Monday, May 23, 2011

Surviving Monday

Well I don't know about you but I, for one, am glad to have this day behind us. Ever since The Sunday Night Silver Massacre, Mondays have made me very nervous. Things certainly didn't look too rosy this morning with the euro getting crushed, the dollar rallying and WOPR in charge. Fortunately and as hoped, humans reclaimed the market and the metals trended higher virtually all day with both putting rather impressive mini-FUBMs on their intraday charts. With this day behind us, we can begin to look forward toward the rest of this week.

Here's a 2-hour gold chart.  It looks very good. You've got the spike down to a panic low of 1462 about 15 days ago. A snapback rally was followed by seven trading days of a beautiful looking base between 1475 and 1515. It now appears to be breaking higher and ready to take its first stab at 1525. Because that level is so technically significant, I have a hard time imagining that it will break through in its first attempt. Maybe some "news" will help it but I think it's more likely to fail at 1525 and then take a day or two to regroup between there and 1515. Then, after that pause, the next attempt at 1525 should carry enough momentum to blast through and send gold on a trajectory to take on 1545.
Silver continues to get its act together but doesn't seem quite ready yet to move as strongly higher as gold. Again, the technical and psychological damage done to the silver market was great and it's going to take a while for enough convicted money to return to move things substantially higher. Nevertheless, the open interest and the CoT report leads us to believe that there should now be more buyers than sellers in the silver market and this alone will help silver firm up and drift higher in the coming days. Where gold has 1525 to conquer, silver has 36.50 so silver clearly has a lot of work to do to catch up.

One last thing, Gonzalo Lira has decided to convert his site to a subscription service. Here's the announcement:
http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/05/money-in-blogging.html
Given the current, unprecedented economic conditions, those attempting to manage significant portfolios should give his service a look.

Have a great day and evening. More sometime soon. TF

p.s. As you've probably heard, the city of Joplin, Missouri was devastated by a tornado yesterday. They are desperately in need of water and basic supplies. If you can help in any way, here is a link you can follow:
http://www.uwheartmo.org/
You can also donate through the local chapter of the Red Cross:
http://www.redcross-ozarks.org/donate/
If you've ever wondered what it's like to be caught in such an event, watch and listen to this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQnvxJZucds
Very sad and tragic.

213 comments:

  1. Thanks for what you're doing on this site. Please don't turn in to a pay site. I'm not a player, let alone a big one. My wife authorizes my investments and I don't know if paying for insight from a website would be included.

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  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  3. Sorry thought I was first. Missed out again.

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  4. Re Trinity B

    The afternoon fix in london is 3pm. That would be 10 am EST. So lets see what happens. I have been of the impression it is bs but I will have an open mind again. So I take nice surprise and get off the train is a big up. I will be watching anyway. Thanks for the link.

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  5. Bullion might have done well enough today but the miners sure underperformed. GDX down .75%, GDXJ down 3%, SLW down 1.89%, EXK down 3.3%.

    Hopefully not telegraphing a fall tomorrow.

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  6. atlee:

    The London PM Fix starts at 3pm but does not generally conclude until 3:30-ish. It often varies by up to 15 minutes either way depending on how long the participants take to agree a market clearing price.

    If you want to know exactly when the fix is complete, you should check the LBMA website www.lbma.org.uk and you will see the latest fix prices updated when the process is finalised.

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  7. Everyone,

    I am not sure if everyone knows this or not but tonight on HBO the movie "Too Big to Fail" is on!

    Should be interesting.

    NB

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  8. Good work today, Turd. Thankyou. Any change to Friday afternoon view on oil (96 support looks strong)? I would think not.

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  9. FUBMs = F* U Blythe Masters, hehehe

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  10. The SLV daily chart is showing a tight handle on a volume dry up. I like it. Typically handles that form in the bottom half of the retracement pattern a very suspect and prone to failure. However, this one may be SO low that the arguement could be made that it is part of the bottom forming and not a real handle on the right side of the base.

    Gold is strong like bull.

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  11. Rick Ackerman said of Gonzalo Lira,

    "seems like the type of man that could wear out a mirror."

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  12. JP,

    What, she'd have an issue with you wanting to have to pay to enjoy a good Turd???

    Yeah, I think there would have to be a lot of 'splaining to do. I'm just imagining the looks of extremely skeptical wives, partners, and significant others from Singapore to South America that will greet us all if Turd goes the way of Lira.

    Oh man that one Chinese lady outside Guangzhou looks like a particularly tough sell.

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  13. Nothing makes sense anymore...there is no gravity and then we take a hard fall and bruise ourselves. Left is right...right is left...black is white, white is black and thank God for T.Ferguson. Please people STOP the I'm first crap, really childish...nobody gives a shit, GROW UP!

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  14. European PIIGS Vacation, must laugh video by BaNSaI7:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/banzai7s-euro-piig-vacation-return-engagement

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  15. Extra extra. Comex silver trades more than 1.2 billion ounces (doulbe annual world mining production on both Thursday and Friday.
    Gotta churn it faster and faster to keep it going down.
    Thats some amok-running Algos...

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  16. Ginger, some people wake up to Glen Beck too...

    Am I trying to draw a parallel? Yes. :-)

    Ol' Michael
    ...never needed the blue pill...

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  17. @sp,

    If you're going to trade grains, best to trade the leader which is corn. That is the market with the story. I trade futures but have had ETF CORN and JJG in my IRA. JJG is corn, beans, and wheat. There are others. Wheat and beans will follow if corn takes off. Not predicting this, but corn has the potential of a blowoff, depending on weather. There is also considerable downside risk. If long, use stops or buy OTM puts for downside protection.

    Planting progress 79% complete, with IN and OH behind. Should be friendly. Corn, like gold, held up well despite crude down and dollar strength.

    Not sure we get a good chance to buy the corn market. I got out last week and should have kept half a position. Will be looking a get long again tonight.

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  18. Please don't misunderstand, the new site will NOT have a fee. Gonzo just asked me to post his announcement. Simple as that.

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  19. The indicators aren't giving a buying signal yes. As I have posted before we still have a couple of days to put it together.

    Thanks, TF

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  20. Oil has strong support at 96, as it bounced off that level several times.

    Im thinking USO 38 July calls, please anyone, tell me why this won't go well. Thanks

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  21. It seems to me that the EE met their objectives to squash Silver, in order to squash gold, in order to squash commodities, in order to set the rest of the global markets up for QE3. Also additionally, to get the prices down to cover lots of shorts. So, I would not be especially afraid of Mondays just because the Euro was tanking as this plays into the desired overall scheme of things they are trying to achieve, which is QE3. It is absolutely essential to convince the world of this necessity if the whole house of cards is not to collapse.

    So, what is the EE objective for metals options expiry starting Wednesday and Thursday? Will they try to take it down further, or have they got it where they want it for now. I have noticed lately that they they do their takedowns sometimes as early as a week and keep it suppressed until the targeted expiry date passes. Notice how the volumes keep drifting lower back into the normal range that was common before the massive run-up in silver. I think volume indicates that they have achieved their objectives for now. Maybe the first of June will see some upside action for the PM's, baring some unforeseen catastrophic event, like a total collapse of the global financial system, that might take them lower.

    I think the divergence today of precious metals from oil, stocks, and dollar index is an extremely bullish sign. I hope this continues because the fundamentals demand logically that this be the case. Today was rational based upon logic and the fundamentals. Lets hope it continues. I am sick of these market manipulations and interventions and cannot wait to see the EE collapse and lose control. But, I am always mindful that we have too many times been disappointed and underestimated their power to keep this insane house of cards standing for one more day.

    Thanks Turd for your brilliant analysis and good luck to all.

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  22. What little I know about metals and trading, I learned from this site. The insights shared by Turd and the flock are priceless to someone like me, who is just trying to learn.

    I keep up with the news on Zero Hedge, but the fight club mentality is not my thing, so I usually skip the commentary. On this site, I skim everything and read most of it. Thanks Turd, and the rest of you for making this a supportive community.

    Peace be with ya'll.

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  23. I've read the Trinity B posts several times, but still I am not sure if I understand everything.

    According to this insider we should expect a spike tomorrow around noon (London time) or at 3 PM? Is that right?

    ----
    Also, options expire on Wed., what kind of crazy price action can we expect? How does it progress and develop?

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  24. Turd, you have the best short term analysis in the business and its totally free. I have never subscribed to anyone ever. If, I can't analyze what is going on for myself, then I don't need the service. You, however, would be the first person to whom I would ever considering subscribing. People should understand how incredible and generous you are being the best there is and yet totally free. This is absolutely amazing, literally astounding. I love people who go against the grain and do things totally different. You are one of a kind and a great person. Thank you for this wonderful forum where people like me can express their opinion. Your site will grow exponentially and your fame will become, in time, legendary. You deserve everything you have and will acquire as a result of your outrageous unorthodox approach.

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  25. Art

    What are you hearing about WIsconsin corn planting? As I drive around, I still see a fair number of fields not planted yet. The weather has been crap.

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  26. @art thx for all of the pertinent info.

    u have helped tremendously

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  27. @Turd

    I appreciate you keeping this site (and the new one free) but if the economics of blogging is as bad as Gonzo says then how long can you keep it up? I do t want you to burn out and quit out of the same economic frustration. I wonder if there is a way to have the new site be free but add a premium service for $10 or $20 per month. Not sure what would be free and what would be premium but it is just a thought. I, for one, would gladly pay for your insight. Better than any broker advice I've ever gotten for which I paid handsomely. Love the site!!!

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  28. http://www.kitco.com/ind/katz/nov152010.html

    The Great Depression was a big lie perpetuated by and for the paper aristocracy. This man has my respect for the emotion he writes with. He passed suddenly in December 2010 :O. Wonder why his website would mention suddenly :(

    Regardless,

    Stunning line at the end:

    "We can see the same kind of media lies today. You all know that in every village and hamlet today there are pharmacies telling you to get your flu shot. First, the government is involved because it pays the vaccine companies (an outrageous sum) for the vaccine. Second, in 2009 there was a campaign of lies in which the predicted swine flu for 2010 was wildly exaggerated and called a pandemic (a made up word). Not only did the pandemic fail to happen, flu deaths for 2010 are running one-third normal. That is, there was no problem, but instead of investigating the waste of money we are simply getting more lies to get rid of the last batch of flu shots which the public refused to take. Third, the vaccine itself is dangerous, containing mercury and aluminum, and it is far more likely that more people were killed by the vaccine than were ever saved by it. (My mother was killed by an earlier-day flu campaign and shot, which gave her a heart attack and led to her death.) I call this to your attention to illustrate just how naïve and gullible the average person is and how incapable of acting in their own self interest.

    America was not this way for the period 1776-1929, but it is now. This is the world into which you were born. Those who see reality as it is have a chance, but this is a small minority."


    Please take a read if you get a chance. This man's work has calmed me for some reason. I love the passion he writes with.

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  29. Turd, more great analysis. Thanks.

    What I learn the most from is your trading instincts -- having a feel for how markets move. You can't learn that from a chart.

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  30. Interesting

    http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/05/19/living-through-a-currency-devaluation/

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  31. To whoever posted the link to "The Secret of Oz" the other day, thanks! Finally watched and enjoyed it very much.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swkq2E8mswI

    Not sure if this was mentioned in the film but what are the chances that "Oz" also took it's name from our Oz/ounces? Not sure if that was a common way of measuring gold and silver when the book was written.

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  32. More HFT crap on netdania. Pinning silver just above 35.

    Look at 1 min and tick data.

    Criminals.

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  33. Michael,

    I really like (respect) Glenn Beck. I think he is sincere and I agree with ...oh..about 95% of what he publically says.

    Guess I just invoked the disgust of about 95% of the folks here, huh? :D

    LOL. (I'm happy in my convictions and have arrived at them as a God-fearing, hard-working, only-want-the-best-for-folks perspective)

    Your point is interesting though... I am assuming you meant parallel between Beck & NIA? ....I wonder if most people who like one..also like the other?

    Anyway.. I may get banned from the blog now. :D

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  34. Ricky, glad you enjoyed Bill Still's Secret of Oz.
    You may know Bix Weir of roadtoroota.com also has his own analysis of TWOO, also making the analogy to the true nature of money.

    Lastly, Mark Passio of WhatonEarthisHappening.com did this preso last year on the esoteric/occult meanings and aspects of the story. Makes a lot of sense when you realize Frank Baum was big into Madame H.P. Blavatsky's Theosophical Society:

    http://whatonearthishappening.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=178:marks-wizard-of-oz-presentation&catid=43:presentation-announcements&Itemid=57

    Enjoy

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  35. http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/23/gold-is-not-an-investment/
    PLEASE READ IT!

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  36. Looks like a retest of $34.50 is in the cards if Asia can't perform tonight....


    http://oi55.tinypic.com/122yema.jpg

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  37. Went out and picked up 100oz. Thank you, TF

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  38. Simone, I read that article and the author is an idiot. He was both right and [very fundamentally] wrong in his very first two sentences: "Gold is not an investment. It’s a speculation." It's not an investment; it's money.

    Due to that basic misunderstanding, the rest of his article is mostly complete bullshit. Sorry...

    Ginger, everyone wakes up at their own pace. I won't fault you for respecting Mr. Beck if you don't fault me for understanding that almost every bit of truth he provides comes in a very flavorful and sometimes palatable bullshit wrapper. There's a reason for this, of course, but I won't get into that here. In the meantime, keep stacking. ;-)

    Ol' Michael
    "...paper is paper..."

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  39. I don't post much anymore, but had to ask:

    Did I read in the prior thread that someone was too young to know what WOPR is?? Yikes. : )

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  40. Wide awake over here Michael ;) ...but I understand that lots of people here agree with you. That's ok.. ..time has a way of revealing truth.

    We agree to disagree respectfully!

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  41. Ginger, you are not going to get banned.
    The Turd has been a loyal fan of Glenn's for about 9 years. I've had the privilege of meeting him on a couple of occasions and I can safely state that he is a decent and honorable man.

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  42. @Michael. I know it's totally bullshit :-). I just wanted to share with all of you what kind of things people could read on the new york times... it's insane...

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  43. @Blano

    I Know I feel OLD now too

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  44. I am hopeful that Mr. Turd's new site will contain some sort of repository of TTLAs and FFLAs. It would make the site much more meaningful for some of us that come here for an education.

    My perspective: After recovering from the financial disaster that was my first marriage I decided to finally take control of my finances. For several years I've been stacking physical. In recent months I've been moving rollover IRAs into PMs...mostly Canadian funds. While I don't need my wife's permission to invest, I want her to understand what we're doing. I think that I've got her 'buy in' by telling her what to expect. In other words, quoting Turd's forecast to her. Turd makes me sound like I know what I'm doing. While I'm a long term holder (as in PM insurance), Turd's prognostications have helped me with multiple entry points. I am deeply indebted to the wonderful service he provides.

    BTW: TTLA = Two and Three Letter Acronyms and FFLA = Four and Five Letter Acronyms.

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  45. @ Simone,

    The guy who wrote that article is a complete moron when it comes to the basics of monetary theory and the understanding what is money. The people who responded positively to that ridiculous article were complete morons also. If this is the level of intellect of the average New York Times reader, we are in serious trouble. I am sorry you posted such crap here. It was a total waste of time. It only made me angry at the incredible stupidity of the author and his followers and that worthless rag that printed it. I would ban you for posting such trash if I had the power.

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  46. The Turd is A Glenn Beck Fan!! :o

    ...Heck, I should have KNOWN that TF would like/respect GB. ...as I'm always drawn to talent, truth, and good decent people. ..TF being no exception to my intuition there. ;)

    :D

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  47. @scott

    be careful spreading the anti-vaccine meme.

    you have to realize the amount of research that has gone into vaccinations...they are one of few modern medical innovations that have proved fruitful, the other being soap and water as disinfectant.

    if you have had the pleasure of practicing medicine in a country that does not have access to vaccinations, you will be shocked how little most people actually know about the diseases that it has prevented.

    if you take the doctors who have practiced medicine in both america and a third world country and filter that by those who are well-versed in vaccination research, you will find that their kids prob have near 100% vaccination rates.

    u may say this is b/c they (doctors) are already brain-washed but i think u would be very wrong about the due diligence put towards this subject.

    not trying to be a hater but it is scary that this is what most wealthy adults have decided for their kids! (also an amazing show of how if something is repeated by the MSM enough, sheeple will believe it)

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  48. Dani said...

    I've read the Trinity B posts several times, but still I am not sure if I understand everything.

    According to this insider we should expect a spike tomorrow around noon (London time) or at 3 PM? Is that right?

    ----
    Also, options expire on Wed., what kind of crazy price action can we expect? How does it progress and develop?

    ---

    Wondering the same still, hoping someone can answer this....

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  49. Noon london time is 6 am US I think

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  50. Turd,
    This also makes me think though.. ..There is more to you than what we know *raised eyebrow* :]

    ....You are very connected. ...Why don't you let us know when you are going to be on TV (CNBC?)..so that we can follow and enjoy! ...it's not just anybody who can get through Beck's 40 layers of security to meet up with him. ...mmmmm hmmmm.. that's what I'm sayin'.

    Just *WHO* are you anyway, Mr. Turd?? HMMMMMmmm????

    lol. Ok. I'll stop now. :]

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  51. The problem with so many people like that NY Times blog writer and the guy yesterday predicting silver reverting back to it's 'normal' value of $5 in a few years is that they see the Dollar as a constant, unchangeable store of value.

    Everything in their lives is measured in Dollars, and they cannot comprehend that it can possibly lose value. Or accept that it IS losing value, daily. From their perspective it is the price of gas or food or gold or silver that has gotten too high. In time this foolishness must pass and the price of silver must go back to $5, and gas under $1, and a loaf of bread back to 69 cents.

    It is going to be a real shock to many people when the Dollar starts going the way of the late 70's - 1980's Mexican Peso.

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  52. ok Simone, so you posted that to tell us what crap the New York Times publishes. Most of us already know that and do not read that pile of nonsense. Thank you anyways, but I should have noticed where the article came from before wasting my time. I do not need to know what the banking cartel shills write, it's always bullsh*t anyways.

    Ginger, you could never get banned here. You are one of the founding members. While we may not always agree with what you have to say, we are all learning.

    Turd, I too like most of what Glen Beck has to say, but remember when he was working for Fox News, he was being controlled by the power that control everything else, the banks. I think he was fired because he went too far in revealing the truth. I remember times when he was nothing more than a shill for the same power that we despise as was Bush, sock puppets. Anything by anyone in the mainstream media has to be questioned. I can remember when Glen Beck thought that 911 truthers should be rounded up and put into concentration camps. I will never forgive him for that blunder and treasonous disrespect for the constitution and our first amendment rights. However, giving him the benefit of the doubt and a second chance, in light of his great improvements would be rational at this point. We shall see.

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  53. Ag was pinned last week at 35+ (34+ SLV, 35+ SIV), volatility has shrunk to nada....anyone wanna buy 100000 36 calls for Thurs? j.j.

    A couple of people have talked about the options max pain calculator that's freely available here:

    http://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pain.php



    It's nice, but limited to only a single equity issue. I wonder if it would be enlightening to examine the futures options max pain, and compare or aggregate it with SLV and the other Ag ETFS.

    Before I embark with Sancho on this, anybody know what it would take to do it?

    Feel free to respond, I'll check back in l8r if you have ideas, thx!

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  54. From ZH: Goldman Sachs changes its' oil outlook to bullish, calling for $115/bbl in 3 months

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  55. The price that some people think is way too high for an ounce of pure gold right now might not even buy a cheeseburger in a few years.

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  56. Euro Gold and UK Gold oscillating in hyperdrive :O

    http://goldprice.org/gold-price-euros.html
    http://goldprice.org/gold-price-uk.html

    Just mentioning.

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  57. @Scott,

    At one time vaccines may have had a benefit, however, lately like most everything else "Big Pharma" creates, and big anything does, we have to be suspect. It is well documented the dangers and perils of modern vaccines especially since "Big Business" and "Big Government" are merged in this fascist corporate police state. In essence Scott, you are absolutely correct and all who venture the use of vaccines needs to rethink and research anew the safety of this corporate vehicle of death.

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  58. I was not trying to talk about vaccines, I do have an opinion on the matter but it is just my opinion. I was sharing the article, and the reference to vaccines uses the premise that vaccines are not helpful. If this was to be true, then his premise of people being not smart enough to figure out their own naiveness would be quite an accurate example.

    We can further dicuss on the new forums, but let's keep the conversation away from these types of stream of consciousness while using this format. I chose a poor quote to help keep the conversation on topic, please help me in not continuing it for now.

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  59. There's a 5 hour time difference between London and NYC.

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  60. Scott,

    Just think of it as part of the discussion on survival.
    ;)

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  61. With so much need for silver in industry, it seems to me that its going to be impossible for silver to reach highs over $60-$80/oz. Nobody using silver for their products are going to pay for $80 silver knowing its only going to increase the production price and have a higher MSRP tag on it at best buy. These products with silver in them are only going to get higher in price, and people are not going to buy it. If nobody buys it, industry will be forced to find an alternative metal that can perform almost as well as silver, but wont last as long, therefore people wont buy them knowing they are made of shit. This will cause all silver mines to explode at full force in order to increase the above earth quantities of silver, in turn lowering the price of silver to a more manageable price. Silver is in a "Catch 22" right now, and will be for awhile, at least until it is proposed that silver really is money by the masses, and does not get used for any industry. Gold is money. Its a fact. After seeing the manipulation of silver on May 1st/May 2nd, and NOBODY fixing this problem (and they wont), I have no choice but to sell all of my physical at current prices, and convert all profits to pure gold. I am going to wait until the end of summer before doing this, and will continue to keep stacking the devils metal, and if this market doesn't accept that Silver is Money, I will be forced to trade it, like fiat currency, for true time-tested Gold.

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  62. @Eric#1
    Looks like WI progress is behind 5 yr average.
    Corn down a little tonight. Does the market already have this info priced in?

    Crop Progress

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  63. @Turd

    Hi ummm this link is broken???

    "If you can help in any way, here is a link you can follow:"

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  64. @ highrise,

    Too many false premises and unfounded presumptions for me to tackle. Scott?

    Bwahahahaha !!

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  65. Art: How about the amount of wheat in KS, OK and TX that is poor to very poor?!? Those are astounding numbers!

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  66. @ ben.roberts13,
    I'm w/ you.
    Was ready to mention it was'nt deserving of a response.
    The intention does seem to be genuine, admittedly lacking a bit. Peace everybody.

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  67. I'll buy dinner for Trinity B at any place of her (it is a she, no?) choosing in NYC if silver closes above $36.25 in tomorrow's access market.

    Whaddya say TB?

    Per Se? 11 Madison Park? Gramercy Tavern? Le Bernardin?

    Your pick. Just give us $36.25...lol.

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  68. Highrise...you need to spend a more time studying the FUNDOS my man.

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  69. tesla: I took it back a step. Please try again.

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  70. Glenn Beck steals his material from Alex Jones. So if you like Glenn Beck, and want to get to the source with more up to date well researched news that has zero spin, check out infowars. Peace & Love.

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  71. sp, wow, yours is an increasingly rare opinion about vaccines. You're way out on a nearly sawed-through limb.

    You can line up for your shots if you like but DO NOT try to tell others here that all this vaccine crappola is safe. BULLSHIT. That is now just a totally uninformed and badly outmoded opinion.

    VACCINES: GET THE FULL STORY
    Download the report released 2-1-2011 by Natural News.com at:
    http://naturalnews.com/Vaccines_Get_the_Full_Story.html

    Are you for freedom of vaccine choice?
    Do you oppose mandatory vaccination?
    Do you opposed vaccintion requirements in exchange for an education or a job?

    Please read this special report and support this document. Please pass this on.

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  72. @highrise408

    I don't see industrial use of silver collapsing at $80 or some such price. Sure, the industrial users would like to get it for $5 oz, but in most cases where they are using silver instead of copper it is because they need the special properties of silver.

    In the case of electronics like cell phones the amount in each device is in the micrograms. The added cost per unit is not that great, and their competitors have to pay the same price. Higher prices will make them use it more efficiently, but they will still use it.

    At the other end of the equation, mines cannot just crank up production at will. It takes time and huge capital expenditures to increase production. Also, resources get depleted and new ones are difficult to find. These metals are precious because they are relatively scarce.

    I think they will both do well as a store of value to protect against depreciating paper. Both have been used as money during long periods of history. I like having both, and I am buying silver here.

    There is no reason it has to be one or the other. I would be buying silver at this price rather than selling. 3 weeks ago was the time to be a seller, not now.

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  73. Turd, The wheat crop is bad. Crops were getting insurance claims in Texas two weeks ago. Looks like much will be harvested in OK and KS, but quality is very bad. I was seeing this last month, but could not figure out how to play it.

    I hope your silver breakout call comes true. I am a bit concerned about dollar strength hurting this.

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  74. @Turd,

    Yes, been dry out there all year, now they get rains right at harvest. Is it priced in the market? I don't know. Europe is dry, I understand their wheat crop is hurt, also, China wheat areas dry. With harvest upon us, we should be sellers, but not me, I don't want to be short this market. Wheat should follow corn, so I'm just trading corn.

    Looks like it was overdone on the downside last night, due to cuurency markets. If I were a nimble day trader like Atlee, I would have bought the dip to 7.90 this morning! :)

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  75. Re: Trinity B

    FWIW, Turd posted this some time ago

    ""Trinity B": My personal favorite. This douchebag would have you believe he runs a "team" of traders who encouraged him to look at our laughable and foolish site. Oh, what a bunch of rubes we are, he chortles. Toward the end of the note, this person also implies that she is, in fact, Blythe. Wow, never heard that one before. Ole Blythe sure has a lot of different personalities."

    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/what-to-do.html

    Make of it what you will. GL all.

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  76. Good morning (evening) from Asia!

    I've read Trinity B's comment on Screwtape. I think this taps on a common theme I've seen on so many Precious Metal blogs, i.e. gullibility.

    Are you ready to believe an unmasked, unknown internet poster called "Trinity B" or "Wynter Benton"?

    So please consider Trin's post as entertainment only. TF himself points this out on his own blog - and I'd rather 'trust' his forecasts than most others. DO NOT base trade decisions on them. That's foolishness.

    As for the action, I too am glad to ride out Monday. Gold is basically countering/tracking POSX but has limited upside due to broad commodity market weakness. Silver is even more encumbered by this weakness. So any further weakness or strength in other commodities would give a respective directional move for both metals in the short-term. Simple.

    For Silver to move up with vigor, Gold must help since optimal short term GSR needs to be settled - 45?

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  77. Apologies for reading into a post which might well be pure orchestrated BS but

    "If you're buying, make sure you have all your silver ready before midday (London time) on Tuesday. You'll get a nice surprise"

    That implies to me a discount / price drop cos I can't think of anything else which would be a nice surprise if I wanted to buy.

    Be careful out there, and beware of posts from "insiders". I have faith in the Turd but few others.

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  78. For those tracking EURUSD movements, updates from Dow Jones newswires:

    1. 2330 GMT [Dow Jones] The EUR/USD is under pressure and looks likely to probe downside having fallen through key support at 1.4030-1.4050, says Greg Gibbs, head of currency strategy at RBS, Australia. He says the market seems more intent on selling the pair this time, having ignored European debt woes before when it was more fashionable to focus on low U.S. interest rates. He says the retreat may not be rapid, but the current leg downward appears likely to extend a little while longer.

    2. 2325 GMT [Dow Jones] The EUR/USD may test a break of 1.4000 again after having fallen below that level briefly Monday, as traders in Asia continue to trim their holdings of the risk-sensitive common currency amid renewed concerns over the global economy and the flare-up in euro-zone sovereign debt problems, says Hideaki Inoue, senior FX dealer at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking. Inoue says any breach of the 1.4000 level could add to the pair's downside, possibly opening the way to 1.3900 in coming sessions. The EUR/USD is at 1.4024. "With the Greece problem front and center again, we're probably likely to see the downward correction in the euro-dollar continue."

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  79. Simone - you owe me 48 seconds. How many worthless articles just like that have been churned out by the same narrow-minded, misled, paid-for dumbass "authors" in the past 10 years on gold? Pathetic.

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  80. Done! Thank you wise one =b

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  81. Gullible is right. I'm continually amazed by the wacky bullshit that is posted in this and other PM blogs and sites. Thankfully, the rational minds outweigh the creduloids here.

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  82. And in a reflection of the throwing out of standard technical evaluators of currencies:

    0126 GMT [Dow Jones] Fed Bullard says that Fed will likely maintain its near-zero rate policy for an "extended period," in a remark that would normally be negative for the USD. But the potential impact is drowned out by the din over renewed euro-zone debt woes, says Motonari Ogawa, senior FX dealer at Barclays Capital.

    "The renewed attention on Europe means the focus just isn't on the interest rate issue now." As long as the problems for Greece and other fiscally troubled euro members appear to be mounting, the USD is likely to remain in an uptrend against the common currency, he adds.

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  83. Oh great, now we're talking about vaccines?! Tell you what, when they replace the mercury with silver, I'm gathering everyone I know that doesn't shoot themselves or their children up and we're head'n in to get poked! Till then, I'll pass on the Kool Aid and take comfort in knowing....ummmm...that they don't work. :p

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  84. @Highrise408

    J's response is correct. I will add just three things (1) Read Michael Maloney's book. He speaks exactly to this on page 137, (2) Read the definition of a commercial signal failure (CSF) as to what happens when there is a sudden shortage of an industrial commodity, and (3) Most (75%) silver does not come from primary silver mines. It is a bi-product of other metals mining. Even if we assume there is more ore to be gotten, who is going to quadruple there lead mining operation to get another few tons of silver?

    Rick is right, you need a better understanding of the fundamentals.

    As to the monetization of silver - it may not occur in this country. It will occur elsewhere. Definitely.

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  85. I think vaccinations should be voluntary, then the darwin effect can take care of the irrational, anti science nutcases.

    Not sure about the children though, shame they have to suffer/die due to idiot parents who don't believe in vaccinations.

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  86. Addendum to previous comment about optimal GSR resolution. That figure is 45.68 - at 38.2% FIBO. It's currently at 43.08

    Therefore Gold's got some strength left in her. She's the boss right now and Silver will take cue from her.

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  87. Does anyone think that tomorrow being COMEX options expiry day - 25th May, will result in a dip in precious metals prices?

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  88. My wife was a pediatric nurse for many years. She said they routinely injected babies with 6-8 vaccines SIMULTANEOUSLY. That was years ago, they may do even more now, I don't know. I do know it's not ALL about what's best for the patient, not by a long shot. Big business has its own agenda and vaccines ARE big business.

    Just sayin'...

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  89. Vaccines – I got the flu several years ago, spent a week on life support. Was within hours of “rapture”. Never bothered with the flu shots back then. I could be a poster boy for them now. I don’t take breathing for granted anymore. When silver tanks, I just take a deep breath and remind myself of what could have been, and all seems well again.

    Ginger – You’re not alone in your respect for G. Beck. I’m not a regular listener, but certainly a fan.

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  90. @JoeKa

    I didn't end up buying EUR today, but I did buy a lot of CAD.

    (I feel better buying CAD as I will eventually live there and have to buy it somewhere.)

    Clearly pressure is on EUR/USD, but we didn't even make a half assed attempt at 76.75 on the DXY...so I am increasingly comfortable with the idea of selling my USD position down on rallies.

    I'll still think about buying EUR at 1.39 to 1.38, but in the end I will probably play safe and stick to CAD.

    My theme remains the same, absence of bad news means stocks and metals rebound, and the dollar falls back.

    It seems pretty clear though that we sure won't be seeing 1.50 anytime soon in the euro, and in fact very likely the dollar bottom is in for the near future (3 to 6 months?).

    (I am trading for the very short term and just hope to catch 1% swings.)

    If Euro breaks down and heads for 1.34 I'd be extremely happy and would sell out the rest of my USD.

    Medium term I see 1.36 to 1.46 as the range.

    We should see continued weakness in stocks and the euro overnight, as the NA market trends are almost always blindly followed, but by tomorrow afternoon I hope to be selling may CAD again, and maybe some SDS puts too.

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  91. I guess I should have said "a few more ounces of silver". For tons, they probably would. :)

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  92. ~~~ off topic ~~~
    Anyone wanting some insight on how to run a successful no charge blog, check out smalldeadanimals.com

    The blogs main theme is right thinking Cdn politics - you can't get more boring or unpopular than that. Yet it's been highly successful for I don't know how many years, with no admission fee and no annoying flashing neon signs; although there are some ads along the left side.

    Perhaps the fact that chief blogster and bottle washer Kate, has small waste line and firm breasts has something to do with the highly regular visitation of the clicking masses. I dunno.

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  93. I think we must all admit that this level of natural disaster is happening way too much and too often. Do we attribute it to global warming ala "algore"...noooo...do we attribute it to the "end"...noooo...but seriously folks, this could happen in a neighbored coming to visit you. I've been on the planet for six decades plus and simply can not remember this level of natural destruction in such a tight timespan. I truly do not know what to make of the tsunamis or tornados or earthquakes or volcanic eruptions or flooding in such a short span of time...and hardly a hurricane...ahh but I digress...WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?

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  94. Dave T,

    Out of curiosity (you don't have to answer), how would you rate your overall health prior to being nearly raptured? Did you get a lot of exercise, eat a lot of meat or processed foods, drink a ton of water etc?


    I think that Glenn means well and he seems like a die hard patriot. When he was on CNN (way before I was even remotely knowledgeable about anything), I used to remember occasionally watching his show and used to think that he was much much better than the other guys on tv. The problem is that he, like a most of us, isn't perfect, is susceptible to believing nonsense and gets some of his information from unreliable sources. I don't think he's an asshole, just passionate and misinformed regarding a lot of things.

    He also has (had) an audience and producers to pander to.

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  95. I came across this comment on SGS's blog. It scared me to read it, because it makes the case that since silver is used in industry (and the military, for that matter), the price will never be allowed to breach the $60 level. Can it really be, that we'll never see silver going beyond even $50 (and if it does, it will be crashed by the cartel again?) Is there any use in being a long-term silver investor? Here's the comment:

    "With so much need for silver in industry, it seems to me that its going to be impossible for silver to reach highs over $60-$80/oz. Nobody using silver for their products are going to pay for $80 silver knowing its only going to increase the production price and have a higher MSRP tag on it at best buy. These products with silver in them are only going to get higher in price, and people are not going to buy it. If nobody buys it, industry will be forced to find an alternative metal that can perform almost as well as silver, but wont last as long, therefore people wont buy them knowing they are made of shit. This will cause all silver mines to explode at full force in order to increase the above earth quantities of silver, in turn lowering the price of silver to a more manageable price. Silver is in a "Catch 22" right now, and will be for awhile, at least until it is proposed that silver really is money by the masses, and does not get used for any industry. Gold is money. Its a fact. After seeing the manipulation of silver on May 1st/May 2nd, and NOBODY fixing this problem (and they wont), I have no choice but to sell all of my physical at current prices, and convert all profits to pure gold"

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  96. I don't think anyone on this blog is basing trading decisions on anything Trinity B or Blythe imposters post.

    I would also like to say that I am not the nimble day trader some may think. Pailin boasts that success. Occasionally I can daytrade but not in the silver mkt as of late. Not enough range or clairity for me lately.

    I bought a small postion in gold an silver today because I like what I see in the technicals, stochastics turning with definable risk. Definable risk meaning nearby moving averages and bollinger bands. I think silver can go to 38 and gold toward 1525 to 30. If it gets through there then 1550 - 56.

    I also think that any rally in the stock indexes tomorrow is probably a sale. That mkt looks like it is now in a downtrend. (lower highs and lower lows.

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  97. Vaccines? Mercury? What? First of all vaccines are safe and if you don't get them something is terrible wrong with you. Although like the other guy said natural selection will likely take you out of the population anyway. Besides "mercury" or thiormesal as it's more intelligently referred to was taken out all but two vaccines in 2001. Read a book instead of repeating talking points.

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  98. @diamond

    That scare post must be making the rounds. It was posted earlier here.

    The same arguments can be made for $3 copper... or $2 gasoline.

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  99. Ricky, I don't mind answering. I’m a financial analyst by day (desk job), but a country boy in the evening… horses and some land… stuff like that, and a weekend warrior when it comes to sports. I’m an avid volleyball player, also used to play a lot of softball when I had more time. Bottom line is that I am active and I am in, and was in, very good physical condition. My Doctors flat out told me my overall condition is what helped pull me through. They said an elderly person or a physically weak person would not have made it.

    I got the flu back in 2003 when that bad strain was going around. Something went radically wrong inside of me. But fortunately I live in an area with excellent hospitals and they pulled me through. The whole experience helped teach me just how human I am. As for getting vaccines I think that should be a personal choice. But the thought of seeing one of my young kids or my wife going through what I went through… having a machine breathe for me and all… it’s a horrible thought that I can’t describe. We all now get the flu shot each year. And when I exercise now, I tell myself that I’m not doing it for me, but for them – to keep myself strong.

    The reason I’m here at this site… to try to strengthen myself financially by learning from your all’s wisdom. For that I thank Turd and the others.

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  100. Turd, I tell right here right now, if you do the same shit that Gonzalo Lira is going to do...people is not going to pay...for obvious reasons, people is not willing to pay $30 a month because $30 right now can easily be food for two days for 4 people!!..the guy is collecting $1759 a month just for ads and he is not happy?!, plus, he doesn't even live in the US but in fucking Chile!!, where $1759 is like $7,036 here in the US....Gonzalo Lira is no different than the ones in Wall Street...

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  101. ok, I look at this chart:
    http://chart.ly/2kyvqtq
    and then I see overall bearish market, rising $ and miners fading silver today.
    This seems like a breakdown in silver coming, not a rise.

    Where am I wrong on this?

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  102. Quick observation from just watching the HBO movie "Too Big to Fail"

    QE3 will commence shortly after QE2 ends because nothing has changed since the banking crisis.

    Other than that, overall I think it was well done and worth the time to watch and it should scare the living day lights of anybody that has still been on the fence on whether or not to buy physical PM's.

    Batten down the hathces folks, we have quite the storm starting to blow in.

    NB

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  103. I wonder why some people even come to this site because they obviously don't read a thing Turd posts. He has said about a hundred times that he's not going to make it a pay site.

    Even if he did though I can't understand someone bitching an moaning about it. I'd gladly pay $30 a month for it.

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  104. It's always fun to coax the blue pillers out at what is the leading PM counterculture site on the web. Ironies abound at the end of the Keynesian experiment.

    Some get it. Some just get what they can handle. One can easily spot the muggles by how predictably they react to anything not in that category for them. Many times with rudeness and anger. Sometimes, as in the case of the charming newcomer above, they might even want you to die off. Just for not agreeing with their "views". Nice, huh? Much like the Agents in the Matrix, they'd just as soon kill ya.

    Ditto those not at all ready for the matrix to be shown to them. Or to see it themselves. Those DUD's (dumb unto death) had the nasty habit of shape shifting into an Agent on the spot if they saw, heard (or I guess read) anything that didn't conform.

    So I guess they'd really blow a fuse seeing this then. Of course, just who is this world famous Dr. Sherri Tenpenny to speak on this topic compared to the much esteemed and deeply learned humahuaca? You'll probably want to check with him (her?) to see if this content has been Asshole Approved.

    Interview with Sherri Tenpenny about dangers of vaccines

    http://www.naturalnews.tv/v.asp?v=4CD1FE39DDB89814031B07E7623CE8F7

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  105. well Flaunt, is up to you to pay...bloggers start saying 10000... times they are not going to charge, like Lira said, and then one day they say:" oh, I have thousands of people reading me, and my budget is "tight" so I am charging now"...as for me?, I don't take that kind of bullshit.

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  106. What are you talking about ewc58? And what does The matrix and Harry Potter have to do with getting vaccinated.

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  107. I enjoyed Gonzalo Liras blog, but will not be paying a monthly fee to continue to do so. Lets remember, yes the blog host puts in a lot of time to keep a blog up and running as well as keeping his or hers readers interested. And no disrespect to our fine host, but most of the time the real info is in the community itself. The readers and posters are the true knowledge that keeps a blog functioning. So we all learn from one another and that is what makes a strong community ( The Host is the Brick and the posters are the Mortar ). If one desires to make money of off commentary, well start a News Paper.

    Just my 2 cents, and Turd thank you for all you do, and thank you for the update sir.

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  108. RE 'QE3'

    Is not / will not raising the debt ceiling effectively be the same thing as QE3 in that it is effectively increasing the money supply available ???

    thanks in advance

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  109. Tesla, make no mistake, if the ceiling is raised, the US of A will make sure its utilized.

    News of a raised ceiling will, at least in my opinion, be interpreted as "QE3".

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  110. Hey, I dont know if its been revealed, but is there a known "new" limit on the debt? We should have a hat-raffle where ppl guess whats the new limit will be. Put me in for 16.4 trillion.

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  111. Northern Border, I watched it too and for the first time I think TV/HBO has under-dramatized a drama. I have to think it was a little more dramatic in real life. Maybe it wasn't. I don't know which scares me more, Hank Paulson was the only one to throw up or the big 9 banks needed to be reminded that the whole system is connected like dominoes and they better take the deal. Had to be dumbed down for mass consumption. Surely it didn't go down like that right? Tell me it didnt!

    Ah doesn't matter, that was just Act 1 anyway. The exciting stuff is up next.

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  112. What, the Real Housewives of Capitol Hill are gonna all the sudden get religion the 68th time the debt ceiling needs to be raised?

    The same political will which funded TARP and QE+ is the same fear-driven political will which will ensure hyperinflation. There's always a bunch of blahblahblah best-laid-plans before the panic, but when the panic hits last minute, fear has the final say. Turn those machines back on!!

    Thank god for summer vacation business and PM price suppression timing. I'm buying phyzz all the way thru July.

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  113. Enough with the vaccine conspiracies please. Those viral illnesses cause catastrophic problems to unborn kiddos when a pregnant woman gets infected. Rubella might sound like a quaint self-limiting disease because we've nearly eradicated it here, but google "congenital rubella" if you want to see a horrorshow. Congenital measles and varicella is often fatal.

    Not to mention encephalitis in kids.

    Herd immunity is in everyone's interest. Just say no to freeloaders.

    -Dr. Blorf

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  114. I watched it too. The only real big truth was when Paulson said that the banks don't have the money, it's all trust and perception. I hope the masses that only watch television understood that part because we are in worse shape now than three years ago. Additionally it made him look like a good guy. Proving no conflict of interest since he sold his Goldman stock before he took the job. They din't mention they let him sell it 100% tax free.

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  115. Speaking of "planning groups", does anyone know anything about Mike Dillard and the elevation group?

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  116. WTI is down. Expect PM to drift sideways tomorrow. Opportunity to buy silver at $34.5 to $35. Great conditions for scalpers.

    I am not as worried with POSX having impact on PM. Current POSX strength is derived from EURO tanking. Looking at the past 10 years, POSX doesn't necessary mean PM tanking. Correlation is weak.

    POSX Observation:
    Someone is trying to build a base on 50 day DMA. Expect a push for 100 day DMA on POSX. Crude will get slammed continuously while trying to breakthrough $100.

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  117. Oops, meant to say "POSX strength doesn't necessary mean PM tanking. Correlation is weak."

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  118. I would never pay 30 dollars to Gonzalo!! If I was "The king TF" I would definately charge all of you stingy users!!! Would you guys do anything like this so technical so time consuming, with having tremendous knowlege of the subject matter 2x/day for free?? Not in this life time I don't think!!
    Long Lived king Turd Ferguson. Ps. Are we ever gonna be able to see what the king looks like?

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  119. @ J

    I wasnt trying to post it as a scare comment, I was just trying to get other peoples opinions on the matter. No trolling here folks... only looking for info. I do agree with what you and OldNavy had to respond with. I was looking at silver in a more positive world environment way, rather than the doomsday view of $8000 gold and $500 silver if/when the US$ collapses or World War 3 breaks out (looks as though both are starting).

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  120. Silver starting to soar again... was hoping for one last BTFD opportunity but looks like the train has just departed already.

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  121. Eur/Usd just spiked up, continuing in its up-channel. Lower DXY if it can keep it going.

    http://thehardrightedge.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/Picture-6.png

    Great tracker to follow on bigger moves:

    http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/live-charts/

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  122. Turd

    Think I have the solution. Keep the site free as you stated you would but only charge campagnolo. That way his prophecy is fulfilled and he'll likely get more satisfaction if he has paid to bi*ch, p*ss and moan. I suggest charging him $7,036/mo if he lives in the US or $1,759/mo if he lives in Chile. If you do this, please please please make sure there is an ignore feature.

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  123. Hilarious...
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKym-Zi3mOQ

    Obama's limo gets pegged at the US embassy gate.
    How the hell did they get this car in the embassy?

    Were there that many people in the car?

    The car bottoms out on the embassy curb.

    Someone needs to go exercise more!

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  124. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/aig-treasury-to-price-share-sale-tuesday-2011-05-23


    Looks like the Dow should be up for the next couple days. Or am I just being cynical?

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  125. Looks like gold and silver are going to pop here. Maybe a burst of short covering in a minute here.

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  126. It's the EURUSD strength that's doing it. Once that pops, down it'll go again.

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  127. Bingo! There they go.

    You're probably right, JoeKa. I'm expecting it too. I just hope it first goes up enough to hit some of my sell orders.

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  128. You're shorting ?? Man I'm so tempted to do that! :P

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  129. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  130. No. LOL! I want to sell some of my longs so I can buy them back after a dip.

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  131. Forgot to mention that the RSI on the 15 minute is already at 75+...and I'm seeing more and more long top tails.

    The last few times the RSI on the 15 minute chart hit near 75, they cascaded down a lot.

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  132. I sold mine this morning...I could have doubled my profits if I just sold now.

    Cest la vie! :P

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  133. Yea, it's impossible to always be perfectly right. It almost never happens.

    For me, I want to stay at least partly long in this rising gold market. And then trade the other part. Increase my overall position on dips, then sell part of that on a peak.

    I'm gonna try to get some sleep now. Hopefully I'll be wakened by a "ta-da" (my trade execution sound). Happy trading.

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  134. I just went short a small position on a tight stop. What the hey!
    Hope to report a profitable trade.
    Rest well.

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  135. A small drop to $34,5-35 would be grateful, need to buy more :/

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  136. Me too Thias. Me too. $35 is possible.

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  137. @atlee
    Bro, you give me too much credit. I only had one really good call last week riding that V down then back up.And those opportunities are usually easy to spot, at least the ride back up. Earlier in the week and so far this week, I've had really weak shorts that I've only been able to get out of profitably by dollar cost averaging.

    The bull is definitely getting ready to run. If today follows last Tuesday, we should get a dip mid morning (11am-noon) to 34.50 or so, then make a nice climb today/tomorrow to 36.50, not sure what the resistance will be there. I don't know what the shorts and the need to cover look like at this point. Maybe a small retrace back to mid/high 35s, then more of a push forward? Turd's predictions are looking pretty good.

    I'm flat right now, will put on longs on solid dips, done shorting (for the near term). My initial target is to clear longs at 36.50 area, reload on dip (no shorting down!), then clear again at 39.50.

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  138. @ Joeka

    What's your opinion about the price when the options expire.. is it tomorrow by the way? I don't trade in time expiration options so i'm a little lost to when it occurs.

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  139. Im currently liquid but im looking for a good entry point, is it smart to short at this time or should i wait for a dip and go bull? I regret not buying the dip yesterday at 34,4 but i though it would go lower. This is certainly not easy :P

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  140. @ Mikael

    You can always miss out on a climb when u want to go bull, but i rather miss out on some cash then actually making a wrongfully placement of money and lose a lot. I too sold yesterday with a very small profit after being way under my entrypoint the whole day and that didn't felt good, got out and waited for it to stabilize and what happens, it takes off, always does ;)

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  141. Well that small short didn't go according to plan. It was a crap shoot anyway. LOL

    I'll just wait for a nice long entry point later.

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  142. Hehe, how much did you lose?

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  143. @JoeKa
    Those early morning (for us in USA) shorts haven't been working as well of late. There may be a short opportunity right now, but it might take a few hours to play out, or it might not. The risk/reward looks like as small a move as down 20 cents or so all the way to down 1 dollar, but that 20 cents is too tight for me to short, just not very profitable. The long looks like the place to be...just look for a dip (shallow as it may be?) that seems like it's petering out and then jump in with the buy.

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  144. The EUR/USD is really high atm, how come? also, will we be seeing a crash in 15 min or do we have to wait until US opens?

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  145. Hey Pailin, good early mornin greets.
    Well, I just put in a ridiculously tight stop for myself which closed just under break even. Call it a jackpot spin.

    @Thias: Options expiry day usually brings about a small sale. So better entry points may present themselves. Just don't go wishing for some deep dives though. The metals seems to be in the mood for good bids today.

    Patience usually has its rewards. It is also usually the most difficult to master.

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  146. @JoeKa
    Tough to play short near resistance. It either breaks through or falls. All the charts have me agree with you that a short is appropriate, but if it, for some reason, breaks through that resistance at 35.75...there's a good 75 cent run up ahead to 36.50.

    Check out the 1hr chart from 16th-18th, I think we're in the beginning of that pattern replaying itself. BTFD and enjoy the 1-2 dollar run up.

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  147. @Joeka

    Patience is really hard to master yes but I get better each day. Greed has kicked me in the nuts a few times this month aswell so it too is hard to master haha. I let today play out and i'll se if a jump on the train, but if TF 36,5 is going for real then i'll be having a hard time not puching that buy button, even if the price is way higher in a few hours. Time will tell.

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  148. We're peaking on Bollingers and RSI for every chart shorter than the 8hr. So expect a dip sometime this morning, because the only other way that works itself out is if we trade sideways for a long time and the averages over time bring the levels down. Volatility in silver means a violent dip is more likely. But just because you wouldn't buy here, doesn't mean you have to sell here :)

    Read Reminiscences of a Stock Operator if you haven't yet. There's a lot of good stuff in there re: patience. I'm still working on that myself. I've lost a lot less this month on stupid small trades than in previous, all because I've been employing greater patience. Wait for the fat pitches and swing for the fences. Again, we should be getting that opportunity in the next several hours. Same as last Tuesday.

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  149. At this rate, even a dip to $35 would be something. Seriously.

    The EURUSD is coming back down...but the POSX is not reciprocating with an upmove though.

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  150. A few hours, i hope so, im in Europe so my trading window is coming to an end by 11:30 NY time.

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  151. @JoeKa
    US New Home Sales at 10am. That going to mess with prices for a bit. Also, we need to see a bounce down of XAU off 1525 to confirm XAG dip.

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  152. Turd,,,I'm new to your blog. My or my or my. I read many folks, but I haven't seen anyone do what you do. And went back to view your history....woo weee... . i will be following..thank god i buy long term options because otherwise i would have been killed. NOw here this...i will donate, can I? if your analysis keeps on track.

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  153. Actually...maybe i will do TURD trades...profits from the TURD trade will be donated....promise

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  154. Long SLV call, Still long DXD, and added TBT yesterday, shorting T-bills here as well.

    Market may go up a little here, but I do not see the fuel to keep it going. We open green and drift downward. 8:30 Housing report will be the do or die for today's action.

    And a top of the morning to you all.

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  155. Excuse my error the housing report is at 10:00 according to

    http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

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  156. Wow I'm seriously impressed with the London action up close to 36. This shows we can get there again and past it really soon. I only have entry points at $35 and below. May need an entry at mid $35s given the market urge at the moment.

    Homes sales figures could be the rain to the party though but only for awhile methinks.

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  157. And also the GSR has stalled at the moment with MACD showing convergence indicating a positive upside to Silver is near.

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  158. @JoeKa
    Almost shorted 36. Did not.
    Rainfall will come, and just when it seems all is lost...BUY. At least that's what I'll be doing.

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  159. Actually that would have been a great short position...but then again who knows. The indicators are a bit rich ATM and 'should' correct.

    Am wondering if I should put a small buy in at the S1 35.40 ...?

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  160. Joeka, Pailin and AtLee

    I went with Turd and already long. I don't need to wait for any waterfall ;)

    Any one of you still doubting Turd's Bottom ?

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  161. Morning (afternoon?) lads. I don't think the housing number will have a negative impact, everyone expects a continuation of horrible numbers, so only possible surprise is on the upside IMO.

    I see EUR is holding up well, guess I should have bought that instead of my beloved CAD, heheh.

    Silver looks quite peppy again.

    I predict a green day all around, and if so I will sell off some of my bullish positions this afternoon.

    But we could easily see several up days (barring any more eartquakes, tsunamis, floods, tornadoes, volcanoes...jesus what a year already).

    Patience will be the key. Too bad I don't have any

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  162. "G"

    I don't doubt Turd's bottom technically. But there might be an EE imposed correction. I draw your attention to the public holidays in London and New York next Monday. I think the winged monkeys have that date in their diary big time.

    I'll make my call next Tuesday morning.

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  163. @G: no doubt on Turd's fine bottom. I've been in and out of positions since last week doing intraday to daily scalps with no long holds, i.e. more than 2 days. My approach for now is to take consistent profits. The time is coming soon for me to go truly long Long though.

    Wait...wasn't there a song by Inner Circle with 'A La La La Long' in the lyrics?Bring on the cheese please.

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  164. @tpbeta,

    I did my little over half shopping at 34.25. I would average if it goes to 33.

    I got to follow the LEADER with full faith because I am not good at TA.

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  165. JoeKa,

    If EE gives me 33 I am going to use sledgehammer or whatever Turd prescribes at the time.

    But last two days action looks quite promising and I am thinking of profiting at Turd's prescribed 42-43 level if all goes as planned till July Silver expiry.

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  166. @G

    Sounds pretty good to me. I just have a hunch about next Monday, but I'm probably wrong.

    I just figure that they need commodity prices to come down more before they can announce QE3. The last raid was timed for the public holidays and it worked perfectly.

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  167. @G: good for you buddy. Great to see a chap with a stomach to follow through on his convictions. Still you'd be wise in the longer term to bone up on basic TA just to help you out here and there.

    Jesse Livermore stated in Reminiscences that he never bought a stock on a tip because he'd then need to rely on that same tipster when he should sell.

    There is an important lesson in there. Stay cool.

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  168. Tpbeta, you may have a point there...

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  169. JoeKa,

    I hear you. But how many TA's have the kind of insight Turd has. Otherwise even Trader Dan's Bottom would have been as famous as Turd's

    And, Turd is not running away till July Silver expiry.

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  170. So I sold like a fool yesterday at $34.68..... obviously was a bad move. I'm thinking a good reentry point is around $35.25-$35.40...anyone with more TA experience than me want to share their thoughts?

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  171. @Pailin,
    You're right on with the patience! I'm
    trying to wait for the fat pitch.

    Had to re-own a little corn on the dip this morning however.

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  172. hi pailin, could you open your own blog too?? haha. what would be a good entry this am for long? 34.5 would be nice but I doubt well get that low

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  173. Ok, if James Turk and Turd are both right, one can ride silver up through end of June and then roll some in Au for nice action right through the end of Summer...

    James Turk - Gold to Have a Staggering Up-Move This Summer

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/23_James_Turk_-_Gold_to_Have_a_Staggering_Up-Move_This_Summer.html

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  174. St Louis Fed Prez Says Ditch Core Inflation

    http://stlouisfed.org/newsroom/displayNews.cfm?article=1025&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=SM&utm_campaign=Twitter

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  175. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  176. I have a quandry.

    I have some $35 SLV Jun calls that I've held onto through the recent rough patch and hope to show some profit on today.

    My question is, should I close them out today and then use that to go for $35 July calls?

    The extra time seems like a good idea, but finding a good point to do the switch over will be a challenge.

    I might just wait till we get towards Turd's 36.50 target to do the switch, or is sooner better?

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  177. Whoa there was a massive volume spike just now on July silver.

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  178. just thinking outside the box: if golds resistance is 1526...it could hit 1525 and even go back to test 1500, its 200 SMA. then take over and above 1525 next time around. silver would just follow and may not even hit 36.5 just yet(today). so in other words, anything can happen at this point...

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  179. @Nad123
    I don't really do exact prices, more like ranges. For this morning, I'm looking for 34.75+, but probably just over/under 35.

    My day trades are always market orders - both buy and sell (or reverse if I'm going short). Much of what I do is gut-based...since nobody is sitting next to me, my notes on those trades are generally too late for anybody else to act on. Probably best that way too, as we each have our own risk/reward scenarios. Rule of thumb - BUY when your gut is screaming (I mean really screaming) silver is "over", dead, dying, done. Likewise - SELL when it seems the sky is only a 1hr limit on how how it can/will go :)

    This is for day trades though, larger patterns = larger ranges, and Livermore describes moving from day trading to swing trading to (eventually) trend trading. Today is a day trade (for me) as we're (IMO) at best in a swing up to 39.50+, but the summer trend is still flat 34/35 or even down to 30. As a day trade, I'll get in and out with a nice profit and return again on the next dip and do the same. My core remains long for long secular bull trend measured in years. I add to that position only when the short term trend (measured in weeks) hits a bottom. Like the next time we visit 30-33, after this move up exhausts itself. That target may end up being 28 by end of summer too if no QE3 clearly announced.

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  180. Glenn Beck? You've got to be kidding, right? Beck puts just enough truth in his schtick to cover the bitter taste of the poison he's schlepping off on the people. Learn to think for yourselves and questions everyone's motives. The first thing you should do, if you want to find the truth, is turn off the TV.

    Turd, you've got a knack for self promotion, and possibly some TA skill. You would be wise to put a lot of effort into keeping politics out of your blog/web site if you want it to prosper. Partisan political views of any flavor will alienate at least 50% of your audience. If you want to push politics, that's fine. If you want to have a PM web site, politics only distracts from it.

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  181. If a smackdown is coming it should happen soon. (35.95).

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  182. thank you pailin: "BUY when your gut is screaming (I mean really screaming) silver is "over", dead, dying, done."
    this is SO true! it always works out that way.
    Again, I appreciate you taking time to respond to questions

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  183. C'mon baby! You are sooooo close to 36. You sure deserve to rise as much as you've been beaten down and kicked around. Go baby, go!

    Hope you all are off to a great start today. I must have atleast one more cup o' joe.

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  184. Thanks again Turdmeister, I did buy at 35.09
    12 hours ago. Closed out at 35.85 as you predicted. Cheers and Good Night.

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  185. @AgApe47
    Little more spike up into 9:25, then "some" selloff from NYSE to near 10am, then houses report (negative), fast waterfall till about noon, then burst run to 36 and slow grind back and forth to 36.50/37.50 by later tomorrow?

    This would be the action that fools everybody (retail sheeple) that follow momo trend, runs lots of stops, yet ends up actually taking up higher. You've got to think like EE to make $ in silver.

    Just a guess based on where we are right now and the clock...

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  186. @JNG: Dd you make profit when you sold? If you did, you are not a fool.

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  187. Pailin, have you considered a career as an NFL coach? I can imagine you now drawing the plays on your clipboard. LOL

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  188. @JoeKa

    Yea, I made around a 2.5% profit, so at least I made some $.

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  189. @Nad123
    One more thing, my day trades always include the ability to buy multiple positions, that way as the gut screams get louder I dollar cost average into an even better position...I never over commit ever. As such I make less but I make plenty. If I had gone "all in" on Friday for that sweet V pattern that I rode perfectly, I would have cleared about $50k. And been absolutely white-knuckled the whole time. And if I'd been wrong by more than 50cents I could have wiped out my whole acct. I really don't need to swap years off the end of my life for a (possible) fast fiat grab. Eff that! Slow/steady wins, even in day trade.

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  190. @JoeKa
    Bro I'm soooo hungry for this trade. It's last Tuesday all over again :)

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  191. Brokebroker...uhhh Turd can have ANY POLITICAL LEANING HE WANTS and HE CAN SHOUT IT FROM THE ROOFTOPS ON THIS BLOG...see it is HIS BLOG!!! If you don't like it then lump it and go home. We are not censored here...there are alot of political leanings and nothing wrong with that. And actually, I think his LACK OF PC is the best thing about him...politely saying SOD OFF! ;-)

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  192. @ewc58 said...

    Buying large chunk at around 34 and holding and selling around 42-43 would make a lot of fiat if Turk-n-Turd are both right.

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  193. couldnt agree more pailin. these past 2 weeks I have mostly been trading gold because I got hit with silver that gloomy sunday. I am thankful though that I had a stop loss, some people had their accounts wiped out. so, I am not complaining. Now I have made some of it back and ready to jump on both silver and gold. Never think about what amount of money you could of had. Just be happy that you dont loose any haha! congrats on those trades Friday.

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  194. Anyone know what is going on with RVM? Bid dropped .65 three minutes before open. Now down 5%.

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  195. Short covering on open. Wheeeeeeeeeee!

    Let's see how high it can peak!

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