Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Turd's Bottom #2

I just like typing that. It could go down in history as the greatest thread title, ever.

I'm not ready to declare Turd's #2 just yet but I really want to. I mean I really want to. Honestly, the only thing stopping me is the brutally manipulative way that this "correction" in silver has been forced upon us. If the goons at the CME hadn't already shown their willingness to do anything to restrain silver, I'd feel a lot more comfortable sticking my neck out. I mean, I'm already on the record predicting a turnaround by early next week but to come right out and say it is happening tonight would be foolish given the circumstances.

That said, we are really freaking close. Right now. Tonight.
Silver has rebounded all day from the shellacking it took this morning. It is back above $34 and has now  held the $33 level 3 times in past 7 trading days.
Now, do me a favor. Print off the 3-hour chart below. Walk into your bathroom with the chart. Turn it upside down and look at it in the mirror. What do you see?
Seriously, go do it. I'll wait right here until you get back.

OK, glad you're back. What did you see? I'll tell you what I see.
I see a chart that, if looked at in the inverse, would tell you to sell. Fast.
I see a sharp move higher to a spike top, followed be a brief selloff.
Then it reverses and spikes again but fails to make it much past the original high.
It then back off again before attempting another run to a new high only to be rebuffed and roll over.
(And what if it made all these thrusts higher on sequentially lower volume, too?)
If you were long (something, anything) and the chart you just saw in the mirror was your chart, you'd be awful nervous and ready to sell at the first sign of failure. To me that failure, that terminal sign, would be a breakdown through the lows made after the second stab at the new high.

Now, turn the chart back around and look again at present-hour silver. None of the dynamics listed above are different. They all apply. We're just looking for a bottom instead of a top. The nervous longs in the outline above are the nervous, smartypant shorts that currently rule the silver pit. Right now, right this instant, silver has triple-bottomed. In fact, it's even a H&S bottom as the middle bottom is deeper than both shoulders. This could all change, of course. The bottom could drop out overnight and we could be under $32 by tomorrow morning and all the shorts will be contentedly counting their newfound wealth. However, IF silver continues to grind higher overnight, every single tick increases the shorts' nervousness. A move through 34.50 would cause them to cover a little. Above 35.50 and they're covering more and, if silver gets back above 36.50, they'll be covering the rest of their shorts faster than you can say "Bob Moriarty".

So, hang in there tonight and let's bring home a victory. I've got a last of 34.20 and gold is rallying, too. It's back up to 1491.
We're close. We're very close.
See you in the U.S. a.m.  TF

251 comments:

  1. hahaha. Turd. I had just posted in the last thread that today seemed like a day in February but didn't have the data to back it.

    :-)

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  2. I just remembered this video of Peter Schiff where he describes the pop in PM every time Ben Bernanke speaks. Let's hope it holds true tomorrow.

    http://www.europac.net/media/video_blog/silver_sell_off_record_low_t_bill_rates_inflation

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  3. I learned so many lessons of trading over this past two weeks. Can't wait for the next go at a higher spot price to try again.. ..and hopefully get it right this time!

    Thank you TF for a cautious and yet uplifting post. ..*crossing fingers*..

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  4. The gold futures volume at the newly opened HKMEx are just charging! They're racking up the numbers alright.

    Pre-cursor to strong Gold numbers today methinks.
    Hopefully Silver stays strong and follows suit.

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  5. Way oversold, both physical and stocks. Due for a bounce.

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  6. f**k the Comex.. here comes the long-awaited HKMEx gold contract. Here's their blurb:

    HKMEx is introducing a 32 troy ounce gold futures contract useable by a wide range of market participants to execute hedging, arbitrage and other investing strategies.

    Moreover, the HKMEx gold futures contract has the following important characteristics designed to meet the needs of a marketplace which lacks an international price-setting mechanism in the Asian time zone:
    • Secure physical delivery in Hong Kong meeting international standards
    • Trading execution on an advanced and robust electronic platform
    • World-class clearing functionality
    • Extended Asian day trading hours to tap into global market liquidity
    • Contract specifications tailored to market participants in Asia

    Gold is one of the world’s most important and actively traded commodities. Demand for the metal is driven by three main factors: the jewellery market, industrial manufacturing and financial investment. In addition, gold is relatively unique in that it is used as both a commodity and a monetary asset.

    Although gold has a long trading history in Asia, the majority of price formation for gold is today concentrated in the North American and European markets. In recent years, the introduction of gold futures trading in Asia has tapped into latent trading demand that is primarily driven by strong economic development in China and India.

    Hong Kong is historically one of the world’s leading gold centres and has a natural geographical advantage in Asia. Hong Kong’s vibrant financial infrastructure ensures access to leading market participants and deep regional and international pools of liquidity.
    Trading hours for the HKMEx gold contract will extend from 0800 HKT to 2300 HKT, opening with TOCOM in Japan and encompassing the London Bullion Market Association AM Fixing, the opening of COMEX, and the LBMA PM Fixing. The HKMEx opening auction will run from 0730 to 0800.

    While gold futures trading on Asian exchanges has demonstrated significant growth, there is currently no contract that is or will likely become a regional benchmark contract for gold pricing. Without a regional benchmark, true price discovery for gold is either confined to the local in-country market or must depend on the European or North American markets. In-country markets generally restrict foreign participation and often subject it to adverse currency restrictions or tax treatment. Meanwhile, global benchmark pricing from the western hemisphere provides imperfect hedging for Asia’s trading community.

    HKMEx is well positioned to address the demand of Asia’s trading community for the establishment of a gold futures contract as the regional benchmark.

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  7. Well, I didn't print it and take it to the bathroom, but I did copy it to Paint and flip it on the vertical.

    Tomorrow will be very interesting, to say the least.

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  8. Fortinbras - local = Worlds Most Famous Bitch

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  9. @Fortinbras

    @Old Navy

    I just got Kiyosaki's new book, Unfair Advantage. I'm only on Chapter 1, but it feels like it is getting me on a more hopeful path. I'm mostly new to Kiyosaki, though. He's really a douchebag? I didn't think so when I heard this podcast: http://radio.goldseek.com/nuggets/kiyosaki05.04.11.mp3

    Despite his being a douchebag, is his advice worth taking? Is it worth making the shift to the B & I quadrants from the E & S quadrants?

    Why is he a douchebag?

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  10. I am trying a first post for the 3rd time.

    I just found this Blog and it is very good.

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  11. turd - i see the same pattern shaping up with the GLD/GDX ratio now as Jan low as well. nice to hear your comments confirming what i see with the miners.

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  12. Great post Turd. Pretty much summed up exactly my feelings as well.

    Would not want to be short moving forward.

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  13. For those of us who are too lazy to print and find a mirror.

    http://imageshack.us/f/8/517evesilv3.jpg/

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  14. i am crossing my fingers, just don't see why Blythe and the EE would quit manipulating now? They are so close to busting through the critical $33 and smashing down silver to god knows how low. If they didn't cover any of their shorts before the last COT report, I see no reason to think they'll stop shorting now. Looks like the comex will survive another month, so sadly I feel it's GAME ON for the evil bankers and tonight they will hammer down the price again below $33.

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  15. It was just a matter of time. Once all the froth was washed out of the markets, it is now time to climb that "wall of worry" again. Hopefully in a more orderly manner this time. And, this time, with gold and the miners coming along for the ride.

    The miners are sorely undervalued, but the rebalancing is getting a bit better. A lot of the big names are in or approaching oversold territory and overdue for a spectacular bang.

    Hope y'all are still out there holding and adding. It has been painful of late, but the payoff should be quite nice.

    Remember: QE cannot end. If it does, you better have lots of that delicious canned bacon and a shotgun. Mmmmm, Bacon.

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  16. @JNG: shoot! Those letters in reverse look disturbing man...

    Oh wait...the chart! :P


    @sockeye: welcome to Turd's world buddy. Enjoy your stay!

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  17. I see the Ben Bernank himself posts here now, lol

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  18. If you turn it upside down, you would call it triple-top, etc... c'mon Turd, say it!!!!

    i encourage you guys to put positions in our looooong-beloved Au/Ag complex. It is high time.

    say it TURD!!!

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  19. I think gold will be the leader, personally. We were at $49 just two short weeks ago (I know, it's felt like a friggen year) and still think silver needs to spend some time in the pit getting beat up.

    If gold figures it wants out and up from this $1495 wedge point, then i think all things shiny will follow. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5ycbZaVNcj4/TdLvo8uBUVI/AAAAAAAAQ0I/RmmjbEhvc7U/s1600/Midas0517D.gif

    And once it does break to the upside, it's one step forward, three steps back all summer long...but eventually it will walk, jog and then run again.

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  20. I'm so proud of myself I called a bottom. While I listened to the Turd I was my own women. I think I got this and it's all due to your teachings.
    We got this, I hate what wil happen to the sheep, but if I can stock up silver, food and fuel, and the sheep buy Ipads I say to hell with them. Disclaimer I get no other assistance but SSD for being 100% disabled.
    Rock on Turd

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  21. I was just thinking I hope we don't see Turds bottom ever again, but this time I'm into it. Turn around!

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  22. Man, I thought I was the only guy who inverted his charts (like a spider doing push-ups against a mirror) so as to see everything possible from every which angle, but I can see I'm not alone. I know what you're looking at, Turd, and I know what you're intuiting, but I for one remain trepidatiously circumspect and uncomfortably numb, given the shellackings silver has been through. Enjoyed your white-out chart previously posted, though. It helps to employ fuzzy logic when dealing with super-parabolic rhino horns.

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  23. @JoeKa

    If you read Turds writing upside down and backwards there's a hidden code to get a free cream filled donut at crispy creams that might even have a silver eagle in the center. :)

    JNG

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  24. The tech indicators show sellers are leaving the market and the buyers are slowly returning, a lot of indicators are showing we are just on the brink of continuing the up trend...

    Great info TF, glad I found this site.....

    I hold physical silver.......added a bunch over the weekend

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  25. Diamond...

    If you've had what I would call a "vanilla" education and grew up being taught, "Go to school, get good grades, get a good job, work real hard, and it will all work out", then you should read all of Kiyosaki's stuff... and make sure you read Michael Maloney's book on gold and silver in the Kiyosaki series. It will all make you think and it's full of nuggets.

    As I said, reading his first book somwhere around 2000 "flipped the switch" for me in terms of getting on a path of working for myself and getting financially independent.

    As for the "douche bag" comment, we don't mean it in a "don't read his stuff" way, more just some of the things he's said and done outside of his books.

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  26. @adventures..me too SSD, 100%, glad I trade. been in shiny metals two years, love miners, and am a believer. I called it too, even put it on my calendar on Mon. Still tentative of course, but, smells like a bottom to me.
    cheers! jacks

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  27. A bottom is in when 2 or my buyers collectively feel an urgency to start competing with each other. The failure of the EE to breach 33 may not be for lack of trying, and presumably they did not stop trying at 33. Perhaps indeed they did get overzealous and shake out too many weak hands too quickly, and now find themselves short of involuntary conscripts to man their front line. Or maybe they breach tomorrow. Wouldn't be the end of the world, that's not till Sat. :)

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  28. Funny Turd. I actually printed it out and looked at it upside down in the mirror like you said. It was a little weird for me seeing one of your charts printed on paper since I've only looked at them on the screen. Somehow it made it more real. :)

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  29. I was ready to give you a chance, but you know I can't let you get away with accurately calling a bottom; I suppose I'll have to change my plans for tomorrow, Mr. Ferguson!

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  30. Nice! Getting about time to dip the other foot in the water.

    @delta
    Appreciate the article on the Hong Kong. I was wondering if they would do their own price discovery and if it would expose the manipulation in the West. Apparently not, but good on them for making more gold available for delivery.

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  31. Diamond-

    The only Kiyosaki book I read was "Rich Dad, Poor Dad", and the main thing that bothered me was that he uses "fuzzy" math to support his cases... the one that really struck me was an apartment building he bought for (let's say) 100K, and collected 10K in rent for 10 units, and so (he said) paid off the building in one year.....ah, what about maintenance, taxes, etc?

    It seemed like a "get rich quick" atmosphere, where every deal goes great and everything gets turned around for a fast profit.

    Just my take.

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  32. Please pay close attention to my remarks tomorrow, you'll LOVE it!

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  33. Thanks Turd..Looking at the futures the DOW may carry it further higher for sure.

    http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

    But stay vigilant, she can turn on a dime. So keep your bets tight and dry, no need to be a hero here, your just looking to pick up some of your losses. Lately the futures market is just as volitile with swings and direction.

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  34. Jacks said... "smells like a bottom to me."

    :)

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  35. Trinity B and Blythe within a few hours of each other and not right after midnight... interesting evening for sure!

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  36. @JNG: yippee! Dessert and free silver fillings too!
    Happy happy! :) :)

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  37. Mr.Bernanke

    Thank you for the discounts over the last few days, your monkeys serve you well.

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  38. Yeah the EE must have something very special planned; what occasion has prompted you to offer us this unusual bonus post, Blythe?

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  39. WEll I got my food, loading up on lead and copper jackets as well silver. Garden's in beer made and starting to make jerky and canning meat. All is right in my world.
    Try and play Indiana in Idaho. I think our cops are smarter to try that crap.

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  40. @Leonard

    I think Turd pissed her or the EE off by calling a bottom tonight.

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  41. @Blythe

    What's the matter? Don't like the look of Turd's bottom? Some people just have no taste.

    @The World in General
    I just wish I could get time to make another purchase of physical. Already bought some last week but this is shaping up to be an excellent buying opportunity that shortly may pass away.

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  42. @Diamond

    Fort beat me to the response. I agree with all he said, especially read Maloney's book. IMO "Financial IQ" was very helpful, but I had also read "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" and at least one other Kiyosaki book prior to that. Kiyosaki was also a big advocate for teaching financial literacy in our schools. Too bad that didn't gain much traction. The "douchebag" thing was in quotes because it was someone else's comment about him. He doesn't project a very inspiring image in his interviews, I guess.

    I also recommend Charles Goyette's "The Dollar Meltdown" if you have not read it.

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  43. Ahhh...it certainly was liberating standing on my head upside down looking at Turd's chart.

    What did you guys see?
    I saw some stars and sorta of a bright light soon after...

    Word ver: uping

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  44. Holy crap, I've been away from reading the blog for a couple weeks, and wow it's a zoo. Definitely more clowns here now than the circus. Turd your new site can't get here fast enough!

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  45. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  46. Guys...pls just IGNORE.
    Don't be baited.

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  47. Norm McDonald is going to be on Conan in a few minutes...just had to post that. Can't figure out why...he does seem very familiar for some reason...

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  48. Get grip, Ozgur. Modern Tulip is US$ and your future SS paychecks.

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  49. .....Gold Aimed at $6,500/oz, Silver... $600/oz


    http://www.wealthwire.com/news/metals/1158

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  50. "When asked about silver specifically Schiff stated, “Remember it went up to $50 from $30 almost as fast as it came down. I think if you just take a look at the long-term trajectory it’s still a big bull market. I think that $50 high is not going to hold...We are going to take that ($50 high) out and move a lot higher. We are suckering a lot of new short sellers into the market as people are comparing it to a bubble now or 1980, the Hunt Brothers. I don’t think what we’ve had so far is anywhere close to what happened in 1980. We might get to that point at some time in the future, but we’re not there yet.


    We’ve created sufficient nervousness and anxiety in the market and enough shorts that we should have a nice wall of worry that we can climb, and ultimately a pretty good short covering rally. I think a lot of the people who have shorted this selloff in silver are going to lose a lot of money...We could have a dollar crisis as early as this fall and if we are having a dollar crisis then I would be expecting silver prices to be making new highs.”




    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/17_Peter_Schiff_-_Silver_to_Take_Out_%2450%2C_New_Shorts_are_Suckers.html

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  51. 34.25!

    Woo Hoo! Kiwi's in the green again! Bring on the Venezuelan Hookers and Colombian Blow!

    I hope that didn't offend anyone...

    ( hookers! blow! woohoo! )

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  52. Turd you must have garnered the (unwanted) attention of some very influential people, because they're really coming at you with both barrels lately. Hang strong, brother man.

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  53. I ask everyone to please ignore this "ozgur" person. He/she is a completely worthless troll who only seeks to destroy what we have built here.

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  54. Congrats kiwi for staying the course

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  55. @Ozgur -- kocum senin dotun kasinio anlasilan, ne bicim komentler bunlar lan???? negatif bi beklentinin olmasi baska, insanlari bole agagilaman baska... dot lalaesi seni..

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  56. H: I hear ya.
    I'm just trying to help and it sure seems that some would like to see us fail.
    That I am criticized for being unable to predict the unprecedented 5 consecutive margin hikes is downright silly.

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  57. Good stuff Turd. My only problem with it is I beleive that JPM and HBSC probably have minions fanned out who read this and other silver sites. I truly beleive this. They have the money certainly. Just check out how many paid Israeli kids there are crawling all over the net to defend their country across blogs whenever it gets in a pickle. I know it sounds paranoid but I don't care. This is easily the most criminally manipulated sector in all the indexes. Just look at when the selling happens and the nature of its waterfalls.

    I hate the notion of those sociopathic bastards reading your playbook, know what I mean?

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  58. Badu: We're getting closer. Had a 90-minute conf call with the developers today. Still hoping for June 1.

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  59. Wow, gold's looking really strong on the new HK exchange.

    http://www.hkmerc.com/en/market_news_data/today_quotes_news/HKG/index.html

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  60. TURD, i really believe that you are doing amazing job trying to handicap this market with your "pattern reading" skills and please ignore that Ozgir moron. I gave her response in a way he will get it... He keeps bs'ing... we have nothing against bearish views if and when presented in a human manner

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  61. What time will Ben speak tomorrow? 2pm? Is this the event:? http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=446398&cust=bloomberg-us&year=2011#top

    I hope there'll be a stream. :)

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  62. Latest COT May 13 (old, I know..but)

    This has been the rule, not the exception.
    It just makes one wonder what they're thinking.
    Remember how we all wondered why they were adding to their shorts before the massacre?
    When's the next COT?

    http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1305315231.php

    Commercial shorts 2:1 vs longs
    Large specs longs 3:1 vs shorts
    Small specs longs 2.5:1 vs shorts

    Word verify everget
    Will I ever get me some 30 dollar silver ever again? HA. Peace.

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  63. JoeKa-

    Thanks!

    (Of course, I'm not mentioning the 5 figure hit I took from the May Day Massacre when I sold....)

    But I do intend to "practice patience, and wait for the fat pitch" to sell, I want to ride this for a good while, make some serious change, and then SELL!!! Not hang on like a fool again. I'll just wait for Obi Wan Turdoni's sage advice

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  64. Shoe Shine: All views are welcome as we learn from each other.
    Arrogant, intentionally misleading views will always be deleted.

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  65. @Turd how fast you think this little bump will go before the dip, 1 day max?

    Thinking of doing a quick AGQ flip, already bought some FR.TO today near its low.

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  66. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  67. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  68. FWIW......this is an epic bull market in PMs....the type of trolls coming out in this beatdown is really expected but what is more important is to appreciate the price of the metals here and to buy with both hands.....this chop shop may be awhile longer and they might get it below 30 but in a few months you will kick yourself for not loading up here....gl to all

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  69. Ozgur fuck féin dul i leataobh.

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  70. Gold's action in the morning is interesting. They took it down and then quickly back up. It's almost as if they did not wanna leave a too cheap price behind for the LBMA physical market.

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  71. Guys should I attempt to get into AGQ for a short ride starting tomorrow or am I too late? Been studying the technicals and it seems it's been way oversold.

    I'm not trying to be greedy just trying to recoup some of my losses from earlier.

    Any advice would be great.

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  72. Turd-

    No problem if the EE attacks and this isn't a real bottom, you could just call it "Turd's manipulated bottom".....well, maybe not.

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  73. We are in the applying side of the Mars (Taurus) Trine Pluto (Cap) aspect. The current Sag moon will likely be one of the trigger or activation planets for this aspectal linkage leading into 20 May.

    Moon now in Sag(ruled by Jupiter), a fire sign, will likely spark and ignite the Mars Pluto trine energy as it approaches the 07 deg Cap point to conjunct with Pluto at 07 deg Cap.

    The cluster of Mercury, Venus and Mars currently liggering around the 02-05 deg Taurus will also be advancing forward towards the 07 deg point, and thus lending further sparks to this explosive set up.

    FWIW.

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  74. thaler: Please avoid the anti-Israel stuff. Thanks.

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  75. Kiwi...ur not alone in your pain brutha. Trust me.

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  76. Turd

    This is the BEST PM site and blog in existence - period.
    WE love your work and are grateful for your willingness to freely share you amazing skill set and talents with us. You make a huge difference for those of us that have been until now easy marks of the EE. Your helping a LOT of people!

    Thank you very sincerely =]

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  77. Again, I won't be able to stay up all night so that I can delete all of ozgur's bullshit posts.
    As always, please just ignore the pest and it might slink away on its own.

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  78. Turd you are here to help,. You never claimed to be omniscient or omnipotent. Just good at what you do. You expect us us to do our homework. I thought I was a smart investor, you showed me how ignorant I was and I thank you. I know the big run up in silver caught everyone off guard. Blythe is a sneaky wench and sure didn't think she would let silver run or have the power to do the smack down she did. But silver is still bouncing around $35.00 and consolidating a new bottom. Which before the big run up is what folks saw as a solid price for spot silver. Plus we are seeing a separation in spot price, paper and real silver.
    All I can say is well done Turd.

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  79. Thank you, Tesla. Much appreciated.
    I'm simply trying my best and the past two weeks have been no fun at all. None.

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  80. TF, you're the man. Always calm in a sh1t storm. Kudo's.

    I just KNOW it's the bottom. I'm back to wanting to puke, knowing I'm a stupid moron that just got lucky to ride the parabolic spike, and I don't ever want to sign into my account again while settling for restaurant table scraps (not that the wifey would do that).

    Last time I felt that way, I missed the equities bull from 2009 to late 2010.

    So y'all are good to go with Mr. Bottoms.

    HTT's (Happy Trading, Turdites)

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  81. My first bags of junk silver arrived today. $1000 in silver half-dollars from Tulving.

    Mostly Kennedys, but a good number of Franklins, Morgans and Walking Liberties. Pretty cool. I've never really seen them before.

    Also, I just noticed that Apmex is charging $6.49 premium for ASEs! Tulving is even charging $4.49. Damn! Tulving has descent inventory and premiums on the other stuff.

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  82. Clicked all the ad's Turd, as much as it pains me to sleep, time to call it a night, thanks for all you do.

    Pay it forward folks click an ad for our fine host.

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  83. Turd-

    I suspect things are going to get hot and heavy and the trolls are going to get really thick...is there someone on the "overnight crew" overseas that you could allow delete abilities.... might make things more pleasant. Just a thought.

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  85. Mr Ferguson,
    I find your thinking somewhat muddled. No matter. My agenda is set.
    Kind Regards,
    TFG

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  86. Rest well TF. Goodnight.
    JoeKa on guard duty til you chaps wake up.

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  87. @Turd

    Thanks for the site and for making it free. Cheers man get some rest.

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  88. Kiwi I lost 5 figures too. And I think I got the lesson that will keep me trading a long time. Like you I sat out some, then stuck my toe back in and today was my first full day of trading. Tough to be making $100 trades when $1000 was getting normal the last few days in April. Another change is selling on a small loss if I don't like the chart movement. Getting the hang of it though and today was my best day since the crash.

    On the other hand for the most part I let my longs keep running and adjusted the longs to be heavier in gold.

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  89. Today I sold my car... I have some serious dry powder ready to take to the coin shop! Cannot wait to see Turd's bottom!

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  90. TF,

    Great stuff, and thanks for keeping on eye on the kiddies tonight!

    Hey, I'm thinking of opening a futures account through TDAmeritrade/ThinkOrSwim. I HATE not be able to catch those off hour bottoms and tops, but I feel a bit like a moth to the flame. Any advice to a trepdatious trader?

    S>

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  91. Turd,

    Just thought of something. What you're able to do here, teach us the tech chart patterns and what-not... you're doing that without using your hands and a lot of other props, just chart and typed words (and sharpies) without verbal elaboration.

    That's a rare skill beyond understanding the markets. I think that's why you will be successful even if the EE attack wipes your bottom. :-)

    Now, if you can teach us that voodoo psychology never feel the puke master trader from Enron Hell state of mind, we could all make bank up AND down.

    But, hey, what fun would it be if it was all easy money?

    'Night.

    Oh, one more thing. What time zone are you in? You probably already said, but I don't recall. Thx.

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  92. smar: Pick a price at which you'd be comfortable buying, place an open (GTC) order, go to bed and wait to see if you're filled in the morning.
    Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. But it can sure jolt you awake faster than coffee some days.

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  93. fwiw I prefer "HOKOMEX" to "HKMEX" ... easier to pronounce ... :-)

    I think (hope) we have seen the bottom, too!

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  94. I think the 5 minute chart is making them a little nervous.
    Looks like an ARMY OF ANTS!!

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  95. HKMEX You can take Deliver in the US and everyelse. NICE

    http://www.hkmerc.com/en/products/products_information/index.html#A3

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  96. Happy-

    I guess I'm moving toward more of a "swing trader" or "short term investing" mentality.... if I know the call is going to eventually go my way, I will buy,sit through a downswing if I guessed wrong, suffer the pain, wait until it rolls back up and I hit my sell point and then sell....and then sit on the sidelines in cash waiting for the next fat pitch. It's gonna take patience, so we will see if I can do it. But trying to analyze every little up and down for a day trade has become too wearing to me.

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  97. Turd, keep up the good work, and thank you.

    For general consumption: how much of the recent EE action could have been preparing the price to the downside while they still could because they figured the HK exchange would keep them from having so much control in the future?

    ps. I have added small amounts to AGQ over the last week all around 35-35, nothing on margin, no dry powder remaining.

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  98. edit: should have read "around 34-35"

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  99. I see you received my invitation, Tim. Is everything set for tomorrow? Ready to push the button?

    ReplyDelete
  100. waiting... as "Ben" logs out and then logs back in as "Tim."

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  101. Midnight raid coming again?

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  102. The gang's all here, Ben. We're ready. He'll never know what hit him. It's a shame about the yogurt shop, though.

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  103. Yup, the posting trolls have now entered the ring. They do that when they become DESPERATE and know they are on the ropes. Watched it for years. Just keep reading their posts it becomes funny after a while. DO NOT RESPOND.

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  104. What is this shit, seriously.

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  105. 15 cent spike on netdania didn't show up on kitco.
    probably be a rally tomorrow, but wouldn't go too crazy here. dip some toes in.

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  106. You idiots don't have some kind of secret government email? You have to come here to plan your raids in public? Give me a break.

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  107. Fortinbras, lol.

    So we have Geithner, Bernanke & Obama all come out and let the world know that not raising the debt ceiling could lead to default.

    So this uncertainty over whether the debt ceiling is raised (it will be) should cause gold/silver to rise no? If the Geithner, Bernanke & Obama are correct, which they are, and the US would likely default without a debt ceiling raise, wouldn't the rational person shift funds away from the US$'s and into something real, like gold/silver?

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  108. Ben, Tim, remember what I told you. Not until 1 AM Eastern, ok guys?

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  109. Ben, Little Timmy, ..

    Shooting Blanks :)

    How pathetic!

    You too Ms Blythe(the tiger lady..)

    :)

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  110. Don't worry, Barack, I'll make sure she executes the plan on target.

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  111. Yeah...
    Who ever typing the cryptic BS... WASTE OF TIME :)
    Funny how some people enjoy putting time and effort in an attempt to Mislead and mis inform others... What a waste of oxygen.

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  112. You guys need to get Jamie off my ass. I've got to concentrate, and he keeps hovering. I have work to do. Don't worry, I'll time it as close to 1 AM as I can.

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  113. Total noob question. How does one trade the after hours/overnight gold and silver action? It seems there's a lot going on during these times. Is this as a result of futures trading?

    I need a beginners book or website recommendation if anybody can suggest. thanks.

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  114. Hey when you guys are done doing whatever little scam, can let me out of here? The food here at Rikers sucks ass. I've covered for you guys long enough.

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  115. See. I'd say that Mr Dimon is clearly sexist and patronizing... Obviously Blythe needs male oversight given her previous mistakes!

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  116. Actually, this is pretty funny stuff....

    Sorry I can't wait around for the 1am fireworks, you'll just have to start without me...

    Nighty nighty, Mr President, The Honorable Tim, The Honorable Ben, and Mistress Blythe!

    And of course, the Turd Herd...gonna be crazy tomorrow!

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  117. I've got your back, Ben. I know you'll need all hands on deck for this one.

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  118. So are doing what we discussed with regard to gold tonight, or are we implementing the other plan (Greece)?

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  119. Well it sounds like we've got everything nailed down and ready to roll. I can just imagine their faces in the morning!

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  120. I'm no Turd Ferguson when it comes to pattern recognition, but, apparently it takes exactly two minutes to post, log off of one account, log into another account, post, and repeat... I'm just sayin'. ;)

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  121. Wow, I have to stay up now. These goofs are thicker than the Mayflies here at the Ponderosa!!

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  122. Holy cow. What is going on here?

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-KBIdOsWQXG0/Tbm-h-7Js4I/AAAAAAAAAMs/PCBKqVwccWI/s1600/v46193_mother-of-god-super-troopers.jpg

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  123. I wonder why the head of the IMF isn't posting/part of the plan tonight? Oh, wait, never mind!

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  124. That's why we eat at Applebees instead, Vincent.

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  125. For those who may have gone into SDS I would like to warn them that after watching todays movement in the SP500 that I saw some alarming things. At the end of the day the price looked like it was moved with precision to a predetermined closing price. I saw the price move from .20 to .05 with shocking precision 8 or so times in the end of day volume. Many red ticks followed by precisely the number and magnitude of green ticks to plant that price right within a point of yesterdays close. My instincts are telling me that the 7 billion in monetization today was enough to control and reverse a downward bias in the way the SP500 was trading.

    I am now watching the SDS calls very closely. Tomorrow and Thursday there will only be 1.5 to 2.5 billion in monitization. I believe that for the next two days the true market trend will get to manifest itself. If the trend really wants to turn back upward in the short term I will get out. If I see a downturn on the day of .50% I shall stay in weds and thurs. On friday and every trading day for the rest of the month there is 7 billion in monitization and I do not believe that a downtrend can be sustained in the face of it.

    I knew viscerally and intellectually that the PM's were manipulated, however now I am seeing my trading hurt by broader manipulation as well I am not so sure I want to fly the finger at uncle gorilla.

    At this point I intend to shave a small portion of my trading account and practice sideways trading in the PM's for a time as soon as I am out of SDS.

    Good luck!

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  126. Glad to see you optimistic turd. I hope you are right.

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  127. @ Shoe Shine Boy

    kactan girdi gumus la sana, 48'den mi?

    29'a gelsinde senin ana paralari fx platformunda soyle bi yimirta gibi hupletsinler yarraaam..

    sen hissenetde fln vob forumunda gotten duduklenmeye devam et amk cocugu seni..

    gelmis burda 60 dk'lik chartta silver analizi yapan amerikali gotverenin topiginde bana ayar veriyorsun, anasini siktigim, tut sen gumusu daha, ananin amina girsin o gumus.... gotveren seni

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  128. Silver at 34.40, but ASEs are seling for 46 on Ebay. Amazing! Thy guy at the local coins shop says he is getting 45 to 50 for MOrgans.

    Seperation!

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  129. Click below to read if DSK was set up--as he claimed he would be--in response to his outspoken policies against the dollar and Fed:

    http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/sdk-had-dollar-banksers-and-fed-in-his.html

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  130. @ DR. J...
    Right? Generics have been selling no lower than $40/oz. on the bay.
    local shop here is around $45 for morgans also.
    Spot+ $20 on fractional gold eagles.

    ver. word: suction... !

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  131. silber,
    Interesting article. I talk lots with a history prof a few doors down and we both agree that conspiracies are fun and that we probably don't know the half of them.

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  132. Gramp,
    My break even on physical is at 35--bought some at 46 two weeks ago. Ouch! So I comfort myself looking at the real prices on ebay and the stores. But when I consider that I only paid for it with fiat, it still seems like a deal. We just would have spent the fiat on something that would devalue had we not bought the silver, or I might have lost it to the market manipulators trying to trade.

    Can't sleep tonight. We'll see what happens at 1.

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  133. POSX just gapped down about 15c ...is that what we are waiting for?

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  134. My bad that POSX gap down was an hour ago - nice to see some reality peeking through though huh?

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  135. I must say, this Blythe, Barack, Timmy, Ben, Janet shit is funny. Reminds me of some of the crap we used to pull on the Yahoo boards.

    To the newbies here, now is the time to be buying physical PMs. If you notice how the premiums have increased and availability has tightened, that's the signal to get your physical metal now.

    If the price of gold and silver go down further, demand for physical will increase further so while you may be waiting for a dip, the dip may not help you acquire physical cheaper than today and waiting may prevent you from getting physical metal altogether.

    The EE may be able to control the paper price but you can crap all over them when you take your money out of their system and exchange your worthless paper for real money.

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  136. I share an alma mater with Kiyosaki and can attest to his douchebaggery. On a visit and subsequent lecture by him he made sure to illustrate his point of not being a sucker, using a vicious example of when he was a helicopter pilot in Vietnam, and calling in several other pilots to be shot down by the enemy as opposed to putting himself in danger. His words, not mine. That's pretty much all you need to know about the guy; his books are there to make suckers out of you, not to pass on any useful advice. He is pretty much in line with most graduates from that school, anyway.

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  137. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWJX9yUKJeQ

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  138. Dr. J,
    I did about the same thing w/ a few buys on the run-up... oops,NBD!
    Have a decent 'core' @ a bit more comforting price level.
    Like you said, We would have spent the $ on something else that would have depreciated anyway... that is part of my personal theory behind buying physical. It is a way for me to own something of value, but if I have $ in my Bank acc. I spend it, and it's gone. Buying phys. is FUN, and I believe a great way to augment what few $ get set aside for savings. Best of both worlds... the thrill of the buy, and the value of saving all at once!!
    it's late i just rambling now... :)

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  139. Gramp.
    You are so right. It is fun buying physical. I have really enjoyed the shopping and collecting the past six months,

    I am turnign in now. Looks like no 1am attack.

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  140. Trend is still down. If you plan to buy the dip, please do not go all in.

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  141. Upside breakout for gold & silver imminent!

    ----- Clive Maund

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  142. heavy selling. whoa. that's a big candle down.

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  143. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  144. no biggie man, it just broke through a level of resistance and now is retesting that level as its new support

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  145. The Russell Napier (of CLSA) interview by FT.com, as posted on Zero Hedge, is very interesting and thought provoking.

    In summary, he thinks Treasury yields will rise (there will be monetary tightening) not due to any action of the Fed, but due to emerging markets (think China) deciding to revalue their currencies.

    The EMs have had inflation thrust upon them because they've been forced to print money in order to keep their currencies from revaluing vs. USD.

    When they decide to fight such inflation they will do so by revaluing their currencies, which means they will stop the selling of their own currencies and the buying of Treasuries/USD. This will force up yields on Treasuries.

    So, he thinks that global liquidity will dry up, commodities will fall and we'll go into a deflationary shock, with the S&P falling to 400.

    He doesn't mention gold or silver, but his view that we will see a rise in real interest rates (contrary to what the Fed wants) would likely be negative for PMs. Just what the impact of all these events would have on the status of the USD and the potential for any gold-backed new reserve currency is beyond me.

    Anyway, lots to consider but worth taking the time to view and ponder.

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  146. Good article... Too tired to raed anmyore - night

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  147. downtrend?
    What downtrend are you seeing?
    Is that over the past 10 business days?
    I'm looking at the last ten years and laughing at this sort of statement.
    Are you serious?

    I'm serious here... are you seriously telling me that PM's are in a downtrend?

    It's stupid to go "all in" at any time.
    You don't know if there will be a better dip in a few weeks.

    But, on the trading fringe, why should I sit on cash dollars? There's no fricking point to holding cash when I can just atm more FRN's from the trading account.

    I'd rather hold SLV than FRN.

    At least then, I can see a decent interest rate.

    And, what is going to happen in the next 12 hours?

    Let me guess...
    When London opens, they talk down the price to 33.00-33.50 range and
    then open in NYC and talk it down to <33 again...?

    Then, see it boucing off the sub-33 low to a globex at 34 and then reopen in HKMex/TOCOM at 34.50?

    uh...yeah....

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  148. Pre-London already undoing some of the Asian gains.

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  149. @Strongside--

    I don't see anything to be bullish about here. At best, some signals to cover shorts if you are short. The 10 year trend is interesting (for gold, not silver), but the stock market is teetering on the brink. Metals will go the same direction as the SP.

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  150. POSX causing some jitters... pathetic, really.

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  151. @blorf - agree with you on NYSE and S&P

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  152. $34.50 just got took out on July..

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  153. Silver prices (last 34.58) shoot up as European stocks open higher.

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  154. Kiyosaki seems to be full of himself. I haven´t read his books, but on his blog he sure is on and on about his wins, never a word about his losses.

    I bet he´s making more money with his books than his readers are. Nevertheless his main points are true ofcourse. Being self employed, look for win/win situations, buy into things that make money instead of cost you money. All a little bit obvious to me.

    On the other hand he says you should focus on one thing until it is a winner. That doesn´t seem to be what he is doing right now.

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  155. Mini short covering in progress. Breach of low $35s will certainly bring even more short covering scramble.

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  156. Some of the newcomers to precious metals may be interested that Mike Maloney has uploaded the full version of "Why Gold and Silver" to his youtube channel:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Bb-Z2Zdueg&feature=channel_video_title

    Essential viewing.

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  157. I really don't understand the criticism of Kiyosaki. This guy is great!

    He opened the eyes of a lot of ordinary people to etrepreneurship. I suppose his book "Rich dad, Poor dad" has been the book which has had the most influence on me, to change the mindset of "poor" to "rich".

    He has made some of the greatest points I've ever heard. It is indeed the lack financial education that is one (if not the) biggest problems for most people.

    I suppose his books have less of an impact if you are already a succesful entrepreneur making millions a year in passive income... but for everyone who is not, his books are must read.

    And if people get offended by some of the things he says in interviews,... I guess it would be hard to try to accomplish the same things he has.

    My conclusion: if you are still new to entrepreneurship, please read Kiyosaki's books and make up your own mind. As he's said himself: only succesful people have critics. and you want to learn from succesful people who have made the commitment of teaching others to do the same. Kiyosaki is probably the best example of such a person.

    BTW: Kiyosaki is an admitted gold and silver bug, who was the reason I was introduced to PM's 2 years ago. Thanks Robert!

    PS: check his 4 May goldseekradio interview; it's great!

    http://radio.goldseek.com/nuggets.php

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  158. @Michael: that video link has been removed.
    Do you have another link?

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  159. @ goudzilver.

    Good points. I share the same view about Kiyosaki. If I compare my life (and especially the financial part) before and after I read the book it's truly a big difference. The things he says are so obvious, but still 99% of the people don't do it.

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  160. This is why
    Why we fight
    Why we lie awake
    And this is why
    This is why we fight

    When we die
    We will die
    With our arms unbound

    And this is why
    This is why
    Why we fight
    Come hell

    This is why we fight

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  161. From Mike Maloney re. the full upload of "Why Gold and Silver"

    "Hi guys, I uploaded the full movie but it had a video glitch! So I'm going to fix it and reupload as soon as I can. Thanks for your patience!"

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  162. Hi

    the FarEast market chart >>>>
    http://www.hkmerc.com/en/market_news_data/today_quotes_news/HKG/index.html

    Does anyone have a URL for the COMBINED markets to do a quick comparison?

    Thanks

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  163. Slight pause mode in Gold and Silver at the moment in London. Reckon we get a small sell-off prior to the AM fix before upward resumption again.

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  164. UPDATE (see bottom of article) on whether or not DSK was set-up because he opposed the dollar and the Fed:

    http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/SDK-had-dollar-banksers-and-fed-in-his.html

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  165. #PM Coin Shop update

    No Silver Eagles to be had (except for generic 'American Eagle' silver rounds that are non US Mint).

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  166. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  167. OK, who put the sock full of troll-nip on the floor?

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  168. Ozgur,

    We get it. We really do. You don't like Turd's analysis and you don't like this site. Message received loud and clear.

    So please could you now fuck jolly well off. Thanks so much in advance.

    Diplocat

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  169. @kiwi
    I've been busy doing DD on some miners. Cream Minerals, Commerce Resources and South American Silver are the ones I'm liking right now.

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  170. Diplocat

    What miners do you follow?

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  171. The CEF (Central Canadian Fund) 50% gold, 50% silver bullion made 3 bottom lows in the last roughly 10 days. $19.62, $19.77, and yesterday $19.67.
    Thanks Turd for all the help.

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  172. Guys DO NOT egg this person on pls.

    This only adds fuel to the fire and will detract the thread. Ignore completely.

    Many thanks.

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  173. @tradingpaper,

    Hope you're all over CEF at this juncture.

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  174. @Lester

    I'm tempted to get back into some of the miners, especially the silver ones, and especially at this level... but I had a big chunk of my portfolio tied up in miners since January, which did absolutely nothing, just wandered up and down around the 0 gain point.... and if the stock market dips in the "QE gap" the miners will probably go down again for a while.

    Having said that, I do agree that they are heavily oversold right now, and probably a great deal for a short term trade... but AGQ gives me more than enough to worry about in the short term.... :-o

    Best of luck with your trades, I'd love to hear how they work out!

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  175. JoeKa,

    Ignore is the best way.

    Actually I am getting a hint out of their desperation that tells you when to pile on, ON the LONG....

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  176. JoeKa,

    what is your trading strategy for today?

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  177. @JoeKa

    Good point, I was weak....message acknowledged.

    I guess you got to watch the dip back down to $34.20, that must have been no fun at all...

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  178. @all,

    Me, I intend to ignore the extraneous noise and focua ON TOPIC.

    ReplyDelete
  179. Not off to a good start. That was FOCUS that I wanted to type.

    ReplyDelete
  180. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/geithner-wants-debt-ceiling-deal-passed-by-july-2011-05-18

    "If Republicans try to impose that plan on this country as a condition for raising the debt limit, then they will own the responsibility for the first default in our history, with devastating damage to the nation," he said.


    "At the worst moments in the crisis...you saw people basically say they want to be in dollars, in Treasurys, and we need to preserve that. We want to act to earn that confidence over time, and not take advantage of it."

    And if one does not have that confidence, one preserves/protects their wealth through gold/silver.

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  181. TRE has seen some very nice basing action, and is fundamentally poised to jump to two digits very soon.
    - we expect the Kigosi site to receive full producition permit soon; this site has tons ( literally ) of top gravel full of gold, which is cheap and fast to extract i.e ~$50/ounce. The crushers have been "sampling" for months
    - once the production permit is in hand, they can announce the gold extracted to date
    - this should be good for a big pop
    - all the pieces are in place, after years. Transition from explorer to first junior then medium producer will happen fast from this point
    - with a barrage of great news rest of year, the big short will be taken out once and for all
    - fyi pruduction permits already in hand for Buckreef and Lunguya
    - I'm biased and major holder, but my prediction is that TRE will appreciate more than any gold stock for next 2-3 years. Plus, pay dividends in gold.

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  182. @Lester,

    I started nibbling from yesterday....

    But put in right stooped out calculations handy.

    But I have hunch, Turds #2 again prove to be good Entry price for going long.

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  183. Don't "wrastle" with a pig. You both get dirty. The pig likes it.

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  184. Turd, I have been in the web development industry for a long time — especially with building online communities with some successful companies. So, if you ever have questions that you aren't sure about send me a message and I would be happy to send you my references and give my opinion...free of course :)

    ReplyDelete
  185. @kiwi,

    My strategy to avoid share manipulation is to keep moving down in market cap. IMO smaller issues are harder for hedgies to use for their spread strategies. That's why my interest in CMA.V and CCE.V. Both have good resources, good management, decent share structure and reasonable volume to keep them liquid enough to trade, yet should be out of reach of the fast $$$ crowd and their games.

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  186. Oh, and I can't tout South American Silver enough.

    Monster sized low cost Silver/Indium deposit moving to development.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/South-American-Silver-Files-iw-2861940611.html?x=0&.v=1

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  187. What if the feds are aiming to take the private pension funds (e.g. 401k and IRA) and one way to do it is to tank all alternative markets making Treasuries the only attractive option. As noted on zero hedge, the feds have already borrowed from the government pension to shore up treasuries. So what I am saying is they will engage in QE3 but not until after they have taken our private pension funds.

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  188. Pat, Mr. Sinclair's been stating that the shorts will have a religious experience. At some point, probably even now, these short sellers, and particularly naked short sellers, are/attempting/will attempt/be forced to cover and perhaps that's what we're seeing with the miners.

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  189. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  190. Hey Kiwi, good morning mate! :)

    Well it was fun to watch if you got a chance to add to positions. ;)

    @Lester: I'm trading XAG and I got in a lot at 34 and another smaller lot at 34.12. I've got an even smaller lot at the 34. 22 and 34.35 limit areas.

    That said dry powder is available for re-dips below 34.

    Those who bit the bullet and bought at 33 ytd are the smart ones. I'd rather sacrifice some profit and wait for the re-break of 34.

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  191. @caramel,

    It is painful to endure periods when the miners as a group languish. When they come to life though, wwhoooeee it's fun.

    IMO it's about WHOOOEEE time. And remember folks, keep your arms and legs inside the ride at all times.

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