Friday, May 6, 2011

Stabilizing

Just a quick note this morning.

As expected, the BLSBS report "surprised" this morning with an NFP number of +248M. As you know, I'd expected the metals to hang in there this week and then have the BLSBS cause a spike in the POSX which would begin a two-week downward consolidation in the PMs.

I thought the POSX could rally to 74.50 - pretty good.
I thought gold could trade down toward 1525-45 - not so good.
I thought silver would trade down toward 45 - only off by $10. What's the big deal?

Anyway, the point is, pattern is still present and there are some things that are still predictable. This string of 5 consecutive margin hikes is as cruel as it is unprecedented. The central planners are taking great pains to cover their policy mistakes and blame the evil "speculators". Even that worthless, empty suit Chilton has finally shown his true colors. Just another bureaucrat hack.

However, for now we still have a relatively free flow of capital around the globe. The tide has rushed out but it will, most assuredly, come rushing back in at some point. My thought all along (go back and watch the last Wicked Witch video for a reminder) was that after rolling over by today, the metals would consolidate through May 20. In the end, we rolled over earlier and much deeper than I'd expected but, nonetheless, the time schedule remains the same.

Let's see if the metals can begin basing from here. Perhaps silver will spend the next two weeks between 34 and 40. Gold should stay between 1480 and 1520. Then the fun begins anew as we turn the corner into June.


WOW! I'm pleasantly surprised to find that I have a last of 35.25 in silver and 1494 in gold! OK, that's a start. Let's keep it going, finish green and try to relax over the weekend. TF

122 comments:

  1. I hope it consolidates at least!!!

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  2. thanks Turd. Keep up the good work and let's hope this recent downturn flushed out the trolls.

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  3. Well, hello volatility to the upside. +$2 in less than an hour? I was about to post that we had breached (my amateurish) channel in silver from 8/24 -- where the midline was the upslope from 8/24 - 12/31, but it looks like someone pulled out a stick-save at the last minute.

    @Fleve - for your RSI values, what are you comparing silver TO? Gold?

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  4. Could we see similar price action in Silver today as we saw in 2006? In both times we saw margins being increased, similar timing in the runs & commercials covering shorts... could we be headed for a double top at around $50?

    http://www.bullionbaron.com/2011/05/did-increasing-margins-break-silver-in.html

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  5. OK Mr. Soros and Mr. Slim-
    Please do sell more.

    To all troops in the field, if you are tired, stay out. Weak hands in the fight will not help. This one is for guys with muzzleloaders and this time Blythe it is very personal.

    Remember that there is another margin hike on Monday for silver.

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  6. bart chilton can blow me, what a total pos, he should resign if he had a conscience. good cop bad copping with that common thief gensler

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  7. @ Evil

    Hope you got my message on the other thread, if not want to make sure you read it:

    Ooops, I think I messed up, and made a general observation about one of your comments without knowing any of your other comments. My ignorance and rant against you was mis-informed. I am very sorry for suggesting otherwise. Your information seems honest, I am sorry I so harshly misjudged. I have been reading so much stuff the last few days I may have snapped a bit. I sincerely apologize.

    I made a mistake of assuming, and I unfairly ranted. Please do not let idiot comments like mine stop you, for usually they are just ignorant and not well-founded (as was the case with my rant).

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  8. I was hoping for a bit more downward movement...I don't have much dry powder left and was hoping to pick up more physical at $32-33. Silver is up. the POSX in diving, I better get to the coin shop now.....



    http://highfrequencytraitor.blogspot.com/

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  9. I dipped in my toe again a while back. I don't mind selling my main position. That thing had potential suicide trading written all over it. I sure as hell ain't done trading silver, but I'm going to be more careful from here on out. Smaller positions, more in and out, and most importantly, rules that I'll follow stringently.

    On the silver RSI thing. Look at a weekly silver graph with an RSI opened. Every time silver goes above 80, it stays there for a while, but so far it has always come down again extremely violently. 80+ RSI isn't a sure-sign to sell, but it sure is a sign of warning that things might just be going too far. In the future, at that point I'd probably stay in, but stay careful. Last time euphoria got the better of me, same with, it would seem, a lot of people here.

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  10. I would think the margin hike is already priced in considering it has been announced ahead of time.

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  11. bot a chunk of agq and sold slv puts and bot gld, don't follow me i'm a masochist though!

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  12. Scott - careful. you may be playing into the hands of one who uses a handle that is deserved. Who would assign themselves a name like that?

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  14. Just got paid off to the coin shop.

    Hopefully I can benefit from others weakness.

    Only the strong survive.

    Oorah

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  15. Bart Chilton on CNBC...

    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000020494

    Keep the faith!

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  16. LET THE HEALING BEGIN, AMEN!

    http://seculartrends.blogspot.com/2011/05/why-bottoming-process-starts-today.html

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  17. A clip from Ted Butler's latest. He and I don't share the same opinion that the CFTC will do the right thing, but Butler has been a silver warrior for decades.

    "Even though silver investors feel frightened and crummy, my point is that never before have the commercial silver shorts taken such a financial beating. Even in the current sharp sell-off, which the commercials have induced and are buying into aggressively, they are still incurring steep losses, as these positions were largely sold short originally when silver was in the teens. I know silver investors are feeling financial anxiety currently, but it is important to remember the shorts have been savaged over the past 9 months. Most importantly, the commercial shorts have been proven to have been on the wrong side of the silver market and have moved aggressively to close out those losing short bets. This is unprecedented.

    Quite simply, the commercials have been buying on the way up in silver prices and are now buying on the way down. This should be confirmed in this week’s COT and Bank Participation Reports. When the commercials are buying silver no matter whether the market is surging or crashing, that sends out a strong signal. That signal is clear and unmistakable – the commercials expect much higher silver prices soon. No one buys anything in the expectation it will go down in price. The commercials are buying silver, collusively and urgently, because they believe the price will be substantially higher soon enough. Amid all the talk that the silver bubble has popped, the commercials are putting their money on the line and are buying silver like never before. This buying signal should not be ignored."

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  18. I would like to point out that the silver to gold ratio is sitting at 42 at the moment after hitting 44.5. I am curious of people's opinion if that ratio still might hit 16:1.

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  19. I think our buyers of size just arrived.

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  20. @Jack

    Chilton is the CFTC shill that is "investigating" JP Morgan on silver manipulation. Essentially, they're looking the other way.

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  21. The worm looks to be turning this morning. But let's wait to see if it's real.

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  22. Turd says tide, I say bath tub... I do think money will rush back in again, just not sure when.. days? weeks? months?

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  23. @Fleve
    Weekly RSI 80 is a total sell. It's all hot air above there. Sell into strength in tranches up there..next time :)

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  24. @Michael
    Short covers here, not BOS returning.

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  25. Thanks Turd & all you seasoned traders who
    help to provide some light in this very dark drama. Luckily my paper longs are just few
    miners and a little AGQ bought at 355 - money i can afford to lose.No gain without a little of that harsh schoolmistress - Pain.

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  26. that was fast; got stopped out of agq for small profit already; one of those markets

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  27. I noticed that Fox Buisiness Network has removed the silver price from the rollover ticker that is on the bottom of the screen.

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  28. @Scisco yes I expect it will hit 16:1 and possiblly lower but not anytime soon. Gold could be over $3000 when that ratio is achieved.

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  29. Netdania 1 min chart on silver
    $35.80 peak on strong volume.

    Those JPM 2010 shorts were thought to be around $28-$30. If BM started covering with calls and long positions in the $30 range, the monkeys may be buying now with all the retail paper being panicked. Plus, they have Monday's margin increase to play with.

    We should not charge into this like Pickett.

    But, I am having some fun sniping at these price points.

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  30. @ Vamoose

    You seemed to have pegged this a few weeks back. I think you said you'd be getting back in around 33-34.

    Would like to hear your thoughts...

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  31. ferretflat - I've noticed that too. On CNBS they run the loop without metals about ten times before the price comes up.

    There are no coincidences. Must. Buy. Bonds. And. Apple. And GE...

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  32. Thanks Scott. Both you and evil are comments I enjoy. We will get it going again just going to take a few weeks.

    I bought this morning Ag @34 and I'm tempted on adding shorts to my equities account. DIA, gm, tm, aapl shorts. I think evil might be on to something

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  33. @Jedi

    You dont think mondays margins are priced in?

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  34. Looks like Netdania's volume chart on Silver is holding at $35.20. Volume is good and the flags are starting to show up on the candlestick 1 min chart.

    I'm with the guys talking about the coin shops.

    I'm going in for a partial purchase today and another on Monday.


    TO PABLO- I wanted to respond to you yesterday. You are here to prep, not to sell out in FRN's. You are doing the correct thing, but you are thinking about your assets as being denominated in Federal Reserve Notes. Your assets are NOT denominated in FRNs. Your assets are just what they are...your silver and your prep holdings. The FRNs are only a vehicle to achieve that stability.

    Your family is unfortunately acting like a liability (both emotional and literal). They will become your greatest asset if they quit bitching about the FRN paper price and start thinking about building physical and tangible holdings for the long haul.

    This paper price for silver is a lie...EBAY is settling silver at $50+ ounce for some coinage.

    The local coin stores are the same way...at least $10 premiums over spot.

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  35. Did Carlos Slim also divest from Silver? I didn't hear that anywhere, I thought he only just bought into silver miners recently last year.

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  36. Bought in to NGD (Atlee's baby), TRE (pure spec funny money on this one), and DGP this morning. Not at the best prices, but hey, you've got to throw your hat in the ring. I'm keeping a close eye on oil. There might be short opportunities on any oil rally. SCO is my new go to oil short.

    My problem-- and I'm sure I'm not the only one-- is that I have so many capital losses in miners like EXK, SLW, GPL and even GG that I can't buy them back for 30 days for tax purposes. So, I'm forced to buy shares I know less about, i.e. NGD.

    Och, TRE just went red. That stock is a wild card.

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  37. This recent move is probably 80% bull trap, we will hit $33-$32 today during market hours today I believe and that "should" be the bottom.

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  38. i'm a bull with the rest of them, but coin shops and online sellers are NOT adding $10 to the POS. I find that nonsensical, sorry.

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  39. @AG
    The news story said Slim sold paper short to hedge future mine production at present prices. As reported which may have little or nothing to do with the truth :)

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  40. I am in at 34.83. They may knock it lower and I am certain we will visit 50 again in less than 4 months. I do not care if it goes lower. I for one am jumping the shark :)

    "I thought silver would trade down toward 45 - only off by $10. What's the big deal?"

    Turd, thank you. Your honesty about misjudgment is a lesson that has a very high value to those learning to trade, I respect you more for it.

    Tell me though, when you misgauged the extent silver would drop what did you learn from it?

    with respect,

    The Fonz.

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  41. discounting Ebay of course.

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  42. Kevin- if you are looking to buy physical at the local coin store, you would be safe to go today. You might lose a few bucks on Monday, but the sale appears to be good today.

    I do not trust the paper price of silver at all right now because COMEX and JPM Chase must be fighting for their survival.

    I told a banker I know yesterday that I was royally po'd with his bank because they were playing roulette with the global economy. They said nothing but that the bank had informed its own employees that the employees were not allowed to trade options or securities except through specific firms now. Apparently, the bank not only wants to control the employee's time, but also how the employee invests and saves.

    Get a load of this too...the bank told the employees that ANY family members also needed to disclose where their positions were being held and in what brokerages.

    LOL

    They're weaker than they look.

    It's all paper crap and no physical to back.

    Bunch of liars looking to run to Venezuela...TF's cartoons are probably more accurate than t-ville citizens think.

    Otherwise, why would the trolls show up in such numbers?

    By the way Mr. Soros, keep selling your silver.

    LOL

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  43. XAG 5min RSI been over 60 since 9am. Not a buying opportunity, except for physical. Good enough point for that in small measure. My feeling is 32-33 not over yet, just maybe not anymore today, or maybe big dump around 3pm pre-close? There's something to NOBODY wanting either side of this trade over the weekend :)

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  44. i have to say KITCOs website really sucks in the crunch. It's like Nadler's running that thing on a Commodore 64 from his basement or something and cant handle traffic when you need it most.

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  45. Yes, Slim has been selling off silver futures along with Soros. When they take delivery of their discounted physical is the question now.

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  46. Minera Andes is my hero this morning.

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  47. Rallies are being strongly sold into.
    This is OK.
    IF silver can continue a bit higher, some short covering will begin.

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  48. Will 33 ever be retested? On one hand it would seem likely as people "should" be hesitant of being long over the weekend considering the previous bloodbath. Not saying that its logic, just saying its human.

    On the other hand i suspect the shorts would like to begin take profits pretty bad right now.

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  49. To Daniel-
    If you have that source, post it.
    The coin shops in this are DEFINITELY adding a $10 premium to silver purchases of low quantity.
    If you don't believe me, so be it.
    I don't buy in those quantities or shops, but the point is that the $10 premium is real.

    Gainesville coins?

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  50. Back in the game! Just bought 3 x 10oz Ag bars on Bullion Direct for 37.50 p/oz.

    Kept an equal amount of ammo dry in case...

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  51. Well my coin shop was +$1 last night. As I'm sure they are today.

    As for the online retailers Apmex, Tulving, Gainsville, etc...nowhere near +$10. If anyone off the street pays that they need a new hobby IMHO.

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  52. Gainsville Coin. 1oz. $36.57 generic.
    ASE 2011 unsearched - $40

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  53. Eric,

    Minera Andes, Golden Predator, Silverquest all looking really good on my board

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  54. Do we still expect short covering to commence around $37?

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  55. Just thinking that if the market tanks next week like many have said would happen...that does NOT bode well for silver...SI lags the market on upticks and leads it down, at least since the beginning of this week and even today.

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  56. I'll take a nibble long if I can get a 5min RSI of 30 :)

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  57. ewc58
    MInera, First Majestic, Endeavour for me. :D

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  58. @Brian
    I do not believe the indexes have a near-term rosy future until firm QE3 belief is in. I further agree that silver (and gold to a lesser extent) will dog out along with them, though more sideways as metals have already tasted some nasty down. Maybe a slow 1-3% bleedoff every week for 2 months?

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  59. And how 'bout that Great Panther? That sumbitch ain't dead yet.

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  60. Pailin
    That potential 2 month bleed off is why I puked up so much yesterday. Don't need the stress. What I have now is stuff I can live with come hell or high water.

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  61. Eric, good on ya.

    I'd love to get in on Tahoe Resources at these prices but opted for more Argento this morning instead.

    Metals & Miners: notice, metal is 1st :-)

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  62. The dip buying is sure looking promising.

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  63. Out of ZSL, into AGQ and DGP a bit.

    Atlee... TBT gapped up overnight and is wiggling a bit.

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  64. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  65. Eric#1

    GPL had better to not be dead - I am looking for it to $5 really soon.....

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  66. I should have posted this one yesterday, but it may still apply.
    Lloyd Bridges in Airplane! "Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit...."

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeI5ke0BENw

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  67. Chilton...

    Other than the margin issue (I know that's huge, but perhaps he's become attached to his weekly pay cheque...lol), seems to me he's still one of the few allies we have on the inside.

    Going forward (not a fan of that phrase but fits here), my biggest worry is how well the margin limit scam worked... and, since it was executed with impunity, will they escalate the dirty tricks in the next run up?

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  68. Eric,

    What are the ticker symbols for Golden Predator and Silverquest. I can't find them on Yahoo.

    Thanks.

    How about this folks-- were making money on long silver bets

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  69. Pulled a 10oz Silvertowne bar from storage and now have it at my desk, ala Original Eric and his soveriegns. Will be holding it when weighing trading decisions to better help me think... "Should I add here? What do you think, Mr. Miner? What about you, Mr. Mule?" So just like Trinity B, I now have an imaginary "my team" to consult with. Sweet.

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  70. QE3 is going to be a tougher sell with all of the positive spin being given the job numbers. Notice, though, it looks like the FED bought 28 billion(?) in treasuries last week.

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  71. ROckin

    You and me both. But I think a lot of folks bailed recently. My post was more along the lines of

    "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated"

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  72. Just sold all of my puts and I'm buying back in now slowly. The crazy movements of the past few day have been very entertaining! My productivity at work as gone for a shit though.

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  73. In the long run PMs are it. So buy now. Look at the value of PMs Vs. other assets.

    http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/04/22/john-exter%E2%80%99s-inverted-pyramid-of-assets-2/

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  74. agauinvest

    The market will come down next week, this is all planned to get QE3 a blessing from everyone and to get dumbass, oh I mean Obama re - elected. They are playing the world like fiddle - we are just the pawns for their little game.

    The old saying cheaters never win - but they are getting rich doing it.

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  75. Guys,
    the situation looked quite similar to FOMC day last week, so I full loaded at premarket around 8:20-8:40 AM.

    I was also inspired by Ed Steer's comment this morning:
    "If I was a stock trader...and buying the dips...I would be a big buyer this morning when the markets open. I think that Ted Butler's advice earlier in this column is good advice...you don't have to pick the exact bottom...you only have to be close. I think we're close."

    I strongly suggest to subscribe his daily news letter.
    http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/home

    One question. If silver and oil got hard hit by margin hike, wouldn't it be gold's turn next time? Since silver looked like him bottm, would it be wise reallocate portfolio more toward to silver from gold at this point?

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  76. TF, thanks for all your posts and charts and inputs but the truth is that I don't make my decisions based on your analysis. I just read your info just for entertainment and nothing more also I wanted to thank you for all your efforts. My suggestion is that please don't feel obligated that you have to answer to anyone about your predictions cause after all you ARE NOT A PAID FINANCIAL ADVISER. So please keep up the good work and thanks for the great laughs. You are the best. By the way don't quit your day job.

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  77. Up $3 in 2 hours is very impressive!

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  78. @Pailin,
    If you didn't see it here before, it was far more likely >100m oz @ $30, good for 2-3 years... but done back in Jan-Feb. Maybe he added to what was there since, but the news is definitely not being served hot.

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  79. SSK

    Those are ewc58's, not mine. Don't know.

    I've basically stopped looking into every little miner that I see a mention of. I've got a list of 20 names that I have a real Jones for, rought equal parts, and I plan to just leave them alone. I hesitated to just put them blatently out there while things were hot. A lot of lurkers just wanting to blindly buy anything. But now that we are all boiled down to the core, here are mine, alpha order by U.S. ticker:

    First Majestic
    Allied Nevada
    Argonaut Gold
    Avino Silver
    Bralorne Gold
    Brigus Gold
    Claude Resources
    Endeavour Silver
    Fortuna Silver
    Great Panther
    Gammon Gold
    Impact Silver
    Kirkland Lake Gold
    Kaminak Gold
    Lake Shore Gold
    Levon Resources
    Minera Andes
    New Gold
    Timmins Gold
    U.S. Gold

    I like to just stick with the regular name. Avoid confusion for people with different U.S. and Canadian tickers.

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  80. Looks like silver is clawing its way back up...and the POSDX is doing a couple of "Calvin bounces"...a upside correction? I was wise, followed the advice of trusted friends and advisors (Turd among them) did my due diligence, and increased my physical holdings by 20% yesterday...SWEET! BTFD! FUBM! Great blog, Turd. YOU ARE THE KING TURD OF THE SILVER PILE! All hail the TURD!

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  81. The worm is turning... wonder how volatile the upside will be...

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  82. I don't know how to tell you guys this any other way, so I'll just repeat, this is some small short covering. It's not re-establishment of longs. Would you buy big here? Okay, so why would anybody else? The goalposts are now at 32 and under. Not to say they'll be hit (like waiting for 22 in January!) but that's where many bulls that still exist are looking. If you hated this week, you might just want to sell into this and expect to come back next week and save $2-$3 on the same position.

    Me? My core PSLV remains non-traded. But my hedge will now be short-selling 50% $value in XAG every 4pm and closing with buy pre-NY market. That way, I won't be exposed/trapped by off-market shenanigans overnights/weekends.

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  83. Trying to get flat silver and gold for the weekend to sleep on things. Kinda reassuring that the only thing I own significantly red today is the zsl call 18 I used as a hedge against a portion of my physical. That lone short option position should get stopped out at about $36.50 POS, so maybe I won't have to look at any red for the weekend. Darn, SSL is red, might save some powder to buy more of that if Monday is an equities crash day.

    Sorry for the jabbering - just trying to collect thoughts after the last few days.

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  84. It has been noted here many times folks, the volatile swing in the silver market going forward are going to make you nauseous. Keep it tight and keep buying physical, which helps keep the miners functioning and digging for more material.

    Bottom callers and Bubble speakers again your wrong as per usual.

    Also a good day to plan a small Hedge in ZSL as a side cushion going forward.

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  85. as I said yesterday silver is bouncing off her 100 day MA. I am selling when she reaches her 50 day MA. good luck to all. and per Jim Sinclair stay away from margins if you want to play and enjoy playing this game.

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  86. @scisco

    Since the advent of oil and gas powered engines and use of coal and petroleum supplied power at mines and refineries, the gold silver ratio has almost always been greater than 30, with the exception of the speculative boom in the roarin' 20s and the Hunt Brothers attempts to corner the market. If GSR ever gets below 20, I'd be suspicious of bubble teritory even worse than the "correction" (read: margin induced panic selling) we have had this past week.

    see this article for a graph, I didn't bother reading the article so don't flame me if it sucks...
    http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/precious-metals-and-gems/other/gold-silver-and-the-financial-crisis-10921

    Luckily, my ASEs were bought at $23. Although I probably would have a bigger smile on my face if I had bought my silver long calls at 23 and my physical at 47 instead of the way that it really happened.

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  87. @pailin

    i understand ur rationale, but by doing this aren't u essentially shorting the asian market and going long the western markets?

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  88. I think Pailin is right on - people shedding some shorts for the weekend.

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  89. The momo crowd chased the price up to $49 only to get slaughtered over last weekend. Then they chased it down to $34. The will be real nervous about holding a position over this weekend after getting burned last weekend.

    I am calling an up day today on short covering with much of the up action around 3-4pm EST as the NYSE closes.

    Don't count on the BOS to bid up the COMEX. Everyone knows the vaults are empty and holding 10,000 contracts won't get them the physical they desire. They cleaned out the COMEX in March and are now on to other sources. The fact that the COMEX price has crashed just gives them a cheaper price to negotiate deals in other markets.

    My SLV puts hit their stops today in the black, which gives me a little cash to buy some popcorn, sit back over the weekend, and watch whatever madness ensue Sunday night. Maybe I will even buy up some more physical.

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  90. It's amazing how the markets can turn on a dime and go in a completely opposite direction.
    Good call by TF yesterday recognizing the bottom as it was developing.

    I can only watch as I recapture my losses.
    I'm a bit envious and very happy for those who timed this perfectly (or even close to it) and made a wad while it dropped and now on the turnaround.
    Lesson learned.
    Glad I'm patient and didn't even consider selling into fear and weakness.
    What I need to correct and pay attention to is NOT letting profits rise almost too much while hoping for more. And also just stop being overconfident and too emotionally invested in the bull aspect of this market and not recognizing the profit to be made from a temporary (and severe) bear reversal when things were frothy.
    It will happen again for sure, and I would have to seriously consider buying puts in SLV next time things are a bit too giddy. It's hard to be cautious when your happy and having fun.
    Caution is the exact opposite emotion of giddiness.

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  91. Turd

    You are the man!! I have never known anyone to call the metals mkt as you do. My hat is off to you. I am truly impressed!! Outstanding calls all the way through this mess.

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  93. @sp
    Sort of but not exactly. I'm long my IRA acct which has to be in US day markets by definition. Since I don't trade it, it's fully exposed during non-hours. While we metal-fiends (go Metallica!) have friends in Australia and Asia, we do not in London and the ever-present EE. So that's the hedge.

    I do other things to speculate and all that, but that's the hedge for my pain-in-the-ass account. If I ever see things even slightly headed towards SHTF, PSLV is swapped for firm-in-my-grasp physical asap and I won't be worried about the tax consequences :)

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  94. SSK

    Silverquest is SQI on the TSX. I'm in that one.

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  95. Both SLV-n and SIVR-n have shortsale restrictions on them now. That should tell you that the price chasers are shorting now. The set-up is being put into place for an astroblast higher.

    Attention gamblers: On the upside, always buy MORE time for call options than for put options. Markets fall faster than they rise, generally. Up moves can require bigger basing periods. Pay up for time. Pay nothing for bottom and turn calls. Use profits to buy time.

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  96. Turd, superlative job on dusting yourself off, finding your sabre, and calling the troops together.

    Blythe has fired every possible gun at us this week. This has truly been the week from hell. Let's give them a little taste of it now, what say you guys?

    Picked up July 38 SLV calls on the cheap this morning, just putting my money where my mouth is.
    GLTA.

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  97. Eric#1,

    I read the First Majestic annual report this weekend. New mine coming online, record production and profits. Everything coming up roses.
    Been in it since $3.80. Their rounds are real purdy too!

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  98. OK, maybe I'm just still stressed out by having to leave the house for 3 hours as my mother was "reviewed" for her claim on her long term care insurance. She's 89 with a now broken kneecap after many falls, since the first time she was REJECTED by the company, you know, the guys we are supposed to all be controlled by....

    ANYWAY....added my trading positions to GG and EGO yesterday...

    And....when Turd talks about the "fun in June"...could someone translate that for me? I mean, other than the "end" of QE, what is the expectation of what might transpire?

    I've been so busy with my mother and that darned "review" that I've gotten off track...

    THANKS!

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  99. So, what makes me get a real "Jones" for a miner? Mostly it's production growth that's already a lock. I don't put a lot of stock into the lottery ticket, moose pasture, blue sky type plays. Most of these names have already found the gold or silver, are already producing, and it's just a matter of ramping up the growth . I like it when permits, infrastructure, and capital raising don't look like too much of a problem. Plus, these are the kind of companies that are far more likely to pull out a really fantastic drill hole. Witness Kirkland Lake just a few days ago.

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  100. Hey all-

    Just checkin' in, still alive, slowly sheding the stress hormones from the last 4 days, happy that my account balance is no longer bleeding from every orifice.

    Regarding miners, I think I've given up on them for a while, until I see solid green for a week or two, they've been nothing but an aggravation and annoying distraction since the beginning of the year.

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  101. No one is more happy than I that we seemed to have reached a bottom. But before we get ahead of ourselves, let's proceed with some caution....

    Other than that, great job keeping things together Turd.

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  102. SILVER IS PISSED NOW AND SHE'S COMING BACK STRONG!

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  103. Look like there might have been a little mud in Turd's Bottom, but I'm happy. If we just pass yesterday for a little bit I'll dance a jig.

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  104. @pailin

    i got u

    something tells me though that what will slowly happen, now that people are scared to hold overnight and through the weekends, is that the gains will be made then and shaken out during the day. i'm following turd's advice....

    but every time i've traded a ticker for a while it always seems to go the same way....ie moves exactly opposite of what everyone is thinking.

    ok that said, by 4pm today u better bet i'll be flat in spec trades except for core going into weekend. at the end of the day i don't really want to push my luck so i'm basically with u on this one

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  105. I am tearing up... this is my first day to have a green P/L in my options account.

    Sure I am still down $5500, but up $485 makes one have hope again.

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  106. Atlee; From an old pro like yourself, that is a tremendous compliment.
    Thank you.

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  107. @kuminari

    couldn't agree with u more

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  108. That green line is really afraid to cross that red line. You can do it greeny!

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  109. To the guys wanting to dive back in... I am spreading the risk profile across paper and physical.

    I'm thinking that if the paper barons are stupid enough to let it ride back to $42 on silver, I can lock in the paper price now.

    I'm guessing that Asia will not buy in size on Sunday night. Why should they. They're going to be hoping for another down day in the USA on Monday (their Tuesday) and then buy in on their Wednesday.

    I'm thinking that the econ calendar and the US-Yen trade will be the story for next week.

    This week appeared to be Euro-USD and the EU situation driving Euro down and USD up.

    In Asia, the Yuan and Yen aren't really basing decisions on USD. They're basing it on how much silver and gold can they ship and how fast can they lock in the USD price per ounce.

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  110. I am amazed that the EE was even capable of doing this, although the algos, once the ball got rolling, probably did much of the work for them. There is good news.

    1. They can't kill Osama again. (9 lives is the maximum last time I checked.)

    2. I was dreaming for silver to fall through $40 to begin buying again. I was afraid I missed the boat, because even a bull like me might get antsy towards $50-$60. This means the EE needed a disaster like this to try to scare the hell out of strong longs like me. Blythe is putting our will to the ultimate test.

    3. We will pass this test. This plummet is simply more proof that we are right. The metals are manipulated downward. The EE is desperate and pulling out all the stops. They can't afford to care about revealing that they have been controlling the market all these years.

    4. But Blythe cannot make physical less scarce than it is. The EE has power over life and death, power over laws and nations, but it can't change the composition of the earth's crust.

    5. The strong longs know this, and they're not going anywhere. They bought at $5, at $10, at $15, at $20. They dare Blythe to try to push it back there without drying up the comex in days.

    In other words, this week is ultimately

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  111. Well I put in an Internet order for 100 oz at $35.09 so let's hope I don't get washed out of $500 if we drop back down to $30.... here's hoping... I could have put the order in at $33.50 and saved 150 bucks but what are you gonna do. But I definitely needed to get the order in under $4k because they take personal checks (no wire fees yay!) but their free shipping only works up to $3999 :)

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  112. Strongsidejedi,

    Abbott's coin in Brimingham MI has a $4.25 premium over spot (for OTC purchases) and seems to always have plaenty of ASEs in hand, if you are anywhere near Detroit they are just north.

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  113. Turd, many thanks for all your work on this blog, it's helped me a lot.

    And also thanks for that Avery Goodman article link, it helped me understand much better what's going on in silver.

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