Sorry for my tardiness this morning. Mrs F is opening another yogurt store next week and the details are requiring considerable attention. I'll dispense with some of the usual text and give you the main points to watch.
The main show for the rest of this week will be the dollar. It seems to have found a temporary floor around 73 on the June. Next will come some "surprisingly optimistic economic data" to give it the necessary fuel for a bounce toward 74. ADP tomorrow will be first. Regardless of the number, the keynesian shills will spin it as a positive. The big deal will be the BLS BS on Friday. After the revelation last week that the Fed has made their choice to sacrifice the dollar at the expense of the long bond, any and every opportunity will be taken to squeeze dollar shorts and manipulate the dollar higher. I expect this on Friday. The POSX could even extend through 74 and toward 74.50.
Dollar strength will certainly have a negative impact on crude and the metals so we need to plan ahead so that we are ready to do some dip buying. In crude, any move below 111, toward 110.50, looks like a great buying opportunity. What's nice is that you can comfortably have a very tight stop, too, as a move down through 110.50 would signal a move toward 108.
So, where am I looking to buy the PMs? First as an update, I sold half of my June 1550 gold calls at almost the top yesterday morning, so I feel pretty good about that. I also sold two July 52 silvers, thereby creating a spread against my July 50. Feel pretty good about that, too. This has left me with a wad of cash that is burning a hole in my pocket. But, I wait. In gold, I'm waiting for a dip toward 1525.
In silver, I think its pretty clear now that a test of the Sunday evening panic lows of 42.20 is coming. Maybe as soon as later today. I expect a bounce there and that may be it but I doubt it. Momentum now is to the downside in silver so it looks like even further weakness is coming. Combine that with the short-term dollar strength that I expect later this week and I think we're going to get a look at 40. If you miss it, don't dismay. Next week, we'll probably get a re-test of whatever the bottom ends up being before basing and heading higher into the end of the month and early June.
OK, that's it for now.
Be patient.
Don't despair.
Time and fundos are on our side.
We are still winning. TF
great thanks turd
ReplyDeleteThank you Turd for providing that larger perspective (3-10 days) that we have to keep our eye on. I get too engrossed in 1 min and 5 min charts and really appreciate the big picture you provide. That is what I need to make sensible trading decisions.
ReplyDeleteGood luck with the new opening Turd.
ReplyDeletePosting from previous thread - anyone switching out of PSLV? Down much more than AGQ and SLV today. Bleeding money over here
ReplyDeleteTurd, thanks. You still seeing 65-70 in June ?
ReplyDeleteI'm liking it. The miners are all approaching oversold while the metals are consolidating. I'm betting that the mining shares will finally take off like a cumulative rocket on the metals' next leg up. And this time around, I'm unloading my shares when they all go overbought. I didn't do that last time, which cost me loads of profit. Recent experience has taught me that everything between overbought and oversold is risky as hell. RSI is the key.
ReplyDeleteIf I'm wrong, I'm done with mining stocks. Easy enough.
First...to mention Canned Bacon!
ReplyDeleteQuick question: at the proposed buy zone (40-42) does anyone expect Ag to consolidate around that level for a few days or just shoot right back immediately?
ReplyDeleteWhy even buy paper silver anymore? Comex has it figured out; raise margins a few times in rapid succession until you get an ugly looking chart and a sell-off, rinse and repeat.
ReplyDeleteI'm waiting for the low-mid $30s before piling into physical. I liquidated all my positions in gold and silver and am sitting on cash. Gold will fare better you'd have to think, but silver looks in for a right raping.
The answer is obvious, but why would the COMEX prefer to punish those who are attempting to BUY a commodity they want but don't have, rather than those who are SELLING a commodity they don't have? Hmmm..
Mammoth
ReplyDeleteBoo-yah!!
hungry now....
A shiny new Yogurt store to help celebrate Mrs. F's birthday. And a new wad of cash in Turd's pocket.
ReplyDeleteMan I like the way the Ferguson's roll.
neil: Thanks for the reminder. We're starting from a lower spot than where I'd expected so I'll probably have to adjust the target lower, too. $60, maybe? I'll let you know once we've turned the corner.
ReplyDelete@JoeKa, I'll get lambasted here for saying this but I expect it to move down through $40...perhaps not on the first run, but $40 is a number the shorts would love to see us fall through because there is a lot more room to fall after $40. I'm moving into physical, but not until we're in the mid-$30s.
ReplyDeleteThe CME knows they have a functional weapon in the form of quick-fire margin increases. What is to stop them from using it every time silver rises more than 5%? It's only by starving out the physical that paper markets will explode...and who wants to be in the paper market when that happens? The real money then will be in physical.
Turd,
ReplyDeleteI think your call is spot on.
Folks, this next dip is going to create the opportunity of a lifetime. Please keep your powder dry because when the PMs reverse, they will go up hard and mining shares will go with them.
Do not get taken out here and please be careful with margin.
Right now I feel like a deer in headlights. I'm long May 46, 47 and 50 calls, and July 50 calls. Just when I thought I was learning something. 'sigh' Do I hang on with 2-1/2 weeks left, or cut my losses. Probably be to skeert to buy back in.
ReplyDeleteOn an intersting note, my brother-in-law had a 50th b-day party and someone gave him a big card with 50 Kennedy halves taped on it, that they had picked up at their credit union. 5 were 1964's. The look of suprise and disappointment on the card givers face when I explained how and why those coins were worth $15 each was classic.
I went to 8 banks yesterday asking for half dollars, and nobody had any. Will try and make a habit of asking tellers
For this amatuer investor, right now looks like the time to just stand back and not even look at the PM price charts more than twice a day.
ReplyDeleteWhile that old adage, "Sell in May and walk away" may ring true, I will instead just put my junk Silver in a dark cubbyhole and leave it sit for a while.
(Except for that beautiful Walking Liberty half-dollar, which I carry around both for good luck and to show others what Real Money looks like.)
Cheers to all!
-Mammoth
From the previous thread...
ReplyDelete@BBL
RSI can be useful in many scenarios, just keep in mind that my 20/50/80 spread works for me on the 5min chart. Haven't tested it on others, so there's danger there until you test and prove it out.
@Tyler
PSLV is going down faster because the premium is compressing. It makes sense that it would in a multi-day down market in silver as the euphoria evaporates. Optimistic folks pay a premium, depressed folks sell a premium. I hold because I want the long term exposure and won't do SLV.
When I wrote I wasn't looking at PSLV, I meant I don't want to know how bad it is, like not opening your brokerage statement for Q4 2008. There just wasn't any good news in there :)
For Tyler and other new traders,
ReplyDeleteI would like to respectfully submit that you should know what your exit strategy is before you make the trade, not after. In other words, if you don't know where you're gonna get out, don't get in.
Just my .02, adjusted for inflation.
There are no Hunt brothers for the exchange officials to lean on to break the bulls. The buying is dispersed and world wide. They can raise the Comex margins to 100% and it will not affect the buying of bullion. But it may open up a yawning chasm between the paper markets and the physical markets that will be harder and harder to ignore.
ReplyDeleteFighting the paper price is becoming counter-productive, because it opens the door to additional buying of physical bullion from Asia.
The premium on PSLV will probably evaporate over time. That is probably why Sprott sold. It got much too rich for its valuation. Look at CEF if you want to buy. It is currently selling at a great discount - not to say that it can't go lower. Paying a premium like that when a bull is running is just asking for trouble. You might as well buy the underlying physical yourself and pay the premium there and not have to worry about dealing with paper.
ReplyDeleteThe miners are extremely undervalued and that should begin to correct once we see some actual numbers come out next week from the big boys (SLW, SVM).
The question of further margin hikes is one I'm afraid no one can answer definitively, but anybody out there, including Turd, have any speculation on what the disadvantages of further hikes would be to the Crimex, if any, that is?
ReplyDeleteAt this point, I feel like hikes like the last ones are the biggest threats to the rise of silver up to where we thought it would go this week before hikes.
Thoughts?
Blano,
ReplyDeleteGood advice. Wish I had followed it more closely.
Shill,
I noticed this comment last night. I think you are right on target.
@ stephen
ReplyDeleteI use a 16 on silver. I can't advise you on a short sale in a mkt that has already been nuked. Even though there is likely more pain, I think there is so much more upside than downside. Spreading up a loss is a no no in my book. Getting short anything was best done like turd did on yesterday's highs around 47. I would rather take my lumps and survive to play again rather than dig a deeper hole. You will be surprised how much clearer your thought process will be when that gaping wound is off your radar screen.
@Wille, they can keep hiking margins. What they'll be doing, THANKFULLY, is pushing folks like me and you into physical which seriously depletes the amount of metal out there.
ReplyDeleteAs the price on paper drops, and there is less physical available, dealers WILL GO TO THE COMEX AND STAND FOR DELIVERY. Speculators, all of us included, are bad...butt in the end, if people who actually want silver are driven into the physical market to buy it, then we'll see a complete disconnect as premiums in physical go up, paper prices drop to an equilibrium, and then a complete ROASTING of the shorts as dealers and big buyers stand for delivery of the metal.
It seems the CME has found an "answer" to the price appreciation and I suspect they'll use it as a weapon to cut the price lower and lower but price discovery in the physical market will end up crushing them in the end.
The Fed is using our money to lower silver prices so that the Chinese, Russians, etc. can buy it cheap and all at taxpayers expense.
ReplyDeletehttp://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/05/03/silver-pure-criminality/
I kept hearing silver miner shares are not moving in sync with the silver price movement up.
ReplyDeleteI wonder did those mine owners hedge their silver selling price at too low a price previously when silver was running up? If so, the market might be pricing in this consideration into their share prices, as those silver mining operations might not be that profitable given where silver price is now.
Just a passing thought on silver mine shares.
Thanks Blano and lj. Will have to see about moving over to something else
ReplyDeleteAs someone who has been buying since the $12 area Anything above $40 works fine for me. But I have not been scared away and I am still buying at these higher prices. So a little consolidation works for me as I can add to my physical holdings on the cheap if you will. Consolidation is a must in a bull market. Patience prevails.
ReplyDeleteWell, no 'opportunity of a lifetime' developing for me here. I'm not going to exit AGQ with these tremendous losses (bought at silver spot 48) just to find that I can't buy back quickly enough when silver unexpectedly rallies during the 3 day settlement period. I'm just going to follow it down, load up on more shares with whatever cash I can scrounge together, then follow it back up. Time value of money be damned, same goes for lost opportunities.
ReplyDeleteCrying about lost opportunities is probably the most useless activity there is. Every day 1000% of opportunities and possible profits rush past me; I'd be filling swimming pools were I to let all that affect me. I'd also be stupid not to learn from mistakes, but self-chastisement is not a road to happiness.
I'm not going to torture myself by paying close attention during the entire coming correction. The price can go where ever it wants to, in a month or so it'll be back up anyway. I'll throw some more dry powder down the pit at some point, but that's it.
I'd love to say 'see you in a month'; but following the market has become almost an addiction so I'll be around.
SLW is oversold and should get more oversold...but I have bot a core here.....80% cash and TRYING to be patient....watch for volume pickup and a green miners day when the overall market is red.......that would markd the turn...in miners GFI very nice here may get "nicer"
ReplyDeleteSo, I was in Rome over the weekend and decided to check-out St. Peter’s Square and the Vatican - maybe catch a glimpse of the pope. (I’m not Catholic, but when in Rome……) The crowds were huge and suddenly the cheers started erupting as the balcony doors opened. Out came the Pope and – you’re not going to believe this – there was a guy with him……wearing a big yellow, foam cowboy hat! Turd? It was Turd!!! And this is when it got absolutely incredible: all around me people were asking “Who is that guy on the balcony with Turd?” I kid you not. It was hilarious. (Sancho dropped his cannoli.)
ReplyDeleteWhat a guy…taking his wife to Italy for her birthday. Turd, you are the man!
OK! 35% margin maintenance increase on silver the last 7 days. Just draggin the beach ball deeper. Tremendous bankster effort to keep it under. When lift off comes; it will rocket right passed 50. The bottom line is good honest people are buying up physical gold/silver bullion in great quantities now, as my Father; along with rock solid turdites. Protecting their life's earnings, eroded away by benron benocide. Let this wealth continually flow unto the honest in heart, until the dead head fed goons are left with all the worthless FRN's; powerless to do AmeriCON'd any more destruction.
ReplyDelete@Happy in Woods
ReplyDeleteHappy, it seemed to me in the exchange we had over the weekend that I provoked you in some way. I'm guessing it is frustration with a newbie who just doesn't 'get it' with regards to SLV fraud. Just please understand my frustration with the 'of course SLV is a fraud' meme on the other side of it which is repeated so many times here and on ZH. If there are any hard feelings I do apologize, it was certainly not my intent to cause any.
The responses I got to my question were far more civil than I was afraid of considering what other posters received (mostly on ZH, I think, but I think I saw it here, too).
All of that said, I surely do wish I had gone into physical (either real physical, BullionVault, or GoldMoney) rather than CEF when it had a 9% premium, now 5% discount. An ETF wouldn't have those, which is what sparked my questioning.
MARAdona, good points. Just realize that whatever phys Ag is really available in the market will be snapped up with increasing gusto at the lower prices the Comex is creating.
ReplyDeleteThat Comex is driving this behavior and eating its own seed corn with little to no apparent regard for the future is is troubling me. It's as if they know something is coming and wringing out all the juice they can before it hits.
And speaking of CEF, apparently investors just realized the discount was too good to ignore -- in just a few minutes it is up over 2% with gold and silver still down.
ReplyDeletecan someone please explain to me what will bring this thing back? If all the EE has to do is do margin hikes, what will keep them from just doing it again and again? Who is goign to call them on it?
ReplyDeletehow will a short squeeze cause prices to go up on SLV if no one is buying?
Great God Vishnu, I do believe I just made some money on a mining stock. I almost forgot what that felt like.
ReplyDeleteMARAdona
ReplyDeleteInsightful...
As I ponder this topic a bit deeper... There will be a diminishing return on the CME rate hike tactic as traders adjust their strategy expecting more hikes. The unexpected hike (this weekend) won't fool traders twice. As margins increase, an increasing percentage of traders traders will intend to give/take delivery. The CME will soon make this tactic ineffective--even counterproductive.
72.92 dollar just can not catch a bid...Down goes the POSX.
ReplyDeleteWaffen,
ReplyDeleteIn a short squeeze, in order for shorts to cover, they have to buy. Thus, there is buying going on. Sometimes monster buying.
Here it comes again...a time cycle just kicked in...
ReplyDelete@Fleve
ReplyDeleteI think we are "trading twins".....this reminds me of January, when things went south, I just held on, with a general feeling that it would turn around at some point. After I found this blog and read about the "Turd's bottom" prediction, it was lots easier to just hang on through the correction.
So yeah, I'm much more attuned/obsessive about the minute to minute fluctuations, but even with a terribly underwater position, I know that it will come back and I'll still make money from there.....and as you said, learn to not worry about "missed opportunities".
I think you'd be a fool not to ask yourself: is this my get out of jail card? Do I cash it in now and get the hell out before 40, 38, 36 guts me like a fish?
ReplyDeleteJust a thought.
If we can reverse today, man that would be nice. Unfortunately, every rally will be met with swift selling. Folks want out of this game. Some people actually do know when to fold 'em.
from the looks of what I'm reading here, we have officially entered the "denial" stage of a bubble popping.
ReplyDeleteFWIW;
ReplyDeleteI just sold my largest SLV JUL 50 position at break even. If I woulda done it FRI... oh well. Should be able to do the same with the second largest very soon if we keep pushing above 44.
The two smaller positions are too far underwater, I'll just have to wait for them to resurface.
But the majority of my capital will be safe and ready to BTFD.
If we can reverse today, man that would be nice. Unfortunately, every rally will be met with swift selling. Folks want out of this game. Some people actually do know when to fold 'em.
ReplyDelete----------------------
Sell for what? US dollars ha ha ha no thanks I have more than my share of Paper Rectangles. Price means little to me.
44.50
ReplyDeleteEither it's breached and held or back to 43.
I said this on the last post of the previous thread, and I fear I stir up a hornet's nest again, but doesn't it make sense for the people who lend to traders on margin to protect themselves against the volatility which increased very dramatically last week? The swings got HUGE and they surely wouldn't want to be on the hook if the price gapped down big (like yesterday) and the traders couldn't cover margin.
ReplyDeleteIs there a flaw in my reasoning?
Gold not nearly so volatile, much lower margins. There are manipulators out there of course, but surely not everything is manipulation.
from the looks of what I'm reading here, we have officially entered the "denial" stage of a bubble popping.
ReplyDelete-----------------
OMFG we certainly have learned nothing have we...We have a long way to go sorry to say Turd.
Shill,
ReplyDelete"Sell for what? US dollars ha ha ha no thanks I have more than my share of Paper Rectangles. Price means little to me."
It must be nice to live in such a world divorced from reality.
I apologize for my ignorance; I don't trade, I buy physical so a lot of what is discussed here is over my head, but I have benefited from this blog. Thanks Turd. I've done a lot of clicking on ads, but soon I will send you some fiat.
ReplyDeleteMy question - what is POSX? Piece of shit?
atlee . . . I'll have to go back and read my last message to you; I have no intention of going short. I want to exit my SLV May contracts to have dry powder for any upcoming dip. Thx for correction on 16 not 18. Thank you for the help you've been so far.
ReplyDeleteActually, I think we are in the "Top-calling Mouth-breathing Troll" stage of a correction...
ReplyDeleteMr. Turd,
ReplyDeleteWhat's a yogurt store? Do you just sell different varieties of yogurt (greek, flavored, etc)?
It must be nice to live in such a world divorced from reality.
ReplyDelete----------------------
I sleep very well. Define your reality for us, I am interested. But keep it brief as not to bore me.
Kiwi- Perfect. And you would think that they would actually read what TF says... correction happening, watch support levels, then higher. Will the new site have a 'dumb as a rock' button we can click next to some of these posts? Perhaps a 'lucky to dress themselves unaided' button? We can only dream....
ReplyDelete@Blacksoldierfly
ReplyDeleteYou guessed it.
@Geoff
No, you're not wrong. You make a good point, I think. The silver market is one of the smallest commodities markets and prone to becoming overheated. Margin increases are suposed to protect the lenders and cool the market, both legitimate responsibilities of the CME. Doesn't mean they aren't doing them at JPM/HSBC request, either.
Actually, I'm surprised that margin requirements were as low as they were prior to these last few hikes. But then, there's a whole lot I don't understand.
72.90 and dropping, yet SSK says cash is king..Realtiy? or delusional.
ReplyDelete@Shill
ReplyDeleteAs long as your grocery store and barber don't take silver...cash is king. The rest is speculation and investment.
waffen:
ReplyDelete"If all the EE has to do is do margin hikes, what will keep them from just doing it again and again?"
You're in the tall grass with the big dogs now.
EE will change the rules whenever it suits, to whatever it suits. Santa thinks EE will eventually specify 100% margin.
What will limit the EE's racket is the physical silver market. And possibly silver futures trading on the new Hong Kong Metals Exchange (HKMEx), not offered yet but in the works.
@Fleve
ReplyDeleteI am right there with you in a world of hurt w/AGQ. I totally agree we can only wait it out. My only concern is a Crimex default in the interim.
Can any of you tell me where I can purchase small amounts of physical without paying the inflated premiums that the coin dealers are charging?
ReplyDeleteEvery shop I went to this morning either had nothing for sale or had mysteriously raised the premiums through the roof, even on generic rounds ($1 premium on friday, one place had $5 premium today on generics!)
What good is a dip if those jerks just inflate the premium to cover the difference?
@Geoff I don't recall the exchange and took a look thru the weekend blogs without finding it.
ReplyDeleteI haven't commented on comments made by anyone that 'SLV is a fraud' as far as I know. I might have asked questions about reasoning or support for that opinion.
I have commented on premium to NAV for funds that have those but even so not in a few weeks.
If you'd like to refresh my memory we can tidy this up. Up to you, certainly no hard feelings on my end as I con't even recall it.
I'm down 72% on AGQ May11 365 Calls.
ReplyDeleteIt moves so fast and I've been accustomed to seeing rebounds after expiry, so...
Should, I take my beating or hang on 10 more days?
Reality.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forexpros.com/equities/ishares-silver-trust-advanced-chart
I know. I know. Ho hum. Boring . . . .
GPL trying to make a move.
ReplyDeleteShill,
ReplyDeleteThe goofy thing about all that silly paper fiat is that I use it to buy precious metals.
sumo, right, so why the optimism by Turd?
ReplyDelete@ badu
ReplyDeleteI just purchased a 1/2 oz of gold for 775 on ebay, Free shipping too.
They aren't popular coins which is probably why they aren't going for much even on ebay but they are called 1st spouse coins. Check them out. I called my coin store and he said He would buy it now for 750. FWIW
Shill,
ReplyDeleteWe're actually sympatico on one thing: GPL.
I'm making nice fiat, er coin, on GPL today. It's held up like a trooper. Just can't break 3.40. But when it does, it'll pop.
Not sure why they aren't going for less than 800 gold is gold. There are some coming due later today. I would just add it to your watch list and bid in the last 2 min. I got no challengers.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif
ReplyDeleteYa...reality.
The thing about corrections is, well, they correct....except for the TCMBTs (see earlier post), I think everyone here believes silver will go back up again, it's just a matter of timing.
ReplyDeleteMy plan is to hold on through this correction, try to learn the lesson about not being full in all the time, and resume my normal manic trading when I'm back in the green.... ;-)
And down we go again. All rallies will meet heavy selling. That's the new reality.
ReplyDeleteSilver is for money, sliced paper is for your bunghole, as has been determined by thousands of years of the usage of both by humankind.
ReplyDeleteSweet, 0.700 bid for July 55 call when SIN11 was at 43.75 got filled. Wish I had more dry powder though! Anybody else going long now?
ReplyDeleteFOAGQ just made my first spanking real. Sold some when silver went over 44.20.
ReplyDeleteMistakes leading to this: 1) Buying when someone yelled BUY without doing my own data and gut check 2)compounding the error by not removing my preset ladder downs to compensate for volume of the buy which put me all in and 3) staying all in for the weekend because I didn't want to take even a small loss.
Made a nice sign for my wall so I don't forget.
I notice a lot of folks panicking the last couple of days. I look at it differently: I don't do any of this paper stuff - I go out once or twice a month and buy physical. If silver goes down, I look at it as a 'sale' on physical - time to load up!
ReplyDeleteIs it possible that the commercials, on the computerized side, are smacking the price down so that they can, on the physical side, buy as much silver as possible? It would make sense as a silver shortage appears to be imminent - along with all the other bullish fundamentals. The commercials aren't dumb. If they are aware of the supply/demand factors in silver I guarantee they are taking action.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you all think?
HeNateMe
@ Stephen
ReplyDeleteapologize for misunderstanding. I make my decision on silver related equities right off the silver chart. So use what you've learned so far to make the decision. I have shown you a new tool. You should get comfortable by just paper testing it before you actually put it to work. Just a suggestion.
It is evident that 44 to 44.20 is the ceiling so far today. Just be careful. they try to condition you to a response then change the music. With all the doom and gloom, my gut is that negativeness is a sign we a re near the bottom. Whether we are or not, try not to let it influence your thinking. It becomes self fulfilling if you do. It is hard but if you let emotion in you are lost. Like the miners, I have deep pain there but screw it I know I am right and this is a grea opportunity to add Looking to buy more NGD at 10.11 today.
OK so my call for today is a higher close. I think we take out the 44.20 and see how high we can get. GLTA
waffen: physical demand is starting to overwhelm the shorts. Demand is coming from investors all over the world, and from manufacturers. Silver has many new uses in electronics, power industries, health industries.
ReplyDeleteInvestor demand is being spurred by currency debasement and commodity price inflation, not just in US but in EU and Asia.
The long-term trend in silver is up. Way up.
@HappyInTheWoods....
ReplyDeleteVery sorry. That's what I get for trusting my memory. I should have double-checked the conversation. I will try to let that one happen again! I blame long nights in Ireland (just flew back yesterday after almost a month there -- and what a day I picked to be without internet access!)
I was responding to HAVEFAITH in that exchange. My brain remembered the HA and filled in the rest. So, HAVEFAITH, what I said in the last message I wrongly addressed to Happy (see last thread if you are interested, I doubt anyone wants to see it again!) should have been directed your way instead. No hard feelings were intended and I do thank you for replying to me.
Probably should have just kept my mouth shut, anyway.
Pining the problem is that they are HumancentiPads they can't read.
ReplyDeleteIf you don't get it google southpark humancentipad.
gotta love the miners - none of the upside (since about 38.50) and all of the downside. im encouraged to hear chatter about a resurgence in mining shares, but looking how things stand here, its very hard not to be shaken out here.
ReplyDeleteIm still remaining unconvinced of the popped bubble theory at this stage right here. i have a hard time imagining us not closing again in upper 40's before we truly start a dive if we are in for a correction. If, however, we close below 42 ...
Just to play devil's advocate for a second... Are the margin hikes really that sinister? I mean, yes, three increases in a week is clearly intended to force out some hot money, but even after the hikes look at the margin as a percentage of the contract. Still what, not even 8%? Considering the run-up we've seen it's not an outrageous move prima facie.
ReplyDeleteatlee: agree with you about miners and games EE plays.
ReplyDeleteI have some silver miners underwater - SLW, OKOFF, AG - but I'm convinced they will do fine in the long run. One day they will take off and I don't want to miss it.
@Happy in Woods
ReplyDeleteI am sorry to bother you but I think I might feel as if I had discovered the meaning to life if you could explain to me what "FOAGQ" means.
Thank you very much.
pbfurn. it means Friends Of AGQ and it's a way of shouting out without using the rather long list of individual names, allows folks browsing to tune in or out. Also has the hidden meaning of FOHZU because HZU is the equivalent traded by Canadians.
ReplyDeleteWhile I'm posting. Today's sale for me was about materializing my first loss, getting some dry powder and learning how to deal with a downturn.
The link below comports with Turds position.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/9441
Source: David Banister, Market Trend Forecast (5/2/11)
@Happy in the Woods,
ReplyDeletePainful but I think you grabbed the brass ring today. Maybe lost a finger but it seems better than being a martyr. No need to crucify yourself on a cross of AGQ.
@pbfurn,
FOAGQ = Friends of AGQ, a conspiracy of adrenaline junkies. I like it too, but wow, watch out when the whip is cracked. Learned that back in January after the December 31 euphoria.
It really depends on the dollar. Like turd says if they can get that moving to the upside then there is more pain coming our way. But I would not want to bet on the dollar would you? People I respect who have been at it for a long time say it is oversold and due for a bounce. But the fundos are so crappy will it be much if any or just trend sieways until that oversold condition goes away.
ReplyDeleteMargin hikes hurt me and you but we are not the driving force behind this move up in paper. We are just the foam. The BOS aren't hurt buy these hikes and frankly probably anticipated them in their game plan. BOS would rather not pay up for paper silver so they stand aside and let these shakeouts occur. They will be back after you get burned out or quit the mkt.
It is noticeable how sentiment has swung to the negative so quickly amongst the paper silver crew, which we are amongst on this blog.
ReplyDeleteI've talked to two bullion dealers here in Alberta and they are swamped with orders. I can imagine a similar thing happening across the globe right now.
Maybe I'm wrong but I think some folks here are still giving the EE too much credit and power.
If the price of silver drops lower they loose more physical. The have to be concerned about the speed they are loosing physical and they have demonstrated this recently.
Bottom line the paper silver scheme can only be maintained by satisfying the physical market which is still buying.
Volatility will be kept high to scare off new investors, keep folks hoping for a lower entry point and encourage shorts so that the bullion banks can gradually cover their massive short position.
The premiums on Puts seem really high. I'll go out on a limb here but I think we're close to a bottom. The fundamentals continue to grow exponentially positive.
@Happy in Woods
ReplyDeleteThank you very much! As you can readily discern, I have never been mistaken for one who is "hip" or right up-to-speed. I was really stumped as to what that meant.
So I was really hoping for some advice on my previous question... I need to know where I can buy small quantities of silver besides the dealers who are fooling around with jacked up premiums this week (or ebay, which I don't trust one bit).
ReplyDeleteAlso when is the forum going to be set up? I am sick of all my comments being ignored.
Xaritas. Yes it serves plenty of adrenaline. There were weeks back there I'd be exhausted and dried up by it.
ReplyDeleteThis is literally my first loss in over 2 months of trading. Hadda happen sooner or later. Doesn't make it fun. But I can't really be a trader until I figure out how to work with losses and how the down trend works.
SilverIsKing: thanks, from your link:
ReplyDelete"..I expect silver to correct to the 40 to $42.75 areas based on my Fibonacci work and Elliott Wave views, and after this 4th wave consolidation we will see a surge to as high as $60/oz. Any pullbacks in silver should be bought here and same with the silver stocks post haste..."
@atlee
ReplyDeleteThe dollar is a dog for sure, but that dog still has a few teeth left..so who knows??
HUI now at 562. Down almost 40 points. Never took out Trader Dan's 600 resistance.
ReplyDeletesilversurfer,
ReplyDeletewhat is david banisters timeline for $60?
Down and Out
ReplyDeleteGuys, I am going to have to lay low for a while. Something's up over here my spidey sense is tingling and I can't risk it. Sorry!
@SIK: Thanks for sharing that Bannister article link. Good read.
ReplyDeleteBadu: I don't have a good answer to your question. I bought a 20-roll of 1oz coins for my kids, for Xmas presents each year. Premium was outrageous. But now spot price is higher.
ReplyDeleteBadu, these days I buy most of my metal from online dealers. I liked eBay in the past, but premiums there are generally too high now. I don't buy from local dealers, because my state charges sales tax. Craigslist works well for some folks, too.
ReplyDelete@sumo
ReplyDeleteIt is frustrating, the spot price goes down $3-4 and the premiums mysteriously go up a corresponding $3-4... I'm sure it's just coincidence... yeah right.
Badu- If I knew of a good place to buy no-premium silver I would be there and not at my computer! So I don't have any ideas for you on that front, but this might help- it was suggested here some weeks back that half-dollars have the highest percentage of silver-content coins still in curculation, so a plan that was discussed was to call several banks and ask them to order some (they usually do not have them on hand, but you could call to see) then go through for the appropriate dates. Costs nothing but your time and if you find some, free silver! If not, just return them and get your $ back. Interesting idea, I would love to hear if this works from someone who has tried it. Best of luck!
ReplyDeleteatlee, it's a great tool you shared with me (and others here). I've been trading for over 20 years but only started trading silver related equities since finding turd's blog earlier this year. When you're not busy I'd like to hear more about how you use bb's with stoch together to make your buy sell silver decisions; or any pointers you think might be helpful to me and others. No hurry on that. TIA
ReplyDelete@ waffen
ReplyDeleteI assume you are asking me, King, not Surfer (though my icon is the Silver Surfer). Bannister doesn't mention a timeline but rather offers buy and sell points (I am not a subscriber so perhaps his subscribers get more detailed info).
Regardless, I am waiting for a big shakeout before I switch over from short to long in my trading account. I am long gold as a hedge against my short silver position and will be long both metals when we get the reversal...I hope.
If you want zero premium silver go for generic 90% bags. Apmex has them:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.apmex.com/Category/17/90_Silver_Generic_Bags.aspx
Re NETDANIA.com charts:
ReplyDeleteLink: http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx?m=c
I was intrigued on exactly what the volume was indicating-
Note that one has to click the button located under "ZOOM" TO SEE THE VOLUME.
So contacted NetDania.com & here's their (Izabela Mindak) response:
The numbers represent the trading volume from few banks, giving some indication of the ongoing market activity. Please note that it cannot be used as a guide line for the total market volume, which is unknown.
I'm in the same boat as Turd with $ burning a hole in my pocket as well. Having more money in dry powder in my trading account than I do in holdings right now is making the temptation to add new positions hard to resist. Think I'll give silver another day and if this current level holds I'm going to assume the worst is over and the next leg up may be just around the corner so long as the CME doesn't throw another margin hike phuck-phuck game at us.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete(edit: buggered up my last post, too many errors, repost)
ReplyDelete@ Kiwi, pbfurn, G A
Heck, I thought I was threading water all alone in an ocean of red. Actually, I wish I was; can't quite say I'm 'glad' I'm not the only one making this mistake. It reminds me of an anecdote I've come across during my reading.
"As the Russian joke has it, peasant Ivan is jealous of neighbor Boris because Boris has a goat. A fairy comes along and offers Ivan a single wish. What does he wish for? That Boris's goat should drop dead."
There are too many Ivans in this world who'd rather wish for other people to suffer with them than do something about their own suffering. It's quite amazing to see how well people here can handle their losses.
--
Now, on silver in general, before I get back to studying. Is it me or is silver having quite some difficulties with 43 already? Looks like we need another Globex slaughter tonight before we can move lower with the appearance of a confident move. Otherwise we're just strangely meandering about in the sunday/monday lows. It would amaze me if this is as low as we can get but during regular trading hours it doesn't seem like silver is willing to budge. I guess sellers don't want to spook off a rally, and buyers don't want to play into the hands of sellers waiting to make use of a higher price. I guess it's all down to the globex and the wee hours with little volume to make a price. Well, that, or another forceful downspike.
Q: What kind of option would you option traders recommend to participate in the next bull phase?
ReplyDeleteI love the knockouts, but they do not love me, it seems.
Or would you prefer to trade CFDs, as they give you a stop loss and can absorb a little timing error, if we dip through 40 and rebound from 38.
Here's another thing I was mulling over... A lot of the smaller guys who got squeezed out of silver this week by the margin increases - will they necessarily go right back into silver? I know I'm going to be putting a much bigger percentage into gold when I buy back in on this upcoming low. Perhaps gold, which until last week has really taken a back seat in the last few months, will be the beneficiary of the comex shenanigans with silver and reemerge during the parabolic run-up?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete@Fleve-
ReplyDeleteNot sure where I heard it today, but repeated here for your (and all the other AGQ treaders)amusement:
"Knock, Knock"
"Who's there?"
"Dwayne"
"Dwayne who?"
"Dwayne the tub, I'm dwowning!"
grin!
Badu, lowest premiums are always going to be P2P. Not to mention best selling prices. I've dropped this link before, maybe it will help you.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bulliondirect.com/nucleo/showProducts.do?cat=Silver_Bullion&category=1
@Fleve
ReplyDeleteWhat a fabulous anecdote! That is a real classic.
This situation reminds me of the old cynical workplace poster, "Until morale improves, the beatings will continue."
Thanks for sharing your humor; it is the only humor I have seen in the last 40+ hours.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/rep-frank-targets-fed-hawks-2011-05-03
ReplyDeleteWhoohahahahahah!
HA HAHAHAHA!!!! I can hardly contain myself.
I just received a trading alert from a newsletter I subscribe to. I will paste, below, a few of the points made about what's happening in silver and gold and the PM shares. The points make me want to hold onto my large AGQ positions until perhaps December, and also, to get into mining shares in mid-August. Anyone's thoughts on the pasted points below would be great:
ReplyDelete1. Gold and silver are in a correction. Gold has new support at 1507-1516. Silver double-topped just under $50 and began to sell on our forecast. Silver futures for July supported ten cents above our forecast low this morning at $42.98. Our silver support forecast number was $42.85.
2. Silver and gold had four negatives hit near the month end. Expiration of options, expiration of May silver futures, cycle timing hit for a selling event, and the recent price near $50 was overbought. Overbought markets, when they turn and sell, sell very swiftly. THE LONGER TERM VIEW ON SILVER AND GOLD TRENDS REMAIN UP. THE INTERMEDIATE TERM IS CHOPPY UNTIL AUGUST. THERE WILL BE IA RALLY IN LATER MAY RISING INTO JULY.
3. We have received many emails asking why the PM shares were flat or down when the metals were in recent bull markets. (1) The broader stock markets were higher yet the PM markets were flat or down. (1) The broader stock markets were weak but propped by manipulation to sell lots of IPO shares. They are not done yet and this continues for this month and perhaps part of June. New York has a lot stock to sell and they will do it. This will levitate the main stock markets for some time but with some choppy action. (2) The precious metals markets are not propped and they have been weak as well on cycles and time of year. These markets will be selling into later May and then recover in perhaps the third week with prices rising until the end of June.
4. The GDXJ, the junior stock PM index, is in a continuation triangle. The GDX ETF is very similar. We forecast these indexes and the shares they represent to sell mildly for about 10 trading sessions followed by a mild rally from the third week of May toward the end of June. July is a selling month and August normally begins the new rallies from August all the way to December 1.
5. The daily trading ranges are going wider than normal. This means the ups and downs during the daily sessions give us wider trading ranges. This is good for day traders but worries the investors and traders with a longer view. For now, we suggest investors and traders just continue to hold positions and grit your teeth. If you have major gains in some trades you can: (1) Exit the trade with the idea you can return in August for the next rallies. (2) Sell half and hold half (3) Keep them all knowing you will be on a roller coaster of trends until August.
If I can find one silver lining in all this, SLW has now outperformed the metal for two straight days.
ReplyDeleteSee you at 40!
ReplyDeleteSSK thanks! Hadn't checked recently as that's in the long bucket. Shame that this is what it takes though.
ReplyDelete=/ this is like being sawn in half with a rusty steak knife
ReplyDeleteDD,
ReplyDeleteYep. If 40 doesn't hold, we're fucked. The gaps up left no support until 37. You can even argue 36.
I've already lost my shirt. Any more red is just kicking me while ai'm down.
SSK
hi diamond, where was that newsletter from ?
ReplyDeleteSSK looking at the same thing
ReplyDeleteV shaped bottom in silver?
The thing about this recent pullback that bothers me the most: it was so obvious. Every idiot on the Yahoo message boards and financial news parroted the same damn line: Short silver. It's topped.
ReplyDeleteWell, you know what, markets almost never follow that pile-on thinking. They continually confound expectations. But not this time. Every a-hole financial guy on Thestreet.com nodded their heads in agreement. And down goes silver. Markets don't act this way, from my experience. Certainly not when it concerns gold and silver miners going up.
But here we are. The obvious trade has made a lot of arrogant a-holes lots of money the last couple days.
According to my (rather crappy) analysis (I must admit), with 5 DM, 20 DMA and Fibonnaci Levels and Lines, data pulls this out:
ReplyDeleteRight now we're @ 42.60
First level of resistance is 41.45
Second level is MAIN TREND to the upside: 40.47
Third level of resistance is 40.00
Fourth: 37.53
Fifth is MAIN TREND to the upside (lower level): 37.12
Basing myself in this chart analysis, my idea is that the EE is trying to push the price of silver back to is original trend.
For those in AGQ, I reccomend you to HOLD
It seems that (using the MAIN TREND), we might be back around 39 and 43 by JUNE and by JULY, we'll be looking at 47.
This MAIN TREND things meand an orderly upward chart and not a disorderly one.
Obviously I'd rather see this thing bounce back and take over 50 by tomorrow :)
so how long will it take to recover to 50? 1 month, 2 months, 3 months?
ReplyDelete@stevy
ReplyDeleteThe alert I pasted is from Roger Wiegand's Trader Tracks newsletter. He does an online radio show with Al Korelin: kereport.com
RSI + volume = great strategy!
ReplyDeleteWhen do we sell this dip? 44.00? 43.50?
My chart shows 50 by August (according to the main trend line)
ReplyDeleteRoger Wiegand's market close and comments on the trading day are worth listening to. He started his trading career on Silver futures :-)
ReplyDeleteThe EE has resorted to the nuclear option...run for cover!
ReplyDelete@BBL
ReplyDeleteNot sure where you bought in, I haven't yet (still waiting for RSI 20, 4pm maybe?) But if I had bought I'd be looking to get out when that 5min RSI hits 50. If you're ballsy..half at 50 and hold the second half for 70-80. But that's a little riskier in a down market.
sumo,
ReplyDeleteto keep the main trendline assumes that we throw the whole short squeeze talk out of the window.
So is there one or not?
@BBL
ReplyDeleteOne other thing, you've GOT TO BAIL if it gets below that nasty 42.14 bottom. We're untested as to where other buyers would step in, could be a huge cliff drop to 41 or even 40s real fast. Be careful..don't hold too long :)
I'm not looking for no-premium necessarily, I just need to keep buying my few oz per week.
ReplyDeleteEbay freaks me out, and ordering online the shipping kills it for only a few oz. Craigslist might be an option.
What pisses me off is the coin shops here are dicking around with inflating their premiums artificially to cover their losses. I am not opposed to paying a reasonable premium but $9 premium on eagles just so you can keep selling them at $54? Give me a break. That's your manipulation right there. And every one of these jokers had a sob story about why they had to jack the premium up, either the recycler isn't buying, or market dried up, whatever. It is plain and simple obvious they got into those coins at $48+ and aren't going to let them go at a loss. So they're falsifying the premium to maintain their profit.
A DIP IS NO GOOD IF YOU CANNOT BUY AT THAT PRICE.
Just a quick note.
ReplyDeleteThe recent pattern is a selloff at around noon EDT on days when a margin hike is announced. Could hike #4 be tonight?
@waffen,
ReplyDeleteSince you are in Jun SLV 55 calls, which are now about about 30% of what you bought them for if I recall from yesterday's post. Right now silver is making lower highs and I guess you didn't pull the trigger this morning either. You might want to considering taking advantage of any strength, unless you are perfectly cool with seeing the bid/ask go to .01/.02. Unlike the AGQ 370 holders, you cannot wait this one out. A lot of silver bulls have had their wealth destroyed over the last 48 hours so you have to ask yourself who is going to bid the market up $17 in the next 46 days to put your options in the money.
This sucks but when you take the knife out it will stop hurting.
I am not a financial advisor, just a computer programmer/soldier/Greek and Latin scholar.
hey can someone recommended a futures broker that is not lind-waldock? They are raping me on commissions. Also my broker put a stop loss on my account that got triggered just so he could get his commish. feelsbadman. They are charging me $40 a trade! Thats after I talked them down from $135 a trade, adn they still stopped me out. Frankly, I now believe they are in bed with the mourge.
ReplyDeleteSilverBleve: some pros use Interactive Brokers
ReplyDelete@ Pailin
ReplyDeleteIt went to RSI 20 on the 5 min chart at 13:05. I hesitated and bought a bit higher. Didn't sell at 43.00 but it looks like I should have done so.
No fun at all!
Gold is holding $1540 pretty well. I have bids below in case it drops, but it seems it will take quite a push to drive it lower.
ReplyDelete@Turd,
ReplyDeleteSince today's loss in silver is greater than the new margin of $16,200 (3.50 x 5,000= 17,500), another margin increase would certainly be in order.
@SSK
ReplyDeleteimo, this is not an obvious trade by any means on either side.
there was a strong upwards trend in a commodity that is undervalued and carries alot of baggage with it. keep in mind the shorts have been piling on it for past few weeks, some even months, losing money while we were all gaining. i agree that a correction was due, but doubt very few people outside of the large players who control this knew exactly when...
U guys dare to use any leverage to boost the profit? (or for many of us now - make us lose more)
ReplyDeleteUgh. XAG is very weak right now. They may walk us down to 4pm like yesterday or better yet let it sit around here sticking to 42.50 and draw in some buys then hammer it to break through 42.
ReplyDelete@atlee
I still very much believe in the upside long, but this highly-managed take-down has got to shake out before I'll put a lot of money back in. This is just like January XAU, except this time I cut my losses early enough to still have good gains to gingerly play with.
Come on! How many times are we gonna bounce off this 42.4x. Hope it won't brake loose under my feet!
ReplyDeleteHere's a link to the pic of the chart I was mentioning a few comments ago:
ReplyDeleteHope the more experinced ppl review it and tell mw how bad (or good) I did.
http://i54.tinypic.com/2nitr9.jpg
@BBL
ReplyDeleteAre you using 14 sessions? That's what I'm using, did not see RSI 20. Still haven't, though we're getting really close now with the 42 crush. I'm probably backing up to RSI 10 now or maybe round number 41.50. Dunno, thinking...
Xaritas,
ReplyDeletethanks for the nice response. Yes June 55 calls. I was out of pocket yesterday, so I was hoping for a retest of .90 that it hit then I was going to sell.
I am just wondering if between now and the end of the month we will see $47-$48 so I can recoup most of my losses. I was hoping for volatility in both directions not just a constant beatdown.
anyone buying xag below 42?
ReplyDeleteRSI not quite at 20 yet
Badu
ReplyDeleteMammoth has been buying 90% coin via Craigslist quite aggressively lately. Give it a shot.
and we just took out $42, it's got to bounce back somewhere....I hope!
ReplyDeleteWell, gold's coming down. Come get my orders, please.
ReplyDeleteTim
ReplyDeleteNice shot on the ebay buy!! Looks like you got a little pirate in you too!!
I think bottom will be around 37-38.
ReplyDeleteMISTER...RE: RSI on mining stocks.
ReplyDeleteHave been following the style of an old codger from a service I've followed...(he's a member there, the service does squat!)
RSI...30-70 range plus watching the MACD and some of the previous horizontal support levels.
However, at this point, we may only have RSI dip to the middle area (around the 50 or so) instead of getting all the way to 30.
I, also missed out the last go round because I was preoccupied and just couldn't pay attention.
I have "low buys" and last year was trading "thirds" as per the style of the mentor...but my positions were small, so I switched to half postions. I have "base" positions in GG, AUY and EGO, and need to add another half to GG and, in another account, EGO. I missed the big dip before for the above reason, so we'll see. If they don't go lower than what I've got, I just may sit tight. The mentor also advises to always buy lower than where you've sold! LOL!!!!!
I'm dying with a little position in GPL and hanging in there with TKRFF. These literally were "1/4" positions...I took a normal half and split it between the two! I traded SLW earlier and now and now am dying with half a position at 42.90.
Bought June calls when we hit $41.80. My chart shows $41.40 as Fibonacci extension target of this downmove.
ReplyDeleteThis has got to be another margin issue. There are no BOS here. Peeking at 8hr chart. Our RSI is already below mid-March Japan-quake low. I'm no buyer here. I'll take 41 if it comes really fast and 40 if we're there before 4pm.
ReplyDeleteAye matey,thanks to yah. Arrrg
ReplyDeleteJust a SLV options update here from me... the newbie options guinea pig.. :D
ReplyDeleteOk.. last Wednesday right after Bernanke spoke my Jun $48 SLV calls (10) were up from my investment for a profit of + $1800.00. That put my initial $1K options account balance up to $4K! I was happy. :] ...I decided to hold off and did not liquidate anything...hoping for that pop to $50 or so this week. Friday found me down to + $1200.00 in these calls but still I wanted to wait to see if we got the pop this week. After the Sunday night madness my account opened to a + $600.00 on these SLV calls on Monday (yesterday) morning. I was *hoping* we would still get a pop and I didn't know where the trend was leading earlier this week so I continued to hold. "/
That brings me to today, Tuesday. I finally saw the writing on the wall after all of todays posts and closed out my (10) SLV $48's for a loss of $230.00.
So, here is what I learned:
1)WHEN I had a more-than-double profit last week I should have taken SOMETHING off the table. It would have been prudent to have taken 5 contracts down and let the rest ride if I thought we might see that pop this week. A poster here even suggested that to me. That was the GREED on my part. AHhhhh.. now I get it.
2)WHEN the trend started to really go south I should not have been kicking myself and digging my heels in (remember me?.. STANDING FIRM over here).. I should have taken the $600.00 opening profit from Monday (yesterday) (but again.. I didn't understand yet just where we were headed)
3)WHEN it kept going further down I took too much time agonizing over a decision to hold through until June or to cut and take what I had ..and so that was the FEAR ..(not wanting to take less than the $1200.00 or WOW...the $1800.00 from earlier last week!)
So, the bottom line is this: As of now my account is still over double value from where I started with my $1K ($2200.00). My gameplan at this point is to keep the $1380.00 dry powder I have and buy back some SLV (maybe 15 of the SLV $48's ..or 10 of either $47..$46..$45? .....So, I'm happy that I'm out. I feel peace. I learned some lessons. I can't wait till we bottom so that I can jump in there and come out swinging again!!.....albeit THIS time armed with a bit more knowledge and less indeciveness! ;)
I should say that I need to add back another half in GG and EGO...I've traded the other halves, so I'm looking to add a new trading position....while holding onto my core low parts.
ReplyDelete@waffen - i feel you there bud. i was hoping for a bit more volatility on either side as well, not just a complete sell off here.
ReplyDeleteHad big plans to sell into some built up strength early this week, but so far its just been a freefall.
i guess i cant cry that it happened a week sooner than i expected. will just have to bleed out from here until we find some support, and if we cant, then it looks like ill be shaken from all my positions besides physical.
too much barfing.
@Myron
ReplyDeleteGood to know 41.40 Fibo, we'll see what happens there...
the COMEX, according to the bears, is out of silver:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=u9LcKcXpCDE
@TYLER
ReplyDeleteDo not freak about PSLV. The absurdly huge premium to NAV is contracting and any holder of the trust should have expected it. It goes up and down. If you want to capture the remaining 8% premium and buy into a CEF sister all silver fund, I just bought SVRZF (Silver Bullion Trust) on the pink sheets at an 8% discount to NAV.
This is FWIW YMMV Do your own dilligence. But I've been predicting the huge PSLV would disintigrate just like the CEF one did when the placed their shelf offering.
That said, I'm down 20% in my accounts - almost all of it AGQ related and I'm holding my AGQ because I believe in silver, I believe in the trend, and I am not a trader.
Do what thou with shall be the whole of the Law.
BRad
so. angry. right. now
ReplyDeletecan anyone give a report as to what is happening to Apmex's inventory right now?
ReplyDelete@waffen,
ReplyDeleteFrom Turd's post above: "Next week, we'll probably get a re-test of whatever the bottom ends up being before basing and heading higher into the end of the month and early June."
Note that he means "higher from whatever the bottom turns out to be," not "higher from where it was 48 hours ago."
If you can generate some capital some puts might help you out, but obviously think very carefully.
Ginger
ReplyDeleteExcellent post.
Ben Davies of Hind Capital expecting flash crash in Silver to possibly 30. Nothing would surprise at this juncture. Just hope I have enough capital to take advantage should it happen. Sorry if I alarm people with this. I love Silver. But I do not beleive it respects support and resistance sometimes and most certainly Blythe is getting her revenge this week. go to KingWorldNews for the article.
ReplyDeleteHopefully this experience leads to a more open society 'round these parts.
ReplyDelete(not that it wasn't good before)
Anyone left? Are we the remaining blithering idiots watching our wealth wither in front of our eyes? Are we the last fucking imbeciles who haven't sold everything and got the fuck out of the EE's way?
ReplyDeleteAnyone who has held is an idiot. Just like me.
If you have a small NAV and are trying to play leveraged paper silver, then I'm begging you all to stick to futures options.
ReplyDeleteDon't fall into the margin call trap and don't fall into the trap of ETF's that only trade during the peak hours of manipulation.
The small specs who are getting suckered into holding paper contracts are the ones they are targeting with these margin increases and drilldowns. The less margin calls out there to trigger, the less downside in the price of silver.
Big time Idjiot here!
ReplyDelete@rhaler
ReplyDeleteFlash to 30 is a very outside possibility, but not impossible. It only requires all large bids be pulled to the side until the move is over. If this scares you, and it should, just put in some stops under 37 or get out now. I no have idea if it will happen, but it's theoretically possible. That's what we've been seeing in smaller moves since last Monday 49-45 flash.
Ginger,
ReplyDeleteI think I am in the fear stage right now. ofcourse I am sitting at $1500 left of a $6155 cost basis, so risk reward makes me think i should sit it out and hope for a ride up.
I have a feeling if less people would play these paper games, the EE would have less of a reward to 'flash crash' and the rest of their reindeer games. The only way to win these games is not to play.
ReplyDelete"How about a nice game of chess?" - WOPR
SSK
ReplyDeleteSeems to me that SLW was a leading indicator on the whole "miners suck" meme. If you are seeing relative strength now in SLW that actually gives me a shred of hope.
April 2004: Silver falls from $8.25 to $5.50. A 33% correction.
ReplyDeleteMay 2004: Silver falls from $6.10 to $5.40. A 12% correction in only 4 trading days.
Sept. 2004: Silver falls from $6.80 to $6.12. A 10% correction in only 8 days.
Dec. 2004: Silver falls from $8.00 to $6.60. A 17.5% correction is only 2 weeks.
Jun-Jul 2005: Silver falls from $7.55 to $6.80. A 10% for the summer.
Apr. 2006: Silver falls from $14.25 to $12.10. A 15% correction only 2 days.
May 2006: Silver falls from $15.00 to $12.00. A 20% correction in only 10 days.
June 2006: Silver falls from $12.50 to $9.70. A 22% correction in only 9 days.
July 2006: Silver falls from $11.75 to $10.50. A 11% correction in only 7 days.
Sept. 2006: Silver falls from $13.25 to $10.75. A 19% correction in only 10 days.
Dec. 2006: Silver falls from $14.10 to $12.50. A 11% correction in only 14 days.
Mar. 2007: Silver falls from $14.30 to $12.50. A 13% correction in only 4 days.
Aug. 2007: Silver falls from $13.10 to $11.60. A 11.5% correction in only 10 days.
Mar. 2008: Silver falls from $21.00 to $17.50. A 17% correction in only 3 days.
Apr. 2008: Silver falls from $18.50 to $16.50. A 11% correction in only 13 days.
And then silver had a biggie…
July-Oct 2008: Silver falls from $19.40 to $8.85. A 54% correction in under 3 months.
And don’t forget…
Feb-Mar 2009: Silver falls from $14.50 to $12.70. A 12% correction in 3 weeks.
June 2009: Silver falls from $16.00 to $13.70. A 14% correction in 20 days.
Jan. 2010: Silver falls from $18.75 $16.25. A 13% correction in 18 days.
May 2010: Silver falls from $19.70 to $17.50. A 11% correction in only 11 days.
Please keep in mind that in between those periods there were plenty of declines of 5-9%.
I'd be quite shocked it it took out it's 50dMA near $38, but if it does you have to figure everyone and their sister will quadrupling down.
ReplyDeleteI thought it would touch $39 last week, but these margin account rules are a little late and a little too packed together.
Say steady, remember the big picture and see you on the other side.
The last correction we had, in JAN, was around 15% and took about three weeks to bottom out. I am no market expert, but it would not surprise me if this one was much shorter. I think there is still a lot of money waiting to come back into this silver bull. Of course, everyone is margin hike-shy now. Maybe Turd is right and another one tonight could drive the market lower still. Still, I think there is a big rally in the near future.
ReplyDeleteI have no choice but to hang onto my calls now. Not selling at these levels.
how to catch a falling knife? two minor wounds so far.
ReplyDeleteEric,
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't get too hopey on us. SLW is down a buck ten.
BTFD
ReplyDeleteThe lower trendline I have shows a retest of $50 around the first week of June, but I really need to stop drawing graphs...
ReplyDeleteTurd's purchase price target rests between 42 and 40; we're at about 41.30. We will see it go lower, then we bounce.
ReplyDeleteTake a deep breath and count backwards from 10.
Thanks Eric! ..Learnt me some lessons.. Lived to trade another day. STILL don't know if it wouldv'e been best to just hold the calls and let them rebound into the end of May.. but I feel the sleep-at-nite test had me go this way. ;)
ReplyDeletewaffen,
*IF* I'd had as much money as you tied up and was down that much.. I KNOW at this point I woudn't feel any choice but to ride it out. It WILL go back up if you believe in the metals trend! My heart goes out to you because I know exactly how you are feeling. I do know! ..Hang in there.. I believe you will be rewarded.. ? ..(I do believe it!)
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ReplyDeleteFOAGQ...
ReplyDeleteI bought ZSL at 16.20 this morning... I'm not proud of it, but I do feel a little better this afternoon.
Wait for daily MACD point up. I won't buy till then.
ReplyDeleteSSK
ReplyDeleteA shred of hope. Just a shred and nothing more.
The ease with which this is going down is terrifying. I knew it would be going down but I was expecting at least some sort of resistance along the way. Can't really say that 42 put up fight.
ReplyDeleteWell, if this is 'the end', at least I'll have a story to tell in the future; can't say this is boring. But I'll wait, I've got time, and so does silver.
@SSK - hopefully your sentiment reflects the capitulation that marks a bottom. Here's hoping...
ReplyDeleteBut in reality, it probably won't bottom until you sell.
confirmation: another margin hike coming tomorrow.
ReplyDeletePredictions for bottom today?
ReplyDeleteSSK, Yep, I'm an idiot too, in fact I continue to buy more shares on the way down this elevator ride. I only trade in my IRA's and have a long horizon but I'm down about 15k/10% the last couple of days. Holding physical. I made a decision several months ago to go through this, awaiting Armstrong's June 13 event/turning point. Feeling pretty stupid right now though. Time to turn off the internet for a month, don't know if that can be done though.
ReplyDelete