Monday, May 2, 2011

Was It Really Just A Week Ago? 2.0

For fun and perspective, here's a link to version 1.0
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/was-it-really-just-week-ago.html

Was it really just a week ago that silver was skyrocketing higher to almost $50?

I wish to remind you again that none of the fundamentals have changed. In fact, they've only moved further in our favor.

Has the U.S. government discovered spending restraint and is moving toward a balanced budget?

Are California, Illinois, New York, Michigan and about 30 other states suddenly solvent and prosperous?

Did the TBTF banks suddenly become solvent, their CDOs and loan portfolios truly valued at par?

Has the Comex opened a hidden vault containing 1,000,000,000 ounces of physical silver, tested and ready for immediate delivery?

Have peace, love and harmony suddenly broken out all over the MENA region as well as the entire world?

If you answered NO to any (all) of these questions, why do you care what the fiat prices of silver and gold are this morning? The prices may not recover to new highs today or even this week but recover they will. Sit back, relax, gaze at your physical holdings and smile.

Here are four interesting, 15-minute charts for you to consider. First up, the POSX. Here's the alleged rationale for selling the PMs and all commodities last night and today:
"The reported death of OBL raises the possibility of new terror attacks around the globe. Soon the dollar will catch a "safe haven" bid. A rising dollar will make the commodities drop. I'd better sell NOW to beat the crowd."
This is so pathetically short-sighted that I'm not even going to comment on it. Besides, this is apparently the best the lousy POSX can do anyway:

Here's one that really baffles me. The PM beating I can understand as The Cartel will take any and all opportunities to accentuate weakness. But crude? Why on earth would yesterday's events cause someone to sell their crude?
Here's gold. Remember, the Comex pit close on Friday was 1556.40. I have a last of 1558.50 which means gold is now UP $2.10 on the day. You should find this very encouraging.
Lastly, here's silver. Give this baby some time today. As we discussed in the previous post, the level of significance is $46.25. IF we can get through there and begin moving back toward 47, shorts will begin to get very nervous.
OK, let's go get em. Expect a lot of volatility but hang in there. Today is going to be very fun. TF

248 comments:

  1. Might need blood pressure meds after last night. Thanks for your leadership Turd!

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  2. Waiting and watching
    Next silver shuttle lift-off may be in progress.
    Roll program under way.

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  3. ...grabbed some SLW calls this am...

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  4. Nice trajectory! 46.10 again...

    Does anyone know how to play silver options trading 24-7? Does that exist so we can get into position during asian trading hours?

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  5. Ginger...Are you getting the sneaking feeling now...Beck is a shill!

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  6. StrongSideJedi

    NYMEX through Interactive Brokers

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  7. Too strong, can't keep it down.

    Hope everybody who could grabbed some cheap physical last night.

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  8. I'm calling my shot; TRE will be the biggest percentage gainer of any miner from here until end of year. And that is after a big run-up already last wwek.

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  9. Turd,
    Could you please comment on or update your calls from last week? ....I imagine that you have pushed some of these dates around a bit and I know you don't have a crystal ball but I would like to know if you still consider the timeframe of this week to rally to $50-$52 ...and whether your timeframe of 5/7-5/21 is still good for a major dip (again)...or did we already have that dip (last night?)

    I respect your opinions and know that noone can call these moves with 100% accuracy but I would love to know your thinking on how these dates have been ..or might be.. pushed around. ??

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  10. That is the prettiest FUBM ever! And gold climbs relentlessly, $1559!

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  11. Netdania showing silver at 46.26+
    with
    USDX at 72.9

    It sucks to be so correct.

    The physical silver and gold are very tight in supply.

    Regulars are left with an option to buy into physical and wait or buy into options and have no physical.

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  12. I just want to say that I feel better now knowing all is right with the world. Things are all fixed now. The recession is over. I look forward to everyone getting new better jobs, gas prices going down, food going down, stocks going up. I can now sell my PMs and start buying internet companies again. Thanks for getting us through this Turd. I will miss your blog since you will likely close it down because it is obvious the PM trade is over.

    NOT!

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  13. I wonder if APMEX is taking a big hit this morning as they were already scrambling to get ASE and all of a sudden there was the Silver flash crash. I guarantee they took a bath in anything they sold

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  14. I'm halfway convinced Turd has a time machine that allows 1-2 hour peeks into the future...

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  15. My academic tutoring pushes me to point out the following. From Hassan S. Khalilieh, 'Capacity and regulations against overloading of commercial ships in Byzantine and Islamic maritime practices', Journal of Medieval History 31 no. 3 (2005) 243-263, there 255:

    "Burial at sea was considered an appropriate measure in order to avoid the spread of disease and possible damage to cargo due to decomposition and stench. It was a prevalent maritime practice in the Islamic Mediterranean sea as well as the Indian ocean to dispose of the deceased person into the sea. Many travel accounts and Geniza letters refer to passengers, merchants, and sailors who died on the high seas and were thrown overboard. The procedure for dealing with a corpse on board was similar to that on land. The corpse had to be washed, shrouded, and embalmed. Afterwards, the congregation would recite the ceremonial funeral prayer before the corpse was buried in the sea."

    Not saying that there isn't anything fishy about this all, but keep in mind that 1) if you bury the guy, you've got a martyr-spot for the coming ages, 2) you can't cremate him because that IS clearly against Islamic law, and 3) as far as I get it from the quick look at the sources my university offers, it's better to get it over with within 24 hours. Combine that with the fact that post-mortem examinations are also prohibited, and you've got a very tricky problem on your hands.

    Regardless of whether it's true or not, the solution to make a burial at sea is neither outlandish nor unfitting; it IS somewhat weird however, but this isn't the first or the last time I've seen officials handling culture stuff strangely. Don't just start questioning everything outright without questioning your questioning as well. It helps to keep things level headed.

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  16. Took a break at 46.25 since I expect another knockdown attempt, but the chart looks great right now. Hoping to get back in around 45.

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  17. I would just like to point out, that if they rolled OBL out of the freezer to try to pump the dollar, it's apparently not working. And if an event of that magnitude cannot fix the dollar, you can surely expect even greater fireworks to come in the next month or two. Increasingly desperate measures etc etc. We have no idea the depths to which these criminals will sink, and what you will see in the next month or two will shock and awe you.

    Hold on to your Turdhats, people...

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  18. repost from previous thread

    @ Atlee

    Thanks :) I hope it works out.... I think we're in for some increased volitility...

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  19. Rick,
    I do question EVERYTHING. ..More and more all the time. ...Something is bugging me about his stance on this. "/

    Turd,
    I parrot Much4Him above.. I appreciate your leadership.......and it may be that it's simply too early in this weird move from last night for you to update your thinking on the patterns going forward. ..I am patient and will wait for you to get a clear picture of what you think about all of this and what it means for pm's going forward. Long run...I know.... we are on the right side.

    Thank You, TF!

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  20. Ginger: All these shenanigans have not changed my mind.

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  21. Just a thought here- if the action last night in a thinly traded holiday market was an obvious raid (and it was), the question is, to what purpose? To allow big shorts to cover, obviously. Ergo, they will be covering. And apparently are, as we type. Woot!

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  22. I love your commentary, Turd. It's always interesting to see folks political bias seep through, though. Spending cuts are not the only answer to the budget problem. Democratically led states aren't the only ones in deep doo doo, budget wise. Until enough folks are able to rise above the partisan talking points and think clearly for themselves, things will continue on down the same road. That's not going to happen.

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  23. are big shorts trading OTC

    if they were to cover their big positions there would be huge volume at public exchanges

    could anybody confirm my thinking

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  24. If anyone wants to discuss OBL without cluttering Turd's blog comments.


    https://groups.google.com/group/tfmetalsreport/browse_thread/thread/2b3200f3de78768a?hl=en#

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  25. Today needs a theme song:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=717xSGLnLWc

    I am starting to see 46.25 in the rear veiw.

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  26. Hey I just want to say I am proud of the way the blog handled this $6 beat down. Got a little messy last night but not that bad. It is not Sunday school.

    I think maybe the govt was going for the 1 2 punch. Ghadfy and Bin Ladin. Missed Ghadfy so rolled out Bin Ladin.
    @ Fleve I appreciate your academic insight. But woold it have been better with such a high profile individual to have a little habeous corpus?

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  27. Thinking aloud here

    Silver goes up, SLW goes down.
    Silver goes down, SLW goes down

    What will it take for SLW to recover at this point? I think the earnings out for Q1 should help but is that enough to remove it from the funk?

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  28. Patiently awaiting Turds "bottom call"...

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  29. On my way to swopping some gold for silver, and hope that by clever bargaining (with a "buy your gold and silver" type) can persuade a 36-40 to 1 trade. I'd be picking up some ASEs.

    On the bin Laden thing, I think there are other more worrisome aspects to last night's theater. Some think it's about the dollar. Some think it's to put a huge loose end to bed. Some think it's about distraction. The latter is the closest; the first true are demonstrably not true. Me (and I've been carefully studying the lies, spin, and misdirection for about 50 years - since before the murder of JFK), I think there's another motive more obvious. When the next "terror" attack comes (and this will be one HUGE black swan) there will be the same old obvious group to pin it on. Osama will be useful in death too... (Sorry for being OT, Turdmeister, but this interesting a group of denizens which you've gathered on your blog seems to know more than most. And those that don't, should.)

    Ol' Michael
    "...be prepared..."

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  30. Turd, Thanks for your comments today. I decided to hold onto my losers from Friday as silver retraces. silver moving now above 46.25 encouraged me to add a few SLV calls for the day. I think I will cut back my weekend long positions.

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  31. I think they want us to be discussing OBL, and therefore we should keep it to a minimum - if it is meant to be a distraction it is a good one - but does it really affect the economy. I saw one news flash that suggested we were now at risk of more terror attacks, and it struck me as a lose/lose moment - in danger if he is loose, in danger if they get him. And then I decided the whole purpose was to keep us unstable and confused and hoping for 'security', and thus a better herd of sheep.

    And the rise is not just the fall in the USD, gold and silver are rising in Canadian currency too - real money is holding its own, as the fiats crumble.

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  32. Wade: SLW has underperformed silver as a rule lately. Today however it is down LESS than silver (at least right now). I'm taking this as a positive sign.

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  33. There you go Turd - $46.51

    I have been comparing my portfolio of miners to my physical holdings - low and behold my physical has outperformed by a fairly healthy margin. I am holding quality miners since last Sept - physical in both gold and silver since last spring - this may be part of the reason.

    I have been thinking about dumping part (or all)of my mining portfolio to accumalate more physical gold and silver. I know this is a completely personal decision but am tired of seeing the miners suck wind some days. Any thoughts? I could use a bit of feedback.

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  34. Take a break from Silver (just for a minute) and lets honor our military! Kill Bin Laden! http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/05/in-honor-of-our-militarytake-your-turn.html

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  35. Re-posted from the end of the last thread.


    Okay, folks. Just a casual observation, along the lines of Edward's post above.

    It is 10:00AM MON and, after a night of 1000 posts and disruption of Mrs Turd's birthday dinner, I see we are down a whopping $1.70 from Friday's close.

    When I got into the silver market I read many things which warned about the "gut wrenching" volatility. You probably did, too.

    To me, gut wrenching would be when you discover you've got pancreatic cancer. Unless you've got your entire family fortune on the line (I certainly hope not) this is just a test of nerve and judgment, but in a game that we are winning. This may not be the last $6 swing we see. Better get used to it.

    Just my .02 Have fun. :)

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  36. I am noticing that when Turd makes a post on his blog there is an immediate spike in Silver prices ... if tens of thousands of traders are following his buy and sell advice then the price movement is like a self fulfilling prophecy.

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  37. Here's an article from someone who hates Allied Nevada. Obviously, I disagree with pretty much everything he says. Maybe when he starts shaving we can talk. DYODD

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/266943-allied-nevada-gold-corp-the-wrong-gold-play

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  38. broke: YOU are the one that sees politics, not me.
    This country has a government spending problem not a government revenue problem. The states I listed are the Big 4 in terms of fiscal issues. That they are predominantly managed by "D"s and not "R"s is of no consequence.

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  39. Thx to the bin laden shill story; cme/crimex liquidation of May contracts not ponying up additional FRN's. My Father got a huge order of gold eagles in at a discount. bankstas so desperate the ilk are banging heads into one another in empty silver bullion vaults. Hope there's enough body bags laying around for the bankers stiff cold rigor-ed corpses. Lot's from former pig flu boogy man the fabricators put out to keep us cowering. Keep accumulating physical gold/silver. Some insanity! Common sense the world doesn't have in bulk; neither silver in reserve!!

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  40. The dollar is sinking. 72.78
    Take a look...

    RishiM,
    Sounds like Turd can cause "movements" in the markets!!

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  41. @atlee -

    Since I'm only a lurker most of the time, I just wanted to say that I'm glad you didn't quit posting when people jumped on you over the weekend. You keep it real and not everyone can handle that. You are about my favorite for straight up trading insight on this blog (Turdle too of course).

    Here's my question I trade my IRA so if I want leverage, I'm limited to leveraged ETF's and LOoong 3-day settlement waits if I play them. I keep a VXX position in case the market tanks and its always red. The volume on the VXX is really high though..

    What' up with the VXX? It spiked on the open a little but settled back. How can it stay so low when the whole sh*ttery is about to cave in the pit?

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  42. RishiM: then an EE underling will be reading it too, to gauge sentiment and better plan attacks on Retail.

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  43. I'm so ashamed. I wet myself and sold half my calls at 46.25. I should have more faith. Oh well, guess I'll have to console myself with the 25% gain in my account since January.

    (exits weeping sheepishly to look for new pants)

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  44. Gold going vertical, and Eric#1 heading out the door. Have a nice day. :D

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  45. TF,
    THANK YOU!.....That's all I needed to know. I hold myself responsible for my investing decisions.. ..but it sure is good to know if you see something I don't. I move forward (and hold) in my positions knowing that ..right or wrong.. we did the best we knew with the information we had at the time. That's all we can do.

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  46. @Fleve & Pining

    Thank you both for your posts. Good to see your rational perspectives.

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  47. First post, I think if I survived last night, I can survive blogging.

    Thank you Turd and also all here for valuable insights

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  48. Wonder if another "event" such as retaliation could skyrocket the metals. Me thinks so.

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  49. Sold my dip buys at the open and am waiting to reload. I'll call this the 'Osama Frostee Freeze Trade'. I very much appreciate the volatility. I am not saying where it goes from here but the fact that Gold and OIL are so strong is very heartening. I do not distinguish between the Crimex, the blatant manipulation of Silver and the shadow government we have. All of this to my mind is related. I appreciate the attempts are rigging price, it only makes me money. I appreciate very much the Turd commentary. Its important when navigating the Cape to have someone who knows how to read a sextant and judge wind levels. Very important.

    Ship A-Hoy!

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  50. Ginger:

    The weekend's price action is only the latest round of sound and fury signifying nothing. NOTHING has changed. Like all past raids, this too shall pass. And also fail :-)

    Like Osama Bin Laden (or whoever that stiff was) slipping neatly under the waves, the latest EE foray will soon just be another forgotten psy-op.

    But hey I know I'll sleep better now that OBL is gone. I'm just so happy that the Worlds Vliian has been off-ed! This being the case, I'm totally sure that every real evil has been vanquished from the world, and our lives. Aren't you thrilled?

    Remember this: PMs will rise as long as paper keeps falling. And especially at this time, would anyone out there like take the paper side of the arguement?

    Didn't think so.

    BTFD, Turd will call it. Enjoy the fire sale. And be sure to ignore the "news".

    It's bad for returns.

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  51. Little bit off topic, but POSX related

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AUDUSD=X

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  52. @BlackHawk

    I second your comments on atlee & TurdleGG. There are a number of others I always pay close attention to, as well. Getting a little more difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff, however..

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  53. @ Black Hawk

    Thanks. Becasue of what happened last night I thought it would be pretty lousy of me to not step up. But thanks. I cant answer your question about the VXX. Others here might like maybe SP if he is out there. But here is a suggestion if you want to trade the AGQ and have the 3 day rule to overcome. For example if your usual position is 100 shares, break it up and trade 25 share lots. You will always have reserve cash so you wont face the 3 day rule. When you want to be all in go the full 100 but scale in and out so you have different trade settlement days and funds coming available for trade over a few days instead of all at once. Hope that helps.

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  54. I'd love to find out more about what this reader sent him....Hmmmm.


    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/05/net-asset-values-of-certain-precious.html

    "Over the weekend a reader showed me anecdotal evidence of naked short selling and tape painting by the major financials on some of the Canadian exchanges that was fairly shocking, but required further investigation. He has been sending this to their regulatory authority and been ignored.

    For a country with such a sound banking system, the equity markets in Canada are quite exceptional. The Canadian exchanges sometimes appear to be like a carney sideshow, making even the Comex look good by comparison. Why they tolerate that sort of thing in such a normally sensible country makes one wonder, as it seems all out of character."

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  55. I appreciate government propaganda and the Crimex price rigging. It only makes me money. I appreciate Blythe and the others. They create lovely opportunities everytime to buy on summer,spring,fall and winter sales. As long as this continues it means I will have more revenue to buy physical each week. They serve me. Its a nice arrangement.

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  56. I don't buy any of this bin laden crap. They couldn't make this one exception about dumping him in the sea? c'mon

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  57. Let me second Blackhawk's kudos to atlee and Turd. I really appreciate the no bs, no sales approach, and the market insight from all the knowledgeable posters here humbles me.

    Thanks again TF.

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  58. FOAGQ has anyone checked the price ratio on the daily reset?

    My version (HZU on TSX) looks to have lost about 1% in that crash. Will take just a wee bit longer to float my boat off the rocks again.

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  59. oldNavy- I was thinking the same about your post, sir. They work very hard to manipulate a thin market and knock a whopping 6 bucks off in a matter of minutes, yet look where we are. We got back 4.50 of that in basically 12 hours. Serious strength.

    Those of you who have seen the Guy Ritchie movie 'Snatch' might enjoy this. Last night I was trying to explain to my market-challenged wife what just happened, and she was simply confused- who is this Blythe person and why is she shorting... isn't the market going up? Finally, I said "Blythe is like Brick Top- she is harsh, vulgar, and is trying to fix the fight and bet on it. Silver is the Pikey, who refuses to go down in a fixed fight, and will ultimately screw Brick Top". Now she gets it.

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  60. Bad news. I forgot to set trailing stop Friday.
    Good news. I bought cheap silver.

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  61. Atlee it takes cajones to trade the AGQ. I can respect that. Not my thing but I give kudos to anyone that manages a trade like that. I'm headed down to the Frostee Freeze now for a sundae and to celebrate.

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  62. Turd,

    Thanks to you & this little 'community' I am not panicking about Silver’s drop, despite having scooped up a lot of 90% dimes, quarters, halves, and dollars these past few months.

    The fundamentals DO matter.

    -Mammoth

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  63. ewc,
    Extremely well said. I bought physical on the dip to the tune of only TWO OUNCES :D ....but ..hey.. that's something! That's all I could do but other than that I held tight to paper positions and and am now firmly in the green again with only a few hundred remaining until I get back to FRYday levels. Your words are always timely.

    size123!
    I feel an instant kinship with you! ;) ....I love those lil pups in your avatar.. Oh my ...how adorable are those Cavalier King Charles Spaniels! ...We want to add a little Blenheim playmate to our home for our girlie, Heidi......but she is 6 years old and rather spoiled in her thinking that she owns the place. I'm afraid that it would hurt her feelings to have to share a lap or two around here. :D

    Beautiful beutiful sweet little fur babies. :]

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  64. 2x Massive BTFD's:

    First ~50,000 @ 10:26AM @ ~$46.47

    and

    Second ~45,000 @ 10:55AM @ 46.73 (pushed it up to $46.86 in 20 seconds)

    Those two orders should put a very nice floor under this thing for the rest of the day.

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  65. I hope that I am not making a mistake by doing this however I would like to offer up a googledocs spreadsheet on options. This spreadsheet automatically updates prices and Bid/Ask using Yahoo Finance data for options.

    My quest is to offer this up as an open source document to allow others to add features and functions. It is very basic but useful. In my own personal version I have more columns such as purchase price, qty etc.

    Please feel free to add any functions to this doc that you feel that would be helpful to others who are trading options in order to book gains and transfer to physical. Since this is opensouce anyone can edit it so please make a copy for yourself if you want to make significant changes. Also please do not broadcast this everywhere as I do not want some jackass to destroy all of the work.

    https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Aq3T4oXMP0EbdFVfelMyZDhsWnBXb0hJamZ4TGpRNGc&hl=en&authkey=CMCMk6wP

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  66. @atlee
    Fight for 47 in play, good call there :)

    Bought small at open dip 44.86. Usual strategy for that - 5min view, RSI 20-30 on solid vol...buy. Same in reverse but sell on RSI 80-90.

    Looking for next fire sale on that strategy :0

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  67. I feel a little better about buying more at 44 last night :)

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  68. Fundamentals are still intact so this fracas won't last and silver will go up just like Turd has predicted. I am looking for $44 to buy additional physical silver. What happening with the EE? They has not made any moves today.

    http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/04/29/buy-silver-today-at-a-discount/

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  69. atlee:
    Just want to say thanks. AGQ 314.00 this morning.

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  70. @atlee -
    I held three 100 share lots of AGQ over the weekend bought in staggered intervals. Stupid when looking into the rearview mirror. I thought to sell one lot this morning to have dry powder, but it's easier to just sit it out the rebound.

    Aint skeert.

    I got in/out of several PSL lots on 4/26 and earned my first warning letter from Fidelity. Two more violations and they will suspend my account trading privilege for 90 days. Can't I just roll it over to another broker at that point? Anybody know?

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  71. Ginger,

    You do sound like a kindred spirit; I hope all the big guys on here will tolerate our doggie gushing for a moment. Cavaliers rule, they are pure love sponges.

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  72. This move is VERY impressive.

    WE have learned a lot in the last 24 hours.

    The shorts are scrambling to cover.

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  73. I really like to see the PM coming back so quickly. This is giving silver some price consolidation in the high 40’s. That isn’t a bad thing given the incredible rise it experienced lately. And the Cartel has just lost more expensive ammunition and blood on the battle ground, which is a delightful thing to se…! Only black spot on the sun is the HUI, which is still doing miserable considering the rise of PM since the beginning of 2011.

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  74. MB - THANK YOU!

    May I suggest you make it read only and keep control of it? Given 10,000+ unique visitors here per day, I wouldn't count on it not spreading.

    If people want to make changes, they can just copy it and store their own copy with read/write permissions.

    I really appreciate you sharing that :)

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  75. BlackHawk-

    If your broker is like mine, if you buy and then hold for 3 full business days, on the 4th day you can sell and have the money immediately available. But if you sell before then, it's another 3 days before the money is available....go figure.

    FOAGQ-

    Feeling better this morning, but still thinking I'll take a different approach to trading, a more longer term viewpoint.... this would have been a beautiful chance to buy except I was already fully in. Assuming this huge volatility is going to become the norm, in the future I may wait for the big spikes to sell, and then just sit it out and wait for the big dips to buy back in.

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  76. @ pailin

    Great trade! hope we blow through 47.

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  77. RE-POST
    I'm calling my shot; TRE will be the biggest percentage gainer of any miner from here until end of year. And that is after a big run-up already last wwek.

    GET YOUR RED HOTS; GET 'EM WHILE YOU CAN

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  78. Just saw Elvis down at the local Krispy Kream. He's bald now and weighs about 450 lbs I'd say but he said he's buying Silver with both hands.

    Gold really strong. Oil too. Thats real truth to me and that's all that matters.

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  79. size123,
    ...Teach them to bury silver in the back yard. :D

    There.... ..just brought it back to the pm's. lol.
    ;)

    ps...'love sponges' is an absolute perfect description.. they demand spoiling. My son says they have 'devils in their eyes' because when he looks at her...he can't resist anything she asks for ...and she definitely can speak! ..I know you know what I mean ;)

    ok.. back to pm's ;) .....your dogs are beyond gorgeous.

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  80. @blackhawk
    The violation will follow you.
    Always Always have dry powder. Never never never be all in.

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  81. Glad I've started reading your blog. Before I saw prices this morning someone emailed me 'silver opens 10% down' and I thought, 'so what?' thanks to your insights.

    FWIW OBL was reported dead almost 10 years ago. You can see how they photoshopped the 'dead' OBL pic here: http://bit.ly/lgCysZ - will be interesting to see what this hoax was fabricated for and its affect on the markets.

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  82. Pailin, what is the RSI?

    Thanks!

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  83. Here we go re-test of $47 again...and... and... $47!!!

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  84. For more on what was referred to on Jesse's cafe go to Stockhouse bullboards EXN thread
    pmseeker response to goldstrike.

    very very interesting. Permission was given to reference the post by pmseeker.

    A must read by anyone upset by the swings of miners.

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  85. This is turning out to be quite a day. My portfolio is green with all the profitable trades I've made this morning. We're seeing some great action with CDE and AUY. GPL is roaring back too.

    I'm going to shut up and just make money today.

    Dave, I wish I had the stones to have bought AGQ when you did. THat was a helluva trade.

    Makes some fiat, everybody!

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  86. @ Altee

    This was my mistake. I was all in and couldn't take advantage of the dip yesterday. I'm a noob, but i'm learning a lot.

    ReplyDelete
  87. The artificial selling has brought silver and gold right back to where they were pre-robbery, I mean forced liquidation.

    Yep, definitely need to be worried about a top when 12% drop in silver is made up in the next 12 hours.

    Higher we go...

    ReplyDelete
  88. @BBL
    It's a technical indicator that helps identify overbought and oversold exhaustion (at the end limits). I find it works if you want to get in and out in a hot market...like XAG. Here's a good deep explanation - http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:relative_strength_index_rsi

    @atlee
    We be through :)

    ReplyDelete
  89. I wonder if MF Global margin hikes announced very late Friday evening had something to do with the immediate drop on market open on Sunday. What volume of Globex trading goes through MF Global? I tried calling the company, but they, as I expected they would, stonewalled me with multiple transfers to various representatives who would not speak with someone who is not an account holder. If I had silver futures contracts, and Margin increased by 75%, I'd have to sell like 40% of my position at a minimum. I know I would do that as soon as I possibly could. In a thinly traded market, it could create a crazy stop loss/raid opportunity that we saw yesterday. Could TD Ameritrade/ThinkorSwim margin increase announced just hours later (decision made last PM) have a similar effect sometime today, or did it account for the second dip that occurred b/w 9pm and 11pm EST.

    Looks like the price of silver has only been upupup since OBL death was announced by Obama. If anything, news of his death has been very bullish for everything, including silver.

    In retrospect, I wish I had BTFD, but I have no confidence we won't see more brokerages raising their margin limits as well.

    Congrats to those who rode this now $5 recovery, it's just fucking insane (sorry for the long form vulgarity, but I think on a day like today it is warranted).

    ReplyDelete
  90. Well, now I'm double-pissed at Forex.com for not letting me market buy 42.75..dammmmmmmit! My 44.86 is indeed sweet, should have doubled up, but that's okay, there's always another trade. I will be patient and enjoy that 47 is in the rear-view again (at least until 1:30 COMEX smackdown :)

    ReplyDelete
  91. They threw the kitchen sink at PM's and this is the result? They are fucked.

    ReplyDelete
  92. @zzz28

    Great trade man!! Its all you buddy. You pulled the trigger. Good on ya man!

    ReplyDelete
  93. size,
    Last doggie post...I promise (Because you're right...we may get yelled at and you're new and I don't want to be the source of you leaving!)

    ...The photo on my avatar now.... as a puppy.. we were outside on a hot day.. She picked up my son's paper cup and brought it to me. LOL.. I know she didn't mean it as being thirsty.. but it was funny. :D

    (you don't have to respond.. ..I just love those pups of yours.. ...I will behave on the blog now);)

    ReplyDelete
  94. @SSK

    Thanks :) but I feel like I'm playing in traffic on the Long Island Expressway by trying to trade AGQ.
    Still, I'm more comfortable hold PM's than some the QE bloated equities. Good trading !!

    ReplyDelete
  95. Great post goldstrike. In the last few minutes of trading AUN did the same thing. Crazy buying for anything on the ask. I spend 10 hours a day studying this stuff and the naked shorting is a cancerous plague. I don't have the answers as the regulators are slow to respond. Below is a company that is doing something about it as they feel they owe it to their shareholders. I've talked to the management and they are making progress working with the OSC. It is time consuming so they've hired people to track every trade. As you will see they have found out that their stock has a 69% FTD [fail to deliver rate]. That rate is likely a good representaion of what is happening with most juniors.
    Most companies either don't get it or chose to ignore it hoping it will go away. It's very obvious industry wide that with escalating precious metals prices the shares should follow. Wrong the naked shorting has increased. I beleieve it will change one day, but have no idea when. Here''s that news release from BLM which show their naked shorting [TFD], I'm not recommending this company just pointing out the story....



    In follow-up to news in Stockwatch on March 21, 2011, a review and analysis of trading and settlement data during the month of March, 2011, revealed a significant increase in failures to deliver (FTDs) in Barker Minerals Ltd.'s public share market. During this time frame, reported stock sales at the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and alternative exchanges, Alpha and Pure, far exceeded the net delivery of shares for settlement through CDS. The total net sales in March of 4,421,101 shares exceeded the total net settlement at CDS by 3,051,351 shares, suggesting a settlement fail rate of 69 per cent.

    A summary of the trading and settlement data from November, 2010, until March, 2011, is displayed in the chart. The chart shows an increasing number of FTDs in conjunction with a significant increase in trading volume occurring in March. The data demonstrate that a significant amount of the volume is simply "trading volume," whereas the "net trading activity" is actually shares changing ownership.

    ReplyDelete
  96. Wow,
    47.25 was last Friday's low and now we are challenging it!

    Where is the white out.
    At some point here I should exit with my skin and wait for this 2nd test of support.

    ReplyDelete
  97. $47.15. Technical damage looks to be repaired. $1573 in gold. At worst I would think Silver trades in a band between here and $50 for a little while.

    Ta,

    ReplyDelete
  98. And timing being what it is...we're 47.33 XAG, 5min RS I80 and low vol, heading towards noon. Gee, I wonder what comes..next???

    With glee I look forward to a dip back to 46/46.20 range.

    :)
    :)
    :)

    ReplyDelete
  99. Dave,

    I hear you. Trading the leveraged metal ETF's ain't for everyone. I have to confess, my track record trading them is less than stellar.

    ReplyDelete
  100. @ #1 Eric:
    Pretty negative comments on ANV today at Seeking Alpha.
    Sell in May for me.

    ReplyDelete
  101. what an awesome comeback shiny has made today so far. the ee is watching mouths agape.

    ReplyDelete
  102. This market is still really thin.
    No London, and No Hong Kong.

    In any case its still really satisfying to see such a nice strong FUBM in this market.

    ReplyDelete
  103. I don't think the EE is fucked. They covered a sh*t load of shorts over the last 12 hours. That's in addition to the sh*t load they covered last week.

    There is big time EE short covering happening. Very skillfully done. The large speculators are the net sellers during this time.

    We'll have to wait for the COT to verify, but seems to me to be the case.

    Amazing.

    ReplyDelete
  104. if i'm understanding right, i'm seeing where people were buying when physical silver hit its low. How can i do that?

    ReplyDelete
  105. @Paul Breed
    You are correct, but I think those missing players cancel each other out as HK is bullish and UK is bearish :)

    ReplyDelete
  106. Ok. So if you bot AGQ this morning real good and you dont have to worry about the 3 day rule, a trader would take some profit right here and look for the nxt dip. Dont come all out but get ready. It is not all butterflies and rainbows.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Titus,
    Sorry dude covering shorts opened way way below 43-47 is no way to run a railroad. They are fucked.

    ReplyDelete
  108. I can't seem to post rest of piece but it is being investigated.
    permission was given. don;t want the wrath of Turdistan on me.

    ReplyDelete
  109. Ginger,

    Cavaliers are 24K. See, I made it about PM's.

    How are your positions holding up? Bought some more SLV on the dip and feeling better now about it all.

    ReplyDelete
  110. firesine -- there are several online PM dealers whose prices are pegged to the current market price. Apparently APMEX was cleaned out of physical inventory last night/early this morning.

    ReplyDelete
  111. Jayhawk,

    There is something amiss with the TMXMoney (Canadian exchange) as the index for gold frequently is "frozen" for the first and last trading hour of the day. This is a more and more frequent problem lately.

    Thanks for the link.

    Turd, sorry the flying monkees messed with Mrs. F's big day (and belated happy birthday to her).

    A great FUBM is underway.

    Z

    ReplyDelete
  112. Stupid US Mint
    A 1 oz Eagle is $1 Fiat while a 5 oz "America the Beautiful" is $.25
    Wouldn't it make sense to put $5 on it?
    Rant over.
    Nice to see Silver clawing it's way back up

    ReplyDelete
  113. What a day, the volatility continues!

    @MB

    Good stuff with the spreadsheet. If you incorporate the google clock function into your import hmtl code you can get the spreadsheet to update every minute as opposed to every hour. See the code in the spot gold and silver price boxes in the NAV spreadsheet for reference.

    I think that as a group we can collect some really valuable data using these google finance tools that might not be available elsewhere. I encourage everyone to play around with them as thry makr great watchlists, data trackers, etc.

    ReplyDelete
  114. size123,
    (lol)

    I am down 6% on the day on SLV ...not bad considering all that is/has gone on overnight. I am relieved. My options account is up 250% since I started trading options 3/30...barely over a month ago. ..Not due to expertise on my part..that's for sure. Due to being here. ...I'm crossing my fingers that this upward trend will continue..but whether or not it does..I am holding my positions for now.

    I envy you adding to your SLV positions this morning! I really wanted to but had no $ to go for it. Smart move that will hopefully pay off for you!

    ReplyDelete
  115. If you can control and therefore predit the market then you should really be making money out of whatever happens. Surely the EE is making a fortune out of this volatility?

    ReplyDelete
  116. Las Night I was afraid
    I was petrified
    Kept thinking I could never live
    without SILVER my side
    But I spent all the night
    thinking how you did me wrong
    I grew strong
    I learned how to carry on
    and so you're back
    from outer space
    I just walked in to find you here (47.20) !!!!

    ReplyDelete
  117. Pat,
    Per the last COT, the commercials reduced their net position by 20%. I would not be surprised if they just did it again. This churning between $45 and $50 has mostly been large speculators selling to commercials.
    I'm not saying that they made a profit, but to get such a large reduction in a huge short position without sending the price to $100 is pretty good for the shorts.
    Also, I think it's good for the health of the Comex.
    But we need to see the next COT. This is half conjecture.

    ReplyDelete
  118. I love this drop. Straight up price is just not normal.

    ReplyDelete
  119. Pailin, where do you find the XAG/USD RSI graph?
    Are you using the FOREX Trader PRO?

    ReplyDelete
  120. @BBL
    I hate using PRO, too much trash to remove to get the screen to be workable. I use Netdania charts - http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx

    ReplyDelete
  121. From ZH...

    Iranian PressTV reports that Israeli jet fighters have reportedly conducted drills at a military base in Iraq in order to strike targets inside Iran. While the Pentagon has so far denied this development which could easily send oil to $200, we are more curious what Israel has to say, or do in response to such allegations.

    ReplyDelete
  122. gold and silver being "walked" down. Looks like typical EE to me.

    Serious dip coming?

    ReplyDelete
  123. Ginger,

    Good for you. So far I am almost back to even on the SLV May's, I don't like the time pressure though, may bail before long.

    A question please. Is there a rule of thumb for when time decay kicks in bigtime, like maybe two weeks before expiration, a kind of warning signal?

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  124. atlee,

    So if you "took some profit" what kind of dip do look for to get back in? Personally, I'm generally horrible trying to trade the daily wiggles.

    ReplyDelete
  125. @sumo
    re: serious dip
    Seems likely. Per Friday, it may not happen for COMEX, maybe GLOBEX?

    ReplyDelete
  126. @ Sumo

    Currencies dropping a bit against USD, looks just some usd covering (check AUD for instance).

    ReplyDelete
  127. So the dip should take us to where? come on you know...46.25ish area. If doesnt hold then 45.50.

    ReplyDelete
  128. Liberty or Death: Don't know about volume, but would be nice to know what THEIR book looked like before they raised the margin to 1.75x the CME.

    Who runs this firm now? Corzine? Ex-Goldman?

    Hmmmmmm...

    ReplyDelete
  129. @atlee
    You've been exceptionally helpful this morning, in general I'm thinking similar to you (but lose more, more often :), but I bet some lurkers are getting tremendous value. Keep it up!

    ReplyDelete
  130. Old Navy, Ginger, or any who trade options. I just started dabbling in SLV options. Is it possible to trade them outside of normal market hours. I use Interactive Brokers

    ReplyDelete
  131. Snagged 6 rolls SAE last night from Gainesville while spot was $44.23.By the time they deliver (May 27), I'm saying we are over $50.

    ReplyDelete
  132. Time for a good joke to lighten us up

    From Larry – And The Truth Be Told!

    Everyone concentrates on the problems we’re having in Our Country lately:

    Illegal immigration, hurricane recovery, alligators attacking people in Florida …..
    Not me — I concentrate on solutions for the problems — it’s a win-win situation.
    * Dig a moat the length of the Mexican border.
    * Send the dirt to New Orleans to raise the level of the levees.
    * Put the Florida alligators in the moat along the Mexican border.

    Any other problems you would like for me to solve today?

    Think about these:

    1. Cows
    2. The Constitution
    3. The Ten Commandments

    Cows:

    Is it just I, or does anyone else find it amazing that during the mad cow epidemic our government could track a single cow, born in Canada almost three years ago, right to the stall where she slept in the state of Washington? And, they tracked her calves to their stalls. But they are unable to locate 11 million illegal aliens wandering around our country. Maybe we should give each of them a cow.

    THE CONSTITUTION:
    They keep talking about drafting a Constitution for Iraq …why don’t we just give them ours? It was written by a lot of really smart guys, it has worked for over 200 years, and we’re not using it anymore.

    THE 10 COMMANDMENTS:
    The real reason that we can’t have the Ten Commandments posted in a courthouse is this — you cannot post ‘Thou Shalt Not Steal’ , ‘Thou Shalt Not Commit Adultery’ and ‘Thou Shall Not Lie’ in a building full of lawyers, judges and politicians; it creates a hostile work environment.

    ReplyDelete
  133. atlee,

    Is 46.25ish based on a fib retracement?

    ReplyDelete
  134. size123,
    I am certainly still learning too.. ..especially about the time decay issue. I have read responses here by others who say that they don't get any closer to expiry than 3 weeks out.. still others go closer. I am NOT SURE of any right or wrong answer. Here is a link for you. I am currently reading through this entire site to glean what I can. ...On this particular page..scroll down about half way and you will see some Q&A about time decay. ..You can also do a search from this page for whatever terms you want to type in and get some other (hopefully) beneficial information about the time issues.

    http://www.optionsuniversity.com/blog/?s=time+decay

    I hope it helps as I am certainly right there learning with you!

    ReplyDelete
  135. @Tim -
    May options only have 3 weeks left on them (May 21), so they are starting to lose a lot of their value each day as the expiration approaches. Their price will jump around a lot more as the price of SLV moves, but if you plan to hold them more than a day or two, I would start looking at June contracts instead.

    As for strike price, in-the-money options tend to be more stable while out-of-the-money ones tend to exagerate the price movements a lot more.

    Personally, I like spending a disposable amount of money on options that are about $2-$4 out of the money as they tend to pick up a lot of value as they move closer to being in the money. However, if SLV dips, it can quickly wipe them out, so I never spend more than I can afford to completely lose.

    Also, make sure your heart is healthy and your blood preasure is in check. It can be a crazy ride watching those calls lose half their value in 30 minutes, only to explode the next day, and crash again the next morning.

    ReplyDelete
  136. Grab a balloon, suck in some helium and sing with gusto, "Follow the yellow brick road..." But, pay no attention to the man behind the curtain! Me thinks the OBL circus is nothing more than massive mis-direction by The-Great-and-Powerful-Oz (ounce?). Anybody else find it astounding that the media hasn't breathed one word about last night's silver action????

    Hilarious word verification...GASES!

    ReplyDelete
  137. Many thanks Ginger, will check it out. There is a heck of a learning curve here, but it is good stuff, straight shooters.

    ReplyDelete
  138. Guys if you are starting with options, buy IN THE MONEY and atleast several months out. Otherwise you'll get blowed up on your first trades and consign the whole thing to the dustbin. Also just buy a few contracts starting out.

    ReplyDelete
  139. Flaunt
    proprietary. my own stuff. short version. Silver likes to trade in boxes. Look at a five hour live chart. Top of that box is right there. It is also right about where shor term 5 and 10 minute bollinger bands are. there is also some short term Ma there. One day when Turd lets me post a chart I will share

    ReplyDelete
  140. Pailin, thanks! I also use netdania charts, great for volume, but how do you open an RSI chart there? This would be fantastic, despite the 5-6 second lag between netdania and forex buy/sell price.

    Also, do you have an explanation of large volume in small candles - sometimes almost a short doji candle gets tens of thousands volume - is this some kind of quenching of large buys by the EE?

    I appreciate your help and insight! (and feel for your and everiones loss yesterday, especially the margin called in the lowest numbers yesterday night). By the way I also couldn't use forex to buy at $42.70-43.xx yesterday. It was OK when I checked later at about 44. Didn't buy then, unfortunatelly. I am still out, that was too scary. Hope for an 46 now to buy.

    ReplyDelete
  141. Interesting, very Turdist, article on the ineffectiveness of EE price suppression.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/266844-the-empire-strikes-back-against-the-silver-price-rebellion

    ReplyDelete
  142. Rut Butt, (ok..that felt weird to say:D)

    I use optionshouse and no..I cannot trade actively after hours. I can place a trade but it is queued until the next trading morning at market opening. ...I checked this out last night when the price had dropped so low. :|

    HAVEFAITH,
    LOL...on all of it. I think a good easy laugh is good medicine for all. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  143. atlee,
    Thanks. I don't have a 5 hour but I think I see what you're talking about on the 4 hour. Looks to me like it also likes bouncing off fib retrace levels.

    ReplyDelete
  144. Obama on TV -> beatdown of PMs.

    ReplyDelete
  145. Hey guys this is a good day, I had a stink bid in at golddealer.ca and they hit at 42.25

    Haha I bet they took a bath on that one!

    ReplyDelete
  146. @Rut

    I do not think so. They trade & settle on options exchanges that have US daytime hours. Perhaps there are ways around that that I am not aware of. I can trade only 9:30 - 16:00 ET. That's not all bad, though. You need to think and plan your trades and it is best NOT to be doing that when the market is open.

    ReplyDelete
  147. I can't figure out how to get to the EXN discussion on Stockhouse regarding the stuff Jesse's blog talked about.

    Anyone provide a link? TIA!

    ReplyDelete
  148. Has anyone on this blog taken delivery of PM at any one of GM's three vaults?
    I'm going to HK next month to see if my silver is in their ViaMat vault.

    ReplyDelete
  149. @ Ginger

    Don't want to beat a dead horse but it gets more and more bizarre...From Forbidden Knowledge

    This story is too big to ignore. I didn't want to get dragged into it
    but the manifold implications are staggering...

    Robert Stanley, weekly correspondent for Washington Times'
    investigative radio, reports that the Certificate of Live Birth, released
    by President Barack H. Obama on April 27, 2011 is a forensic forgery.

    Video:

    http://www.forbiddenknowledgetv.com/page/1603.html


    The video linked below proves that the document posted on the White House
    website and downloaded by thousands of people was a forgery, beyond a
    shadow of a doubt.

    Video:

    http://www.forbiddenknowledgetv.com/page/1600.html


    Obama's campaign website was so breathtakingly high-tech, that I find it
    hard to believe that he would have people around him who aren't more
    technologically-savvy than to post a document that clearly shows the
    several layers of tampering that was done to it, unless this is a malicious
    fabrication.

    Was the placement of such an obvious forgery on the White House website
    part of an intentional character assassination or was it really just a sloppy
    mistake on the part of the White House, in their provision of a falsified
    Birth Certificate?

    The implications of the latter are far-ranging. As Stanley says, what little
    public trust remains will be gone if it is found, after all of the years of
    stonewalling and all of the millions spent in trying to avoid the issue, that
    that the President was not born in the US.

    I hope we get to the bottom of this soon!

    ReplyDelete
  150. Rice left a gap on the open this morning after limit up last week. Rains in Arkansas hurting whats been planted, delaying the planting on what hasnt been planted. I'm not trading it, but others on this blog have expressed interest in it before. Don't be short in this thin market.

    ReplyDelete
  151. size123,
    This is a better link/better info..

    http://www.optionsuniversity.com/blog/?s=theta

    ReplyDelete
  152. @BBL
    RSI is availble under STUDIES dropdown. The long tails are just an indication of how well the strategy works, the fat part identifies open/close result of the period (red lower close, blue higher close). The length of thin candle in one direction or the other shows the absolute exhaustion of the move (really dangerous to give much heed on short periods though, like 1min, 5min, etc!) and then the snap back from the depth of the move. You want to find a way to BUY at those period lows and SELL at those period highs (not the same period though, if short term like I use).
    Remember you're trading a trend, but there is always a larger trend out there, so you want to be careful to not misread and get "stuck" buying low in a small trend but ultimately high in a larger trend. Get me?

    ReplyDelete
  153. SK:

    Ha ha. Made me look. :)

    The prez is talking about precious MEDALS, not precious METALS.

    ReplyDelete
  154. thanks Pailin for the RSI tip, what parameters do you use for that indicator ?

    ReplyDelete
  155. Pailin
    Are you using 14 on your RSI.

    ReplyDelete
  156. @atlee

    Join the google group

    https://groups.google.com/group/tfmetalsreport/topics?hl=en

    And then you can email an attachment to the group and share your charts.

    ReplyDelete
  157. RE: TRE

    I agree it is a stock to accumulate. I liquidated the shares I had last week to free up funds, since it wasn't doing anything. What accounts for today's sudden signs of life? Did the big shorts get extinguished?

    ReplyDelete
  158. Yes, 14 on RSI, it's default and good enough for how I work. You can/should tweak as your own strategy develops. I'm still tightening how I do it myself, so share what you find with everybody.

    As you guys are looking at what I do, please also look backwards in the chart and see if what you're thinking worked in the past for buy/sell points. More importantly, look for where it didn't work (last night aside!) That's where your highest risk is and will help you identify how much cushion you need when working with leverage.

    I'm not intentionally holding things back or anything, but some of my strategy is gut-check and isn't scientific. If the RSI, vol, and price resistance/support all look good, I still do a gut-check to see if it "feels" right. That's not scientific, and sometimes the answer is related to how many other positions I have already, how much I've already scored that day/week/month, etc. So I can't really put you in there. Something you'll need to develop yourself.

    ReplyDelete
  159. oldNavy- Thanks for the article- seriously, doesn't it sound like the author reads this blog regularly? He even uses Turd shorthand descriptive terms, like the Evil Empire, the Dark Side, describing those taking delivery and speculative longs as 'the rebellion'... plus the entire article is basically the long view of what TF constantly describes as 'the fundamentals'. Not proof, by any means, but the coincidences are interesting. Wonder what his nick is here... ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  160. HAVEFAITH,
    Weird stuff.

    Like you.. I don't know if we are victim to a huge scam here or not. At this point I have come to realize that it doesn't even really matter because nothing will change about who is in power/control. ..By the time anything could be proven.. all the damage to the country will have been done ..making it a moot point. EVEN IF the birthers are right ..and can somehow prove it and get the media to take up the issue (not a chance) ...the damage is being and has been done. Unwinding the damage will be for those left to rebuild. We have to 'prepare accordingly' like TF has said.

    It will be us who will have the heavy lifting to do whether or not this president was constitutionally empowered to be president or not.

    So much corruption is going on ..on all levels. DO NOT let yourself get too immersed in this. THE BEST that you can do is prepare! ..I know you know this.. I am nobody to give advice. Keep your smile and HAVEFAITH! ;)

    ReplyDelete
  161. Pailin, I got you, I am making short trades - 40-50 cents, as it is too dangerous for a newbie right now, I don't feel confident at all.
    I follow you on the trend hint - this is why I am so pissed I didn't buy yesterday at around 11 pm at 43.25. Oh well, it's hard for me to pull the trigger.

    Here comes our diiiiip!

    ReplyDelete
  162. RSI is like a huge megaphone alternating between OMG BUY! and OMG SELL! with equal fervor :)

    ReplyDelete
  163. Good read from Denver Dave:

    http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2011/05/pure-criminality.html

    "...I know based on my 25 years of experience in this industry that the people who work on Wall Street and rise to the top get there by lying, cheating and stealing to whatever extent they can. The amount of money JPM is losing on its silver short is "blood" money. Expect this aspect of the game to become even more intense..."

    ReplyDelete
  164. @BBL
    Yep, dip but not raid. Maybe no raid today?
    It's not confirming on volume, just sumo stairsteps :)
    I'm standing to the side right now, just a single small position, waiting for a volume dip to buy good again.
    Better to be skittish and lose weak opportunities than trigger-happy and take hits. Particularly when the slightly larger trend is neutral to negative (in other words, we're not testing 50 before lunch :)

    ReplyDelete
  165. @Inca
    Not rich enough for me on volume. RSI was good at 30 but not the vol. We're not done here yet (my opinion). 45.40 is looking likely if a raid or more lower highs + lower lows (aka stairstepping down :)

    ReplyDelete
  166. Pailin: it looks like reconnaissance to me. EE is testing where the support is, gathering data for a bigger raid.

    ReplyDelete
  167. atlee . . . you're generous instruction about silver trading in the 5 hour box and 5min/10min bollinger bands just quadruped my understand of how to better time short-term entry and exits. I'm underwater from my Friday afternoon buy and looking to generate more dry powder (trading SLV). Your comments very helpful.

    ReplyDelete
  168. Pailin,

    I also use a RSI in the same manner you described but then filter it through a Slow Stochastic. I have found pretty good success using these two in conjuction with eachother to verify buy/sell opps. The slow stochastic might not hit as many times as the RSI but that is due to its algo being that its a average of an average, but I find the buy or sell timing of it pretty darn reliable. Just thought I would chime in..any thoughts

    ReplyDelete
  169. @ stephen u r welcome! Just so u know now rather than later I took day trade profits at 47. I am back in again at 46.25

    ReplyDelete
  170. What chart site are you guys using to get the 5 min. bollingers? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  171. for you turd - from bix weir

    For those of you who have not read this report prepared by The US Office of Naval Intelligence (in my opinion) you MUST READ IT....all 381 pages of it to become an INFORMED CITIZEN:

    September 11 Commission Report
    http://www.scribd.com/doc/16970135/September-11-Commission-Report-Revised-December-2008

    ReplyDelete
  172. Silver naked shorts are dead as the dollar. We just haven't found all the bodies to bury yet! It will be a classic burial of real money gold/silver taking down fraud; paper fiat ponzi as always.

    ReplyDelete
  173. if we can get thru 46.60 then 47 here we come again. Just got thr it

    ReplyDelete
  174. atlee . . . TY again. I am looking to sell some around 47.25 since the 5 min bollinger seems to be predicting pretty well right now.

    ReplyDelete
  175. hi all, been lurking since before Turd's bottom. Just had to say hi, thank Turd for saving my life in metals! and thank atlee, you are FAB!!!

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  176. OHBOMBA SIN LADEN is ALIVE!!!!! didnt pull the trigger in agq at 309 today was sittin her lookin at it just didnt pull the trigger. I see oil is back where it was before the oh so yesterday bs news

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  177. @atlee
    Good grab, I was a little chicken, looks like you'll get 47 again (my target would be 46.90). RSI is getting a little lofty again at 70. One more pop up...

    @sumo
    I agree, it's like Chinese water torture, drip, drip, drip at 46.40, then 46.20, then 46..etc.

    I think we've got 45s again in our future, unless overnight crew goes nuts w/buying and takes out 49 or something :)

    @Back Seat Driver
    I've been meaning to start working with Slow Stochastic. Since I'm a little bored right now I'll probably start checking it out. What signals do you look for there? Or is it just a further confirm against primary vol and RSI "go" signal?

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  178. very good chance we see 47.20 again

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  179. finally internet access. and looks like not much has changed :)

    @blackhawk
    about VXX and VIX, these are markers of how expensive OTM puts on the SPY are (not exactly but kind of). all it tells u that they are barely budging is that most investors/traders do not think there is a near-term risk of market crash. i think this is a reasonable assumption in the near term, POMO continuing and no one wants to "Fight the FED"....anyways for hedges i usually buy OTM faz or sds calls or OTM spy puts, these are "Black swan" protection only though.

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  180. you have to run a slow stochastic with these boolinger bands. It is very imprtatnt. You can do that too on forexpro.com there has to be agreement between the two

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  181. Jayhawk This is the second part of the post from EXN bullboard. I posted the first part earlier. I apologize for being such a dufus on the computer.



    NOV. 1 2010 -- MARCH 31, 2011, BML TRADING AND SETTLEMENT SUMMARY CHARTDate Total buy Total sell V Net buys Net sells V TSX TSX TSX TSXNovember, 2010 2,155,187 (-2,155,187) 747,431 (-747,431)December, 2010 1,800,485 (-1,800,485) 876,585 (-876,585)January, 2011 1,367,418 (-1,367,418) 1,052,352 (-1,052,352)February, 2011 4,762,324 (-4,762,324) 1,834,810 (-1,834,810)March, 2011 19,466,898 (-19,466,898) 4,421,101 (-4,421,101)Totals 29,552,312 (-29,552,312) 8,932,279 (-8,932,279)Date Net buys Net sells Variance of TSX % of net net sells CDS Settled CDS VS CDS Trades settled net settlement November, 2010 672,678 (-682,678) (-64,753) (-8.60%)December, 2010 963,375 (-963,375) 86,790 9.90%January, 2011 970,098 (-838,848) (-213,504) (-20.20%)February, 2011 951,012 (-951,012) (-883,798) (-48.10%)March, 2011 1,369,750 (-1,369,750) (-3,051,351) (-69.00%)Totals 4,926,913 (-4,805,663) (-4,126,616) (-46.10%)* Includes Alpha and Pure ** Variance is the estimated amount of outstanding FTDs during time period
    Independent expert opinion

    On Nov. 26, 2010, the company issued a news release announcing that the review and analysis of its internal trading and settlement data by an independent expert, STP Advisory Services Inc., confirmed that the company's stock was the subject of manipulative market activity, specifically through "failures to deliver" (FTDs) commonly referred to as "naked short selling."

    Regulatory complaint submissions

    Recommendations in the STP report included continued monitoring of trading and settlement activities and to report subsequent suspected abuses to the regulators. The company has submitted two past complaints to regulators and is submitting a third complaint with the trading and settlement data for the month of March which reveals a very large increase in the number of outstanding FTDs.

    The submission complaints includes background information which identifies the time periods the intentional FTDs occurred and the net trading and net settlement totals of individual financial institutions from the same time period.

    Barker will continue to monitor its trading and settlement activities and report any irregularities which may be related to fraudulent activities in Barker's public share market to the proper regulatory authorities.

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  182. Bought back into GDXJ @40.59 (-2.5%) with Gold down just a few bucks down from Fridays close.

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  183. stephen
    the ma for the bands for silver should be 16 days. many use 18 16 is better

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  184. Jayhawk
    me again I posted the first part at 11:20 and there was no subsequent discussion.

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  185. . . . just looking at netdania slow stochastic (don't have forexpro). Your 46.60 holding so far.

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  186. Bollingers with Stoch Slow, very interesting, looks quite good on 5min. I'm looking to sell last position or add on a dip as we sit in the middle of every indicator. So no shower for me..yet :)
    Sure would be nice if EE would do a burner and hit with 30k vol in 3 mins. I'd like a second strike like NYSE open. That was tasty.

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