Friday, May 20, 2011

Friday Wrap-Up

OK, admit it now. How many of you, at 10:00 EDT and gold at 1488 thought ole Turd was plum crazy with his "1515 by later today or Monday" statement? How many of you were ready to give up on Turd's Bottom #2, also? Faith. We must have faith. The truth is on our side and the truth always wins. (The most notable exceptions being "I did not have sexual relations with that woman" and the OJ trial.)

As we look to wrap up this really wild and significant week, let's begin with a summary of my trading today.
I sold: 2 of my 4 July $7.50 corn calls and my 2 June $1500 gold calls.
I bought: 1 August $1550 gold call, 1 July $40 silver call and 1 July $102 crude call.

For charts, let's start with our two nominations for best supporting actor: copper and crude.
Ole DrC looks great. On this 12-hour chart, you can clearly see a reverse head-and-shoulder bottom. Copper then closed the week above the critical 410 level that had acted as support and then resistance. Closing back above 410 returns it to the support category and copper is now poised to run back toward 420-25. Longtime Turdwatchers know that a recovering copper price will certainly add resilience and excitement to the bid for the PMs.

Now take a look at crude. At this point, it looks like the only thing that can drive crude below 96 would be if those lunatics that are predicting the 2nd Coming for tomorrow are proven correct. Outside of that, the 96 level looks to be about as strong of chart support as your ever going to see. Note that you don't just have rounding bottoms at 96, either. You have sharp, quick reversals off of that level, particularly today. I printed this chart and immediately called Lind-Waldock and bought that July $102 call I mentioned above. It clearly looks like it will go thru 101.50 early next week and, from there, it should move rapidly back to 105.

Gold is still proving to be the champ in the PM arena. For now, silver is still to psychologically damaged to mount a major, sustainable advance. Give it another week or so. Gold, though, looks terrific! $1515 may continue to offer resistance into early next week but, once it falls, gold will scoot toward $1525. It will likely pause there and re-group for a day or two between 1525 and 1515. However, it should then resume its recovery and trade toward 1540-45 by the end of this month.
Lastly, here is silver. The fact that it turned on a dime this morning near $34 and that it couldn't muster additional downside momentum is just another clue that the bottom of this manufactured "correction" is now in. It, too, will dilly-dally and fiddle around a while longer between 34.50 and 36.50 but, once it clears 36.50, shorts will be forced to cover while new buyers rush in. It will spring from 36.50 toward 39 in very short order. I expect this to also happen by the end of May.

Well, that's it. I hope you all have a relaxing and wonderful weekend.
Thanks again for making this the absolute best PM blog on the face of the earth! TF

p.s. A nice, tidy little stack of these came via Fedex today. I was able to purchase them directly out of the PayPal account you into which you all have donated money. I own some GPL stock, too. What a deal!!


  1. dam silver barely hanging on to 35 at the moment!!! keeping the faith, thanks Turd.

  2. turd, thanks have a great weekend. watch the gdx...lookin good for monday...

  3. It really is the best PM blog on the planet. Thanks, Turd.

    I'm watching DrC like a hawk at the moment. I don't trade it, but most of my PM decisions are based on it for the time being.

  4. Latest COT says EE covered a whopping 7000 contracts. Can you say bullish setup?

  5. Turd, before you go today:

    Thanks again for yesterday's 2011 Roadmap. That thing was a Turd de Force!

    Have fun with the Fam, you sure earned it.

    Best to all!
    Eddie Argento

  6. I didn't think you were crazy. I was just hoping to buy 1485, and never got it! Crap on a cracker. :(

  7. Fading . . . .

    Pedro, I'm telling ya, birtherism is so so yesterday. Come on man, get with a new one. Make First Lady gorilla jokes or something clever like that.

    Anyway, Turd, you're the man. Appreciate all your insight.

  8. NGD just lost its juice. GDX up a measly quarter. Same old pattern we've seen for months, except this time around it's gold in the lead and silver lagging. Gold up or silver down, it doesn't matter. The miners still founder.

  9. Is there some place online where I can pick up the prices of options ( puts & calls ) on gold and silver?

  10. @Eric#1
    Bro, I'm feeling your pain. I held my XAU overnight bought yesterday at 1490, sold top of early morning today at 1503, then had a re-buy in for 1490 again (not stupid enough to short it down, that's a sucker's game in XAU :)
    Anyway, when everything was dumping, I was too busy working market orders on XAG to really play with XAU, but I backed my buy order off from 1490 to 1480, thinking it must be getting punished just as hard...WRONG. It held so much better, and of course it would have been great to ride it up to 1515. But there's always next week...

  11. Everyone's best friend Barney Frank now saying U.S. default likely:

  12. Well Turd, that makes me feel a bit better.

    Silver 39 by the end of May? That is quite the call. That's only 5 trading days, isn't it?

    If you are correct, I'll be quite happy as my Jun 35 calls will be the lucrative plays I had hoped them to be. The last few days they have been causing me mucho stress. Still new to this PM Options playground and it is quite the experience. Missed out on big gains today by not keeping my powder dry, just like you had advised.

    If it can break 35.50 during NYSE trading hours, I might have a bit more belieft in 39 by 5/31. The way this week went, I would be more apt to think that 36.50 would be much more likely.

  13. The way miners are traded at closing minutes, seems a raid is on the way.

  14. The miners still founder.

    That is good. It means the miners are low priced and great bargains. have some patience. I guarantee there will be a huge bubble in miners. Hopefully not for a very long time. the longer this bull market runs the better. I want it to go up steady and slow. not those parabolic curves like in silver.

    I like to think of the miners like options. buy a call that has no ending date. No time premium. Believe me they are bargains. And they will eventually pay off big time.

  15. SSK,

    You know the funny thing is given all the unconstitutional acts afforded upon US citizens, such as the Fed, income taxes, warrant-less searches, the TSA, I think we all get the picture, Obama being president should be the lowest priority! After all, they "the presidents " are just pitchmen!

  16. Sockeye,

    Interesting perspective. I've been waiting seven years for the miners to reflect the underlying metals. That's one helluva put!

    Look at HL, EGO, AUY, HMY, ABX, GG, and on and on. They all trade lower than in the summer 2008. Back when gold was hundreds of dollars off today's price.

    But you are right. Patience is needed here.

  17. @SSK - howdy to a fellow hoosier! I reside in Bloomington

  18. Thank you Turd Ferguson!

    Thank YOU for creating this AWESOME Blog for all of us =]
    We LOVE you man!!!

    (I'm gonna go click some adds now)

  19. TF, thanks for sharing your insight! I'm a noob that did research before buying in or commenting. Your sight has been a great lighthouse to weed through some of what's out there.

  20. Krauser, you're right. That is only six trading days. Maybe I should have said early June? Lets make it $39 before 6/3.

  21. ChickenDinner

    Blarney Frank ... loved the pic there ... comb over with a bozo nose

  22. SSK,

    Sorry for the rude comment. My emotions got the better of me.

    Here's what I want to say about this subject (and that will be it)... Turd's blog is about precious metals and the markets, but I believe it's also about preparing us for the tough times ahead. That's the bigger picture here.

    Well, that is the same with the so called "birther" issue. It's not about race or hate; it's purely a legal issue: whether or not a person is eligible to the president according to our Constitution and laws. The people who are spending countless hours in court, research, writing on this topic do it not because they have an agenda. They do it because the bigger issue is whether we want to live in a country where the rule of law still stands for something.

    I get it; we come here, read each others' comments and try to use the information to make money in the markets to convert into gold/silver. I'm doing the same thing. But what does it matter if I have 500 oz of gold if I live in a country where the government does not respect the law? What's the point in trying to survive financial doom if the rule of law no longer stands here?

    Why do people here give the middle finger to the EE and the financial MSM, then turn right around and believe the same MSM on other matters? It makes no sense to me. Really, either do some serious research into it or please don't parrot for the MSM's personal attacks. You're falling for their propaganda, similar to MOPE on the financial side.

    So my frustration is that there are people out there who are putting their reputation and livelihood on the line to protect what we have (ie to help us), only to have people like you denounce their efforts as pointless.

    And that is all I will say about that. Again, my apologies and you have a good weekend too.

  23. Lowest net short position by the EE since spring of 09, with silver at around 13$.

    I'm all in, and because noone of you currently supports that notion, I'll rub it in extra the coming months when I'll be making monumental gains and most of you will be on the sidelines.

    Oh and Turd, good job calling that bottom.

  24. Mises,

    Best food in the Midwest is at Farm Restaurant in Bloomington. Love that place. Have we not had the most contemptible weather in Hoosier history? So freaking wet and cloudy. I straddle the Ohio border. Farmers are screwed this year in my parts. Still haven't seen the corn go in.

    Man did anyone see the action at close for NGD? Shameless. I put in a buy at 9.34 in AH and it filled. Already back in the 9.40's.

  25. Turd,

    What's you comment on July 11, 102.50 crude calls?

    Bid on July 11, 102.00 is 2.60 and 102.50 is 1.49.

  26. WTFTF? You forgot the most meaningful exception:

    "We will not monetize the debt."

  27. Since I had the last post on the prior thread, I'll re-post although I'm not trying to start a debate, just pointing something out regarding the whole birther thing.

    I got an email explaining how Obama's "birth certificate" shows that his father, who was 25 years old at the time of his birth in 1961, was born in Kenya.

    That would mean Obama's dad was born in Kenya around 1936.

    Why I found this worthy of posting is that Kenya didn't exist until 1963.

    I did check the image of the BC as well as a few sites to verify when Kenya first came to exist and the dates match.

    Something to chew on for the weekend.

  28. SSK,

    You ever get to the Derby? Use to hang out on the Green river and do Paloi Peaks :) and Clarksville and New Albany girls, back in the day, lol

  29. Chin,

    would love to say alot more about Bunny but will keep my comments under wraps - except his actions have greatly contributed to PM bullishness!

  30. Pedro,

    Apology accepted. We live in angry times. And believe me, I should know. I'm one angry dude of late.

    Have a good weekend all.

  31. Malcom,

    Never been. But I'd like to do some New Albany girls myself!

  32. Heard that an 8.4 quake hit a little while ago right off the coast of Libya near Tripoli. Will be interesting to see if it causes any fluctuations in crude price and everything else.
    Anyone else have anything on it yet?

  33. @SSK - Farm is great! I have a couple of other joints that I prefer a little more....but you have to love Farm's concept. As LOCAL as possible!

    The weather has been miserable. Up until the last week or so, I don't think the farmers could have even got their tractors into their fields.


  34. Bob Chapman has been talking about threats to 401K/IRA for the past 10 mins. Wow great stuff:

    later, hear it archived at:

  35. @malcolm - I hit Paoli Peaks this year.....first time in over a decade. I moved back to IN, after 8 years in CO, last August......gotta get the snowboarding fix somehow.

    Farm the gnar!

  36. Good example today of how options expiry screws things up.

    Seemed mighty strange to me the S&P was holding up so well, always around 1340 no matter what the news.

    GPS (the GAP) down 17% and for all the reasons Bernanke doesn't want to hear about.

    GS taking a shit kicking. GS is a longtime bellweather too.

    DXY moved up very strongly from 75.35 to 75.70 late in the day.

    and yet the S&P held...

    Right until 1 minute after the close that is, and looks like S&P dropped dramatically!

    Soooo obvious.

    If there is any bad news out this weekend, like socialists getting booted big time in spain, well, look for a stock market drop monday morning.

    Normally I would say that means commodities will take a kicking too, but seriously, the way copper and gold are trading really makes me wonder.

    Maybe we really will see a commodities/dollar decoupling?

    Certainly possible on a major event like sovereign default and/or banking crisis in europe.

    I'll believe it when I see it though.

  37. SSK

    Maybe you have to quit watching that laggard GDX and tune into GDXJ instead. GDX is dominated by the most boring gold stocks on earth. Barrick, Newmont, Ashanti? I wouldn't buy those on a bet.

  38. IMF approves Euro 26 billion loan to Portugal. Finland and Norway gotta be happy with that!

    Grabbed some bbls of WTI and have my silver on for the weekend. See how it goes.

    You Indiana boys making some fiat on corn?

  39. @pedro

    i call bullshit

    sorry but quite honestly people don't want the rich to follow the "laws". we want people to be moral and ethical. the law provides a construct for the rich to be legal yet unethical.

    in fact, the profession of law was created simply to help the rich lie. don't believe me, then read the 47 page itunes disclaimer or my 70 page rental agreement...

    if u r going to focus on breaking the law, then why not spend energy on important breaches of the law, like the federal reserve?

    i hate the idea of "all politicians lie" so they should be able to...but all birthers prove is that americans are idiots.

    we r being swindled left and right, and u r worried about a birth certificate? so what if we prove he is not from here...then what, impeach him for next 12-24 months?

    that's what u suggest we do? while the chinese are buying countries in the middle east, we r focusing on nonsense.

    blows my mind. almost like there is a 0 learning curve for people.

  40. Eric#1 said...
    new thread? Thank God!
    May 20, 2011 3:49 PM
    sometimes new threads change nothing ... luv you man :-)

    Dr. Jerome
    from bottom of last thread ... totally agree with you and many will do better to heed what you have said there because what we are witnessing will not change ... God bless you and yours
    Now ... on to the real important stuff

    scorecard so far

    1. shall I continue? = 5
    2. should I shorten it? = 0
    3. should I get a life? = 1 Eric :-)

  41. MissesFan,

    My relatives live in Louisville. I took my nephew up there for the first time, he's 12, took to it like fish to water, F'ing fearless, LOL. I on the other hand, living in the Great PNW, was not use to boarding on ice, busted my knee on ice and was pained for almost a week, bone to ice not good!

  42. Pedro,
    I am well aware of the shenanigans between the EE and the politics of our nation.
    I have chosen to disconnect from both.
    They are just not worth my time.

    It's funny to hear people quibbling about the silver or gold "premium" at the coin stores. If you compare the $60 gold "premium" per ounce or the $6 silver "premium" per ounce, how does that "premium" compare to the checking account "fee", the 30% credit card interest rate, or the $30 wire fee at the local Fed-feeding bank per MONTH?


    The other laugher is hearing people quibble about "storage" fees for PM's.

    Heck, I pay the bank a hundred different fees per year and I still got nothing in those accounts worth really saving.

    The USD is a bit and a byte.

  43. basically u r screwed if anything more than 500k is lost in ur trading account...???!!??

    wtf, anyone know what the coverage on interactive brokers is?

    the "additional insurance" policy btw is based upon their discretion so no insurance really

  44. @Malcolm - 100% agree....a powder day in Southern IN is very different than a powder day at Vail or Whistler. When on the ice, point em straight!

    @DE - I am too ignorant to dip my fiat into the paper Ag arena....hell, most people would probably say I am too ignorant to dip my fiat into paper PMs!

  45. @Eric#1, @SSK:
    No doubt GDX has been a dog, but at least from the early december highs GDXJ has been just as mangy. Unfortunately i own both...but in the case of GDX i believe the technicals are turning and am looking forward to a great week next week (monday anyway, as i like the setup).. Just as the miners dragged while the metals rallied, perhaps they will lead the up move before the summer doldrums.....enjoy your weekends

  46. miner volume faded after the morning big boyz buying....they are accumulating and so should you....its going to be a trade for the short term before they rip it up

  47. Supporting Kli's post with a chart. Miner to Gold ratio getting awfully low and you can see what happened in the past when we got a spike down like we are seeing now.

  48. @SilverIsKing

    I saw that email too and had to look into this for some strange reason.

    The certificate of live birth released by the government (which was evidently signed and dated in 1961 on the date of Obama's birth) claims that his father was born in Kenya, East Africa.

    Official certificate:

    As far as I can tell, Kenya didn't exist until 1963 so the point is not really how, where or when his father was born. The question is how the heck did "Kenya" appear on Obama's birth certificate (as the place of fathers birth) in 1961?

    Interesting to me simply in it's entertainment value as it makes no difference in my life where the guy was born.

    Perhaps we will soon see another press conference in time to interupt the next episode of "The Apprentice" in order to clear up these huge lingering issues that have such a tremendous impact on the future of the USA. :)

  49. Turd, good things come to those who wait...........

    Buon weekend a tutti (good weekend all)

    Atlee, calling Atlee, on the golf course?

  50. SSK

    Thanks for bringing it up. I made a mistake. I was talking about something different than you brought up. I did not know there were PM stocks that were going down in this bull market. I would put my money to better use.

  51. @ sp
    Without the rule of law, we are barbarians (or worse).

    @ Pedro
    "But what does it matter if I have 500 oz of gold if I live in a country where the government does not respect the law?" That's a good question for sp to reflect on quietly, by him- or herself.

    @ Strong Side
    I always enjoy reading your comments.

    @ Everyone
    Make sure you are long base metals and alloys (steel, copper jacketed lead and brass) to defend your PMs and the US Constitution. As time goes by, it looks like a Thomas Jefferson revolution is in our future more so than a Ron Paul revolution (no offense to the Paulites here).

  52. Turd,

    I had faith. I kept my Comex gold longs. It worked out great.

    I guess if I REALLY had faith, I would have bought more, but I was already long enough.


  53. It was called Kenya in 1961. No problems there.

  54. Interesting to me simply in it's entertainment value as it makes no difference in my life where the guy was born.

    Well is should. Either we live under a constitution that limits the power of government or we live in a totalitarian state where your taxes are 100% of your total wealth. Because the state will own everything and you will be allowed only enough to survive to work to make money for the state.

    Obama is definitely not a NBC because his father was not a citizen. a NBC is one who is born on the soil to 2 citizen parents.

    Obama was born British. Once a Brit always a Brit. did we fight 8 years of a war of independence from Britain only to have a British President. NO WAY !!

  55. Thanks, Chin. :D Sometimes some of the offtopic comments are a little um, well, blue...rough/tough. It's okay....I'm a big girl, finding my way in the PM world, but, wish it didn't have to be so. But, life isn't perfect :) For those of you that are so very respectful and kind, thank you :) Lord knows I'm so very thankful for Turd, Along the Watchtower and everyone in the community. I cannot tell you how beneficial your sharing your PM expertise, challenges, successes/failures, doubts/confidences, predictions, prepping ideas and general good day posts have been to me (and my family). Thanks everyone! I've been led here, of that I know. Hope I can in some small way be of benefit to you someday! Carry on comrades...the end of time is near...tick, tick, tick.. LOL Happy Weekend Turdites!

  56. GO!!!!!!!!!!TURD!!!!

    Enjoy your new arrival m8..very much deserved.

  57. @birthers
    Stay on topic please. Your conspiracy theories do not interest many people on here.

  58. I'm from Louisville and I've been to Paoli a few times. Very icy and hard to ski. Pretty county though. Derby is awesome...recommend it highly. Southern girls in sundresses!!!

  59. June Gold 1513.60; July Silver 35.075; July WTI 99.91

    Day is done. Hit it Jimmy:

    Yesterdays are over my shoulder,
    So I can't look back for too long,
    There's just too much to see
    Waiting in front of me,
    And I know that I just can't go wrong

  60. I see Turd trading a little corn this week so I'll comment.

    Action is about as wild as silver.
    I took profit on my position yesterday, maybe a little early. Did not want to
    stay long over the weekend. Will look to buy the first dip. May not get much of
    one. Sunday night weather maps will be the driver. Maps today look friendly.
    Planting progress on Monday will be about 80%. Getting the last 20% planted will
    be a challenge. The easy acres are planted. Western corn belt almost complete,
    eastern corn belt has issues. (I think SSK commented on this)

    Due to rains and flooding, does not look like the US will get 92 million acres
    planted. We will not rebuild stocks. Consumption next year will be limited to
    production. This market could go crazy like silver this summer depending on weather.
    If it does, expect political intervention, CFTC, CME, ect, like silver. Could be
    more money made going down than up.

    Get your charts out, July should try the old high 7.88. $8 before long?
    Rice moving averages turning bullish too, with bullish fundamentals.

    Thanks again Turd for the info you put out. If the world ends tomorrow,
    its been a good ride.

    I expect to be back here Monday. Everyone have a great weekend. Time to crack
    open a cold adult beverage.

  61. Hey Ranch! Or Hiya!

    I was at the Oaks a couple of weeks ago. I've been to about 10 Derby infields! Great fun, though being a little older and and cheaper now, when I come into town now I just go to friend parties and drink up their liquor :).

  62. @ Turd:

    1) Thanks yet again for all you do. I've looked at many PM blogs, and since I started reading this one I've bagged the rest - this one is SOOOO much better that I don't bother wasting my time on the rest.

    2) Great call on the 2nd bottom. I bought a put on ZSL, and while it was a tad premature, if Ag goes anywhere near 39 in the next couple weeks I will be very happy. More investments to follow when my 401(k) rollover to an IRA actually rolls.

    3) Question: Where do you get the symbols for the options on agricultural and energy commodities. I strongly believe that not only PMs will rise as the dollar resumes its conversion to merde, but oil and food as well (like we all see every week). Sorry, but I can't find anything on the Fidelity site for this (where my accounts are located).


  63. Art: Just eliminated half my position and I'll look to buy it back on the next dip.
    Thanks for your consistent input to the blog. There will be a "grains" forum on the new site just for you! TF

  64. I stocked up on canned and popping corn.

  65. One more comment - Turd you may be interested in this.

    Weekly Grain Options begin trading Monday for corn, soybeans, and wheat.

    New WGOs will typically come on approximately three weeks prior to their scheduled expiration and will be listed so there will be an option expiring every Friday when there isn’t already a ‘standard’ or ‘serial’ option expiring.

    They will offer more affordable option coverage for shortterm but significant events.

    Not sure of all the details or how to get quotes. That may be my weekend research.

  66. Paul W

    damn I'm good, I can really pickem'... seriously tho' thank you for posting your past PM blog experience ... this is actually my first and only blog experience and I am quite content here and will not bother to look for another ... OK OK I hear the groans but you all will just have to deal with it!!!!!!!

    Word Ver = obless (I kid you not) now you really are stuck with me Turd.

  67. Right on once again Turd, you never know you might still be right on your first guess of $39 silver by end of May. If we get even to 38 I'll still count that as a hit!

    Hey California Lawyer if you are around, have you been following the two silver manipulation class action suits that were files right after Andrew Mcguire came out last year? Just wondering. I have been trying to find info about those cases everywhere and it seems like its been swept under the rug in terms of media.

    Last thing I read they were trying to prove an attempt at market manipulation rather than actual manipulation because it is easier to prove. Anyone else remember those cases? Maybe it was just a really good dream:)

  68. Art, thanks for the comments on the grains. Much appreciated.

  69. Turd, take a rest this weekend along with your family..we will need you for next week..have a glass of Carmenere wine and some lasagna or at least some BBQ, thank you.

  70. Thanks, Turd. I'm so glad you were around this morning to calm me down.

    Here is my position now: I am half way in, planning to buy the other half once it passed 35.50. But this would mean I am buying high. We have very good traders here, any suggestion?

  71. Hi all -

    Sorry, but feel the need to say my peace.

    I have watched the “birther” issue run through two threads now and really feel the need to place this issue into context.

    Everyone is here for Turd's investment advice, either because they desire more fiat for profitability from PM”s or they are preparing for a financial collapse. But many got attracted to silver PM's/ because it was a chink in the armor of the TPTB.

    My issue with this entire discussion is that I see many chinks in their armor, silver is only one.

    Bear with me as I lay this out please...

    We all saw the “Arab Spring” and continue to watch the dominoes. But there is yet to be an MSM report on the European riots, the “Spanish Revolution” or much mention other than Greece. If you google it, you will that what the protests are about is exactly what 99% of the bitching on this site is about. The TPTB!!! Some of the sites spell it out in English, but the bottom line is unemployment and they are tired of “austerity”. In other words, why should we pay for a financial collapse we didn't cause? They have an election this weekend and I am extremely interested in effects but more so in the public's reaction. This has also spread too Italy by the way. It could turn violent, it could also crush the EU. Citizenry demanding new rules, refusing to pay the bankers.

    Just another chink in the armor!

    If they are successful, and we have the debt raised, inflation from money printing, do you really believe that it won't be expanded here? That we will not have huge demonstrations by the fall?

    Now to the birther issue....
    Instead of constantly thinking “conspiracy theory”... what if?

    What if it is true? Is it simply fraud? Hell no!!!! It's treason!!!! Add treason to some riots and now think if it is controllable? If Obama were arrested for Treason, who else would fall? Think more of the TPTB wouldn't fall?

    The caveat - I believe that the TPTB will choose the US as the place to make a stand. We have the greatest debt and the most that they can profit from. We also have an armed population. Their huge miscalculation! We have discharged in excess of one million combat veterans, either retirees or those that contracts expired in the last 10 years.

    That birther conspiracy could become the domino that brings the house down!

  72. I've been silent for a while...I know you missed me. Anyway, I went to the store today and bought a whole mess of doomsday dimes at 25x face. I was waiting on that purchase for $30 silver but TFs posts convinced me to not wait.

    Besides, even if I got 30 that would only be 21.5x. If you are a physical buyer, do it this weekend. If we aren't at the bottom we are very friggin close. No point waiting any longer.

    Thanks TF and sorry again for being abrasive earlier.

  73. Obama is a sockpuppet fer sure. But until your bring Bush Jr, Clinton, Bush Sr, Carter (and dig up Reagan and Ford) and put em all on trial for high crimes and misdemeanors, don't fucking bother me with "birther" issue...

  74. Hmmmm.... those bars look familiar....

  75. @Edward

    You have to start somewhere. Instead of dismissive, look for possibilities.

  76. justmy02,

    Look, I agree with the premise of your comment. But, it still stands that there are 10 of 15 treasonous acts that have been committed by our government within the last 10 years. I just find it completely hypocritically of those that didn't have an issues, with the Supreme Court stopping the vote count in 2001, COUP! but why bother :(.

    Good Luck!!

  77. Michael said:

    @ Everyone
    Make sure you are long base metals and alloys (steel, copper jacketed lead and brass) to defend your PMs and the US Constitution. As time goes by, it looks like a Thomas Jefferson revolution is in our future more so than a Ron Paul revolution (no offense to the Paulites here).

    Here is a site that provides the BEST prices for guns and ammo:

  78. No, Turd, this blog is not the best in the world, it's the best in the galaxy (if/when you're FED chairman, then it'll be the best in the universe).

  79. @michael

    if u think the united states banking elite are anything besides barbarians, u r living under a rock.

    perhaps u think we are in a civil society b/c u were born and raised here (or in the western world). now that the corporations are showing their true colors and reaming the locals, u r hopefully coming to awareness & realizing there is only a veneer of civility which covers a large pile of shit.

    sorry man but i grew up as an asian kid in the midwest in the 1980s, not so worried about losing my gold; had the shit beat out of me by the locals as a little kid several times (not to mention being born in a house with no plumbing, electricity, or sewage 35 yrs ago). in fairness, they thought i was mexican or black (sarcasm).

    i am definitely not scared of the "government". now the bankers on the other hand, well there is a reason i am on this site....

    it's not that i'm all about chaos, trust me, that's not my interest. i'm just not a big fan of focusing to much on the govt as imo they are small 6 figure puppets. i'm more concerned about the 9&10 digit gorillas...

    btw kinda on the subject, great post at zerohedge:

  80. Turd --

    I'm wondering what your thoughts are the price response for gold/silver if these protests in Spain & Italy push those countries to default.

    On one hand, it seems that though it would be havoc for the EU & the Euro -- and push money towards the dollar, bad for PMs. Also, it could be seen as the ultimate form of austerity, also bad for PMs. Perhaps also, total chaos in Europe would be a strong catalyst for risk-off globally. (bad for PMs?, maybe good for PMs?)

    Your thoughts are appreciated.

  81. Good news from Bart Chilton at the CFTC

  82. @AgApe47,

    Do you really trust anything Chilton says? Did he really say anything? Are you expecting him to put position limits on the EE?

    I wouldn't hold my breath on any of those.

    Just saying.

  83. you've got to love the perspective of Richard Russell but the picture at the link below is just fugly.

  84. Dear Aliens,

    I sure hope you read Turd's blog.

    Please beam me up at your earliest convenience. I am a lost dog on this insane planet.

    If that is too much too ask, can you please arrange gold $10000, silver $200 within the next couple of months? That would definitely help.

    Thanks. Hope to hear from you soon. And ... uh ... God Bless...


  85. Tyonk

    OUch! I didn't even notice that the first time I went there.

  86. You guys crack me up. We'll see silver dip into $33s again next week.
    I don't really believe that but seeing how every thread now needs a douche contrarian i'm tossing the first one out.
    How's that for deflating the froth?
    Man I do love cappuccino I have to tell ya. :)

  87. Hello all. Just wondered what anyone thought of Alex Jones? Is he one of them or one of us?


  88. Hey, saw stuff on Obama birther and other non-PM... maybe we should start a dating service here too? Not that I don't agree with all that was said, I DO... :>)

  89. @Malcolm

    Yes, I'm a bit old for infield too. My first Derby was 1981. Love the Oaks... Thats for locals (So. Indiana brothers included). I have Mucho Macho Man in the Preakness. Malcolm & Turd...who are you bettin?

    Love this blog tho' it's a bit addictive. My wife wonders who the hell Turd is...too funny!

  90. Preakness:

    I'll put my $2 on Mucho Macho Man to show.

    I had Nehro to show in the Derby, so my imaginary horse betting account is doing better in May than my real life gold and silver account. :D

  91. Well with your teachings Turd I caught close to the top and called a bottom as a noob. Folks look to your food on hand cause this years harvest looks ugly.It'll make 2008 look like a walk in the park. Food is still realatively cheap and getting 6 months of bulk goods for 1 person will set you back a couple of oz. of silver for beans and rice. I think we will see another dip in silver or at least a slower run up through June. I only see food getting more expensive and no dips. Just as a insurance or a hedge so to speak.
    On a happier note brewed my first batch of beer and it turned out awesome

  92. Sorry I could not copy all of Morris to one post. Here's his take on the Dollar, GDXJ, and Silver. Best To Everyone.

    Morris Hubbartt
    Weekly Market Update Excerpt
    posted May 20, 2011

    UUP (US Dollar Proxy) Chart

    Dollar Commentary

    Overwhelming negative sentiment has nearly played out, and the US dollar has moved into a countertrend rally. I warned that my own buy signal for the dollar should be ignored, due to the hugely bearish main dollar trend. Stay focused on using any further rally in the dollar to buy more gold, silver, and metals stocks.
    This week you can see on the chart that dollar buying power is already showing signs of petering out. I now look for a meandering market in the dollar, followed by another slight move higher into the mid June timetable.
    Rather than looking for ways to save dollars, perhaps you should be looking for ways to save yourself from the dollar itself. The old saying, “Don’t fight the Fed” is a big key to understanding the movement of the dollar. In the big picture, the Fed wants a lower dollar, and they are getting it.
    This is a countermove in the dollar that will likely halt at the $22 area for UUP. The dollar is in a long term structural decline. My time line target is mid June for the end of the countertrend move to the upside. I look for a violation of the lows at ­­­­20.80, and then a fall towards $19.30, likely by mid fall.

    The $1570 target was acquired. The immediate pullback from the $1570 overshoot offered a new buy at $1475. Gold touched the $1462 area. Looking forward, I see a minor up move, followed by more selling into mid June. From there I expect a huge move to the upside that will substantially eclipse my $1700 target.
    The most important chart in the gold trade is the channel overshoot shown on the above chart. The overshoot chart set the $1425 target in November, which was hit. The most recent call for $1570 was based upon the inverse head and shoulders pattern, one that went unnoticed by the majority of investors. When a dependable chart pattern goes unnoticed it can become even more powerful.
    The overshoot of that price supply band has bullish implications, and will likely give the price a premature bump up into the upper channel by August. Don’t let the current negative sentiment scare you away from gold or gold stocks.
    Much of the fear in the precious metal markets is in relation to the Fed’s QE2 program, which is supposed to end in June. I believe what is actually coming is an unwinding of the “sell gold in fear” trade. Selling gold in fear means buying the dollar. The dollar has been going up a tiny bit, but if you look closely at the above chart, it’s a disaster. The debt factors that have caused this chart to look so horrendous are bigger than ever.

    GDXJ 14 Month Chart

    This GDXJ chart is exactly the same timeline as the previous chart for GDX that examined the gold senior stocks. The comparisons of the three sections on both charts are compelling. I don’t look for this market to get fully engaged on the upside until mid to late June, but this is an example of the last great buy opportunities that you will have in the gold markets. If you are underinvested in gold stocks, this would be a great place to place additional capital. My largest money in the bull market to date, for gold stocks, went into this market through Tuesday.
    Silver via SIVR- 6 months

    Silver has gone through a violent correction, and is now in the technical repair zone. Again, those who acted on their wildly bullish emotions at the top, buying silver with leverage, are now blown away. That said, in my opinion silver should be bought into this and further weakness. I bought physical silver in the $35 price area. My next buy of physical metal will be at the $31.50 area, as you can see pointed out on the chart. I see a change in character back to the bullish uptrend by mid-June, and new highs are most likely to be seen by August. Buckle your seat belts, because the silver price roller coaster will only get wilder.

  93. @Sockeye Seing as I don't live in the USA it really makes no difference to me but I understand where you are coming from. From the outside looking in it just seems foolish to have these type of insignificant issues talked about in the msm when there are much more important issues to be dealt with.

    Also, it seems there is a new "Alex" on the blog. Just want to make sure everyone knows he is not me. Alex, perhaps you can update/amend your profile so there is no future confusion.

    Turd, I received my Great Panther bars as well today. Nice and shiny not to mention still warm and in strong hands now. Nice to be able to book paper profits and convert some into silver. Hat's off to you for everything you do for the community.

  94. I'll worry about that after the move to the new site and shut up in the meantime. Honestly, I usually just quietly read what Turd and yinz commenters write about PMs and have only piped up lately because I don't feel like this is the proper forum for birth certificate etc. talk.


    This is something closely related to owning silver in the near future.

  96. Turd, do you expect the cartel to be successful in raiding gold back down as we approach CRIMEX gold June expiry this Wednesday? I'm guessing you think they could as you've sold your gold calls

  97. @ SilverisKing

    My father is also Kenyan, born in Mombasa in 1945. On every single Canadian document he has it lists his country of birth as Kenya, not British East Africa Company which it was until Independance.

    This is such a silly topic.

  98. Gina,

    I hear ya gurl. :D

    ....Maybe TF will put in a ladies' only forum that we can escape to from time to time when the air gets thick and stuffy and it gets hard to breathe in here. *cough*..*choke*

    :D It's great that you are here. We are learning together. :]


    I think it depends on who you ask! ..I have seen Alex Jones referenced both ways around here. Some like..some don't. I am not certain as there are so many links that I have c&p'd to a notebook to go back and look at ...among them Alex Jones' stuff I believe. I am very far behind tho .....on everything!

  100. Nice photo Turd! thank you for your insight and time devoted to this site.

  101. Whether you believe the War Powers Act is constitutional or not does not matter until SCOTUS rules on it. As such it is a current law and the President is openly violating said law.

    If there was ever a clearer reason to impeach and throw out a president this is it.

    Also, it does not matter that the president said that because we have no troops he is in compliance with the law. The law in question specifically say armed forces, not soldiers.

    I believe the government is making an attempt to set the stage for federal police/troops to enter without warrants any house USA to search for weapons in order to insure against an uprising of the people. You couple this decision with an impending financial doomsday scenario and the playbook is set to be completed and executed.
    We all may joke about go times and I went outside and no one else was there. But what was a country built on principles that no other nation dared to build on and turned ours into the mightiest because of our freedoms is falling apart as the freedoms and liberties are being taken away. You look at the nations that have tried to rule by government control and restricted rights and they all have failed. It is almost as if they have said, " lets go to America, they are free and will let us in, we can try again there". Well, it looks as if another socialist/commie country is in the making and we god loving, freedom loving, willing to die for our belief individuals are about to get another test as to what we are made of. This time though, the government is going to use our own men and women of the military against us in order to take our constitution away from us, hopefully there are those amongst their ranks that will see the light and say no and join the ranks of those that want to empower the individual and their liberties.
    There may be police showing up at your door very soon to say, " can we come in and see what you have in the line of guns?" because it will be us they come to first, time for a boating accident?!! Look out for the national crisis that shuts down the internet so we cannot communicate and cell service right along with it. Tin foil hat? Not really its happening right in front of you. So drop the distraction birther stuff, there are much more grave issues in our sites.

    Sleep well.

  102. @ concerned citizen

    I think you may be missing my point. When were your father's Canadian documents created? If they were created years before Kenya's independence, how would anyone know to put Kenya on the document?

    In the case of Obama's BC, if his father was born in the British East Africa Company in 1936 and Barack Obama (President) was born in 1961, how could a BC created in 1961 reflect Kenya as his father's country of birth two years before Kenya came into existence?

    I'm not a birthed but I'm intrigued by the conflicting data and what it all means.

  103. I just checked out Great Panthers site to buy some of those 5ouncers and they're out of stock of 1 5 and 10 ounce bars....thought I'd pass it on.

  104. @JoeKa - good to see you up and about. Awesome calls for the day today in earlier threads... Will be interesting to see the head-to-head between your and TF's prediction. Though, if the volatility of 1st week in May is once again unleashed, the two are not mutually exclusive... :-]

    Save America 1st - this blogger has an interesting list of possible options on WHAT that 8.4 reading might have been (including a 50 MT underground detonation):
    Only thing missing from HIS list is the atmospheric device that sounds like an x-large stringed instrument... THAT explanation surfaces on this site, in the comments:

    At this point, I would not be surprised at anything. Though even with the media blackout, such a quake would definitely have been felt in Tripoli, and so COULD be verified by those with sources still on the ground there. Don't know any Libyans myself, tho.

    @SilverisKing - take a look at this:
    The informal or colloquial name for the area in question I would guess (but do not know) could very well have been accepted as 'Kenya'. They never asked my for MY (foreign) birth certificate to verify my or my wife's city and country of birth when we filled out the BC form for our kids born here -- they just took what we wrote down as fact. I could easily have made up a nonexistent city/village, and perhaps even country, if I really wanted. Cannot imagine they would have checked more closely in 1961.

    But like I said earlier, to me it is a moot point. I believe TPTB to be perfectly capable of forging a fictitious bio and identity, and manufacturing (as well as 'erasing') necessary corroborating evidence/witnesses. That they WOULD go to such lengths to install THIS particular man seems a bit too much effort to get into when an alternative figurehead without such problems could have been found. Occam's Razor is usually (but not always) right.

  105. Not to detract from discussing the POSOTUS, or where his own family says he was born, let alone layered photshop files passed of as an actual scan of a document that was supposedly already provided, but wasn't really, and then that state officials claimed toi have seen, then not so much, then that didn't even exist, but used to be there and was surely legit, LOL, but the small arms fire on the border has begun and you are losing the right to your own money in your 401K's

    Long live the rule of law, right. Their rules = your law to obey.

  106. Hi Everyone,

    I suspect we'll see the U.S. Dollar continue its rally through the Summer, the Euro still has its problems and is now lending strength to the Dollar, this could last for several more months... if so, then gold and silver will still likely be under pressure... this of course presents a buying opportunity for the precious metals, the Dollar rally should succumb in the Fall when the precious metals again take the spot light for a rally into new all time highs...

    I'm long the U.S. Dollar, long silver and have written Calls for my long silver... I believe the time premiums will decay nicely throughout the Summer as the precious metals "correct" in a wide trading range for the Summer both above and below current levels...

  107. This comment has been removed by the author.

  108. PM - have you seen this one?

  109. Hey CD! I will almost always defer to our fearless captain Turd.
    I am just a fellow rowing mate on his ship matey.
    That said, even though I called the dip levels for two days, I'm still not long.
    Perhaps I need my head...and rowing skills checked out. :P

  110. @TradingPaper

    Thx for the sharing.

  111. @Shill - the various aspects of eroding freedoms and increasingly arrogant self-appointed emperors in the WH are parts of a LARGE tapestry or quilt, of which the BC issue could be a small corner pastiche. Each segment is but a symptom or expression of the underlying cause.

    I am very afraid that you are absolutely right, and that for example the Citizens United decision is all we really need to look at for final confirmation of this. It's only a matter of timing and specific tactics/methods -- the 'if' has been decided long ago.

  112. I've read some posts about buying physical online and I thought I'd chime in. I recently put in a 100K+ order (me and some friends) with and they are really inexpensive and delivered like they were supposed to (sort of).

    They were jerks and hung up on me when I called to tell them that they didn't deliver as fast as their owner said they would(although they delivered faster than their website stated). The metals came over night shipping but a couple days later than promised.

    Their prices are low and so is their service but now that we have it, all I care about is the prices.

  113. @PM,

    If the USD strengthens against the EUR due to economic/political turmoil in certain European countries, I'm not so sure PMs will be under pressure as a result. There should be high demand for gold and silver from Europeans who are looking to offload their fiat and it's likely that they're going to seek safe refuge in PMs.

    If I recall, during the first Greek crisis, PMs fared quite well even though the USD strengthened against the EUR.

  114. @Levelheaded,

    I've never had a bad experience with Tulving. They have the most competitive prices and terrific service. When you called them, did you act like a jerk?

    If so, perhaps they were justified in hanging up on you.

    Just a thought because there are three sides to every story...yours, his, and he truth.

  115. @CD,

    You could very well be correct in that Kenya might have been called Kenya even before they achieved their independence and if that's the case, it explains the discrepancy.

    If not, it seems to prove the fraud.

    Regardless, the public doesn't give shit if he was born on Mars so the issue is essentially a distraction from everything else right in the world.

  116. @silver

    we called fairly late at night and ordered with the owner. As I gather from speaking with them he takes all calls after hours (respectable) but sometimes is lacking in sleep. Also he sounded a little drunk. I'm drunk sometimes so I don't begrudge but really he didn't sound tip top. Anyway, he promised to ship the next day. I called the next day and the customer service rep said that sometimes he promises things that the rank and file can't deliver. I pressed that if he promised then they should deliver as he promised. It ended in a click.

    Honestly I didn't call back after that because they had a ton of our dough and I didn't want to piss them off. so I just waited and prayed. It came.

    Bottom line is order during the day and don't talk to the owner at night and you should be fine. I understand because I used to work at a place where we were always covering for the owner. Kind of a shame but it is what it is.

  117. @TradingPaper said... Morris Hubbartt Following Para

    I bought physical silver in the $35 price area. My next buy of physical metal will be at the $31.50 area, as you can see pointed out on the chart.

    I am curious if $31.50 is correct or he meant $41.50. Anyone can thro some light on this?

    I am bit hesitant now as some TurdTown residents JoeKa and Pailin has some reservations and predicting Silver going down to 30.

  118. I agree that Hannes (Tulving) doesnt have the best bedside manner but they are reliable. He shouldn't make promises that he can't keep but best to speak to Karen regarding receipt of funds and shipment info.

  119. @Level

    Are you still bearish on Silver for next week or think dark clouds have passed?

  120. SilverIsKing said...

    "If the USD strengthens against the EUR due to economic/political turmoil in certain European countries, I'm not so sure PMs will be under pressure as a result. There should be high demand for gold and silver from Europeans who are looking to offload their fiat and it's likely that they're going to seek safe refuge in PMs.

    If I recall, during the first Greek crisis, PMs fared quite well even though the USD strengthened against the EUR."

    YES, YES, YES!!! I totally agree. Exactly my thoughts every time I read a post that seems to imply that the USDX and Gold are on a direct teeter totter agains each other. Bravo, SilverIsKing!

  121. Someone asked me the planetary price lines for Silver in 2011. Here it is at this url.

    Like Gold, Silver has been tracking closly to the red Mars PL for most of the recent rise since Aug 2010. However, the recent big drop has Silver plunged through the red Mars PL and reached until the other side of the Red mirrored Mars PL.

    I expect Silver to be "Ping Pong" between these cluster of the PLs for the time being.

  122. This comment has been removed by the author.

  123. To what extent Blythe Masters can suppress the rise of Silver? I have listed some reasons, just need some confirmation on these. JPM & HSBC will suppress Silver

    1) Only till the time they keep getting interest free money from the FED
    2) Only till Dollar projects itself strong
    3) Only till Crimex has possession of physical silver
    4) Only till they have exhausted all the margin rules manipulation at Crimex, reached 100% margin, and then allow only Sell orders (same as what happened during the Hunt Brothers)
    5) Only if QE3 is not implemented
    6) Only if Interest rates are not allowed to rise.

    Thanks in advance to the experts for confirming my understanding?

  124. Oh man. This is deteriorating. There were a few good guys left the week after the dip, but when it went back up to 39 and then back to 33, really noone remained but the full retards and the oh so glorious technical daytraders (who probably make as much as 0,1% a day after paying commissions to the EE).

    And I'm very convinced some are disinfo agents, if not just plain retarded... but their persistence tells me that they are disinfo agents, because you can't be retarded and so persistent at the same time.

    Sad to see that nearly noone here has conviction. Every point of data (COT, SLV holdings, the persistent backwardation, and even technicals like RSI) shows silver is the most bullish right now it has been since right after the crash of late 08, early 09... DESPITE us actually still being in the green for the year. Yet NOBODY is talking about just being long silver.

    At least, when things were going up, a lot of people were faking conviction, when they were just coming along for the ride. I guess I miss that :)

  125. KWN Weekly Metals Wrap

  126. Trader Dan seems to be on the same page as Turd. Gold to pull silver higher. Close above $36 will give Silver a potential move to $39 to $40.

  127. sp,

    Good afternoon (where I am located).

    "we want people to be moral and ethical. the law provides a construct for the rich to be legal yet unethical."

    I agree. However, until we can come up with a better system, the rule of law is the best thing we've got. How do you suppose we punish people for being amoral without laws? Who gets to decide what is moral? By what values? The rule of law may not be perfect, but it's the best thing we've got. Try living in a country without it and you'll be very glad that we still have some honest courts in the US.

    "if u r going to focus on breaking the law, then why not spend energy on important breaches of the law, like the federal reserve?"

    I do. I read Phil Berg, Jermone Corsi and Wayne Madsen, Webster Tarpley, etc. on the 'birther' issue just as I read G. Edward Griffin, Ron Paul, Martin Armstrong, Bill Still, etc. on the Federal Reserve and money, just as I read John Taylor Gatto, etc. on education and so on about the food industry, drug industry, globalization, etc. etc. I read over 400 pages per day, 6 days a week on all issues of importance. They're ALL important because they all affect our lives.

    "we r being swindled left and right, and u r worried about a birth certificate? so what if we prove he is not from here...then what"

    Yes, everything matters. To allow lawlessness to go on in any area to to say to the politicians that they can walk all over us. Remember that they work for us, not the other way around. There are great people fighting on all fronts and they deserve support. To belittle their cause is to give up your rights, no matter how small.

    Some people take on the birth issue, others the federal reserve, and yet others fight to keep our rights to grow organic food. Even the great Turd here does his part by helping individuals with their financial well being. They should all be applauded for their efforts, not be called 'racists' or 'nutjobs'.

    Even if they are actually wrong, the intent to keep politicians' feet to the fire is in itself a great cause to be celebrated. I'm sure that if tomorrow, scientists find a way to create gold and silver in a lab, rendering them worthless, no one here would say that they lost their wealth because it was the Turd's fault. The common thread is the intent to help others. Don't think anything is nonsense, until you've looked at it in depth. It all matters to varying degrees. I invite you to read some of the names I listed above on certain issues. It will really open your eyes.

    And a good weekend to you too from Asia.

  128. Hi Sunil.Just a couple of missing points,
    1) Until an exchange opens somewhere else in the world and totally bypasses the fraud,manipulation and lack of physical metal and the price shows a true and free market.Maybe the Hong Kong enterprise will be the one.
    2)Until a country or group of countries introduces a currency backed or partially backed by Gold and Silver.
    3)Until a takedown by a Back Swan or combined Black Swan event.
    4)Until the majority of the Sheeple finally work out that any fiat currency,even the likes of Switzerland are the best of a dying system.With Greece,Spain,Ireland,Portugal,Belgium,Italy,etc, all in the frame in a debt slave collapsing EU Empire,Japan in recession,the USA insolvent,what looks better today might not be here tommorrow.
    Got to hand it to you Turd you rang the bell and the market followed,top call.I wonder with whats gone on in the last few months whether the big players and the banks now realise how little physical Silver there actually is,with industrial useage,the 80,s Hunt affair,I really would not be surprised if there is less around than the experts think.Over the last few months a fair amount of the unknown quantity of historically non accounted for physical Silver that has been lurking in private hands has probably hit the market and as soon as characters like Soros say he has sold up you know he is doing the opposite it just won,t be directly traceable.The markets at the moment are like a Poker game with the Stakes and the Pot getting higher and higher sooner or later the hands will have to be shown and thats when we will see the big price moves.Top call,top hat Turd,nice one mate.

  129. Ok, I hate to get off topic , and I hated Bush and I dont like Obama but lets get something out of the way.

    It doesn't matter if Obama was born in Moscow,So long as his mother was a US citizen and had resided in the US for one year during the last 5 years prior to his birth he derives citizenship through his mother.

    I worked for INS a while back, and that is the law, like it or not .

    He did not naturalize to obtain his citizenship like Arnold Scharwtzinconan He derived it through his mother.

    Stop listening to the main stream media, they are major propaganda outlets for the ruling class.

    If president Bush cannot be held accountable for manufacturing evidence to start a preemptive aggressive war which cost millions of lives , and Clinton cannot be held responsible for lying to congress under oath .And after witnessing the theft and manipulation on Wall st Do you still really believe that the ruling class are accountable to the same laws as you and me?

    The birther issue is a red herring, Its a political tool meant to sidetrack and divide the public on an issue .This country's problems far surpass the issue of citizenship.

    Its an old magicians trick, look whats in my right hand while the left completes the trick.

    When the Turd gets his site up I'm sure he will have an off topic to discuss these things, but for now , on this forum, and the way its set up its taking up a lot space . Just stick to investment stuff and canned bacon for now.

    Sorry for the rant Turd, but it had to be said.

  130. Turd, have you studied Rick Ackerman's methods?

  131. In Australia our prime minster is a dutch immigrant, atheist, unmarried woman with no children. She was elected after a coup. She had a smaller portion of the vote but gained power with shady back room deals.

  132. Oh yeah, she's a lawyer too. No offense Cali.

  133. What the hell, Markus? I guarantee you that many of us here are very long and very bullish silver. The cheerleaders went silent because the silver plunge smacked them in the mouth. But you don't have to be a douche about it and insult everyone on this blog.

    And for the record, I went "all-in" on silver mining stocks on Tuesday. It looked like the bottom to me, and I margined to the hilt. Is that bullish enough for you?

  134. I agree with you, F. The Obama birth certificate "issue" is a red herring. Americans and their politics. It's no different than rooting for a favorite sports team. Bread and circuses.

  135. Pedro, people should never be punished for being immoral or amoral. They should only be punished for infringing upon the rights of another.

    I also disagree with you that politics matter. But I'll save that discussion for the new website.

  136. From the Hindustan Times

    "Pakistan's biggest province has cancelled six aid agreements with the United States in protest over the secret US raid that killed Osama bin Laden, its law minister said on Friday."

    WOW What a blow to the American taxpayer, Punjab Province refuses to accept $233 million in US aid. Another blow for Freedom! (snark, snark)

  137. @pedro

    FYI, Madsen is pretty much blowing smoke IMO. I contacted him and personally gave him a tour of some things that needed exposure during the Gulf oil spill last summer. We talked for seveeral hours. he's a nice guy. Then he wrote ana article that was completely sloppy, sensationalized and not factual at all.

    1) Make sure you are following the best sources of news.
    2) Don't believe everything you read.
    3) The birth certifate is irrelevant. His mother was a US citizen. Please get over it and encourage others to move past that issue so that important work can move forward.

  138. Excuse the typos pls. Need more coffee :)

  139. This comment has been removed by the author.

  140. Black Hawk - since they prefer Bridge and Chess, Pakistan has little use for our Monopoly money.

    On the birth certificate issue: While I completely understand why you and many don't want the issue to be investigated further due to its taking the focus and energy off of other, more urgent and important matters of State and the world, I just can't understand why anyone would want to drop it with so much evidence that something is wrong.

    This is an issue because there has been no compliance from the Obama administration to provide the certificate for two years. This could have been done in two days. Then we wouldn't be talking about it today. Instead, Obama's crew had lawyers working to stall, obfuscate and sideline the matter. Why? It would not have become an issue at all had they simply complied. This is troubling to anyone with eyes to see.

    Was it necessary to comply? Was it a legal requirement under the Constitution? In my opinion, yes... but I'll let the Constitutional lawyers argue over the fine print and legalese. Is it simply a matter of Presidential decorum to accommodate those that questioned to put the matter to rest in a respectful, timely way? Yes.

    Does our President wish to create a sideshow to make Republicans look like crazed right-wing "birther" loonies? Maybe, but is that Presidential? Is that what we want in a leader? No.

    What should have been a cut and dried non-issue became one simply because the administration chose to avoid compliance and reject a legal requirement and reasonable request.

    Besides the matter of Constitutional compliance and decorum with respect to the law, there have been too many oddities with the whole thing. First, non-compliance and delay. Then, when the Donald put it in the headlines, a certificate was presented. That was odd, no? Then we find that the document that was presented online is a digitally altered fake. Why?

    Why the obfuscation? Why the layered document? Should we not investigate? In my thinking, we have to. Otherwise, we place our country further down the slippery slope of choosing which parts of the law we follow and which parts we break with impunity.

  141. While this “birther” issue is nowhere near the top of my priorities for this country and I can’t imagine that it would be for anyone that cared about what is transpiring today, I am one that would like to see it played out to a final determination.

    That may never happen because the most powerful are above the law as we all know. Just because it's not the most important issue today is no justifiable or legal reason that this shouldn't be pursued to the end, whether we think it's reasonable to expect we might one day find the truth.

    Still, seeking the truth of the matter should always be important, no matter how people place it as a priority. If the Republicans or other political opposition make the birth certificate oddity their most important issue (they have not), then they would be making a huge mistake.

    But if those that want the truth and the law upheld give up simply because it's not as important as world peace, economy, currency (are the politicians even working on these?), then we enter a darker age of Fascist Totalitarianism where the elite and powerful break any and all laws and arrest those that dare raise an eyebrow.

    I'm not making a character comparison here, but for the lack of a better one at the moment - what would have been if Al Capone's tax issue was ignored because it was not a serious breach of the law? Was that his most serious offense? Not by a long shot. There was no murder or racketeering crime that could be proven. Therefore, should the FBI just walked away? How many more laws would have been broken had they not arrested the murdering criminal? How many more lives would it have cost?

    Maybe it would've been better to use Tricky Dick and the plumbers as an example. Was that just dirty politics as usual or crime? Did that put the country at risk? Was stealing some files of Democrats Nixon's biggest crime? Bigger than Viet Nam? Bigger than moving the country into a fiat Dollar no longer backed by gold?

  142. Yikes. Didn't realize I rambled on so long. Back to the penalty box for me.

    Should'a just said, Black Hawk I like yer stuff but where there's smoke there may be fire. Best check it out.

  143. @larry
    He has citzenship in any case, through his mother, right?

    All the while conservatives waste time on this nonsense and give the megaphone to the looniest of tunes in their wing of the political spectrum, they are making the left stronger. If the fringers were traders, they would go long/lose trading down something like this, until their power base is bankrupt:
    Palin-> Bachmann-> Barbour-> Trump-> Huckabee-> Gingrich-> etc, now, maybe Pawlenty shows some hope to serious adults.

    Meanwhile, who can EVER forget the leader of the birthers, now disgraced, Orly:

    FWIW, I have an official copy of my birth certificate that I got via USPS from the county recorder in the county of my birth for about $5. It's about 3" x 2" and folds up to the size of a business card that fits in a small manilla envelope that came with it. The raised seal is still good after about two decades of carrying it around the world just in case I needed it. I used it to get my passport and my driver's license. As far as I know, it is official and the only version of my birth certificate available to me.

    How about you? I suppose you have the long version of your birth certificate? If not, why not?

    Sometimes where there's smoke, there's somebody trying to con you by trying to blow it up your ...OK never mind. My bird dog needs a run. Have a good weekend.

  144. @G

    The gold chart looks great and the silver chart looks like it has some proving to do. Silver has been a little unsteady but once it gets going it's going to rocket. I have one concern and that is what if Friday's rally in gold was caused by nutso people loading up before the second comming and then dump when he doesn't come knocking. I think though the answer is simplier; we probably just ran out of sellers. Pricing is just supply and demand after all. I'd say there's better than a 75% chance that Turd's bottom is good. Like I said yesterday, it looks increasingly likely that he nailed it. So far so good.

    I mostly trade gold though because silver acts like an irratic freek show so often. If I was buying physical I'd buy silver for sure, as I have no doubt that it will outperform over time. Especially from here at over 43x.

  145. @ Marcus

    Good job man! Way to go! Man with the courage of his convictions is a rare comodity these days. Stay strong and glad to have ya on the blog.

    Don't worry about disinformation agents. They only exist in the lofty environs of network TV and such. They are not down here with us lowly peeps.

    I suspect your just in from a late night clubbing.

  146. @Markus

    FA tells me what to buy and TA tells me when to buy. There's probably more than 100 good reasons to buy silver from a fundamental point of view (which is why I'm a PM buyer). The problem with FA is that nothing has changed from silver at 50 to 32 and now 35. Silver is great, we all know it.

    If you want to hold through a correction like that, well go ahead. I don't, and even if I wanted to I couldn't hold futures through that. 1 silver contract is $5,000 per dollar movement. So from 50 to 32, that's a loss of $90,000 for 1 contract alone and I don't just trade 1 contract.

    I have to be more agile than that and TA allows me to do so, FA can't and never will.

  147. Mister, Agree completely.

    Very bullish as well and bought back into the market at earlier this week.

    I'll also toss in that the Feb-April gave us a good roadmap to follow. I did very well in the 34-49 run but in retrospect I traded too much to be a swing trader and too little to be a daytrader and as a result, I missed out on more gains.

    This time around I've got my low, stacked up on long calls and I'll just sit back and watch not worrying about any dips or runs until late June.

    I have some fiat on the side which I'll daytrade whenever I see the EE fingerprints to maximize profits but my core is long calls and physical which is not going anywhere for a long time.

    I love the chance to get another run from $33.

  148. >> Yet NOBODY is talking about just being long silver.

    I'm long silver, very long. Does that blow yer skirt up? WTF difference does it make?

    The fact that so many people are negative silver right now is an encouraging sign.

  149. We had a massive lightning storm last night. A couple bolts hit around the neighborhood around 1:00 am. The kids and dogs were all having meltdowns and it was hard to get some sleep. I noticed this morning that I was still on earth, along with the rest of my family. Does this mean I am one of the ones left behind for the rapture? I am a little concerned as it seems my neighbors are still around as well. Not being a very religious type does that automatically mean I am some sort of sinner as I am still around?

    I am really confused so any help on why my house still stands and is not covered in fire and brimstone (whatever that is). Should I start to shape some silver rounds into rounds of ammo or is that only good for werewolves? If so should I use Philis instead of ASEs? I do not want to be too cheap and just automatically use the Buffalos as I only paid 0.79 over spot for them for them. The Philis look so nice but they are printed with the dollar amount 1.5Euro so they seem cheaper then ASE or Maples.
    Thanks for your help

  150. For you day traders, here is the ultimate
    trading setup. Where are you?
    Indiana Grain

    YouTube Clip

    BTW, this is not me.

  151. what is the trade-off for buying 100oz physical silver instead of buying 10oz?

    there is significant difference in price/oz

  152. Markus,

    "Oh man. This is deteriorating. There were a few good guys left the week after the dip, but when it went back up to 39 and then back to 33, really noone remained but the full retards and the oh so glorious technical daytraders (who probably make as much as 0,1% a day after paying commissions to the EE)."

    What do you perceive that you have added to the conversation with comments like that?

    BTW- I read comments from many posters who have conviction. My conviction? 90% of my dry powder was allocated to SILVER mining stocks between silver spot of $35 to $34 on the way down! CMA.V, SAC.TO, GPR.TO, EDR.TO. My indicator for when to buy each of these was proximity to the 200DMA.

    Why not try convincing the board how bullish we ought to be instead of insulting people?

    word ver = ureak. how fitting.

  153. Meredith Whitney: "slightly-chubby, sorority-girl and middle aged."
    Jeez, men these days...rude at best.

  154. Sheesh, you think that's bad you should hear how we talk when we KNOW no feems are listening... ;)

  155. Just totally stole a small gold coin off eBay. Melt MINUS 4%, before factoring in rebates. Cheapest gold I ever bought.

    Better get out, buy some lottery tickets, get a bet down on the Preakness, and buy some 90% coin. Feelin' Lucky.

  156. Petr
    The main advantage to the smaller sizes is someday when you go to sell, you have the option of doing a little bit at a time. But if it's a forever type of hold, and/or just a small part of your holdings, then what the hell just get whatever is cheapest.

  157. LevelHeaded said...@G

    The gold chart looks great and the silver chart looks like it has some proving to do. Silver has been a little unsteady but once it gets going it's going to rocket.

    Thanks Level, I am travelling I think I am going to ask more of TA related questions to you all TA experts.

    I am long and I trade smaller contracts. Hope I should be ok if there is a meltdown to 30 this week.

  158. @G

    Morris Hubbart is Stewart Thompson #2. He buys any and all weakness so he has to have some cash at all times. The only difference I see between them are Hubbart's superforce signals, which have been crap since the beginning of the year.

    So when he says he will buy more at 31.50, it doesn't mean he thinks its going to 31.50, thats just where he would continue his cost averaging.

  159. Okay. So earlier this week somebody on here posted this video in response to some trolls.

    Since I'm a busy guy I just bookmarked it to watch later. Sat moring I get the chance to check it out. What the h*ll is this!!!

    Not only is it funny but also slightly disturbing.

    To think this guy probably made enough money back in 72 to buy a giant estate. Looks like footage from The Mike Douglas Show or Dinah. And we worry about what our kids are listening to? I hope they never see this!

  160. @Catseeynu - word...
    Take a closer look at

    And this is just the part of the info that was pretty much cleared for publication beforehand -- all this info comes from public contracts and budget documents... Anything with any kind of layered cover would not even show up.

  161. E-bay is great...
    Until you get ripped off with a fake coin/s - baited and switched.
    Hard to prove otherwise =[

    Be careful people!

    I'm dealing with a monster headache right now - seller is trying to get me thrown off e-bay (a-hole).

    Real bummer.

  162. Been a lot of back n forth on whether we'll go to the 28 level or not.
    I am interested for only one reason. My day trading account. I am maximizing fiat playing the up and down moves between 33 and 36. I am up nicely, and everything over the minimum I need to keep my trading acct. open is going one place. GOLD & Silver. In a few weeks, we will have a true bottom. And we will never see those prices again for 10 years. Stay nimble, and kick ass this week.

  163. @ the people who think a financial crisis will not cause PM peices to fall

    I assume you are familiar with what happened in 2008, so I'm wondering if your reasoning is 'this time it will be different' or is it that your 'conviction' is so strong that you will happily ride out a 50% (80% this time?) drop in PMs before they recover?

    Serious question, I am really trying to figure out what the reasoning is behind your POV, 'cause I just don't see it.

  164. Uptofreedom darling,

    You do understand what the feems say about your little bits, right?

  165. Hi Turd,

    Just want to say thanks for all the helpful, insightful posts you have been making. Your accurate track record speaks for itself and makes nervous newer PM investors like me sleep better at night. :) Thanks again.

  166. p.s. Personally I can see the case for PMs if you believe the high to hyperinflation scenario.

    In that case everything real goes up vs fiat, including stocks, and even real estate will join the party eventually.

    All bad sovereign debts are wiped out by printing money, so no technical defaults and no deflation.

    It's a plausible scenario for sure, but seems inconsistent with believeing in armageddon.

  167. Peter Schiff: Beware the NIA Penny Stock Pump & Dump


  168. Thanks Robert LeRoy Parker !!!

    I was scared to see those comments. I am long and truly believe in Turds #2. But just in case I missed anything I wanted to clarify.

    Thanks Again.

  169. @hum

    1) if/when the market crashes, we think PM's will recover faster than "the market"

    2) Don't put yourself in a position where you can't BTFD. Don't be all in. Hedge appropriately.

    @Feem - No, do tell...

  170. @pedro

    i don't give 2 craps about the birth certificate. obama's, bush's, clinton's, etc.

    it doesn't make u "more aware" to read about this crap. it simply makes u a few minutes/hrs closer to death with useless information that won't add any value to the world.

    btw, i don't remember seeing any birth certificates for any president in the past. that's why people bring up the racist card. how come none of the other presidents were vetted for birth certificates? how come there was no mass movement to prove bush was born here?

    i personally don't care whether the individuals are racist bringing this stuff up, b/c being stupid enough to care is more than enough as a negative personality trait.

  171. Amazing to see how quickly public sentiment about silver collapsed. From 90% as we approached $49 to under 40% today. I suspect XTY was one of the casualties.

    This is actually a bullish sign. We're near historical lows in sentiment levels, which means there aren't many weak hands to push us much lower.

  172. @ UtF

    I also think metals will recover faster, but I am unwilling to be long now and sit through a 50% drop.

    Those with conviction could double up at that point, sure, if they have kept half their account in cash, but I've been in that position before, and it's a tough thing to do, believe me.

    Anyway, this is what is making for a very diffcult market to trade.

    I've decided to roll the dice and be all in cash ready to buy at much lower prices.

    I'm convinced I am right (or else I would do something different) but I am struggling with the timing.

    I hope I don't have to wait 3 years for the crash. Seems to me that things are coming to a head now though.

    Stop losses will not help as the bad news will almost certainly come out after hours, the weekend probably. I expect to wake up one monday to markets 10% lower.

  173. I really love the video, as odd as it is. Had never seen it before until last week. I'll have it continuously playing in the background when my day trading account is green and really turn it up when I cash out green. Kids think I'm weird - nothing new there. trololololo...

  174. Sp, I don't recall seeing or caring about birth certificates before, ever. But that was before we had a guy for pres who'd bragged on being born in another country back when he was a Senator. So he's either lying now, or was then. Other than that, I don't care. And I cared less (really) before the release of that fake to "prove" something or other. Nope, now it's all just too "in your face" for my liking.

    So, when does the Wile E. Coyote moment end?

    DSK pissed somebody off, surely. That steamroller sure seems to be fast approaching...

    Ol' Michael

    P.S. Congrats, Eric. Bargains below spot are few and far between anymore on eBay. Fibrillation and decoupling.

  175. @ sp


    I have zero patience for comspiracy theorists. I don't care who killed JFK, if UFOs exist, whether Bin laden died this year or 10 years ago or if Obama is an alien.

    Tell me something that has an iota of significance or might actually affect my life and I'm interested.

    I really wonder what's missing in someone's life that they spend so much time on this stuff when they could be chasing women, or at least be growing peas or something.

  176. This comment has been removed by the author.

  177. Catseyenu,

    NIA's response:

    (I had c&p'd the NIA post above but blogger keeps deleting so I'll just give the link here. ....I think it's interesting anyway..)

  178. about fell out of my chair... listening to news and:
    Pakistan is supposedly receiving 50 fighter jets from their buddy China.
    Holy Expletive Delete - yikes!

    That's all I heard ... Googled but nothing so far to link

  179. Pakistan to receive 50 fighter jets from China:

  180. @Tesla

    Front page of Drudge a couple of days ago. Was also on Infowars, Zerohedge and elsewhere.

  181. DOH!

    sorry for cluttering up the blob - my bad

  182. @Tesla

  183. Black Hawk – we may just have to disagree on this one, even though, after reading your posts, we probably agree more than we disagree for whatever that’s worth.

    It does seem that the looniest of tunes are the ‘birthers’. If someone doesn’t see that and believe it they just haven’t been watching MSM and reading the Lib blogs. Think they want it to “seem” that only the loonies care about where President’s are born?

    Absolutely there are more important issues and much higher crimes being committed, as is discussed here every day. But my bottom line on this is, out of the hundreds of thousands of attorneys, investigative reporters and Constitutional watchdog groups and individuals in this country, a few might look into whether the President has a legitimate birth certificate.

    No megaphones, just legitimate investigation. That’s all. Wouldn’t take one minute of time away from any other issue. Then the rest of the army of patriots, conservatives and anyone caring about this country can spend all of their valuable time shedding light on the Fed, Treasury, Congress, COMEX, CME, JPM, Goldman, FDA, Fannie, Freddie and so on. The list goes on…

    We probably agree that the issue should be nowhere near the front page or on the lips of any serious political contender. To answer your question… yes, I have my long form birth certificate since before my first trip out of the country. Not sure the relevance of that in the discussion.

    Anyhoo, that’s my story and I’m sticking to it but dropping it from my list of items to be concerned with or discuss. It is a waste of time on this blog. Now I wish I’d never mentioned it… but had to respond with my counter opinion.

    So, walk the bird dog and have a good weekend. If my English Setter was still around (had 13 years) I’d no doubt have her out running me around today. Miss her. Not much of a retriever except for Frisbees, not much of a bird dog (afraid of loud noises), but a great water dog and an even better companion.

  184. Ginger said... NIA's response:

    Thank you Ginger, the saga continues. ;-)

  185. @Larry

    The thing is, it already has been investigated to death, even to the ridiculous length of interviewing women who had babies born in the same hospital at the same time as Obama was born.

    But some morons still refuse to believe it. Some are apparently unaware of these investigations even.

    No amount of investigations or proof will ever convince these types of people.

    They have drunk their own koolaid and ain't nothin' going to change their minds.

    Same with theh idiotic controversy over the bin laden death photos.

    Releasing them would just make the loonies go into an orgasmic frenzy of faked photo claims.

    Then they'd say he isn't dead, or is dead but died some time ago, or might be dead, or might be an alien, who the @#$%^ knows.

    What an absolute effin waste of time, seriously.

  186. seems like the same setup as the sunday night smack down a couple of weeks ago

  187. @jimnpol - oh yeah? care to elaborate or are you just drivin' by?

  188. I'd like to hear more opinions on whether pm's will rise or crash when the markets collapse again.

    I have physical only and really don't want to go through another 35% crash. This was actually my first ever investment and got smacked right on the jaw but I guess that'll only make me stronger as I really want to become a great investor one day.



  189. Following the lambasting and fraud charges by Peter Schiff, here is a snippet of what NIA said in their PR release per many of the stock “suggestions” they have posted - From NIA:

    “AgFeed Industries, Inc. (FEED) - Suggested on November 3rd, 2009, at: $4.60 - High on January 7th, 2010, of $5.69 +24%.”

    “China Sun Group High-Tech Co. (CSGH) - Suggested on December 14th, 2009, at: $1.61 - High on January 8th, 2010, of $2.35 +44%”.


    Those two out of their list really jumped out at me. The PR of their stock ”suggestion” track record is misleading. What they didn’t present was that FEED today it trades at 1.15. Notice their PR said a high of $5.69 on Jan 7th, 2010. Since that pumped spike top the stock has fallen steadily and is today worth $1.15. On CSGH, the same misleading story. CSGH did trade at the numbers they present, but after the pump the stock fell from it’s high of $2.35 it has fallen to 55 cents.

    Wow. This is an interesting story. NIA has gained quite a following. Schiff has a large following and is highly respected. After the “fraud” charge was mentioned in Schiff’s video I suspect we’ll see some pretty serious lawsuits between Schiff and NIA and possibly some unfortunate naïve investors that were knowingly or unknowingly mislead by NIA.

    On the two stocks I happened to look at, some folks lost their shirts. FEED and CSGH. Two more Chinese frauds?

  190. @ jimnpol

    A couple weeks ago we were way overbought and had margin increases going into the weekend. We had not been consolidating for 2 weeks, nor did we have the lowest open interest in silver since April 2009.

    Just saying "same setup as a couple weeks ago" does not make it true.

    Now if you were to argue that comex settlement date's usually provide cyclical lows followed by upswings, then yes, there is merit for a choppy mid-week. And who knows how "the market" will react to all of the nonsense going on in Europe right now.

    My guess, Euro Gold takes off, giving support to gold/silver in USD terms.

  191. Silverleaf said..."Amazing to see how quickly public sentiment about silver collapsed. From 90% as we approached $49 to under 40% today. I suspect XTY was one of the casualties."
    Haven't seen any posts from Erica since SIlver prices dropped. Wasn't she the newbie who jumped in with both feet and bought a Monster Box of Eagles at the peak?

  192. This comment has been removed by the author.