Thursday, May 5, 2011

Cinqo de Bottomo

I'm really liking the action tonight. Frankly, I was expecting this last night and $4 higher but I digress.

Take a look at this. Note that just as the top last week came as a parabola, today's action has put a downward parabola on this hourly chart.
Remember, parabolas can't be maintained because, tangentially, you're going either straight up or straight  down and, simply, that can't continue. We are ripe for a bounce for a number of reasons:

1) POSX has already run into the top-end of its Calvin near 74.25 on the June.
2) Silver down over 25% in 4 days.
3) Potentially lousy BLSBS report tomorrow am.
4) We already know that margins are being raised again Monday night. This removes a lot of the  overhanging uncertainty, at least for a few days.
5) Seemingly everybody and their brother is now short silver.

IF silver can continue to rally, a virtuous cycle will develop. If you shorted anytime from noon yesterday to today, you're sitting on a healthy profit. As silver moves higher, you start thinking about ringing the register. Above $37, it gets pretty tempting to cover. At $39, the chart starts to look like a panic/capitulation bottom is in. Buyers begin to see a market whose fundamentals haven't changed yet is priced at a 20-25% discount to it's highs. Shorts begin to get squeezed and begin to cover even more quickly. This is what I HOPE will happen.

A word of caution, however. The pace and duration of the rebound will dictate whether we see a V-shaped or a double bottom. This must be closely monitored. Thankfully for you, I will be happy to do the monitoring. All you have to do is check back regularly for updates.

Good night and good luck. TF

269 comments:

  1. You the best Turd. Thank you for the analysis.

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  2. Perhaps we have a bottom, perhaps we do not. Someone better be quick afoot to trade in here.

    Thanks for the update Turd.

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  3. It's time to look at the historical charts and see how silver rallied after the two previous 30% corrections. That's my homework for tonight.

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  5. (From the last thread)

    Remember BOS are PHYSICAL buyers of size. They are NOT comex scam paper contract buyers of size. Nor are they SLV option buyers of size. Nor any of those margin/leverage stuff that has induced a great deal of loss for the newbies here.

    We the shrimps should therefore always focus on physicals and the next best things to physicals - mining shares - while keeping our over-speculation desire under check. Like many have pointed out, should your positions be based mostly on physical and non-margined mining shares you would not suffer big un-recoverable loss.

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  6. Sorry for the repost, but I couldn't resist:

    Just bought a bag of junk silver.

    715 oz of pure FUBM. (well, ... 90%, anyway).

    I've never bought junk silver before. I usually buy eagles, maples or 100 oz JM bars. Looking forward to it.

    Hope the price goes down. I'm making arrangements to buy another next week.

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  7. Turd, it can happen. Just look at silver historically. There have been parabolas straight down, and they have tended to end up in the realm of the single digit. Unfortunately, that could happen again, although given the current fundamentals, I would be flabbergasted if hat occurred.

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  8. And check back we will!

    Buying some physical tomorrow and feeding the Turd to! Have a good one man.

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  9. "Your Order Has Been Placed Successfully!"

    I was already thinking the same thing before I came here. You just confirmed it.

    A bit more for my stack and the journey continues.

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  10. Thanks Turd! Crossing my fingers...

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  11. Just be careful that this isn't a bull trap before a slam down to $20.

    I doubt it but keep vigilant I guess?

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  12. My contacts started moving today to accumulate more physical. I see elsewhere that others are doing the same. (Davies, at Hinde Capital as reported on KWN.) My review of the online dealers suggests the standard bearer coins, Leafs and ASE's are available though many of the issuance dates are quickly selling out. There is also some minor anecdotal evidence that some small, storefront dealers are finding ways to not sell. (Doing inventory, going on break, etc.)

    I'm intrigued with the social aspects of recent silver accumulation as well. Given that both gold and silver remain arcane to the general populace (though that has indeed started to change some) I am pretty confident that a scramble for physical is now being triggered by the price drop.

    Oh, I am using the 2004 repricing year for Oil as a guide to what's coming for silver. That was the year oil repriced above 40.00 I think silver is in an analagous process.

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  13. Asia finally making a bid. Absolutely criminal take down, but also a nice opportunistic accumulation phase take advantage of it.

    And above all a personal reflection in ones positions going forward. They are not labeled TBTF for nothing.

    Now learn from it and get it back.

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  14. Your the BEST TF - Thanks!

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  15. reposting -

    The more I think about it the more it seems that something big is on the horizon. However, I have no idea what it is.

    Doesn't it seem unlikely that they would make up this OBL thing and then bring the margin hikes and take out commodities? I saw someone stating that this was laying the groundwork for an Obama re-election campaign, but that seems a bit premature to me.

    Would they do all of this just to prevent a Comex default? I don't really think so. This could be the last pump of the dollar while they sink PM price and banks and governments grab as much physical as possible...like Mexico

    I guess we all know the end game, but I still believe it's closer than we think. You have to admit we probably won't see it coming (as usual)

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  16. green candle /SI on the 100 day MA

    c'mon let's get this thing goin again, see u kids tomorrow. i hope this allows enough breathing room for the crimex to allow me to milk that silver cow again

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  17. I'm drinking again tonight...

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  18. "Thankfully for you, I will be happy to do the monitoring. All you have to do is check back regularly for updates."

    And Turd, we are thankful for you and this fantastic blog, where like minded people can come together in support of each other in times like these. Also, it's good to see that you no longer feel dejected when the criminals do their dastardly deeds and you fail to call the exact bottom or top every time. Look, if we don't make 1600 by the middle of June so what? In such criminally insane unfair markets how can you possibly be to blame for not calling this. No one can predict what these bastards will do precisely, how far they will go to screw the world. Anyways, its nice to see you don't fault yourself. Know that you have a huge following of people who support you all the way, right or wrong in your projections. We know you are honest and very very well informed and educated and have a skill that most of us only dream we had. Hopefully, we can learn to be as smart as you in our trading decisions and knowledge.

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  19. From your lips to God's ear, Turd.

    Back to work. These are not normal times.

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  20. Do not agree that this is over yet. Maybe very short term we'll see a rallye. OI still way too high. Also, the last margin increases will only take effect as of today, and the next (maybe last?) margin increase will only take effect as of Tuesday.

    Tuesday is also the IMF conference on the international monetary system. I don't suppose they let silver rallye into that.

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  21. 715 oz of pure FUBM. (well, ... 90%, anyway).

    Titus, I love it!!!

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  22. If it goes straight down, that'll be awesome. I'll be sitting outside the coin shop waiting for it to hit zero. Then I'll walk in and ask them to give me all of their silver. What could possibly go wrong!

    @Fort...
    I like your bathtub theory. I don't see any reason why the EE would NOT fleece the sheep a second time after getting them all to go short.

    I going to buy some TZA in the morning. I don't think Evil is a troll. As someone else said, he's been very prescient in the past.

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  23. How does one confirm a bottom? We have $2500 for more physical but don't want to waste it, if you know what I mean.

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  25. Top post Ben, top post indeed.

    Its posts like this, that gets the spirit going..I raise my glass in your direction.

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  26. Nothing has changed.

    Keep stacking physical because the #1 reason why you finally took the plunge to buy physical has not changed one bit. Bullion is on sale, for now. I just stopped by Cabelas today and loaded up on my "other" favorite metal and thats copper !!! They have a great ammo sale going on now until Sunday plus they have a sale on .40 caliber service exchange Glocks for $350 bucks. Cant beat that price.

    Oh yeah, stocked up on another 10 tubes of maples. I wanted to pick up a full monster box but the tax man did a number on my FRN holdings a few weeks back.

    NB

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  27. Closed 100 ASE's today @ $34.55 ea.
    Let's keep in mind the excitement of past Fridays.....! Great time for a second chance!
    Hang in there, everyone! Peace, Love and Ag

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  28. Bought 500 ounces last night... too bad it wasn't this evening, but hey, I'm still happy. Love ya Turd!

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  29. Pablo you were agonizing earlier today about putting all your family's money in metals - don't spend it all in one place!

    If anything buy some gold

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  30. Markus: Please understand, I'm not saying its over, either.
    In fact, IF a rally can take us back toward 40, I'll gladly offload the 2 July 45s I bought yesterday because I would expect a dip back toward double or H&S bottom territory before 5/20.

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  31. I'm watching the Asian Market tonight like a hawk. Today the possible bottom? Holding my focus and breath.

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  32. $34.26 seems like a reasonable bottom, good bounce so far, at the end of the day we know where it's going long term, so if you can hold out, do so. I am.

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  33. And this is for Scottj88:

    According to the poll, taken before the announcement of Osama bin Laden's death, President Barack Obama has an edge over all the top GOP candidates in hypothetical match-ups.
    Who does best against Obama? Paul. The congressman from Texas, who also ran as a libertarian candidate for president in 1988 and who is well liked by many in the tea party movement, trails the president by only seven points (52 to 45 percent) in a hypothetical general election showdown. Huckabee trails by eight points, with Romney down 11 points to Obama.

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  34. does anyone know how inventory is looking at APMEX and others?

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  35. APMEX...slight delay in ASE's. Around May 13th. But, my order on Wed. (60 ASE's) was shipped today.

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  36. Turd, I voted for Paul the first time around, and tried like hell to get the Sheeple to listen to this man...Nope not a one.

    Bought Ron Paul for President T shirts for the kids, loved it when they wore them to school. The Liberal Nostrils would flare.

    F'em.

    Your the best Trurdman.

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  37. Ron Paul winning would be the biggest FUBM in history.

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  38. Pablo, just follow Turd. While not perfect, his timing is exquisite,it is right more often than not, and is the best in the business. You can take into account with confidence his analysis and make your own judgements as to when to pull the trigger and jump back in. I think that time is now, but we have another phony jobs figures report tomorrow put out by the biggest propagandist ever in the history of mankind. So, there could be some funny business again tomorrow until the Buyers of Size" step back in and restore sanity to his crazy market. Personally, if I were buying physical, I would do it now and get all you can get at as low a price as possible. Don't worry about it going down further, we are in a bull market and it will cover your not so perfect timing.

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  39. JP MORGAN WANTS YOUR SOUL!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VH_DkBI9Qsk

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  40. I have been a lurker for a while and today I thought I would say to you, TF ,that you do a sterling job and in a world where you normally get nothing for nothing you stand out as a ethical person in a not so ethical business. Lastly,I think Santa's advice is spot on, put a french curve on the chart and buy the break of the curve.

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  41. I've been nibbling on the way down, but nothing major. Today with the heavy action on the downside....I was hoping that the Overseas markets might start to find a bid this evening. I'm not holding my breathe because I wonder how much the margin hike next week is priced in.

    I agree with Turd on the potential to see some of the shorts cover is we see the price move up to $37. I am not sure how many shorts want to hold their positions over this weekend. Let's face it...the shorts have had a banner week and, since FRNs are the name of the game for them, then I can see them cashing some of their action in to show their EE bosses how they've been good little demons.

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  42. Turd,

    On behalf of all Canadians, if RP wins 2012 we will gladly become the 53rd state.

    Joking,

    CC

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  43. It seems from monitoring the comments we've made it through our worst collective thoughts sometime early this evening. While many were caught off guard by the timing and severity of the correction, we have adjusted to accepting what happened. Now it can be seen as a buying opportunity, and eventually we will get back on the bull.

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  44. Turd, Just like I called a bottom without 2 hours of what we now refer to as "Turds bottom"... and then posted here on the site that night. Tonight I bought more physical and I desperately want to call it again. To be honest, I'm not that confident, but I'm willing to put a few grand on the bet... so I bought more from an online dealer.

    The physical squeeze is now on. I know for a fact that the equities market is about to tank this next week. Its pure manipulation of course... its all the built up selling for the last three months piled into one week. You'll see.

    Anyway, I don't care where the short term moves. Just like in January when I called the bottom, tonight I can confidently say that we won't hit lower than maybe a dollar from here (currently 35.46) While I think I 34.36 or whatever it is ... is indeed the ultimate bottom, I'm not betting more thank $40k on it.

    That said, I'm betting $40k we hit a new "turds bottom" tonight and I have the trade records to back it.

    Peace guys.

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  45. Silvers dip will be brief!! by Jason Hommell

    Gotta love this guy. Good read for all silver investors.

    http://news.silverseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1304613633.php

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  47. Layoffs as of late have picked up 10 fold.

    http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/

    ( Yearns for an edit feature )

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  48. On the topic of bottoms, check this post out from Franklin Sanders where he calls the correction for Silver to reach $34, great site by the way goldprice.org:

    http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/2011/05/silver-price-targeting-34-and-gold.html

    It's not really magic, he missed the gold target by $15-$80, but he's correctly pointed out that the 130 day moving average has held silver since 2008, the hypothesis has held during this correction as well...so far anyway.

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  49. Curb... thanks for mentioning my "bath tub" post. I was wondering if anyone even read it! ;)

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  51. "B": Nice call.

    fyi, you only gat a bottom named after you if you have your own blog ;)

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  52. OK, I've taken a modest beating, as have many of you in the past week or so. Started with holding a small AGQ position over the weekend. I got stopped out of all my main holdings, and have lost modestly seeking entry points that looked solid and then had my tight stops blown out. Live and learn about how to hedge against free-falls.


    OK, so here's a true story that might add some perspective (and made my week).

    I ordered 20 rounds from Great Panther about a month ago, and NW Territorial, who mints the GP stuff backordered 9 of the rounds (BTW, the cust service from GP was awesome to clear it all up), which showed up today.

    At dinner tonight, I showed my kids the coins and said, "well, unfortunately, they are worth less today then when I bought them a few weeks back since commodities got whacked pretty hard this week." My 9 year son says "why is that dad, did silver get less scarce this week?

    Didn't have a good supply/demand answer for him on the physical, and will discuss paper silver with him at some later point (like after it implodes, and dear 'ol dad was proven right!).

    Anyway, in spite of the pain this week and last, I still have the physical, my kids (and wife who puts up with me) and dry powder in the trading account. Helps to maintain perspective.

    I've not thanked Turd and all of you for your insights and support over the past 5 months or so...THANKS

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  53. Fort buddy sorry about that. It was an awesome analogy. That's what happens when you make them so clear. I was busy looking for a looming sponge in case I was one of the drops that got sloshed out in the tsunami.

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  54. Turd, you deserve the bottom name. No hard feelings here. Congrats man, you've put your heart and sole into it and you deserve credit.

    But please beware that the S&P is breaking down pretty hard and next week is going to be ... shall we say ... "tough". The conductor of this orchestra is not so kind to us silver instruments.

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  55. Turd,

    I'm still learning TA, so, if you'd care to critique: From the Jan low to the high ~35.40 is the 61.8% retracement give or take a bit. After hours, we got a bounce right about there. The EE has demonstrated that they are (for now) in control of the market, and silver will go as low as they want it. Question is, how low do they want it? I gotta think the third retracement is probably plausible (ahem) for an overheated mkt. More, I have 34.23 as the 100dma, non-weighted, and it bounced off it twice. Is that what you're seeing? I've not you're expertise in the silber markt, so I'm not sure what confirmation would be available in the aftermarket action. Care to eddikate me?

    Thx again btw

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  56. And in all the hubbub, don't forget the discussion we had last week about gold leading silver for a while.
    Note that the gold chart already looks much more like a bottom than silver.
    Just sayin.

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  57. Fortinbras -
    I thought a lot about your bath tub analogy today. Have you seen Soros in the movie "Inside Job" talking about how tankers are built with compartments to stop the massive waves from sloshing the length of the vessel? Banking and commodity deregulation was akin to the compartments, breaking up the long and destructive wave action. We need breakers in our tub.

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  58. Lest we forget the lessons of Crude Oil '08. I think when you see crap like this (25% in 4 days) you know it's manipulated but by who and for what? This sell off reminded me a lot of the sell off in crude in '08 that started right after the long 4th of July weekend (as this one started after a long weekend) and took crude (for no fundamental reason) from 146/brl to 30 barrel in in 9 months. The Obama administration and the Fed have no moral hangups about manipulating markets that are supportive of their goals. In 08 it was a stronger market and cheaper oil to help the economy. Now, it's getting commodities including PMs down to justify QE3 and to help the economy and oh yeah, Obama’s reelection prospects…can’t have pesky gas at all time highs. Ask yourself, is this market moving in the drection that supports the administrations goals? If not then expect manipulation to push it the other direction like what we're seeing in Silver. Add to that the drama with Comex and you’ve got a market ripe for the kind of BS we’re seeing. There is NO WAY the administration will let the crooked shills at the NY COMEX go down/out of business/fail deliver, etc. They'll do what needs to be done to make sure the market stays within a comfortable range and the company stays solvent. 25% in 4 days...give me a stnkin' brake! This drop resembles a panic more than anything but don’t rule out the possibility of more down – all the way back down and then some if need be and faster than you can imagine. The days ahead will tell but keep in mind, if there are bigger forces that have a vested interest in keeping PMs like silver at bay they will and they don’t care about support.

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  59. Thanks for the insights and yuks Turd. Not a metals trader, but I picked up a few silver coins online @ $36.01. And a donation to Ron Paul as well. We're having a big night here.

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  60. QE2 is going full tilt till the end of June. Equities will not crash any time soon. I am setting up some nice DOW shorts closer to the end of this month not any sooner. Equities actually held up quite well considering the action.

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  61. SC: I'll take month's that start with Feb Trebek.

    AT: For how much?

    SC: Surprise me you filthy bastard.

    AT: OK, that is completely unnecessary. Month's that start with Feb for $800...This is the only month that starts with Feb...Mr. Connery...

    SC: FEB-TOBER!

    AT: NO! Calista Flockhart...

    CF: Um...Febturday?

    AT: No.

    SC: HA HA HA, She said TURD!

    AT: I hate you.

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  62. If it makes me uncomfortable to pull the trigger on $4k of silver, should I still do it? We have the money but it would be cutting it pretty damn close, to within $1k of our checking buffer zone. However we are only 100 oz away from our target and this is a very tempting prices...

    What say you?

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  63. smarsack61, please see my previous comment on this posting. Don't struggle with TA. The bottom is in. Over 6 weeks of upward movement were wiped clean in 4 days. Do you really think that "corrections" only move one way? :)

    Anyways, with that said. The EE has set this orchestra on the perfect path to a dramatic ending. The S&P is about to tank hard next week and the rest of the equities market along with it. As I said above. I bet _BIG_ that the silver squeeze is on and I'm taking physical delivery.

    When I make these calls I don't do it lightly. Please refer to my posting history and look at the market movements when I post. Regards, B

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  64. i think i'm waiting for a bit of RCI at 20 confirmation.... is anyone going in now ?

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  65. Preliminary OI numbers coming out in about 1 hour. Might be some indicator if this 34,6 has been the bottom. I sincerely believe not though. Short snapback rallye is expected, but I think it'll go down further next week on the last margin hike, and shake the last leaves off the tree. I don't expect it to go up as fast as it went down. If I got this wrong, maybe I'm just not a very good trader ;).

    However, if we get 10k lower OI as of close yesterday, then I too would conclude that this might have been it.

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  66. H, I say this: If you can buy and get by. Do so. If you aren't sure of the next paycheck, don't you dare consider it. I recommend 6-months to one year in case or close-to-cash accounts. No more than 1-year!!!!


    As for the comment about "QE2 is going full tilt till the end of June. Equities will not crash any time soon." Sorry bud, you're dead wrong. Equities will crash sooner than you think. I first hand witnessed Federal Reserve staff making their rounds at major news agencies trying to convince the staff that the economy was on the recovery. I've never seen such behavior before and I hope to never see it again. With that said, I've made some pretty big bets that not only silver is hitting a bottom, but also the equities market is tanking soon. This plays perfectly into what I've been recommending for the last few months: Buy puts in the equity indexes and go long silver. Its not complex. Just do it and wait things out. AND NEVER BY NEAR-MONTH CONTRACTS!

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  67. I'm waiting for Turd's confirmation, or whoever posts that RSI thing, or at least someone who can explain to me why they are calling this the bottom, in terms I can understand (no offense B)

    Been a real rollercoaster of a weeek.

    Still sleeping on the couch tonight. If I spend our "reserve" metals money I may be sleeping in the garage instead...

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  68. Like your parabola analysis TF and your possible bottom call.

    If my 2 earlier calls today for PM trading bottoms at 1474/36 prove correct, I want a Hat, or at least a Hat Tip.

    But today's 2 year uptrend breaks in equity indices and selected issues (see BRKA down 2.4% breaking 8 month horizontal support, and XTC breaking 29 month uptrend support, as examples) make a PM trading bottom hard to envision during an ongoing equity collapse, so with deteriorating economic numbers tomorrow and later, I'll go with PM targets of 1425/32.

    Jesse has my vote that we are witnessing desparate but futile federal measures to head off defeat of the U.S.$. in an imminent world currency war, the history of which I fully expect to be written as usual by victors, PMs Au and Ag.

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  69. Black Hawk...

    Yes on Inside Job (loved it) and Soros.

    Combine with what he said, and then combine that ANYONE can jump into the wave, with massive leverage, and the velocity/sloshing are like never before in history... not even possible 5-10 years ago.

    I don't know how many times I've said this in the last two years, but never in the context of TRADING, rather only with economic/geopolitcal decisions, but it CERTAINLY applies to trading...

    "We are no more evolved than we were 3-5,000 years ago... we just have the ability to make mistakes MUCH faster and with far greater consequences."

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  70. Thanks B, but I do not share your sentiment.

    That is what makes us individuals. I made a bundle in DXD back when, and the movements in that stock are not vindictive of a rush to short. And please refrain from saying one is wrong if it does not fit your personal view, were all on the same team here and opinions differ.

    TBTF did not pump the market this far to collapse it. They are protecting this market as well as the long bond.

    Be well

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  71. US$ is going back up; not a good sign

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  72. Carry over from the last thread.

    This pullback was not healthy, it was criminal, costing untold numbers of people to lose massive amounts of money...To call it other than a crime is in itself a crime. I get very angry every time someone calls this kind of action healthy or normal.

    It depends on your position I guess. For someone interested in increasing their physical stash, this is x-mas come early. For someone fully loaded on AGQ and no hedge in place, its financial armageddon.

    So from where I am standing I have to respectfully disagree. Firstly, if it would be criminal, the people who lost big time the past week would be calling the cops. The ol saying applies, where there is no judge, there is no crime. Don't get angry at sharks when they snatch a surfer, we are in their world and they do what they are bound to do. The Comex did what a comex does. If you believed the regulators would finally step in and do their job, you better get your believer fixed.

    Secondly, if silver bottoms out at $34, a massive $15 drop from its high at $49, it only puts us back to where we were beginning of March. After it risen 40% in 7 weeks it has now dropped 30%. We gotta put things in perspective. Maybe healthy is the wrong word, but a short term correction was always in the cards and I'd rather get it over and done with.

    Next time we get into the $40's, the likelihood of a similar attack succeeding will be far less. Been there, done that. The Comex has gone all out here, revealing its arsenal. The weak hands will have left and the strong hands will be better prepared.

    We can't argue with fundamentals. The price of crude is dropping below $100, and yet its getting scarcer by the day. Will it get to $150 sometime in the not too distant future? You bet. Same with Silver. The moment more and more people look at this blatant takedown from a less emotional angle, and see it as the buying opportunity for physical it really is, is the moment when Bugs Bunny puts a cork in Elmar Fudd's rifle.

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  73. And what I mean by This Market Equities.

    Crash?...Hardly...A mere flesh wound.

    http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

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  74. H-

    I'm with ya, I just pulled the trigger on some pool silver... yeah, yeah, I know what folks say about it, but I don't think western civilization is going to implode before I can get my $ or physical out...I really look at it as a high-interest savings account.... OK, sometimes the interest goes negative, but I can wait for it....

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  75. "whoever posts that RSI thing"

    Pailin set his alarm for 3am eastern time ... we need him

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  76. Shill... I'm not disagreeing with you, but...

    ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

    TBTF, with the full backing of the Fed, CREATE bubbles, then POP them. They make money on both sides, and if for some reason it goes wrong, well, then, "TBTF!!!!!"

    Oversimplification for sure, but c'mon, we just witnessed them do this to us 2 years ago.

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  77. As much money as we have all made on silver, I'd still advise caution. There is constant talk about 16:1 Gold:Silver ratio, but that has not been normal for a long time (Not since the industrial revolution).

    In fact, the Latin Monetary Union, an attempt to standardize european currencies in the late 1800s basically collapsed because they had a peg of 15.5oz silver to gold. Everyone and their uncle was trading in silver for gold.

    A more normal ratio over the last 30 years has been about 50:1 to 60:1, with wild swings on either side:

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/Trendsman/may032011.html

    In fact, if you went long gold and shorted silver anytime since Turd mentioned Gold would take the lead, you would have made a pile of money, even while prices were collapsing!

    There may still be meat on this trade. The GSR is in the low 40s right now.

    Not a bad idea if you are still shy about overall prices falling. Gold should still go up more than silver when they rise, and should fall less than silver when they fall.

    I would still favor buying Gold rather than silver at this point for those of you who aren't waiting for a technical bottom.

    If the GSR gets towards 30 again, I think this Long Gold/Short silver trade is a no brainer.

    DYODD

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  79. B, that's an interesting post. My question is, SI has been pretty closely correlated with the equities market for a long time, presumably because it's an industrial metal. If the markets crash sometime soon, SI will have to decouple from the market and do the opposite of what it's been doing. Perhaps GC becomes the bigger winner in a crash than SI?

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  80. TF, what the fuck are you talking about? You're just a follower/victim like everyone else. Stop pretending.

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  81. Soon PM dealers will consult eBay for the true "spot" price rather than Kitco.

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  82. Shill..

    PS I enjoy your posts and largely agree with you. I'm not just jumping on you this time.

    PPS I full well know that the following just happened over the last 8 or so months in terms of my paper investments:

    1) I had a 150% run up that has now been pushed down to ONLY a 130%.

    2) TBTF/TPTB had a 150% (or more run up) and have probably doubled that again this week on the way back.

    Do I feel used and do I hate it? You bet! Am I still happy with my gain? You bet! (but it took two days to get over the drop!).

    Hopefully someday the rules will get truly reset on the system. For now I understan that we are not much more than "useful idiots" for the TBTF/TPTB, but that doesn't mean we can't still make money off of it... we are WAYYYY ahead of at least 95% of the population here...

    At this point, EVERYONE in the world should be able to see what is surely going to happen to equities soon... yet no one seems to be talking about it outside of forums like this.

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  83. My 5 min silver looks like it is starting to roll over again. POSX going up too. Perhaps we're not out of the woods yet. I'm still leary of an outside chance we are being set up for a bull trap.

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  84. Fort, it will crash I am not saying it will not, just not yet. 2 months from now I may change my tune. I'll play my position on Japans Q release in June which I suspect will be trash, then we should see some serious selling. I am not a mad max type guy, been hearing that shit since 01, and look I am still here and I can still buy food in my local grocer. Been doing this a long time men, I have seen and heard it all. Yes this is the end game for the dollar, but life will still exist.

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  85. I enjoy your posts as well Fort.

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  86. Evil please keep us informed. we can all make up our own minds regarding your info

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  87. "Eric#1 said...
    I emailed Mrs. Eric#1 at work and told her about the carnage. Her only response was:

    "We are in it for the long haul, so don't sweat the day to days."

    Is she awesome or what? She really IS #1!! I think I'll keep her. :D"

    You're a lucky guy.

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  88. Turd , sound analysis,

    Applications for jobless benefits jumped by 43,000 to 474,000 in the week ended April 30, the most since August, Labor Department figures showed today.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-05/jobless-claims-in-u-s-unexpectedly-jump-due-to-special-factors.html

    Harvy Organ:

    I find this absolutely astonishing: a loss of another 3.445 million oz of silver.
    In two days we have lost: 23.585 million oz. This silver went somewhere but where?
    And yet the SLV is short of inventory in silver versus shares outstanding somewhere in the neighbourhood of 26 million oz. Where is the SEC on this?

    http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

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  89. Good evenining to you all, time to hit the sheets.

    Hold them back folks and lets have a profitable FUBMFriday.

    Be well

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  90. Yeah, looks like Down Periscope, after scouting the waters around 35.50 we're going under...

    Sigh :(

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  91. afrum!

    would be nice to have some FRYday action again. Can you arrange it? :)

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  92. http://www.grandich.com

    From The Desk of Peter Grandich
    Please remember the daily email only has the last 5 postings of mine. Some days (like today) there were more than 5 new posts since the last email so make sure you read the actual blog as well.
    Below is an alert sent out by the good folks at GATA:
    Le Metropole Members,

    Having called plunge, Grandich and Davies jump back in; Sinclair says: Relax!

    Submitted by cpowell on 05:32PM ET Thursday, May 5, 2011. Section: Daily Dispatches 8:29a ET Thursday, May 5, 2011

    Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

    GATA is not in the trading business or an investment adviser, but when our friends in those lines of work talk about the precious metals, we know that our other friends like to listen — especially when our friends with great trading records talk.

    At 11:33a ET today Peter Grandich of the Grandich Letter, who had called the plunge in the precious metals exactly, announced that he had returned to being fully invested in them:

    http://www.grandich.com/2011/05/time-to-go-back-in-gold-1481-silver-35-7…

    Tonight in an interview with King World News, Hinde Capital CEO Ben Davies, who had also called the plunge exactly, reported that his firm had covered its hedges and was getting back into silver too. “This is the start of a great opportunity to accumulate silver,” Davies said. “All the key fundamental issues in the world have not gone away, nor those specific to silver, such as the fact that it is under-owned and short of supply in the medium-term.” An excerpt from that interview can be found at the King World News blog here:

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/5_Ben_Davies_-_We_Are_Now_Buyers_of_Physical_Silver.html

    And at 2:22p ET today the dean of gold traders, mining entrepreneur Jim Sinclair of JSMineSet.com, wrote that the plunge is only proof that gold will make a major move upward in June. Sinclair’s advice to the friends of gold and silver was simply, “Relax”:

    http://jsmineset.com/2011/05/05/the-foundation-for-gold-at-5000/

    Grandich, Davies, and Sinclair will be among the speakers at GATA’s Gold Rush 2011 conference in London in August. You can learn about the conference and register for it at its Internet site here:

    http://www.gatagoldrush.com/

    CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer

    Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

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  93. Fortin-

    I totally agree about equities. I think they WILL actually end QE2 temporarily. This will cause a massive asset bubble implosion. This has been my opinion since silver and then gold double topped recently.

    For all of our complaints about EE, these are two of the, strictly speaking, most useless commodities (esp gold).

    They should be the first to go in a crash, followed by other commodities and then oil.

    Then equities.

    The Fed and their cronies forced unwinds on huge hedge fund trades this week, causing the dollar to surge and commodities to fall.

    I expect that this will soon spread to equities, which are close to ALL TIME HIGH leveraged up.

    The whole thing is a house of cards.

    I'd buy puts, but I am lacking some confidence that the govt would bail out Buffett again (who writes a lot of put options) if the market collapses.

    Almost more comfortable with cash (!).

    Maybe long gold, short equities? I'd like a trade that isn't "all in". If anyone has ideas, I'm open to them.

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  94. Leonard,
    don't give it up too quickly. Big brother gold is looking strong

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  95. Brian, Gold very clearly made its beakout from the $1400 region. I support the theory that gold may outperform SI, but I am not betting on the ratio between the two. What I make my bets on is cold hard USD cash versus physical. For that I'm betting SI... but that is my personal take. I truly believe the ambiguity of SI being both commodity and currency will throw its ratio to gold skyward. Consumption of a resource is a far bigger tax than what any government can ever lobby... get my drift?

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  96. I'm with ya Shill... I agree on all of that.

    And while this part is all "feeling" with no substance, I also know this...

    Just before the tsunami in Japan, I was still talking about things that I didn't think would happen for 18-36 months, but inexplicably started getting very anxious with, "Shit, it feels like it's starting a lot faster than I thought it would" in terms of getting things in place other than just holding an assload of physical. That anxiety grew with the tsunami not because of the tsunami, but because I thought it was going to push a lot of people into a market I didn't want them in yet in terms of driving up prices (see the "Big Berkey" run). In spite of the pullbacck in silver, I feel more settled now for a couple of different reasons.

    I don't think it will be "The Road" or "Mad Max" either, but I don't think it will be 2008-9 (a blip) or even how Detroit was from 1979-82 when I was a kid (and it was BAD)...

    I think that even if we got a true fiscal conservative that could wave a magic wand tomorrow, we are going to have to experience some fairly significant economic pain even in the BEST case scenario.

    I see it as somewhere between Detroit 1979-1982 and the Great Depression, but it is not 1929 anymore, men don't wear hats and jackets anymore, we have a giant underclass that we didn't have then, and I don't think people will wait patiently in line for things like they did in the 1930's and they will think it's beneath them to do "make work" programs for assistance.

    Again, probably not "The Road," but not just "lost decade Japan" either.

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  97. "Turd Ferguson said...
    Markus: Please understand, I'm not saying its over, either.
    In fact, IF a rally can take us back toward 40, I'll gladly offload the 2 July 45s I bought yesterday because I would expect a dip back toward double or H&S bottom territory before 5/20."


    Of course bro. I know you're smart. I was rather addressing the slowly developing "this could have been it, maybe we're off again yeehhaaaw" crowd out there. No use to let either fear or euphoria get the better of us at this point, if ever.

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  98. Indeed lost decade for sure Fort. Be well my friend and enjoy your evening/morning, talk to you kind folks in the morning thread.

    Be well

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  99. B,

    Thanks for the input, I'll invest a bit of time looking at your track record. Regardless of your accuracy, I need to be able to row my own boat if you, TF, Norcini and others are spirited away by flying monkeys. DYODD as the saying goes.

    Cheers,
    S

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  100. @S, B and H

    Shall I change my tag to "L"? I seems to be the 'in' thing to do these days...

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  101. Blorf... I'm with ya.

    My only regret last week was not swapping about 50% of my physical silver for gold when the GSR got to 31:1. I actually inquired about it with a local dealer and APMEX, but didn't pull the trigger. Lesson learned. My point there is that I wish I'd been able to get some more gold that way last week.

    I agree with your gold/short equities. That said, I'll probably let the gold aspect of that just be my physical. As for the equities, I'm going to stay out of leverage other than the straight up ETF leverage in things like TWM.

    I agree with the earlier poster who said you could do better with puts than with TWM, but I don't have the time or skill to do that effectively, so I'll probably just play ETF's like TWM the same way I've played AGQ, DGP and, this week anyway, ZSL.

    That's my weak ass plan, but it worked well enough for me on the silver run up and I learned plenty with only a couple of "how in the hell did that happen!" moments.

    In my opinion, while the current markets are likely the "markets of a lifetime" for options traders, that translates to "it's probalby the worst market EVER to LEARN options in."

    One thing that EVERYONE has said... CRAZY VOLATILITY FROM HERE FORWARD!

    Not a good time to learn options! ... unless maybe you can literally sit side-by-side with a master.

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  102. if equities tank and eat shit and die that would just be another gift to buy on the cheap !! but would that crash make lots of monies run back to the usd and drive it up 15%, making silver even more cheaper and attractive to btfd? hate to say i hope so, but i only buy the physical, and anything that gives me a chance to dollar cost average out of frn into pm is a blessing!!!
    roll em dont hold em, drop in , never look back, ride rainbows, defy authority! its times like these when those who have balls of steel do not veer course. hang tough, laugh later!

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  103. evil - for what its worth, i seek out your posts

    Bill DU

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  104. I think there is a lot more silver floating around out there than people realize.

    I know that's an unpopular opinion.

    If you are investing for the long term, gold is a no brainer. Look at the chart over the last 10 years. Straight line, steady as she goes.

    Silver is a wild bronco. Up/Down, all over the place. It is only suitable for short term trades.

    Trade short term, accumulate long term.

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  105. So is tanking the equities next week the intent, or merely a side-effect of tanking the commodities this week?

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  106. Apmex only has 2256 random year SAEs on hand right now. Not sure how fast this is going out the door but that seems a lot less than they usually have.

    Coin shop report from up north. Dropped into a store in a mid-sized mid-west town and asked if they had any silver for sale. They said they were buying everything that came in the door but it was getting sold within minutes. Nothing much on the shelves but some expensive numis.

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  107. Speaking of the DXD, take a look at that weekly chart. That easily could be silver in a year if the government wants it there.

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  108. Leonard...

    I would say "intent." Just ask yourself this from the Fed's position:

    "OK, we've printed an assload of FRNs/added an assload of zeroes to accounts and equity markets have had a huge, artificial run-up as a result... now, what's the EASIEST way to take roughly $1T of "virtual dollars/zeroes" off the books???? Hmmmmm... POP EQUITIES! Then repeat."

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  109. "Consumption of a resource is a far bigger tax than what any government can ever lobby... get my drift? "


    B, thanks. Always enjoy reading your thoughts.

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  110. @ Turd

    Thanks, I saw that actually. Surprised CNN gave him positive press. That republican "debate" was halirious, and unfortunately even more halirious was the "after" polling from the "independent" group of 35 voters. Apparently, everyone was convinced (29 "independently chosen" people who couldn't speak fast enough) about how Herman Cain was this "out of the blue candidate."

    Well, Herman Cain is a Federal Reserve Shill who thinks we shouldn't audit the Federal Reserve. How coincidental... I can't wait to write a post on this, waiting to find the video....

    http://dailypaul.com/153575/herman-cain-2012-hopeful-theres-no-reason-to-audit-the-federal-reserve

    ------

    I hope all this silver liquidation has not caused our trend of happy FRYDAY's to stop. Nothing would beat a nice FRYDAY to set up a rally to consolidate near the low to mid 40s for a while. That 30 year cup and handle is now in reach!

    Scott
    http://thehardrightedge.com

    Ron Paul wants to End the Federal Reserve.
    Enough said...

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  111. Leonard-

    I think it is a side effect. The Feds used their personal hedge funds (JPM, GS, etc) and their control over the rules (via commodity exchange) to beat back the private hedge funds off of commodities. But what they don't realize is that hedge funds also have large equity positions, which they have to liquidate to meet margin calls.

    Hell, tomorrow could be the trigger with the economic numbers.

    Another small push and hedge funds might have to unwind other positions... another dollar surge, but this time equities tank (as they sell their margined equities to get out of dollar shorts they used to buy the equities).

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  112. For the investors among us. Step back and look at the 2yr AU chart. Remember the last 2.5 years are the years of QE4eva. If this is not 2008 redux, $1500 consolidation is just like $950, $1100, $1200, and $1350. If this is a 2008 redux, $1000 to $750 was a 25% drop and $1125 is your redux FRN price. Then take a closer but longer timeline (10yr) look at the chart. A higher low was put in this January, signaling a possible slope change. I'm no wave analyst but...1999-2007 slope 1, Oct2008-Jan2011 slope 2, Jan2011 slope 3?

    Short Buy Signal (trade) = now
    Medium Buy Signal = below $1400
    Long Buy Signal (redux) = < $1200

    U.Fester

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  113. @Evil, stick around. I, like many others, don't really know what to make of you. But...the more precient your track record becomes, the easier it will be to trust you are who you say you are.

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  114. watch history blame silver speculation for the 2011 crash...

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  115. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  116. Hey guys, I want to share a few facts about the number of transactions going through APMEX the last few months: https://docs.google.com/document/d/18U_lxCXwjymKoAVsrV-uEjaXFaP8JyZSpYFxf0ByMg0/edit?hl=en

    Here is just one of the biggest dealers out there... We know that CMI Gold & Silver is saying at least $1 is going into silver for each $1 that goes toward gold. Gold is plentiful, yet silver is not.

    You're free to make your own decisions, but these cold hard facts and the above graph is based on factual data that I collected myself.

    Enjoy

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  117. B - Nice graph. Any way to tell what is for silver and what is for Gold?

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  118. Jack, sorry I can't tell you that. But I do know that APMEX has been selling well over $2M per day of silver alone lately. Lets just say that silver was 100% of all sales, and lets say the average price this week is $40/oz (totally below the real average), then that means they're selling about 10 oz per customer....

    Now thats a BIG BIG BIG "what if" scenario because if APMEX sells anything like CMI Gold & Silver, then they're getting far more silver sales in dollar value than gold. Also... my raw sales #s in the graph don't show what # of sales go towards gold versus silver. Also I dont have the actual # of silver ounces sold... these numbers are only based on what I could determine with 100% certainty.

    Glad you enjoyed it.

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  119. Evil,

    If you're truly trying to help and speak the truth as you experience it, then I commend you:)

    How many more insiders are out there reading this? How many of you can stay silent while your conscience is eating you from within?

    Review Your Choices

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSbR87Erelc

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  120. I expect further downside, the bottom isn't in yet. Pull up a chart going back to last August in Silver, draw a line from where it was then through the dip in late January and there you will see where the real bottom is. Somewhere around $32.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-coming-rout

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  121. Gold's deflection off the 2yr upper channel has brought silver down, and silver is always more volatile. Nothing has changed. The above is rear-view driving, I know. So let's try and see where we are going from here.

    The end of the GKE is perfectly stated! A multigenerational slight-of-hand is coming to an end. Unfortunately, the culprits hold most of the physical above ground (and below) and we cannot change this fact. But we can change our FRNs for physical today! When the FRN defaults, and it will default, TPTB will step in with their liquid physical assets to 'save the day'.
    The details of the 'save the day' vehicle does not matter. It does not matter! Amero, SDR, Swiss Franc, whatever. It will start Au backed, Au + Ag backed, basket of commodities backed, whatever.
    The point is...TPTB want to transfer as many paper IOUs (or e- equivalent) to you, me, your neighbor and your neighbor's dog as they can. The IOUs will default! Again, the details do not matter, default 0.70 on the $ or 1.00 on the $, the result is the same...you were cheated. So when you are in the paper spec market, remember this. This is a game of musical chairs and the last people standing are holding a bag of shit.

    Get physical while you still can, screw the paper price,
    U.Fester

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  122. "good night and good luck" - oh no, TF is really Keith Olbermann! lol. terrible joke, sorry. I need a little humor right now.

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  123. Dammit, I think another post went to blogspot limbo...

    Lots of interesting silver articles on ZH, in case anyone hasn't checked yet.

    FWIW, I actually did several weeks ago what Evil (and to a certain extent B) suggested. I went back today to allocate all of my 401k to cash (not that money market accounts are safe either...).
    Having a stash of linen 'money' is not a bad idea in general -- WHEN something happens, it's likely to begin with a bank holiday. Possibly preceded by a Sunday night primetime address...

    From Mike Krieger's piece on ZH:
    "One of the things I have been waiting to see was when people in the “establishment” start to speak out more and refuse to cooperate with the more psychopathic elements with the government, Wall Street and the military/industrial complex. I am now starting to see increased signs of this. This is still under the radar but it is happening and accelerating. Sides are being taken. This is going to be very interesting to watch. Just remember, the system is coming down and there is nothing they can do to stop it. They can only separate you from your real money (gold and silver) before it becomes clear to all. The action this week is a last ditch attempt. The game is already over."

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  124. @ Evil

    Ooops, I think I messed up, and made a general observation about one of your comments without knowing any of your other comments. My ignorance and rant against you was mis-informed. I am very sorry for suggesting otherwise. Your information seems honest, I am sorry I so harshly misjudged. I have been reading so much stuff the last few days I may have snapped a bit. I sincerely apologize, please continue to post.

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  125. The puppeteers always win since they pull the strings.

    http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/04/24/pyramid-of-capital-system-how-true-this-is-2/

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  126. Fester-

    That is shabby advice. You should get as much physical gold for the cheapest price possible. Silver is for trading, period.

    Going all in on anything sounds like a poor plan.

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  127. After a softball game last night, the boys like to payback our sponsor (local bar) as we swigged a few beers and talked sports. No idea how the conversation picked up, but somehow we got talking about taxes. Out of 10 at the table, only myself and a friend who is a tax professional, knew that unemployment was 99 weeks compensation. Everybody gasped (literally). I threw out the 44M food stamp record number and eyes widened. Then they started talking sports again but I could tell something was churning in their brains, almost if "why am I working?"

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  128. On 20 May,

    We have heliocentric cycles of Mars/Jupiter conjunction and Venus/Uranus conjunction in the sign of Aries and Ceres/Chrion conjunction in Pisces.

    This is going to be big day....where cycle influence is concerned.

    I sure hope that beginning next week, it will bring out the best of the Aries nature of the metals and cause a melt up, especially in the days that run up to this triple heliocentric conjunction events.

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  129. @Pablo
    If your garage gets too uncomfortable, we have a spare room available in the Northwest. You can have room and board for 1oz per week.
    I meant to comment on your earlier posts...totally with you! Although I think I have thru $26 before I make my acquaintance with the sofa :)

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  130. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Religious-groups-question-apf-2130248931.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

    a priest, a nun, a jew, and a thief walk into a boardroom...

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  131. ZH does have good silver articles, too bad no one listens to the best ones. Chris Marteson warned 2 months ago about what could happen in May to silver - nobody listened. Too many PM bulls out there thinking the end game was at hand. Apparently not.

    Best thing about this crash was you could still get out Monday relatively unscathed all things considered, even after the Sunday night shakeout.

    Now you have to look when to get back in. AGQ got whacked 50% in 4 days. Time to buy? Not quite yet, but after that it will be very very profitable I think.

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  132. Thank you for everything you do Turd!!
    Happy Cinco de Mayo day!!

    Bring on $50 silver once again

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  133. From August to April silver ran up about 30 bucks and EE has had an average net short position of 200M ozs @CRIMEX alone. Imagine how much loss was that. If there's really plenty silver around then would you sit there getting pushed around like that? There's not much silver available as some people guessed.

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  134. Folks,
    I need your truthful opinion: Should I stay or should I quit?
    Stay and wait/hope for reversal of this crazy fall or minimize my future potential (and seems to be very potential) losses by leaving now? No panic yet, though getting closer now.

    I have mostly CEF.A, PHS.U and some miners like SSO, HUZ. Account is 30% down now, just equivalent of my yearly enumeration. I did get into this game late enough to be hit so hard. I'm sure that can survive for another 6 month at least without needing these money. The issue though is that that I have no more savings left, all there. My bad, though it is what it is, I was trying to escape from falling dollar to something that holds value a bit better..

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  135. @ Chuck

    Don't quit unless it's getting hard on your daily life, e.g. making you unable to pay bills. I see it recovers no later than September.

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  136. nfl -- Turd said much the same re: silver price & QE2 end. BUT QE2 was scheduled to run through June, even according to Chris Martenson. POMO continues apace:
    http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

    This is NOT related to QE2 end.

    B has an interesting theory, y'all should check out the graph he posted on sales order volumes at APMEX

    "Here is a theory for ya: What if the CFTC told the CME that “we’re going to institute position limits on this date: XXXX” … Don’t you think the CME would want to run any long players out before that happened? You know, give the naked shorts a chance to run for the exits... yes -- i think so."

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  137. @lonerangersilver

    Sometimes the puppeteers overestimate their power. The French peasants had a way of separating the puppeteers heads from their bodies.

    We have a HUGE "peasant class" in America today who have more than pitchforks. The puppeteers DON"T always win. These people are being sustained by the excessive spending. When that ends....well....

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  138. Thank you, Rui.
    I can hang in for a while. I realized now that my balls are from softer metal and it is painfully hard to see hard earned money disappear so fast and without any fun. Even my shitty job, cranky wife and gloomy future does not bother me as bad as this.

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  139. Silver clearly oversold. But I'll wait.

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  140. @Chuck

    They say trend is your friend for a reason. Long term bull market always bails your under water positions out no matter how wrong the entry is, and we are no where near the end of this bull run so hang in there tough. If there's one thing to be learned from this sell off is to stay away from margin or leverages. Not even bull market can bail those things out.

    My SVM down almost 30+% from the peak, yet it ain't bother me much. I tend to think it's like some big shots trying to enter the market and deciding to blow a few small fishes outta water first so that they can enter at a desired position.

    Hang in there tough.

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  141. Wife for sale. Will trade for strange metals. Kookaburras and Pandas considered. No market bottom entry. Apparently not negotiable.

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  142. I'm out of here. I'm going hunting for 3 days.

    Just me, my rifle, and nature.

    Peace and quiet and space. And hopefully soon a freezer full of pork.

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  143. Ok I was taking a shower about to go to sleep and I think I finally get it now.

    Ok so JP Morgue has been shorting silver HUGE
    They have been trapped by the silver Bull
    They are hermorging money
    A scheme was hatched probably in april:
    pump silver up quick
    have BoS sell on sunday/holiday, china closed
    CME hikes margins so no buyers can buy
    As silver drives off the cliff
    JP Morgue exists out of short positions
    When they are clear(or clear enough)
    They buy long positions that no one wants
    They then call mexico, China, Russia and BoS to go all in.
    BoS go all in, SLV skyrockets.. JP Morgan wins


    do i get it?

    ReplyDelete
  144. "Titus Andronicus said...
    I'm out of here. I'm going hunting for 3 days.

    Just me, my rifle, and nature."

    Now do the same at the next Bilderberg conference.

    Thanks.

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  145. "There must be some kind of way out of here,"
    Said the joker to the thief,
    "There's too much confusion,
    I can't get no relief.
    Businessman they drink my wine,
    Plowman dig my earth
    None will level on the line, nobody offered his word, hey"

    "No reason to get excited,"
    The thief, he kindly spoke
    "There are many here among us
    Who feel that life is but a joke
    But you and I, we've been through that
    And this is not our fate
    So let us not talk falsely now, the hour is getting late"

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  146. The government (working in cahoots with the Morgue) is so stupid. They are short on tax receipts, but crash the gold and silver market. If they want to get more money to deal with bringing down the debt, they should just let silver and gold roll on, and then collect big time on capital gains. But no, everything must be controlled and managed. No free markets, like during the heyday of the Soviet Union and communist China. How'd that work for them???

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  147. Turd if you get a chance can you share some opinions on the similarities between this correction and the periods of Apr/May in 04,06, and 08. Following the sequence the large correction should have happened in 2010, but with QE 1 and 2 it may have stretched the cycle out.

    If the correction is a continuation of the long term trend, we may not be seeing $50 till December.

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  148. Looks like we will see 34 again and UP UP UP.

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  149. @Silverman: you waiting for the MACD crossover on the Daily or the 4H ?

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  150. @silverman

    you think we are going to see 34 again?

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  151. 8 hours slow stochastic close to crossing.

    http://i55.tinypic.com/xqkkkm.gif

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  152. Waiting for daily slow stochastic. Both MACD and slow stochastic would be even great. I use 8 hours to time the entry.

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  153. Help me out being new to this. Isnt the Slow stock better for ranges and the MACD better for trends? And the MACD's look horrible.

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  154. Thanks Silverman. I am using the 4H and Daily SS and MACD crossovers to approximate an entry myself.

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  155. @Evil: please keep posting.

    What you have posted so far corroborates my vague belly feeling (I'm not a professional in the financial industry - my day job is in a completely different field). I don't know if the crash is coming next week or in a couple of months, but I am expecting a crash at some time.

    Besides, I value varied view points.

    If you really are taking personal risk to post your info, thanks!! I respect that.

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  156. @kevin

    On daily chart there's enough room for downside. In this chart daily MACD and SS crossing. Which is confirmation of trend when silver hit 26.

    http://i56.tinypic.com/xml3t0.jpg

    I'd say wait for next week. Tonight and Monday morning might be violent. Still room left for 30-33 silver. It's just my opinion.

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  157. @kevin

    Exactly. Daily MACD just went under 0 level. Which is theoretically down trend just starting. That's why I said enough room for downside.

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  158. Based on my own chart analysis, I have to concur with Silverman - further adding that TUE through to THU offer re-entry opportunities. Unless of course if BoS decides that the fires are all put out and the shorts have truly exhausted themselves - this will cause a very sharp spike up again - followed potentially by another quick turn down which will finally signal the end of the correction.

    But also to remember, Technical Analysis in such markets have failed before and in Silver especially.

    Still it does not hurt to be extra cautious.

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  159. i dunno, i'm not convinced yet. during the 2008 crash, silver was down over 50%; that'd take us to the low 20s this time. i wouldn't be surprised to see us go below $30 this time, though i'll be a buyer beneath that level.

    1 month t bill rates hit 0 again yesterday. i'm wondering if we're starting to see round 2 of the monetary crisis...last time silver/gold crashed with everything else for a few weeks (margin calls), then recovered and carried on. negative interest rates on US t bills make that scenario likelier in my mind.

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  160. The central bank is an institution of the most deadly hostility existing against the Principles and form of our Constitution. I am an Enemy to all banks discounting bills or notes for anything but Coin [gold and silver coins]. If the American People allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the People of all their Property until their Children will wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered.

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/schoon/may052011.html

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  161. Question: If a sharp drop in the Dow and S&P does happen, will mining shares drop as well?

    I would think so, but am highly interest in your opinions.

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  162. I should stop calling the bottoms. I'm feeling stupid :)

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  163. geronimoalamo said...
    "
    None will level on the line, nobody offered his word, hey"

    That line is actually "None of them along the line, know what any of it is worth"

    sign me, nitpicky musician

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  164. Prelim OI shows +10k contracts for silver. Probably will be corrected again in the final report. Because that kind of action wouldn't make the least bit of sense.

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  165. WTI Crude has plunged now to below $96 pb

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  166. Woke up in the middle of the night (well, EST night), and had to check the action.... my pessimistic self said "it's probably dropped like a rock".... nice to see it bounced and it going up again.

    Since IMHO the whole purpose of crashing silver was to push crude prices down (short term, but then again everything these days is done for short term effect), it looks like it worked, and they may let up on silver for a few days while you-know-who does a "victory over the evil speculators" speech or two.... you know it's going to happen.

    Back to sleep for this tired boy...

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  167. I agree with you for the most part, but something like..

    2) Silver down over 25% in 4 days.

    could have easily been "Silver down over 15% in X days" and that statement would still have had the same effect. Just because it's lost a quarter of its value in less than a week doesn't mean it's done dropping. (Personally though, 36 looks like good mid-term support to me).

    I find it interesting that those who make a quick profit shorting silver are called out as being "part of the system" and "just gaining worthless fiat". I'm much more comfortable now that I sold all of my physical in the mid 40's, shorted it down to 38, and while I'm not ready to buy back yet I know that when the times comes I'll have MORE money to put back in physical. Cashing in on a capitulation doesn't mean you're Blythe's #1 fan.

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  168. I'm probably from the lower middle class. Can't afford 100oz at one shot. Am also a newbie in PMs.

    I'm more than pleased to see this big dip in silver pricing. (i can buy more with my little amount of money!)

    Thanks Turd! Your charts and analysis taught me alot. Thank you for sharing and having the heart to help more people!

    The Path of A Bull Market - here's a good article that I thought is worth sharing:
    http://wealthcycles.com/blog/2011/05/05/why-silver-fell-and-why-it-doesnt-matter

    Cheers!

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  169. "I'm much more comfortable now that I sold all of my physical in the mid 40's, shorted it down to 38, and while I'm not ready to buy back yet I know that when the times comes I'll have MORE money to put back in physical. Cashing in on a capitulation doesn't mean you're Blythe's #1 fan."

    No. It just means you sold your physical and are an idiot.

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  170. @Adam: I can understand the shorting paper part...but why oh why would you sell your physical!?

    Unless you needed to raise capital immediately for some other endeavour.

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  171. Good morning all..
    Id love to start a conversation about life after "all in pm's". After a bunch of gigantic and epic moves up to come there will surely be a time to sell off much of the stack.
    What will you all be doing with these huge piles of worthless FRN's? Im thinking rental propertys or some sort of 'green industry' venture.
    What are your ideas for life after "All In'?

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  172. Don't you just hate it when Carl is on assignment?

    :)

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  173. Could someone also enlightening me on what is a possible exit strategy?

    I read that there might be a deflation follow by a hyperinflation. What would be a proper timing to sell off these PMs? After the hyperinflation?

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  174. Hi fredco,
    Pm's for life buddy. Until a currency is backed by gold, physical is still king in my eyes. Although I'm not Asian, I'd like to leave a stack for my kids after I die.

    I was going to close out my position on ZSL on Thursday but there is still a lot of downward pressure on silver. Here is how I think it may play out today:

    http://i55.tinypic.com/54mir.gif

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  175. 'Mornin' all... I'm super punchy this am due to pulling an all-nighter working on my Discrete Math final project. Fun stuff... :/

    @Silverous - Some of us won't sell physical, ever. It's there to barter with should we need it.

    When the GSR gets to around 1:16 gold vs silver won't matter, if anything I'd "color up" then, not cash out.

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  176. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  177. Just nibbled a little.. over the last 12 hours 15% of my ammo on average at 35,1$. Next few % I'll deploy at 33,5$, or around the current levels IF they hold for a few days.

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  178. Dear golden hamster, thank you very much for dropping in to tell us were all fucked. I checked out your blog and see your favorite film is dancing with wolves and one of your favorite sites is global astrology. I looked no further.

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  179. Ginger

    Hey, I hear ya. Couldn't get on the blog at all last night as my daughter had the computer to write a paper for school. So, no, I was not out opening a vein or anything.

    Had to sell down to the sleeping point yesterday. Is that the bottom? Let's hope so since I'm still net long. I wasn't sweating it at all Mon-Wed. Wasn't worried at all as long as it seemed to be a silver story. But yesterday when I saw all commodities getting dumped, then I figured there might be something else going on. Something that could take all summer to work out, and I had to make some changes.

    Summary of all investible assets right now is:
    20% physical gold
    10% physical silver
    10% favorite core oilsands stocks
    10% favorite core miner stocks
    50% cash & equivalents


    The whole works, for the year to date is still in the green by maybe 2%. Not anything to crow about, but it could be a lot worse. Nothing like 08-09. Live to fight again another day. That's the bottom line.

    Slept fine last night. :)

    How about you?

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  180. CNBS says Bart Chilton of CFTC on at 7:30 ET

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  181. Breakdown through $34.40 in progress.

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  182. Nice even more bargains coming.

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  183. I'm wondering if Blythe is watching this blog. Any discussion of a shape of a bottom seems to have infuriated her once again. I think 30 is a target and quite possibly before Monday but in a waterfall selloff no one can really sell imo.

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  184. My silver and Gold stash looks exactly the same as it did last week Eric, we hold pretty much the same portfolio.

    Cheers, oh and I slept like a baby.

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  185. Chilton on CNBS now.

    Says he thinks the oil and commodity price declines not caused by fundamentals (no shit).

    He/they are going to "take a look at this"

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  186. @e736e46....

    just tuned in, missed the beginning. Did they hint at anything in particular?

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  187. I meant to say, who can say not who can sell? Interesting Freudian slip. best to all

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  188. 33.86. Argh! Plunjo Continuato.

    But the hamster has arrived. A sure sign the bottom is near.

    Great buys, come to papa!

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  189. Looks like Chilton is long KoolAid.

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  190. silver drop seems so fake its not even funny

    oh well, hopefully prices stay low till tuesday

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  191. Let's see if I can jinx this...

    Well, at least gold is still holding in there!

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  192. fire sale agq think ill get a little at 8am

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