Certainty and Other Concerns

I've read, with more than a passing interest, most of the 500+ comments to the previous post. I'd like to clarify a few things.

1) I've given you my projection for the next 6+ months. Of course it's not going to be accurate on a tick-by-tick, daily basis. Jeezo-pete, I would hope all of you are smart enough to understand that.

2) My price projections by December are not "purposefully conservative". Do you have any idea how much financial and psychological damage has been done over the past three weeks? It's going to take a lot of money and a lot of new open interest to get silver back up over 40 by late June. A lot. Then, after drifting lower all summer, it will take an almost herculean effort to lift it the 40%+ I project it will take to get silver to run from the low-mid 30s all the way to 50. If anything, my projections are outrageously aggressive but I still have very high confidence that they will be proven to be generally accurate.

3) I do not list potential fundamental impacts because, in doing so, I would be slipping into seer and psychic BS and that's not what this is about. I can confidently give you this "roadmap"because I know that the long-term, structural fundamentals have not and will not change. The short-term fundos such as the discontinuance or restarting of QE. margin hikes, wars etc are all impossible to predict with any accuracy.

4) My certainty and confidence in this are no different than my certainty and confidence in this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/1600-gold-by-june-10-2011.html
Or this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/end-is-near.html
Or this, for that matter:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FGVtJRWP6k
It's what I do and, until the new site is ready, it's one of the primary reasons people visit this site. What kills me is how new posters show up and immediately begin to defame this site and its readers without first doing some background and research. Everything I've ever written is conveniently archived in the right hand column of this page. Anyone wanting to criticize or lampoon should first review some of the discussions we've had here over the past six months. And, as someone said, this is NOT just another Yahoo message board. We are all adults who are responsible for our own decisions. My job is simply to offer my guidance and thoughts while keeping the blog current and interesting. Take it or leave it.

OK, here are your closing charts for today. First, the POSX. It looks more and more like it won't be able to break 76. IF this pig continues to roll over, it will add fortitude to those wanting to establish new positions in the PMs.

Gold is still basing and bottoming in the range between 1485 and 1500. Bad for my June 1500 calls but good for the long-term recovery.

Like gold, silver is still basing and bottoming, too.

Lastly I feel like I must repeat myself as there are so many these days that only seem to skim what I post, if they read it at all. I've not been expecting the bottom and breakout that everyone else seems to be looking for to be fully in place before tomorrow or early next week. Nothing in today's action violates that or anything I typed yesterday. If it all goes to shit and gold falls through the floor while silver drops to 31, then we'll have to get together and re-evaluate. Until then, the metals are simply basing after the correction. Be patient.

Thanks again to everyone for being a part of this blog. I'll try to have more later on this evening. TF