Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Searching For Confirmation

The scenario I laid out last night in"Turd's #2" is very much intact and alive this morning. Therefore, instead of the usual gold and silver charts, today I give you some backup info to watch.

First, the POSX. We began looking for a dead cat bounce about four weeks ago. It has certainly come to fruition, even exceeding our goals for the rally. However, it has met its match at 76 and looks ready to begin rolling back over. Dollar weakness will clearly ease the pressure on the PMs.
Next, have you noticed yet the correlation between gold and the S&P? They've been moving almost in unison for about two weeks now. If you believe like I do that The Bernank will not allow stocks to head dramatically lower as that would be detrimental to his beloved "wealth effect", then you must expect stocks to turn higher again soon. Watch the 1315-1320 level in the ES for clues.
Ah, now here's a real interesting chart. Our old friend, DrC. IF it can move UP through 410...and I have a last of 406...there will be an undeniable reverse H&S on the chart. Without question, a bottom and a rally in copper will provide buying support for our PMs.
Lastly, here's crude. The damage inflicted buy the O'bottom Administration was large but it has left us with a clear chart pattern. A break above 100 and we can safely feel like the lows are in. A break below 95 and you need to be out. Given the political uncertainty and general unrest of the MENA region, a break down through 95 seems highly unlikely.

OK, that's it. Please go back and re-read "Turd's #2" if you're looking for levels to watch today in the PMs. I have lasts of 1493 and 34.70 so things continue to look up. Be on the lookout for raids but, more importantly, be on the lookout for FUBMs. The re-emergence of the FUBM will be your most certain sign that the storm has passed.

I'll be out for most of the day. I'll update through my phone if absolutely necessary otherwise look for another post this afternoon. TF

ps Gold at 1500 and silver at 35 are very encouraging. Also, July copper just tapped 410.
You can start getting excited above 1505 and 35.50. Until then, just stay encouraged.

332 comments:

  1. Thanks, Turd! It was nice to wake up this morning to your cautiously-optimistic-yet-giddy-with-excitement prior post.

    What's FUBM?

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  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  3. What is Fubm and Calvin?
    And where can we find a post with all the anacronyms?

    Pogman

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  4. Dept of Energy crude, distillate and gasoline inventories out at 10:30 edt. Could get a bit volatile and provide some entry points. I'm looking for July contracts now.

    PMs looking good, Louis!

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  5. Appears buyers are reentering the market, I am looking forward to seeing he ADX after the close today for $silver

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  6. @ Pogman and Alex

    FUBM = F U Blythe Masters...it's when silver shoots up sharply off the bottoms.

    Calvin = Dead Cat Bounce

    TF thanks again, you don't have to do this blog, and I know it comes at great expense to your personal time, but it means so much to so many of us. Thank you.

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  7. Gold & Silver, Good vs. Evil and the Triumph of the Insanity Principle.

    http://theeveningchronicle.blogspot.com/

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  8. FUBM = F*ck You Blythe Masters

    basicaly people buying the f*cking dip after a Evil Empire raid on metals


    Calvin is a dead cat that bounced when Turd was a kid, so a Calvin is a dead cat bouncing.

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  9. I say we saw the bottom for gold and silver yesterday, we're now out of the woods and moving higher... even if the U.S. Dollar continues to rally, I don't think it can stop the PM rally...

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  10. In the a-picture-is-worth-a-thousand-words category: (from ZeroHedge this morning)

    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/images/History%20of%20money.jpg

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  11. Thanks for the FUBM and CALVIN info. I love them.
    And thanks Turd for all you do!

    Pogman

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  12. Eric#1 - Yep, all systems are go for 6/2. Pail piggy stored under the galley floor boards with the black olives and brown rice. Engine tuned with new carb. installed. De-winterizing the two Honda generators today. Ballerina is wrapping up the school year and ready to live in a bathing suit for the summer.
    My Panthers come tomorrow and 50 pesos on Friday. Click, click goes the purple bag.

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  13. really good volume b/w $34.50-$34.90. Gold up to $1498.

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  14. Real nice pop so far, hopefully it has legs...

    Here's a new piece from Bix Weir/Road to Roota:

    I'm A Crazy Silver Bug...Why Aren't You?!!

    http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/597.cfm

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  15. nice pop... took a bullet back near 35 (AGQ@171) now back under 50% in, comfortable letting this ride up closer to 39-40 and ready to BTFD if we see 34...

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  16. Thanks TF. Hopefully we will close over that 35 and 1500 level like he said!

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  17. Hmmm.

    Tying PMs to equities? This suggests that one needs both in their investment portfolios. While both markets are manipulated, with equities there is better analytic information, and equivalent results. Take PPO, for example. The stock has been doing well because the company has good results, and a bright future. When it reported poorly, it fell, but when it reported well, it jumped. And no Blythe with which to contend.

    Diversification is protection. Go AU and AG, but don't forget that a balanced approach to anything in life is best. And after a couple of nasty, nasty weeks in the PMs, isn't it great to sense a change in the atmosphere this week?

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  18. Concerning SLV the ADX has turned and shows buyers are now in the market and sellers are leaving. The buyers indicator is now going up, up, up, while the sellers indicator is going down, down, down...

    Also the Acuum/Dist line is heading up, meaning it is in accumulation........

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  19. My allocations to Impact Silver and Great Panther were getting a little light, so I topped those up this morning. Got a couple of eBay bids riding today. Time to go be productive on other fronts for a while.

    Maybe cook up a batch of fried potatoes with onions and Canned Bacon first!!!

    Good Luck All

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  20. FUBM....FUBM....FUBM......!!

    Huat Ah....Huat Ah!!

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  21. wow man u r doing it again, top notch work turd

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  22. Turd, you got it right this time :D

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  23. Volume for Sept 11 ($37.12) silver has almost doubled this morning.......

    I was hoping we could stay down under $35.00 this week so I could pickup more from my source Sat.

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  24. I'm interested in seeing how many and how quickly longs come back into the game. Normally, an attack like the may day massacre would likely cause traders to shift to another market/commodity.

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  25. Shorts are getting squeezed...go baby...

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  26. I am amazed at how accurately the silver chart follows the EUR/USD one. Check the shape of the graphs yesterday when we bounced $33 2-3 times. Almost identical. In the last 1 hour silver escaped from the tight range only after eur/usd bounced from 1.42. Now we will breach 35 only if Eur/usd convincingly escapes the area near 1.42.

    It is hard to use it in trading though as there isn't lag in one of the two ratios.

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  27. just got my shipping info from gainsville from the 43 dip I bought. That deal cost me 3 oz.

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  28. Sprott Sees A Major Move To Precious Metals

    http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2011/05/sprott-sees-major-move-to-precious.html

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  29. Zaku-

    From what I read, it looks like the general stock market will stay weak until QE3 (in whatever form)is announced. I got out of my miner mutual funds and into a utilities fund (supposedly a good "defensive" play) and a corporate bond/convertable stock fund (also a defensive play, but with decent returns).

    AGQ (and some pool silver) gives me enough exposure to the PMs until the market turns again. If QE3 takes off, the market and the miners will probably fly.

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  30. we're all in deep shit folks....

    http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201105170428.html

    Of course the MSM will say all is well, go buy a summer wedding dress or something.

    And notice the MSM has said zero about the ILLEGAL law passed yesterday by the SCOTUS and the 4th amendment right?

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  31. This is an article that may make your day. It is all speculation now, but it sounds like DSK from the IMF made a pretty stupid move. More stupid than originally thought http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/05/dsk-accuser-lives-in-bronx-housing.html

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  32. As for those raids, since gold and silver act more or less in tandem, it so means there is a collusion between JPM and HSBC for the respective silver and gold suppression scheme.
    Prior to a possible announcement of a continuation by the Fed of QE we can expect to get a smack down in gold.., well wasn't that the case when QE1 was announced?

    What levels do you suggest to take short positions in the PM's, as the true trader is not afraid to do so..

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  33. Shill,

    Casey's Jeff Clarke's interview was revealing - investment advisors of course aren't pushing precious metals, its their clients who want to diversify out of paper. Advisors have a huge conflict of interest - whereas one should be protecting ones clients' portfolio via a % in precious metals, the vast majority won't - every $ invested in the physical means 1 less $ to earn commission on.

    The business owners, doctors, lawyers, accountants, etc. will eventually wake up. Key word of course being eventually.

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  34. Turd, if I've understood you right here's my summary: Gold is tracking the S&P, and silver is tracking gold, and until recently oil had a strong effect on both PM's, while Copper gives an indication on the future direction of both PM's?
    I suspect the banking cartel will do their best to contain gold to be range bound between 1500 and 1520, crucially to ensure gold in EUR doesn't signal a break-out and trigger the algos into buy mode. What says Turd?

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  35. No one knows how long the USDinker dollar plays blindmans bluff, eventually called out on a count of darkness. Certain a tsunami of debt & spending will sweep fiat USDinker dollars away. Ones choice is to protect their financial future by obtaining physical gold/silver. When the masses awaken to the death of the dollar it will also be certain no physical gold/silver will be availble at these prices; if at any paper fiat money price.

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  36. I would like to compliment Turd on his most excellent bottom...

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  37. kiwiquest . . .

    You're right about weakness until some variant of QE3, and of course Summer is generlly a time to be nimble. A good defensive play would also be consumer staples, if you think inflation is here to stay. PG and PEP come to mind.

    Some interesting potential "pop" plays are G and HOLX and NXTM.

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  38. I expect us to be in a trading range with an upward bias for awhile, maybe through the summer. There is the opportunity to make decent trading profits in that environment once you have a feel for the range.

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  39. Last Saturday my set of 2010 America the Beautiful 5-oz Silver coins arrived from APMEX, and when I opened the package I was pleasantly surprised to find them already graded & slabbed by PCGS.

    All were graded MS69 First Strike, two of the five DMPL (Deep Mirror Proof-Like) and the remaining three PL. Nice coins – and if you like Physical, these have a good, weighty feel in your hand.

    But if one is a trader rather than a collector, the thing to do is to put emotions on the back burner for the sake of return. A well-written ad on Craigslist resulted in selling the set for $1,850 – netting nearly $900 in profit.
    ------------------------------------
    And now for the Question of the Day (two parts):
    - If you happened upon a $900 windfall and like Physical – what would you Buy with it?

    - Or would you keep your powder dry and wait for prices to drop yet again?

    -Mammoth

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  40. SSK,
    Took your advice and sold half my TRE position for a $500 profit (wow, its been a while since I've wrote that), going to try and be patient now for my $6.75. Thinking we'll retest $1490 gold again before we break $1500.
    Going for base hits this time, still gun shy.

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  41. Mammoth-

    The one comment I would have (and it's something I have a terrible time with) is that there will ALWAYS be another dip coming along... no matter how bull the market, there will be corrections along the way and good opportunities to buy in.

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  42. Came across this article while browsing the internet, may be interesting to some of you historical types

    http://www.silver-investor.com/charlessavoie/cs_may04.htm

    Hope you have all done well over the last few days, I managed to rake in arounf $90k going long on the charted bottom at $33, not to say I wasnt shitting my pants when it fell through but im now out and have invested proceeds into my silver mine AGQ, for those interested they are about to publish an updated resource report with probable big increases and exposure to gold mineralisation.

    Here is the CEO chatting

    http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?display=discussion&code=cotn:AGQ.L

    disclosure, im in for over a million shares and see the share price multiplying in months.

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  43. What are people's opinions of copper coins, for those of us with only a few hundred bucks to buy physical? Is it a poor investment relative to silver?

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  44. Soccer,

    Sweet. It's time to make our money back.
    I've been playing with oils today. Made a nice trade on BHI.

    I'm just waiting for NGD to pop.

    Tried to short TRE at 7.15. TDAmeritrade had no shares to loan!

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  45. Not one word (of course) last eve or this AM about debt ceiling breach and federal pension grab. Can you imagine that story on CNBS?
    Phone lines would be melting all over the place.

    The massacre was perfect for the investment advisors.
    They'll simply pull up that chart when folks start to inquire about moving into metals. Gotta keep that money in the market or the slide begins.
    Maybe the U of T Endowment move motivates some creative thinking.

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  46. Dammit, I fired a bullet on friday, monday and yesterday. Took one back today, thinking it would be the one I fired on friday and wouldn't have to wait for it to settle. But since I added to the position settlement works off of the last addition. :/

    This is my IRA at USAA, so it's a cash account. Are all brokers like this, as in settlement working off of the date I last added to the position and not when I fired each individual bullet?

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  47. OK, silverfoil hat time- if this is not your thing, just skip and ignore with my compliments!

    Anybody else wondering how and why the IMF chief's sexual assault charge and arrest was brought so quickly in NYC that they arrested him same-day, literally dragging him from his airplane leaving for Europe? I mean, we aren't so stupid here to think that the rule of law in this country applies equally to the wealthy and well-connected- which Dominique Strauss-Kahn certainly is. Yet they leapt into action on behalf of an HIV positive maid from west Africa- doesn't this strike anyone as unusual?

    It implies TPTB WANTED this arrest... why? I'll throw out an idea- because they know the IMF bailouts of PIIGS are the only thing keeping the Euro afloat, and a weakened IMF cannot broker between the stronger parts of the eurozone (i.e. Germany and France) and the weaker piigs. So this was a creative way to strengthen the dollar over the coming months and years, independant of how many they print, thus allowing more room to continue the US ponzi.

    If true, then this would suggest two important things: first, that the fundamental weakness of the diseased and dying USdollar may not be as strong a force, in the short term at least, as we might expect. And second, that things are getting serious enough that the big boys are starting to eat their own. Rats jumping ship, and all that... interesting times.

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  48. get past 35.25ish and we can go to 36.50 today.
    close above 36.50 and we negate (end) the technical down trend we are in.

    close above 38.50 resumes and up trend.

    MHO GLTA

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  49. Turd,

    Congratulations on your calls.

    And don't be shy of saying what you want to say. Don't be afraid, we know there is no one other than you who has courage to say #2.

    All other analysts are almost act like glorified reporters reporting levels and doing running commentary.

    I have not come across any other person like you.

    Please keep it up

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  50. Scott,

    I keep trying to buy some of your RVM for cheap. 3.79 bid isn't filling.

    We've now held and added to the silver price for more than an hour. Can't remember the last time that happened.

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  51. Dave,
    I had the same question recently. Here is a Q&A from NIA (inflation.us) on this very topic.

    FWIW, I am in the same boat as you. My recommendation is to just buy whatever ounces you can of silver as you can. It does & will add up over time!

    " Q: Why haven't you suggested copper as an investment?
    A: We like copper as an investment during hyperinflation, but
    prefer precious metals. Copper isn't nearly as rare as gold
    and silver. While it is easy to store small amounts of gold and
    silver in order to preserve a lot of wealth, copper takes up a
    lot of space and is more difficult to store. It is a lot harder to
    sell copper or barter it for other goods.

    China has been stocking up on copper this year as a way to
    diversify out of the dollar, and copper has made a huge run.
    There is a chance that China could soon reach a capacity in
    their copper inventories, and buy less copper and more
    precious metals.

    Unlike copper, gold and silver are real money and will
    deserve a large monetary premium during hyperinflation."

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  52. Vincent, are you referring to the "invest in these mutual funds, earn 8.5% until you're 55, retire with millions" chart? :)

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  53. Next big resistence level after $35.65'ish will be $36.00.......looks like we are tracking to $36 this morning.....imho...

    Question: why when I'm looking at the futures chart is there two listings for June 11 contracts?

    thx

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  54. GDX retakes 56 and holds, I'm buying hand over fist.

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  55. Dave

    Copper just takes up too much space.

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  56. ECB: Greeks Must Pay Banksters

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-18/greek-restructuring-rejected-by-ecb-officials-in-clash-with-eu-politicians.html

    The European Central Bank is not happy with any of this talk about a restructuring of Greek debt.

    “A Greek debt restructuring is not the appropriate way forward -- it would create a catastrophe” because it would damage the banking system, ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark said today in Lagonissi, Greece, reports Bloomberg. Fellow board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said in Milan that “a solution for reducing debt but not paying for it will not work.”

    Translation, the banksters must be paid in full and on schedule. HT: EPJ

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  57. Gold shy of $1500, Silver skyrocketting....Did the Bernake say something we missed?

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  58. Did news of a QE3 leak or whats going on? :O

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  59. Prices at Golden Eagle, Gainesville, and Provident have gone up 2 dollars since I started watching this morning on Gold Shark. Trying to get my powder together!

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  60. Ginger and Eric, Thanks! I was leaning towards buy the silver, but needed a second (third, fourth) opinion. Thanks again!!! :)

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  61. Zaku....I like your idea about finding a balance....but looking now at PPO....this stock was 7 dollars a couple years ago(same time that SLW was also 7 dollars)....and PPO hasnt just "done well" it has soared hyperbolic from 7 to 70 without any real correction.(a few weeks ago corrected 20% and immediately went hyperbolic again after holding around 52 area support.On a long term chart the 50 MA is around the 40 dollar area.... I couldnt imagine buying PPO now as it hangs at this extreme high mountain peak. The time to buy was last year and 2 years ago.....just like it was with the miners . But still, your general idea is noteworthy.

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  62. Dave,
    Here is another one. Also, if you go to the inflation.us website and click on NIAnswers and then input 'copper' into the keyword search field...you will get about a dozen or more other questions on copper.

    If you are looking at those copper coins at gainesvillecoins.com ...I would NOT pay that premium unless copper coins were specifically something that I just wanted to have onhand. Might take a while for those to go up in value enough to make it worthwhile ..as I believe the coin is only .28 or so...and the premium is well over $1.50. ....Just my opinion though and I could be wrong!

    Q: "Do you recommend buying 1 oz copper rounds, I keep hearing this is the next silver?
    A: The value of copper is so little it is almost not worth
    minting one ounce copper rounds. Copper is not a good
    monetary metal. It is too abundant on earth to deserve a
    large monetary premium like silver and gold. There is no
    reason to buy copper rounds, although it is worth saving
    current nickels in circulation and pennies minted in 1982 or
    prior, because their copper content is worth more than their
    denomination values."

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  63. uptofreedom-

    I also have a USAA account.... as far as I can tell, there's a 3 full business day "settlement period" after you buy before the money will be available again. Say you buy on Monday, add 3 business days, and if you sell on Friday the money will be available in your account again. But if you sell on Wednesday, they will add 3 more business days befor the money is available, so it will be next Tuesday before you have that money available for another trade. Yeah, it makes planning your trades really tricky....hold and you get to use it again, or sell for a quick gain and then wait for another 3 days before the next trade.

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  64. thx atlee good to be back as FOAGQ

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  65. Thanks Turd for your commitment to this blog and your followers. I'm doing my best to make a little fiat off your insights.

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  66. If only we could find a presidential candidate who looked out for the "little guy" like Turd does... (Save the Ron Paul posts as he is great on economic policy and nuts on foreign policy)

    word verification: Pigist (appropriate)

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  67. @Dave
    You might consider nickels..$100 face has a melt value of $128 today. If the deflationists are right, it will always be worth $100. If the inflationists are right it will start trading near melt soon after they quit making nickels or change the composition. IMO a nice choice for a small budget..

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  68. Soccer,

    TRE is going to be interesting to watch. If it can take out 7.20-25, it's off to the races. 7.15-7.20 is stiff resistance. And the number of shorts is tremendously squeezable.

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  69. Hmm. Any ideas as to the sudden spike? Anyone? Bueller?

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  70. @ Dave and Ginger

    Ginger, you make a good point about a problem with copper being the bulk of it. It's not easy to store.

    There's another problem with it too. Jason Hommel's talked about this to some degree: because copper isn't very dense, it takes a great of overhead to mint it. Jason has a 15 lb bar of copper in his silver shop as a display. He does this because the premium on it....was 100%. That's because it's too costly to mint, especially at just $4 a lb. For that reason, he believes it will never be the "go to money". Copper rounds are also priced about 100% over spot too.

    Dave, if you really want some copper for dirt cheap. Go to the bank, ask for rolls of pennies, get as many as you can. Then take out all the pre-1982's. Each one is worth about 3 cents. One day, coin shops might be selling "junk copper" the way they now sell junk silver. Hope that helps!

    Word Ver: Warocc....as in this blog is full of silver & golden warlocks.

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  71. I'm entirely with atlee. 36+ is plausible. A rare bullish Bat harmonic formation which formed earlier could see to it.

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  72. Dave do as Nick says, been hoarding Nickles for a long time now. And the best part other than their actual melt value, you have a sold savings account that is legal tender.

    $2 buck a roll for nickles is cheap. Start now before they debase the nickle with zink.

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  73. Oil Prices Rise on Surprise Inventory Drop

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/43069748

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  74. Once again,I see Turd has a solid vision about the market tone. I completely agree....and in this light I find myself tuning in to watch SLW today as a similar benchmark bellweather.
    It 'bottomed' at 32.43 the other day,held support at the 33 area yesterday and appears breaking out today.

    There is a Gap to mind and fill at the 36.40 area...and pulling back from that ,there are support wings around 34.40
    On the next larger waves there is another gap and fib region around the 40 area...and IF there is a shift to a downtrending wave happening now ...... it would suggest that the bottom at 32.43 would become the end of wave 1 or wave A and the area around 40 would be the likely end of the rally wave B or wave 2....so that 40 would be a 'sell' area to watch for.
    But for right now the gap at 36 area is the next pause or selling adjustment zone I see. I bought into this slide too soon last week at 35.50 so I will be selling this tranche around the 36 gap and looking to rebuy it around 34 or better....but what I really want is to buy 29 and 30 later in the next wave down if there is one.Improving the cost basis where I can.

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  75. Thanks Ginger, Cleburne and Nick. There is a guy near me selling some silver coins, so I think the safe bet is to go with silver. Selling at 32 an ounce. Thank you for the input!

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  76. About this time of day Monday it turned downward (a planned smackdown?). We shall see in an hour or so if it happens again.

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  77. I will get the nickels and some silver! Just need to get rid of this paper :)

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  78. Your only play on copper would be to get lots of US pennies and keep all of those dated 1981 and under, which are copper. These are worth about 2 to 3 cents each, so you can make a profit. Problem is, it requires more time than it is worth. Otherwise, buy silver. A few hundred dollars buys you silver coins still. Also buy some 1/10 ounce gold or junk gold (old 14kt jewelry) at gold spot price if you can get it.

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  79. Pining,

    Yeah, I'm skeptical solely b/c some facts remain unknown, as always. It's possible he was just that stupid. The part I don't get is leaving his phone behind & thus, that's how, if my understanding is correct, they located him at the airport.

    And the maid was 32. I don't know, most hotels I've stayed at, the maids are not less than 50. Then again, I do not stay at $3000 a night hotels, paid of course by taxpayers worldwide.

    Looks like the next step in the Greece saga is asset sales, more budget cuts & the banks owning the country moving forward.

    I don't get the part about catastrophic - so its catastrophic for the banks if they restructure? But what if they default? Is that not also catastrophic for the banking system?

    And if Greece defaults, does this result in a rise in the US$, fall in euro, rise in Gold priced in Euros and this triggering additional buying in gold?

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  80. Thanks, kiwi. Yeah, it sure makes trading tricky... Has me reconsidering my trading strategy/broker. If I could hedge with options in my IRA I'd be comfortable holding for longer periods, but USAA doesn't make options available to IRA's... :/

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  81. Or in a few minutes ...

    Oh, and I'd like to chime in again and thank Turd for this analysis.

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  82. SSK,

    Agree on TRE; 14.5 days to cover short. One big annoucement ( Sinclair is in Africa as of Monday) could lead to a waterfal upwards of course as Shorty finds religion.

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  83. kiwi, uptofreedom,

    You need to research to double check but I think that Ameritrade has the per position settlement period you are looking for, or if not them, then it might be thinkorswim.com (a wholly owned subsidiary of TD Ameritrade).

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  84. In addition to increasing my physical silver, I am sitting on a bunch of nickels. Go to the bank and get the nickels for absolutely no premium! And today 1 nickel = $.0635

    Tomorrow? The mint will change the content to something cheaper, like they did pennies.

    http://inflation.us/coins/

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  85. Turd...all:

    Has anybody read this article yet or know much about Glencore/Marc Rich?

    Glencore IPO Signaling Crash In Commodities Prices: http://moneymorning.com/2011/05/18/is-glencore-ipo-signaling-crash-in-commodity-prices/

    The author's speculation is that commodities are about to crash hard after Glencore's IPO is done. I just don't know enough about it, but if it's correct it could affect us right?

    Maybe the Bernank will let QE2 end and delay more QE long enough to crash things for a little while (month or 2), then crank up the "printing" presses again with QE to infinity.

    Or do you think this is just some conspiracy theory?

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  86. What are the odds of 33 being retested?

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  87. Thanks, Xaritas. Per-position settlements sounds like what I'm looking for. I'll look into Ameritrade/TOS...

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  88. Soon, today or tomorrow, I guess we'll find out if EE still wants to defend 36.

    My guess is they'll wait until buyer volume is weak, then try to push it back down. Then we'll see if the BOS are sincerely back.

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  89. Kinda early for the 12:00 takedown, isn't it?

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  90. In big with RVM at average price of 3.79. Let's see what happens

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  91. save america1st-Marc Faber believes in a delay between QE II and III. his theory is the drop in the stock market will justify qe3. he is looking for a 10-20% drop during the summer and qe3 to follow that, so it could be a rough summer possibly. I have Sep 46-47 call spread (bought in at the first dip) and a 14 dec put to cover myself since I don't have alot of capital to speculate.

    ReplyDelete
  92. @SSK

    i read many of your comments/replies and you appear to be very knowledgeable .
    im hoping that your can provide some insight as to why you purchased GDX?
    More specifically, where do you think it is going and once it gets there, what are you going to do next?

    dont worry--i don't work for the revenue dept; im just trying to learn how to prosper from this secular bull run.

    ReplyDelete
  93. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  94. Probably get some movement from the bernake fable today. either launch higher or pull back.

    Somebody has to say it so:

    Please do not be stupid. Don't put yourself in a postion to get clobbered. Keep your greed in check. Lets not have another crying towel day because you want to believe we are on a one way street again.

    ReplyDelete
  95. OK..,

    BNN just changed their ticker(s) to RED from green!
    Showing TSX in RED(even though TSX up 142pts)
    Gold in the RED(even tho up $18 to 1497)
    Oil in the RED(Red even tho up $3.45)

    Maybe its a signal maybe its a regularly occuring coincidental glitch??

    We'll soon see...

    ReplyDelete
  96. will someone push it past 35.30 please?! ... Hang on maybe if I sell it will go up!?

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  97. OMG! LIQUIDATION EVENT AT FORT KNOX, SELL YOUR PM's NOW, AT THE PEAK!

    Hahaha, sorry for the bad joke, my morning coffee just about came through my nose when I read this on the bb:

    http://www.nysun.com/national/selling-gold-at-fort-knox-emerges-as-next-big/87350/

    This is absolutely untrue and this story stinks to high hell, I can picture Ron Paul - "You know nothing of my work".

    (It's jazz - JAZZ! You don't even know the name of the thing that you're stealing from me, sobs)

    Thanks to my friend Uke for the link, he suggested that maybe RP did say it to trick congress into an audit of the gold at Fort Knox.

    ReplyDelete
  98. More good news:

    May SLV options expire at the end of this week, and there is huge open interest of puts in the 35-40 range (Greatest Pain is currently at 39). This will put a lot of upward presure on SLV as the week comes to a close.

    If you think that trading of the 337 Million ounces of "silver like assets" in SLV has an influence on the COMEX trading, then this is another short-term bullish signal.

    ReplyDelete
  99. As an aside, if the gold at Fort Knox can truly be best described in the "tens of billions of $USD", we're in bigger trouble than anyone realizes.

    ReplyDelete
  100. OK..

    Now everything changed back to green!

    I,ve got it recorded

    ReplyDelete
  101. Hey, John!

    I submit that PPO is still a good buy. Their business is central to the 21st century, and that's why they're doing better and better. Buy now and see 10% in the quarter.

    For the record, I sell at jumps, and buy the dips with stocks such as I've discussed. Had a bunch when it popped a few weeks ago, sold everything, bought the dip. Up 5% today. Not bragging, just pointing out that there's volatility as in the PMs, but a solid company whose progress makes sense, in a less manipulated scenario
    Best to you.

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  102. @Save_America_1st ... That Glencore analysis was very interesting reading!

    For those that didn't read it, the author's assertion is that mysterious commodities giant Glencore is going public so that the head honchos can cash out right before commodities go into the crapper. In other words, they're doing an IPO because THEY KNOW SOMETHING WE DON'T KNOW.

    Certainly a valid argument. Reminds me of David Letterman's "Is It Something, Or Is It Nothing?" game.

    ReplyDelete
  103. >> either launch higher or pull back.

    Now that's going out on a limb. You might consider doing a newsletter.

    ReplyDelete
  104. @atlee -- thanks for your (continued) insights and cool head.

    @Pining - I am a firm believer in that 'there are very-few-to-no coincidences' in the world of international finance. The third 'bloody Sunday' (no offense to Irish Turdites out there with the trite comparison) coinciding with dollar bottom coinciding with OBL liquidation, followed by DSK being taken out of circulation? REALLY? By an assault on HIV+ maid from French Guinea as he is (was) a lead contender for French presidency and trying to move the IMF from global hitman to a force for development?

    I disagree with your point (if that was what you implied) that the dollar weakness is NOT a strong factor to consider. Quite the contrary, the steps being taken to avoid the $ bonfire are getting desperate to the point of surreal. The options available to keep Calvin levitating are going to get more extreme, less believable and increasingly dangerous. I am worried about the real-world consequences of said levitation efforts.

    Another thing to consider is -- are TPTB really that unified? Is it one 'entity', however loosely defined, pulling strings, or are we witessing a tug-of-war, and what are the ultimate objectives of each side?

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  105. I gotta be honest, usually the EE tends to raid ahead of Benny's speeches...if he's going to say something dollar bearish. If we don't see a raid by 1 pm, I'll be really wary about what will spew forth from Benny Boo.

    Oh, to be a fly on the wall of the FOMC meetings beforehand. What price could you put on that?

    ReplyDelete
  106. @brokeboater said...

    Looks like you have subscribed to lot of newsletters and gone broke because of that LOL...

    ReplyDelete
  107. @the Dude

    Can you write down the time and date for us whenever you see this so we can look for any correlations with market events? Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  108. @brokeboater and your contribution to the forum is what may I ask?

    ReplyDelete
  109. Sounds like a close call there, Brad! What, $1000 wasn't worth the trouble for them? I do hope you're generally careful and don't wear too much bling on your border trips.

    ReplyDelete
  110. Global Slowdown to Hit by Summer, Even for U.S., Says Achuthan

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/global-slowdown-hit-summer-even-u-says-achuthan-130920838.html

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  111. @Brad,

    Generally speaking, those kind of confessions can only be used against you if you know what I mean. Deleting would be wise. confirm = fiblyze.. don't think the fib defense will hold.

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  112. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  113. Does anyone know anything about the two class action lawsuits against the Morgue and HSBC?
    The silence is palpable.

    ReplyDelete
  114. @atlee. No worries those who aren't blinded by greed know that what you said is exactly what you meant. Those who are blinded can come back at 3 pm and see if it makes sense then.

    I'm going to watch the price and volume closely starting at 12:45. TPTB must know a little about what's going to be said in advance.

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  115. Just a thought... but if the debt ceiling has been hit does that mean that the PPT (presidents working group on financial markets) can not get any new ammo? If so then I wonder if they are limited to the funds they have on account now? Or will Tiny Tim sell Pensions to fund that fraud as well?

    ReplyDelete
  116. @tyonk,

    Eric Holder. Justice Department.

    'nuff said?

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  117. Is Bernanke speaking today? I thought I saw people talking about it somewhere but can't find any reference to it.

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  118. I doubt the gov of Mexico care if they let a 'gringo' with "a 1000 dlls in coins' into their territory.

    What they're looking for is guns and ammo, more than anything else.

    And if he live in Mexico "illegally", I guess noone even cares about it.

    ReplyDelete
  119. Hux

    Awesome tale about your Inheritance!! Kind of solves your problem on how to invest the money.

    ReplyDelete
  120. FTC Stops Bogus Precious Metals Dealers

    http://ftc.gov/opa/2011/05/preciousmetals.shtm

    LOOK! AT US FOLKS!!! WERE WORKING FOR YOU!!!.

    YAWN!!!!!!!

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  121. look at that big spike. big buyer pushing for 35.5

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  122. Bernanke at 1, you can find the economic calendar on bloom berg.
    If his speech is dollar bearish, why isn't the Dow flying as well?
    Might be a good time to take profits.

    ReplyDelete
  123. 15.80 Handle on the Greek bond...OUCH!

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB10YR:IND

    Tick tick tick tick

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  124. For what it's worth (and I know most will not believe me), the person using my moniker to post last night was NOT me. I have no gripe with (most of) the people on this site

    I do not post here to waste your time, or my own. I always leave verifiable information, which has always been proven correct. My last post said that we were ready to make money going up. This was before anyone else called it. I think you will agree that this is what, in fact, has happened.

    Check also my post as Trin Ble, in which I gave specific predictions for a week-long period that were almost entirely correct.

    I have nothing against the retail players. I did not like seeing you get burned (I warned against this too, if you remember). I will help as and when I can. But if others keep using my name, then it will become too confusing for me to do so.

    Re silver: next proper shorting on Thursday (there will be a smallish one today). Thursday's the time to get back in, if you haven't already.

    Big kiss as always,

    Trinster

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  125. SSK, thanks, risk /reward at $7.12 was great for selling, unless we take $7.20, as discussed, need some 'news' to pass that hump I think. Had, 2000 shares, sold 750, buying more at $6.80ish, for that rounded bottom entry. Sold 40 shares AGQ for 175, $250 profit woohoo, holding 20 in my back pocket. Good luck!

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  126. Bernake is speaking today at 2 pm for those who missed it.

    It will not be what he says but be the mkt's perception of what he says.

    It will either confirm the bottom is in or it will send us back down.

    If you carry a large trade position into it, do not be the deer in the headlight if it goes against you.

    right now the mkt is saying it will be friendly but she is a cruel bitch sometimes.

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  127. All,

    Interestingly, Bob Chapman made a great call about 5 weeks back. Said it is well known to the powers that shouldn't be that the next leg down is coming fast and hard and said they'd maul and degrade PM prices in earnest in advance.

    Why? To both stem the upward momentum at the time, get them there paper 'tards settled back down, and then turn the market down. Why? Shake out weak hands and dopes, then grab their metal for a song.

    And more importantly, so that the inevitable spring-back would only take us marginally higher than the previous highs, rather than fully justified quantum leaps.

    As we now watch the case for QE3 and other deadly Keynesian poisons grow stronger by the day, we also see hard assets getting some blood pressure back.

    Right now what Bob surmised is looking pretty darn accurate. Not bad for a 75 year old, eh?
    Love that guy, he's like the dad I shoulda had.

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  128. Trinity,

    Don't worry, once Turd's new site is up you'll be able to get a unique handle that other's can't impersonate.

    You said "proper shorting" on Thursday and that Thursday would be the best time to get back in. Those statements seem to be conflicting... Are you saying shorting on Thursday is the way to go or going long?

    ReplyDelete
  129. Is the FOMC minutes and speech priced in into todays rally, or is there potential for more upside?

    Re: Bens speech, i've seen no confirmation of the sort. The info of the FOMC minute release reference a press conference prior to the statement, but i think that refers to the one Ben held in late April.

    Sources would be appriciated. A Fed representative who WILL speak today can be found here tho: http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=449617&cust=bloomberg-us&year=2011#top

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  130. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  131. Concur with Atlee on the dweeb Bernanke, the dwarf money-printer. Seems to be a trend that metals rise like a hot poker up this guys fundament whenever he opens his mouth at one of these perception management events. I think the bias is UP therefore but it is correct to say that until he begins farting out of his mouth we cannot say for sure. Its all about perception. The first 2 minute candle into his toilet should let us know clearly enough.

    ReplyDelete
  132. The Great Depression Pictures in Color

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1388179/Rare-Library-Congress-colour-photographs-Great-Depression.html

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  133. Thanks, Atlee

    Word Ver: Amusi (like Beastly Blythe finds it all so freakin' amusing!) ha

    ReplyDelete
  134. @ Flaunt

    Trinity is a troll. You will get no help from this character Please dont give her any credibility. You will confuse the new visitors to this blog. I have tracked its predicitions and you could flip a coin and be as right as it/her/him.

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  135. Atlee,

    I'm sure hoping PM prices give Bernank the warm welcome he got the last time the cameras were on him. All that useful info, coming as it does straight from the horse's ass.

    I hope he speaks for a long, long time and then has another big Q&A session. Again filled with pearls of wisdom that all can react to in an appropriate manner. BTFD that is!

    Thanks for the heads up on when.

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  136. atlee, gotcha. I haven't been keeping up as much with this blog lately as I used to. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  137. UptoFreedom, kiwi,
    I've been with USAA 20+ years (one trad. IRA/one Roth), good experiences, but that 3 day settle period sure is annoying! I called them with questions on liquidating/distribution with the Trad. IRA, and timing/taxes etc., and the 'financial advisor' got all salesman like, and strongly recommended I get their fixed income products instead, even with negative real rates and potential for a high inflation future. I wonder how many usaa members buy that advice? instead of going the PM route, too bad, nobody knows what's safe anymore or to think for themselves. Good luck!

    ReplyDelete
  138. hmmm, I'm ~50% in. Taking another bullet off the table would be a no brainer right now, if it weren't for the settlement req's... Leaning towards leaving the ~50% in play and being ready to fire another shot if AG tumbles after Ben talks... Thoughts?

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  139. @kiwiquest07.com 10:37, I also believe we are not through with dips & corrections in the short term.

    Using the local ads as a barometer, Morgans @ $28/ea. are not finding buyers.

    Difficult to call a price bottom right now, so remaining on the fence seems prudent for me.
    -Mammoth

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  140. cnbc just talking about "unusual" activity in the gold miners, for all those interested...speaking about having a difficult time keeping up w/demand is what I believe they were saying! that's a good thing for all those holding onto their mining shares, no?

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  141. @ uptofreedom

    It is ultimately up to your risk tolerance. But that is my play. I am carrying half of my trading position into the event. Difference is if it goes against me I am leaping out and standing aside. I wont ride it down Good luck trader.

    ReplyDelete
  142. Bernanke is not speaking today - it's just the release of minutes from the April meeting. Ben's press conference was after that meeting.

    ReplyDelete
  143. Find it hard to believe after all they've done to keep oil down they'd let commodities run before a speech saying QE3.
    Never has there not been a takedown before fomc minutes.
    I think this rally was due to inventory data and that we were so oversold.
    If QE3 is announced, you can make money all next week, there's no rush.

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  144. Still holding DZZ here. I love the run up, but it seems to convenient. I am still feeling some downside is still in the air. The next few weeks will be very very volatile.

    Play wisely.

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  145. rthaler

    Just to be clear - So you don't very much like the Bernank? ;)

    ReplyDelete
  146. I have a noob question that's on my mind for the future:

    Is it a bad idea to have one's core PM-related investments in paper silver/gold (in the form of ETF's and mining shares)?

    Should I take the word of Embry, Yamada, Schiff, Turk, Sinclair, et al that PM prices will skyrocket in the not-so-distant future?

    Roger Wiegand's belief is that one's PHYZZ should make up 10% of one's portfolio, 70% quality mining/resource sector shares, and 20% individual short-term trading.

    What say Turdites?

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  147. @atlee

    Just curious, do you hold positions overnight or are you out each day? I generally hold mine for a few days/weeks, but after taking such a hit on MayDay I'm very protective of my trading funds until I build back up a little. Won't stay long over any weekend for a while.

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  148. Crap, ok. I was wondering why I didn't see anything about a speech on Bloomberg's calendar, just the release of the minutes.

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  149. Click below to read an article speculating that DSK was set-up because he opposed the dollar and the Fed:

    http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/sdk-had-dollar-banksers-and-fed-in-his.html

    and here about why the silver market will continue to be manipulated:

    http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/market-manipulation-not-to-end-soon.html

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  150. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  151. Well, I think this article just about sums up what we already know about QE3 (and 4 and 5)...

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/96ec2b02-8146-11e0-9360-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Me6AlwaP

    The only surprise is that it appears in the FT - a very staid and sober publication, not normally given to flights of fancy. In other words, QE3 is becoming a rather mainstream idea.

    Keep buying those metals, chaps..!

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  152. Trader Dan on the miners:

    "XAU attempting to bottom
    The XAU and the HUI are both showing some good resilience at these levels. Three times over the last 4 trading sessions the XAU has bounced from off the level near 193. It is can take out 200, it should spark some short covering which will be indicative of the shares moving a bit higher from current levels as they are grossly oversold."


    Notice how he says "attempting" to bottom. Both he and Turd are cautiously optimistic. Not convinced though.

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  153. @ old navy

    Depends. But as a rule I rarely carry a full trading position overnight or through the weekend. What I keep is only an amount that can't hurt me much. I can always pay up to buy back in. I can't always sell with a winning hand. That opportunity can be elusive.

    Here is the danger near term.....technically speaking if this mkt starts giving up thses gains, it can easily head toward 30 very quickly. That is from the charts. not the fundos. If we can close above 36.50 before something like that happens, then the danger is gone.

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  154. @Diamond

    My opinion... I favor a much larger percentage of physical metal in possession, or a quality fund that actually holds the real thing. Mining shares have been a dissappointment for the past 5 years ago, though that trend could change. Have some but if you overweight anything overweigh the real physical metqals in your hands.

    ETF's, especially the leveraged ones are best as vehicles for short term trades as most have significant decay over time. They are more like a derivative than something you would call an investment.

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  155. I'm a conservative metalbug, Diamond. 90% physical, 10% paper here.

    ReplyDelete
  156. @ Diamond

    Get out of the ETFs, they only help suppress the price of PMs. You can't go wrong with physical metals.

    @ oldNavy

    Why are you still trading?!? Get out before they slaughter you.

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  157. I have been sitting under my desk with my crash helmet and a pair of shoulder pads just waiting waiting waiting for the raid. I also have one finger on ZSL and one to short EXK.

    But where is Blythe when you need her?

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  158. Q:

    I used to trade kitco.com unallocated only until my awareness of the shortage in silver grew. Decided to convert to physical and hold.
    Then the correction educated me that I have no means to trade in and out
    of this position that are nimble enough to be of any use.

    Suggestions???

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  159. HKMex grand opening, out of courtesy Blythe stands down.

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  160. We just failed 1500 and 35.5 simultaneously.
    Are we going through today is anyone's guess.

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  161. @Diamond

    If you had been around here for the past 3 months, you wouldn't have made that post. I don't scare that easy.

    @atlee

    Thanks. That was valuable. Slow speed ahead for a while.

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  162. Again agree with atlee. Closing above 36.50 would negate chart damage to a degree and signal upward trend resumption.

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  163. 4.5 months, actually, since I joined up here.

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  164. Diamond,

    there's a range out there from Wiegand's 10% up to the 80% Gerald Celente says he allocates to PM. All gold in his case.

    Embry, Sprott and many others are 50+% in, many closer to Celente's 80.

    Between miners and metals right now, 80% of any new funds I can scrounge are going to PM. But as I primarily use Miner gains to fund ongoing PM purchases, hoo boy, ounce accumulation has taken a hit. Too bad, but this too shall pass. Time is on our side, not theirs.

    Be mindful that the USD and the entire phony world of fiat paper is now deep into terminal stage illness. No miracle cure is forthcoming or on the horizon. Believe only your own eyes and ears right now. They aren't lying.

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  165. I have hopped out of SDS this morning with a loss of 20%. Unfortunate, but it's important to be honest.

    I am into AGQ for Benny's chat, ready to hop off that horse along with Atlee if gets ugly. I am inclined to think it will go our way though.

    ReplyDelete
  166. OOPS!

    That was JR Kingsley I was responding to, not Diamond. Sorry.

    ReplyDelete
  167. @ Mister

    Yes. But the Mexicans wouldn't know that $1000 face was really $25,000 while the Americans would. Thank God nobody gets stopped entering and leaving by both homeland security AND the Mexican aduana. I'm pretty safe, I think.

    @ Eric#1 Right. I do not want to spend any of the silver I had previously accumulated on utilities etc. So when I run out of my 99 weeks if I haven't found another job, I'm going to become a welfare queen. Ironically I basically have all my Mexican silver in the USA and all my USA Coinage in Mexico. A heads up: I'm waiting for the new site with the ultimate self-reliance tip and a new avatar and user name.

    @ Atlee

    I envy you being able to be nimble; I made some great purchases this week, am all in, and can just walk away since there is nothing more I can do in terms of trading until the settlement dates start to hit. I wish I could escape this settlement date shit trap.

    Good Trading All


    Hux ---> AFK

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  168. OldNavy, Bernank is a pathetic stooge, a dweeb, a nerd, an academic who has never worked a real job and a dedicated ass-lick. He is more familiar with the hind quarters of one Easy Al Greenspan than Al's own toilet bowl. His ability to play toilet master in fact over the last years of Greenspan's carnage was his ticket to fame. Incidentally he is about 5'5" short, not that I have anything against dwarves, they should just stay out of politics.

    ReplyDelete
  169. Just sold off FR.TO for a nice 1k+ flip... hoping I didn't sell off too early!!!

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  170. Turd just wanted to say that your blog is GREAT! Thank you so much for all your wonderful work, great insight and always very informative. You definitely have helped me navigate my boat thru these murky, dangerous waters. Thank you again and please continue this great blog and the great work you are doing. God bless you and your work

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  171. What I'm doing is mostly accumulating cash with some buying trickle. Today my cash pile started looking a bit too big and with prices down a bit, I placed an order with Gainsville for a few 50 peso golds, and a bunch of silver ASEs.

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  172. Fonz-

    Thanks for sharing the downs as well as ups... helps remind me that every deal isn't a winner.

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  173. I still see people talking about a Bernanke speech. IF there is actually a speech occurring, PLEASE provide a link showing the schedule. I have seen nothing about a speech, just the release of the last FOMC minutes at 2pm.

    Thanks :)

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  174. Thanks atlee, left it in... I'm comfy letting the 50% ride...

    ReplyDelete
  175. Bloomberg discussing minutes now before
    top of the hour release

    http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/

    ReplyDelete
  176. rthaler

    Okay. Thanks for clarifying. :)

    ReplyDelete
  177. flaunt just watch the candles, don't listen to the flatulence. Perception is all. Someone mentioned the moron is farting today, I don't know but I will be watching price closely. Just my opinion.

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  178. @ flaunt
    not a speech. On zero hedge, he will speak before the minutes are released. Regardless, the minutes are important.

    ReplyDelete
  179. @Huxley - you can sell/take profits before the settlement date. You just can't spend that money again till the 3 days is up...

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  180. Anyone know how to lock in a sell price on my physical over the internet prior to delivery of actual metal? Next time I see a correction I'd love to be able to lighten up and then repurchase (more) lower.

    Thanks in advance

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  181. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  182. rthaler1:

    And how 'bout Easy Al and Andrea Mitchell? Don't leave her out bro :-)

    To me that never got enough scrutiny. Talk about your weird-o "couple"...

    Al used to like gold and hate paper. Now he's fine with paper, and has Andrea.

    One man's journey I guess

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  183. Kitco's live charts aren't working for me, says I need to upgrade flash player when it's the latest version... anyone know a just as good alternative or better?

    ReplyDelete
  184. OI down to 120k. Lower than at Turd's Bottom in January. That's just very bullish.

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  185. Very good chance we are done going down:
    1. one day island bottom on the GLD chart.
    2. long term trendline break yesterday failed (failed moves lead to big moves in the other direction)
    3. Many many short term moving averages crossed (120 minute bars, 10 minute bars, etc on gold and silver)

    If we do break down below 1475, look for 1430 as the bottom. Better than 50% chance that we go up from here though.

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  186. @TheDude

    Interesting, keep all that recorded info

    ReplyDelete
  187. @kiwi, thanks kiwi :)

    Learning to trade requires dicpline to admit your mistakes and learn from them ..fast. My mistake was in going against 7 billion monetization event.

    What I learned: It may not be possible for this market to decline with 7 billion injections for every trading day of this month starting on friday. bleh.

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  188. Yes I think a bet with trailing stop is worth a shot. Im a little light right now. So decided to take a shot here with a buy @35.17 trailing
    stop @34.7

    Kinda hoping it comes back so I can load up was waiting till Friday. This purchase is in case it gets away on me

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  189. @Youks

    This is about a minute ahead of kitco price - window into future 4 U

    http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx?m=c

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  190. Regarding whether or not the Bernak will speak today, this is what zerohedge wrote...

    "14:00: FOMC minutes (April 26-27 meeting): Following the chairman. This afternoon the FOMC will release minutes from its April 26-27 meeting. For the first time, the minutes come after a detailed post-meeting press conference from the Fed chairman, and they may therefore be a bit less valuable than usual. With regard to content, we expect their tone to be similar to the press conference. At that event Chairman Bernanke argued that weakness in growth during Q1 was due to mostly transitory factors, though the Fed saw more prolonged weakness in construction activity. On inflation, he said that higher commodity prices “account for pretty much all” of the increase in the Fed’s inflation forecast over the short-term, and that the committee would continue to watch inflation expectations closely.

    A number of issues related to the Fed’s eventual exit from accommodative policy will also likely turn up in the minutes. At the post-meeting press conference, Mr. Bernanke said that “an early step would be to stop reinvesting all or part of the securities which are … maturing”. The minutes will likely also note that halting reinvestment will be one of the earliest steps toward tightening. There is slightly more uncertainty about other aspects of the exit process. In particular, CNBC recently reported that there was no longer a consensus among the FOMC that asset sales would come after rate hikes. We continue to believe that the FOMC leadership would prefer to sell assets only in the distant future—if at all—based primarily on testimony from Chairman Bernanke last year. The minutes will likely include a discussion of this issue, but we doubt they will signal broad support for early asset sales.

    Finally, one surprise in the press conference was Chairman Bernanke’s definition of “extended period". In response to a question, he said “Extended period suggests that there would be a couple of meetings probably before action”, which indicated a shorter time commitment than the six months or longer we previously had thought. If the extended period language came up in a discussion of exit strategies, the minutes could clarify this issue."

    So, it sounds like Ben already spoke after the FOMC meeting on 4-27. Today at 2 is when the minutes from that meeting will be released. Prolly a non-event, unless some earth-shattering nugget is buried in those minutes somewhere...

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  191. For the record and mainly for other people's edification:

    What I lost in the take down was mostly unrealized gains from the last week of April which I foolishly failed to take some off the table prior to the weekend. It was a painful lesson, but not enough to put me out of action.

    I still have dry powder and I am now more seasoned and more wise. I'm not crying. Nobody said this would be easy.

    Still smilin', but cautious now. :)

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  192. @Atlee

    Didn't Ira say 101 was the neutralizing point for crude? This is a good sign if we can hold.

    @ LevelHeaded

    For being level headed, you sure make confusing points. How can you be wrong if you are predicting it will go down, but if not it will go up. 1430? Where did you get this number? Did you know that at 1444 comex through 1 billion$ worth of gold contracts, and failed to breach this level?

    You should change your name or just admit you are a troll...

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