Wednesday, May 25, 2011

The Silver Bullet

Truth be told, only readers of this site would have been confidently buying last week at $34 silver. It is my sincere hope that your faith in me has rewarded you with some nice gains over the past week. We took a lot of grief for the beating The Cartel mercilessly applied earlier this month but we kept our heads in the game and, with the creative use of a little white-out, came up with an actionable game plan.

Silver is now being quickly drawn toward $39.50. I'm a bit surprised at how quickly it is getting there as I didn't think it would approach that level until next week. Who knows, it may still wait until then to get there. However, as you can see on the chart below, there is nothing from a technical standpoint that stands in its way.

Gold continues to struggle with 1525 but copper is back above 410 and crude is at 101 so, provided extraneous events don't cause an unforeseen dollar rally overnight, silver should continue to climb toward our short-term goal.

Lastly, I've received several inquiries regarding my current option strategy in silver. In summary, it is this:
1) I bought 2 July $45 calls earlier this month, trying to "catch the knife". Oops.
2) I also bought 2 July $40 calls last week at the actual bottom. Hooray!
3) My stated goal for July silver is somewhere around $43.
4) This means I expect the July $45s to expire worthless.
5) I also expect resistance and a pullback once silver reaches above $39.
6) When silver reaches above $39, I plan to sell a total of 4 July $45s. These are the two I currently own plus two more. Selling 4 July $45s may bring in about $10,000 for my account.
7) I can sell the additional two $45s because I own (long) the two $40s.
8) This creates a "spread" whereby I am long the 40s but short the 45s.
9) This means that, once silver exceeds $45, I no longer make any money.
10) This trade is optimized IF silver closes right at $45.00 on option expiration day in late June.
11) My upside gain potential is now capped. I'll make the same amount of money now if silver closes upon expiration at 45.01, 55.01 or 65.01. It doesn't matter. The most I can make is:
$5000/point X 5 points X 2 contracts = $50,000 total
12) IF silver retreats and closes upon expiry below $40, all of my calls are worthless but I get to keep the $10,000 I received when selling the $45s.
13) IF silver closes upon expiry at $43, the $45s are worthless but the $40s are worth $15,000 each.
$5000/point X 3 points X 2 contracts = $30,000 total

I fear that I just made that about as clear as mud for most of you but I wanted to try.
Again, if you have detailed questions or if you have an interest in opening your own account, here's a link from last year that provides some help.

Thanks again for reading. TF


  1. I see profit taking on miners in the morning, not sure about gold & silver.
    I also see overall market nudging slightly higher.

  2. @Nad123

    You might look at the resistance levels that the Turd lays out as places that could create dip-buying opportunities... other than that, there's sell offs like the end of today. The big buying dips tend to happen with EE attacks, which have been noticeably missing the last couple days... it's been quiet, too quiet.... but if JPM isn't coming out to play, we might just have a slow, steady increase with some dips at the resistance points.

  3. @Turd

    Thanks for the explaination, I'm starting to think about options and this helps. By the Fall QE3 runup I plan on being an options monster.... ;-)

  4. Mitch out of Spain, my first comment on young Turd's Blog. I have to admit, I really do take my hat off to you as far as the information you provide. As far as services out there are concerned, across many different markets I am seriously impressed with your honesty and talent of reading markets. I am a very old hand at this and hopefully recognise talent when I see it. One word of caution however, as you become more popular the bankers/traders will use your levels against you. I know, I was one of them. I wish you and any independent investors in the PM's the best of luck. Regards.

  5. Good Ol' Jim Willie is back.

  6. Great results. Kudos. Buy gold/silver to prepare.

  7. This comment has been removed by the author.

  8. Turd, you're simply the best!
    I'm asking this myself for months: What's the reason, why you don't buy futures?

  9. @David, I'm sure that's true already.

    Slave citizens profitting from the activities of Super Citizens? Heavily fronwed upon.

  10. Great work Turd,

    Thanks to your prognostications I held my ground and didn't buy too much physical when it was near fifty, and I kept some powder dry for the drop. I collected some more near the bottom (I waited a bit too long and missed the very bottom, but hey, that's life). I am just hoping that it doesn't take off again before I can grab a few more tubes of ASEs.

    I am looking forward to the new website.

  11. TJ:
    I didn't understand your tickets, but I do something like that betting horses. A wide net.
    Profit is profit. Steady profit. The wheels of justice grind slowly but ever so fine.
    Best wishes to you, MEC

  12. Awesome Turd! That's the exact kind of break down I was looking for! Thank you very much. That goes a long way in helping me understand how this options crap works.

    The way I see it, if I have some play fiat why not try to turn a little profit on it and use the profits to add to my physical stash.

  13. Hi! Can't figure out how the whole options world works. More precisely how you can earn money selling $45 July calls when silver is trading below that price.

    Is there any basic guide about options someone can recommend me?
    Thanks in advance.

  14. Turd dude, nice post. I like how your attitude is "this is what I expect to happen, but it may happen slightly differently." It is a good way to look at things rather than trying to force your view on the market which generally ends in wailing and gnashing of teeth. Turd's #2 looks pretty good so far. I'm glad I don't have to smell it though.

  15. Personally I am finding just owning the future itself is better, if you have the cash to cover the margin requirements, as you avoid the extra cost of the options. The downside is you have unlimited downside loss, but that is what stops are for. So far, so good. I screwed up once when I didn't understand the margin requirements and had too little, but now that I am up about $50k I have enough to cover a few solid futures positions.

    Turd, do you ever purchase the futures or just the options? Or both?

    Other options you can do is say you have a future position, like when silver was high. Instead of a stop you can buy a put to protect your downside risk, paying for the cost of the put is your "insurance" cost, as it were. I might think of doing that some time, but so far I have not.

  16. Great call turd! I plan on heeding your 42 call and using that point to sell half of my stack to lower my cost to zero then buy back in in the summer. I know you said not to sell physical but I need some dry powder and my payees don't take silver yet

  17. @ TF

    When eventually reaching 39-39.5, fighting the resistance will result in an expected pullback as read in your thread, how far down would you insider the drop to be, down to next support or is that overall impossible to guess for now?

  18. The best call on silver futures - very accurate indeed! Thank you. I wonder indeed if July silver can reach $42 sooner than later. Silver doesn't seem to be caring about the strength in dollar at all other than minor short-lived sell-offs only to turn up right back.

  19. @Dani

    A very good intro to options is Chris Rowe's "Options Simplified". You can download it free at

  20. Thanks oldNavy

    Thias said...
    When eventually reaching 39-39.5, fighting the resistance will result in an expected pullback as read in your thread, how far down would you insider the drop to be, down to next support or is that overall impossible to guess for now?

    Good question!

  21. Turd,
    To clarify, you are trading silver futures options and not options on the silver ETF?

  22. @ turd

    Yes, we are fast approaching a high number (~$40). The last time this happened (when we were approaching $49), the EE just let it happen and then beat it down mercilessly in order to forestall Armageddon, to scare the living daylights out of many, to put the brakes on silver, and to inflict psychological damage on the charts.

    What has changed since then? Not much in terms of the fundamentals. Not much from the Morgue's side of the fence either. I would venture to guess that their hammer will come down again, perhaps some time soon.

    It scares me when the price rises quickly without (what appears to me) any meaningful resistance. I hope this unfettered increase is not the prelude to another huge smack down late in the hours of Friday. More importantly, I hope if/when it happens, that everybody has learned from the last time this happened; that is to say, that the market shrugs it off quickly, even though Mr. Bart doesn't give a hoot about price suppression.

    Read my article about this here:

  23. @TURD

    first off I want to say you rock!.. Im getting into the options game myself. As im trying to turn some fiat into phyzz. picked up a good amount in the 33-34 lows just as you predicted. When purchasing silver calls, what stocks are you buying? SLW, PSLV are ones i've heard being thrown around. what should I be looking for? And to what Dani said how can you sell july 45's if silver is trading lower than that strike price? (sorry for being such a boob);)

  24. @silberblick,

    I have the same gut feelin. we've reached almost 38$ too fast and without gold's suport

  25. Holy HFT, Batman... look at that shit between 5 and 6. What I don't get is what the point of it is. Do they benefit from the volatility somehow?

  26. Fantastic comments. Perfect.

    You are the DUDE of all DUDES.

    Can Gratitude say Thank You any more than I feel.

    I am learning so fast. Fortunately I do not have an account and will not trade for some time yet. But my learning curve is going up.

    What do you say about trading silver stock options instead of silver commodity options. I am thinking of options on SLV or maybe better is AGQ which seems to be a double leveraged silver. or maybe commodity options on smaller contracts like 1000 oz silver or 32 oz gold.

    I do not know. are there other stocks or commodity options to consider. would be nice to start small when I am ready. then play with the profit by doubling down. control the risk.

    Thanks Turd

    You are de Man

    What is your feeling about risk reward on the various types of options.

  27. If you don't know a call from a put, you have no business even considering options, unless you don't mind losing money. When you want to learn about something new, Google is always your friend. Or, here's a primer which covers the basics:

    Investopedia options info

  28. @Silverblick

    Let me take a crack at answering your question, if I may.

    There are some similarities this time, but also some important differences. In the April run up, there was a lot of hot money and weak hands piling on. The market was definitely oversold and, at almost $50, was about 171% of the 200 day MA. Over the last several years, whenever silver has reached the range of 130-165% 200DMA, it has always corrected by 15-35%. EE was standing aside watching as this transpired and knew the rally was almost out of steam and ripe for a knockdown. I believe the rally would have run another 5-6 days as Turd had suggested, but the cartel took the opportunity over the Mat Day weekend when trading was at its thinnest to give it a good push, and down it went.

    What's different this time. The weak hands and hot money are not a big factor. The market is rallying again on fundamentals. At $42 we will be at roughly $135% 200DMA, just at the low end of the normal correction range. Not nearly as oversold as in late April.

    After this rally peaks, we may enter the normal summer doldrums until the end of AUG. I would not be surprised, however, to see another rally start right away, there is too much worldwide demand and with the new China exchanges ramping up, maybe the paradigm is changing.

    That's my .02

  29. Turd, don't forget to include the price of each option purchased and sold in the profitability of your call spread. It may clarify the equations for people who have questions.

  30. @Sockeye
    I have a forex account which allows me to trade currencies and precious metals at spot price.
    You can start with as little as $100 with some brokers.

  31. This comment has been removed by the author.

  32. @gypsytree,
    A Call means an option. Turd is buying options on the 5000 oz silver contract.
    There are links on this blog to options terminology. Please don't ask Turd to teach you ABC's.
    But if you will do your homework, a lot of people on this site will help you, but do your homework first.

  33. @uncommon,
    turd is trading options on the futures contracts. The full contracts of 5000 ozs each, hence $5000 for every $1 move. You could do this with the mini-futures or on a smaller scale an option on 100 shares of SLV.
    Hope that helps!

  34. i think today jpm was playing the long side. why do i say this? no waterfalls...just as they crushed the long specs, i believe they will now try to crush the short specs.

    keep in mind this may not be keeping in picture with the whole scenario that turd has laid out & i'm not sayin i am right. but for their purposes, it makes more sense to wash out short specs now just like they did before and then rinse and repeat.

    they are churning specs and all the while silver is being deposited into their SLV

  35. Bankster's hierarchy of needs. Cute.

    how do I do a hyperlink next time instead of cut and paste?

  36. Thanks for example, I'm new to this and those are a great help.

  37. @sp,

    I agree, looks like they "joined" BoS. It feels real strange, i can't explain, just this feelin:) Maybe they want to prevent chinese of acumulating cheap silver for their HKMEx ?!

  38. @Marcus

    Here's the format (Where I put a "[" you put a less than symbol, where I put a "]" you put a greater than symbol:

    [a href="URL of the Web page to go to"]Text that will be the link[/a]

    Here's an example:


  39. @Marcus

    I don't think there's a direct "copy the whole link" function, at least not in Explorer

    Oh, and I believe the chart was done by Banzai7 at ZH, he was a little pissed at his stuff being used to pimp silvergolds blog without attribution.

  40. Silver PL update caa 26 May 11.

    PL legend and previous update

  41. @Marcus,

    You can also hover over the link "Bacon", right click and then select "inspect element" it will show the string written exactly as is required.

  42. I've found a recent pdf by NIA (yeah, I know I shouldn't trust them) where they explain how options work:

    Hope it can help some of the other noobs like me.

  43. How to link. Just copy this exactly. When you type it in it will make a link. It doesn't link when I type it in because I use magic:

    <a href="">look at my nifty link!</a>

    Replace with your actual link. Don't forget the quotes. You can put whatever you want as link text instead of "look at my nifty link!" but it is more helpful if you just put the actual link in there so we know if you're trying to Rick Roll us.

  44. Just a FYI: Options expire tomorrow so it could provide a good buying opportunity for those of us who missed the boat....

  45. There is no buying opportunity. We're going straight to 40 by Thursday night. Elevator theory? At that point you've got to pray for selling to come in that takes us down to 34-35 to set up and inverted head and shoulders on the daily chart.

    I know I'm relatively new and I have a rep as a trouble maker, so I guess I can't say I'm surprised that my words get no respect.

  46. Turd,
    you have indeed had an excellent week of calls! Silver is playing out just as you predicted on the 18th.
    I even got back into oil at 99 with some help from your guidance.

  47. This comment has been removed by the author.

  48. @Turd

    Thanks for inspiring that confidence necessary to buy at the bottom.
    Your amazingly talented, smart and selfless and your current PM site IS absolutely AWESOME.

    Can't wait to see what you've been working on all this time.
    I'm prepared to be even 'more amazed' if that is even possible.

    ROCK ON!!!

  49. Extracted from last night's (for me) Bill Downey's intra-day Silver update:

    Going to the Charts:

    Price pushed up to the 36.50 area on Tuesday --- and after spending a few sessions in that area --- Wednesday's push towards 37.50 has continued to show strength in silver. The next chart area of importance is the 38.30-39.10 area where the 38% retrace area (39.03) and the next resistance line extends (38.30).

    With the metals making new highs on mid week Wednesday --- there is a potential that prices peak today and consolidate into Thursday and potentiall Friday morning. On Thursday we have initial jobless claims, US preliminary GDP --- and a slew on Friday with Japan CPI and Retail Sales, German CPI, and US Core Price Index, Personal spending and Income, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, inflation expectations and US pending home sales.

    For the moment == the short term trends are up and as long as gold remains above 36 on a closing basis the trend should continue. Our best take is a peak today ---- and some type of pullback or consolidation --- in the 36-36.50 area as we approach the weekend. Upside should be the 37.60- 38.30 area over the next 24 hours.

  50. @TF
    I second Turdle, great calls this week and last. Really quite exceptional.

  51. Oh, and by "straight to 40" I mean 39+. The last top is 39.46 after all.

  52. Ok, so I'm trying to figure out as much as I can here on options, so help me out.
    If you buy, say, a July $40 silver call for whatever amount, you do not have to hold it until expiration day to collect, right? I understand the longer you hold it and the higher the price of silver goes, the more beneficial it is to you, but let's say you want to collect whatever profit is amassed, you can sell, right?

    Now, that's not the case if you issue calls against your call, as Turd has said he's done on his $40 July's, right?

    Also, can you buy calls and puts on mini silver and gold futures?

    And I know everyone wants another day like today on silver tomorrow but as it's options expiry, what are the thoughts on market direction?

  53. @Xiritas

    Dude, my bad - now I see why you didn't include it - DOH!

  54. Blasting through $38 with big help from EUR/USD. Trader Dan made excellent comments today (Investors looking to the Fed for stimulus again?) and it looks like he's right. TD and TF - what a team!

  55. Oil also through Turd's key 101.50 level. Risk trades are back on.

  56. Bye bye $38.

    Nowthen, when to buy ZSL?

  57. @ Dr. Durden

    Why not at Turds intermediate tops 42 and 43? They seem pretty good ZSL points for me to enter.


  58. @DR

    Maybe you were joking, but if you weren't: Buy ZSL at 49 4 weeks ago. Now it will just break your heart. Stay away and don't follow those who are shorting AGQ.

  59. thanks kiwiquest0- appreciate it

  60. >> I know I'm relatively new and I have a rep as a trouble maker, so I guess I can't say I'm surprised that my words get no respect.

    Groupies are a dime a dozen. You speak your mind, not a trouble maker.

    Not that it means a fiddler's damn, but I pay attention to your calls, more than most.

  61. @LevelHeaded

    Shoot, with the wierdness happening these days, no EE attacks, cats marrying dogs, etc. maybe we see 39 1/2 overnight.... with only JoeKa to celebrate the event.... ;-)

    And yeah, I agree that 42-43 is the place to pick up ZSL, and ride that puppy back down to the summer doldrums (or at least until we hear Ben's printing press warming up). I'm becoming more of a fan of riding the trend from bottom to top (or vice versa), I'm sleeping a lot better.

  62. @Broke

    Thanks Boss. I love this blog but have learned that it can be a lonely place unless you are loved by the masses (or idolized). I'm still posting and trying to help though.

  63. Willie,

    You can close options positions at any point in time. If you buy a call you can sell it and if you sell a call you can buy it back to close. The only time you'd actually hold a call until expiration is if you wanted to exercise it or if it was worthless (i.e. no bidders). If you don't buy back a call that was sold, it has to either expire out of the money in which case you keep the premium or it goes in the money and at expiration you have to produce the underlying.

    Please think about what you're doing before going this route. Options, especially out of the money options entail high leverage and you can easily blow up your account. If you can't watch a position swing 50% in a day without panicking then don't bother with out of the money options. If you decide to do it, start with a small amount of money and assume it's lost as soon as you take a position.

  64. LevelHeaded. I still love you. What would batman be without the joker? Or superman without Lex? Romeo without Jul.. wai
    Anyway, nay, stay.

  65. @brokeboater

    Yes, thanks, I've been known to "batir la cuacha, (Stir up the chicken shit) on festive occasions. Sometimes it just cries out to be stired. That said I try to add more than I take to this blog because it's sucu a special one.

    Huxley Ann

  66. Cats are marryin dogs?? Sheesh.
    Call an inquiry, call the SPCA.
    Do something dammit!
    Oh for the love of furballs and furkids...

  67. does anybody make money at this game ? I need to make some dough desperately

  68. & men are marrying men.

    Well we've started off (our) late afternoon slightly green. JoeKa see if you can keep that going. Wouldn't it be beautiful to see five consecutive green trading days? Then if we get to 42/43 we can slide down the ZSL pole together.

    Huxley Ann

  69. @jiminpol

    I do but it's in my IRA trading accounts. I'm unemployed and after my 99 weeks am considering setting up a non-tax deferred account and see if I can do as well there.

    Huxley Ann

  70. @JoeKa

    Thanks for sharing the technical info...I've never seen a market go strait up without a pullback here and there.

  71. @kiwi

    Do you live in NZ? I gather Joe KA is from Aus.

    From my point of view 42-43 is just a guess at this point. It's my understanding that TF is a man not a wizard and as such I hope everyone here doesn't get too married to 42-43 as a top.

    That may be the way it goes, which would make it a great time to buy ZSL
    1. We could top at 39-40 and set up and inverted H&S down to 35. After 40 is breached the upside target would be 47+. In this case shorting at 42 would be bad.
    2. We could also work our way back and forth (but mostly up) and go straight to about 65. This isn't without precedent. It happened in 1980. In this case shorting at 42 would be bad with a capital B.
    3. Or Non of these might happen

    My odds are on 1 or 2.

  72. @Jimmy
    I don't really want to be a nemesis...but supernemesis like the joker or lex? Now that has a ring to it.

  73. @LevelHeaded

    Look around you: there are some really top people on this blog but there are people I wouldn't pay to love or idolize me too. Egos. Attitude. Grimness. Selfrighteousness. Etc.

    So don't feel poorly if not all of the little shots don't love and idolize you.


  74. Joe's from the snot size island like a wedgie caught between Malaysia and Indonesia's asscheeks...called Singapore.

    Yeah, thats what too much coffee will do for ya. LOL

  75. @JoeKa

    Ben B. has a cure for that, I think he called it "Catatative Easing".... but it might have the side effect of Dogflation....

    @Huxley Ann

    "Well we've started off (our) late afternoon slightly green"

    I told you the guacamole salad smelled funny!

  76. @hux
    You live in AZ right? When are we going to have coffee so you can show me those astrological charts?

  77. LOL But guacamole TASTES so deliciioso, Chico!

  78. @levelheaded We live in Sonora/Arizona (own a home on both sides of the border.) Was it you who wanted the astrology stuff? I just can't see how I can cram two years of astrology into any time frame that would be helpful to you. BUT I can teach you dowsing which is just as accurate if not moreso.

    Did you get my throw-away email address? project.sanctuary AT yahoo

  79. In my house we've used the opportunity the last month has provided to increase Ag holdings by 50 ounces. As well as a 1/2 oz Krugerrand.

    All we really did was to stick to the plan. But it was great to get the price break and get more for our frns.

    Can you believe they still take paper for precious metals?

  80. @Levelheaded

    Nope, not a NZer, just a big fan of the country... but I stay up too damn late, so it seems like I'm in the Pacific zone.... :-P

    Regarding setting the ZSL trap, I think it will be worth it to give away some at the top to make sure a downtrend is actually happening...that's my plan, anyway.... and if things look totally choppy I may just do the daytrading thing and not try to catch a long descent.

    And regarding being loved or not, the wonderful thing about the blog is that the quality of what you say and how you say it will attract or repel others..... but it takes time... as I mentioned, we used to think afrum was mental, and now he's a beloved part of the forum.

  81. Huxley Ann:
    Could you explain? I thought you couldn't buy and sell options in an IRA account.

  82. @hux
    Ok now wait a second, is there any scientific validity to dowsing? Man I feel like such a skeptic.

    I was about to say we were getting off topic but this may be useful to those who are buying land and want a well.

  83. @Kiwi: I'm impartial to "colonic easing".

    I wonder if they're the same thing?

    Dogs, cats, snot, guacamole...?
    WTF is goin on around here??

    And why am I so amped!?
    I need a shower.

  84. said...
    I think he called it "Catatative Easing".... but it might have the side effect of Dogflation...

    I have made some inexcusable puns in my lifetime, but that was pawful.

  85. @Levelheaded

    Dowsers dowse EVERYTHING ... wells, oil tanks, cats in rafters, strawberries in their cornflakes...

    I work in the neuromedical area, and it is pretty amazing the stuff our nervous system can do while our brain has no idea... so dowsing may just tap into inner abilities we can't access conciously.

  86. @pastense

    Well, I thought I could only sell covered call options (i.e. on stocks I physically held in my account.) But I'm finding out on this blog after decades of trading my IRA that there are other types of options that are acceptable for IRAs. Margin is not acceptable nor are naked calls.

    I'm not sure what all I can sell / buy in terms of options in my (Scottrade) IRA but probably don't want or need more than covered calls.


    Hus ------------> off selling a computer

  87. @Kurt,

    I stopped trading futures after the May 1st massacre because of the following fear. At that time, I was long silver spot at my FX account and got caught, but was able to close at stop. I trade futures/options thru interactivebrokers, where futures/options trading usually start around 7-8PM EST on Sunday night, and am wondering what would happen if I held a silver futures position at that time. Say, if I set a stop at $46 for my silver futures, would it be sold at a price close to $46 automatically at 6:10PM or will it wait until 8PM and trigger the sell stop at the bottom price of $42 at that time(which is the loss of at least 6*5000 = $30K per contract)?
    This fear is the very reason why I much prefer options to futures, i.e. getting hit and not being able to close the position at a stop I set during overnight/weekend. Would this problem be specific to my broker account or generic to metal futures market?

  88. @JoeKa

    I refuse to be serious, I made a boatload of cash today, feels good after the MayDay beatdown.


    I won't even try, you win!


    I've used up enough bandwidth for the moment, I'm going to sit and be quiet now!

  89. Shit, Silver on fire tonight. Where should i be placing my limit-buys before going to bed?

  90. @levelheaded

    All I can tell you is take it for checking. How much hard science stands behind TA?


    @ Kiwi ISN"T afrum mental? God damn, that's why I love him so much


  91. 38.19 and I'm still holding.

  92. Check out ZH for explanation of EUR spike, and subsequent spike in commodities and risk FX like AUD/JPY. All good for silver and gold.

  93. If someone says "a penny for your thoughts", and you give them your two cents worth, where does the extra penny go?

  94. Silver to hit $40.00 by COB this Friday. My 20 cents worth..........

  95. @ steve,
    my first the bankstas.

  96. Anyone else think that the BoS caused the May meltdown?

  97. No, because I don't think they own the COMEX vis-a-vis margin increase decisions

  98. Regarding bull spreads on silver (whether futes, or equity options):

    Especially for PM which can go ballistic at any time.

    If Turd buys say the July 40 and sells the July 45 he has a nice relevant growth position (ie--it is not as likely that silver goes above 45 in the next month.

    However, if something does happen and silver goes ballistic it is probably not stopping at 45 or even 50--so how do you "protect" against that? Simple--just buy a cheaper 47 (or 48 call)

    You can also do this the other way-buy bear spreads just in case we get a May 1 redo (not too likely IMO--its worked once-going back to the well again would raise too much attention-but not to fear, they have other strategies on their hard drives).

    and this works on miners too.

    Meanwhile, with all the manipulation if you have been in PM for a year or more you should be sitting pretty even using buy and hold.

    And a conditioned response is BTFD even if its one of the 10 minute dips and by using options you can scalp nice profits (thanks cartel and black box hedgies)

  99. You don't think the EE plays both sides? Remember, they have destroy the existing order and be in a position to create the new one.

  100. If you are saying that the EE can sometimes take a role as a BoS, then yes.

  101. Got another idea on options (lets focus on equity options)

    Buy the September or October ITM(in the money) options -which do not decay as fast until the last month--and sell the next month option (June or July equity option) out of the money OTM) which unless silver goes nutso upside will decay real fast--

    I like this since I can recoup my true premium on the longer term options by selling the nearer term options. Premium decay for a long is a killer, great for a short (hence the covered call strategy).

    Best way to learn? After reading books or whatever, is to do them in small scale and learn lessons (sometimes expensive lessons but you do retain the education that way)

  102. @Jimmy
    Wish I had a good answer for you on a buy point. Problem is there aren't any good buy points. We're probably going to go to 39+. Call it a buck and a half up from here before we get tested. The down side is probably 35. 3 bucks lower. That's 2-1 to the bad.

    On the other hand you want to catch an elevator bacuse the last thing you want to do is go nuts at 39 and then get flushed.

    If I were you, I would buy 25% of what I wanted and hope it goes down. Maybe buy at 38.10 but don't go so low that you miss. Also, there's GDP (2nd rev so not that big) and Labor tomorrow at 8:30 ET. This always creates the possibility of big moves one way or the other (and sometimes in both directions-nasty).

    You'll probably look back at this buy and consider it cheap. Just don't overload at this point and do expect to be down on the trade for a short time. We're kind of in no mans land.

  103. This comment has been removed by the author.

  104. Options can seem complex and it seems some people like to make them sound complex, but essentially they are fairly simple. Chris Rowe has a 65 page primer that explains the fundamentals in an easy to understand way that I really like. Download it at

  105. That last post was @Wille Lee BTW

  106. Hitting the sack early, have to be up at 5 for the 5:30 AZ time Labor report. good luck all.

    RIP Mark

  107. @torpedo

    actually i don't think jp cares whether silver is up or down. they are concerned with washing out the speculators and (my guess) accumulating physical.

  108. Another interesting day, shaping up to be an even more interesting night.

    So the Euro zooms on the idea that china will buy some euro bonds, uhhhh, ok. Seems to me they have been buying them for years, but what do I know.

    So I guess it must mean that China is going to bail out all of the PIIGS now? I don't think so, but happy to go along with the game.

    POSX knocked well down close to 75.50 (it was at 76.50 and heading higher on last night's rumour, lol) so that should be very good for PMs and stocks tonight and tomorrow.

    Big question of course will be the numbers tomorrow. if they are even slightly positive you have to figure stocks and PMs will rally massively.

    At which point I will take a hard look at shorting the euro (at 1.44 for sure, but doubt we'll see it so soon) and stocks too.

    Maybe, just maybe I will take a tiny short position in silver if it's around $42, but not lower than that.

    It's been years since I have seen markets this entertaining and fun (but definitely not easy) to trade.

    Hope everyone is enjoying the volatility, there will come a time when absolutely nothing happens for days, and we'll all be wishing for the good 'ol days.

  109. Does anyone have a good link or recommend a book on technical chart reading? I've only been learning snippets here and there and would like to dive in and learn this stuff the right was so I don't feel like such a tard when I'm day trading futures ;)

  110. @BGnight: couldn't you find anything on Traders Library?

  111. Hey Joker. Thanks man. Fortunately im not flat, just got too much dry's all.

    Guess i'll sit tight. No reason to go crazy this close to target. Thanks.

  112. Oh, as for options, I've just been doing long calls on SIVR and GLD. (Don't understand spreads and selling calls yet) I haven't opened my futures portion of my optionsxpress account so haven't looked at actual futures options. Are these typically a lot more expensive? (I can't look without having the acct activated...weird) The ETF's seem to do the job though as they track the metals pretty darn closely. Anyone recommend SLV over SIVR or IAU over GLD for any reasons...general thoughts for a noob?

    Turd rules! (I plan on making a donation once I get back in the green from the Sunday night massacre)

  113. JoeKa -

    I have that bookmarked but today all the links stopped working. They all say access denied in Russian, lol.

  114. @Jimmy: buying at these levels is not wise. Even I had to restrain myself. Just take it as a lesson to cultivate more patience. I have some paper in play but not nearly enough.

    All the best and goodnight.

  115. @BGnight: hey you're right! Pesky Ruskies.
    Remind me to spend a whole day downloading each and every file if it ever comes back online again.

    I'm cheap that way. :P

  116. Patience. oh thou cruel mistress. I require thine virtue, but you taunt me with thy visage of moments past at every upswing.

  117. re: Options (really long post, intended for options newbies only)

    I have been trading options on and off for 25 years, and yet I still feel I learn something new about them just about every time I take a position.

    Options are quite simple on the surface, but you will discover there are a lot of nuances that are hard to explain that will make every position a learning experience.

    Even simple strategies like writing covered calls in reality have big downsides (you take all the risk of owning a stock but give up the big upside which eventually happens, and if it doesn't you shouldn't own the stock).

    The one key lesson I have learned about options is: There is no free lunch.

    I am forever hearing these option strategy guys on TV talking about these amazing straddles and stuff like that, and they sound too good to be true, because they generally are.

    In their 1 minute presentation they never have time to cover all the subtleties, the spreads you pay, the margin requirements, the tying your hands to a position, the need to have capital to exercise one side of the trade if the other side is going to call your stock away, etc etc.

    Having said that, I love options, especially selling them, and right now I have a position on a security that I really like, which I will explain in another post.

    But I only got this position by putting on one side of the trade at a time, as the spreads on this illiquid security are huge.

    Which brings me to my other important rule about options, which may seem obvious, but really isn't:

    You have to get the direction right.

    No sense buying calls on something, no matter how cheap, if the thing doesn't go up in value, and fast. Time value will kill you.

    Options often appeal as they seem a good way to get out of a bad position, or to get in cheap.

    For example, SDS was trading at 21, and I was thinking, damn, I can sell some June 21 puts for $.95, meaning if they get exercised I get long SDS at 20.05, and if not, I pocket the $950 on 10 contracts.

    Sounds great huh?

    Problem is, selling puts on a security that has just moved up from 20 to 21 is probably a bad idea.

    The time to sell puts on SDS is when SDS is at 20, not 21.

    If i had sold that put, now SDS is trading at 20.50 say, and I am going to own SDS at 21, and now I may or may not make much money on this at all, but can't buy the put back except at a pretty big % loss, and so i am stuck holding it until expiry, which ties my capital up as I will have to have enough to buy the security at expiry.

    And that's a simple explanation of a simple strategy.

    Anyway, that's a long post, apologies, but newbies here talking about options would be well advised to think long and hard before playing this game.

    The suggestion by someone to play small positions until you learn is the best advice you will ever get, because believe me, you will need years to learn all the subtleties of options.

    Good luck, it's a fun game, especially when markets are otherwise dull.

  118. I have been interested in the decidedly non-linear changes in option pricing for July SLV options for a while (though suspect this is an attribute of near-term OTM options in general).

    The price level of underlying is NOT a good solitary indicator of options pricing. The direction and speed of price movement that brought the underlying to that point is also critical, often with large variations in either direction.

    All in at this point, with some (less than perfectly timed purchases of) JUL 45 & 48 calls. Made good coin in first few days of May with puts -- but poor timing and lack of dry powder (plus being scared shitless after being caught with OTM calls on May 1) lessened impact. Did OK on the shorter spike to 39, but again often bought too late and sold too soon.

    This time I had some underwater calls (again, poor buy-timing) going into the increase on Tuesday -- but sold too soon, and did not trust the price movement not to stall, so did not re-buy until today.

    Sigh... All of this has been avoidable and I AM improving, but I too wish I'd spent the time the day the Trader's Library was made available to download before the ZH hordes likely forced the admin to remove the files from download.

  119. There she goes again!

  120. hey guys thanks for taking the time throughout the night to teach some of us suggestions and the suggested how to's-- I for one REALLY APPRECIATE IT--Thanks!

  121. was anyone able to download the traders library and is there a way to still share it with us?

  122. Turd, thanks for the example & explanation. I was able to follow pretty well ... so you make no money if the price is below 40, make money in proportion to the silver price if it stays in the range 40-45, and make maximum money for any silver price 45 and above. cool.

    I think about options now and again, but I'm still too chicken. Don't like the idea of leverage, but maybe someday, who knows?

    thanks again!

  123. Is it just me shaking my head in incredulity at the $38.475 on silver? At this rate, we will have hit $40 and already crashed back to support by Fri night..

  124. @ FreeBoundary - I sold once after hours and had no problem w/my broker. I can enter or sell at any time. Software is kind of shitty but I took the free version.

    - on another note, anyone use trading software like NinjaTrade or stuff like that? Did not seem worth the $ esp. since I started with a less trader mindset and was following a newsletter (which I still follow but mostly for stocks).

    - I am going to admit I did something VERY stupid today and lost some $$ - I bought what looked like cheap options for gold, only they were for June gold, and when I looked at expiry looked at the futures not the options expiry, so they were cheap because they expired today. Another expensive lesson. Lucky for me the overall market is strong enough (and turd too) that that was just a minor loss compared to the gains I made today. It shows you how easy it is to be a noob - it was a total noob dumb a** move.

    @JoeKa - How is it to live in Singapore? I may need to leave the US of A some day, if things go south enough. I think we will get through the bad times, but it is not certain.

    Ok can't post again - maybe stupid IE 9? Trying chrome - cya soon I hope

  125. The thing that stuns me is the GSR. It just dived back down to under 40 again...and suddenly Gold is no longer the leader? Why? What caused this? More buyers back in the market?

    To me, this is strange. I'm not doubting the calls by anyone...just the way things are playing out all of a sudden.

  126. Yeah, silver is like WEEEEEE and gold is like meh. Didn't gold get the memo or what's up?

  127. Ok, so now that Chrome works - I like the futures positions because they are more "pure" to me. I did not buy at the bottom but I got in at $34.96 a full contract for July Silver. Now we are over $38.43 - so with 5,000 oz that gives me a nice profit of $17,350. You notice how BIG the moves can be - scary - I am glad I have some guidance with TF.

    So we are still on the ride for $40+ or do I put in a stop at some point to seal in profits? For now I hold...

    also have 2 positions in gold at TFs spot - $1490's - one long term (Oct) and another short (June) + some Oil (Sept) and for some crazy reason I can talk about some other time, a Yen contract for Sept (was up, now down, but it is fairly stable).

    so far despite setbacks the futures have been good to me.

  128. Somehow, I've managed to miss this spike even though I've been following Turd's messages very closely. I never thought silver would soar this high this fast in just a couple days. Very bummed about missing out on this run and profit, and I've been tempted to buy all day, but still couldn't pull the trigger and I've been regretting this every minute. I'm just in a really indecisive state right now guys which isn't surprising to me I guess as a new trader, but even so I've been kicking myself big time for not buying in as soon as Tuesday morning when the Canadian market opened just after the Monday holiday.

    I'm thinking I should just give in and take a small position at least in the morning if overnight it continues to stay around the low 38s... But I guess from reading the posts and consensus around here that we are soon approaching the resistance test level of 39-40, and that I should probably hold off from jumping on the train? And perhaps get ready to short on notice?

    I'm just so disappointed that I didn't get in on this when it seemed so obvious when I should have, and now I"m uncertain of everything and doing anything.

    Thanks for reading the struggles of a noob.........

  129. Check this out. Court ordered debt. Hyperinflation is mandated by constitutional law apparently. Man, are we in the right boat or what?

    Tuesday, May 24, 2011

    Public spending deemed a constitution right in NJ. QE cannot stop because the system is utterly dependent on it. The late run in gold and silver suggests the market understands this reality.

    Headline: Court Orders New Jersey to Increase Aid to Schools

    The New Jersey Supreme Court ordered the Christie administration on Tuesday to increase state education aid by $500 million in the coming school year, saying it had failed to meet its constitutional obligation to provide adequate educational resources for poor and minority children.

    In a 3-to-2 ruling, the court directed that the additional aid be distributed among 31 school districts in historically poor cities like Camden, Newark and Paterson — the so-called Abbott districts at the heart of a school financing case, Abbott v. Burke, that has roiled state officials and courts for three decades.

    source: nytimes

  130. Thanks to all for the clarifications. I know options are serious business, so I've been practicing on the Lind-Waldock Sim-trade thing.

    I'm holding one Aug 1550 gold call and one July Crude 103 call, just to see how the numbers line up in accordance with what Turd's been saying. Trying to get a handle before trying it for real.

    And I agree starting small is the way to go. ATM, I only have a Schwab brokerage account with no margin, so I can't do long calls or puts on anything, just covered, which, as I see it, is a waste of time and resources. So, being cautious, and asking for help before there's money on the line.

    Thanks again.

  131. H4 RSI now at 82.4! Gulp :\

  132. Options example for newbies only.

    I used this strategy on an ETF, so it would be a similar strategy that you might use on a silver or gold ETF.

    This ETF is not leveraged, so it's not volatile at all, and I decided to buy some calls on it when it dipped last monday to about 6 month lows.

    The ETF was trading at $101.50

    I looked at all the nearby June call options.

    104 strikes would have cost me only $0.40, but chances of it going that far in 4 weeks are slim.

    101 strikes were $1.50, meaning I would be long the ETF at 102.50 (101 + 1.50). Too expensive.

    100 strikes were $2.00, so I would be long at $102, not bad, but I wanted better.

    98 strikes were at $3.70, so my all in would be just $101.70, pretty close to the current underlying price.

    Of course the downside is I have to put up $370 for each contract, instead of $200 if I bought the 100 strikes. But well worth it to me to pay the extra now, as I hope to regain it all later, and a 50 cent move in the underlying ETF is all I am looking for anyway.

    So I bought 10 call contracts at 3.70, total cost $3,700 plus $20 commission.

    The next day the ETF moved up a bit to 101.70, and I started to think I might like to hedge my position, and I always prefer selling options anyway, so I decided to sell some calls against it.

    I decided to sell 102 June calls at $.90, or $900 for 10 contracts, less $20 commission.
    So Now I am out of pocket just $2,800.

    If the ETF goes above 102 eventually the call will be exercised and I will have to sell 1000 units of the ETF at 102.

    That means I must exercise my 98 calls and buy the ETF at $98.

    So I gain $4,000 on that transaction and it cost me $2,800, so a $1,200 gain on a $2,800 investment in 4 weeks, not too shabby.

    If the ETF stays below 102 I get to keep the $900 for the call I sold that expired worthless, and then my gain will be that $900 plus whatever I am up on the ETF above my $101.70 all in cost.

    In other words, I would be long the ETF at $100.80 ($98 plus $3.70 less $0.90) and as long as it is trading above that price, I win.

    If the ETF is below $100.80 I lose.

    Which is why it is key to want to own the underlying security, which in this case I do.

    So it's pretty close to no lose for me. I either get the ETF $900 cheaper than it currently trades (already at 6 month lows), or I make $1,200.

    Downside: Very likely at expiry I will need to have $98,000 in my account to exercise my call and thereby have the stock in my account that will be called away from me at $102.

    Of course near expiry I could just sell my 98 calls and buy the 102 calls, but the spreads are ugly and I don't want to give away $300 profit to do that.

    Hope that might help some newbies out deciding whether they want to go through this or not.

    One last bit of advice. I don't use options trading software or anything. I use a pencil and paper and I write down the 3 possible scenarios (ETF goes up, down or sideways) and see how each works out. Keep it simple.

  133. I am going to open up a position in ZSL once we hit the dead cat bounce high of 39.45. . . we are due for consolidation.

  134. Where do you see the consol range at?

  135. I would call 38 a good price down from 39.45, possible down to 37.35, daily MACD for July is now in the negative, this thing seems to be slowing down.

  136. The daily volume seems to agree with you.
    It's dropped off considerably.

  137. I'm reading a couple of misinterpretations of todays blog. I think what Turd explicitly meant to say (or thought was implied) in points 11-13 are as follows:

    11) My upside gain potential is now capped. I'll make the same amount of money now if silver closes upon expiration at 45.01, 55.01 or 65.01. It doesn't matter. The most I can make is:
    $5000/point X 5 points X 2 contracts = $50,000 total

    My addition: If silver closes at exactly $45 the $45 call options still expire worthless and the profit is capped at $50,000 + $10,000 from the sale of the $45 call options for a grand total of $60,000. If silver looks like it is going to close at $46 the Turd will have to buy to close his $45 calls at a cost of $10,000 but his $40 calls will be worth $60,000, so when he sells to close those, his net profit will be $60,000 - $10,000 = $50,000, the same goes for any price above $46.

    12) IF silver retreats and closes upon expiry below $40, all of my calls are worthless but I get to keep the $10,000 I received when selling the $45s.

    My addition: Nothing, this point is clear.

    13) IF silver closes upon expiry at $43, the $45s are worthless but the $40s are worth $15,000 each.
    $5000/point X 3 points X 2 contracts = $30,000 total

    My addition: The $45 calls are worthless in that the Turd doesn't have to worry about closing them, but he still retains the original $10,000 from their sale bringing is net profit to $30,000 + $10,000 = $40,000.

    Sorry in advance if this is wrong, it might be too late for my brain.

  138. yep, STOCHRSI(14) is pegged and RSI(14) is dropping, but from a pure guess, I have not verified, but it seems there were many positions that were short around 35 as the mass media was humming about 32 and 28 and so on, I was short at 35 but closed out my positions at a profit, better lucky than good, cheers. Even though I short, I am def long in the long term on anything priced in the dollar.

  139. @Kurt,
    Thanks for quick response to my question. Mind if I ask you which broker you use? I am also able to buy/sell futures at IB except the blackout time: 6-8PM on Sunday night. Mind checking if you are able to trade at this time later? Much appreciated.

    huanhuaca made good point about option. Do you know Taleb was quantitative option trader before? He lost big and hasn’t gained much respect as a option trader among quant traders. His favored counterpart Niderhoff blew few times with put options. Merton and Scholes, two authors of Black-Scholes theory were principals of Long term capital, the firm responsible for financial meltdown late 90’. Moral is that being sophisticated in option stuff doesn’t really give any edge in trading. Know the underlying market is the key to survival at the end.

  140. I don't want to deprive you all of my valuable insight, so here it is:

    Silver is on friggin' fire.

  141. Titus,
    yes, latecomers can safely not bother reading the previous 147 comments, because you have said it all!

  142. Our fearless leader said:
    "Silver is now being quickly drawn toward $39.50."

    How right he was!

  143. Mmmmm... smells like roasted bear in here!

  144. The beauty of the silver decline is that when it reverses, there is no technical resistance of significance back to the $50 level. However, due to the shock effect, the climb will be slower than a sudden technical mirror image reversal. The precious metals investors should hope for a slow steady relentless painful nasty stubborn awesome devastating rise in price, which permits once again for the less enlightened doubters to cover their wrong short positions in a chronic manner.

  145. @FreeB

    In grad school 25 years ago I vaguely recall reading the original Black-Scholes paper on options pricing, and I think I even understood it.

    But after many years trading, I at times became very disillusioned with options, mainly due to liquidity issues and bid ask spreads.

    So I gave up trading them for years.

    But now and again I get back in, and I find the KISS principle applies more than ever.

    The more layers of buying, selling, hedging, rolling over, etc that you do, the more the costs pile up and the more your hands get tied.

    Given just the right opportunity though, which requires a ton of patience, near perfect timing and constant searching, options can work really well.

    In general though, as long as you have the capital, just buying the security outright is better.

  146. humahuaca

    there is lot one can take from your comments, thanks for your effort

  147. Turd I thought your options explanation was great. The only thing I think you left out and that no one else here tonight has addressed is the actual cost of the options themselves, as that should be subtracted from your gross profit. If you buy two options that might cost 5k each and those options make you a profit of 50k, you are really only left with 40k profit minus your initial investment(or whatever they actually cost I just threw out 5k for easy math)

    @Huxley Ann I would also like to know more about dowsing, can I use itto find gold and silver? A good friend of mine has some property directly downstream from an actual operational gold mine. There is quartz everywhere and I know there must be some of the sweet stuff around, but how to get it...

  148. whats up with this silver thing right now?
    two hour beat down, 1h+ indicators are finally moving down, they always will right ?

    but how far go we go?
    38 would be better support than 37.5

    equities and eur green so no worries so far

    only gold is stuck

  149. Did we just start a down trend again?

  150. Well nothing else is happening elsewhere except Gold and Silver (Silver particularly). Probably some traders taking some money of the table after a steep rise.
    Should resume up again shortly.
    Lotsa economic news coming out today and tomo though.

  151. Maybe this is the battle around 38 that Turd had expected.

    Needed London to wake up for it to start.

  152. Oh wait. WTI Crude is taking a short dive.

  153. and there we go... ! I bought some a 38.47... think I might buy more!

  154. oopsie

    will 37.5 hold? good entry point for those who missed first elevator

  155. Wow. My trade platforms have all gone full retard. Can't even log on or trade!

  156. typical... as soon as I start betting larger amounts, it drops!

    Twitchy bottom...

  157. XAG bulls

  158. So many red candles. What is the cause of this? Teatime in London again Titus?

  159. whoa, stop the bus

  160. hopefully they have now taken out all the stops and we can start to clib again..

  161. Petr.. if it bounces back over 37, I'll top up...

  162. I just nibbled long on two July contracts.

  163. looks like they are trying to paint a repeat of 2 weeks ago?

  164. and now it needs to stay there! 37.00....

  165. mother fucker. i just got raped with a knife. any words of consolation?

  166. tomo, me too buddy. Me too

  167. What we just saw was totally artificial.

  168. @Tomo... sorry to hear, I'm 5k worse off than I was this morning, staring at 38.8 wondering if I should sell, knowing it would drop but never expected this!

    I took some profits along the way up.. never calling it right, but hey..

    Currently averaging at 37.54, I've got room for it to fall to 35 before I'm in trouble.. not where I wanted to be.

    I'm riding this out.

    it will always go back up!! Have faith..

  169. I closed with small loss

    one cant leave for a minute, 37.5 fell too fast

    now waiting for 37+

  170. it looks like its not over. was dozing off and didn't cloze my trades at 38+. put sum in at 37.5 too so getting killed right now

  171. Tried to buy into 36.25 support, but market orders were blocked (again) on my platform, just like MayDayMassacre. Of course it's all fine now, but a bit too pricey. Expect more bloodshed when COMEX and NYSE open as long stops are run there too, assuming we stay under 37.50 or so rest of early morning.

    I've been flat since 37.50 yesterday. You guys have got to remember that it always comes down faster than it goes up, and it's been going up pretty fast the last several days. Hang loose and buy dips, it'll go back up..eventually.

    I'm targeting 35.50 area for some serious buying near news points today. We'll be visiting these higher numbers again, but some of the froth needed to shake out.

  172. My stop got hit at 36.50. Unbelievable!

  173. Sorry to see you got smacked, look at the enormous volume during those 5 mins - amazing how blatent they are now.

    Im back in at £36.80 looking for the bounce hopefully

  174. Oh I missed the waterfall. Ok next time.

  175. silver is bullish ST while above 35.76

  176. its all over the place, jumping 10c a time...

  177. 35.5!?!?!? fuck me. i hope not

  178. These smack downs have the feel of being caught with you hand in the cookie jar, slap on the wrist then back at it when "Mother" isnt looking - FUBM!

  179. I went from holding a meagre 1 XAG contract to 20 contracts now! LOL

    Now averaging 36.595

    Am thinking of offloading a small percentage in a couple of hours before the COMEX open.

  180. I wonder are they triggering high volatility with this action, and prompting a margin hike?

  181. Gold held decently and now climbing back. Was this a small washout before more large upswings?

  182. WTI Crude took big ride down to $100. Now looking for support there. Some indecision candles right now at $100.86

  183. Asians buyers are smiling now.

  184. FYI that low in Silver came in at 36.264

  185. @tomo
    If 35.5 scares you just sell into the next rally when 5min RSI hits 60. You'll be glad you did.

    You can live to see another day, and/or buy back in lower and the bump up with help cover some losses.

    I'd be really surprised if there wasn't a NY pile when those guys wake up to see blood in the water. When NYSE closed at 4pm we were at 37.85. Lots of stops around 35.5 is my guess, it's where I would have put mine if I'd been long at close. New shorts will be wrong however, as the short position at this point is short-lived to tapping into high 34s at best (and unlikely). The time to put it on was at 4pm yesterday (like atlee) or at 4am (I didn't have the b@lls) at 38.30.

  186. ok, I'm getting worried now... back down to 37... but if it holds..