Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Givers and Takers

Wow, the hate and the venom that is unleashed when things don't go according to plan certainly is disappointing, though not unexpected.

Please never forget that this site and the new one are, first and foremost, about preparing for the end of the current, global financial system. The desperate events of the past nine days should only serve to reinforce in your mind that this end is certainly coming. Sooner rather than later.

Our work here (yours and mine) is about helping the 99% of the population that is in the dark, blinded by normalcy bias and distracted by their everyday stresses. We must help them prepare. It is our duty. The new site is being designed to allow us to leverage each other's individual knowledge and expertise. The goal is obviously to grow it and give it as wide of visibility as possible. To that end, I share with you my insights and projections on short term movements in gold and silver. If that is what drew you to this site, great. Once you're here, though, it is hoped and expected that you will stick around and help the overall community.

So, with that in mind, I have a message for all the hatemailers and hateposters: Please leave this site now.  A "first time poster" or "lurker" who only now joins the conversation in order to vent and complain is of no value. These people are TAKERS not GIVERS. Being lurkers, all they've ever done is steal from the information given freely at this site, never posting before today to add their own insights and knowledge. And now, without ever giving anything back, they complain and try to pass off  responsibility for their own personal over-leverage and greed. Shameful.
I repeat...IF you are one of these people, please go away and don't return.


  1. Right On Turd!

    The next twenty years are going to be nothing like the last....

  2. Amen Turd! Take responsibility people, for your own decisions.

  3. Your the best Turd!! I am proud to say that I am no longer a Fiat Slave!!! I dont care what the price of G&S are!!!!

  4. Turd,

    Excellent words. Thanks for what you keep doing.

  5. @economic analyst,

    Yours/Bob Chapman's scenario has the ring of truth to me.

    Think of this from the Cartels' point of view.

    They are essentially economic terrorists.

    They want people thinkning irrationally, and they are succeeding.

    It is reasonable to point out now that the price of silver is STILL $39 an ounce. There is a developing shortage. There is already a run developing on Comex for July delivery. All the fundamentals if anything have gotten better.

    So why the price drop??

    Just a beautifully executed manuever by the Masters of the Universe to "separate us from our money". Probably helped along by the government.

    You make money buying when there is blood in the streets. Nothing is a guarantee. But I like Turd's idea of buying time, with calls out into July.

    This is gonna turn around. My guess is we bottom around $35 but who knows. I think it is reasonable thought to start thinking about layering in with July calls.

  6. Hang in there Turd.. your site is wonderful

  7. Well said, TF.

    Just bought a 100 ounces with spot under $40. Never thought I'd get that chance again.

    If it goes lower I'm buying more.

  8. The pieces of shit who are criticizing Turd now are the same that will buy back at $60 on massive leverage. I'm going to say what Turd courteously did not...


    You are the real turds.

  9. I'll add Doug Casey's quote here: "Just because it's inevitable doesn't mean it's imminent."

    Take calculated risks only, folks. Adjust your strategies accordingly, and you will still be the winner at the end.

  10. New daily high for GG. It's rallying.And it's got a lot of upside to run. Not to mention, it's one of the only miners that actually showed some RELATIVE strength during the miner's funk.

  11. Hang in there Turd! Love your vision.

  12. Tossers.

    Where is the blog where the Metals bears all spend their time being 100% right about everything and discussing their infallible strategies? How come they feel the need to pollute this and other sites with their BS 'I called the top and you Bulls are all morons' posts?

    Challenge to all the haters: Why not feck off and create your own community where you can congratulate yourselves about being right for 1% of the last 10 years of rising metals prices?

    PS: Unbelievable but true - word verification = Toxic!

  13. @Economic Analyst
    Hmm. You twist my words. I didn't say you should sell for fiat. I just said you've made a trade and the trade back out is anything but guaranteed. Be it for fiat, food, clothing, shelter.
    Right now the medium of exchange in the USA is the dollar (or coin). Without that, you can't conduct commerce w/o converting to it first. That conversion is in flux at all times and may completely disappear if you can't find a willing counterparty. If that counterparty is my Dad, he wouldn't trade you any amount of fiat for that "stupid, dead metal". Right now the prevailing attitude among hundreds of millions of people in the USA is roughly the same. Particularly if those "I buy gold/silver" signs come down off the storefronts. Just sayin'...

  14. Turd, sincerely praying for you, I know this has to be so hard, but you know what...I ADMIRE you for what you are doing, have sacrificed and for standing strong in what WE have always believed. Thank you for your concern and compassion that you have for us, our families and our futures. You are an honorable man. ((hugs)) to you and your precious family. ....from a Midwest non investing common sense but totally not about money lurking and learning for months kinda gal

  15. Unbelievable that people would send hate mail to the proprietor of a site that offers absolutely free data and analysis.

  16. Turd, thanks for what you do. Just bought 10 Krugs from Gainesville. Repost from other thread:

    I'm currently down >$40K from Friday with no leverage (8K s/s cef) and knew this could happen. These people are fighting for their survival and will do anything to prolong their feeding at the trough for as long possible. The absurdity level in the total disregard for legality, and moral and ethical behavior will reach much higher levels than what we have seen/experienced to date, before this is over. Long term PM holders will win in the end, IMO, but the pain will be immense.

    The world's best sociologists/behaviorists are not in private practice helping normal people, they work in the bowels of the financial markets to help take your money/wealth away from you. GLTA. jd.

  17. You're seeing the COMEX close short cover right now. If you're of a mind to get out today, now is a good time on this bounce. Very likely it will only deteriorate more into 3pm with another bounce pre-4pm, but probably from a lower point.

  18. Many times while reading your blog TF, I was happy that I did not trade paper silver or buy mining stocks.

    I truly believe that the physical and paper price of silver will eventually unhinge- in other words...they will trade like two entirely different commodities. I am buying physical on any further weakness at these levels. I am no trader. Momentum players eventually get crushed...and the regulatory bodies have done virtually everything they can to crush the silver market. This has all been very predictable. Still no position limits. FTW. Buy physical.

  19. the takers are not holding any this day..can't help those that won't help themselves our their families ....fuck them all...

  20. Great post Turd. No one can ever predict everything coming our way. I just don't understand why people who disagree with a community tend to stick around and vent their opinions to nobody that cares. Those who criticize Turd should forever be banned from the new website

  21. BRAVO turd, keep up the good work

  22. Here's a little hand holding for some of the newer investors/traders: (this is a double post from the end of the last thread)

    In '08 when I bought some of my first physical at $20 - I didn't even blink when it began it's decline to $8. I kept buying on the way down and was pissed when American Eagles never dropped below $15. I had resolve because I had discovered a few years earlier about the economic takedown that was coming (now here).

    Point is - nothing has changed. Yes, this is mostly a trading site and we are getting burned right now. Money is made during trends and this takedown was/is so quick and mostly in off-hours, it was tough to make anything during the dip.


    Now we have a gift. If you have a few bucks, there are a few guys that are selling at low premiums over spot.

    Remeber - at some day in the near future, all your paper gamblings will degrade to zero. We are not there yet but in the mean time - your physical is still your true treasure.

    word verification: expro (how did they know!)

  23. Turd, don't waste a moment worrying about crybabies. In the immortal words of Bessie Smith:

    Once I lived the life of a millionaire,
    Spending all my money, I didn't care,
    Taking my friends for a mighty good time,
    Buying bootleg liquor, champagne and wine,
    Then I began to fall so low,
    I didn't have a friend and no place to go,
    But if I ever get my hands on a dollar again,
    I'm goin' to hold on to it 'til that eagle grins,

    Nobody knows you, when you're down and out,
    In your pocket, not one penny,
    And your friends, you haven't any,
    But if I ever get back on my feet again,
    Then I'll meet my long lost friends,
    It's mighty strange without a doubt,
    Nobody knows you when you're down and out,
    I mean when you're down and out.

  24. No No No Folks....give me an AMEN

  25. New(ish) to this site and it is one of my top picks.

    In the end we are all responsible for our own lives. It is good to have a few 'guides' along the way, but in the end we choose those we travel with.

    I don't think you will stop the haters, and there will always be takers.

    Ignore them Turd, there are many out here who really appreciate your efforts.



  26. People who would have gone to a loanshark at $49/oz. will not touch the stuff at $30/oz.

    People who post nothing but "Silver to the moon!" comments at $49/oz. are posting "Bubble burst." comments at $30/oz.

    These people want the gains without the uncertainty of buying when the price is low. They want the milk but not the cow. They will find another game to play, who knows what that is. But if this correction lasts any longer than another week or two we will have a reprieve from them. Those that remain will be the level-headed type, focused on the fundamentals and quietly accumulating (or sitting on what they have.) It will be a much less "noisy" forum for all.

  27. Turd,
    I am a Taker, I have rarely posted anything of value. Because my knowledge is limited. That, does not mean I don't appreciate your work. I immensely appreciate what you have set to achieve. Many people got load of money and also information because of this setup.

    Please don;t get discouraged by any post or mail.

    You have earned enough goodwill to just ignore these people.

  28. Recent headline on (morbidly humorous) -

    DJ UPDATE: SEC, CFTC Ask US Congress For Budget Increases

  29. I lost a bit of money with this recent correction, but that's 100% my fault/responsibility.

    Thank you for this wonderful site, it's given me a lot of information and insight :)!

  30. Pro tip - If you're playing with money you cannot afford to lose, you're a fucking moron.

    Your tears are the milk I dip my oreo cookies in.

    PS - Keep fighting the good fight Turd.

  31. Hi, Turd!
    1-st I'd like to thank U for link on minyanville.
    Article about silver here gave to me missing elements for silver puzzle.
    2-nd, actually, now I know that was totally right with my long covering on April 4th.
    Selling borrowed silver from lbma on spot market by miners made silver growing till the last spot bidder. Actually, on May 2-nd the last bidder came )
    sorry for my "english"

  32. Turd you are the great man.

    For SLV, C5 is going to finish soon.

    Keep the faith we will win!

  33. I want to thank everyone (yeah, even the few jerks) here for the education. Came along from day one, and I've managed to keep up with at least half of the comments. Which, considering the enormous popularity and volume and insights, has been no small feat. And one of the things I have learned is this:

    I won't be day or pattern trading; it is not in my current makeup. I made enough in the bubble of the 90s and have learned my lesson: "Don't mistake a bull market for brains."

    On the other hand...keep stacking. :-)

    Ol' Michael

  34. If you're whining today and not trading, then you need to seek an alternate money-making scheme.

    Just booked a sweet gain on GG. Going to buy more on the next pullback. Bid at 50.20

  35. I'm new (within the past three months) and I've gotten buried. I lost 3k and I'm only playing with about 20k.

    am I pissed? yes. At turd? No. More so the game that the markets play. I know we'll see recovery to 50 again, which is where I will most likely get out. I'll study a lot more before I get into PM's hardcore again.

  36. Oh, and Turd - don't forget - some of these guys are paid shills. Nothing personal. Just business - It's their job. (and the best are sociopathic) You are taking on their bosses. Now you are on their radar. Think of it as a promotion!

  37. The metal markets have been unusually frothy of late. I've been out for a week or so and will stay out until I can get a better read.

    People, please don't use leverage unless you are willing to take the hit.

  38. Don't let it get to you, Turd. There will always be fools and haters. Your insight is always valuable and welcome. Being a small fry who tries to pick a bit a physical here and there, I really don't have much insight of my own, other than my own knowledge that fiat economies always fail, and that America is simply Rome reborn, with no lessons learned.

  39. Turd,

    Your words of wisdom have helped shape philosophies. The douchebags that hate now do so only because they are douchebags. These people have no philosophies, they are mindless animals of the mob. Thanks for providing your insight and experience, they are much appreciated. Props to you and for dosing reality to the masses.


  40. This silver price behavior seems, to me, what we'd see when no one wants to play the COMEX game anymore.

    As the margin required to play goes to 100%, futures contract become the same as just buying physical elsewhere, without the risk of manipulated price declines by corrupt bullion err, ah, paper banks.

    Besides, if it's known that the COMEX can't deliver physical, and that's what you want, then using futures contracts is obviously dumb.

    Sooo, when this all ends, silver futures prices should be ZERO.

    Just my thinking out loud.

  41. Can you explain? If physical is selling at a premium why is it that people selling real physical Silver at BullionVault are selling so low?

    So far at BullionVault the price of "paper" and physical are neck and neck.

    Why is it that sane people are willing to part with their physical?

    By the way I'm a fan of the Turd.

  42. Long time reader- Love your site Turd, keep up the good fight.

  43. TF,
    your doing a great job, hold tight. It is unfortunate that we underestimated the forces arrayed against us, it come straight from the pit of hell.

    Now, snap out of it people. This is not for pussies. This is serious business. Gird yourself or go find something else to do with your time. I'm fighting with every ounce of strength I have and I suggest we all do the same. Do not bet your last dime on the PM's use commonsense. If you only have a little money buy physical and sit tight.

    This site has a lot to offer and this time lat week we were jumping for joy and we will again. Keep going!

  44. These are truly unprecedented moves in silver and it does indicate the end is very near. This is about getting the word out and preparing ourselves and our family even though they don't understand yet....I am going to the coin shop tomorrow in the name of all our brothers and sisters!!!

  45. @Terry Norton
    You make perfect sense to me. The original intention has been violated - speculators are supposed to provide advance funding to producers and then sell the contract to industry. They are not supposed to stand for delivery. That's the problem right now. Specs are standing for delivery and the metal doesn't exist, they're supposed be a liquidity instrument not a competitor for the final product. That would be true whether or not their was manipulation and conspiracy, etc. Add that and it just amplifies the violence.

  46. I for one appreciate all the info provided here.

    Many are out for a quick buck and have no deeper understanding of what's happening. I make my own contributions as well and have been fighting very hard to educate those around me.

    My latest contribution is here....

    Please take a look and comments are appreciated. It's too long to post here.

    Thx TF et al.

  47. I consider the whiners and complainers a bunch of idiots too stupid to read the disclaimer at the bottom of every page you post.

    Read Turd's page, figure things out, and then be a grown-up and make your own decisions. I've used Turd's advice as a suggested guide, not infallible instructions, and I've lost nothing on silver.

  48. It seem that there is a line at 39.70..

  49. Does any site give the real time premium/discount for CEF? (The CEF site gives the number once a day at the market close).

    What is the formula to calculate it myself?


  50. /agree. I love this site turd, and even though I mostly lurk, and rarely post (mostly due to my n00bish ignorance and not wanting to give out bad information) I don't want this site to turn into 4chan or the like.

  51. If you really think this is the end of s&g you have learned nothing from turd. If you don't own physical, the coming days will be your last chance to get these prices.
    Go out, tell your family, friends. This pullback has been so quick, what do you think the final wave up will look like? We are already approaching the 50 dma. Beneath that you better be ready to start buying in, because who knows how long it will last.

  52. @ george
    Likely the reason is that the are looking to get out fast. We were at 47 about a week ago. Now we are in the 30's and this is happening in a matter of days. If I jumped in mid 40's id get out fast too. I am going to sit tight for a while and hope the bleeding stops. This was inevitable we went up $10 in april, crazy! Anyway can't cry about it now, what's done is done.

  53. Whoot!


    and you will see:

    "The Great Panther store is temporarily unavailable. We will be reopening soon.

    Physical owners- Hold what you got. Buy more if you have cash.

    COMEX contract traders who are getting killed- use your brains. The market is still backwarded... the arbitrage play is still there.


  54. This newest push down is generating a lot of volume (again). I wish I could get a better read on what the competing forces are trying to do here. Waters very muddy :)

  55. I also have little PM knowledge to offer but absorb as much as I can and truly appreciate Turd and the efforts behind so many others here.

    I've made alot of poor decisions in my life, and suffered economically as a result. But when I began buying physical silver only (and a sm. amt of gold) just over a yr. ago I've now been able to accumulate a small stash with the goal of buying more.

    This has been one of the BEST decisions of my life!!

    So, remaining long on PMs and not getting tossed from the trees is a given, and this site has helped provide the mental balance and strength needed to understand it all. Peace out.

  56. @ Terry Norton

    You are quite right. It is mostly the leverage that makes a futures market attractive in the first place to speculators (as opposed to genuine hedgers and purchasers). The more the CME raise margins, the less point there is to trading on their exchange.

    The CFTC seems to be obsessed with keeping regulations lax under the pretext of avoiding driving business elsewhere. Meanwhile the Comex is doing it's darnedest to achieve just that with margin hikes deterring specs and vanishing inventory undermining those who actually want to take delivery. What a funny world we live in.

  57. Keep up the good work, I've been following you for awhile and you are one of the best in the bz.

  58. Well put Turd. I'm sure you welcome opposing views just as many of us do, but the manner in which some are doing so is uncalled for. In the end we're all on the same team, this "bears vs bulls" seems like a theme that we are going to have to get used to and is present in any market so it's no surprise to see the bears stepping up their game during this sell-off, they're the ones receiving extra ammunition right now. I'm more weighted on the bullish side, but anyone not thinking with a bear mentality during this downtrend has probably gotten burned more than others who changed their strategy accordingly.

    Keep up the good work boss, regardless of which way this market goes in the short-term.

  59. Mr. T,

    You are a good and honest man! Thats saying a lot in times like we live in. But I believe you are putting forth excellent actionable information. Only in Baseball can you be right 3 out of 10 and possible make it to the hall of fame.

    I am one of those people who are getting killed fortunately not leveraged at all but still very painful to live through this sell off.

    Funde's haven't changed, just price!

    Good luck to all

  60. @Palin,

    The last 8 hrs bar has high volume bar of 579,706,

    this current 8 hrs bar thus far is 172,296...

    is the selling momentum reduced already ? or still has to see further ?

  61. I have a small stash of silver. I recently bought an equivalent amount of gold. My exit strategy if need be is to sell my silver and keep the profits in gold.

  62. The chupacabra loves to flick her cigarette in your eye and pounce at around 2pm...let's see if she's feeling frisky today...

  63. Thank you Turd.

    Just bought some July $45 option :)

  64. I have mostly lurked here, so I guess it's time to speak up. Turd, thank you for the time and effort you put into this blog. I have had a core position in PM's since silver was in single digits and gold under $400. Late last year, however, I became convinced that a huge opportunity was approaching. I think I discovered this blog in December. At the start of January, I was 95% convinced that I should be increasing my long position, but as most of you know, it's very hard psychologically to increase the size of a position that's showing red daily. Nonetheless, the Turd's analysis and conviction pushed me over the edge. I braced myself and bought. We all know what happened after that.

    I've increased my personal wealth as well as that of my family, and thus found some additional security during uncertain times. I've lost a little during the recent smash, but not nearly what I would have lost by being on the sidelines since January.

    Needless to say, if you're looking to a guy on the interwebs named Turd to manage your finances, then you need to take some time out for serious personal reflection.

    I will be feeding the Turd, and continuing to follow the discussions on this (and the new) blog. Thanks again.

  65. Warren Zevon's "Poor, Poor Pitiful Me" was playing on my Pandora station as I read TF's post. How appropriate :)

    I think it's absurd to blame a blog proprietor who's offering *free* information on the PM markets if you lose money in the paper market. Just check out the disclaimer at the bottom of the page.

    TF and Co.: the Big Picture insight you provide (collapse of the fiat currency) are extremely valuable. Thanks.

    I'm going to be purchasing some physical silver today. If the price continues to drop, I'll buy some more!

  66. QE3 is going to end (temporarily) at the end of June. If and when they stop printing for awhile it is going to cause the mother of all asset implosions. Trade all you want, but realize the clock is ticking on the commodity/stock bubble.

    There is a good chance you will be able to scoop up silver and gold on the cheap come winter time.

    Don't get greedy. You can't BTFD unless you have greenbacks.

  67. FYI:

    Tim Collins on RealMoney has been one of the biggest advocates of the short silver/miners story. Now he's reversed and is buying. Buying pretty much everything I sold yesterday!

    Timothy Collins
    "silver miners
    5/4/2011 1:33 PM EDT
    I am long a silver mining basket in relatively equal dollars of EXK, AG, PAAS, SSRI, and SLW "

  68. The night is darkest before the dawn.

    Don't let fear infect you. The fundementals are the same. The action at the comex speaks for itself. THINK ABOUT IT. Why single out silve? Is it so vital to the economic well being of the nation? Does silver at $5 or silver at $50 have any impact on the average person on the steet? So why silver, and why not crude. It's not like the 10% a day moves are reserved for the silver pit only. Why not severe margin increases in crude. Something that MATTERS. So I ask you again, what does the actions of the last few days tell you? They tell me that we are at a breaking point. Buy silver with no fear.

  69. Thanks Turd

    Yeah, I am disappointed, but I am in physical for the LONGGGG TERM, not next week. I THANK YOU for your insight in all of this.

    KEEP UP THE GREAT WORK, even when things do not go our way right now!!!


  70. Question for the group: For those of us that cannot afford the Tulving minimums where do you recommend purchasing physical? APMEX seems high. Thanks.

  71. This is a concerted Psyops full court press. Hold firm and dont let them break your will. Down with the globalists!

  72. I'm down 8% in three days. Do I blame The Turd? Hell no. My fault.

    Actually, it's not even an issue of assigning "fault". It's part of the game. If you cannot stand an 8% beating in a heartbeat, then you should not be pissing in the tall weeds with the big dogs in the first place.

    Go buy some nice utility stocks instead. I like FE and XEL. Go for it. Great stuff for widows, orphans, trolls, and crybabies.

    Gotta head outside now. Tax season is over, and the wife's got a "honey do" list a mile long. Wish me luck. :D

  73. Could anyone tell me the % margin rate to date? I haven't been keeping up but was curious does that put COMEX in a box as they (most likely) won't raise it above 100%?

  74. By the way, as far as technicals based on past action matter, the 8hr RSI is starting to look pretty oversold. We're at 32.62 right now. If we look to previous taps on 30, we only get three in the last 12 months - January 24th 2011 July 1st 2010 and June 4 2010. All really really good times to buy for long runs stretches up. As usual, I'm not recommending buy/sell/hold here, but there is a point when something bottoms and you may want to take this type of thing into account for your own analysis. Should BenBen come back at some point and say "Q E III" we can expect some pretty wonderful airlifting action :)

  75. Hey Turd,

    What is the URL to your other website? I definitely have a few tips and tricks about preparation that I'd love to share... like - I found a way to make a water filter as good as a Berkey for about $60, instead of the $250 that you'll pay for the Berkey. And, it's available to California folks, unlike the Berkey...

  76. GDX very close to turning positive.... AG and GPL already are green -- a bullish sign for the metals.

  77. I have read this blog every post for months now, which I guess makes me a lurker, so I would like to rectify that.

    My take on the technicals- if gold continues to move downwards, it has support at 1500, 1492, 1470 (weak) and 1450. These are based on Fib retracements and chart support. However, gold could go as low as 1380 and still be within its uptrend channel.

    Corrections are normal in a bull market, especially one as manipulated as gold (and the $ index which I know a lot of people correlate with gold), and shouting off at Turd is not acceptable behaviour, if you expect gold to go up in a straight line, you are not right in the head. That is until the day we wake up and the $ is no longer the world's reserve currency, THEN it will go parabolic.

    I would apprecitae thoughts on the following- if you give any credence to the NWO theory, could this not just be another part of their plan? i.e. to unite the world under one world currency, be it gold or backed by gold?

    Cheers and nice to make all of yours acquaintances.


  78. What you guys think about shorting paper and buying physical with profits gained.
    I think paper market won't be the same as it once was, and nobody will trust it anymore, so why not short it until it dies completely ?

    And I agree The end is not near, the end is HERE allready.

  79. @Tim - Did the same a week ago. Traded in half of my silver for gold. Today I started buying back silver at $39.25.

    FWIW, my coin shop was down to a handful of Eagles and can't get monster boxes at any price right now. Pickings were very slim.

  80. Someone asked where the next support is.

    It appears to be slightly above $38, should that fail $35 should hold. Maybe not as exacting as you would like to see, sorry I'm an amateur.

    Stay strong people...

  81. The silver/gold trade has been high reward for the past 8 months. There is a reason for that.

    high reward = high risk

    Definition: Financial risk is often defined as the unexpected variability or volatility of returns and thus includes both potential worse-than-expected as well as better-than-expected returns

    we are playing in a manipulated market and we have been able to take advantage of that for spectacular gains over the past few months, but we can't ignore the risks involved

    Turd, ignore the're still the best!

  82. Where oh where is Trinity B...?

  83. The latest McClellan Market Report says to expect about three weeks of turmoil in the markets in May, with an unspecified "illiquidity event" occurring about May 16, with the resulting bottoms in gold and silver in the May 19 to 24 time frame. Then it's to much higher levels in June. But they expect the July to October period to get pretty ugly.

    I think the thing to do is to pick your opportunities as they become available, but keep some powder for the washout later this month.

    As others have noted, coin shops have to acquire inventory at lower levels in order to sell to us at reasonable prices. This will happen over the next few weeks. Have a little patience.

  84. You get how many tens of thousands of hits a day, and what, (I assume) just a handful of hate-mail messages? Do the math, Turd, the people love your blog! Nevermind the haters -- those people have personality disorders -- they will always try to bring you down because they're incapable of accepting personal responsibility.

  85. Turd you completely have it wrong on your post. They are not haters. They are misinformed, uneducated... educated by the media and schools to put money in the bank, buy a car, a home and have 2 kids. They refuse to acknowledge that change is here, but refuse to grasp it. They rebel. Fight. Call you names. You are here to educate the masses, allow the haters to hate,its human nature. If only one comes around, you did your job. You can't save them all. The world is changing, many people will be poor, destitute and DUMB.

  86. Economic Analyst - Very interesting Bob Chapman report you linked on the last thread. This 'old school' guy has seen much and does not mince words.

    The end of the Keynesian experiment will be violent. It will not be as easy as watching your gold and silver go way up in value then strolling over to your local dealer to remove a wheelbarrow of frn’s to buy niceties. TPTB will first do everything imaginable to steal your holdings, whether they are paper or physical.

    Citizens on this blog: There is no fundamental support for this drop in silver. It is your government that is doing it with their leaders, the Wall Street Banksters. We all know this and we talk about it but I suspect very few actually do anything about it.

    If you don’t like what is going on with the gold and silver manipulation, and you want to do something constructive for the 99% in the dark about all of this, as Turd has asked, then do something greater than chime into the chorus of “trade paper buy physical” on this blog.

    Today, listen to the link below then send a short, firm note to your elected representatives. Let them know that this is an outrage. Or call them… do something!

    If you do nothing but take this blatant manipulation by taking losses, griping and moaning, then you are part of the problem. In fact, you're a bigger problem than those in the dark, because you know better.

    Listen up:

  87. @Palin,

    I am with you on the 8hrs technical. The volume bar for the last 8 hrs is very telling...the RSI for the last 8 hrs and this 8 hrs is flat.

    Gunner24 has the monthly 8 candle 3rd lower arc buy point at the 39.70...the price is sticking to this level for the moment..

  88. For anyone that thinks its easy to keep up a blog like this, think again. Turd is making a huge personal commitment here.


  89. Grownups take responsibility for their own trades. Children blindly take other peoples advice and then blame those people when something goes wrong. If you push the button on your trade it is YOUR trade. Don't try to assuage your guilt by taking it out on Turd. Now, will the children please leave the room.

  90. I think it is easy to underestimate the degree which Turd sticks out his neck to help others.

    Can you imagine running a site to help hundreds or thousands to decide when to buy or sell? That's got to be a lot on Turd's shoulders.

    But at the same time Turd opens himself to attack. You cannot communicate this widely and freely without finding yourself at the receiving end of some nasty person or two; or maybe someone who wants to get rich, but won't be responsible for his own decisions. (The world does not have a shortage of nasty or irresponsible people.)

    Just saying.

  91. A couple of observations... People on this blog think that the silver market is manipulated, yet many are trading anyway. That's contradictory. Trading in this market is like going to Vegas. The house wins in the long run, so don't bet more than you can afford to lose. (Hoarding PMs for TEOTWAWKI is not trading, and you can't lose money if you never sell.)

    Furthermore, if the end of the Keynesian experiment is upon us, then we are in uncharted territory. Technical or trend analysis is going to break down. Turd has some great insights, but nobody is perfect.

    Hang in there Turd. Delete the naysayers and haters. Never look back.

  92. @Timer
    We're only 2hrs into this 8hr bar, so 173k already is a lot of volume in my opinion, but the second one of the day is usually smaller as it covers the mostly dead hour of 5-6pm and early thin action into 8pm.

  93. I have been and always will be someone who invests in only physical gold and silver. I have been mostly a lurker because most of the members at Turd's blog talk about paper trading which is all Greek to me.I don't understand it. That being said, I think THIS IS A GREAT BLOG! It is a pulse of the whole metals game and the information posted here is INVALUABLE. From what Turd has said, that is if he's not to discouraged from all the hate mail, is that he intends to make his blog even more user friendly for those of us who are not versed in the ins and out of the paper trade (and believe me there are tons of us).

    Mr Turd, I hope to see you moving ahead with your plans, And we THANK YOU!

  94. What do you guys think of "Silver Bullion Trust" (SBT.UN)? is this safe from collapse and does this paper help me to take of silver from the market and crash the banksters? I have most of my money in my stock account and recently I bought for a large part of my net worth in this paper. This is a very convenient way for me to buy silver since I live in sweden and we have 25% tax on physical silver :-(, Also I wanna thank for a good blog, just found it for a few days ago and will be following it on regular basis :)

  95. Question for all on paper/physical divergence: One of the mechanisms for keeping SLV close to NAV is basket redemption.

    I have a hard time seeing how paper and physical could slowly diverge. As soon as there is an appreciable difference, large buyers will attempt basket redemptions. If that fails, SLV will collapse. If it succeeds, it will drive SLV back to NAV. Thoughts?

    As always, appreciate Turd and all of the other advise here.

    And to beat a dead horse for noobs here: capital preservation. Please be careful out there, folks. Makes me sad to read posts about people losing money they couldn't afford to.

  96. Turd, The debt of gratitude I owe you for your dedication, wisdom, knowledge, and compassion is tremendous. I have learned a great deal from your blog and from all of the wonderful contributors here. I aspire to one day be as smart, studious, as generous as you. Though I'm down a bit since last week, I feel encouraged and hopeful to be given the opportunity to be a part of this community. I don't have too much experience in these markets, nor do I consider myself a trader, but I feel good about silver, and to have physical silver, and am happy to have found a place where support can be given and received in preparation for the coming currency-induced cost push inflation. I'll do my best to share my experiences and insights, and hopefully, advice, as we all evolve here while living in the endgame of our current financial system.

    My own feeling right now is to get silver while it's at these levels, and definitely more if it goes to 36 or below. As for mining shares, I'm still hopeful for them. I feel better about waiting until early to mid August to get into the mining equities again, though.

  97. Silver futures leverage on the comex is about 12 to 1. You can buy $198,000 worth of silver (5000 ounces) for $16,200 in initial margin. This leverage profile is not at all out of line with other commods.

  98. Thank you, Turd, for all your tireless efforts in trying to TEACH US FOR FREE. I am forever grateful for the insight,knowledge and sense of empowerment that I have gained through following your wisdom. I made the lucky guess and won the contest a couple of weeks back. I have only been "lurking" for a couple of months, as I am new to all of this. I am encouraged with all the information that you, along with the other people, that obviously, actually care. The haters, idiots and people that are "playing" around in a hostile market get what they deserve, period. If they send you hate mail, just remember they have only choosen you instead of themselves, as they are the real problem. You and the "gang" here TFMeteals have helped me tremendously and I am looking forward to acquiring more silver--the hard stuff--within the next week as the "sale price is too good to pass up!!". I am not a trader nor will I ever play in a market that is as manipulated as the silver market. Once the games end, those with product in hand will be rewarded. Those that have been playing in "sandbox" with the wrong equipment, so sorry for your bad luck---you did it to yourself.

  99. Tim said...
    "I have a small stash of silver. I recently bought an equivalent amount of gold. My exit strategy if need be is to sell my silver and keep the profits in gold.

    Tim don't be too quick to jump -- keep an eye on the silver:gold ratio, which is now at 38, but it was at just 32 a week ago. I wouldn't sell silver unless I was trading it into gold.

    Looks to be a great BTFD opportunity this month, much like February of this year. I'm talking physical, not paper.

  100. @Larry, you are so naive...

    "Today, listen to the link below then send a short, firm note to your elected representatives. Let them know that this is an outrage. Or call them… do something!"


  101. NYC: The Gold is Money forum has sub-forums on
    PM Dealer Feedback and Purchasing Precious Metals. Spend some time reading there:

    Basically you have a trade-off of time vs money: you spend a lot of time checking out various sources and you can sometimes find great deals (it may be eBay, your local coin shop, Craigslist, coin or antique show, flea market, local auction, garage sales, thrift shops...)

  102. Thanks Turd.

    Long time lurker, as I love the validation of common sense!

  103. It's not just silver that's down.

    @Pailin, great observation about shorts covering into the close. The charts still didn't look healthy to me and since 40 didn't hold I went a little shorter.

    Underwater traders: you know you can profit on a downtrend too, right? It's not like it makes your physical stash less valuable. In fact it makes it more valuable by reducing your cost basis. Also if you are convinced that the true price of silver is reflected by the premium on ASEs, and that silver futures will go to $0, that is a really good opportunity to make money to buy Berkey water filters and canned bacon.

  104. In and out of PAAS today. Caught a nice wave!

  105. William

    Silver Bullion Trust is excellent. Doesn't get much action just because the volume is thin, but it is well managed, and sister fund under same management to CEF and GTU, which are above and beyond reproach.

    These guys were doing what Sprott is doing back when Eric Sprott was still in knickers. There, I said it.

  106. Question for long terms dow/gold and gold/silver ratio...

    Is the condition to exist PM when we have

    dow/gold ratio = 1

    gold/silver ratio = 16

  107. If you invested 100% of your funds last week and are pissed off that your fiat price is down, grow up.

    Think long term-that's why you bought silver in the first place, right?

    If you are leveraged, you are playing with fire. But you knew those risks when you jumped in with the big boys to turn a quick profit.

    Today I bought another 32kg silver bar. (I'm up to just under 20,000 ounces.) That's what you do when the market falls. You BTFD! That's how you establish a low cost-basis (mine is now $28.55. I started at $4 and bought all the way up). In 3-5 years silver will near $150 and I will retire. I hope you can too.

  108. Thanks Turd,

    I for one appreciate all the work that goes into maintaining a Blog such as this. I check it at least 5 times a day. Our economic situation continues to grows worse by the day. I'm taking advantage of this dysfunctional market dip to buy as much as I can afford. I'm not buying as an investment, I'm buying to survive.

  109. Turd,

    Admittedly I have lurked since Feb. Until now, I have never been compelled to participate in any online forum outside of popular social media sites. The 2010 flash crash awakened me to seek alternatives beyond paper, and I have slowly liquidated my IRA into PM's.

    After 8 years or so in the corporate world I was laid off in Jan. This ended up being a blessing, as it opened up time for me to invest my time into developing a deeper understanding of what is going on around us and better protect my family for times that we find ourselves in.

    Basically the knowledge that I have gained though your forum and others such as Santa's have given me the confidence to open up my mind and turn off CNBC!

    Just wanted to say thanks to you and the wonderful community that you've created here. I look forward to being involved with you all and bringing positive vibes :)

  110. Rocky's Wisdom...

  111. @Eric#1
    Sometimes you just have too much fun here, eh?

    Dow/Gold 1:1 is one indicator to make a swap, but it assumes the Dow exists in the future. And of course the Dow composition changes over time, so that tends to skew things too. I'm keeping my eye on it but would want confirmation from other things like...overall global economic policy, trade deficits, taxation, property rights (or lack thereof), etc. For me Dow/Gold is just part of a larger picture. Same with GSR.

  112. I am guilty of not posting any comment till now, not least because I'm dumbstruck by the phenomenal level of information offered, and as such I'd be concerned any 'advice' from me on such a specialist subject may do more harm than good.

    It would however, be very remiss of me not to comment on this post. I sincerely thank you Mr Ferguson. Your work has been and is - outstanding.

    Certainly the last few days have been 'turbulent' but as any sane individual should do, I've been stockpiling physical silver for the last few years, knowing full well this is a long game. Not a single ounce has been sold. Furthermore, I won't be selling till we hit parity with gold and above. The fundamentals are too strong.

    To the hate-mailers, you could always ask your banker for investing advice.

  113. My Dearest Turd,
    After all,
    You were pissing in the direction of Blythe and Co.
    Surely you knew a little might come back your way, No?
    These lurkers are paid shills.
    Turd is da best.
    We luv yah.
    Let this be the last minute of your time that you give to these worthless and shameless dolts.
    The Entire Crew
    We are Pulling for yah.

  114. Keep up the good work Turd!

    And recognize the pattern: All good turds need to separate themselves from the assholes! Otherwise we just have a giant mess.

    I think I heard that on South Park...

  115. While today's pm lows retest. 1505.71 & 38.95. Grab the physical while at wholesale liquidation prices. By morning we'll have a self evident truth on an ST bottom for PMs before they head to new highs! OH THE HORROR IN PMS? NO!!!! OH THE HORROR IN THE USDINKer. What a waning over stuffed flying pig at this posx price on pop!

  116. Timer

    Your comment is kind of sparse, so I'm not sure what the question is. But, yes, we are in an environment where we are heading toward those numbers. We can argue about precisely which numbers, but not about the direction.

  117. Thanks Turd for all you do here.

    You certainly have my permission as a regular reader to completely ignore the whiners and hate mail. In fact I would highly recommend you do so for your own personal heath and sanity.

    I hope you new site will have the ability to be policed by some of the trusted "regulars" acting as moderators so that the crap can get zapped out of existence before the electrons get a chance to sully our screens or yours.

    Please know that for every troll and energy vampire out there, there are many many more reasonable decent folks benefitting from what you do here everyday.

    We appreciate your absolute best efforts on our behalf.

    What else would any reasonable person expect?

    Thanks Again and keep up the good work!

  118. Has anyone else have their AG/AU miner's in the green? Three out of 4 of mine are up. I hope this is a sign of a bottom. My 4 miner's in the passed have always dropped a large percentage more then the physical price. Very strange indeed. Time will tell.

  119. Well, upon giving some thought to that poster that lost 100k. Initially I thought what a shame, but this guy is rather pathetic, announceing this on a blog. I've been in the markets quit some time and taken some pretty large losses. I'm sure we all have. I personaly could never reveal making such a stupid mistake. The powers that be will stoup to anything to vilify what we all know is happining. and a troll stooge is just something they would use. This would shake me up if this were my blog Turd, but in my opinion he was lying.

  120. Turd: all this goes with the turf. Of course these pukes would pop up on your site this week: they're paid. It's all part of the Really Big Show...

    And speaking of synthetic reality, Fearless Leader Obama's OBL fiction is now unraveling at a positively dizzying pace.

    Shit damn, that story's almost as phony as the paper price of silver!

    I said "almost".

  121. Pailin

    It's all about avoidance. I really really don't want to go out and start working on the house and the yard. So, OK, just another 10 minutes of checking the blog please.

    I can avoid work better than anyone I know.

  122. Hey Turd thanks for the info. I am fairly new into pms and found your site the best one that I know of, I just want to say that for keeping us on the right track keep faith and God bless.

  123. Hey Turd,

    Like you said the underlying message is "to prepare" and honestly, the more people who understand this concept, the more safer we will all be when it happens. I'm not a huge trader like some of the people on this blog so I try and not play short term prices. What I do try and figure out is when to dump extra cash into physical and you have been helping me greatly for many months.

    I look forward to the new website, especially the idea that the community will be able to police itself much better. Keep up the good work bro!

  124. I've eaten the loss on most of my AGQ and will think about trading back up as I enjoy trading.

    From the mad profit last month I've thanked the turd, bought phys, bought preps like the Berkey and given directly to people I know around me who are being bitten by exactly what contributes to my profits (QE2 etc)...and I don't mean chump change in the giving.

    When this turns around I'll do it again.

    Meantime I use information like corn price rising causing beef sell-off short term to coach folks caught in the low income squeeze to stock the freezer.

    Posting this because I do a lot of day/week trading which I know isn't 'what this site is about'. Thot I'd share that even the rapid trading is contributing in the larger picture.

  125. pasttense - Premium tracker real time I use:

  126. The only thing green on my screen is GDX (and the krugs I bought an hour or so ago). We may be very close!jd.

  127. My miners were down pretty good at one point. But they're now back to $0. A very good sign.

  128. Haters are going to hate. Big fast up moves will be followed by big fast down moves. TPTB will raise margin requirements until it's cash only. What are they going to do after they can't raise the margin requirements anymore and the physical inventories keep getting depleted? Confiscation? The idea all along was to remove as much physical silver so they could no longer manipulate it with paper. They are trying to shake the long physical silver holders into selling so they won't default. Nothing has changed. Use this opportunity to buy cheaper silver and keep stacking my friends. Keep up the good work Turd. The haters can lick my silver balls.

  129. Silver in sync with Gold now (as I see it), gonna buy tomorrow 9.30GMT for sure

    Where is (Keith) Atlee today??

  130. @Eric#1

    Totally agree with you @ CEF. Long time w/them.

    Didn't Sprott work for them early in career?

    Anybody know?

  131. I'm backing the money truck up if we go down much further. The price cannot remain low with the dollar down and the physical supply short.

  132. I love your blog Turd!

    You always keep a cool and rational head, despite some things not working out as planned/predicted. Please ignore the hotheads!

    I travel the world quite a bit, even in some countries (like China) where blogs are blocked, so I really look forward to your new website!

  133. Don't know if this was already noted but most miners turned positive.

  134. Pretty weak rally we are seeing here. Even this morning we saw $1.50 in an hour. I think that is telling us we are headed for further drops, but I don't see them happening today. I will reload on OTM May or June puts at the open tomorrow unless something crazy happens in Europe hours.

  135. I have been reading this blog since it started and have learned somthing everyday. I have not posted anything before as my comments would only bring the overall inteligence level down. Therefore, I have been reading the posts from Turd and the rests with interest and personally gaining everyday. I now feel I have something to add. This blog does help many people like me as we are struggling to find out the truth of what is going on. This forum, especially Turd's posts have provided a tremedous benefit. Yes, Turd, the silent readers do learn and appreciate your efforts. Please consider this as a strong vote to not get discouraged and keep up the good work. Nobody knows exactly what the future holds, not even the Turd, but it does help to hear what others are saying and to learn from a good leader. Turd, thanks for all the good work, and thanks to all the bloggers who fill out many details to the complex trades that are taking place. There are many like me who learn - and now you have heard from one of them.

  136. KGC to the moon. SWEEETTTTT

  137. Very interesting fight in XAG range 39.50-39.75 right now. At least for today, we may have a good point to refer to now as volumes are good, showing tug of war has "equal" sides. Durned RSI is stubbornly not getting anywhere near 20 for me to play and make a few $.

  138. Okay don't put to much stock into me saying this, but I feel we are at a bottom for the week. Wednesday seems to be the day where lows are put in, and they have "attacked" the first 3 days (goes along with theory of the EE "raid" 3 out of 5 days a week, usually early in the week as well), leaving the next two days for some short covering and some retracement back towards 45 by Friday, and somewhere in the mid 1500s for gold. A stop right below "key support at 40 gives the uncertainty of it going lower, which the EE always love to leave you thinking...

    The miners seem to have refused to give up any more than they have already been putting out... and gold and silver finally making higher highs as I write. Time will have to be the vindicator, but it can't just keep going straight down, just like it can't just go straight up.

    What made me think this was the case initially?
    GPL is leading my stocks today...

    Revett was Approved for Monday Amex Listing... could be a good buy at these levels. As referenced by Mr Geineiss on stockhouse:

    John Shanahan, President and Chief Executive Officer stated "This is the culmination and fitting recognition of many years of hard work to get Revett to where it is today. As a US based producer of silver and copper, ***and with the potential of becoming one of the largest silver producers in North America, it is appropriate that we are listed on the NYSE Amex with full exposure to the US capital markets".***


    (I am not trading forex spot price or slv options, so do not take my feeling as anything more than thoughts)

  139. Lotta regulars silent today... Happy? atlee? Fort? Ginger? oldNavy? Kiwi? Kiyotei? Irene? Xty? Dr. Jerome? Is there a party somewhere we don't know about? Did you forget my invitation... (crickets chirping)

    I genuinely hope folks are OK, and not too depressed- this will pass and we will be rocking soon. And in the meantime remember, its nothing that really matters, its just fiat.

    Two small boys were overheard talking at the zoo one day. "My Daddy's an accountant. What does your Daddy do for a living?" asked Billy. Tommy replied, "My Daddy's commodities trader at JP Morgan." "Honest?" asked Billy. "No, just the regular kind", replied Tommy.


  141. Interestingly, this dramatic trading event of the past 72 hours may have been the transition which finally broke the Long Gold/Short HUI trade. Indeed, the multi-week underperformance of the HUI could wind up dead-ending into this week. If so, it would follow a pattern seen many times in the Energy complex the past decade: XLE refuses higher oil prices, until those oil prices come down.


  142. to those who doubt Bob Chapman this interview in 4 installments is straight from the horses mouth. The guy Tom Clancy based his character Jack Ryan on. People have no idea about the shadow government and its control in many spheres. This guy is highly credentialed and worked closely with 5 Presidents. Listen to it and then please circulate it.

  143. WORDS to Remember:

    Bear Raid (Illegal except for the metals markets)

    Volatility (read Sinclair - what you are seeing today, amplified)

    Tipping Point (past which there is no possible way to stop the tumble)

    Love (for TF does this for reasons that are beyond any self-fulfillment)

    It's nice to make these ridiculous short-term profits, but this site is about surviving the coming economic collapse. There are some superb posters here and all of them play paper, but they also all are stacking the bullion. Working the margins is risky work, and that's no one's decision but your own. Share, but don't bitch. Whoever said misery loves company was wrong.

  144. Jon, great thought about basket redemptions on SLV. I agree with you.

    Short of SLV being proven to be an outright Ponzi fraud and halts trading, I don't see how the SLV price deviates that much from physical spot price.

  145. Thank you for your hard work, Turd.

    I came here out of concern for the collapse of the current financial system, and how to best prepare for it. I read check two blogs multiple times daily: yours and ZH.

    I admit that I get jealous sometimes when I hear about some of you guys making fiat by buying and trading options/futures, but days like today remind me while I am totally unqualified to attempt to do the same.

    I continue to add to my small PM stash, and continue to attempt to hedge some security for the chaotic financial times to come.

    God bless your good work!

  146. I think your analysis is sound, nobody has a crystal ball, please don't be discouraged, and yes I'm a "lurker" trying to learn, and I've learned quite a bit! Thanks

  147. @Pailin,

    8 hrs bar is beginning to see a blue tweezer...needs to clear the previous 8 hrs close at 39.696

    39.70 loacted on the 3rd monthly Gann Arc is supporting the price of Silver now.

    If this 8 hrs bar turns out to be blue with over 300k volume, question is are all these buy volume ? If so, I sure hope that we have blue 8 hrs bar and 400k volume...

    One big down and one big up volume, usually is a temporary low...

  148. Great stuff Turd as always. That said, I've never been so happy to be flat. This action is best watched from the sidelines imho. At least for now.

    Local dealer here totally cleaned out! Lolling hard. Ebay still says $55+ an ounce. The banksters plan only helps them in the very short term, China and India still scooping up all what remains in the comex vaults.

    Thanks to you turd also I have made progress bringing some of the 99% over to our side of understanding. I've found I can easily introduce the idea of inflation as a joke, when they say something about the price of something going up, someone in the group will just say "inflation!" and everyone laughs. They don't realize yet its not a joke at all but at least I've gotten that idea in their subconscious, and commonly accepted as a real trend. They might not actually realize what inflation is yet or how it works, but somewhere down the line I'm betting they will want to know more, and then I will help them wake up.

    I'm here to join the rebellion against the empire.

  149. I am impressed with this site = while I rarely post here (but read the comments as well as the posts ) -I have posted this link several times on the Kitco MB.

    My most sincere appreciation for you efforts ... Mr. Ferguson

  150. I admit that I worked for EE before and most of my friends still work there. Now whenever I talk to them, I am having heart attack as I now understand their sheer stupidity. I realized that I was brainwashed before and sad to see most of friends are still in that status. All my recent education is credited Turds and participants here (and some to ZH). Cheers to Turd and all contributors here.

  151. All bounces are to be shorted until proven otherwise. Heard it first here. Just booked KGC profits. This has been one helluva day for trading.

  152. Pining thanks for the joke. Most of my day has been taking more break from trading. Got the oil changed in the car for instance but I didn't think that was postable.

    Did check in about 20 min ago on my trading action today and to let folks know what I do about spreading the word as well as the profit.

    Have been thinking about what I am going to say to the people who did or didn't listen to me telling them over and over about buying PM's. This weekend's events are going to mean some interesting conversations.

  153. gdxj nice little cup and handle smiling at everyone off this bottom!

  154. Turd,

    Glad you posted that clarification as to the purpose of this blog. You are doing the right thing.

    Correct me if I am wrong but the way I see it is like this.

    1. Comex is out of silver as evidenced by several zero hedge articles and by Harvey Organs count.
    2. Bernake did say that rising commodity prices were transitory. Was this a warning?
    3. No doubt a carefully choreographed event happened on Sunday. 3 margin increases and massive selling.

    The current news cycle is all about UBL. Soon the news cylce will need to get back to the debt ceiling, QE, rising unemployment, and all the other issues that brought PM's up.

    My thought is that they know how bad it is going to get and they had to ratchet down commodities before that news came out.

    If I'm off on any of this please let me know.

  155. @Turd - many thanks for sharing your wisdom and expertise! A year from now, I hope I am once again writing this message.........but on the new forum!

    @Turd Community - ditto the above. I wish I had more to share, but you all are so feckin smart!!

    In the spirit of giving, here are a few quotes from an Economic hero of mine....Murray Rothbard.

    "It is no crime to be ignorant of economics, which is, after all, a specialized discipline and one that most people consider to be a 'dismal science.' But it is totally irresponsible to have a loud and vociferous opinion on economic subjects while remaining in this state of ignorance."

    "The state is a gang of thieves writ large."

    "Governmental subsidy systems promote inefficiency in production and efficiency in coercion and subservience, while penalizing efficiency in production and inefficiency in predation"

    And for perspective from a young Alan Greenspan:
    "Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the 'hidden' confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights."

    For those that seem to have forgot why they invest in PMs, go read some Rothbard.

  156. @Timer
    Hmm. Interesting on 8hr observations. Looking now at it myself and we're also sitting right at the bottom of the April 12 fight from 42 back to 40 too.
    I think this may be some true buying, BUT it needs to confirm with at least one or two overnight sessions 'o wonder. I'm not too concerned with day crushes, those happen all the time, but we need to see Asia step back up with some conviction. Thoughts?

  157. Did everyone see this from
    "Fed unveils 3 dollar coin"

  158. Watching the miners bottom into the buy area....
    since my portfolio is confined within an IRA format I cant trade options, so all I can do is 'invest' in equities. All I do is watch and wait for the pullbacks into the fibonacci buy zones, along with trendline,pivot point,etc....trying to catch the falling knives and the bottoms.

    Here's the miners that have triggered this week for me
    GXEXF(geologix) @ .50
    PSLV (sprott) @ 18.03
    PSLV @ 16.75
    JINFF (China Intnl)@ 4.52
    RSERF (Reservoir capital) @ 1.07
    next up in the docket are

    PHYS @ 12.75
    SLW @ 35.35
    MGH @ 2-1.80 area
    FVITF @ 4 area
    GPL @ 3-2.75 area
    SMNPF @ 1.10 area
    PAAS @ 32 area
    KGILF @ 13-12.60 area
    GPRXF @ 1.00 area
    AVGCF @ 1.30 area
    BCEKF @ 7-7.50 area
    AG @ 16.35
    AZK @ 6-5.70 area
    THM @ 8
    PIRGF @ 6.45
    GGCRF @ .64

  159. Pining:

    You have the heart of a Lion. Like me (born August 13th) :-) You Sir are welcome in my foxhole anytime. I know I'd never have to worry about who's got my back.

    Dear Jesus and His Best General Archangel Michael:

    I pray that you help sustain and up-armor your hardcore PM freedom fighters. Help us vanquish these scumbags from this world, as you've been doing. Please refresh and rally your Legions for our next assault against the EE's ramparts and battlements. Umm, and some more FRN's to exchange for God's Metal at these low prices wouldn't hurt either right now. Oh, and please help Turd lead the weak, battered and weary to high ground and future gains. Thus we beseech you.

    That should do it!

    Onward to victory friends, and Damn The Torpedoes.

  160. Hey Turd

    We really appreciate reading your blog, don't stop.

  161. Hey Quintus you must be a fellow Irish. As you said all tossers can just feck off. I remember getting the toe of my father's boot to my backside when I said "feck" after I caught something on the door of the Morris Minor.

    A note re miners. I'm too nervous and don't understand put/calls/options. For me I've done well with buy and hold but the important thing is the timing of the buy. DON'T BUY AT THE HIGH. There are lots of bargains. Buy producers and good luck.

  162. @Pining...

    I've been in "tech lockdown" at MacDill AFB since Sunday.

    I'm here, licking wounds on AGQ, but powder dry waiting patiently to run it back up again...

    ... it's a cruel self-abuse to say to oneself "If only I would have gotten out on Friday when spot was at 49", but as big a hit as I took on Monday, I focus on how much I am up OVERALL and where I still think we are going.

  163. Thanks, Turd. Really. We appreciate your spirit of service.

    If I may, I would also like to specifically mention the professional "I told you so" s who like to step into the limelight at such times. They may like to think they are givers, but they are not.

    EI: (to be read in a high-pitched, annoying voice)

    "I told you something like this would happen. You NEVER listen to me! Anybody who trades paper is brain damaged! I have held physical since 1947. My bank account is overflowing, my kids are all perfect and I always win 'Yard of the month" in my neighborhood. You're lucky you didn't put your eye out, you IDIOT!"

    Here's a hint: NOT HELPFUL!!

  164. @everybody
    Take a look at XAG 8hr chart. This fight at just under 40 is very important. Also notice that while we went up really fast, we came down even faster. That's a really good thing. It's possible we may be near the end of this thing. Jobs on Friday is still dicey though, so Monday will give us a better view, particularly if overnight steps up between now and then and we can get up and stay over 42.

  165. Turd,
    Although I hate trying to type this into my phone at 4:47am, I really wanted to lend my support to you now. The easy option would be for you to just shut up shop and get on with your nice life with Mrs F and your kids, but adversity is bringing out the best in you.

    It's always darkest before dawn (just peeked out the window to confirm it).

  166. expecting a raid in the next few mins

  167. We are overdue for a bounce to $44-$45, then a retest of $40's. Everyone has gone short, especially the small guys. Shorts are being covered by the larger players as we speak, I think we are going to see a violent move to the upside in the next two days or next week and then it rolls over and retest the low. We've dropped too far too fast...

  168. TF, fellow CIPMs(comrades in precious metals)...I've followed this site for awhile now. Well, since TF had only 300 followers, and since we were in the early 30's in silver.

    I've wanted to be a giver for so long, but didn't have a blogger account, and so I couldn't contribute. Today Mr. Ferguson, I created one just so that I could tell you that I can only imagine the stress that giving this type of guidance to thousands must be like on a day to day basis. There are few out there willing to do what you do, and fewer who would even know how.

    Let the scorners roll off your back. Thank you sir.

  169. "Givers" and "Takers"... again references to "Ishmael" and "My Ishmael" :)

  170. This comment has been removed by the author.

  171. Wow
    So, I got full of the spirit and tossed in one more bid on fleabay, a bid that was way too high, way over melt, for a coin that is my #1 favorite coin in the whole wide world, and I just barely, barely got the high bid on the damn thing. Used my bid to the max, with three days to go. No way that will hold up. Crazy. One day you win one at melt. Then next day, a crazy stupid bid can't even compete. eBay is some crazy shit. :(

  172. Will EE stand aside at $40 again?

  173. @Dr. Jerome Yes, redditurds unite!

  174. Dr. Jerome

    How many of those coins do you think we'll have to put into a vending machine to buy a 10 oz. soft drink?

  175. Looks like a rally to the close, this might be the start of a short term short covering rally...well..that's the hope at least!

  176. ....Great site Turd!
    ...never mind the "static", this market is not for fainthearted sissies!!'s going to be a roller coaster ride all the way UP!!

    ...keep up the great work

  177. Turd,

    I've been around here since the beginning, intermittently reminding people that the paper trade is rigged and that individuals would do better to simply buy and hold physical. The last couple days have been a case study in my thesis.

    The biggest problem with this blog, Turd, is that it has become oversubscribed. A typical post now gets hundreds of comments, 95% of which are meaningless drivel. This thread is exemplary. Lots of posts thanking you, which is always nice but not productive. Cut & paste poetry--what's up with that? Little spats between participants. It is becoming too much work to filter through the noise to find the few meaningful comments in any thread.

    I don't quite know how to do this, but somehow you need to get people to post only when they have something substantive to say.

  178. Thanks Turd for your blog. I won´t forget you citing the Gettysburg Address which touched me very deeply. I might be shaken out of Comex silver paper in the very near future but I am content that I could qet out more paper than I put in and could buy physical from it already. So its o.k. for me. If I will be forced out I will put most of what is left in physical silver, stick to it and wish you all the best luck.
    PS: My coin dealer in Hamburg, Germany, Emporium had today a mark-up of 7-9 % to July Comex silver, a few days before this was only 2%.

  179. @Turd:

    "Please never forget that this site and the new one are, first and foremost, about preparing for the end of the current, global financial system."

    With all due respect...bullshit. This site has always been a trading blog, even requested to be so from your ZH days. To be fair, the underlying theme has always been about the declining dollar's effect on commodities, but nearly every post is about trading. I love it for what it is; don't try to make it about something else.

  180. pailin ,,,, you're the man ... thanks for your constant advice here!

    Turd - thanks so much for all you do - i read this blog 20-30 times a day at the moment

    39.70 seems to be key point at the moment, golds pushing up and i think it helping. Silver seems to be making lower lows in the last hour, i'm still prepared to jump in at 36 and 32 if necessary

  181. I should add a few words to make the list meaningful. I own almost all these at 1x or 1.5x
    positions, with about 50% cash dry powder to buy more at these prices,in the buy zone,from technical analysis.
    I'm not overbought in anything,so I can afford to add more to my positions. I'm calculating this will be an ok buy zone....but summer is coming,and any geopolitical disasters that loom on the horizon unforseen,anything that looks good now might be much cheaper later on in the year.I bet many folks thought buying SLW at 40
    was a bargain. I'm looking for silver at 38 area
    AG (first majestic) at 15. that sort of thing.
    I have to imagine bloggers here are well invested already in the miners.
    My favorites are AG

  182. Hey TF,

    I understand and agree with what you are doing. You are A-OKAY in my book. Keep up the great work and can't wait to see your new site!

    I listened to the whole two-hour interview and recommend it highly. I would have listed more closedly to the caution you advised about AGQ.

  183. Turd, I totally agree with you
    Congratulations to the excellent work and dedication
    come on, we have to keep filling our pockets
    I follow your advice from
    Madrid Spain
    Thank you very much

  184. Bags of junk silver. What's a good spot price for a big one? And does it matter if the junk contents are generic or specific coins, i.e, mercury dimes, peace dollars, pre-64 quarters, etc.

    Not buying yet, but I will use this correction to buy.

  185. I am concerned that the large traders let silver run up from 3:30 to 4 tempting people like me to go long with some SLV calls for the night. Then they attack in the off hours while I cannot exit. Since I am not trading futures all night (not that I could dodge their attacks anyway), I will stay out until the move back up is confirmed. So what if I miss out on the first couple of dollars of an upswing.

    Perhaps a bunch. hyperinflation will be a bitch.

  186. Folks, please make sure you understand that paper gold/silvers like futures/ETFs/options are leveraged at the ratio of 1 to 10 still and can be printed to unlimited quantity. That's what's driving recent parabolic rise and crash. If you put your money in these stuff, be aware that you are taking huge risk. Be warned, unless you are professional trader, there is higher chance that you will go bankrupt than making fortune by betting on these stuff. I am still trying as I have some capital i can afford to lose and I am trying to be pro trader:)

    So avoid this gambling and buy only real stuff of limited quantity:
    -Best choice is always physicals
    -mining stocks. there is limited amount of mining shares. So don’t complain that mining share don’t follow the parabolic rise of paper contracts. Do you own diligence and hold these for years.

  187. Oh, right, so now someone is going to tell Turd what is at the heart of his blog, and in his heart.

    Just let it go Turd, no use addressing such as that.

  188. John,

    What's your entry point for AG?

  189. @Pailin,

    You know I am tracking this sub cycle 6-2 which started from the low of the Japan Earthquake on 17 Mar 11.

    I divided sub cycle 6-2 into 3 phases,

    phase 1 (labeled as 6-2-1) was from 17 Mar 11 to 28 Mar 11
    6 tds up and 3 tds down, total 9 tds

    phase 2 (labeled as 6-2-2) was from 29 Mar 11 to 12 Apr 11
    10 td up and 1 td down, total 11 tds

    phase 3 (labeled as 6-2-3) was from 13 Apr 11 to 5 May 11 ?? (yet to be confirmed !!)
    9 td up and 7 td down, total 16 tds

    (td = trading day)

    Taken as a whole, phase 1, 2 and 3 will complete sub cycle 6-2.

    My sub cycle 6-1 was measured from 28 Jan 11 to 16 Mar 11.

    If 6-2 is completed, we should be expecting sub cycle 6-3 to start soon....

    completion of 6-1, 6-2 and 6-3 will complete cycle 6 which is a 6 months cycle from 28 Jan 11.

  190. Turd: I follow the site, but don't comment often at all. That said, the negativity on PMs right now blows my mind. I've been taking some cracks at work due to falling silver prices. "Have you lost your shirt yet?" No sir, not at all. All I can say the fundamentals for PM investment have not changed, nor has my investment strategy. I am waiting to see what happens June 13th as we enter a new wave cycle(per Martin Armstrong)... I'm not sure if we've seen the bottom yet. All said can't see a better investment out there than PMs.

  191. Here, it is a nickel CRV for drink containers. Does anyone think one day we could buy that same drink for a nickel (these nickels ;)

    A nickel for your thoughts...

  192. SSK, Tulving has good prices on junk silver (assuming you want to buy $1,000 face value)

  193. @ Pining et al.

    Taking a break and playing golf today.

    A young boy enters a barber shop and the barber whispers to his customer, "This is the dumbest kid in the world. Watch while I prove it to you."
    The barber puts a dollar bill in one hand and two quarters in the other, then calls the boy over and asks, "Which do you want, son?" The boy takes the quarters and leaves.
    "What did I tell you?" said the barber. "That kid never learns!"
    Later, when the customer leaves, he sees the same young boy coming out of the ice cream store. "Hey son, may I ask you a question? Why did you take the quarters instead of the dollar bill?"
    The boy licked his cone and replied, "Because the day I take the dollar, the game's over!"

  194. johnboatcat:
    Thanks for the premium tracker info.