Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Turnaround Tuesday

In a reversal that, once again, leaves The Turd shaking his head, today is the polar opposite of yesterday. Everything that WOPR was discarding yesterday is being repurchased today. It's enough to make you crazy if you let it. This is why, here in Turd's World, we believe in the primary trend and try to buy long-term options only. Trying to outguess the whims of the algos or anticipate Fed-speak MOPE will either bankrupt you or put you in the Nut House...or both.

On the bright side, most everything continues to improve from a technical standpoint. First, take a look at gold. The trendline from Turd's Bottom back in January is still very much intact and it is looking to keep churning higher. As mentioned repeatedly, 1525 is your first hurdle. Through there, gold can move quickly toward 1540 and 1550.

Overnight, silver broke out of the pennant I drew for you late yesterday. The battle at $36 now begins. If you need a refresher on the challenges of that number, read this:
And this:
Add to that the peaks at $36.50 which you see below and you've got the basis for a gargantuan struggle. Additionally, there is very little to contain silver between 36.50 and 39 so we can all expect quite a fight to keep it below $36.50. Despite the action overnight, I still expect that it will take multiple attempts over several days to finally get $36.50 to fall. If we can pull it off by the end of the week, I'll be very happy. Silver will be right on schedule to go tackle 39.50 by early June and then roll toward 42 or 43 by mid to late June. In case you've forgotten, this was your "roadmap":

I got all excited about crude late Friday only to have it beaten back sharply before I could even have a cup of coffee on Monday. Well, it looks better today. $96 has held again and, sometime soon, encouraged longs are going to feel confident that their downside is limited so they will aggressively plunge back into this market. A move UP through the trendline will be your first clue. A close above $101.50 will be next and then crude will rush toward $105.

Lastly, physical metal continues to be scarce so I beg you to NOT sell your precious "insurance". If you are worried about falling prices and volatility then, by all means, call up a broker and buy some put options in order to hedge your position. Here's a link to help you with that:
I've received several emails lately, mostly from European Turdites, concerning the safety and availability of gold in Swiss accounts. I don't know a lot about that as I'm just a simpleton here in Anytown, USA, but where there is smoke, there is often fire.
Delays are getting longer and multi-million dollar lawsuits are piling up. If you wait to physically deliver your metal or if you blindly trust in your custodian, I fear you may deeply regret your procrastination.
Physical is physical and paper is paper.

Have a great day. Let's see if we can add to these gains. TF


  1. Transports say elmo is coming for the DOW.

    Stay vigilant.

  2. Scott,

    That actin on Revett this morning was criminal. Just bald faced cheating. I kept putting in ridiculous orders at 3.28, 3.23, 3.17. Didn't get filled. Apparently, only the connected get shake-out bids met.

    You got to ask yourself: why flush out the stops today? You snatch up the shares cheap when you expect it to run. So maybe we're about to see some action to the upside. Either way, that was well executed crime.

  3. Good stuff Turd :)
    Bots running the stops up right now. 10am Housing is essentially priced in and a world of woe for longs when the report comes out negative and then XAG falls. I'll be looking for the bottom of that run to buy back in...

  4. Raises hand for trying to outsmart algos...luckily not losing money though.

  5. Turd, are we gonna get some volatility from the options expiration tomorrow? I didn't know if that would be much of an issue since we are much lower this month compared to last? Maybe another entry point tomorrow?

  6. Fed's Hoenig calls for new limits on bank activity


    Fed mouth piece's are out in force.

  7. I have to say...this is extremely impressive. That GSR didn't know what hit it! Lost a buck + already!

    POSX not doing much...well a little down.
    EURUSD hangin tough.
    Commodities (Corn, Wheat) slightly down.
    WTI trying to challenge $100 again.

    Word ver: fibachil

  8. @ SSK

    I agree, criminal indeed, the way it traded at 3.08 premarket... and what is up with this DJIA news "Ind, 2.25-3.25" --> what a total sham. The last time they flushed like this it tanked shortly after, this time I agree with your prognosis of clearing the innocent stops before making a move later in the day. Even have a fearful PR newsrelease by our market maker friends. CRIMINAL indeed. What else is new in our world...

  9. We are now considerably outside the top Bollinger on every chart 8hr and less. If you have a long that you want to cash in on and buy back lower...now would be the time :)

    I'm flat and getting really tempted to throw a small short up right now.

  10. Rather unexpected but might see a test of 36.50 today. If so, I think I will close my June calls and reopen July calls on a downtrend.

    Thanks for the advice Turd, I would have wussed out with a big loss if I hadn't had your guidance to work with.

  11. Scott,

    I do not see "DJIA news "Ind, 2.25-3.25" -->" on the news. Do you have a link?

  12. WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--New-home sales rose more than expected and the median price climbed in April, but the overall pace of sales remained weak for the battered U.S. sector.

    Sales increased by 7.3% on a monthly basis to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 323,000 in April, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.

    Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast sales would remain unchanged at an annual rate of 300,000.

    Despite the unexpected increase, sales since a year ago are down sharply, having fallen 23.1% since April 2010, which is when a tax subsidy for first-time home buyers ended.

    Sales rose 8.3% in March, revised down from a previously estimated 11.1% increase. The March jump followed a February plunge that was blamed on the weather as well as fundamental troubles in the housing sector.

    Uncertainty over property prices has made homebuyers hesitant to purchase new houses. Lower selling prices weighed down PulteGroup Inc. (PHM) in its first quarter, with the builder's revenues tumbling by 21%.

    Home construction in April fell sharply, the government reported last week. Builders face competition from previously owned homes, which cost less. A wave of foreclosures caused by the housing bust and the deep recession swamped the market with cheap property.

    The median price for an existing home in the U.S. is $163,700, the latest data show. The median price for a new home, on the other hand, was $217,900 in April, Tuesday's report said. A year earlier, the median price for a new home was $208,300. The increase was encouraging because prices have been sinking for a long time, making consumers reluctant to buy because of a belief prices might recede further.

    Unsold homes on the market have kept down prices. Tuesday's data showed April inventories were at a record low. But the time it would take to exhaust the supply of unsold homes on the market was 6.5 months in April, above the baseline of six months that economists consider healthy. The supply in March was 7.2 months and it had been much higher just last summer, hitting nine months.

    The Commerce report said new-home sales in April rose in all four U.S. regions on a monthly basis. Sales increased by 7.7% in the Northeast, 15.1% in the West, 4.9% in the Midwest, and 4.3% in the South.

  13. New Home Sales Rise Again in April, Up 7.3% to 323,000, Topping Estimates (story developing)

  14. Actual (323k) > Forecast (305K) = good for currency

  15. New XAUEUR high again.

    Is that the 10AM surprise?

  16. Out at 36.30. Waiting for a new entry point for July calls now.

  17. NGD bumping against 9.50. We breakthrough and there is some real upside.

    Look at EXK. Wow

  18. U.S. April new home sales up 7.3%


    Yep all those newly employed McDonald workers are buying 3, 4 and $500,000 dollar homes on $9 bucks an Hour.

    I call bluff.

  19. didn't that "woman" a day or so again say that around mid day London time this would happen...can't remember exactly what she said...was just wondering

  20. @SSK

    Can't find the link on yahoo, but here is a screenshot I took of the news ticker.


    Load of crap imo.

  21. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/05/24/576501/the-uk-is-concerned-about-banks-that-warehouse-commodities/

    Don't know what the hell it means, except that the Morgue is being naughty with silver this side of the pond.

  22. The real news

    New home sales down 23% yoy.

  23. Sadly, due some bad puts that I had kept way too long I'm showing a small loss for my 2 most recent trades on SLV after factoring in taxes.

    Hopefully I can make it back and more with some more action in the future.

  24. LOL...after that breakneck upmove, Silver doin an Air Jordan now.

    ...whoops...normal transmission resumed! :P

  25. New homes, - 2010, which was ABYSMAL is in the first column, 2011 in the second:


    Wait until the next month's "seasonal adjustments" kick the daylights out of this bogus number.

    Confirmed nothing to see here. Metals tells the true story...People are Fed up with the BS

  26. Wow, I'm trying to hold my AGQs bought at $34 silver until Turd's Top, but it's so temping to sell now and book some serious profit...It's a good problem to have, but still, it's a problem.

  27. So this is how it feels to make money. I nearly forgot.

    Scott, I think those short RVM saw the coming storm in pms and decided to sew chaos on the chart. It's actually worked. Fear has overshadowed this pop in metals. The float is so small, they just might get away with it.

  28. Guess we keep waiting for the sells to come? One thing I know is that I definitely ain't buying up here :)

  29. I see very little resistence on gold all the way up 1560 (a little over the daily BB). I'm adding to my position. Any $5-10 pullback looks buyable to me.

    I'll take that action. Good short the other day at 1515. Seems like here is a bad short.

  30. After the Sunday massacre, I decided to keep track on stock exchange holidays. I show London holiday on 5/30 & China on 6/6.

    With our potential gains we are seeing, anybody concerned of a repeat?

  31. The only way I'm buying is a clean break of 36.50. If not...wait.

  32. Moody’s puts several of UK banks at risk of a financial meltdown:


  33. After issuing sell signals in April, GS has now turned bullish commodities. Guess they had time to get long first?

  34. Hmm that was interesting. Gold just lead the dollar by about 5 mins. USDX chart waffeling around, gold punches through 1525 THEN the USDX takes a very sharp nose dive of .20% with no reaction from gold. I don't remember gold leading the dollar? Mabey it was just coincidence... mabey not. This is too much energy I am wondering what news item is out there I have not heard yet...

  35. I don't really trade a lot, but it's nice to see my core longs showing a pulse.

  36. sp here, can't log in w/google today for some reason

    anyways i went long yest evening agq, slv and gld options. already unloading some of it now

  37. alright now, I finally stayed discliplined and took some bullets back, letting one ride. Was tempted to let it ride but have held for 3 days so no settlements keeping me from buying right back in...

    Now, just hoping the expected dip pans out...

    edit - lol, word verification: horide

  38. Just sold off a little NGD at 9.60. Gotta lock in some gains on shares bought yesterday at 9.15.

  39. forexpros is the site I usually get my charting from but it appears to be having technical difficulties. What are some other good streaming chart sites that I can use?

    Any recommendations?

  40. @LevelHeaded
    Not sure if you're being sarcastic with me or not, but I talk day trades. Only a fool would still be holding that short at 1515..as a day trade. Likewise, why buy at 1527 when 1515 is going to happen again, possibly today or later in the week? Friday has been very week for longs lately. I'll wait for that too, though I'm actually more inclined to buy on a re-test of 1500, around 1505-10 or so.

    I'm not shorting right now, the near topside is undefined for both gold and silver, except 36.50 and the downside is quite a ways down there. Still going to sit flat and let my core enjoy these present gains.

  41. Lake Shore Gold is jumping. Not sure why, as I see no news.

  42. so london fix should be here any sec now...waiting for the "magic"

  43. Good charting links...



  44. NAS just went ELMO...down she goes.

  45. @KK - netdania's good, I like their chartstation where you can see 4 at once. I keep AU,AG,WTI,USDX open...

    http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/live-charts/ is another option.

  46. @spr1234 - I had issues posting too. had to restart my browser...

  47. @Kiwi

    I am right there with you about AGQ. what to do with it? I've booked some nice fiat gains, but that run up was nice. sell and wait for a pullback to get back in or hold til turd's top? hmmm

  48. @pailin

    No I was giving you a complement. I remember you shorting at 1515 and we basically couldn't get over that price for a whole day and then bottomed around 1503. I assumed you covered and made money. You may be able to do that here. Hmmm...$12 pullback from 1529 to 1517? That could happen just to fill the GLD gap from this morning. Not likely in my mind but could happen.

  49. Mommy can I short this please?

  50. Tomorrow (5/25) is Comex Expiration Date. I would be severely suprised if we just kept chugging. Tomorrow may offer a dip (small maybe) if history has any bearing on what will happen in the future (no guarentees these days).

    Take a look at Jesse's Graph's to see what I am talking about:


    Conclusion: I think tomorrow may be a better buying opportunity to catch the next upleg (if it is indeed coming) than today. Who knows though. Out to do some stuff, good luck to all.

  51. Mommy can I short this please?


    No! get to your room young man!...lol

  52. $5 pullback from 1529, I'm taking it.

  53. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/inquiry-monopolistic-trading-practices-jpmorgan-lme-launched-sending-pms-higher

  54. to see the look on my face right now,
    please see my avatar

  55. @sp actually London is 8 hours behind pacific time if I remember right. Trinity claimed it would happen at mid day. That was 4am west coast time when the dollar spiked down and gold went to 1523 on a nearly vertical run. I believe Atlee further interpreted that rumor to be either midday or at the London fix at 3pm their time and 7am our time. We did get a big pop, breaking 1525 took a lot of energy. Gold is trading with lots of little distribution runs in the ticks and volitility right now. Short of some sort of news driver we have yet to see how many people are hopping off the bus at this level since we have that big market downturn overhang shorting peoples time frame to hold things. I know I have reservations about holding through Monday for instance.

  56. Richmond Fed Collapse: Atlantic Region Manufacturing Enters Contraction As Raw Material Prices Increase At Highest Rate Since Index Inception


  57. I am sure this has been addressed before, but could someone enlighten me why I see different spot prices on Kitco vs Netdania charts (.11 difference as I write this)?

  58. Day traders, although you may be good TA's going to burn and make very little fiat.

    When clear trend is established why not by Long-Term options and not take part in the violence.

  59. @LevelHeaded
    Ok, sorry, misread you.
    Actually I was long 1490 and sold at 1503. Was looking to rebuy around 1480-1490 and missed out during last dip playing with XAG. Then it ran away from me completely and I haven't been in since. Gold is holding up much nicer than silver, so I won't be shorting it for a while, maybe not at all. Silver is more fun for that :)

    Patience friend. Waterfalls would be more 11am-noon ET today if they follow pattern, and as noted there's COMEX expiry tomorrow too. Not sure what the action will be like there. I'm dying to see what the COT from today's COMEX close looks like when we get it later in the week. The shorts have not been hammering us as usual, so they may be nearly all gone from silver.

  60. @Sevin

    My big fear is selling and then missing a big runup overnight while I wait for the dip... I did a lot of that in the last big move, and I'm trying to learn from my mistakes. Plus I'm not sure it's worth the stress of trying to time a dip just for a few dollars extra.

  61. ah, here is the news item!


    Also turd was being asked from Europeans if their gold was safe in a vault. This is uh vault run fear we are seeing here I think. People are starting to panic it looks like. No wonder really Greece has been downgraded, those clowns at the ratings agency only do rating changes once it is WAY TOO LATE. lol.

  62. Because Kitco employs curmudgeonly senior citizens to enter the updated figures.

    This is no skin off you oldNavy cause I hear you're a randy ole sailorboy.

  63. Greek CDS make a new record

    They’ve reached 1496 bp, up over 5% again today. Bloomberg reports that at this price, they reflect a 71% chance of a Greek default in the next 5-years (the length of the contract).


  64. @G: seriously dude. Your schtick is getting tiresome.

  65. @"G"
    Can't speak for anybody else, but my day trades never burn me and they also make me little fiat. That's by design. It's play, it's fun, and sometimes frustrating, but mostly it pays the bills. Core handles the rich upside, and handles it very well.

  66. @Pailin - "never"? I've been burned, but it's always educational so not a comlete loss...

  67. This comment has been removed by the author.

  68. @JoeKa

    Thanks, mate. It's gratifying to know someone is actually reading my posts. :)

  69. @G
    You're completely right when you say, "when a clear trend has been established".

    Long term the trend is unquestionably up. That doesn't keep you from losing 1/3 of your money in the short term.

    But we've been through a consolidation and I think we are moving out. That's why I was giving Pailin a little grief about shorting here. I think of a trending market like an elevator moving up and down but mostly up. You can get off on the 12th floor because you think the elevator is going down to the 11th floor. If you successfully switch elevators while the other one is going down you can really "get ahead". The problem comes in when you geuss wrong and the one you get off keeps going up and then you have to wait for the next elevator to hop on or scramble up the stairs to try to catch up.

    Pailin expressed this perfectly just now, "Was looking to rebuy around 1480-1490 and missed out during last dip playing with XAG. Then it ran away from me completely and I haven't been in since."

    Lord knows I've made thins mistake many many times. This time I'm planted on the elevator unless we violate the chart.

  70. @uptofreedom
    By "never burned" I meant they never crimp my style to the point that I quit or whatever. Burned to me means take a massive hit. Yes, there's always lessons learned on small mistakes and technique is tightened. The first I learned was to not let a small mistake become a big mistake!

    Early ast night, was short XAG at 35.05, a carryover from during the day. It started not feeling right, covered at 34.90. Did not want to go to sleep on it, even though the trade hand't "matured". That was a lesson I learned on a losing trade (or two :), you play what the market gives you, not the other way around. Or you lose. My mistake last night was not taking a small spec long too in case of overnight bump. So I missed running 34.90-present. Sigh. And that's why I carry low dca core always.

  71. @kiwi

    I think that i am going to keep it instead of trying to make a few extra bucks. Then when we get to that 42 or 43 i may get some zsl for the ride back down.

  72. @Pailin

    Trader Dan on SAT regarding COT. Says net shorts at lowest since 5/2009, net longs lowest since 3/2010.

  73. @LevelHeaded
    The swing trade right now is positive for both metals. Bad idea to short either for a while. Better to wait for buys to come to you..learned that from atlee.

    Understand that on Friday while looking away from XAU to play XAG, I actually made about 15x more on XAG than I would have if I'd bought/held XAU from 1490 (as a limit buy) to 1515 (where I would have sold anyway). I pretty much only use market orders during NY day action, want to be very nimble and not locked into a trade originally planned when conditions were different. Given the choice, I'll ignore XAU to play XAG because of the greater volatility and thus greater short term gains. Most important, I wanted to be flat going into weekend and I was, so mission accomplished. Hope that makes sense?

  74. My question as a newbie to this board is will there be another drive by shooting/attack on silver once it get's close to $50 again or in the mid-40s. Or will they let it go up to $60 next time before the next attack. Would it be too obvious for them to attack at $50, or do they really care. I'm a huge believer in PMs since silver was $8 and Gold $400. If one could only predict.

  75. The fonze, I am having trouble deciphering what this news means as I am inept in all the trading jargon.

    From what I understand are they saying that there are large holders of paper silver on the LME. One of which is JPM. And that they have been manipulating the market on the LME and now they are launching an investigation? And this spells trouble for JPM as they are guilty of manipulating silver in US and london markets?

    Is that right?

  76. @oldNavy
    Yep, saw that myself over the weekend. Very bullish for the longer run. I'm still worried about what the hedgies can do to us though. They've only rolled back to March 2011 levels. They are the reason I'm not buying into 36s right now. I need to see what COT looks like for today when it's released later this week. I don't need the lowest price to get back in with serious money. I need a safer price though.

  77. By wait for the next elevator I meant wait for the next good entry point.

    By scramble up the stairs I meant try to make some money shorting so you can get back the profits you feel like you "should have had" if you had just held.

    MAybe this explanation wasn't necessary. I've been here before many times and it sucks.

  78. @Pailin
    Got it. Wish you the best.

  79. @ Thought Regarding

    When Trinity B commented about the "nice surprise during mid-day London hours," this could fall into it...

    When Trinity B Said "We are all blythe masters,"

    Could this be because the real manipulator of silver and gold is not JP Morgan to profit but instead the Western Banking Cabal... (what I thought anyways, as JP morgan is just a front company for the real players). And, the Western Banking Cabal issues our currencies that we all use in the system and even pay taxes back to our fraudulent true manipulative power structure of the world.

    When saying "I am blythe masters," it could be a reference to the fact that each and every single person here is actually just as responsible for what is going on as Blythe Masters. Not in a direct way, but so in the fact that it is the system's users empower the system without ever knowing it...

    We are dependent on the beast, and we think that it is failing... it is not failing, it is moving into a different mode. Interesting how we are back at 36.4 just like old times...

  80. I may owe Trinity B a nice dinner. Looks like silver may close up at least $1.25.

  81. Coming up on the middle BB of the 5 min chart, might see some movement from there.

    Most of the other charts are still showing a bit rich, so we might see some down movement.

    Looking for a buy point. Hoping for sub 36.

  82. @LevelHeaded
    Oh yes, terrible idea to try to make up for could/should/woulda with even more trading. Can't have emotions running your market order finger :)
    Better to let the dust settle and reevaluate then. That's where I'm at right now, and I never feel all that bad due to my long core. My shorts generally make sense because they are always set up as hedges if nothing else against the core long.

    I still have a real fear of summer deflation ala 2008. As such I'm willing to forgoe being too long (both core and trading acct) and losing extra gains to getting hammered on a 25%+ dip to 28 even 24. That always seems to happen when you're overweight and the gains look to be blue sky all the way. Kind of like how 48/49 silver felt three weeks ago :)
    I'd rather have the extra dry powder ready to buy in there instead of hating the world and my own greed.

    Debt ceiling, BS 2 party policking, and QE3 have me greatly concerned for holding anything trading related overnight or over weekend. We need some resolution on that stuff before we get into the ridiculousness of the next presidential election run :)

  83. @Scott
    Anyway, that's pretty deep man.

  84. I can't shake it....there's just something very eery about Netanyahu's addressing Congress right now. It's the event amidst all the current events that just seems so eery to me. Why do I always have this feeling that something big and world altering is just around the corner?

    On a lighter not, Congress seems to be very supportive of him.


  85. SLV

    eCONomics is hard.

  86. This comment has been removed by the author.

  87. This comment has been removed by the author.

  88. @Tim

    Well it just means that people are starting to figure out the scam. This is bringing presure on the people running the scam. If there is a shortage of the metal price must go up. People are realizing that if greece tanks they can't withdraw money from greek banks. Also British banks are on the hook.

    Historically when PM's are stored in a vault, the vault owner first gains secrecy, then writes receipts for metals in the vault it does not own. Eventually people figure this out and panic. We are coming up on this point in the UK.

    here is a little cartoon that nicely summarizes what is happening. The most important part of it is selling what is not yours. Fancy schmancy word for this is counter party risk. You could also call it trusting a liar.

    Presenting.... The American Dream!


  89. I'm pretty sure this is irrellevant, but my platform CMC-Markets. Its more of a financial betting system rather than outright trading and investing tbh. I just got a mail from them where they're hiking margains on ALL commodities starting 29 May. Silver up to 8% from 1%(!). Gold up to 3% from 1%. Crude up to 5% from 1%.

    I dont think the margain-calls of investors per se will lead to a selloff as they're not directly exposed to the market, but i reckon CMC-markets hedge their investors picks, so them as a fund might do some selling. How big actors they are, i got no idea. Take it for what its worth.

  90. @Pailin - I'm getting better with the whole "letting buys come to you"... Placed a buy order for AGQ@176.5 after lightening up @184.3

    176ish my guestimate where AGQ will be if silver dips to 35.5. (silver day high of 36.4 to 35.5 is -2.5%. 2.5%x2=5%. AGQ high of 185.5x.95 = 176.225) Might fire a bullet manually at some point, but I've had the most success by identifying a target like this and just letting it happen...

    Now I'm just "hoping" for 35.5. Feels dirty...

  91. FYI re food storage:

    You will likely encounter long lead times for delivery of bulk foods. I ordered several types of beans, wheat and rice in 25-lb lots in early April. Delivery time was 6 weeks at the time of offer. Beans are now promised for June 29; Durham Wheat for August 15.

  92. Whatever happened to the poster named "evil". Haven't seen anything from him since Turd asked him to contact him directly.....

  93. No way we break 36.4 without retesting 36 and probably in the 35s somewhere. I think 36.4 is the number they want for tomorrow's option expiration. I then think it will take off on Thursday and/or Friday. Something along the lines of what happened last expiration month (for silver but it could be the new trend with low comex registered metals). However, the two massive days were followed by a smash due to forced liquidations (margins). Will be interesting in the next week, that is for sure. Especially with the S&P not participating in dollar weakness. New policy seems imminent, but I agree with LaMachina... I always feel like something big is coming.


    This plan is already scripted... do not think that any of this is spontaneously occuring imo... this is a carefully orchestrated plan, if we wise up to it we can profit from it... at least with the S&P Numbers and the gold/silver comex price.

  94. We are past the London fix:


    I'm ready for more fireworks.

  95. What does London gold fixing mean?

  96. I like the look of this action. Looking at the charts we might get to around 35.80 and that is just fine by me.

    Whether we test 36.40 again today I kinda doubt but with the Bond auctions at 1PM we might get some funk action there.

  97. Rules for Reportable Bullion & Cash Transactions or Lack Thereof


  98. What does London gold fixing mean?


    Level is this a serious question? or are you trolling for points?

  99. @shill

    Don't you remember from Elementary School there are no dumb questions? You a quite a sensitive soul.

    Never mind I'll go google it or wiki it.

  100. Turd,
    The expectation of 36.50$ to fall smells like the 50$ level expectation which did not happen.
    1) Why is it that you think it will go through that and above 40$,
    2) If it does not, then how low will it go.

    Anyone else can chime in too.

  101. Don't you remember from Elementary School there are no dumb questions? You a quite a sensitive soul.

    Never mind I'll go google it or wiki it.


    No! I just know a trolling question when I see one. This is a PM board, and it is discussed here daily ad nauseum.

  102. @shill
    You know nothing. When was the last time a difinition was provided? Don't bother answering, it's never or not for a long time.

    That was an honest question. Posters on this board use the word "troll" more than the word "the".

    The constant motive questioning is so frustrating.

  103. @Level.........yes there are dumb questions.
    Not making a comment about your question just making a comment about the myth that there are no dumb questions. Yet another attempt by "progressives" to excuse idiotic behavior and vilify productive people who don't have time to suffer idiots.

  104. In case you're wondering...

    WTI has failed $100...again...so its Elmo
    EURUSD is now failed 1.41...so its Elmo
    Corn...major Elmo
    Wheat...major Elmo

    ...so now Au and Ag are catching up on some Elmo too.

    Did I get that Elmo thing right Shill?? :)

  105. Mr. Turd:
    Thanks a lot for your very informative post. Unfortunately I don't have the minimum required capital to open an options account, therefore, I am using a forex broker to trade precious metals, with as small leverage as possible to minimize that risk.

    Do you see Silver re-testing $35 during this week or even dropping below that level?
    Also, where do you see Gold going in that case, $1495?

  106. @uptofreedom

    Is that a trolling question?

    Everyone knows it's a red puppet from sesame street.

  107. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Px3nq9CCfI4/TNpc5kPxl7I/AAAAAAAAALo/F67y1qyo4po/s400/elmo.gif

    Your honor, here I present EXHIBIT A, a certain character named ELMO.

    I draw your attention to his spectacular RED fur.

    Yes your honor, my underwear is that same exact color.

    I rest my case.

    word ver: gymem

  108. Silver hit 35.80 as I prognosticated. The question is, where does it go from here?

    15 minute chart shows that we might be headed down to 35.60.

  109. 35.6 is more like it, RSI hasnt even hit 20 yet

  110. Joe don't forget Kermit :) Gold is Kermit as is Silver.

  111. I prognosticate more ELMO !

    word ver: comicity

  112. My guess is that we end up hanging around 35.50 towards the end of the day. Then overnight will do what overnight does (and I have no idea - either flat or they re-test 36.50?) I think we're still owed a waterfall, one bigger than we've seen so far, so maybe it's reserved for tomorrow beginning 4am?

    I'm staying flat for now, not buying into this rally.

  113. Alan Greenspan Admits To Big Ponzi Scheme


  114. More nonsense on the way:

    C&P from article
    "A California preacher who foretold of the world's end only to see the appointed day pass with no extraordinarily cataclysmic event has revised his apocalyptic prophecy, saying he was off by five months and the Earth actually will be obliterated on Oct. 21."

    What a jerk.

  115. @JoeKa.. where there's an Elmo, there's a Kermit waiting to appear..

    Maybe BTFE?

  116. All said though Pailin, that was a nice rally. :)

    Ok, I'm off to bed. Night all!

    Wishing one and all Kermit dreams (when its your turn!) and a rainbow pot of Gold.

  117. This episode of JoeKa & Shill is brought to you by the letter Y and the number 2.

  118. @Level

    There are NO dumb questions. ;)

    But, this is what you want For Gold :- http://www.goldfixing.com/GF1.html

    For Silver :-

  119. oldNavy said...

    This episode of JoeKa & Shill is brought to you by the letter Y and the number 2.


    Navy you forgot the AH AH AH AH...LOL!

  120. I can't post using Chrome. Now using Firefox. What's wrong with Chrome? By the way glad bought @35. Closed @36. We need enough money for summer vacation. I'll be shorting end of June. Hope you all survived Monday massacre.

  121. Bad trade on corn. Needed more patience.

  122. Shill

    It wasn't that funny (for LOL), I know, but still intended in good humor. :)

  123. @G

    Thanks. That process sure seems archaic.

    Gold just held 1520.3 which was the 10MA on the 120 minute chart. This could hold.

    If that doesn't hold 1516-1517 is the 20MA on the 120 minute chart and will also close the gap on GLD from this morning.

  124. Well looks like another boring afternoon. Good time to catch up on some doom reading.

    All green for me today so far, but I have an eerie feeling of a fat finger flash crash in the not to distant future.

  125. Turd's web rank predicts the silver price :)


  126. Shill

    I learned a new term this AM, "splash crash". Even scarier than flash crash.


  127. Fed's Duke says costly gasoline hurting consumers


    FED's are out in force.

  128. OK, COMEX close fun is over. Let's see if the miners return to their highs. I bought more NGD for 9.35 after selling at 9.60.

    This is a good day for trading.

  129. I know many here dismiss the Trinity B poster but this has been the best day for silver in a while and TB did post something to that effect yesterday.

    Just sayin'.

  130. @silver
    Sounds like you are trying to justify the $350 dinner you owe her. Buy a nice bottle of wine to get her talking.

  131. meh, the pitch wasn't fat enough, didn't swing... :/ mebbe next time.

    another minor lesson in this: I need to stop trying to catch "the bottom". Pick a midpoint on the way down to start firing bullets...

  132. http://store.greatpanther.com/

    WOW - GPL store is selling silver again - here is the KICKER -

    "The current Price of Silver is US$40.80/oz"

    Do they know something we do not????

  133. Art,

    Don't know how bad you're hurting on CORN today, but what is a good entry point? I have a bid in at 44.03. I don't know this market well.

  134. Scott,

    Don't look now, but RVM's turned green. I'm still pissed I didn't get my lowball bid filled pre-market. Revett's looking strong here.

  135. Still need to tack on another $0.15-$0.20 to get to the magic number although I'm fairly certain that she'd prefer to remain anonymous regardless of what I'm offering. I would indeed buy a nice bottle but like Vegas, what happens at dinner stays at dinner. I'm good that way.

  136. How likely is there we'll see a double top at 36.5, then pullback to the 35.5 area? Or will it then go lower still?

  137. Thoughts on GPL anyone? This news can't be good (from Yahoo):

    "GREAT PANTHER SILVER LIMITED (TSX:GPR - News)(AMEX:GPL - News) (the "Company") has decided to postpone the NI 43-101 compliant mineral resource estimate for the San Ignacio Mine property, Guanajuato, pending further drilling. Diamond drilling has continued at San Ignacio, where silver-gold mineralization was intersected and results announced for the first 8 holes (see news releases dated October 28, November 15, December 21, 2010 and March 10, 2011). As drilling continued and results were compiled, steps were taken to prepare an internal NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate. This involved a Quality Assurance ("QA") procedure that was even more stringent than the normal process of inserting standards, blanks and duplicates into the drill core sample sequence. Under the new procedure, drill core from select samples was quartered and assayed to compare to the original results and, during this process, it was observed that there was no consistent correlation between the original and check assays."

  138. Considering that 35.5 is the target I had in mind, I'd say not bloody likely... :/

  139. Eric #1, Kirkland is up on this news:


    Meanwhile, my guys Pelangio Exploration announce a nice new find on the Manfo property today (14gpt over 7 meters), and is up a whopping 2 cents. That's ok, I'm accumulating at these weak prices while it flies under the radar. All they're doing is growing and proving up their Au reserve categories. Just a matter of time. Evidently lots of time :-)


  140. CFTC charges 3 firms with oil price manipulation


    More small frys,but its a step foward. Now time for the fat cats heads to roll.

  141. NGD is my high gainer today. That dip proved buyable indeed. NGD is Atlee's pick. Read the last earnings statement, you'll see why. And you've got to love the mine locations--all safe from Hugos and their ilk.

  142. Have too many foreclosed properties?

    Why not give them away?

    That's what Bank of America plans to do with as many as 150 vacant and abandoned properties in and around Chicago through a new "collaboration" with the city that's intended to address the problem of abandoned properties.

    "Unfortunately," BofA said in a statement, "many homeowners faced with unemployment, underemployment and other economic hardships have transitioned to alternative housing situations, and in many cases, have walked away from their homes, leaving behind vacant and deteriorating properties that can cause neighborhood blight."


  143. RockinJohnny - First Majestic has gone to fixed price bullion sales, too. Right now it's $38.50. Get on it!

    No affiliation, just sayin: http://www.store.firstmajestic.com/

  144. I almost picked up some NGD yesterday but I held off too long and now it's out of my buy range. I'm hoping to pick up some NGD at 8.75 or 9 and some TRE at 6.75, but both may not track back that low for a while.

  145. SSK

    I saw that news this morning. My feeling is that this kind of thing is never ever good. But at the time I didn't do all my homework to see just how bad it is.

    Did a little checking right now. The property in question is a short drive from GPL's main mine, and considered a satellite property. It is also nearly surrounded by one of EXK's main mines. Clearly good ground, and I think GPL was counting on it for some future production growth, but this does throw a wrench in the works.

    Did not buy or sell any GPL on this news. It may yet turn out to be just fine, etc, but no denying I have a queezy feeling in my gut about it.

  146. So, how crazy is it to want to quit your job and just be a trader?

    Is it as crazy as it sounds when I say it out loud, or is it as sane as it sounds in my head?

    I've been able to follow the charts and while I didn't jump in after getting out at 36.30, I am continously recognizing the signs that would have resulted in profit if I had acted on them.

    Does anyone here do this for their main income stream or is it more of a lucrative yet stressful hobby?

  147. Turd, I have a Lind-Waldock account and actually work with Tony Klancic myself. I will admit to never having taken physical delivery in the account, however (until this month).

    I must ask: How can these custodians be trusted?

    Furthermore, holding metal in a depository isn't the same thing as having ACCESS to metal. I feel as if I need to send that metal to a mint to have them made into rounds which then get sent back to me to a secure facility of my choosing where I have access. It seems like an awful amount of work (not that I'm averse to work). The point here is that holding bars in a depository with only a statement providing me with warm fuzzies isn't the way to go either.

    Any thoughts you might have (or anyone else with understanding of these matters) would be highly valued.


  148. ewc58

    Yes, I saw that Kirkland news. Not sure what market expectations were for April production, but it blew away MY expectations. I'm really loving Kirkland lately. Still can't get over that news release from May 4th.

    BTW, went to a local co-op today and downed a double shot of fresh squeezed wheatgrass juice. Feeling like I can leap tall buildings in a single bound right now. Bought a bottle of Bragg's Apple Cider Vinegar too. How do you take yours and what does it do for you?

  149. Tinka is up 27% today....anyone seen any news?

  150. Krauser
    Keep your day job, buddy.

  151. So is Turd invested or not? What you holding my man?

  152. @krauser

    I do it full time. I'm not sure I'd recommend quiting your job for it but it has worked out for me. My last paycheck was over 12 months ago.

    I got off to a great start, my wife is 100% supportive and believes in me even more than I do, I love trading, I have a very high risk tolerance, I've been trading for 10+ years so I made a lot of learning mistakes while I had a W2. All of these things were instrumental to succeding.

    Not sure what else to say. It's not easy but I have never been happier and I don't have to worry about losing $10K while I'm in a meeting.

  153. Having said that, Eric #1 is right.

  154. Krauser, you must consider the intangible pressure to perform when you make anything your profession. Investing would go from a hobby to a job. Maybe you have the right temperment for it but you need to be ruthlessly honest with yourself if you can make wise decisions when under extreme circumstances.

    Also, what is your starting capital? Rhetorical of course, but what kind of return percentages do you need from your captial to make a living? A few percent or double digits? Just be careful of expectations if they fail to materialize. That's when bad decisions are made.

  155. trollercoaster - respect Turd's authoritie!

  156. who hit the pause in silver market? Scrrew YOU hippie

  157. krauser: You can never predict the future, but you can always control your risk. If you have an appetite for risk, and can absorb the costs of making mistakes -- and ensuring that those mistakes aren't financially fatal -- then it's worth a shot.

    Treat it like a BUSINESS with utmost seriousness, impose restrictions on yourself, maintain control, treat the market as you would a reservoir -- don't wade in with a 55-gallon drum, but rather use a coffee cup. Small and consistent gains over long periods of time is the way to go. Chasing fantastic and lofty gains is one way to ruin. I've traded for 19 years now (metals for past four) and cannot see myself doing anything differently.

    I will say this: The metals markets make Las Vegas look like a daycare center.

  158. Question: on jim sinclairs web site everyone refers to one anther as CIGA's.
    Does anyone know what this means?

  159. Krauser,

    Listen to Tanker. Good advice. Set things up with a good accountant too. Run it through a business. If you can do freelance on the side, do it.

    Now, let's watch NGD break 9.60 on the way to . . . . looking at the chart, there's nothing in the way before 10. And one hell of a gap to fill going on up.

  160. CIGA = Citizens in Gold Alligned. I think. It's the "A" that is iffy.

  161. Approaching the three o'clock hour. Also known as the scalping hour . . .

  162. For once I'm actually looking forward to it.

    Though I don't think I am up for holding overnight today.

    Now that I am finally out of my trade with some profits, I think I will take the opportunity to get in at a good time tomorrow and not have to be stressed out tonight.

  163. CIGA
    Comrades In Golden Arms, I think. It's funky.

  164. Hot off the KWN press:

    "Embry - Silver Market Extraordinarily Tight, Look for $125"


  165. TRE on a breakout. Sweet. Loving this action.

  166. I would definetly advise foreigners to steer clear of Switzerland regarding anything anything of a financial nature. From my own personal experience the integrity of the financial institutions in Switzerland is severly lacking. They can choose if they want to be regulated by the goverment or not. Even if you were to find one that was regulated by the Swiss goverment that you think you may have confidence in, there is nothing to prevent them from spinning off a different firm and choosing not to have this other firm goverment regulated. Then they would place the accounts of foreigners in this other self regulated firm. This basicly amounts to some type of bait and switch scam, which seems to be an acceptable business practice in Switzerland. This is exactly what happened to me.

  167. @SSK,

    Got stopped out with a small loss and got my feelings hurt. I would trade CORN etf using July corn futures for reference. (CORN consists of several contract months I believe)

    Todays 7.31 trade is right at the first fib retracement off the last rally(6.59 to 7.75).
    This should hold, but if it doesn't, 7.17 is the 50% retracement, and would be the next downside target.

    Caution: This market will be as volatile as silver.

  168. What seems to be the issue driving the POSX lower? I am looking at the netdania chart station. I have four charts up: silver spot (US), gold spot, POSX, and Dow Jones Industrials, all five minute charts, last 48 hours.

    If the Greek bonds are sure to default, then why is the POSX dropping?

    Silver is nice and stable for now at $36 or so, gold is trending nice at $1,524, Dow Jones is at 12,392. So why is POSX at 75.84 and dropping?

    Many thanks for the insights.

  169. Damn! That Tinka which SGS is always harping about went up 23%.

    I only have a very small position because I swapped almost all of my miners for silver a couple weeks ago. I just kept a few penny stocks that are difficult to trade.

  170. @Art

    Should I buy a few ears on the way home? What's the premium over the spot price? Should I bury them in the backyard for safekeeping?

    (Jus' Kiddin :-)

  171. Turd, could you, or someone else give an explanation for calculations of the odds for the choice of options? It is all a matter of risk/reward of course, but price of options is not so transparant, as to determine the optimum choice for ones strategy.

    Turd, do you call AUG calls long term options?

  172. G-- thanks for taking the time to post the links on silver/gold fixing...unlike some people here who think people are trolls for asking, many of us are newbies and have never heard the terms. We try to gleen what it means through conversations here but are often left guessing. Just because people ask a question that all you professionals have talked/heard about "ad nauseum" does not mean that we are trolls. Some of us are newbies and some of us have just arrived- please try to remember that because sometimes your reactions discourage those of us learning from asking new questions because we know we are going to get slammed. Thanks!

  173. MisesFan said...

    Tinka is up 27% today....anyone seen any news?
    May 24, 2011 2:30 PM



  174. SO glad I didn't hit the "sell" button on my AGQ...but what's driving this?

  175. kiwi,
    I've heard it referred to as "protein gold".
    It may be this year.
    Premiums getting higher!(really)
    Guys I'm out of here for today.

    Thanks for the PM advice and comments everyone.

  176. Less of a pop than i'd imagine. How long will we linger post 36.5-area you reckon?

  177. Yowza. This is what I get for waiting to get back in.

    We'll see what tomorrow brings I guess.

    First official test of 36.50 and it blew through it.

    Turd sure called it. Now for a pull back and retest so i can get some more fiat.

  178. @kiwi

    Right there with you! Whew. I can't figure it out either. If anything i thought we would have sold off some gains before the market closed

  179. Titus,
    Have you heard any news on TINKA? I have shares and love the move, but cannot figure out why.

  180. Oh, and what are the odds that Turd is re-writing some paragraphs from his latest update as we speak? I'm sure there are a lot of "when"s and "if"s that got changed to "now that we've". :D

  181. i think they are trying to get a close over 36.50

  182. Just for the Record, Pailin wrote the following this morning ...Little more spike up into 9:25, then "some" selloff from NYSE to near 10am, then houses report (negative), fast waterfall till about noon, then burst run to 36 and slow grind back and forth to 36.50/37.50 by later tomorrow?

  183. SLV on a break out! EXK as well..go team!

  184. tankerfirstofficer: It sounds like The Golden State Mint can meet your needs. They offer a Bullion Conversion Program. Total cost per ounce of $0.90 in 1,000 oz or more quantity (smaller quantities slightly more); including fully insured shipping of the newly-minted Silver Rounds back to you. Upon delivery, they will accept your 10 ounce, 100 ounce, and 1,000 ounce silver bars, whether new or heavily tarnished, and convert the bars into your choice of beautiful Incuse Indian or Buffalo Silver Rounds (or both). They will then ship the newly-minted Silver Rounds back to you, fully insured, in tubes of 20x coins each in industry-standard 500x count boxes. The owner is Jim Pavlakos. I am not affiliated with them.


  185. According to Kid dynamite site... harvey spouts nonsense on a DAILY basis. usually, most of what he writes as his interpretations about SLV/GLD is factually incorrect. Would you like some examples? of course you would - he has now started talking about SLV's NAV. He is likely to get this wrong every single day, because he doesn't understand what SLV's NAV is (really, he doesn't understand ANYTHING about SLV, which is extremely problematic for someone who wants to analyze the silver market) - he thinks that SLV = 1 ounce of silver. it doesn't. it's slightly less that one ounce (they sell silver to pay expenses), and the data is all on SLV's public website. I did a post on this, if you're interested:


    Another: he repeats the nonsense - on a daily basis - that the Bank of England owns the gold in GLD and can recall it at any time. It's just factually incorrect - it's like saying that if you own allocated bars at BullionVault, that the Bank of England can just recall them from you. False.

  186. Rest of market is hardly moving and silver is spiking. Major Short covering?

  187. @Sevin

    I was itching to sell at the second peak, as you did, I really thought it would drop thru the floor after that, but I keep reminding myself of that $42 Turd's Top goal, and the nice pile of $$ waiting at that point.... I'm gonna have to find something else to daytrade, maybe Art's CORN, so I leave my AGQ alone.... ;-)