Monday, May 16, 2011

An Overnight Read

Hang in there tonight. Silver is desperately trying to paint a reverse H&S on the hourly chart. We'll know a lot more by tomorrow. In the meantime...

My Australian buddy, Turdle, just brought this to my attention and I thought it was worthy of publicity here. It comes from this site:
To save you time and effort, I've c&p'd it below. I have no idea who "Ranting Andy" is but he's certainly got the right idea. Thanks, Andy, wherever/whoever you are!

Ranting Andy: Unity in Common Sense

RANTING ANDY – As another week of horrific market manipulation concludes, my mind is aflutter with thoughts.  Yes, the Fiat Age is nearing its end, led nose down into hell by the U.S. dollar.  But we know that already.
Yes, gold and silver represent the ONLY successful currencies, and stores of value, in human history.  But we know that already.
Yes, the gold Cartel, which is essentially Washington, Wall Street, and their puppets in London, spend the entirety of their working days (if you call robbery work) manipulating markets in order to maintain a status quo in which they own and rule everything in the Western world.  But we know that already.
And yes, it’s blatantly obvious that these manipulative efforts, particularly suppressing Precious Metals while simultaneously supporting the Dow and U.S. Treasury markets, have taken a quantum leap skyward in recent weeks, starting with the May 1st SUNDAY NIGHT SILVER MASSACRE. 
Yes, we already know that, and yes we know they did it because gold, silver, and the Euro were all making new all-time highs just as the end of QE2 is planned to end.
Given all this “common knowledge”, which I say facetiously because 99% of Americans haven’t the slightest clue, what is it about this week’s markets that stands out in my mind?  And here’s the answer, yet again: 
Occam’s Razor. 

The simplest explanation is usually the right one, and in this case it couldn’t be more simple.  I have no problem with the aforementioned ignorant 99% not getting it, and frankly most of them never will.  But what irks me more than anything, more than Goldman/Morgan, Paulson/Geithner, Greenspan/Bernanke, and Bush/Obama combined, is the inability of the 1% to consistently unite in their quest to depose the evil and instill the just.
Every day for the past nine years, I have watched my net worth, employment prospects, and sanity get besieged by illegal acts by psychopathic criminals bent on my destruction.  As have my small band of allies that believe gold and silver are the market’s most attractive investments in the world (the only ones I’ve owned during this time, and likely the only ones I’ll ever own).  I haven’t met them all, but feel a strong kinship with these hearty souls, whom as a group have dedicated their lives to not only self-preservation, but helping others to do the same.  I believe the fight for real money is my calling in life, and nothing I’ve ever done comes close to the passion I feel for this issue, particularly as we stand at the precipice of the most earth-shattering currency events in the history of mankind.
It’s bad enough to watch GOVERNMENT COMPUTERS naked short Comex futures, GLD, SLV, and Precious Metal miners all day long (just watch SLW or SLV trade for an hour, and you’ll know what I mean), while fabricated economic statistics, lies, and propaganda are spouted on the TV and internet all-day long.  But to watch so many of the so-called “gold bulls”, for years and years on end, continually shoot their followers in the back with doubletalk, top calling, and, worst of all, FLAWED CHART ANALYSIS, is what puts me over the top.
These people will one day talk about PM manipulation, and the next (usually after an attack occurs, citing “technical damage”) talk about how the “charts have turned bearish”, and if they don’t turn around soon all will be lost, or something of the like.  My favorite such drivel is the type that says “if gold breaks below $1,490, it could fall to $1,460, and if it breaks $1,460 it could fall to $1,420.”  Well DUH!  Of course it could fall to $1,460, or $1,420, or ZERO for that matter.  But then again, it “could” rise to $1,530, or $1,570, or a ZILLLION.
We have been in a gold bull market for eleven years, and likely will be for the rest of our lives.  And the people writing this commentary (many of whom have paid followers) are for the most part highly intelligent believers in the cause.  But for some reason, they refuse to fully grasp what is going on, which in essence is the same battle that has repeated itself for centuries.  And that is the 24/7 SUPPRESSION OF GOLD AND SILVER!  Every time I read them write that gold fell due to “the rising dollar”, “risk trades being turned off”, “economic worries”, or “the swooning stock market”, I realize that perhaps I will never see the day when our “team” for once works together against the evil that is out to destroy us.  Not only is this information completely wrong, and easily refutable (especially because 99% of gold’s declines occur at the same three times of day), but it creates an immense amount of fear to those looking for guidance in a financial world gone mad.
I really don’t want to name some of the most egregious culprits, for fear of making enemies, but there are some very prominent people that still cannot stop looking at their silly little short-term charts, which are all MEANINGLESS IN A RIGGED MARKET, and consequently fear-mongering.  But I do want to single out one such person, whom I have never met, simply because he is so revered as a prophet of some sort.  I have a great deal of respect for Martin Armstrong’s writings, as he is obviously a very bright man.  However, aside from flowery language and his deep knowledge of history, Mr. Armstrong is not writing anything different than I and many other lesser-knowns have been writing for the past decade. 
Surely, someone as knowledgeable about the concept of “money”, and as revered in the PM sector, should be a true champion of the cause, one who can rally the troops in the manner that true leaders such as Sinclair, Sprott, Embry, Turk, Willie, Keiser (Max), Maloney, and Murphy do. 
Surely, by now someone of his caliber has figured out that the gold and silver markets are the most manipulated on earth, just as they ALWAYS HAVE BEEN, and thus if the government can buy stocks all day via the PPT (sorry, the President’s Working Group on Capital Markets”), and T-Bonds all day via the Fed, than they certainly can be naked shorting PAPER gold and silver all day via the Gold Cartel (sorry Ted, Goldman Gary Gensler has NOT done a thing to help us out, and NEVER will!).
But just as my idol Richard Russell refuses to acknowledge that his beloved Dow Theory was rendered USELESS a decade ago by market manipulation, Armstrong refuses to acknowledge that his “Long Term Primary Channel” analysis is equally useless for the same reason.  In fact, the following paragraph from his latest piece, “So you thought the Sovereign Debt Crisis Was Over?” (the conclusion, by the way) is what inspired this article, and states the following about one of his proprietary gold charts:
“Now that we exceeded the top of this channel, it will be the test to fall back to make it support, which lies at $1,227.90 in 2011 and $1,239.30 in 2012 (mathematically calculated).  Technical resistance stands at $2,000.90 in 2011 and $2,037.20 in 2012, with initial support at $1,374.10 in 2011, rising to $1,410.50 in 2012.  So those that think I am long-term bearish by merely saying a retest of support is the next stage to prepare for the big rally, need to understand that this is simply a pattern that unfolds in how markets trade.”
When I read drivel like this, particularly from someone so well educated and versed in history, I tremble with anger.  The fear-mongering this creates among the poor souls desperate for guidance through the Gold Wars is incredibly counter-productive to the cause, which in essence is a real life saga of good versus evil.  Such double talk only reinforces fears the Cartel creates through its daily attacks on gold, silver, and PM shares, and to see it come from ‘gold army leaders’ such as Armstrong (and many others) only makes it worse.
YES, MARTIN, YOU ARE “LONG-TERM BEARISH” (in terms of the average person’s investment horizon and ability to sustain losses to the Gold Cartel)! 
If gold falls to “$1,227.90 in 2011”, that would represent an 18% decline (or 22% from last month’s all-time high of $1,575), which by definition is a BEAR MARKET.  Not to mention, if gold falls to “$1,227.90 in 2011”, silver would likely fall further in percentage terms, perhaps to $25 or so to throw out a round number, which for non-mathematicians represents a 50% decline from April’s all-time high of $50.  And I won’t even broach the topic of how much the HUI would decline if gold falls to “$1,227.90 in 2011”, which would probably wipe out the remaining PM investors that have survived to this point, particularly through the horrific, GOVERNMENT-ENGINEERED PM MASSACRE OF LATE 2008.
Of course, anything in the markets is possible, and certainly gold and silver could decline further.  However, to intimate that gold is likely to dramatically plummet in the current environment is not only ridiculous, but insulting to my intelligence.  Unlike in 2008, when the government was able to attack PMs under the guise of “deflation fears”, today’s environment is much different.  Back then, the Fed and its pathetic puppets in Europe and Japan at least had some ammo left, such as lowering interest rates to zero and promising that printing trillions of dollars, pounds, yen (and other currencies) could fix what was wrong.  However, today all those bullets have been shot, and what we have now is a ZIRP society with massive inflation, rocketing debts and deficits (especially in “King America”), and soaring inflation.  And further declines in the Western economies (which, by the way, will occur with 100% certainty) will only expose the situation more, in other words that the dollar (as well as the pound, Euro, and Yen) will continue to decline against ITEMS OF REAL VALUE under essentially all scenarios. 
The rush to PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER, as well as NECESSARY ITEMS such as AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, has begun, and will NEVER END until the fiat currencies are destroyed and replaced with REAL MONEY, in other words the re-establishment of a GOLD (and possibly SILVER) STANDARD in the not-so-distant future.
Years ago, I would have been too modest to challenge leaders in my field, but no longer.  I believe I have proven my ability to understand what is going on in the world as well as most (but definitely not all) of my peers in the “gold army”, and if no one else is going to call bulls—t than I will do it, and do it proudly.  My goal is not to make friends in this fight (although I’d certainly like to), but to help as many people as possible to navigate through these shark-infested waters. 
The Precious Metals manipulation this past month escalated from “Phase 1” to “Phase 2”, as my brilliant friend Mike Krieger penned last week, as the Cartel was nearly destroyed by the PHYSICAL SILVER EXPLOSION in late April that led to the aforementioned SUNDAY NIGHT (PAPER) SILVER MASSACRE.  The amount of despicable, illegal acts they will perpetrate in the coming months (such as non-stop margin increases, incessant naked shorting of GLD, SLV, and PM shares, propaganda, falsified economic data, double dealing (such as pretending to end QE2 when in fact they’re still doing it), etc., will only increase dramatically in 2011, I assure you.  The end game is nigh, and this is the last stand by the EVIL EMPIRE to try and stamp you out, and thus maintain the status quo.  They will win some battles, such as they have with this month’s PM bashing, but listen to what I am about to say, and listen carefully: 
No matter what they attempt in the paper markets, they WILL NOT be able to stop the Chinese, Indians, Russians, Arabs, and others from buying every available ounce of gold and silver, and it WILL NOT be at $1,227.90, I assure you!  Technical charts are for free markets, which no longer exist in America.  The America we have grown up with is GONE, and with each passing day its ideals will more rapidly distance themselves from the rear-view window.  The unholy alliance of Washington and its “massas” from Wall Street know the U.S.S. America is going down, and their only goal is to take as much of what’s left (from YOU) before the final bell rings on the dollar.
PROTECT YOURSELF, AND DO IT NOW.  Buy gold, silver, food, and other ITEMS OF REAL VALUE.  These items CANNOT, and WILL NOT, depreciate in value against paper currencies in the coming maelstrom.  I cannot speak for stocks, even PM stocks (although the odds are they will rise), but I can speak with certainty about the value of REAL, PHYSICAL ITEMS such as the aforementioned.
And for those of you writing commentaries to the public about the gold wars, including free articles such as those by Mr. Armstrong and subscription based works by others, PLEASE UNIFY IN THE CAUSE OF THE JUST, AND STOP SCARING YOUR READERS, PARTICULARLY WITH MEANINGLESS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS!


  1. Turd that article is fantastic, and makes three MAJOR points:

    1) There are NO free markets in America that are not black markets.

    2) The United States CANNOT control the world.

    3) REAL, PHYSICAL ITEMS are all you will have left after your digital one's and zero's disappear.

  2. One of the signs that collapse is coming.

    Indiana Supreme Court allows warrantless, illegal entry upon private property:

    It is never all of a sudden. It is a slow, measured pullback from the edges.

    Where, as here, demonstrated by the Indiana Supreme Court, private citizens have no solace from govt intrusion, the end is near.

    Be wary, and ready.

  3. From Harvey Organ's The Daily Gold An Silver Report -

    In the news today, we learned over the weekend that physical demand for gold and silver in India is on fire. This is from the big London business newspaper, the Financial Times:

    By Jack Farchy and James Fontanella-Khan Financial Times, London Friday, May 13, 2011

    The sharp drop in gold and silver prices has stimulated a surge in buying from India in a sign that consumers in the world's largest gold-buying country retain faith in the decade-long bull story for precious metals.
    Bankers have been surprised by the strength of Indian demand in the past week, when gold dropped below $1,500 a troy ounce and silver tumbled below $35 a troy ounce.
    UBS and Standard Bank, two large bullion dealers, have enjoyed some of the strongest days of sales to India this year, according to analysts at the banks, while others reported a similar surge.
    The buying from India, which accounts for a fifth of global gold demand and a 10th of demand for silver, comes as some investors in the west have cut exposure to precious metals and other commodities, spooked by a series of steep falls and the imminent end of quantitative easing in the US. Investors have cut their holdings of gold and silver through exchange-traded funds by 1.4 per cent and 5.7 per cent respectively in the past two weeks.
    But in Mumbai's bustling Zaveri market, the gold hub of India's wealthiest city, traders were suffering from no such jitters. Indeed, they were fiercely elbowing one another to grab as many shiny bars as possible last Friday amid expectations that falling prices would cause demand to soar.
    "Tonight people will be invading the market to buy gold. ... I'm here to refill as I'm running out of bars," said Amit Soni, a vendor standing in the packed store with a bag of cash in one hand and his mobile in the other to monitor the sales back at his shop.
    The apparent confidence of Indian consumers in a rapid price rebound could provide a floor for the market, analysts said.
    Walter de Wet, head of commodities research at Standard Bank, said that gold would "continue to push higher" and touch new highs this year. "The metal has reached $1,500 and we expect it to consolidate above this level soon," he said.
    On Friday gold was trading at $1,487, down 0.5 per cent on the week, and silver at $34.50, down 2.8 per cent on the week.
    Indians traditionally buy gold for weddings or festivals, but traders say the nature of the market is shifting as gold and silver buyers become more speculative.
    In common with many emerging economies, high inflation in India is driving investors into precious metals as a store of value when rising prices erode the value of their paper currencies. For that reason, many analysts and investors believe gold prices could soon resume their upward march and reach new record highs before the year is out.
    Chhabil Jain, a Mumbai silver trader, said that demand for silver bars was going through the roof and that many vendors were starting to run low on stocks.
    "People are booking incredible amounts of silver as they see the current drop in prices as a great opportunity to buy more ... most are buying for pure investment," he added. * * *

  4. Is it just me or it is just coincidence that the head of the IMF, who wanted to bust up the Fed and the central banks, was conveniently caught with his hands in the wrong place and is being replaced by a Fed-friendly JPM shill?

  5. Yep, pablo. Right on.

    CaliLawyer: Absolutely correct. I hope this case makes it to the US Supremes.

  6. Leonard: If that's the case, he's lucky he's not wearing a pair of cement sneakers and resting at the bottom of the Hudson.

  7. Na, they need a good diversion and scapegoat. Achieved!

  8. I need anyone to tell me where is the best place to get a few acres of land for cheap, for survival purposes, so probably temperate climate with firewood/running water nearby?

  9. Leonard: Try this on for size

  10. Thanks for printing the rant Turd, good catch.

    you too TP, I'm feeling a bit Indian myself!

  11. H I've been keeping my eyes open for something similar. I live near DC and I've been looking at Kentucky. I'd be curious where others are looking or finding relatively inexpensive livable land.

  12. So can someone please explain to me again why it's a bad thing for 'TPTB' to force down the price of something we all (supposedly) want to buy with worthless pieces of paper?

    never had anyone answer yet, and I've asked several times.

    (verification word 'rebledog' hehehe)

  13. Posted this on last thread but after the bell...

    Turdle - that was quite a clarion call you re-posted there. Right on right on! By Bill Murphy or a denizen on his blog? Whatever/whomever, glad you did post it. Thanks. Just what this and all gold/silver blogs need more of. This is war and we best not forget it.

    As much as I enjoyed the the passion and truth there, I would have added just a bit of a qualifier... instead of downgrading all TA, charts and calls, I think some of those that do engage in trading the charts and cycles do well for themselves and their followers with that talent.

    Like many (hopefully all) here, I have the same frustration, annoyance, disdain and mistrust with the gloom doom cycles guys when they talk in riddles. What do they want to achieve by doing that? Attention? Followers waiting with baited breath? Do they wish to "lead" their own herd of confused sheep?

    As much as I've appreciated Armstrong for all the reasons mentioned in the post, I find his current work suspect (for reasons I've mentioned several times before on this blog). YET... I would have qualified certain minor points in the good impassioned speech, and not include those that disperse chart analysis, predictions and such that are TRADERS (not investors) in SHORT-TERM chart reading and SHORT-TERM trading and narrow time windows (a few weeks).

    I'm in complete agreement about attempting to apply traditional methods to determine long cycles or even mid-term trends in our massively manipulated markets. Especially when so much of the "predictions" are hedged with cryptic weasel words and prognostications designed and written to allow about three back-door interpretations when their outcomes are way off.

    Completely agreed on his assessment of Sinclair and others who call it, stand by it, preach it, live it, eat it, share it. 'The Revolution' will remember them kindly as unafraid, unabashed leaders. At least the we the 1% will, and that's good enough for me, you, ours and anyone we can help along the way.

    The good TA/chart/fundo/gut-check-common sense guys are a rare and good breed. Traders can benefit greatly from their work. Even mid to long-term investors like myself can benefit on the buy and sell price and time from those guys... like Trader Dan and our very own Turd.

    Other than that small, qualifying point, I agreed whole-heartedly with Murphy's.

    EE, Don't Tread On Me.

  14. @Turd

    Holy #&!* dude, this is Jason Bourne stuff right here.

    Definitely something big about to happen here in the near future, glad you're on top of it Turd!

  15. Turd, this article is non-sense. By the standards of this article, your blog is heresy. This author can deny it if he wants but price matters and technical analysis is very useful in making informed buying (and gasp...sell) decisions.

    I have a friend who says price doesn't matter because he measures his metal in ounces not fiat dollars. That may be true but it's also true that $50,000 will buy many more ounces at $33 than it does at $48.

    Pointing out technical down side targets, like you do, is being MANY TIMES more responsible to your readers than the endless cheerleading this author is preaching.

  16. humahuaca,

    I think this goes to the deep-seated doubt that we all must have: given the great powers of the EE, will there ever come a day (in the foreseeable future) when we see true market prices?

    Yes, we like buying at a discount, but, unless we believe that the manipulations will one day end, it will all be for nought.

    Maybe it all depends on where each individual is with their physical accumulation strategy. Given the level of angst shown about TPTB's games, it's safe to say that most have already accumulated a lot of physical and are hoping that market prices will arrive soon, to vindicate their decision to have bought in the past. Only if you have yet to buy as much as you want would you be urging TPTB to continue with their games.

  17. Could not help but notice gold topped out at the May new moon. Full moon Tuesday might mark the low.

  18. @ H

    I would try to buy out of a tax sale. The best neighbors to have for education and sharing - Amish.

  19. Hey Mike,

    I'm from KY, I was just there last week. KY is really affordable, and depending upon the location very good framing land. Mostly, soy and corn but other crops grow there pretty well. I have see acres for as cheap a 500.00 per.

    Good luck

  20. Yes, great post. Didn't realize at first it was not Turdles original writing sorry. I know we are rounding off here for ease of reference, but to say we are even %1 of the population seems a little on the optimistic side, but I have to believe that number is growing, and I'll do what I can to help.

    TradingPaper that is also a great article. I know I may be hated on for even bringing this up, as it is a traditional seasonal aspect of this market and everyone keeps repeating 'its different this time' like some kind of mantra, but Indian wedding season is always a supersweet bull rally in both gold and silver. For Indians its a cultural thing, they just buy and buy and hold and hold, and for that I have respect.
    For anyone concerned about the short term condition of the prices, if you can just hold out a little longer, India will be increasing its PM purchasing power by a lot starting in Aug/Sept, their wedding season. There is a reason they are the worlds largest consumers of silver and gold.
    Before I found the Turd here, I used silver as my savings account, and the local coin shop was my bank. Every year I saved up and bought all I could afford in May and June, and then sold (most of)it in December and put the cash in my safe. I did it that way because of a national geographic article I read about Indias wedding season, and a gold buying holiday I can't remember the name of. It worked pretty well. Times have changed of course, I just wanted to say where I'm coming from.

  21. Turd,

    Silver now has the potential to test 29 and 30 area since it did not get above 36... silver finally broke down on its fib 89 day moving average which has held since the august rally.... hold on to your panties ladies.

  22. To all the above posters,
    Now THAT is the dedication, determination, and optimism I love about this blog. My hat is off to all of you!

  23. @ H

    Locate a small parcel with buildings to buy next to a large leasable tract if you have limited funds. Another option is buy a property backing up to public game lands. Try to sign at least a 10 year lease on a tract.

  24. He's right. We're no longer a "free" nation. Our "technical charts" are reminiscent of yesteryear. I daresay however, as much as I love holding and trading silver, you have GOT to trade OUT of the metals and into land, food, etc. WHo's gonna take your gold if nobody is holding it? Second point, all the history in the world will STILL not erase digital money as the new world order of control, if one believes in such things. Great rant. Thanks for the post.

  25. Wait WAIT !
    I can summarize all this.
    Physical gold and silver are now the people's choice reserve currency (PCRC)tm.
    Keep buying and deliver the message:

  26. Thanks TURDle. A Turd, Turdle hybrid.

    Desperate for something to read 4 years ago, having only the classics in a bookcase I inherited from my folks, I saw Atlas Shrugged and was familiar with the concept of Atlas. That's the moment my mind began to first open.

    Yes, the debauchery of the USD will continue unabated. It's sure demise is writ in granite.
    Somewhere it's epitaph is being chiseled in stone.

  27. adding to Pablo's MAJOR points:

    4) The rush to PM's and other hard goods WILL NOT END until the fiat currencies are replaced by sound money.

  28. Thanks for sharing the rant if for nothing else but to allow a voice for some of my own frustrations at the lack of a true free market. I also ready about the Indiana case and I just can't believe how, inch-by-inch, our rights are being stripped methodically away.

    I agree with TurdleGG on the question we all have about whether the manipulations will end one day. I believe, though, that its not if, but when....the math and the law of numbers will eventually destroy anyone or anything standing in it's path as the huge waves of fiat chase fewer and fewer resources. The PRICS are smartly hoarding their acquisitions of resources because those assets won't lose value over the long term. We live in crazy times and its only going to get worse....unfortunately.

  29. erg,

    "only the classics"!? That's like saying you found "only old pieces of silver" in a safe inherited from your folks !

  30. wow, what a great write up. Be great if we had an online convention so CIGA's the world over can band together at the same time for a day while listening to some guest speakers.

    Huma, thought has been on my mind as well - my assumption is gold, silver & the miners are suppressed to avoid investors/citizens worldwide, and especially in the USA, to realize something is up & shift funds away from other paper investments and into the miners or much worse, into physical gold and/or silver.

    "Let sleeping dogs lie" as they might say.

  31. Thanks Turdle.
    Ironically, I re read the Armstrong piece
    on May and June possibilities earlier today.
    I can see why Murphy is so pissed. Most of us hang on every word written by many of these individuals. Some even paying for analysis which we receive for free, (thanks TF, and all of the others here).
    I quit counting the number of times I mumbled "manipulation" while reading it.

    The America we've grown up in is most assuredly becoming extinct. What a sad thought it is.

    The connection we share here because of technology will undoubtedly benefit all of us (and our loved ones) tremendously, and will hopefully lead to a more level playing field in the future.

    I know a little about real estate and property investment, and for years bankers, realtors, and title companies enjoyed a huge advantage, simply because we did not have access to the same quantities of information. The web has leveled the playing field. I suspect that the same is happening in our metals world.
    We've scared them shitless recently, because the informational advantage is narrowing.
    They see it slipping away.
    As Murphy said, it will get worse because they'll become more desperate.
    I've said it before...Stay resolute, believe in the fundamentals, arm your loved ones with information, and keep stacking.
    You will be rewarded. Peace

  32. If you are looking for land, here are some of the best websites (no endorsement for any of them):

    Land and Farm

    Lands of America

    Land Watch

    Things to consider:
    Does it have fresh water?
    Does it already have a well set up for both solar and hand pump?
    What's the lands Corn Suitability Rating (CSR)?
    What crops have been grown on the land in the last 10 years? Does it have a crop rotation management plan?
    Fertilizer Use and Type?
    Pesticide Use and Type?
    Does the land come with mineral rights?

    There's a million questions.... but, as you can guess, it's not just about buying any piece of land.... it's about getting the right piece of land. Hope it helps. :-}

  33. That was a painful read. I find a lot of value in Armstrong's work. Likewise in technical analysis. I guess Andy doesn't. I guess if you don't think exactly like he does you "don't get it." Painful.

  34. Turdle GG,

    True that man. It was sitting within easy reach for 10 years. Literally arms reach. I can reach it now by only raising one cheek. That's what bugs me.

  35. check it out comrades....little icing for the cake today. Can it get any funnier?? :) MANDATED $40-$50 LIGHT BULBS.... you know...the ol' laugh or cry kinda thing

    (must be doing something wrong :( check it at Drudge report...won't let me link...

  36. Turd ... Please add TPTB to acronym glossary.

  37. I enjoyed the Andy rant, but in fairness I think it should be pointed out that Armstrong has addressed the issue of manipulation in the past. As I recall, he quoted Machiavelli's precept that events always occur in the same way because human nature is the same. This is much like Turd's "pattern recognition."

    My suspicion is that Armstrong's proprietary calculations are more related to Chaos theory than traditional technical analysis. If that's the case, then it's not about determining isolated relationships between a small number of variables (e.g. currencies and commodities), it's about mapping the "big picture" (e.g. the ebb and flow of capital and nations)and then just seeing where everything is positioned within it.

  38. I'm looking at land in the Southern Ecuador area. Lots of expats around Vilcabamba. Year round growing season, water plentiful and the climate requiring no heating or cooling whatsoever. Georgeous countryside, laughable property taxes and few restrictions. I understand the local governments are too poor to be in your business, unlike here. I don't speak a lick of Spanish, but will be working on that. Easy path to residency if you invest in RE or a business. Only for people who are willing to integrate somewhat, don't mind things taking 3x longer, and can handle low hygeine standards and seeing poverty. Rather be in the U.S. of course, but it's hard to tell where things will end up - worst case being a Stasi police state of perpetual fear and spying coupled with crushing property taxes and restrictions.

    AGQ down another 9%+ today. Ouch, I feel for anybody that bought in at over 250. I've been quickly in and out of it, mostly at open and only with pure gambling money. Willing to go in big if it gets down to 100-120.

  39. I've been known to disparage ole Clive's work in the past. Thought I'd cherrypick this one, however:

  40. Armstrong is very good at TIMING, but not so much for on price. His price projections are overly simplistic and ignore many important factors.

    Use Armstrong for his timing expertise and use others who are more skilled at their discipline for price objectives.

  41. The Odyssey, To Kill a Mockingbird, The Caine Mutiny et al.

    OK, back to those lovely, lustered metals.

  42. @Turdle

    Thanks for the honest answer, I think you are bang on.

    I personally hold no metals whatsoever right now, so the idea they might knock G&S down sounds great to me.

    Kinda hoping they hammer Vancouver real estate too, but don't really see it happening.

    I hammer this point as I think the real crime is the Fed stealing from the productive savers to reward the profligate speculators.

    IMO focusing on a very sketchy conspiracy theory (why are only PMs manipulated down? Why not stocks? Agricultural commodities? etc etc. Was real estate manipulated down too?) obscures the true crime going on.

    If I was a conspiracy theorist, I would say that "TPTB" are the ones pushing the PM manipulation story, to take away from the much, much bigger story of the confiscation of wealth from hundreds of millions of savers.

  43. @Turd Ferguson

    LOL! I never really appreciated Clive Maunde for his sense of humor before.

    "As we are professionals in the field of market analysis, but not in the field of psychiatry, we of course only have layman's terms to describe the crazed state of mind of the average silver speculator, such as barmy, bonkers, dippy, doo-lally, gaga, garrity, kooky, loco, moonstruck, off their rockers, round the twist, a few slates short of a roof, lost their marbles, mad as a March hare, not firing on all plugs, nutty as a fruitcake, out of his tree, round the bend, stark raving mad, unhinged etc and you may be able to think of some more. They would make great subject matter for a PhD thesis, but we don't really want the men in white coats turning up and dragging them off, despite the title of this article - we need these people to keep buying high and selling low so that we can do the exact opposite."


  45. so does these movements mean the head and shoulders is no more since it didn't go back up enough? does this mean bearish?

  46. @Lady GauGau: TPTB = The Powers That Be (however one chooses to visualize/imagine that -- Fed, EE, banskter cabal, incestously intertwined military-industrial-complex/multinational conglomerates, organized big business, World Bank, IMF, etc.)

  47. I don't know much about land, but I know a fair bit about south america.

    I would avoid Argentina, Ecuador, Bolivia and Venezuela for the same reason: seriously socialist governments that would not think twice about taking your property if things got tough. Foreignors are easy targets.

    Peru may go that route too if Humala gets in, although keiko seems to have a very small (1%) edge. But even Keiko is daughter of a former strongman. Beware.

    Uruguay seems the place of choice, although I believe they also turned left politically recently?

    Chile, Colombia and Brasil seem the best choices IMO, but all a bit expensive of course.

    There are some added benefits to Colombia and Brasil if you're a single guy : )

    Just read Sam Zell is investing in Colombia, Peru and Chile. He's a pretty smart guy. I imagine he will wait for the June election in peru before diving in.

  48. This comment has been removed by the author.

  49. Julia, thats what im looking at as well. thanks for pointing out the new moon top, i am looking for a reversal here, full moon might provide extra push to stimulate the buying. We shall see soon now.

  50. I listened to the link somebody posted about Linsey Williams and he said the House of Representatives overturned Prez Obama offshore moratorium Act last thursday... I don't know much about all this but I did find this article on the web to back it up..

  51. humahuaca said...
    So can someone please explain to me again why it's a bad thing for 'TPTB' to force down the price of something we all (supposedly) want to buy with worthless pieces of paper?

    never had anyone answer yet, and I've asked several times.

    It's been a while since I checked in but if you all recall the Blythe Masters posts it went like this....By june your miners will be GUTTED. She also said you should take these take-downs as a gift and BUY...Don't waste the opportunity....

  52. Julia and 1inbluemoon--could you elaborate n this moon thing--how accurate it is with some examples in the metals market if you can and list anyone of note who follow moon cycles? I've heard enough about it to be interested, but I don't know much myself.

  53. erg,

    this is what got me started on the classics (3 years ago):

    Why Read the Classics, by Italo Calvino.

    One (of many) notable quotes from it:

    "We use the words "classics" for books that are treasured by those who have read and loved them; but they are treasured no less by those who have the luck to read them for the first time in the best conditions to enjoy them".

    My own "best conditions" started when I was 40 years old.

  54. Many states, especially out west, have wood rights and water rights. In Colorado, downstream landowners have the right to walk a creek upstream looking to see if neighbors have any illegal pumps or ditches cutting water out. If you don't buy the wood rights, someone else can come in and cut "your" trees. Find a local who understands the laws and problems.

    There are also areas in Indiana where arsenic is in the well water, but the realtors will not tell you this. I narrowly missed buying a property with this problem. I would have the well water tested before I buy in a rural area.

    I kind of like the south due to the mild winters, but they have tornadoes. Out west, water can be a problem.

    I am all ears for the suggestions with pros and cons.

  55. Man, I tell ya, Im so freaking confused. As I know some of you are as well.

    I cant wrap my head around it. Every where I read about the fear of inflation, Job losses foreclosures, national debt, backwardation of silver, no significant deliveries of silver to the vaults in months And the PMs get weaker and the dollar gets stronger.

    In a few weeks my stack of silver is going to turn to gold or turn to shit. and there are no reliable indicators for guidance.

    Id hate to give back my stack because thats exactly what they want.I feel like Im on a ship with no sails,a broken compass, at the mercy of the currents ,Thats not how I like to roll.

    I dont know where I'm at or where I'm going

  56. @CD ... Thanks. Ticks me off when I can't figure this stuff out. For some reason I had no problem with WTFK ;)

  57. @ turdle

    Great rant and I feel your rage bursting at the seams. But you've got to relax dude.

    You're railing against the human greed that has driven the course of recorded history. It will not disappear in our lifetime.

    Learn to live with the oppression. God has given us love and music to ease our troubled minds.

    Turd and Humahuaca understand. The manipulation by the FUPTB has given us a great opportunity to accumulate wealth at a bargain and better provide for our loved ones.

    The FUPTB crave silver. They will blackmail, drug, convert, assassinate, and invade to get their hands on it. Just ask the Chinese.

    Look at the big picture. Take some solace that the FUPTB speak our language and defend our borders. If the markets weren't manipulated the Chinese PTB would own all the silver in the world -- the US trade deficit in 2010 alone would buy 10 years of world production of silver at $40/oz. The aggregate deficit for the last 5 years would buy them all the silver produced in the world for almost 50 years.

    If our reality was based on an honest system, the Chinese PTB would have all the soldiers, guns and tanks. With that kind of firepower they’d own the world and all the mines. Maybe we'd be better off, maybe not, but you'd have a lot more to worry about.

    So be glad that you understand what 99% of your species doesn't and have the opportunity to collect something the Indian warrior had no use for.

    Now, anybody out there want to trade their silver for some opium or missionaries?

  58. atlee

    your repost was classic.

  59. Sitting BullStones,

    I'm relaxed - no worries, mate! I didn't write the article. A guy called Ranting Andy wrote it. Just like our fearless leader TF, no-one seems to know who he is.

  60. JC
    Moon cycles

  61. @turdle

    Well, cheers then!!! What's the drink of choice Down Under? Used to frequent a bar back in the day that served Sheaf Stout. Good stuff. I'm a Guinness guy myself.

  62. Sitting BullStones,
    not sure of the provenance of Sheaf Stout, but the popular drink here is Victoria Bitter, better known as VB.

  63. Sitting BullStones,
    I'll take that back and please excuse my ignorance! Just found out that Sheaf Stout is brewed in my home town. I hang my head in shame! Have never seen nor tasted it.

  64. The Fed is now buying dollars and will allow the dollar to rally and all markets to fall until mid June when they begin QE3 and take the dollar back down again... this is the new market cycle...

  65. @ turdle

    Googled it and copied below off Damn, its been 20 years since I had one of these or even thought of one. A couple barrels might be a great addition to the bunker.

    Sheaf Stout (Australia)
    I suppose when one thinks of Australian beers, popular culture leads them to Foster’s. I rather think Sheaf Stout is a better exposure to the land down under. A little harsher and grittier than the more “refined” stouts of the West, it’s still a good example of the Foreign/Sweet Stout category (which admittedly can be a bit nebulous).

    And, something about this beer says “Outback” to me, and seems a better embodiment of Australia than all of those lager offerings.

    BeerAdvocate score: 84/100, 92% approval.

  66. PM--how are they buying dollars? They're printing money--they only way they can "buy" dollars is by selling T-bills, which is the opposite of QE. They can't sell T-bills because no one is buying--the largest holder, China, has been reducing its holdings continuously since October. The only reason the T-bill market is holding up is because of Fed purchasing--if they were to allow T-bills to fall, interest rates would rise, causing the banking system to collapse because of the hundreds of billions of T-bills on their balance sheets, and the real estate mortgages they have would also collapse because rising interest rates would trigger more waves of mortgage payment defaults.

  67. F you have to be patient. Backwardation of Silver is a good thing! Backwardation in Gold, well thats another story. Review to yourself what your end goals are, and if that is a stack of physical just keep stackin. If nothing else it will remove your fear of inflation.

  68. Excellent call to post that rant Turd.

    I'm from Canada which puts me (and other Canadians) in the tailspin of whatever direction the US heads.
    Over the last 2 years I've read more about US history then any other country. The old USA prior to 1900 and in some sense even into the 1950's is amazing to read about. There was so much courage and vision to unify and create something truly exceptional...a country where everyone was judged at the same level. It maybe was not perfect, but from what I've read it ranks up there in history in the top.
    Following 1907 and on it is very disturbing to see how things slowly began to change. Power began flowing faster into the bankers hands from then on. There have been some men over the years that have attempted to stand up to the money powers, but absolute power corrupts absolutely. No one person or one group of people can defeat the banking power. They have grown more powerful over the years reaching further into all corners of the globe for power.
    Nope...not one person or one group of people can win...but the truth telling ability of the internet is spreading like wildfire and it is uniting people faster then ever before.
    I believe change will happen. I also believe that in a fight this big though 'We the people of the free world' do not want to take this to the twelfth round. So, I hope that the Internets ability to grow exponentially also means that people will learn the truth faster and word will spread even quicker because I fear the Endgame has a sparing off with each other instead of the old man behind the curtain pulling the strings.
    By controlling the money we use for trade the money power controls us.
    Gold and silver are a fantastic way to limit that power and I hope I one day see this power restored to us. Then as Thomas Paine said "Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it".
    One other favorite quote..."Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable". Scary, but true as spoken by JFK.
    This is a great blog!

  69. One should not drink and blog.
    One should not drink and blog.
    One should not drink and blog.
    One should not drink and blog.

    Ok, rant deleted. Start tomorrow with a fresh and sunny outlook. G'night all.

  70. I've read everything that Armstrong has posted on the internet. I believe he is a student of history because he realized we are doomed to repeat it. His market cycles are all based on humans making the same stupid mistakes over and over again where our collective emotions of greed and fear rule the day - not honor, morality or logic.

    Who knows what the price will be at the end of this correction? I think it's important to not only realize that 99% of the people do not get it but that those same people are looking at those charts and using TA to make their buy/sell decisions. The EE knows this, and they only have to paint the chart in a certain way get the momentum to change and let the greed/fear of the 99% take over...there will come a day when the physical market decouples from the paper market. better have a chair when the music stops.

  71. We must be careful not to allow our confirmation bias to trick us into ignoring facts. It is a fact that the insider's insider, George Soros, dumped the hell out of his gold and silver. He dumped that silver when it was twenty to thirty percent higher than it is today. Soros makes his money using inside information. Soros may know that Treasury rate hikes are coming.

    We must recognize that gold and silver will move down if interest rates exceed the real inflation rate by more than a couple of percent. If the Fed does less QE, and allows bonds to increase yields in this market where it is the Fed that does the majority of buying, then gold and silver will fall further.

    I'm too mentally constipated to sell my physical silver, but I am sure as hell day trading paper silver. I may start hedging my physical silver with ZSL.

    Making the owning of silver a religion is not a good business decision. Silver is a currency hedge. As the currency strengthens, the silver hedge become less necessary. Over the long run, the US dollar will continue to weaken. In the short run, speculating in precious metals can be a money loser for those who pay a premium to buy and later sell under spot when they are forced to deleverage.

    Sorry, Turd, but I don't give much credit to those who post anonymously. Consequently, I don't expect many to give much credit to my anonymous post either. Ultimately, our investments will serve as our report cards. I hoping to receive an "A" and "B" report card, but in this zugswang economy, a "gentleman's C" may suffice.

  72. J said: "Use Armstrong for his timing expertise and use others who are more skilled at their discipline for price objectives."

    Can you elaborate on how to do this? Using two separate sources of decisions seems challenging at best.

    Thx, Jim M.

  73. H.- Look at the Big Island in Hawaii. you can get 3 acres and a family dwelling for 110k if you look around. Lots of real estate now for sale and its paradise with free water from the sky that you store in catchments and growing season year round for vegetables, fruits grow wild and sparsely populated. I do not think that Homeland Security goons will bother with that island, it is just too frickin remote. And you will have zero heating bill if you go solar, plenty of sun and rain.

  74. Dr. J,

    I lived for a time in NE Tennessee, and if I was not in my quiet retreat of coastal Florida, I'd be there.
    All of the necessary tools to thrive, very reasonable cost of living, mild climate, pleasant population, access to culture, higher learning, recreation, and low crime.
    Folks respect property and privacy.

  75. I respect this guy's passion, reminds me of myself a few years ago before i dug in for the long occupation. After the market was bludgeoned jack-the-ripper style a few weeks ago, the 200dma @ $28.50 and the longer-term support at $20 have to be looked at as serious possibilities given the current deflationary "risk-off" tremors we're getting. Hong Kong starts trading the 32oz gold contract in a few days, should be interesting. But we shouldn't forget it's still a paper futures market that can be manipulated, even if only temporarily.

    The longer you're in this game, the more you realize that THE MARKET CAN STAY IRRATIONAL LONGER THAN YOU CAN STAY SOLVENT... which is why heding is always a great idea. For example, "F", the poster above me who feel slost and confused by his physical silver that may be old or shit in a few weeks... think hedging. think options. Let's say you have 200oz of physical silver at a weighted avg basis price of $35. What you want to do, right now, is go buy 2 OCT 2011 33 PUTS @ $415 each, or 2 JUL 2011 33 PUTS @ $250 each. Assuming 20 is your price floor for a worst case correction, you sell when it gets to that level. This way you are not feeling the $ pain on the way down, and (ta dah) you have some $$ paper profits to purchase more physical at $20 and lower your overall basis price as well. You will end up losing money on the hedge if silver doesn't sell off, but you're paying for the zz's at night. This is an extremely simple and conservative example of what you can do with options, but it's sufficient for the purposes of the majority of physical holders. Remember, each SLV option contract represents "100oz's of silver".

    The paper markets are to be used and manipulated just like the banksters use and manipulate the greed and fear of the people (gold/silver bugs included).

  76. Another monster box has arrived. Amen.

  77. Some for the Turdictionary...

    DSB: PM's are consolidating because the Dollar just got a Stink Bid (DSB) on the rumor that QE2 will not be extended.

    ICC: TPTB a.k.a. the International Counter-fitting Cartel (ICC) have decided to renege on US Treasury Debt for past MENA oil.

    MGSH: Most get angry with a carny when he tricks them out their money, but those same people will never notice when a Multi-Generational Sleight-of-Hand (MGSH) removes the basis for that symbol.

    I Fester


    Demand for silver in China and India is up 30 per cent in 2011. In 2010 India consumed about 2,800 tonnes of silver, this year’s consumption is expected to rise to 5,000 tonnes, according to Albanian Minerals trading experts

    Silver investments in India is mostly from rural areas, which account for 70 percent of the country’s 1.2 billion population. The world's silver output was 21,500 tons in 2009. In 2009, global supply of physical silver was 27,000 tons, rising by 0.20% in 2008. The total global production of silver was 29,000 tons in 2010.

    Indian and Chinese investors are buying more silver to hedge market losses. While markets have been uncertain this, year silver has been an ideal investment and has provided huge returns to investors. Silver buying in China and India is set to rise 30 percent in 2011. The industrial demand is one of the factors affecting the prices of and silver in China and India.

  79. California Lawyer, Fortinbras, Joe, thanks for responding to my question on the other thread about the government issued card.

    I hate to say it, but privacy doesn't exist anymore - data mining companies and government databases already now far more about your purchasing habits than you could imagine. Most people don't use that much cash today as it is, so most of their transactions are known.

    I agree that if cash was outlawed and plastic was the only way you could transact, there would be no privacy for buying PMs and the like. That just says, buy as much as you can now before it happens.

    I'm also inclined to believe what ventriloquist said in the other thread:

    "Never going to happen. There are tens of millions of Religious Fundamentalists who are VERY sensitized to the eventuality of the Mark Of The Beast - that without this marker you will not be able to transact any business at all, according to Biblical teachings.

    The minute any Liberal administration announced that the government required an issued ID (a marker, in effect) to transact all business, these people would be skinning their congresspeople alive in their offices."

    As I recall from my reading, prophecy says that some people will rebel against the mark of the beast, and will prevail over the evil in this world in the end.

  80. Oil and silver is so cheap right now!

  81. Turd, I don't know if you read all of these posts, but if you do it is my opinion that the article is wrong. Technical analysis does work in these markets because international arbitrage which moves the dollar lower as we send our real assets abroad in exchange for our dirty debt.

    Which is why we will have inflation in things we buy and deflation in things we own.

  82. @ TURD.
    silver lost close to INDIAN RS 20,000 per kg.That's a huge trimming.Losing close to $25,000.That's a lotta money in Indian Currency.Turd's blog keeps me goin.Thanx a lot man.

  83. I hate these stupid timezones when markets are closed, now i missed the bottom and silver increasing rapidly and i can't even buy

  84. we are having a NICE move up, at last, in silver

  85. Mikael,
    if you trade FX, you can trade XAG and XAU all the time

  86. H, avoid Big Island if you have respiratory issues, vog was so thick 6ft vision last year. go vacay there it may not be not all you think or desire. I know I live Maui 30yrs dumped my piece there 2yrs ago. But if you can handle it's great. And they do get droughts big time.

  87. Why is the guy whining about his money depreciating each day for 9 years? That's what happens when people keep their investments in cash. Had he invested with Buffett in 1965, he would have returns of 325,000%. Yes, three hundred thousand percent.

  88. Gunner24 has been calling for Silver to hit 30.

    How likely is the chart now saying.

    Thinking of buying 10 boxes around there.

  89. Turd, et al.

    What do you think about the idea of transferring ones fiat funds to Swiss Francs?
    I know the best thing IS BY FAR GOLD (and Silver, as an investment / real money), however I think Swiss Francs would offer nice protection against a possible POSX default, and AFAIK the Swiss Franc is backed by Gold et al.

    Please give me some advice.

    Regards :)

  90. This is the 5th night in 6 that Asia has bought up gold over night. It's like a yo-you between $1485 and $1505.

    I sure hope this keeps up. It's pretty easy to trade.

  91. As far as Andy's rant, rant is a rant.
    All one need do is accumulate ag and au physically whenever possible end of strategy. Those who trade want to juice up what they have. Those looking for a "leader" get a mirror (it's got silver in it).
    Andy wants Martin to do more? Martin's flowery language? Someone posted that Martin's tone had changed. Perhaps he lost his flowery prose when he walked out of his 10 year HELL. I wish I heard of Andy 9 years ago so I could have gotten the real deal. Andy could have told me about his encounters with all the finance ministers, heads of state etc. that he helped through all the eco/financial crises of the past 40 YEARS. Please post his letters and repLIES to Rubin et al warning of today's events.
    We are talking about a man who has put his money where his mouth is,that is why he no longer has teeth! How many of you have done time unjustly or just done time or combat. We are at war and I mostly see REMF's,Old Navy will help you with that one. Even if Martin did sell out, which I doubt, who would'nt? Stay inside for a bunch of week kneed cream puffs who sell at the first whiff of correction. Alf stopped writing because he knew people were trading off his essays and he knew they would end up losing their asses, he didn't want to be responsible for that. The PM community will not unify because it's me me me.
    You think this site is free but Mrs.T and the keiki T's pay for it EVERYDAY. When people get mad they tend to strike whatever is in front of them. I think this is what Andy has done, you don't make friends in fights you may make allies, you may make friends with all AFTER a fight. but there is no need for all that as the EE will destroy itself, it always does. Read and reread your Armstrong and every one else because so many are missing so much of these people are saying. My cousin has a pict from Khe Sanh ("class of '68 graduation was a bitch") 111MAF,
    the base sign read, "Freedom has a flavor the protected will never know." As a former 'sleeper' and convicted felon I take serious offense to "citizens" who speak of things they can only imagine and about people they know little or nothing about when their life's work is public. Time for R&R....
    Recognize and Respect.
    A hui hou malama pono kakou

  92. Almost $33,6 did we hit the bottom this time? Or is there more to come?

  93. This comment has been removed by the author.

  94. thank you all for positive comments @ G+S

    to me it seems that both will be dragged lower by equities

    I lost faith for few weeks

  95. Our more succinct article covering a similar point is here:

    And the next link has a funny animation telling you why you should buy physical silver:

  96. Raul V,

    The Swiss Franc has not been backed by gold since 2005. As a result, it is devaluing like any other currency.

    It is therefore rather dependent on the Swiss economy doing well. This means banks. So, if you think that we may have another banking crisis soon, then the CHF is probably not the way to go...

    Buy physical gold.

  97. @required

    A few geo data re-location tips for you, buddy:

    Ecuador is certanly beautiful and cheap but the government now is socialist, careful! (wouldn't choose Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and maybe Peru either...).

    Best choices in SA (not Central America), IMHO are:

    - Colombia: closest to the US, beautiful, but on unsafe side if you are a "gringo", government ok, great growth prospects.
    - Chile: far away but probably the best economically, safest, gorgeous in the south and in mountain ranges, problem earthquakes...
    - Argentina: (Casey will go there), huge, beautiful, but also far away, politically/economically unstable for generations.
    - Paraguay: quiet, low-key, maybe best place to hide (ask the Nazis...), but somewhat poor.
    - Uruguay: not very interesting having Argentina and Brasil close by as options, flat and barren.
    - And the best for me: Brasil, this is a "continent" by itself, friendly people, safe inland, unsafe in the big cities (you wouldn't want to live in Sao Paulo or Rio), great future growth prospects, geopolitically safe since it cannot be attacked thru land by it's neighbors (even if they all teamed up), nor by the first world powers. If you have a kid there you cannot be extradited (see Ronald Biggs story), low pace life, good weather, no need of heating, cheap on the basics, expensive on the imported goods.

    Anyway this is getting to long, please ask me for details if you need them.


  98. Javier,

    you forgot to mention that Argentine women are GORGEOUS. Surely a consideration for some!

  99. I will not trade till September. Enjoying nice summer. Will travel lot to countryside.

  100. The Financial Meltdown cometh....this year. The wise prepare.

    The paper markets are rigged for one reason: to keep folk from buying and holding physical metal.

    The PM community is identified by the buying and holding of the metals. I just bought some more silver rounds. We don't have to agree on timing or prices or TA to be "one", but you do have to own the metal and have it in hand.

    I was waiting for Armstrong's bottom in June but felt the bottom came earlier and felt comfortable buying. The danger of Armstrong is for those still waiting for the predicted June 11-13 bottom to buy. They might be left standing at the station.

    The goal of the PM community is the and own the metal and be careful of letting paper profits keep you from that end.

    Thanks for the post Turd and the discussion.

  101. @e736e346-32cb-11e0-89fe-000bcdcb5194

    You are right, they are, LOL!, but what about Brazilian "garotas" dancing the samba? I am somewhat biased towards Brazil, I lived there, but in terms of landscapes I would prefer Argentina. Argentina is very cheap now, a prime steak, good wine, and desert might go for 10$ or so. A nice flat in Buenos Aires is also cheap now. Cheers!

  102. Javier,

    Not been to Brazil yet, just Argentina and Chile. Buenos Aires is a great city but Bariloche is where I would choose to live in Argentina.

  103. Agree, Bariloche is very beautiful! but maybe too cold for me, cheers.

  104. Speaking of charting..this guy paints a nasty picture for the economy in the near future..

  105. in yesterday's Toronto Star:

    Interviewed were Munk of Barrick, who called the drop in silver a bubble collapse.

    Gallagher of Newgold said silver rose to the stratosphere and a correction wasn't surprising.

    Telfer, the chairman of Goldcorp, was the only one who called it the way it happened - raising margin req'ts & "taking the steam out of the silver market".

    All 3 agree the fundamentals are strong for gold/silver & we'll see higher prices. Telfer was more specific than the former 2 and estimates a gold price of $2000 by the end of the year but didn't guess on how much higher silver will end up.

  106. Oil sands in Alberta "One oil-sands company shut down production as a precautionary move on Monday, with two others are considering the same. "

    Wondering if this could impact price of oil at all?

  107. As a relatively new physical silver buyer who is trying to learn as much as possible, in as short a time as possible, regarding the trading of paper silver, I hope you guys don't mind me asking what is surely a "noob" question. I've learned a lot of the acronyms used here, but I'm not certain what is being referred to when POSX is used. Am I "way off" thinking that it has something to do with the value of the dollar, or am I on the right track?

  108. Clink,

    It's used on this board as a synonym for the USDX (US Dollar Index), which measures the strength of the USD against a basket of currencies.

    POSX = Piece Of Shit (index)

  109. Clink, Turd uses POSX instead of USDX when talking about the USD index

  110. Here are two solid reasons why silver is nearing a major low right now and should be bought...

  111. UK inflation hits 4.5% according to ZH.

    Easter being blamed!

  112. >> a relatively new physical silver buyer who is trying to learn as much as possible, in as short a time as possible, regarding the trading of paper silver,

    I would advise you to read the agonizing posts of the other "new to silver" posters on this board to get a perspective of what is more than likely in store for most newbies, ie financial rape. Commodity market are dominated by very sharp, well connected, well funded operators who have been fleecing the general public for many years. Most likely, the only thing anyone will master quickly is how to lose their savings. Do yourself a big favor, if you want to be a paper trader, us imaginary money for a long while. Make actual trades with your monopoly money and track the results. When you can consistently make positive returns, slowly enter the market. If you start with the same amount of monopoly money as you currently have real money to invest, I'd guess you'll run out of monopoly money long before you'll return positive results.

  113. People, allow me to paste this great commentary from Jesse (COMEX has 32M oz deliverable silver, or 6000 contracts, when there are 123000 contracts open, or 615M oz...!), one of the clearest and best analists IMHO:

    Physical hoarders should not despair.

  114. Now that silver has the hatred and attention of the media again and everyone and their mother is buying ZSL calls on margin, looks like it might be a good time to start adding your core position back if you were patient enough to hang on to your dry powder the past couple weeks (I wasn't). Looks like the sheep will be fleeced in the other direction within a few weeks.

  115. Javier,

    yeah, seems to be a delivery problem, no? Either comex has a serious issue or they're not worried about it - physical from SLV via redeeming shares...

    either way, this will continue to be interesting. If one read costata's post over at FOFOA, he surmises the 'shortage' is, essentially, a myth.

  116. I bet Jesse will take exception to being called an exceptional "analist".

  117. Thank you to all who responded to my question about POSX. And to brokeboater: please be assured that I don't intend to do anything except STACK physical for the foreseeable future. When I stated the "short as time as possible re the trading of paper silver" I was referring simply to learning and understanding the intricacies of the process. As to your second point, I'll have to see if I can find my old Monopoly game. I think it's stored with my Slinky and my Twister game:)

  118. Caramel,

    I do read FOFOA (and all the posts, difficult "headache" read!). The truth is few people must know the true supply/demand numbers, the actual mining is easy to calculate, but what about the real investment demand and the future industrial demand? What is sure is there are no significant above ground stores, except for the scrap. Silver is very difficult to evaluate, but my gut feeling, based on all the reading I do (most significant stuff on the web daily...), tells me that demand will overwhelm supply soon if not already now.

    FOFOA's followers do not believe in silver as money so they might only count industrial, and dismiss the desire of emerging countries poor people to buy silver now and in the future, I think.

    Hugo Salinas Price just posted (KWN, can't wait for his interview, he makes a lot of sense and he is cristal clear) that monetization of silver is quite close to being a reality in Mexico around September, I certainly hope so!


  119. Came across this today. EverBank's new Timeless Metals MarketSafe CD. It is 100% FDIC insured 5 year CD of your principle. If the investment goes to zero you get the initial investment back.

    Your money is tied up for 5 years.It buys
    same amounts of gold, silver, copper, platinum, and nickel. In five years, you get your initial investment back, plus the gain is in each of these commodities. The only catch is the gains are capped at 50%.

    Therefore, the gain is capped at a maximum of 10% per year for 5 years. I think that 10% may just cover future inflation, but it may be good for people who are looking for less volatility.

    What I find interesting is that this bank can get the FDIC to insure this investment. It must cost them increased premiums. That said, it certainly says to where they think the metals will be in 5 years.

  120. Going to be a tough day today. Silver back is against the wall. Really want to see if break out of the down trend on the 8hour chart. Sep2010 trend is holding the floor.

  121. The plot thickens....maybe

    Gordon Brown is heir apparent to the IMF?
    More aligned with American (and Soros) interests?

    Another working theory,
    Because he was the clear favourite to beat Mr Sarkozy, Strauss-Kahn feared he would be subjected to a smear campaign by the President and his Interior Minister, Glaude Gueant.

    Such theories were bolstered by the fact that the first person to break the news of Strauss-Kahn’s arrest was an activist in Mr Sarkozy’s UMP party – who apparently knew about the scandal before it happened.

    Jonathan Pinet, a politics student, tweeted the news just before the New York Police Department made it public, although he said that he simply had a ‘friend’ working at the Sofitel where the attack was said to have happened.

  122. Housing is officially toast.

  123. California Lawyer

    You see correctly, we are quickly becoming a fascist police state. PM’s will provide temporary relief when the wheels come off the ponzi scheme but the end game for them is all buying and selling under some form of electronic transactions. Many will revolt, but the 99% who did not take the appropriate steps to prepare will actually welcome this new system, even demand it.

    Great forum !!!

  124. It's encouraging to see brakes being applied at 33.50. Higher lows and higher highs would be nice from here.

  125. PMs trying to move down on volume as Evil Empire strikes again...
    Really HATE those guys!
    May God give them what they really DESERVE ... prison cells =]

  126. The window is getting really narrow here, bouncing from 33.5-33.6 to 34.3. Turd sure did nail it, we are coming up on the moment of truth here (short-term speaking). I'm hoping for the best, but I'm hedged for the worst. If you are on margin, hedge yourself so you can survive the worst. If you are long-term, sit back and have a stogie, time and the macroeconomic reality is on your side.

  127. You get the sense now that the "brakes" at 33.50 have been rigged with C4.

  128. Let's ride that Golden rollercoaster down now.. @ 1481!

  129. I feel like I just jinxed 33.50. Sorry guys.

  130. Miners getting wacked. GPL 2.69?

  131. Surging British inflation stokes rate hike prospect

    LONDON (AFP) – British inflation soared to 4.5 percent in April, official data showed Tuesday, hitting a two-and-a-half-year high and stoking the prospect of an interest rate hike from the Bank of England.
    Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation -- the government's target measure -- hit the highest level since September 2008, when it hit 5.2 percent, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said in a statement.
    April's reading, which followed a rate of 4.0 percent in March, overshot market expectations of 4.2 percent, Dow Jones Newswires said.
    The cost of living jumped on the back of soaring prices for air, sea and rail tickets over the Easter holiday break. Inflation was also propelled by rising prices for alcoholic drinks, tobacco, and domestic gas and electricity.
    In reaction, the British pound leapt against the euro and the dollar, as dealers bet on the increased likelihood of a near-term hike in interest rates.;_ylt=Ao7AtTflw7QoTKTZBREhXjRvaA8F;_ylu=X3oDMTJ0ZGFkNG85BGFzc2V0A2FmcC8yMDExMDUxNy9icml0YWluZWNvbm9teWluZmxhdGlvbgRwb3MDOQRzZWMDeW5fYXJ0aWNsZV9zdW1tYXJ5X2xpc3QEc2xrA3N1cmdpbmdicml0aQ--

    Inflation is on its way but the Fed cannot raise rates in this non-recovery. If that 33.50 level can hold today, I'm stepping in some more.

  132. Morning all;
    coupla things. Granted, almost all on this site are of a particular mindset, but, doesn't the uber-exuberance of bullishness scream 'market-top'? Twas ever thus. Also, if a new gold backed currency is coming to a global system near you (very easy to make this case I agree), doesnt it make sense "they" will confiscate all privately held for 'the national good'. My point is, if you are buying physical, STOP LEAVING A PAPER TRAIL!!

  133. Ouch.

    Kind of glad I'll be travelling most of the day, and will be away from my computer.

  134. I created a song for all of us silver bugs out there. Hopefully to cheer us up. The fight never stops. From my blog in Shanghai it's called the Silver Liberation Army Anthem. I hope it goes viral. Who knows...

  135. Morning all;
    coupla things. Granted, almost all on this site are of a particular mindset, but, doesn't the uber-exuberance of bullishness scream 'market-top'? Twas ever thus. Also, if a new gold backed currency is coming to a global system near you (very easy to make this case I agree), doesnt it make sense "they" will confiscate all privately held for 'the national good'. My point is, if you are buying physical, STOP LEAVING A PAPER TRAIL!!


    Man in the black suit: Hello I am here from the US governemt and I am here to confiscate your collectables, oh and we will take that wedding ring as well.

    Me: ( Cocks hammer ) what was that again? At that stage John shits going down for sure, and they know it. This is not the 1930's.

  136. Previous low was 32.50...let's see if it gets there and bouncez....

  137. 3 things:

    1. Ranting Andy is just ranting. I understand being upset at where the economy is going and how the metals have had their prices manipulated (like everything else), but to say that technical analysis is meaningless is bunk. Just know that things are manipulated, and act accordingly. Buy low, sell (if you must) high - from either direction. But accumulating physical gold and silver is undoubtedly a wise idea, as it is clear that even though TPTB/EE are very powerful, they are not omnipotent and the currency will someday collapse (and someday isn't boing to be 10 or 20 years from now, we simply don't have that long).

    2. @Blackswan: while you are correct that rising interest rates will negatively impact the price of precious metals (and, for that matter, all commodities), we are simply not going to see interest rates purposely brought to a level 2% above inflation. Such would implode the US economy overnight - there is simply no possible way for the US government to meet its obligations with rates several percentage points higher than now...because it cannot even do so now under ZIRP. Further, higher rates would put a stake in the heart of the auto and housing industries, and lead to an immediate jump in unemployment and the further explosion of deficits on all levels. Every ARM that adjusted would do so to the high side, cutting back even further on discretionary income, and devastating industries that depend on that spending. Simply put, it isn't going to happen as a planned event, because TPTB will fight it like crazy. But it will happen, just before the SHTF for our economy - maybe the Chinese will force it, maybe the global bond market will, but when it happens then you better have lots of beans, bandaids and bullets, because the economy will collapse.

    3. An interesting article that I read on FOFOA is As anyone who reads that blog knows, it is a big fan of gold as money, and not so much regarding silver. Since we don't always want to read from the same script and ignore information that may run counter to what we think we know, reading such material at least allows us to verify the validity of what we believe. Basically, the article says that silver is not quite so limited in above-ground stocks as we think it is - but that there's a developing corner on the FLOW of silver that is possible because much of the STOCK of silver is highly immobile. Further, it goes on to say that while silver COULD be money, the folks that own a large chunk of the 160,000 tons of gold in the world simply won't allow their huge investment in it to disappear (because, as the article notes, gold's value is almost entirely dependent upon perception, as its necessary uses are miniscule in comparison to its supply). It is a long article, but well worth it to challenge your assumptions - and maybe, at the end, to reinforce your present beliefs about the long run direction of the price of silver.

  138. This is exactly what I was saying the other day about Martin Armstrong and even Turd here. I'm sure these guys are extremely intelligent and most times their technical analysis is great but when the manipulation fix is in it just doesn't mean jack. If they want to digitally drop gold to $1,200 and silver to $20 they can and will or run it up to $2k and $80 if that suits them in a heart beat. I imagine what they will do is put as much downward pressure as they like for as long as they like until they feel they've forced even most PM lovers into despair and then they'll load up on the other side of the see saw and run it up. The only thing really to do is buy physical for long term and not really worry about what the market will do in a month, 2, 3, 6 or whatever. Many people are driving themselves crazy monitoring the POSX and watching the price of PMs minute by minute on Kitco.

    Paul, the only thing about FOFOA and those who write there are hardcore Freegold theorists. I personally think there will be no freegold as the governments want to control everything. They are not going to let gold govern but they will govern with gold. Both silver and gold have always been money. Silver has been used more in daily transactions, gold for stores of wealth and larger purchases. I think of them as $1 and $100 as an analogy.

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  140. "desperately trying to paint a reverse H&S"

    Sorry I know this is crude, but is it desperately trying to paint a inverse H&S or are you trying to see it.... It is really hard to see this from the current silver chart. It could easily drop to 30.

  141. Turd,

    I really appreciate the time and the effort you put into these posts, and have a question relating to your summer targets if you have the time to answer?

    Is your target of $1,560 - $1,580 based upon no further QE... and does it change drastically if Benny announces QE3 in June? For the record, I had expected $1,650 - $1,750 before the end of June (based upon QE3 being a certainty), then a dramatic sell-off to the order of 20 - 25%.

    Thanks again!

  142. I'm curious what y'all think of this blog? Is it reputable?

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