Monday, May 9, 2011

The Passing Storm

So far, so good. The storm has either passed or we are simply in the eye. I guess we'll know if a few days.

For now, you might go back and re-read this:
In silver, we can finally feel like we're making progress, maybe not so much in price but certainly from a technical perspective. All the panic liquidations seem to be over and we now have clear levels to watch for support and buying/selling points. Here's a 30-minute chart to help for today:
Gold stopped and reversed last Thursday. as well. The chart isn't nearly as damaged as silver or crude, reflecting that it has reassumed the role as the leader of the group. The area around 1520 will likely impede its progress for a few days but, through there, it looks positioned to head right back UP toward 1550 and 1570.
I'd also like to encourage you to go back and read this:
As a bonus, there's a silver chart in there from before the meltdown. Ah...the good old days.

Anyway, as discussed in that note, the only tools the Fed has left in their "controlled demolition" of the dollar are talk and fear. They tried "talk" a few weeks ago but the "calvin" didn't hold. This time they're trying fear: "OOhhh, dat spooky EU gonna bweak up. Bettuh buy da dollah. Safe haven, ya know".
This latest "calvin" has once again spiked the POSX back up to its primary trendline. Where it goes from here is the real question. History would suggest that the next move is straight back down but, given all of the unusual and desperate craziness of the past week, it's impossible to say for sure.
Finally, here's crude. President O'bottom got his wish and price has been driven almost 10% lower. The prez may be able, by wagging his tongue and finger, to get his goons to spark a margin hike-induced selloff. Something tells me, however, that his bully pulpit power does not extend to the MENA region where the latter part of this month promises to get...(uhhh, shall we say?)...unpredictable.
The damage to the chart is real though and it will take some time to fix. If you're long, you need the area around $98 to continue to hold as it has become rather critical support.

OK, let's go get em.
I have lasts of 1502 and 36.83. Good luck today. TF


  1. Jedi.

    Not that I'd sell my eagles anytime soon but what is the procedure for selling them to Hong Kong at 10% over spot?

  2. Hey, aren't we due for another few margin hikes? It's been, what... 72 hours?

    I'm back in AGQ at 200, will be adding on dips below 190 if we get them. Will exit position if silver breaks 34.50. Good trading, friends.

  3. Hey Turd

    Which Calls / Puts on SLV do you recommend to get?

    Or should I wait until the storm passes?


  4. This is a minor point, perhaps, but SLV price is once again converging with spot -- SLV is now ~$0.90 below front month contract price, whereas is was $1.10-$1.15 5-10 days ago.

  5. The other very powerful tool they have is interest rates. The Fed just has to hint that rates will rise and all commodities, including gold and silver, will crash.

  6. TIA for a definition of "calvin" . Is there any way to update the glossary so as to have it all in one place?

  7. Great post. I just discovered your site & it's inspiring. Keep up the good work!

  8. Just came across this vid. It is a hoot for Turd afficionatos. If you need some bucking up after last week's selloff, this be your guy. Can't get over his Gordon Gekko look though. lol. enjoy.


    Banksters Escalate Manipulation in Silver Market via CME Margin Increases – Forces prices Down

    By Eric Padden

    In this video I discuss the recent escalation in Silver manipulation by the big banks and traders. They are going beyond just flooding the markets with hundreds of millions of ounces of paper Silver like normal. Now they have forced major increases in margin requirements via the CME group which created massive sell offs in Silver positions and drove prices down big time over the last 72 hours.

    This has not changed the fundamentals at all and as I discuss in this video it has created a excellent buying opportunity to add to your physical Silver position.
    10 min video here:

  9. Interest rates are going down on CDs to an all time low of 0.25% aprox (per year), go call your bank, just in case ;)

    This means that the Fed wont rise interest rates for some time.

  10. @Pining - Don't forget that there IS a margin hike already scheduled for this evening :-)

  11. Raul: I'm not buying anything yet.

    Mojine: The glossary is being updated for the new site, which is about 3 weeks away. Here's your calvin definition:

  12. Thank you, oh mighty Turd! You ARE the man.

  13. Eric #1, No advantage in American Silver Eagles vs. other Silver bullion? While there is a higher premium on these than other forms of Silver, but…just thinking out loud here…there may be a few advantages.

    During April’s frenzy, a seller would’ve had no problem selling any Silver, whether it be ASE’s, old 90% coins, or even a scruffy 1998 Frosty The Snowman commemorative 1-oz round.

    But what about in a market in which the buyer suddenly becomes choosy? If the seller HAS to sell, as is sometimes the case, the buyer may be more disposed toward American Silver Eagles than old Frosty or even the junk silver. Just my 2¢.

    This is why I posted, a week or so ago, about wanting to sort through my stash and selling the ‘smoothies’ in the 90% Silver coin sack, as well as the private mint bullion rounds. But unfortunately I never got around to doing this in time – thanks to planting season’s arrival.

    But that’s o.k., Silver will be back up in price, although this may take longer than many here believe…

    - Mammoth

  14. My accounts are locked up tighter than a rag head's harem. I got slapped with that "6 month must wait until funds settle three free ride violation" crap. I have 1/3 of my AGQ funds in AGQ from Friday. Couldn't get it out today to save my soul or get the other 2/3 in until tomorrow. It's a whole different game, if you haven't played it with these fetters. my Frinds. At least we were up today so I could catch this light morning move with a fraction of my funds. Disappointed to see the NAV of CEF and SVRZF moving up; I would like to buy them with some of the dry powder I'm forbidden to to use until tomorrow. I guess it will force me to be more cautious. I lose over $100,000.00 trapped in the post Easter meltdown and since then have managed to recoup about $30,000 of that. Sucks.

    Turd, you're a totally great guy. Give my belated Mother's Day wishes to Mrs. Ferg and to Mother Ferg.

    Huxley Ann

  15. Remember turds underlying premise of the USDINKer. It has been sacrificed by dead head feds to retain status quo power. When the dead cat bounce is over and 76.20 fails. Exits will get crowded to new 52wk lows and the real sell in May go away will be even more apparent.

  16. You know, I actually read that post when it was new. (re: Calvin)
    Anyway, NOW I remember it.

  17. I am also holding on buying physical and paper today.

    There is too much unpredictability due to the situation at CME and the margin hikes.

    It is no accident that the last margin hikes of this percentage were in 2008 and 2009 as the financial markets were locked up.

    I'm guessing that some degree of lock up is occuring now. That may not be bad with all the international turmoil.

    To the guy asking how to sell your physical in China, DYODD. I am not in Hong Kong.

    I am in the USA where I can see that the Chinese are outbidding my own countrymen's coin shops.

    The coin shops are acting as part of the silver shortage. After all, if they wanted to liquify the supply, they only need to increase the buy price from the consumer.

    To the guys owning coin shops-
    Why would you guys be buying from US mint wholesalers at a 10% premium over COMEX spot, but then wing your own loyal clients with a price of only 1% over comex spot?

    You would be wiser to liquify your market and allow more sales to move.

    But, alas, you aren't really interested in that kind of profit? Or are you?

    Ebay is at $40 an ounce.

    Why would I sell to your stores when I can liquify to Ebay and an international audience at 10% over COMEX?

    The real kicker comes in a few weeks when Hong Kong's gold trading starts. Either the COMEX needs to adjust now or they can be utterly wiped from the investment map in four weeks time.

  18. @CD

    Previously, I thought that SLV carrying/management costs were a fixed $ cost. But as was pointed out to me last week by a poster on here (sorry do not recall name), SLV costs are a percentage below Spt - I think in the 97.5% od Spot.
    So, at these lower Spt, SLV would have a lower cost. Yes, I do recall that when Spot was in $48 range SLV was @ $1.10 cost (below Spot)

  19. @ RoCoach: Re Interest Rates

    Source Found Here (

    To understand gold price performance, you need to grasp the concept of monetary inflation cycles which are generally 10-20 years in duration. Higher monetary inflation (M3 growth) generates higher CPI. With higher CPI comes rising interest rates. Gold performs strongly in this environment as people question the purchasing power of the dollar and become nervous about the market uncertainty surrounding these periods. Higher interest rates generally result in poor performances in the sectors which benefited significantly from extended periods of easy credit. These sectors are namely property and shares.

    In 2006 The Fed Removed M3 from its tracking signals...

    And CPI is a useless figure, just like the DXY...

    Conclusion: Once these figures fail to hide the grim realities and interests rates rise, it will be in response to inflation. This doesn't sound bearish to me...

    Gold & Silver are not "commodities"
    Well maybe silver, but it has multiple roles...

  20. The Chinese have their own agenda. Buy and accumulate because the USD they have will go down in flames sooner or later. Thanks to taxpayer's money our Fed and banksters are keeping prices low and the Chinese are saying "Thank you, buy, buy."

  21. Arrg, my post was deleted 3 times, here is the link:

  22. Great new article out by James Turk at the KWN Blog

    I tend to agree. This sell off was instigated.
    The EURO got pummeled overnight. The USD and GOLD have moved in sequence together before over the past year during EURO weakness.

  23. It just dawn on me on re-reading Merrimann's forecast for gold and silver in his forecast book of 2011 that the recent big drastic correction in Silver could be the 111 weeks' correction per his forecast (pt 3 as below). If so, it means that we are now potentially seeing a birth of a brand new 111 weeks cycle, which should see successive impulsive movements upward from the recent low.

    The below is the extract of his forecast for gold and silver. Anyone has the similar view.

    Gold and Silver
    1. The long term cycle of gold is bullish, and not due to top out until 2017-2023, and possibly even into 2040.

    2. A 17 month cycle trough in Gold is due July-August 2011, +/- 3 mths. It may also correlate with a 34 month cycle low off the 8.5 year cycle trough that occurred in Oct 2008. That decline can be anywhere from $140-480 off the high that precedes it. But as long as Gold remains above 980-1050 support, the longer
    term bull market is intact.

    3. Silver's 111 week cycle is due before May 2011

    4. Geocosmics point to sharply higher metals' price after 2011.

  24. Jedi said:
    "The real kicker comes in a few weeks when Hong Kong's gold trading starts. Either the COMEX needs to adjust now or they can be utterly wiped from the investment map in four weeks time."

    I'm taking a wait and see on this but the possibilities are more than intriguing! Wonder what MSM coverage it will get ahead of time... (slim to none?)

  25. Looking at SLW's daily chart....anyone else see the similarities between it's recent price action over the last month (Early April - Early May) and the price action around Turd's bottom in Jan (Late Dec - Late Jan)? Looks like the daily RSI movement/bottom is reinforcing this pattern as well.

  26. I am curious about the 20 cent spread in bid/ask according to Kitco. It has been that way for a week. I understand it reflects fear in the market, but any ideas on how significant it is in regard to establishing a bottom? Do we need that to tighten back up to feel more confident about an entry point?


  27. average joe

    what buy indicator signals are you using for xag ?

  28. Another great read.

    I regularly take trading profits out of the paper markets and convert to physical. It's a nice way of letting the corrupt system sponsor my savings plan. If everyone took even 5% of trading profits and converted to physical...well we'd be helping our paper profits, we'd be pressuring the crimex further and you'd be putting aside an asset that will be worth much much more in the future.

  29. uh oh

    Sprott launching a new silver bullion fund

    Story over on ZH

  30. Here's an important call on the POS$ rally by Adam Hamilton.

    Regardless of Fed talk, the techs indicate a breakout. Doesn't change anything from a long term perspective as the underlying suggests the toilet bowl, but just beware of what happens to PM's when traders run to cash.

    Also, there was a great article on FOFA's blog about silver. Some of you that are new or have riden the wave of enthusiasm of late need to read it. It puts everything in perspective, IMHO. It's a long article (figure 20 min to read it at least) but you might change your mind about silver in some fashion. I know I have, and I agree with the author's thesis: if you own too much silver, you own the wrong metal.

  31. USDINKer has been a measured exit. We'll see in May. BRICS aren't buying benocide; sheitner strong dollar policy. I wouldn't either. Japan has no choice but dump dollars and reinvest in infrastructure regardless of paid pimps of fane stream media yak attacking otherwise. Debt ceiling will rise! Wild gov spending continues! bankster fraudsters in bed with dead head feds continue plundering and gutting ameriCON'ds wealth with savage acceleration. One hint of QEIII by US central bankster in May and panic exit begins. Critical juncture here and I see the dollar as loser again in May. dead heads boxed in and need QEIII to finance tiny tims 2 trillion debt ceiling raise.

  32. Newt Gingrich to announce bid for GOP presidential nomination

  33. Wow. That FOFOA guy really seems to dislike the fact that silver is the new gold.

  34. Positive SLW conference call and earnings. GDX still hanging in there and building a base...needs a close over 57

  35. Posted this over the weekend:

    Interesting public commentary from Ted Butler.

    Begs the question: is there a rule of LAW in the united States, or isn't there??

  36. Also as mentioned over the weekend, it strikes me that Mr. Butler is entirely capable of making a fairly complicated point WITHOUT forcing someone to wade through 20-30 minutes of reading (I'm looking at you FOFOA/Costata).

  37. @Cris

    "Begs the question: is there a rule of LAW in the united States, or isn't there??"

    Well now, that depends on who you are and who you know.

  38. Has anyone here ever sold quantities of ASE on eBay? I am in a bind and need to liquidate about 500. What were your experiences with fees, etc...?

    Do you have any recommendations?

  39. FIVE QUESTIONS: (from Ted Butler)

    Please allow me to be blunt and specific. These are the questions that Gensler must confront and address–

    One - the $6 takedown in 12 minutes on Sunday evening on initial light Globex volume was clearly intended to get silver prices rolling downhill. It was something I had never witnessed before. There were no fundamental developments in silver to account for it. Therefore, this was not true price discovery, but price-setting and manipulation. What is the Commission’s take on this matter?

    Two - the series of margin increases by the CME Group had the effect of adding downward pressure to a market already intentionally rolling downhill. At best, the margin increases prove that silver margins were previously much too low and the CME is incompetent and negligent in setting margins and that function should be taken away from them. At worst, the CME intentionally raised and timed silver margins to aid and abet its most important members in causing the price of silver to crash. In other words, the CME resisted raising margins on the way up as that would have damaged the insider shorts and waited until prices began moving lower to hurt the longs and reward the shorts. I’ve learned from experience that it is best to view the CME as a criminal enterprise. What is the Commission’s opinion on this?

    Three – the record high trading volume and 30% price smash indicate there was little true liquidity present. This is due to a disproportionate share of trading being performed by HFT computer bots. Why are these traders allowed to exist and control so much a share of silver trading?

    Four – there has been much media and other commentary about silver being in a bubble that burst due to large leveraged speculative buying. This story has been repeated so often that it is now accepted as being true. Yet the CFTC’s own data in the COT reports indicate that no such speculative buying occurred in silver futures prior to the price crash. Commodity law holds that it is a criminal violation to spread false market information. Why is the CFTC allowing this false market information to be disseminated unchallenged? By remaining silent and not setting the record straight, the Commission itself may be in violation of the law.

    Five – while outside its direct jurisdiction, the Commission is aware of the allegations of manipulative impact the short selling of shares in the big silver ETF, SLV, has had on the price of silver. What is the Commission’s position on this and has the agency referred this matter to the SEC or taken it up with BlackRock, the trust’s sponsor?

  40. @Stevy
    Turd's advice is my indicator. Was only physical buyer till a few months ago. Have done well just buying and selling with turds advice.

    My actions sometimes have costed me. But fridays buy was my own. Felt no one would want to hold over weekend because of last, so I took the chance. Out now like the strength its showing but worried about equaties this week. Due to evil's comments on 9-10% correction feel AG, AU may feel the heat too. Waiting to make a big move in two weeks. According to turds timeline he gave out. I dont care if I miss a couple of dollars up, I'd rather be sure, I'm not convinced EE will let their work go undone so easily.

  41. I tried reading that FOFOA link that everyone has been passing around, couldn't finish it. Whoever wrote that has an obvious grudge against silver. I like remaining open and subjective to both sides of the silver argument, but that article got old quick and seemed to be ignoring the fundamentals. Just my take from it.

  42. Scott,

    Great comments once again. Everyone forgets when Greenspan jacked rates from 1% to 5% and gold rallied. The situation is much worse today, and the deficits and debt would literally implode the economy with significantly higher rates. I don't see that happening for many months or even years at this point.

    Silver up almost $5 since fridays lows. Not bad at all. Gold looks even better. Once $1520 is taken out, this correction is over.

    Turd, we will see your $1600 call before too long. Friends, don't get discouraged by this recent action. Shit happens. Stay long and strong bitchez.

    Bay of Pigs

  43. Can't wait to short POSX, then go long oil, gold, and silver. But I will show patience and wait for May 21. I might put in a little XAG before the new Hong Kong exchange open May 18

  44. There's "no bottom" to Silver according to some Reuters shill on CNBS.

    Has he never herad of Turd's bottom??

  45. @Quintus,

    I fully admit I am purposefully appearing to be naive here.

    But I think the point is that these are really blatant and open trangressions/criminal actions.

    Just think for a minute how much money was openly stolen in the Sunday night crash?? Now think about how much money has been stolen over the last couple of DECADES.

    At some point, the American citizenry and/or their representatives need to step up.

    I think Mr. Butler makes a great point when he wonders aloud whether ANYONE would be so comlacent if, say Crude oil had gone UP 12% in 12 minutes.

    So why should it be different with silver?

    If we have sunk so far as a nation that we are no longer respecting basic rule of LAW, that says a lot.

    At the very least, we must recognize that. As Turd says on his blog banner: PREPARE ACCORDINGLY.

  46. Dr Durden,

    I too felt consternation upon first reading that article, but upon reflection I came to my senses.

    This article deals in the end game only, not the pathway to the end.

    The article does not deal with the whole process which is our road to and through hyperinflation. Instead it focuses on the end only.

    Now I agree that Gold is certainly the safest bet, because it is in fact universally looked upon as money. I agree also that Gold will back future currencies in some form, likely digitally. With this in mind, ofcourse being a holder of gold would be an excellent play.

    But there are many trials and tribulations not discussed on this road to the end game.

    What will happen before and during hyperinflation. Will you be better off with 100 silver eagles or 2 gold coins? In a barter economy, will someone accept 20-50-100 silver coins per 1 gold ounce? I would bet, and kind of am betting that a likely ratio of silver to gold will be 20 to 1. (possibly 25)

    Now for those out there will significant savings, even $100K, I would suggest to them to put 60% in gold. But if you are one with meager savings like most silver bugs, I would put the lions share in silver. 10 gold coins simply are not going to get you near as far as 450 silver ones.

    When fiat is destroyed and one holds coins in their hand you are not going to get a trading ratio of 50 or 45 to 1 silver for gold.

    Silver is for surviving, gold is a luxury. Just my opinion.

  47. Justin

    regarding the FOFOA article ... I haven't read it but planned on waiting to hear input from others ... after hearing quite a few people comment I am choosing not to read it and here is why ... I have a firm belief in silver as an investment ... I don't know who FOFOA is or if he has any credentials ... all the people I have followed to this point have been right ... Sprott, Embry, Turk, Degraaf, Rickards, Davies, Rogers and more ... as Jesse Livermore would tell you don't allow negativity to cloud your belief system so I choose not to

  48. Think we are going to have a battle at 38. Might even start today. Just looking at bands etc 38 looks like a spot we might hesitate. MHO

  49. Winker,

    I wouldn't sell them on eBay. The fees will eat you up and dealing directly with multiple individuals has its risks.

    This is what I use:

    Sell your items on their exchange for the price you want to ask or sell at the current bid if you are in a hurry. They only charge 1% for handling the transaction and the whole process is much safer and easier than selling on eBay.

    Their inbound shipping service is great and reasonably priced, and takes the worries about insurance.

    Read the FAQ's to see how it all works.

  50. Looks like some major short covering occurring so far...

  51. To the guy who asked about liquidation on Ebay:

    It is more efficient to liquidate items on Ebay in a few large lots than lots of smaller ones.

    The downside is that it will price smaller bidders out of the market.

    The upside is you will pay less in Ebay fees, generally get a higher quality of bidder (fewer non paying bidders), and it will be easier to keep track of payments/shipping/logistics.

    Also, it pays off to take the time and do a quality auction listing... quality pictures, good formatting, verbose auction description, spell out the terms of sale, and so on. If someone is going to spend a sizable amount of money on an auction, that extra quality in your auction listing is good piece of mind for the buyer and can translate to extra bids.

  52. Chin Music,

    FOFOA articles on Hyperinflation are very good. They are well reasoned although perhaps too long.

    Now his free gold theory is acceptable as well in my mind.

    However the only gold no silver at the table for future money doesn't make sense to me. The dominant cultures moving forward still see silver as money (China/India). They are the future and they will include a place for gold & silver.

    I am of the opinion that even the one worlder's will have to have a place for silver in their world currency because of the Chinese and Indian's affection for Silver.

    Is it "as good as gold?" No. But it doesnt mean its a garbage industrial metal only.


  53. eBay is a good place to sell any oddball items though. But of course I am buying now, not selling. I was selling stuff a little over a week ago. Time to buy now.

  54. Chin, article-+1+1+1+1+1+1+1+1

  55. Hey about those Wings?!!!!!

  56. whether it is a rebound or a new bull, can understand that there is always tepidations at this stage after the severe plunge.

    But long term astro cycle has indicated potential of turn around from last week into this week. FWIW.

  57. Winker, I agree that Ebay and Paypal fees can eat most of the premium on SAE sales, not to mention that PayPal is a bank and the "income" may be reported. Craigslist means cash. Public meeting place away from home (duh). Bank or Starbucksworks best.

  58. Atlee I agree 38 is a place to watch, but I'm thinking before the week is out we're going to see $105 crude, 1520 gold which could put silver up to around $40...that's a bit of resistance last time up. We'll see I guess.

  59. Please comment on Martin Armstrong's latest missive the Silver Crash. He seems to think that Silver is done...

  60. Chin,

    If you are the curious sort give FOFOA a look. There are three authors running this thesis profferd back in 1997. It is quite intersting.

    These guys were right on gold, the bailouts, the end of the debt/fiat currencies, and inflation. They also make the best argument why a gold standard is a bad idea (a free floating gold price is better).

    I think they are wrong on silver and the euro. The authors are not anti-silver, it is more the community that will not discuss it rationally.

    Finally their entire premise is that the gold price is suppressed. The big shots in the world hold gold and it will be revalued to a much, much higher price ($55,000). I'm not sure on this point. It was postulated 14 years ago and it still hasn't arrived.

    Take what you will from this but FOFOA is compelling. There is lots more there, these wer just the main points that stuck with me. I highly recommend these guys.

  61. Waffen

    thank you for the insight ... I don't have a problem looking at hyperinflation articles so I may check those out ... Gold no Silver would not make sense to me either ... silver has been used as money as far back as the early books of the Bible so that is NOT going to change ... again I don't need that kind of negativity even if it's future looking ... thanks again

    Rick ole buddy ...

    how's it going man ... yeah, how about those wings ... Datsyuk is hot ... 2 more man, just need 2 more ... if they can get past the Sharks I believe they can win it all

  62. Chiming in about the FOFOA article. Been a long time reader of FOFOA, long time, he is and always was and will be a Gold aficionado. He is anti silver and always has been. Research some of his previous article he always bashes Silver. So take the noise with a grain of salt. I enjoy FOFOA very much and I am a continued supporter.

  63. Nice looking one-minute charts in silver, gold, USD (mostly down), and WTI crude for past few minutes.

    In fact, the poop is even clearing - ;-) - from the live cam of the American eagles nest in Iowa, as it's raining there right now.

    (A poop shot from one of the three eaglets has obscured about 1/3 of the view for the past few days.)

    Thanks to whoever posted the link to this live cam here - I have it as the home page on a browser I don't use for anything else on my second monitor, and that browser as a start-up item, so without having to do anything, my day always starts with live American eagles.

    (The view now is temporarily blurry only because the lens is wet from the rain.)

  64. My stocks did a nice reversal over the last few days. The usual suspects (AG,EXK,RVM) are doing particularly well.

    I think I'm going to sell all my stocks and trade in for physical silver. I'm not thinking the stocks will do bad, I'm just thinking I want to reach my silver accumulation goal on this dip.

  65. I'm home sick today so I can add an afternoon comment for a change.

    Silver has had a robust day so far. It will be interesting to watch as it approaches 38 and the close.

  66. Klaverius

    Thanks ... as stated in my last post I will look into the hyperinflation info and go from there ... I don't believe anyone can knock me off silver as a viable investment anyway as I could give a boatload of reasons ... if I dabble over there it will take a few weeks but I will post back here thoughts.

  67. @ another opinion

    sounds great to me!! I think 40 is doable also.

  68. If you enjoy FOFOA, then check out "Flow Of Value" - he's also a freegold advocate. He has some very good and shorter articles about "money".

    Check out this thought-provoking one:

  69. BTW Chin am interested in your views on health. I will be watching for your next wknd post. For a Michigander you are an interesting guy. :D

  70. @Bob,

    Martin Armstrong seems to be mind set for his Jun 13/14 low for PM in accordance to his ECM. I don't know but i search the astro long term cycle, it is a low arond 19/6 but there is a further low around 14/8, which i think will be a more significant low for 2011.

    From 5/5, the astro timing model is currently forecasting for an up trend towards 19/5, drop to 23/5 and then resume its upward trend towards month end of 26/5, then a big drop towards 7/6. I assume this should apply for both gold and silver.


  71. Just my 2 cents worth from a guy who has a bias toward gold. I can't really stand FOFOA. Way way too wordy. A good writer would be able to make it more concise. I get the feeling that whoever writes that crap is trying to create the aura of "wow, this guy must be really really smart to write so much. I don't quite know what the hell he is saying, but he must be really really smart. And if I pretend to understand it all, then people will think I'm really really smart too."

  72. Chin, right about Ag. And FOFOA :-0)

    Atlee: you like it, I like it!

    Titus: I think you've got it right: reap shares profits and buy Ag now. I'm seriously considering a portfolio makeover that leaves me with just a few mostly Yukon area explorer/juniors and migrates the bulk of my ammo upscale to a handful of carefully selected mid-range miners. NGD, UXG, EXK and FVITF are 4 I have in mind.

    As of now, the 10 oz bars I bought at $375 on Friday on Bullion Direct Nucleo Exchange are going for $380 Bid; $415 Ask. So far, so good. I'll be paying for that Ag with miner shares I sell this week.

    Of course I'm hoping I didn't just jinx it all.

  73. The PO$X is about the strongest it's been in approx. the last 6-8 weeks from the Euro/Greece tug-of-war and oil, gold and silver (aka Big 3) continue to go up inspite of all those margin hikes and a pending one later today.
    I don't want to get too optimistic, given what happened the past two weeks in the PM's and crude etc.
    But given the extreme ranges of the PO$X, oil, Au and Ag lately, it's probably not a stretch to say that once the PO$X comes back down to Earth that the big 3 will quickly seek the level where they were previous to the Cartel's heavy handedness. Now that a lot of the small buyers have been shaken out it seems the big money will come back on lower volume and wider swings in price seem inevitable.
    The ZH story on the Hong Kong PM market about to open up in a 2 weeks is a game changer. I wouldn't be suprised that the insider info. on that story wasn't a big part of the reason the margin hikes happened when they did along with the Comex physical PM shortage also. The inside money probably realizes they are about to lose control somewhat and they created (via margin hikes) a drasticly quick PM/oil correction because they know it's about to go much higher and soon.

    TF is right, something is about to rupture soon in MENA. There is no way the U.S. is going to continue to sit and watch Syria massacre their people, Israel is not going to wait to see what direction the PLO goes and Egypt has remained ugly and is turning more into a anti-Israel hardline Islamic state with each passing day.
    I left out Bahrain and Libya is getting less MSM coverage everyday.
    Pakistan is one embarressed, pissed off tinder box right now and after the Prez. successfully pulled off a ballsy military mission decision he is feeling confident and emboldened.
    Something is brewing in Pakistan and Obama will act further. It's a given at this point.
    Can anyone imagine what type of Al Qaedea info. that U.S. forces recovered?
    Probably some real eye opening intel and we will act asap no matter what Pakistan thinks.
    TF is right, it's going to be a interesting next 2-3 months or sooner.
    Maybe it's just me, but TF's "fear" quote sounded a lot like Tweety-Bird impersonation to me.
    Watching some classic cartoons this a.m. TF?

  74. LOL! Eric I agree with what you stated 1000000%

    Way over written. Sometimes I get to the end of his musings and I am mentally exhausted lol.

  75. thanks average joe,

    check out the historical support on gold 150 moving average on the one day chart- consistent solid support

    I'm combining Pailins (RSI) and Atlee's indicators.

    Dear Atlee

    what way should your stochastic interact with the bollinger band - i've been through a lot of yoru posts but couldn't work it out.

  76. Michael said... "a repressed Brit?" - Us Brits, repressed?

    Like a Southern Baptist preacher's daughter. ;-)

  77. Eric, I just missed your tee off on foafie, but it was classic you.

    DPH: If by chance you don't know of KWN or have not heard the Rick Rule interview and seen James Turks blog entry, I REALLY recommend em!


    Rule audio:

    Enjoy all!

  78. Eric #1....LOL! That was funny!
    I hear you.
    There is some very good content and thoughts in FOFOA but the writing style or whatever is like "Once upon a time..." type stuff and kind of Alice in Wonderland at times.
    Hard to describe by myself (obviously) but it is kind of mythical sounding like Lord of the Ring characters on sedatives.

  79. This comment has been removed by the author.

  80. Martin Armstrong's work is based on cycle analysis. You can thing of positive and negative cycles as tailwinds and headwinds.

    The fact that gold and silver have made so much headway during a cyclical weak period where the 'winds' were against them tells us just how strong they really are. Just wait until the winds shift into our favor!

    The events of the past week will look like mere noise on the chart a year or two from now.

  81. Rick

    I am glad you like the health posts ... I won't be doing more for awhile and maybe not till the new site is up ... but the first post over the weekend is the major part ... if one doesn't have that there is no foundation ... you can't build on sand

  82. This comment has been removed by the author.

  83. Does anyone remember silver price action nearing the end of QE1? Before QE2 was confirmed.

    IMO this is important. I wasn't trading then. Couldn't that be a good template on how the next month goes?

  84. anyone know what time the margin hikes are effective at?
    close of the NYMEX or GlobalEx?

  85. shill...if you get to the end of an FOFOA musing you are a far more patient man than I.

  86. Can only be more postponing of the debt ceiling vote. Only way dead head feds can keep, the many one brain celled DIMMS of AmeriCON'd not catching on; QE 3 is certain. Longer the debt ceiling vote is dragged out the longer feds can keep a certain qe III off the table. After that it's panic selling the USDINKer which you should be any way and getting something for your FRNs while you still can.

  87. ewc58

    read Turk this morning and second your rec. ... I have been meaning to get to R.Rule since the weekend ... thanks for reminding me ... he is another I could have included in my earlier list.

  88. Final OI for Friday out, FINALLY!! 129k for silver. Kind of bullish, but not fully bullish. COT didn't show that much short covering either. Still a lot more bullish than 2 weeks ago at 45, 50 though ;).

    Hoping for further decreases.

  89. got it bro'. All just FRN games. FRNs will fade like ferns by Nov.


    I'm reading this but I'm having some issues with it. More comments later but here is my first:

    "Here’s another potential headwind for the “silver to the moon” guys - the industrial silver users themselves. The manufacturers of the devices which use much of the consumed silver are in cutthroat competitive markets. They have to work hard to remove costs from their products. That includes silver of course. Higher silver prices give them even more incentive to focus on cutting down the silver content or replacing it with a lesser alternative such as copper. FOFOA has an anecdote about one such manufacturer that has already eliminated silver from his process. That said, I will concede that the expanding industrial uses for silver and increasing global demand for products containing silver may fully offset any reductions that the industrial users can make. "

    Well yes, but so what? What's the point?

    It happened to gold. It's still happening to gold. Is it a headwind for gold?

    Gold is the material of choice for bonding wires inside integrated circuits (the "chips" inside computers, cell phones, etc.). But in recent years, gold price has risen so high that chip manufacturers are trying to replace the gold wires with platinum.

    Another example: in my workshop I have several hundred transistor devices from the 1980s. These devices have gold-plated leads. These days, the cost would be prohibitive, but back then it wasn't - it was a practical application.

    Yes, of course, manufacturers will look for alternatives to silver as its price rises. How expensive does silver have to be before it gets replaced on a wide scale? The answer will vary in each application.

    It's possible that, due to innovation, cheaper substitutes will be so effective that they will destroy much existing industrial demand for silver.

    "Creative destruction" of demand does happen. Transistors destroyed much of the demand for vacuum tubes. LCDs destroyed much of the demand for CRT displays.

    It's also possible that, due to innovation, silver will replace some *other* expensive material and silver demand will increase.

    Do you want to bet on silver demand falling rather than increasing? In the short term? Good luck.

  91. My 2c on the FOFOA/ Costata silver article: Advanced civilization CREATED the need for money- when you have a division of labor you create the need for indirect exchange- if I am a cabinet maker I cannot make 1/87th of a cabinet to buy a dozen eggs from you, hence the need for something to use as "money" to facilitate indirect exchange.

    So IF FOFOA's freegold eventually creates 55,000 per oz prices, how do they think they (the gold holders walking with the 'giants') will pay for a dozen eggs? With one 41,379th of an oz of gold? How many people, in such a world, would be able to buy a single oz of gold? Silver always has and always will be the poor mans gold. They will BOTH have a prime seat at the table when fiat crashes.

    The oldest PM coins ever found in archaeological sites worldwide were from the Lydian kingdom, minted around 650 BC. They were made from something known as Electrum- it is a naturally occuring element that is a blend of BOTH gold and silver. Freegold? I say FreeElectrum.

  92. Nov. 3 2010 was date QE2 was offically announced.

    2 year chart looks to have a little dip going into that the announcement. But nice rallies a month and half before(where we are now), and month after. Spike right after it looks like to me.

    I hate to be giving out false info. I was not trading then and these are observations from 2 year graph. And only considering QE2 other outside factors were definitly in play.

    Are my thoughts way off? Or do you think we hit rocky roads when Ben starts to pretend QE2 is done.

  93. I think the dollar must be crushed in order for Americans to accept this. My take is the only way to protect yourself is physical metals

  94. Regarding FOFOA's silver demand/supply brain wank, I'd like to re-post something from last thread:

    A little perspective: the world's mines produce about 700mio ounces a year and total annual supply amounts to 1000mio oz. If only 100 million people purchased 10oz of physical silver per year, all of that would be gone.

    And mind you, 100 million people is probably 5 or 10% of the world's population that could easily afford using 300 or 500$ of their money for investment purposes each year.

    China alone will probably provide that kind of money flow into the PMs in a few years time. So who the hell needs industrial users :). Of course, by then, industrial users will still be competing with investment demand for available silver supply.

  95. Seems like the Sprott announcement is going to put a floor on silver prices, and lead to even tighter inventories.

    Probably goes a long way to explaining today's $2 jump in the price of silver.

  96. shill...if you get to the end of an FOFOA musing you are a far more patient man than I.


    Booze helps :)

  97. Great Panther

    Dealers and Customers...


  98. Someone explain to me what is going on with HZU.TO.....up 235% today?

  99. Iran doing final pre-start tests at nuclear plant


    If You Can't Stand The Margin Heat, Buy Real Silver
    Ryan Jordan

    I always appreciate getting email from readers, even when they don't see things my way (sometimes because I am not bullish enough on silver, if you can believe that one). Sometimes, I can tell that the person writing me is truly speculating with some various form of leveraged silver contract or ETF. This does not necessarily have to be a COMEX contract: I now know there is more than one leveraged ETF that trades in silver, plus I realize some people play options, another form of leverage.


  101. @Pining...

    I think you have misunderstood the freegold argument. No one will be buying anything will the gold. It will just be a "fairer" way to store your wealth in something that is not as easily manipulated as fiat/$ currency is...basically in this system of freegold it will be understood that over time the currency will become devalued (as that is the end result of fiat) and we will all continue to use currency but when you have enough that you need to store it away for future use, you will convert it into gold and hold it and sell it back for currency should u need it again, with the intention that it will continue to buy the same basket of goods for the same amt of gold even 100 yrs down the road

  102. I'm not a daily reader and sure this has been posted but saw this on another forum and found it interesting....

    "How nice is it that China is opening Gold futures trading in 9 days? The monopoly in the metals futures at COMEX is finally coming to its just end. There's a new gunslinger in town. It's called HKMex. The HongKong exchange is opening futures trading in gold starting May 18.

    See what happens when you cheat, COMEX? It's game over! And game over for all the cheatin' TBTF banks, starting with JPM.

    I just love it... just when you think that the Banks and other assorted criminals have the upper hand, along comes China to stick their thumb in the eye of Jamie Dimon and his pack of thugs."

  103. Another extract from

    "For many years the Perth Mint funded their gold and silver inventory through a certificate program backed by unallocated pools. The deal was simple, they got their inventory funded (less capital tied up) and the certificate holders got safe, free storage of their metal. The certificates could be exchanged for fabricated metal or cash. Recently the Perth Mint announced a change to this program which you can read about here and here. If you want to be part of the pooled unallocated silver program in future you will have to pay them storage fees. Let me break this down for the stragglers, they have plenty of silver, perhaps much more than they need and they don’t foresee any shortages in the near future. "

    OK, let's check the Perth Mint press release:

    "...We’re making the change from Unallocated to Pool Allocated because the amount of Unallocated silver we hold on behalf of clients now exceeds that required to support our business activities. We had targeted a certain amount of excess Unallocated “buffer stock” but rising insurance and other costs plus growing demand have accelerated our decision to close Unallocated.
    At this stage Unallocated gold is not affected but it too will close at some point as gold demand also continues to be strong."

    Perth Mint doesn't want to keep any excess stock, partly because the demand-supply balance is tightening.

    "Plenty of silver" you say? No, that doesn't follow.

    "Perhaps much more than they need" you say. Well I can use weasel words too. *Perhaps* it's much less than they need. *Perhaps* supply will be overwhelmed by demand from Asia, even with the new silver production line.

    With *perhaps* you can say anything.

    What's the point? You're clever with words? Congratulations.

  104. Sumo & Pining for the Fjords

    excellent points could not agree more ....


    good call there ... as we head toward the perceived end of any QE program we would normally see a dip ... If these programs become common place (end - restart) I believe the market will disconnect and pay no attention just like silver and gold will ultimately decouple from the dollar which in my mind it has displayed a good deal of that over the past 6 months.

  105. Not sure if anyone has posted this, but I have found myself immersed in the archives of Another and FOA. Great primer to understanding FOFOA and the idea of freegold.


    If I were wealthy enough to only care about gold then I would probably have similar views on silver as them. However like many here, I am in a position where I am focused on GROWING wealth not just protecting it. I am currently 50/50 gold and silver.

  106. It may seem coincidental that FOFOA and MSM are both discouraging peeps on silver ownership. On the other hand it may not.

  107. Re FOFOA, the fact that we prefer to discuss it here and not on their site indicates that it is a 'who is smarter than whom' competition over there. The hyperinflation piece is, though, a masterpiece of logic, but the freegold thing is expressed as if they couldn't bear for anyone to understand it. The confusion could have to do with his politics getting in the way of economics unlike the hyperinflation one....e.g. the consequence of freegold being 'the end of socialism' and a guarantee of 'meritocracy'.....glad i remembered to have a goldmine in my backyard and looted my war victories properly so my merit is a slamdunk. But surely if a country had loads of oil and gold, they could spend as much as they liked internally, free guinness on every street corner...
    Also, their argument of one reference point other than two is that people will always go to the obvious one (of gold), i see that as a bit like going to the superdome in katrina (or grand central station at noon as he says), i.e. there are other options, that's a bit esoteric that part...
    The key condition for freegold is apparently the end of all paper metals (and i would assume full auditing and no cheating).
    As regards a point made above about silver being used as a means of exchange, in the new order of things freegold would permit paper and electronic currencies again.
    Apologies for this post being so.....SHORT!!!!!
    P.S. If you and I are too thick to understand the subject, then good luck to anyone else! Gosh Fofoa you are so clever, we are not worthy!!!!!
    Regards, Ed the Moron :)

  108. Even if it's "already priced in", will the rate hike today just be another convenient excuse for the Cartel to stomp on silver again?

    If I were a trader I'd be tempted to go short here. Since I'm not, they can't have mine and I ain't sellin'.

  109. Turd, many thanks for all your work on this blog, it's helped me a lot.

    And also thanks for that Avery Goodman article link, it helped me understand much better what's going on in silver.

  110. For once, I had a hard time filling my mouth with words.

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    "Are you feeling poorly?" Frank asked and Zedekiah Smith laughed.
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