Wednesday, May 25, 2011

The Empty Suits

I just wasted 5 minutes watching Bart Chilton on CNBS. Please allow me to summarize:

1) Politicians now want to delay imposing position limits until January of 2013.
2) Speculators cause prices of commodities to rise.
3) Volatility must be contained.

What an incredible farce this all is. Again, please allow me to summarize:

1) Politicians can't/won't control spending so money is printed and dollar collapses. Rather than accept blame, politicians deflect blame onto rascally, shadowy speculators.
2) Commodity markets, designed as a facility for producers to "forward" sell their products, cannot function without speculators. Just who do you think is buying when the producers are selling? Hmmm? It always takes "two to Tango".
3) Volatility must be contained. While we're at it, maybe Congress can vote to "contain" hurricanes and earthquakes, too. Ridiculous. The very nature of commodity markets is volatility. It cannot be removed or contained. You know it, I know it and they know it but that doesn't mean it's not a good talking point when you're trying to deflect attention from yourself.

The U.S. economy remains stagnant, even after all of the trillions spent purportedly to "stimulate" it. This is complete nonsense and SPIN, too. The Fed has printed and spent trillions in following their dual mandate: prop up the balance sheets of their primary dealers and provide funding for a cash-starved federal government. This will continue, for a while it may not be as overt as POMO but continue it will. As tax revenues continue to decline, where will nearly-bankrupt states and municipalities find cash? With interest rates this low, where will treasury auctions find buyers? No, the printing/creation of dollars will simply continue, whether you see it or not.

This leads us, of course, to gold. Individuals and central banks around the world are increasing their reserves. Why? It is store of value and recognized currency since the dawn of time. Investors are increasingly returning to silver as monetary "insurance", as well. This will continue. No amount of politician or bureaucrat double-speak will change these underlying fundamentals. If you have not already purchased physical metal, the question is why? If currently own metal, the question is why not buy more? If you're truly worried about the price you pay in fiat, keep reading this site and we will guide your way. Likely, the only "financial system" you know is the one that is dead and gone and not coming back. You must prepare for what is to come, the shape and scope of which even I am unsure. Keep educating yourself, however, and you will survive. Learn, trust your instincts and have faith in yourself and you will prosper.

Have a great day! TF

Led by the ever-resilient crude and surging copper (back above 410), the metals are driving away now from their resistance at 1525 and 36.50. As mentioned above gold looks clear all the way to 1540 or 1545. Silver may meet with some resistance near 38 but that won't keep it now from trading back up to the major 39.50 resistance level. Watch crude closely as a move through 101.50 will set it on a course toward 105 and this will help the metals cause in the coming days, as well.
Just a quick word about the passing of Mark Haines. I've criticized him often mainly because his on-air arrogance often rubbed me the wrong way. He was even worthy of his own turdism "FOAD". However, I was personally interviewed by him on 2 or 3 occasions and I never found him to be hostile or unprofessional. In the end, he seemed like a very nice man and I am sorry to hear of his untimely demise.


  1. Got my rally hat on. Going to let 'em run for a bit. I will be booking profits into gains. Now come on NGD, GG, TRE, and RVM.

  2. Turd,

    I'm surprised, no attacks be the EE, no waterfalls, you would think we would have a dip at some point? Turd, would you buy into this rally now? Yes or No?

  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

  4. want to know why we really went into Lybia?? well then watch this.

  5. Can't wait to hear Ted Butler's rant after this information. I'm not sure what to think, if he still has faith?


    I have updated with everyone's guesses up and until Turd posted his newest thread.

    I tried to quote all times in EST, and all times were presumed to be AM if not stated.


  7. I've been very skeptical of silver since the hammer down, relying on my own analysis more than Turd' be honest. Didn't buy the immediate dip, but waited for $34 to hold....for two weeks.

    I have to give credit to Turd here on the call - dude effin nailed it! I loaded up just a smidge under $35 this weekend, and here we sit taking out overhead resistance seemingly buy the hour.

    I've been stacking since last summer. I don't keep a score sheet on "right" or "wrong" prognostication by anyone including Turd, but man this guy is goooooood.

    Thanks for your hard work, man. Really looking forward to the new Turdie forum.

  8. JNG: I own two July $40 silver calls, the second of which I bought last Friday. When silver approaches $39.50, I intend to sell two $45 calls against them, thereby creating a "spread".

  9. As much as I like to think of myself as a mildly seasoned trader, I fear I am still an amateur. I just sold my overnight calls for a nice profit, but I am sorely tempted to buy back in at 37.50, right at resistance where atlee said not to buy... Must wait for a dip!

  10. @atlee. Agree with your caution. Good time to take some AGQ profit off the table. Hard to do given it's running up in this first 15 minutes of trading day but hey this is only 15 minutes of an 8 hour day. Solid advice man.

    TF thanks for the updates. Uh huh take aim at the speculators. Easy to do since most people don't understand what the gov't is doing with finances anyway. The effect on the markets and speculators can be real though. Margin hikes anyone?

  11. H: Thank you for your invaluable contribution to managing these "contests". Did you ever send me a pic of you in your hat?

    DrD: Thanks for the kind words. I was hoping that someone had noticed ;)

  12. Couldn't help myself. Bought more HMY at 13.39 and 13.40. It trades contrary to the market, but always bounces off the lag.

  13. Guys
    All I am saying is keep it in perspective. Buy and hold is a great strategy if you can weather the storms. I just say use caution if you are not long already, the risk here is unacceptable. But there is such a thing as luck. Maybe you buy here and get lucky and we go straight to 39. Ulimately you are responsible for your account and money management. I hope we all make a ton with no pressure. GLTA

  14. Hard to say i guess, but will we be seeing yet another large dip before or after we reach 39.5?

  15. Brian: I am sceptic. Then it was werry "luck" fore western countries that he started slaughtering his own people.

  16. @TURD

    does that mean u'll actually "short"silver??can u kindly elaborate if "SPREAD"means hedging??

  17. Yay! I ordered 500 more ounces of silver Maples yesterday from APMEX .... now I'm over 200# silver (at under $30)! And today my new (secondhand) bank safe gets re-combo'd and I can fill it up! As we watch COMEX drain!

  18. I wish I had the balls and the brains to trade futures, best to you TF and us dummies will keep stacking!

  19. @atlee - thx for the feedback.

    With Turd, yourself, and the other brilliant minds here....I like to compare my analysis to yours to see if we are in the same ball park. Kind of like the student checking his work with the teacher.

    Turd - once again, thx for this

  20. knock knock

    who's there

    37.50 bitches! let me in

  21. As Turd said about the previous runup (paraphrased) "this is what the market looks like without EE attacks".... man, I am making some serious coin on this rally, just have to remember to SELL WHEN IT TOPS.... ;-)

  22. @SP sain "37.50 bitches! let me in"


    Been hanging around ZeroHedge too long me thinks!

  23. Mr. Market just took some of my copper away at 4.12 Still hold 2/3s and will BTFD if we get one.

    PMs looking good, Louis.

    Thanks for the post, Turd. Was explaining fiat to my 8 year old daughter this morning; she saves her pre-1982 pennies and exchanges the post-1982s for nickles!

  24. @FOAGQ

    I'm letting my AGQ run at least until the market close.

    Huxley Ann


    Bought Eric#1's DXD/UGL pair and they're both green so far. But compared to AGQ, UGL is like being in a comd (at least for now.) I dowsed it and I will make a good eventual profit though.

    IMO YMMV HTH Trinity B is definately not a douche bag.

    Verification word: cashgrab. It must be prophetic.

  25. ZH is reporting that Mark Haines of CNBC has passed....

  26. indosil: None of this changes my expectation of a $42-43 high in silver in June. If I can sell some $45s, I can collect the premium and use those funds in other places. Besides, with a $5 spread on two contracts, if silver keeps running to 45+, the max profit is $50,000. I'd take that.

  27. Thanks atlee... I'm kicking myself for getting out near yesterday's high. Debating when to start nibbling again. My ego says wait for a lower price than I sold at, but I have a feeling we'll see 39.5 before we see 36.5 again...

  28. Thanks, Turd, for another great post. These criminals are getting more brazen, arrogant and becoming even larger assholes (if possible) since the "beat-down" began on May 1.

    Your posts only inspire me to reach greater heights with both phyzz gold and silver. My silver stack is comfortable for now, but I want more gold, which is my entire focus for the summer; well a trip Vegas for some live gambling as oppossed to the "gulag" gambling going on over at the COMEX.

    Thank you for all your efforts. Not sure if you saw my post from Tn Congressman Jim Cooper, but I am going to continue "riding him like a mule" until he 100% understands that we know, that he knows and we are watching. There is a special place in the 9th circle of hell awaiting there arrival.

  29. TF, thanks so much for the analysis. I'm not a buyer here, but definitely not a seller. That downward trend appears to be broken.

  30. @Dr. Jerome
    We're overbought on the 8hr, not impossibly so, but getting there. Check the 8hr RSI too. atlee may be right or wrong, but as always, if your position gives you fear...lighten up. XAG volatility means there's never a shortage of opportunities. I bought some of the dips overnight and unloaded just now at 37.50. Trading acct is presently flat. Happy to wait for price to come back my way again. Trying to squeeze the last dollar out is not for me, particularly with how the bigger chart looks.

    Tomorrow is jobs data. We're going to see some serious volatility between options expiration and then, could go either way, but it won't just opinion.

    I'm thinking 35.50ish looks get to get back in for a re-run up, assuming we don't strike 39.50 on this run. If we do and bounce off it hard...not sure what I'll think. If we blow through 39.50, that will scare me more and I'll be looking to trade some of my core PSLV out to cash at 40-42. Not selling my physical, so don't think that's what I'm saying :)

  31. @Turd

    Man, I gotta learn about options... makes my profits from straight AGQ buys look like lunch money.... ;-) .. but I figure, walk before running.....

  32. Physical makes my buy and hold strategy so easy… I'll never sell, I will spend.

  33. Sitting here suspicious... this is comex expiration day remember...

    So in my mind:

    1) There is negative pressure still possible today
    2) If the negative pressure does not come, then why do comex expiration days not result in it anymore? Has something changed?
    3) Last time we did well/jitney on comex expiration was April 26th, which lead to the epic meltdown on monday (yes I know things are different now but just mentioning)

    Really, I am just wondering what this means to be having strong days on notoriously weak cyclical points for comex spot price in gold/silver. Anyone have any guesses?

  34. Bought more HMY at 13.32, CDE at 25.98, and NGD at 9.62.

    It's going to be flip-o-rama Wednesday.

    word justify: raili

  35. Turd and/or Others -

    Would you mind giving a real life example, with real pricing for what it would take to purchase one option call at $45 for instance?

    I am just trying to get a picture of what kind of money it takes to get into buying/selling options etc...

  36. Fredrick B - are you sure that he wasnt set up or that it was all staged. many do. im just trying to find the truth, its what im about. but do take note, we all here are on the right track with owning PM's.

  37. Apparently what the Comex said about switching to the electronic system was true... Comex inventory jumped by 37M ounces.

  38. @Jimmy,

    I don't trade options but I assume it would cost $450.00 + comission.

    Correct me if I'm wrong. Bueler? Anyone? Anyone?


  39. @TURD

    Thanks a lot.
    That's a loud thanks from India.

  40. MACD's the only indicator that's not screaming sell atm... 4-hr RSI hasn't been this high since 4/25, SS looking way overbought...

    (not sayin' y'all should sell, just trying to convince myself not to buy yet...)

  41. I always liked Mark Haines.

    My best to your family Mark. Rest In Peace.

  42. I found a good site that explains things relatively well, but the pricing is out of date for certain. I am just trying to get my head around what the commission would be and how much it would actually cost to purchase the option itself.

    Here is the link, would one of you more schooled in options trading mind checking it out briefly and check it's accuracy?

    I really appreciate your time folks :)

  43. Speaking of Ted Butler... just wondering will they, as Ted has said on many occasions, put their hands in their pockets and do nothing...and watch the price explode?

  44. Great calls Turd!

    @indosil- As I understand spreads (correct me if I'm wrong), the purpose is to limit your downside and upside on the trade by taking opposite positions of different values. By selling 45 calls he is creating a position that will increase in value if silver falls, and also putting cash in his account that he can use for other trades.

    If silver continues to go up, the calls that he sold would lose value. However a 45 option is relatively cheap to sell(July 43 is at .48 now), so even if it goes to 0 Turd still makes a hefty profit from the 40 calls he already has. I think of it as an insurance policy on the trade.

  45. R.I.P. Mark Haines and condolences to his family. Right before the Final Four this weekend too.

  46. @jimmy

    the price of an option is usually based upon strike price, expiration date, and "implied volatility" of the item being traded. when market participants feel that there will be a more volatile move, they bid the price up of the options.

    the actual cost of the option is always changing.

  47. he is creating a bull call spread:

  48. Palin,
    ThinkorSwim will not give me an 8n hr chart... but the RSI is high on the 4hr. Think I'll watch for a while. We may get a pullback by 1pm. But, if we keep consolidating, a strong break over 37.50 will probably draw me in with a small position.

  49. @Jimmy the Hand

    Right now a July 45 call would cost you $1,350. A September 45 call would be $4,750. Depending on who you trade with commission would be $2-$10 per trade.

  50. @Scott
    Wasn't the purported reason for the comex expiration day take downs to reduce the size of the open interest and get people to roll to the next month?

    With the major contraction in open contract interest due to the great thrashing of 2011 maybe it's just not necessary. Maybe this month is a one off rest until open interest increases again.

  51. Chilton closed the interview by saying they work hard.

    Thye may work hard--but the true metric is accomplishment.

    When you see a daily pre NYSE open sell off in Silver, like clockwork, you realize how this entire thing is a farce.

    Having said that, over 10 years now even with manipulation, you simply had to buy and hold and watch the appreciation esp if in silver or miners (pre 2008 and sans ABX and NEM).

    Buy physical to protect your purchasing power, play with AGQ or DGP or miners or futures or options to create paper wealth to convert into more physical

  52. Thank you CDE. Thank you ver very much. I'm buying the dips today. Flip and dip. Flip and dip.

  53. @ Flaunt

    I was reading Ted Butlers take on the reason for the smack down and the specific goal of the manipulation: He believes that the 37 million ounces came from the SLV. Considering how the numbers match up this chart you posted looks like confirmation and more doubling of physical inventory in the dealer vault.

    Makes a lot of sense to me... Thoughts anyone?

  54. @Dr. Jerome
    You can see 8hr charts at either of these links...


  55. @Tesla - do you have the link to Ted Butler's piece on that?

  56. @Tesla: Apparently the Comex inventory data doesn't reflect the graph on Jesse's site. In fact, Jesse just added a caveat that the data may be bunk:

  57. I receive a news letter from Investment rarities - I will look and see if I can find it on their website... might take a bit, stay tuned and I will try. I two finger type, but if all else fails I will copy it by hand if necessary for you.

  58. Yes Scott, I too thought that today would be a smashdown day, but remember they smashdown to cover shorts and this time also to set up for QE3. I think they accomplished their goal using considerable firepower to do so. So basically this month is taken care of with the massive smashdown that occurred at the beginning of this month. The question now is how effective and how sustained will be the effects of their chicanery. But, tomorrow is another day, and it could be tomorrow that they hit the PM's I have seen this happen after options expiry. So, we will see.

  59. In and out of WTI on the numbers and flat now. Like some at 98.50, but it might not give me the chance.

    Corn looking better, so took an ear or two off the grill.

    PMs looking strong even with stocks looking iffy.

  60. Ag 38.70 by Friday 4pm.

    I know there's no hat at stake Turd, just sayin'.

    The miners are telling me something. Still figuring out what they're saying though :-)

  61. When will the new site be ready? An estimated date?

  62. Does anyone on the board practice elliot wave theory?

  63. @ Ben Roberts

    I wasn't under the impression that today would be a smashdown, I am just surprised we are green.

    Do you think they actually "have to smashdown" the price, or do you think possibly it is nothing more than typing a set price in the computer and letting to algos achieve it? I guess my question is "how free" is this price market... 100%, 95%, 80%, 50%, 25%? This percentage makes a big difference in my opinion, as I am leaning towards a number over 80% in control of TPTB. Even when they are not "in control" of the price, their computers can quickly make work... I can only imagine how smart those things must me...


    Anyone have any thoughts on the S&P?

    Does anyone get the feeling we are about to get another easing program somewhere in the world? Growth has stopped and this will not please our central banks of the world. However, they knew this... so don't think there is a "decision being made" about this... it is already set in stone...

  64. TF, fantastic post. Again, hats off for all you do.

    Had another friend "see the light" yesterday after many months of discussion. We've discussed the US/Worldwide debt problem, gold & the inevitable collapse. But what really hit him yesterday was the Belarusian currency devaluation. Said he had been reading about the country's issues & I said they just devalued their currency big time the other day, again, & thus, any Belarusian holding physical gold is that much better off as the paper becomes worth less and less.

    Finally the light bulb went off & he's purchased some gold bullion.

    What's amazing, imo, is the real price of gold/silver is unknown as the price has been/is suppressed. The way I view it, at a $500, $1000, $1500, $2000, etc. paper gold price, this is imo a bargain compared to what the real price should be.

    As an aside and with respect Mr. Butler, you're up to bat. We're all waiting to read your response.

  65. Fun to watch silver's numerous attempts at taking out $37.50

  66. Excellent post this morning, Turd.

    I've enjoying my first option gains by taking your recent advice. I can't thank you enough.

    I hope I'm smart enough to bank them at the right time. But regardless, this blog has been so fun and educational that I've profited already.


  67. scott...I am starting to wonder that. I have been trying to practice wave theory and if I calculated it right we are ending wave 4 right now in DJIA and next wave would take it to 13700...but I am not sure, hence the question earlier.

  68. Just broke up over 37.50. I think I'll go back in if this holds. I hate the thought of missing out on a run up to 39.50 be Friday. My hat is off to those of you who held all week.

  69. Turd, you are the best. Incredible.
    Thank you so much for sharing your knowledge.

  70. @CD

    RE: Ted Butler Newsletter...

    " This time the silver manipulators had a different goal and objectives (instead of a price suppression). They used every dirty trick imaginable to rig the price sharply lower on the COMEX. This time the liquidation they were after was not primarily long COMEX contracts. The goal of the silver crooks this time was to get hold of physical silver in the big ETF, SLV. And they achieved their goal. In little more than a week, The COMEX silver takedown forced 35 million ounces of silver to be sold and redeemed out of the SLV. I (Ted Butler) would bet my last dollar that the bulk of that 35 million ounces is now owned by the very criminals that rigged the price lower."

  71. Ok...I'll bite. Buying some slv puts in anticipation of the noon beat down.

  72. Interesting article on Silver's past parabolic corrections:

  73. It's great when the Turd spouts guiding principles and philosophy all in one writing. One can't help but feel calm and assured. In an uncertain world, its good to be among like-minded patriots.
    Stay alert, invest well, keep your body strong, and remember that even though there is vacuum of leadership, we are all citizens of this once (and future) great nation

  74. Eur/Usd just broke to new highs. Dollar seems to be rolling over again.

  75. Oh yeah, Turd, this was a hulluva post. I copied and pasted it into an email that went to about 10 friends and family. I said it was a shining example of why I love a Great Turd.

    As always, thanks. Hope Yogurt Store #2 goes well for Mrs. F Enterprises.

  76. I'm back in long, but staying nimble. I suspect there may be no afternoon smackdown. AG hung around 37.30 for over an hour after 10:30. I expected the rollover to happen then.

  77. @CD there was MUCH more.
    I wish I could type better... but my pleasure man!

  78. Hi Turd.
    How high do you see AGQ hitting in the next week or so?
    In and looking to bite mini-sized profits. In at $181 & held strong through the dip. Not looking to own it forever - too much decay.

  79. All systems go for holding physical gold/silver and related shares into the Summer/Fall. I don't see nothin but real money gold/silver as a flight to safety. It will just be how soon more wake up and get their asses covered before the meltdown in the USDinker dollar goes panic mode.

  80. I think we'll see ag $38.00 at least today.


  81. anyone else thinking of shorting just below 38? rsi is almost at 80...

  82. Wow, Mark Haines of CNBS just passed away. May God have mercy on him.

    Making one's career and daily bread from the mass dissemination of bald faced lies for the enrichment of the global financial oligarchy is not at all well received by Pearly Gate keeper old St. Pete.

    Hopefully Mark read the small print on that point when he made his deal with the "Network"?

  83. @daniel

    Turd is calling $42 - $43 in the next few weeks, so that's about another $40 - $50/share in AGQ... in that situation, I don't think the decay is a big issue.... ;-)


  85. @Scott, Level, I wonder if the action of late portends a change in the Hedge fund strategy, aka. Trader Dan's long held belief that they would probably revert to the Long Miners/Short S&P. vice the short miners long physical pm's? I keep putting in small bets in that direction but silver seems to get pulled down with the S&P every time, gold not so much. Short term, day trading basis,hasn't been working but, longer term, month chart, it looks to me to be slowly becoming visible. You seeing/feeling the same?

  86. Did anyone predict 40 today?

  87. WTI spouts a gusher without me.

    As Keith might say:

    It must be trading! It's a b**ch!

  88. Scott,

    You are spot on in my opinion. I think we are seeing signs that they are losing the control they once had,especially with days like today and yesterday. I also agree with Ted Butler, they know their days are numbered. As to what percentage of control they have, or once had, only time will tell for sure with respect to that. In times past, I think that control was 100% in the very short term, however the market has a life of its own and a power that they can't completely suppress, otherwise the PM's would have never be where they are today. Again, Ted confirms that they have accomplished their goals early this month. It looks like this smackdown will be short lived. Extremely bullish for the PMs.

  89. Since my timing has proved to be so innaccurate I'm thinking some bullish prognostication on my part may cause the silver gods to throw me a bone...

    $40 on 5/27/11 @ 1130hrs.

  90. Just got my Wyoming ATB coin from the mint. Should easily be ms69-70.

  91. I have to say Turd is right on again. Looks like gold is breaking out of that $10 range. Its so comforting to have this blog and Turd to keep us all sane in this crazy, crazy market. For that reason alone, this blog is priceless.

  92. Don't see how anyone can let the SEC, CFTC, dead head fed goon gov pack your financial parachute. Just when you need your chute to deploy there will be nothin but air. Thin air broken promises by rat basturds leading all to financial destruction. Blind men running through a mine field have a better chance of coming out whole than to allow any fed entity to regulate any of the peoples funds. If the dead head fed regulators were over desert sand? Deserts would now be emptied.

  93. guys... not sure if you read my last post.. but if comex inventory jumped 30 million then where is your squeeze going to come from... once again here is the nice chart... cut and paste the link and see it.

  94. This rally has legs. Silver is still highly oversold, COTs favorable, and Trinity B hasn't yet given the sell signal (a little humor...maybe, maybe not).

    Gold needs to join the party and then we could see low to mid $40's before the next big pull back.

  95. Yes !!!!! AFRUM IS BACK !!!

    Where have you been buddy,, you know how important you are to this blog. Hope you are alright. We all missed you and thinking of you. Welcome back afrum !!!


    perhaps someone can shed some more light into this...have a tough time believing 2 blokes indirectly controlled the oil price in 2008.

    And of course, the strategy to contain oil prices is the opposite of the silver market:

    "Given the importance of crude, there has to be a better way to regulate these markets and it would seem that "simple" steps like position limits and forcing speculators to take physical delivery on even a small portion of their trade would do a lot to discourage fraud and manipulation."

  97. Hello All:

    My 2nd time posting. Wanted some feedback/advide.

    Just called APMEX and is trading in:

    1 100 oz J&M silver bar, and
    1 100 oz Royal Canadian Mint bar

    I am exchanging these for 5 gold eagles.

    They are giving me $7,585 for my silver.

    I am paying them $8,084 for the 5 Gold Eagles.

    I will send them a check for $500.95 for the differential.

    I had bought these 2 silver bars for a total of $5,674.

    Is this a good idea/transaction.

    Any feedback will be appreciated.


  98. BTW,

    This is my favorite site on the entire dang internets.

    Love the community and Mr. Turd.

    I mostly read everything. But don't post.


  99. Thanks for all the help guys. I have an idea of how much money I need before playing with options now. I am close, but will sit on the sidelines for a bit longer to learn how everything works.

    Thanks again!

  100. @Scottj,
    good point, I thought today would be down or at best "contained". One possibility is that they might expect weak hands to be holding the longs after option exercises. Those can easily be shaken off in the next few days.
    If we get a take down, I suspect this will be a last good entry point before the BoS start lining up in order to get their July premium from Blythe.

  101. @soccer
    Not sure about all that. It's too heavy for me. I just trade what I see and I see people being left behind who are chasing now or going to be. This is running the prices up.

    I said yesterday that any $5-10 gold pullback was buyable. Then we pulled back 8.10

  102. @ILUVPMS

    Lets hope this rally fills the SLV vaults back up again...
    I have a feeling that the newly replenished supply of physical silver in the COMEX dealer vaults will be bought back by the SLV at much higher levels than it was drained (ruthlessly ripped out) at.


  103. Grasshopper. Take the money buy the gold on ebay
    There is an auction right now that is going for 7,751.20 for 5 eagles. Take the difference and buy more silver. That's what I would do.

  104. Thanks - RE. AGQ

  105. I bought some June gold $1540 and $1545 options for .30 and .20 each. If we get the big rally I and Turd expect June in gold, I can get some serious $ for very little investment. At worst, I think I can at least sell some for a small profit to get a guaranteed return and let the rest ride.

  106. TURD,

    any idea how comex got 37MILL ounces... ??

  107. @ ILUVPMS
    zerohedge said it was not true on their twitter feed

  108. Breaking news on my local news channel:
    Lost dog is home safe.

    Not joking, they just reported it. With everything that is happening in the world this kind of thing infuriates me. It's no wonder that people are so easily fed BS if they accept this as news.

  109. Thank you for the update Turd, you are a gentlemen among men.

  110. Picked up some TRE at 7.31 and in for the long haul. Been lurking a while here, I have some physical, but no clue how and to scared to play with options just yet. Thanks for all your hard work you put into this Blog Turd, can't wait to see the new site.

  111. LH no worse than my local News, the most important news story of the day..


    Asshole media shills.

  112. Grasshopper

    With the GSR around 41, that seems to me to be sort of a middling no man's land. Not so high that it screams MORE SILVER! and not so low that it screams MORE GOLD! Just neither here nor there.

    Still it all depends on your own personal situation. What sort of gold:silver balance do you want for yourself? There's no right answer. If you feel currently light on gold, then by all means, proceed. Especially if you have nice profits on the silver that you are parting with.

  113. FOAD? Until a glossary is readily available, can someone who knows this acronym spell it out? Anything with an "F" is usually self-explanatory ... but still. Just saying.

    F---in On Air Dweeb ... Dolt ... Dork ... Doofus ... ?

  114. I have a feeling it will be April all over again. EE will just let it go. Battle begins at 50.

  115. @ turd and all turdites

    As we explained in the opinion pieve below, the CFTC will do nothing because ...

  116. How about that Great Panther today? Seems to have shrugged of the "unpleasantness" from yesterdays news. Glad I stood pat.

  117. Maybe I've ben thinking in the wrong time-frame and the wrong reasoning in regard to the suppression of silver/gold pricing on the world exchanges.

    If the SHTF, the value of gold/silver is lower before confiscation/debt settlement and is therefore more profitable for the banks/government than confiscation after values rise to market levels.
    Are we seeing PM accumulation at suppressed levels over a very long time-span by reserve banks while they are simultaneously being paid to short the markets bv the great uncle? can the banks be playing our government against itself by obsequiesly supressing PM/supporting fiat while at the same time accumulating PM for the day of judgement? Is this to far out to consider? Who are the BofS for the last 20 years anyway??

  118. I was overjoyed when my "lost dogs found" saga made the news...

    Local TV interviewed me also, and I (we) made the USA Today. Must've been the hottest story in NH that day...

    It's good to hear some good news from time to time...

  119. "FOAD? Until a glossary is readily available, can someone who knows this acronym spell it out? Anything with an "F" is usually self-explanatory ... but still. Just saying.

    F---in On Air Dweeb ... Dolt ... Dork ... Doofus ... ? "

    FOAD = "F Off And Die."

  120. FOAD Fat Old Annoying Douche.

  121. Have some respect for the dead. That's a bad look guys.

  122. Spend your time buying this gold dip if you want to do something productive instead.

  123. Tim and Eric,

    Thanks for the feedback.


  124. Theworldhaschanged you giving up your wedding ring and jewelry you bought your significant other over the years? Its gold correct? I certainly am not! Besides that you give Americans too much credit no one I know owns 1oz of silver never mind Gold. And besides that most cashing it in as I type...Not one person I know owns any physical metal Confiscate what may I ask...By the way What metals? See there was this boating accident right...well you get the picture.

  125. @Jimmy,

    Caveat: I am no options trader.

    You need to be absolutely clear with options, that price movement alone does not dictate gain/loss. Time and volatility can,at times, play more of a role in price of the option than movement in the spot price. Be very careful.

    This is a good place for someone who IS an options trader to jump in and explain the RISKS involved and to recommend a text for Jimmy to learn from.

  126. Silver price just shitting on range indicators.

  127. Jimmy,

    not much of a trader so someone else can chime in on the risks of options trading. As for readings, this may be a start:

    From the ZH site the other day:

    peruse through; perhaps someone will give a recommendation on a specific pdf.

    I believe Ginger posted this the other day from NIA's site:

  128. eric#1,

    Regarding GPL. My first reaction yesterday, was that it was another Bri-X in the making.

    IMO they have done everything right in response lack of data correlation and it is clear to me that in no way is this issue malicious or deliberate. The one thing I question is timing. When did they know data wasn't correlating and did they know before insiders started selling heavily?
    It is encouraging that the market has shrugged this off. Yes, shares sold down yesterday when they should have been up, but the selling was not on huge volume.

    I'm holding my shares until the next interim top in the silver market($42 - $43 by June 30th).

  129. 5-min chart showing a double top?

  130. Check out the King and Warburton quotes below...

    Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

    Referring to yesterday's news that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is suing two traders and two trading firms on a complaint of manipulating the cash oil market to profit by $50 million in the oil derivatives market (, Bill King of the King Report, published by Ramsey King Securities, has the quote of the day, week, month, and maybe year:

    "Manipulating cash prices for a larger derivative payout is a regular feature in all markets. And $50 million is chump change compared to the billions being made manipulating the markets on almost a daily basis."

    That is, as the British economist Peter Warburton discerned in his 2001 essay, "The Debasement of World Currency -- It Is Inflation, But Not as We Know It" (, market manipulation is the very purpose of derivatives.

    CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
    Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

  131. Awesome, thanks for those links.

    Butler just kicked out a newsletter. Seems he is asking folks to write their congressmen about everything. Not sure that's gonna do a d@mn bit of good sense they are almost all owned by the banks any way.

  132. - Off topic question/request re PM spreadsheets -

    Anyone point me to an Excel or a Google docs template spreadsheet that you use for tracking PM's (more so physical) i.e price paid, spot, premium, purchase date.


  133. Excel spreadsheets are super easy to create, you can root around Google 5-10 minutes for instructions on SUM clculations and stuffffff..
    This way you can taylor it to your needs.

  134. @uptofreedom,

    Congrats on a happy outcome, I loved reading the piece. Please give Ripple and Cassidy a big hug and a milkbone each from me.

    So happy for you. And them!

  135. Some interesting charts here showing how commercial real estate is in the process of falling off a cliff. Haven't heard much about this in the mainstream press, so it might be of interest.

  136. @uptofreedom,
    I see that double top. Perhaps 37.50 is support now...

  137. Jimmy & other fellow options noobs,

    You can get a paper trading account and some pretty good educational resources on options here: For starters you should look at the first section on calls/puts/covered, the greeks, and limited risk strategies.

  138. @MrMiyagi

    Has this mkt got enough pulse for you now? Just checkin.

  139. @SSK, Wow, is that you taking profits in TRE? I'm still waiting patiently for $6.75, have I missed the boat and need to move my buy limit higher to the $6.90 region...still holding my core 1k shares.

  140. thanks, ewc... I was happy with the outcome too, to say the least. Last time I cried that much was when my brother died...

    anyhoo, if ya wanna see 'em an Attitash PR guy took some pics of us leaving the ski patrol hut...

  141. can we pls get a 37.90 in here?

    going once, going twice....

    jimmy, i would search amazon for option trading books; there are a ton that are good. whatevr u do, read as much as u can b4 putting up too much of ur hard-earned money. ideally u should paper trade first for a while.

    once the new site is there, hopefully we can nail a trading thread that provides a bunch of tips. right now there is a wealth of info in the forums but u have to dig through the comments

  142. on this push I am getting flat. I don't want to be responsible for anyone missing 30 cent move in silver so pls do your own thing.

    I MAY eve short some AGQ near 200 if I get the chance. MAYBE even a miner or 2 as well.

  143. Lester
    re: GPL

    I don't think there's actually anything wrong with the property in question, but it just feels to me like another reason why this is not my favorite management team. Which means one more reason why sometime when I'm looking to lighten up on miners, I'll be thinking about GPL too.

  144. @The Golden Gospel,

    I can't point you to a template, but I sure as heck wouldn't store "list_of_all_the_gold_and_silver_in_my_house.xls" on Google or anywhere else on the Internet.

  145. Bidders offer $3.20 for each $1 in 5-year debt

    Treasury sells $35 bln in 5-year debt at 1.813%

    Indirect bidders buy 47% of 5-year note auction


  146. @atlee

    r u waiting for a retest of support and if so, whr?

  147. @Dr. J - peaks were 37.91, then 37.89, then 37.81 a few minutes ago... will be telling it it goes higher.

    suddenly I'm a lot more comfortable about being on the sidelines. Now just gotta pick a re-entry point... 37.5 might be a good spot to start firing some bullets, but don't take my word on that...

  148. @ sp

    As Pailin says, the rubber band has been stretched too far in this direction. Off hand I am hesitant to say where but when I see it I will shout out. I think this move is all about silver futures option expiration and that is over real soon is it not? And a nameless trader that I respect took half profits in gold near today's highs.

  149. uptofreedom, those pics are just beautiful. Not sure if you or them look more relieved. Three Amigos, reunited. Made my day bro.

    I love NH, would move there in a hearbeat if my wife and daughters didn't love NYC so much (I freakin' hate the joint :-). We have friends in Newfields (down south near Exeter). I try to get up there a few times a year.

    Good luck with PMs and those fine dogs.

  150. @ Eric#1 and Lester

    GPL - I asked a TMFSinchiruna from "The Motley Fool" about what he thought of the press release - here is what he said:

    "I view it just the way Archer describes it ... as a puzzling indication of error in one of the two assay procedures, but one that in no way alters expectations regarding the exciting prospectivity of the deposit.

    Great Panther mined its way through veins for years without the benefit of codified reserves, and in no way do I view a delay in the next resource estimate as an impediment to the company's sustained production growth profile.

    Great Panther is now my #1 holding, since my recent purchases brought the value above that of my SLW stake. I continue to hold for a double-digit share price"

    I like this guy as he is able to interview management and pass information along.

  151. Rand Paul Heroic Seven Hour Filibuster
    If this country becomes even more totalitarian, don't blame Rand Paul.

    After the debate and amendments to the PATRIOT Act were shut down by a cloture vote in the Senate late Monday, on Tuesday Senator Rand Paul carried out a seven-hour filibuster on the floor of the Senate to buy time to fight back against the proposed four-year extension of the PATRIOT Act. Majority Leader Harry Reid and other leaders in the House and Senate still don't want to hear debate or consider amendments to the bill.

    A combination of the Senate’s arcane rules and Sen. Rand Paul’s insistence on voting on several controversial amendments may cause the Patriot Act to lapse at the end of the week (at least for awhile), reports The Hill.

    According to The Hill, here is how Senator Reid is fighting back:

    Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) on Tuesday evening tabled a motion to proceed to an extension of the Patriot Act in a complicated maneuver to circumvent Paul.

    The purpose of the maneuver was to save time in the face of Paul’s staunch resistance to an extension of the homeland security law, which expires at 12:01 am Friday.

    The tactic will save time by denying Paul votes on several amendments he was pushing. It will also allow the Senate to vote on ending his filibuster on Thursday instead of Friday, according to Senate aides.

    However, if Paul insists on using all 30 hours of post-cloture debate he is entitled to under Senate rules, he could force the Patriot Act to lapse for a day.

    Even if Paul waives the 30 hours of post-cloture debate, lawmakers will have to scramble to get the extension signed into law by Thursday because President Obama is in Europe.

    Officials will have to fly a copy of the Patriot Act extension overseas if they are to prevent it a range of law-enforcement powers from expiring.

    HT: Economic Policy Journal.


    GO GET'EM RAND screw these sons a bitches!..

  152. @uptofreedom,
    If AG will hold 37.50 the rest of the day, I'll probably get back in overnight. I am trading SLV options. Waiting around to see if there is a sell-off before the COMEX close. Normally I don't like to stay in overnight, but the past two days have been friendly to us.

  153. @SSK

    Thanks for leading me on to NGD a few days ago. I am now in the green on that one. Where are u looking to sell it for profit?

    Also, what's your opinion on PGXPF? They announced yesterday that they found new gold deposits on one of their properties. I am trying to buy the stock but it's flat and not trading today. Wonder what's up with that..

    I'd also be very interested to know how to play the rising of oil prices. Is there a straight up oil stock to buy or what do u guys like when it comes to oil and the rise in price?



  154. I'm so glad to be here just reading along for now. I will probably never try my hand at trading paper PMs, after getting burned this past month. To do it right would really require more sustained focus than I can muster with two babies under the age of two. The other day I walked out the door in my slippers. Yeah.
    So we've bought some silver and we're planning to jump in a lot more with both silver and gold, around Turd's predicted late-summer retracement. A friend advised us about 6 years ago to jump in on palladium but we didn't have anything much to invest then. He made a killing.

    Didn't buy this last dip despite knowing that I should, because I was just too much of a deer in the headlights. And there are just so many extraordinary variables at the moment, between the Euro situation, QE3?, and the debt ceiling issue. I just want to get out of paper at break-even and move on.

    Going forward, it's all physical for us if I get my way. My husband is really curious about John Doody and wants to try his newsletter, maybe follow it for 6mos and see how his picks perform. Thoughts?
    For the physical, we just need to figure out storage (we're thinking 1/2 in a good, hidden safe and 1/2 in a safety deposit box), how much to keep with us and how much to keep in our ultimate destination, and where to store the "long distance" stash.
    Anyway, just wanted to say a word of thanks to TF and all of the very knowledgeable folks who post here. It's nice to find a community where the level of dialogue is both civil and so enlightening. Y'all are educating at least one average jane here.

  155. As usual, Charles Hugh Smith nails it. Saw it on ZH, but here is the original.

  156. @atlee

    i hear u i am lighter now than earlier, see difficulty breaking through 37.70s and thr is still much room to go down

  157. FYI,

    2-3 Months and HKME will start trading in Silver.

    This means that HKME will be buying heavy to stock the exchange over the next 2-3 Months. IF they are going to try to hit COMEX Average Silver stocks that is 100Million Ounces! COMEX has 35 Million (possibly as of today 70 Million) ounces. So even if they are to match COMEX today that is between 30-70 Million ounces purchased and moved to HK.

  158. "Likely, the only "financial system" you know is the one that is dead and gone and not coming back."

    That certainly sums it up.

  159. Soccer,

    I wish I could move a stock like TRE! I did sell a couple thousand shares at 7.33 earlier. My big move today was CDE. I've also sold half my RVM at 3.88 for a grand in hand. I've lightened up on NGD which I sold at 9.87 earlier today. I missed a chance to sell my HMY from earlier, but the day is still young. I think HMY will retest the top channel of 3.70 (My ask is 3.67).

    I haven't gone back to the silver miners (except RVM) since the sell-off. I've waited for a confirmed bottom. I'm being conservative here with silver. Now gold miners, on the other hand, I have been building long positions with NGD now mh top holding with GG, ABX, HMY, AUY and DGP. I'm looking at EGO and NG again. They have been dogs for so long, I'm thinking it's their time for a little love. I'm not buying any more today. I'm in sell mode. This has been a very profitable rally and I'm ringing the register. Have a big sell on NGD at 9.97. We'll see if we hit it.

  160. Link to the HKMEx

  161. Jan Roos,

    Don't thank me for NGD. Thank Atlee. He put me on the scent a while back. It's a damn good miner. I tend to look first at geography and earnings second. In this case, NGD came up roses.

  162. ROckingjohnny,

    I'd be very weary of anything with the words "my number 1 holding" and "puzzling". That press release was just weird. Makes me question the CEO. Amateur comes to mind. I think SLW and EXK are safer moves. If you really must invest in a great mine with rotten management, there is always HL!

  163. Yep, sound logic, lightened up on silver miners today, reverse if sustained $37.50 for 3 days, standing strong with gold miners, looking to add still, raised my TRE buy limit to $6.85. Good luck!

  164. Euro Price of Gold Hits Third Record in Three Days as ECB "Basically Trapped" by "Horror Scenario" of Greek Default

  165. 1-min chart showing lower highs since 1130hrs. 37.50 looks like support but I don't trust it...

    15-min chart shows a pennant forming. Down angle's steeper, unless I'm mistaken that's a sign for a break down...

    can anyone confirm what this novice trader is seeing?

  166. 5 minute live chart, bollinger bands with the ma of 18. Been folowing that the whole move. Is very trader looking at that road map?

    @ SSK
    thanks for the props on NGD. You pulled the trigger though so props to you.

  167. RockinJohnny, eric#1,

    Thanks for your input

  168. Keep a sharp eye on the Euro, we maybe in for an afternoon revesal downard.

  169. @uptofreedom

    this action is all manipulated so I don't think it matters much. There are 2 sides and one seems to be standing down or waiting. But usually a pennant formation after a runup (flag pole)is a bullish.

  170. Scott,

    Looks like yesterday's pre-market take down on RVM was a total manipulative shake out. Here we are up almost 5% and 80 cents higher than yesterday morning at 9:29am. Talk about a rigged market. Fortunately, these guys get sloppy and raise up red flags for the little guys.

  171. Into afterhours markets for PMs now--easier for the big dogs to push or pull PMs around. WTI into final hour; selling off the highs. Going home long remaining corn and copper.

    Another strong day for PMs.

  172. @ SSK

    The fact that the lower prices didn't trade for more than a minute, and you were not able to buy at that lower price shows it was just shenigans of whatever type we would like to conclude. I am expecting this drop down to be nothing more than a test of the 200day MA in the grand scope of this stock price. I wouldn't count on these prices to be here long, and am looking for a move back to pre-panic levels in the near future. There is just a tremendous amount of potential here, but the market doesn't like the story (as of yet).

    It will be telling how fast a lot of these miners rebound in knowing if they are due for the "re-evauation" for these higher prices in the coming days.

  173. @atlee - that is the wildcard, eh? TA, FA, can't trust any of it when TPTB can throw a curveball at us whenever it wants...

    What do you make of the mouth closing on the 10-min?


    Gold settles 0.2% higher at $1,526.70 an oune

  175. to Add to the HKMEx info here is a press release on the SECOND metals exchange to start silver futures contracts and who will need to be stocking for delivery soon. Shanghai Futures Exchange

  176. @ uptofreedom

    Unfortunately I think that is true. Except over the long run we chip away and work higher. But, at any momenet they can come in and crush it again. Like to get as many fresh longs at higher prices before they do that.

    Anyway, whenever the bands tighten up, it USUALLY is an indication of an explosive move in one direction or the other. Not always. If things all happened as constants there would only be one trader. right? so normally but not always. Like a venturi. forcing a liguid thru a compressed space.

  177. I posted yesterday but didn't see any responses.

    Anyone concerned about the run ups on silver and the holiday (market closed) next week? I show 5/30 is a London Stock Exchange Holidy too, and june 6 is a china holiday as well.

    Repeat of the Sunday masacre?

  178. @Shill

    And that's why I'm out of the miners mutual fund for the present, because they seem to depend on both the price of gold and the general stock market.... so on any day, you have a much lower chance of a broad selection of miners actually moving up.

    Oh, and AGQ thru 200!! WooHoo!!

    (Did I say that already? ... ;-)

    And this is why I'm trying to hang on tight, despite a huge emotional urge to sell.

  179. shawn,
    I'll probably sit out that weekend.

  180. Whoa! What an aftermarket. Content to be flat silver & gold here; grateful not to be short.

    July WTI got to 101.63

  181. QE2 ending, but Fed won't quit

  182. I am short AGQ at 200. Come and get me so the others can profit.

  183. TBT Getting into the game today as well..KERMIT FOR EVERYONE! :)

  184. @shawn, I personally think the damage has already been inflicted on silver, so no need for them to go to the well so soon. However, if silver were to pierce through the low 40s by Friday or something crazy like that, then maybe. But, I think $39.50 will give us plenty of resistance and overhead to work through.

    I'd like to hear TFs take on this subject.

  185. Greek EU Commissioner Maria Damanki said "the scenario of removing Greece from the Euro is now on the table."

    Now THAT sounds like it will have a calming effect on the markets. On the other hand, owning an island over there could be kinda cool...

  186. Do options expire in half an hour?

    I don't want to get stuck in the storm.