Wednesday, May 4, 2011

The Return of Nostradumbass

Got to admit, the last time I felt this lousy and defeated was the night of January 27, when I wrote the entry linked below. Please take a few minutes to review. Not only are all of the points I made still valid, maybe my emotions have once again called the bottom. We can only hope.

Many have asked about the miners. First of all, I guess we now know why the miners stunk up the joint for the past two weeks. For years, the miners have been used as a reliable indicator of future, short-term price trend in the metals. In our euphoria, most of us failed to fully heed their recent warning. Live and learn (again), I guess.
Now, the question becomes, when do we buy them again? Well, first, we have to look at a silver chart, a gold chart and the HUI.
All three look like they could go a little farther down but not much. A bottom in the metals and the miners may be close at hand. For buying the miners, let's watch and see if the HUI can move just a shade lower, down near 540 or slightly below. At that point, it would be very close to it's 200-day moving average, which is an area from which it has rebounded before. As you look at all of the individual charts below, notice how many are just a shade above their critical buying points, too. To me, this says that we should give this all a couple more days. Let the HUI move toward 540, gold toward 1490 and silver toward 38. The convergence of all three at support levels should be enough to stop the bleeding and begin the reversals.

Here are your silver charts. Pick your favorite and pick an entry spot with which you're comfortable.

And here are your gold miners:

OK, that's it for today. I think I'm gonna go get drunk and forget about shit for a while.
I'll have more later only if I sober up and/or something significant happens.  ;)
Turd out.

p.s. The new site will have a live chatroom. We're looking to perhaps integrate the current offline chatroom to save time and expense. Does anyone have the web address and current password?

7:00 pm EDT UPDATE:
I'll try to type legibly but this is how I feel right now:
I want you to re-read this:
"Second, you absolutely must read this. If you don't fully grasp it the first time, go back and read it again.
33,000,000 ounces means the Comex only has enough silver to settle just 6,600 contracts. That, my friends, is the financial equivalent of 
blood in the water.
Please understand, all of the recent Cartel-inspired bloodletting is 
directly related to this issue. They needed to scare sufficient quantities of specs out as well as remind potential "sharks" that they still make the rules and won't go down easily. They also desperately need to buy time, too. It's worked.
But the sharks are still there, watching and waiting. If you observed the action Sunday night, you saw that the steep drop was not so much an EE beatdown as it was a total absence of bids (buyers). This trend has continued yesterday and today. Our BoS seem to be regrouping and planning their next move, all the while the price continues to come in and offer even more attractive entry points for them."

And then read this:
Be patient. We've lost a battle but the war continues.
A moment is coming where, in their arrogance, they will have overplayed their hand.
This may be it. TF


  1. Thanks for all your work Turd.....keeping my fingers crossed we have seen the worst.

  2. Silvia Rogers

    Welcome Aboard, Mate!!

  3. I'm hitting the scotch hard tonight after the kids go down.

  4. @Fleve
    I think you are picking up on the same ~conspiracy~ signposts that @fortinbras and I discuss at end of last post.

    Why would all commods (and equity markets for that matter)start to reverse? (Well, we KNOW why the stock market would ;)

    Point is:
    I think something BIG is going down.
    Things ARE 100% NOT AS THEY SEEM!
    TPTB/EE/NWO can take silver to $1 if they wanted to and everyone here should know it.

    Does that mean I'm selling my stack?
    Well, in all honesty, I *DID* sell/trade some physical today.

    I hang my head in shame, but live to fight another day....

    ~~~"The Jeepster"

  5. dd... I'm doing it with bourbon.

    Fleve... see what 22f and I were talking about regarding ALL commodities getting whacked, but still no real rise in the POSX.

    22f... in response to your response, I'm not sure why on the timing either... it smells of desperation, but again, "why now?"

  6. I think all there's left to do is:

  7. My miners list is finishing green. F' em.

    Eric Out.

  8. Ag 38 would be a really nice D to F'in B!

    Turd Town, think the new generation of "english royals" will be any different from the past? You need to think again...

  9. @Fortinbras et al

    I think they were hoping the BinLaden news would send the equities markets SKYWARD. They used the advance warning to "juice" the commodities markets by hiking rates and making it more expensive to trade silver than gold. Then, with London & some Asian mkts closed, they start their "Hail Mary" on Sunday overnight. The rest snowballs and they simply press the accelerator a few more times as it goes over the cliff.

    Pretty diabolical.
    Only one problem: stocks didn't rally.
    With the exception of a few plants, mobs didn't take the street shouting 'USA! USA!" No, people were too busy trying to pay for their groceries/gas/whatever...

    The big question still is WHY?
    Why now? Why this hard?
    What are they hiding?

    ~~"The Jeepster"

  10. ya, the euphoria seems to have been taken away from the majority of people.... seems like a good sign... hopefully we head higher in the near future

  11. I raise my glass in salute.

    Is it just my paranoia, or is using stops like painting targets on one's back? I understand the need to use them to take emotion out of trading (I wish I had some in for AGQ this week!) but I wonder sometimes. I guess if setting tham is an art then I'm no artist. Too long or too short, never just right.

    Is that just the nature of the beast?

  12. Turd (and others) - how much do the expected actions of the EE/TPTB, and the cycles which they seem to operate on, impact your prognostication? Just wondering if the game is traditional chart watching, or if it has evolved into a game of 'guess their next move.' I guess what I mean to ask is whether one can roughly figure out positions and holdings and try to guess how and when they'll act. I see you doing it to some extent, just wondering how much of a role it plays.

  13. Here's an interesting chart from none other than Paul Krugman. Oil Priced in Euros

  14. Bought XAG 39.285, basically 4pm close. May not be a winner as it was more a boredom bid. Will dump fast if we start making lower lows :)
    Stop right under 39.

  15. I'm thinking we get a short term pop up to $43-$44 when the Chinese come back from their least that's what I hope.

  16. Interesting article that came out today.
    Wonder if this somehow correlates to the mysterious market action:
    <a href=">Bin Laden’s war against the U.S. economy</a>

    ~~~"The Jeepster"

  17. I think the 200 day on silver about 32 would be the ultimate low in this correction. Hopefully, it will form a long term cup base hugging the MA there. Actually, I hope it forms a base hugging the 50 day MA which is where the price is now.

    What you like to see is lowering volume on pullbacks and this.....obviously is not what's going on here. Silver almost 'had to correct based on that parabolic move up. I think the best we can hope for is for it to start hugging the 50 day and trending sideways for a few weeks before trying to form the right side of a 'cup'. Hopefully, volume will start to dry up soon....though I don't expect that. Man-I'd like to see some Asian buyers step in here. But...why would seems it's smart now not to try to catch the knife but be patient and see where this puppy starts to base out and consolidate. Hopefully it's here or very close. That's what I'm doing for now. Let this chart find a bottom, then base for an extended time instead of trying to guestimate the bottom.

  18. What is the reason that gold is down too, as for silver there is the JPM/Comex scam, but for gold..?

  19. I don't think this has been posted yet: Mexican central bank has bought 100 tonnes of gold:

  20. silver down, slw up, finally a start.
    down since apr 8. earnings out may 9th.

  21. Im missing something here.

    Gold and silver are priced at what they were two weeks ago, which was their 30 year highs.
    Q1 financials for miners are going to be mega-awesome.
    Miners are going to presumably keep producing at these $1500+ and $39+ levels.
    Miners PEs are going to be miniscule.
    Miners remain THE MOST undervalued asset class going.

    What would you trade instead?
    GLD and SLV farces?
    COMEX futures and options on their corrupt exchange?
    APPL and Netflix?
    Get miners and if it so happens they dont double it a month, well, you'll just have to suck it up, and wait a quarter.

  22. When all else fails, there's always humor.
    Perhaps Ben Bernanke should give another speech.

  23. Turd,

    Pour yourself a tall glass of pineapple juice and lots of coconut rum. Always puts a smile on my face! So were dealing with a false alarm. So we make the best of it. We got extra time to load up that safe.

  24. I don't think you need to look far for a big conspiracy. The President just kicked off his re-election campaign, wrapped up some loose ends (bin Laden, eligibility) and told the AG to go after speculators.

    They know that $5.00 gas will cause another recession and a different President.

    Still mostly in cash but I'm doing research on how to position myself for a commodities takedown. Obviously they can't print oil, gold or bacon, but I think that they have some leverage.

    Big flashing red lights to me:

  25. This will cheer everybody up, my favorite movie in the world.
    Jamie Dimon meets W.C. Fields

  26. Is the new site up for testing? What IM server are you using? Jabber?

  27. You all remember that crazy $1 million dollar Jul 25 SLV put that was purchased 2 weeks ago?

    Do you realize that the trade profits the most if SLV falls to $36.00 by May 21 expiry. Just a hmmmm....kinda thing.

  28. DONT DISPAIR EVER: With whole sale liquidation prices on silver today. I wonder how fast it's taken back up to globex close last FRYday; 47.94. Panicked industries are scooping up every last ounce of silver at these prices. bankster fraudsters have to move it up fast or it's all gone. May be the rat basturds knew this already, going into May delivery? It's all over for the crimex. If not? July will be the crimex knock out punch. I know physical silver by investors is going out the door by the tons today.

  29. Turd, you predicted a dip in silver prices for the first few weeks of May and we got it. I only have a few hundred fiat dollars to spend every few weeks on silver and use your predictions to time my purchases. I was ready this morning, awaiting the dip and I felt pretty comforatble to spend my two hundred fake dollars on 5 ozs of Buffalo rounds from Gainesville for $40.02/oz. I'm not complaining the price came down another dollar while I was away from the computer. We all can't stay logged on 24/7. At least because of your forcasting, I was able to jump in and purchase my meager amount at a price I felt comfortable with. I've been able to accumulate quite a stash of physical silver the past five months thanks to your efforts and selflessness. Your work has allowed me to get the biggest bang for my fiat dollar while making these small but frequent purchases. Keep it up. Meanwhile I've got to go squirrle away some more counterfeit money for the next dip. Thanks, again and don't get discouraged. Like you've said many times, the fundamentals have not changed.

  30. How could the miners be going down when silver was on it way up to $50? Manipulation (shorting)?

  31. For all those cry babies out there, look at this:

  32. Turd;

    First of all, fundamentally nothing has changed. The world is still bankrupt. Secondly, the financial news out the last two weeks is horrible. But pomo driven markets have ignored it. That cannot continue.

    Secondly, I expect another huge leg down in all markets when pomo quits. After a few weeks of that, a desperate Obama and Ben will introduce the latest incarnation of QE3. That's when silver and gold will skyrocket. At that point, the entire world will begin to realize that we are truly bankrupt.

    Let's let this thing find a bottom. The margin requirements were ridiculous yet we still have no position limits. The game is truly rigged...but eventually- that too will fail.

  33. Don't be so tough on yourself TF. We were running up the score and it was too easy. Being in the markets is tough and demands discipline. I/we forgot that little detail. The PM market right now reminds me of the internet boom in the nineties, we tend to get greedy and take chances. Some want to find someone to blame for decisions they made themselves. I'm in the pm market because to me it makes sense. That hasn't changed, I want to protect the money I have. Even I can figure out that if my money (USD) is losing value... not a good thing. If someone has a better idea, I'd love to hear it.

  34. Eric#1 - Got a couple of those Mexican 50 Gold Peso Centenario clinkers today at the low. My first ones. Wish I would have them to clink together tomorrow for Cinco de Mayo!

  35. Seems like this is the time to take advantage of a price for silver below $40. I am talking physical here.

    I have been buying Eagles but want to buy something else like Maples or Philharmonics. Also I want to buy them in smaller sizes (i.e. half ounce, quarter ounce). Is there any drawback to buying these as opposed to Eagles?

  36. In my view paper was just a way to enslave us all with debt while the real wealth is stolen. I bought another 100 oz's physical when it was $48 and Im happy now I just get to buy more. there game is going to come to an end at some point and dont be a dolltard just look at the fundamentals they have no exit strategy they just dont want anyone to catch on until its too late. We need to stay vigilant day to day but dont get caught up in their games just keep stockpilling silver.

  37. Dumped 4pm XAG 39.45 for pocket change gain. Low volume not good for holding...

  38. My miners finished up a descent tick.

    Here's a market update from Peter Schiff:

  39. @johnboatcat, Eric#1
    As soon as I dig out of my recent hole by careful trading, I'm getting me some of those too :)

  40. I'm SEVERAL coronas ahead of you Turd...

  41. Brian...Exactly. In regards to the Bankster Gangsters...Eat crap. After a drop 20% drop in silver, a 3% drop in Gold and 5% in oil the POSX is only up a blip. What a disaster and a blatant attempt to try to get a handle on runaway inflation. Correction on the way,QE3 or some other fancy name for it on the way followed by another bullrun of inflationary hedges.

  42. @John

    if you are looking for smaller silver coins then consider Junk silver. 1964 and before US dimes quarters and Halves are all 90% silver. (the money used to be real money!!)

    One dollar face value has .715 oz of silver, you do the math from there. These are typically sold for very low premium to spot especially compared to eagles.

    there are advantages in that they are smaller amounts, easily recognizable if SHTF, and the cheapest way to get the most Oz for your money.

    good luck!

  43. most for your money in coins that is...

  44. Turd - I hope that the weight of responsibility youre putting on yourself isnt causing you personal stress. Sounds like you have a lot going on in your life otherwise (owning and operating your own businesses, etc). You sound like a pretty successful guy, i think we're all lucky to be able to have your insight and daily guidance. We shouldnt delude ourselves into thinking you know more about whats happening than humanly possible, and god knows we shouldnt be TRADING with that assumption (right?). Anyway, just hoping that the hard stories some folks are sharing here arent putting personal stress on your conscience.

    BTW for some humors sake - if you havent already seen this video, i suggest you watch it asap! (its only 1 minute long)

  45. M.KEISER is da best, :)

  46. 3 little words...or is it really 1 big one?

    Canadian Bill

  47. I've been buying physical for two years now (largely on advice from your postings at Zerohedge before you opened your own blog), I didn't hesitate to buy some more today as it bottomed out just above US$39.

    Turd I rely on your input as well as the collective knowledge of the commentariat here at the Watchtower. An occasional setback is to be expected but I will not be deterred. Keep up the good work and advice.

    I look forward to your further postings.

    A large glass of rum,seasoned with a bit of ice and fruit juice, does sound good about now anyways.

  48. OK ~ My conspiratorial mind is running.

    WHAT IF...

    Major Name Fed-Backed Bank (MNFBB) places a mysterious bet that the SLV etf (ponzi-derivitive) falls to $36.00 by May 21 expiry.

    Same bank (or their buddy) shorts the metal (technically) to jostle the price/shake the tree.

    Finally, with all the CA$$$$$H they make on their "amazing" prediction, they buy back into the metals as real assets and ride 'em back up.

    This could be their scheme!

    ~~~"The Jeepster"

  49. I saw Turds list of miners. Any other suggestions to look at?

  50. The mainstream press has many negative articles on silver and how the margin call raises of last week knocked silver and other commodities down. Is this a prelude for Obama and congress to do something stupid, stupid, stupid?
    Look at this to see where PM's really stand against other assets. Buy silver on this great opportunity.

  51. Sorry, wrong article. This is the one.

  52. @ SSK
    You asked earlier for my entry point for First Majestic (AG)
    I have a first position already from last year at 3.40
    and my next entry in the docket is for 1x tranche at 16.35 area.
    If it gets close but ends the day like at 16.60 ....I might either buy it there,or remove my bid in docket and wait for the next day and watch for the closest bottom near 16..... and maybe stink bid below 16 somewhere.
    One of my newsletters I follow is recommending waiting until 14....yikes...thats pretty far down. I dont mind owing some at 16...and 15 and 14.

  53. @Eric# 1
    did you get that coin we talked about

  54. @Turd -- I am not sure if this is the one you mean with regards to chat room -- this is the only one I know of, and has not really seen too much action since the first few days:

  55. CNBS just said that Carlos Slim has been actively short selling for several week now a targeted percentage (not stated) of his future silver mine production as a hedge. Wonder what volume we can attribute to this!

  56. Turd, what can one say rock man, keep up the good work.

    Too you trolls in the back ground sucking up all the free info,.... we are coming for you.

  57. @John, lists the current melt value of US "junk" silver. They are a great choice for easily recognized coins of known demonination and purity.

    Dmon is quite right about the lower premiums, I have socked away about $200.00 face value (about $5,000.00 current fiat value)over the last couple of years just in case it comes down to buying stuff with silver. You wouldn't want to spend Eagles and get fiat as change.

    Some people look oddly at foreign coins, even the top-drawer stuff like Philharmonics. In a TEOTWAWKI situation you probablky don't want to be trying to prove the purity of your coins to some piker.

  58. I posted this question in another thread somewhere, but where is a good place to buy physical silver/gold online? Is it bad that the purchase isn't anonymous? Anyway, any advice appreciated.

  59. I need an edit function .....or I need to learn to type!

  60. The harder the shakeout.. the bigger the potential returns. The run-up did not occur with bi-hourly updates on CNBC. Now we have nothing but "bubble talk" and "silver crash" headlines. Three margin hikes, commando theatre, speculator disinformation. Doesn't the legitimate correction appear to have been when the metal dropped back from $49? Seems it should be in the 40's and anything lower is a shakeout. Once all the silver noise quiets down, there will be another run-up.

  61. CD: Thanks. Do you have the password?

  62. Turd said ...
    Many have asked about the miners. First of all, I guess we now know why the miners stunk up the joint for the past two weeks. For years, the miners have been used as a reliable indicator of future, short-term price trend in the metals. In our euphoria, most of us failed to fully heed their recent warning. Live and learn (again), I guess.


    let me just say many of us look at these things and all we see is bullishness. My biggest fault in trading is my super bullishness. If one is trading just stocks and you are down time will heal all wounds. If one is trading options or on margin the stakes are higher and time can be an enemy. I guess what I am trying to say is Turd don't beat yourself up if that is what you are doing. Realistically, you probably don't need to hear this from me but I just wanted to say that I get caught up in a bullish view and it has nothing to do with your postings. Long term I am very bullish and it is hard for me to shrink that down in the near term. I guess my point is what I have learned in 33+ years of bible reading is ... DON'T MISS THE LESSON'S.

    Thanks for being human Turd.

  63. Drinking? You bet. It's 5am here and I've had quite a few. But not out of despair - no, indeed, in celebration! Because in a few weeks these prices are going to seem so ridiculously cheap. Unbelievably cheap. We should be rejoicing at the bargains! This is such a grand mispricing mistake by Mr. Market, who is handing us free money on a silver and gold platter.

  64. Don't sweat it Turd, you're not a dumbass. There are times where I wondered if you were a soothsayer, or a witch, but never a dumbass. Cheers. :)

  65. @Nicholas,
    I have had good luck with Monarch Metals, decent prices, OK premiums good shipping. I have found a local coin shop (Abbotts Coin in Birmingham, Michigan) they do a good OTC trade with reasonable premiums on ASE and junk. They have a website, I don't know if they do mail order. I stopped mail purchases for security reasons after hearing a couple of horror stories.

  66. Turd: I made a shit house full of money since last August based primarily on your input and those who post on your site. I would have made a lot more if I had listened to you completely. However, I, like everyone else on this site, takes the information and does what they will with it. Last week you got me spooked and I sold off about half of my position. As bad as the last three days were, I still have 80% of what I gained in the last 9 months. I lost the equivalent of a new pickup truck this week. If I hadn't found this site, I wouldn't have had it to lose in the first place. Am I happy about this week, no. Am I happy about the last nine months, no, I'm ecstatic. I am a very unsophisticated trader so I covered all of my physical with ZSL shares a couple of times this week and have done so permanently this morning so am and will continue to trade exactly sideways until this thing establishes a real bottom. Hang in their big time. We're all gonna need each other for more than trading information as this new world unfolds.

  67. bought pzg today twice so im green slightly tried to buy exk at 9.65 watched go down sold when it got back to 9.62 for a 4cent loss then watched it go on to high of 10.20 and close around 10. try again tomorrow on exk. if i waited till 9.45 been low of the day. i think pzg might get back 3.4o range again soon

  68. The only way to hurt these suckers is to buy the metal. All this paper-work is to get their hands on more physical. They are crooks plain and simple. So the value of my ozs. are down? So what? I'm in for the long run and I expect crap like this. Do what Santa says and relax. Margin is a no no in these markets unless you're a pro.

  69. Bob Chapman on the silver smackdown.

  70. How low does it have to fall before you people realize you #$%#ed up BADLY!

  71. Make that 4 margin requirement hikes now.. hahaha.

  72. CME raises again???? WTF

  73. If that is true, and they did raise it a 4th time, then it's time we take action.

  74. For those of you still freaked out and sitting up on the ledge, go listen to the Eric Sprott interview over at Kingworldnews; the man knows more about the PM market then almost anyone else out there.

  75. Turd, I too feel on the point of blowing chunks, but rather than piss and moan, I will try to find a bit of light where I can. You mention the mining stocks stinking up the joint for the last little while. True. As something of a proxy for the silver futures, I look towards FR on the Toronto exchange (strictly a silver mining play). Look at the chart for today and it appears to be bottoming (famous last words). Perhaps this portends that better days may be around the corner (again, famous last words).

  76. Minyanville:
    By Paul Mladjenovic May 03, 2011 11:15 am
    Here is a small sample of the “collapses” that have happened in silver since 2004:

    April 2004: Silver falls from $8.25 to $5.50. A 33% correction.
    May 2004: Silver falls from $6.10 to $5.40. A 12% correction in only four trading days.
    Sept. 2004: Silver falls from $6.80 to $6.12. A 10% correction in only eight days.
    Dec. 2004: Silver falls from $8.00 to $6.60. A 17.5% correction is only two weeks.
    Jun-Jul 2005: Silver falls from $7.55 to $6.80. A 10% for the summer.
    Apr. 2006: Silver falls from $14.25 to $12.10. A 15% correction only two days.
    May 2006: Silver falls from $15.00 to $12.00. A 20% correction in only 10 days.
    June 2006: Silver falls from $12.50 to $9.70. A 22% correction in only nine days.
    July 2006: Silver falls from $11.75 to $10.50. A 11% correction in only seven days.
    Sept. 2006: Silver falls from $13.25 to $10.75. A 19% correction in only 10 days.
    Dec. 2006: Silver falls from $14.10 to $12.50. A 11% correction in only 14 days.
    Mar. 2007: Silver falls from $14.30 to $12.50. A 13% correction in only four days.
    Aug. 2007: Silver falls from $13.10 to $11.60. A 11.5% correction in only 10 days.
    Mar. 2008: Silver falls from $21.00 to $17.50. A 17% correction in only three days.
    Apr. 2008: Silver falls from $18.50 to $16.50. A 11% correction in only 13 days.

    And then silver had a biggie…
    July-Oct 2008: Silver falls from $19.40 to $8.85. A 54% correction in under three months.

    And don’t forget…
    Feb-Mar 2009: Silver falls from $14.50 to $12.70. A 12% correction in three weeks.
    June 2009: Silver falls from $16.00 to $13.70. A 14% correction in 20 days.
    Jan. 2010: Silver falls from $18.75 $16.25. A 13% correction in 18 days.
    May 2010: Silver falls from $19.70 to $17.50. A 11% correction in only 11 days.

  77. @mc2560

    I don't think we fkd up at all man.

    I think we are in silver for the right reasons.

    I also think these desperate bullshit actions to bring silver down is proof we are right.

    A few months from now will be a different story.

  78. I hope Hong Kong tears Blythe a new one tonight.

  79. Speaking of cinch de mayo, Mexico central bank joins the gold buyers

  80. Anyone know anything about THREE BLACK CROWS. I was reading something a blogger wrote on kitco saying day three of a downward trend is telling. If we have another down day this is indicative of the beginning of a bear market. Is this true?

  81. 1, 2, 3 and say hello to the Margin Hike # 4 and 5

    The rates will be effective after the close of business on Thursday, May 5, 2011 and Monday, May 9, 2011.

    So on the 5th margin becomes : $18.900
    And on the 9th : $21,600

    TWO IN A ROW !!! Well the Samurai Sword will fall again it seems... beware...

  82. @ Bull

    Thanks for reminding me. Lived thru all of those....will live thru this one too. BTFD

  83. Will fiat silver hit $24 while physical stay at $40?
    While watching the descent of paper silver look at this:

    There is still lack of physical silver. At Kitco you can only buy bullions for shipping outside the US. Will we see an increased spread between the rigged paper silver and the real silver?

  84. If we continue at this rate:
    Margin up 10% every 4 days
    Silver down 10% every 2 days
    We might get to 200% margin pretty soon ;-)

  85. johnboatcat

    You are really really going to like them. There's something to be said for a seriously huge chuck of gold. Not some little fingernail's worth. A CHUNK!

    Tell you a story:

    My son has always been sympathetic about the gold. My daughter on the other hand, not so much. Poo pooing the whole thing. BUT, when she saw that Centenario, then she got kind of quiet for a second and said "Now THAT'S Cool!!!"

  86. From last thread:

    "JNG said...
    We are overdue for a bounce to $44-$45, then a retest of $40's. Everyone has gone short, especially the small guys. Shorts are being covered by the larger players as we speak, I think we are going to see a violent move to the upside in the next two days or next week and then it rolls over and retest the low. We've dropped too far too fast..."

    Absolutely agreed. Dropped some more today (became what I thought I'd never become, one of the rats that flee the sinking ship), hoping to buy in a little at lower levels last week. OI still pretty high at 130k contracts.. I think more liquidation by the longs and more covering by the shorts ahead.

    Also, I'd like to remind all of the IMF meeting on the international monetary system on the 10th of May... doubt they'll do that during rising PM prices.

  87. Tim

    The one last night? Here's a copy of my post:

    Eric#1 said...
    Aye Mateys, the good ship eBay has given up another shiny piece o' booty to me purse!! Aaarrr!
    May 3, 2011 11:22 PM

  88. Thank you very much Turd for this blog. I am learning so much in so little time.

  89. John

    The best fractional silver ever made is the pre '65 dime. Get a bagful.

  90. Silver has raced just to catch up with deserves a rest. Think about the fact that at $1575, Gold was 85% above it's 1980 high. Silver has just now reached it's 1980 high of $50. Tack on 85%, and Silver is $90+. Rest, refuel, ...liftoff. Silver is still cheap:

  91. Another monster box in the mail.

    $ $

  92. These margin hikes are a limited weapon, yes?
    like interest rates being lowered to zero.

    Once margins get close to 100% won't that weapon be toast?

    And China will still have plenty of Benny Bucks to dump into the market.

    So that begs the question again why spend this weapon now?

  93. @22f24756-405d-11e0-b5b3-000bcdcb5194

    I agree. BTFD at $36.


  94. @Brian

    Does Dan Norcini mean to say that we won't be seeing another upleg in silver for a long time?

  95. Source for margin increases, please. Subscribed to the newsletter now, but need confirmation on the current increases please.

  96. Each time they raise the margin it becomes less effective. Everyone is gun shy now about using margin after multiple margin increases in the last week, so I think the margin raise is a mute point now for the most part.

  97. @Markus

    Here you go partner:

  98. i am speaking about the most recent run of increases.
    I have no knowledge of future hikes.

  99. now we are getting 2 margin increases at a this rate we will hit 36 by friday...unreal

  100. From the ZH twitter page:

    In the meantime, Comex registered silver drops by 4,758 ounces to fresh record low 33,147,613 oz

  101. Thanks Karim.

    Okay, I'm out of this market now. Will get in later. Sorry guys.

    Of course I mean margin trades, still holding 100% of my physical and my miners.

  102. Turd et al, first of all thanks all for your insights. This blog is really one of a kind. I have been reading all the comments for months but only posted twice (3 now) and always at the end of a thread so I don't now if my comments are not interesting to anybody or they are just too late for a comment from the crowd here. Another reason for not posting is my little experience in trading, I am more an investor. My holdings are similar to Titus (89% phys, 11% miners). I have just lost over 300k (actually decreased profits, I am still above my starting point last May 2010) since the 29th of April (peak) and this is my message of hope to whomever feels desperate now: I am not in the least worried about this downturn, because I am totally convinced that gold will reach 5000 or more and silver maybe over 300 before this bull mkt is over. Hyperinflation is unavoidable and this will benefit the rich EE assholes to transfer their wealth to the future normal in some years. Besides all the usual reasons, I am getting more and more convinced by the Freegold concept (althoug I still don't see why silver would be left out completely) from FOFOA.

    Cheers all and HAVE FAITH!!

  103. I went long some great panther today, 10x forward earnings :D

  104. What is the "new site" that's been mentioned in the last two posts? What's the url? Thanks.

  105. Another margin increase.

    CME Hikes Silver Margins By 17%: 4th Hike In 8 Trading Days

    It is really clearing out a lot of small specs. Best to buy metal while it's cheap and available. EE is really scared at the lack of metal.

  106. When the rumor leaks soros is selling silver, as today. You know we're at the bottom. Same damn thing done with gold, while the rat bastard pinko was buying. When the dollar collapses. Remember the vermin rat soros. The pond scum, sucking ring worm-er, will be up to his slithering belly in it.

  107. COIN SHOP: $41.40 Canadian for MAPLES, they need 2 weeks for delivery, nothing in stock but 4 Eagles. Largest coin shop in the west coast of CANADA. Stated last week was pandemonium..EVERYONE SELLING. Store was empty today. Don't know what they did with their stock.

  108. @Watcher
    Yes, buy physical. You know what though, buying with a credit card is like buying on margin too, isn't it? In other words, it's basically placing a bet with somebody else's money (if you carry the balance forward) that silver with go up faster than your APR hit. At some point this price mess should soften that side of the physical market too. At least a little bit. I'm not sure how many buy silver w/o cash.

  109. @Timer
    We got our 300k volume on the present 8hr. So today is valid.

  110. so another CME hike tomorrow, so we are destined for another $2-$3 drop?

  111. During the last pullback, I maxed my credit to buy physical. It worked out GREAT! If it gets really low I'll definitely do that again.

    Just make sure you can pay it back in a reasonable amount of time.

    The more the price drops, the more physical will be sucked up.

    Listen carefully to the KWN weekly metals report!

    Last time Bill Haynes was screaming about a physical shortage exactly at the bottom. If I hear Bill saying that again I'll pull the big trigger. If it takes some time and the price continues to drop, then I'll be able to reach my full accumulation goal.

  112. I would think after this bloodbath that all the weak hands are gone?

  113. Silver is an industrial metal. Right now price is driven by economic recovery hopium and speculators.

    either one of those declines and silver goes back to $10, maybe less.

    believing in a stock market/economic collapse and holding silver in any form makes no sense whatsoever, except as a pure spec trade. Physical is horrible for that though.

    Gold might not get hit so hard when stocks collapse, and might recover when the dollar is destroyed.

    Silver will be dumped by everyone and their brother at a price well under spot at any dealers willing to still buy it, but there won't be many.

  114. Provident has monster boxes for $22,400

    $44.80 per.

    Wish I could afford it...

  115. To be, or not to be, that is the question:
    Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
    The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
    Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
    And by opposing end them?

    ...Summarizing the rest of this famous Hamlet speech, "or just die and sleep or never try?"

    Well, we, who are still here trying to make sense of our outrageous fortune this week, know the answer to this question: we will be here another day, week, month, year and however long it takes, to fight the good fight for family, friends, esprit de corps and in support of our dear leader Turd. I truly appreciate all you give us and I hope to pass on the gifts and clear vision you freely offer to others. I swear it.

  116. @humahuaca,

    very soon silver will be used as money(as it allways was) by average joe. Gold is too valuable for small transactions like bread and milk.

  117. My gut tells me that that the stretched out retail accounts have cleared out of this market already and that the latest hike will have minimal impact for the time being...

  118. If a physical/paper price divergence is occurring, why wouldn't entities buy COMEX silver at a discount, stand for delivery, and then sell physical in market at a premium? What am I missing here?

  119. @dd
    I tend to agree, there might be another buck or two left to shake out, but maybe not too?

  120. I think it is very difficult to call the bottom of this correction and I know that we are all aware of that fact. For me, at least, I understand why I bought silver in the first place which was to preserve some wealth through what will very turbulent times. It's proven out by the very actions of the EE bringing their guns to bear on the silver market..... that desperation and ferocious action is even more of an indicator of what the future holds for us and US economic system.

    Whether the time horizon is one year or two years, the days of the FRN/USD ruling the world theater are closing. I don't believe we are going to live in a Mad Max world, but we will be a fading empire with are way of life under serious pressure. In buying precious metals as a store of wealth, you have to understand you're end goal. If it's to make a buck, I can understand that...but set your goal...don't be greedy and get out. If it's wealth preservation, then you are long your precious metals as a store of value.

    This pain that all of us are feeling is not going to be any where near the pain we will be feeling if we don't plan, prepare and defend (while it's still possible) our ability to live a semblance of free life. I have been nibbling some purchases on our way down safe in the knowledge that I will see this price again on its way up. We could easily see this go to the low 30s or high 20s, but remember.... it's about having a plan for every action you take, understanding the risks, and then taking the steps to live that plan. Thanks again Turd for giving us this discussion emporium where views can be shared and thoughts exchanged.

  121. @Be Prepared
    It's pretty simple. Once the margin hikes and, more importantly, the fear of margin hikes disappears silver will rise again.

  122. Margain hike thursday, job reports friday, will the time to step in be monday open?

  123. Stop playing the casino.... It's a rigged game. Silver and gold double topped, the rest of the commodity complex is next, followed by the stock market when QE ends. Prepare to do what all of the bankers are going to do... Buy up everything of consequence on the cheap using dollars, before they run the printing presses full bore.

  124. Jeff, not every month is a delivery month and even then standing for delivery doesn't mean instant delivery. It takes hoops, time and bullshit to get the metal from the Comex. They don't have the metal to serve it like a revolving door. That's the whole point and why the street price divergence. In what appears to be an arbitrage situation is merely the mechanism of true price discovery.

  125. @torpedo

    Much as I admire sprott and even more so marc faber, I don't really think we will see madmax.

    Things will get bad, but not that bad.

    Silver may well be used as money again, but at what value? I sure would not buy here, I balked at $20, $30 and $40 too.

    Reading comments here reminds me exactly of comments on real estate blogs 5 years ago or penny stock blogs anytime.

    All hope and zero facts.

    'they aren't making any more silver'

  126. @Be Prepared - Right on, brother.

    @all - I have nothing to add that you fine folk haven't already said. Mebbe just an admonishment, like Be Prepared's, to keep the big picture in mind. Paper in a trading account isn't "preparing accordingly". These funny games the past few days are the death throes of a corrupt system that will do anything and everything it can to stay relevant. If you can't stand the heat, get out of paper.

  127. MFN Minefinders reported earnings after today's close.
    The report looked pretty good.

    FYI Minefinders produces both Gold & Silver.

    Some highlights:
    Gold equivalent ounces sold was up in Q1 2011 over 59% vs Q1 2010
    Cash operating cost was down to $472 from $609 per gold equivalent oz
    Q1 2011 Sales proceeds $52.3 million vs $26.4 million Q1 2010.
    Avg realized gold price $1388 (up 24%)
    Avg realized silver price $32.54 (up 92%)
    Silver production up over 3.3 X (Gold production somewhat lower)

    More at

    Disclaimer: Yesterday I purchased a few MFN 14 & 15 NOV call options.
    In this market, I thought it wisest to buy time.
    Good luck to all.
    Tom T.

  128. "dd said...
    My gut tells me that that the stretched out retail accounts have cleared out of this market already and that the latest hike will have minimal impact for the time being..."

    According to the OI numbers, no.

  129. Hi Turd and all,

    Thx for visiting my site:

    Seems strong miners came back this afternoon, HUI even, GDX up .2% SIL down .2%, while Silver and Gold kept dropping.

    Maybe the leader gold equities will lead next charge.

    Goldcorp great earnings release tonight:

    Disclosure: I am holding Goldcorp warrants that expire on June 9th.

    Marco G.

  130. There's only one reason why CME is raising margin limits on silver and knowing why is extremely valuable information. They are clearly telling us, screaming at us, that they DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH PHYSICAL SILVER!!!

    Whatcha gonna do about it?

    If you have half a brain, you'd be buying physical now, regardless of the current price because a couple of extra bucks now will be meaningless later.

    Do not be part of the shoulda woulda coulda camp. Take action, protect yourself, and fuck JPM.

  131. @ blorf

    Exactly. Wow, my thoughts 100%.

    I puked out of my stocks today and will short rallies from now on. Friday could be very ugly for everything if the number sucks, which it must.

    Feels very, very good to be in cash right now.

  132. Mr. Turd,

    The chat room I previously made for you is at

    Is this what you are looking for?

  133. Turd and everyone,

    Roger Wiegand and Al Korelin's discussion on silver, uploaded by them just a little while ago (6PM EST), might help you sleep better (if they cocktails won't already). Al asks Roger if he remains very bullish on silver. To which Roger replies, "Oh, more so than ever, especially with all the physical shortages, it's just unbelievable, the shortages we're seeing everywhere...." He also says that when silver breaks loose from these lows, it will shoot back up like a rubber band shot straight through 50 and beyond:

  134. Look at these trolls! LOL!

    I'll use the KWN Weekly Metals Wrap as my guide.

  135. I really, really, really, really, really, really, really, REALLY need silver to stay above $37.....

    Turd do you think it will stay above $37? Or will it dip below? If it goes below, for how long will be be below?

  136. Hey turds, chins up.

    Here's the view from Bill Murphy's Midas Report that hit my mbox earlier. Just a blurb.

    "You need to know what GATA knows" Believe it.

    "...After holding up OK in the early going gold and silver were sent reeling, as vulnerable specs ran for the hills to protect profits or cut losses. It was not a pretty sight. And yes, it was all because of the corrupt Gold Cartel. Yesterday the open interest in silver went UP 1340 contracts to 131,907, which is astonishing considering the extent of the drop in the silver price. So, it was not spec liquidation which caused silver to tank.

    And what is particularly irksome about gold getting trashed, is that THE DOLLAR MADE NEW LOWS FOR ITS MOVE this morning. Veteran Café members will vividly recall the MIDAS rant for years that they key to the gold price was not what the dollar did but how the physical market stood up to the antics and market manipulation of The Gold Cartel. Gold has now plummeted some $70 from high to low, while the dollar sinks lower and lower. Can it be clearer what is going on here?

    How many times over the years has the GATA camp pointed out that The Gold Cartel loves to attack at certain times? And they do so over and over again. Yep, they did it again today with a PLAN B attack on the gold price following the PM Fix, when the physical market pricing concludes. The PM Fix was $1541 … then BOOM, gold was punished down to $1505.50 at its low of the day. This is ridiculous to watch and, as always, no one outside the GATA camp is willing to point out the obvious.

    The gold open interest fell 5561 contracts yesterday to 522,323. Today the OI drop should be dramatic … as specs dumped and the crooks covered shorts.

    All of this gold selling is occurring at a time when the news could not be more friendlier. In addition to the dollar making lows, it was announced today that the central bank of Mexico bought 100 tonnes of gold. That is a BIG, BIG deal and follows the news of the Texas retirement fund buying a large amount of gold. More and more institutions are coming in on the buy side. It was only a few years ago the European central banks were selling 400/500 tonnes of gold per year. Now they are selling zip while other central banks and major institutions are buying."

  137. Prize Fighter, I'm sure it is a process. It seems like free money on the table to someone with the capital and commitment to follow through on the process. Buyers/Users Of Size would certainly be in prime position to exploit this.


  139. I hit capitulation today, after saying I'm long until 13 June, I finally set stops a little below the gaps for SLW/CDE. SLW stop got taken out immediately, at the lows of the day, of course. CDE held strong, having second thoughts, might remove the stop and stay long. Tired of the mind games in this market! So at the end of the day, I put 1/3rd of the SLW cash into AGQ, and will trend in as it goes down each 10%, never done AGQ before, I know a lot of people have been smacked by it. I'm usually very strong handed even with my miners, so I figure if I've hit capitulation, it's time to do the opposite. The market obviously needs to go down some more if I'm gambling like this.

  140. Can someone explain in simple terms what a margin hike is? I'm guessing it is a fee one must pay to borrow money to buy paper silver on credit. Is that correct? If you buy paper silver without using credit there is no margin fee? Am I correct? Since I only purchase silver rounds for when the SHTF, I'm not that keen on the inside baseball stuff when it comes to the market. So obviously this discourages folks from buying silver which deflates the price? Won't folks just stop buying silver on credit soon and turn this back around?

  141. Friends, FWIW, can vouch for Marco G. He's a very good guy.

    Ok, Marco likes GBG a wee bit too much & too long for me. Another miner with absolutely stunning holdings that seems to be running in grease as long as I've watched 'em :-)

    Marco, we need all the help we can get right now. Really nice to have you aboard.

  142. CME Margin Hike Is 4th AND 5th - Charting The Parabolic Rise In CME Silver Margin Hikes

  143. Turd,

    I still think IRC is the way to go! There are a number of IRC networks to choose from-- all of which are free. Folks can register a username and protect it with NickServ to maintain an identity in the community.

    All you gotta do is call one 'home'-- a server and a channel, and point to it on your title page, and I'm sure folks will join on up. I sure would!

  144. I need some advice, in a bad way. I know that this is not a stocks site but I freaked out a couple weeks ago when the DOW was dropping to 12,200 and I put the 401K into cash. I didn't want to lose it all in a crash because I am planning to borrow out of it and buy physical. Now the DOW took a little rocket up to 12800 on those bogus numbers and I don't know what do to.

    Do I let it sit in cash?

    Do I put it back to work?

    I need that money to grow so that I can buy physical with it but I don't want to lose it when the stock market implodes at the end of QE.

    Advice please. I can't sleep.

  145. @Pablo, click on that link Diamond has posted above

  146. I actually run an IRC chat too, and have web hosting with forums and live chat software, believe it or not. I might be willing to host it.

    Turd you already have my email if you need to get a hold of me.

  147. (hiccup)
    please check the update

  148. Diamond:

    Or, as opposed to a rubber band, how about a turpentined cat

  149. They will not stop raising margin requirements on Silver until JPM has covered their shorts. It's that simple. There is nothing they won't do at this point. Don't cry just react accordingly and preserve your capital.

    Those who control the exchange make the rules and we all knew this before we started playing. They are still firmly in control of everything related to these markets, obviously.

    The fundamentals have not changed, if anything they've gotten stronger.


  150. H-

    You are in the same place I am, I look around and any investment paying more than 1% looks like a crapshoot... so you either steel yourself to the idea of directly taking big risks (in the PMs or the stock market), shield yourself from the knowledge or risk (if not the reality) by buying mutual funds, or you find a nice safe boring fund.

    I can accept the risks, but after my experience of the last couple days I'm going to put a lot more effort into risk management, getting out of trades faster, setting stop losses on everything, setting bail out and profit taking points for everything, and letting most of my trading cash sit on the sidelines most of the time, waiting for that "fat pitch".

    The other aspect you might consider is timeframe....if this is retirement money, think in terms of years instead of days.... does it really matter if you get back in the market this week, if you have a 10 year goal? Could you just sit and watch for a few weeks or months? There will always be new opportunities coming along.

    At least I'm trying to tell myself this stuff.

  151. Wow! Great ready to back up the truck!

  152. H,

    Nothing wrong with being in cash until you figure out where the market is going. You don't have to always be all in. I'm mostly in cash with a small pessimistic holding.

  153. Ha! Im loving some Two Hearted Ale from Bell's Brewery......bottom's up to Silver's bottom!!??! ; )

  154. EWC- Had to step away for a bit and just saw your reply to me in the previous thread. Thank you, my brother- I would be honored to share a foxhole with you. If you are so inclined I'll bring the whiskey (and if Turd can stagger over, he can join in and regale us with tales of Chupacabra sightings)!

    This fight is just starting and the beast has started noticing that the ants are winning- as TF rightly notes this explains a great deal of the action this week. Not to worry, we ants will survive with Swords of silver and shields of gold, much to our 'betters' chagrin.

  155. They seem more desperate than anything. They are panicking. They are loosing control. Should get interesting.

  156. Tom L:


    and the disorderly market shall remain so until it isn't

  157. If you hear that Soros is selling silver or gold, you damn well better do the opposite and buy with both fists, because you know he is. And if you hear him say to get into the POSX you better run like hell because that means it's about to be revalued.

  158. Just came across this site, too cool!

  159. @ Eric#1 and other eBay buyers

    Eric, I assumed you knew about esnipe but then heard you advise someone to put their bid in in the last 2 minutes. How about if you could place that bid in the last 6, 4 or 2 seconds? has saved me thousands of dollars over the years and if you haven't checked it out, it is a MUST (I don't want to be a taker - I have weird things to give but I offer them up!)

    Those asshole troll/bitches who dis Turd piss me off.

    As to the centenarios congratulations. They are my favorite coin. The soverigns are nice too, but pretty small (though larger than the 20 franks.)

    I'm down a huge amount (beause I chose AGQ) and I'm still in. I hope it goes back up but if it doesn't the silver lining is that if silver drops down to $5.00 or something then closing my IRAs will be virtually painless.



  160. @ Rob, guessing I'm in the minority here, but I would love to see silver at $32 in the few days. The puts I'm thankfully holding would be worth a small fortune. I'd sell them and convert the proceeds into physical Ag in the lowe $30s in a heartbeat.

    @ All, word of caution: Don't get so fixated on the gyrations of the silver price and ignore the larger market backdrop. Marc Faber and Charles Nenner have both been calling for equity market turbulence (i.e., a significant correction) in May/June. And while they're not always right, their reputations and track records are too good to ignore completely.

    The EE could conceivably score a 1-2 punch here. Punch 1 was the effect of three consecutive margin hikes (accompanied by at least two more over the next few days) that knocked the price of silver from $49 to <$40. Punch 2 could knock us on the mat if we have a 15-20% equity market correction before silver recovers its losses - silver won't be spared from further declines if the S&P corrects 20%.

    Don't lose sight of what the overall market is doing as you think about buying the dip.

    May and June have the potential to be really treacherous to the ill prepared:

  161. @wallyworld,
    SilverFuturist has a video about margin.

  162. New margin hikes friday and monday. My take is that these hikes are designed to instill fear of a rerun of this monday. I cant see friday be anything but a down day. Who'd want to be long over the weekend? I'll be going in on the buy side on monday London lunch.

    Or will it be "too late"? Thoughts?

  163. Looks like Bennochio is starting his "please save us with more QE, ben!" campaign a little earlier than I expected. I would have thought they would let QE actually end first, before imploding everything. Guess not! Just wait for next week's terror attack!

  164. i must say BLYTHE is a very talented lady anc i mut tip my hat to her. It is absolutey incredible how people's. es[ecially goldbugs, perception of silver haschanged dung the past 2 weeks; jpMorgan is stil in the same jam it was 2 weeks ago, when WE THE PEOPLE WERE DETERMMINED TO EXPOSE THIS FRAUD BY DEMANDING DELIVEY IF TRADING THE COMEX and /or buying up physical silver. It was fully expected people would take profits durig this rise, as that is simply smart money management. Personally, i sold enough silver to cover my cost t purchase it all, so am now playing with the houses money. SO, WHAT HAS CHANGED IN 2 WEEKS TO GET EVERYONE SOUR ON SLVER ? BLYYHE !!!! SHE DOES SEEM TO GET THE JOB DONE... LOL. Personally, i am not buying into it. i swappd some gold for silver yesterday,and wil do anther trade tommorrow to take advntage of this SALE ON SILVER . please do not play into BLYTHE'S HANDS AND TURN YOUR BACKS 0N SILVER,, THE PLAYOF THE DECADE

  165. Stocks and commodities go down the next few days. Ben says market has already priced in the end of QE II and here the results. He begins QE III before the end of June.

  166. Coin Store Update: London Coin Gallery, Mission Viejo, CA

    I asked if they had any eagles, which she quickly said said "no". I heard a voice in the background asking how many I wanted, and, since I knew what they were hoping to hear, I said, "not many".
    After hearing that, she told me that she would sell some to me, at %51.xx per coin. I asked if a $12 premium was normal, and she said yes.
    I said that was ridiculous, how much if I buy 20+? (she seems to forgot that she already told me that they were out) she said $4.10 over spot, bringing the total to $43.35 for each coin, at the time of my call, which isn't too bad, actually.

    Is that steep premium normal if you buy 1 or 2? I always back up the truck so I don't know how much singles are...:)

    Just a friendly update, i'd imagine it is hard to gauge "real" prices without quick updates like this every once and a while. Keep em coming turds, and post a general location or specific store, might as well.

  167. @ Brian: "I expect another huge leg down in all markets".

    My 2 year index charts say the paper stock index declines have already started and have 6-8% more to go, which then tells me PMs will get dragged under the equity bus, with delayed buying opportunities at levels lower than the 1475/35 March support.

    Fiat is still the bubble, PMs are still the new currency backing, TF will still be the one who is right last, but the road suddenly looks much longer and rougher.

  168. well, maybe they have the price where they want it

    or not

    me? I think maybe 35 is not out of the question

    but then, will you really be able to find any physical?

  169. 'national physical silver prices can never go down because physical silver prices are always local'

    when i hear people saying that their local coin shop won't sell them any silver now below $50, I wonder if it occured to them that it's because the shop paid $48 for it and is praying prices recover.

    If they don't they'll just slap a huge premium on it.

    I guess it's really true that some people never learn.

    I hope the little guys here don't swallow all that you read here, I imagine some of you cannot afford to lose your life savings in yet another bubble.

  170. Shorts throwing up some heat right now. Trying to make a new low it seems.

  171. humahuaca when SILVER went from $19 to $8 in 2008, they called it a bubble then. My.. things just seem to rhyme, or is that repeat.

  172. You know we've found a bottom when people are talking about silver going to $20. Same way you knew we hit a top when people were talking about it going to $75 or $100.

    Enough said right here:

  173. To everyone feeling defeated, DON'T and BTFD!. Timmy just asked for $2 Trillion. $2 TRILLION! The flight from the dollar has begun. Japan is spewing radioactive waste. The middle east is breaking up. Sprott just redistributed his weight to the miners. The weakness of the elite is their hubris and their unshakable belief that they can fool everybody all of the time. But any listener of Tosh knows that ain't true.

  174. Email from my waldo broker:
    MF Global has decided to relax their silver margins down to 1.35X exchange minimums. 5000oz Comex silver is now $21870 Initial/ $16200 maintenance. 1000oz NYLF silver is $3919 initial / $2903 Maintenance.

    Checking out the live chat, thats a cool feature.

    @Eric#1 I made a post about a week ago, maybe two that made me out to be the anti-gold, I hope I was not offensive to anyone. I have since learned not to have all my eggs in one basket so to speak, and now I say gold is good, gold is great.

    So if I were the EE and I wanted to get rid of all us speculators, the best thing for me to do right now would not be crash it down further, but flatline it, most investors will get bored with sideways trading within a month. People still make money when it goes down (those with the balls to short it anyway)
    Just thinking out loud.

  175. Hopefully this is the bottom and we'll all start again. Nothing has changed. Nothing.

    Thank you, "Turd" for being so reliably RIGHT!

    This will happen more often and MORE violently. HOLD. ON.

  176. It always helps to grasp where you are:

    RANDALL: Did you get your money?
    TOM: No.
    RANDALL: Well, I did. That chain-smoking Chupacabra will pay 50 cents on the dollar for every share you've got.
    CROWD: Fifty cents on a dollar?
    RANDALL: Yes. Federal Reserve Notes. The world's reserve currency.

    Your call. Take it?

  177. Unbelievable. 4th and 5th margin hike within 8 days. The Comex seems to be completely desperate. I'm absolutely sure silver is ready to start its real big up move anytime now.

    Look forward to see 50 in silver as fast as we went down these days.

    Unprecedented times these are...


  178. sorry, whats "BoS" standfor?

  179. @ SilverBleve

    You are right but in my opinion the problem is if there isn't enough silver left to surpress the price to an artificial low level for any extended period of time it's simply not possible to hold the price flat. So the silver market will remain crazy volatile for the time being but the next big move is to the upside.

    I don't care if it starts now, at 38 or 35 but I'm sure it will go back up very fast once the low was made.

    Backwardation is intensifying by the day so what is left for the EE?

  180. anyone think the delayed margin hike is already priced in?

  181. Hoed,

    Can you please explain the mechanism that is going to drive SLV up?

    I am still a little lost. If there are no buyers and JP Morgan is willing to throw an unlimited supply of money at knocking the price down, how will this thing go up?

  182. I just removed 13oz of Silver out of circulation. Death by a thousand cuts.

  183. Silverbleve,

    To respond to your post directed at Eric... Those few posts you made pissed me off, but not because I don't like people talkin' shit about my precious:) More because I interpret your(and a few others) posts as intelligent, well written and potentially influential to the newbs, and they were just extremely misleading and possibly dangerous.

    That being said, I'm honestly happy for you and anyone else that has a more balanced view these days:)

    I've said some nasty things calling silverbugs crazy and whatnot, but I was too quick to judge and didn't consider the emotions involved. We're all here to learn and experience in this life.

    Keep rockin'


  184. TF. I can only think of the Blues Brothers lying in the tunnel with his ex-wife holding a machine gun pinning them down. All he can do is say, "it's not my fault".

    It's not your fault the CME is freaked out so bad they raised margin rates 4 times within days. Who knew how many this flushed out of the market.

    Silver is down because there was a tornado, there was an earthquake, a flood, locusts but it's not our fault.

    Jake's exuses:

  185. "kevin said...
    CME Margin Hike Is 4th AND 5th - Charting The Parabolic Rise In CME Silver Margin Hikes"

    They should have rather done a price-vs-margin chart, which would have made a lot more sense. During last year the leverage on the 5000 oz silver contract was on average 17x.. then they let it run up to about 30x ten days ago when silver was approaching 50$ and maintenance margin was still at ~8000$.. now next Tuesday, when we assume silver still at 40$, and maintenance margin at 16000$ we'll be down to 12,5x leverage. Probably less if the silver price, and thus the price for the 5000oz contract, is even lower.

    So not the margin increases are what's so bad, they're quite adequate at this point, but the timing is what makes it so criminal - on the run-up allow maximum leverage to get everyone to commit with all their $$$, and on the way down repeatedly increase margins to shake out those same investors and take all their $$$ through margin calls.

  186. @ SoccerDad

    You may want to consider holding CDE through til May 9 earning's report.
    It should be a good one.

    Just my opinion. Their most recent quarterly report came during an equally sketchy period and CDE still surged.

    Tom T.

  187. So according to Harvey:

    "The gold and silver shares did not participate in the drubbing today and actually held their ground. Thus the raid is now over and gold and silver metals will have a good day tomorrow as the bankers try and cover the massive amounts of paper they supplied."

  188. Re. Harvey's post, that was written before he saw the ZH article about the margin hike.... check farther down in his posting.

  189. @guy - harvey wrote that before he heard of the margin hike news. He writes about the margin hike a bit further down in the post.

  190. Ivar's long-term silver prediction from March seems to be playing out to my dismay:

    I hope he's wrong that SI won't breach $50/oz until 2012. I'm still holding on to my physical and paper for the long haul.

  191. Last year I was too excited about the JPMorgue silver whistle blower story that I jumped in a miner stock a little too early only to have my holding down by 25% during the summer.

    I wasn't worried one bit as #1 I know it'd come back once the long term bull market establishes and #2 I was not on margin so it's easy to sit through. Hopefully this story helps the nervous holders handle this tough correction.