Thursday, May 26, 2011

The Small Businessman

Man-o-man. This small business stuff is fun but it can sure wear you out. On one hand, it's very cool to make all your own decisions and be responsible for getting things done. On the other, it's exhausting having to make all you own decisions and being the only one who will get things done. Thank you for your patience as this week is a very important one for Mrs F and she requires my attention. I promise that by next week we will return you to your regularly scheduled blogging.

A couple of things...

Having had 12+ hours of hindsight, I'm stunned now at the blatancy of the EE smackdown back at 5:00 am EDT. A brutal, $1.50+ bloodletting courtesy of your friends in The Cartel. From a distance, I was also surprised by my reaction to it. I used to get all strung out and pissed off over such things but now I'm just like, "whatever". It's such blatant criminality and manipulation but no seems to care so why should I? Seriously, the CFTC couldn't give a shit. The SEC looks the other way. Congress passes a law with position limits and the law is simply ignored. You don't like the law? Screw it! Who cares? Ignore it! That's how it works these days in The Land of The Free and the Home of The Brave.

A bunch of interesting "conversations" in the comments section of the previous thread. Please allow me to touch upon a few:

1) I don't know who this "Trinity" person is and, frankly, I don't care. If it comes back, that's perfectly fine with me. It can post whatever it likes so long as it stays within the bounds of decorum we all follow. Never forget that, in the end, this is my blog and I have final say on content. I'm also the one who ultimately gets to judge readers/commenters as either "helpful" or "douchebags". Trinity's initial comment here was deeply into "douchebag" territory and it was labeled as such. If it chooses to participate in the future, it has the opportunity to work to remove that label. Until then, the label sticks.

2) Greek default and euro weakness is not PM negative. Oh sure, maybe on a one-day basis the euro may fall, the POSX may rise and WOPR will sell some PM. However, we are now at the endgame of the fiat currency, keynesian experiment. The number of folks protecting themselves with PM is growing each day. Going forward, all dips will be bought. Maybe not the next day or the next week, but all dips will, most surely, be bought eventually. Count on it.

3) We all disagree from time to time but please try to keep the name-calling and profanity to a minimum. I will disable comments before I allow threads to become the cesspool of pettiness that plagues every other PM blog available today. Got it, you f***ing c**ks***ers? OK.

Now, here are some quick charts. The silver chart has almost completed its FUBM from this morning. It just needs to move now through 37.70 and then it will head back to 38. I've got a last of 37.68 so things are looking up!
I don't recall when but, sometime last week, I told you that gold would struggle to clear 1525 and then pull back to 1515 before mounting a successful, final charge through that level. Lo and behold, looky here! (If it wasn't me that was doing it, I'd swear that this Turd guy was either some kind of witch or a mole/plant of the Evil Empire. The frickin guy is almost kind of spooky sometimes.)

Lastly, the POSX is once again in danger of rolling over like the dog it is. This "calvin" bounce needs to continue higher...and soon...or it will restart it's death spiral and the hounds will be unleashed.
My buddy, Trader Dan, has a better picture and more complete analysis of it. You can find it here:
He's such a nice guy, Trader Dan. Almost everyone else I know is a cynical, dour narcissist like me but not ole Dan. How he's able to remain so pleasant and cheery after all these years of commodity trading is beyond me. You should be sure to read his blog daily.

That's it. I have to head back over to wifey's new store to work on a few more details. Have a great overnight and let's see what tomorrow brings. Fridays before 3-day weekends are always extra exciting.


  1. Morning (evening) Turd! Thanks for everything buddy.
    ...and First...again!

  2. JoeKa,
    I assume you accept silver rounds as payment?

  3. Repost from last thread

    Great trade on that short. Glad you made money and I'm glad you covered. Well done, very well done.

    Great call on 1515 holding. Double bottomed right there. Right on the nose. Atta boy.

    Anyway, soon after the open when we first took the drop I was giong to post that GLD held the 200MA on the 10 minute chart. This was the first test of this MA and it would be unusual for it to fail on the first test after breaking to the upside. The close was interesting because GLD was pinched between the 200MA and the 50MA very tightly but the 200 was still holding. Gold could gap up tomorrow and the 200 should hold for now.

    Silver sure is a bucking bronco.

    What's up with all the fighting today with Hux and Atlee and whomever else? That's not necessary.

    Can whoever reads those blogs that Trinity posts at please repost them here? This is the only blog I read. Not sure who else is Turdcentric?

    @TF (again)
    What's in a word? delete that damn douche or maybe just delete that whole post if your literary integrity keeps you from modifying it. I think she's interesting and at the very least she brings excitement to the town. We're all adults, we can be trusted with sifting through the information.

    I had pictured you are a Stevie Nicks type not Steven Nicks. I was way off base. Still want to look at your star charts.

  4. Just friendship. Just friendship.

    *friendship as in measured by 1oz Silver rounds from CMI and or any other place you can get em.

    @TF: to further add, I find it cool that you refer to yourself in the third person.

  5. Thank You Turd. You are the best.

  6. I wish I had just sat on my book today rather than pitching it in the morning only to buy it back and pitch it several more times throughout the day. Ended up buying back part of it at the end of the day. Utter nonsense and a waste of time and money. However, this may portend good things for the future because this is exactly the kind of bullshit I did at Turd's Bottom #1 before settling in.

  7. Thanks Turd. You are indeed the best.

  8. Turd,
    I assume your handwriting says, "Pigatha Christie." Instead of a whodunnit, the dollar is more like howlongcanit?

  9. Turd Master, any thoughts on PM's rolling over with equities like 20% to the downside before qe3 starts? Mark Farber and Micheal Pento have implied or outright said it. Makes me nervous, more like awake at night worrying.

    Please help me sleep and make this a pay site, plzzz. I play the option game very little but would like to chip in.


  10. Given that Turd is back to helping his wife and probably not reading these comments, is anyone able to tell us what 75.50 on POSX futures equates to on POSX cash?

  11. Thanks, Turd (Sensei)

    BTW, I think you have a little yogurt on your shirt... :)

  12. Turdle: Gonna gander a guess (sorta!)

    I think you would first need to find out the currencies which make up the POSX -- e.g. EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF...

    Then do exchange translation of the % stake of each currency in relation to the USD.

    Wallah! You have the CASH equivalent.

    BTW this is how smoke comin outta my ass smells like.

  13. @ level head...I've been watching and reading from afar. Shouldn't your name be 'Agent Provoketor'?

    L Head said;
    Can whoever reads those blogs that Trinity posts at please repost them here? This is the only blog I read. Not sure who else is Turdcentric?

    @TF (again)
    What's in a word? delete that damn douche or maybe just delete that whole post if your literary integrity keeps you from modifying it. I think she's interesting and at the very least she brings excitement to the town. We're all adults, we can be trusted with sifting through the information

    Who are you to request of another on behalf of another to change what has been written and said?
    A rose by any other name is just as sweet!

  14. As a neophyte turdophile, I have an urgent request. Is there a Turd For Dummies? I feel left out and dangerously uninformed, not knowing what POSX, FUBM, WOPR, and all the other FLAS stand for.

  15. "I'd swear that this Turd guy was either some kind of witch or a mole/plant of the Evil Empire."

    I was thinking the other day, this Turd dude MUST be in the room when the daily briefing on manipulation occurs. Otherwise, how could he get it so right so often.

    Of course, there was that tragic Sunday. But maybe he was setting us up?

    Then, I realized it didn't matter. Trailing stops, trailing stops, physical, real estate, repeat.

    Thanks, Mr. Furg!

    Jim M.

  16. Given the Cartel's history of raiding at low volume timeframes (ie 5am) and Holidays... Does anyone suspect a raid over this long Holiday weekend when foreign markets are open and US mRkets are closed??? I've mentioned it before but no opinions. Are you staying long over the weekend or flat?

  17. Do you guys think there will be some selling if we reach 38.5-39 tomorrow sometime with people wanting to be flat over the long weekend?

  18. oldNavy

    re: pop in LNG

    I thought I heard the guys on Fast Money, while discussing natgas, say something about some permission to export natgas. Didn't really catch the details, but I would think that would benefit LNG. They got the terminals, right?

  19. good morning all

    crap....u guys scared me last night when u said its going to 35.5. closed many of my longs that made sever losses..... can anyone provide any assistance on how to trade well?

  20. tomo,
    sounds like you ought not be trading

  21. Silver Price Manipulation JP Morgan -v- Bunker Hunt
    Australian news channel
    oh snap!

  22. FYI per JoeKa - his icon is from a 1948 move "The Boy with the Green Hair" - Google it

  23. Turdle, that wasn't very constructive, was it?

    Tomo, keep in mind that every decision you make is on you and you alone. Your decisions will/may be influenced by what other people with more expertize say, but at the end of the day, its you that pull the trigger.
    If its any consolidation, i trimmed some of my longs yesterday as well, but been inching my way back in during this recent run.

    All you can do is learn from the experience and move on. I think most of us been down that path.

  24. "...please try to keep the name-calling and profanity to a minimum."

    This was the point where I begin to skip comments. I almost decided to skip all comments from several posters b/c of this. Fortunately, I didn't and everyone chilled out.

    Gets a little hot sometimes, so it's not always easy to hold back. But we need a community and to learn from each other. None of us will be able to go it alone. Some of us may be surrounded by sheeple and have no one else to support us in the fight.

    My daughter taught me a lesson she learned in girl scouts.

    "Daddy," she said, "crumple this piece of paper." I did. "That's like saying mean words to someone you care about. Now unfold the paper and smooth out the wrinkles."

    I did so, slowly, looking at those big innocent eyes. "Daddy, you can straighten it out, but you can't EVER make it perfect again."

    I still have the paper taped to my bathroom mirror, a daily reminder I can never miss. No excuses.

    That paper kept me from posting to call out the name callers. Glad I didn't.

    Thanks to everyone for getting it back under control. I appreciate it, so I can only imagine how much TF appreciates it.

    - Jim M.

  25. Turd
    Just admit it. You are a soothsayer, a psychic, AND a witch!

  26. Question for the group... I've been struggling with whether to buy into the full blown hyperinflation camp. Ive read both FOFOA post and Mish's recent response to it. I'm 52 and can see the next 15 years rapidly approaching. I'm accumulating PMs slowly, but only for about 6 months. I find the posts here to be some of the most intelligent and informed I've ever come across, but I'm not in the same league, but trying to learn. I believe we will have significant devaluation of the dollar over time but not sure if we will get to the point of complete collapse.....I guess I'd like to hear what the group here thinks, are we going down that road?....any and all opinions would be welcome....good luck with the new shop Turd and thanks for all your hard work!

  27. Jasper -

    The CCI and the S&P track hand in hand pretty much nowadays with the "risk trade" being how it is. Therefore, if one goes so does the other.

    I would LOVE to see another 20-30% smackdown on all commodities as it would be another dip from heaven and build even more upward pressure under bull (which is just getting into it's stride at this point in time). As *they* say, sell in May or go away. Personally, I'm watching the S&P closely as I'm itching to sink my teeth in the SPXU.

  28. @longjohn
    I'll tell you who I am. I am a loyal Turd reader and contributer of content to his site. I will give him my opinion and he can do with it as he chooses. I understand where he's coming from and I bet he understands where I'm coming from. If Trinity is encouraged to post I think that gives us an edge or at least some entertainment. I'm an educated consumer of information and as such I don't want any withheld. I would like her posts reposted by someone here because I think we suffer if they are not.

  29. POSX decisively below 75.50, mostly due to the Euro again of course.

    Has to be very good news for PMs.

    I'm still sitting on the fence, looking for a bigger move before shorting the Euro.

    Looks like Greece is being given an ultimatum, either embrace austerity for real, or leave the EU (Juncker).

    I'm surprised the soft reprofiling escape has been taken off the table.

    I guess the market thinks they will accept austerity, or the euro would not be bid.

    And now it appears that bad news in the US is good news for stocks, as it means lower rates and QE to infinity.

    It always takes me a while to catch on to the new trading paradigm, but I get there eventually.

  30. Eric#1 said...
    Just admit it. You are a soothsayer, a psychic, AND a witch!


    Hopefully not a cross-dresser too! Sheesh.

  31. Turd I just sent you a donation - the value I am getting from your blog is more than worth it.

  32. @Kurt: Bladdy hell! I neva thot someone on here would figure that out!?

    Good on you mate! :)

  33. I'm glad our leader made mention of the language issue. Mind you, I spent nearly 30 years of my life in the US Navy whence originated the expression "cuss like a sailor" so there are probably few words that shock or offend me much. However, I am offended by stupidity and arrogance, even (especially?) from people I otherwise like. If you display a total lack of concern or respect for others on the board, IMO, you display those two "qualities".

    And if you make this an unfriendly environment for the Gingers and Ginas of our community, I think we all lose.

    No need to walk on eggshells, but a little consideration won't kill you either.

  34. JoeKa

    I wasn't slamming. It was a joke. A play on TF's own verbiage over there underneath the big yellow hat picture. SHeesh!

  35. @ Jive

    search Turd glossary. I think it's Dec.2010

  36. Honest John - it's never as bad as some would lead you to believe. I personally think every hack that has a blog (Turdmister excluded) is competing with all the others to be THE person to "call it." It's ridiculous.

    For perspective, go back and read PM blogs or websites from few months ago..even a year ago. It's hilarious to read how WRONG many of them were because they bought into the hysteria waaaay too early and totally underestimated the TPTB to keep the ship floating.

    If I had a silver Eagle for every time I read the COMEX was gonna default tomorrow, I'd have a safe the size of Texas full of them.

    If I had a bottle of whisky for every damn time I read "the dollar is dead" in the past year, I'd be running my own liquor store.

    Always remember the markets will remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent. Yes, prepare, be diligent and ready to move, but don't lose the forrest in the trees.

  37. Eric: seriously, I hope at least the mustache is real or else I want my money back.

  38. Turd said....
    "3) We all disagree from time to time but please try to keep the name-calling and profanity to a minimum. I will disable comments before I allow threads to become the cesspool of pettiness that plagues every other PM blog available today. Got it, you f***ing c**ks***ers? OK."

    BWAHAHAHAHA !! That's funny but oh so true. We certainly don't want to devolve into the kind of forum like Zero Hedge. Its boring to watch people beat the crap out of each other verbally in long diatribes of ad hominem attack. However, Trinity deserved what it, he, or she got the arrogant c*nt. lol Sorry, but I can't stand that holier richer better than thou attitude.

    Great update Turd. Thanks again!

  39. @HJ

    Put me in the camp of constant devaluation of the US$, about 5% a year, interrupted at some point in the next 5 years by a deflationary collapse of the credit bubble.

    That deflation may or may not be followed by severe inflation.

    No one can predict the future with certainty, so I take all the forecasts by people that are 100% certain of which way we'll go with a grain of salt.

    Interesting to hypothesize about for sure, but no one really knows how this will play out.

  40. hehe - meanwhile I have not had any luck adding an icon. when I post and try to add it it doesn't appear to want to upload

  41. Eric#1

    RE: LNG - Yep, that would explain it. Yeah, they have the terminal in LA. This is probably one of the best stocks to play natgas.

  42. RAID !!!!
    On low volume.
    What can happen during low volume periods.

  43. looks like a normal little pullback to support to me.

  44. Turd,

    I don't think anything in this arena should surprise any of us anymore. Like my business partner says to me every year when its time to pay my taxes - just bend over, grease up and smile.

    Take heart in knowing that in the end the laws of math, nature and the universe win out over man's insatiable appetite for stupidity.

    You can't consume more than you produce forever and yes indeed we are quickly approaching some big changes in our world. I just hope I am around long enough to see it happen.

    Hang in there. Have faith and remember: Hubris is as hubris does.


  45. Turd, I always enjoy your site and I have one question.

    If the cartel could smash the price of silver as they did, can they do it as easily again as we approach $50 again?


  46. JoeKa
    I think we know pretty much what TF looks like. Anybody still got the link to that video he made a while back?

    Can't remember if he had the 'stache or not. I'm thinking not.

  47. @tomo,

    Who said it was going to 35.5? It wasn't Turd, so that would be your first lesson in trading well. Not that other people here don't have good ideas, and a few have predicted some good small movements, but remember who the man with the blog and the following is. Turd says don't take what he says as advice, blah, blah, but if you just take his primary targets, you will not get left in the cold thinking silver is going to 35.5.

    Unless you bought AGQ afternoon April 29 and are still holding, you would be doing fairly well using patience, waiting for the clear indicators Turd shows us. Turd provides the clear indicators with amazing accuracy. He did not say to jump in and catch knives. He told everyone to get out and wait until he gave the all clear. I've only seen a few people here that did otherwise and did well. Everyone else screwed themselves trying to beat the machines.

    Right now, with no blog nor credibility nor special powers but to destroy mining shares by buying them, my advice is to buy something volatile(agq, exk, ag) premarket tomorrow and sell it late in the afternoon before all the chickens sell in fear of a holiday weekend takedown. If not, wait until monday and buy, and then hold. From there, use patience and Turd's primary calls. Don't sell at big losses when the trend is up. Trading is for traders, and that takes time. Right now, we're on our way up to 39.50. We may dip a dollar or more before hitting it. You need to accept the wiggle, and hold until we near that target. That's an easy 5%-10%, unless you screw it up by trading your intermediate, meaningless in the long run, losses out of emotion.

  48. @HJ - I believe FOFOA - and even if freegold does not happen, we will have at least very severe inflation, at a minimum. Either way, gold is the way to go, and to a lesser extent silver. There is just no way deflation will happen. Inflation lets the debtors (TPTB) off the hook and since they get the currency first, they keep their leg up on everyone. JP Morgue being part of the cartel gets the money first before it gets inflated.

  49. @HJ

    I agree with Huma. A slow orderly devaluation. When they get close to zero they change the rules and invent something new. Metals and miners. They are real money when TSHTF.

  50. JoeKa

    Okay, I'm taking your advice and off to read that book now that Turd has told me my bedtime story!

    Have a good watch, y'all!

  51. Video? What video?
    I only know he sounds like sexy Emilio 'Young Gun' Estevez.

  52. Honest John,

    If you start with JM Keynes and his "one man in a million" comment about who can recognise hyper-inflation as it happens or approaches, it should help.

    Then my suggestion is to read "The Dying of Money" by Jens O'Parssons...I might be confabulating two similar books/authors but you can get them both on the net in pdf.

    From that, my take was that in Weimar Germany the seeds were sown in 1914-1918 but did not bloom fully until 1923 when a loaf of bread "cost" DM220 million...up from DM17 in 1914 (from memory.

    There was a stock-market boom in 1920. As the hyper-inflation raged the government would enact measures and millionaires would be made almost overnight as those who went long picked up gains on 25-40% currency moves...before they reversed.

    And even in 1923 most Germans could not understand what was happening as "prices increased" is a difficult concept for most.

    Hope this helps.

  53. @Level: you're right! Sorry for over-reacting. I was looking at the M5 and got carried away.

    Apologies chaps. Pls go back to bed, book, bonk...or whatever else you were doin.

  54. @JoeKa
    No problem. I'm sure you'll return the favor soon enough. Happy hunting it's getting late for me.

  55. @dr &humma

    You both validated what I was thinking too, I try and read as much as possible but feel this game will go on for a much longer time than many claim, in the mean time, in between work, life (divorced father of one perfect little girl), I'm just trying to see light at the end of the "experiment" I worry more for my daughter than myself, as most with kids do...thanks

  56. @ Eric

    I remember no stash- only sunglasses

  57. @Eric#1,

    Responded to your two helpful replies to my post on the last thread; hadn't noticed Mr. TF had already posted a new update.

    @Mr. TF- I can identify with the conflicting elements of satisfaction and feeling overwhelmed at times; the wife and I operate a small family beef operation on the side of our respective day jobs. Hope you and Mrs. F become very proficient at turning yogurt into PM's.

  58. Morning JoeKa.

    3;33 am here. Woke up 20 mins ago looked at phone and smiled @37.80 and some green digits.
    Dozed off, opened my eyes again and watching it plummet around 37.45.

    We're never safe!

    Back to zzzzzzz see u in a few.

  59. thanks for the advice code. will have to calm down and restart again.

  60. JoeKa

    There was a video message he gave us one time. I'm thinking maybe February-ish? I just spent some time looking for it but no luck. Can't remember the name of the post. I think he was wearing something like a baseball cap and sunglasses.

    Word Ver: kings

    Ooh, time for me to buy some more Soveriegns!

  61. I joined the blog after the sunday tragedy...which was lucky since I had a straddle position going...but i have certainly been impressed with the Double Deux since then.

  62. Tomo,

    Turd might mention prices and targets...take them for what they are worth...but the pure gold here is that Turd shares his thinking.

    Malcolm Gladwell observed that the common theme amongst people who are the best in their field is they spent 10,000 hours at it before they really took off.

  63. FYI due to that earlier shunt and bounce back, the Daily pivot has now moved up to $37.53

    It was at $37.35 just prior.

    Depending on where you bought, that could be a potential profit protection stop. Chande Kroll on the M15 confirms $37.53 as a stop level too.

  64. Chris
    You are going to love that 50 Peso. Friggin' huge! Major heft-in-the-hand satisfaction.

    ON the nickname thing, try this:

    1)log into your gmail account. the place where all your mail is.
    2)in the upper right corner, click on your email address
    3)click on View Profile
    4)click on Edit Profile
    5)go down the page and click on Nickname

  65. Turd said...
    Having had 12+ hours of hindsight, I'm stunned now at the blatancy of the EE smackdown back at 5:00 am EDT. A brutal, $1.50+ bloodletting courtesy of your friends in The Cartel. From a distance, I was also surprised by my reaction to it. I used to get all strung out and pissed off over such things but now I'm just like, "whatever". It's such blatant criminality and manipulation but no seems to care so why should I? Seriously, the CFTC couldn't give a shit. The SEC looks the other way. Congress passes a law with position limits and the law is simply ignored. You don't like the law? Screw it! Who cares? Ignore it! That's how it works these days in The Land of The Free and the Home of The Brave."

    This folks is what makes Turd the best in the business and the foundation of his stunning accuracy. He understands these criminal minds and is fully aware of the crime in progress. These are fundamentals essential to understanding the PM markets and this corrupt evil global monetary system. Why we do not get as upset as we used to, is because more and more we see a faster, and faster rebound when they attempt to suppress the metals. We are beginning to see some light at the end of the tunnel. The takedown at the beginning of this month was the most stunning in your face takedown I have ever witnessed in the ten years I have been following the price of metals on a daily basis. After the incredible magnitude of that criminal act, who can get excited at these misdemeanor crimes? Normally, a takedown of that depth would take months, and in the case of the one in 2008, years for the metals to recover. I suppose that 2008 really was the worst, but it was not as obvious as the one at the beginning of this month. So, take heart people, we are winning.

    And by the way Turd, we all care, because where there is a crime there is a victim. Some of us with lesser understanding are robbed and impoverished by these criminals. Your anger and outrage are fully justified and proper under these circumstances. Let us never become complacent and capitulate to this kind of evil.

  66. @S Roche: Bruce Lee said something to the effect that instead of practicing 10,000 kicks 1 time, he'd rather practice 1 kick, 10,000 times.

  67. @HJ
    I understand the concern you have if a collapse occurred tomorrow. However, if you are buying PM and following Turd trading options and futures, and then converting that paper/digital money into physical, you will much better off than most people.

    I also like Turd's advice about getting some extra foods. I personally have enough food for my wife and I for at least 6 months. It is all food we will eat anyway and it will last. Trust me, you feel very secure when you look into your pantry and you have piles of canned food and buckets of rice.

  68. Is most everyone here a PM oriented trader?

  69. Chris
    After #5 you might have to click Done Editing back up near the top. Not sure about that.

  70. @s roche &murph
    Thanks.....yes that helps!

  71. Miyagi

    Mostly yes, I think. But some do grains and oils too. Some dabble with TBT also (short bonds)

  72. here we go! EUR blasts through 1.42, taking gold with it, silver will be along soon

  73. Honest John

    You don't necessarily have to come down firmly on one side or the other. In the early days, the preparations are pretty similar. Just keep stackin metal and get your other ducks in a row. You'll be doing all you can do.

    Just like on the home prep side. In the early days, there's not a lot of difference between prepping for a 3 day ice storm, and prepping for full-on Mad Max. Just do what seems reasonable. Do what you can do. At some point you'll decide it's enough.

  74. @HJ

    I don't claim to know for sure, and I am watching things closely every day for new info that might make me change my mind.

    Big mistake to not keep an open mind.

    I am not a fan of Bernanke or the USD, but to think the dollar will suddenly become worthless is absurd, IMHO. (And I am an in the austrian school camp)

    It reminds me of the global warmers who fear monger by saying water levels will rise dramatically and all these people are going to drown.

    Are you kidding me? Like it's going to happen overnight, lol, instead of over 200 years. Like we can't adjust.

    That's why I am being patient and not buying gold at this level. Much as I believe in it, I don't believe in it at any price.

    I am quite confident (70% ?) that I will be able to buy gold cheaper in future.

    I also realize I will almost certainly be 'wrong' for 1 or 2 years before I am right, but that's ok by me, there's always something else to invest in while I wait.

  75. MMMMmmm...I foresee a little "shopping" in my near future :) It's been tough being on hiatus! EE, we may have been down, but certainly not out.

    Turd, and all, thanks much for everything.

    You are most excellent comrades!

    word ver: presse - PRESS ON!!!!!!!!

    (formerly IHAN,Gina)

  76. This comment has been removed by the author.

  77. @Jive Dadson -- google the blogsite for the term 'glossary' (ie. copy this into google:

    @Honest John -- I started accumulating to preserve purchasing power, not to get rich. The greed came later ;-). I am quite convinced that significant devaluation IS coming. Heck, it already HAS come -- take a look at Turd's post on food commodities (can't remember the title or date). Yes, the market can and will stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent, and the dollar will likely not die tomorrow. But each passing day increases the likelihood that the next one WILL be the day that it does.

    Get what you think will be able to get you through that period (food stores/supply, community of peers, PMs, whatever). If PMs do a moonshot, all the better, but ultimately you hold onto them until you exchange it for something that is NEEDED (real estate, food, safe passage, a new form of PM-backed currency, whatever).

    The main problem isn't necessarily just the devaluation of the dollar, but rather the collateral damage on the world's economic infrastructure, and the potential destruction of the financial system (though arguably the latter would be an improvement). The way I see it, you are NOT losing with PMs either way.

    @Eric - the video was deleted. Good call IMHO, only better one would have been not to post it all. Think about it...

  78. Gang,

    According to OandA calendar, Monday the 30th is Memorial day. US market is closed. Beware London is also closed.

    Take note and deploy protective measures. I am entering stop loss orders on all positive XAU and XAG positions.

  79. I remember the video. No stache, but the future was so bright he had to wear shades. I was shocked he posted one but more shocked he wasn't a wizard.

    I still have it etched in my brain as it was a cool move, but he's taken it down. Probably about the same time this blog morphed in size, audience and trolls. Can't say I blame him.

    On another note, finally got my parents to buy this last dip. That first taste of shiny is all it takes. I'll leave the rest up to Gresham.

  80. TF said.. "in the end, this is my blog and I have final say on content." ^This! Trinity comes in here demanding something be made so or else, really? TF & the rest of us were doing fine prior to & most likely long after this floaty is flushed down the turd bowl. This is not Trinity's blog, it can get with the program here or get stuffed

  81. @HJ

    Its almost built into our reality as a law of physics that we are headed for hyperinflation. We have passed the point of no return, only this time its going to be a global phenomena not just a local national disaster. Ultimately, the destruction of the money/currency system will be totally destroyed and what will be left standing are gold and silver. If you have some, you will have money when others have absolutely nothing but their physical possessions. So, hyperinflation first, then severe deflation as we default into the real money system,i.e. gold and silver. All paper monetary assets will be wiped out, except the mining shares, and possibly that too. I don't know. Its that simple. Prepare accordingly.

  82. countermeasure,
    it's therefore a perfect time for EE to knock XAU and XAG down and trigger all the stops, then reverse it back up higher! Wouldn't you do that if you had the power?

  83. Yee Haw TF. First time poster (2nd actually, but 1st one was deleted somehow) long time reader. Sold my entire CEF wad yesterday on a 21.96 limit order on your calls (and my luck). Rebought 1/2 the position today at 21.48 and 21.50... keeping the other 1/2 of the powder dry.

    Many thanks for all that you do.

  84. @miyagi

    i trade a bunch of different options strategies on indices and occasionally on a ticker. but those are usually 1-2 month holds.

    the more i trade silver, though, the less i want to trade anything else especially since i found this blog and señor turd....

    might as well face it, i'm addicted to turd.

  85. @huma -- I wonder why you think the the dollar's strength is imminent in the medium term (1-3 yrs?). Why it would do anything other than further Calvin bounces along the way down the chute. The constant expansion of the US (and global) money supply and the self-perpetuating debt spiral would indicate otherwise.

    I respect that your opinion goes against the grain for most (at least me, anyway), so this is truly a serious question. Will try to go back to your previous posts, I think you started to explain this a while back.

  86. anyone ever read pattern recognition by william gibson?

    something about this blog kinda reminds about it (in several ways)

    g-nite kids. joeka hold up the fort. c u on the other side...

  87. To add to what countermeasure said, apart from profit protection measures which I mentioned, you may consider putting in some plausible stink bids.

    You may never know if they get caught as the rest of global markets will be open.

  88. @HJ

    When u have time try listening to this might make more sense about devaluation.

    The below link is from a lecture to support national security at Johns Hopkins School of Applied Physics on December 7, 2010. The lecture is two hours long. He explains world currency issues better than anyone I have ever read. If you jump to the 60 minute mark he talks about gold reserves and what they mean to individual countries. The last 15 minutes or so he takes questions from various people in the audience who I believe are from the banking and military industries.

  89. nighty nite SP!

    *prepping for several hours of talking to self.

  90. Eric#, Re: OldNavy & NatGas

    Chenier Energy Partners (CQP) has a brand new (2009) receiving terminal & pipeline network that goes all the way up Ol Miss to The Windy City. They have a port facility at Sabine Pass LNG in western Cameron Parish, Louisiana on the Sabine Pass Channel (several miles inland from the Gulf of Mexico). Their SP facility also has storage tanks, docks, tug boats, etc. -- basically a complete self contained import/to-be-export infrastructure.

    CQP’s price has been floating between $16-$23 for about 2 yrs now. Their current yield is 9.55% which they pay quarterly. When the share price goes up, the dividend goes down, when the share price goes down the dividend goes up. I’ve collected as much as 16% when it was selling for $12-$15. I had at one point looked at CQP the way I now look at holding Phyzzz -- a great way protect my ‘trading profits’ from riskier paper plays (like PM’s & REE’s). I also saw it as a way of preserving what little savings I had accumulated in my IRA. So far it's worked pretty well. (Thank you all -- now & then!)

    But here’s the cool part about what they’re doing now. They originally set the company up to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) at their Sabine Pass facility and move it through their pipeline network. As you probably know, there is a great deal of excess capacity in the US NG sector now, and NG prices are at near 10 year lows. So what do you do with all that cheap gas that no one here seems to want?

    Well, CQP according to their website is

    “...currently developing our proposed liquefaction project at our Sabine Pass terminal which would transform the terminal into a bi-directional LNG processing facility capable of importing foreign sourced LNG and exporting U.S. natural gas as LNG."

    I believe that puts CQP in a very sweet spot to leverage the re-emerging Gas market to their investors advantage. Gas could easily become THE transitional fuel to a more energy independent, cleaner and much safer US economy. See: T. Boone Pickens for more on that.

    Look at Japan, do you think they are really going to go with Nuclear now? No Way, they will become once again the poster child for anti-nuclear shite! It makes a lot of sense for Japan & eventually for the rest of world to make Natural Gas a huge player in meeting our future energy needs. I feel that It is a ground floor opportunity for someone smart enough to go long NG. With a little luck & a lot of patience this company could be a reliable source of income in a world of energy (commodity) shortages & disruptions.

    If I continue to prosper with PM’s, and get where I want to be with the Phyzzz bros AG & AU, I’ll probably park what remaining paper I have in an equity like CQP -- take the 8% yield, and sail away from this nasty dust up to a simpler life. Per the usual, do your own DD.

    I have not held any shares of CQP for several months, but hope to do so soon again.

    word ver: combu

  91. Anyone else trading oil right now? $105 is looking like a possibility in the next few weeks.

  92. wonder what's driving the euro up?

    my guess is we'll see some announcement out of greece saying that they love austerity and everything's just fine.

    June 29 is the key date to watch, that's when the IMF is supposed to send the next tranche of $$ to greece.

    Of course in the end the IMF will send the money, no matter what, but should be lots of crazy politicking and behind closed door arm twisting going on all month.

    Don't get married to any particular position this month, is my advice.

  93. Thanks Turd and good luck with the business venture.

  94. With each passing day it is more and more clear to me that those who have created this debacle of monetary terrorism have no choice but to continue inflating until the dollar becomes totally worthless. That will take down every single fiat monetary sub-system in the world. They are all inextricably connected and none will survive. When this will finally all play out is anyone's guess. Its like the "end of the world" biblical "no one knows the day or the hour", but it is absolutely inevitable. I have absolutely no doubts whatsoever that this is going to happen and end in a hyper-inflationary collapse. I can see how others may not be so sure, but for me the evidence is overwhelming and the cause and effect reality is absolute. With each passing day it is more and more clear to me that those who have created this debacle of monetary terrorism have no choice but to continue inflating until the dollar becomes totally worthless. That will take down every single fiat monetary sub-system in the world. They are all inextricably connected and none will survive. When this will finally all play out is anyone's guess. Its like the "end of the world" biblical "no one knows the day or the hour", but it is absolutely inevitable. I have absolutely no doubts whatsoever that this is going to happen and end in a hyper-inflationary collapse. I can see how others may not be so sure, but for me the evidence is overwhelming and the cause and effect reality is absolute.


  95. Sheepneck,
    yes. Turd said we if we get through 101.50, then we are likely to go to 105.

  96. @Sheepneck: very plausible. $105 bbl would represent a 50% FIBO retracement from the $115 bbl to $95 bbl.

  97. "in the end, this is my blog and I have final say on content."

    As a small business owner and admirer of "serial entrepreneurs", I support Turds stance fully. It takes guts, skill and foresight to create anything successful. It takes none of those to ride someone's coatails and use their platform merely to play contrarian. It's parasitic and downright fiatish behavior. Sound money and sound comments will always catch my eye.


    You made a great point about emotions lessening the more knowledge is gained. I myself, in the past 4 years, have gone from scared to angry to empowered all because I refused to give up learning who/what/why/when/where. Once I knew there were options completely outside of the game I was all over it. It was like the lynchpin which put all of my thoughts these past many years that something just wasn't right. Thanks to Turd, ZH and many nameless others in pursuit of truth I feel for the first time in a long time, in control.

  98. EURUSD update:

    0327 GMT [Dow Jones] The EUR/USD extends its gains on persistent broad USD selling, triggering stop-loss buying orders around 1.4210 (above Thursday's high of 1.4206), says a senior dealer at a major Japanese trust bank. The EUR/USD is at 1.4228 from an earlier low of 1.4125. The pair may rise to 1.4250 later in the day, he says.

  99. @CD

    Actually I only see the USD strength as a very short term phenomenon that will happen at some time in the next 2 years due to a euro collapse.

    I expect it will happen sooner rather than later, and will only last maybe a few weeks or months at most.

    But it will be significant enough to make it worth waiting for. Maybe 20% upside?

    For me, a move like that is very, very significant.

    I often short the dollar, and have only recently been long, and am not all in by any stretch.

    Both US and EU are disasters, but the EU will crash first due to not being able to agree on printing euros or how to distribute them, so the PIIGS that need devaluation to survive won't get it in time.

  100. @ CD

    p.s. I am also a die hard contrarian, so love to go against the grain.

    I'll often play devil's advocate too, a trick I learned many years ago from a seasoned old trader who used to grill me to see if I really knew why I had a certain position and could back it up, or if I was just spouting what I heard everyone else say.

  101. Prize Fighter said...
    Thanks to Turd, ZH and many nameless others in pursuit of truth I feel for the first time in a long time, in control.

    A profound and beautiful thing you said there. For me, there is no higher calling than the pursuit of truth. Thanks !!

  102. @huma - THX. Disagree, but understand, and reasoning makes sense, if correct.

    But unless a) you have something keeping steady value for your dollars until then, and b) XAU does not increase by more than 20% until then, you are still losing money...

    As long as you're keeping your eyes and ears open, good luck.

  103. HJ - I'd like to add my $0.02 on hyper-inflation/currency collapse. If one studies the history of central banks and begins to understand the history of fiat currencies, you can see that hyper-inflationary collapses are a very common occurrence. When I first started down the rabbit hole by reading The Creature From Jekyll Island in '05, I realized it was quite possible that the US is on that trajectory. Six years later and now I am certain of it.

    What we don't know is when it will happen but we have many countries that have recently had currency collapses. Argentina, Germany, Zimbabwe and going back a few more years, the US when the first non-backed fiat failed: The Continental in 1775. Fiat collapse seems to be pretty normal and if you believe many authors, planned.

    Just because a currency collapses, doesn't mean society collapses. It only gets bad for a year or so. Then the new currency is rolled out. Usually from some other corrupt group of bankers and the fun starts all over again!

    PMs are where you have to be during these transitions. Study up on the phenomenon and you will see we are in the middle of it now. Might take a few more weeks, might take 5 more years. My bet is we'll start to see fireworks this fall to mid next year.

  104. There was talk a while back about a t-shirt to go with the big yellow hat... I had a go at the bumper stickers once, but how about a t-shirt?

    Get Your Turd T-Shirts Here!

    I know, between this and spreadsheets I really should find something better to do :)

  105. humahuaca said...
    "Actually I only see the USD strength as a very short term phenomenon that will happen at some time in the next 2 years due to a euro collapse.'

    You see a dollar strength against the Euro as much as 20 %? I say quite possible as they both sink into worthless oblivion. You are absolutely not going to ever see gold cheaper, in the long term, in terms of the U.S. dollar or the Euro. Certainly not as cheap as you expect even in the short term, unless we have a repeat of 2008. I don't think they can engineer dollar strength against gold to that degree ever again. Too many know too much and the numbers are growing exponentially every day who do know whats going on.

  106. Hi everyone,
    Any advice would be much appreciated.
    I am becoming increasingly frustrated trying to make fiat in this market. I don't trade futures, and I am not sure I want to stay up half the night trading anyway. But futures seem like they might provide some nimbleness at night that I lack. My job also pulls me away from the terminal hours at a time. And then there is the manipulators making live difficult...

    It seems like most of the AG movement is after hours to early in the morning most days. I stayed in SLV calls last night, had a fair loss this morning, then decided to get out as it ran flatline all day.

    I'm not sure what instruments to trade that Turd's blog here provides guidance for without going long term. But I am not comfortable staying in AGQ or SLV overnight... What to do? Perhaps stick with the miners?

    I am not a newbie, but not a pro either. Spent thousands on option classes, blown out my trading account twice. My emotions still get the best of me. I take profits too quickly and stay in losers a bit too long still. I'd just like to make some of that "School of Hard Knocks tuition" back now that I have half a clue how the markets work...

  107. @ HJ

    Here's another video that will give you background of all fiat money

  108. The Bin Laden bounce in the dollar is done. Thank god.

  109. This comment has been removed by the author.

  110. @ben

    I fully expect another 2008, but worse.

    I suppose extend and pretend could work, and it could definitely work another 2 or 3 years, but I really don't think so.

    @ CD

    I'll adapt. I don't expect mad max, just a serious depression. I won't go hungry, although I could stand to lose about 30 lbs if it gets to that.

  111. Test - I changed my google, but somehow I have a blogger profile instead - so updated that - thanks Eric

  112. @dd

    I don't think the dollar bounce was bin laden at all, I think it was anticipation of end of QE2 combined with euro problems (greece).

    Suddenly consensus seems that QE will either not end, or even if it does, rates will not go up.

    That's my read anyway.

    I do think the bounce is over. Until greece hits the fan again that is.

  113. Back above $38. No other movt elsewhere.
    Indian MCX just opened.

  114. Dr. Jerome,

    Sounds to me like you need to be a conservative investor and not attempt day trading. I for one, do not day trade at all, or do options and futures. I do not have the expertise nor the temperament to do either. I only have physical and have a few miners, and occasionally trade out of the dogs into better prospects as they appear.

    I do not understand this options thing near enough to even try doing them. Even with the turds explanation, so much is implied, in terms of experience and meaning in the terminology, that I am still lost as to how to step by step do what turd and others do here seemingly so successful.

    I would have to be taken by the hand and given step by step instructions with many questions along the way by Turd. And, that's not going to happen. So, until I have a total complete knowledge and understanding of the basics and someone to coach me personally, I won't even attempt it.

    I am fortunate, in that I started investing in PM's in earnest ten years ago at the exact bottom. I have done so well, I need not take any risk to stack-em up as so many of the "johnny come lately" must do to catch up. I hope you are also fortunate enough to be also in that position.

    Best of luck to you sir.

  115. Depending on strength of move, the Daily pivot may move up quickly to 37.80

  116. Doc J

    I find the extreme volatility of silver just ramps up the fear and greed on me too much, makes me make bad decisions. Might consider choosing an underlying vehicle that dials down the vol a tad. Gold? Start trading GLD or UGL instead. You might come out better.

  117. @ H
    The shirts awesome man - nice work!

  118. JoeKa - put in a stop-loss at the $37.5 level in case we get a hit when I am asleep - hope if that does happen, I can buy back in cheaper.

    Anyone notice that gold is in backwardation?
    June gold = 1525.9
    October gold = 1523.7

    I have both - have to exit the gold by May 31 to avoid being called to buy.

    in other news, my yen has gone back to being +

  119. Personally I just don't like options a whole lot. The premiums seem to high. I like futures where you get all the profit. HOWEVER you need a real nice sized nut to start so you have room to maneuver and you want to be careful to limit your losses. Made some big mistakes a few times. I started at $20k but losses made them freeze my account (noob as I was) but funded another 20k in time for the big silver run. Despite losing half of that - and Turd saved me some more losses - I am not at $90k+ from a $40k investment. Hope to be higher soon and take some out to buy more physical

  120. For all you day-traders out there please watch the 55 Day Moving Average as we go into a holiday weekend...there has been a consistent theme of big moves towards it, or through it, and away from it since I have been watching it (Aug 2007).

    The sell off early this US morning, GMT afternoon yesterday concided with spot silver touching the 55DMA....and down she went as I suspect the algos piled in.

  121. Yes I had moved the stop to 37.53 from the earlier 37.35...because it has tested it and bounced right back up to where it is now.

    I will only shift to 37.80 (or whatever the new Daily pivot will be) upon retest after this latest move above 38.

    I see the test is now in progress.

  122. Dr. Jerome,

    I share your frustration. I've thought about options on futures, although I don't know what the hours of those options exchanges are, or if the minis are optionaable, so I haven't gotten very far on my research. Forex is the other alternative that is obvious to me.

  123. Kurt

    Yeah, that's a good point for Chris or anyone. Once you go into Blogger, then whatever profile you have there, I think trumps whatever is in your google profile. Plus, your blogger profile is the only place I ever got a picture (avatar) to come through properly to these comments. My one in my google profile never worked.

  124. fortunately I rarely come across or read comments offensive, however if T.F. finds such comments inappropriate for this blog I suggest he start using the "tough love' policy that he most likely used with his children...however in this case "BAN" said people from this blog permanently as punishment for their immaturity etc as they hardly deserve the positive influence and fundamentals of such a wonderful site...nuf said...other than grow up and cut the I'm first, second or turd bullcrap! We're all living in extremely serious and consequential times and each of us deserve the best of our individual selves and each other for the betterment and enrichment for all from this school of Turdism we are presently enrolled and involved in.

  125. JoeKa said...
    Depending on strength of move, the Daily pivot may move up quickly to 37.80

    Hey, Joe. I've seen pivot points on charts, but no idea how to use them. Do they relate to Fib retracements? Can you give a 1-3 sentence summary or point me to a title? Or tell me to Google it (no problem with that).


    Jim M.

  126. Interesting....China Gold Imports to surge

    (sorry if it doesn't link, still can't paste a link for the life of me, having to still manually type...grrr)

    Hope everyone has a great holiday weekend!

  127. Silver chart looks like a fat cup N' handle pattern.

  128. @S Roche -- very interesting, and true -- both of the recent drops (5/11 and yesterday) happened to have been at the 55DMA. But it begs the question, why did not much happen when we crossed it just before Turd's bottom #1.

    In any case, the first drop was $7+ and took 10 days to recover. Yesterday's ~$2.50 lasted 24 hours.

    Is it just me, or do we have a (tentative) support around 37.8?

  129. Dr.J I had a similar experience. I lost some money in a company once and was bound and determined to make it back in that same damned company. Chased that youknowhat all over the place. Insanity! Then it dawned on me one day that profit was profit and the bottom line didn't care where I made it. Basically, don't get married to any one position because at the end of the day, fiat is fiat and silver is silver. Maybe you're too close to silver. Buy more physical, stop losing money, and trade something you're not emotionally attached to.

    I may be way off. Just throwin it out there.

  130. "trade something you're not emotionally attached to"

    OMG that sounds like great advice. That's going on a sticky note on my compuer. Thx Prize Fighter

  131. Hey Jim. Yes I use Pivots to determine entry/exit points. They are especially useful in forex, of which XAGUSD is part of and which is what I trade (like Pailin). I've also started to use the Chande Kroll stop as a form of confirmation.

    I tend to goto Daily pivot as its usually more conservative. Last night Schoolofhardknocks said he uses the H5 which provides higher up pivots (not always) but we're basically on the same page.

    Here's just one link to Pivot strategy:

  132. @Prize Fighter
    Great Advice - "Buy more physical, stop losing money, and trade something you're not emotionally attached to."

  133. CD,

    If I knew that I'd be typing from my 200ft yacht...

    Seriously, I am seeing some patterns and back-testing them and when they make more sense I will publish them for review.

  134. Thx, JoeKa. I'll check out the link. Tomorrow. :-)


  135. @Rui: a poster named Kiwi mentioned this yesterday and provided this link.

  136. G'night JoeKa

    Have fun chatting with yourself overnight :)

  137. Oh btw, gidday Kiwi steve, where the heck are you mate? Are you on the board?
    Would be nice if you could update us on your chartings.


  138. @humahuaca (2 parts)

    I'll often play devil's advocate too, a trick I learned many years ago from a seasoned old trader who used to grill me to see if I really knew why I had a certain position and could back it up, or if I was just spouting what I heard everyone else say.

    Part 2
    @humahuaca you said

    I fully expect another 2008, but worse.

    I suppose extend and pretend could work, and it could definitely work another 2 or 3 years, but I really don't think so.


    I have been Chewing on this why I think that we will not have a repeat of 08' in PM's.

    I got slaughtered in 08' in Physicals - only because I sold them - and bought prep stuff - makes me sick when I think that I sold 100oz bars for $900 that I paid $1700-$1800 - and what they would be worth now - If I only knew what I knew now.

    2008 crisis again only worse - I say sure - but I think that it will only have a mild short term effect on PM's.

    Part of the End of July 08 PM Crisis was - from what I heard - was that Bear Sterns - had a HUGE, HUGE short position - in either the Dollar or Silver. That is the main reason that Silver was demolished like it was, the damage was long term. Gold rebounded nicely in 6 months you could have exited with only a small loss, if you bought at the peak (in Physical).

    I don't see a repeat of the effect or magnitude of 2008. People are getting "numb" to the weekly global crises -

    Think about what we have seen since March of 08.

    NUMB I say NUMB. Maybe shell shocked is a better term.

    Crisis and Circuses ( and next Generation iProducts )

  139. @Jim: here's another nice link on pivot trading

    Honestly I wish Kiwi #2 (kiwisteve) would post here more. We'd all benefit I think. ;)

  140. Yoni, shell shocked describes it well.

  141. Anyone, to post a link in html, try bracketing the link this way:

    <a href="">Along the Watchtower</a>

    Doing it this way you should get:
    Along the Watchtower

    or simpler:

    <a href="http://www.yourlink here.html">Your Link Name Here</a>

    would render:
    Your Link Name Here

    Hope this helps. Nighty night!

  142. It's really what I had to do. Have had my fair share of dumb, impulsive moves. The story was different but the move was the same. TA told me no, but my heart said yes! BUY! ALL IN! THIS IS IT! Buzzzz. Wrong again ding-dong. Buying physical is a better strategy for me. Zero counter-party risk is big for me. I have trust issues.

  143. Thanks silverisgold. Was trying to figure that out! :)

  144. @JoeKa
    Thanks for the these pivot point links!
    The light just went on for me - the missing piece I been looking for!
    I'll have to wrap my head all the way around this and paper trade a few to get some real world feel for it. But I'm certain that this is exactly what I've been looking for and not finding. YES!!!

    I'm off to read and scribble for a few hours until I have digested all.

    I'll be back to ask question or two after that if you don't mind?
    But first I'll do my homework.

    Have a good day!

  145. In '08 I would actually just pull out a couple of gold coins just to hold on to, to give me some strength as I was getting creamed in my oil stocks.

    All in all, I think I battled through OK. If you take calendar 08-09 combined, I have the S&P down something like 20%, while my accounts that I manage were up 14%. Don't know what my physical did. Didn't keep track. It just sat there. Might have been my finest hour.

    On that note, I'm definitely hitting the sack. My gut tells me I'll wake up to higher PM's tomorrow.

  146. Took a trip into town today, bought 2 oz. of the yellow metal. Its been several months since I bought, use to pay $50 over spot, I was too busy to shop around at my usual coin shop and had to pay $80 over spot. I'll never feel bad about turning in my FRN's but, what premium's are you all paying now?

  147. Oops, just saw the silver chart. Maybe not higher tomorrow! See! this is why I don't trade silver. :D

  148. My local has $60 on Maples and Krugerands, $80 Buffalos and Eagles. I love those Buffs but $60 for .9999 Maples is hard to pass.

  149. This comment has been removed by the author.

  150. GO TO BED ERIC!

    I'm gonna Fedex the cane!

  151. Kool it works too! (thanks)

    w/ver agnatio

  152. Thanks Prize! I Don't feel too bad then. I'd love to find a Buffalo out there, none in sight at the coin stores. Good luck!

  153. Umm hmm?
    Well a page did is subjective ? right??

  154. @Tesla: right on buddy. Sure I'll try to help if I can. I'm no expert! :P

    Meanwhile pls also read this from Minyanville:

    Traders Overwhelmed by Conflicting Indicators: Get Back to Basics

    Yay! My first successful hyperlink post! Happy Happy!
    The silence is deafening. :\

  155. This comment has been removed by the author.

  156. Morning all. I'm awake properly now after my sleep posting

    Lightened my positions a little at 38.07, although sold the wrong one as I was sleepy! Still in green though.

    Like to see if we hit 38 again in the next half hour. Good luck!

  157. Hell Hello Turd et al.

    Been lurking way to long probably been four or five months now... Broke down, signed up for a gmail account, who knows maybe ill be able to add a witty comment here or there....

  158. First step ditch the ryan and think of something original - dobocop it is...

    WTF EE needs to do a little better if they wanna attack tonight

  159. And this just up article on Bloomberg which validates everything our Cap'n Turd and a select others have been saying:


    --Earlier collapse in some commodity prices now looks like false alarm
    --China will avoid hard landing; U.S. recovery soon to accelerate
    --Major banks already lifting outlook for commodity prices in 2H

    As fears of a downturn in commodity prices fade, so too are fears that the Aussie's rally is over.

    Only a couple of weeks ago, the world looked like a different place.

    The price of silver was diving 35% and a two-and-a-half year rally in most commodity prices appeared to be at an end.

    The fact that the Chinese economy was slowing down, the U.S. economy was remaining weak, and central banks in many other countries were starting to raise interest rates, just reinforced the impression that as the global recovery weakened, so would demand for commodities.

    Now, it all looks like a false alarm.

    Or, at least an alarm that was far too loud.

    Yes, China is slamming on its monetary brakes and its central bank is making a concerted effort to prevent inflation.

    But, the economy is not slowing anywhere as fast as feared and worries about a hard landing now look misplaced.

    Tracking Chinese growth has been a tricky business at the best of times but Capital Economics has just published research showing that its proxy for Chinese activity indicates growth of about 9% this year. And the paper notes, given a recent rise in bank lending, an upturn in activity can be expected soon.

    The rest of the global picture isn't so bad either.

    Yes, the U.S. economy isn't exactly roaring ahead but a recent dip in crude oil prices, improvements in the labor market, and a rise in credit, all point to better growth showing through as the summer wears on.

    Higher global interest rates certainly are an issue but there are signs that few central banks are rushing into sharp moves.

    In other words, the global economy probably won't be slowing as fast as expected and the demand for commodities won't be falling as much as initially feared.

    So why the nasty fall in silver?

    This can probably be put down to the typically volatile performance of many commodity markets, which are often driven largely by speculation, rather than base demand, through a handful of large companies.

    This lack of transparency leads to "lumpy" moves such as those seen at the start of May.

    Some major banks, including Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have already been quick to recast their outlook.

    Instead of looking for a downturn, they now see the decline in commodity prices as a corrective phase and forecast more gains in the second half of the year as physical demand improves.

    For the Aussie and other commodity currencies, this will certainly be good news.

    Australia's direct trading links with China will certainly be an additional large positive, ensuring that the Australian currency's recent correction in line with commodity prices also comes to an end.

  160. Ncot - how did you make out with trade purchase you made yesterday? I remember reading that you jumped in just as we started to get hammered on...

  161. @Ryan/Dobo: be careful what you wish for.

    Welcome to Watchtower.
    Enjoy your stay.
    Leave out cookies and milk for the nighthawks.

  162. Been Studying up the May Day Silver Massacre and last Thursday's AM attack (5/26).

    What is truly scary is the small amount of volume over one hour period that it took to cause a $6 or close to 10% drop. It took a lot more juice to move the markets $1.03 on 5/26 than $6 on the May day massacre.

    Something to consider going into this end of the month holiday weekend.

    Have a lookies Here !

  163. I hear ya Joe
    Turds post summed it up nicely earlier , the smackdowns and FUBM's have become so routine lately its no point getting too worked up about em.

    I ve been following SGS and the TURD for awhile and thought I had better send a shout out and a thank you their way.

  164. A lot less buying at $49 than at 38.00,there is risk holding over the weekend but we are not overextended like we were at 49

  165. Volumes really light right now in both gold and silver, wouldn't be surprised to see a smash down to $1516 in gold before the night is in.

  166. JoeKA - wow. They really DO think we are all utter, mindless fools. I feel soiled and insulted in my intelligence by that BBerg piece.

  167. Why silver dived in Summer of 2008:

    "... Here are the facts. As of July 1, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 6,199 contracts of COMEX silver (30,995,000 ounces).

    As of August 5, 2008,two U.S. banks were short 33,805 contracts of COMEX silver (169,025,000 ounces), an increase of more than five-fold.

    This is the largest such position by U.S. banks I can find in the data, ever. Between July 14 and August 15th, the price of COMEX silver declined from a peak high of $19.55 (basis September) to a low of $12.22 for a decline of 38%."

  168. @JoeKa
    The pivot point complex ( frames things nicely on my chart in all time frames based on a 1 period - I noticed I could also enter 0.5 periods for example and get a 12 hour period and so on. I believe you are using something similar (less than 1 day) no?

    Oh #2 down it goes!

  169. wow. silver beat down, again. i'm with turd. who cares, it'll be up soon!

  170. How low do we go???? any guesses?

  171. Raid time, same time as last night.

  172. @Joeka
    blythe is playin games again..wonder when this farce's gonna end??probably if all the contracts beg to be delivered!1

  173. looks like they be setting it up just like last night... 37.50 does it hold? looks like it did for now

  174. @Dobocop, wrote a full reply on my phone then lost it!

    I bought in big at 38.42, then a few auto trades I forgot about at high 37s.

    The biggy is the one I tried to close earlier at 38.14 but as I was half asleep, I closed out one I opened at 37.69 for 38.07.

    I'll take a hit on the big one, just want to minimize it!

    Bought some in the high 36's which I sold too early at low 37's but it adds up.

    As I type, we've gone below our 37.50 mark.. not good. hang on, 37.70...

    I'm mainly trying to lighten my positions early today, so I can buy in lower on a raid.

    I spreadbet here in the UK, leveraged, go short or long margin based but no tax. My SB company is hiking up their silver margin from Sunday from 1% to 8%, so its cheap for me at the moment, The increase will only apply to positions opened from Sunday.

    Therefore, I want to get in a decent size position at as low a possible average by close of play today. Obviously, I'm going long!

  175. I've tried the netdania charts but they were quite sluggish on my browser..

    Not that I can make out any signals .... I just like watching them go up and down... I prefer up though...

    I need a coffee...

  176. Ncot- well done- nicely played

  177. They can manipulate these markets all they want.
    I don't mind it at all.

    There, I said it. Why? Simple.

    For a paper trader, with patience and timing, you can continue making fiat to buy more phyz and if you accumulate enough fiat, property.

    For a phyz accumulator, you'll get multiple opportunities to buy more and average your holding price.

    We already know the Keynesian experiment will fail. So, this is a WIN-WIN.

    Class dismissed.

  178. I wish to applaud the move to draw a line in the sand regarding tolerance of demeaning and profane comments. Its not that we as individuals can't handle it, or stand up for ourselves, but that kind of trash talk quickly reduces the relevance and usefulness of the medium which it occupies. ZeroHedge, for instance, has incredibly useful articles, and largely worthless commentary. It very much reminds me of the AOL chatrooms circa 1997, when every "leet" hacker had a "prog" and would "TOS" you if you typed anything they didn't like. On ZeroHedge, posters will attempt to diffuse the best thought out posting with zingers like "zzz.. Conformist biatch" or something similar, to prove their alpha maleness. Even on websites with simple functions, such as report and thumbs up features, like Marketwatch, are less of a cesspool. Moderation here would be even better.

    As to John's questions as to what events are going to transpire, I believe that while we can debate both what and when, it's hard to deny that a perfect economic storm's brewing. It used to be that such subjects could only be found in books, or late night AM radio. These days, I don't have to go looking for the bad news. Local news, national news, internet, radio, all of them regularly feature stories about national debt, reserve currency status, food inflation, etc. The problem is that most people can see all these stories, dots if you will, but won't or can't connect them all. Those here and on similar sites can for the most part.

    I also don't believe that whatever collapse happens will be the end of things. Germany, Argentina, and other places have gone through this and gotten over it. Also, don't underestimate the value of the American masses to the rest of the world. Even in the worst case scenario, Americans are valuable as consumers and manpower for armies. I doubt the U.S. would be allowed to fall as easily as some of the European countries that, unfortunately, few seem to care about. The Belarussans just lost over a third of their purchasing power. So that you don't got through that same outcome, converting some dollars to PMs is a necessity.

  179. Thanks Dobo, but I'm still worse off than if I'd just closed half at 38.80 like my brain told me or even sat on my hands and not bought so big at 38.40..

    Everyday is a lesson, one day I'll practice what I've learnt!

    Still, currently lighter than I was so if there's another takedown I have more breathing space and the margin to BTFD...(I've even taught my wife that phrase!)

  180. @NCOT: 10 Primary rules of trading (according to me):

    1. Don't lose money but if you do, analyse why you did
    2. Cut losses short, let profits run (depending on your strategy at the time)
    3. Money Mgmt
    4. Carefully consider your Long/Short sizings
    5. Patience
    6. Patience
    7. Patience
    8. Patience
    9. Patience
    10. Patience

  181. @JoeKa

    Sorry to be a pest ...was wondering if you use a full period (day) or a fractional period for you pivot calculation. You mentioned it moving up last night when it was pegging the RSI right before it flushed out.

    Thanks in advance!

  182. I hear ya... BTFD and EE are terms we sling around the house these days as well. My wife asked today if we should buy some more "phyzz" i just about shit my pants... Silvergoldsilver is the blog she likes to follow....

  183. @Tesla: gonna give you a nice tip to save you the hassle of calculation.

    Go here:

    Why re-invent the wheel? :)

  184. well said joeka. i want sumone to kick my ass really i fucked up on all those

  185. The POSX is weak ATM... if she fails at 75, tonight may be a good night for our precious.

  186. JoeKa thanks buddy, learning the patience... been happy with that. Only a little fussed as need to get my cheaper long positions in place by today.

    The one that gets me 'let profits run'.. when do you know when to take them.

    When it starts reversing, hard to tell if its a pullback or proper drop.

    I've used trailing stops to lock in profits, but always get annoyed when they trigger a sell and the price goes back up...

    But I'm learning each day and as I said yesterday the support on here is a big help. Even as Trud said, he looked at the drop and said 'whatever'.. I know I wasn't too calm, but I wasnt as panicked as I would have been a few months back...

    Also, I have to say, after I told my wife what I lost in the Jan-Feb drop, I thought she'd go crazy... I made it back by end of April.. then lost it again and she was more supportive than I could ever have imagined. She has more faith in me than I do sometimes!

    Anyway.. lets stay over 38!!

  187. @Tesla: to complement this I also use Chande Kroll volatility stop as a cross-check.

    Netdania does not offer CK as a study overlay I'm afraid.

  188. Today's bargain basement buy level: 36.25. Got my order in. Come to daddy.

  189. NCOT said: Also, I have to say, after I told my wife what I lost in the Jan-Feb drop, I thought she'd go crazy... I made it back by end of April.. then lost it again and she was more supportive than I could ever have imagined. She has more faith in me than I do sometimes!


    You've got a precious gem in your hands.
    Don't ever let her go.

  190. @tomo: no problem. So do I.