Sunday, May 8, 2011

Calling Mama Ferg

Just a short note this evening. I didn't want you to think I'd forgotten about you.

I still have to call Mama Ferg to wish her a happy Mother's Day. She reads this blog every day and has even taken to calling me "Turd" on some occasions. I must admit that its pretty funny to hear a 77-year old lady refer to her son as "Turd".

At any rate, silver is worth watching for the next few hours. The chart looks like it is going to break sharply, one way or the other. Because the ascending line in more steep than the descending line, chances are that silver will break higher and go test 36.50 and, beyond there, 37. However, since for the time being there are absolutely no limits to the shenanigans The Cartel is willing to pull, it could break lower, too. If it does, 34.25-50 has become pretty important support so we'll need it to hold or we're going to end up retesting the 33-33.50 area.

Either way, the action overnight is going to be technically significant so I'll be very curious to see where we are when I roll out of the rack tomorrow morning (U.S.).

Best of luck to all the Asian and Australian turdites. Please try to keep us afloat. TF

167 comments:

  1. Gold has just been beastly since jumping from 1473 to 1485. Some very nice consolidation and if it could find its way past 1500 again, I would imagine silver will light it up again as well.

    Happy mothers day Ginger, Xty, and other mothers. Even though it is just a hallmark holiday, it never hurts to have an excuse to be nice to the one who gave you life.

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  2. reposting from the last thread, too much typing went in to have it miss Turd's "new thread" by minutes. Glad to see you chimed in with a new post for us Turd, wasn't expecting another one until morning! Based on the trend so far since the market opened, I'm going to bet that the trend continues to the upside.

    From the last thread:

    China has gone from being an exporter of PM's and rare earth elements to being an importer. They currently hold 97% of the rare earth market and are cornering it and there isn't a damned thing the US can do to stop them when they run a monopoly in that sector and all of their resources are domestic.

    If I held the majority of US debt(assuming we don't count the Federal Reserve as our largest debt holder) I would want to build up my inventory of real wealth through PM's and rare earths before unloading all of my foreign debt holdings that are becoming even more worthless due to the debtor(US) printing more debt. China is only a few years away from taking over as the world economic powerhouse, I highly doubt that they would begin a fractional reserve metal market when they are working so hard to build up their inventory and resources. They have seen the route we have taken and are learning from it, expecting them to plant the seeds for self-destruction this early in their super power birth would be to underestimate them and their long term strategy when they hold all of the cards right now. It's not a matter of "if" they dump our debt into the market, it's "when". They technically own this country right now and there is no doubt in my mind that we have to ask them for permission before we do anything when it comes to debasing our currency. If they are on board with it, it's because they are already hedging against it and I'm willing to bet dollars against donuts that there will be no fractional reserve resource trading in their new gold trade or the other metals that enter that market soon after. At least not for now. Greed will eventually get the best of them, but we'll all be long gone before that happens. Empires only last 200 years on average, we are three decades beyond that historic average and they are just at the beginning of theirs.

    Gold Holdings By Country

    That's assuming we hold the reserves we claim to be holding and that China only has the reserves they claim to.

    China holds 97% of Rare Earths

    There's no denying the fact China owns the rare earth sector and there is no denying that rare earths are essential in everything from batteries, to hybrid motors, to green energy to electronics and military applications. Last year China said they would be reducing rare earth exports by 10% this year. Once this year arrived, they actually reduced rare earth exports by 35% in just the first quarter. China isn't dumb, China sees the writing on the wall and is preparing accordingly.

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  3. @ Scott,
    Now that you are back posting, just wanted to thank you for putting Revett on our radar a few months back. That has been a favorite watch list miner for me since you mentioned it and I finally hopped in this past Friday after much delay and DD. Their news release on Friday before the markets closed and the NYSE listing tomorrow hopefully will help that one get to the level it should be trading at. You truly are a great asset to this community and it shines through in your postings by way of the rationale and quality they contain, us regulars look forward to you chiming in when you do. Keep up the good work boss.

    @ vamoose,
    I labeled you as a troll when you first started posting here and tended to ignore your posts. Seeing my train of though fall in line with yours tonight has me wondering if maybe I drank to much today, but you obviously are aware of the fundamentals and the corruption taking place by those who are supposed to be looking out for us. Gotta give you respect there.

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  4. A shout out to Mama Ferg!! :]

    Chin Music,
    Thank you again for all the info this weekend. ..I am still back over in the old threads digesting everything. ...and johnboatcat I saw the post from you and the alcat link.. Thanks so much. ..This is such a great community of caring & sharing folks. I genuinely appreciate all the goodwill and willing helpfulness.

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  5. Scottj,
    Thank you.. ..YOU are a son that a mother can be proud of ;) ...And I'm sure that your mom feels that way. I hope you had a great day remembering your dear mom and sharing time with her in what ever way you were able. ;)

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  6. Don't beat yourself up any more. I think you've done a great job. You called everything up and down correctly about 80%-90% correct. Not bad for a "Turd". I think average folks tend to forget that all these "Elites" have nothing in their lives but money and power. It's who they are as people, how the define themselves. That is very sad for them. Money is nothing but a tool for me. Of course I always want more tools LOL.
    I think you are right we have a week of ups and downs. This reminds me a lot more of Poker and not Chess. Play good fundamentals, stay calm, disciplined and focused. Remember you can do everything right and lose, do everything wrong and win. But in the long run good play will win

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  7. Chin Music - Thanks for all the good info. You spent the time and made a great case. Very well done. Thanks. I've ordered the books and will consider all.

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  8. I put around 12,000 dollars in this morning. Like I said before here in China we are like sharks lurking waiting for that opportunity. It's here!

    I got another 7,000 dollars ready to jump if it goes down to 33-30 level. All my soldiers are ready to jump in too.

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  9. Happy Mother's Day Mama Ferg!

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  10. What Randy Flagg said. Get this dip and if a better one occurs, get that one too.

    I bought what I could last week. A piddling, trifling amount really but I am content.

    Good stuff Turd.

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  11. Speaking of Xty, did she post something last week about taking a break from posting? Her sudden absense this weekend has me curious, hope everything is well on her side of the rainbow.

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  12. Just read over at ZH that the Perth Mint is out of 100oz bars for the first time ever. Seems the same thing that happened in 2008 is starting to go on now. If prices keep dropping there will soon be shortages of physical everywhere.

    Bay of Pigs

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  13. You're my favorite turd, Turd. I shit you not.

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  14. Looks like they're trying real hard to keep it under $36. What is it about that number?

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  15. Happy Mother's Day to all the wonderful mothers in our lives. Mine especially. Love you Mom!!

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  16. (referencing the last thread)

    Vamoose, I don't quite understand your comments on CEF (central fund). I have not heard any rumors of CEF not having anything but real physical metal. Where are these rumors/theories coming from that try to account for the 8% below NAV value on CEF? Sorry, but sometimes you're not easy to follow.

    And thanks in advance for not writing about your Blythe fantasies.

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  17. bay,

    Perth Mint, April 21:

    "The Perth Mint Refinery is reorganising and expanding its small silver bar manufacturing plant.

    Work is progressing on schedule and we expect the new facility to come online during July.

    Unfortunately, the switch-over means there will be a temporary reduction in our silver bar manufacturing capacity. As a result, it is likely there will be periodic stock-outs on www.perthmintbullion.com and in The Perth Mint Shop.

    Restricted silver bar production in the next few months relates exclusively to the installation of new plant. Despite some comments, there is no shortage of silver affecting The Perth Mint."

    They mainly sell 10oz, 20oz, 1kg and 100oz bars online. These were all unavailable last week. 1kg bars were available, but have just sold out some time over the last hour.

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  18. Anyone do a recent silver inventory check on APMEX? Curious to see what thir numbers look like now compared to last week.

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  19. Remember the old stories about >$36 being the point at some JPM derivative contracts were going to start losing at 4x (or was it 5x or 6x) for every 1c move up in silver price? Well, $36 seems to be resistance again, at least for now.

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  20. Justin,

    Would have been nice if someone had been able to make it into a spreadsheet.. probably too late now.

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  21. There is a much bigger trend in focus beyond moving averages and RSI. Our analysis here is good, but rather limited when putting all of the long term factors into light. Martin Armstrong, while at Princeton, modeled some of the best research technical analysts could follow so PLEASE read his silver report...essentially its an algo model of the financial money flows trying to map out cycle points for the metals...if one person on this board can take what I took when someone introduced me to Armstrong's work I will feel good about the 30seconds of my life used typing this message http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/The%20Silver%20Crash%20of%202011%2005-06-2011.pdf

    don't be dissuaded by the title Armstrong is a metals bull in this cycle

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  22. Vamoose (from last thread)

    I definitely agree the advent of PSLV was somewhat of a trigger in the price of silver as people used Eric Sprotts statements to claim there was a silver shortage.

    I don't agree though that PSLV itself was a confirmation that there is a shortage of physical silver. I regard this argument in the same light as those who claim there is a shortage in silver by way of checking dealer inventory such as local coin shops. It's a irrational argument.

    Dealers are nothing more than small businesses with limited cash flows and operating lines of credit that were based on normal supply/demand.

    We have witnessed a large increase in retail demand in a very short amount of time. These small businesses were not prepared for increased demand in terms of inventory kept on hand and in terms of financing that would be required in order to purchase more inventory to accomodate increased demand. They will no doubt increase their inventory over time to accomodate the new reality but these changes to business model take time to occur. Banks do not provide additional financing without financial statements confirming an increase in sales. Dealer shortages do not mean there are shortages in silver, just that the dealer doesn't carry enough inventory to satisfy local demand. I say this as a person experienced in overseeing a large dealer network in all aspects of business operation including down to local financing of business operation.

    Now when the mines themselves start taking weeks/months to deliver to the dealers due to a backlog of orders (ie. great panther silver) then that would be a red flag to me.

    Going back to PSLV, I only mention the above because PSLV purchased an extremely large chunk of silver in bar format and Sprott did indeed say it took a few months to deliver and the bars were brand new in some cases. I also take this with a grain of salt as the order was an exceptionally large order that would not likely be sitting around in a miners inventory in "bar format". It does not necessarilly mean the mines are backordered or low on silver, it may just mean that quantity is not yet refined into the form needed for delivery to the Canadian mint.

    I'm going to have to think about this PSLV premium a little more. I'm not sure I buy the argument that JPM has driven up the premium to stop Eric from a follow up offering.


    Off the top of my head, Sprott hedge funds own what was the number? 45% of PSLV was it?... Is the amount they own higher than the outstanding offering? If it is than that argument wouldn't make sense as Sprott can simply sill those shares (leaving the physical in PSLV) and take the money and reinvest completely in more physical. His recent interview sums up that is what he is doing. I'm just not so sure that JPM is involved in keping the PSLV premium high...

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  23. mc2560s - Please don't, please don't try any of that colloidal silver! Obviously you are blue enough already.

    Vamoose - Your Mother loves you, and we do to. I understand your message completely. Thank you.

    Ginger - It works.

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  24. The Cartel can create an infinite amount of paper silver, but are extremely limited by the physical. If I was the Cartel and I needed to minimize the amount of physical the world would buy I would let the price start to gradually rise all they way back up to $48. That would bring more public sellers back in, maybe another drop there and then boom $50 is left in the dust.
    With the last (of recently announced anyway) of the margin hikes happening tomorrow how many dollars are waiting on the sidelines waiting to get in at a lower price. If the lower price doesn't come, they'll wait and watch the price move gradually up thinking that it has got to reverse at some point.
    I'm very interested to see if the big banks covered more of their short position over the last week. They covered 25% of it (I believe) on the move up to $50. I would guess they covered a massive amount of it last week and probably tomorrow.
    Just a thought. Who knows for sure hey.

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  25. don't worry I won't drink it.

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  26. Ginger or Chin Music-- I am attempting to find the names of the couple books Chin Music suggested about health...can you please tell me what they were?? Thanks!

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  27. Shhh... don't scare it away...

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  28. If they bumped the price back down below $36 to short cover as I previously suspected once we hit that level and stopped there given previous speculation in $36, and if JP Morgan is as short as claimed to be, it seems that the price would have to start moving back up once the final margin hike is in play. So far I haven't seen anything that even remotely looks like short covering, but the price is still moving up since the sell-off bottom.

    I'm guessing that the majority of the Monday margin hike was priced in on Friday based on tonight's action so far. The POSX at -.5 right now is sure to help the metals a little bit too. If short covering is going to happen it will more than likely be during the day or just after the U.S. markets close and an EE attack will probably happen before then, they've been on the sideline lately while the CME was rasing margins. I wouldn't put it past them to give us one more FUTF before short covering.

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  29. @Justin:

    49865 - 2011 SE (down from about 70000 @ peak last week)
    38898 - 2011 Maple Leafs (down from about 47000 @ peak last week)

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  30. I like this hourly Siver chart not that it matters. I dub it the marching ants formation.

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  31. mc2560 - I am glad to hear that you don't drink it. More on the earth for those of us that understand and are not afraid of it. I do happen to use colloidal silver frequently in the manner it should be used, and prepared in the manner it should be prepared. I assure you that the only things blue on me are the eyes I was born with.
    Get your facts straight my friend.

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  32. The problem with seeing APMEX numbers is that we don't know where their inventory is coming FROM (ie, did they just receive a shipment from the mint, or did customers sell?)

    I check on a daily basis and what I see is the following:

    A steady decline..... followed by an occasional large jump up (sometimes 50000 ounces). It is my *guess* that the steady decline is customers buying and the large jumps up is the mints providing more inventory.

    I do not keep track of it on paper, but I do eye-ball it regularly - just for my own curiosity.

    I do remember times when APMEX had more than 120000 ASE's. Not any more...

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  33. Silver. OMG I mispelled it. My name should me stricken from every stone and obelisk.

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  34. reefman, you da man! Ever since seeing the APMEX inventory last Sunday night during the start of the smack down, I was shocked to see how much silver had been depleted from their inventory in just the 24 hours after that, completely dismissing the drop in spot price and paper shares. Seeing the numbers randomly posted throughout the week and now seeing the tally compared to last week, it appears that demand in physical hasn't been budged while paper shares were sold en mass. Combine that with the US Mint halting sales on ASE's and now even miners that sell bullion but are suspiciously low on inventory or out due to "other issues", it has me wondering even more about the shortage rumors. It looks like miners can't pull it out of the ground fast enough, yet their share prices remain flat overall while operating as if silver were still valued at under $10 ounce? The lagging of the miners is frustrating, I can't see how they won't eventually start to rise to fair market value levels, even if silver drops all the way to $20/ounce they still have room to grow. If we truly are at a bottom now, the miners will start to show it now that we've had a massive correction if this is the bottom.

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  35. 2011 Silver Eagles at APMEX were due 5/13, now delayed to 5/31.

    Bars are still plentiful, but most people are grabbing coins, not bars.

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  36. blue skin is not bad if thats the only side effect. way cooler than a tattoo! you should shave your head and do intel commercials.

    I'm happy we arent seeing a selloff from the coming margin hikes like last week. whew! It would appear the new hikes are already priced in.

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  37. erg

    There is no greater irony than misspelling misspelled.

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  38. erg,
    You also misspelled 'be' too. :D ....I'm just teasing you. No biggie.

    I'm the worstest spellar in teh wohle wied wurld. :D

    (It was just funny because your post apologizing for the misspellings had more misspellings than the original post. LOL:D ...Again, just laughing with you...not at you;)

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  39. does anyone else watch the market depth? It seems that when the beatdown is in effect I see blocks of 25 contract at a time coming down the line to sell. I'm wondering if some monkey somewhere in the deathstar just sets his default sell field to 25 and then just starts clicking as fast as they can.

    The wierd thing I've seen is sometimes there will be orders of 25 contracts to buy at a time coming in.

    I watch the depth on the lind-waldo interface and could very well be misreading or misunderstanding what the numbers mean, which is why I wanted to see if anyone else is doing the same.

    I kinda want to put in an order with those big blocks when they come through.

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  40. Maybe a little off topic...But

    if the Hedgies in commodities would come in and help protect silver a little more, they wouldn't have lost so much last week either? You'd think at least oil would?

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  41. I mean that just the losses last week for oil probably were bigger then the entire silver market?

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  42. @Klaverius

    Rui,

    Do you not think that the US, the largest holder of gold in the world, will not deploy it at some future date to either (1) eliminate dollar debt or (2) back a new currency? I think this is inevitable. The demise of the US is greatly exaggerated.


    We will reform and go back to a hard currency system and prosper from there but we have lots of rust to work off. Having the biggest stockpile of gold is good but if we don't have a balance between production and consumption in our economy we'd run out of the gold at the end.

    70% of the current GDP comes from consumption, and that's crazy. When a nation always consumes more than it produces it has a perennial debt problem. No matter how great a nation is it is unable to compete if it fails to make ends meet.

    We need to lower tax so that it's worth starting business in US again. We need major cut on all government spending from Military industrial complex to welfare to pension fund and so on in order for money to stay in the private sectors to grow jobs.

    You can see there are lots of hurdles to go through. I'll say the biggest hurdle is probably the mental one - the entitlement mentality. With Dollars being the reserve currency for so long we've been getting everything easy. When people get it too easy for too long they develop a spoiled-kid kinda mentality.

    If you cut their welfare benefit over the budget issue they are gonna fight you, which makes this reform hard. They will first fight you, then they get despaired when the reality hits them, then they realize you are right, and at the end they are willing to reform.

    I think it could take 10-15 years for this thing to run through so people of this generation and the next will go through this uncomfortable transition period I'm afraid.

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  43. I would say that gold is leading silver. Just roaring through that 1500 mark after steady consolidation in the 5 minute chart, looks pretty. Should help give strength to silver as it shakes off its slump.

    Remember, silver just had a 29% knockdown, it doesn't need to recover super quick. There is a good chance we get some downwards volatility as we reclimb prices we were tackling just 3 weeks ago... I would imagine at some point, the market may decide to just go back to where it was before the margin jacks. What that price level is, I do not know, but it will be interesting to see what happens when we approach $50 again. I am assuming this is going to happen in the next 2-4 weeks no? I mean we have QEII ending on June 11th(?)... something has to give soon. Do we jet towards triple digits on a giant move or a long grind. I am expecting some "parabolic" days... with a lot of mini-crashes, almost self-perpetuated by the market.

    Just some thoughts.

    Something big is definitely coming, I am assuming it means much higher prices for silver and gold (and the mining shares start to launch).

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  44. JUstin and Reefman....over at CMI, Bill Haynes reported on the KWN metals wrap that his vaults are full, due to very heavy retail selling (selling has been going on for 3 months, but it really zoomed last week. Most everything is available, except Eagles which are out a few weeks (I think he gave the time frame)

    That may be happening all over re: your question "where is the silver coming from."

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  45. I told you guys in a previous post that there was no such thing as a silver shortage and that eric sprott is just a smart business man charging people a premium for nothing... there is always silver around... once price goes up it comes out of the woodwork.. .all those assholes at CMI and the weekly metals wrap are nothing but a bunch of pumpers who promote their own shit... I dont believe any one of them because they have their own agenda....

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  46. Ginger, Irene, and all the ladies out there-
    Happy Mother's Day...

    And, to TF - please give the Mrs. TF and your mother a big hug on behalf the Jedi padawans on the West Coast. :)
    ________________________
    and now, back to the precious metals trading behavior from a non-trader and buy-hold type of investor...

    NetDania does not show USDX trading data at this time. The chart is blank from end of trading on May 7 due to weekend.

    When you overlay the USDX charts for the past week and the silver price, it is patently obvious to me that there is a direct correlation between Fed Reserve intervention on the USD and the price of commodities.

    My view tonight is that FRB/FOMC intervention is capping commodity pricing on the paper markets, but the physical cost of the gasoline, sugar, oil, OJ, etc etc is decoupling from the futures trading price.

    If you are a buy-hold type of investor and you got smacked down hard in the last 10 days, we have Ben to thank for that. We also have Ben to thank for the ability to get ROI > 10% per quarter on PM physical for the past 18 months. So, it's a two-edged sword. I'm cussing at the SOB's at FOMC/FRB for the past ten days. But, I also was quietly thinking that we should not be so critical of the monetary policy given the FRN/USD returns over the past 18 months.

    I suppose this is the quandry many of the Turdville residents feel.

    I want to buy my mom some flowers. But, this year's flower prices were quite a bit higher than last year for nice bouquets.

    When I look at the chart for the 1978-1983 time frame, I see gold behaving with a blow out top and then some significant volatility over the next few months after the blow out.

    The real question here is how much selling the major funds will need to do tomorrow morning for SLV and GLD ETF position and how much buying will the big guns be uncorking to get into new position for the upwards ride.

    My guess is that this is positioning by TPTB.

    They already know the QE3 is coming.

    They blew down the peasants' position and are now picking up the pieces as they claim to be "helping" to stabilize the situation.

    There was massive buying in the coin stores across this region and significant shortage of inventory.

    I called one guy on Friday and he literally told me not to show up because the wait out the door was 1 hour long.

    We're way beyong BTFD behavior here. We're seeing the peasants riot for the silver in order to get into position for the coming upswing.

    There is still no supply in this area.

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  47. Terri5125

    Go here Derby Day and scroll to the 10:12am time stamp. That is part 3 and a link to the first book is there. Part 4 is just below and the second book is linked there.

    Ginger & Larry

    Thank you for the kind words. Larry after digesting some of the material let me know your thoughts. Thanks

    Goodnight all

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  48. Video I just watched:

    Lets debunk the conspiracy about silver inventory available
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-M8lezBEBAs

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  49. @Insight,

    Thanks! Perhaps some of it is the weak hands getting flushed out then. Good info.

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  50. To "ILUVPMS" and "Insight"-

    Bill Haynes on KWN was noting the "frothy" market two weeks ago.

    ILUVPMS please go back into Eric King's broadcast page and download the KWN weekly metals wraps for late April. When I reviewed the KWN Weekly Metals Wraps over the last three weeks, I was pleased to hear Haynes noting the behavior being "frothy" and suggesting that some issues were appearing in the paper pricing.

    Dan Norcini's interview on this week's KWN Weekly Metals Wrap is wonderful for me to listen to. This guy's interviews saved my family's neck over the past 2 years.

    While the local politicians sold our town out and destroyed hundreds of families in this area, I was able to ride it out due to jsmineset and Trader Dan just broadcasting quality information to the net.

    Paper barons should not trifle with the fundamental quality of gold and silver.

    I agree with Jim Sinclair about Silver, and I disagree with others here that silver is a marker of money. Silver has always been a monetary element, but it is not gold.

    Gold is clearly the historic choice of most kingdoms as an instrument of richness over thousands of years.

    One can not trifle with principles cast over millenia despite believing that the newest paper of choice is an indicator of wealth.

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  51. apart from RSI 20-30 ... what do you guys consider the best buying signals for silver ?

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  52. @reefman - I'm sorry but I just looked at the "debunk the conspiracy" video for several minutes. I can not really understand what this gentleman's position is. But, my attention span is short. If I don't see a point in the first 60 seconds, the "stop" button gets punched.

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  53. Turd,

    Can you thro some light on Martin Armstrong's prediction of primary support at $23.50-$26.50 and critical support at $28.

    I am becoming very critical of his last two publications. I am not finding any comfort in his predictions, rather he is instilling fear among many of us.

    I am beginning to feel that he has been brainwashed/bought over during his prison term.

    Except Turd most of the Gold/Silver analysts are glorified reporters. And that's why Turd's bottom is famous rather than Trader Dan's or Martin Armstrong's.

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  54. The Netdania chart has picked up the POSX again. No data until midnight which leaves a gap down.

    74.6 and climbing as I write

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  55. One more observation.

    Armstrong just does't talk anything about Gold in the publication. Both metals are almost married to each other. How can one separate predicting Gold and talk about Silver touching bottom at $23.50.Where Gold is going to be at that time ? Too many question haunting after reading Armstrong.

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  56. @HappyIn

    I am observing INR and it appreciated from 44.7840 to 44.6700. So, I can say for sure that POSX would be gap down. I am seeing 74.60 constant line, no data.

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  57. Algorithms running the show here it seems. The short term double bottom off of ~$35.94 bodes well for the possibility of a run at 37 tonight. This would seem to suggest the algorithms are in buy mode and were just filling the gaps. If you look at the live futures chart here, a lot of green all over, except of course the USD and a couple outliers.

    Good night, expecting a big day tomorrow in the stocks, especially with Revett being promoted to the AMEX finally tomorrow at open. I read around that there may be a line of institutional investors wanting to jump in Revett, which were unable to until it reached a major exchange in the US. Rock Creek is not valued AT ALL in this stock value, and hopefully we can get a little speculation on this stock with the current legal advancements Montana is allowing. As it seems 2012 could have big news for Revett, but time will have to play out...

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  58. @Stevy - I spent alot of time with various friends over the past week in order to see where people's heads are at on this exact question (what are the buy and sell signals).

    Your buy/sell signal of choice appears to be dependent upon your position in the metals at current.

    People who had significant inventory (i.e. greater than 1000 ounces of physical silver) were willing to part with some in order to cover cost. These people are rotating physical silver and converting to FRNs in order to buy other assets. They are annoyed by IRS capital gains tax requirements but are willing to absorb some of the sales taxes in order to convert to other positions in real estate or other productive assets.

    Guys who were late to the silver table are buying because they're trying to get into sufficient position in physical to the point where they are comfortable. The level of comfort appears to vary according to their level of confidence in the US government and federal reserve bank. Guys who were more pessimistic were more willing to buy physical. Guys who were confident in the Federal Reserve Bank were not as interested in physical.

    If you are interested in the paper and are trading primarily paper, then you need to watch a video that discusses a retrospective analysis of margin hikes/movement at CME on silver.

    If you are buying physical silver, you also need to watch this video and review the analysis the guy discusses. The key is around 10 - 11 minutes into the video where he is looking at the percentage changes in margin requirements on silver futures contracts.

    I'd like to point people to this technical analysis video by a guy named BrotherJohnF on YouTube.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPKEy3rTA_g


    This gentleman's video is slow to develop over the first few minutes, but the analysis is striking at the end.

    I am of the opinion that we need to be very careful jumping into this silver market based upon the margin hike percentages.

    Over the past 7 years of silver futures contract trading, it is clear that the CME margin requirements change in response to the market dynamics.

    The hike tomorrow is the largest percentage hike since late 2008 and early 2009. The CME margin changes are NOT unique behavior, but the percentage changes are interesting to observe.

    The percentage change suggests that the financial system is destabilized and that a wall is being erected to prevent some parties from entering the silver market as a hedge against the destabilization.

    Essentially, my view is that the Sith/EE are not done rampaging on the people.

    We should be cautious if you are risking more than 10% of liquidity.

    I agree with "Evil" at this juncture because "Evil" is posting reality.

    The indicators suggest that something more significant is a foot and we are not privy to it.

    The political machinations are moving in the USA even prior to the election year. The positioning is attempting to control the downspiral of the US middle class and is reaping the profit by pilfering, plundering, and destroying the liquidity of the middle class.

    The attempt on this blog to provide a life jacket and a preserver to people is laudable.

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  59. To Turdle GG or other Asian traders -
    What markets are you trading silver and gold on?
    Do you have URL's for those markets or the brokerages that handle trading in those markets?

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  60. StrongSideJedi - appreciate your answer

    @everyone .... checkout the support the 150 day moving average has given to gold on the one day chart - very interesting

    still researching more buy signals for silver - be great to put our minds together

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  61. @StrongSide


    This is in India.
    Try looking at http://www.mcxindia.com/

    There are many brokers who would give a platform for trading on MCX.

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  62. One last comment tonight, I just reviewed the TA at stockcharts.com for "$SILVER".

    I observe the following on a 3 year silver chart.
    1. Silver RSI is moving off bottom.
    2. Silver MACD is corrected also, but is the most oversold indicator in 3 years.
    3. Silver Full Stochastics chart shows that on the biggest "corrections" in the last 3 years that silver has done one pump fake upwards (Calvin bounce?), settled back down, and then began moving upwards hard.

    I am guessing the following:
    1. Silver is a buy
    2. You will have 48 hours to buy into the paper before the uptrend resumes and the pricing action in paper will pump fake upwards and then may settle downwards into the <35 range prior to beginning to move up hard.
    3. You will see indicators light up in Asian trading hours this week.

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  63. looks like they've kicked the greece can down the road a bit, so dollar down, stocks and commodities up.

    safe to buy stocks and commodities until the next euro (or china?) crisis.

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  64. SSJ,

    I trade XAG/USD, XAG/EUR, XAG/JPY, XAG/AUD, all through the FX markets. I have two brokers, both based in Australia. Both of them use the SaxoBank platform:

    http://www.saxobank.com/en/pages/default.aspx

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  65. SSJ,
    here's the Saxobank page for XAG and XAU:

    http://www.saxobank.com/en/trading-products/forex/gold-silver/pages/gold-silver-trading.aspx

    They are a Danish bank. Seems like brokers in different countries use their systems on a "whitelabel" basis. Not sure if you can use them where you live.

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  66. ILUVPMS: Your post is incorrect. There is a shortage, as evidenced by the rise in prices in the past year.

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  67. we just lost our silver price gains for today. very swift reversal from $36.30 to $35.66. Coincided with a little uptick in POSX

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  68. Silver is money, always has been. Gold is for kings and nations, silver for the common man. I don't understand why some people think it has a monetary component, but is not money.

    It has always been money, from the payment to Judas of 30 pieces of silver to betray Jesus, The English Pound Sterling and Silver standard, the American Silver dollar. Only recently has it "acquired" an industrial use.

    This has confused people. Wake up! Gold is fine, but silver is really what you will need with the coming economic collapse.

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  69. Turdle GG -
    big thank you on the lead to SaxoBank.
    Those trading platforms look very interesting.

    @Stevy- The youtube video I referenced above is produced by a guy with alot of technical analysis skill.

    @Jack - "ILUVPMS" must be a guy because I know of no females who would select "I LUV PMS" as a name. LOL


    Here's an interesting observation:
    I went to Bank of China's website and pulled their silver "buy" and "sell" prices. When I adjusted for the Hong Kong Dollar to US Dollar conversion rates, I ended up with a buy of $38.90 and sell of $39.85. There is a 2.85% spread. More importantly, they are buying silver for more than the local coin shops in the USA by nearly 10%.

    Either the local coin shops need to stop scalping the US consumers or the coin shops in the USA are part of the silver inventory shortage.

    The US coin shops are selling at 10-15% premium while China is buying at that same premium. What gives? The US coin shops are only willing to buy at $0.50 premium. Are you kidding me?

    The US coin shops are helping Comex by not raising the buy price in the USA. More over, the premium on the sell price being up at >10% over Comex is creating a secondary issue.

    Any HOS (holders of size) would be better off selling to China than in the USA.

    That's a national security issue, in case you idiots in Chicago and New York City can't tell.

    Either fix the Comex prices or the coin shops better start decoupling from Comex on BOTH sides of the transaction. China has already decoupled!

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  70. Daily indicators starting look positive. Tomorrow fun will begin I guess.

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  71. I did happen to liquidate about 2 kgs of silver into gold when the ratio was about 1:33 and now it is about 1:42. I did liquidate another 2 kgs($47) into fiat currency as I had to pay of a part of my debt.

    I still do hold a significant percentage of my savings in physical Gold and silver. Rising PM prices does not make me either happy or sad for irrespective of prices I need to give a significant portion of my wealth to my children in Gold or Silver jewellery(Indian custom).

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  72. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  73. wow!!! Some one is confused June 12 or 13

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  74. @Kumanari,

    are you referring to Armstrong ;)

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  75. 36. Using 1/4 of my gambling account. Maybe it was too early. But I have enough dry powder left.

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  76. Up and running folks, 37 buckaroos......come on!

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  77. Hi Turd

    Wishing Mama Ferg a belated happy birthday, hope you folks had a great day yesterday. It's 9:00am here in London, UK. SLV is up from its open yesterday, now trading at $36.60, and GLD is at $1506.00. This sure is a sight for sore eyes, after last week's activities.

    Yet still, I'm going to wait til New York opens at 1:30pm UK time, to see what these monkeys on Wall Street have planned for today, before I take a position. Like you've repeatedly said in earlier posts, with all the best technical analysis done, Darth Vader and the Empire can strike back just when we least expect it.

    I'm quite sure the death star will implode on them one day, as long as people keep on buying physical GLD and SLV, and the markets continue going higher.

    Hopefully, the dark side of the force will leave the market and people alone for a while to recover. I guess we'll see what evil plans they've concocted later today.

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  78. A little perspective: the world's mines produce about 700mio ounces a year and total annual supply amounts to 1000mio oz. If only 100 million people purchased 10oz of physical silver per year, all of that would be gone.

    And mind you, 100 million people is probably 5 or 10% of the world's population that could easily afford using 300 or 500$ of their money for investment purposes each year.

    Also factor in that commercial/industrial users already use 80% of annual silver supply, so there's not even much left for investment purposes.

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  79. Martin Armstrong:
    http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/The%20Silver%20Crash%20of%202011%2005-06-2011.pdf

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  80. I am looking at buying my first physical following the recent drop (having traded paper for a few years) but I still can't quite bring myself to buy silver when it is in its second historic spike, and still way over the long term average. I feel different about gold.

    I'm suprised I feel like this now as I do a lot of reading and I know these are different times. Are you all comfortable buying physical because the market is now so global, with China etc accumulating, QE and raw demand from the public?

    20% tax on silver in the UK as well. What a pain :)

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  81. Oops sorry Turd, please excuse my previous post on Mama Ferg's birthday. Wishing Mama Ferg a happy mother's day, hope you all had a lovely day yesterday.

    Us Turdites are grateful and blessed, for Mama Ferg to have a son like you. I'm pretty sure that's where you get your fantastic qualities and concern for your fellow human beings from. Mama Ferg should be proud to have a son like you, your the Robin Hood of financial markets :-). Using and analyzing info from these evil Barons and Lords and sharing it with the ordinary man, to enrich our lives in a positive way.

    I'm a regular on your blog, I joined only a few weeks ago, and since joining your expert advice and guidance has added a few more strings to my bow. My account has gone from Zero to Hero :-), great work Turd or should I say Robin LOL.

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  82. Daniel,

    If you order on www.coininvestdirect and can get to frankfurt to pick up the physical, you only have to pay German VAT (7%).

    An option to avoid the 20% uk vat

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  83. "If you order on www.coininvestdirect and can get to frankfurt to pick up the physical, you only have to pay German VAT (7%)."

    Will there by any problems with customs, moving large quantities of silver through to the UK, via france or belgium?

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  84. Thanks for that, I spotted them last night and they were one of two places that surprised me with the prices (bullionuk.com being the other). My friends pop to and fro Germany so I am considering it. I'm just suprised that UK customs wouldn't say 'we don't care where you paid vat, you need to pay 20% here!'

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  85. Michael,

    I do not know enough about UK Customs, but I assume that once VAT has been paid in the EU country of purchase, then there is not much HM can do to steal any more cash from you.

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  86. Hello fellow UK Turdanista`s - 20% sucks so
    i hunt at auctions , advertise locally for coins
    etc and get close to scrap prices.

    For everyone - here is a great tech analysis presented on UK CNBC this morning to their credit. Worth it for the Churchill bullish quote
    alone. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=1914944676

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  87. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  88. @Karim From your lips to the ears of god.
    I agree.. initially it will toss a wrench into the current system but how long will it take for either regional conflicts or "the war on the middle class" to take presidence?

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  89. vamoose said... "...she kind of reminds me of my mother, abit of a severe face that may in fact be it,i have considered letting her spank me..."

    Let me guess.. a repressed Brit? SMH

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  90. Greetings Turd, Japans Got your back, we will like it a whole lot better in a couple weeks when Hong Kong exchange comes on Line and we dont have to deal with the New york Crimex crowd anymore

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  91. $37/toz spot.

    I'm off to search for a silver dealer in the City of London. Have a great day everyone.

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  92. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  93. Is there going to be a dip soon? and how deep do you think its going to be?

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  94. Also, sorry about all these deleted posts. My customised browser doesn't seem to agree with the comment upload system here.

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  95. Sinclair is on record that Armstrong is right about the price but wrong about the timing. Sinclair believes that the low predicted by Armstrong in June is happening now for gold and I'm assuming that's true for silver as well.

    http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/05/05/the-foundation-for-gold-at-5000/

    Armstrong's latest letter had me scratching my head a bit.

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  96. UK Turd..I saw that this am, great start to a Monday I thought

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  97. I'm encouraged by the action so far, waiting to see what usual pre-COMEX beatdown looks like. I'll be more bullish if it doesn't come (like Friday).

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  98. Good job for anyone who bought around 35 or even below. I hope noone is buying this current breakout though.

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  99. @Watcher - Sinclair said "Armstrong was right and wrong. He looked for a reaction in gold at a time it would not happen, to a price that simply did not and will not occur"

    I think it means that he was wrong at the price ... however if the gold corrects into June as predicted by Armstrong ... (correction can be sideways i.e. correction against time or a minor one to 1435) then it provides foundational base for a move to 5000 into 2015 ... Relax!

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  100. I bought an investment quantity of silver via BV at $34/toz within a 30 second window in which the bots temporarily drove prices below spot.

    I just want to add a nominal quantity of physical silver to top the purchase now, but having trouble finding a dealer here.

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  101. Woohoo just woke up to plus $2.50!! Friday buy in is going to pay off!

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  102. It seems Asian and Australian turdities are certainly not slacking around. 1 hour till COMEX opens and silver blew through both 36.50$, 37$ and is close to blow through 38$ as well. Huh.

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  103. What's gonna happen when COMEX opens you think?

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  104. Well, hands off to the EE again: First they shake all the margin users out with this immense smackdown, then they quickly drive it back up again to leave us without entry points. Already put in about 30% of my ammo at the end of last week at an average of 35,1, but still hoping for it to come down again though so I can add more the coming days... otherwise I'll miss out on a lot of gains.

    Final OI numbers from Friday still not out as well. They're leaving us guessing and we can do nothing about it.

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  105. 'morning everybody.....pretty chart this morning!!!

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  106. Some say silver bounce back to 49 quicker than you think. That's a sign of artificial drop down.

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  107. "What's gonna happen when COMEX opens you think?"

    I'm hoping to time some extra coin purchases for any downside action around then.

    "a repressed Brit?" - Us Brits, repressed?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=644Ar2ZEp4A&feature=related

    ;)

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  108. Lol, almost 4$ backwardation right now to the farthest out contract: http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/Silver_Futures/SIK11

    SLV better drop a few hundred tonnes of silver on the market again today and tomorrow to cool things off ;).

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  109. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  110. Both Gold and Silver look real Purty this morning, now lets see them hold.

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  111. Well, if any of this can stick we aught to be nice and green on the miners. Look at oil too.

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  112. $37.32 on my screen, will remain skeptical of this bounce up. Markus, waiting as well; can't help but think this is a temporary bounce only to reverse for a 2nd May surprise...

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  113. If it were a more or less natural market, then a beatdown like last week would not normally just bounce straight back up again. Rallies would get sold both by people who bought the bounce to scalp a little and get back out, and also sold by people who missed a chance to sell last week.

    If it's a purely manipulated market, then it also would be unlikely to just bounce straight back up again. The forces of darkness would suck in the brave and the bold with a bounce and then decapitate them, plus induce a second round of panic on those that didn't quite get there last week.

    Either way, it's hard to envision a bounce straight back up to the 40's. Not that it can't happen. In silver, ANYTHING can happen.

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  114. I just had a thought. The posting about the different scenarios about the equities sellof this week, and then that it was moderating and going to be a sellof but not as dramatic, what if those scenarios are being run not to say what is going to actually happen, but to give the plunge protection team the information so they know what to prevent from happening?

    In order words maybe the computer models are so that the Fed knows how much it has to pump up the market to prevent what would be the normal market reaction?

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  115. agreed Eric, anything can happen & 'they' can generally set the spot price where 'they' want it. One of the major problems is 'they' have all the information - #'s/$'s short/long in any of the paper trades, futures contracts, etc. 'They' also, imo, have access to all the speculators, large or short, accounts with their brokers/banks and thus know how much dry powder the collective has in the accounts. With access to top level info, it would follow that 'they' would take the opposing trades & decapitate as many as 'they' can, hoping they never play again or become less and less significant.

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  116. Caramel,

    "they" probably know the exact effcet of any (5) margin hikes too.

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  117. caramel, you're a smart guy. Here a graph (courtesy of gotgoldreport.com) that backs up your theory - the current OI numbers, despite the historic silver highs, are nowhere near their peaks:

    http://666kb.com/i/btc5l54yc1zua0gm0.jpg

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  118. Nice rally, huh?

    Silver needs to stay around $37 for a while...at least for another hour or so. If it does, it can then move back up toward 38+.

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  119. Good Morning Gentlemen! :)

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  120. HUI weak today despite rising PM prices.. a sign of things to come for the rest of the week?

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  121. Go to Eric King's blog and read what James Turk is saying:

    James Turk - “Silver Will Hit New Highs in a Matter of Weeks”

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/9_James_Turk_-_Silver_Will_Hit_New_Highs_in_a_Matter_of_Weeks.html

    (Great chart there as well.)

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  122. Looking at Turk's chart, it looks like the breakout above the long trend channel occured @ around $18. It ran up around $32 to $50, so a retracement of 50% from $50 takes us back to the $34 level, which we hit rather speedily. So my TA, tells me that silver is headed back up, after a possible test of $34.

    The point is that Turk's chart makes a good case for a bottom. I believe Turd also expects a pullback to test support.

    Those like myself who went all in in the physical took the latest hit with no scars, however, the loss of value in the physical was felt. Buying more physical here takes the pain away. :^)

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  123. CNBS reporting S&P downgrade of Greek debt.
    EE appears to be playing the "Euro sucks- Buy USD" card again.

    How many times do we see this card played?

    This time the announcement came at 0827 AM EST.

    What a lark.

    It's like sending a message into the locker room before the game starts?

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  124. Noob question so please bear with me.

    What is the advantage/disadvantage of silver eagles versus silver bars or some other coin?

    Thanks in advance.

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  125. Watcher, last week was a great example of why owning physical gold/silver is of a higher priority imo than trading paper. With physical, one sits & watches with the popcorn as the physical metals inevitably move up as we move forward.

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  126. Freddie, If you are buying silver as an investment bars i cheaaper (maby 5% over spot, coins is 7-8% overs spot)

    --
    I will but silver bull x4 tomorrow for 3000 sek (480 USD) maby a day later depending on what is hallening untill then

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  127. Caramel, that's one reason why my handle is 'Watcher' on this forum. :)

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  128. Freddie

    IMHO, there is no advantage in Eagles. The premiums are an outrage. But that's just me. Others will disagree.

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  129. I agree Watcher.
    Unfortunately, in this area, the coin shops are plum dry of silver bullion.
    More importantly, the coin shops are not buying at the same premium of their selling.
    This is why I have started to look towards the asian markets.
    If our own people are going to defraud us, why should I put up with their fraud?
    I'd rather risk in Asian markets than deal with stupid SLV/GLD manipulation.
    SLV is off Silver price by a several percent anyway plus the brokerage gets it's commission.

    It's becoming easier and easier for the crimex to pickpocket us.

    I don't doubt that the asian market will be any different in human psyche, but the initial plays should be very clean. If they set or allow bad precedent early, it would impact future sales.

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  130. SLW reports record production. Hopefully that'll help the miners rally a it.

    http://www.silverwheaton.com/News/PressReleases/PressReleaseDetails/default.aspx?PressReleaseId=5ebcdafb-abff-457a-a8a1-5742774847be

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  131. @Eric1 -
    I agree regarding the premiums for Silver Eagles.

    The Canadian maple leaf coinage seems more reasonable, but the idiocy of the conversation is that we're really talking about the stability of money.

    This is akin to paying for a currency swap within your own nation.

    I'd rather just pay for the bar at this point.

    Plus, what's the benefit of buying the US Mint coinage when I can not verify that Geithner's crowd is keeping their promise on the silver content percentage?

    Are we paying in temple tax currency or not?

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  132. Jedi, you have sources for questioning the silver content of SAE? has anyone opened a monster box and not find 500 .9999 Silver coins?
    -Darth

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  133. SLW misses earning expectations, though,by a pretty hefty margin.

    It's up, though. But...it all confuses me!!!!

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  134. Strongside Jedi said:

    "More importantly, the coin shops are not buying at the same premium of their selling."

    Jedi- I'm not sure I'm following your complaint- certainly you wouldn't expect the coin dealers to sell and buy at the same price?

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  135. Turd,

    Great to hear you are a horse racing fan. You might enjoy my buddy Steve Byk's daily show in sirius radio--9-12.Ironically he began a few years ago just writing a blog and offering handicapping picks. It's now turned into a 3 hour daily radio gig. I live in the Sartatoga area.If you've been up for the horse racing season you know how great it is in August. If you do make your way to 'toga it would be great to share a few adult beverages.

    http://www.thoroughbredracingradionetwork.com/

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  136. From Daniel FCB:
    Maybe it's just a hope on my part, but the chart for GRS looks like a perfect set of stairs to me:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=grs
    Expand the chart to one year and it becomes even more clear.
    Additional note: SLW missed estimates. Ouch! But it still beat last year's numbers and is up pre-market.

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  137. @Darth
    (waves hand)
    We do not know the silver content of the US mint coinage unless we subject a sample to destructive testing.
    On the other hand, the Senate has also provided legislation to permit Tim Geithner the opportunity to alter the coinage's composition.

    Silvergoldsilver (who used to post here regularly) already posted a bulletin on this legislation, which I had confirmed. I can not recall the exact resolution number, as I can not "google" the terms and locate the text. Other people here have.

    TimG. has the power to alter the composition after passage of that bill last year.

    Only Ron Paul appears to be in position to review the composition of the American Silver Eagle.

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  138. "...the physical cost of the gasoline, sugar, oil, OJ, etc etc is decoupling from the futures trading price."

    Is it my imagination, or is an ongoing $4 premium for physical Ag the beginning of a black market de-valuation of FRNs?

    At Kitco's current spot price, $37.00 really buys only .9 oz. of physical priced generally around $41/oz.

    And the current premium isn't new; Comex and others have for years been paying premiums to entice longs out of demanding delivery.

    I think we're in a $ devaluation, hiding in plain sight.

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  139. @capesquad -
    I would not expect US coin shop operators to buy/sell without a premium for profit.

    However, coin shop operators provide COMEX legitimacy by not marking to market on the physical. Sound familiar to the real estate crisis? It is identical behavior.

    The coin shop operators should be buying back coinage at Comex + 10% today.

    Please note my posting earlier last night (about 9 hours ago). The situation in Hong Kong is that the Bank of China is buying at COMEX + 10%. So, what's the point of selling silver to a US coin store when I can transfer bulk to Hong Kong and get a 10% premium?

    That premium is so high, that it becomes worth postage to mail the 1 oz. coin!

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  140. SLW - Not as much missed as deferred to next quarters.
    "Though sales lagged production, and resulted in an increase of over 700,000 payable silver equivalent ounces produced but not yet delivered by our partners, record earnings and operating cash flows were achieved in this quarter. We expect increased silver deliveries throughout 2011 to make up for the sales shortfall, and in the current environment of strong silver prices, our shareholders should benefit from increased earnings and cash flows in future quarters from these deferred silver deliveries."

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  141. Anyone buying into the rally in silver today? Looks like a short covering rally to me....

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  142. POSX looks to be rallying amid all the Euro-noise so I'm going to sit tight for a bit.

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  143. I bought physical @ 33 and will not buy more until 25.

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  144. It looks to me too JNG!

    I was about to post that silver was being left alone for the day, but the EE just got in a minute ago LOL

    BTW, Where is everybody?
    This place used to have about 5 thousand comments per post.. ?!

    Also, watch out for the POSX! It's touching 75!!!

    Turd? R U THere??

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  145. FOAGQ sold my remaining stake in the opening rise and will likely trade today.

    atlee what parameters are you liking for slow stochastic?

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  146. I sold both my XAG XAU for modest profits. Feels good to make a winning trade again. Just hate being out of silver! I do have my bars:)

    I got in Friday @34 xag, now thinking I should of maybe kept that purchase for long term but like everyone else I think a retest of 33-34 is coming. I will probably be wrong again.

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  147. Personally I would exercise caution right now WRT to physical PM purchases. Right now, I am not a buyer.

    But, then again, mush depends on where you are in your physical PM accumulation.

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  148. @ Happy
    14,3,5 with MA of 16 or 18

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  149. Jedi.

    Not that I'd sell my eagles anytime soon but what is the procedure for selling them to Hong Kong at 10% over spot?

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  150. This is a minor point, perhaps, but SLV price is once again converging with spot -- SLV is now ~$0.90 below front month contract price, whereas is was $1.10-$1.15 5-10 days ago.

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  152. It just dawn on me on re-reading Merrimann's forecast for gold and silver in his forecast book of 2011 that the recent big drastic correction in Silver could be the 111 weeks' correction per his forecast (pt 3 as below). If so, it means that we are now potentially seeing a birth of a brand new 111 weeks cycle, which should see successive impulsive movements upward from the recent low.

    The below is the extract of his forecast for gold and silver. Anyone has the similar view.

    Gold and Silver
    1. The long term cycle of gold is bullish, and not due to top out until 2017-2023, and possibly even into 2040.

    2. A 17 month cycle trough in Gold is due July-August 2011, +/- 3 mths. It may also correlate with a 34 month cycle low off the 8.5 year cycle trough that occurred in Oct 2008. That decline can be anywhere from $140-480 off the high that precedes it. But as long as Gold remains above 980-1050 support, the longer
    term bull market is intact.

    3. Silver's 111 week cycle is due before May 2011

    4. Geocosmics point to sharply higher metals' price after 2011.

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  153. Jedi, I'm holding off on my last buy of gold for now as well

    Jim Rogers seems to think this was a piddly correction and thinks there will be another hit down
    http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-05-06/news/29517110_1_jim-rogers-crude-oil-commodities


    Speaking of cycles....Ray Merriman had a computer crash, so only an abbreviated week of May 9 preview:

    Short-Term Geocosmics

    Heliocentric Mercury exited Sagittarius on the new moon of Tuesday, May 3. Gold made its new all-time high of 1577.80 on May 2, while heliocentric Mercury was still in Sagittarius. By Thursday, May 5, it was down to 1462.50. In fact, just as suspected, commodities and foreign currencies fell hard against the Dollar. As our column of last week stated, “It’s all related to heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius’ explosiveness, and the Jupiter-Uranus transit in Aries. That’s a lot of fire power fueling this bullet train of assets. But helio Mercury in Sagittarius ends this week, just as Jupiter and Mars start entering that zodiac sector when the top to those assets is due to culminate. In other words, we are nearing the end of the line. It would be wise to prepare to switch to another line before all the oxen get on board and tip the balance of this train.”

    By oxen, I was referring to the cosmic shift of planets from Aries to Taurus. The Sun moved from Aries to Taurus on April 20. Mars will do the same on May 11. On May 15, Mercury and Venus will do likewise. Only Jupiter and Uranus will be left. The weight is definitely shifting from the aggressive and speculative fire sign of Aries to the more practical and cautious earth sign of Taurus.

    At the Bradley Siderograph on Alphee's site (http://www.alpheefinance.com/),
    Gold looks to be weaker around 5/17, silver will zig zag up but be weak again around 5/25.
    SLW looks to peak around 5/17. This is all about strength, not price.

    I got off track looking at this siderograph, which was really a bad thing. I have to get back to my discipline of drawing the graphs out freehand with some key turning points. The darned thing is really pretty accurate, in spite of the fact that is the older program...
    I could have saved myself those higher buys by looking at this...sigh! But, when your 89 year old mother breaks a kneecap, time disappears for awhile!

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  154. johnbobcat...thanks for the SLW insights.....will continue to watch it, as I want to add to my already underwater position (which will then become the trading half)...LOL!

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  155. youtube arliens challenge chronicles 19:silver commodity premiums and seasonal 'trifecta' podcast. very nice video

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