Saturday, May 7, 2011

Derby Day

After an historic week, I'm very much looking forward to relaxing with a mint julep while watching The Kentucky Derby. Instead of hourly and daily charts, I'm spending the day today with The Daily Racing Form. If I get time later, I promise to give you my Derby pick. Can't promise the same general accuracy of my PM picks but ole Turd has certainly been known to play the ponies from time to time.

For now, here's your reading list for this weekend:

First, my South American buddy, Gonzalo, has penned a great new missive:

Gonzo also links a very interesting interview of the great Bill Black:

Mark Steyn wrote this great piece a couple of weeks ago. He's just great. I wonder if he's a Turdite?

Silver was obviously the big story this week. First, here's a take from Santa:

Next, Jeff Nielson chimes in and he's pissed off:

Trader Dan has a great chart on the gold:silver ratio:
He also has a great gold chart:

Ole John Browne wrote a good piece yesterday:

We're always talking about fundos here and this article sums them up quite well:

I thought that this was kind of interesting:

And, hey, it may not matter anyway. The end is near:

I've received a lot of positive feedback regarding the WebBotForum interview I gave a few weeks ago. If you need some background noise today, you might check it out:

Finally, in the interview, I mention that I'd nearly chosen the pseudonym "Colonel Angus" instead of "Turd Ferguson". Many have inquired from where the Colonel Angus name originated. The link is below. Personally, I find this and the infamous "Cowbell" sketch to be the funniest SNL skits from the last 10 years.

For laughs, here's "Cowbell", too:

OK, that's it. If I can come up with a Derby pick I'll let you know.
Have a great Saturday! TF


    As reported by CMI Gold & Silver

    Year to Date for 2011

    01/03 … 31.11 … M
    01/04 … 29.51 … Tu
    01/05 … 29.21 … W
    01/06 … 29.14 … Th
    01/07 … 28.70 … F

    01/10 … 28.90 … M
    01/11 … 29.53 … Tu
    01/12 … 29.57 … W
    01/13 … 29.30 … Th
    01/14 … 28.33 … F

    01/17 … 28.33 … M
    01/18 … 29.93 … Tu
    01/19 … 28.84 … W
    01/20 … 27.53 … Th
    01/21 … 27.50 … F

    01/24 … 27.35 … M
    01/25 … 26.84 … Tu
    01/26 … 27.19 … W
    01/27 … 27.09 … Th
    01/28 … 27.98 … F

    01/31 … 28.24 … M
    02/01 … 28.57 … Tu
    02/02 … 28.38 … W
    02/03 … 28.80 … Th
    02/04 … 29.14 … F

    02/07 … 29.42 … M
    02/08 … 30.33 … Tu
    02/09 … 30.35 … W
    02/10 … 30.17 … Th
    02/11 … 30.09 … F

    02/14 … 30.60 … M
    02/15 … 30.78 … Tu
    02/16 … 30.70 … W
    02/17 … 31.63 … Th
    02/18 … 32.37 … F

    02/21 … 32.37 … M
    02/22 … 32.93 … Tu
    02/23 … 33.39 … W
    02/24 … 33.26 … Th
    02/25 … 32.99 … F

    02/28 … 33.90 … M
    03/01 … 34.50 … Tu
    03/02 … 34.95 … W
    03/03 … 34.40 … Th
    03/04 … 35.44 … F

    03/07 … 35.95 … M
    03/08 … 35.73 … Tu
    03/09 … 36.11 … W
    03/10 … 35.12 … Th
    03/11 … 35.98 … F

    03/14 … 35.91 … M
    03/15 … 34.19 … Tu
    03/16 … 34.50 … W
    03/17 … 34.31 … Th
    03/18 … 35.13 … F

    03/21 … 36.06 … M
    03/22 … 36.32 … Tu
    03/23 … 37.23 … W
    03/24 … 37.46 … Th
    03/25 … 37.11 … F

    03/28 … 37.14 … M
    03/29 … 37.04 … Tu
    03/30 … 37.57 … W
    03/31 … 37.93 … Th
    04/01 … 37.77 … F

    04/04 … 38.53 … M
    04/05 … 39.22 … Tu
    04/06 … 39.43 … W
    04/07 … 39.59 … Th
    04/08 … 40.66 … F

    04/11 … 40.65 … M
    04/12 … 40.10 … Tu
    04/13 … 40.30 … W
    04/14 … 41.72 … Th
    04/14 … 42.61 … F

    04/18 … 43.02 … M
    04/19 … 43.95 … Tu
    04/20 … 44.56 … W
    04/21 … 46.28 … Th
    04/22 Easter w/e F

    04/25 … 47.22 … M
    04/26 … 45.15 … Tu
    04/27 … 46.07 … W
    04/28 … 47.63 … Th
    04/29 … 48.55 … F

    05/02 … 46.11 … M
    05/03 … 42.68 … Tu
    05/04 … 39.41 … W
    05/05 … 36.20 … Th
    05/06 … 35.29 … F

  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

  3. Thanks for taking up all that space!
    Really amazing post

  4. Thank you Chin Music
    The weekly charts are helpful

    Not all top callers are trolls.

    I was musing about our colleague "Evil" yesterday and concluded that it is possible he is who he purports to be. Not quite sure who that is, but it may be someone deep enough within a primary dealer to have some useful information. It would not be hard. Just get a little netbook computer, only log on at a public internet cafe, and post anonymously. If fearful of the FBI tracking you down, you just switch computers at the pawn shop after every post. This person is rich enough.

    It is the rationale that intrigues me. As an amateur psychologist, I can see someone who is part of the EE feeling conflicted over what they do. golden handcuffs! Not many people would quit a top trading desk job on Wall street during a depression. But still the conscience says "What the EE is doing is criminal--even evil." So this person called "Evil" warns the ones who might possibly listen, warns the only ones who even know they exist and understand what they are up to. Just a few cryptic messages is all it takes. The messages have what we call "verisimilitude" in the academic world--they seem to be coming from real life, not some writers convoluted imagination. Why tell us? The sheeple would never understand it, let alone believe it, but most of us would.

    So I think "Evil" could be for real, as could Wynter_Benton, and perhaps some of the others we have quickly called trolls.

    Keep posting, Evil (and others). I'll be reading and I'll probably hedge myself. I am ready for the markets to correct next week by 8-10%. IRA $$ should be safe. the trolls will prove themselves. Our mystery posters, who may not be trolling, might make this site a very interesting place.

  5. @Markus
    You said in the previous thread that SLV sold 1002 tonnes of silver. Do you have any source for that, or is it just that SLV now has 1002 fewer tonnes? There is a big difference.

    I don't think SLV ever sells any, its just that authorized participants redeem SLV shares for the metal. I assume there are transaction fees for basket creation/redemption -- and there are annual custodial fees -- but other than that Blackrock is basically acting as a secretary just keeping track of everything.

    I guess that is why I have a problem with the SLV is fraud argument. Compared to Blackrock SLV is really small potatoes. Getting caught running a fraud could destroy the company (Enron, anyone?). Even if that risk is low, I just don't see how the reward would be worth it to them. They make a pile of money off their fees. Why would they risk fraud?

    Anyway, what does it matter if SLV has that many fewer tonnes of silver? If they are not a fraud the number of outstanding SLV shares is still in balance with the amount of silver they hold so I don't see anything even interesting in that fact -- other than it shows the fairly obvious point that people don't want to own as much silver when the price is plunging!

    Obviously I don't know what sparked the sell-off, but I don't think most of the causes were nefarious. Silver went parabolic. It was a bubble looking for a pin. I don't mean the whole silver trend is a bubble, just this last couple of months. I suspect that the OBL operation made people think the dollar was going to spike which would drive the price down. Of course this happened when the markets were closed, so they put in orders to sell on open. A whole lot of orders. When the electronic market opened for business, the flood of pent-up sell orders overwhelmed bids and the rout was on, knocking out stop-losses which just threw fuel on it.

    It may well be true that the true 'value price' of silver is up far north of $50. If so, it will get there. In a little more orderly fashion this time -- I hope.

    I dislike Obama intensely, but I'm not so paranoid to think he announced when he did to knock the silver market! He wants to get re-elected. All the spin, the timing, the staged photo-op in the war room, etc, says to me the operation was as much a publicity stunt as anything to kick off his re-election campaign.

  6. You're a machine, Turd. Don't know how you keep cranking out the good stuff at such a pace, but I'm glad you're there (here) for us.

  7. Here's the thing, Doc J: If you accept the premise that Evil may indeed work for the EE deep in the bowels of the machine, then you must also accept the premise that he could possibly be spreading disinformation. Reality will tell the tale, but that may be small comfort to we ants scurrying around to protect ourselves from the destructive lumbering giants.

    I'll tell you this- from my involvement in other forums somewhat similar to this one at various times in the past, I am totally convinced the EE does spread disinformation and fear through puppet posters. Just be wary, either way.

  8. imo, Sinclair's following stmt is just too laughable,

    "Silver is not money."

    The reason is very simple. Other than the long ancient and modern history of silver serving as money in most civilization, an obvious fact is this: if silver is not real and honest money, why jpm/banker mafia have to suppress silver 25 times harder than gold ? Per Harvey, in the latest Comex deliveries, only 2% silver contracts are delivered, 98% contracts are very likely cash settled; while about 50% gold contracts are delivered, 50% cash settled. 50% : 2% = 25:1

    On the silver matter, Sinclair better listen to real experts, like Eric, Turk, and Turd and talk less.

  9. Settling in on Nehru and Dialed In for the Derby. Will watch and wait, and then decide.


    Part 1

    I am writing to share with you my experiences with natural health remedies that may help you get through a period of time where medical attention may be scarce. It is unfortunate to say that most people reading this will not implement these life changes that are essential because of the difficulty in implementing a life change, especially among Americans, is not something people want to do. The psyche of most people is just give me a pill or two that can help me get better or protect me. THERE IS NO MAGIC PILL. Having said all that, I would now like to share my experiences and suggestions without apology.

    I must at this point give you a little history of myself to help you understand how and why I got to where I am. From a very young age I fell in love with sports and played various one’s year round. As you can imagine I continued to play sports well into adulthood. At 38 years of age (1990) I was experiencing increasing stiffness and pain in my knees and feet. I had my suspicions of the affliction but off to the doctor I went to make sure my interpretation was correct. Diagnosis … arthritis … suggested prescribed treatment … drugs, more drugs, more powerful drugs ultimately leading to joint replacement. I declined at that time and set off to find a natural way to handle my affliction.

    I read countless books on nutrition and wound up with a huge library of nutrition books. My head was swimming with information on vitamins and minerals and various other concoctions. From 1990 to 1992 I spent a boat load of money on many different brands of vitamins with little if any relief. By 1992 the pain was so intense that I was brought to tears and was ready to go back to the doctor get the drugs and be done with it. Mercy came my way and I found a new company called USANA. These vitamins worked and the pain greatly diminished. I took those vitamins religiously from 1992 to 2007.

    I realized in 2007 that there was a great possibility in the future vitamins and other health remedies I was employing would not be available. I studied wheatgrass and do believe it is a good product but it would be something, for the most part, that you will need to stock up on. I tried growing it with little success. This does not mean it can’t be done, it can, it’s just that it’s very problematic and needs to be grown in controlled conditions. At least that was my experience. I was trying to find remedies that can support people in the worst conditions so in my book wheatgrass doesn’t fit the bill as a main component.

    I am an avid bible reader and believer and the thought kept rolling around inside me to look into fasting. The bible has much to say about fasting and a statement that has stood out to me in the past is “your health shall spring forth speedily” which kept coming to mind. Again, I bought all the books I could get my hands on. I gained insight into the subject but was unhappy with the quality of the information until I found a book that I am going to recommend which led to another book which I will also recommend.

  11. A Healthier You

    Part 2

    Before I do that let me share with you what has happened to me. In 2005 I went to a joint specialist and had him do ex-rays of my knees to see what condition they were in. Well he came into the room, looked at my ex-rays, turned to me with dollar signs rolling in his eyes. He reported to me that I had no more cartilage in either of my knees. I was walking around bone on bone with no bumper material to be found. He asked how much pain I was in. I wasn’t in any real pain (minor discomfort time to time) because I was still using the Usana vitamins. Anyway, no surgery for me and no money for him.

    Now to 2007 and implementing the fasting. I stopped the vitamins (scary for me) and started working on fasts. This is a process. One must start slowly and work your way up. The books I will suggest do an excellent job of explaining all the proper steps to take. After working my way up to longer and longer fasts I did a twenty day water fast. During that fast I experienced many different changes that my body went through. Toxins were cleaned from deep within my tissues that can NEVER be cleaned from the human body in any other way. These toxins that get trapped within our bodies are at the root of all our health problems. Add to the toxins some triggers (that you will learn about after reading both books) and you have the perfect storm for arthritis, diabetes, Crohn’s disease and many other sicknesses and diseases.

  12. A Healthier You

    Part 3

    I am now going to move along and supply links to the books I mentioned earlier. Before I do that though I want to relay to you this is a process and it is a lifestyle change that you must work your way into. I know that many will reject these methods and that is their choice but let me say to you, why are you doing what you are doing? Why are you on this blog? Why are you investing in PM’s? Why do some of you want to buy a little farm? You are preparing for what is to come. Well and good. I say to you that you need to get well before the SHTF and know how to take care of yourself physically and not only monetarily. The books are very detailed and I am quite comfortable recommending them.

    The first book is FASTING AND EATING FOR HEALTH by Joel Fuhrman, M.D. Pay close attention to the directions given for starting a fast and ending a fast. This is crucial information.

  13. A Healthier You

    Part 4

    The second book is THE CHINA STUDY by T. Colin Campbell, PhD. Excellent follow up reading to the fasting book. They complement one another and both add to your well being. Both books are linked to Amazon for the reason of the comments posted for both books. I suggest taking a few minutes to read a few.

    The bottom line to all this is you don’t need vitamins. You need to work fasting into your life and eventually do a prolonged fast to remove harmful toxins. You need to clean up your diet so as to limit the intake of new toxins. Short fasts (2-3 days) once in a while will help to eliminate new toxins that are taken in after the prolonged cleaning fast.

    I am going to end this here. Let’s call it a first installment. I have more to share concerning colloidal silver, cayenne pepper and few other helpful remedies. These things don’t really help if you are overrun with toxins. For a little more than $20 you can get both books suggested and if you are strong in will you can move forward in health.

  14. Love me some cowbell after a stampede like last week. Thx Turd.

  15. This a short read on the debates in New York regarding a return to the "gold standard"!

  16. Let me first say that I am personally sitting on a lot of silver, and that I want Davis to be right about silver going back up. I've got one of those survivalist mentalities in which I believe that everything is going to go to $hit, and that having physical silver, a rotation of canned food and a few guns will save me. When it comes to fear, I'm not always rational. However, Davis gives us not one fact to support his contentions of higher silver prices.. Face it, the rise in silver is making about as much sense as the rise in house prices in 2005 and 2006. According to Phil's stock world:

    "In just one year, silver is up 120% over the dollar. Last week it was up about 170%."

    "The "value" of your home has dropped 78% when priced in silver in just 3 years. Are we to extrapolate that in 3 more years you will have to accept an pound of silver for your home?"

    While I'll agree that the dollar has fallen, it has not fallen anywhere near enough for silver to command this kind of premium.

    Nobody can deny that the prices of food and fuel are way up, but nobody can deny that the ability for people to pay for these things has gone way down. 51% of Americans are on some kind of Government assistance. 41% of US jobs, today, are low paying jobs. 28% of Americans are afraid of losing their jobs. If it weren't for Government money propping, up the economy, this country would be in the Greater Depression.

    "Right now America is rapidly losing high paying jobs and they are being replaced by low paying jobs. According to a recent report from the National Employment Law Project, higher wage industries accounted for 40 percent of the job losses over the past 12 months but only 14 percent of the job growth. Lower wage industries accounted for just 23 percent of the job losses over the past 12 months and a whopping 49 percent of the job growth."

    Last US count, only 66.8% of males were employed. That is the lowest number since employment stats have been kept.

    What I'm getting at is that regardless of the dollar's international strength or weakness, domestically, prices of almost everything in the US will have to go down or consumers can and will not buy. Remember, consumer spending makes up 70% of the US Main Street economy. Under these conditions, the crazy rise in silver prices make no sense. That said, I'm still not selling any of mine.

    What did we learn when silver prices fell after Comex raised collateral margins five times in a week? We learned that the silver market falls when leverage is removed, and not when you and I buy fewer Silver Eagles. Never lose sight of the fact that the silver and gold futures markets are derivatives markets, and that derivatives markets are subject to margin calls. When investors do not have enough funds to meet those margin calls, we have what is called "deleveraging". We saw what deleveraging could do to a market not too long ago, when oil prices fell from $147 a barrel to $32.

    The housing bubble was created by excessive leverage. Even people without incomes were given the leverage to buy properties, and sometimes to buy multiple properties. It is the same thing with commodities. It is the amount of leverage in the system that determines the numbers of people who can participate in the commodities markets, and to the extent to which they can participate. As if commodities futures markets weren't leveraged enough, now we have ETFs, 2Xs ETFs and even 3Xs ETFs, and one can buy those ETFs on a margin account.

  17. The above post was in response to Ben Davis' BTFD article in BI.

  18. @Pining for the Fjords

    Point taken! thank you. "Truth is proved right by her actions.:" Let's see what happens next week.

    @Geoff, Marcus, anyone,
    Does the SLV fund use fractional reserve accounting of their holdings? 1 to 100 perhaps?

  19. @Chin Music

    Don't get me wrong Chin. What you post is most likely good useful material. I would just request that if you want to post something lengthy give us a short synopsis of it so we can make up our minds to read or not and then post a link to the body of the text.

    Words of Wsidom for today (and yesterday, and the day before...etc.) "Don't sell your physical."

    Enjoy the Derby y'all. Have a great weekend.

  20. @Chin Music
    Well, a bit off topic for the blog but who am I to judge? Anyway, you never did say what your results were. You obviously had a good experience or you wouldn't have posted, but have your knees recovered? Other changes? With long fasting I would expect a bit of weight loss.... I'll admit I'm skeptical, but I am interested.

  21. John ...

    thanks for the suggestion but I do not know how to do that. Fill me in on the procedure and I will consider it for the future. Although when the new website is up I understand there will be sections for this type of information.

  22. @Dr Jerome

    Blackrock says they hold physical silver, period. They issued a comment about the rumors (somewhere) but I saw it posted on zerohedge here:

    The ZH take was they've denied it, so it must be true. I don't quite understand the logic there....

  23. I think maybe the end is a bit further off.

  24. Geoff ...

    I have held this post till the weekend when the markets are closed so as not to interupt the flow of the blog as it relates to PM's and trading.

    I don't know how long you have been around but from time to time we discuss SHTF survival strategies. So not to over explain the issue that's basically why I posted.

    You will lose weight, that goes without saying. I still have my original knees and I go for long walks everyday. I also ride bike to really get the cardio up that walking won't provide. I do not run to save pounding on the bone on bone joints. I wish I would have found this information back in 20's but alas it is what it is. I could run if wanted or needed but I would pay a price (pain) later.

    It's not only fasting that is beneficial, although it is a major player, one must change the diet which these books will help guide you.

  25. Black Swan,

    The rise in silver as you point out with very good reference points ( dollar; home prices,etc ) is a valid point of view. However, if you accept the premise that silver has been actively "held down" for decades, and we may well be in period whereby the "holding downers" are in fact losing control, then the rise is not all that much nor hard to believe.
    So, why the rise now, and how can these powerful forces be defeated?
    - Asia: they have excess fiat and desparately want to get rid of it and secure tangible wealth preservation
    - Internet: the esoteric world of the EE, PM's, etc. is opening up. The info is slowly spreading.
    - Fiat death rattles: We are at the beginning of end game for debt money.

    It really is different this time.

  26. Curious what others think of the silver confiscation that Jeff talks about in bullion bulls ca? This does worry me some, but does he refer to paper? WTF?
    Any input TURD?

  27. Chin Music,
    It's so good to see you back.. as I missed you during this past week!

    I appreciate your post (very much!) I was waiting on it since most of it disappeared before I got the chance to read it on the post last weekend. I hope it does not disappear again! I am on the way out the door and hope to study it in detail tonight. I want to give it the time it deserves and again..I very much appreciate you going to all of this for us readers. ....Chin Music is right.. we discuss ALOT of varied topics under the banner of 'Prepare Accordingly' here on TF's blog. ..TF seems to not only not mind.. but encourages such discussions. It's not always all about the pm's. ...Well.. mostly:D ....but not always. :]

    Dr. Jerome & Pining.. I too am intrigued by 'Evil'. I do believe it could go/be either way with him. Time will tell us soon enough as he's been somewhat descriptive in what he says is coming with the markets next week. The truth will always find you out.

  28. Chin,

    Your info is appreciated. I had an injury similar to what Bo Jackson suffered (if anyone remembers him) years ago and have chronic hip pain. Can you share any more information or do I have to read the books?

  29. ...Wasn't looking at the TV so don't know who it was but just heard a comment on David Asman's 'Forbes on Fox' program of the analysts when asked about silver said it was

    "A barbaric relic for cheapskates".


  30. @wheresthebeef - IMO, if they tried that'd be the final straw. They're already stealing 30% of the fruits of my labor. They stole a little more from me when they decided the silver "bubble" needed popping.

    They can steal my physical right after they steal my guns.

  31. Smart money left silver to tarnish retail buyers
    Retail buyers may have stayed invested in silver long after most hedge funds and other large investors had left, data from U.S. futures regulators suggest.

  32. Ginger

    Thank you for the kind words. I don't believe this one will disappear. I spent time back at an old thread testing the post so it wouldn't disappear as Pt. 2 did last week. What seems to have been the problem last week was Pt. 2 contained the 2 links and although it would post it would disappear soon after. Google seems to like the links broken up so as not to be in the same post.

    Just an FYI to anyone else trying to post 2 links together in a large body of type ... split them ... the 2 links alone worked but add a few paragraphs in with it and it's gone.

  33. Klaverius

    I will answer some questions if you want. I remember Bo and the injury so can relate. Tell me what is a normal everyday diet for you and your age along with your question if you want.

  34. Ginger- Ha! What an obvious tell from that guy: "You are a cheapskate if you don't like the fact that we create value for ourselves at no cost through printing money, and we take that value from you by appropriating from the fruits of your labor, via your newly devalued paycheck, savings, pension, etc". What a tool. Here is a newsflash for these people- it's mine. I created it. It's not yours. Go create your own value, parasites.

    Actually, I think we should embrace the whole barbarian thing- Mongols and Vikings are pretty cool, OMHO.

  35. Adding to jet's comments above re: "silver is not money" ~ throughout history, the common man, who is by far the majority, cannot afford to regularly accumulate gold, "the money of kings (and queens)", thus long ago silver became "the money of gentlemen (and ladies)" ~ simple truth. The US Mint has been producing Silver Eagles since 1986, and the US Constitution (within Article I) clearly states both gold and silver as being legal currency... " coin money..." "...make any thing but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts..." The earth itself has provided, in finite supply, the glorious metal, and we are providing the demand. Our numbers will be increasing dramatically as we break the chains of fiat ponzi fraud debt slavery. In 20 years or so underground silver will be severely depleted, I'm thinking platinum level pricing by then, comparitively to now.

    Word verification: ephed (as in the US dollar), gotta love it,

  36. Chin,

    30. I suppose my normal diet is burgers, fries, pizza...I don't really cook so anything that is quick and easy.

    I was really wondering how effective your method is. Are you completely pain free? Can you sleep through the night? Do you take any pain medication...even an advil once in a while? Do you have flare ups? Is this more of a pain management technique that makes it manageable or is has it reduced the problem to the point you don't have to think about it anymore - that it does not affect your daily activities?

  37. @Geoff
    As proof of their holdings, they posted a link to an audit. I guess most people didn't bother to look or if they did, they didn't notice it was from Feb 2010. Transparency, like wine, works better with some age, I guess.


  38. Are Jim Sinclair and Ted Butler overrated?
    And what of Jeff Nielson?

    Jet wrote:
    IMO, Sinclair's following [statement] is just too laughable:

    "Silver is not money."

    The reason is very simple.

    [ snip, snip ]

    On the silver matter, Sinclair [had] better listen to real experts, like Eric, Turk, and Turd, and talk less.

    May 7, 2011 9:57 AM


    I could not agree more. Furthermore, after reading this statement by Jim Sinclair, I strongly believe that he is overrated. I shan't attach considerable weight to his opinions, as I did before.

    I would like to add that I have also reached a similar conclusion regarding Ted Butler. I used to believe that Ted Butler was the most knowledgeable of the silver experts, but, after reading his opinion on the ETF SLV, I realized that Butler, too, is probably greatly overrated. Ted Butler recently stated that he believed that SLV was non-fraudulent. Can you believe that? H0ly sh1t!

    From now on, I shall regard Jeff Nielson as the pre-eminient silver expert. I believe that no one knows more about silver than Jeff Nielson. On silver, his knowledge is nonpareil.

    -- Paul D. Bain

  39. Ted Butler has also repeatedly expressed his confidence in Gary Gensler, which boggles the mind. I started to take Butler less seriously when he started to say this.

  40. Industrial demand as the major driver of silver price is a complete fallacy, unless the industrial demand tripled in the last 2 years and it didn't.

    That leaves us mostly with a steadily falling dollar and investors and speculators as the main drivers.

    Massive margin hikes support this fact,they were not used to protect against industrial buyers of silver.

    I dont care what the stats say,show me the money, show me where the industrial usage of silver in a recession has tripled. Consumer buying is down not up. unemployment is at its highest levels since the great depression.

    private US investors have set new records buying silver eagles alone, a mere 12-13 million 2011 eagles plus an untold number of past date silver eagles, bars, junk silver .

    Considering eagles are premium silver, the number of other silver investments could easily be tripled or squared.bringing the numbers up to 40-60million ounces annually.

    Factoring in the small size of the silver market in the US , under 1 percent of the population , the potential for growth is not only astounding, it would easily outstrip the ability to produce it .

    If the Fed continues to print dollars,and it will, it is inevitable that the dollar to silver ratio will continue to rise.and as the dollar depreciates following the economic law of the increasing supply of dollars.

    Industrial demand of silver has not driven the inflation rate upwards. the Feds policy has.

    And until that changes, you are going to witness a growing army of small bullion investors who are not trying to make money, but are trying protect themselves from being robbed by a government who is devaluing their money at a record rate.

    This silver bull is fueled by the depreciating dollar.And the more fuel it gets the farther it will run.

    This artificial collapse of silver is temporary, bank on it!

  41. Klaverius

    Here is the good news ... you are 30 ... the bad news is your diet is totally working against you. The books will fully go into all that so I won't regurgitate alot of that here.

    I am pain free unless I do something stupid and try to run a few 100 yard dashed on blacktop. I do sleep through the night and as increadable as it may sound I do not take pain medication or even an advil once in a while for my knees. NEVER !!! No flare up either. It's not pain management and yes it is reduced to the point I don't think about it and it does not affect my daily activities.

    Now ... having answered your questions let me tell you what is going on ... you had an injury (by the way how long ago) and your hip is causing you great discomfort and pain ... your diet is totally working against any and all healing mechanisms ... your hip will continue to degenerate if you choose to keep eating S.A.D. (Standard American Diet). That food (what you drink also) is placing toxins in your system that gets into your tissues ... it reeks havok until it is removed and fasting is the only way ... this all must be done slowly and resolutely.

    I feel for you I really do. I know the pain. Buy the books ... read them again and again ... do what they say ... trust me there is no other remedy ... oh if I were only thirty (59) and had this information handed to me I wouldn't be bone on bone.

    I gain nothing by recommending these books other than satisfaction in hearing one day that you are better, happy and sleeping through the night. The answers are all there for you to do for yourself ... ONLY YOU can help you !!!

    Did I answer you? I hope I did. If not ask more as I will check back.

  42. @BlackSwan: The deleveraging obviously has had a part in the temporary reduction of silver investment, but many would argue that the speed and the methodology used to implement the deleveraging were a bigger factor. If a single margin hike totally the sum of all of the 5 recent hikes were announced 2 weeks ahead of time, many investors would have time to make the appropriate arrangements. With the current trend of sudden unexpected margin hikes, some investors had their positions forceably closed. Also, the psychological effect of numerous small and unexpected margin hikes can't be underestimated.

    All in all, I don't think you can reasonably make such a strong conclusion about the effects of deleveraging as a whole without factoring in the effects of the methods used to accomplish that end.

  43. @Turd:

    "Many have inquired from where the Colonel Angus name originated. The link is below. Personally, I find this and the infamous "Cowbell" sketch to be the funniest SNL skits from the last 10 years."

    Believe it or not, the cowbell video is from over 10 years ago now (2000)! Crazy how time flies :)

  44. @Chin Music

    Standard internet format for a one sentence synopsis goes at the end of the post in the form of a tldr: (Too long didn't read) I didn't read the post yet but here is an example that could be placed at the end of your post.

    i.e. tldr:To be more healthy eat this, drink this, exercise, stay out of the sun.


    You can look at the SLV redemptions at the ishares website. They have an excel spreadsheet with historical data. Here is a link to that file:
    csv file link

    I am not aware of a different mechanism to release the silver other than the creation/redemption, but I have not read the perspectus in full. Either way, I would love to know where that silver is going. Industry swooping in? Conspiracy at the comex? Billionaire cornering physical? Lots of possibilities.

  45. Great job Turd...Now we need comments from Dave Morgan and Jeffery Christian so we can all have a good laugh...Oh yeah..How about comment from Bob Moriarty who lacks integrity and pumps the hell out of stock that he gets free for pumpng

  46. ARCHARCHARCH in the "Run for the Roses" today. Out of the one hole in the slop with a Dosage Index that is second best in the field and the meet's leading jock in the saddle.

  47. Yes that was very helpful. I am going to get your books today. I try to ignore it as much as possible and not do things that aggravate the condition because I figured the inevitable is a replacement. Not very eager to do that at my age because it will have to be done multiple times. If there is a way to avoid that I am interested especially if it is more than a pain management technique.

  48. F said in the last thread: 'I cannot stress this hard and often enough: at the current rate of production, there are 20 years of silver mining left'

    Does anyone really believe that? Are you all so young you don't recall the club of rome back in 1972 predicting we'd run out of just about everything? And this is a rockefeller group even, lol!

    So as silver skyrockets in price, no new mine will EVER be found, no one will even look for one despite the massive profits to be made?

    All the earth has been searched right?

    I suggest you get out more F. Try a visit to colombia, where mining is just starting up again after a 40 year hiatus. Peru is teeming with geoligists. Afghanistan could be the motherlode. that's just to name the most obvious. (By the way, since silver mines are all about to run out of supply, you are shorting them I suppose?)

    If anyone really bases their investing on ideas as ridiculous as 'they aren't making any more silver' you really do deserve to lose your money, just as real estate buyers in 2005 did.

    'they aren't making any more land, buy now or be forever locked out!!' gotta love the real estate shills. Some of them seem to be flogging silver now.

  49. Dont insult Mr Sinclair please. You know not what
    you say. The Chinese, Russian, Indian and many
    other sovereign nations accumulate gold and not
    silver. Therefore he is right that gold is the
    king of currencies. The more gold gets shorted
    by the West (now communists), the more the East
    (now capitalists) can proclaim, wham, bham thankyou m'aam, and buy every ounce in sight. Silver though, will become currency in due course. Probably when the PBOC or some similar entity starts buying. Game then over for the shorts. No longer then able to justisfy the enormity of their fees. Platinum is a 'noble'
    metal, and yet it gets stuffed up car exhausts to make them smell nicer, besides making pretty jewellery. Some emissions specialists are experimenting using gold instead of platinum as an exhaust pipe cleaner - because its cheaper. When the world becomes fully enlightened, will all the pm's come to be seen as real money ?

  50. @Bob

    You maybe right about Moriarty pumping, but because of him i was in great panther in the .50 range and endeavour at $2.00.

    So I would not completely discount his value.

  51. My Derby bet for the day:

    Nehro to show.

  52. Klaverius

    YES ... avoid the replacement at all costs ... you are correct again that it will be done multiple times in your remaining years ... one thing to remember my friend ... this is not easy and your old habits are going to fight you for the longest time ... as you implement this diet change along with the fasting you will begin to feel better and better ... I am not always here and I miss alot of the posts these days as time will not always alow me to go back through ... but if you see me here give a shout out and let me know how you are from time to time ... I'll keep you in prayer

  53. Ginger

    Busy day, but I'll try to put up some wheatgrass info for you later, after the Derby, etc.

    Everybody else, scroll on by...

  54. @Humahauca,

    Julian Simon wrote a good book called The Ultimate Resource that challenged the conventional ideas of scarcity in the 1970s. His ideas certainly proved to be enlightened when the world did not collapse.

    However, I believe that the ongoing (unprecedented) worldwide currency debasement is leading the charge and growth of former hard currencies. And hence do not think a comparison with the 1970s is necessarily valid.

  55. I highly recommend anyone believing in the malthusian and luddite types here promoting silver on the basis of scarcity, not to mention a total failure of human ingenuity and technology, to take a look at Julian Simon's work.

    a fun way to start would be here, a little account of Simon's famous bet against a 'limits to growth' type 'scientist'.;

    if that link doesn't work, just look up the Simon-Ehrlich wager, and forget about who won, just look at the reasoning behind why he won.

  56. After seeing many references to this new commenter "evil", I've determined that I would greatly appreciate the opportunity to correspond with this person on a confidential basis.

    "Evil", if you're out there, please create an anonymous email address and contact me at the email address listed in my profile.

    Thanks. TF

  57. humahuaca,

    I haven't read much of your posts. Are you long PMs?

  58. @robert leroy

    ha! great minds think alike.

    My view is the dollar will continue to devalue, but at a few % each year, while some here expect silver to rise at 50% a year.

    Silver will certainly rise over time, IF we don't enter a maljor recession.

    I would like some of the mega bulls here to go on record as saying they believe silver and the stock market will de-couple, and silver will go up as stocks decline.

    I am clearly on record as saying silver will track stocks, and silver will outperform on the upside, and decline to a greater extent too.

    Can't be much clearer than that.

  59. @Humahuaca

    Funny thing is I was born in the 80s.

    Your thoughts on gold?

  60. Already up $400 betting Churhill today !

    Have a live Oaks/Derby double ticket going into today.

    Long shot special - use the 16 in your exotics.

    Love the 1 horse ArchArchArch , I made a mint betting him in the Arkansas Derby.

    Good Luck Turd

  61. @RLP

    I have been long metals in the past, I have zero right now, not long or short.

    I completely missed the run up in both gold and silver, despite thinking hard about each when prices were much lower.

    I am full of admiration for those that bought at lower prices.

    What kept me from buying was my view that we would have a stock market crash, and I was clearly wromg in that. I underestimated the lengths to which the fed would be willing to go.

    I am now over 90% cash (which in general I hold in canadian funds outside the USA, but right now I am long the USD).

    I expect the euro to crash when greece officially defaults, and the dollar to temporarily rise.

    At that point I will buy some things...maybe metals along with more CAD, AUD and CHF.

    But I will buy gold long before I buy silver.

    I am hoping (praying? lol) that I will get gold at a more reasonable price.

  62. Robert Leroy Parker said...
    @Chin Music
    Standard internet format for a one sentence synopsis goes at the end of the post in the form of a tldr: (Too long didn't read) I didn't read the post yet but here is an example that could be placed at the end of your post.
    i.e. tldr:To be more healthy eat this, drink this, exercise, stay out of the sun.

    Sorry RLP don't really follow all that you are trying to say but thanks for trying to help. June 1st isn't that far off when all this will probably be mute.

    I will say this though "stay out of the sun" is bad advice. I know you were just throwing out examples but it truly is wrong. Decades ago every Dr. shill that could be found were saying to stay out of the sun. Wear SPF 1 billion if you are out in it for long periods. You can't imagine the harm this has done to human health especially woman. Your body makes vitamin D from the sun. This is vital ... any pill form of vitamin D is an extremely poor substitute for photosynthesis of D from the sun hitting the skin.

    Any of you women who don't go in the sun are looking at huge bone loss down the road. People who don't get sunlight in the summer months and live in the North (Michigan) many times are subject to winter depression.

    Do a search on what I am saying about sunlight and you will see it's true. You will also run into the disinformation crowd who will say you will get skin cancer ... BULL PUCKEY

    You women have seen that commercial for Boniva right ... drug companies want you out of the sun ... educate yourselves ... ONLY YOU can take care of yourself ...

    Sorry, I get a little worked up about drug Co. and such ... and RLP none was aimed at you.

  63. humahuaca, your analysis seems to completely disregard future QE activity... recession/depression, the Fed will print and the stock market would rise as we hyperinflate... gold/silver would rise more, and I'm thinking most who follow Turd/FOFOA are betting on the Fed to keep printing as it is the easy kick the can option that the elites will choose

  64. @humuhuaca

    Looks like you'd fit well in Mish's camp (Link. I also carry a very heavy cash position at all times, usually 40-65%. Although up to 80% with this weeks commodity pummeling.

    Canadian and Australian housing bubble busts could hurt their currencies for a prolonged period imo. Same with the NZD. The Franc makes the most sense to me, and even the Norwegian krone. Perhaps CNY is a good place for consideration as well even with their overheating.

    Greece is talking about going off the Euro. Your thoughts on that effect on the Euro? Perhaps a temporary crash followed by renewed strength due to one less of the PIIGS.

    Gold is all about psychology and central bank demand for me at this point. And I expect it to pull back 15-20% at worst, unless their is a worldwide depressionary deflation. I tend to believe this will end with hyperinflation however. At which point gold would do a moonshot.

  65. how does one search for past comments by "evil" anyone know?

  66. Personally, I find nothing laughable about Jim Sinclair and his thoughts and philosophy on PM's and life.
    He's a giant and about as serious as it gets.
    I believe TF would agree on this.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~The U.S. pushes Pakistani intelligence to the wall

    May 7, 2011, 1:14 PM

    The Obama administration is presenting the successful Osama bin Laden hit as an epic American solo operation, unparalleled in military and intelligence annals, while leaning hard on Islamabad to sack certain officers of the powerful military intelligence army ISI including its head Lt. Gen. Ahmad Shuja Pasha, accusing them of keeping the dead al Qaeda leader hidden for eight years...


  67. @Chin Music

    I'll revise my statement to "don't stay in the sun so long that you get burnt."

  68. @waffen

    google tfmetalsreport comments evil said...

  69. @waffen

    Sorry, put the "evil said..." in quotes.

  70. Waffen,

    Google this exactly: "Evil said..."


    I agree that silver will never be money or as money-like as gold, but both seem reasonable hedges against counter party risk the same way that cash on hand is. They just additionally hedge against currency risk (although obviously not when you pay too much for it). So while having 100% of your wealth in PMs seems crazy, having 0% also seems crazy. And by crazy I mean, something with which I moderately disagree in a dispassionate, rational and perfectly cordial way.

    I will try to pick up some palladium and rhodium on the next dip.

  71. Looks like Scott debunked Evil pretty well the other day when he said:

    This "Evil" Person comes out and says "I am risking saying this on an un-secured wifi spot..." -- Well my logic says if he truly had that important of information, he wouldn't acknowledge he was on an unsecured network in relaying his message. What if people actually took notice and head his warning? Then his identity could quickly be discovered. He is full of shit, and is just some fear mongerer taking advantage of people during this time. Don't listen to illogical unspecified "doomsday scenarios."

    If it smells like a rat...

  72. Interview with Jeff Nielsen

    In this episode we interview precious metals analyst Jeff Nielsen of, where we focus on our favourite topic: silver. We cover the lack of objectivity in the main stream media regarding silver’s prices, the alleged manipulation of prices by both JPMorgan and HSBC through the actions witnessed on the COMEX. Due to these actions, we stress the importance of owning physical silver vs owning shares in an ETF, as well as the benefits of investing in a silver miner. As well, we discussed the possibility of hyperinflation in the future, and what silver’s role in that scenario would be like.

  73. @xaritas
    Interesting. Evil isn't new but has been consistent in his posts. Maybe he does work for the man.

  74. Here's a hilarious animation exhorting folks to get even against the banksters and government:

  75. "Economic Slavery". The yokes around our necks are made of debt, not iron.
    Jeff Nielsen

  76. @RLP

    I rode AUD and CAD up for the last 3 years, and have booked terrific profits. Partly that was my way to bet on commodities increasing, so I guess you could say i didn't really miss it, just did not make nearly the % gains the metals did.

    I am acutely aware of the RE bubbles in those 2 countries, and of their exposure to commodity trends, which is why I am now almost completely in USD, I only have about 20% CAD left, all cash.

    Since I do not plan to live in the USA again, holding USD cash is a definite bet on a short term rebound in the dollar.

    Greece is the big story right now, IMO. I do not know how it will play out, the obvious answer is at least short term pain for the euro, which we are already seeing.

    Greece will have to 'default' 'rechedule' whatever you want to call it. That is not in doubt, as the bond prices clearly show investors expect a 50% haircut already.

    Greece will not be able to raise money it needs next year, so my guess is they bite the bullet now. Watch closely the May 15 date when EU finance ministers meet.

    I don't think greece leaves the union yet. Eventually they will, they will never be as fiscally disciplined as the germans. Monetary unions do not work in the long term.

    The huge danger here of course is contagion, bank runs, panics, ireland and Portugal also demanding better terms.

    None of these countries will be able to repay, nor can they meet deficit reduction targets, there is no way out. More austerity simply drives their growth and revenues lower.

    They should have tried austerity 20 years ago when things were booming.

    I really don't know though if the euro outperforms the dollar after the next crash? Far too complicated for my little brain.

    I won't buy euros, but will pick some other undervalued assets that earn income, diversified in several countries, with canada still being my favourite choice, for a reasonably stable government, and a financial system that only makes huge mistakes, not life ending ones, which makes them the envy of the world.

    I know how conservative canadian banks are, I worked for one overseas for over 20 years. They were ridiculed at the time by the 'big' boys on wall street. Now they could buy them out.

    karma baby.

  77. Bank of Canada Governor Gerald Bouey: "we are fighting inflation with high unemployment."

  78. @humahuaca, NO F DIDNT SAY THAT!!

    get your shit straight.

  79. Jim Willie sent me this earlier today.
    I think he wrote it. Pretty funny.

    Jim Willie CB to me
    show details 9:15 AM (4 hours ago)

    Housing market still feels the screws
    Big Banks are buried with blues
    The Economy stuck in toxic ooze
    Job Growth is such a ruse ... ooo aaa ooo aaa
    Ben Bernanke is looking confused
    Central banks have no clues
    USDollar is still abused
    Sovereign debt is such a ruse ... ooo aaa ooo aaa
    Expect more Japanese Yen rescues
    QE3 is what they will choose
    Purchasing power is sure to lose
    Fiat money is such a ruse... ooo aaa ooo aaa
    Bin Laden dead is to confuse
    Propaganda is the only news
    In the end, expect blame in Moslem spews
    The War on Terrorism is such a ruse ... ooo aaa ooo aaa
    Soon to crumble, the Ruling Elite continues
    Hang the Big Bankers without their shoes.

  80. @humahauca

    For undervalued, underowned assets how about Japanese equities.

  81. Klaverius, if I may interrupt. Is there a diagnosis for your hip pain?
    The cause of my hip pain was spondylolisthesis.
    Chiropractic Medicine cured it, and I have the before/after xrays to prove it.
    Yes, Chiropractors are real Doctors

  82. does anyone have an email address for Harvey Organ?

  83. @F

    Perhaps humahauca can join me as a new addition to the list.

    F's List

  84. Here's what I said, and Ill repost because I feel it bears repeating

    @ huci coohie,

    So your retired,and you think your pretty smart ?

    Had you invested in silver last year like most of us dummies you would have made over 100% on your money, thats how smart you are.

  85. waffen said..."how does one search for past comments by "evil" anyone know?"

  86. FWIW Financial Sense and Puplave also convinced me that Great Panther was a great place to be under .75 cents. That being said, I did not indicate that Moriarty had no value, I just stated he lacked integrity and I stand by that.

  87. Thanks Xaritas,

    One thing I notice about "evil" is that he isnt posting very much. If he was an average troll he would have too much enjoyment and would post much more, just my opinion.

  88. moriarty lies through his teeth, he neglects to mention that in March he told everyone to get out at 27 dollar silver, a month later it was 50.

  89. How could he tell people to sell at $27 if silver didn't go below $34 in March? Did he lie or are you?

  90. Vamoose is just incorrect, it was $38, and then again at $48.

  91. I have found 11 Evil said posts so far, did I miss any?

  92. F,

    His what?

    Smart? Like bastardizing the English language?

    Your "your" should be you're, as in *You are*

    I thought maybe you should know so you don't make yourself look like a dipshit:)

  93. what is with this "evil said" story, can someone put up the latest post and get some direction out of it?

  94. Turd

    I found a email address for Harvey you can try...

  95. E,
    Cliff notes are: Evil came here saying he was taking a risk by using an un-secure wi-fi spot to let us know his computer is predicting a 10-20% correction in the Dow this week. Sounds like BS to me, but then again, Faber just said this again so who knows. I put Evil on ignore when I saw his first post and how Cloak and Dagger it was. Anyone popping up out of nowhere for the first time to give us an insider tip in the past have all been trolls.

  96. A couple of things...

    Picked up some Sangria and random Mexican beers. Cinco de Mayo isn't over in my household (and yes I know sangria is Spain, but whatever). So let's get this Derby on!

    Speaking of the Derby, I'm picking Stay Thirsty. As in stay thirsty my friends.

    And does anyone follow FOFOA? I'm late to the party, just started reading his stuff today and my head hurts a bit. Was curious as to Turdite's views to his Hyperinflation debate.

  97. What I have so far.

    "evil said" posting dates:

    March 24, 2011 11:30 AM
    April 7, 2011 10:38 PM
    April 7, 2011 11:45 PM
    April 8, 2011 8:55 AM
    April 8, 2011 10:50 AM
    April 14, 2011 1:34 PM
    May 3, 2011 12:24 PM
    May 5, 2011 4:18 PM
    May 5, 2011 5:37 PM
    May 5, 2011 8:01 PM
    May 5, 2011 11:30 PM

  98. Darth Smoker,

    It essentially is arthritis. The ball of the hip was fractured and when it healed it was abnormally shaped so it doesn't fit properly in the joint. It also increases wear in certain areas.

    I went to college with two guys - one wanted to be a dentist and the other a pharmacist. After two years they dropped out and went to chiropractic school. We would joke about those two being fake doctors. They laugh all the way to the bank now.

  99. Ctrl+f will pull up a search box on my Firefox. Type a keyword in and click the up/down arrows to jump to that word. Works great for tracking specific posters. Of course, it only works on each page not site-wide.

  100. @thecoloredsky

    Yeah I follow FOFOA like I do my baseball team. I'm a huge fan of his blog.

    A lot to digest there. I think the first argument to Rick Ackerman is a bit easier to start the hyperinflation/deflation debate. Its a lot shorter Big Gap in Understanding Weakens Deflationist Argument

    Some other classic FOFOAs I like:

    Flow Addendum

    Focal Point Gold

    Just Another Hyperinflation (3 parts)

    Gold the Ultimate Un-bubble

    Life on the Ant Farm

    Five seems like enough for now. I view the hyperinflation debate as very legitimate. And the argument that the banksters will bail themselves out rather than deflate their debt and collateral makes sense to me.

    Whether we end up with freegold is highly debatable I think. Here is Mish's reply to freegold.

    Gold is Money What about Silver?

  101. Evil didn't really predict anything, he said he was involved in running only computerized simulations that were used to plan. His own words;
    "Remember these are just models"
    These are not real predictions, the results of hypothetical scenarios and potential cause and effect. Even if the ideas stated in his posts were to be proven accurate, that still doesn't really qualify him as an inside source. Perhaps he is a tech in the IT department, wanting only to contribute. I don't think he should be called a troll or dis-informationist. Just a humble turd who wants to contribute like myself.

  102. @ RLP

    Thanks for the recommended articles. I'm working my way through the three parter at the moment.

  103. If EVIL is correct, then what do you folks suggest? Buy SDS?

  104. SilverBleve

    I think you may be over looking some of the content of his posts. He says things like " I don't agree with what my boss is doing" and " screwing the middle class" .... yes your quotes are correct but these type quotes tell a bit of a different story .... like he is right there at ground zero ... I will say even though I put words equated to Evil in quotes I am doing them from memory

  105. Question for the Turd Herd:

    Why is so much emphasis put on when the various exchanges open and close? "Let's see what the Asians do tonight" or "Wait till London opens", etc.

    Can't the traders in Asia or London trade anytime or day or night on the Globalex? If so, what's the significance?


  106. @Fred,

    People sleep and the majority of the volume shifts location.

  107. Pants On Fire to win (A.P. Indy)

    Exacta: Soldat (War Chant) over Pants On Fire

    Trifecta: Soldat and Pants On Fire over Soldat, Pants On Fire, & Dialed In (A.P. Indy) over Soldat, Pants On Fire, Dialed In, and Twice The Appeal. (Valid Appeal & Borel)

  108. This comment has been removed by the author.

  109. Longshot: Stay Thirsty (A.P. Indy)

  110. @ Robert


    That makes sense. I just wondered if there was more to it than that :)

  111. Please, this continuous calling for the dow to drop has got to stop. I have been listening to this rubbish for the past 8 years, next week is always the week that the dow is going to go to the shitter. Rising wedges, broadening tops, it doesn't make a f***in difference if the PPT is around.


    The dow dropped 1000 points in a day last summer, if the ppt could recover that drop, they can do just about anything.

    The market itself will not realize that it is overbought until it clears it's last high. That is a starting point for calling a top, so until that happens, please stop.

    Bear markets are higher highs and lower lows, so until we get a higher high (dow @ 14,200+), please stop with the nonsense.

    Thank you.

    JMHO. Sorry for the anger, I'm just getting so tired of it.

  112. I haven't looked in the past little while, but from August 2010-March 2011 the dow did not have a single 2% or greater down day. Maybe that would be a start before we talk about it's impending collapse.

  113. @F

    you are corect, the quote about silver mines depleting in 20 years was Markus. Sincere apologies.

    You need to chill out a bit man, emotional traders make bad traders.

    If someone disagrees with me I usually think it's interesting to hear their rationale, then I might even change my opinion, as I am always open to new ideas.

    I'm looking forward to reading this FOFOA take on inflation vs deflation, maybe it will help clarify things for me. I just hope it is based on reality and facts, not on some conspiracy theory about TPTB causing the japan earthquake, or other similar nonsense.

    Must be nice to be so absolutely sure you can predict the future. I sure don't have those powers. I almost always hedge my bets.

    I never critized anyone for buying metals at low prices, quite the opposite.

    I only now criticize those who are guilty of fuzzy logic at best, being such true believers that they can't imagine an economic collapse will hurt silver, despite all the historical evidence showing otherwise.

    They also seem unwilling to admit that the rise in silver was caused by Ben's printing, which also boosted stocks, and yet somehow stocks are supposed to collapse when Ben's game ends, yet silver will be unscathed?

    As I say, anything is possible, but I sure wouldn't want a newbie trader to invest without knowing exactly what they are betting on.

    It could be different this time I guess?

    I also never claimed to be smart, but I am fairly experienced.

    Me, I'm just a little guy who traded for a couple decades for a bank, then retired at 45 to enjoy the world, travelling and trading for fun, and to make a bit of income, but mainly to protect my assets, which bernanke has made exceedingly difficult.

    Since I don't work i have lots of time for reading investment blogs, but usually give up on them as the bearish blogs I prefer tend to get over run by lunatic conspiracy theorists or 'the end is near' types.

    I have been hearing 'the end is near' for 35 years. I expect I will hear it for the next 35 too. It gets lame after a while. I mean, the boy who cried wolf didn't do it for 35 years. Imagine how little credibility anyone has after so many years of crying wolf?

  114. Chin Music yes he said things to that affect, but those are sentiments echoed here regularly by many of us. I'm not saying he is not from the mourge, no I think he probably is, but he dosent sound like someone from the pits or the trading desk, he sounds like a computer tech. I'm in IT myself, and I recognize the terminology, the mourge actually has an extremely large IT infrastructure, putting to shame many small countries. They are in fact hiring right now and have been for a long time even in this economy. Someone has to maintain all the computers that make the financial world function as we know it.
    It would be much different if he had come on the board and said "hey we are planning to move the price of such and such to $x on this day and I'm here to give you the heads up"
    But his posts are more general, instead of specifics we get bits and pieces of POTENTIAL scenarios, things that might happen and what the results might be. That kind of talk is not altogether unlike what we have from most of the other posters. My humble opinion is, even if he does work at the deathstar, he may not have access to the information we would like.
    If he were one of Blythes monkeys for example, he would not talk about running computer aided simulations and the results, he would say things like "smackdown planned for such and such time and date, prepare accordingly"
    Instead we have vague references to what are still only possible scenarios, in his own words 'models'. It sounds like he's just telling us what he knows, we certainly can't fault him for not telling us what we want to hear, or what he doesn't know.

  115. Hey Sleeping Beauty,I never claimed I was some kind of genius. And attacking someones grammar is sure sign you have no valid argument. He took a few cheap shots at people on here yesterday , OK? Can we play nice now?

  116. Regarding Evil. It would be handy to know if he does his work for an outfit that exerts control or an outfit that has to worry about events/consequences. In both places scenario modelling would take place but in the latter they would be making more assumptions. Granted maybe assumptions based on being "first to know" but assumptions nonetheless.

  117. I posted ARCHARCHARCH in the Derby a few hours ago but here is a professional handicappers review of the race I received earlier this week:

    With the scratch of Uncle Mo, the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby has become a wide open event. The favorite at post time will be the #8 horse, Dialed In, who has a great trainer (Nick Zito), a top jockey (Julien Laparoux) and bloodlines that tell me he will have some difficulty making the mile and a quarter race distance. He is a handsome colt that will draw a lot of money in the pari-mutual pools and has the potential to fail to finish on the tote board. Dialed In will be a classic “underlay”, a horse that has more money wagered on him than his value warrants. He is simply not worth the risks associated with taking his side.

    With that said, it is imminently clear that there will be a lot of value on a number of other horses in the field. Here are the starters that you should consider:

    Soldat will start out of the #17 post. His connections are excellent (Alan Garcia is one of the best jockeys in the business and Kiaran McLaughlin is an internationally successful trainer). Soldat has the breeding that shows that he can get the mile and a quarter easily. He should go off around 10 to 1 and represents great value at that price. He does have a downside in his running style. Soldat likes to come from behind, he doesn’t carry a dominant edge in talent, so he will need a little luck to maneuver through all of the traffic that 19 green 3 year olds represents. If you wager on this fellow, be prepared to be holding your breath for the first three quarters of the race.

    If you want to impress your friends, bet on the #6 horse, Comma to the Top. With the scratch of Uncle Mo, it looks like Comma to the Top will go right to the lead without taking much pressure. If his jockey (Pat Valenzuela) can back off the fractions and slow the race down, he could steal the Kentucky Derby at 30 to 1, maybe higher. If you bet this guy, you will have the thrill of watching him lead the race into the home stretch at 30 to 1……that alone will be worth the price of admission!!!

    Another sleeper at great value in this race is #4, Stay Thirsty. He has the best pedigree in the race for running distances over a mile. The jockey, Ramon Dominguez, is one of the top ten riders in the world. His trainer (Todd Pletcher) won the Derby with Super Saver last year. His last race was a disappointment, but he has excuses for that poor showing. There is a lot to like about this colt and 20 to 1 odds are the icing on the cake.

  118. @ Chin

    Thanks so much for those posts. I really needed to read something like that.

    Please don't stop posting.

  119. @humahuaca

    Listen, Im sure you know a lot more than I do.
    and most people are willing to hear a dissenting point of view. and If I can learn something from it all the better.

    But you did come off as a bit of a troll yesterday , Seems we got off on the foot.

    But if you're (underlined)going to give an experienced opinion , I'm more than happy to learn from it,and I apologize for my defensiveness

  120. On the same/similar subject...

    I originally became interested in silver, the EE, etc through this relatively unknown site that I accidentally stumbled on.

    The author is a pretty unique guy and actually reminds mea lot of the turd, albeit with a little more vulgarity.

    Anyways, here are his buzzkilling videos on health and other things. Please check them out if you're interested.

  121. I have a question for options players here.

    Well, this was a rough week for a newbie in options, such as myself. I kept buying SLV and GDX call options on the way down, with the same vigor I would with regular ETFs. I now find myself way overleveraged with some substantial losses (about 15% of my trading account). I know that with options, that could turn into a 15% gain in a few weeks. But, I'd be happy to get out after reclaiming my losses. I want to go back to writing covered calls.

    My question for option players: I have SLV and GDX calls ranging from July to December. If the precious metals markets turn which should I start selling first into the strength:

    July OTM calls at a small loss
    Sep-Dec OTM calls at break even
    Sep-Dec ITM calls at a moderate profit.

    I'm not looking to be an options trader with complicated strategies. I want to reduce my position with the least damage - and hopefully a small profit. I think GDX will be pushing 64 sometime between Sept-Dec and don't mind holding them so much, if its for the best.

    Thanks for any insight. Its appreciated.

  122. Your welcome Ricky ... glad you find it usefull

  123. Here is all the Evil posts I could find ...

    Evil said...
    Suck it, Masters!

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha !

    That is all.
    March 24, 2011 11:30 AM

    Evil said...

    The trap is sprung!

    Back me up on this, Blythe, I'm only doing your bidding...
    April 7, 2011 10:38 PM

    Evil said...
    Wait for it....

    Wait for it....

    Boy are you guys in for a surprise....
    April 7, 2011 11:45 PM

    Evil said...
    Executing Plan B

    Didn't you pay attention when Masters told you to watch closely? You should have been expecting this. The train has left the station. It is not coming back unless my boss gets new directives.

    You should see what we have planned for this weekend.

    I don't like doing it any more than you do but we all have our orders.

    If this post gets tracked back to me, I'm cooked.
    April 8, 2011 8:55 AM

    Evil said...

    Are you serious? Do you think I want to end up at the bottom of the Potomac?
    April 8, 2011 10:50 AM

    Evil said...
    This Ain't Disneyland II

    Quick update - assets rolling on Libya - no confirmed go yet.
    April 14, 2011 1:34 PM

    Evil said...
    Down and Out

    Guys, I am going to have to lay low for a while. Something's up over here my spidey sense is tingling and I can't risk it. Sorry!
    May 3, 2011 12:24 PM

    Evil said...
    Important Update

    I'm going to risk coming out of hiding on unsecure wifi for 3 minutes because this needs to be said asap. I already think they know I post here. But I have to risk it.

    There is something going on, above my level, secret meeting with top level idk what's going on but I have a really bad feeling. DJIA/S&P not long for this world next week, latest projections DJIA 10,500 May 13.

    Consider putting your 401K or IRA in stable options or cash.

    Most important get some cash out of the bank. Get six or twelve months worth out and keep it somewhere safe. Do it now
    May 5, 2011 4:18 PM

  124. Evil said...
    More Information

    Now that I can give you more detail I shall do so. Sorry for the earlier post but I wanted to get it up ASAP. Our simulations are predicting the equities markets rolling over as early as tomorrow, leading to an estimated 10,500 on the DJIA by Friday next week. The POMO is also cooling off at this time. I do not have the specific information but I can tell you that something serious is up. In addition to the computer modeling we also had one particular scenario discussed in January about handling the "end" of QE and I can tell you that an earlier commodities market crash followed by a haircut in the equities market in the mid-May timeframe follows that particular scenario. If the scenario plays out look for QE3 to ramp up in mid-July.

    I would urge you to take a hard look at your retirement funds and determine what kind of risk you are willing to sustain. I would also urge you to take six to twelve months of cash out of the bank and keep it safe. When my boss whispers to me to get cash out of the bank before Monday morning that makes me very nervous.

    Just because I have this job doesn't mean I like it, but I can bring you the info that I have because they are screwing me too along with all of you.
    May 5, 2011 5:37 PM

    Evil said...
    Pleas Use Caution

    I would like to reiterate, for any of you who have substantial positions in equities, our last simulation run is showing a 90% confidence interval of DJIA 10,434 next week Friday with std error +/- 501. Please take the time to examine your positions and make any adjustments as you think prudent. If you feel it is prudent please ensure you have some cash out of the bank.
    May 5, 2011 8:01 PM

  125. This is the right time to buy physical regardless of price as long as fundamentals have not changed.

  126. so "Evil" went from a jokester to very serious. sounds very plausible.

    keep in mind he could work for a company like "stratfor" that then sells this information to big players.

    just a thought.

  127. How can anyone say silver is not money. Its written in the Constitution and through out history it was use as barter.
    An excellent definition on money is in Black Law dictionary 6th ed.
    Gold and Silver coin are Lawful money. And can still be use today. Frn's are just notes. provides info on that. Alot of good info there.

  128. Fmr Pakistani Intel Chief: U.S. Goverment Fabricated Bin Laden Death
    Video Here..

  129. @Chin Music
    Sorry, wasn't really trying to jerk your chain over the off-topicness -- just a comment. I have a lot of joint pain (not really severe but I always feel it) in my lower back, knees and ankles (being 6'4" doesn't help -- humans weren't designed to be this big -- but I'm sure losing the weight would help those joints) but the worst is the ball joints at the base of my thumbs, especially when I play the flute.

    I'll get those books and give them a read. I don't know I'm willing to make all the changes they are sure to recommend but as I rarely eat out (Indian buffet lunch once a week is about it and I am *not* giving that up!) and cook for myself and family perhaps I can make use of the regimen. I bet they won't like wine, though, and that could be the deal-breaker!

    Anyway, thanks for posting your experience.

  130. Evil should give us a heads up before silver crashes next time, I think that would have been more valuable information for Skynet to predict than being another Dow-crash caller. If someone was going to stick their neck out to warn people of a Dow crash, I think they could pick a better medium than this blog to get the word out. No offense to the Turd, but anyone who frequents any kind of forum or message board is used to people like Evil showing up and hijacking threads with cryptic doom scenarios.

    TPTB have dumped too much money into the stock market to let it crash before QE2 ends. QE2 ending, now that is a viable reason to start making claims about a Dow crash. Problem, reaction, solution. We'll get more QE when this round ends, the market drops & people freak out and the gov steps in with the magic potion to cure the economy and market again: QE to infinity.

    Funny how silver was being highlighted all over the net, on CNBC and other MSM channels recently...just in time for it to crash and for newcomers to get a bad taste in their mouths if they bought in high. Someone here even mentioned the other day how Fox removed their silver ticker after silver tanked. What better way to turn people off of silver than to lead them to it just to push them over a cliff right after jumping on the train? I also find it rather peculiar that silver was knocked down to just below the coveted $36, the same price that JP Morgan supposedly started losing serious amounts of dough once it was breached during the rise. Hopefully they are covering their shorts now and silver can move back up margin-hike free form here on out. Either way, we only lost one month of gains. A month from now we could be right back up testing $50 again with speculators gone and more strong hands that care not about margin hikes.

    Friends and family that know I'm in to silver ask if I've sold now that it is going down. Trying to explain to them the reasoning is like giving a lecture on quantum physics, nobody wants to hear it and have no idea about the fundamentals or even how margin hikes had anything to do with it. That is exactly why I don't even bother bringing it up anymore. Trying to convince any that were on the fence before this 25% drop is going to be utterly pointless now.

  131. @RLP

    japan: I honestly don't know. I have learned over the years that analysing individual companies is a full time job, and you better be willing to do your own DD as none of the financials can be trusted.

    I am far too lazy now to do the real work needed to make money on stocks in foreign countries.

    So, apart from a few big name US stocks, I prefer to play indices, currencies and commodities.

    I will say my opinion of japan soured when I worked there in the late 80's. I watched that bubble expand and burst close up. Many, many people called that bubble years in advance. JP Morgan being one of the most vocal I recall.

    Yet it still went up relentlessly.

    At the time I read with mild amusement how japan was going to take the US's place as an economic superpower, meanwhile watching my japanese co-workers sleeping at their desks until 9 PM at night just to save face by not leaving before the boss, who was asleep in his office.

    I could go on and on, about how the japanese cannot make a decision without a committee, etc etc. All old news now.

    Ever since then I have been reluctant to touch any japanese company. Their soveriegn debt levels frighten me too. I don't care that they are funded internally.

    I did see somewhere one of the guys I respect recommend japanese stocks as you mentioned, but I really didn't pay attention. It could very well be a great play, I just don't know.

    I did buy EZJ on the earthquake panic though, and after a few hiccups managed to do very well.

    I am out of it now though.

    I'll stick to cash is king until things settle down.

    Great fortunes will be made and lost in the next few months, a year at most. I won't be either way, I just hope to come out intact and ready to take advantage of a huge opportunity, whatever it might be.

  132. This comment has been removed by the author.

  133. Just checking in, hope everyone is enjoying the weekend.

    A very Happy (Pre)Mothers day wish to all our Honorable mothers in the audience.

  134. This "evil" guy is getting a lot of attention. Is he for real, or just a sensation seeker? Haven't got a clue, but I'll throw out a few targets on various commodities myself, at least the ones I have my eye on.

    GOLD: congestion/consolidation for the next few days. Firm support near 1460 on the downside if it drifts down there (and a good entry point), would certainly buy on a breakout over 1520.

    SILVER: bottom likely in place, although a run down to 3200 cannot be ruled out. Will similarly congest/consolidate like gold; a breakout above 4100 is needed for a run at the old highs, but I think it'll be range-bound between where it is now and 4100 for some time.

    AUSTRALIAN$: good support at 105, excellent support and a strong buy at 102. Only a short time before it takes out 109.

    CRUDE (June): bottom is nearly in and it would be crazy to short here. Would have no problem buying here near 98. The weeks ahead should easily take it back to 114.

    These predictions are for amusement only. Do not consider them as financial advice of any kind. Really, are you going to start betting based on what a pig in Turd's world is saying?

  135. @sanchez

    So silver is or was money, so what? Salt used to be money too. Spices even. Cigarettes too. Just about every commodity has been used as money somewhere, sometime.

    all that matters is what's its real value?

    at today's prices I would argue Exxon shares are a better value.

    But both are too high and I suggest owning neither, for now, although I wouldn't sell physical silver now, the transaction costs will kill you.

  136. EA, that is some crazy shit. I'm still undecided as to all of the rumors. I think it would be a suicide news release to claim we got Osama if there is any possible way proof could arise that he died years ago, or if he is still alive and kicking and turns up in front of cameras in the future and isn't a zombie.

    I think we got him, but I seriously doubt the S.E.A.L.'s would have taken out a high priority target/asset like that, especially if he was supposedly unarmed at the time. I think we got him, but he wasn't buried at sea right afterward to respect his beliefs after he supposedly mastermind the death of over 3,000 innocent people on 9/11 who weren't buried according to their beliefs, give me a break.

    I think he may be locked away in an undisclosed location and is being tapped for all information possible, by all means necessary. Say what you want about water-boarding, it gets shit done. A dead Osama is less dangerous to us than a captive Osama.

    My main influence for believing he wasn't killed is that they won't release his death photos when they have released 3 other casualties photos from that night. We've had no problem releasing pictures of past terrorists who have been 2Pac'd, why the sudden change with the most notorious terrorist of all time? Why were certain politicians shown fake death photos at the time and who showed them those photos? I don't buy this story the way it was presented to us one bit.

  137. @Ken
    After your post I poked around a little. I see the original article was posted in Seeking Alpha here:

    And I know it was original because the author (Ken Feldman, who is a managing director at Blackrock) replied in a comment (listed as Authors Reply by Seeking Alpha).

    Anyway, he referenced the latest audit, which was published July 7, 2010 but based on the record date of Feb 26, 2010 4 1/2 months earlier. That audit states that the next audit would occur Dec 31, 2010. Add 4 1/2 months to the latest audit (I assume it happened on the scheduled date, but do not know) and you are to, well, now -- mid-May. I don't know why it seems to take Inspectorate so long after the audit to send the report but given that it apparently does, there isn't anything nefarious about the audit they have listed being the latest one.

    I'm not an apologist for SLV. I did own some shares, then got panicked out because of what I had heard about SLV fraud and bought PSLV. I rode it up, then was getting worried about the premium when Sprott registered to sell some shares and the premium took a dive and scared me out. I then went to CEF because the premium was much lower (9%) and wound up with their premium whacked for their secondary. And SLV just went merrily chugging along. So I went and started looking, and all I saw were innuendos about SLV, everybody knows its a fraud, etc. I even asked here. I found nothing that I could see that indicated fraud.

    At this point I think it is something that people take on faith. I bought into it, and due to bad timing it cost me a lot. So now when I see somebody bad mouthing it I want to know why -- either to get something resembling proof of malfeasance or to set the record straight (as I see it, anyway!). I was an engineer -- 'everybody knows' just doesn't cut it without something to back that up.

  138. As for the "evil" prediction of a stock market crash, anything is possible, but that's not what the charts are telling me. I see nothing but further upside with a target of 1420 on the S&P. After that, I'd stand aside (not that I have any interest in trading the S&P, mind you; I'm just naming a target). And again, it's just a prediction and a personal guess based on my own analysis, nothing more.

  139. @Robert Leroy Parker

    Thanks for that spreadsheet. Looking at the last few redemptions, the NAV was at a premium for all but the last one. Now, they probably use the London Fix vs the closing price like CEF so I don't know how close to accurate the listed NAV was to the actual NAV at the time of redemption, but if the SLV shares were worth less than the underlying silver an authorized participant just traded out shares for the silver and made a profit on the difference.

    As to where it went? It didn't move. Last time I bought a house I didn't move it, I just got the title to where it sat. Same thing with silver. It sits in one of the repositories and its title just gets moved around unless somebody actually wants the physical to do something (industrial, coining) with it. After all, once it leaves a depository it is no longer a good delivery bar and may have to be re-assayed before it is sold so why would someone want to move it if it is just an investment? Yes, if you believe that these places will steal your silver you want to get it out of their clutches, but the authorized participants are part of the system and I don't think have any such fears.

    This is all conjecture on my part, but it seems straightforward enough. If I missed anything please chime in!

  140. @humahuaca
    I know, the 'end is near' refrain does get old. We've gone through crises before, but never like this in our lifetimes with the incredible debts throughout the world with so many developed countries on the brink and with the US just printing money like there is no tomorrow. I'm not a great student of history, but perhaps the 1920's/1930's were like this? if so, it didn't end well...

    Scary times.

  141. hey Turd, all these tools can't take a frikin day off from all the BS.

    Derby Day, y'all should be havin fun. Hope you took my tout of the longshot...HE HIT! I had the exacta, triple and Oaks Derby Double...lots of fiat to convert on Monday bitches.

  142. humahuaca,

    After the rocky start here, I want to say that I am enjoying your posts and the resulting discussions, please stick around.

  143. Geoff

    no offense taken at all ... I didn't think you were jerkin' my chain ... all is good my man.

    by all means read the info ... no one says you have to do it but I guarantee you if you do you will get better ... if the wine reference means you think you have to give it up I'd say no ... wine has very healthy properties ... the grape seed, which is crushed during the process, has a huge amount of antioxidants that gets released into the wine ... dark red the best ... good luck to you

  144. James Dines, of the Dines Letter, now advising to buy after telling to sell at the high. Says we're at our bottom.

    KWN Interview

  145. @Geoff

    I hear ya, and the truth is I am very, very worried about where things are going.

    I am quite sure we will have a financial collapse like never before, as the excesses are like never before.

    But I do not think you need to stock canned food or buy guns and ammo, even though it does sound like fun.

    I'm just trying to figure out how to survive the crash the best way possible, and I don't happen to believe silver is the way. I freely admit I could be wrong, but I haven't heard a convincing argument yet.

    Now, timing is everything and I might once again be trying to be cute and timimg this perfectly, which could be a huge mistake, but I can afford a mistake.

    Where I live costs are low, and I don't have any dependents.

    And now, as someone else has said, time to forget all this and go have a drink. It's a nice warm night and if it gets cool, latin women are very good at solving that problem.

    The end might be near, but I'll sure as hell enjoy it while it lasts.


  146. This was show here and on some other blogs and found it interesting. I think we're only at the "first sell-off" in the awareness phase. Now that the week is over and emotions have calmed down, anyone else want to speculate as to where you think we are on this chart?

  147. @Geoff

    I don't doubt the SLV silver isn't moving unless industry is buying. My question should have been who is redeeming the physical in such large quantities in the face of an exponential blowoff?

    Not sure what you were doing with the NAV spreadsheet but I'm happy a fair amount of people are using it. Kid Dynamite detailed a pretty safe arbitrage trade that one could have utilized the spreadsheet for recently.

    Go long CEF when the discount was large and short SLV/GLD in the proportion that gold and silver compose CEF. Wait for the discount to turn to a premium and then take the trade off with your 5%. The same could be done with any of those CEFs that go discount to NAV.

    You are correct that most of the funds post their NAV based on the london fixing. Here is the spreadsheet for those unfamiliar.

    Live NAVs of Certain Precious Metal Funds

  148. Funny how Posters get into spats and then kiss and make up.
    It's so cute!

  149. Roger,
    With my limited experience I'm going with extreme volatility plays. GDX,GDXJ,SIVR '12 '13 ntm,otm. uxg '12,'13 ntm. slv '12,'13 otm puts. Extreme volatility is the theme for '11 so I utilize time and volatility.I won't play close in, all you need is a few 100-900% plays to make it thru this mess. See Rick Rule @ KWN or Stewart Thomson (well worth the price).My 2frn.

    Chin , have you tried raw? I too have issues, gout. I am a chef so it's difficult but most health issues are diet related. I'm gonna check out your books, Mahalo nui loa

  150. Gadaffi has started bombing oil storage tanks in Libya

  151. Ginger


    I'm going to try to keep this short and sweet. There is no shortage of info on the web about wheatgrass. The following points before I get started:

    1) Everything I have to say about wheatgrass applies equally to barleygrass. I view them as completely interchangeble products.

    2) CAUTIONARY NOTE: The stimulative nature of wheatgrass on the immune system is so profound, that if there is any family history of any autoimmune diseases you must tread carefully. Minimal dosages only, otherwise you risk making an autoimmune disease worse.


    We have never experienced such obvious and beneficial results from any other supplement. The literature is full of research and testimonials for a huge variety of ailments. In our personal experience we swear by it for:

    Stronger immune system. Fewer colds and flu's, faster recovery.

    Resistance from yeast infections. Both common female and male varieties. This is also a function of the immune system.

    Promotes regularity. Nuff said.

    Improves vision. Toss away those cheap readers from the drug store.

    Lowers LDL cholesterol. Won't do a thing about triglycerides though. You need to change your diet for that.

    No more bleeding gums. Toss the water pick.

    No more ingrown toenails.


    I don't think they've figured it out yet. They've tried to isolate certain components like chlorophyll or carotenoids. Nothing in isolation does what wheatgrass does.

  152. I'm only stopped into make this one post. If you don't go follow this link and read it you are doing yourself a great disservice:

    It's long. Very long. You're going to want to read it multiple times. I will be. Then think about why you really believe what you believe and why folks like me don't come by here anymore to post like we used to. I see in that post some of the very same arguments I and others have tried to bring up here for discussion before we were shouted down and eventually just chose to move on.

    Maybe this article will accomplish what many like myself couldn't.


    I bought my first jar of Green Magma on a lark long before the internet came along. Then I followed up with some books.

    Green Barley Essence, by Yoshihide Hagiwara
    The Wheatgrass Book, by Ann Wigmore
    Cereal Grass: Nature's Greatest Health Gift, by Ron Seibold

    Here is a website that seems to also have a wealth of information:

  154. Wow, diet talk. You guys ARE bored. :p

    Haven't found a screaming deal on physical this weekend, so I think I'll see what this week brings. Praying for a sub $30 dip.


    How to take it?

    1) Fresh squeezed juice. Growing it and juicing it yourself is a pain. But you should never pass by a Jamba Juice or other health food store that has a juice bar without knocking back a shot.

    2) Powders that you mix in water or juice. Taste and texture can be a problem.

    3) We've settled on tablets and capsules. Easy. Try the following:

    The Pines products and the Green Magma products seem to enjoy the largest distribution and can be found at most health food stores.

    A note about dosages. A lot of these will say something like 7 tablets, three times a day. Mrs. Eric #1 takes just 2 or 3 tablets per day of the Pines tablets. If she misses a couple of days, regularity and yeast infections become an issue almost immediately.

    Good Luck and Good Health!

  156. Apologies to those who couldn't care less about this stuff. Falls under a fairly broad definition of "Prepare Accordingly". The issues came up about a week and a half ago on the blog, and Ginger, Chin Music, myself, and other interested parties agreed to put it all off until a slow time on a weekend thread. Job Done.

  157. CFTC to Probe Speculator Role in Commodity Prices

    Ha ha ha ha

  158. @Chin Music

    I would highly recommend looking up Doctor Norman Walker. he has many good books on the subject with a focus on vegetable juicing. Also a few good things to check out, Dr Gerson for reversing Cancer and other degenerative diseases. Food matters is a great video as well.

    I too was told that I would have to live the rest of my life on drugs years ago and have since told those dolts to pound sand and am now healthier than many half my age

  159. F,

    He was defending himself from attacks, which seems to be the norm around here for people that present a view that doesn't fit with the herd.

    As long as you don't jump on them, I'll quit teasing you:) We'll all get along and might learn something from each other, or at least have open and respectful conversation.

    I would never insult someone about anything if they didn't have it coming.

  160. Thanks as always Yukon.

    Will sit down and try to get through this a couple of times.

    Still don't know why people shrug off your posts so often...

  161. Highly recommended website on health.

  162. Dr Norman Walker

    Dr Max Gerson

  163. @SleepingVillage

    Im all for opposeing views,It was some other things that I dont want to rehash.

    So if your (lol) Kool, Im Kool.

    Back to the business of investing.:)

    Yukon , I enjoy your posts and I frequent your blog. keep posting !

  164. Also had somebody recently recommend norman walker to me.

    Just had my first raw smoothie. Would highly recommend. It tastes... natural! Like fruit juice but without sugar. Delicious.

    I tried to experiment with

    1 cup of water
    1 ripe kiwi
    1/2 banana
    6 frozen strawberries
    1 big handful of cilantro
    some broccoli sprouts

    Great way to get your daily fruits and vegetables.

  165. Ginger

    You also asked about ADHD and Bipolar disorder I believe. No direct experience, but if I were you I'd read up on omega 3 fatty acids in general, and DHA in particular. If you decide to try something, I like this product:

    Or, just stock up on that canned salmon I told you about so long ago!!

  166. Nicotine proven to help ADHD
    "The Health Benefits of Tobacco"
    William Campbell Douglas II, MD

  167. kumanari

    yes ... raw is best ... I eat salads with beans & you name the vegetable ... rice ... nuts ... I could go on & on but it's all explained in the recommended books ... you only limited by your imagination ... since you are a chef yours is most likely unlimited ... I am sure between the 2 books gout is covered.


    thank you for the suggestion. They are probably very interesting. Will review.

  168. Since this is OFF topic day, this is much more important. All our lives are about to change DRASTICALLY. Checkpoints COMING EVERYWHERE!

  169. thanks for the Link Yukon.

    I fully agree with FOFOA's argument for hyperinflation.

    I believe the attraction by silver bugs to silver is the fact that one can buy 40oz of Gold or 1700 oz of silver.

    spending 15K for 10 coins is hard to swallow when that 15K is 1/4 of your savings.

    I imagine most silverbugs are of this variety, with small capital.

    I assume in hyperinflation silver will inflate and will be tradeable and exchangable for currency. It will be a wealth perserver because it is looked upon as money during hyperinflation because there is not enough gold to to go around.

    Now once hyperinflation is over and a new currency is in place backed by gold, then silver will be revalued and we will still have our money.

    In this sense, compared to paper, silver is a great play.

    Gold wins in the end for currency, but if your 40oz are revalued at 5K your 1700oz only need to be valued $117.. So silver will surely pace to that level of gold will it not?

  170. @ humahuaca

    You said:
    I hear ya, and the truth is I am very, very worried about where things are going.

    I am quite sure we will have a financial collapse like never before, as the excesses are like never before.

    And then you mentioned costs are "low" where you live. If you were a trader, didn't you buy low to sell high?

    Look, you appear to have some latin action at your side, no dependents... whatever. We all ride the good times because tomorrow might suck. But really? You are asking us what to do after all those years of banking? If I was an asshole I'd say go pick up coconuts off the beach for food storage and cartons of condoms before the stampede. Maybe ring in a few of the locals and promise them some sort of future earnings.

    Point is, who are you? And why the hell are you on this blog?

  171. Established a position in which I deployed about 20% of my ammo on Wed and Thu at an average of 34,7$. Mind you that I am going for long term, so I plan to hold the position I'm currently establishing for at least months.

    Would love to hear what you're currently doing with your options/futures/CFD/FX etc.

  172. Yukon,

    one other thing.. In Hyperinflation, there will be a huge rush out of paper. this money will flow into silver, gold, and hard assests.

    You then must take that silver and buy producing land, property or whatever.

  173. I have just decided that the WRONG gender is in charge of preparing the family meals in most homes!! :D ...It is truly REMARKABLE to me that so many of the guys on this blog are such a wealth of knowledge on food/diet/health issues!! :O ..Astounding.

    Ok....Honestly, I can't thank you guys enough. I'm writing down every link and re-reading everyone's posts on this. I am about the ONLY healthy one in my little family of four. ..Well, I should preface saying that with saying that none of our health issues are life threatening (yet)...and so I'm not complaining and I am grateful for the relative good health we all have; however, having said that.. there are just some strange things in this household... ADD, Depression (and/or) Bi-Polar..not sure yet. ..And the strangest of all afflicts my husband with a wide range of ailments that we can't seem to get a handle on. Truly distressing and difficult to figure out. I jokingly tell them that if I don't somehow manage to stay healthy...the rest of them are sunk because I'm chasing so many ghosts in trying to figure this all out for them and find answers.

    Ok.. enough personal stuff. Didn't mean to go there. The stress is lessened strangely in just reading that there may be answers in an approach that most don't think of. DIET.

    Thank You! ;)

  174. @ waffen

    When does one take silver/gold and buy property during hyperinflation?

    Also if you or anyone can answer. I've seen the zimbabwe videos of people flashing million dollar notes. If FOFOA says wages won't keep up with hyperinflation, then how are these people getting those high denominations?

    I'm just starting to read the FOFOA articles. Late blumer, I know :)

  175. I've been crazy busy and can't catch up on my reading... What is the consensus for Monday? Do we all think the Margin hikes are already priced in? or will we see another drop on Monday? Looking for a physical buy opportunity. almost bought some yesterday morning, but didn't.

  176. @ Michael
    I think that we may have seen decrease in silver if not for the fact that libya is current on fire. At least the oil wells are.

  177. We still might but if oil goes up, so will silver

  178. Yukon,

    Good recommended reading (FOFOA Costata Article).

    Hope you don't abandon this blog, your viewpoints are well thought out and appreciated by many here.

  179. Colonel Angus? Wasn't McGyver's name ANGUS?? Yes, and our Turd is as sharp as Mac was!

    BlackSwan...the Dines interview on KWN is very interesting. He's predicting that the devaluation of the currency will leave many who think they are wealthy, poor. 50%, 90% devaluation, who knows? Figures gold will reach between $3-5000 an ounce.

    It's a very interesting interview...

  180. Michael--listen to Bill Haynes on the KWN Metals Wrap....he give details on next week. Like Turd, says to see what the markets are doing Sunday...but more, too.

  181. thecoloredsky,

    when blood is in the streets?

    as for people getting high denominations, its those clossest to the printing press that gets the money first. 1 quadrillion may buy a car 1 day, but a week later it will only buy a loaf of bread. for example.

    unfortunately TPTB will get it first, then government employees or sucking off government will get the money second

    most of us will get it last when its worth much less.. IE, FOFOA's bear will eat us.

  182. Yukon, read it, twice... sorry, a load of arrogant shit, the author repetitively imposing HIS will on the reader that "you're holding the wrong metal" ~ the 'there is no shortage' and especially the 'cornering' angle... weak, and he then assumes we're just accumulating silver to eventually bail 100% into gold when the GSR suits us... to top it off, saying, "if the SLA is successful gold will be worthless" for crying out loud. I think alot of us feel silver is undervalued now, and we'll convert a certain %age into gold later, but for barter or periodically converting physical into whatever new PM backed currency exists at some future point, silver will serve its purpose well. I don't see the US Constitution being shredded in a post dollar collapse future, I see it adhered to strongly, and again, from my earlier post today, within Article I, both silver and gold coin are legal tender.

  183. Hey Yukon, that was a very interesting article.

    I think I need to read it a few more times to see see exactly how I feel about it, but thanks for posting it.

  184. Yukon, thinking more about it, the article is written in such a long drawn out way that allows his constant placing (conditioning) of negativity regarding silver... this guy is just as bad as the MSM "silver is a bubble" parade the Friday just prior to the big Sunday night attack a week ago. I will say, his Blythe trading scenario is intriguing, but it's just noise within the bull run.

  185. Ginger, look up DR. BURTON BERKSON, M.D, PhD at the Integrative Medical Center, Las Cruces, NM

    By some dumb luck I moved to a place where this wonderful genius is in practice and I take ALA intravenous treatments. I've seen MANY miracles in the treatment of cancer, auto-immune etc through ALA and the diet he favors, which is basically an anti-inflammatory diet. I can also tell you that ALA sure helps the brain....

    I have Stag3 3 kidney disease and through the use of ALA, my creatine levels are now high normal. I also am on a low protein diet and use a non-urea forming amino acid supplement, the same one that the late researched at Johns Hopkins, we wait for dialysis, but in Europe, China etc, low protein is being used. Funny, every nurse I know who was trained through the 80's know that this was always the protocol, but with the advent of the dialysis industry, a lot of kidney doctors never suggest low protein, esp. the newer ones. So, you do have to HELP YOURSELF....more and more doctors are really not up to speed on anything other than pill pushing.

  186. Another video discussing how there is no silver shortage.

    seems to me that we really need to reconsider this whole comex jp morgan crash noise.

  187. YC,

    Great article it once, the jist is clear. I like opposing thoughts ...

    Keep posting ... information like this needs to be distributed ..

    Thanks ..


  188. Wow, the Silver Open Forum is quite a read. Excellent thoughts, attention to detail, research and organization. Thanks for sharing, Yukon. Highly recommended reading for all, and I would welcome Turd's thoughts/comments on the matter.

    My take is that this is not necessarily at odds with TF's view of the EE -- in the sense that bullion banks control the silver market and have done so for decades. The idea that BM and WB are one and the same makes quite a bit of sense...

    The scenario outlined is quite plausible. I have no issue (as yet) with the facts and logic presented. My objections/misgivings about the conclusions of the article are:
    a) it is very strongly rooted in and dependent on the infinite and unchanging superiority of gold over every other asset known to man as a store of wealth. As a corollary, worships as deities A and FOA - possibly warranted, but generally a plan with negative side effects, regardless of virtue or original intent.
    b) omits any mention of the KNOWN ongoing monetization of silver by China, several US states
    c) dismisses as laughable the notion that there would ever be a segment of silver investors who would buy and hold silver regardless of price (like there is for gold). Empirical evidence suggests otherwise.
    d) completely omits the aspect of silver being a finite resource ultimately being consumed. Even with higher prices (recycling incentive) and new technologies, a certain percentage of the silver used in industry is irretrievably lost, thus it is and always will be a depleting resource. No abiotic silver out there, as far as I know... ;-)
    e) ignores the very much active investment/speculative potential of the Chinese retail market, which for the first time is becoming a capable market of buyers as wealth has concentrated to a sufficient degree. This is just an illustration and ignore the captions, but the CCTV clip itself is instructive:

    I am likely to allocate more FRNs to physical gold purchases. Reading FOFOA has that effect on me, it seems. As soon as I MAKE some trading paper silver and after I finally round out my stash with Perth Mint silver products... :-)

  189. BTW, great new lead article on ZH:
    The Inflationary Diabolus Ex Machina

    Money supply pump (unprecedented in size and scope) does more than just generate inflation -- the pricing/value indicators of assets, sectors, industries, etc. becomes unhinged. I will likely re-read FOFOA Silver piece again, but only AFTER I reread this one.
    captcha: SURGE. Silly as I am, I choose to take this as an omen of things to come for silver price starting later tonight...

  190. I know this is not a diet forum, however there were some valid points brought up. If the SHTF, or even a financial collapse please explain where you will buy your pharmaceuticals? Either way I do not want to sustain my life on drugs. I want to live my life without them. If I have to significantly change my diet then I can deal with that. I highly recommend anyone with a disease to look closely at the root cause and you will most likely find it is the result of your lifestyle. I had serious cholesterol issues with 441 triglycerides

    My typical day is as follows:
    Juice of 1 Kilo of carrots, 1 cucumber and 1 beetroot. - organic if possible.

    Green smoothie - use a blender like the vitamix
    green leafy vegetable Kale
    as much fruit as you can take
    add any of the extras you want wheetgrass, maca, cacao, acia anything that you like...

    Sometimes I will take a coffee grinder full of flax seeds ground up with sunflower seeds maybe some cacao, mashed together with a few bananas mixed in dried fruit with almonds and raw honey. Sometimes with coconut oil. makes a cereal type dish.

    For snacks whatever fruit I can find. oranges, tropical fruits, fresh young coconut. etc. If I am lucky mangosteen or Pitaya etc. It really does not matter and I could care less about the cost for fruits. I have paid $45 for one durian before.

    Anyway for dinner something raw is preferred. I will eat some cooked foods but prefer raw as I know anything else will put me in an early grave. I do try to get in the sun all that I can, and try to use all organic products.

    For me it is worth it. For others you might think it is extreme. However, for those of us with life threatening situations you need to take things to the extreme, and not be such a pussy and think just taking some drug will fix it. Just like buying Physical metals. You need to take things into your own hands, and make significant changes.

    Sorry for the rant, the rest of my posts from here on out will be specific to PMs.

  191. "mxyzptlk said...
    Ted Butler has also repeatedly expressed his confidence in Gary Gensler, which boggles the mind. I started to take Butler less seriously when he started to say this."

    Same here. Some people will do anything to keep their illusions intact.

    Truly, the only people who really get the markets are Adrian Douglas and James Dines, and maybe Eric Sprott. Extraordinary interview (as always) btw with James Dines on KWN this week.

  192. @humahuaca

    Interesting posts! I've been considering hedging against dollar devaluation by moving some of my savings into krone as well, since the norwegians seem to have a stable currency and economy. I've no experience though, with FX transactions. If I wanted to do that, would I just need to open a Forex account somewhere, and buy krone?


  193. @humahuaca

    Btw, humahuaca looks nice, reminds me a bit of AZ.

  194. Another lengthy post got et!!!
    Thanks for the link. It added to my education.
    A little remorse at not adding at GSR 30.
    WHO KNEW??? OK, some of you did!!
    I hope you continue to add your thoughts here.

    Eric #1,
    Thanks for the cheer (Go Vincent Go!!).
    Filled the Crown Royal bag half way up. Some nice gets...ASE's at 3.00 > spot, and a bunch of Engelhard bars at 1.50 >. Raised his "Tupperware Odds" from 1.00 to 1.50 cause he was taking a bath.
    Sold a little on the way up to 49, and bought a few of the same ones back. A nice trip all around.
    @ Strong Side Jedi,
    I enjoy your posts.
    I get the impression I know you from elsewhere.
    Thanks for your contributions.

    Tough climb back for some of the new peeps. Stay resolute, and remember that there are other preps to make in addition to stacking shiny.
    Pablo... Keep the faith, and hug Mrs. Pablo muchly.
    Peace everybody.

  195. Yukon,

    Thanks for posting. I think many of us who post less and lurk more DO appreciate the viewpoint you bring. If the only defense I can muster to your arguments is name-calling, my investment thesis is a train wreck waiting to happen.