Thursday, May 12, 2011

Our Criminal Opposition

For once, I don't mean this as it relates to the precious metals. We'll get to that later.

If you haven't yet watched this, I BEG AND PLEAD WITH YOU TO TAKE 15 MINUTES TO DO SO. When finished, please forward the link to anyone who you sense does not quite understand the predicament we are in.

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7361572n

Now, ask yourself, how is it that this criminal corruption is not being prosecuted? The fact that there are merely "investigations" while the foreclosures continue gives you an idea of just how powerful and dominating the Fed/TBTF/Govt complex is. (Also, I guess we know why Sheila Bair is resigning.) How is it that no one has called for a halt on all foreclosure proceedings until and unless proper documentation can be found? I'll tell you why: Because the criminal element controls the system. Here, in the supposed "land of the free and home of the brave", we live in extremely dangerous times. The one thing that has always distinguished the U.S.A. from most every other nation on earth, the one thing that has caused the U.S.A. to be the ultimate safe haven in the free flow of global capital, is at least some measure of respect for the Rule of Law. Well, throw that out the window and kiss it goodbye, my friends. Maybe not today or tomorrow but certainly in the weeks and months to come. There will be no rescue. There is no centrally-planned, keynesian salvation coming. All you can do is protect yourself and warn as many others as possible to do the same.

To that end, I read several comments overnight from people who are selling their silver and gold to lock in some fiat-conversion profits. If you are one of them or if you are considering the same, let me state this as clearly as possible: YOU ARE ONE OF THE DUMBEST PEOPLE ON THE FACE OF THE PLANET. You knew what was coming so you prepared. You bought PMs some time ago as protection and insurance. Now, because of a manufactured correction in fiat price, you sell? Again, if you are now converting your metal back into fiat YOU ARE ONE OF THE DUMBEST PEOPLE ON THE FACE OF THE PLANET. If you are truly concerned about your fiat-conversion, call Lind-Waldock for pete's sake and buy some puts but DONT, FOR ANY REASON, SELL YOUR METAL. One "put" option hedges 5000 ounces so its not hard to do. I've even give you this link to use:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/opening-options-account.html
If you feel the need to hedge but you're too lazy to do it the right way, maybe you need to find another blog to read. This one is about "preparing for the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment". Precious metals are your financial insurance against that series of events. As a physical metal owner/buyer, you were smart enough, at one time, to separate yourself from the sheep. Do not let the Fed/TBTF/Govt complex manipulate you back into the herd.

Here are your charts for today. First, here's Porky The Pig:

Next, here's gold which, for all the bluster, huffing and puffing, still maintains it's position above the trendline from Turd's Bottom in January. After dipping below 1495 overnight, I'm looking for the next dip toward 1480 to begin buying some calls.
And I'm starting to get a very good feel for how silver will finally bottom, once and for all. Recall last night's post about how yesterday looked like last Thursday, all the way into the overnight lows last night. Since we made new lows down near 32, there is a very high likelihood now that, after a brief bounce (which we are already seeing develop), silver will drop one more time into the 32-33 area. Probably tomorrow or early next week. At that point, we will have an opportunity to buy. I'll keep you posted.

Thank you for reading my rant. Please hang in there and don't be discouraged. The TRUTH is on our side and TRUTH will always win. TF

ps I forgot to include this link. Solid, brief article.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/history-repeats-itself-silver-futures-manipulation-2011-mimics-gold-futures-manipulation-20-0
And who gives a shit about "The Law", anyway. Apparently, if you don't like it, you just ignore it.
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201105111542dowjonesdjonline000477&title=treasury-auctions-to-take-us-over-debt-ceiling-on-monday

302 comments:

  1. Following up on Turd's point - if $48 was not enough fiat conversion to part you from your physical, why would $33 convince you?

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  2. I look at it this way, whoever sells metal, sells it to someone else, this give US, the ones who know the experiment is crumbling a nice price, so I say sell sell sell. Thanks Turd, good perspective, as usual.

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  3. @Turd
    Right on. You don't sell your physical for fiat. You hedge with paper, or you swap metal for metal (GSR/SGRif you must).

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  4. Mkt riggers in a real hurry for change. Hit the commods. Elevate the USDinker.
    All the paper changes but nothing in reality to back up any fundamentals. Raise the debt limit. QE the additional debt. Inflate the Dow to new highs. Watch the USDinker sink in buying power. Inflation rips the CON'dsumer a new one. Paper game pieces being brightly decorated in flashing lights on a board of econophile decaying fundamentals. Once the foundation falls the game pieces go with it. Hot money sloshing around like a drunken sailor. When the sailor runs out of money the spending stops. Not the gov goons. Reality to hit the AmeriCON'd bulls eye. OUCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  5. Ben Bernanke is speaking today, maybe it will be bullish for gold :P

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/watch-every-us-regulator-and-ben-bernanke-testify-do-nk-and-financial-instability

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  6. If XAG dips under 31 this morning on a deep stab, I'm in long, pyramiding up in $1 increments with a $1 trailing stop after 2nd buy. I'll take a small loss risk to play the volatility :)

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  7. There is no longer and rule of law in this country. I've been writing about it for years. Obama was bought and paid for by the banking elite. He in turn, gave them a get out of jail free card. Fuckers. All of them. http://thecivillibertarian.blogspot.com/2010/12/government-failure-guaranteed-role-of.html

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  8. Thanks Turd

    good post, keep up the good work.

    At times it is hard to get beaten up by the markets, and my family thinks I am nuts for holding PM's. Nice to get encouragement that we are all in this together. Read Ted Butlers commentary last night, very enlightening as well. It seems like nothing makes sense, you hear commentary about the USA being the responsible ones, vs the EU. just does not make sense.
    Back in 2000, got 100% out of 401K into cash, and again in 2008, BOTH times, gave in to "pressure" before I got back in, only to be proven correct, and get slaughtered. Not again,, things are just not logical now, and just do not see being on the wrong side of this. PM's will not backrupt, China demand going up for industrial. Seems to me, SMART buyers would be lining up to buy now while low, be very hard to convince me differently

    all the best Turd
    Greg

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  9. In the 32-33 range as I type... as I mentioned once before, I think the only issue I'd take with your predictions is that everything seems to happen about 2x as fast as it used to, and it's throwing everyones timing off....

    But on WHAT is going to happen, you are dead on.

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  10. I think the people who write sell sell sell the physical silver are disinformation agents

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  11. Turd - another great post. Keep ringing that bell there is a LOT of pressure from everything else we hear and feel to give in to the TPTB.

    FOAGQ - I'm in and will do short, small trades. Nothing large and plan to avoid the afternoon except to sell.

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  12. @ Mike

    Tinka coming back now, must have been a large lot sold.

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  13. Things are getting interesting :) Good luck everyone.

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  14. Since a house fell on bin laden the OZ head floats higher. Must worship the dead head!

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  15. Im sitting 100% cash at the moment waiting for that last dip to 32-33. Miners also getting close to the low in January. Lots of bargains coming soon to a broker near you :)
    Agree with TF, let this play out. These price swings are going so fast so unless you are a robot trader, most likely they will depart you of your money.
    Thanks for all the hard work TF. Looks like this is playing out exactly as you are predicting.

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  16. Thanks Turd for all you do.

    Do you think the following will limit the ability of the COMEX to manipulate price?

    Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange's 1 Kilo Gold Contract To End Comex Gold Futures Trading (And "Bang The Close") Monopoly

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hong-kong-mercantile-exchanges-1-kilo-gold-contract-end-comex-gold-futures-trading-and-bang-?page=2

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  17. Nice way to RALLY the troops Turd!!!

    Kick ass Brah!

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  18. After lengthy discussion on AGQ last night I initiated, I reassessed my base and felt urged to put my thought more in a more straightforward/harsh manner before it gets worse.

    Two of my most favorite PM blogs are Turd’ site and smartmoneytracer (aka smt). Smt is run by an experienced cyclist whom I have tons of respect for as well as Turd. (Thanks again Turd, you saved my butt yesterday:-) Smt never believed in conspiracy theory and purely technical oriented and used to recommend AGQ. Lots of members there blew up their fortune with AGQ last week. Smt had gut to admit his mistake and advise people to stay away from AGQ going forward. (He also said broken parabola never recovers. Which is right, his TA or fundamentals? I don’t know….) So anyone mentioning AGQ there is treated as a pure idiot now. On the other hand at Turd’s town here, sure nobody recommended anyone to invest in AGQ but it became so popular trade and the subject of discussions by some of well regarded regulars and could lead naïve investors to believe it is one of best tools to put retirement savings into, and no criticism was raised, which was what made me concerned really.

    Regardless of losses I always thought AGQ is worst of the breeds among manipulative tools created by EE. It is much worse than SLV as AGQ has absolutely no ties to physical and pure paper play. It is designed to created more volatility to silver market, leading to greed and panic, causing eventual shaking off of as many sound PM investors as possible. What can be more ideal for EE to manipulate the market than this?

    I know that many regular traders here will hate me to hear this, but that’s fine with me as I hope this blog stay as sound PM blog for average investors instead of being sabotaged by addicted traders (including me). So my opinion is that it’s your right to trade AGQ or whatever you want in this free market but don’t pretend you are one of the noble knights fighting again EE. The fact is that you are just an addicted dog who is willing to bite poisoned bone thrown by EE. (I admit I bite it quite a few times, shame on me.) And do average investors a favor by zipping your mouth off when you have desire to talk about it here.

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  19. Thanks for several posters' advice yesterday, on preparing the wickets for liquidating my Traditional IRA. I've set up the wire transfer accounts with USAA, it takes 2-3 days for them to verify and complete. It'll take about 3 days for the sell orders on my stocks and USAGX to close out. Then another day or two to complete the wire transfer. Then ready to buy physical. By the time I get the cash for the coin shop, I'm probably looking at Monday, 23 May to start nibbling at The Coin Village. Don't worry 'bout me, still have both my wife's Roth and my Roth IRA, still love USAGX and select miners but, feeling a fire sale is imminent on physical. I'm tired of playing Wall Streets game!

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  20. No offense Turd, but if you think the end is imminent, why are investing in and running yogurt stands? Do you think that is a good business to be in the days leading up to a hyperinflationary collapse? If I may be so bold, you're in this business because your family needs to produce an income and this is a business you know. So don't be so hard on the people here who are cashing out and leaving. They're the weak hands who don't understand PM's aren't some get rich scheme, but insurance against a fiat collapse and a store of wealth on the other side.

    While most here are clued in to what's coming, unless you want to hole up somewhere, you have to continue living in the Matrix until the collapse occurs and that includes playing the fiat game. Sure we can make preparations, but there's no guarantee they'll be of any benefit unless one has a crystal ball.

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  21. Looks to me like a fairly impressive bounce off $32.70.

    Perhaps this is confirmation of a "double bottom"??

    Perhaps not.

    We probably all realize now that TA just goes out the window in such a clearly manipulated market.

    But Tur'ds "pattern recognition" is the key. Seems to me we are seeing further evidence of the EE simply getting out of their short position in as profitable a manner as possible.

    A snippet from Ted Butler:

    It took me a short while to connect the dots, but once connected, no other explanation is more plausible for what just actually occurred in silver. And here’s the bottom line conclusion for silver investors – that this silver rig job took place for the purpose of taking silver from SLV investors should tell you how determined the manipulators must be to own silver. That should make you even more determined to own silver.

    >>>>

    Clearly the Cartel can make the charts look any way they want.

    But they can't create physical silver.

    I have had some success "hitting singles" on options with ZSL on the way down. I still have enough faith in Turd's overall "big picture" that I have a significant number of AGQ calls out into the future.

    In the end, that is just "vegas" money -- if it hits, more money for physical purchases.

    I think it is just a matter of time until a big pop.

    Probably sooner than we think.

    We shall see.

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  22. JUN 1500 calls, when we hit 1480 another time? For the brave no doubt, otherwise July 1510 calls..?

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  23. Starting to believe more and more that the coordinated beat-down and equities down-turn is setting the stage for the general acceptance of QE3. It may or may not be coming directly on the heels of QE2, but it's coming. 1600 SAT Ben will trumpet that the transitory inflation effects are under control and that the developing recovery is still not on it's own legs, so we need to administer more QE. The name will be something different, but the effect will be the same.

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  24. Darn, lost a post in the middle. I'm totally unhedged now, having ridden three sets of ZSL calls. Not that I have any confidence in a bottom, but rather because my basis on my mostly 5+ year old physical is around $9, and I can stomach all the way down to 18 if I have to without totally puking.

    FWIW, a year or two ago, I think, Zeal put out a good article on seasonality. It's probably easy to google, and might provide something of a cautionary note regarding trying to bottom call before we even get to summer.

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  25. @afrum, love your posts, keep me smiling!

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  26. Don't be too harsh on the sellers, Turd. Yes, it'll all collapse eventually, but meanwhile need clownbux to live our everyday lives and people are scared the Cartel will pummel silver back down to $10 an ounce. Yes, I know, everyone will be backing up the truck at $28... but if Blythe can drive the price down 35% every delivery period, why shouldn't she? If the price of default is a 25% premium, she's still ahead. And our nose-picking 'regulators' don't seem to give a damn, so they're not going to stop her.


    Or am I missing something?

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  27. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/senate-panel-approves-diamond-fed-nomination-2011-05-12?link=MW_story_latest_news

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Senate Banking Committee on Thursday voted to approve President Barack Obama's nomination of Nobel Prize-winning economist Peter Diamond to be a Federal Reserve governor. The full Senate needs to vote next on Diamond for him to be approved for the position. Sen. Richard Shelby, the Alabama Republican who is the ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, has blocked the nomination in the past and voted against Diamond

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  28. Yup! Lots'uv of us nuts following the law among the lawless. Preparing with common sense very uncommon as the insane grow insaner. Failing to worship the beast. Too bad I'm so sad! Soon it will be 100% possession is the law among the bankster fraudsters in bed with corrupt gov goons. All the insane laws stacked against the CON'dsumer and revolt happens. Soon the lawless making all the laws to steal, will necessarily take all by force.

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  29. Well said TF! Trade the paper, however they move it; buy and hold the physical.

    26-ish is the 200dma if memory serves. Could be our big put bettor was betting on a return to it, or was in the know.

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  30. Does anyone dare to buy put options on the PM's? As long as you can make money on it to buy physical:).

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  31. SLW's share price is now higher than SLV's share price....when was the last time that happened?

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  32. Not sure if the middle part of that post was pointing at me (among others) or not, but let me be very clear about what I think just in case it was.

    - Selling physical silver in the forties and re-buying in the twenties or low thirties is not dumb. It is entirely rational. Holding through a crash IS a dumb move, regardless of the commodity/stock/call/ETF/whatever.

    - There is NOT a retail shortage. Go on - take the 'Diplocat challenge'. Spend 10 mins on Google and see if you can find ten different (reputable) sources selling physical silver RIGHT NOW. I defy anyone to fail this challenge.

    - In any event, I swapped my physical silver for gold. Gold was not in a bubble, and its price is relatively stable. My wealth is still protected. I can sleep at night.

    - Everyone seems to be fond of the word 'sheeple' at the moment. Well, I'm glad I'm not one of the 'sheeple' that, spurred on by a mania in silver, bought at $48 or $49 (or, god help them, bought AGQ at those levels) and are now watching their lives being destroyed in front of their eyes.

    - This mania was, I might add, fuelled in no small part by silver tub-thumping group-think sites such as this. Remember all the 'trolls' that were flamed off the site for daring to say silver might go down in price? I bet there's a few people out there right now that wish they'd listened to them, and that contrary views had been more welcome here.


    If you want to protect your wealth - buy physical gold. It's what countries, bankers, and the wealthy do. If you want to speculate, buy silver. But be ready to sell it in a heartbeat if needed.

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  33. Almost as dumb as the guy in that embedded Viagra commercial pouring a $3 bottle of water into his radiator at a f*ckin gas station. I'm glad I watched that.

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  34. Good to silver holding the line on this much volume. Need more sideways trading.

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  35. I have been busy with friends and relatives latey so have not been able to keep up with the blog. I was surprised to read what Turd posted this morning about posters selling their silver down at these prices. I have been busy with buying $120,000 of physical silver for those same friends and relatives mentioned earlier. The different mindsets of people are eye opening.

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  36. It's definitely a little unsettling how the HUI and XAU are behaving. Let's hope it's capitulation and not portending a far deeper smash. Either way, I'll be holding on for the ride. Hell, weathered 2008 once, I guess I can do it again if need be. Time to read that Old Man Partridge quote one more time: "It's a bull market you know."

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  37. Here's some spiritual "mumbo jumbo" that might entertain you. My mother recently went for a tarot reading because she's worried about me, and this is exactly what she was told:

    "He's been bravely grasping at stinging nettles. There's a battleground going on in him over physical resources. He's not done yet. In 5 or 6 weeks time (this was May 3rd) he'll feel like he's done very, very well."

    Seeing as I'm following Turd's insights (alongside Stella Concepts & Endless Mountain) I thought I'd let you all know.

    Bring it. lol

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  38. Like Eric#1 stated, the issue here is people to go into full "Mad Max" mode as if it's going to happen tomorrow. Things are definitely going to get worse before they get better, but the range of "worse" and the timeline are big question marks. Also the way we get there and the resolution are too.

    There's a balance that must be maintained at all times..you've got to be "in" protection, but you've also got to be "in" fiat to pay your bills. VISA/MC/AMEX and your landlord don't care about Mad Max. They need fiat to pay their bills too. If you overdo the protection, then you've got fiat problems. If you overdo the fiat (or any paper, stocks, etc) then you've got protection problems.

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  39. I actually think the miners aren't down as much as I had expected before open this a.m. ....A sign of things to come in the metals pretty soon?..I hope. Don't know what I expected..maybe a semi-collapse. ....Seems as goes the shares so go the metals lately.

    TF,
    The most painful part of this drop for me is in NOT being able to buy much more of the metals and shares. ...Absolutely not parting with one single solitary ounce or share though. At least there's that and I am grateful for what I have. I feel for those that are selling though...especially if it is done out of necessity. Don't sell out of panic though!

    Stay strong, play safe, have faith, believe in what you know that you know and don't be shaken. ...And maybe pray for our nation and this world.

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  40. Watching the ups & downs of the daily charts will just drive some people crazy. Probably, many of the people who are new to PM’s and bought in last month, are now selling.

    Whatever happened to that steady concept of ‘dollar-cost averaging,’ in which one purchases (Physical, in this case) some amount every week, month, or whatever?

    Yesterday, I posted the age-old comment, “Don’t put all your eggs into one basket” in reply to a poster here who claimes to have 100% of his investments in Silver.

    Today, let me pass on this golden (silver) nugget of wisdom:
    “Slow and steady wins the race” (with respect to continually accumulating PM’s).

    See – everything that you really need to know in life – you were taught when you were 5 years old. Try picking up and reading Aesop’s Fables or some other childhood storybook like the Turtle and the Hare. And then there is “Billy Goat Gruff” – can you guess who the ugly troll is?

    It really is just that simple!

    (Figured I would take the time to write this, rather than just suck up to Turd and say, “Gee, Turd, you are right!”)

    -Mammoth

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  41. Don't get too anxious to jump back in. We all know this ends in dollar confetti, but there's a good chance we have one more crunch. I'm guessing a 30% haircut across the board in S&P, silver and gold.

    Would like to buy some ES puts if we can get another bounce.

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  42. You da bomb Turd Estevez! :)

    And who the heck wants to sell their physical metals?
    Need to have their heads checked.
    Oh, just go direct to the straight-jacket.

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  43. Diplocat mania in silver? like housing right? everyone had to own one and everyone did own one.

    Funny other than myself and a BIL I know of not one person who possessed or bought silver.

    A little irrational in your call there.

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  44. FreeBoundry-

    I'll grant you that AGQ can be used for manipulation by the EE... but so can margin hikes, hedging by the miners, jawboning by the Fed, etc, etc, etc. You are using the arguement of the purist, where to be totally free of taint you'd have to dig it out of the ground and smelt it yourself.

    I don't consider myself a "noble knight", I'm just a guy who's trying to rapidly build up a retirement fund in the face of massive real inflation and no safe vehicles for investment. And once I've made the money, I'll move it into safer places to hold it (physical/land/etc.).

    Did I lose money last week? On paper, yes... but I got out before it cut into my principal. Will I be smarter next time? Totally... the best educations are often the most expensive. I'm started as a naive investor, but I'm rapidly shaping up, that's how it works. To keep people from learning expensive lessons is simply to keep them ignorant.

    AGQ is a tool, like any other... it's a little sharper than some, so it's easier to be cut by it. Like any tool, I assume I'm going to suffer a few cuts and bruises along the way til I learn how to use it. To condemn the tool because of it's sharpness is simply not appropriate.

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  45. Just wow. This is a day for traders. I've taken positions again in NGD, EXK, and am waiting for TRE to meed my bid. So far, it's looking very profitable. I will not own these long. First sign of trouble, I am booking gains. But I went big and am feeling a great sense of relief for the first time in a couple days. Now let's make some fucking money.

    SSK

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  46. FreeBoundary...

    I completely agree with you regarding AGQ.

    That said:
    1) It is completely a seperate issue for me from my PHYSICAL holding.
    2) I've used the profits from my AGQ trading to buy land and stuff. Others say they are using the profits to buy physical. I'm sure some are just trading it for the sake of more fiat.

    I know exactly why I was using AGQ and it got me exactly what I wanteed.

    That said, I'm obviously out of AGQ right now and am actively looking for the next "AGQlike" opportunity maybe with equities or bonds on the short side... more like "ZSLlike."

    Finally, I don't think any of us that were/are trading AGQ claimed to be any kind of "White Knight fighting the powers that be." Where you got that I do not know.

    Who has your checing account (current account if you're not from the US)? Your mortgage note? Your car loan? Credit cards? If you are not doing those things with a Credit Union or VERY small, truly local bank with no ties to a regional or bigger, then you are no different than what you are accusing AGQ "White Knight" traders of being? Careful with the stones in glass houses, know what I mean? I'm pretty sure that 98% of us on this blog are all fighting the same fight for the right reasons... otherwise we wouldn't be here. ;)

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  47. SLW also just touched the 200 MDA.

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  48. I can't help but read and agree with Jim Rogers these days.

    "So when you say everybody’s bullish, who are these people? Where are they? Maybe they’re bullish, but there are very, very, very few people who have invested in a manner that reflects their bullishness. The last time I was in the United States, I saw shops everywhere saying, “We Buy Gold.” The public’s dumping their gold into these shops. Eventually, those shops are going to have signs outside saying, “We Sell Gold,” and people will be lined up to buy gold. But those days are far from here yet.

    So where are these bullish people? If they’re bullish they’re sure not putting their money to work.

    Not yet anyway."

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  49. ZSL puts?

    What do you guys think about ZSL puts to play the next upswing?

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  50. Very depressing video from 60 Minutes.

    This country has rotted from within.

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  51. @freeboundary

    the people who should not be in agq are the ones who don't know how to trade or how to properly allocate their assets.

    @jon

    i think he is trying to provide support to the weak hands. in fairness to those with PM, if u have taken 90% of ur net worth into PM, then it is no surprise that u r shaken out!

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  52. Shill,

    Therein lies the problem. The assumption that there was no mania just because my neighbour or brother or colleague knows nothing about silver. But it's not comparable to the (enormous) housing market. Housing mania need tens of millions of participants. A silver mania only needs a few more players. That's why it is, and always has been, the devil's metal.

    But go on then. If not a mania, how else would you describe a 500% increase since December 2008? That's one seriously heavy bag of fundamentals you must have there...

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  53. Went to Google for the article agauinvest mentioned, it's right here:

    http://news.silverseek.com/Zealllc/1264198102.php

    Interesting read, although we should take into consideration times are different :P.

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  54. Sweet! Turd's the word.

    I've been targeting $32 for a while now. Just sold half of my silver puts since we're close enough to that target, and hedged the other half against a reversal to lock in at least $40K more in profit between now and options expiration. Overall, I should be able to realize a six figure gain on my put position by this time next week. Don't listen to Yukon's drivel about paper trading being a mistake.

    The main reason I decided to keep half of my put position is that there's a reasonable chance this correction has further to go, for three reasons:

    1. The pennant bear flag that someone pointed out yesterday (which, as crazy as it seems, targets $28 to $30).

    2. A more general equity market correction unfolding (which we might actually be in the midst of as we speak). Silver won't be spared from further losses if the overall market corrects 10% to 15%. This is something else I've been saying for a while.

    3. A continued EE smackdown of the commodities complex to provide cover for QE3 (i.e., hitting commodities when they're down, because they're sadists).

    Having said all that, I feel we're now back at a point where silver offers good value again. I'm back in the physical market, and will be buying another 250 oz later today - my last physical silver purchase occurred more than a month ago when Ag crossed $34 on the way to $49. I switched my buying at that point to physical gold, which was lagging. Now I'm switching back to buying physical silver, and will keep buying more physical silver regularly until this correction is over and we cross back over $36 or so.

    Good luck to everyone! Keep the faith. Silver's on sale temporarily - nothing more.

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  55. 70/30,70/30,70/30,70/30,70/30
    My nephew who is teaching ME about options just made 3k on slv jul $28 puts overnight!

    There is no rule of law, and hasn't been for a long time, most of us people of color have known this ALL our lives.I have always told my friends if you allow them to treat anyone unfairly you will eventually be treated unfairly.They are going to get WAY more outrageous than you can imagine. Prepare accordingly. The gubment is dying and will do anything to survive! Be very careful.Get your war face on.

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  56. Love your passion about the lack of RULE OF LAW.

    For a few years (more than that, actually) these folks have been walking the walk and telling the man to follow the Rule Of Law. They stream radio shows and have archives on the website. Some of their shows have been transcribed in their archives.

    http://ruleoflawradio.com

    Check it out, and spread the word about
    Rule Of Law Radio

    ReplyDelete
  57. Kiwi,

    Thanks for replying to my posting. I know it was harsh, and many will continue trading AGQ. I put my opinion to give warnings to average investors instead of triggering disputing with active traders. I also want to put different opinion/color in this board as I felt it's been more and more driven by make-a-quick-money scheme(with an excuse of buying physical with that quick money)

    ReplyDelete
  58. @shill I gave a friend a Phili 1 oz coin for his birthday really to just start a conversation and get his reaction. honestly his reaction was like "WTF do I do with this thing" I took that to indicate that most people have no clue about PMs

    ReplyDelete
  59. Soccer Dad

    Paul is not selling any of his silver stock at this price. Only physical he will part with are a couple of very odd 10oz bars and some 90%. Was just there yesterday. His new orders are taking weeks now and some won't even quote delivery to him.

    ReplyDelete
  60. $2 T QE3. Wow, why do I believe and read all this shit. Isn't it easier to be stupid and living in bliss while the ship sinks. No, it's better to be prepared and handle your tension to your advantage. That's why we were given adrenalin.


    http://theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly/The_Financial_Powers_That_Be_Are_In_A_Trap_of_Their_Own_Making

    ReplyDelete
  61. Jon: I don't think you understand what I mean by The End.
    I'm not talking "Mad Max" kind of stuff. The US dollar will be replaced as a reserve currency and safe haven. Our economy won't collapse but it will certainly be MUCH different from what you've grown accustomed to. You must prepare for this.
    The yogurt business should be fine as any debt we've incurred in opening the stores will be repaid with dramatically less valuable, future fiat.
    Additionally, and this very important, I could just be wrong.
    Maybe all will be well and I'll become the Yogurt King of the U.S.
    Either way, its seems to make fine business sense to me so I've encouraged Mrs F to continue down this path.

    ReplyDelete
  62. But go on then. If not a mania, how else would you describe a 500% increase since December 2008? That's one seriously heavy bag of fundamentals you must have there...

    -------------------

    Tulip buying was a mania, a 500% increase in 3 years is nothing I would consider a mania. But I do agree on your Gold call, and I will be buying more if and when it drops back. But I have a soft heart for the Grey Mare non the less.

    ReplyDelete
  63. I find it interesting that the entire commodity complex got bombed yesterday while one of the biggest mining companies, Yamana, raised its dividend 50% to $0.045/QTR. Dividend rates would not be rising in the sector if the long-term outlook was negative.

    I have to agree Turd, by puts to hedge risk in this market, that includes your favorite mining issues. Given Armstrong's comments about 6/13-14 I would buy a little time and turn off the ticker for a little while. Times like this will wear you out and this is a good opportunity to recharge yourself by walking away.

    Ta,

    ReplyDelete
  64. ****KGB Interview.****

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeMZGGQ0ERk&feature=related

    This is former KGB interview back in 1985. It's about mind control. It is playing out in the steps he talks about. The masses won't know what hit them until the boot is in their asses.

    Please watch this. Like I said before about the WWF(wrestling). People are so easily lead which way TPTB want.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Makes me sick to my stomach since I'm a mortgage loan officer. They are pissing so many honest, hardworking people off...it's bound to get to a critical mass at some point.

    ReplyDelete
  66. Freemoney,

    How long have you been following SMT ? Has he been accurate in his calls? Going back and reading his last posts for a few months...it seems he changes his price targets...perhaps he's adapting to changing conditions.

    I couldn't see his long term call on silver...you said he mentioned a broken paraboloa never recovers...does this mean SMT doesn't think the long term price of silver is higher....or what's his outlook for silver?

    Tks - Rob

    ReplyDelete
  67. @diplocat,

    Here is the best SHORT explanation I have found for the belief system nay here hold re: silver --

    http://paperempire.net/2011/04/22/silver-is-a-bubble-but-its-not-what-you-think/

    I think everyone understands your beleif system in FUNDAMENTALLY different.

    I for one DO welcome different points of view. BUt one thing that I have noticed amongst those offering "differnet points of view" is that they can sometimes be a little shrill, and a bit patronizing.

    I would be very interested in your take on the article linked above.

    ReplyDelete
  68. I bought back in a little bit.

    I'm willing to gamble a little when even tough mothers like the posters around here are getting scared.

    ReplyDelete
  69. @Bull - I love the idea of ZSL puts for the upswings. I personally will wait for a more intermediate trend on my side to do it (helps bail me out of short term mistakes), but it's a great vehicle even for the long ag, short side.

    ReplyDelete
  70. iirc turd mentioned buying back in around Thursday/Friday after we overshot the previous lows.

    Well... we found a weird way to get there but so be it.

    Keep your heads up people and whatever you do, please don't sell your physical (unless it's to me ;))

    ReplyDelete
  71. Looking at the current action, I would say its a double dip Prozac type day for sure.

    Yes waitress 2 Prozacs and a shot of whiskey...and make the whiskey a double. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  72. Turd,

    I wrote a long post which I felt concerned important issues and it wouldn't post. I had two links in it. Is that the problem?

    I believe there is a link between JPM being authorized as a COMEX vault and this selloff.

    Maybe I could email my comments and you decide what to do with it. I don't remember your email, but you can contact me at monitor.rat@gmail.com. I need to leave for work now so I can't respond until much later.

    ReplyDelete
  73. Excellent advice Turd. I started playing options on your bottom. I have made excellent money. I HAVE NOT AND WILL NOT SELL 1 PHYSICAL OUNCE OF GOLD OR SILVER. SOON I WILL BE BUYING MORE PHYSICAL WITH THE FIAT MONEY MADE FROM OPTIONS. If any of you sell you physical you are as dumb as a post. This is exactly what JPM WANTS.

    ReplyDelete
  74. oh yeah... everything must be fine since we have "forgotten" about it.....
    from YAHOO NEWS today

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110512/wl_nm/us_japan_nuclear_reactor

    SWEET....

    ReplyDelete
  75. The economy is a big part of National Security. So anything done is for the greater good. Geez people are we becoming terrorists?

    I don't trust the government. Is this what they want? How they blatantly lie anymore. They don't even try to hide it really anymore. It's like so what, what are you one of those conspiracy freaks!

    Something has to be done soon. Or will we wait till the boots are at the door taking everything from us for the good of the country. We are being robbed and the sheeple don't care.

    Sorry rant out
    Frustrating to be mocked and lectured about my thoughts. Im right and no one around me sees it!

    ReplyDelete
  76. Big Oil execs hit back on tax


    proposalhttp://money.cnn.com/2011/05/11/news/economy/oil_tax_hearing/index.htm

    ReplyDelete
  77. FreeBoundary. It's good to share personal insight.

    Here's my take. AGQ is strictly a means to make or lose money fairly quickly. The underlying derivatives and counter-party risk make it one of the least trustworthy investments available. Never recommend this product.

    I don't see it as any special tool of the EE or TPTB. They have so many means at their disposal.

    disclosure: I have and will continue to take and leave positions in AGQlike investments

    ReplyDelete
  78. The puppet masters, the Fed and the banksters never loose because they pull the strings on the congress and the president. Just watch how the congress will pass a law or the president sign an executive order to give the banksters more money.

    Just look at this:

    http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/05/09/pyramid-of-capital-system-how-true-this-is-3/

    ReplyDelete
  79. @kumanari

    imo, there has never been a rule of law in this country. if there were we would not have our troops in every continent on the planet. the difference now than before is that we have an internet and so are actually all slowly coming out of the matrix due to flow of information. otherwise, the rulers have always been just that

    ReplyDelete
  80. Okay, on a positive side, here is my views on how to survive in this PM market/environment.

    After recent turmoil, I reached the conclusion that there is absolutely only one way to survive in this game. Be patience and wait for rock bottom like end of 2008/ summer of 2010/end of Jan 2011. Then jump in buy all you can. Then NEVER ever buy again impulsively while the bull runs. In other words, do your trade at most once every six months. Like Russell said, he has never seen anyone survived in this market buy jumping in/out often.
    In other words, to survive in this game you need the patience like a rock to wait for the best opportunity at most once or twice a year. Just my two cents.

    ReplyDelete
  81. A few weak sheep must be sacrificed so the herd can get away, or as we say in the islands; you don't have to be faster than the shark,just faster than the slowest swimmer.

    ReplyDelete
  82. AAHHHH TURD... the title of yogurt KING is to be MINE.. We have our meeting with yogurt land coming up. Ahh maybe in the future we may have a merger?

    ReplyDelete
  83. gold/dow mean for the last 100 years is 4:1

    Gold WILL at least double.

    Silver/dow 100 year mean is even more out of sync

    When silver is up to the $140s where it belongs, trolls, who have no sense of the real value of PMS, will find more useful hobbies than littering good blogs with their one-line a$$holery.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Edward
    You are trying to do hyperlinks? Yes, i think many others have had problems trying to do more than one in any single post.

    ReplyDelete
  85. @FreeBoundary

    From my perspective, you just nailed it (10:41). That's what frightens me with those not in this market for more than a couple years trying to call what are really weekly or monthly tops and bottoms. IF we get real rumblings and closeness to ending QE (albeit temporarily), we will have another great 2008 type buying opportunity, and it won't be in the 30s. I wouldn't want to spend out my dry powder here, and miss an opportunity like that.

    If that doesn't happen, I've still got enough physical on hand to be happy about an upward move.

    ReplyDelete
  86. @sp, @Fortinbras, your points taken gratefully and please don’t feel insulted. I felt that there is no clear way to give warnings to average investors here.

    @Rob, I’ve been following SMT since late last year. He’s been right and wrong but I like his approach of being disciplined and effort to survive for long haul instead of making quick money.

    His call is from paid subscription. It is purely chart based. So 50/50 chance that he can be right or wrong. Fundamentalist view might be right instead. But we are talking about short term horizon like next six months. For that, who knows in this rigged market?

    On my side, I think PM investors will eventually win, but it may take longer than anyone imagine. So I suggested to invest by looking at 5-10 year horizon. I bought some physical early this year and have zero worries and will never sell mine for next 30 years.

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  87. I'm waiting for 8 hours SS to turn up. Still long way to go till bottom.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Does anyone have a theory about why ZSL is only reflecting about -90% of SLV's performance? It should be -200%. Maybe it will normalize later today??

    ReplyDelete
  89. China Inflation Spreading Beyond Food Shows Wen to Persist With Tightening

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-11/china-inflation-spreading-beyond-food-shows-wen-to-persist-with-tightening.html

    ReplyDelete
  90. Attacking for the London Fix....

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  91. @agauinvest, we have identical thought :)

    ReplyDelete
  92. R man J - it could, or the Dow could get cut in half just as easily (see 2008) and not recover as far or fast as gold. Of course, if the Dow drops that far, the PM shares will get hit VERY hard, and I get to back up the truck on SSL and others. I would kill to get more SSL under .75.

    ReplyDelete
  93. J.P. Morgan's hunt for Afghan gold

    http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2011/05/11/jp-morgan-hunt-afghan-gold/?section=magazines_fortune

    "And so yes, like Genghis Khan, the United States military attempts to spread the Empire and exploit the land."

    ReplyDelete
  94. FreeBoundary.....SMT...

    had the same question about his "broken parabola" never being fixed.

    Also, he sees a big dollar rally coming and gold down into the 1300's....June/July. Heard numbers into the high 1300's before.

    Gosh, this is making me a nervous wreck.....he doesn't sound like Jim Sinclair...says 1700 + is calling, but where is 1600...he was calling that for June.

    All I want is to make a last buy into gold...this is getting sticky!
    I sort of wish I had more gold than silver...but not really sure how to do swaps and "like" swaps, etc. I can't keep up with all this stuff.
    My last silver buys were in the 42.30 + 45 range, stupidly....luckily, I average out to about 30. But, I still am wishing I had more gold than silver!

    ReplyDelete
  95. I think this Dodd-Frank business today has commodities frozen, both buyers and sellers not sure how today will shake out. I'm not seeing good buying or selling in 33s...range too tight. I'll buy volume break to 31 and sell volume break to 35.

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  96. Watched that 60 minutes piece last night. I'm not an American and Canada didn't do the great mortgage leverage/bundle etc.

    Absolutely stunning that there are folks willing to go on camera and straight up admit to forging 1000's of documents, and with full knowledge of the forgery, notarizing the forged documents. Further stunning that with these public admissions there isn't a large-scale prosecution going on. What is fraud if this isn't?

    Word Ver: fecia
    uh huh

    ReplyDelete
  97. @FreeBoundary...

    great advice. i was fortunate to do that in 2008 however one never knows where the bottom is. is it just in front of us? way in front of us? did it just pass us? (33.28)

    ohhh, if we could only know!

    ReplyDelete
  98. I am on hyper trade today. Buying and flipping. Buying and fliping. AG has proven particularly lucrative. It's a dangerous game, to be sure, but with tight tight stops it's working so far.

    ReplyDelete
  99. May 12, 2011, 10:49 a.m. EDT

    Bernanke: System unstable if debt limit not lifted

    (MarketWatch) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday that if Congress doesn't agree to increase a fast approaching $14.3 trillion borrowing limit it would result in an increase in interest rates, a worsening deficit and a destabilized financial system. "The costs would be an increase in interest rates which would worsen our deficit and hurt all borrowers in the economy," Bernanke said at a Senate Banking Committee hearing on the financial system. "The worst outcome would be that the financial system would again destabilize, which would have extremely dire consequences for the economy."

    ReplyDelete
  100. I see bubble talk, again. People need to read up on their bubbles. What's currently happening you might call a violent upswing followed by a healthy correction, but a bubble?

    Poseidon bubble: shares went up from $0.80 to $280, thats 35000% in little more than a year.

    e.Digital, one of the more well-known bubbles from the dot-com bubble, went from $0.06 to $24.50 in a year. That's an increase of 40830%.

    Many other dot-com companies achieved similar outrageous numbers. For example, theglobe.com achieved an increase of 606% alone on the day of its IPO, with shares opening at $87 instead of the planned $9.

    Want to know what the numbers are when an actual bubble bursts? Infospace went down from $1305 in March 2000, to $2.67 in June 2002. Yes, that's a decrease of 99.8% in roughly 4 months. Imagine having been on the short side of that one.

    Sure, bubbles can be bigger, and bubbles can be smaller. But in the end stages you can't have a slowly inflating bubble, or a slowly deflating bubble. A bubble doesn't pop and then re-inflate itself or trade sideways or go up. It POPS, after which it leaves nothing but a faint image on your retina. If this is a bubble, it very resilient.

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  101. Insight

    Swapping is really pretty simple. You walk into the coin shop with some silver and you walk out with some gold.

    HOWEVER, with the gold-silver ratio back to almost 45, I don't think anyone should be swapping silver for gold anymore. Not visa versa either. The GSR feels like it's in no mans land right now. Not high, not low. Just sit tight.

    If you want more gold, just purchase it steadily as personal cash flow allows. It's a long term thing. Just keep on keepin' on.


    Word Ver: vatraxia
    Sounds like the next new wonder drug. Expect commercials soon to convince us that we can't live without it. We have a "condition" that we never knew existed. That's a whole other group of bastards, though OT on this blog.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Bugger, I messed up on the Infospace data. That's roughly 2 years and 4 months, not just four months. Still, one hell of a ride downwards.

    ReplyDelete
  103. @Diplocat

    I agree 100%.
    TF, I think you may be off target on this one.
    I sold some PHYSICAL last week and only *slightly* regret it. But since I've been buying since '08, I basically threw some meat back to the sharks and now I have:

    My original CASH investment
    Nearly 1000 oz of Silver.
    15 ounces of gold.

    So, yes, selling allows me to fight another day. If they are dropping silver to ~20$, why not sell high and buy back in low?

    It is a shame the market is manipulated as it is, but we will be victorious in the end.

    FIAT < SILVER < GOLD

    Silver will ALWAYS be valuable. Gold will be more valuable. It takes the pennies to make the pound.

    KEEP ON STACKIN', FOLKS...
    BUT PLAY SMART & BE SAFE!!!
    THIS IS DANGEROUS TERRITORY.

    ~~~"The Jeepster"

    ReplyDelete
  104. "extremely dire consequences" is very strong language for a fed chairman.

    ReplyDelete
  105. Trader Dan's new post on the rotation out of commodities courtesy Bernanke....
    Gosh, I'm totally confused now (and said so in a comment).

    http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/05/continuous-commodity-index-drops-below.html

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  106. @Fleve - how do I (think I) know this isn't a bubble? There weren't so many people talking about and calling the real bubbles.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Trading on certain miners is crazy volatile. AG just keeps pinging from 18.18 to 17.99 over and over again. I have now flipped it four times for a couple hundred bucks each time. Just crazy action. You blink, up or down 15 cents.

    ReplyDelete
  108. The big oil companies make approx. $.08 on every gallon of gas and the U.S. Gov't (fed,state,local etc.) makes approx. $.88 a gallon in taxes.
    How hypocritical of Congress when you see the numbers. These hearings that are happening and the whole "blame the speculator" that the Prez. and A.G. have been spouting are just M.O.P.E. for public consumption and the MSM cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  109. Eric#1

    A little while ago, silver/gold ratio was 30 to one, you swapped into a few ounces of gold. I thought you should have waited for a more favorable time. Damn! How I wish I grabbed a few ounces at that time now. Oh well, another time will come.

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  110. Eric#1...thanks for your help. My problem is there is NO COIN shop in my town....unless I drive 50 miles to El Paso.
    I'm so used to dealing with CMI with much lower premiums than the coin shop!
    I think there are "like" rules or something to minimize tax problems. need to research..more!
    Ultimately, if I get my last gold buy in, a really small amount, I will be about 35% gold to 65% silver (based on my fiat buy $ totals) for a total hedge of about 20% on our money.

    I long for the old days where those little bonds were nice and safe....At 60, this is really hard to get used to!!

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  111. re: Bernanke debt ceiling comment

    The stars are aligning..these guys (Obama, Geithner, Bernanke) are all pre-selling the deflation story. Read between the lines, all meant to induce fear in those that have or will soon have floating rate debt. The biggest being our own gov't (and thus all of us via taxation). Guess who else is scared? All those ARM debtors (and creditors) that have resets coming up later this year and 2012. This commodity crap and rush to dollar isn't going away until they clear the debt ceiling issue and Fed has green light on QE3 (or whatever they'll call it). It's truly like the Wall St bailout or crash threat from Sept 2008 all over again.

    ReplyDelete
  112. AG is breaking out. Yesssss.

    ReplyDelete
  113. is raising the debt ceiling good or bad for pm's?

    ReplyDelete
  114. One has to be blind and deaf to beleive that rule of law applies to the oligarchs in Amerikana. Across the board and politically there is no rule of law and I sense we are alot closer to anarchy than most t.v. addicted sheeple imagine. Look whats happening now in Greece. Daily riots. They were fleeced by Goldman. At what point do things break here?

    I would not be surprised to learn that Blythe reads this and other silver boards for kicks and to smash thru posted support and resistance lines to sweep out stops. All of these people are heinous criminals of the first order of magnitude and they enjoy their sociopathy. They fully enjoy being criminals. Essentially we have descended into a midieval time once again. We live in Nottingham forest and are trying to survive while the King's men plunder,rape and pillage all around us. Have heart everyone and please hedge when you can, that would be my advice but then what do I know. I dined with a friend who has taken up with the other side on Saturday night. He knew B. Masters and was in the same training program with her around 15 years ago. Said she was pretty then. I asked him if he knew what she was up to now. He said he had changed professions and didn't but he was unconcerned and unaware like most sheeple. If your reading this Blythe his name was a certain C. Cordone. Remember him?

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  115. "Again, if you are now converting your metal back into fiat YOU ARE ONE OF THE DUMBEST PEOPLE ON THE FACE OF THE PLANET."

    Turd, no disrepect. knowing nothing about PM's, i have learned yours is the blog to follow.
    What about the rest of us though who don't have the means to trade. i have a small stack of silver, but i still have to pay for things w/paper. am i dumb cuzz i can't eat my silver? i'm building a small store of non perishables and essentials but selling physical and buying back is the only way i can get ahead. with all that's happened in the last few weeks, except for the 200 oz's bought @ 16.5, if i sold anything i'd be worse off then when i started, so i'm playing the waiting game now. but if i have to sell for a loss to cover the unforseen if my paper runs out, would using plastic be better? sounds like most here have silver to make a paper gain. i thought having something of intrinsic value was the intent of all this. i have to admit to being nervous, i have half of the paper i've earned in my life in physical. and reading this blog it sounds like compared to a lot or most, it's not much. My point to this rant is some of us may not have another choice. if i missed your point, my apologizes, thanks for the guidance.
    Insight... on 4/27 SGS was worked up about having bought @44.9! so don't feel so bad. i thought i did good @ 43.62. only time will tell.

    ReplyDelete
  116. Pailin, completely agree. A long PM investment is a bet against political will to do the right thing, which in this case is to allow the market to deflate like it needs to and liquify the bad debt. Nothing I have seen in has led me to believe that the will exists to take that really, really hard medicine. Instead, I think the decision will once again be made to inflate and prolong the day of reckoning.

    ReplyDelete
  117. @FreeBoundary

    Thank you for that post about AGQ. Now that you've revealed that it's a fraudulent security, what do I do with my holdings, since you say that broken parabolas don't recover. (What do you mean exactly by broken parabolas? This doesn't mean that the silver price (in fiat numbers) won't recover, does it?) Should I now sell all my AGQ at the 60+% loss it has taken, and just buy physical? Surely, staying in AGQ would not mean that I'm helping to fight the EE. What to do?!!

    You said last night that AGQ is not meant to hold for retirement. I'm just 34 years old, so I have a decent investment horizon. You seemed to suggest that when silver gets back to 49, that AGQ would be back in the 370s. If broken parabolas don't recover in AGQ, does this mean that it never will reach even the 300s again? God, AGQ is making me lose my mind.

    So, now that you've found the things out about AGQ that you have, what would you suggest us losing holders of AGQ do? Sell at a huge loss, or hold till it recovers and then get out of it for good?

    ReplyDelete
  118. Breaking out. YESSSS. You guys gotta stop the debating club and make some money.

    ReplyDelete
  119. Ok - well these last 10 days i think has aged me a good 2 years. I officially am sitting in mostly cash (finally, right?) - after hedging with the intent of taking profit off the table on ANY sign of strength, of which there was almost none, i fall under the category of "I live to fight another day". I did not lose a penny in this slaughter from 48-32 but if we go any lower from here, the physical i own will start to encumber 'loss' i suppose.

    Turd - the only thing that allows me to say this, is as you say, ive hedged with some timely PUT options on SLV (my short vehicle of choice). otherwise i could be down several thousand. i had to book some shitty losses with those put profits though, and now that im mostly out of the paper game, ill now have to look to be protecting the physical price with more puts if we see more weakness going forward. I cant imagine that we dont see at least another jutting down into the 32 range. im prepared if we go lower. If these puts expire worthless that would officially put me at break even from the point that i was at 3 months ago now. A sucky prospect, but i learned a hell of a lot and didnt have to lose the shirt on my back in doing so.

    man this all still just sucks though. i much prefer where i was at 2 weeks ago

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  120. I would attribute the rise in gold/silver to Crude finding its swagger again...

    ----

    I really can't get over this quote:

    May 12, 2011, 10:49 a.m. EDT

    Bernanke: System unstable if debt limit not lifted

    (MarketWatch) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday that if Congress doesn't agree to increase a fast approaching $14.3 trillion borrowing limit it would result in an increase in interest rates, a worsening deficit and a destabilized financial system. "The costs would be an increase in interest rates which would worsen our deficit and hurt all borrowers in the economy," Bernanke said at a Senate Banking Committee hearing on the financial system. "The worst outcome would be that the financial system would again destabilize, which would have extremely dire consequences for the economy."

    ---
    The Debt ceiling is going to be breached on Monday... something has to give and soon...

    ReplyDelete
  121. I don't trade any move that I don't think has 6 month significance, except to hedge, but that green xau might be telling us something short term. :)

    ReplyDelete
  122. S&P 1340 saved once again, commodities safe once again.

    The battles are getting very interesting, wish I knew who will win the war.

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  123. Too soon? Maybe this is going sideways in bigger waves :-)

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  124. Anyone think this rally has legs or is it just another flash in the pan?

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  125. It will be interesting what happens in the next twenty minutes. Noon has not been kind to us the lat two weeks. IN fact, I'm looking to ring the bell on half of my specs in NGD, EXK, and my new hero, AG before 12:00 chimes.

    ReplyDelete
  126. averagejoe, been dealing with it all my life.

    Don't worry about them, if they don't get it by now it probably means they're DUDS (as Steve Quayle calls 'em: Dumb Unto Death).

    Far more important: thank God and give praise for What and Who YOU are. For giving you eyes to see and ears to hear at a time when most are blind and deaf.

    While we should never stop trying to help the dense and the DUDs, at the same time we shouldn't really be too surprised when they still don't get it.

    Fools, idiots, and morons who can't spot the Real bubbles of Dollar and Debt as they are being smashed in the mouth by them are now gonna instruct US about "bubbles" in PM's.

    Kinda like the Israelis who DO have illegal Nuclear Weapons, OUTSIDE the NPT, and allowing NO inspections of Dimona being the very scumbags leading the Legions of 'Tards against Iran. Iran, imagine that! An NPT signatory with a Legal Nuclear program, no nuclear weapons, and the most open inspection parameters of ANY NPT signatory.

    Oh now THAT'S rich too. But should we be surprised? Uhhh, nope.

    Because as Turd also showed with this post, it's a world turned upside down. No, really. Get that straight in your mind and then our perceptions have at least a chance to be right-side up.

    QUIZ:

    In a world turnd upside down, if those with a long track record of lies, deception and evil intent work really really really hard to make the proles think something of long standing value now has no value, or has lost its usefulness, what should you do?

    Fail to answer correctly and there'll be little choice but to banish you from Turd Town! You will have learned nothing...

    ReplyDelete
  127. Wow, Ag looks nice. Is it Ben's handiwork again?

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  128. Dollar need BRAAAIINS, dollah tired, dollar sleep now.

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  129. GDX going green. I'm holding now. This is a serious money move. Take advantage of it people.

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  130. I have always counted fiat spent on PM's as dead old money not to be sold to back into fiat. Swap the SGR yes but not to go back to fiat for the forseeable future no matter what price take downs occur. Just my take but realize we all see things from a different perspective. One thing that should be taken into consideration if one sells their physical will there be phys available when you want to buy back and, if scarce as back in 2008 take down, what will the premiums be. In 2008 silver dropped to 8.50 spot and I had to search the country to find it and had to pay $13. Still have it though.

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  131. Sounds like you're enjoying yourself, SSK :-)

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  132. Vic ur the worst kind of sheep.

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  133. @vic

    Are you typing from Blyths trading desk ?

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  134. Trader Dan: Open interest readings indicate that a decent number of new shorts were also blown out of the water leading me to believe that this market is very soon going to begin consolidating and working sideways


    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7RxlPQCL9FI/TcvTk6xECoI/AAAAAAAAB5s/d9aA-L7KSFE/s1600/Silver%2B5-12-11.bmp

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  135. Sumo,

    I'm sorry. I thought we were here to make money.

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  136. http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/2011_05_01_archive.html

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  137. I'll start getting excited if $34 holds here

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  138. @Diamond, as I said yesterday and today, I have absolutely no idea where silver will be next week and next month. It can be $50 or $25, I really don’t know. So I am in no position to make any recommendation to you regarding selling your position.

    The only fact you everyone reading this blog should realize:

    Nobody knows nothing in this market. When making your investment decision with your money, you are on your own.

    Have you read Jesse’ Reminiscence of stock market operator, or “how I made 2 million”? The wisdom to learn from there is
    that “you NEVER ever invest based on tips from other people.” By relying on tips, you go broke in matter of time. I suggest you to build your own principle and discipline. Then use this opportunity as an opportunity to learn. Then eventually you will be millionaire sooner or later.

    That said, my only suggestion is set your target level when to sell. Do you target to some profit with that position? Do you want to recover 100%? Or just 90%? Do you want to sell all at once or partially at certain level? Have you considered hedging as Turd suggested?

    Hope this helps.

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  139. I am going out on a limb and saying they raise the debt ceiling tomorrow (just before the weekend, as with all "big news"), and all of this commodity knockdown was to queue in the raising the debt ceiling in the right kind of environment (lowering commodities, stronger dollar). We are all looking at justifications for QE III, while there is a very pressing issue (for Political Purposes) in raising the Debt Ceiling. On Monday it will "officially" be over the legal limit, and I can guarentee you that is not a good thing for the citizens of America to see.

    In regards to "QE III," I don't think there will be a justification instead rather a "forced rescue package" (with a better PR name obviously). No way the market lets the FED practice QE III and act like nothing is wrong.

    I may not be right, but this really feels like it is all coming together.... I mean seriously look at Ben Bernanke... the chairman of the world reserve currency is even addressing the issue. You know it is coming...

    This quote just honestly I cannnot get over!!

    May 12, 2011, 10:49 a.m. EDT

    Bernanke: System unstable if debt limit not lifted

    (MarketWatch) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday that if Congress doesn't agree to increase a fast approaching $14.3 trillion borrowing limit it would result in an increase in interest rates, a worsening deficit and a destabilized financial system. "The costs would be an increase in interest rates which would worsen our deficit and hurt all borrowers in the economy," Bernanke said at a Senate Banking Committee hearing on the financial system. "The worst outcome would be that the financial system would again destabilize, which would have extremely dire consequences for the economy."

    (obviously could be wrong)
    Hang in there everyone..

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  140. @Chin

    Yes, silver is "scarce" compared to the billion/trillion paper derivative ponzi scheme. But overall, I am beginning to lean toward the "not so scarce" mindset. Now, that is not to say that silver is worthless. I believe recent action has proven that silver holds some "special value" for illuminati/NWO types, hence their all-out assault to make it *seem* worthless.

    Question for those out there who foresee the EE raid to take us down to ~20$: do you have a timeframe for this to play out? Seems like 2-3 months is the consensus I'm picking up on so far. Or are we playing out 2008 all over again, slow slump then Fall crash?

    What do you think?

    ~~~"The Jeepster"

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  141. Hey Chin...I agree on fiat and physical. If I go without food for a wk maybe sell a little to eat otherwise defend with all available fire power! hehehe

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  142. Yes, American is indeed the land of the free [to F you over in any way, shape, manner or form by the TPTB]...

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  143. Talking about bubbles..someone posted on zerohedge, a few months ago, a chart showing the 50 greatest bubbles and where silver stood. We were near the bottom of the chart considering the tulip bubble went up 16,000%. Anyone have that GRAPH??

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  144. It's 12:00. So precious metals must go down.

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  145. This was just a practice bubble to get us ready to trade the real thing when it happens.

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  146. Anyone Still holding your South Sea Company stock waiting for a rebound?

    Ha ha ha

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  147. Remember the good old days of the COMEX close FUBM? I miss those. I really do.

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  148. Thoughts on QEIII... we all know that they need to replace 80% of the bond purchasing once if they stop QE.... so how can they stop it?

    Ideas:
    1) Just stop for a month or two. During that month the banks are instructed to buy US bonds with the windfalls they are making shorting commodities. In a month or two, commodities will be down and stocks will be hurting...much easier to announce a resumption.

    2) Let Japan do the money printing for a while...they are printing enough they can buy US bonds for a few months.

    3) Say that they are stopping to scare the commodities market...but then continue in "stealth mode".

    4) All of the above.

    Any thoughts?

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  149. I am still underwater in the silver ETF I bought at around 47. Heh. I will ride the son of a bitch all the way down to zero if I have to, I am a patient man. I intend to sell it for what I paid for it or a small profit. I can wait for a price recovery. If there isn't one, well that's what I get for speculating in paper in the first place.

    But my physical metals are just fine. I will be buying more in the event of a huge price decline in silver and gold. I will keep on holding them as they are my security blanket and I love my coins anyway.

    So I am not concerned really with any of these shenanigans. They are what they are and I will not be moved to sell ANY of my physical or sell the ETF. I will keep on keeping on and persevere over time.

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  150. @diplocat

    excellent point(s).

    The Hunt brothers proved silver could be pushed to bubble prices by a mere handful, literally a handful of people.

    One could also argue that a short squeeze is merely the flipside of cornering the market, and likely to have similar results and last as long.

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  151. @Chin Music

    I agree with you completely. Trading in fiat for PM's boils down for me to simply trading in something that, in truth, has the intrinsic value of linen based paper for something that has both a monetary value (this is variable as we see in spot prices, etc.) and true intrinsic value as in "what its worth in the world of industry, etc. Because we still have to interact with a system that is designed to accept fiat vs. precious metals I am not going all-in getting rid of my dry powder. Maybe I will wish I had in the not to distant future but for now what fiat I release in exchange for PM's causes me no regret at all.

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  152. letting some oz. go on the Bay for a modest gain... w/ the intent to buy back in at the *sale* price currently.
    So were do my risks lay?
    - That I could be in mid transition, and SHTF rapidly w/ PM prices?

    - Could there be some NEW TAX placed on purchasing physical?

    -SHTF completely, and be left holding fiat?

    The risk seems greater of Silver price eroding lower than me getting caught in the middle of a few day, transaction to gain MORE oz.
    am I wrong?

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  153. Jim Rogers Says Dollar Is Long-Term ‘Total Disaster’

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-11/jim-rogers-says-dollar-is-total-disaster-in-the-long-term-1-.html

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  154. Jeepster

    I am leaning in the direction that the FED will pause between QE2 and QE3 which if played out all markets will go down. Along with that the PM's will follow and that $20 price tag is possible. I have advised anyone with 401K or IRA to go to the sidelines for now until we see where the markets go into the fall. So why did I advise,as stated in earlier post, for Fr & Fam to purchase phys here at the $33 level. If we do go down to the $20 area I do expect premiums to be high ($28+?) and phys to be scarce as I experienced in 2008.

    If this possibility plays out I believe the FED will quickly (after take down) roll out QE3 and all will reverse. And then if any want to go back in market with their 401's or IRA's I believe they could.

    So my take is buy phys here and side lines for all other investments into the end of June. If I am wrong no harm no foul because by Christmas all is good with the PM's in hand.

    If I'm correct there is a good possibility I couldn't get much better pricing on PM's than here. Either way these purchases are a win long term. My Fr & Fam understand this now and like the thought process.

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  155. When the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange starts trading gold contracts, it will begin to help gold find its true value, with silver soon to follow.

    No wonder NY/Comex players are panicking by creating this month's extrordinary takedown. they know their days are numbered.

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  156. New Max Keiser episoder where he interviews Eric Sprott, particularly on silver.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VnT7o_QwVE&feature=player_embedded

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  157. You guys need to get real.

    We're in a down channel right now. Not much going to change that until we make a DAILY higher high. And then build on top of it. Any sort of sudden emergency news like QE3, war with Iran, etc. will greatly help our cause, BUT it will also include tons of volatility as both camps (longs and shorts) will want to trade on their emotional position on the matter. And of course there's always the CME margin crap to consider. This thing will play out for weeks if not months. How are you going to get through it if you're stuck in a bad trade, but still watching the tape all day like things are just going to magically turn around?

    Down channel means there are all sorts of vultures waiting to pounce on every daily rally near previous day high, that's along with usual EE games.

    Right now that daily high bar is set at 39.50. The risk/reward scenario favors down more than up right now. Sit tight, if you feel right. Otherwise, sell down till you can sleep at night. Take a loss on a rally, like the one we just had to 34.50. There may be another around 3pm or so. No telling if it will be higher than 34.50 or not. They like to stair step us down. Later today we might only get 34 and overnight may or may not want to buy into this. At some point they will, but maybe that's not till 30 or even 28?

    If silver makes 38 later today, will that have changed your life? Probably not. You're probably still underwater from the 40s, right? So you've got some hope, but also some dread. Right now it's more likely to bump into 32 and then 30. How will that affect you? Less hope and even more dread, compounded by "shoulda/could/woulda sold" playing over and over in your head. Why emotionally wreck yourself on this stuff?

    Long trend charts, weekly and monthly, show RSI heading towards the same RSI numbers set in the past on big dumps. But they don't show that we're there yet. How long a ride down can you take? Maybe it's better to take the loss and buy back in when things look a lot more positive? That's what I did at 42 with positions bought at 44 and 46. I actually had the crazy thought then that I could hold on until 38 before my margin acct would be called to zero. Then I looked at the chances of 38 vs. 50 again and dumped into each small rally I could get. Best move I made because I'm still here to play at low 30s.

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  158. Just heard the latest interviews with Eric Sprott and Jim Sinclair. Excellent. Now can anyone advise me as to the best short term momentum indicator that they use? I am tweaking my intraday signals and would very much like suggestions.

    thanks so much to everyone, especially the Great Turd, the one and the only.

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  159. Pailin is correct this market is a nut house, and we are its mental patients.

    Crazy swings...un-natural as I have ever seen.

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  160. @pforth re: QE3?

    1) very good possibility that the fed starts re buying in a few months, but only if stocks and commodities crash

    2) I doubt japan will be buying much, other than what they have to anyway to hold as reserves for the surplus goods they are selling the USA

    3) They will be buying lots with money gained from maturites on their existing portfolio

    4) The fed is absolutely certain the dealers will step up in a big way and buy, otherwise they would have tapered the buying and end date of QE2. Time for Goldman and the others to pay back some favours, at least for a few months.

    5) China will continue to be a big buyer, as they must, as long as they want to keep their biggest customer afloat.

    So I don't think there will be any big surprise at end of QE2, I mean, even El-Erian has said the end of QE2 is priced in.

    But 3 to 6 months from now? Could all be a different story. I am patiently waiting my chance to short treasuries, I am long a small amount of TBT now, just for a quick trade, I will sell it when the panic hits in June.

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  161. @Diamond, one more quick thoughts for you other holders of AGQ.
    My point on AGQ made earlier today was to discourage people from jumping into AGQ going forward. But for people like you who are holding AGQ already, don’t sweat on its nature. It is backed by EE(big banks), meaning that is will be around for a while and slippage you worry about is perhaps much smaller than your total loss. So just focus only when to sell at what level the silver, instead of worrying about two things:’silver price’ and ‘nature of AGQ’. However, I am really not an expert on AGQ, so again take my words with grain of salts.

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  162. hahaha my word verification was 'raillys', sounds like a rally to me, considering my word yesterday was 'beatdon' lol

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  163. SSK

    Glad to see you got your mojo back!!

    Me? yeah I'm kind of liking this action too. Topped up my miners and oils first thing this morning. Just a rebalancing of allocations, but hey it's nice to see something go up once.

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  164. CONgress/SINate circle jerk round the debt ceiling invisible table. All the while water runs over the dam these jackasses put in place. I say damn the dam makers. Wonder how many trillions run up on the debt before the ceiling is taken to an intellectual masturbatory vote in self gratification. Cluster flocking to disaster with near complete idiots. Some pieces still missing in the insanity of it all!

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  165. Scottj88-I like your prognosis of the timing of the debt ceiling announcement.

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  166. Now EXK is breaking out. EE's having to play whack-a-mole. Silver miners keep popping back. Ideal for a trader. Of which I seem to be the only one around here.

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  167. 3 simple words Guarantee a free home.."Produce The Note"...
    the MERS system completely broke chain of title.... Now most mortgage notes became UNSECURED loans..equivalent to cc debt.....the banks, fanny, freddie all holding worthless paper because they can't foreclose.... This will of course be good for household spending tho.....I have several friends who are about to get their homes for free,,No BS...
    Prepare..because the shits about to hit the fan.... Starting to think that May 21 2011 end if the world thing isn't so crazy after all.

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  168. Yup Thanks for sharing your thoughts Pailin. Great aspect of this blog is when people give their honest take on it.
    I seem to be caught in a mental trap where the fundamentals of the monetary system and the challenges of the physical market (still in backwardation) are going to overcome this EE induced technical sell off, which of course in hindsight shouldn't be surprising...although the size of the move down has certainly put fear into a lot of folks.
    I've learned a lot on this sell off...and the world keeps turning.

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  169. Eric,

    Hey there. Just saw your comment. Where is everybody? Atlee, Steve, Tom, Soccer Dad? Has everybody rushed out to fill even more rooms with canned salmon and Mexican whatevers?

    There is mojo out there today. Use it. I keep watching NGD. As soon as it takes out 9.54, it's going to pop. We've seen the same thing with AG, SLW, CDE, PAAS, and EXK.

    Also loaded up on TRE as it seems to trade in these crazy bursts. You have to set an ask for this one as the rise lasts about thirty seconds.

    GG just popped green too. Gold miners are lagging the pack. But not for long.

    I do believe we have ourselves the glimpse of a COMEX FUBM.

    SSK

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  170. think todays rally over nobody gonna wanna hold the bag again overnight i bet.

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  171. @turd

    right on. You nailed it. Here is a BTFD animation. Watch it to get inspired to do so:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vs7-yDO6i9Y

    Then head over here to read why silver market manipulation will not end anytime soon:

    http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/market-manipulation-not-to-end-soon.html

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  172. sent wheres the note to bank of america they sent back a fu you , u signed this and here it is so wheres the note doesnt work only in derivatives and the big boys pockets

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  173. Rick

    I am sure no one is getting thru your fortress without lead induced consequences ... :-)

    John

    I truly believe PM's in hand are the foundation to any PM investing. PM's first and foremost. Without that one is building on sand. Stocks, options and others secondary and according to expertise and risk tollerance.

    Just my opinion.

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  174. @SSK

    I'm trading, but silver is too crazy for me.

    Just sold my TBT for my daily 50 cent gain. BTFD on TBT.

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  175. To be fair to some of the "dumbest people on the planet" who sold some physical. I think some got too excited about the run up and ran too thin on cash and had to convert back. I just max out my JP Morgue charge account. :D

    My advice to many to "sell in May or start to pray" is not as powerful as the blinding wealth effect. I hate to pull them out cause it will be in tragic times to come, but I have just as many "told ya so" dances stored up as silver bars. Sound sad, but I have to be in this for myself and my family, so I don't have the energy to convert anyone anymore.

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  176. SSK-

    Also doing an AGQ trade today, but was not sure about announcing it, it looks pretty good now but it looked dicey for a while, and not sure if I want to hold it overnight.

    I like Scottj's prediction about raising the debt ceiling tonight or tomorrow, and that's why the EE is not worried about the PMs today.. they have gotten the prices down as much as they needed to stop the "rising oil" stories, and scared folks away from the PMs for a while.

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  177. @pforth

    don't know how this will play out but yes someone will have to buy our bonds, and that someone will likely be the fed.

    don't think japan will help us here, maybe b4 the earthquake had happened.

    the banks maybe can buy them, but from the sheer magnitude of debt, get the sense that this is well beyond what the banks can do. but then again with leverage maybe they can sop up the excess liquidity. last i checked these banks make in the range of 10s of billions annually, we need to sop up 10s of billions weekly to prevent bond market from collapse

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  178. Turd thanks for the valuable lessons I learnt so far.

    It has probably been discussed here before, but the Discovery series Gold Rush Alaska is a must see for all Turdites :) Those people go to great lengths to get their hands on some gold. Inspirational to say the least.

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  179. I haven't said much, 'cuz I don't know what to say. . .

    To those able to make $$ day trading with leverage and margin, or in AGQ and other speculative vehicles, you have my utmost respect. To those who have been wiped out, or are underwater, you have my sympathy.

    My risk tolerance is tested by dabbling in explorers and junior miners in a cash account. I make $$ at it (over time) and sleep good at night whatever the markets throw at us from day to day.

    Let me emphasize one point about my strategy. . . I sleep good at night. (Even after 2 weeks of selling pressure.)

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  180. Kiwi and Huma,

    If we can keep the buy pressure up through the COMEX close, we damn well might have us a rally post 1:25. The only problem, of course, is that all rallies will meet strong sell-offs. Everyone is spooked and quick to book any gain. I know I am.

    I've got my eye on the GDX. It has to stay above 55. Otherwise, this is a sucker's rally.

    Tight stops everyone.

    Word verification: gaines. How apropos.

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  181. can anyone give me a daily suggestion to get back some of my fiat.

    right now I have either been buying 1 put or call a day and then selling after a .05 or .06 change. I only have 1K left in cash, so I am only getting about $100 a day.

    today I bought an october 50 call
    yesterday I bouhgt a 28 put

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  182. Wow. Sweet short cover going here. I'll be shorting it soon if it keeps going vertical.

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  183. Indirect bidders buy 33% of 30-year bond sale


    Bidders offer $2.43 for each $1 in 30-year debt


    Treasury sells 30-year bonds at 4.38%

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  184. of course as soon as i sell my position it finally breaks out and up

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  185. wow, AG(FR) is at 18.77 now, a level when silver was around $36.5 last time. Sign of recovery in mining sector?

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  186. At what price are you planning to short Pailin

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  187. Just wanted to chime in to say that I am very encouraged by todays action in the metals and the miners. Only silver has made a lower low. Gold did not and many of the miners did not.
    Lets now look for another stab down tomorrow or Monday and THEN we may be able to do some buying.

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  188. I'm watching the 5min RSI and clock. If that RSI hits 80 I'm short a small position, that may be a little over 35, ideally in the next 5 mins or so as the steam will let out post-COMEX.

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  189. First Majestic and Allied Nevada are running neck and neck on my list to be hero of the day.

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  190. waffen-

    Ouch! Been there, done that, still have the scars....sympathy...

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  191. Pailin: careful, oil is getting a bid

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  192. C'mon...one more push to 35.20...

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  193. So it's finally hitting the MSM that the recession (depression) is not over, nor is housing in anything remotely resembling a recovery. I feel bad for friends who caught knives last year, though I was open about not buying yet. They might be ok, though; they bought an REO property, and they intend to stay put for 10-20 years, while we are looking to get out of here at the first viable opportunity. Gone are the days of flipping a house in 2-5 years! It was tough for us, at times, to sit on the sidelines. We have a baby and one more on the way, so the urge to buy for emotional reasons was strong at times. But I just kept reading Doctor Housing Bubble (great blog!!) and sitting on my hands, and convincing my husband that we were doing the right thing. There was one house we loved, but it was ridiculously overpriced. Incredibly, someone just caught that knife for $300/sq ft! Instead, we found a great rental with gardener, assoc fees, prop taxes and some utils paid by the owner. We're investing slowly but surely in PMs... learning as we go along. I'm so glad I found this blog to refer to for PM advice.

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  194. eric#1,

    My hero of the day is South American Silver. SAC.TO / SOHAF

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  195. @SSK

    i think alot r waiting on the sidelines.

    i get the sense that number of true day traders here (in and out of most positions by end of the day) is low. i think most are swing traders, or at least willing to hold positions for a few days or weeks, overnight and through the weekend.

    for those of us in that boat, like myself, i can't get too carried away with intraday shenanigans right now b/c the charts are "broken" from a technical standpoint.

    they always say, plan ur trade and trade ur plan. well right now, i haven't come up with any good plan. so i'm sitting tight and waiting for more info.

    without a doubt the biggest questions are macro related right now with QE2 ending soon. this will likely drive the market one way or another and reestablish a trend. currently the recent bull market in commodities may be broken or close to it based on 100 day MA. i generally trade the trend but i don't see bull or bear now. as an option trader i also do not have the guts to take any real position in regards to volatility, either.

    my PM physical holdings are not going to be sold regardless of the market trend, imo trading and selling gold and silver coins and bars is a waste of transaction time and energy, b/c the slippage. i will sell those either when a new currency is established or when i wake up from this dream to a non-corrupt, mathematically astute congress.

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