Thursday, May 19, 2011

Certainty and Other Concerns

I've read, with more than a passing interest, most of the 500+ comments to the previous post. I'd like to clarify a few things.

1) I've given you my projection for the next 6+ months. Of course it's not going to be accurate on a tick-by-tick, daily basis. Jeezo-pete, I would hope all of you are smart enough to understand that.

2) My price projections by December are not "purposefully conservative". Do you have any idea how much financial and psychological damage has been done over the past three weeks? It's going to take a lot of money and a lot of new open interest to get silver back up over 40 by late June. A lot. Then, after drifting lower all summer, it will take an almost herculean effort to lift it the 40%+ I project it will take to get silver to run from the low-mid 30s all the way to 50. If anything, my projections are outrageously aggressive but I still have very high confidence that they will be proven to be generally accurate.

3) I do not list potential fundamental impacts because, in doing so, I would be slipping into seer and psychic BS and that's not what this is about. I can confidently give you this "roadmap"because I know that the long-term, structural fundamentals have not and will not change. The short-term fundos such as the discontinuance or restarting of QE. margin hikes, wars etc are all impossible to predict with any accuracy.

4) My certainty and confidence in this are no different than my certainty and confidence in this:
Or this:
Or this, for that matter:
It's what I do and, until the new site is ready, it's one of the primary reasons people visit this site. What kills me is how new posters show up and immediately begin to defame this site and its readers without first doing some background and research. Everything I've ever written is conveniently archived in the right hand column of this page. Anyone wanting to criticize or lampoon should first review some of the discussions we've had here over the past six months. And, as someone said, this is NOT just another Yahoo message board. We are all adults who are responsible for our own decisions. My job is simply to offer my guidance and thoughts while keeping the blog current and interesting. Take it or leave it.

OK, here are your closing charts for today. First, the POSX. It looks more and more like it won't be able to break 76. IF this pig continues to roll over, it will add fortitude to those wanting to establish new positions in the PMs.
Gold is still basing and bottoming in the range between 1485 and 1500. Bad for my June 1500 calls but good for the long-term recovery.
Like gold, silver is still basing and bottoming, too.

Lastly I feel like I must repeat myself as there are so many these days that only seem to skim what I post, if they read it at all. I've not been expecting the bottom and breakout that everyone else seems to be looking for to be fully in place before tomorrow or early next week. Nothing in today's action violates that or anything I typed yesterday. If it all goes to shit and gold falls through the floor while silver drops to 31, then we'll have to get together and re-evaluate. Until then, the metals are simply basing after the correction. Be patient.

Thanks again to everyone for being a part of this blog. I'll try to have more later on this evening. TF


  1. Turd. You. Da. Man.

    Ol' "...paper is paper..." Michael

  2. PMs are getting tired. Sideways kills interest.

  3. Sounds great to me Turd...In it for the long haul.

  4. I have to keep the long term fundamentals in front of me...

  5. MrMiyagi All markets look tired.

    As Turd noted, unless we get some fresh injections of interest, sideways is the call.

    A territory going bust ( cough, Greece ) may move things forward as well.

  6. Traders with plenty of cash can make a lot of money with the PM trade over the next few months playing the BBs MACDs etc....enjoy

  7. Thanks for the effort you put in.

  8. Sophisticated assessments and prudent advice. Muchas gracias!

  9. I know you get great comfort and help from charts but this just has to be said.

    All of the wishful thinking and "hope" that goes with charts in a rigged market is just meaningless.

    The "powers that be" have let the price of Silver rise and fall purely by their power to influence the market with unlimited supply of "paper".

    You think you see a "pattern". You think you see a "support". You think you see a "breakout". These are all just shadows on the wall made by clever manipulators that have the "light".

    People trade in these markets and believe that charts will guide them through treacherous waters but in fact they are "lucky" if they are right and "unlucky" if the guess wrong. The whole charade is "wishful guesswork" wrapped-up in the misguided believe that there is some kind of science and trend.

    Buy physical Silver and sit on it. The scarcity of Silver is the only thing the matters. The rest is just self-delusion.

  10. turd -- thanks for sticking to what you do and not trying to "branch out" into something you are not. each person needs to put all the other pieces together. stay focused on your original intent for blogging.

  11. I stopped reading comments long ago, but I have to comment on the people who have high silver tick-by-tick expectations (I day trade silver futures):

    - Silver doesn't behave AT ALL like it did in Feb/March. In fact right now it's downright schizophrenic. Yesterday it tracked the Euro exactly.. today it's the opposite. I've lost a good sum in this May market. Seems like buyers are like abused dogs fresh out of the pound.. combine this with the blatant manipulation going and you have a choppy market at best.

    - If you're long silver, why so concerned about the daily price? Most main stream analysts are calling higher metal prices in 2012, but they're also calling big swings and corrections until then. The physical holders aren't concerned about this for obvious reasons.

    - Turd has made many good calls and a lot of people have made profits and knew when to take them off the table (me included). READ VERY CLOSELY every word on each post in this blog and heed the warnings - don't only read what you want to read and ignore the bad stuff. Do your own DD on top of it and make your own calls.


  12. Awesome, Turd! Thank you for this blog!

  13. Good stuff. Very rational, Turd. I, too, am in it for the long run.

    Keep going and try to ignore the creatures that defame this blog and your work. You're not doing it for them and should not care about them.
    Always know that you have an incredible amount of followers who highly appreciate you sharing your thoughts, views and analyses.

  14. @ George

    Thank you for your invaluable input. Now that you've offered it, keep buying that physical and putting it where the sun don't shine. If we choose to buy phys and trade some paper too, don't hold that against us.

    @ Turd

    Thank you!

  15. TF, thank you again for your insight. You are a beacon of light in this cruel comedy. IMO, your analysis strikes the perfect balance between TA and FA. They both have their place, the way I see it TA gains validity as the timeframe shrinks, and vice versa for FA. So many prognosticators out there focus too much on one or the other and don't see the whole picture. You, sir, do.

    (I'm gonna go click a bunch of ads now as a pathetic attempt at monetizing my appreciation...)

  16. What a nice day to be out working in the garden, making some green anyway I can!

  17. Turd,

    Don't be discouraged by people nitpicking every detail. For the most part you have been right about so much that there is far too much value in your analysis then to focus on little details.

    You seem frustrated by the commentators lately and I just wanted to comment that your work is HIGHLY appreciated so definitely keep up the hard work.

  18. @Turd

    Thanks for all you do, and the medium you provide.

    There is a lot of pressure put on you. No matter what happens in the future or what has happened in the past, you have already succeeded in so many ways.

    You sir are a person that has given guidance and educated so many people on the ways of the world. Feeling beat up leads to perseverance, and gathering more trolls means you are succeeding in exposing the rigged markets. Look past the clutter of the day-to-day and keep your eye on the bigger prize.

    You are best when you are yourself. Nobody should be expecting you to be 100% right, they should only expect that you are honest and genuine. Quite a hard thing to achieve in these days. Thank you for manifesting these ideals.

  19. Turd, its just that AGQ advice you gave one day. At the very top. You screwed up big time with this for many people.

    Other than that I cant imagine why anyone should be upset or whatever because of what you write.

  20. If I were to criticize one thing, Turd, it is that you care too much about the comments people leave. I think most of us realize what your aims are, and you don't need to worry about the endless bitching.

  21. For those who'd like to think long term and about fundamentals - educate yourself:

  22. Gotta give Mr.F a lot of credit for sticking his neck out at a precarious time like this. QE3 looks to be right around the corner as Japan's economy is in massive free fall. It will be interesting to see what kind of rabbit The Bernank can pull out of his butt.

  23. M.Keiser: JPM is going to afganistan!!!

  24. Personally I hope silver trades side-ways for the rest of the year. Accumulating physical with both hands in this dip, and I'll continue to do so every month. Been long since $7.70, and dollar cost averaging makes even my $39.20 Phils look good.

  25. @srsly - he never said go all in. If you had been following the script at worst you would have taken a little nibble at that time. I did. A lot of us did. But we weren't all in and the damage was limited.

    You can't just decide to start taking TF's advice some random day, and then bitch about it going against you. Grow up.

  26. @Turd
    Again, much appreciated turd!
    I'm fairly new here, but I fully understand. I follow your chartisting, cause you have more experience than me. Charting is only basic guidance in these manipulated markets with shifting fundamentals, but I like to higher my chances if only by 1%

    When trading like a monkey you have 50/50 change to win. The whole point is to higher the win side to like 65% and then you should make money if you let your wins run till the end and cut your losses fast. Only a small percentage of people can trade successfully on a consistent basis, cause it takes discipline.

    If your investing in physical your needs are even easier, either you buy at any price or pick the right dips.

    Either way Turds experience is appreciated, use it at your advantage or go against it if that seems a winning strategy.

  27. Off to play tennis. This action bores me senseless.

    Scott, I managed to buy some more RVM at 3.60 today. Hoping for a bounce, then I'm out of there.

    Turd, you're the man.

  28. Mahalo ScottJ88,
    for your Level Headedness my sentiments exactly.

  29. Done for the day. 2% is a good place to be. Took 10 trades my broker must love me!

    "Flat" with small equal parts AGQ & ZSL that don't look like they will sell so it's overnight for them.

    kiwi thanks for clearing that up. I bet JoeKa appreciates the company.

  30. Thanks T.F.

    Don't listen to any criticism, it is your personal opinion of the market. Surely everyone should decide for themselves whether to accept that opinion, in my view you are pretty accurate!

  31. @niggles

    I am quite aware of what the DXY is and of the definitions of the words fiat, real, nominal, tangible, etc.

    Seems you are saying PM's will go up no matter what happens to stocks, sovereign debt and the euro/USD.

    Do I have that right?

    I wholeheartedly disagree.

    I take it that also means you don't give a damn about the 'fiat' price of PMs, unlike 98% of the others here?

    If so I congratulate you on at least being consistent in your beliefs, unlike some others.

  32. @Turd,

    Know that there are many here who appreciate your thoughts, analysis, and most importantly your honesty. Keep your head up kid:-)

  33. it's quite fascinating that we are on a blog which detests the lack of accountability by the powers-that-be, yet when a poster here blows up due to poor allocation choices, the first thing is to start pointing fingers at others.

    perhaps it's not the politicians that's created this mess, but u.

    @srsly? which district do u represent?

  34. One quick followup:
    I'm currently investing nearly every penny that's been "donated" to me in the construction of the new site. For me to formally put, IN WRITING for all to see, a roadmap for the next six months shows either:
    1) Complete and utter foolishness because if/when I am proven wrong, the new site will crash and burn


    2) I am extremely confident in my "prediction.

    You decide.

  35. kiwiquest in response to big sur said:

    "....all of the major currencies are headed down"

    I'm curious as to how that is possible?

    Down against PM's do you mean?

    Hard to see how EU/USD and USD/EU both decline, wouldn't you say?

  36. Turd, the more you educate others, the more popular this blog becomes. The more popular this blog becomes, the more parasitic entities will be attracted. It's the nature of things, and I would encourage you to NOT be discouraged.

    Many of us understand far too well what is occurring today, and as you aptly point out, the fundamentals have not changed in the SLIGHTEST, nor do they promise to ever do so. THAT is also the nature of things, and THAT is why I've been in PMs for some years now -- as have many others.

    Thank you for all that you do. It's appreciated by many, even if it might seem it's not by many as well.

  37. Turd, thank you for all the effort you put into this superb PM blog. Been following you for 3 weeks and can't believe all that I have learned. You are the man! I will be happy to pay for a subscription to your new blog.

  38. Funny how LinkedIn IPO cannot ( God forbid not an Equity ) be considered a Bubble on its flight To Infinity, and Beyond!

    Yet gold and silver is called the bubble of all bubbles....I snicker..out loud, That stock will be $1 before you know it.

  39. Turd,

    Again, greatly appreciate the map. Given that, I have a question. Am currently long July 40's....any opinion on Jan12 50's?

  40. Just to keep perspective, take a look at last years April 25 to August 25 Silver Daily chart. It hung around 18.40 like a cheap suit.

  41. Same question to fellow option trading dingle-berries:
    Am currently long July 40's....any opinion on Jan12 50's?

  42. >> shows either:

    >> 1) Complete and utter foolishness

    >> OR

    >> 2) I am extremely confident in my "prediction.

    Actually, it could be both

  43. @Shill,

    It's a real shame they don't let us short new IPO's. I wonder why, LOL!

  44. Great interview here folks

    An Interview with Hugo Salinas Price on a Return to a Silver Mexican Peso

  45. Turd, I'll gladly take what's behind curtain number 2.

    Thanks mate

  46. re GDX should be good day for miners tomorrow, all other factors being same, expecting a bounce into low 57's. good volatile options expiration day...

  47. 1) Complete and utter foolishness because if/when I am proven wrong, the new site will crash and burn


    2) I am extremely confident in my "prediction.

    You decide.


    YOU CAN'T WRITE THAT!!!! Now someone's gonna come on here and ask which one do you think they should pick and what do you mean by "You Decide" .... it's going to take 100 posts to get thru it all then G.W. Bush is going to show up and say he's the decider

  48. Keep up the good work and I look forward to you setting up your new site. nyquil762

  49. silver could actually finish in the green today and remember the head wise sage here said look for Friday and at latest early next week (ie Tuesday ish) for some move up.

    I use call spreads as it lessens my risk but also gives me good upside potential.

    But I also look forward to not only reading "The Turd" but also many of the responses and discussions cause in the aggregate this board is PDG.

    Even the trolls or whatever they are called--serve to remind me not to get too cocky

    in the meantime the PM's seem to be enjoying a nice last hour, dollar stinking up the place, Congress not working on the financial crisis, USPS sitting behind Fannie and Freddie in preference, Fed employees may be screwed with their pensions (just like the underfunding of state pensions) so tell me where we should be optimistic about the economic situation? Housing? Autos? Jobs?

    What alternatives for investing other than parking cash for a short time? A little Linkein?

  50. Don't sweat it Turd...Looking forward to the new site!

    Did anybody listen to Schiff interview Nicol Foss today, the old deflation/inflation debate...I used to read Automatic Earth quite a bit, but haven't in quite a while...Just curious, she makes some valid points, but I just don't buy it...any opinions?

  51. Thanks for your posts. Sometimes people will agree and sometimes they will not. It's what makes a market. You put it all out there and kudos to you for that. We appreciate it and that is why keep returning.

  52. I, too, worry that TA tools aren't as useful as they used to be in what appears to be a highly manipulated market but what the heck else do we have?
    The fundamentals have not changed and are not going to change.
    I do very much appreciate TF's (and the posters here) efforts to bring some clarity to the situation as my situation-IRA- wants trading to enable physical buying.
    Along the way I learn patience and diligence.

  53. One more and then I must take flight, errands to do.

    Central Banks Snap Up Gold in First Quarter

    As Turd noted..KEEP BUYING FOLKS! THE FATS CATS ARE!! BACKING UP THE TRUCKS!...people should be rejoicing these prices. I love it, more allocation for me on the cheap! Late July I'll start my paper chasing, in the mean time grab a little here and there.

    Be well

  54. Who loves the Turdman and his bottom?? ;) ME!
    You go, Dude.....go!

  55. This action looks great. GLD and SLV holding support on the ten minute chart beautifully (50MA and 200MA on the ten minute) plus closing strongly. Silver futures held the 50MA on the 120 minute chart today. This is very encouraging.

  56. Thanks, Turd. Always remember there are MANY more people reading and learning from your blog than the posters. Also remember some of most loyal and appreciative Turdites may not be posting a lot because they just don's have that much to say that they have not already said. We're still here, though. Hopefully you can feel that.

    I like your plan for the remainder of 2011. Like Fortinbras said, it gives us the big picture "commander's intent" so we can have something to base our individual decisions on. Speaking for myself, I don't ask more than that.

    And never forget that you are the one responsible for bringing together this great community where people can listen and learn from each other. That's priceless!

    Go hug the LT's, then crack open a cold one, find your book of Kipling poetry and read "If". :)

  57. Thanks for everything Mr Turd Ferguson!

    Can't wait to see the new site - wish I was the one building it for you!


    Please Remember to click the adds here (and look around advertisers site, leave the pages open, minimized as time on advertisers site and 'drill down' is measured by analytics and matters to the advertiser =)

  58. Why's everyone bitching? We're going to close >$35 and >$1495.

  59. Dear Turd we are all your friends and greatly appreciate you as person and your efforts.

  60. just sold half my open position, and holy shit look at that volume spike. Looks like I'm not the only one nervous about holding overnight...

  61. Whoa! Cream just took a great big pop UP 17% on the day.

  62. Turd, the selfless manner in which you give your time and insights has led to the creation of an invaluable community, where newbies and veterans alike can rub shoulders and knowledge can be freely traded.

    I was genuinely saddened to see that Stellaconcepts is taking a break from posting because the trolls have got to him. I believe people like yourself and Stella provide much needed anchor points, clear voices that cut clearly through the noise. It's a real talent and we're lucky enough to be living in an age where such voices can travel to every corner of the globe at the touch of a button.

  63. All I know is, if/when I can close out this trade I made (Jun 16 $35 SLV Calls with an basis of 1.58) at a profit, it will be entirely due to the information I've gotten from here.

    Thanks Turd!

    I've learned alot from lurking these last few days and the general guidance given in the blog has me positive on my trades so far, even though I am learning I was walking through a yard of rakes with a blindfold on.

    Here's to hoping I can end tomorrow in the green.

  64. SLW finally looks like it is waking up.....I can't remember the last time I saw a green day for SLW, and red days for EXK and GPL.

    @Turd - thanks for this week's playbook

  65. I'm still long the AGQ, but I wrote calls just in case... i think we might see one more leg down... maybe...

  66. OldNavy? Would you classify the pm market today as 'Haze gray and Underway'?

  67. You're a machine Turd. You should get paid for a full time job for this ;).

    Wah, tiring day.. but beautiful evening. Gonna sit in the garden listen to the crickets and smoke some home grown reefer, then hit the bed so heavy like I was made of gold.

    A productive rest of the day to the US crowd.

  68. Cream up 17% ... damn ... should have kept blindly buying those 1000 lot shares yesterday ... IAAI

  69. Just some observations.

    Turd, thank you, from the bottom of my heart. I do not know you, you do not know me. But, your sage wisdom is much appreciated. Your noble, charitable purposes for providing advice are one of a kind. At some point in the future, when your advice is proven to have been most prescient and correct, please do announce your run for senate, or something of the sort, and I will most assuredly contribute. Until then, please keep doing what you do without hesitation.


    1. This is an unbelievably productive, helpful, and provocative forum. Free, too! The rarity of this is mind-boggling.

    2. Almost 100% of the posters here are well-intentioned, and come here with an amazing breadth of knowledge and experience.

    3. The posters remind me of my first year of law school. The professor said all of you here were in the top 1% of your respective undergraduate schools. Each of you is brilliant, studious, and quite capable from an intellectual standpoint of finishing law school with high honors. The schools range from top tier Ivy League, to the most mundane state schools with minimal notoriety. However, all of you are worthy.

    Now, with that said, the professor calmly said: "look left, look right. Two of you will not be here in three years."

    Damn humbling, but it was dead-on accurate.

    It is not enough to just be here, participating. One must actively critique the information. One must use sound reasoning, and be prepared to defend a position.

    My law school contracts professor said it succinctly: "spot the issues and support your conclusions."

    In order to spot the conclusions, one had to have mastery over the subject matter. To support the conclusions, one had to understand both sides of the argument.

    Just like here.

    4. There are too many things going on in the world that are way out of whack.

    5. Observations of things I see that I believe are out of whack, in no particular order:

    -US president siding with Palestinians;
    -Greek about to default;
    -MENA on fire with revolt;
    -US involved in several different shooting wars, none of which seem to be well defined, nor useful from the perspective of average US citizen;
    -Spain in civil war;
    -Rule of law ignored in US, at all levels;
    -US populace takes more $$ from govt handouts than is contributed to govt by taxes;
    -Raiding sovereign country, killing several non-US citizens, apparently unarmed is cheered and acts go unpunished;
    -Perfectly acceptable for US drones to randomly kill civilians in foreign countries;
    -Lying to congress by big wigs is ignored;
    -Parole violation by non-violent offender (e.g., possession of controlled substance) results in lengthy incarceration;
    -Costs to house one inmate for non violent offense for one year exceeds costs for top level university tuition, room and board;
    -In California, garden variety speeding ticket is $450; traffic school on top of that is another $300.
    -One 12 oz. plastic cup of Bud Light at Dodger game is $12.00;
    -Unsecured credit card interest rates beyond 29% are allowed, while banks get 0.1% rate from Fed.;
    -Student loans are not dischargeable in bankruptcy, but multiple billion dollars of worthless debt, incurred under fraudulent circumstances is erased without blinking an eye (subprime loans, WAMU, ad nauseum);
    -US media is captured by moneyed interests;
    -Complete absence of responsible journalism, except for Matt Taibbi.

    There is more, but I have to go back to work . . .

  70. If anyone is interested, I just bought 1000 ounces of .999 pure silver for $0.25 per ounce over spot.

  71. Turd I respect the heck out of ya! Just not so sure a bunch of margin hikes are gonna do damage long term. In fact, I think it puts this all in stronger hands. I expect fast moves to continue. This market is still uber-small. And the physical market is tight as all get out from all I here. U get any type of an event that spooks oil higher and this thing will rocket. Plus I do expect a "QE-3 hybrid" to be announced over the summer. Even the Fed governors are admitting recent economoic data is "sobering". Its all going to be fun to watch for sure.

  72. @Turd Thanks for this great information. I'm addicted to your blog. Don't fret the small stuff..

    @HappyInTheWoods I wish I could SHORT equal amounts of AGQ and ZSL The way the ultra-ETF's adjust seems to make shorting equal dollars in ANY unit's double long and a double short a sure bet over any month+ timeframe. Schwab doesn't have shares available to short.

  73. chin,

    Was he blind buying in Cream Minerals?

  74. @Shill (and anyone else who GAF)

    Did you know the "Spanish Dollar" (AKA Piece of Eight) was the most prevalent specie in this country in the first few decades? Maybe it will be at the end, also?

    What I read was that HSP thinks it will happen, but that's just his opinion. He says there is a lot of support for it in the Mexican Congress. However they won't be in session again until fall. By then we'll be in the fall rally that Turd expects. We can make lots of fiat and buy pesos! Arrrrriba!!

  75. hmmm, just experienced my first disappearing post... tryin' again...

    @AgApe47 - the time period you mention (apr-aug '10) was prior to this game changer:

    "AP Business Writer, On Tuesday August 31, 2010, 5:52 pm EDT
    BOSTON (AP) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. is shutting down its proprietary trading desks and eliminating around 80 jobs to comply with new restrictions on investment banks, a source familiar with the situation said on Tuesday.

    The source spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because JPMorgan Chase isn't formally announcing the move.

    The overhaul of U.S. financial regulations signed into law in July limits proprietary trading in which an investment bank trades on its own accounts for its own profit, rather than on behalf of clients.

    The source says JPMorgan Chase is responding by phasing out proprietary desks that trade stocks, bonds and commodities.


    look at the dates and connect the dots...

  76. @CaliforniaLawyer, Wow, well said, my sentiments exactly! It's downright surreal, expecting this strange trend to continue unfortunately, until Black Swans become White. Thank you for putting that into words.

  77. Nice range trade. Easy for scalping.

  78. AEM had a strong finish today-fwiw--AEM seems to be a leader in both directions.

  79. Lazy Lester

    I like a little levity now and again ... no one better to poke fun at than me :o

  80. Hi Silverman, what time frame are u watching?

  81. Turd, don't let the new comers get under your skin. They will learn through time the value you provide all of us. (as do the turdites)

    I did not read all the posts but one trader was critical. Hopefully this guy will join in constructive dialogue, rather than rough put downs. If he is a trader, hopefully he is experienced enough to become a constructive turdite.

    Thanks, Mark V

  82. Honest John- Thanks for posting the interview, and I would agree with you that she does make some valid points. Like you, however, I am not sold on the argument, and here is why- first, she posits that the prime mover of a deflationary episode would be credit contraction. This ignores the massive elephant in the room, which is central banks expanding the monetary base at light speed and consequent devaluation of currencies. Second, it also ignores the human element- Vox Populi. If the major downturn she sees ever comes to pass, people will scream and politicians will react and money will be printed to 'help good folks make ends meet". The people will shout loudly for handouts and any politician who ignores them will not be in office for long. The cash expansion will overwhelm the credit contraction, ergo no deflation, just inflation and possibly hyperinflation. That is JMO though, would like to hear others. Best, Pining.

  83. My two cents.

    TF, I do not come to this site for financial advise or even for your charting calls. I do my own homework and look at yours to help confirm. Two heads are better then one. It increases probabilities for me that's all, do your own home work people.

    Two- This site build's confidence in those who believe in PM's. There has been many a year that it felt pretty darn lonely.It makes you second guess yourself when your the only one thinking something is right. When you come to this site and see thousands, perhaps more all thinking a long the same lines, it give you staying power for the large sell offs. Anyhow, thanks TF, I'll keep reading and I am sure myself and my family will be better off for your efforts.
    Maybe your new site could have a button that buys the Turd a round at the silver saloon instead of a donation button, because this has to be a labor of love, not sure how you do it.

  84. Don't be glum Turd. It's quite clear to me that you have a very good track record of predicting the silver market, for the very obvious reason that the people fixing it day to day are using the same manual as you. You couldn't do that in a real market.

    Anyone who doesn't get that is going to be suspicious of you.

  85. @ Honest John Did anybody listen to Schiff interview Nicole Foss today, the old deflation/inflation debate... she makes some valid points, but I just don't buy it...any opinions?

    I have the greatest respect for Stoneleigh and still wonder why she seems to make so much sense yet is almost alone in her conviction that deflation has to trump printing.
    As Bill Bonner says, eventually they will find a way to print and distribute enough to overcome the loss of shadow banking.

    Fortunately FOFOA was able to step back in a recent article and indentify a bigger picture. Possibly not the full picture but the biggest Ive come across, so now I am pretty much in the inflation camp.
    I was always cautious about Mish (the other deflationist )because he seems to be too tied to his arguments and prepared to narrow his definition of deflation if necessary.

    What I like is that both sides of the argument reckon gold is the sensible place to be (-:

    Thats all the due diligence I needed.


  86. Chin

    So... you're a kidder, as well as a "kid"?

    Still thinking of your exchange with "mr experience" the other day. :))

    Do you realize you were still in kindergarten when I was in 4th grade? I don't know if should listen to your advice anymore!

  87. Turd,
    Kindest Regards.
    Break out the cheer. Your among many new and seasoned friends.

    Thanks for creating the new blog.

  88. faraday:

    'If anyone is interested, I just bought 1000 ounces of .999 pure silver for $0.25 per ounce over spot.'

    How is that possible? I keep hearing the real price of physical is $46 plus a big premium because that's what someone was asking on ebay or a local coin shop.

    ebay and coin shop asking prices are the real market for physical!

    Anyway, there isn't any physical available, and they aren't making any more of it.

    /sarcasm off (can't believe that's necessary but it is)

  89. Honest John

    I too used to read Automatic Earth quite a bit, but honestly I DO NOT BUY THE DEFLATION ARGUMENT. Therefore, eventually lost interest.

  90. oldNavy

    I bow to age before beauty :-)

  91. Turd....any idiot that interprets your posts as giving one hundred percent buy or sell recs.....needs to report to Nurse Ratchett....Plus....this trade needs someone with your personality to keep the weak hands in it.....the PTB want their metals cheaply and flushing the weak hands is how they do and good job

  92. @Pining,

    much has been written on the topic of QEII and expansion of the money base. Credit and credit derivatives (read shadow banking) are still contracting faster than TPTB can print new money.

    Like you, I have no doubt that in an environment where Vox Populi is screaming for handouts, that handouts will be provided. I think, though, that in that same environment the pace of credit contraction and derivative destruction will still out pace money creation.

    I am in the camp of deflation in the things you don't need (typically bought on credit) and inflation in the necessities (food, fuel, clothing).

  93. @Pining & Honest John

    I did not read the conversation which you two are discussing, but the whole deflation/inflation issue is what lies at the heart of our current monetary policies. I have banker relatives and deflation is what scares the pants off them.

    I know many here hold Bernanke in deep contempt. I take a few shots at him myself and like to refer to him as BS Bernanke. However, he has always been quite clear that he will do whatever it takes to avoid a deflationary depression because it is infinitely worse than any alternative.

    He is trying to manage an inflationary policy which he must realize has only one ultimate end, but in his mind, deflation is unthinkable. Will we have QE to infinity? I don't see how it could be any other way.

  94. Well, I gotta new handle but its just me, the (Turd"er"). Always reading and following, rarely commenting...but, here's a notice for johnny-come-latelies who expect to have their butts wiped for them while on the way to wealth and glory. You're on the wrong blog. You will always be on the wrong blog (no matter which blog you choose). No one here changes diapers. Your Mom does not live here. Interest here is restricted to value-added comments (and ocassional cheering for great trades). If your not sure, remain silent.

  95. OldNavy

    I'm kind of thinking you and I are in the same boat. My number of comments is starting to decline. Reasons are twofold:

    1) Anything important that I wanted to say, I've already said.

    2) Roles I like to think that I used to play, such as answering newbs questions, coin shop updates, comments about physical, stuff about miners, adding a little levity, are now being taken care of by a host of capable Turdlings. The baton has been passed.

    I still catch up on the comments everyday, but I can see the writing on the wall that my comment activity has nowhere to go but down.

    Those out there who are sick to death of Eric#1, rejoice!!

  96. One more voice added to the chanting choir paying tribute to Turd Ferguson.

    Before I found this site, some 3-4 months ago, I was so lost trying to understand how particular events (news) could be interpreted one way by some "experts" BUT concurrently same item would have some other "expert" voicing an dimetrically opposite conclussion. What is a private investor to do??

    My man Turd, has helped me ct throiugh all that fog & misstep, and he does it willingly without charging anything for his much needed help.

    Whne trolls show up we are told to ignore them BUT for heavens sake, what does one do when thru Turd;s knowledge, we see that those trolls are oiut to cause havoc. And it is moslty newbies - please note that we were ALL newbies at some point - that suffer the affects. Yes newbies - heck even more established oldies - can question their thoughts & actions in the face of the misinformation coming from some who have their own agenda in play.

    I am a Canadian but am proud to be calling this Turd Ferguson, a friend - even though we have never nor probably will ever - meet.

    TF please ugnore the ignoramuses that show up here from time to time and stay on the path of trying to enlighten us who do NOT want to be slaves to the banksters.

    I hope I have stated the above clearly to show how much I value TF.

  97. Local shop update/weird story for any interested:

    So I went into Gainesville Coins today to pick up my new gear: 40 silver Buffs that I’d been waiting on for like 3 weeks, and then I ordered (3) 10 oz silver bars that will take another 3 weeks to get. I think GVille is holding onto any phyzz they bought at higher prices ahead of time, and they’re now only ordering more inventory as they sell it, so it’s out the door to fill orders as soon as they get it.

    The GVille showroom shop isn’t very big. In the past, only 1 or 2 customers waiting, or even none at all was the norm. Now every time I go in there at least 4 to a dozen people might be milling around waiting to get helped.

    Mind you, many like me run over there in the middle of the day when we can during a BTFD opportunity. They normally only have 1 person working the counter, because they haven’t been used to having so many anxious customers until lately. So that means if it’s busy then it may take 20 or 30 minutes to get helped and the spot may be back on the rise again. Usually not a big deal though…until today!

    So I’m talking w/ the lady cop who guards the showroom, because we’ve talked several times before, and she was telling me that she was finally trading in some of her Bernankies for the shiny stuff! I welcomed her to the silver family and then gave her Turd’s website address and ZeroHedge too…they’re my 2 essential sites for all day, every day reading thanks to all of you. The cop said she also got her cop partner as well as her son to invest as well, so I thought that was really cool.

    Anyway, the best part of the story goes back to the amount of people waiting for help and GVille being short-handed. Well this one dude about my age, mid to upper 30’s, had been sitting in a chair waiting since before I even got there. The girl helping everyone has to do a lot of paperwork when ringing in a sale. They grab your license to make a copy (that sucks) and you have to sign a bunch of paperwork, etc. If you’re there to pick up an order then she has to leave the showroom to go to another building where the vault is to get your gear. So it’s slow going for sure. Especially if you’re trying to BTFD and you can’t be patient!

    Well the dude who was there waiting was sitting in a chair, and after I had been there about 10 minutes he just lost it and started to get real pissed off. He started grumbling at first about the long wait. Then after a few minutes of that he jumped up out of the chair and kind of picked it up a little bit and then slammed it back down onto the floor. That got everyone’s attention, and then he started to walk out still pissed off and grumbling something. He opened and slammed the inner door, and then you could hear him slam the outer door to go outside. There are 2 doors at GVille…they have a camera outside and the cop buzzes you into the inner waiting area. Then they buzz you through the next door into the showroom. Pretty cool.

    But anyway, the dude scared the girl working there, and the cop at that point followed him outside to make sure he was leaving and didn’t come back in. Anyone else ever seen someone freak out lately at their coin shop?

    Pretty crazy these days to see someone have a total meltdown because they want to buy silver so damn badly!

  98. Friends

    Please cant we all just get a thong?

    Can't we all just get a bong?

    Can't we all just get along?

    What is all the bickering and one ups man shit?

  99. @California Lawyer -

    I must have gone to an easier law school. When we got that talk, the prof said to look left and right; *one* of you won't be here...

    And that was indeed spot on - about 2/3 of us made it.

  100. thanks Silverman, and do you use BB's, rsi's ? any particular settings?

    thanks again, will be good to watch

  101. Save_Am

    Nope, never seen that!!

    You were probably standing there thinking "shit, left my piece in the car!"

  102. oldNavy said ...
    However, he has always been quite clear that he will do whatever it takes to avoid a deflationary depression because it is infinitely worse than any alternative.

    infinitely worse for who my friend ... I am not sure I am clear what your position is in this statement ... worse from Bernanke's perspective (wallstreet) or worse for all (wallstreet/mainstreet) ... not really challenging you but just looking for clarification ... of course you should know the gloves come off after response :-)

  103. @Direct

    I use bollinger bands, MACD, slow stochastic and Williams R. Netdania's default settings.

  104. Intelligent, noble, reflective, thoughtful and generous are just a few words to describe your work Turd. Eternal thanks to you from another avid reader and fan of your blog. You have most definitely helped me to keep my sanity through the rollercoaster times we have been navigating. And given me some hope and encouragement too. Again, BIG HUGE THANKS!!

  105. Hyperinflation discussion---

    This link has an amazing blog/article by FOFOA about why hyperinflation is more likely than deflation. It is very long (actually VERY VERY LONG, but also very good).

    This may be the article guys were talking about.

  106. @atlee - cheers to that! The herbal medicine would really mellow this crowd!

    Can we get back to the charts? Anyone have expectations for the overnight action? Seems as though all signs are pointing to buying....any indicators pointing differently?

  107. Damn, folks- See what happens when the trolls head home for the day? An interesting, fun, and polite discussion breaks out!

    Lester- Great comments (and see, newbies- he disagreed with me, but did so politely and listed reasons why, hence a cool and informative discussion), and I am totally in agreement with you in terms of "bi-flation"- things you need inflating in price, things you merely want deflating in price. I am still in the inflation camp though, but you hit the key point: which is (or will be) bigger- contraction of private credit or expansion of public debt/monetization of same.

    In favor of your argument would be US GPD around 14 trillion/year, while yearly USgov deficit "just" 1.5 trillion/year. Against your argument would be unfunded US gov liabilities of 144 trillion to 200 trillion depending on who does the estimating. These are just crude, cocktail napkin metrics though, anyone else want to take a better stab at this question?

    OldNavy- I agree with you completely on QE to infinity, but I do think he has a choice. My opinion of Mr. Bernanke is less charitable. I just think that Ben predicates everything he does on the notion that a 4 certain Wall Street entities = the entire US economy and whole populace. They don't, and what is "good" for them may well destroy us all... cheery thought, I know!

  108. I agree with Lazy Lester. Buy things you need, not stuff you don't. However, our US economy has long been based on people buying lots and lots of things they do not need, and using credit to do it. We don't have anything else to power the economy. The last big employer was housing construction. Lured a whole bunch of labor into the country. Where do we go from here?

    I do believe there is a lot to the case for the fairtax. One of it's premises is that it will (by eliminating corporate income taxes) make the USA the most attractive place for manufacturing. Can't say for sure if that's true, but it seems obvious we need to do something RADICALLY different than what got us to this point.

  109. @ uptofreedom. Yes, thanks for the info on JPM's trading desk being 'halted' on Aug 30. And I do not expect Silver to trade as horizontal as it did last year but the possibility of a long 3 to 4 month range trade is fairy high. Cheers!

  110. True story--

    I went to my bank today to deposit a check. On the teller counter was a stack of slips of paper with the following "notice":

    Large Withdrawl Notification
    Listed below are concerns and options we would like for you to consider prior to withdrawing or cashing checks for large amounts of cash:
    1. Carrying large amounts of cash poses a danger to your personal safety
    2. The bank can provide a cashier's check in lieu of cash at no charge to you
    3. By taking cash you are assuming full responsibility in the event the cash is lost, stolen, or destroyed
    4. Holding your funds in cash earns you no interest (can't help but laugh at this one)
    5. By placing cash in a safe deposit box in this box and elsewhere, the funds will not be guaranteed or insured by the FDIC or any other federal or state agency

    WOW, my bank doesn't want to hand out cash. Is this surprising to anyone? It surprised me, and made me want to close my account.

  111. Thanks Turd.

    For everything. People like me had no clue what to do before this site. Now I feel like I can fight back and quit having my savings stolen from me.

  112. Someone mentioned Nicol Foss I beleive her name is. Max Keiser has her on on occasion. Had I listened to her a year ago I would have completely missed the massive upturn in the CCI. She is an extremely brainy academic. She is NOT a trader.

    Old Navy - pieces of eight were known as Thalers in Europe at the time. The Spanish intermarried with the Hapsburg Court and adopted their currency. Then when Silver was discovered in the New World they mined huge amounts and shipped them back as pieces of eight. They were known as dollars in America, thaler's in Europe, reale in Spain and Yuan in Spanish Phillipines when they traded with the Chinese. It basically was the world currency of its time, one ounce of Silver, for many,many years. Google it, its an interesting story.

    Cali Lawyer I agree with most everything only that Obama is not siding with the Palestinians. It is an effort to welcome in the C.I.A. sponsored 'Arab Spring' under the umbrella of American sympathy. Its b.s. If he was sincere then his AIPAC money would dry up and that would be suicide for him.

  113. By the way,

    Toronto Stock Market TSX is closed Monday. NYSE closed next Friday. Shouldn't be bearish? hopefully

  114. Found this interesting (not necessarily convincing or meaningful, but interesting):

    Reuters surveyed 64 "analysts and fund managers" and of the 59 who responded to the question, the percent chance of a QE3 was deemed to be 10%.

    Methinks those fund managers had better get their shorts on, or they may incur the wrath of God and recession if they are correct about not having QE3.

    On another (and yet the same) note, anyone notice the trend in GDP over the last 3 quarters? Then discount the fact that about 1/2 of Q1's growth can be attributed to inventory increases, and then figure out what happens if QE2 really ends. I'm going with the descriptor FUGLY.

  115. @SoccerDad, thanks!

    @agauinvest: I went to law school in early 90's, when economy was in the tank. Three sections, of about 100 kids. By second year, we had only two sections. If one's gradepoint fell below some defined level, the student was placed on academic probation. The student was given one semester to move the grade point higher, or if not, would be kicked out for poor grades. Two of my best friends were summarily kicked out for that reason. Real bright kids, too.

    After the first semester of second year, we had lost about 50% of the class. I was so scared of failing out, that all I did was read and go to class. I was one of those that did not go to a very high end undergrad. I was figuring I would be kicked out for grades. Ended up making law review. WTF?

    By the end of third year, sure enough, we were down by two thirds. Of those who made it, our bar passage rate was still only around 58% (but for graduates in the top 10%, it was 99%). Pretty scary. Anyhow, there you have it.

  116. Pining, rbl, et al...The FOFOA article was the big turning point for me as well, I printed it, and read it twice (and will again)..I followed Mish for quite some time too but I just can't see Bernanke allowing the deflation scenario to happen, the status quo will be maintained at all costs come hell or high water. That being said I still believe China is in a huge bubble right now, and when it pops, energy costs will fall, but for how long?...My timeline is long term so I'm looking to accumulate PMs and sit on them until I "retire" (ha) in about 15 years..Thanks for the input

  117. @Silverman, will have a ganders thanks

  118. Some people have expressed frustration with trading on days like today. I might suggest though I am probably over-reaching that one look at overnight trading as a possible alternative. I often get up at 1 a.m. Pacific Coast time to open or close a position depending on if the market is high or low in a big move one way or another. Then sleep in till 4a.m. review my position and reset if necessary. By 4-5a.m. I expect Blythe to show up and create downside volatility but its not always the case. What I'm saying is that the feel of the Market in the early morning is quite a bit different and the moves are sharper and take less time to resolve. It has to suit your trading style though. I like to buy and pyramid in to discounted price and often the spike lows of the entire day may be in the early morning hours. The spike highs due to optimistic Asian trading may also be sold if you hold over from the day before and then rentered after Blythe is done ramming down the price into open. Doesn't always work but like I said the movement of price is sharper without as much head fakery and the like. Just my opinion only and just my experience.

  119. Thanks Turd, appreciate the effort.

  120. @Pining

    No disagreement here. Nothing new in my position either. Ben defines "good and bad" in terms of what it means to the "big six" TBTF banks. But, what would we expect? He IS a banker. All I was saying really is that deflation scares the bankers shitless and so the FED will continue inflationary policies even when they know it must end in disaster for the people. You and I may think they have a choice, but Ben doesn't. He probably thinks he's saving the world. Jamie Dimon probably thinks of himself as a patriot. They, and the Prez, probably think we're a bunch of crazies who want to drive up precious metals and make their jobs more difficult. Everybody sees things from their own perspective.

    Sorry, Pining, I know you get that already.

  121. I began following this board in early Dec. and for a long time I read every post, up till about Turd's bottom 1.0. It has become to large to play catch up every time I log on. I don't know what I'd do without you TF. Thank You for your gallantry.

  122. Levelheaded,

    Interesting comment about your bank not wanting to give out cash. I've been withdrawing small amounts from atms regularly just in case and lately have noticed that the bills coming out of the atms aren't crisp like they used to be. Now the bills that come out of there look like they've been used for toilet paper. There may be some perfectly reasonable explanation, but I have visited the atms of like 10 different banks and they're all the same so it seems a little strange.

  123. Eric, I trust you, I and others will find plenty of room for chatting about European gold coins, canned bacon, and any/all of the other miscellaneous topics that interest us. I have plenty to say about many things, but this format sucks.

    I'm here for the social aspect, as well as to learn and teach.

  124. No worries OldNavy- all great points. Your mention of perspective is particularly astute- we tend to ascribe quite a few bad intentions to what those people do, but many of them (Ben included) may genuinely believe it is for the greater good. Some, however, are every bit as venal as we make them out to be. I'm proud to throw my lot in with the PM crazies on this site- an unruly lot, but on the whole a much better class of people than we see on TV every day!

  125. Folks, we all gambling. In a market that we know can be and will be manipulated. If we make a bet, and lose, we should blame no one but ourselves.

    Turd is NOT dispensing investment advice. He is an observer, sharing his observations, an charging you nothing. Education and entertainment, Folks.

    Let's all share ideas, risk nothing other than what we can afford to lose, celebrate victories and cry over defeats. But over all, let's do it together, and in a spirit of good fellowship and fun.

    Otherwise, GTFO.

  126. humahuaca, of course there is plenty of retail silver available. Some folks may find their local shops low on inventory, and American Eagles currently have an illogically high demand (IMO), which has them scarce. But I have yet to see Tulving, APMEX, Gainesville, or any other internet seller run out of stock. Sure, they sell out of certain items periodically, but there is always something else available. The putative shortage of retail silver products is grossly exaggerated.

  127. Fella's, checkout Mike Maloney's new video about gold, silver and currencies.

    Right now we have massive bargains for real physical silver as it is actually more rare than gold according to Mike.

    If that's true I need to sell some other assets and buy more silver asap.

    Would love to hear your thoughts on this video.



  128. kindabluzzay said...

    For those who'd like to think long term and about fundamentals - educate yourself:

    Thanks for sharing
    Mike Maloney's Vids are always informative and very well produced

  129. Turd,

    I really appreciate the time and the effort you put into these posts, and have a question relating to your summer targets if you have the time to answer?

    Is your target of $1,560 - $1,580 based upon no further QE... and does it change drastically if Benny announces QE3 in June? For the record, I had expected $1,650 - $1,750 before the end of June (based upon QE3 being a certainty), then a dramatic sell-off to the order of 20 - 25%.

    Apologies if this question has been asked already. Thanks again!

  130. A little good luck song for us:
    Stairway to the Stars - sung by Johnny Hartman and sax by Illinois Jacquet.

  131. Uh, I meant we'll find plenty of room to discuss anything and everything on the new site.

  132. I'm scratching my head...I don't understand how Tyler Durden can post elaborate posts so frequently on zerohedge. Is that one guy or a group? It's like every 20 minutes from that guy. Does he run that site or is he just one of many writers. I'm confused by it.

  133. Turd. Thanks for everything. Great info as always. Looking forward to the new site.

  134. @LevelHeaded from my understanding zerohedge is a group of EX-Goldman Sachs guys.

  135. Anybody else noticing a slow disappearance of $20 bills in circulation? It's a slam dunk that if you break a 50 or 100, they look at you like you are from Mars. But lately, whenever I break one of the big ones, I get a pile of 10's for change. Plus they are looking at the 20's for counterfeits, etc.

    OK, so they already are pretty clear that they'd like to get rid of pennies and nickels. Don't like 100's and 50's. Now 20's are persona non grata.

    There's been some worry on the blog about everything going to debit cards and all electronic money. I'm kinda starting to feel it too.

  136. You are one level headed guy turd my man. I have been trading the metals now for around 3 years sometimes wildly successful, sometimes I feel like throwing in the towel and everything with it. I don't comment much because I like to fly solo, learn from my own mistakes and such but I'm glad I found you because you say just what I am thinking too.. ha ha any ways great work as always. We will get through all this you know, together, without the trolls...

  137. One can assume Turds target will be hit even if QE is discontinued ( FAT CHANCE ). Metals will climb based on Defaults alone. Remember folks we here in the States have a Munis problem that no one talks about, School funding that no one talks about University's struggling...The list goes on.

    You can only keep raising rates, taxes and so on so far before the public says enough is enough. And of course we have Foreign defaults and a new Japanese recession ( more like an implosion ) These problems are not going away over night. Our trade is volatility...and its all around us. ALLOCATE, ALLOCATE ALLOCATE.

    Nuff said.

    ( This buds for you Turd )

  138. I thought I was the only one getting shitpiles of tens in change, though it might reflect the types of places I use cash. A while back, I wasn't paying attention and got a counterfeit ten in change at the grocery store. I went back inside and bought more groceries with it. I'm not sure it was the moral thing to do, but I sure as hell wasn't going to be the one to get stuck with it. Hmm, I probably committed a federal crime, now that I think about it...

  139. Supreme Court OKs Warrantless Searches
    Better Hide That Gold And Silver Good


    Friends with several Law enforcement officers and a few Sheriffs ( Oath keepers ) they said and I quote.

    " That will be the day I bust someones door in for smelling Marijuana, I have a family at home, I would hate to be shot and killed "

    True story, and I am sure 90% of our law enforcement feels the same way. Unless those treasonous pieces of shit who fart in those chairs ratify the constitution their pen stroke means NOTHING!

  140. My shinny just arrived... oh so shinny

  141. Bill Murphy interview on Gold Seek Radio.

    (This came available yesterday afternoon. I don't know if someone already posted this.)

  142. Re Warrantless Searches by Police:

    Lawyer-speak here, so scroll by if not interested.

    The 4th Amendment provides that law enforcement may not arbitrarily search and seize. We all know that.

    This is the actual text: "The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized."

    Like all Constitutional Law, interpretation of the Bill of Rights, including the text of the 4th Amendment, is in the eye of the beholder.

    The 4th Amendment search and seizure has defined parameters, and a long history of interpretation. For a detailed, but accurate, history, check out this site:

    Constitutional Law is a 4 unit class in law school. It is a detailed, difficult class, with loads of reading and information to process. Basic 4th Amendment analysis, is, however, pretty straightforward. I will not go into the nuances.

    However, know well that there are many exceptions to the requirement that law enforcement must first obtain a search warrant before entering upon private property to search or seize property. The classic exception is consent. Another classic exception is "search incident to a lawful arrest."

    The recent US Supreme Court case dealt with another favorite law enforcement exception: "exigent circumstances."

    Basically, if police are afraid that the evidence is transitory, and could disappear during the time a lawful warrant is obtained, then there is an exception to the search warrant requirement. The big fight was over whether the exigent circumstances exception applied if the cops create the exigency. In short, if the cops create the exigency, they can create the exception to the search warrant requirement, which exception would then swallow the whole rule.

    So, the fight in the recent case was whether the cops had enough evidence to support the claimed "exigent circumstances" and thereby avoid the search warrant requirement. The Supreme Court said the cops had ample grounds, since the cops knocked on the door, then heard sounds of what the cops thought were evidence of drugs being flushed down the toilet. In the Court's mind, that was good enough, and upheld the warrantless entry on the grounds of exigent circumstances.

    Bottom line:

    Cops will come in at will. Later on, there will be a legal argument over the legal justification for the illegal entry. If the entry is illegal, then the evidence seized cannot be used in court to convict. The cops are IMMUNE from civil penalties for the illegal entry.

    Remember, you cannot sue the kings men!!!!

    I had a client who contracted pneumonia, and died, due to cops tear-gassing the house, and keeping my bed ridden client on the curb in freezing weather. The lawsuit was thrown out, since the cops cannot be held liable civilly for doing their jobs, even if they do the jobs poorly or make bad decisions. If the cops intentionally do bad things, there is a remedy under 42 USC section 1983. But, generally, cops do what they want with impunity. Including, entering YOUR house, and seizing YOUR stash.

    Be warned, and very afraid. Hide/bury your stash at an anonymous location which only YOU know about, and which is unconnected by any documentary trail or evidence. Seriously.

  143. Tesla said...
    Please Remember to click the adds here (and look around advertisers site, leave the pages open, minimized as time on advertisers site and 'drill down' is measured by analytics and matters to the advertiser =)"

    Sorry, but no. I did that with one of the ads "Sell your unwanted Gold! Today!...." Turns out by their own "Gold Calculator" they'd give the very generous sum of about $750 for a 1 ounce gold eagle when spot was about $1450 at the time. Personally not a place I'd do business with. That is my kindest feeling about them. The rest I'll just leave unsaid....

  144. @Cali Lawyer,

    You wrote all that in 9 minutes? WTF!

  145. Great work, "Turd"! I hold mostly physical, but I like to play a little. What a world we live in ... if only the markets were fair, I'd quit my day job :)

  146. Just saw this at oftwominds... I enjoyed it
    If The Pledge of Allegiance reflected reality, it should now read: I pledge allegiance to the profits of the Corporate States of America, and to the stock market for which it stands, one nation under the Federal Reserve, with taxation and serfdom for all.


  147. Lazy Lester:

    I type myself. I used to get paid by the word . . .

  148. @California Lawyer, THANKS for that FACTUAL statement.

  149. kliguy38 said...

    Traders with plenty of cash can make a lot of money with the PM trade over the next few months playing the BBs MACDs etc....enjoy


    How are you playing the range? Buy lower BBs when MACDs turn up? Reverse at top? Options, SLV/AGQ?

    Please elaborate.

    Thanks! Jim M.

  150. Turd said,"I've given you my projection for the next 6+ months. Of course it's not going to be accurate on a tick-by-tick, daily basis. Jeezo-pete, I would hope all of you are smart enough to understand that."

    Turd you know most of us are smart enough to understand that and you know it. The trolls never will.

    Turd said,"What kills me is how new posters show up and immediately begin to defame this site and its readers without first doing some background and research.

    They are not new posters Turd, they are idiots, trolls, and detractors.

    Turd said,"We are all adults who are responsible for our own decisions."

    Those who expect more of you than what you already give are not adults psychologically.

    Turd said, "1) Complete and utter foolishness because if/when I am proven wrong, the new site will crash and burn."

    No way Turd never, you have way too many very dedicated and loyal followers who will be there no matter what happens.

    Scott, our resident 60 year old genius in a 22 year olds body, said, "You are best when you are yourself. Nobody should be expecting you to be 100% right, they should only expect that you are honest and genuine. Quite a hard thing to achieve in these days."

    I could not possibly say it better than that.

    Turd please give your huge and growing fans more attention than you give the few idiot trolls that only come here because of your success. Let us take care of them for you. Don't lower yourself to their level by responding to them. We can and will do that better than you.

    Turd, you are the best in the business in my humble opinion. Please don't let the few idiots, who don't know you, get the best of you. Again, thanks for all that you do for us you are so dearly appreciated.

  151. Turd,

    You're doing great work, and I for one really appreciate what you do. I check your blog multiple times every day, and I hardly ever post a comment, but I really appreciate what you are doing here. I would guess you have a lot of readers like me, that silently appreciate this blog very much, and maybe we should post comments of appreciation more often so that a vocal negative trolling minority does not burn you out.

    Keep the faith, you are doing good work, and I for one sincerely appreciate it.


  152. @Cali Lawyer: Are you a constitutional law expert? If so, I wonder aloud...

    What recourse do the people have to force the AG and others to uphold the law?

    I'm not a lawyer, but if what Taibbia says is fact, then how do we the people force prosecution? Same question for the dadgum robo-signing mess.

    Doesn't every Congressman and appointee, not to mention the dadgum President, pledge an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution?

    I want that oath enforced. We only need to hang one of them to change it.

    Can that be done?

    Thanks, Jim M.

  153. OK, I gotta leave day jail and go home. I'm getting pissed thinking about that crap again! REALLY PISSED!

    Ooops. Sorry for the kiddies out there that don't like "bad" language. Has anybody been arrested in middle school for saying "pissed" yet?

  154. @ Edward

    I'm not saying 'park your brain' and do something stupid.

    As a web developer I know that advertisers pay more for advertising that produces clicks and reasonably long page views.

    Click some ads - look around the advertisers site - that's all.
    ...and if you can afford it: feed the Turd a couple times too...

    Thanks =]

  155. Buy signals will come in hte next 4-5 days according to several indicators.

    The first index I like is the ADX, it indicates buying and selling pressure. Right now it indicates that the buyers have now leveled off, it's not going up or down, but the sellers have stopped increasing and are now decreasing.....good sign. Whe more buyers come in this will generate a buy signal.

    Next I like the MACD, if curent market action continues it will generate a buy signal via a crossover in 4-5 days.....

    Next is the parabolic sar, it was at $37.71 today. In oreder to generate a buy signal we would have needed to it tht number today. But the nice thing is that number decreases every day, so Friday if it will be a little lower. In 4-5 days we should hit that number and it will generate a buy signal...

    With several indicators flashing the buy signal I think we will see some nice movement....

    These numbers were generated using $silver as the symbol.....but I think SLV's are almost the same but the sar is lower....

    Stockpirate and thanks to all and turd.....

  156. Thanks so much Turd you are the only one who gives us up to date blow by blow info we can be guided by. I only deal in physical - so hang in there till next week to see if we are stable?

  157. I've studied the fairtax..extensively. There is a lot to like about it in terms of its protection of the the poor w pre-bates.
    Weaknesses ABound: 1)the poverty level below which everyone receives a pre-bate is not linked to inflation...even the gov't's questionable version of inflation. Ever notice how long it took congress to raise the minimum wage? How long do you think it would take them to raise the level below which the national sales tax would be pre-bated? My guess: never. Which means in short time no one would be below the poverty level!!! 2) It does away with the inheritance tax (death tax). NOw this is an emotional issue so I'll just say this. Never has wealth been more concentrated in this country than now, not even during the "guilded age" before fed income taxes. This huge concentration of wealth ultimately perverts Democracy (anyone argue w that). History teaches us over and over again in societies with intense concentration of wealth there follows revolution. (Sound familiar?) Thus the fairtax gets politicians hands out of the tax break business but so heavily favors the wealthy that much woe surely will follow.

    I do however dig the part about attracting massive foreign capital to USA due to 0 Corporate tax rate!!

  158. Have a question, which silver ETF do you trade?
    I trade SLV.

  159. Turd, don't think I've opened the WSJ since I started listening to Jimmy Hendrix on a daily basis.

    Really. All the news I need is here.

    This site gets two big thumbs up and an occasional chubby.

    First your great technical analysis and uncanny batting average. Even the legendary Babe struck out once in awhile.

    Second the community contributions from all over the world. Just in the past couple days I've been exposed to the likes of Martin Armstong and Hugo Salinas Price and talked with a Turdite that lives in the birthplace of Sheaf Stout.

    As for the trolls that come sauntering in from time to time, I say let em in and don't take it personal. They don't realize they're the evil that defines the good.

    @ Atlee....thongs and bongs -- well said brother. Once a moon I'll throw in some FUBAR. Keith would approve.

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  161. TF,

    Noob here. Been reading for a while. I too, do not understand how some can be so negative. You do this of your own goodwill. You don't have to do this. You don't have to spend many hours to help a few figure out what sinister things are going on. But you do. For that, I say thank you very much. I don't "trade". Don't have the cash. I do, however, buy a little phys every month, regardless of price as I see what's to come. Some don't, and maybe that's why they have a beef...however trivial and lame and uneducated as it may be. No matter. Stay strong, brother. There are many out there that love ya.

    Be well...

  162. Another day, another HFT algo war starting right after mkt close.

    Still fighting 35, losing.

  163. At George,
    I used to think the same thing.. I thought the charts etc were no good in a rigged game.. only problem is this.. the game has been rigged for so long that the charts today take this into account.

  164. Anyone up for talking some macro/political issues?

    1) Hyperinflation vs. deflation. I answer with another question -- under what scenario do the banksters win the most? Clear answer is deflation when they come in with all their printed money (that they're currently hoarding as reserves) and buy up assets after everyone defaults who had any leverage. This buying on the forced dip worked out great for them in 1929. Before that it worked in 1873 with the railroads and the farms. Before that.....

    2. IMF/DSK -- not only a total setup but greatly undermines NYC as the financial capital of the world. If I'm a powerful dude with political enemies I don't want to set foot in that city.

    3. Obama's statement on Israel. Back to 1967 borders? Israel will never agree to that, is Obama's call the rallying cry of the Muslim world. Has another pillar of WW III just been set? This is the kind of event that could upset the historical trend in PM.

    4. JPM in Afgan. Did they ever leave? Haven't they been there since the English started drugging the Chinese?

    5. Cal Lawyer. Great analysis on the 4th. I've got a defense lawyer buddy in CA who says the cops are the biggest liars on the stand. So we got that going for us too.

    6. In connection with #5, love how the concept of innocent before proven guilty has been thown out along with the 4th. Talking head on Kudlow now railing about the fact that DSK gets a pension from the IMF.


  165. I get the feeling that I'm the only one who watches the Dow-Gold Ratio around here. Seems to me the story lately has been lower highs and lower lows. If the next low takes us to around 8.0, then at the current Dow that would be gold at 1575. It's food for thought, and seems to fit generally with Turd's scenario.$INDU:$GOLD

  166. Anyone concerned at all that the guys behind Glencore, massive commodities business, chose now as the time to sell?

    Personally I think it's a pretty big red flag, and unlike central bank buying and selling I'd go with them not against them.

  167. TF, as many here stated, in a nutshell- why let the 1% dictate the 99%. you can't pleae the 100% and why would you bother knowing this. Most are extremely thankful for your generosity in your sharing of knowledge and time. We appreciate ALL you do.

    Ignore the HoTH's (HerdofTurdHeads).

  168. TF,

    In the new site, is it possible to consider categorising and organising the views of the commenters in either positve, neutral and negative category.

    One suggestion is to have 3 columns, in a left to right fashion, time serial running downwards, positive, neutral and negative columns, for commenters to post their views, so we can all instantly see who is speaking for or against who. The mod and senior members can move their comments accordingly to the appropriate column for new forumers to discern the comments accordingly.

    Bottomline is I think the new site requirement is not for a mechanism to kill the noise/negative comment but to filter and group the comments accordingly. That way, we can see who is standing from where and which position and commenting for what he thinks and sees ahead.

  169. turd i look for you to confirm my feelings....or i could chose to fade you... anybody looking for you to give them the score of the super bowl is an asshole....if you don't understand you can be right and still lose keep it under your mattress...this is better than betting football...if you are not a gambler, keep it under ur mattress....

  170. @niggles

    I am quite aware of what the DXY is and of the definitions of the words fiat, real, nominal, tangible, etc.

    Seems you are saying PM's will go up no matter what happens to stocks, sovereign debt and the euro/USD.

    Do I have that right?

    I wholeheartedly disagree.

    I take it that also means you don't give a damn about the 'fiat' price of PMs, unlike 98% of the others here?

    If so I congratulate you on at least being consistent in your beliefs, unlike some others.


    I expect PMs to go up in price. Do I expect them to go up regardless of any other piece of data that is furnished by our benevolent central planning overlords? No. Do I expect them to go up in a straight line? Fuck no. Anyone who is expecting that to happen in a market, particularly one where intraday price swings of 2% are common, is going to lose everything. In point of fact, this correction isn't even that bad compared to some of the ones that happened on the way to the last nominal price high in the 1980's.

    Forecasting the price of PMs based on the DXY is nonsensical. The only way to measure the strength of the dollar to PMs is to measure the strength of the dollar to PMs. Correlating the price of PMs with the strength of the DXY is just that, a correlation. And one one that is frequently WRONG. If the DXY is rising, it means that competing currencies, primarily the euro, are even less desirable than the dollar. It does not mean that PMs are less desirable than the dollar. If you are forecasting PM price strength based on the strength of the dollar index you are operating on a bad premise. Garbage in, garbage out.

    All of the data I have seen indicates that the euro and the dollar are both in free fall right now, and the DXY as a measure of dollar strength is essentially meaningless because of it. If you lock a bunch of fat kids in a room with a polar bear and one of the fat kids gets eaten, that does not improve the lot of the other fat kids by one iota. So whether you love silver or think the bottom is going to fall out from it and it will correct 80% in a week, the #1 trade of the decade is to sell your dollars.

    Anyway, I've had my fill of ranting about this. YMMV.

  171. This comment has been removed by the author.

  172. Everyone's talking about how gold/silver needs QE3 just to stay afloat. I dont think this is so. After yesterday's FOMC even tried to downplay QE3 possibilities, Gold/silver even had a jump.

    Gold/Silver wont be repeating their 2008 performance as the bonds of China, Japan, UK, Eurozone and especially US Treasuries, have all been shown to be about 'safehaven' has a Bin Laden porn lair. From ZH...

    Rosie reminds what happened laste year between the end of QE1 and the surprise start of QE2
    •Gold was the commodity that bucked the trend as it acted as a refuge at a time of intensifying and financial uncertainty - to $1,235 an ounce from $1,140 and even with a more stable-to-strong U.S. dollar too.

  173. On Dec 2, 2010, Turd laid out his "Terms and Conditions" (reproduced below).

    He has lived up to these and proven to be a man of integrity.


    Before we get started this morning, I thought I would share an email I received yesterday from my new friend, Graham, in Australia...

    "I have only request: as you get more followers (and potentially more "donations"), please do not change your style and the frank way you express your views. If you get too successful the trap for you may be that you try to keep everyone happy all the time by "sitting on the fence" or hedging your views so that you are never "wrong". The world is full of useless, equivocal market prognosticators. May you never join their camp!"

    To live by these rules you, my dear reader, and I must have an understanding. You know I started this blog because I felt that we need to educate and warn as many folks as possible about what is, most assuredly, coming.

    The end of The Great Keynesian Experiment and all that that implies. However, I very much enjoy following the gold and silver markets and profiting from trading them. Obviously, this is an interest of yours, too.

    Now, I recognize that I seem to be particularly good at predicting future prices. Since that's all part of the fun, my promise is that I will continue to tell you exactly what I think is going to, tomorrow, next week and into the future.

    When I am right (often), take it for what it is...another good call by someone who has some experience in this arena.

    When I am wrong (sometimes), let's all just deal with it and move on. If you, my dear reader, promise not to whine and/or complain when the markets temporarily move against us, I promise to always tell you exactly what I think.


  174. @humahuaca

    I saw that today. Adds to what I was seeing on the charts and with what is happening in Europe. I believe the market is coming down soon!

  175. @humahuaca

    I don't know about a commodities CRASH, but I can't help but agree their timing coinciding with a double top in the CCI is no coincidence.

    Is the Glencore IPO Signaling a Crash in Commodity Prices?

  176. Turd,

    I've been here since day one off ZH and I really admire what you do and I am thankful for your commentary. For me this is one of my daily reads.

    A suggestion for the new site, first time log on has to tick "I HAVE read and UNDERSTAND the DISCLAIMER" before being granted access...and beef up this disclaimer with a few folksy warnings about fools and their money.

    Say it once and say it well. 'Nuff said?

  177. TF,
    I've been a faithful reader since November. I also occasionally go back and re-read past posts. Will this vast wealth of information (your posts in particular) be in an archive section of your web site? I hope so.

  178. @Cal Lawyer,
    Great contributions, sir!

  179. Up. Down. Sideways.

    Silver has brought my sense of awareness to the fore and I still enjoy trading the paper side. Tho' I'm sticking to my guns. Wait. Digital chits are on their way to bail out the US.

    Thanks for sticking your neck out T.

  180. Enough already. Let's get back to topic.

    To the experienced options guys: if there's some confidence that we've put in/are putting in a base here, what are your thoughts on selling put spreads? SLV put vol is still ridiculously high; seems like a good way to make a little change while the moves aren't so huge.

  181. Turd, word to the wise: posters negative comments seem to affect you. Please consider the differences between the types of ppl who post on your blog and those you have grown accustomed to dealing with on a daily basis. Your family and friends love and respect you, your clients are successful professionals and pay for your advice. Trolls on this site don't love, respect or even know you. Opinions are like arseholes, everyone has one. So my suggestion to you is not to grow a thicker skin, but to learn to alter the weight you give to feedback based on the person (not possible here) and the quality of the advice / criticism shared here (all that you have to work with).
    Also consider: if the banking cartel wants to depress you, what would they need to do? Pay a few college kids to post derogatory comments? If they're smart they'll pay a few traders to post negative comments. You're painting a target on your back, showing your weak spot. We need for you to adjust to the nature online blogging world - you're talking to the great unwashed masses now. So please be true to your target audience and learn to smile graciously at those for whom your help is not possible. Peace and Love bro.

  182. Great (re)post Turdle GG. There should be some kind of Turds greatest hits link.

    Also I thought some here might be interested in some info I got today, I was able to take a tour of an e-waste recycling facility and ask a lot of questions. I didn't know that they actually used silver to cover the connectors on ram a few years ago. I really wanted to take some home and experiment on them to try to get out some of the good stuff buts its so hard to get the gold and silver out.
    Anyway, they sell the e waste scrap for 41-75 cents a pound to a refiner. The place I was at was more of a sorting business, they take out the copper and steel as much as they can and then sell it by weight to a refiner. The refiner then gets between 20 and 26 ounces of silver or gold per metric ton as they go through it. This only old computer parts of course, no polyester pants of anything but still interesting.

    We've had a few discussions about scrap, and I'm wondering is anyone knows of a refining company that is big enough to be publicly traded so I can buy some stock in them:)

    Clicking ads as always thank you Turd!

  183. Bioci,
    If you can stand the potential volatility, selling put spreads might work for you. Which ones are you considering?

  184. TO CALCUM:

    I fully agree, public comments can come from any fool who can type, but those people are unhappy with themselves and only want to share their unhappiness with everyone else, but they're not our judge... I agree with you and i appreciate your kindness and your thoughtfulness in posting your encouragement to Turd...

    Turd has a lot to teach all of us... I'm a full time SP trader and I highly respect Turd's work for the gold and silver markets, he has a lot to teach us...

    On the subject of foolish posters, even a fool can teach a wise man, but even a wise man cannot teach a fool...

  185. I took 100 oz out of circulation today. The guy said "I'd rather have the money than the silver coins. I can't buy food with the silver" Weak holder to strong holder.

  186. Bro. D,

    The June 32/31 looks juicy, but I'd probably do the 31/30. SLV never went below ~32.5 in the recent troubles, and it seems an easy enough trade to get out of if things start to go wrong--if it doesn't happen *too* fast.

  187. @Jim:

    Let me throw my $0.02 in the ring.

    "What recourse do the people have to force the AG and others to uphold the law?"

    Elections matter. Holder is a buffoon. Corrupt to the core. Best hope is to oust his boss and then out he goes.

    "I'm not a lawyer, but if what Taibbia says is fact, then how do we the people force prosecution? Same question for the dadgum robo-signing mess."

    The people cannot force a prosecution directly. If the states do it, which they are now, then it becomes political, and there will be miniscule settlements, with no admission of wrongdoing. It literally is just a payoff, and all is swept under the rug.

    As for trying to sue the banks and crooks civilly for fraud or whatnot, it is next to impossible to muster enough resources to go after the big wigs. Litigation, which is what I do, is EXPENSIVE. As in REALLY EXPENSIVE. Big law firms in big cities with experienced, top notch lawyers charge north of $800 per hour. They staff up a case with a TEAM of them, plus paralegals. On a small civil case, the legal bills reach into the hundreds of thousands of dollars. The only real way to take out the fraudsters is a class action, which could span decades, like the Tobacco cases. It is happening as we speak, but don't hold your breath expecting swift justice.

    The one exception which could prove damn helpful is a Qui Tam action. Basically, an insider gives up where the bodies are buried, then the lawyer files a lawsuit if the government fails to act. Those cases are wonderful to pursue, and do the job. But, the trick is to get an insider to flip, without being afraid of the trip over the bridge like Mary Jo Kopekne.

    "Doesn't every Congressman and appointee, not to mention the dadgum President, pledge an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution?"

    Yes, and? So do the cops who lie on the stand to put away those who may be innocent. Remember the Los Angeles cops who got busted for basically acting like the very gangsters they were trying to bust? The Rampart scandal? The facts of which were pretty much turned into the movie "Training Day" with Ethan Hawke and Denzel Washington? (One of my favorite all time movies. Remember when Denzel told Ethan Hawke: "Jake, it's not what you know, it's what you can prove . . .")

    "I want that oath enforced. We only need to hang one of them to change it."

    Can that be done?

    Ron Paul, 2012. Provided they do not treat him like JFK.

  188. To all who appreciated my comments, you are most welcome. I try to chime in when I actually think I may be helpful.

  189. Personally I like TF's approach. He addresses everyone, not just the experienced regulars. I think what he posted today is terrific. He can't really provide more clarity than that.

  190. What's your Favorite Golden State Mint Round?