Thursday, May 5, 2011

Guaranteed Silver Support Level

I've spent the night poring over charts.
I've dried out 3 sharpies and broken two rulers.
My printer has blown through its warranty and is out of toner.
I'm existing on nothing coffee, Skittles, No-doze, amphetamines and meth.
And I've finally found guaranteed support for silver!

The charts clearly show that in the area between $0.00 and $1.00, silver looks great! I pulled up some 6,132,000-hour charts and found that silver has never been valued less than dust or navel lint. It has always retained value! So get ready with your orders to buy in the area around 50 cents. IF that area is breached, look to buy some more around $0.20. Use a tight stop at -$0.10, though. IF silver blows through there...

In all seriousness, this just a joke. At this point, God Himself could come down and declare that only physical silver can guarantee you entry into Paradise and still the algo-driven douchebags would be selling. Of course, they sold their souls long ago so, why would they care anyway? Amazingly, the ECB announces permanently low rates, jobless claims are incredibly bad, the POSX is in the shitcan and the entire Comex only has enough silver to settle 6500 contracts and yet silver is down another $2. All I can do is laugh. This is what sucks about trying to trade the PMs. You can see everything clearly and be 100% correct in your fundamental analysis but the Forces of Darkness can be so powerfully aligned against you that it simply doesn't matter. We are right however and, in the end, sanity will return. Until then...

Screw em and, for crying out loud, don't sell your physical metal. If you're really worried about the price at which you can convert it back into fiat, then call Lind-Waldock and buy yourself some puts. Here's a link that tells you how to do it:
In the meantime, kick back and watch the action. Here are some charts that give you some levels to watch.

It is Cinco de Mayo so maybe you should take the rest of the day off. If you need to make a few extra dollars to cover your margin calls, you could go out and mow lawns around your neighborhood as you can be assured that the regular crew is on holiday today. If not, kick back and maybe nail a shot of Patron every hour on the hour until none of this matters anymore.

Hang in there. TF


  1. Thank you Turd Ferguson, we love you!

  2. I need advice on AGQ. I bought shares through my retirement account, so no leverage and no immediate need for the money. My average purchase price is $311.75. Should I wait this out or sell now. I am new at this, so I did not buy a large block, only 55 shares, which puts me down about $5,384. Any advice is appreciated.

    Note: I have been a lurker for months now. Just trying to learn.

  3. I hope silver physical holders have already done so or are considering swapping for gold physical now that the G/S ratio looks to be climbing back above 40/1 from 32/1 or so. Remember that less than 2 years ago it was above 80/ the panic in price dropping can be offset if you play the ratio. Something to consider anyway.

  4. Damned Crimex bastards. Thanks for the insight, Turd.

  5. I am planning on trading some physical gold into physical silver today to take advantage of the GSR changing. Then I can swap it back later for more gold than I have now.

    Can anyone tell me, do coin dealers to a straight trade, or does the gold come in at the "buy" price and you get the silver at the "Sell" price - in order words, do coin dealers charge a spread when doing a physical-to-physical conversion?

  6. Several weeks ago, 36 seemed to be the magic number that the Cartel needed to cap silver at. I am thinking they will try to breach that point bring it down to at least 34.

  7. Turd,

    first congratulations on your blog, it's wonderful.

    The problem is that you are forward thinker. You already see everything clearly but most investors don't. And we had another margin hike yesterday, this also had an effect. Finally silver went up fast, makes sense to go fown fast temporarily. Longer term, I totally agree with you.

    All the best

  8. Beautiful Turd, thanks, it delivered the necessary therapeutic laugh.

  9. Thanks, Turd, for your thoughts on support levels on Ag and the other commods. I don't think I'll wait for "zero" on Ag, though. I am going to buy more Ag today regardless. Averaging down.

    In November 2010 an appraisal told me my beachfront house in California was going to depreciate by 12% in 2011. I asked the top real estate guy in my area if that was true and he told me it was. I was gobsmacked and in disbelief that my biggest asset was losing at least $1,200 PER DAY. I bit the bullet and sold my house to a very rich person in 3 weeks for 50% of it’s ‘value’ in 2006.

    I then spent two months researching what kind of ‘traditional’ investments I could put my money into that would bring me income and grow my wealth.
    All of them were essentially IOU’s. Bonds, Munis, NNN real estate deals that paid 4-8% before taxes. Stock speculating didn’t seem much like an investment, more like a rigged casino.

    Plenty of investment advisors wanted to take my $$ and manage it for me..No way I thought. If the advisors were so smart how come they were still working at age 55?
    I decided to take personal responsibility for my future. So I got a GM account and bought physical silver at around $37.75 or so. I started reading Turd and other blogs and am learning the ropes…..slowly.

    I watched my silver grow to an upside of $800k last week and now it’s heading back to or below where I bought it. I’m not panicking that I made a big mistake for several reasons:
    #1. I wanted to preserve my capital for the medium to long term and definitely am not trading in paper to make some quick or slow $$$.
    #2. As I see it, the fundamentals are the same as when I got rid of my funny money and purchased silver. Nothing has changed except the price I can get for it if I was stupid enough trade it back into fiat.
    #3. The fools in charge of our govt. are ruining the dollars value and they will continue to do so.
    #4. The average Chinese and Indian guy looks at their paper currency and wants to get rid of it to buy metals cause they don’t trust the paper.
    There’s at least 2.5 billion of them and they are getting more money in their hands every day.
    Their countries are flourishing financially and the USA isn’t. They want many of the same consumer items things we do, but the difference is they don’t use credit cards and equity in their house to buy it.
    Even if all the big manipulators drive the markets up and down that guy on the street in China and India still wants to hold PM rather than paper.
    I can’t outthink or out manipulate the big players but I can stick to my plan to buy and hold silver so that’s what I’ll do.

    Fortunately, I kept enough $$ in a local bank to last me, my wife and young kids for a year or two.

    I’m really grateful to be able to read Turds blog and all the comments of you fine folks who know so much more about this than I do.

  11. "...below there 0..."

    Oh Man I hope that was the Meth talkin'


  12. Pablo - IMHO you ARE DOING THE RATIO SWAP WRONG. Under 45/1 is the time to swap your silver FOR gold. When the ratio is above 70/1 you swap Gold FOR Silver.

    Unless you have logic you'd like to share....please.

  13. beck, I got in on AGQ at $324. Down big time too. Problem is that since it's a double mover to silver, it will actually require a higher silver price to get back to $311.75. Do the math.

    I wouldn't sell if I were you. I'm keeping my shares and waiting. I have a cash account, so no margin worry for me. Just need to wait... but it's tough seeing my account go down substantially for the past few days.

    Of course, you do what's comfortable for you. Silver could just keep going down.

  14. Buy physical. This has officially moved me out of the paper(Futures, Options) game. I made a boatload of money in the last 6 months riding SLV options like they were rocket ships. Time to take the house's money and walk away as quickly as possible. :)

    Buying physical is a great reward.

  15. @everybody
    All of you that are feeling pain. Let me tell you a little of my pain. Several times I've been very much on the right side of the trade and chickened out and lost huge by leaving money on the table or even taking a loss right before a reversal.

    1. Was massively short XAU @1415 on Jan 02 when it was in there around 1410-1430. I was very worried it would run to new highs 1450, etc. I sold closed for a very small loss @ 1416.50. Then the rest of the month is ran down, all the way to 1308 (as many of you know). If I'd just caught 50% of that move, I would have cleared a cool $70k. Being unemployed, that sure would hvae been nice.

    2. Late January, I was hugely long XAU around 1426, it bounced up to 1434, tried to get cute and flipped my long for a quick profit and took the same as a short. It had been rangebound there for several days. Unfortunately that was the day it finally broke back through 1440 and kept running, to where we are now 1500+. Again if I'd gotten just 50% of that move ca. $70k to me. Instead, the fast move (no stop/loss) wiped out my trading account in seconds. Again, I was on the right side of the trade (long), at a great price (1326) and totally effed it up.

    Just wanted to give some perspective. I have no idea if this helps anybody, but at least you know you're not alone.

  16. This was well coordinated obviously....they also have as their next hammer a nice dollar rally to keep this trade under their fist.....but if anyone thinks that this game is over then you need to get out NOW!!!. This correction is not only good but it was DESPERATELY needed. Without out this the longer term highs in the paper trade were in jeopardy and you would have been in Mad Max mode by August..... Now we have another year... This is a grand Supercycle event and the Kress Cycle gives all of you another year in this game before you realize you are all bugs on a

  17. "Coffee, Skittles, No-doze, amphetamines and meth"?

    Oh, the humanity! Turd, you should really lay off the Skittles. Bad for you.

  18. I hope most here are primarily physical holders of PM's. Then it's easy, here is your daily mantra:

    When i started accumulating, I had a very difficult lengthy discussion with my wife on "Why"? In the end she said I trust you. I told her don't even look at the daily price, we are in this for the long haul ( minimum 10 years mot likely).

  19. Arkel,

    Thanks, I will wait it out, too.

  20. Turd,

    Meth is for amateurs. Cocaine mixed with red Bull is what all the cool kids are doing!

  21. Viva la RAZA! Puñeta!!

    Toro en PLATA hasta la muerte!!

  22. @Beck

    I feel your pain on AGQ only at higher price and more shares; I am a genius, so listen to me!

    I am sitting tight but it is ultimately your call alone to make. There is my free advice. Please remember you get what you pay for and this was free.

  23. Turd,

    You make kissing my ass goodbye seem like so much fun, I don't even notice the pain ...

  24. This comment has been removed by the author.

  25. You better not let me down on that guaranteed floor, Turd. I've read your disclaimer, but I'm going to rely on your advice anyway.

  26. @daniel

    Let's say gold stays around $1500, Silver would have to go $33 for the GSR to hit 45 and to $22 for the GSR to hit 70, and I do not think that is going to happen. So since I do not have much more fiat to purchase physical I plan to convert some gold into silver at GSR of around 40-45. Then when silver resume it's upward march I can convert back to gold when the GSR go to 25 or something. Let say I do this with 1 oz of gold. After the round trip i then have ~ 1.5 oz of gold.

    Do you not think this is correct?

  27. Buying and holding physical is the best way I can see to show how you feel about how things are being run. Let that be your statement. If enough of those concerned do this. eventually there will be no *real* gold or silver in the fiat markets at all. Then, perhaps, we'll start seeing a little more truth.

    I wasn't really planning to, but if the price comes down some more, I can't but help buying some more, holding some more...physical.

  28. @ beck
    I would not sell down here. That doesnt mean I am ready to buy. But I would not sell down here.

    How can you not nibble at some buys down here?
    Everyday this happens you should buy a little. Even if it is just 100 shares.

    If it is getting to painful, but some stink bids in and stop watching.

  29. How many will want to be long over the weekend considering last monday? I know thats not a valid argument, but in the mindset of the Keynesian... how will people reason coming the close of friday?

  30. I sure wish I understood swapping gold/silver.

    I'm sure NOT happy I bought a bunch of silver last week in the 46 level.

    I'm so slow at all this.

  31. Having read (and admired the guts and intelligence and generosity of) so many visitors to the Turdmeister's playground for so long - and having watched the charts this past week in particular - I'm glad I opted not to trade paper and ride the back of the bull. Nope, I merely keep stacking as best and when I can. But my thoughts are with you. I can't understand why the dollar bounced and the euro fell. It's not like we've begun to get our monetary policy under control. (In fact, in my not so humble opinion, it's out of control intentionally, but let's not go there.)

    Two words I've used frequently in these times:



    So I'll just continue to stay diversified. I am diversified in physical gold and silver and lead and copper and food and water and most of all - friends. As I watch the intentional collapse of the American economy and the "end of the Great Keynesian Experiment."

    From your friend,
    Ol' Michael
    "...paper is paper..."

    P.S. Daniel, why those SGR numbers? That is about double what I was thinking. At 45:1 or higher, I'd still be swopping Au for Ag.

  32. Pablo

    Couple weeks ago I swapped silver for gold with 33:1 and got an exchange of 33.5:1 Basically a $20. profit for the dealer per once.

  33. I sit tight on physical Silver. I used to day-trade, gamble on the indexes, gamble on sports. You name it: I had a system. I had "charts" to die for. moving averages, Fibonacci, candle-sticks etc etc. I could make a "chart" say what ever I wanted it to if I worked at it hard enough. The one thing I could never do was tell you what was going to happen in the next 60 seconds, especially in a rigged market.

    Many years ago a discovered that ALL markets are rigged for the little player.

    ALL charts and "systems" are a complete waste of time in a rigged market. People use them for comfort but they are still a waste of time.

    If you believe there is a shortage of Silver and that the price has been criminally kept low then just buy the stuff and wait.

  34. I'm a nobody but I would advise everyone who's playing with money they can't afford to lose to look here

    Another view from Ben Davies is here. There's also an interview discussing the report on King's site.

    I can't believe this beat down will stick, but Eric Jansen knows his stuff. After all, he was a buyer of Ag in 1999.


    This is Armstrong's paper "How and When" he gives unbiased analysis in this paper and its a great reminder to everyone with doubt on where is the primary trend is going.

  36. Tomorrow is NFP day, this could change the trend or send it even lower, we could see some high volatility. Perhaps the safest way for longs now is to exit and wait for a clear bottom, or break of the lower trendline or some significant market news that will stop the downtrend, to buy cheap again. At least wait for the margin hike effect to pass.

    This moment if you are out of the market you are happy as it drops, cause it presents opportunity to buy cheaper soon for the next leg up. Mexico bought 100 tones of gold couple of days ago, the main demand is till there, we are seeing a correction only.

  37. @HB. Good story. I am doing much the same thing.

    The most importand lesson a investor must learn:

    Nobody cares more about your money than you do. So take care of it yourself.

  38. Pablo

    Yes, there will be a spread in there on a swap.

  39. Adversity = Opportunity

    To illustrate the point, take a good look at Argentex today. I bought it under a buck, it's recently taken off but has been whipsawed by the broader decline in Ag and miners the past 2 weeks.

    They just released pretty nice news and have taken a 10% haircut so far today for their trouble. 8 meters of 470 gpt Ag + 1.64 gpt Au.

    With widespread panic now in effect, babies are getting tossed along with bathwater all over town. Do your homework and then catch a few just before they hit the ground.

    When they grow up, those kids will make you proud.

  40. FOAGQ-

    Just closed out my last batch of AGQ this morning....I bought it in mid-January, so it was still up 30%, but a week ago it was up %130 .....sigh. With my luck I've just sold it at the bottom.

    Didn't lose any principal, but I'm pretty much back at where I started the year....all this trading work and no gain to show for it....sigh.

    Still holding my pool account, but otherwise just sitting on the side waiting for the bottom.

    ver word "metil"... maybe a hint I should just get into physical?

  41. I'm in a similar boat as Beck.

    I would like to hold, but was planning on pulling out my money by the end of the summer.

    Here's the thing about holding. If we see a Comex default, won't AGQ collapse instead of recovering? I'm afraid of the fact that we might not see paper silver go up, perhaps ever again.

  42. Gold is making a bounce it seems, but silver isn't invited to the party. This is just 100% weird. All commodities down. ALL. Not even oats are up.

  43. Anyone know the downside to putting 100% down on a futures contract if you plan to stand for delivery? Seems you could get around premiums you pay to retail coin shops. Anyone know the costs associated with standing and taking delivery?

  44. The entire commodity complex is imploding people. Silver double topped, gold double topped, the rest is next, then the stock market.

    Keep your pirate treasure stash if you must, but protect your WEALTH. When they end QE2 at the end of June there will be a deflationary vortex prior to starting more QE.

  45. I was in AGQ at $75. Sold at $200 out of fear and watched it go to $380. I'm averaging in now in the low $200s

  46. Fleve, it's simple really:

    Each and every one of the worlds problems, especially the financial ones, are now cured.

    Mr. Obama said so.

  47. The latest CME report is out. Bizarre. OI is actually increasing, even on the MAY and JUN contracts. Not much, but that surprises--directionally. And front month JUL is up a huge 4800 contracts. Thoughts?

  48. I have more Silver than I do Gold, and I have more Gold than I do Silver. Swap? no thanks.

  49. Where are the major World central banks when we need them? None of these guys have any major Silver reserves. Won't be surprised to see reports of some Central banks accumulating precious metals during this downturn. But these reports always come out after a few months.

  50. Hi Turd, hi all.
    I'm not a real loorkers as I posted sometimes in the past.
    I'd like to say my opinion. I bought some silver paper here in Europe (Italy) when the post felt at 40$/oz only 50units of ETF Levereged Silver just to be in the "fight" now I'm waiting for the end of this dip to make an "all in" and buy really hundred of this ETF. In the meanwhile i'm watching the ratio gold/silver in 4 days it went from 1:32 to 1:40 another bit and I think to convert phisical gold (trough Goldmoney) in silver. This dip must come to an end and I think that none of us should be unready to take re-verse action.

    P.S.: I bouhgt 1 week ago some titles of AGQ... and yeah I have to wait but these are the rules of this "game" :)

    However: THANKS a lot to you TURD and TO ALL OF YOU because it's very important for neophites like me read a lot of opinion to create a personal one.

    Dave from Italy

  51. Let's say gold stays around $1500, Silver would have to go $33 for the GSR to hit 45 and to $22 for the GSR to hit 70, and I do not think that is going to happen. So since I do not have much more fiat to purchase physical I plan to convert some gold into silver at GSR of around 40-45. Then when silver resume it's upward march I can convert back to gold when the GSR go to 25 or something. Let say I do this with 1 oz of gold. After the round trip i then have ~ 1.5 oz of gold.

    PABLO - I hope only to educate you based on my own experiences of swapping G/S for years. Once one understands how to ignore USD$ value and begin thinking in terms of Ozs - the idea of swapping for more metal makes much more sense.

    The historic or avg ratio prior to the US going OFF the gold standard was around 35/1 (20/1 at time of nixon's removal from the standard)...some claim the total gold vs silver on the planet is 1/17 -

    But in the years since '71 the ratio has climbed steadily peaking at 100/1 and averaging above 50/1... the LOWEST the ratio has been in more than 30 years is what we just saw - 30/1 and it lasted just days before this sharp reversal. Yes your logic makes sense if you're betting on another reversal and the ratio further reducing to 25/1 (something unseen in over 30 years) But that might be too much of a stretch bet for me. I swapped above 75/1 all the way through 80/1 and now have completed my re-swaps at 32/1 - 40/1...and have thus doubled my stack a few times a over the years.

    Last thought: I was told several years ago silver is for making is for preserving it. This last 2 year silver run has confirmed that in shiny spades.

  52. beck

    As you can see from the comments and Turds posts over the last day or so, none of us have any idea where silver is going anymore. Your decision to bail out or hang tough depends entirely on your unique situation and temperament. How extended are you? Are these day after day losses eating at your guts? How will you feel if it gets even worse?When you feel "trapped" in a losing trade there is certainly a great liberating feeling that comes from just getting rid of the damn thing. No more being frozen like a deer in the headlighs. It feels awesome. Suddenly you become master of your own fate again. Even if you buy back in later at a higher price, at least you do it on your own terms.

  53. Just checked with my dealer in China (the branch is delivering weekly average of 40kg sivler bars), key message is buying is slowing down but still has 30kg this week, more importantly after premium to spot price rises to 10% in March, the manufacturer(one of the largest sivler bar manufacturers in the world, state-owned, namely Great Wall, good delivery member) promises not raise premium again till spot price rises to 11 yuan/gram, 1.69 USD. (no further tax payable required). This branch is one of dozen in the city (one of the richest per capita in PR China). Chinese retail buyers take physical only in most cases and the market is participated by individuals of net wealth exceeding 5million rmb as I know of.

  54. @Eric#1
    True words indeed :)

  55. I've been a buyer of physical silver for 4 yrs but a complete newby at trading....just started buying mining stocks 6 mos ago with no experience, also bought AGQ recently.
    Done got my ass kicked!

  56. I wanted to second another poster's thanks to William for his steadying comments last thread.
    He may have talked a few people off the ledge, or made them reconsider going up there in the first place.

  57. @George, agree whole-heartedly, it's the only way to stay sane if you can't handle the drama. Miners aren't cratering today, good sign but not getting sucked in just yet, I feel bargains galore around the corner. ...Blood in the streets...coming...patience,patience. Maybe a couple thousand of some more AGQ at 200 if we bounce along, any buyers there?

  58. Turd, this post is simply AWESOME! It made my morning. Thank you.

    On another note, I just checked and my ounces are still there

  59. Does anyone here remember the spring of '08 when silver fell from its +$20 high to $8 for a S/G ratio of +80/1... This is NOT unprecedented. Be smart - nobody goes broke selling some for profit...keeping a core position and having plenty of dry powder cash for the next confirmed rise. Good luck all.

  60. So Skittles ARE a gateway drug! Just as I suspected all along and confirmed by the great Turd!

    Just waiting to stack a higher here. Keeping a sharp eye... Steady at the helm... Waiting to lock phazers on target.

  61. Beck

    My stop loss (210) on AGQ just got taken out.

    It does feel good that I don't have to watch it anymore.

    It does not feel good that I bought in the 300s.

    It will feel even worse if this does turn out to be a bottom.

    Good luck to you

  62. What about purchasing some ZSL to hedge yourself if you are into AGQ already? Just to ride out the wave of volatility if you ultimately believe it will go up in the long run.

  63. But BE VERY CAREFUL if you're mowing lawns because you might run over one of those silver bars that are being tossed out with your mower blades... :-)

  64. @SoccerDad: yeah I think that 200$ for some AGQ it's interesting, it's the same price I got in my mind... hum I could place the order...

    Ratio gold/silver is 1:40,56 this is interesting too...

  65. Several have wondered today why the USDX is catching a bid- basically the Euro is falling and people are moving into the dollar. Trichet at his press conference this morning has left rates unchanged for now, and appears to be hinting that they will not raise rates later on, either. Apparently the market was counting on a stronger Euro and was pricing in a rate hike soon, so the Euro is falling and dollar is rising.

    But ask yourself just how far the dollar can rise? Turd told us the levels to look for so I am watching this as a major clue... make no mistake, this is a fire sale on PMs and we are about to get the mother of all entry points. Keep the faith and know that there is ALOT of fiat to be made here. I'm getting all giddy...

    When Turd calls it can we say it's 'Turds other bottom'? "I made a boatload on Turds bottom". "How nice for you, I made tons of cash on Turds other bottom". Nice.

  66. & 'Meth Man' still says you can dig it out of the ground for $5 bucks...

    So let's see...

    Dig it out of the ground for $5 bucks + SELL it at .50 cents...

    Sounds like a GOVERNMENT operation to me (which assures that there's a guaranteed PUT under this market at some point)!

  67. Uncle Ben pushed the "Crash Markets" button, 2 months early, to ensure that QE never ends.

    He is annoyed at everyone on the hill bitching about inflation and printing, and he is killing two birds with one stone - deflating commodities, and ensuring QE to the moon.

    We all know that QE can never end because the ponzi would collapse and the bankers would lose everything.

    We all know that this inflation needs to be dealt with or the masses will riot.

    I guess this is the plan they came up with.

  68. Also thanks to all those more experienced who share their wisdom and steadying words.

  69. Adversity = Adversity

    My friends, the fierce genius of the State just keeps on coming. I'm in awe of this helpful solution to the transportation challenges we face.

    Note how these Orwellian nutjobs refer to taxing you by the mile as an "Opportunity". And I suppose to them, it is: they're psyched for yet another opportunity to rape your ass, in the process of breaking down once proud, free people into moron debt peons:

    Obama floats plan to tax cars by the mile
    By Pete Kasperowicz - 05/05/11 07:45 AM ET

    The Obama administration has floated a transportation authorization bill that would require the study and implementation of a plan to tax automobile drivers based on how many miles they drive.

    The plan is a part of the administration's "Transportation Opportunities Act," an undated draft of which was obtained this week by Transportation Weekly.

  70. atlee,
    Have you ever seen anything go from outside the top to outside the bottom of the bollinger bands so quickly as silver has done?
    And one thing we know about the bands - the price can't stay outside the band for long!

  71. I'd like to second George's comment:

    If you believe there is a shortage of Silver and that the price has been criminally kept low then just buy the stuff and wait.

    It really can be that simple. What goes down must go up. Hold on to your ounces, wait out the bottom and then add to your physical position at great prices. Patience is the name of the game.

    As has been stated before, this correction/takedown was one we had to have. The fact that it is delivered in such a brutal fashion could also turn out to be a net benefit in the long run. Better than a slow and drawn out decline anyway.

    The current scenario is a dead give away that the Comex mob has its back to the wall and once all weak hands have left the arena, the BoS will come in and buy twice as much physical than what they would have otherwise, providing the perfect slingshot for silver to climb back to previous highs. In my own minuscule way I will join them.

    No more talk of a bubble next time we get into the 40's, we've just been there.

  72. I just bout a few SLV puts, June 37. Hoping to scalp a bit as today looks the same as the rest of the week so far.

  73. Commodities prices have to come down if Obama wants to get re-elected, an Obama wants to get re-elected. Let's assume that the six largest Wall Street holding banks, who have made windfall profits under Obama, and had spent much money getting him elected in the first place, want to see him get re-elected. Here's how Obama and his financiers will win.

    Major stumbling blocks in the way of Obama's re-election are the high prices of food and fuel. These prices will be brought down. This will be accomplished by reversing the US dollar plunge. The USD is close to an all time record low against the Swiss Franc, but it is its plunge against the Euro that is hurting the USD most. A firming dollar against the euro will result in lower commodities prices. Expect a stronger dollar against the euro and lower prices for food and fuel as we get closer to the election. Hikes in commodities futures margin requirements and a commodities deleveraging from the big banks, along with a strengthening dollar, will equate to food and fuel price relief for Americans. This is easily obtainable, because the central banks and the commodities exchanges all work in concert with each other. Remember, a stronger dollar vs the euro also equates to a weaker US stock market.

    Here's something else that can be done to assure Obama's re-election. Obama got Osama, now he can use this event as justification for removing troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. If, before the election, Obama starts decreasing the number of troops in the MIddle East, as he once promised to do, he will be increasing his chances for re-election.

    Long term, after the Presidential election, the dollar will resume it's plunge to near worthlessness, Food, fuel, sliver and gold, etc, along with stocks,.will climb in value once again. But from now until time that Obama gets re-elected, the stock market and the commodities market could be dangerous places in which to be long.

    I believe the only thing that could derail Obama's re-election is another major terrorist attack on US soil. That would be a game changer. Instead of just drifting lower, as it would with a gradually firming US dollar, the stock market would fall like a rock, and Obama's re-election chances would fall along with it.

  74. Bought in heavy on silver around 40,question is will it ever get back to that number again? Is it safe to hold and wait?

  75. Swapping silver for gold or vice versa is not a problem. If it is, it's a high class problem.

    Like ice cream. Have both. Chocolate, vanilla, gold, silver. There will come a better time to decide if and when and how much to swap. Also at this time, I'm staying 25% in mining shares. Volatile yes, but when this manipulation has run it's course on this cycle I believe they'll far outpace the metals and lead up... way up. Hate to miss that. Yes, it's risk and paper profits but it's also liquidity for another few years. Can buy stuff and will need to without swapping metal for paper.

    Whatever the case, we all scream for ice cream. :)

  76. 37 did not stick around for long..

  77. Turd Man you crack me up. This post was hilarious! This is exactly what I needed in the midst of this manic market.


  78. @ Juan Moment

    The part that I don't understand is if Comex has it's back to the wall, why lower the price and make a default more likely?

    If someone could elaborate on that it would be helpful.

  79. Wow,
    1000 contracts per minute on these long red caldlesticks. Somebody wants another red day

    If I were a Buyer of Size, I'd be waiting too. Lets see how low these foolish American bankers will push silver and gold.

    Gold down 5%
    Silver down 25% with additional margin hikes applied after it started down. No need to adjust ratios with the last two hikes. Does anyone still argue that there is no coordinated manipulation?

  80. TF, some of the greatest plays in the markets have been off of contrarian "bets". As George Soros stated, "Find the premise which is false and bet against it."

    Everything you listed in the blog entry is true so the push to drive prices lower is inherently false. I am betting against that.

    As I stated yesterday I will be back at the dealer buying more physical today. This simply like like getting something early at a discount.
    Hope everyone has a good trading day. Don't sell your physical.

  81. ok, I think everyone had plenty of time to BTFD. Can we bottom out sometime before 30?? This is getting a little scary. Looks like it at least slowed down at 36.80.

  82. People, you are being carpet bombed by silver pouring out of SLV. Take cover, buy puts, protect yourself. 20 million ounces out of SLV yesterday alone. Who knows how much today.

  83. You have earned my highest respect over the past few days Turd. A true gentleman calling it what it is when it isn't easy.
    I've fucked up huge over this past week. Learned a tonne and now hope to take those lessons and charge into the future. What else can we do.

  84. OK, now I'm starting to panic a little bit... can't help it, I know, oz is oz, but... its all underwater now...

  85. At some point, the bleeding has to stop. May be when the arteries(margins) run dry? What then?

  86. @Dr. Jerome
    I noticed the same thing. Very nice stair-step down action but being done with considerable volume. That means push-back buyers all the way down. We're not seeing those fast steep drops that we had early in the week.

  87. That post with the graph earlier in this thread freaked me out. I cannot see this go to $20. Simply cannot see it. I will not.

  88. Any body catch that moon shot on GG? That was a thing of beauty. Like Haley's comet.

  89. John,
    thanks for that perspective

    I bought physical from 40 up to 47, and again at 41 Sunday night. I am just going to stash it away and forget about it for a while. A year from now, this week may look like a flash crash on the charts. Until Turd (and others) says the fundamentals have changed, I believe silver is a solid long-term investment.

  90. On Tuesday morning I woke up out of a dream that silver was at 33. I checked and it was still at 46, so I did nothing.

    Now if that doesn't make your stomach hurt...

    So simply off of that I'm going to predict a bottom at 33

  91. support test here on silver? 36.75 level? if it goes through that, 33.80 level next?

  92. This comment has been removed by the author.

  93. At least if silver drops below $36 I can get another 100 oz low premium maples with free shipping... with what money, I don't know, maybe we can sell some of my wifes shoes...

    Is there seriously no resistance levels at all below $34-35?

  94. Tom, ya, gonna hold CDE for a while more, want to see support in the $27's though.
    Dave, Putting in a limit buy for AGQ at 205 but only if 200 holds and bounces tomorrow, dangerous games we play...

  95. I really don't know jack about all this crap, just followed a friends advice last fall, bought a Mbox for <15K, what a genius I am. This downturn surely does suck, but when I go to local coin shop or look on EBAY it seems that EAGLES still sell for more that spot+ whatever...Is it just me or does there seem to be a growing divide between phyz and paper...Please enlighten my little brain...thx and hang tuff

  96. Alan and others that are worried about silver:

    IF you don't need the money for the next few months, do not sell. Period.

    IF you bought silver under $50, you will be very happy one day. Maybe this summer, maybe fall. Worst case scenario, early 2012.

    Don't let the fear and loathing get you down or lose your position, especially in physical. In times like these, when you least expect it, the bottom can drop out for no technical or fundamental reason unless we consider blatant manipulation and crime a fundamental... which I suppose they are. Conversely, metals can explode upward so fast it'll shock you.

    You are in a MAJOR BULL TREND. Don't forget it. Hold steady. Buy more when you can. You won't go wrong. You will be rewarded for your patience.

  97. @ blackswan...

    I'm with you. Was just talking to a very smart friend of mine whose reply to your post was, "Yup, same thing happened in 04 and 08."

  98. 5 min / 15min / 30 min / 1 hour / four hour and one day is approaching the 20 RCI ... (?)

    Pailin - are you going to enter at the end of the day if the 5min RSI hits 20? i've followed you this week on exits and you've been spot on, you're right it's like a winning trade to cut loses and exit high

  99. Next resistance 36ish, 34 was post tsumani low and post meltdown low. Below that there be dragons.

  100. Don't you know we need silver under $36? I thought I made this clear to you previously, Mr. Ferguson.

  101. Cashed out of AGQ with a 36% loss from my high this week. I'm going to start nibbling away when silver hits $34.50ish. What a kick in the nuts.

  102. I'm still aiming at 36.35 as support; let's see how that turns out. If it doesn't work, I might as well start using a bingo set-up to predict price movements. As long as the numbers in it are below 35 it'll probably be more accurate than me anyway.

  103. I'm brand new to all this. 5 weeks ago a friend pushed me down this road (no regrets), and now here I am. I've learned so much it's crazy. I own no physical, (yet) but i started just 5 weeks ago with extra money, (that i was completely ok with losing, as it's truly extra, not for bills, retirement, or college funds) buy Calls in SLV. Just before all this started I bought a July 50 call, should i get out, or wait. I'm leaning toward wait it out but I'm not sure if i'm missing something. Any advice is welcome. I truly appreciate all i've learned so far, and i'm doing my best to tell every friend, family member and co-worker about the plan to kill the US dollar.

    Thanks so much Turd for opening my eyes!

    I feel like Neo in the Matrix, i just took the pill!

  104. D'yall like RED?!


    Tell ya what: that Russian Billy is gonna get one heckuva smokin' Ag deal when he/she/they finally buy. It'll go something like this:

    "Chello, Crimexski? Da,I vill now please to be taking remainder da phyzski in entire world off your hands, in return for soon to be worthless Fiatski paper. Ahh capitalism! Please to be delivering много of the shiny Ag metal to my Crimean dacha. Spasiba. Sucker."

  105. blorf and other short term bears,

    Most people here don't want to hear that but I'm with you since Monday. I figure that taking the list of year to date commodity/futures gainers from finviz ( and taking bear positions on them would be a good idea. I think I've got a handle on good bear ETFs for gold, silver, oil but if anybody has good trade ideas for the softs and currencies I would love to hear it. Have been solely focused on PMs in my short time actively trading.

    Right now I'm in SCO calls for oil, DBA puts for the softs, ZSL/ZSL calls, SLV puts, GLD puts, and even a little bit of UUP (dollar bull). Very small positions so yes I am being careful out there.

  106. Meant to add:

    In a major bull market, many mistakes of bad timing are quickly smoothed over. At $40 silver (or even $49), you have a short-term downer... not a loss and not a mistake. A few dozen dollars one way or the other ain't gonna be noticed in a year.

  107. Well I have officially made Turds place my new permanent home. CR ( Calculated risk ) was my home, but one has to continually defend ones position there and I am tired of it. 5 years on that blog. I find the member here are more like minded for me less drama and more talk of making money and trading that is what I like about turds home here. So consider me a permanent resident.

    I have lots to offer.


  108. A very bullish sign, again, is that GDX has found support at its 200 day MA and certain mining stocks simply refuse to go lower, for example AG and GPL. Even SLW seems to not want to drop below 36.

  109. @Dr.Jerome...a year from now?do you think it will take that long?i know turd said fundamentals have not changed,but when will this madness going to have a heartattack and liquidate if it falls below 35

  110. Hello everyone, I think either it will bounce off the 100 MA @35 or 200 day MA @30. BB

  111. Turd, you are the man. Thanks for the work you do. Hey, rumor has it that Slim is shorting silver. If he is, who isn't? Well, not me, I will never sell my physical, but I will disclose here that I sold half my SLW at $45, and the other half at $42. Why? Because a couple months ago the then CEO said he would hedge at $50. What a stupid thing to say. I am now looking for a new silver equity play while I slap my coins around. Anyway, take care everybody! And remember, buy PHYSICAL silver.

    The latest CME report is out. Bizarre. OI is actually increasing, even on the MAY and JUN contracts. Not much, but that surprises--directionally. And front month JUL is up a huge 4800 contracts. Thoughts?
    May 5, 2011 10:06 AM

  113. @stevy
    My strategy is morphing for this environment. Since my trading position is presently flat, I will be shorting at 5min RSI 80. It's proven itself several times this week. Most recently last night. I do believe I will stay up overnight tonight and try to grab that play again at London open (3am), closing with buy at RSI 30 or 20 around 8am.

  114. I'll be heading to Coin shop to snag some Eags on sale 2da! Nice site TF. I have you bookmarked now. :)

  115. Shill: Great to have you!
    And the same to all the others who have recently joined!

  116. Looks like AGQ is gonna go below $200. This is brutal.

  117. And don't forget our theme song:

  118. @bro D

    When they go outside the bands, it is only 2 1/2% chance they will stay there. They can widend those bands but it is an excellent opportunity for a day trade. The signal it is giving is if you are short, lighten up on the bottom breakout and if long lighten up on the top breakout. It really isnt supposed to be a day trade signal but I am a cowboy. GLTA
    Oh yea, when this finally ends, it will be on a spike and it will be when you think the world has ended for silver. It will also come back with a vengance. But the downs are always faster than the ups.

  119. well I sure hope the employment report tomorrow is a good one, and stocks skyrocket, otherwise silver gets crushed...

    good luck with your longside bet on economic recovery in the US, silver bulls. I admire your courage. I don't think you have thought it through though.

  120. days like today make me glad that i'm not a day trader...

    although it would be nice to have some cash in my options account... i've never done anything but physical

  121. Wow, what a change of tone on the board today. Lots of reasoned, thoughtful analysis that's worth thinking about and little emotion except for humor. Guess we're all working through our angst!

    I like the comment above that EE's target is Ag<36. Makes sense. Of course, they want it as far below that level as they can get it. Nothing to do now on silver but wait out the fire until it burns itself out.

    I am looking at gold, however. It's only down a few percent and I have a feeling the money will rush back there quicker than to silver when the bottom is sensed. I'm thinking GLD calls may be in my near future. What say others?

  122. I'd be interested to know when you silver bulls are going to start buying? I'm afraid if we are all waiting for a bottom, it could take a while. personally, I'm not touching this until at least next week, and when I do, it will be coins, not paper.

    I've been a silver bull for years now and went through this in 2008. That collapse was scary at the time, but ended up allowing me to nearly double my physical.

    This huge run up from 25 to 50 caught me by surprise. I did not add even one ounce because I was waiting for that inevitable pull-back that never came. Now we have it and once again I'm going to take advantage of it.

    Just thought I'd add that $.02 of experience in these type of gut-wrenching moments.

    Great site, love to get everyone's thoughts and perspectives, especially Turd's.

  123. Bad guys are throwing a lot of volume to break 36. This is a fight.

  124. Turd you know I try to stay very optimistic and we are in such a r position since finding your blog and preparing with food/water/supplies and physical metals.

    But I am getting really worried that are whole physical stash is underwater at this point and we do not have any more cash to add to our meager physical position.

    I try to remind myself that he fundamental reason that I put our whole family funds into metals was because they are worthless at 1% bank interest and in case of systemic collapse, while in case of systemic collapse physical metals and food water etc would be our safety net.

    Now I do not know why but am beginning to doubt my fundamental assumptions about the end of the keynesian economy.

    I don't know what anyone can say but I am about *this* close to going off the ledge here. I know you are doing your best but I hope you have something to reassure us further.

    Turd are you still 100% certain about the end of the keynesian economy and the need for all these supplies and metals we have laid up? I'm sorry for asking but I beginning to panic here. I want to be a good dad and provider.

  125. @pablo

    "I put our whole family funds into metals"

    i know this has to be a joke, right? pls tell me it is a joke. pls tell me u r a troll.

  126. My A.M. silver prediction:[

    Silver Thus Far:

    I think there might be a pattern? Algo much?

  127. My perspective, as wrong headed as this may be to those who detest fiat, is to always take a double when it presents itself. Regardless of your fundamental beliefs about where the economy or the bullshit financial system we now live with. Just take the double next time and play with the house's 'money'. You will never be sorry. You can always use the fiat you gain to buy food, land whatever else floats your boat, or just sit on it in the event silver comes back in to where you bought it.

  128. On a side note, Ron Paul is hosting a money bomb and is participating in the Southern Republican Debates tonight at 9:00 Est.

    $300,000 raised so far and counting, the goal is $2,000,000.

  129. Pablo - Take a deep breath, buddy.

    The "paper" value of your supplies and metals is NOT REAL. It's imaginary: that's why it can vary so drastically from day to day.

    The INTRINSIC value of those resources has not changed. If TSHTF, you'll need food and water, and you'll be able to use silver. If TS does not HTF, the price of food will continue to rise, and the value of silver will eventually rise again.

    Rule #1 is don't panic.

    Rule #2 is don't panic.

    Rule #3 is don't panic.

  130. they will not stop before Crude is below 100

  131. Yikes- just read what I posted. I didn't mean to say take all of your silver profits off the board. I meant to say that you take half of your double off the board, still holding half of your physical or paper gains for zero basis, less taxes of course.

  132. crude down 6 bucks, equities down 120....this is just a big POSX short covering rally....question is if jobs report stinks tomorrow, does QE3 begin to get priced back in market? thus giving support to commodities...I think it does...thoughts?

  133. Been watchin RVMID too, its held up well til now

  134. Why would this be a trolling post?

    Yes all the money in the savings in the bank at 0% , I put into metals and preparations. It was not doing anything for us sitting in the bank.

    Of course we still have our checking account for bills obviously and our buffer zone in there but that cannot be spent to purchase more metals!

  135. Thank you Turd, look forward to the new home for sure.

    Loaded up on GPL I like this price action here and I am going long. Nothing has changed in the last 2 or 3 weeks except the mind set. EE ploy to weed everyone out of their position. I took some profits off the table but decided this was a good price. I am back in. And bought Gold this morning via APMEX I know JPM funded...But I have been buying form APMEX for 5 years, solid company always delivered as purchased.

  136. FOAGQ-

    I drew a couple of very rough lines on an AGQ chart, angled up from the start of the run and the bottom point of the last correction and down from the current trend, it puts us in the 150 to 160 I'm not going to even worry about getting back in til it hits that area (which given current movements, could be tomorrow....)

  137. damn 36. Who invited him to the party. He came, had one drink and left.

    Never even took his coat off.


  138. @Pailin: same story here buddy. It was the simple things which I took for granted in the early days of trading which I took for granted.

    We'll get through this. Hang tough.
    I know what it's like to be unemployed for a long time.
    Never lose hope.
    Never lose your positive spirit.

    Your friend from Asia.

  139. This is a SILVER free fall. NEVER seen anything like it. This beats 2008 in terms of time. At least that took days. This is hours. Down $3.07 UNBELIEVABLE

  140. PABLO, you are panicking a bit right now. Before you'd mentioned one oz of gold. If that's all we're talking about, stop panicking please.

    If it's too much for you - go sell it...and take your </= loss of $100.

    Perhaps this isn't the game for you right now.

  141. I starting trading XAG acct at 36.20. Cute that if I had done buy/hold I'd be underwater now. Didn't get out at the right time (top), but did clear with some gains still on the table. This thing is indeed going lower than any of us energetic bulls had thought. It was a little silly to think all that upside wouldn't have any sort of corollary :)

    You are right, wherever the bottom is, none of us will catch it and the spike will be magnificent. The SOS will step to the side (like the BOS have been) and let the spec shorts get murderlized.

  142. Think it might be time to nibble.

    GG is my go to right now. It will lead the golds going forward.

  143. Guys if you need a bit of encouragement check this out, just remember the beach ball effect, and after they do raise the margins to 100% what tricks will they have left? WE SHALL OVERCOME!

  144. FOAGQ I have a piece in from last friday. Leaving it. Will day trade when I'm ready.

  145. xty must have died. Where is she?

    Someone needs to email her. This is not right.

  146. @EWC58

    How did you get that cyrillic font? Is it a download from somewhere?

  147. Economic Analysis,

    No, this is nowhere near 2008. If it were, HL would be a dollar, SLW would be $5, and EXK would be a penny stock.

    We're not even close to 2008.

  148. Got scared out of my paper silver stocks 5 or 6 dollars ago...luckily...but haven't had the first inkling of a thought of going in and selling my physical...that is easy when you were buying consistently between $4-$20....just considering adding some physical @ above $20 which is much harder emotionally and thinking about what formation I am looking for in order to re-enter AGQ.

    my rule #1. Not re-entering AGQ on a day with new lows.

    my rule #2. Once we have a day where we are not @ new lows(not today) I'll check the Turd and consider entering based on how things look.

    This may seem agressively bullish...but it doesn't look like we are on the verge of a big sustained 20 year bull market in US bond prices and that is exactly what was needed to create a really sustained sell off in silver last time...not really even close to today's situation.

  149. Pablo- Hang tough partner. This is an EE induced fluctuation and you are NOT in this to merely scalp profits this week, you are in this for your family for the long-haul. You will be fine and ultimately will be in better shape than most people out there. And in the future, to save yourself this angst, always always keep some dry powder. This, too, shall pass.

  150. Turd, correct me if I'm wrong, but in the context of a downtrend doesn't increasing OI mean that there are more sellers than buyers? I suppose that's bullish if you're thinking about a short covering scenario but seems bearish to me from a trend continuation perspective.

    Conversely, during an uptrend increasing OI would be more buyers than sellers.

  151. kiwi - i think you're right about 150ish

    PABLO - if you have food/water preparations and metals, what are you worrying about? your family will be able to eat and that is what is most important. by the end of the year at the very latest the PMs will be making new highs.

    if you're still really worried about the volatility just move your silver into gold. there is simply no way it is going down significantly

  152. @JoeKa
    Glad to see you're still with us buddy, you've been really quiet lately so I was a bit worried. Likely you've taken some hits like most of us. Persevere..persevere.

  153. Hard bounce off of 35.6. This is below the long-fought over 36 line, so lets see where that level holds. I hope everyone is now aware of the need for some hedging and the risk of investing on margin.

  154. I'd be ok with $1 silver...I'd be buying well over 100 ounces a week...pretty sure I won't get that chance. Too many people have $ and not enough have ounces.

  155. 36.09....

    I feel like Im going to throw up. Bought at 24, 37 and 41 with an average of 31.

    Hold over 7000 ounces...Fuck this sucks. We need to find a fucking bottom.

  156. The blood is almost up to my ankles....I WANT to BUY....wait...wait...hehehe!

  157. Part of the guilt is friends I told about silver and they went in with their money in the 40's

    I do not know how to deal with that guilt. I warned not to use money you can't afford to lose, only put your savings there. But I feel so guilty for telling them to order silver when it was high.

  158. Diamond, im right with you, only half ur amount but probably means more to me than it does to you.

    Personally I am not going to sell. Will be buying a little more next week. Luckily fishing season starts in less than a week and I will take time off form this nonsense.

    Will not listen to any advice from noone ever again. I hate myself so much. I had been waiting for about 2 months for a big dip and by accident I happened to read comments on this blog and saw the AGQ reccommendation and lost conrol of my brain.

    God help me.

  159. Gabe..I like that backwards perspective..Nice

  160. Yes I took a massive hit but that's not the reason why I stayed away from the blog.

    The negativity kept me out. Now that realisation has set in for most people, we get more rational thoughts.

    I've retained a positive spirit but there were tough days. I'm thankful for a beautiful and wonderful spouse, a roof over my head and food on the table. :)

    About the charts, the commodity selloff is absolutely ridiculous. Just for today alone, I'm seeing the following price losses:

    GOLD -$30
    SILVER -$2.80
    PLATINUM -$45
    PALLADIUM -$43


    We'll get through this and laugh about it in a few weeks time.

  161. The part that I don't understand is if Comex has it's back to the wall, why lower the price and make a default more likely?

    Yeah, hard to comprehend. My guess is that the Comex's foremost problem/aim is to procure enough silver to satisfy delivery in next couple of months. Their inventory in the vaults is running pretty low and there are only two ways to get silver holders to sell their metals, either the price goes high enough, or low enough. The Comex gang played both cards, first it let the price reach toppy levels, people sold, and now its pile driving it into the floor and people are selling.

    Their actions over the past week will yield the desired effect, silver will now flood the market, and small speculators got their noses bloodied to the point that they will think twice before buying their next silver contract.

    But, those 100 million ounces reappearing on the market due to this latest flush out, what difference do they make in the medium term? I reckon very little.

    Like in my case. I bought my last silver at $34, and was certain, even though in hindsight I wished I'd bought more back then, I would not buy any more once it ran past $40. Now that it is headed back down to $30, possibly 20's, I can't believe my luck. I will be one of those people who once prices have bottomed will maybe not back up the truck, but definitely buy a stack to fill my glove box.

    In short, without this drop in prices I would not have bought more, now I will. And so will many other players, and before you know it those extra 100 mil ounces floating around now will be gobbled up by stronger hands than the ones who sold, and the Comex will again have no silver to deliver. But this time the new holders are prepared and will not shake in their boots with every margin hike.

    The important part is to not invest funds one might need in the near future and to always keep some dry powder. Helps to be more relaxed about events such as the current hammering.

    We will see 40 again, don't worry about that. It won't happen overnight, but happen it will. As Tolstoy wrote, “The two most powerful warriors are patience and time.”

  162. pretty funny the DXY is dominating. aren't we hitting the debt ceiling next week?

  163. PABLO - understood. Giving winning advice is fun, the contrary hurts. However those who cannot afford the game shouldn't play the game. And it is just that, a game. I find the most mature metals investors longer term thinkers...and silver is a wild ride. And will continue to be. My advice stands - take your loss and stand ready...perhaps that's a conversation to have with your friends today as well.

    I understand pal, i do.

  164. Never underestimate your enemy and remember: "Obstacles make you clever" - courtesy of Ho Chi Minh.

  165. Take this in too account folks...Equities are only down -100. Again they are shaking the foundation. And the POSX$ Still sucks.

  166. This is the easiest money I have ever made. SLV puts that is.

  167. Wow, crude really fell hard. The USDX is still going up. Once that pukes and rolls over I think I'll be looking to buy some AGQ and more physical.

  168. The mining shares totally forecasted this plunge, and few of us paid heed. Let's all pay better attention from now on.

    Lick your wounds, but please don't despair. The secular bull in precious metals is intact. Fiat is trash, and history shows it is always inflated to worthlessness. Yes, we lose this day, and we may lose several more. But in the end, only gold (and arguably silver) will remain.

  169. TPTB are still sowing the seeds of their own defeat..they are conducting classes in why not to trust paper as a store of value.

    Evolution is cold hard and merciless and it is sad. Those that refuse to learn have had their wealth decreased, those who really internalize that material wealth=ounces are in better shape today than two weeks ago. Those that really internalize the idea that material wealth=paper promises are poorer today than two weeks ago.

    Yes it is difficult to beat them at their own paper game when they control the rules...and maybe I shouldn't have even tried...but at least I have the option of trying again because to a large degree I have internalized the concept that ounces store wealth better than paper promises and I do still get regular paper funding from my day job of serving TPTB.

  170. Old Navy: Your view on gold matches my thoughts exactly. I spent Sun/Mon/Tue exiting all my silver positions, and converted half to gold, half to fiat.

    I am not ashamed in the slightest to say that I am flat on all silver-related items, including all my physical. I now have more gold thanks to this, and I've been stunned at how well gold is holding up at the moment. Yes, it's dropped $90 an ounce, but for every 6% of silver's slide, gold has dropped only 1%. And even that amount is only out of 'sympathetic punishment' along with all the other 'risk' trades.

    I'm sure that when this is all over, those who were previously 'silver-minded' will become gold converts as a result.

    But (to all), and I'm sorry to be so negative here, I cannot envisage a scenario in which silver will pull back for possibly months. Think how many desperate people have held on to their silver (physical and paper) through this fall. They're currently broken and demoralised and panicking, and as soon as there's any upward movement they're going to be selling to try to stem some of their losses. This will check any upward momentum at each stage. And this will have the knock-on effect of discouraging the hedgies from playing, so buy interest will be even lower.

    Buy gold - it's indestructable*


    * except in aqua regia.

  171. Never fall in love with an investment. I made that mistake in the 2008 commodity bubble but I learned my lesson. Once we were going up $1 a day in April I knew things had gotten out of hand.

  172. Just in:



    Japan struck by 6.1 magnitude quake

  173. @Juan

    Thanks for elaborating on the Comex issue. It is kind of amazing that there isn't one filthy rich person in the entire world who is willing to buy the whole thing and take delivery without any of this margin crap.

    Although if you're already that rich, you benefit more from keeping the system in place than forcing a default.

    Maybe there is one brave person out there

  174. Tyler-

    Well, AGQ bottoming at 155 seems like a plausable number.... but if I really believed it why aren't I buying some ZSL?

  175. FOAGQ (and others in general) -

    I've officially been in ZSL since Tuesday morning and am cautiously staying there until something meaningful happens to the contrary.

    In the meantime, I'll be watching the equity markets because they are what hasn't been hammered YET... the minute it looks like they are taking it on the chin, I'll short the RUT with TWM which is the "ZSL of the RUT".

    Got tired of feeling sorry for myself and dithering... keeping 50% powder dry, but I'd be a fool to not be shorting with the other 50% at this point.

  176. srsly & Diamond,

    You both have stated the case @AGQ very well. We almost have no choice but to just sit tight. The fishing idea may be a good one; it is said that a watched pot never boils.

  177. Mamma mia! That's only gonna accelerate further selling. As if it weren't accelerated enough ?!

  178. Has everyone gone bonkers? This time is not different than the last silver bubble. Gold has also double topped. Commodites and stocks selling off.

  179. Hi, newb here. I've been contemplating shutting down the 401k for a while and just paying some bills and buying a few ounces of silver. There's not a ton in it, so it's not a huge blow, but I'm mainly just interested in anyone's opinion on the matter. Also, is there anyway to buy physical silver from the 401k, and hopefully not getting a penalty?

    thanks in advance

  180. Mike the permabear just put in a buy order at 34.5.

    Not that I don't think it won't go lower in the long run, but this crash is almost over.

  181. The dead fish is flopping (POSX). Just stand back and don't get covered in its blood. The fundos for PM are solid, sell the crap paper for fiat and buy Physical when the price settles. Whenever some nasty beast dies it thrashes the hardest just before it stops moving.

  182. I just became one of those buyers again. Another 40oz stack. Just keep slowly accumalating nothing has changed as Turd has said. There is no political will on either side to control spending. They must keep printing to try and retain their power.

    This is not a short-term get rich quick investment. It is to allow us to store wealth and transitiion to the other side. Just BTFD.

  183. @Pablo
    If you're a physical buyer/holder, why are you watching the prices daily? You're hedging against loss of value in the dollar right? So that's a longer term play, not daily. I would think your advice to friends was the same. So the same to them as well. Physical is not a day trade, so daily prices shouldn't sweat you. Easier just not to look - unless you have funds to buy again, then you're looking for a good "in". But that's not where you're at right now, so don't sweat it. And don't convert fiat to physical that you might need over the next 6-12 months. It's unlikely the end of the dollar will occur that soon. We got us another HOPE filled election to get through first :)

  184. it's not a big jump in premium (yet), but I have bought silver Buffalos twice from GVille Coins today and the premium was 1.10/oz. Now as silver has gone down a little further GVille has upped their premium to 1.15/oz.

    I asked about this the other day, but not sure if anyone responded.

    But isn't it possible that if the EE beats silver down further and further the dealer premiums are just going to go higher and higher as we all buy like crazy? They have to cover their costs and as supply dwindles more and more couldn't we end up with "cheap" silver with massive premiums which means silver could cost double what it does right now?

  185. If you have physical, worry not! Hold it. This dip will pass. Think long term. You have not lost until you sell out.

    I am staying niimble with my trading account. I exited AGQ with a loss, but I think it is going to retrace at some point in the near future, so I will get back in after we have a confirmed bottom and ride it back into the 300s. I took a blood bath on my AGQ bull put spreads and had to exit --a day too late.

  186. @Atlee...

    Given my note above, do you have any interest in watching TWM in the same way you've been playing AGQ or will it not work that way?

  187. King Dollar Kudlow now on CNBS discussing the death of the gold/silver bubble and the Benanke/Geithner engineered USDX "bubble"

    Comparisons to the 1869 Jim Fisk "Gold Market Corner"

  188. well isnt this fun. Are we all hedged yet? Im increasing my position by the day (that should probably be by the hour but i dont want to get caught too short, there SHOULD be SOME sort of bounce soon... right? RIGHT?)

    This is officially the craziest thing ive ever seen. Way worse looking than 2008. its only the 4th freaking day.

    Theres a sea of terrible economic data out there recently and its all looking terrible.

    Sounds like the dollar is going to get a kick up here big time. Euro will get toasted.

    Not sure what to think of all this - lets see if 36 holds. The sell off's gone full retard at this point.

  189. @ Shill

    Damn earthquake just when I try my first bit of serious day trading - not leaving this computer till I've sold!!

  190. @kiwi

    hahahaha - to be honest i'm scared shitless of now going the opposite way and getting screwed by ZSL

    legalized gambling

  191. don't rely on Kitco, their charts are broken again.

  192. Turd... I accidentally bought PSLV yesterday (previous Buy targets in my Silver Trade account) however I hedged equally @2x with ZSL (POS UltraShort Silver) to join the JP Goon squand in the shorting party. Thank goonness!!

    However I am honorable in my intentions in raising the fiat-POS in order to go all in PHYSICAL Silver & Gold (looking good @ 1500).

    Thanks for all you do... if it is $35, $30, $25, or $24-0... anything is better than the POSX!!