Tuesday, May 17, 2011


This will be short as gold is collapsing through all the points I wanted to discuss.
It is clear that gold will need to hold and double bottom around 1470. Silver needs to hold 33.
We're about to find out if that's going to happen. More later.

p.s. Keep in mind that (other than gold retesting 1470 rather than breaking higher) nothing happening today is inconsistent with what was discussed here:
The object of the note above was silver and silver is still above 33 and basing. Until and unless 33 fails and silver heads to 30, the timeframes in the note are still valid.
We shall see.

And this is for "shill".
Lastly, I try to keep up on current events so as not to look foolish by making hopelessly inaccurate posts. I need a little help. Everyone now says that QE is ending in June, as if its a fait accompli. Did I miss the formal announcement? Was there a press release sometime in the past two weeks that stated this? Seriously, I don't remember anything of the sort.
I remember that weird Bernanke "press conference" which caused the metals to skyrocket in the hours after but I don't recall anything from the Fed since that officially declared QE over.
Can someone help with this? 


  1. Thanks for the super fast update Turd! Great work :)

  2. Hopefully my puts in GLD and SLV will pay off today.

  3. I am thinking the POSX$ in the 79 range here Turd?

  4. a bit of a bounce happening now--as usual at this time after a takedown.

    Also have to look at general market which is meeting headwinds and it looks like the "plan" is coming together--say QE ends-economy slows, congress basically will beg for more QE.

  5. This is probably my fault.....I bought a bunch of physical yesterday, sorry folks.


  6. 2008 all over again this year

  7. look at commodities, look at Dell, and Financials......Everyone is heading for the exit.

    Liquidation event.

  8. That hold by Silver on $33 is but by a thread. Some brave souls still keeping it up there though.

  9. Today is a full moon day, and it is a full moon in the Scorpio sign. Scorpio moon has a tendency for a V shape day. Not sure whether it will be played out today, but can sit back and watch.

    Gold trend is also forecasting that we are entering into a stronger cycle zone for PMs, from full moon (17/5 +/- 72 hrs) to next new moon (1/6 +/- 72 hrs)

  10. Turd - what do you make of this Gann Global Playing the Downside in Gold and Silver Stocks


  11. April industrial output weaker than expected


    /// cover folks were going down and big ///

  12. The good news is that we're in the 3rd leg down of the correction. If this is a correction similar to the beginning of this year, then silver should find a bottom within the next few sessions.

    The wildcard is if we get another inflationary death spiral scare, which warrants caution.

  13. Playing in a rigged casino. The only way to win... is not to play. Hold physical. Time will take care of the rest.

  14. Sounds like a good time to keep your powder dry, and get ready to buy a new orchestrated dip.
    Turd, isn't the only real pressure point for the cartel the July expiration on the COMEX? This paper pyramid CRIMEX scheme looks to be unhinged from the physical, and aside from the big money entering silver on the long side, running up contracts to the higher end, I don't see anything before July expiration doing the trick.

  15. Sorry I meant to say deflationary death spiral scare.

  16. Calum: exactly. Go back up and click the link in the ps section.

  17. Hey Flaunt - What do you mean by an inflationary death spiral scare? Like the 5.x% just reported in Europe?

  18. i have a theory that the longer the price stays lower the closer we are to the end...of the keynesian experiment.


  19. Many here posted so much of Gold/Silver buying by Indians.

    I just put in numbers, if even .5% of 1B Indians buy 160 grams of gold each year which would cost at todays $7797 and total would come to 800 tons of Gold.

    Now .5% of Indian have much more wealth than $8000 to spend every year. I think this year Indians may import record amount of tonnage.

    So, my point is it is number game. I think 1% of Americans and Europeans have 100 fold more buying power than poor Indians.

  20. @flaunt: yeah I think this train is to our final corrective destination.

  21. I created a song for all of us silver bugs out there. Hopefully to cheer us up. The fight never stops. From my blog in Shanghai it's called the Silver Liberation Army Anthem. I hope it goes viral. Who knows...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YgoK9wcDqg

  22. The short bias wins again. I am positioned for a fall of the broader markets. For pm's, I will trade DZZ and ZSL on every bounce. One of these days I wll buy some EXK but not yet.

    Was that raid something or what?

  23. I have feeling that today we may see big time short covering i.e. FUBM..

    At least I Hope !!!

  24. Using Kitco's chart, today and yesterday look almost completely reversed. I'm no chart reader, but I like symmetry. Just for the art of it, can EE allow us to close 1.50 up from here? You know, just show us who's boss?

  25. Jimmy, I meant to say deflationary. If it happens I don't expect it to last too long since Ben will step in with his printing press once it becomes clear that the economy needs it. No telling what could happen in the meantime, though.

  26. You are right about QE - they will try to pretend it won't continue, but it will. They may come up with a new name. Note this news when I dropped by google finance:


  27. Crushed.

    Since when do market behave rationally - QE2 is "scheduled" to end. That's enough to make silly markets shit their pants, regardless of what any thinking person knows will happen.

  28. I could not resist just added 2 gold eagles to the stack....just keep stacking real money folks.

  29. JoeKa said "yeah I think this train is to our final corrective destination"

    I really like that phrase, "final corrective destination." It's either yippee, metals go up, or we are all finally being slaughtered, err corrected, at EE camps.

  30. If this is another raid by the EE then why isn't it falling off a cliff right now?
    It (Gold and Silver) is down 2% and 3% yes but thats small potatoes compared to prior EE Raid damage and in itself a bit encouraging no?

    Guess it all hangs on the action in the broader Equity markets today...
    The 9:30 open isn't looking that bad... yet...

    Good Morning Everyone =d

  31. never mind that story is old...

  32. First the techs shit the bed then everyother sector follows. The shill house of cards starts crumbling and the sheep investors will finally rush to something that will hold value better than their fiat toilet paper. Can you say PM? It's only a matter of time. Patience my grasshopper.

  33. G and Joeka,

    Haven't we been saying this that last two weeks? Final capitulation. A bottom is finally here. Well it isn't. No one knows where this is going. But trying to call the bottom is costing folks a lot of money. The historical lesson from 2008 is that pm's can go lower and lower.

    YOu can either accumulate miners at lower prices like Atlee sugggests (at the risk of catching the knife on the way down) or you can wait for a clear indication on the charts that yes, support is confirmed, buy here). I'm with later strategy. I will wait for the selling to cease and forgo some of the immediate profits. While I wait, I will try to profit on any further weakness shorting miners and the metals.

    Either way, miners like EXK will be cheaper than shit when this toilet flush refills the bowl.

  34. FED presser was very important as Bernanke reminded that QE2 is both open-ended, but, also is currently scheduled to end at the end of June. However, with today's latest confirmation that massive housing deflation is back on again, imo the FED has a decision to make. I'm anticipating that QE3 or--QE2 extended--is going to focus on housing or MBS.


  35. GPL: $2.67
    EXK: $8.08

    EYE popping to say the least.

  36. Remain calm. It is a good day to buy physical, and or land.


  37. SLW in the 32's. Sad but true. I can't remember all the sell points I had with SLW: 43, 41, 38, 35. But my liquidation of my former largest holding, while extremely painful, has proven the right thing to do. Rarely do I regret selling. Selling has left me with a keg of dry powder. You cannot fall in love with the precious metal.

  38. Turd,

    On the end date of QE2: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703506904575592471354774194.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hps_LEFTTopStories

    Jim Rickards argues that the Fed will be able to do stealth QE with the income from their balance sheet.

  39. In my country the only silver dealer here is buying back physical at ~40$. And they don't sell b/c they don't have anything, yea sure "silver is cheap and plentifull". Even ruanda elephants are gone now. drives me angry all this bullshit talk about silver price dropin.

  40. Did some trading last night and again early this morning, been having fun playing long and short.

    Bought a couple of little longs on the raid. Mid/low 33s looked like a cheap day trade.

    I think we'll see 34+ later today, on short covers if nothing else. That's my target, short term, probably not much solace for long holders. What may be solace is that I generally close my trades earlier than later, so consider my 34 as bullish for 35/etc.

    COT is based on today's COMEX close, right?

  41. SSK said: I will wait for the selling to cease and forgo some of the immediate profits.

    Sounds like a pretty decent strategy to me.

    Oh for the record I'm not calling a bottom per se but rather the conclusion of the wave down to whatever price we settle on.

  42. man, am I a glutton for punishment, or what? Fired another bullet at AGQ@154, averaged down to 161. That's half my bullets, not gonna be holding this long... hopefully. ;)

  43. Okay, I smell capitulation, I just bought back in, this is a great place to buy it all back... when QE3 begins, this morning's prices will look cheap in the rear view mirror... LOL!!! (famous last words, gulp)...

  44. As far as I am aware Fed's $600 billion QE2 program is for purchasing bonds through second quarter of this year. After that to continue purchasing bonds in the following quarter they'll have to do another QE, name it something else, or create a crisis that allows them to print money and back door some of it to purchase bonds.

  45. Good morning all,

    Gregor, do you have a link handy to the latest housing news?

    The knife I thought someone caught in our neighborhood (the hugely overpriced house we were admiring last year) just reappeared as a new listing at $50k off. Bet it didn't appraise...

    Just watching from the sidelines...

  46. King dollar. Buy at the bottom, don't fight the trend. You've got your PM stash, either make more $ on the way down or sit on the sidelines.

  47. Dollar dominance to end by 2025: World Bank


  48. Adding to gregor's FED comment, judging by the noise surrounding the debt limit hike and how they've alluded to not raising the limit would hamper their ability to do more QE, sure souds like they're planning on more...

  49. @Pailin said...
    COT is based on today's COMEX close, right?

    That's what I have feeling... Otherwise we have to assume that EE don't care about COT anymore and people knowing what happened during the week.

  50. Some of my miners are moving into the green for the day. A little bounce off of the opening drop.

  51. 33.50 is still looking to hold despite that earlier boom boom pow. Not bad at all.

  52. I will be receiving my box of panda tmr. UPS just called me. Have to pay the hefty GST tax here, but I think it is worth it.

    If silver baby can do a wonder and dip to the magical 30s by EE or weak longs, I will seriously consider to take another 10 boxes off the market.

  53. So much for fighting the Evil Empire. What a bunch of pussies. I just bought some gold and silver.

    2 million $ worth of XAG and XAU. And you should too if you believe in what you say.

  54. Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange will open in less than 24 hours. The only product they have is 32 oz gold futures. Any thougts of which player could play in EE's team ?

    The broking members are:
    BOCI Securities Ltd,
    Celestial Commodities Ltd,
    CES Capital International Co. Ltd,
    Chief Commodities Ltd,
    ICBC International Futures Ltd,
    Interactive Brokers LLC,
    KGI Futures (Hong Kong) Ltd,
    MF Global Hong Kong Ltd,
    Morgan Stanley Hong Kong Securities Ltd,
    OSK Futures Hong Kong Ltd,
    Phillip Commodities (HK) Ltd,
    Tanrich Futures Ltd,
    TG Securities Ltd.
    GF Futures (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd
    Nanhua Futures (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd

    The three clearing members are:
    Interactive Brokers (UK) Ltd,
    MF Global UK Ltd,
    Morgan Stanley & Co International Plc.

    If gold is not skyrocketing tomorrow then I don't know what to believe anymore...

  55. SLW in the green now, is this a signal for a minor bump up?

  56. GDX shrugging it off so far. it's been resilient the last few days.

    Problem is: if you try to catch a miner on a little bounce off the raid, chances are you will have a small profit for a small window of time. By end of day, that profit will have evaporated and turned into a galling loss.

  57. is this buying we're seeing?

  58. Tesla - the EE is just playing poker. If they raise their bets too high early in the game, most hands will fold and sit out.

    They need to make small bets so that more people stay in and see the bets. Then, after as much money is on the table as possible, they lay down a Royal Flush.

    It doesn't matter that they had extra ace through ten cards printed and up the sleeve... and it damn sure doesn't matter that some of the losers at the table call them on it. They get away with it anyway because they own the casino. Their goons will protect them.

    Until the game changes and they are run out of town that is how they will play the game. This is why Las Vegas, Wall Street and Washington are so large and powerful. They print the cards, they run the game, they own the casino.

    Until they don't.

  59. The tree is getting shaken folks! Hang on!

    If you're holding physical already, I think it's just a time to hunker and wait. Build up some cash an d have it ready. There may be a near-future GREAT opportunity to buy cheap PMs. A perspective-building exercise is happening in the markets right now....

  60. I got the pm flu and need to puke

  61. On the 1 minute, see how it ran back up to fill in the drop from around 33.68? I'm seeing this all the time. Anybody trying to trade this pattern?

  62. This comment has been removed by the author.

  63. Edward:
    "There may be a near-future GREAT opportunity to buy cheap PMs"

    That is just not what I wanted to hear. Just want silver to hold 33 level and from there up again.

  64. I've been trying to make a bit of fiat in quick svl option trades. Not working too well. Just gave back my gains. I think I'll sit out a while.

  65. It's looking like the first part of the raid is over with and short covering is occurring, now if we can just make it to the Asian trading hours without the EE doing their thing we might have a short term pop to around $36 before the hammer comes out again.

  66. Nothing like a good old fashioned FUBM to turn the morning around. We'll probably see another one around noon.

  67. Turd: (Re end of QE2 in June)

    Straight from the April FOMC minutes: [emphasis mine]

    "To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November. In particular, the Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings and will complete purchases of $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the current quarter. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings in light of incoming information and is prepared to adjust those holdings as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability."

  68. dunno if this has been posted... http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=2502

    He's saying we're primed for a rally, mainly based off of what he sees in the COT reports...

    Oh, and his close is brilliant... "As we are professionals in the field of market analysis, but not in the field of psychiatry, we of course only have layman's terms to describe the crazed state of mind of the average silver speculator, such as barmy, bonkers, dippy, doo-lally, gaga, garrity, kooky, loco, moonstruck, off their rockers, round the twist, a few slates short of a roof, lost their marbles, mad as a March hare, not firing on all plugs, nutty as a fruitcake, out of his tree, round the bend, stark raving mad, unhinged etc and you may be able to think of some more. They would make great subject matter for a PhD thesis, but we don't really want the men in white coats turning up and dragging them off, despite the title of this article - we need these people to keep buying high and selling low so that we can do the exact opposite." LMAO...

  69. Turd,
    I'm NOT from the gubment but I'm here to help.

    QE2; refer to Jim Rickards KWN in Dec. where he emphatically states that Bernank never put a ceiling or END DATE on QE2. Everyone assumes June and 600b or whatever it was because it was PART of what he said. Don't have time to find it now, goat caught in fence screaming gotta go.

  70. @Larry

    Thanks - makes even more sense.
    Those guys really suck - I'm double down as soon as I see a bounce above prior resistance on volume. Try to drop my cost basis and all that. But more to the point, the more I control the less they can have - screw em!

  71. At this stage you never know when lightening strikes.

    Think that there is something big going to happen soon.....

  72. I understand everyone wants silver to rally back to 40 as quickly as possible. Everyone here is hoping and wishing for pops. I understand that no one likes to see losses in their paper accounts, but wouldn't it be better to see a consolidation at this level with consistent accumulation? Wouldn't everyone in the bull camp prefer a strong, organized, trusty base?

    Just sayin'

  73. kumanari, Turd:

    "CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. As I—as I’ve noted and as you’re all aware, we are—we are going to complete the program at the end of the second quarter, $600 billion. We are going to do that pretty much without tapering. We’re just going to let the purchases end."


  74. Interesting...it didn't like 33.20 and 33 even less so. Another range bound day albeit lower?

  75. Regarding Rickards, the guy is way,way too smart for his own good. He barely has time to breath as he crams in all his knowledge into statement after statement. Its counterproductive for traders. For traders what Rickards forgot to mention is PERCEPTION is the be all and end all. If Markets perceive QE is ending even if it isn't then it means selling. Thats it. This is what we have been experiencing. Rickards may be fun to listen to but I remember clearly when I first heard this 1 month ago from him and it was supposed to be a reassurance. Not so. Not so at all. As always for now the Markets hang on the every word,whisper and whim of the Soviet Committee known as the Fed. How silly it all is. How utterly silly and deeply ironic. Until the FED is finally abolished there can never be even a semblance of free markets.

  76. 1457 tries to hold 50 day MA, then 1450 bounce, then bottom tomorrow or next day at 1430. Buy some physical soon. Hope you haven't blown your load already. Patience has been rewarded for those who have it.

  77. Nice rally off the lows. But EVERY mini-rally, until proven otherwise, is a short. I will go short several miners as we near 12:00. In the meantime, I'm playing the bounces, flipping NGD and HMY.

  78. @said

    I don't think we get slow, steady anything anymore.... there's so much hot money sloshing around, and so much government/regulatory interference, that I think will see fast movements up and down and will have to be really "nimble" (as atlee put it) to time things, or at least have the patience to ride out the wild swings to reach your buy or sell price point.

  79. WOW, 7 attempts to smack gold below $1477 in the last two hours.

  80. said - Clive Maund has some interesting things to say about Silver. Hoping for a big rally is fine but then another leg down could well surprise many. If we get a 50% bounce that will be good enough for me. That down move was a crash test dummie. It still has power behind it in my opinion.

  81. Got filled on 1000 shares of TRE on a $6.73 limit call, back up to the $6.90's. Raised my buy-in from the $6.50's, rounded bottom completing soon. Continuing to buy below that limit. Good luck all. Word ver. STRIP

  82. its holding so far. cant help but think of the scene in Gladiator where Gen Maximus tells this troops to hold the line:


    or the Battle of Stirling scene in Braveheart.

    Hold the Physical people and we will hold the line!

  83. @kiwi

    maybe not, but it took december and january to build the base for the febuary's run. i'm just saying.... it doesn't need to repond instantly as implied. to be honest, i'm quite impressed with the base that's forming. higher lows than thursday 5/12. strong volume on SLV today and some of the miners are going green. it could be a mirage fabricated via blythe/ chairsatan/ name your favorite waterboy, but i think what we're seeing is healthy base building.

    just sayin'

  84. Looking for further weakness in silver and gold but hey......when there's a blue light special like GPL and EXK gotta go do a lil shoppin......still have 60% cash......that's how ya gotta play this game ........buy when everybody is sceeeeeered and sell when everybody's buyin.....heheheheheheh

  85. Looking for a hedged short the market strategy? Here's one from Zerohedge:

    "energy stocks have outperformed utilities by an 4x order of magnitude. An almost as pronounced dispersion can be observed between financials and industrials/consumer discretionary stocks. For those who believe that the market still has to price in the end of quantitative easing part 2 (and ignore the inevitable roll out of QEx), a compression trade which involves a long Utilities/Fins and short Energy/Industrials/Consumer Discretionary would seem quite appropriate. There is however one caveat. If the market, in its traditional stupidity and irrationality, proceeds to go ahead an unwind not only the impact of QE2 but go all the way back to QE1, than the compression cohorts change drastically. While utilities are once again the worst performing sector since March 2009, and bested just barely by healthcare and consumer staples, financials are by and far the best peforming sector, having returned over 150% in the past 2 years, with consumer retail and industrials following behind. Thus, it probably makes sense to avoid any long Financial leg and focus purely on Utilities and Consumer Staples as the long led in a compression trade, while shorting Industrials and Consumer Discretionary, leaving Financials alone (John Paulson's projections of Bank of America hitting $30/share by the end of 2011 notwithstanding).

  86. time to get crushed for the next 2 hours. if you want to bottom fish, you could do it around 12:30-1:00 ET.

  87. silver has the potential to drop to 23 on the monthly chart according to S. Thompson... he doesnt know which direction we will be going but is a buyer into weakness...

  88. Just to follow up on housing comments. If the FED decides to let housing go, does not announce a new MBS purchasing program, and/or, does not work with Congress to try and "save" housing--then another round of infusions is going to have to take place into US banks because this current leg down in housing is pretty mighty. You can see in the financial indexes and bank indexes that 2011 has been a stall-out in the "recovery" for them. I have to believe the balance sheets (which are mark-to-myth already) are worsening.

    I look for the voices of Rosengren (Boston FED) and Yellen (SF FED) to become distinctly more audible in the next few weeks. They will express great concern about housing, and its "threat to the recovery."

    PS: As we all know, there is nothing the FED can do to save housing. Our focus naturally remains on all shifts and starts and stops to reflationary policy. This is why if you are involved in PMs, you have to watch housing as the rosetta stone to future FED policy and operations.


  89. "April sure was fun."

    Not if you owned SLW.

  90. x,
    bottom pg 13:....we are going to continue to reinvest maturing securities......Put another way the amount of ease, monetary policy easing, should essentially remain constant from-from June.
    In forensic speech studies we learn that when one lies they usually pause or repeat words coupled with body cues that point to the truth or lie depending how ? was asked and or answered. I just skimmed article will go over it later. Either way this train makes no stops, the brakes are fried. Mahalo

  91. Armstrong says the next major turn date/wave is June 13th, 2011. How does this fit into Au/Ag/Crude/SPX/etc? Turd? Anyone?

  92. How to play the above hedged short:

    SIJ-- Ultra SHort INdustrials
    SZK - UltraShort Consumer Goods:large-cap blend, 147 holdings

    XLU-- SPDR Utilities
    xlp-- Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund

  93. Will we hold $33 is the next big question..should be answered in about 6 seconds

  94. Dow Jones now in freefall too.
    I am staying on the side till the blood clears.
    Still believe in Ag + Au 100%, but this manipulation is criminal!

    ~~~"The Jeepster"

  95. Ahhh, and now that Blogger is allowing me to post again, here is a comment I wanted to share with all of you yesterday:


    Hey everybody:

    Re: those fractional coins, personally I'd be careful. All you silver
    bugs should be familiar with the recent "confiscation" of "liberty
    dollars" as COUNTERFEIT coinage.

    I have pared down my holding of rounds since then and am going
    strictly for bars. IMHO, the govt (when backed against the wall) may
    decide to confiscate coins as counterfeit, or if they are legal tender
    (like Walking Liberty coins) they may just say they are taking them
    back and paying you "face value" ($1? Hahhahha)

    Bullion is different and it would be totally unprecedented for feds to
    seize bullion (even in the great depression they only seized, er,
    asked people to turn in, gold COINS)

    Be careful out there, folks.
    These people are POWERFUL and they are not done playing their games
    and driving down prices yet. I would love to see metals surge higher
    but my gut says we drop some more.

    ~~~"The Jeepster"

  96. @Turd

    QE2 is ending in June. The fed announced at the last meeting that they will complete the 600bb they had previously committed. They also said they would, maintain the current balance sheet. That is the most important aspect. By maintaining the balance sheet they are replacing securities which mature. Not sure what duration they will repurchase with the maturing assets, that will be the big driver.

  97. Gold's turn to flop.

    I'm short almost everything except a substantial position in NGD that is going nowhere fast. A breach of 9.00 and I'll have to consider throwing in the towel on that one for a considerable loss.

  98. Whats going on now speaks volumes for the total lack of stability,reality and ultra rich ownership and manipulation.Europe one way or another is going to be made to look so much worse than the USA,despite the debt ceiling issue and the fact that Obama is threatening the world with financial meltdown if he does not get to print more money,this is the real story.Paper is collapsing,it is easy to force down commodity and PM prices when very little in the way of physical is changing hands.Sooner or later the game is going to fail.Do not sell your physical that will be your salvation.One way or another the USA is going to fail,whether its a no printing bankruptcy or a printing bankruptcy the only difference is the time lag.As things get more and more desperate lets just hope that the military options to try and unify a bankrupt nation are not taken and lets hope the Israel situation is not used by unpopular regimes to try and unify the Arab world.Gold to 1600 and Silver to 52 by August.JPM and Bernanke are desperate for you to sell to keep the printing,globalisation and wholesale looting of democracy and peoples futures going.

  99. You may want to check out this article:

    "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may keep reinvesting maturing debt into Treasuries to maintain record stimulus even after making good on a pledge to complete $600 billion in bond purchases by the end of June."

    And this one:

    "Bernanke said the Fed would initially hold its balance sheet steady completing the purchases. “We are going to continue to reinvest maturing securities, both Treasuries and MBS, so the amount of securities that we hold will remain” approximately constant, he said, referring to mortgage-backed securities. “The amount of monetary policy easing should remain constant going forward from June.” "

    So, formally QE2 will end, but the game actually continues by means of "reinvesting maturing debt".

    In other words: the have created more than enough fiat already. This is being kept "in stock" for now. After june, they kan keep on playing the "stimulus" game with the money they already created/, so they can formally end QE2, while at the same time they keep on flooding the marked with money.

    So, basically the money flood continues. The only difference is that this time they will use fiat money that they created in advance.

  100. Here is my 2 cents:

    Gold broke below the uptrend since January. Waiting for a retest to determine if it was a false break orchestrated by the EE raid. If we can't push back up through the trendline, I'll be buying some OTM puts.

    Silver held the uptrend since August 2010. Waiting on a breakout either way to determine my position. Since $33 has held up pretty well, i'm guessing that silver has bottomed. If we break up through the recent downtrend, i'll be buying some OTM calls. But I'm keeping my powder dry for now and patiently waiting.

    One final thought: Don't underestimate the power of deflation. Deflation is the natural order during a recession. Just because the Fed is hellbent on inflation in the longterm, it does not mean that investors can't/won't sell all assets in a panic if they fear a slowdown.

    Since May 1st, oil is down, PM's are down, Stocks are down, Real Estate is down, and bonds are up. If that's not a warning sign for deflation, then i don't know what is.

  101. I'm sure Soros is back in buying by now...

  102. @EA: Long buying candlestick tail on the near test of $33.

    But just a spike in volume could be enough to push this dinghy under.

  103. Added a DZZ position. I like silver @ 33...gold to me still has some down side. Which is good as I will be ordering physical.

  104. kumanari,

    I agree with you that everything in that press conference has to be read with skepticism and very carefully parsed, but Turd asked for the "news item" which stated definitively that QE2 was ending, and there it is.

    So, yeah, it should not be interpreted at face value, but it is what it is.

  105. Great Blog Turd!

    I'm telling you.., I was watching BNN this morning between 6:30am and 7:00am EST while gold was trading UP at about $1494. The ticker on BNN for gold was showing gold UP about ~ $3
    and the ticker was green colored indicating gold was in the green, then suddenly they change the ticker color to RED even though the gold price was still UP ~ +$3. They let it cycle thru about 4 or 5 times like that before changing it back to green color. I've seen this before on BNN and on CNBC where they do this.. usually before trading or after the close and you can BET on an ensuing price drop after this type of signalling. Its happened numerous times now.Especially on BNN, however, BNN is typically what I watch.
    To me, this is just blatent insider signalling, and it happens quickly as they don't keep it that way for very long. However they may do the signalling like on 2 different occassions in the morning like 15 or 20 mins apart. Usually I catch them doing this in the morning 1/2 before the fraudulent slam down.
    From now on if i catch it I'll record it on my PVR for posterity reasons.
    What a bunch of arrogant CROOKS!

  106. @Turd- here's a possible back door QE3


    Here's an exerpt


    QE III Courtesy of the Private Banks

    First, the Federal Reserve may be ending its current QE II asset monetization program, but it’s not it seems looking to hike its zero to 25 basis point targeted federal funds rate any time soon. And that means it will more than likely be having to supply at least some base money to the banking system (whether that be through Federal Reserve loans or asset purchases) to keep that federal funds rate in check. So yes, the Federal Reserve will not be juicing the money supply at any where near the roughly $75 billion per month rate that we are currently experiencing under QE II, but additions to the money supply their will likely be courtesy of the Federal Reserve.

    Second, and far more important, the private banking system will by June’s end be sitting on somewhere between $1.6 and $1.7 trillion in excess reserves, meaning the fuel for the banking system to expand the money supply is in a word explosive. Indeed, at a reserve requirement ratio of 10% (the most restrictive reserve requirement ratio currently imposed by the Federal Reserve on private banks) the private banking system – if it be willing to lend, or if it can’t find willing/able borrowers at the very least be willing to buy existing securities – is in a position to expand the money supply by a massive $17 trillion. On a TMS2 metric that as of April 2011 stood at $7.6 trillion, we are theoretically looking at a money supply some 3.2 times higher than today.

  107. i'll add that I think that's a smart move on his part- rotating out of the metal and into the miners, given their underperformance.

  108. Shill,

    What's up with DZZ? Only up .13. DGZ is up .14? Where's the double leberage in DZZ?

    DZZ is no ZSL, I'll tell you that.

  109. I also think a lot of this price action is due to the debt ceiling issue. As soon as it IS raised, there will be a pop in everything.

    Until then though, the market is anticipating forced austerity.

  110. i dunno, if you got the cash, you should be buying down here at 147x given the risk/reward

  111. Shill,

    What's up with DZZ? Only up .13. DGZ is up .14? Where's the double leberage in DZZ?

    DZZ is no ZSL, I'll tell you that.


    I agree with that for sure SSK

  112. Soros sold 9.2 million shares of NG. SO that's who had the never-ending ask. Now which big money a-hole had cluster sold SLW, GPL, EXK, and every other silver miner?

    Just asking.

  113. according to that article I posted, he (supposedly) piled into miners.

  114. @the dude, give us a heads up if you see it again, wld be v. interested to watch, imagine if it really was that blatant lol

  115. I think it may be worthwhile to buy at whatever close price on the Globex later and hold it for the start of the HKMEx Gold futures trading tomorrow.

    Could be one of the those typical IPO launches where there is an initial rally in prices.

    I'm still seeing some nice long buying candlestick tails at $33 on the H1.

  116. George soros is a fucking asshole who works for the banking cabal accoridng to jim willie ( must read subscription). Soros and buffet are part of the disinformation team inorder to get people to sell their stock...

    also, i have 32.5 as the edge in the wedge for silver.. if it breaks we are definitely screwed.

  117. I dont understand why any bogus technical price points need to hold, as was so eloquently put in that great link Turd gave us to Ranting Andy last night.

    With High Frequency Trading (ever since this raid began the silver volume of open interest has gone supernova, more than a year's production in a day) the cornered Banks like JPMorgan just ping pong orders back and forth relentlessly driving the price down through bonafide traders.

    Normally, you would have a regulatory body to stop this manipulative behavior. Instead, we have the CFTC run by Goldman Gary Gensler, and Commisioners like Jill Sommers whose creditentials include a Bachelor of Arts degree from the midwest, and serving as an intern for Republican candidates in the 1980s.

    The wacky and wildly wonderful unintended outcome of this corrupt farce, is that it inadvertenly pushes down the price of physical silver, which is genuinely terminal short supply.

    So, for the kind of folks who dont take the Federal Reserve or Tepco and their word, it provides a momentous buying opportunity.

  118. We are going to 30,there is no doubt about it.

  119. DOW is getting hammard as well.

  120. I asked Roger Wiegand of the Korelin Economics report what I should do with my AGQ holdings. He told me he thinks that it can come back on the cycle in the next 2-4 weeks and again this fall or later august.
    He advised me to hold it for now and watch it carefully, and then ask him again in a few days. Then I read the February 2009 article from Seeking Alpha, "Double and Triple ETF's Decay Their Value Faster, by Design."


    I think it's hopeless that AGQ will get to the 370s again, and I'd like to cut my losses and never touch AGQ again. I'd just rather cut my losses when it's back above 200, and not where it is today.

    I see silver is now 32.90. I guess that means we're going into the 20s. Fuck my life.

  121. we are all going for a ride ... buckle up gents..

    Diamond sorry to hear about your losses... it sucks..


    must read from trader dan

  122. Diamond, just a possible solution. Could you also short/day trade (up and down) AGQ with some of your cash to make up losses?

  123. At this point, I'd expect somebody from the Fed coming on the tube to reassure the masses that the "Fed will support the market blah blah blah"... they certainly did enough speachifying the last few weeks to help push commodity prices down...

  124. for newbies who are trading:

    pls get a grip on what it is u r trying to do:

    r u here to protect ur wealth or to make money day trading? if u r here simply for day trading purposes that's fine, but u should know what u r doing. if u have to ask "what should i do with my xyz daytrade leveraged position" u should prob close them. seriously. it is reasonable to be short now from technical trading standpoint but u have to know what u r doing, which particularly means u already know in advance if u r in or out, and ur allocation. i'm not saying don't ask, i mean i like to hear from other traders also to get an idea of thought process. but if u r asking in a panicked mode, be careful.

    on the other hand, it is insane to sell PM right now. look at ur allocation and stick to it. if u decided 10% was good and now it has dropped to 7% b/c of the decline, u should prob be buying. i'm buying physical every day until i hit back my 10% physical PM allocation. i am doing this while at the same time occasionally shorting silver or equities, they are different thought processes.

    if u r selling PM b/c u need cash urgently, u should not be investing in PM or anything until u have at least enough cash to get by for 3 months or so in case of emergency or no job. if u don't meet this requirement, i wouldn't waste time "protecting assets" but rather focus on accumulating assets.

  125. Silver's really not liking $33 too much.
    There's some folks out there who smell too good a deal to resist apparently.

  126. Thanks Diplocat for ansering my question, last thread. Regards

  127. Uhhh... if I thought something was going much, much lower I would sell it.

  128. @Diamond. I'd be very careful!
    That is just as corrupted an ETF as is what Horizons Beta Pro version is: HZU.TO
    These theiving scumbags all of a sudden decide to do a 3 for 1 split right before all the margin hikes is when they announce it (yet, they don't announce it too loudly)..in fact they strive to catch as many as they can by keeping the split real quiet and low key leading up to it. Then right out of the blue they rebalance the etf price but withhold all the shares that should be allotted for those that got caught holding their criminal paper for at least a week. Share price went from ~$34
    to ~$11 after the rebalancing theft and by the time they released the shares to the holders of that criminal crap etf it was sub $9..
    I'm sure alot of people got robbed on that one!
    The real question is why would they need to rebalance when the ETF is only trading @
    $40-$50?? I was surprisied not to see yet another CME nargin hike in silver while they were withholding everybodies shares.

    Weird how when they do a reverse split they can snatch your shares away in the blink of an eye and rebalance the ir etf prices in a nano second... no one week long delay when it bennefits them the other way..
    ETF's are just theft paper..stay away! JMO

  129. lots of bad news today, yet things really are not coming down too much.

    I have a feeling we're going to see a bounce in commodities and stocks soon. If not later today then tomorrow.

    All it will take is an absence of bad news, and up we go.

    And if there is a piece of good news, I think we'll see a pretty damn good rally.

    Feels stupid to be buying here, so it's almost certainly the right thing to do.

  130. what is the ZSL equivalent for the broader market?

  131. Impact Silver, I should have known that after an impact there is left but a crater. -10.44% a little bit ago.

    GPL, -8%
    First Majestic, -5.5%
    Silvercorp, -5%

    Perfectly natural responses to the underlying commodity being down 1%, right? CDE has been the one fairly solid miner.

    Does anybody know a company that actually puts perfectly good silver into the ground? Apparently taking it out of the ground is not a good model. Should I be looking at landfill operations instead?

  132. Tyler,


  133. $33 is the spot we talked about yesterday. This is your spot. Have a mental stop if you are inclined to beleive the $30 potential. GTLA.

    Ps. anyone thinking of shorting miners at this level should just go ahead and paint a bullseye on their forehead. MHO

  134. ...regarding features of the new site,

    I'm sure there's no lack of suggestions and ideas but.... do you know money.stackexchange.com?

    Its a good example how to deal with comment rating, reputation points etc. The basic idea is to always place the most voted for comments on the top, which is quite efficent in keeping off the trolls.

    Take a look at this:


    Then of course we'd need realtime, short-term sentiment indicators which are weighted by users rep...

  135. Did we not already have a low of $32.35 and expect a retest of that level this week? Did we not expect this to be a good thing? Why is it that now all these BS comments "going to 30!" are coming out of the woods?

    Crossing $32.99 does not indicate a test of $30! Any consolidation above $32.35 is a good thing and we are nicely consolidating in the $33's.

    I'm liking what I see here and things are going pretty much to plan. Already took a few nibbles on July call's which gives me some time to walk away for awhile and not listen to the gloom & doomers.

    My only question is to those that are too focused on fear to recognize an opportunity. If your going to wait indefinitely to buy at a discount, what will it take before you recognize that discount? Will you wait until we see Ag $49 again to confirm things are going well and buy at that time?

    Seems like a very tough way to make money by buying at the highs and selling at the lows...

  136. Good grief - am I really the only one feeling a bit bullish here? Bought Ag yesterday, and bought more today. My target is to get back most of what I sold higher, and to get it between $30 - $34.

    I'm no technical analyst, but I thought we were all waiting for a double bottom. By my reckoning that means two drops down to the 32.70-ish area. Today we had the second drop there.

    So either that's the bottom, or we'll need two taps down somewhere else. I think $28 is very unlikely - I anticipate very strong buying at $30, and doubt we'll even get that far down.

    Remember what happened to Au (and Ag) when there was all the controversy about US spending a while ago? And we're going to have big headlines soon about a row over the debt ceiling. I'm sure that'll help move the PMs along and get them out of the 'wedge' they're currently in. Add Euro worries and the HK exchange into the mix, and I'm feeling rather hopeful.

    All I see here is my wished-for buying range, and I'm making hay while the sun shines. All this talk of '2008 all over again' is totally overblown IMO.

  137. i think i like this sprott kat - seems a lot less slippery than the others.


  138. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/russell-napier-bear-market-bottom-will-be-sp-400

    It is no secret that CLSA's Russell Napier has not been a fan of QE2. As he pointed out in his recent prominent note, "whether equities will fall further depends on how flexible and successful the Fed’s next monetary package will be. Given the risk, investors are better off watching from the sidelines." He further explained: "A risk to reflation would send equities sharply lower. The failure of QEII will undermine investor faith in a monetary solution. With equities near bubble valuations, based on cyclically adjusted PE, a failure to reflate risks major downside. The Fed will try again with a new package, but investors would do best by waiting to see how it plays out." Since as of now we still don't know when and if there even will be a package, here is Napier once again, interviewed by the FT's Long View, presenting his updated views on the economy. His outlook, which we agree with entirely, is that first we will see another major deflationary shock, following which the Fed, already boxed in a corner, will have two choices: let major financial institutions fail, or proceed to monetize outright. Regardless of which outcome is picked, Napier's target for the S&P, which just happens to coincide with that of Albert Edwards, is not pleasant for the bulls: 400 (or somewhere in that vicinity). And that will be the true generational buying bottom.

    Time short the S&P, lets see puts on E-mini's

  139. Alex,
    Your comments were practical & encouraging ..and made alot of sense. TY!

  140. I picked up some AGQ at $156....time to ride!

  141. @ Alex
    right on brother. Nice M3 convertible too!

  142. Alex, Atlee - great minds think alike, etc. :-)

  143. Merci pour le "fait accompli", c'est le premier mot que je comprend dans votre blog, depuis des mois que je le lis !
    Pourquoi je continue a le lire me direz-vous ? Bein j'ai vaguement compris que ca decrit une guerre des etoiles, ca a l'air pas mal, avec du suspens :)

  144. So much confusion, typical of a period of high volatility and despair and uncertainty. Norcini though helpful can be very tiresome in my opinion because so much of the work is using a rear view mirror with the action. Its up, its down, its up,its down, if,if,if,if.... and on and on. The truth is best summed up in his last paragraph on his blog today. This is a hedgefunds-gone-wild period we are in now. Who knows?

  145. Metals are getting to the "tired trade" stage.

    People will move on to the next thing.

  146. ..you too Diplocat.. ..good perspective..

  147. @ MisesFan
    I think I am in love!

  148. @ diplocat
    Welcome to the party my friend!

  149. Just saw that gold visited 1472 levels today and now bouncing off to 1477..

    If we check the zodiac for where Venus and Mercury are today, they are loacted at 02 deg Taurus, which is equal to 32 deg measured from Aries.

    Take 32 deg as the basis anagle, and we add 360 consecutive to it, we have the planetary price lines for Venus and Mercury located at

    32 + 360 + 360 + 360 + 360 = 1472

    Mar is at 04 deg Taurus, thus 34 deg from Aries

    34 + 360 + 360 + 360 + 360 = 1474

    Below this is Jupiter at 26 deg Aries

    26 + 360 x 4 = 1466

    The drop was precipiated at the full moon for moon 180 deg aspect to Sun. The drop went straight into the 1472 level.

    With 4 planetary lines located at 1474, 1472(2) and 1466. The EE needs a pluto force to break through all these lines.

    If mean reverting principles apply, the price will likely be repelled upward when the moon change sign to Sag in one hour time.


  150. Pushing back up to 33.80-ish intraday, in time for the Comex close sell-off? Let's see.....

  151. Is that a head and shoulders pattern in the EUR/USD today?

    Anyone have a comment on Mining Indexes? They are for the most part holding now (except for SIL, which is near its 200day MA), and have been consolidating at these lows. A dive through these levels would signal much more pain to come (and probably to gold/silver themselves). Just wondering if anyone has any input on the indexes, especially $HUI and $XAU.

  152. @atlee - Just following the playbook. Have some dry powder left for the unexpected.

  153. I'm shorting every rally until the pm market proves me wrong. Guess that puts the old bulls-eye on me.

  154. I set three limit orders and took a nap (dumb, dumb, dumb) and woke up to have them all filled:

    AGQ at $153.01
    EXK at $8.10

    (these two purchases average down existing positions)

    And PHYS at $12.61 (this is a totally new position.)

    I hope we base and move up BUT someone here quoted someone here about the possibility of a depression and $125 Au and $4.00 Ag which wouldn't bother me much since I could pull my IRAs at probably $100K less penalties and interest and just buy physical gold. I love those centenarios now the soveriegns and of course the double eagles. Would be nice to stock up on them at depression prices. This is not to say that I want anyone who is trading to make fiat profit should lose, I just wouldn't mind because I like the metals for their physical beauty more than their monetary value.

    Huxley Ann

  155. Bhu,

    C'est un peu pres d'une guerre des etoiles, t'as raison. Cependant, en cette version il parait que c'est toujours l'Empire qui gagne... ;-)

    C'a malheureusement l'effet d'abimer le suspens un peu, aussi...

  156. Call me silly or stupid or whatever. Am I the only one here who is still holder XAG $38(1000 oz) and $35(8000 oz)? I'm a true believer in PM. If it will take a whole year for the market to get back above $40, so be it!! I'm so sick of this raid and I am not going to back out from here!!

    I was in the 2008 market and I didn't do anything by then either, just wait it out. The only difference is that at that time, all I had was physical.

    -Turd, keep up the good work, I always enjoy your cool analysis.

  157. @SSK
    Admire your moxey. Maybe you are right. But if you are not and you short the bottom, you may need a rubber room. Good luck man.

  158. @Huxley Ann
    I like the way you think. Amazingly cool under pressure to take a nap with open orders in this storm. Bravo!

  159. @ timer

    On a personal basis, my ascendent is 5º 32" Taurus so the current transits seem pretty good in my natal. Things should really get nice when Jupiter transits there.



  160. Scottj88 you can check this http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-E-bIOvGrjME/TcrZjnYeHgI/AAAAAAAAAaQ/vUlP3Ajsh5M/s1600/snapshot-682.
    Timer at new moon we will have a moonshot hopefully.

  161. @SSK - How's it feel being one of Blythe's monkeys? She feeding ya well?

  162. Amen Atlee and Diplocat. Good as always to see you in the trenches. We all thought the same thing at the same time it would appear.

    Nice little FUBM going on right now. Perhaps our recent posts are moving the markets! :)

    Ginger, Anytime!

    Wouldn't it be something to get into the $34's today? Be great to see the 8H trend roll over.

    (Troll disclamer: The above statement is only to be taken as a joke. I do not actually believe 3 people can move the markets. It is only a joke!)

  163. atlee:

    not directed at you :-)


    Uranus is a planet and it's real big

    word verify: donolyin ROFLMFAO

  164. Timer I thought I had seen it all. That post expresses a level of uncertainty and hope I have not seen before. Definitely a sign marker. I am simply hoping that Jesus returns sometime before the Comex close and hurls a thunderbolt at the Bernank, turning him to ash in a split second.

    The Gorgon of 08' hangs over most traders, a terrifying symbol of fear and loathing. So be it. It will always be like this in the Markets. Days of unrelenting fear cycling over into wild greed and absurd optimism.

  165. @ atlee

    Gosh, praise from you is like praise from TF man, I'm blushing! Honestly!


  166. a little disappointed drops are coming on the bigger volume and the rises on the lower volume... I guess we'll see more volume on the buy side if the shorts decide to cover.

    still following the plan - not really sure what's changed about buy targets etc.

  167. COMEX close is going to be revealing.

    Atlee, rubber room is about right. Actually, I've found a new equilibrium the last couple of days. Hitting steady base hits on the short side. That said, I'm still holding a sizable accumulation of NGD.

    Gotta run. More shorts to put down. TRE is looking tasty again over 7.

  168. the action in $SLV will embolden the bulls today if it holds. think the floor could drop out tomorrow.


  169. uptofreedom,

    How does it feel to have Blythe's five fingers, palm, wrist, forearm, elbow, and shoulder pounding your bunghole?

  170. @atlee,
    Uranus is at 3 deg Taurus 27, 1443 is the planetary line level.

    the events that are coming up for this week...

    1. moon leaves Scorpio (ruled by Mars/Pluto) for Sag (ruled by Jupiter)

    2. Moon trine (240) Uranus (18 May)

    3. Moon conjunct Node (19 May)

    4. Moon conjunct pluto (20 May)

    5. Mar trine Pluto (20 May)

    6. Mercury max dist to earth S to N (20 May)

  171. I can understand not going long here, but shorting is a big risk, IMO.

  172. Silver could be in the GREEN in about..6 seconds

  173. @ Timer

    Uranus is at 3 deg ARIES right now, not Taurus.



  174. Here comes the Calvary, insane volatility both ways...

  175. dipping my toes back in the PSLV waters (401K). Here's hoping we do have strong support in the 33's (33.50 seems to be holding).

  176. @Huxley Ann,

    Yup, you are right, my typo there.

    Uranus is at 3 deg Aries, thus 3 + 360 x 4 = 1443 is its planetary price level.

  177. Shorted a basket of miners here.

    I see the rallies being sold again and again. You chase the upward momentum and you'll find yourself in the red an hour later. We are in a collapse not seen since '08. The trend ain't to the upside.

    Following chart support in this savage selling spiral seems dubious to me. It tells you where support ought to be. Reality on the other hand . . .

  178. FOAGQ. Buying near 33 selling anytime I see charts go sour.

    Interesting that 33 and 34 won't be breached despite the higher overnight.

  179. @Timer

    what colour is the moon in your world?

  180. Hmmmm, ok, double top coming at 33.80 +/- a smidge, then to the lows, I'm thinking....

  181. Scottj,
    I think you said you sold your GGCRF (or some part of it) a while back.. .Have you looked at the price lately? LOL. :|

    I'm still in and still holding just as firmly to it. I really hope to add more but I want be able to until next week. ....How's that for a glutton for punishment? :D ...I'm betting at this point you are glad you sold ...you are looking very spiffy and genius-like here as compared to me. ;)

    I *still* believe in this miner. Let's just hope I'm rewarded. ...someday ... somehow... someway.

  182. @humahuaca

    Silvery White....with some black spots here and there...today it looks quite big and round.

    seeing from afar in Singapore.

  183. I am with SSK here...short is the direction.

    Any small upside seems like a trap to me. Lord knows the EE loves your money.

  184. Die Welt': Iran building rocket bases in Venezuela?
    German paper says Iranians paid cash to build mid-range missile launch pads on Paraguana Peninsula; Iranian engineers visited site in Feb.
    This is some serious shit

  185. Hell yes, I bought TFD. Are you kidding me? This was the perfect day to pick up some bargains. As humahuaca indicated, there was a general selloff on some bad news, but the market has a short memory. I'm betting this was a higher low for both metals, and we'll be seeing at least a couple of substantial up days from here. The dollar looks toppy, too. The big players are salivating over taking scalps from new shorts who came late to the party. Easy pickings.

  186. @ pailin
    Where is field marshall Pailin? We need you to bring up the artilery!

  187. @ Timer

    You obviously are using a much more complicated astrologcal/investing system than I use but you might well be interested in "Moon Wobbles" which were discovered by Carl Payne Tobey under who I studied back in 1974 in Tucson. He was pretty derisive about using astrology to invest but the one thing he did tell me was not to buy or sell ten days before or after a moon wobble becomes exact. http://www.astrologyweekly.com/forum/archive/index.php/t-4087.html



  188. To all those trying to catch the bottom, Rev Shark on the Real Money site has a unique trading strategy that requires a discipline I lack. Nonetheless, I admire it. His words today:

    "When the market is acting like this, I have one very simple rule: Stay out of the way. The most important thing you can do is protect your capital. The good opportunities will eventually set up, and you aren't going to miss them by staying patient and waiting for the selling to play out.

    The important thing isn't that you buy a stock at its exact low but that you buy it when it is has the best chance of a sustained uptrend. Too many market players think they have to buy into the teeth of a decline to make money, and institutional Wall Street will help promote that view. Lots of folks have a vested interest in making sure you stay tied to the market. They don't want you in cash, because there is a risk you might leave the market completely."

    I'm a tader and hate sitting on my hands. So I set aside a position to trade while keeping my money (almost entirely liquidated of miners except NGD and deep, old holdings in HL, GG, and ABX) freed up for a confirmed bottom.