Sunday, May 15, 2011

An Interesting Week Ahead

OK. After 48 hours of MacBook freedom, The Turd has returned with a vengeance. Well, not really...but I have returned with a handful of interesting charts. Let's get straight to it.

First up, here's the bouncing POSX, which is currently the "tallest midget", again. (I'm sorry. I didn't mean to offend our diminutive readers such as Chairman Ben, SecTreas Timmuh and Robert Reich. Let's instead say that the dollar is currently the "most upright of the vertically-challenged.) As it certainly looks like a new intifada is beginning,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/15/us-palestinians-palestinians-idUSTRE74E1NT20110515
it's probably safe to assume that the index will trade higher overnight, eclipsing resistance at 76.06 and heading toward 76.75. This does not concern me in the least. however. It is what it is.

Now let's take a look at gold as it is going to be reaching a point of critical mass this week. Review, for a moment, this 8-hour chart. Note that the pennant formation will soon be closing. The question is: Which way will gold break when it closes? The no BS answer is that it could go either way. However, since the uptrend line dates all the way back to Turd's Bottom in January, there is a much higher likelihood of a break higher than a break lower. Let's put the odds of a break UP at 80% and a break down at 20%. IF the break is higher, our short term target should be about 1545.

Also, take a look at this chart that I lifted from Harvey's site. Trader Dan has been discussing this, too, and it's very important. We tend to only look at gold priced in US dollars. Look at the price in euro. As the price in euro makes new all-time highs this week, dollar-priced gold will likely rally, too.


Finally, this morning, I want to spend some significant time discussing silver and where it may head from here. First of all, for the short term, here's another look at the two-hour chart. We'll know very soon whether a bottom has formed or whether silver is headed to new lows for this correction.

Here's the thing, recent history would strongly suggest that silver will not head lower and that support around 33-34 will hold. Why do I say this? Well, I think you all know by now that much of my prognosticative ability is due to pattern recognition and, for the immediate future in silver, here is the pattern of which you need to be aware.
Keep in mind that the Comex continues to run extremely low on physical silver. Of this, there is no doubt. The latest data showed only 32MM ounces on hand. That's only enough silver to physically settle about 6000 contracts.
The last three "delivery" months for Comex silver were Dec10, Mar11 and May11. On the chart above, note the consistent pattern in the weeks leading up to "first notice day" of those contracts. (Again, first notice day is put-up-or-shut-up day. It's the day by which you must supply 100% margin in your account to signal your intention to actually take delivery on your contract.) Corrections came and lows were made in the early to middle weeks of the months preceding first notice day. Specifically, a corrective low was made on 10/22/10 before a rally toward the first notice day of the Dec10 contract, 11/29/10. Next, silver bottomed on 1/25/11 before rallying toward the first notice day of the Mar11, 2/28/11. Finally, silver rallied from 3/17/11 clear through first notice day for the May11 on 4/29/11.
This cycle has indicated to me for weeks that silver would peak sometime between 4/29 and 5/6 and then "correct" between 5/9 and 5/23. Also, if you look closely at the chart, notice that the pattern had been for silver to rally for about a week past first notice day. This is why I kept looking for one more run toward 50 and even 52 back during the first week of May. As you know, that didn't happen. Instead, the correction began in earnest on Monday, the 2nd, and has continued to this moment. Because the rally from 3/17 was steeper than the previous two (42% vs 26%), it follows that the "correction" has been more steep, too.

Now, here's where it begins to get even more interesting. To me, the "proper" percentage gain for a rally into first notice day is 26.23%. This is coincidentally(?) the exact gain made from 10/22/10 to the margin hike highs of 11/9/10 and the gain from 1/25/11 to 2/28/11. If we can now all agree that the price action of late April was a blow off top, where The Cartel stood aside and let silver roll all the way to $50, then we can assume that silver should have rallied only to about $43.25. Had it stopped there like it should have, we'd be left with a chart that looked like this:
Ultimately, this post is concerned with what we can expect for the next six weeks as we head toward first notice day for the July11 contract, so here's what I anticipate:
1) Silver continues to base this week between $33 and $35.
2) By Friday but no later than next Wednesday, silver will be chugging higher.
3) Applying a 26.23% gain to a low of $33 or $34 gives us a price target of $42-43 by 6/29/11, the first notice day of the July11 contract.

For those keeping score at home, two weeks ago I was expecting silver to only correct to about 45, not 35. I then expected a 40+% rally toward $65, not a 26% rally to $43. The severity of this correction has forced me to alter these forecasts but the pattern remains.

Therefore, I will look to be a buyer this week if/when silver retreats again to the area between 33 and 34. I will probably be buying July $40 calls. I may even sell some 43s or 45s against them to create a spread.
I'll let you know.
The main thing and the point of this exercise is to illustrate for you that the savage beating silver has taken over the past two weeks was brutal but not unexpected. Pattern and timing now strongly suggest that silver will once again swing higher very soon. Be patient but have faith. Opportunity again awaits just over the horizon.

Enjoy your Sunday and get ready for a very, very interesting week. TF

301 comments:

  1. Your predictions, particularly regarding the USD, are proving to be rather off target. You did very well when everything went up but now you're really shooting yourself, or at least your readers, in the figurative foot, by making predictions that seem to end up looking silly. Why not hang up your gloves? You guided a lot of folks into a lot of profits...now they'll follow you and lose those profits. Just curious.

    ReplyDelete
  2. MARAdona your statement is anything but curious...if anything be curious...it be you...

    ReplyDelete
  3. There we have it folks!
    Our winner of "most likeliest to get banned from Turd's new site"!
    Thank you all for playing.

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  4. Thanks Turd, any thoughts on what Crude will do? And we also have the gold exchange opening in Hong Kong on 5/19? Yikes, lot of things could change in a hurry in these times.

    @ MARAdona

    The USD is a worthless indicator of anything. It is rising due to euro weakness, and not dollar strength, very big difference to comprehend here. Your efforts to be the first one to post only to criticize show you rather mislead future discussino on this thread during these critical times rather than inputing what you believe to happen for others to debate with. For future posts after this, just ignore.

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  5. Many thanks Turd,
    also sitting here curious on the short term prospects for Oil although I think she moves higher with the continuing unrest front center.

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  6. I thought this, from one of my favorite bands, sums things up appropriately.

    Motorhead "Just Coz You Got The Power" lyrics:

    You might be a financial wizard,
    With a sack of loot,
    All I see is a slimy lizard,
    With an expensive suit,
    Go on and run your corporation,
    Go and kiss some ass,
    You might buy half of the nation,
    But you can't buy class.

    You bastards think it's funny,
    Lyin' and thieving all your life,
    Think all there is money,
    Got your future strapped up tight,
    Just 'Cos You Got The Power,
    That don't mean you got the right.

    You can take my fingers babe,
    You can take my eyes,
    You can take my past and future,
    It won't make you wise,
    You can have me thrown in jail,
    You can steal my booze,
    You can even read my mail,
    Step on my blue suede shoes.

    You bastards must be clever,
    Got it mapped out in black and white,
    But don't forget you'll never,
    Get a dog to walk upright,
    Just 'Cos You Got The Power,
    That don't mean you got the right.

    Go on out make another deal,
    Feed your big fat face,
    Go on out and cop a feel,
    Get on somebody's case,
    You surely would be satisfied,
    If you could have it all,
    But time ain't on your side,
    You're going to the wall.

    You think that life's all dollars,
    Greed and lust and spite,
    But I wasn't born to follow,
    Like to get my sleep at night,
    Just 'Cos You Got The Power,
    That don't mean you got the right.

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  7. Relax you guys, I'm truly curious why Turd continues to post when clearly he continues to get things wrong. A few months ago I read his blog with interest, but now I scan it because his calls have been less and less astute. I'm the first one posting because I saw on Twitter that he put up a new blog piece and I wanted to ask him why he keeps posting.

    @scott, the USD is a worthless indicator of anything? Interesting, because Turd uses it as a measure all the time; why would that be if it's useless?

    Perhaps you guys should chill out a little. I'm as bullish on PMs as anyone here, but I also have a brain. Asking questions, and sometimes being a contrarian, is beneficial and fruitful. Had I listened to Turd's recent calls I'd be out a decent amount of money.

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  8. If and/or when silver punches through $40, I will feed you $40, Turd. Scout's honor.

    BTW, my thinking is that the terrific (horrific, is more like it) smack-down in silver will in hindsight look like the '87 stock market "crash" as time goes by (in other words, a blip).

    Secondly, I am wondering if QE3 will be slipped in under the guise of war, since other mean of administering it are politically unpalatable. Just wondering, is all.

    Thanks for your analysis, as always, Turd.

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  9. Thanks TF for your work, you're brilliant.

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  10. @scott, I wasn't going to call complete bs on your pronouncement that the USD Index is a worthless indicator of anything but that statement was just too ignorant. I'm sure you've seen this yet you hastily responded to me without considering the implications of the USD Index on gold and silver prices, and therefore on the price action of mining equities: http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

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  11. @ MARAdona

    Philosophically it means nothing, in the markets yes it means something. Cheers

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  12. Hmm...I listened to Turds recent calls last week and shorted silver from $36 to $34, and then went long at $34 to $36...made $50K in two days. Don't make me laugh...Turd please continue, as long as you're 70%-80% right that's enough for me.

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  13. Turd, your posts make me smile. I'm holding off on a major silver buy until later this week following your logic, I missed the $33 entry point last week.

    I'm a casual reader and post mostly on zerohedge but if necessary I'd drop the $20 to participate here.

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  14. before people get all wound up and engage maradonna just remember this is why an Ignore button is all that's needed on the updated website - not a fee.

    if you don't like what he's saying - just IGNORE HIM, don't feed him! Don't be your own worst enemy and please do not request "moderators" which are akin to book burners. Let maradonna and whoever post what they wish - and you can ignore whatever you wish just as easily. Others may choose to consider what he says - it is up to the individual. No skin off anyone's nose.

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  15. Whether USD index is important or not... you must not forget HFT boxes, hedgies and their algos.

    So long term, "fundamental" approach of course will be like it's worthless, because giving such a huge weight to EUR (other soon-to-be-fallen) is nonsense.

    But you don't know how many algos are executing thousands of trades on Gold/Silver futures a day, based on some strange spread, trending or average strategies. The same boxes will be selling wheat futures like crazy, provided some algo rules are met - and trust me, it can be in the middle of food crisis.

    Simply - if you're trader, you're watching the index very closely.

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  16. @MARAdona

    I appreciate your right to make an observation but it seems that the core tone of your post was to encourage TF to "hang up his gloves" and just stop expressing his take on the metals markets.

    As anyone should know no one person is going to be correct in predicting the future 100% of the time. Your original point seems to ignore this most basic fact of life.

    TF has repeatedly stated (and in capital letters) that this site is his platform for sharing his take on what is happening in the metals markets; not his assurance to his readers that they can take his theories to the bank. Anyone on here who is taking positions in the markets based solely on TF's blog entries is not doing sufficient due diligence. But that does not in any way invalidate TF's pattern recognition technique nor his observations on the machinations our our fair government's officials as one more tool to use in anyone's decision making process. At least consider this before you post a criticism.

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  17. @brad pitt brother

    This is the best idea proposed here ever, IHMO.

    @Turd please go for something like that.

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  18. @Maradona

    Not everyone agrees with the turd 100% of the time, but the ones with their own intelligence and knowledge of the markets post their own predictions on where they think the market will go rather than merely claiming that the Turd is wrong. Perhaps you could do the same and we'll call you on it if you are proved right/wrong. Or are you only good at predicting things retrospectively?

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  19. well, not that it matters but when we were 49, on this board i distinctly and repeatedly called it an exponential blowoff that would see 34. Did i expect it this fast, uh no, but it was pretty obvious that the silver chart was unstable.Ok mr smart guy, what now.One persons guess.

    I think silver is just fundamentally "too cheap" under 30, as measured in these comical 2011 dollars and though the Comex numbers are impenetrable, I am not sure how many specs are left to chase out.Probably very few, the OI is 60 thousand contracts off its high
    Could they raid to 28?, I doubt it.I think it might just get boring for a while, and do some base building either side of 35.

    By year end? maybe 60 to 80, and we go higher from there, and here i am assuming a relatively constant US Dollar somewhere around where it is, since if it collapsed as it will, then the numbers become meaningless.

    Could we go right back to the 40s? Like right now, i doubt, we need to base build.

    My number is 51. Area 51. Then it goes wild and 50 will be far in the rear view mirror.Just one persons guess.

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  20. I shy away from specific stock symbol recommendations, but for those of you have an investment portfolio that is long philosophy and short market, please invest heavily in STOA and SART. I think that Stoicism, Inc and Existentialism Corp. will provide a lot of strength to you and your family after you successfully rid yourselves of all tainted USD.

    @SnoochieBoochies,

    Good point about hindsight. Other than being correct MARAdona has contributed nothing to this board. This board will be awesome once he gives up and stops posting, like the unbelievers Yukon and Kid Dynamite.

    MARAdona said... (April 26, 2011 9:27 AM)
    Are some of you looking to get slaughtered? This buying of every dip, now that we're seeing a strong downside correction(no matter how brief it is) is the best way to get your asses handed to you. For all the use of the word sheeple, some folks on this board certainly act like sheeple from another flock.

    Stay calm, missing profits is not the end of the world. Can anyone really look at this price and think "Hell yeah, that's it?! That chart looks healthy!" - I sure hope not.

    Don't let "them" take your money so easily; at least cross your legs and say "no" a few times first.


    MARAdona said... (May 3, 2011 10:40 AM)
    Why even buy paper silver anymore? Comex has it figured out; raise margins a few times in rapid succession until you get an ugly looking chart and a sell-off, rinse and repeat.

    I'm waiting for the low-mid $30s before piling into physical. I liquidated all my positions in gold and silver and am sitting on cash. Gold will fare better you'd have to think, but silver looks in for a right raping.

    The answer is obvious, but why would the COMEX prefer to punish those who are attempting to BUY a commodity they want but don't have, rather than those who are SELLING a commodity they don't have? Hmmm..

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  21. When considering the validity of the comments from MARAdona, please review the timestamps of my post and his comment. They are three minutes apart.
    It is quite clear that he simply wants to bash, confuse and misinform you. Clearly, he could not be troubled to even take five minutes to review/read what took me 2 1/2 hours to write.
    I will have no further comment on this or any other troll action.

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  22. @snoochieboochies very well said. That is absolutly silly to think Turd can give 100% predictions. My goodness the quality of the anaylsis is all that can be asked. what you are implying Mara is the attitude of many who just give up and lose aka sheeple mentality.

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  23. I think both sides here need to chill out. This a VERY UNSTABLE market, with a shitload of chaotic, moving parts. Pretending you "know" where prices are going WILL make you look stupid--guaranteed. It can also wipe out your margin acct in a New York minute (that's for you, Mr. 50K...)

    Obviously, that's not going to stop anybody here, but I thought it was worth mentioning.

    If some of you mooks would actually listen to what Dan Norcini says (as opposed to what you hope he said), you would be a lot less cocksure in this environment--and more likely to profit, going forward.

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  24. the best thing about turd is .. hes not afraid of getting things wrong ! posting infront of 1000's is big thing ! hes opinion are must watch and onli helps othrs ,,, n no one cn blame him ,,coz this is not a paid site !! this releases a lot of pressure off him !!

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  25. Apmex has pretty good pricing on 40% silver (75 cents under spot). I've never bought 40% before, but that price is almost as good as Tulving.

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  26. Why people? Everyone has to feed the trolls. I come for trading discussions. Thoughts on the short term market and we let it get ruined cause someone waits to post a negative comment to throw the thread off and we fall for it!

    Where have you been? Turd has called things almost to a tee. Anyone following should know this. Heck if he's so bad bet against him or don't come around. The turd probably has only his oil under water and the other side is prob 3-4 month winners. The guy must be closing 80 - 90% winners in futures

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  27. @ Maranita;

    " Your predictions, particularly regarding the USD, are proving to be rather off target."

    I'm sure you had it right and expected this BS, non based surge of the USD?

    "You did very well when everything went up but now you're really shooting yourself, or at least your readers, in the figurative foot, by making predictions that seem to end up looking silly."

    Read the blog daily idiot and stfu....

    "Why not hang up your gloves? You guided a lot of folks into a lot of profits...now they'll follow you and lose those profits. Just curious."

    Sounds to me......like you lost a lot you f*ckin troll. whahahah

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  28. $HUI looks extremely interesting and I am now accumulating......I'll be watching how the 200ma is handled but this baby is getting ready. The dollar now becomes a non factor as the PMs become their own currency. Your analysis on gold and silver look good. gl

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  29. Here´s why I think POSX will turn around at 76.8.
    http://goo.gl/photos/qvb27uL241
    We have several technical reasons why the Dollar could turn back lower at 76.8 next week. Plus Strauss-Kahn will push the Dollar first a little higher (Euro lower, Bailout of Greeke in question), may be right into the 76.8 resistance.

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  30. I will never adress this again. The length of the post proves it was pre written and waited for a new thread. To throw the topic off.

    EA Im starting to think your right about hijackers

    END

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  31. @Turd, good point.
    Madonna must be a troll copy/paste artist at best.

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  32. yikes usual wknd degradation

    maradona is just trying to get a reaction.

    evil prob is a high school or college kid living is his mom's basement working at mcd's, thx atlee for the detective work.

    anyone can make a prediction in the markets, or
    "create a simulation". VERY few are any where near rich from doing it.

    the reason many of us listen to turd is that we've already made $1ks or $10ks worth already. some of us r basically now playing with "house money"...

    maradona and evil so far have only cost me money (not a lot b/c it only takes about 30 secs to scan each of their posts, but still this is a cost to me with no resultant profit).

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  33. Thanks for the update Turd. For the POSX I use the term "best horse in the glue factory". In regards to the "troll", TA and such, my opinion is that there are way too many outside influences going on. How do you do TA when you have totally manipulated markets? How does a multi week analysis take into account breakdown of the EU, increasing smoke in the ME, debt ceilings, earthquakes with nuclear meltdowns and liars all the way to the top? Turd at least presents us with as many facts as possible for us to make up our own decisions. Trolls, what reasoning do you present? Bashing is not a strategy and is non productive.

    I believe we're all in uncharted waters and PM's are a safety play. We're in a casino, this is semi-calculated gambling, not investing. The one item is that it is in soon to be worthless FIAT. Remember FIAT in automotive terms stands for Fix It Again Tony. In our world, it may be Fix It Again IMF with the SDR / Amero or other. FIAT is used to buy physical / other wealth holding instruments to adapt to impending new realities

    Rambling rant off

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  34. Sorry regulars if I offend you. Once again turd said it all in his comment. I read mardonna comment then a bunch more than jumped in disgust to comments. Was so obvious to me and looked like it was working.

    I know most will see it that way to. Can't wait for new site.

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  35. Rising oil prices sets the tone for the commodities to edge higher, regardless of what the dollar does.
    The recent middle east uprising is too big to ignore, escalating to something larger is my prediction.

    http://english.aljazeera.net/

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  36. @ Vickaty

    I agree, I think macro-events will over-power normal trading fundamentals (such as the Dollar Index). This middle east thing just was amplified to a new level... there is a reason why Obama is starting to expand US drilling, because the plan is to have them open when oil is well north of $150. Lindsey Williams has some good information on this.

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  37. @Turd

    What is your opinion of a strong short covering rally once it appears silver has truly put in a bottom at around the $35 range. I think most retail traders are very bearish on silver and this could set us up for a short squeeze to around $39-$40 once they realize that the trend has changed in the next three weeks.

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  38. @all the blogites:
    I respect people's opinions about how they are investing and the reasons behind their thinking. THAT is TF's MO.
    I object when people tell others how to behave including "chill out" or "give it a rest" or even "hang up your gloves".
    If a comment seems to be "telling" stop reading it less you allow some emotional response to come forward. I save my emotions for marriages and funerals.

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  39. QE3- in whatever form is going to happen so pay attention to TF's tip and BTFD this week so you can collect around the end of June.

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  40. @MARAdona your post is written as an attack on Turd. You are wasting your time and mine.

    This site attracts and retains people who don't "hang up the gloves" as long as they have a fighting chance.

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  41. @averagejoe I have been watching the trolls post for years on my site. They come on with disinformation and throw everyone off subject. The posters then fight the trolls and then MORE trolls (agents) come and agree with the original troll. The original article then looks like a complete lie with troll posts. The government admitted they do that on many sites. GOOGLE IT. Some conspiracies just turn out to be true. I actually check IP addresses and see where the trolls come from. YOU WOULD BE SURPRISED!

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  42. < ignore> MARADona < / ignore>

    Last time I looked DOW futures were like -116. Anyone think we get a sell-down tonight/tomorrow, giving us long entry points?

    Experienced option traders: Anyone do any serious look working at the max pain? Any use?

    S>

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  43. I think if we all, and then we could..after which point all will be well.

    Hope this helps :p

    Thanks for the update T!!!F!!!

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  44. Turd

    Great analysis! Really. That will be my playbook.

    @ Ken
    Look in the mirror. You are violating the substance of your own post telling others how to act.

    Still a free country and if you feel the need to tell someone to step off, then I say have at it. Just keep it civil. Save the profanity for SGS.

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  45. Savers may flee U.S. banks

    'The dominoes are starting to fall,' says Sprott

    Read more: HERE..

    SILVER AND GOLD WILL BE USED for SAVINGS..

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  46. thanks for post. If posx does continue to rise for whatever reason then market and commodities will fall. I fear a rising dollar more then trolls wars and imf rapists. Turd out.

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  47. You guys are letting a lot of nonsense cloud your vision.

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  48. Golly-gee-whiz-diddly-ding-dang-darn. Every time I hit the backspace key it wipes out my post!

    Turd, btw many thanks for the analysis and insight into your thought processes; very educational and much appreciated.

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  49. @ Atlee
    Nope. Just saying what I do.

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  50. More in store from Syria after easy breach of Israel's Golan border

    Special Report May 15, 2011

    On Sunday, May 15, Israel's enemies breached three of its borders in an operation that caught its government, army and intelligence napping. Their reaction to the massive violation of its Syrian, Lebanese and Gaza borders showed all three to be muddled and incapable of an organized, rational tactical response to a multiple security crisis. This weakness ("maximum restraint"), which was no doubted noted in Tehran, Damascus, Beirut and Ramallah, may be expected to lead to the next Syrian step to recover the Golan – not this time by thousands of civilians, but by military and terrorist forces.
    Military sources report that the Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, the chief of staff and his deputy, instead of dropping their routine occupations and taking charge of the crisis, preferred to make light of it. Local commanders, left to handle extreme situations developing at high speed during the day, were reluctant to assume responsibility for the weighty decisions called for.
    This weakness, which was no doubted noted in Tehran, Damascus, Beirut and Ramallah, may be expected to lead to the next Syrian step to recover the Golan – not this time by thousands of civilians, but by tough military and terrorist forces....con't

    http://debka.com/article/20936/

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  51. What about this debt ceiling? Can't be bullish on equaties? PMs?

    Holding both xag xau right now. Both in green and not sure what to do. Thinking of lightening the load. Its times like this when I use to make the most off silver(scared) but this time equaties market has me worried or should I say paranoid.

    Feel like selling out of everything and going 100% physical. Scotia shows available silver again this weekend. All sold out last week.

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  52. Thank you Turd for all you do!


    @ punk with the all the negative insulting crap intended to demoralize and discourage... go suck a bag and choke!

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  53. Greetings, Turdites. And Turd. :-) Been lurking for a couple of months, then was on vacation during the first "hell week." Fortunately, I decided to minimize risk before I left, so I got mostly the bull run profits. Until I got back, using same playbook for a different game. :-) For reference, I'm trading paper to buy physical.

    Richard's comments about Trader Dan resonate with me. My concern is that QE2 money used by the hedge funds pumped us into the parabola from the long-term up trend, and now fear of that QE2 ending and the margin raises killed the investor psych for a bit.

    A trader friend also asked me where all the Chinese buyers went that were propping up the prices during the run-up. My guess is they're standing aside to see how low it will go. What's your thought?

    So, clearly, the 1-yr chart looks like a classic blow-off top, complete with near-vertical rises, widening open/close spreads, and volume increases on down days. I suspect it was caused (up and down) by hedge funds piling into and out of commodities.

    So, with the macro picture of QE2 expiration risk, investor psych damage, and appearance of risk-off trades increasing, what's the chances the short-term patterns will take a breather for a few months? Or is Turd right in that they will continue, just at prices more in line with the prior long-term trend?

    My first thought on this post is that Turd's got it right adjusting forecasts down to the lower levels. Those are much more inline with the trend before the euphoria. But I have concern that the investor psych damage, short interest, and EE attacks could further the blowoff. After all, silver tends to have peaks and valleys more extreme than most other investments, so why wouldn't it blow off further?

    OK, too much for first post. Thanks to all for participating. And thanks to you TF for your insight and thick skin.

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  54. Thanks for your analysis Turd! I remain in doubt, but will just watch the whole thing go down next week. And in the end we all make our own decisions, so nobody is gonna lead nobody into losses or wins.

    Too bad about madonna indeed, if you have a different view on the course of things then atleast share some of the details of that view. Instead of bashing an obviously very engaged blogger.

    I think that if your site grows the ignore button might be an idea, but also making the width of the comments as wide as possible might be a good idea and a small font, so that it remains scrollable, preferably without paging.

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  55. An interesting article I came across, from May 4th: India wants to Pay Iran in Rupee.

    http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article1989248.ece

    After having explored various options to make payments and having run out of them, India is understood to have decided to pay Iran for the crude oil supplied by it in rupee terms.

    After discussions between the Finance Ministry and the Petroleum and Natural Gas Ministry, it has been decided that the Ministry will seek the note of the Union Cabinet to switch over to the rupee payment system for the Iranian crude, officials in the Petroleum Ministry said.

    Under the newly floated but yet to be approved proposal, National Iranian Oil Co (NIOC) will open rupee account with Indian banks and could use the money to purchase non-strategic items such as railway imports and buy commodities. It will not be able to use the money to invest in India or for buying shares or companies. The Finance Ministry will prepare and submit a list of do's and don'ts for Iranian authorities from the money it gets as part of the crude oil payments.

    The official said the Reserve Bank of India, which, in December last year, discontinued a long-standing mechanism of payment through central banks, previously opposed payments for Iranian oil in rupee but has now relented. In February, India started making euro payments through an Iranian bank based in Germany. But that had to be stopped soon after Germany came under pressure from the United States to put an end to this practice.

    So long sole world reserve currency... looks like the world is making up its mind slowly but surely.

    ReplyDelete
  56. just for the record i think turd ferguson just rocks, i have never seen such calls , such precision.

    ReplyDelete
  57. It is my opinion that the gold/silver market can't be chart-predicted at this time.
    A lot of people are scarred and scared from losing tons of money when they bought in at 47$+. I doubt that euphoria can be regenerated to spike the price of silver up over 40-42$ anytime soon.

    ReplyDelete
  58. I think MARAdona and Turd are the same person.

    :D

    Ok, not really. But I just wanted to laugh.

    Turd,
    Thank you for being here. Thank you for giving us the credit and benefit of the doubt that we can absorb your analysis and still make our own grown up decisions about how we invest. You treat us like adults ...even if all of us don't always act like we are adults ...myself included in that.

    Thank you Kumanari & Eric,
    ..for some comments at the end of the last thread. I value a good mix of opinions..yours both among them.. and I totally get what you both said. Bottom line for me is that you both, along with many others here and led by Turd, do know from what you speak and so I thank you for putting out your thoughts for me to ponder.

    No one knows what the markets will bring over the upcoming short term weeks/months. I have absolutely no problem with my staying power for the long term. I never get the urge to sell my physical or get out of my miners. NEVER. Don't even consider it. It just does not worry me AT ALL to hold long and strong. It's the short term gyrations that I have the struggle with (options) and perhaps that is only because I'm trying to make more $ to buy more physical and miners that I feel I desperately need. Thus the nervousness about what the summer holds. But I expect no one to have a crystal ball.

    I do so very much appreciate your willingness to share your ideas everyone. It helps me to make better decisions and judgments. I am getting better at this options thing every single day because of this site. I don't know how I'll ever thank TF enough really. I still expect to lose all of my initial options investment because I'm so new and so green :] ...but I believe that I will have had an invaluable education and that I will do something right eventually with what I'm learning.

    Have the best day all! ...Turd, thank you for an excellent post that I'm re-reading to make sure I don't miss a thing!

    ReplyDelete
  59. @ Turd

    "Therefore, I will look to be a buyer this week if/when silver retreats again to the area between 33 and 34. I will probably be buying July $40 calls."

    Turd, why do you prefer out of the money vs. in the money calls?

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Obama Says U.S. Default May ‘Unravel’ Global Finances

    May 15, 2011 1:11 PM ET
    Bloomberg News

    President Barack Obama said failure to raise the U.S. debt ceiling by early August might disrupt the global financial system and plunge the nation into another recession.

    If investors “around the world thought the full faith and credit of the U.S. was not being backed up, if they thought we might renege on our IOUs, it could unravel the entire financial system,” Obama said on a segment taped for today’s “Face the Nation” program on CBS...


    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-15/obama-says-debt-default-may-unravel-global-financial-system.html

    ReplyDelete
  61. @ginger
    it may be funny. Who knows, maybe it is a way Turd is warning you guys. He knows his stuff.

    ReplyDelete
  62. I’ve been following Turd-holio’s site for about four months. Trading in SLV for about seven months. I keep track of a lot of very informative websites. This is one I really like. Portfolio is up around fifty percent with some fairly conservative (dollar wise) calls and yes lately puts. Technical analysis does have its merits, fundamentals must be watched closely. Then when you think you’ve got things figured out, tsunami, Fukushima meltdown, middle east unrest, Government overthrows, margin hikes, Osama shot? Turd is the cool hand and does a good job trying to make sense of these market gyrations. Thanks Turd-meister!

    ReplyDelete
  63. Turd and all,

    I found this interview quite good at KWN. It is
    Robin Griffiths.
    http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/5/14_Robin_Griffiths.html

    ReplyDelete
  64. COMMUNITY GARDEN UPDATE:

    I should probably say this on a weekend thread ..not on a Rockin' & Rollin' weekday thread when the markets are hopping. .....

    The community garden here is doing EXCELLENTLY. Thecoloredsky can vouch for me on this because we are neighbors :) ...but we have had NO SHORTAGE of really great Spring rains. This garden is just in wonderful condition. Last week we put in dozens and dozens of tomatoe plants along with cucumbers, beans, and an assortment of other vegetables. The potatoes that we did many weeks back are just looking great. We are going to be overrun with produce soon.

    I bring all of this up because all this food has to go somewhere! Our pastor asked us to think of families that we know might need some help. IF any of you are in the Wake County, NC or surrounding areas and have any good ideas or know families who are struggling or can come to us.... we would love to help them this summer. I don't mind posting my business email address here for someone to get in touch with me or to tell you where to direct folks.

    I hope this is OK to post here but I've been telling you about this effort to prepare and this is our first time out with doing this as a community. We hope/plan to keep it going. I am not a leader in this...just a worker. Our little community really hopes that those in need will feel great about coming out to be blessed. NO strings attached!

    Even if no one from this blog knows of anyone or I don't get any responses.. that's ok.. I'll keep you updated as we start to harvest all this food!

    ReplyDelete
  65. RE: Savers may flee U.S. banks

    After reaching my personal goal for on-hand PM, I setup a BullionVault account a few months ago as an option to have PM assets outside the US. I've shuttled some saving over there. I'm considering it a bug-out route for the rest of our savings if/when the time comes.

    Anyone else using BullionVault or GoldMoney?

    ReplyDelete
  66. There was a post on the last thread I really liked that compared us all to Platos allegory of the cave, and how many investors are stuck watching shadows on the wall. In a serious consideration of that analogy, Plato meant to say we all as humans are thus limited, with one exception, and that exception is those who are inclined to the study of mathematics, math being in his opinion (and mine) to be a fundamental truth that underlies the functioning of the universe, and all other things being only representations tainted by our own perspectives and prejudices (shadows).

    Following that line of thought, Turn need not be right %70, %80, %90 of the time to be a genius, in the strictest mathematical terms if he is right only %51 of the time he has already rigged the game in our favor, wether the game is commodity futures, stock, roulette or the kentucky derby.

    Over time a even a %51 success rate in any game results in immense success. Imagine if you were a baseball player and you hit a home run even %50 of the time. You would be guaranteed a bust in the baseball hall of fame as one of the greatest hitters ever to play. You would have a batting average of .500. Compare that to Babe Ruth at .342 and you start to see what I mean.

    ReplyDelete
  67. Turd, my thoughts on your charts:
    I like your forecast based on a "white-out" of the blow off top. It makes sense if we did not have the blow off top, and helps to see a long term picture better. Where I question this is that I see the blow off top like a stretching of a rubber band. Normally the pull back would only be to the 33-44 area, but downward moment would imply a "blow off bottom" which yanks the price down to the $30 area. I would love for someone to tell me how I am wrong, but this seems to be the counter effect of the area you "whited-out"

    ReplyDelete
  68. I am wondering if it might be helpful to look at the 2008 top in silver in addition to the last few contracts. See the May 10th entry for a chart showing how they match up. http://www.marketanthropology.com/p/chart-lab.html
    Should we be concerned that after getting so far ahead of its moving average silver has further to fall and will be depressed below the average for a while as in 2008/2009?
    Would love to hear everyone's thoughts about whether this pattern will repeat or what will make it different this time.

    ReplyDelete
  69. I think What we all need is “IMF stimulus”.

    Oh wait, never mind…

    ReplyDelete
  70. Fed hasn't decided exit strategy yet: Lockhart

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-hasnt-decided-exit-strategy-yet-lockhart-2011-05-15?link=MW_latest_news

    And right on key the puppets are speaking...Going to be a killer week folks..Strap yourself in.

    ReplyDelete
  71. @Man who stole a leopard

    I use bullion banks too, to me it's the best of both worlds. The speed of paper trading without leverage or margin while owning allocated physical without the hassle of actually holding it.

    ReplyDelete
  72. IMF chief set to resign: =

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-chief-strauss-kahn-arrested-in-new-york-2011-05-15?link=MW_story_latest_news

    ReplyDelete
  73. @Man...leopard

    I have a GoldMoney silver account.

    I am very pleased to have it. Good service.

    ReplyDelete
  74. I'm starting to think that Pres. Obama signs some sort of executive order tomorrow raising the debt limit "on a temporary basis".... he gets to take credit for "saving the fiscal stability of the US", and can later blame congress if they do (or do not) enact budget cuts. Meanwhile Tim and Ben get to goose the economy again to help with his re-election bid.

    In this case, I think we'd see the PMs and the stocks front-run the news with a big rampup....I think...

    ReplyDelete
  75. Ginger

    Don't apologize for "Community Garden" type posts. I eat that stuff up. :D

    I'll be changing my avatar soon to a nice picture of our apple tree. Full bloom right now and gorgeous. Visions of apple pies are dancing in my head already. Prepare Accordingly.

    ReplyDelete
  76. @ MARAdona

    I suspect you have some serious difficulty reading and understanding English, I find turd's assessment of the silver market to be highly accurate since I began reading this blog several months ago. Maybe you're just bitter because you lost money on some bad trades and now you want to disparage someone else to make yourself feel better, isn't that it? Of course it is, it's obvious to me and probably to most everyone else here... why don't you begin your own blog and see if anyone reads it? LOL!!! You can respond to my comments here, but I won't read it, I don't wast time with drivel like that... bye, bye...

    ReplyDelete
  77. the EUR/USD rate has gapped down to 1.4085 from a Friday close of 1.4115 in pre-market trading (according to the netDania chart).

    ReplyDelete
  78. silver Options Trading Signals

    http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/articles/

    ReplyDelete
  79. Ginger- Thanks for the update, I have been thinking about your project. Very cool, and FWIW our garden here in PA is finally starting to take off (we are well behind you in growing season). Good stuff, keep us informed.P.S. May get our first real fruit on three year old trees- apples, peaches, cherries, and maybe a plumb or two. All that work finally starting to pay off feels almost as good as a heavy APMEX box, and goes much towards the same purpose.

    ReplyDelete
  80. Turd, I am amazed at how often you DO get it right. Your analyses are always logical and easy to follow. Absolutely brilliant! Thanks for providing us your honest views and insights!

    Unfortunately, the USD is going down the drain as it continues to loose attractiveness with central banks and educated investors. Quite amusing that some folks still regard the USD as a safe haven. PM prices are going up already just because the USD is going down, hence looking at PM price development in EUR, CHF and JPY is becoming more and more important.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Article that aligns with TF suggesting we have a rally pending... with a funny title.

    Silver - Wanted At $50, Not Wanted At $35 - Time To Call In The Psychiatrists...

    http://www.safehaven.com/article/20992/silver-wanted-at-50-not-wanted-at-35-time-to-call-in-the-psychiatrists

    ReplyDelete
  82. Guys, I've been harping on this, so I apologize, but I think it's with repeating: King Dollar is going to make another appearance as QE2 ends and take a blowtorch to equity and PM markets.

    Charts are great, and Turd is a master chartist, but he is charting gold and silver in QE2. I would not bet a wooden nickel on recent charts as people factor in the punch bowl getting dragged away in a few weeks.

    I'm not saying you have to take advantage of the shorting opportunity, but I'd be wary if backing up the truck on PMs. You should get the chance to buy more for les in a few months.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Why does everyone assume MARAdona is male? I think this is a bitch on wheels who's taunting Turd to include her in the next Blythe Ruprecht video. I swear it took me a full 30 mins to get through Turd's latest post. Granted I'm a slow reader .. but she did that plus wrote her comment in just 3 minutes? Impossible.

    Oh MARAdona you are so not to be taken seriously.

    ReplyDelete
  84. I hope you are wrong Turd and we have an epic struggle for silver to blow through $50! I would love to see the Crimex and JPMorgue suffer and squeel. Forget the elegance of mathematics, I just want to make the bastards hurt.

    ReplyDelete
  85. Ginger, your comments about producing your own food do indeed fit in here, as I would like to think this site is about better preparing oneself for the future.

    Also a gardener here in the Puget Sound region - where it can be a bit more challenging to grow vegetables than in the South.

    -Mammoth

    ReplyDelete
  86. Just a reminder that it was the Sunday night (May 1st) Australian/Asian trade that saw the fall in Silver begin. IMO it would not be unexpected to force the price lower once again and leave a really bad taste in most Silver investors mouths.
    Silver down once again. More Oil margin increases to pressure price down.
    Dollar prop. Many Silver newbies(weak hands) would wince from burned fingers.

    Stomping Silver down further would not surprise me.

    ReplyDelete
  87. The sudden turning up of the heat in the Middle East may affect tomorrow's market (and PM's), but what do people here think the results will be on Congress' discussions about raising the debt ceiling?

    The former may either cause a flight to safery (PM's) of a flight to cash; not sure about the latter either.

    At the moment my crystal ball is fuzzy; what does yours say?

    ReplyDelete
  88. Great analysis TF! Does this prediction take into account the "ending" of QE2. I thought it was accepted that it will end, temporarily, then come back full force after wide spread acceptance. Wouldn't that cause another correction until it is brought back

    ReplyDelete
  89. Pining & Eric,
    Apple, peach, cherry, plum trees..OH MY!

    I am so jealous. We literally have a little postage stamp sized yard and your trees just sound so great. My MIL has pecan trees so we do know the joy of having those.. ...I hope your trees bear for you this year Pining.. and Eric.. yeah.. I can taste that apple pie now myself! .....As a matter of fact, your posts sounded so good I went downstairs and put a peach cobbler in the oven. :D ....Not homegrown peaches from my own trees ..but still... :]

    Mammoth,
    I wish I had started all of this years ago as I do not consider myself a gardener yet. I grew up in the country but became to 'city-fied' (even in NC) and didn't see the importance of developing such skills until recently. Trying to catch up here in my gardening knowledge! ...I hope yours does really well this Summer!

    Also hope TF will have some sort of forum re: food/gardening ...overall preps in that area. .....Of course bacon needs it's very own forum. :]

    ReplyDelete
  90. Ron Paul: 'These are the kind of people running the IMF'

    http://www.domasjefferson.com/news/ron-paul-these-are-the-kind-of-people-running-the-imf

    -Domas Jefferson

    ReplyDelete
  91. IMF Rapist to become Rapee: Chief set to resign amid rape allegations...
    http://www.domasjefferson.com/news/imf-rapist-to-become-rapee-chief-set-to-resign-amid-rape-allegations

    -Domas Jefferson

    ReplyDelete
  92. News & Commentary for the Constitutional American...

    www.DomasJefferson.com

    ReplyDelete
  93. It is possible that the premise that there is a shortage of silver is untrue. I think that this article casts serious doubt on the ability of retail investors, foreign buyers of size and industrial users of silver to crash the JP Morgue.

    http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/05/costatas-silver-open-forum.html

    ReplyDelete
  94. Here we go! Added stop losses at 35 just in case

    ReplyDelete
  95. so you are stopped out on the opening LOL

    it will go higher during the day, as there is debt ceiling case

    ReplyDelete
  96. Geithner Sends Doomsday Letter To Congress Predicting Double-Dip Recession If Debt Ceiling Not Raised

    http://dailybail.com/home/geithner-sends-doomsday-letter-to-congress-predicting-double.html

    ReplyDelete
  97. Piter. Could you elaborate on the debt ceiling issue? Any breakthroughs to be made today?

    ReplyDelete
  98. how very prescient of you joe!

    ReplyDelete
  99. @donnojack

    Then go physical. This does hurt them most and it's certainly not fun.

    There's always a tradeoff:
    - play paper and earn a bit -> you can buy more physical IF YOU'RE LUCKY AND YOU EXIT PAPER GAME IN THE RIGHT MOMENT

    - go physical immediately - you can't lose any money in case of wrong bets but you don't enjoy the leverage

    I don't believe in miners... miners are stocks. Stock price is not what it's worth but what people believe it's worth. With intrinsic value of precious metals, and their historical role in monetary systems proven over past 5000 years - the risk/reward ratio is somewhat more attractive to me.

    I think that in case of physical silver you don't even need any leverage. There's only ~ 10 times more Silver to be mined than Gold. I expect GSR to drop; perhaps not to 10, but below 20. And Gold is going to $3000 - $10000 - $XXXXX(???) in next couple of years.

    ReplyDelete
  100. Wow xag closed for me right away. Hit a profit. This market is to much on my nerves!

    ReplyDelete
  101. Plutonium detected 30 miles (50km) from Fukushima

    http://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=3302504&postcount=126

    ReplyDelete
  102. Begining in the morning I will short the S&P 500 via SDS calls. I feel that gain of being in early this week to PM's is overshadowed by the last chance the EE has to really gage what a sudden removal of debt monitization will do to the market. If the market holds up neutral then the volitility of the metals will allow me to buy back in at a good price in the not too distant future. If the market tanks I will ride it down until the debt ceiling is moved up. If the market tanks hard and the dollar bounces viciously from greek default fear then I shall ride the S&P500 down and then buy into silver just before I consider the debate on the debt ceiling to be resolved. Furthser the more severe the retracement the more likely QE III will follow and silver will become a rocket ship far before anticipated or the market will break outright for a time.

    If the market is stable then nothing meaningful is lost in waiting a week under these conditions. However if the market does turn and panic buying supports the dollar early next week at current resistance points may in fact not be the best buy in price for PM's in our retracement. If the market turns down hard or the dollar bounces even further then there will be a breif moment in time when a person may buy below the resitance level that will reestablish themselves quickly once the race for the door ends. If the market is stable I may lose a dollar or two waiting at worst case scenario for the end of month pin.

    In short I see risk here, and little to gain by hurrying. I see amazing opportunities to ride a short burst downward in a worst case scenario followed by a shockingly cheap PM buy in.

    Good luck everyone.

    ReplyDelete
  103. Something Is Strange

    The head of the IMF arrested for rape.

    Louisiana flooded to save the refineries.

    Zimbabwe introducing a gold backed Z Dollar. See Zero hedge. .

    Something Is Strange. Very strange. Gideon Gonzo the Zim finance minister marring the US Dollar.

    One pinches oneself. I see feathers, black feathers. Dali stuff Tyler called it. Surreal.

    Something big looms here. I expect a market crash, starting tonite, people move to subliminal clues, they like to think its rational, its not, they respond to cues that they do not even have the jam to understand.

    A salmon, can find its way two thousand miles up the coast of Cali to the Fraser River, where he was an egg on a patch of gravel upriver. He heads back north and turns right 5 years later as an adult, on to the same SPOT of gravel he came from. When he was an egg.

    And we bipeds are rational?????? WE have it allsmoked out>????? hahahahahahah.

    Monkeys in suits.

    ReplyDelete
  104. @kindabluzzay

    Thank God I am in physical only! Started in 2007 and haven't trusted banks, Govt, and shares since then. Probably got a bit paranoid a little to early it seems, but sure would like the reckoning on the systemic unfairness.

    Can never undstand why the terrorists of the world go after innocent citizens and not bankers and tptb.

    My two cents worth is as the Morgue stars to see the price of silver explode, all sorts of underhanded dirty tricks and rule changes will be engaged, making technical analysis nigh on impossible- Turd will hv his work cut out!

    I wonder how Blythe justifies what she does to herself?

    ReplyDelete
  105. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  106. A few quotes by MARAdona I found. Why do people continue to feed him who doesn't know anything but putting down PM and insult people consistently.

    MARAdona said...
    There are some great posters who have been on here for a while, but there is an anti-mainstream herd mentality here that is just as ridiculous as any other herd."

    MARAdona said... Buying the dip works, until it doesn't. Looks like silver could find its way back down the low $40s which would be darn healthy, but it would sure wipe out a lot of sheeple who claim to not be sheeple.

    MARAdona said... If you think SLW is on blue light special NOW, you might want to stand on the sidelines. Just holding with faith in your heart isn't going to work the next few days.
    May 15, 2011 6:28 PM

    ReplyDelete
  107. Sydney market open in under 2 hrs.

    Let the games begin @Vamoose

    ReplyDelete
  108. I know Turd can't predict future, and what I truly appreciate from Turd is that he helps us to make educated bet based on statistical analysis instead of making bets based on wishful thinking and gambling mentality. Even if he is only 51% right and 49% wrong( although I think it is much higher), I think we can remain profitable as long as we are disciplined. That's why I encouraged him to set up a separate premium site.

    So if any criticize him for not being right 80% then I would just say fuck off.

    ReplyDelete
  109. I thought I read here that the netdania charts are free. I am on their site now and do not see a free download. Am I missing something?

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  110. oldNavy you are in the right place. Netdania has a lot of other offerings so you have to navigate to the charts.

    On the home page see tabs across the screen from left to right. Select Charts, wait for the javascript to load and start playing with the chart selections!

    ReplyDelete
  111. I have a modest GoldMoney account. I set it up to fund day-to-day living expenses via monthly sale and transfer. My long-term gold and silver bullion is at a small, 200 year old private, single-location Swiss bank. I got access to it through SafeWealth, which I read about in Prechter's 'Conquer the Crash.'

    Turd, your commentary and forecasting have been outstanding. Thanks for your efforts, sir.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Free Netdania charts:
    http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx

    Free forexpros.com charts (atlee's preference for studies):
    http://www.forexpros.com/charts/real-time-forex-charts

    Netdania is Java based, forexpros uses Flash, but I think they use Netdania's feed.

    ReplyDelete
  113. kinda off topic, but this has been discusted on here a while back. I've now had my new Berkey for about 4 weeks now. It's the Berkey Light. Just gotta tell all who are thinking about getting one, do it! It's an amazing filter and the water tastes perfect. The filters are so good that if/when the SHTF and you don't have water, you can any kind of bad water through it and it will come out purified. Plus the filters last for 6000 gallons, so it will take years until you need new filters. Very glad and relieved to now have this amongst my survival gear!

    ReplyDelete
  114. Zimbabwe Says Days Of The US Dollar Are Numbered, Pushes For Gold-Backed Local Currency

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/zimbabwe-says-days-us-dollar-are-numbered-pushes-gold-backed-local-currency

    ReplyDelete
  115. floppyears,
    I have been wondering about silver shortages also. I recall reading several articles that explained that there are abundant supplies if you are a small investor, but if you want large quantities , like Sprott did, then the supply is tight. What I have noticed myself is that PM sellers like Apmex & Provident are shorter on supplies and choices in the past two months than back in the fall. They have also boosted their premiums. this indicates a shortage beginning to reach down to my modest level. Not quite there yet... But if a hedgie wanted to buy and take delivery of 10 million ounces, how fast would COMEX deliver? I think that claims of a shortage are warranted.

    ReplyDelete
  116. A Cautionary Tale

    A couple months ago a guy not far from me had 750, 000 thousand dollars of silver stolen from his house.

    Guess who showed up. The police, and in Uniform, except they were not, they were home invaders, and rather badly organized.

    There is a bit of a problem with silver as some may know, we can call it the weight to value ratio, if anyone has ever hefted a 1000 ounce bar, schedule your hernia operation. Its 62 pounds, but its not like a suitcase on a trip to Europe, its viciously concentrated.

    Its also the size of a very good sizd loaf of bread.

    The problem is if you have, ok, lets say a few. Well , your bank deals in tiny SD Boxes, you cannot bring in loaves of bread at 62 pounds per loaf. You have a problem. The weight to value ratio.

    In fairness you can do coins, even the hundred ounce bars, but there is a really serious practicality problem.

    So, maybe you go for a walk at 2 am, with your shovel. Quiet like mouse. problem superficially solved.

    But you could also unexpectedly die. Then what.

    This poor guy drank a bit, its possible i met him :) , but actually this is not in the slightest bit funny.

    These phony cops, who obviously went to considerable trouble to dress up as police, beat his wife, and kicked the shit out of him.

    There is nothing funny about this. He had a home safe, and coughed up the combination after they punched his lights out, and lost three quarters of a million dollars of silver. Google it.

    The moral. Dont shoot your mouth to your friends about silver. Shut the fuck up. Not a peep.

    You see, its not your drinking buddies you brag to, its the people THEY know. And this poor guy , who tokked too much got raped.

    THis is a service to the board. SHADDUP!!!

    You kind have to tell one trusted person, on the premise you both dont die together in a car accident.But jesus, silver is not a fork any more, its 40 bucks, govern yourself with assiduous caution.

    ReplyDelete
  117. Hi Turd, just wanted to post a thanks for your commentary and dedication. Can anyone here recommend a good book about futures for a newb?

    ReplyDelete
  118. Save_America1st

    care to elaborate on the filter?

    I googled and went to the website and am still a little unsure. How much did it cost and is it used by just dumping tap water into it?

    ReplyDelete
  119. just for fun, the final solution

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gw8up1te0Y&feature=relmfu

    ReplyDelete
  120. A MUST SEE FILM - National Inflation Association: 'College Conspiracy'

    http://www.domasjefferson.com/news/national-inflation-association-college-conspiracy

    ReplyDelete
  121. After reading some past posts, I have come to the conclusion that nobody knows what will happen.
    50% right is 50% wrong. We all can do that.

    ReplyDelete
  122. Something to think about for those considering buying physical silver but waiting for a bigger dip. I had the same thought but when I started to look at various websites, Tulving, APMEX, Gainesville, Golddealer.ca, etc and saw that many of the items for sale won't be shipping for a few weeks to a month, I realized the time to buy is now. I expect silver to run up now and then pull back again as the threat of no QE3 takes hold and perhaps silver will fall back to $28 but I thought to myself, what if that happens and the PM dealers have no inventory? What good would waiting have done? I also thought that even if silver falls to $28, the physical price may be right where it is now. Anyway, I wanted to share my thinking on the topic just in case any of you are waiting for the dip which may or may not prove beneficial to you.

    ReplyDelete
  123. "@scott, the USD is a worthless indicator of anything? Interesting, because Turd uses it as a measure all the time; why would that be if it's useless?" MARAdonna

    Thanks MARAdonna for sparking a lively debate, which makes for some very interesting comments in response to your nonsense. Your ideas don't really add a thing to this blog, except that it causes people to respond with some very brilliant remarks in defense of Turd and his and our mutually shared perceptions on the markets. You broke rule numbers 3 and 4.

    2. Anyone who maliciously attacks Turd because he does not call every tick accurately 100 per cent of the time will be banned.

    4. Anyone who appears to post only to stir up hate and discontent in this community while adding nothing of informational or philosophical value will be banned.

    The breaking of those two rules qualifies you to be banned, however since you sparked such a lively debate without using ad hominem attacks, I think we should reconsider your banishment.

    Your comment that the dollar is used by Turd as a measure all the time. Uses it to measure what?
    This is the flaw in your premise. The dollar is not a measure of anything, because it has no intrinsic value. Those who do use it as a their exclusive standard or measure of value will only be robbed by those who created this fraud. Scott was absolutely correct and you are absolutely wrong. All of us happen to operate financially in a cesspool of lies called the U.S. Dollar. Therefore, we have no choice but to use this lie as a measure of value, to some extent and at times. But, most of us here use real money as the true standard for measuring value in the long term. So, again you are wrong Turd does not use the dollar to measure anything's intrinsic worth, he uses silver and gold.

    Thank you MARAdonna for causing me to write this response. I thoroughly enjoyed stomping your ass into the ground intellectually. It was a joy to point out the flaw in your premise, which indicates how completely ignorant you are of economic fundamentals.

    ReplyDelete
  124. second, write down your bar numbers, put them somewhere else. Away from the bars, maybe the police can find them. Probably not but whats the downside.

    DIVERSIFY, this is the basic rule of investing. Spread it around, so that if something bad happens, its not all in one place.

    And most importantly shut up. Ordinary people do not comprehend numbers. Thats why they are ordinary.

    I once told a girl. i had ten million dollars of gold buried in my back yard. She was dumb enough to believe me. It was only 1.4. I was just trying to get her pants off.

    Guess who lost his pants.

    Any one know what a helicopter grid pattern is|? I worked in the oil and gas business, so i knew and dug it up on the first incursion.

    There were ten incursions and a home invasion, which we held off at gunpoint. I said gunpoint, and had these people been more professional, there would be no Vamoose on this site. Sme would say, that would be just fine. :)

    Shut up, shut, up, and shut up. Do not show your money if you have done well. You want to look like a street person. Not joking.

    ReplyDelete
  125. Me, Smith and Wesson, SIG, and AR..keep to ourselves.

    Metals are all over the map this evenning.

    ReplyDelete
  126. Turd can and does predict the future with amazing accuracy, but then so do you all. Its caused the law of cause and effect. There are a million ways that you can determine what will happen one minute from now, one day from now, ten years from now. It's just not with 100 per cent accuracy. That's the art we are all trying to perfect. Some can do it better than others with different aspects of reality. That is our purpose here, to help each other in that fine art.

    ReplyDelete
  127. I haven't been keeping score whether our gracious host is "correct" or "incorrect" but I have to say, I can't really think of too many times in the past 6 months where I thought to myself; "this guy is just a jackass in a funny hat, doesn't know the market if it fell on his head."

    It's simply a breath of fresh air to see a guy get out a Sharpie and a ruler and go to town. I started buying at $17 and still consider myself a n00b and like to keep it that way. The MINUTE I think I know everything (like the top-calling or bottom-calling pudwhackers that troll these blogs) I might as well find another way to protect myself from the coming wrath of global dysfunction. No one learns with their mind made up.

    Oh, and I'll take words than end in -amburger for $1000, Alex.

    ReplyDelete
  128. thanks shill. this was a hair raising experience. i was badly shaken. vamoose was an idiot, we have to understand an unfortunate truth.

    most people have nothing, paycheque to paycheque, so dont tok money, they get wildly jealous. trouble with a capital t.

    i dont know ginger but do i ever relate to growing things, we are trying to do that right now, , about the only worthwhile thing anyone can do is help others, and i do that. Do i remain pretty selfish, take a guess,often if people make money suddenly, well they just dont know like i didnt.

    I still had my massive inferiority complex, but all the numbers had changed.

    It was a brutal and scary lesson, keep your head down, silver is going to large numbers, probably startling numbers, and more and more people are going to be marginalized. This simply increases your social responsibility to help others. if you reach the point you cannot spend what you have. I consider that rude, you have to stand in.

    BUT SHADDUP, dont attract arrows.

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  129. Ricky...

    Here's the link to the seller of the Berkey that I bought on ebay.
    http://cgi.ebay.com/BERKEY-LIGHT-Water-Filter-4-Black-Berkey-Filters-/290561496752?pt=Small_Kitchen_Appliances_US&hash=item43a6d096b0
    They have changed this particular ad though. When I bought mine a couple months ago, it was the same Berkey Light system, but it came with 3 Berkey water filer bottles and was 209.00 w/ free shipping.
    They don't seem to be doing that right now. So this ad is for the Berkey Light system, but in stead of 3 filter bottles, it comes with 2 extra Black Berkey Filters for 331.00.
    I guess I got a better deal 2 months ago, but then again, I don't have the 2 extra filters like this link offers.
    I guess if you just scour the net like I did for a couple weeks you might find a better deal.
    But as I said before...I'm very happy and impressed w/ it.
    I have a Sweetwater hand water pump system that I use for hiking and camping, and it works great too, so I'm familiar w/ water filter systems.
    This one is great. I keep it right on my kitchen counter, and use the water everyday for drinks, cooking, and the pets drinking water.
    I haven't tested it yet with filtering my lake water through it. But I've filtered plenty of lake and river water through my Sweetwater pump filter w/out any bad effects, so I'm very certain the Berkey filters are as good as they say.
    Just wanted to share that w/ everyone.

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  130. Mr. Turd,

    Only one in five hundred that come here might have something nasty to say to you. I think the number is even less than that. Don't forget the thousands who do appreciate what you do here for us. We are way more important than the one idiot who has no idea what they are talking about.

    Also, notice how quickly we shot down that moron MARAdonna? These fools and moron trolls that come in here will every time be quickly disposed of with a vastly superior intellectual acumen, so really do we have to worry?

    Thanks again Turd for the best blog on the net.

    ReplyDelete
  131. Apple Tree

    Of course, it's too small of a picture to really see anything, but there she is. Freshly pruned last fall, and (finally) in full bloom now.

    Also, we finally got our popcorn planted in our garden just today. Everything is 2-3 weeks late around here. Too cold and wet.

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  132. PSLV

    I wasted the boards time advancing an abstruse argument about just how serious a menace PSLV was to the fractionally banked silver market. I will not belabor it.

    But people like Kid Dynamite, a transparent apologist for the cabal, have been slamming.

    Sprott made 3 sales, one reportable, the other other two non reportable. he reported, and it looked like he was selling silver. Oh kindly be sentient. His call is and remains 3 digits, deep into 3 digits.

    They were giving PSLV a 23 percent premium....meaning if he wanted to do the 400 million left on his approved prospectus in the US he could fuck the silver price to 80. But who would pay 62 for 48. And cost not JPM , although i wish, but cause real problems for the US treasury.

    Look peopole there is no silver physical in any material size. . His PSLV bars arrived 90 days late at the Royal Canadian Mint still warm. He blasted the fractional reserve silver racket off the face of this fine earth.

    So Sprott made 3 sales, one personal and reportable which he did, and two from his funds. What happened to the proceeds of about 200. Straight back into the silver market, some in stocks , most in metal. Tighten up physical some more, so they panicked.

    If you pay me 63 for my silver and i can rebuy it at 49, any further questions|

    All he did was capture a contrived JPM premium. He cannot do a PSLV issue at a 23 percent premium to the silver price, no competent person would buy it, so thay jammed it. Did it cost JPM to do this. peanuts, compared to the billions in lost margin on 70 dollar silver had he proceeded.

    Here is a confident and unequivocal statement. Eric Sprott will NEVER do another physical silver issue south of the 49th Parallel. Never. Some dope, now wearing the heavy footwear in the Potomac made a life altering error in approving that Prospectus.

    In conclusion , what was announced this week was a Canadian Physical silver issue, on account of being stymied. WE are participants in a silver war. .
    If I cannot revivify The 400 million left on PSLV , since the price is jammed, then we will do another issue but only cleared in Canada.

    And that happened last week. The audience is arguably more limited, its confined to non US, but it continues the story, this a subtle , artful squeeze on physical silver, the rest of the world can buy this new fund, its the same , metal, coin of the realm..

    People, we are in a war, powerful agencies at one anothers throats, its about cornering physical silver, and reversing the fractional banking multiple, its been going on for a year.

    I told Eric, dont take a holiday in the Hamptons, not the worlds greatest idea, but to question Sprotts integrity, be serious please, we are all just small players in a contemporary Hunt corner.

    If they slam,,, he buys. If they slam harder, he buys more. Does he have a bit of well heeled company, a fair possibility.

    One side are venous criminals, the other side people of iron principle, so who wins.

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  133. WASHINGTON -- One day before the federal government is scheduled to reach its debt limit, House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) said he is ready to make a deal to raise the debt ceiling and that Congress does not have to wait until the "eleventh hour" to do so.

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  134. string of letters and numbers... Link?

    ReplyDelete
  135. Found it. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/15/john-boehner-debt-limit_n_862125.html

    Whats the take? This cant be anything but bullish. Raised debt limit = more debt = more QE = more gravy.

    ReplyDelete
  136. I read this too, "lets get a deal done" = we will push our agenda through because if you say no democrats will be the ones that cause us to default. It's sidways political talk, similar to what is going on in the NFL. I "want" to get a deal done but joe blow wont agree to my terms

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  137. Eric,
    I can actually see your gorgeous tree pretty well when I click on the photo ...She's a beauty!! :] .....It looks like you have ALOT of land too! :o ........not jealous ....not jealous ...not jealous ....

    :D

    ReplyDelete
  138. Sorry, I should have referenced the Boehner quote. Yes, it was lifted from the Huff Po', but Boehner actually said it on Face The Nation today.

    ReplyDelete
  139. Eric,

    Basic Apple Cobbler: (I made peach tonight:)

    1 c. self-rising flour
    1 c. sugar
    1 c. milk
    1 stick melted butter
    2 c. sliced apples (or any fruit)
    sprinkle of cinnamon, nutmeg
    -Mix
    -Bake 350 1 hour

    Totally certain Mrs. Eric#1 has grander/better recipes than this but this is fast, simple, good old basic standby and it is YUM! :-}

    PS.......don't forget the vanilla ice-cream. :-]

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  140. Hey Maradona are you using that name because of the drug-alcohol using Diego Maradona the argentinian soccer player?, if so and you have that kind of idols, then that tells me everything.
    Turd technically speaking looks like gold will have the run (the one you predicted on January) to at least $1600 by June only if gold hold $1444 this week..silver could go to the $40 but is going to be hammered again before it even see $49....I think the GSR will favor gold in the next months. Thank Don Turd for the work you do for FREE in a NOTHING FREE world.

    ReplyDelete
  141. @MrMiyagi"...I have come to the conclusion that nobody knows what will happen."

    Especially Jon Nadler. This blog, and Turd's work, is SO much better than what that Nadler ding-a-ling spews out.

    ReplyDelete
  142. Three things:

    FIRST: Thanks, guys for the info on netdania charts. I went away from the board after I posted that question, I appreciate your quick response.

    SECOND: Dr. Durden and Ben Roberts 13 - I second both of your comments about Turd. Steady on, Turd. You're doing great and I (we) speak for a lot of folks. What I have noticed about your scenarios lately is this. Things happen pretty much as you foresee, but quicker. I know you didn't see the the Sunday nite May Day Massacre coming, but you did warn us on FRI about "Chupacabras" stalking the night. I believe the next week would have played out according to your scenario, but the EE saw a perfect opportunity for a most effective ambush and preempted the final rally prior to 5/6.

    This brings me to my real point, which is this. I still follow your guidance very closely, but I am beginning to consider the possibility that the EE is possibly timing their actions at least partially in reaction to what you advise. It's almost certain that Blythe, or more likely some of the Monkeys, read this blog, as well as others, and use what they learn, along with other fctors, to help them time their attacks. So, it may never be possible for you to be totally right. We all need to incorporate that into our thinking, IMO.

    I think you do pretty damn well and again, I second what Dr. Durden said. Where else can you get this kind of service? Free! Wow!

    THIRD: Are there two people posting here under the name Vamoose?! ;)

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  143. Just to clarify my previous post. We have often said that we are not big enough to play role in JPM's decision making. That may be true, but we re an "indicator" of what the "average" PM investor is thinking and doing. For that reason, I feel sure that someone over at JPM is paying attention to what is said here. Take it from a former intel officer, if I was them, I would be watching us.

    Besides, Turd, you have made it personal with BM. ;)

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  144. Is anyone else having issues with the lind-waldo website login? I think they have some minocks chewing on the power cables too tonight.

    oops, it came back up as I was typing this, but still acting strange. No quotes for July 11 silver yet on there hmmm.

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  145. "THIRD: Are there two people posting here under the name Vamoose?! ;)"

    I am SO glad to know I am not the ONLY one here with that thought!! LOL!

    Will the REAL vamoose please stand up! :D
    ;)

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  146. Posting multiple parts, sorry - entries keep being disallowed by Blogger. Have I mentioned I am REALLY looking forward to the new site?

    This is going out on a limb, and perhaps misplaced projection - but it feels true.

    Turd's generosity in sharing his experience, his (and our collective) success, and his [in my mind] impeccable honesty and empathy have drawn a large and growing bullseye on his back, attracting the venom and malice of the broadly defined EE who are increasingly actively trying to exploit what they perceive as weakness. And what non-sociopaths might recognize as exemplary humanity.

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  147. oldNavy I agree completely. Iused ot think we were too small a place for them to bother with, but now also believe we are being watched.

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  148. oldNavy: some quant shops now process twitter feeds in real-time, with special s/w to interpret and estimate retail investor/trader sentiment.

    "What big computers you have, grandma."
    "All the better to trade against you, my dear."

    My guess is JPM is not reading TF directly, but there will be quant shops processing the comments here and selling the resultant computerized analysis to bigger players.

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  149. If this were ever in doubt to anyone, I highly recommend people to check out and ponder this little provincial rag's musings on the subject. Just a few days ago, the existence of a cadre of commenters who 'correct misstatements of facts' on behalf of our favorite EE incarnation was confirmed to me personally by insiders in casual conversation, as if it were a minor, obvious detail.

    To all Turdites - here's a little something from a favorite author of mine, who writes often of hidden worlds concealed behind stage-sets, wires and painted canvas -- a simile all too apt for the world we find ourselves in now:

    "Develop a little self-righteousness. A lot of that is an ugly thing, God knows, but a little applied over all your scruples is an absolute necessity! It is to the soul what a good sun-block is to the skin during the heat of the summer. You can only captain your own soul, and from time to time some smart-ass psychologist will question your ability to even do that. Grow up! [...] To take responsibility for more than [your family] and your own soul is to ask for too much, and asking for too much is one of humanity’s more popular ways of courting disaster." Stephen King

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  150. Hey, Ginger. We didn't have any dessert tonight. Could you send down a wee bit of that peach cobbler? Mmmmmm.

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  151. Are The Fonz or Huxley Ann here tonight? I have comments for each of you.

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  152. Debt ceiling has many possible outcomes, short term that is.

    Don't raise it, watch an economy that relies on deficit spending to fuel artificial growth stall, then tumble. Watch a possible market crash from a liquidity drain, PM's with it at first, flight to cash, paper crisis.

    Raise it, confidence in the current markets will continue, we continue heading towards rampant inflation. The excess liquidity continues to travel from asset class to asset class.

    It's not as predictable as one wants to think, I for one am not placing a trade one way or the other just yet. There's no shame in missing a top or bottom, but rather buying strength and selling weakness.

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  153. John G. said... "My long-term gold and silver bullion is at a small, 200 year old private, single-location Swiss bank. I got access to it through SafeWealth, which I read about in Prechter's 'Conquer the Crash.'"

    FWIW, there are some who question if Safewealth passes the sniff test.

    http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=670

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  154. I'm not sure if someone has already answered this question but, when should be the last date one should by canned Pacific Salmon due to the Japan nuclear disaster?

    ReplyDelete
  155. @Sumo

    Good point. As we have already figured out, it's not only people we're dealing with/fighting. It's computers, algos and HFT. I think it has changed the PM game since 1/1/11 or so.

    Speaking of which, any thoughts here on how the new Hong Kong exchange will change the game, if at all? I have seen a few comments earlier on the subject.

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  156. I forgot to mention that raising it does not immediatlely bring on a spike in commodities and PM's. Could just be more of the same, up trends and of course corrections.

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  157. Large companies are building armies of personnel to directly mine, analyze and interact with social media comments. This has been the case for years, and now even the slowest to adapt are catching on. Like I mentioned earlier, look at SecDef statements on the priority taken by a) cyberdefense and b) financial crisis in terms of importance to our 'protectors'. Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean...

    OK, done with that for now. In terms of PM, take a look at this really simple 1-yr daily chart. This may be 'wishful squinting', but in my mind the current state of the price of silver is that it's at the lower edge of its channel, and pending the next few days' action, it will soon be time to BTFD.

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  158. OldNavy, :D
    I shouldn't have had dessert tonight.. ..Been dieting. :-{ ........But if you can overlook the butter, sugar, flour, and milk.......it's perfectly healthy. :D

    Somebody ..go get Eric out of the apple tree. lol.

    Ok. Well.. ..since it looks like silver isn't going to hit $50 tonight.. ...I'm gonna go sleep off my peach pie. :]]

    ReplyDelete
  159. @oldnavy I am here :) I'll check back a few more times tonight. Very excited about tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  160. Has anyone noticed this?
    Whenever silver has had a strong run in Jan-Mar it crashes slightly before or after the Easter weekend.


    crash of Easter 2008 (Mar23):
    http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/agmar08.gif

    crash of Easter 2006(Apr16):
    src="http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/agapr06.gif

    It may be another pattern worth noting.

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  161. @oldNavy

    Louis Cypher at screwtape files has a tinfoil hatter about the hong kong exchange.

    Screwtape files link

    ReplyDelete
  162. Check out the swift reversal on POSX after it touched 76. Not sure what Turd's 76.06 corresponds to on the cash POSX.

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  163. @vamoose

    How do you know Sprott put is pslv dollars straight into silver stocks? Perhaps that is his intention, but I wouldn't be surprised if he saw the dip coming and waited for the sell off to occur before putting that capital back to use.

    Has he released specific data?

    ReplyDelete
  164. Ginger if you are still awake, I like the self reliance and gardening talk. We should have more of that here, more preparation, less speculation. I'd doing an experiment myself this year, trying to figure out just how much farm space in terms of acres it takes to feed one person for one year. This includes two crops, summer and winter and taking advantage of storage and canning methods as best I can.

    I've become fond of my giant pumpkin patch in particular (dill atlantic giants) but also trying to specialize in perennials so I don't have to replant every year, so far artichokes, blackberries and asparagus.

    Anyway, I have just under three acres, and 4 people to feed so I'm hoping its close to sufficient. No livestock, if tshtf I'll become a vegetarian and probably quit smoking (tobacco)

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  165. @The Fonz

    Just wanted to thank you for sharing your strategy for the coming week. I HATE not making any money for another week, but I am hesistant to bet one way or the other on silver just yet, although I MIGHT try some SLV puts based on Turds call for a decline this week.

    Your idea has a lot of appeal to me. You're looking for the S&P500 to decline this week based on deficit and anticipation of QE2 ending, right?

    ReplyDelete
  166. Hey Mr Miyagi...wax on, wax off...you taught us that...did you forget?

    Nothing goes up in a straight line...if you want a reference look at Reichsmarks in the 1920s...some people made fortunes, long and short... though more short than long was the trend but there were some massive reversals as the Government intervened...sound familiar?

    If silver is being re-monestised then this is a good analogy because we are in a currency war.

    New site suggestion...after enough "Junks" (per ZH) then the comment gets flushed to a permanent Troll Thread...so anyone can check on the Troll Activity Meter for guidance.

    Thanks Turd, great work and good policy response to MARA-douche

    ReplyDelete
  167. @Robert Leroy Parker

    Thanks. Read it. Not preposterous, IMO. I have always kind of leaned towards that Chinese story having some validity.

    Maybe I'll buy a few GLD calls in anticipation...

    ReplyDelete
  168. @robert leroy parker

    Makes sense the article you referenced. The Chineese think and strategise long term unlike the west's selfish short sighted polititians.

    I do believe the world will have a petro based reserve currency within 12 months, which to my mind means Syria and Iran will have been neutralised and Rothschild controlled Central banks installed.

    Get ready for your 16 digit mark of the beast debit card.

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  169. Yes, I am betting that the S&P will be neutral or decline in the face of the debt ceiling debate and the IMF issue with Greece. The most important thing is that the FED doesn't know what will happen if the plug gets pulled. They won't get another chance at this game this year. In this instance they can pull the plug, no monetization for a few days and get the data they need to understand the effects of what they are doing. Also in this instance there won't be any long term damage to investors mindsets, it was just the debt ceiling after all. We may think they are all powerful but I think they need this data to continue and they will not have another chance at it. If I am wrong I certainly don't see losing much money, the market will not rocket up in these circumstances during this one week time frame. I will of course watch every day and if the pacework is fast I am not intending to be short past Thursday but I am giving myself 36 days on the options. I am not scared of missing a usable low in silver atm, things are so wild I feel I can catch it again as long as it is fairly soon.

    Also there is the matter power and a lesson to be taught, the senators have to be brought into line. If things go really poorly BOOM QEIII. That is not so bad for them either, they have a race to the bottom to win after all and Japan is making that complicated. I really really doubt they want someone else deciding the timing of when they have to monetize more, they really don't have a choice so sooner rather than later seems a possibility to me.

    In any event back into Silver on the pin at the latest. This dollar bounce could get gnarly on the short term too due to someones problems comprehending morality (IMF)

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  170. Silver meandering nonchalantly and going nowhere like a slowly dissipating fart.

    ReplyDelete
  171. I with the Fonz and Blorf. Fonz wrote:

    "In short I see risk here, and little to gain by hurrying. I see amazing opportunities to ride a short burst downward in a worst case scenario followed by a shockingly cheap PM buy in."

    At this time, I think the less risky trade is to go short. QEII is over-- that's the new story. You may think this delusional MOPE. But this is the new reality driving the markets. They just took out the foot soldiers of QEII-- the commodities. The broader market is next.

    My homework tonight is how to play this. I'd like to identify key equities that stand as proxies for their individual sectors. ANd short them. But the safer play is to buy the short ETF's. I am actually less interested in playing the moves in the miners and more interested in catching the next breakdown in confidence in the S&P, the Russel, and the Nasdaq.

    The Fed cannot save the dollar, kill the commodities, keep the long bond propped and keep the stock market humming. Not without QE3. I'm betting short. Which is a tough thing to do if your head is wrapped around going long. It may be time for folks to leave their comfort zone and short markets they heretofore have ignored.

    Those in agreement, what's your short strategy? Where are the sitting ducks when the DOW collapses?

    ReplyDelete
  172. donnojackshit, maybe we are base building

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  173. @SSK

    I have postulated that the DOW is going to get hammered when it hits 13000, but as many have pointed out that the PPT won't allow this to happen until Barry gets re elected. Maybe my time frame is out but I surmised a take down of about 20% by end June with a major collapse by November this year (90% down from 2008 high) which would closely resemble 1929 patterns.

    Anyone do any research or correlation on the DOW then and now?

    ReplyDelete
  174. Thanks, again, Fonz!

    @Kuminari

    I think it was you who said you had a NATGAS play that did great last week. Would you mind sharing what it was. If you don't mind me picking your brain, that is.

    I am a believer in what T. Boone Pickens has said, that we CANNOT drill our way out of the coming energy shortage/price crisis and NATGAS is the inevitable transition fuel. Just curious what are the early benefitters of that.

    Mahalo.

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  175. Kuminari

    I meant to mention WPRT. I am already on that one. I like it a lot, but don't currently hold any.

    ReplyDelete
  176. http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6945451n

    Wall Street: The Speed Traders

    This made me appreciate Turd and all his skills efforts and time he gives us each day...and the other traders here also, and what were all up against....good luck everyone.

    ReplyDelete
  177. damn! lost my comments!

    @SilverBleve

    I hope so, although only a wee build before we blast through $50.

    I convinced many friendscand family to buy silver only to have it get the stuffing knocked out of it.

    ReplyDelete
  178. Cramer today (I know, I know, it's Cramer. Spare me the spitballs):


    "What's really going on with the strong linkage between the euro and our market? I have turned to my colleague Matt Horween, a man I refer to repeatedly as both a great market thinker and a terrific forensic accountant, who has just returned from the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) and he's got a free perspective.

    Here's his thinking:

    First, the dollar is going higher not because of great growth or concomitant higher rates here, but because rates are on hold in the eurozone due to a worsening situation in the PIIGS and the future of the euro itself. In other words, the dollar's going higher because traders think bad things are happening all over the place -- it may be wrong but that's what they think -- and good things are not happening in the U.S."


    This dovetails with Blorf's King Dollar post earlier. None of us on this board want to believe it any more than we wanted to believe that silver was about to take a 30% hit, but the near term is dollar positive, Dow negative and god only knows where pm's stand in this game. Easiest way to short the market is to buy the dollar. Pinch your nose and buy some UUP. But the real money is catching the S&P or the NAZ at these levels and ride it down to 10000 or below. The DJA is right now the equivalent of silver at 48.

    There's just one problem: shorting the S&P has been a good way to lose your money since the flash crash. I still think it's a safer bet to short the broader market than to call the bottom in silver or gold.

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  179. donnojackshit there was a dip about an hour ago to 34.80 I tried to buy but lindwaldo seemed to ba having technical difficulties.

    There has been much discussion on turds site about miners stocks, but what about investing in smelters/ refineries? I can't find any that are publicly traded, are they out there? It seems they stand to benefit perhaps even more than miners, as their costs are more fixed (except for fuel of course).

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  180. Well I guess if people are interested in this I'll give out my price points and their interactions.

    Silver resistance at 35,31,28. Dollar up silver down, but not for long lol. Catch 28 get 7 fast, catch 31 get 4 pretty fast.

    Gold 1450, 1420, 1320 Dollar up Gold down but not for long. I cannot see this getting to 1320 even for a moment. Gold might not bounce back to 1500 quite as fast, its not as volatile.

    SP 500 resistance at 1280 4% retracement
    Then SDS to 22.50 from 20.43. Options around .60
    3.5x return

    SP 500 resistance at 1180 12% retracement
    Then SDS 25% to 25.50 .60 option 7.5x return

    The SP has mucho support at 1180, might push past it but not for long unless major crash. If SP goes up I'll tap out at 50% loss of initial funds.

    Dollar resistance at 76, 77, 78, 81. Very nice overhead resistance here to beat through, every level ratchets PM's down and pressures the established gold and silver resistances.

    If wishes were fishes we would get the 12% retracement with a nice 31 or 28 buy in before the dollar remembers it needs... BRRRRAAAAIIINS.

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  181. Re - Home Invasions

    For $500 - 700.00 you can buy a professional grade perimeter system. Wireless easy mounted multiple sensor system with monitors for your immediate property around your house, walks, and driveway. Nothing gets by the system without chiming you at any hour. Different chimes sound for different areas. You know the thugs are there before the thugs know you know. Mine has saved me three for three in the last 2 years against thugs and mischevious teens. Two of the occasions I was sawing logs in the we hours of the morning only to be awaken by the sensors. The sensor beam directs out up to 50 feet and trips with movement. I sleep good. If you have an interest I bought mine from Jansen Electronics on the net. Any 5th grader can install. Two screws on the sensors and adjust beam. Replaced batteries once in 2 years. Up to 9 area sensors per monitor. If your loaded for bear, I would highly recommend a perimeter system to complement your defenses. My family is trained to respond with force 24/7. We use color codes. Red is grab the guns, yellow is unsure of potential threat, green is false alarm. We hold practice drills and have designated locations to defend. Interior lights remain out and guns have laser sites except for shotguns.
    Just good safety in this age of people dressing like the police and doing home invasions. No one should ever open a door even to a cop. By the way, I live in a 24/7 guarded compound. Crime happens everywhere. The sensors are almost bullet proof if you cross the beams so they can not be easily removed. Paint them to match their surroundings.

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  182. Fonz,
    Thanks for sharing your homework. Appreciate it.

    SSK

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  183. TF, thanks for the lengthy post. Appreciate everything you put into this.

    For those asking TF about what will happen at the end of QE2, and I'll be corrected if I'm incorrect, but my understanding is TF has been unequivocal that in his opinion, QE will be here to stay.

    Looking at the Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment & price stability, unemployment at highly elevated levels & the Fed has stated, essentially, it has inflation under control.

    To achieve its legal mandate, it is my opinion the Fed must extend QE for the foreseeable future.

    There is one practical point that hopefully someone can shed more light on. QE2 ends on June 30th. Gov't will allegedly run out of $'s on August 2nd. FMOC meetings are on June 12-13 & August 9th.

    What I'm wondering is this: can the FED communicate its intention of proceeding with QE3 if the Gov't cannot agree on raising the debt ceiling? Iow's, what's the point of treasury auctions if the $'s can't be used by the Gov't?

    Ergo, here's the options:

    a) Debt ceiling not raised by June 12-13th, QE3 announcement delayed by FOMC until August 9.

    b) Debt ceiling raised, QE3 announcement on June 12-13th.

    Also, my understanding is there is no date set in stone for the 'vote' & an agreement can be reached anytime.

    If so, the Fed has passed the baton to Republicans & Democrats - if there's a fallout from this in the financial markets, the politicians will be blamed.

    And the politicians will say they couldn't raise the debt ceiling as the voters didn't want it raised without spending cuts. And the democrats want tax hikes if there's spending cuts.

    We all would agree the debt ceiling will be passed, but when?

    http://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/161317-sunday-show-wrap-boehner-says-the-debt-ceiling-must-increase

    From a politician's perspective, one may be unpopular for voting for raising the debt ceiling. But, imo, one will be even less popular if one votes against raising the debt ceiling only to see the financial markets falter.

    So, it is in the interests of all politicians, imo, to raise the debt ceiling by June 12-13th so the Fed can then adhere to its legal mandate.
    And to adhere to this dual legal mandate requires, imo, further QE.

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  184. SSK

    I've used DXD and SDS in the past. But I'm thinking if the short is more of a hedge for what you are holding, then it's best that your short match precisely as possible to what you've got. I've got miners that I won't part with, so if I get the urge I may use some DUST this time around. That's a double short miners ETF.

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  185. With the debt ceiling going to be agreed upon tomorrow, Washington DC will be in center stage. A raise in the debt ceiling, should lead to the dollar's continual bear market decline if there is no news in the EURO. However, the problem is the EURO is trash too, with Greece and this ultimate red herring IMF rape scandal (anyone think that Reuters would publish this if it was not suppose to become mainstream? mute point nonetheless).

    Given the fact that tomorrow is Obama's time to show his economic seriousness I can see the stock market rallying much rather than crashing. If the stock market is to crash tomorrow alongside Obama's time to shine, you can be certain that the death of the dollar is VERY near.

    So I will assume that Captain Bernanke is still in control, as he is under question himself. The world needs to see "results," not more corrections. And the Bernanke will give it to them. If we have dollar down, pm's could go up with gold showing the way with silver to follow in the general direction. Crude should have plenty to feast on tomorrow as the market digests the middle east uncertainties and long-term dollar weakness. Or, we could get a good old fashion stock market rally and blythe masters manipulation in the commodity complex to stall on Obama's day to shine. We haven't had a good blatant commodity EE bashing on obvious updays.

    Anything is really possible, but I expect the DOW to go like this:
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Fd_dIsEkgvI/TM4bcIYuswI/AAAAAAAAAxQ/m_4vCxBZWyE/s320/israel+inflation+vs+stock+prices+in+the+80s.jpg

    @ Ben Roberts

    Thanks for clarifying for me, I left myself open with a poor response. You always have very well-constructed posts, bravo.

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  186. Ginger

    No, no, not a lot of land. Just a typical suburban back yard. Nothing to be jealous of unless you are jealous that it doesn't take me too long to mow the lawn!!

    ON the pies, actually I MAKE THE PIES, and Mrs. Eric and our daughter EAT THEM. OK, now you can be jealous!!

    When the Mac's are in season, we get them nice and tart, just a tiny bit on the green side, and take a day or two and bake up maybe eight extra and put them in the freezer. Then we always bring a pie for every holiday, birthday, etc. until they are gone. They heat up just like new in the oven. Huge family favorite.

    Other than getting just the right apples, the only other "trick" to my recipe is that I always use lard for the crust, never crisco or butter. Pretty standard recipe otherwise. I can type it all out if you are interested, though the handling of the crust is something that is hard to convey in writing, best to be demonstrated.

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  187. Turd,

    wondering why you expect a rally in june july when they happen to be seasonally the weakest months for precious metals... i believe we may be in for a top followed by a correction till late july. just a hunch as that is how it has been playing out.

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  188. The Fonz - For your S&P options you listed, what month(s) are you talking about?

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  189. Hmm I guess I shouldn't assume the debt ceiling is tomorrow, but with first Bernanke on Thursday, Geithner on the weekend in his letter, and now Obama over the weekend. To cap it all off Boehner is now saying "lets strike a deal" the night before we officially breach the debt ceiling** leads me to believes its already a done deal and this is just dramatics.

    **However, I do read that Geithner can manipulate some numbers to keep things afloat in emergency powers, but I doubt they want that headline verse bi-partisan cooperation in "America's moment to show it will not default on investors" (how ironic).

    Pure speculation, but we will see I guess.

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  190. Well well well, now a little competition for the Comex courtesy of the capitalistic Chicoms? Teaching that once proud bastion of free markets USA.


    "Shanghai Gold Exchange cuts silver margins, volumes soar"

    http://www.sharenet.co.za/news/Shanghai_gold_exchange_to_cut_silver_margin_requirements_/3221517685e72110809b7bf7b70b2b37

    Hope this fly in EE's ointment becomes an 800 lb gorilla.

    Haven't been around lately but want to say hello to all the good folks here and thanks to Turd for staying steady at the helm. Looking forward to the new site and will gladly pay the price of admission.

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  191. Anyone have insight on how bond market would react to debt ceiling increase?

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  192. @Rowley June :) remember that I am considering losing half the money I bet on this though :) It's risky, so bet what you can lose and no more.

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  193. I have a surprise for you tomorrow, Mr. Ferguson!

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  194. SoccerDad

    Here are the commercial salmon fishing seasons:

    http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/fishing/pdfs/commercial/fishingseasons_cf.pdf

    I like the sockeye, so I'll focus on that. Generally speaking, it runs mid June to mid August, though Prince William Sound and Copper River start mid May. It follows then, that anything you buy right now, and most anything you buy until mid June will have to be from the prior years catch and therefore immune to any radiation issues. Starting in mid June, then you could possibly have issues, though they will still be working off prior years inventory for a while yet. I believe the risks are pretty slight, but still, there's a part of me saying just order a case or two right now and then monitor the situation for the next couple years. Why not?

    I've tried A LOT of different brands and these are my favorites. Last time I talked about these someone complained about the prices. I replied that I never said they were cheap, I just said they were the best!!

    For skinless boneless sockeye:

    http://www.vitalchoice.com/shop/pc/viewPrd.asp?idproduct=25&idcategory=222

    For canned smoked sockeye (I just had some today! Awesome):

    http://tonkaseafoods.com/index.php?main_page=product_info&cPath=6&products_id=17

    bon appetit!!

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  195. So, from Blythe, does "tomorrow" mean "Monday during and on either side of US trading hours" or "Tuesday"?

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  196. 1. Debt ceiling will be agreed on tomorrow, will be increased. Very bad for the dollar!

    2. Don't worry though, Greece will be made to default tomorrow! That's good for the dollar!

    3. Obama wants to get elected. Obama WILL be elected. Come on, you all know this.

    4. Oil will reach $200 by the end of the year.

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