous to jon stewart's appearance on crossfire, "the show that leads into mine is puppets making crank phone calls." LOL - classic positioning!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFQFB5YpDZE&feature=related

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  83. mr1776@4:24...So simply but elegantly put. This is the essence of what stacking is all about.

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  84. You can buy American Eagles for $43.98 Cdn J and M anywhere in North America 1-888-244-9999

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  85. @ WAFFEN

    China was only off APR 30-may 2 here is a link to there holiday calendar

    http://www.travelchinaguide.com/essential/holidays/calendar.htm

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  86. @lalla - sorryto say it, but it's your own damn fault for gambling with money you couldn't afford to lose. Holders of physical have lost zero ounces during all this. Paper profits are just icing on the cake. Physical is the main course.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Yukon - 2011. The premium on Eagles is crazy, even Maples today. But the premiums on all the coins vary from day to day. I've got some Eagles & Maples so was pleased to see the Libertad trailing on the price comparison this evening. Plenty of dry powder to buy more if the wheels drop off the silver price.

    Torpedo fish - true about 0% VAT on gold, but I'm basically a poor man ;)

    ReplyDelete
  88. The bears are out again

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9LcKcXpCDE&feature=player_embedded#at=32

    ReplyDelete
  89. Blackswan, you are not "the greater fool" as those are yesterday's prices (and I am not referring to last week's) that you paid.

    I have a coin-shop story or two...but they mostly go something like this: "I can let you have these for [whatever, let's say $50+] or I'm not selling. Paid more than that last week, and it's going up." Heard that more than once this week. And my favorite non-coin dealer sold out nearly his entire stock last weekend at over $50, so neither he nor his customers are complaining.

    Ol' Michael

    P.S. Glad I didn't actually dip my toe into paper yet...

    ReplyDelete
  90. @Eric

    I know someone who has just found a huge box of silver coins that was left to her. She wants to sell them. What is the best way of going about buying them. Should I use coinflations numbers and offer a percentage of that? Any input anyone? I have no idea what kind of coins yet.

    ReplyDelete
  91. i believe i said i did not blame turd, and i believe i said i know it was my own fault. but if i got carried away, then others might, because believe it or not, there are others with less experience than i have.
    i am a fan of turd. mine is a cautionary tale.

    ReplyDelete
  92. what a freakin' day, ay??? I guess I'm glad I'm so busy at my job making a modest amount of Benny Bucks that I was able to trade some in for 20 silver Buffs during the dip!
    Hated that I couldn't drive over to GVille Coins and just pay the cash, so went online and used the cred card instead...that sucks because they tack on a small percentage more, but they were still only a little more than 43/oz...fine by me.
    At least I was able to grab 'em and not pay the 18 for shipping since I can just pick 'em up at their shop once they get them in...they're always "out", but ya never can tell.
    Wanted 40 of them, but I'm going to wait the next several days out and see if I can't get 20 more at an even lower BTFD opportunity!
    Thank you Capt. Turd!

    ReplyDelete
  93. Man I hate the EE.

    I am bleeding red here on AGQ.

    Anyone setting stops on AGQ? If so, what are they?

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  94. lol - stops. yes, yesterday. sorry, that was rude. risk management is key with these leveraged ETF's. fo sho.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Spot gold and silver drifting down a little after-hours. Be careful.

    ReplyDelete
  96. by the way...the premium on silver Buffs at GVille Coins is still very low at $1.10 Bennies over spot.
    Just an FYI in case anyone was looking for those kinds of rounds. Helluva lot cheaper than most other rounds out there.

    ReplyDelete
  97. ahhh, and i want to say that i found out through this debacle that the ee has even more power than i thought. as much power as it has demonstrated the last two years, i got caught underestimating it .

    ReplyDelete
  98. Ginger said... "I just have to say that I feel very badly for lalla."

    I'm thinking lalla is a disinformation agent.

    ReplyDelete
  99. "Do not underestimate the power of The Force..."

    Especially the dark side.

    ReplyDelete
  100. I think Maples are beautiful - very nice, classic design. My personal favourite is Canadian Wolf, absolutely the best. Then Kookaburras. Then there's a proof-like version of Libertad. Eagles are the most ugly, and it's nowhere stated on the coin it's 999 silver. "Fine" is just not enough for me. I'm happy that I only bought one (I bought every type of coin once just to see how it feels to hold it - I strongly recommend the same approach to everyone: you deserve to fully enjoy L&F)

    ReplyDelete
  101. From last thread:
    May I remind you the wise words of:

    "Go WITH the trend".

    --Stop complaining about it going down, lets make fiat out of this downtrend and go buy running to the coin shop with it!

    I'll go for yet another 1k brick, I dont like coins.

    My family has always been a silver and gold supporter.
    My father bought silver before the 70's rally, during the 80's rally and crash, and kept on buying in the 90's, 'till his death. I'm doing the same.
    Forget about price, play the trend game and make more fiat to get more gold & silver.

    I gave you a small chart to check out, nobody saw it nor commented about it. Feel ignored, but well.. I hope you guys at least find some kind words out of desperation. My gut feeling is we're going back to the trend (else COMEX will default very fast and.. never forget that it's TBTF)

    ReplyDelete
  102. @ Summo

    anything and everything is possible.
    I beleive what I said. I am only human so I could be wrong. It has happened before. I am just a monkey man

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOIqauJ3_WU&feature=related

    ReplyDelete
  103. I would like to BTFD but I am OOFM -

    OUT OF FUCKING MONEY!!!

    Time to sit in the car in the garage and leave the motor running.

    ReplyDelete
  104. PS That's sarcasm, everything is completely under control here in Pabloville! Read my post from yesterday!

    ReplyDelete
  105. Yukon,

    If you could please be so kind as to elaborate on to why for you "Eagles would be the first to go" when it's time to trade or sell physical silver.
    If you have previously explained, I must have missed it.

    I hold a mish mash of physical and for the first time I sold a small portion this past weekend.
    I chose to sell first my junkiest 90% silver, specifically very worn Walking Liberty Halves and some worn and scratched Peace dollars.

    The next to go in my hierarchy (if the appropriate opportunity comes) would be oddball, lesser known rounds and/or badly tarnished or ugly rounds as well as bullion that is not clearly marked as to weight or purity.

    I figured it would be smart to hang on longest to my universally known and better looking bullion, SAEs, MLs, Onzas, Libertads and so on.

    It sounds like you think different.

    Thanks in advance for your thoughts or any clarification.
    Tom T.

    ReplyDelete
  106. @ Pablo. I OOFM as well.

    Waiting on G.I. Bill, Financial Aid, VA bennies. Yes, I've been turning the government's own money against them haha.

    Plus gotta pay down the CC's. It's so easy to buy 'supplies' and prepare for the end of the keynesian experiment/collapse.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance are the 5 stages of grief. I think magis00, SSK and I at least have hit acceptance finally, humor gets you there faster. Lalla, you've hit bargaining I think, acceptance will come soon, don't get bogged down in depression (bad things can happen).

    I've been a helicopter pilot for over 22 years, above my desk is a poster that reads ' Aviation in itself is not inherently dangerous. But to an even greater degree than the sea, it is terribly unforgiving of any carelessness, incapacity or neglect.' I'm making another one that changes Aviaton with 'Paper Gold/Silver'.

    Turd, we need another Blythe/Ruprecht video please.

    ReplyDelete
  108. I believe part of the problem is that Turd never addressed his earlier bullish calls before the market sold off $6.25. He instead boasted of his trading acuemen (such as selling his calls at the top) and left out how his positions fared loss-wise. Not talking about incurring a loss when clearly there must of have been maybe what has caused folks to come clean and warn other members, which is understandable.

    ReplyDelete
  109. So Turd what is a yogurt store anyway?

    I really want to know! We eat a lot of home-made yogurt in our Indian household!

    ReplyDelete
  110. New ZeroHedge article:
    "Comex Physical at multi-year lows."

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-decline-registered-silver-brings-total-comex-physical-multi-year-lows

    ReplyDelete
  111. @lalla of course they have more power than we do! Paper power. They're paper masters, paper lords and barons. Paper kings with paper crowns (ok, maybe thungsten...). They can do __anything__ from raising margin to 100% and declaring force majeure to crashing US stock market just to crash paper value of true money (commodities essentially) along with everything (that actually serve other purpose: scare some money into bonds).

    When you observe paper price diverges too much from what's offered on physical market - it's time to get out of any paper.

    @all do you think the attacks will continue untill options expiry ? I'm still shocked by what they did one year ago to Platinum and I still remember January - so I'd be tempted to give it another couple of days after Turd's bottom estimated schedule (May mid).

    ReplyDelete
  112. Uhhh...Unless you are a member of the oligarchy, risk is ALMOST ALWAYS inversely proportional to reward!

    Most people with a decent head on their shoulders, can recognize the truthful and trustworthy folks...even on the largely anonymous internet. Our social conditioning serves us well. That still doesn't mean that you would ever hand them the keys to your house!

    Besides knowledge (especially in investing) can't just be gleaned; It muse be INTEGRATED. The advice you follow is valid insofar as its assumptions, means and goals align with yours; Long-term outlook, short-term outlook, risk-aversion, pain-tolerance, years-to-retirement, target-lifestyle...the list goes on and on. Every statement and piece of advice one makes carries with it a huge number of assumptions.

    To actually APPLY advice towards any reasonable expectation or goal, you must internalize it. It seems so obvious and any intelligent person does this intuitively without thinking. But somehow when it comes to money, people constantly need reminding!

    If you heard someone say: "I highly recommend jumping off The Gorge Bridge. It's awesome!" on a BASE jumping forum, I sure as hell hope you realize that packing a parachute is probably one of the unspoken assumptions!

    ReplyDelete
  113. Hey Tom,

    Simple answer is because they're overpriced due to the completely indefensible and insane premium. The only reason that premium is there is due to demand. Let me be clear, I have no cash physical out strategy other than to move from one physical metal to another. (Once you go physical you never go back to fiat am I right?)

    So let's take for instance moving from silver to gold. I can take my Eagles and trade them in grabbing that additional premium and put that into my new physical metal of choice which would most likely be low premium gold coins. I don't like gold bars because of the assay most shops want on trade in.

    Later as the premiums cool back off on certain coins I will buy them and sell others. It's just a crazy little coin arbitrage play you can use to buy more physical. We were talking about this very subject yesterday on Kid Dynamites blog so you may want to check that out.

    I should say that I'm a bit of a numismatist so I'll always have my collector Eagles and such. However, when it's time to look at all my little silver children and decide which one I'm trading in for a new shiny gold, platinum, or palladium child the high premium ones will always go first.

    Don't worry, I hug them as they leave and they know they can always come back anytime and stay with me. :)

    ReplyDelete
  114. Can't help but scale in from here. Small specs started getting out of their longs last week and are probably heading towards net short given the momentum chasing bias, large specs cashed out over 15% of their longs last week and probably much more this week, and commercials are still net short by a ton of contracts.

    There's not much downside left once small specs officially turn net short since those are the dumb money investors here and commercials will likely jump at the chance to cover before small specs get scared into covering.

    BTFD, but scale in and don't overcommit capital. Leave some powder dry.

    ReplyDelete
  115. I'll ask this again since I posted it right on the end of the last thread: will the margin hikes in silver send a lot of money into gold, instead? Could the rally in gold be a lot bigger than perhaps we're expecting?

    ReplyDelete
  116. @ T Lane

    A upstanding fellow could offer 100% of coinflation prices for all the decent coins and perhaps offer 95% of coinflation prices for stuff that is not so ideal such as worn or dinged or scratched coins.

    At last weekend's coin show, dealers were offering 90-95% of melt for 90%. And that was at $47.94 silver. Since you would be getting a relative bargain at today's price, you could probably pay coinflation's prices for all but the very worst of it.
    Good luck.
    Tom T.

    ReplyDelete
  117. From Zerohedge:

    One would think that following the total "annihilation" (as it has already been pegged by some) in silver over the past few days, that Comex would promptly reverse its "temporary" reclassification of Registered into Eligible silver, or so the believers in Comex holdings claim. Which is why to our surprise we noticed that today, the Comex announced that the ongoing inverse reclassification from Registered into Eligible continues, with Scotia Mocatta seeing another 186 thousand ounces of physical silver moving into that dark pool known as "eligible" holdings.

    ----

    The EE is hurting.

    ReplyDelete
  118. ". said...

    lol - stops. yes, yesterday. sorry, that was rude. risk management is key with these leveraged ETF's. fo sho."

    -----------------------------------------

    I did set stops to lock in shares I had gains on. I let the shares I had losses on go because I was burned in January, not far from "Turd's bottom".

    So what stops would YOU set now? Want to contribute?

    ReplyDelete
  119. TRIPLE BTFD:

    today's Comex physical silver has now fallen to a fresh multi-year low of just 33.152 million ounces. Add to this the fact that there was another withdrawal of 300k ounces from Brinks, and one may wonder just how "justified" the fall in silver price has been over the past 2 days.

    ReplyDelete
  120. Lala,
    If you'd bought physical you wouldn't have 'lost' anything.

    ReplyDelete
  121. Yukon,

    OK, If you can receive the same or higher premium selling SAEs as buying them, then I better see your point. (I have never even tried to sell SAEs). Your point grows stronger as the premiums grow wider.

    In my neck of the woods, MLs and Onzas did not command any premiums before last summer but now they typically do. Bummer!

    FWIW I took the FRNs from my junk silver sale and bought three 1/4 gold eagles so I am definitely with you on that score.

    Tom T.

    ReplyDelete
  122. magis00

    During the height of tax season? Shit, sometimes I scare myself...

    ReplyDelete
  123. Ircsum

    Mexico Libertad's?? I like the older ones from the 80's. Beautiful, beautiful coin. Congratulations.

    http://www.providentmetals.com/1-oz-mexico-silver-libertad-coin-brilliant-uncirculated.html

    ReplyDelete
  124. I feel like I should post my experience for the week in the school of hard knocks:

    Started paper investing in mid-February. Been a physical holder for about a year. I have come to know that to ever be a good/successful trader you have to graduate from "The School of Hard Knocks." There is no way around it.

    There is no one that just comes into this "winning" and stays "winning." Why? Because we are all succeptable to the same human emotions, mainly fear and greed. Every trader has to learn to control themselves and it is costly, but in the end rewarding.

    As of last week I had grown my $26,000 investment into $37,000. It now sits at $22,000. (X2 leverage trading AGQ, liquidated today after margin call, will be requesting to be taken of pattern day trader status.) Am I giving up, no. A diploma at the school of hard knocks is not cheap, but it will pay off in the end...if you make it through.

    Tonight when I get on my knees I don't ask why, I thank God for the experience, ask for more wisdom, and thank Him again for the fact I am among the few who even know why silver has been and is the investment of a life time.

    @ Atlee and other Senior Traders, thanks again for being here and don't you dare leave.

    @ Turd, if it was't for you this 23 year old would have lost it all before he started, keep up the good work, silver could just as easily be at 55 right now. I sure don't blame you for anything.

    ReplyDelete
  125. just a thought..

    could smart money be selling out of SLV because they know its going to go to $0 when comex defaults?

    ReplyDelete
  126. I hope precious metals newbies have not been emotionally derailed by last night’s obvious ambush of silver by the corrupt Wall Street bullion bank cartel.


    http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/05/03/silver-pure-criminality/

    ReplyDelete
  127. Darth Smoker

    LOL, I busted a gut laughing at that one!!!!! Sorry guys, it's gallows humor, and I know the blood is still fresh on the floor, but OMG I'm gonna have sore abs from that one!!!

    ReplyDelete
  128. Spencer,

    You have no idea how valuable the experience you had is. I had a post a month or so about where I called it "Burned By Fire". Everyone should be lucky enough to have that experience. It makes you a better trader and investor. It's worth the cost - if you learn from it.

    Most of us know what it means to be burned by fire. Remember how your parents tried to tell you growing up, "Don't play with matches" and "Don't touch the stove". No matter how much they tried to explain it you just can't comprehend it and appreciate it until you get burned yourself. There's nothing like those lessons. They stay with you and change you - you never forget. Investing can burn you as well.

    People tell you to hedge, take precautions, keep some powder dry, etc. But you never quite appreciate it until you get burned. I'm not talking about a trade that goes bad on you, I'm talking about your total net worth suddenly dropping 80... 90... 100% You go through the seven stages and all that shit. This can't be happening! Your so sick you want to puke - maybe you do. You can't look your family and those you love in the eye. You keep imagining what it would be like and where you'd be if things had just went your way! They should have went your way! Damnit you could have been rich! Hell you were rich! This is bullshit! Why me? Screw the world and everyone in it. What did you do wrong? Analyze. Re-analyze. Analyze again. Everything is gray. Hopefully if you're lucky this is where resilience (or madness) kicks in and you pick yourself up and start over from scratch. Most give up and never invest again.


    I bet you feel like you have a whole new vision and outlook don't you? Hold onto it and it will serve you well.

    ReplyDelete
  129. Lala - I feel our pain. There but for the grace of fate.....

    But the Turd kept telling us he was flat silver. He was constantly anticipaing a correction on teh horizon. I sold all my physical last Thursday mainly because of what he was saying. I don't see that he called it wrong. Sorry.

    ReplyDelete
  130. you newbies on these boards.....llala is a pro troll.....don't respond to the dipchit

    ReplyDelete
  131. If we see $32-$35 again, I will buy silver by selling my old car or my 3 year old, whichever is behaving worse at the time :)

    ReplyDelete
  132. "Presently, China's markets are closed for the May 1st holidays and will open next week."

    Yes the fact that the Chinese markets are closed were definitely a part of the takedown strategy, along with three margin hikes, the Weekend close and opening Globex thin trading hours. This market is clearly rigged and criminal to the extreme.

    ReplyDelete
  133. From Jessi's Cafe

    "These are wild, triple black diamond markets. These are big changes occurring, understood by very few, and emotions will be running high.

    If you are not a very experienced trader, better to stay off the slopes and as far away from leverage as you can get"

    Santa is in the same camp

    ReplyDelete
  134. Such holidays should always be considered as part of ones strategy when making investment decision in the PM markets. Those of us who were unaware of this long Chinese holiday, and did not take it into account in our projections, have made a big mistake.

    ReplyDelete

  135. ==========================================
    TWO ITEMS:

    A) Trading tip regarding EE raids was
    Paul Breed's suggestion, not mine

    B) Shan't post much in future -- Shall be on hiatus
    ==========================================

    Pailin wrote:
    ==================================
    Hey all, was locked out yesterday in weirdo blogger scenario.

    [ snip, snip ]

    I believe one of the Pauls (Breed? or Bain? not sure which [one]) mentioned a buy strategy during a raid using Netdania 5min chart and volume. I used that yesterday for the first time and it worked wonders! Combined with my existing timing schedule (typical raids 8-10:30am, 12-1:30pm) and implementation of RSI on the 5min I grabbed two bottoms within 10 cents of absolute. Fabulous!! I've been trading pretty well all month, but was leaving a fair bit on the table by buying dips too early based on 1min chart. 5min is definitely better, at least for how I work. I'd never recommend anybody day trade and definitely never recommend anybody follow my trades, but DYODD and play if you like the risk/reward. There is fast fiat to be made :)

    Thanks Paul xxx!!

    April 29, 2011 9:01 AM
    ==================================

    Pailin,

    I am glad that you found success with this trading tip, but I cannot claim credit for suggesting it, which credit properly belongs to Paul Breed. BTW, I have found a few of your trading tips interesting, too, but have not had time to try any of them.

    Above, you claimed that you were "locked out yesterday [due to a] weirdo blogger scenario." I gather that Blogspot would not allow you to post a comment hereto -- Is that correct? Well, I have been experiencing the same difficulty, which is why I was not able to respond to your comment until now.

    Furthermore, recently, this software bug has actually become worse. Consequently, my frustration with Blogspot's commenting software has reached the boiling point; I cannot brook it any longer. This frustration impels me to sharply reduce the frequency of my posts.

    Gawd, I hope that The Turd rolls out his new website and web software soon. I hate BlogSpot's commenting software.

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

    ReplyDelete
  136. i'm still holding 70% of my position from the weekend - i sold 30% for a loss at 45:20 yesterday evening. I may sell some more if we get above 44, as a drop below 37.5 would wipe that account out.

    I still have 10k in dry powder in my other broker account. Is 40-42 still a good part to buy in ? I'm also thinking of using leverage that would only wipe my account out if it drops 10 dollars from the buy price ... is this good thinking or am i just being greedy BTFD ?

    ReplyDelete
  137. I am afraid of the boogey men ya know so I will not be on the blog tonight. I may be wrong, I may be early but I think we are at or near the bottom and thus I went home long some AGQ purchased lower than the close. Right now I look at it as a trading position until I the mkt shows me otherwise. That means I am not married to it and will trade out in a heartbeat if I am wrong or if I get a good rally that starts to fade. GLTA and have a good night and ps; I hate the freaking miners but I bought more NGD today.

    ReplyDelete
  138. I CANNOT believe it!!

    I CANNOT believe it!!

    I was finally able to post a comment to Turd's blog again, for the first time in almost a week. H0ly sh1t, this must be my lucky day!!

    See my comment above. That's the first one by me in almost a week.

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

    ReplyDelete
  139. atlee,

    Thanks for your post!!

    ReplyDelete
  140. T Lane

    hard to say, without knowing what they are. But generally I think you could add up any halves, quarters, dimes dated 1964 or earlier and pay face value, times .715, times spot. Any Morgan or Peace dollars, do the same at .77. That's a ballpark. If you can get it maybe 5% cheaper, more power to you. That would still be fair, not stealing.

    ReplyDelete
  141. @paulbain,

    Just a thought, but the email in your signature might be tripping the spam filters (non-deterministic since it depends on how it views the rest of the post too), causing it to be sent to /dev/null. I've noticed it hates URLs too.

    ReplyDelete
  142. Lalla: Officer, I'd like to make a complaint. I've been robbed of all my investment money.

    Officer: Ok sir, can you give me more details on the crime?

    Lalla: Well, officer, I was making leveraged investments in the Comex, under the advice of an Internet website run by Turd Ferguson, and the Comex has pulled some illegal actions and...

    Officer: Wait, Turd Ferguson?

    Lalla: Yes, the web site is run by one Turd Ferguson. I hold him responsible for goading me into this investment.

    Officer: You invested your life savings on the internet advice of someone named Turd Ferguson?

    Lalla: Yes, officer, this is a very serious matter. I've lost over one hundred thousand dollars and I don't know...

    Officer: Bwahahahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaa haha

    ReplyDelete
  143. tpbeta said...

    Lala - I feel our pain. There but for the grace of fate.....

    But the Turd kept telling us he was flat silver. He was constantly anticipaing a correction on teh horizon. I sold all my physical last Thursday mainly because of what he was saying. I don't see that he called it wrong. Sorry.
    -------------------------------------

    Man, I would sell ALL my paper before I sell my physical.

    This fiat paper experiment called the Federal Reserve Note is FAR from over.

    ReplyDelete
  144. To Lalla:

    Turd actually did tell us this would happen. It just happened a week earlier than he estimated and the EE did things that no one could predict to make it happen fast and furiously. I lost a lot too, but am just waiting it out until it goes back up. That is the key when peoplesay to "not lose more than you can afford" or playing with margins you cannot cover. Remember, Turd also said that when it bounces back by a June estimated time frame, silver could read $60 to $70. So I am hanging tight and will look back at this in about a month from now like it is just a bad hang-over after a wild party. -Rich

    ReplyDelete
  145. But seriously, I lost a lot a lot of money too but am trying to take it in stride. I posted yesterday about that. I'm sorry but I had to make the joke, the name Turd just makes it too hilarious to imagine someone trying to bring suit or complain about the advice they received here.

    If I lost everything I had though, $100k, I probably would be dead now, I'm not sure if I could handle that.

    Our family's means are very meager compared to all your rich barons on here.

    ReplyDelete
  146. Get Ready

    10 minutes until the hammer drops

    ReplyDelete
  147. @Torx

    I'm in the trap as well - I could set the bottom for everyone else by dumping, or I can hang and add the dry powder I have waiting when we call the bottom (heh, right) You're looking for the stop, I'm looking for the spot to buy in. This is like poker in that no lessons come for free. I've learned more than I've wanted to know in the last few days. I've gone through this with the equity market in the past, and learned from it. I have a lot more faith in what I'm doing here than I had in what I was doing there.

    And you have to be able to admit to yourself that whatever you do, be it sell or buy, you do it based on a leap of faith in your own information and due diligence. I got myself into this, I can get myself back out.

    I'd also like to point to the piece from Bill Gross in ZH today, emphasizing the historical relationship in what the Fed is planning for our future bond yields (i.e. less than nothing) and how the Fed handled the bond market post-WW2 through the 60's. This lines up with what I've learned by reading Jim Grant, and I think it really points to the strength of our fundamentals. Note the similarity in the ratio of debt/GDP between that time and now. Unfortunately, our world wide market share isn't what it was in 1946.

    ReplyDelete
  148. Does anybody else here smell a whiff of 2007? Admittedly I am a bit red-faced for not paying attention to the warnings which were posted even here, and have only myself to blame for paying more for Physical than I should’ve this week.

    But the fundamentals remain in place, and cold hard reason dictates to verify an uptrend is in place before buying more.

    But on the emotional side, $28 for a Silver Dollar sounds hard to resist.

    BlackSwan sounds like you did well by filling your truck with Morgans & Halves at the pawn shop. And even if the Spot price continues its dip…uptofreedom said it best with “Holders of physical have lost zero ounces during all this.”

    -Mammoth

    ReplyDelete
  149. @paulbain
    Thanks for responding. As you surmise, my issue with Blogger was not being able to post. I kept up by reading and trading where it worked. And it worked. Feel free to practice my strategy. So far so good. I'm still refining it.

    Here's something new. I used to run 3-5 positions at any time, buying oversold and selling undersold, 1/3 or so at a time. This worked fine when the market was greatly trending up. I was able to capture more of the upside yet still lock in some profits too in case of a sharp reversal. I continued doing the same when we started trending down. By keeping so many extra positions on I was just weighing down my losses even more. What I'll do now is buy more carefully but heavier at great prices and sell same back out, going flat in between. Until we're in a clear up trend channel again I don't need to carry anything extra a good buy and a good sell are good enough. When we start channelling north again, I may or may not go back to the former method. Right now my greed factor is greatly muted. I merely seek safe but still rich gains.

    Speaking of which, I'm seeing that XAG has taken a nice little dip since re-open and may test my RSI 20 soon. If so, I might get it and grab something quick before the rest of the Far East is up and running and likely bids it up.

    ReplyDelete
  150. Spencer

    You've learned a valuable lesson. I can tell you've got your head on straight and you are going to be OK. :)

    WOrd Ver: rasta
    seriously, I haven't done any of that shit in years.

    ReplyDelete
  151. Couldn't help but notice there seems to be more sniping, angry posts and people taking pot-shots at one another here this week than ever before.

    Let's lighten up.

    What's that rule?
    Never invest more than you can afford to lose. Or, as I tell my 5-year old, "Don't put all your eggs in one basket."

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  152. @ waffen, torpedo fish, Harry, Markus. titan AE

    Sorry to inform that Shanghai, Hongkong, Sydney, and Singapore do not trade silver futures. I trade Tokyo and they are on holiday from 3rd to 5th inclusive:
    http://www.tocom.or.jp/guide/calender/index.html

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  153. Testing
    Testing
    Wow, are these posts even showing up? What is wrong with this thing? Why bother posting if it doesnt show up and nobody reads it

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  154. Torx1953

    I don't doubt it will go above $50 soon enough. But a profit is a profit.

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  155. I can't count how many times I've BTFD and by the time the pgk arrived at my door it was worth $3-4 more. I just work off 10x multiples and dollar cost avg my physical holdings. Last buy was at $43, now currently looking at the $38 range. Will watch it and if it blows it away to the low side, I hold flat for a day or two.

    If you carry too much weight and get over exposed you can get burned. I knew this was coming, just kind of surprised it was in May and not June.

    Last I checked we peaked at 1.56x the 200dMA last week. Now were at a much more comfortable 1.3x. I won't be too shocked to see it test $31.

    Just when you think it's over, it's not. Just when you loose faith, it snaps back. That's how the cookie crumbles.

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  156. Silver Discussion CNBC Peter Schiff 5/3/2011

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiHOknhSzQk

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KG1DDlvSos

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  157. Pablo

    I see your posts. Just hang on to those Kings like grim death and you'll be OK. :=)

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  158. Physical silver is NOT an investment. Am I alone on this? Sure the hell hope not...

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  159. Right on, Turd! The short-term trend is down. I follow the daily MACD religiously and it has served me well. Other than physical I am 90% in cash. I have stopped trying to play the down wave so much and instead catch the move up, especially when it crosses up below the zero line. I am already salivating at the chance to load the wagon at the right time. "A trend remains a trend until proven otherwise."--Edwards and Magee Now I am quoting gospel. Rock on, fellow PM bugs. We are indeed winning! Nothing like having a boat load of cash near the bottom!

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  160. That hammer. What'd I tell ya

    4chan knows things, people

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  161. Listen to Peter Schiff on SILVER starts at 6:20
    Max Keiser He states it could be at the bottom at $40..

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  162. OK, it's been 48 hours and I've held my tongue, but if you come on the blog complaining about criminal activity, then you haven't learned a damn thing.

    You don't graduate. You go back two grades and start over.

    Sorry to be a hard ass. It's not my style. But sheesh people, grow up.

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  163. Somebody is throwing some volume at XAG right now. Not sure where this is going but it briefly tapped 40.50.

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  164. @ mezzrow

    Thanks for your response. I too am looking to buy more AGQ at "the bottom"...always the optimist here.

    My mistake was trading AGQ in a taxable account where the 30 day wash rule applies if I dump it at a loss; locking me out of a trade for thirty days. I'm so SICK of the tax laws that are stacked against the average investor. The EE doesn't have these issues.

    I am currently working at a site where I have NO computer access. Can you imagine waiting till quitting time to check the price of silver? Agony...

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  165. @Leonard
    That's all good, but few of us will take you merely at your word. No attribution or anything like that..just internet rumor. And silver has been going up and down a lot, nothing new under the sun there. Everybody likes good analysis, so next give us some of that too. Fair?

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  166. Hello Turd Herd,

    Volume on the SLV ETF has been enormous this week, today alone 5X normal volume. Does anyone know of a source for data on SLV regarding # shares short, naked shorts and/or fail to deliver shares?

    Curious to try to gain insight into how much SLV is being used as a tool for price suppression during this current sell off.

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  167. @Pablo wins the prize for best lalla bitch-slap smack-down.

    I'm sorry lalla, but if you lost $100k in the comex and blame Turd, you are a newbie. Or at least you WERE -- I guess not really anymore.

    By the way, I've lost more money than that in a single day. (Fortunately it was lost profit, not seed money.)

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  168. @Eric#1
    Maybe you mistyped Friday and meant 38 would hold? :)

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  169. Leonard said... "That hammer. What'd I tell ya

    4chan knows things, people"

    I'll bite, what's 4chan's take?

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  170. Catseyenu,
    Thank you for that.. ..Hmmm. Well, then I DON'T feel badly for him! :D

    No.. seriously.. *if* he/she is someone who truly got caught up in the trade and made mistakes (who am I to throw stones?..could have just as easily been me....and it WAS.....on a much smaller scale) ..well, I just think you don't kick a man when he's down ..That was all I was trying to say.

    But ...if what you think is true.. Well, then I have no sympathy for someone like that.

    I've said and I will continue to say. WE ARE EACH OF US RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR OWN TRADING DECISIONS. ..That goes for if we jump on a 'prediction' of TF's or not! ....TF is only a man afterall. Not a wizard!

    Or ...... ... IS HE??? *raised eyebrow* :D

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  171. A few BoS got liquidated on the open. One of them was was bitching about it prior to close in 4chan that they didn't get the margin transferred into the account in time this afternoon and would get liquidated when the market opened back up.

    I would not for your own sanity though go poking around in 4chan, it's a nasty unmoderated cesspool and you'll burn your eyes out of their sockets looking at what's posted there.

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  172. @Leonard
    Thanks. The full explanation gives a lot more color than your original statement. I almost bought the dip, as it tapped my RSI 20 target, but was concerned because we're at odd hours right now. Sucks for those guys, their dip was a loss and we're essentially back where we started. No real damage done except for those running stop/loss.

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  173. Stepping off now, see ya'll in the morning.

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  174. Pailin

    You're not going to give me a break on that one are you? LOL.

    I should leave that shit to the Turd.

    Honestly, I think picking silver numbers is a mugs game. Anything can happen. And always does....

    Everybody should note: When Turd made his famous 1600 by June gold call, he stayed away from a pick for silver. Turd was wise.

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  175. Hey guys,

    How can I trade miners with some leverage (about half as much as YI futures)?

    Thanks.

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  176. Yukon-

    With your "burned by fire" post, you have totally summed up my feelings of the last 2 days. "This can't be happening! Not to me! Not now!" So instead of losing a little up front, I've lost a whole lot later on. Well, I'm out with my skin intact, and the scorch marks will remind me to be a little less gung-ho and plot things out before I jump.... and maybe I'll listen to Yukon when he issues warnings...

    Thanks!

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  177. Shill - you never responded to my ZSL puts. looking for your take bro.

    I did kid, in the other thread, seem like a nice play, dangerous but nice.

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  178. Open interest at 130k (reading yesterday), down from 150k last Monday, and we had already been to 129k on Thursday. At Turd's bottom in January with silver at 26,5 we were at 123k. I'd say to have to get back to about that level to conclude that we're in the clear, or at least that further downside is limited.

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  179. @Eric#1
    Real fast, the joke is played out now, just fun because we're so close to the second number now. One has to find a bit of humor in that :)

    Should we get near 28, I may dust the cobwebs off. Just fair warning there.

    Anyway, I'm out, it's time for life.

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  180. Oh, where is the bottom... I need some comforting words. :/

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  181. Johan

    You are kidding, right?

    OK, in case you are not:

    GDX is larger miners
    GDXJ is smaller miners which will naturally have greater leverage than the big ones
    GLDX is even smaller miners, more inherent leverage
    SIL is silver miners only, which will give you more beta than you can stand.

    So, now why don't you take some matches and razor blades and go play in traffic for a while?


    (Oooh, boy I'm getting cranky now. Better go check the sauce and get supper on the table.)

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  182. Where's Xty?

    Where's Chin Music?

    If y'all see either of them wondering the halls of Turdingham Palace... please send them over to my cubicle here in the pauper's den.

    I wanted to thank Chin Music for his health related post (and to ask for the 2nd or subsequent parts that disappeared!) ....And I just wanted to find out if Xty had started trading options and to tell her that I'm GLAD she didn't buy in last week!

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  183. Like many people the price movement of silver in the last few days has left me wondering what to do about my holdings. I'm not on margin so I don't have to worry about being forced to sell, but I will admit I got caught with my hand in the cookie jar and am underwater in some of my holdings. Should I cut my losses and run, or should I hold out and maybe even put a bit more skin into the game. I don't like to base my desisions on assumptions and with all of the smoke an mirrors in the market I find it's best to try to put myself on the otherside of the trade.

    For every contract that is currently standing for delivery, someone had to promise to deliver that silver. Wether or not they have the silver is a moot point. Maybe they don't have it, and maybe they do but no longer want to sell it. If I wanted to get out of a contract without defaulting and without handing over my silver, what would I do?

    I'd try to offer the buyer something else that I had plenty of, like cash. In order for someone to accept my offer of cash instead of physical silver I'd have to make it very tempting. Standing for delivery is a fairly major commitment and in order to change the buyers mind, I have to make them an offer that they will percieve as in their best interest.

    I could offer them a very large premium of the contract price. This would work but end up being very costly as some people would still insist on the physical silver. I could use my cash reserves to buy silver to settle the contracts with, but that would take time and not benifit me. If I could somehow drive the price of silver lower then the contract price, and offer them a smaller cash premium it might be even more tempting to them. For example if their contract price was $45 and the current spot price was $42 and I was offering them $50 cash per OZ then instead of settling a contract for an immidiate loss, the buyer would be able to use the proceeds to purchase their silver either from another source or buy a new contract. As the buyer of the contract this would be hard to turn down. The buyer would still get the silver they wanted, and either a cash gain or an even larger silver holding. As the seller not only does this save me money, but it would also allow me to cover any outstanding short positions I may still have.

    Now this begs the questions, why wouldn't I just settle the contract and buy more silver at market prices. If I have a vault full of silver and I look at the current deliver month I see that there is 7,590,000 OZ currently standing for delivery and as of today 33,152,000 OZ registered. This means that 22.8% of registered silver is being asked for by customers. This means that all of the registered silver could be gone within 4-12 months. I might not be able to buy back any silver that I sell, and if I hold on to my silver while everyone else runs out, I'll be able to set my asking price.

    If I was on the selling side of a lot of silver contracts, bullish on the price of silver, had friends to help drive down the price and a surplus of cash this seams like the most logical course of action.

    Can anyone see any flaws in this logic?

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  184. @Leonard I'm aware of goes on in general at 4chan just not current events concerning the Ag markets. I find it difficult to swallow that they are BOS or interested at all but I wouldn't bet against it.

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  185. @Jimmy,

    Hey we aren't in an ENRON stock here. Silver will never go to $0. That you can be sure of. :)

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  186. Be nice, folks. Lalla just felt a little pain and did not mean to lay the blame upon Turd. I know that feeling as I started out as a rash NewBie as well. It's moment like this you realize why the gurus tell you to stay light on margin and leverages. You get it wrong you get slaughtered fast.

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  187. Let's Go Lightning! Hope there aren't any ticked off Caps fans on here, cuz it’s 1-0 good guys right now! :)

    Stopped by a newer, very small, coin shop by my work tonight. Had never been in there, but work w/ a guy who traded some sterling and junk silver coins in there a couple weeks ago. He’s only been open like 6 months now.

    He mostly had nice Morgan's and some MS69/70 ASE's in his glass counters. He also had 1 set of all 5 of the 5/oz America The Beautiful coins, but didn't want to sell them just yet.

    Nice guy...said that he was nearly all out of everything like Buffs, Eagles, etc., no bars either. Said he sold nearly 300/oz's yesterday and that he was glad due to the big dip today.

    Not sure if I believed him though...even joked around after a while asking him if he was holding out on me. It's a very small shop, so I wouldn't blame him if he had bought high recently and wanted to hold out for the next step up.

    After some more talking (I was the only customer anyway), I got the sense he was pretty cool, knew some of the same sites that I go to, but he had never heard of Turd Ferguson's TFMetalsReport!

    I told him briefly about how kick ass the site is and then he asked me if I owned any Austrian Philharmonics, which I do not.

    He said he had 3 of them, so I took a look...they're pretty cool looking, so at that point spot was 40.85 and he wanted 4 over, so I picked them up for 44.85 each (cash) and he didn’t even want to charge me 7% Florida sales tax which was very cool!

    GVille Coins definitely would have charged the 7% sales tax, plus copied my driver’s license and all that BS.

    Anyways...glad I stopped in and that I now have few different looking rounds in my phyzz collection. Will give one to my brother.

    Go Lightning, ay!? : )

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  188. Hey lalla, and anyone else feeling a bit down. Here is a reason to be happy, one of my favorite Sinatra Songs, seeming amazingly relevant here today:
    Riding high in April, shot down in May, But I know I'm gonna change that tune, when I'm back on top in June: THATS LIFE!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIiUqfxFttM

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  189. oh yeah, and a coin shop update, my local dealer was cleaned out this morning, he said he took a bath, no raising premiums, not hiding the inventory. He said he bought a ton of rounds at 48 and still sold them all today at 41. "I just write a minus on the books for the day he said" I have to respect that kind of honesty! I told him if he raised premiums I wouldn't complain, he said thanks, that dude is cool.

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  190. Johan and anybody else who is feeling suicidal

    Check out these ticker symbols:

    NUGT -- Gold Miners 2X Long
    DUST -- Gold Miners 2X Short

    There:
    Now you've got your matches and razor blades, you are in the middle of traffic, and I just tossed a pile of crack in your lap and said "you kids play nice and have fun."

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  191. lalla,
    Most of us got stung by this downturn. Sorry if everybody seems to dump on you after such a loss.
    Hey, this market will turn around. As Turd and the rest of us believe, the fundamentals are still in place. They kicked the debt ceiling issue down the road a little longer, but the Fed is printing at light speed. There will be a dollar crisis. There will be a time you will be glad to have real money.

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  192. hey lalla......you are a freakin troll.....so go ahead and keep shortin silver......but you are FOS.....

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  193. @SilverBleve
    Glad you found an honest coin shop.
    I'm very upset at all their bullshit the past two days with premiums and hiding shit.

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  194. @Badu yep! As Shakespeare wrote: "to be honest as this world goes is to be one man picked out of ten thousand"

    chins up everyone, this is when we regroup and strategize the next moves, We have a long way to go, we are invictus!

    Out of the night that covers me,
    Black as the pit from pole to pole,
    I thank whatever gods may be
    For my unconquerable soul.

    In the fell clutch of circumstance
    I have not winced nor cried aloud.
    Under the bludgeonings of chance
    My head is bloody, but unbowed.

    Beyond this place of wrath and tears
    Looms but the Horror of the shade,
    And yet the menace of the years
    Finds and shall find me unafraid.

    It matters not how strait the gate,
    How charged with punishments the scroll,
    I am the master of my fate:
    I am the captain of my soul.

    Did anyone listen to that Sinatra song? Franky's the MAN! lolz.
    "thats life, and I can't deny it, I thought of quitting but my heart wont buy it, but if theres nothing shaking come this here July...."

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  195. do coin shops hedge themselves, or just buy and hope the price does not drop before they sell?

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  196. From Harvey's Organ:

    The bankers are waging a paper silver war on paper longs. This is why I urge all of you not to play the crooked comex. The comex is nothing but a paper game. Do not use leverage whatsoever.
    Just go and buy the physical silver from your local dealer or bank. This is what will kill the bankers game.

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  197. SilverBleve

    Love that one. Thanks.

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