Monday, May 2, 2011

Three Quick Charts

Just a quick update as I am seriously strapped for time. I'll try to give you a more comprehensive review of the last 24 hours later today.

First, here's the POSX. It is perilously close to breaking down through 73 on the June (about 72.80 spot).
IF 73 fails, we will see the critical support near 72 begin to get tested. Watch this closely.
Here is gold. A very impressive rally back from last night. As long as it keeps following the trendline, 1575 will eventually fall.
Silver would appear to be at a critical point. It need to hold the area around 46. IF it drops below there and then below 45, it will almost certainly head back down and test last night's lows below 43. IF it can hold 46 and move higher, a move back UP through 47.50 would send it quickly to 48.50 and, from there, a possible retest of the 49.50 area. So, watching 46 this afternoon should be a high priority.

More later. TF

279 comments:

  1. ben.roberts13 said...

    That's exactly right afrum. I have noticed the same thing come the phony unemployment numbers put out by this lying bankster owned farce we call government. They never stop lying even when they are telling the truth. Propaganda is well placed amongst the partial truths as they misplace the nonsense in an improper context to obfuscate, confuse, and distract. Thanks afrum. Give 'em hell. It's a non-stop battle to keep you out of PM's and the price suppressed, so the fiat empire remains viable one more day.

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  2. Turd,

    I think Atlee deserves a yellow hat and a rank of Deputy Turd for his Sterling work and advice today.

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  3. @ Eric#1
    Nice to be part of the club ;)

    I missed the dip over the weekend... watching closely, but either way I'm headed to the coin shop on my lunch hour to see what I can find.

    Thanks Turd for my TF-signed Yellow Hat - greatly appreciated... photo will follow!

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  4. July Silver contact has traded over 150,000 as of 2:04pm

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  5. Now propaganda; bankster front running media gives a morsal of truth to us peons. Silver drops as cost of speculation increases
    Gold turns higher in midday floor trading headlines at: http://www.goldseek.com/
    .............................................................
    Specs may consider margin play but not those wanting delivery of silver. They'll hang; sucking tenaciously as an octopus sucking the vampire squids brains out. Those wanting to take silver delivery at any price, will steam role the bankster fraudsters into every international house of pancakes globally!!

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  6. The first time in 30+ years that silver crossed $46 was Wednesday April 20, it dipped below $46 April 26 and Again May 1 only to break $46 for the third time.

    How many top-callers have been wrong over just the last 12 days?

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  7. i can def say i come to these boards primarily for 2 opinions - turd and atlee

    not to say others don't help; many have tremendously...but for trading, u 2 r gold

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  8. I agree with strange code man (e736e346-32cb-11e0-89fe-000bcdcb5194), Atlee has been a great anchor today.....

    However without the turd, chicken and egg and all that.......

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  9. Anyone think I will be able to get out of my June 55 calls at $1.20?

    I screwed up and went all in and am trying to keep my seed money.

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  10. For me, these incredible volumes indicate the enormous pressure they must put on the PM's to keep them suppressed, which shows how much the prices want to move up because of the fundamental scarcity of silver caused by years of suppression. Silver is as much if not more of a monetary metal than gold, and has been for as long as gold. In my opinion, silver is leading the battle always to reassert its role as real money. Silver is the very heart of this epic struggle to control not just what constitutes money, but control of the planet itself.

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  11. Tons of volatility in the last 20 hours. Would still like to understand why MF and Think or Swim jacked up their margins so far above the CME. I can understand limiting risk, but increases were so large, they must have been scared shitless.

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  12. Yeah good read(s) so far today atlee

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  13. http://buythefuckingdip.com/ That's all I got to say. Laugh at the cartel. I got all my $ where my mouth i$, in phy$ical.

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  14. @ Palin
    sry had distraction. yes still in till the close. may just get bailed out here if we can hold back above. But I am letting it go either way by close was a day trade.

    @ sp
    thanks bro,

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  15. Awesome afrum! And sp, we are going to take a closer look at atlee then if that's true. I'm not a day trader but would consider it with competent coaching from the pros on this blog. Thanks for pointing that out.

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  16. Did anyone comment about the article on ZH about sprott selling 1.6m shares and what that means for the coming days?

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  17. D E, I would venture to say it is because silver dropped a little more than twice the margin requirement. Margin on the YI (mini silver future) was a little under $3k and that $6+ drop was a $6k loss on the future and it was so fast I imagine ToS couldn't close people out fast enough opening them up to significant risk.

    I don't think it is coincidence that they raised the margin to almost exactly the amount silver dropped - I think its more of a coincidence that it happened to be double the current requirement.

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  18. Here is the thing about margin increases, however: short term, they may do some damage but long-term they actually work in our (silver longs) favor... the more they increase margins on silver, the less risky silver is relative to other investments. They are basically removing some of the speculative froth from silver, but they aren't doing this in other areas to a commensurate degree. So ultimately, silver actually becomes a safer investment over the long haul, relative to other investments, every time they increase margins on it. They are trying to knock down price but are actually painting themselves into a corner and we will reap the benefits.

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  19. Ginger

    just stopped in here to say I have been very busy as of late and have had little time to put together the report on dealing with health issues. I was going to get something posted for last weekend but couldn't get enough done. As of today I have completed part 1 and plan to post it tonight around 9pm stamptime for this blog. I'm doing it tonight instead of now so the blog doesn't get torn in different directions. Sorry for the delay.

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  20. Did I mention that I rushed back out to the coin shop yesterday afternoon, and despite a half a monster box of eagles and 300 oz of rounds sitting in the display case Sunday noon, they were mysteriously out of silver inventory to sell at $43.

    Since I know the guy I told him I knew he had it all stashed in the back, and he said yeah, I had to pull it out of the case as soon as it crashed because he was into all that silver at a minimum of $48 an ounce for the rounds and he bought the eagles from a customer saturday at $54.

    I asked him to sell me some anyway and he wouldn't, I didn't blame him, they guy can't go under on shenans like this, but I fully expect this to be the case more and more as we enter this period of extreme volatility. I would not be surprised to see Kitco/Apmex/Lear/Gainesville either halt or delay sales the next time the spot takes a huge nosedive.

    Moral of the story, a dip is great but only if you can complete the purchase.

    PS Also do you notice that the volume on this blog is so insane that nobody even reads posts anymore? I feel so ignored :(

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  21. USDX is down below 73 again. That "Calvin" effect from Osama Bin Laden is fading fast.

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  22. Just thought it might interest a few on the thread...

    http://felixsalmon.tumblr.com/post/5134299372/the-front-page-the-nyt-tore-up-last-night-and-its

    This is a before and after of the NYT front page after OBL news broke. Note the part about Silver. Not to be conspiratorial, but I couldn't help it.

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  23. waffen,

    Ugh. I hate giving advice about what to do with your money, but having watched some SPY puts go to near zero after the Japan earthquake out of my certitude that it was not fully priced in, it's not pretty. Especially if it is all of your capital.

    If you hang on, and we test the lows again, it won't be pretty.

    You could rely on a repeat of April's gigantic gains to bail you out. It might happen. You must have been down by more than 50% at the start of the day, now maybe only 40%? Maybe that is a gift opportunity to reduce some of your risk. Keep a few if you feel like rolling the dice to break even.

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  24. Recent thoughts on gold and silver from Richard Russell.

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell050211.html

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  25. @jon bong jovi

    that is a classic name my friend; somewhere there is a cover band in jersey...better trademark it fast ;)

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  26. Seems like some of the sellers aren't participating! First Majestic on line price hasn't budged since Friday - they are holding $49.70 - unfortunatly! I'd really like a few more of their 1 kg beauties!

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  27. Take it with a grain of salt , but thought it was worth posting
    Oil spiked in the 9AM hour, when this report appeared;

    (Reuters) - Iranian state television ran a report Monday saying Israeli military aircraft were massing at a U.S. air base in Iraq for a strike on Iran.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/02/us-iran-israel-report-idUSTRE7413TC20110502

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  28. VampRegen said...

    Thanks for the response Vamp. As for the timing, though, didn't MF raise the margin on Friday night after the Globex close? I didn't see ToS move until Sunday night after all hell had broken loose.

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  29. Thought for the day: How much money would you have made trading tech stocks in April rather than silver/gold miners?

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  30. Second thought of the day: Burial in the ocean first, and than a DNA test.... Priceless.

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  31. Can one say that the price of silver is more suppressed than that of gold, and in what way run the interests of suppressing both medals in tandem? Gold is suppressed by HSBC if I'm right.

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  32. APMEX DOWN to 8600 Silver Eagles of 2011! This is down from 24000 as of yesterday afternoon 2 hours after the EE raid.

    I posted this at www.silverstackers.com, how we are going to get a new stage of silver scarcity soon beyond 2008. These eagles are already delayed till May 13 and where is Apmex going to get new inventory? They are already are exhausting the delayed Mints supplies, so their next way is to get it from us.

    Expect increase in buy back prices which in turns increases premiums. Hardly anyone is going to sell their physical and the little that do will be swept up by buyers.

    This is a new stage of silver shortage and that parabolic phase I keep hearing about...what is it...stage 3? Welcome to the start of stage 3 this month.

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  33. From Jeff "there is no shortage" Christian, a.k.a. Mr 100:1, of CPM Group

    http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110502TW_CPM.html

    "... CPM said prices for both gold and silver had been expected to rise sharply during May, with anticipation that gold could hit $1,550 an ounce before falling back toward $1,360 by the end of June. Silver was projected in CPM's April Precious metals Advisory to possibly spike to $42 during April and May before plunging back to $28 by the end of June. ..."

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  34. Speaking strictly for myself, I concluded some time ago that day trading miners in the hopes of capturing value from the hourly fluctuations of gold and silver was a form of madness.

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  35. "Thought for the day: How much money would you have made trading tech stocks in April rather than silver/gold miners?"

    Yes, I think because the miners have been performing badly for several months now, people aren't aware how much worse the situation became in April.

    The miners made all-time highs on April 8, and since then there has been an unprecedented disconnect with the price of gold/silver. (Unprecedented, because the last time you saw such a discrepancy, it was short-lived and took place in March 2009 when the entire stock market hit rock bottom.)

    Graphs here: http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2011/05/invisible-hand.html

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  36. xaritas,

    I am in full agreement with you. I have given up on miners for anything for the time being.

    And I feel somewhat to blame for the late night beat down. I broke one of my cardinal rules and held some calls on GLD and SLV over the weekend. This is the first time I ever did that, and now I am reminded why I had the rule in place to begin with. Dooh!

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  37. After many days daily MACD trying to cross.

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  38. Yeah, the only thing I did worse than not selling my SLW, EXK and GPL off on Friday was keeping my newly acquired AGQ.

    Selling is a great form of liberation people rarely exercise.

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  39. Pablo
    That's really interesting stuff about the coin shop. Kind of like what was going on for some people last night. A dip is nice, but if events conspire to keep you from being able to buy it, then the EE says "Mission Accomplished".

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  40. May 16

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/may-16-remains-date-of-debt-limit-hit-geithner-2011-05-02-151140

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  41. @pablo hard to read all the posts when threads often reach 400 posts now, and one even broke 1000

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  42. Anyone here been trading metals for more than a year or so? I still have nightmares of May 2006. The entire metals complex was beaten to a pulp, and didn't recover until around December. Could this be a repeat? 5% beat down in one day is not something to take lightly. If gold can't hold $1530 and silver drops below $42, we have some SERIOUS problems on our hands. I don't like what I am seeing at all. Sell in may and go away might be something to consider.

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  43. We're toast. Heading for a retest. Go flat, short or hold your physical tight.

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  44. Dear Obsolete,

    your scenario "If gold can't hold $1530; Silver $42"

    Stop trading in May and STACK ALL SUMMER!!!

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  45. Forget the miners {except the juniors & explorers}. The only people playing them are the funds and old timers who are still stuck in the 1980s. GLD & SLV is where the action is now for traders. They are best at tracking the price swings in metals. The miners crater on corrections, yet barely budge at all when the price of the related metal goes up, so yes, it is a complete misallowcation of capital.Investors hold physical.

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  46. Since 2008, I've always said that if I reached a certain low point in my portfolio, I would just get out. That point is fast approaching. My own private Max pain.

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  47. Is China going to be open tonight, or not till tomorrow night? We need some buyers. =/

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  48. Huxley/Xty/DPH

    The mailman just brought me a present!!

    It starts with "50" and ends with "Peso".

    This is a seriously large chunk of gold. Awesome.

    Spot was around 1505 when I bought it. :D

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  49. I thought silver would touch 44.80, but now I think it will go lower

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  50. Eric#1,

    Where do you keep your treasure map?

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  51. @Pable: Yes, funny how a lot of online shops are right on top of things when the prices spike, but when they dip the site is not taking orders. I went on last night and tried to buy from my usual vendor, and they had up a notice saying they were delaying all sales until 9:30 EDT Monday...

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  52. @sumo,

    From what I have seen over the course of this bull market is that those who "think it will go lower" are right only about 30% of the time.

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  53. here we go: Mayor Bloomberg saying that a suspicous vehicle in Times Square contained an "amateurish" explosive device....

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  54. Anyone remember Turd’s daytime stock advice last Friday? Maybe Blythe was reading and wanted to stick it to the few turds who didn’t exit the trade by Sunday? She already has been watching the miners we invest in, bringing them down, tarnishing the reputation of the Turd, and I think this was another shot at TURD! Yes, I am directly connecting Turd’s advice to the downtrend in the miners and now silver, with flawless logic, might I add. Turd really controls this thing, he just doesn’t know it yet

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  55. what is atlee getting his charts? i want to follow along and schwab can't do it. please help.

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  56. Oh well. Silver just isn't fun anymore.

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  57. With so much damage done to the technicals today, overbought indicators ought to calm down.

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  58. Now we know why APMEX said they would have scarce silver inventories to sell for the next several weeks. Who does their charts?

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  59. @ lalla

    forexpros.com
    I can't do what I was doing today everyday. Many here probably would prefer I dont anyway. Also my last day trade was a loser that I overstayed in. But play with these charts. They may help you.

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  60. Pailin,

    yeah this is brutal.

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  61. Looking for gold/silver 1540/43

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  62. We hit $40, and I'll be dumping a lot of dollars at APMEX. I just hope the inventory holds up.

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  63. @Shill
    We hit 40, we either bounce or 38 may be our new friend.

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  64. You won't be buying if they're not selling.

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  65. dead-cat-bounce in the POSX...a DCB POSX

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  66. Anyone with info on when the Asian Markets are going to open back up?

    I expect that London opens early Tuesday Morning.

    Thinking about going by the coin shop to BTFD.

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  67. @SSK:

    My thoughts exactly. I'm 100% out of paper as of this morning with 10% less than I could have salvaged on Friday but still up nicely. Have to decide how much of it goes into more physical 2 or 3 weeks from now and how much goes back into paper on or after May 21.

    Noticed your previous post about planting various berries. Do check out Raintree Nursery for great selection of European currants, gooseberries, and elderberries. Unlike a lot of places accepting orders only for fall shipment, their stock is dug, in cold storage, and ready to ship for spring planting.

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  68. Tokyo forex opens in about 4 hrs, Sydney forex in about 1 hr

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  69. Anyone buying into this low close?

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  70. @atlee

    Hi can you share which indicators you prefer to use for trading in Gold/Silver for swing and positional trading ?

    Maybe you could reply after market hours so as not to disturb your trading.

    If anyone else among the experienced traders would like to help me with this, I would be most grateful

    thanks

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  71. Something is terribly wrong with the silver market. This is more than EE. There are no buyers anymore.

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  72. Is this the end of the bull in silver this year?

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  73. @Paul Breed

    Good luck getting anything at your coin shop. All that stuff is behind the counter already, believe me. If you can get some more power to you. The coin shops are such a revolving door everything goes out the same day it came in. So anything in there today was purchased Friday,Saturday, or Sunday, at 48+ / 1550+. They're not going to let it go at a loss.

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  74. @dd

    btw how did u get that info...? i don't see it on drudge yet or any other site but i searched and sure enough u are right

    i guess i will be taking cabs for the next few weeks, time square and grand central can live without me!

    i have eased out of most options trades today and into agq and dgl (my "safe" havens). this is the biggest problem with options. if there is any significant movement against u, the theta starts to kill u. granted these were june expiration. i am still long but about 2/3s of what i was yesterday.

    i don't like the end of the day action. but i also don't think that the fight is close to over just yet for this week. at this point, there has been NO fundamental change.

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  75. Guys don't forget the asian markets are closed and so is london !!!!

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  76. @Bro. D
    There are buyers, but a lot of the up move in April was short covering, not buyers. And lots of weird holiday action too in both directions. Just the way it works sometimes. We'll see where things go once all the markets are back open in the next few days. Either these prices will be viewed as discounts or the interest may have indeed shifted elsewhere. Probably not to the dollar :)

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  77. overbought parabolic indicators should calm down..aah, globex beatdown..welcome back. if you're buying physical these price drops really don't matter..

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  78. Also, I was sitting here rolling my sovreigns around and all of a sudden they felt about 15% lighter in weight....

    oh wait no, it's still the same number of ounces :)

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  79. @rishiM

    hey man if u do some searches through all of the comments over the last week u should be able to gather all the data very quickly, just ctrl-F for atlee

    he may help again, but the guy has been answering left and right all day....moving average, bollinger band, slow stochastic

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  80. Can you believe these bastards? Always in the Globex do they ply their trade. I hate the fawking Globex. In this day and age, all markets should be global and based on the internet 24/7. All traders being able to trade in any market at any time. Always the holidays, this summer will be no different. The weakest part of the year and they will take full advantage of it to knock the hell out of the price. Looks like they are preparing for the main event this June, which traditionally is the lowest point in the year for the PMs prices. I hope I am totally wrong and the BOS return with a vengeance and run it up so high that we don't have the typical seasonal summer doldrums this year.

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  81. If you're planning to make a large purchase of physical I would not go all in today. Remember, Asia opens back up tonight and London opens up tomorrow morning. EE needs to keep the price low to make sure those guys get margin calls and sell on the open.

    I personally went 25% in last night, I'm going 25% right now, and saving the other 50% for what I suspect will be a steep margin call based selloff around the HK and then London opens.

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  82. Thinking about nibbling around $43 also

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  83. Pallin, you're probably right, but this action is the most bizarre I've seen in this market. Something's not right.

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  84. hope everyone "survived" today

    interested to see what the turd thinks about today's price action...they did some technical damage to the chart

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  85. A 10% smack down IN ONE DAY ought to tell you someting. This is what a bubble looks like when it pops. Silver went parabolic, and this is what happens EVERY TIME there is such a rise, REGARDLESS whatever it is. Anybody who tells you that this is just a normal correction is either lying to you, or doesn't know WTF they are talking about. Right now, silver is in true free-fall, and NOBODY knows where it will stop.

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  86. Chin Music,
    No rush!! ..I just thank you for what you are doing. ..But please.. at your convenience only!

    .....Along the same lines of "if a tree falls in the forest and noone is around to see it does it make a sound?" ...."if the metals are caught in a downward spiral and noone pulls up their account to look at the balance until metals go back up ...has it really lost any value?"

    :D

    Not looking. It's the 'avoidance' tactic. :D .......Otherwise I'd just be madder than I already am at hateful manipulator people. >:[

    Standing FIRM.

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  87. Now that they have everyone doubting the silver market should be a wild market this week maybe this month.

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  88. Loaded up on some June options when Ag dipped to 43.75. Now gonna sit back and take a break. Hmmm maybe I should visit APMEX too! Everything is on sale! Weeeeeeee!!!

    Still in shell shock from 1/3 my trading acct getting wiped out last night :(

    Show no fear friends! Nothing has changed. Things are just getting more whacky as far as variance/volatility imo.

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  89. @dd

    You said:

    We're toast. Heading for a retest. Go flat, short or hold your physical tight.

    But yesterday you said:

    Smells of desperation. Smart money will buy this fucking dip.

    &

    you have to buy into the fear, its the only way.

    &

    Dollar heading to fresh lows. That's about all we need to know for now. They got their 12% plus correction. BTFD.

    So which is it?

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  90. Look, I don't day trade. Strictly buy and hold. But still, I am so pissed off at this criminal activity that never seems to end. I don't know the exact nature their power and how they have survived financially, but the Comex and JP Morgan should have been busted long ago. But the criminals run the show and there are no police, no courts, to put them in jail. They run amok like a bunch of kids in a candy store with the owner absent. Absolutely no accountability in this totally criminal system.

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  91. This is a fight with the EE.

    EE wants control of silver. That means a battle with longs. Read Denver Dave:

    http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2011/05/pure-criminality.html

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  92. I still hold some EXK May calls that will expire worthless I am sure, as I see silver trending lower from here. I don't see it coming back in any meaningful way until September. Should had listened to that little voice in my head that said SELL last week.

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  93. I dont know why guys dont follow a simple step.

    1. Be fearful when others greedy.

    I am a silent spectator, was seeing so much bullish optimism past week. I thought a beatdown is on the way. Here it is.

    Nothing goes straight up. Putting money into market around 49 or 50 is insane. Remember, always the first rule is: PRESERVE your capital.

    I am a silver bull too. but putting money around 50? I am patiently waiting for a correction. Hope an opportunity something like Jan and Feb will present now.

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  94. @ atlee

    I appreciate your posts today. I know you can't do this all the time, but posting the sites you use is a tremendous help to us novice investors who rely on Kitco for price information.

    Thanks

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  95. You guys are pathetic. Screaming, the "technicals are broken" is the "silver bull over" and "no one is left to buy".

    Do I need to slap you in the head.. all of you?

    Wake the hell up. Did uncle timmy pay off all of the debt? No technicals have been broken.. they're only being tested. Stop watching your 1 minute chart, back off to a daily chart, and draw a damn trend line for pete's sake.

    This screaming and emotion is enough to make any seasoned trader lose his mind. You all better get your emotions in check right now or you'll lose it all..

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  96. @Obsolete Man,

    This may look like a "bubble" popping in terms of price action. Perhaps that is what we are SUPPOSED to think.

    There really is NO other substantiating evidence that this is a bubble.

    There was no HUGE speculative buying.

    There was not a dearth of sellers.

    There is STILL a HUGE uncovered short position.

    And perhaps MOST IMPORTANTLY, there is a developing physical shortage.

    Beware the facade and look at the TRUE picture, which is still unchanged.

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  97. Barely hanging on to $44 at this point.

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  98. it pains me to say it but...stellaconcepts sold at the right time.

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  99. Well said Brad!!

    This action has been about shoring up the the bond market and getting the PO$X up - nothing more!

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  100. support? what support? Turd, what's the best way to hedge against all this vol.?

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  101. Sydney and Tokyo forex markets (I don't mean futures markets) are open in a few hours, according to OANDA.

    The smackdown could continue then. Be very careful.

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  102. No nothing goes straight up,, but in this criminal phony manipulated market it goes straight down in ten minutes. Its not natural. Its not right !!! And they always wait until the market is at its weakest point in the frigging Globex's criminal playground.

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  103. @Spencer

    I would not doubt that someone at JPM reads this blog, in fact there have been several posters from time to time claiming to be Blythe and I did save a wheelbarrow of cash one day on account of a "blythe" post here. So I would not put it past them to try to stick it to the Turd, him being a thorn in their side and all.

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  104. ben, CFTC is part of the PPT.

    CFTC will not protect us, despite what Ted Butler thinks. Denver Dave makes this point too.

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  105. Chris; I didn't mean silver was in a true bubble in the same way say, mortages were several years ago, not a final bubble, just a temporary bubble. i don't know about you, but I have seen tis before, and this will be a long and painful summer for metal longs.

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  106. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  107. My silver dealer right now is out of A LOT of silver products. He had been out of 1000oz bars continuously since December, but now 500 oz bars and a lot of smaller bars are unavailable as well.

    Regarding price action, this looks a lot like January to me so far. Maybe we'll wind up with a similar 20% correction, meaning around 40$, in 2 weeks or so. All I can personally do at this point is guess though.

    What I AM looking forward to is today's open interest numbers.. boy, that's gotta be a lot of lost contracts today. And probably a lot of shorts covered.

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  108. Ew... That is a BIG FUGLY red candle on the daily chart for silver.

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  109. I think from here on its going to be about GYRATION and volatility. I don't think support and resistance is going to chart it real well though I could be wrong. I think actually that buying 'breakdowns' in increments is the way to go for me. It will take more capital and margin but these boys want to play big now. This is a WAR. Their primary tool is FEAR. When I am most afraid is when I will be buying.

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  110. http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/img/stages_bubble.png if this is correct, we just passed the "return to normal" stage and we're all about to get wiped out.

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  111. Comex just raised silver margins again - now to $16,200.

    Even I am finding it hard to explain Comex's actions on this. These daily increases are getting absurd.

    http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/clearing/files/Chadv11-156.pdf

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  112. Hmmm, am I crazy for thinking a May straddle is the way to ride Ag in the near term. Long term, I'm still a PM believer, the dollar is toast, but the never ending margin hikes and media control give TPTB nearly unlimited leverage over the prices in the near term.

    Trading thoughts?

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  113. Call me crazy but I am planning on Silver at $140 and gold over $2200 by the end of 2012.

    I am and will remain confident. You cant fight the EE unless you keep your eyes focused on fundamentals, not today's price.

    Santa said there'd be days like this. He called for "wild 10% swings" as this market prepares to go parabolic.

    I pity those who are shaken loose by their scare tactics.

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  114. This is a fight. EE's best weapon is to change the rules at the most strategic time.

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  115. Grow up everyone! We are playing in a market where crimes are not prosecuted, so players are brazen. You have a choice : live with it or leave.

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  116. BEN - when they do that its the signal to buy. They put everything on immediate SALE. They know most traders have read all the books and know where all the lines are. Then they 'violate' those lines. People get scared and they take sharp losses hoping to get back in lower only to be shakin out. I don't know. These waterfall sells for as long as I have been watching are painted and designed for fear. They create excellent covering points for their shorts and they confuse and befuddle traditional traders. In no other Market have I ever seen consistent daily waterfall prints at specific hours. Nowhere else.

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  117. Silver will not see $49 again for MANY months. As a matter of fact, I see it back to $35 or so by June. You guys who want to do a "Leroy Jenkins" on silver at these levels, it was good to know you!

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  118. APMEX BANKS WITH JP MORGAN, GOT IT?

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  119. This is a frickin War and people had better understand that in my opinion. This is not fun and games. Its about chart painting, goal post shifting and price rigging. Period.

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  120. Brad,

    Yes, please beat us about the head. Where is the buying? I am hoping our Asian friends will step up.

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  121. So they increase the Silver margin again..bastards.

    Will they be lowering the margin when the price drops?

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  122. what do you guys think of this xag/usd trading idea, i thought of this idea in light of increasing volatility these last few days:

    1. when getting RCI / volume green light, long and short at the same time. (see Pailins post about this from the last thread) The short should be half the lot size as the long. The aim here is to hold the long position as long as it takes to get a profit.

    2. IF SILVER GOES DOWN: you can make money from the short position. After a few dollars sell the short and again buy a long and short position again(the short position being half the lot as the long)

    3. IF SILVER GOES UP: if silver goes up you sell the long position and short position at same time and make a profit.

    what do you think ?

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  123. ObsolteMan: where will the physical silver come from to satisfy physical buyers at $35?

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  124. @mc2560,

    I think you are looking at that graph incorrectly.

    Let me ask you a question: if you stopped 100 random people on the street, how many would even know the price of gold or silver, much less have a significant amount of their worth invested in it?

    I seriously doubt you would get more than 2 or 3, if that.

    We have not reached any level of meaningul PUBLIC participation.

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  125. I'm hoping for an FUBM on the gold market going into the Globex close. I want more fiat for my imminent physical silver purchase.

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  126. Its just that some of you here seem to think this is all normal stuff and should happen based upon the natural flow of cycles and technicals. I for one, will not forget that this is a totally manipulated criminally run market. And, while there are natural ups and downs, run-ups and retracements, what we have is neither of those which we would find in free markets. I know the CFTC is part of this criminal system.

    Again, these bastards raise the margin limits? Unreal, this is so in your face blatant crime its disgusting and sickening. All this does is give me even more resolve and confidence that we are right and will ultimately win. They are so obviously desperate. Does anyone know the exact this margin increase announcement was made?

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  127. @MC2560

    That looks scarily identical to our current 6 month and 1 year silver charts...

    I really hope you're wrong. If that happens, we'll have lost everything and my wife will kill me (like, literally kill me for the insurance).

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  128. I await the Turd's thoughts before I make portfolio altering decisions. ..Yes, I can think for myself but I'm not giving in to manipulators unless Turd sees something in the fundos or trend that has changed.

    Standing FIRM. ........(Broke..but firm) :D

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  129. the man who drew that graph told me silver was in a bubble, and I chose to ignore it. I have nobody but myself to blame.

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  130. @ObsoleteMan

    How are you playing the short side?

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  131. MARGIN HIKE AGAIN... AINT FUNNY ANYMORE...
    If our Asian friends have to sell because of margin calls overnight it will be FUGLY... Am out.

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  132. Titus, I don't think there will be an FUBM until tonight when the Chinese start buying again. Boy, they sure do know when and how to place their knockdown bets.

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  133. @Brian

    They apparently want to force the small guys to sell and keep them out and let the big guys buy from them on the cheap.

    I finally went short silver today at $45.50 after giving up some of my gains although I'm maintaining a long position in gold as a hedge.

    The lack of interest in buying was orchestrated by the EE. By hammering silver on Friday and then again today and running a negative media campaign, they took the momentum away and people will now just sit on their hands and stay out until they begin to see it moving up again.

    My gut tells me that the EE will continue to hammer away until we get a capitulation. In the meantime, I'll begin shopping for physical metals while they're on sale.

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  134. SILVER IS NOT IN A BUBBLE YOU NEOPHYTE !!!

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  135. BRAD, R Man J, TurdleGG, rthaler:

    You're alright, and you're all right. Thanks!

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  136. g owen,

    I have thirty some berry plants dug into a temporary trench just waiting for the rain to stop. Which may be never. Or about the same time the miners reverse. I bought gooseberries this year. Already have currants both red and black. No elderberries. I buy them for Indiana Berries who sell them bare root.

    I'm having about as much luck with the weather and the farming as I've had with the market of late. But I do have some one week old chicks that are a joy to watch.

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  137. @mc2560,

    Can you please explain how the recent events don't satisfy the conditions of a "bear trap".

    Atlee famously corrects people for using the term bull trap incorrectly.

    Bear trap = "A false signal that the rising trend of a stock or index has reversed when it has not."

    Is this not a classic example??

    How has the rising trend been violated??

    Is this not a "false signal"?

    I am more than happy to listen to a cogent explanation; baseless fear mongering really has no purpose though.

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  138. TheObsoleteMan - please give some reasons why "this summer will be painful for longs", giving no reasons is not helpful for me or anyone and kinda just makes me think you're a plant. Are you putting your investment in the dollar ?

    Now my reason that silver will go up is this:
    1. Fed printing money QE

    I'm looking into all ways i can to short the US dollar, silver / gold is just one of those ways.

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  139. me too ginger, new poster, lurker since january. i will not be shaken even when stirred!! i also believe the miner hedge cannot last too much longer, and i do not see an out and out crash around the corner. i will not be scared out.
    jacks

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  140. Sumo; There will be a sea of silver on the market by then. contrary to what you believe, there will not be as many buyers as you would think. few have the balls to buy an asset that is going lower everyday. Buyers wait. Seller don't wait, they sell as their holdings go underwater. Look at all the poor saps who bought at between $45-$50 PLUS PREMIUM. They sell out of capital preservation, or at least that is what they believe. I have'nt bought any physical since around $25+. No way I was going to buy above $40. The sell off will be good for us. We will be able to reload at a more reasonable price, and the stupid specs have been flushed out, all these things are good in the long run.

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  141. Another CME margin hike, 12%, Unreal.

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  142. stevy: yes, I think a long/short strategy in xag is now necessary, for capital preservation.

    If the EE is going to hammer the price like this, we may as well make some money from it.

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  143. Cris, I guess we will find out who is right soon enough, I'm not selling yet.

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  144. @stevy,

    I like your idea of "taking both sides"

    I proposed that a few days back, as I also beleive volatility is our best friend here when trading options.

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  145. Yukon was right about converting his silver to gold and got slammed on this board. Now the silver bulls are getting toasted.

    Bought into ZSL (Ultrashort silver) earlier today @ $14.45. Silver is going back down to $35, then I will sell. Whatever the fundamentals are, this market is too small and can be easily shaken out at any moment. Today is a turning point and its a free fall from here, and that's the truth whether you like it or not!

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  146. In case anyone was wondering what beat down the price at about 11:15.

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  147. I have physical at $29 and below. I won't sell that any time this decade.

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  148. Jacks,
    If you and I are right.... it will pay off for us.

    If we are wrong. ...well, I've got plenty of beans and rice and don't mind sharing!

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  149. Bought some ZSL this morning, felt foolish about it 10 minutes later; I cashed in at the close, for a decent one day profit and no longer feel foolish.

    The fundamentals haven't changed, the long term trends are the same; my year end target for silver is still $65oz.

    Play the volatility if you can while we wait for the next leg up to begin. If not, hunker down and wait out the storm.

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  150. I said it myself earlier, atlee is a great asset to this board and I appreciate his comments today and everyday. But, especially you newbies, bear in mind atlee is a day trader (AKA: knife juggler) don't presume you can make money doing what he does unless you practice a long time first, IMO.

    I am down a LOT from last week. But my time horizon is still the first week of June. I hope there will still be an intervening rally, but if not, I will hold out until June if necessary. 75% of my calls do not expire until JULY. I am disappointed in the last 24 hours, but I can sleep. I know where this train is headed. :)

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  151. @ObsoleteMan

    So is it safe to assume you're not playing the short side then?

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  152. Chris,

    Who will do the buying against a limitless amount of money? As many have pointed out, the only power we have is to buy physical silver. We must force a short squeeze in physical. its our only hope. I am disapointed in myself in that I just went into the paper market to try to make more fiat to buy physical. I am really hoping we get a turn around here soon.

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  153. OldNavy,
    I'm of the same mind. ..I read atlee but (here is a shocker)...he is way above my pay grade. I would never..at least not at this point...try to do what he does.

    It's trading days like this that can really separate the men from the boys. .....Today, I believe I can report.... I became a man.
    :D

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  154. Stevy, i am NO plant, I have been trading PMs THIS TIME AROUND since 2004. i was witness to the 1979-1981 moonshot and crash. What we have today is NOTHING like the way it was back then, not even close. I say this {long & painful summer for longs} from experience. Metals can and do sell off in May and not return until around Labor Day weekend. There are usually few reasons for metals to go up during the summer. More reasons for them to sell off. This is known as SEASONAL WEAKNESS.

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  155. Turd, Friends, this is getting out of control. I hope none of you is getting burnt too much.
    I am super suspicious of what is going to happen overnight and tomorrow morning.
    I was relieved / cheered up by today's fast recovery... However a 10% smack down and another margin hike makes it UNREAL as Angie said.
    I guess many of us here made a lot of money trading silver, but need to admit the EE is showing its strength... Difficult to beat it for now.
    I hope like all of you that the trend will resume as fundos are here, however for now it is not BTFD anymore but CTFSS (Catch the falling Samurai Sword).

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  156. Unbelievably hard to sit on my hands today but that overnight action was a lot to digest.

    atlee thanks for all that you've shared. Distracting I'm sure. Really clearly presented.

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  157. Ginger

    I said you had Balls of Steel!!!

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  158. Que paso a la plata ?

    My buy this morning is not looking so good.

    I'm not used to this much volitility. Guess I'll

    have to cut my holding time on AGQ :(

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  159. BTW, how many more margin hikes before there is NO margin? (Then we can stop worrying about them.) ;)

    IMHO, this article still is on target:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/266844-the-empire-strikes-back-against-the-silver-price-rebellion

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  160. Eric,
    Nah.... ..I'm just insane. lol.
    :]

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  161. Not sure why it would be painful to the longs, we just accumulate more. The $ is going to **** It's just paper. Read history, it's happening again, just a transfer of financial power, leading to global power to the people who hold gold, silver and productive assets.

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  162. ...besides I'd prefer silver over steel ;)

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  163. Closed out all my silver longs. I hate losses but the volatility is just too great right now. I hope everyone else either trapped long or hanging on for a bounce to the upside beats those fuckers (EE). Blatant manipulation with margin hikes and technical damage to the chart means I'm out for now. Just wish i got in sooner.

    The USDX is still trending down, QE continues. Inflation is rampant and real interest rates are massively negative. This remains bullish for precious metals and I will continue to trade leveraged in gold.

    Inca

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  164. Gold and silver is on sale, go get you some.

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  165. jesse on today's action:

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/05/one-cannot-help-but-notice-that-bear.html

    "One cannot help but notice that the bear raids in the precious metals sector are coming in thin trading and are notable for their lighter volumes as compared to buying. They are also coordinated across a variety of related products including mining stocks etc. which are likely used to hedge losses on the futures contracts...."

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  166. RLP: No, I am not short silver, or any other commodity. If any thing, I am long, as I am not selling my core physical position {average cost per oz: $17.}

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  167. Margins going up again.

    http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/clearing/files/Chadv11-156.pdf

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  168. Why has everyone seemed to forget that the Chinese recently said they were going to get rid of like a trllions $.

    Don't you all beleive that the Chinese, and the Indians for that matter, are going to CONTINUE to buy hand over fist, ESP now that the price of gold and silver is ON SALE??

    Really, why is everyone going to pieces.

    We KNEW there would be volatility.

    The price of silver is STILL $43 for pete's sake!

    Let me repeat:

    $43 PER OZ.

    Let's at the very least see what happens tonight and the next few days once the markets are truy open before we make any big pronouncements.

    Beware of beleiving the bs the Cartel wants you to believe.

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  169. Ginger: Is that legal in NC?? ;)

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  170. ...and where DO they get the parts from?

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  171. Last night was not normal. Today is not normal. With London and Asia closed for the communist labor day, anything can be expected. Do not make your investment judgements on days like this. We had an Easter smashdown. It's all the same crap and games the EE plays during very weak times. The rest of the weeks should be up until Thursday before the phony labor statistics are vomited out by the Ministry of Propaganda.

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  172. TheObsoleteMan is closest to what is really going on and you should listen to what he's saying. You guys have seriously underestimated the amount of speculation in the commodity space, but with silver especially. I warned about everyone investing in unison and how easy it is to reap substantial profits by the big boys in casting nets at the large schools of investor fishes in the waters.

    I answered someone on my blog earlier with this and I thought I'd post it here:

    I've said this multiple times, but people have ignored the dramatic levels of rampant speculation in silver. It doesn't matter that your Gramma, your barber, and your kids soccer coach isn't buying silver if every single person who *is* is doing it by leveraged plays. Everyone's waiting for there to be that Max Keiser "every person buys an ounce of silver moment" when months ago we had already entered bizarro derivatives world where "1 out of 100 people are buying leveraged silver at 100 to 1 ratio."

    So what does this mean? Velocity up - Velocity down. It only takes a few players cashing out some of their YTD holdings and doing a May exit to really put a beat down on silver. I mentioned for the past month or more that I was winding down and other folks would be as well.

    I still stick by my stance that now is not the time to invest in silver. If you're out of the game then you're out. If you're in then decide if you're staying or going. Right now is not a compelling buy in point in my opinion. I'm watching and waiting for a possible late May/early June point to possibly jump back in.

    Silver just looks way too weak here and I don't think it's going to hold it's 20D MA. My buy in starts at a 50D MA touch with accelerated buying all the way into a possible 200D MA touch, but I don't think we'll get anywhere near there.

    You have to remember though that I already hold physical silver. If you hold it then continue to hold it or exchange some for AU or maybe some PD or PT if you want to.

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  173. Absolutely Chris,, right on brother !!!

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  174. OldNavy,
    LOL. Not sure.. but IT IS against the law to sing off key here! (True.. it's a law) :|

    Having to muster all my strength (manly strength!) ...to not be awash in the fear. ...I just refuse to let the EE live rent free in my head!

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  175. There is lots of emotion here....I'm full of emotion myself, as like most of you I took a bloody beating today as well (really hurts since my silver holdings are paper and not physical - getting there slowly though)

    If I look at the EE engineered attack, I can't help but marvel the timing and strategy. I certainly got what I deserved, for being too cocky and complacent - it's my own fault.

    I'm not sure whether we will be getting the buying support from China, as most folks are predicting or hoping here. EE has done a good job of engineering this fear induced slide, by popping it during a period of light volume and advantageous playground. Once the fear is planted and ramified to a certain point, margin call/profit-taking and such comes into the picture big time and it becomes a freight train that is hard to stop.

    Rather than wild predictions and/or wishful hopes of Silver swinging back to $50 in no time, I would rather this board focues on how to profit from this volatality.

    I would welcome Turn and other experiences traders/member to pen few ideas, such as option straddles so that we can not only effectively hedge our long positions but also make some dough in the mean time...

    What say you?

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  176. @Waffen:
    In your boat. Have a nice stash of physical, bout 200more oz at GC last night--but I too waded into the paper market hoping to convert to physical. Lost 1/2 a monster box today.

    Anyone know where I can read about theta for July and January contracts?

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  177. We got on the train late here in the Pablo household but hey, what's there to worry about? Before finding this blog and the Turd, I would have been browning my shorts at something like this while my wife would have been out racking up the credits cards without a care in the world.

    Just look at us now! This is all thanks to Turd and 4 months of preparations...

    1) We're averaged into our physical at about $35 and $1450 respectively

    2) We have cash reserves for "emergency" purposes

    3) We have paid off and cut up over half of our credit cards with the profits we made trading

    4) We've refinanced the house at a low rate (should have rented, I admit, you never really own your own house - just ask the tax assessors office)

    5) We have food stored, rice, oats, salt, sugar, freeze dried meals, canned foods, and food preparation equipment (kelly kettle, charcoal, propane, etc)

    6) We have water and water purification equipment (berkly filter, bottled water)

    7) We have first aid supplies and equipment

    8) We have wool blankets, extra (cheap walmart) clothes, TP, soap, deoderant

    9) We keep the gas tanks full, have a few portable cans, and a get out of dodge contingency plan

    The only thing we haven't done yet is to buy guns, and to get out of the damn city and find self-sustainable property by running water.

    So, why worry? If it all ends tomorrow my wife and two kids and myself will be better off than most of the rest of those around us.

    I love you, Turd Ferguson!

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  178. @Yukon

    I liked that post. Gives me something worth thinking about. Thanks.

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  179. Yukon,

    You have been making the case that there is massive speculative buying for a while.

    Where is your evidence??

    It is NOT in the COT.

    Where is it??

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  180. I think the new trend is to get the fuck out of the way of the EE.

    Just a thought.

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  181. Yukon

    Did not mean to imply your posts are not always worth thinking about, I find that they are. :)

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  182. Tuesday May 3 is a holiday in Japan:

    Constitution Day(kenpo kinenbi)

    http://www.forexabode.com/bank-holiday-list

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  183. You know, you guys are right. I've been trading for a while, but when you tell your significant other that you just lost 40% of your portfolio, and their answer is "Don't worry so much about it honey", you know you've got it made.

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  184. Agreed with SSK.
    What can be very dangerous is when all the machines behind algos and CTA hedge fund which where long Silver like crazy on the way up will spot a trend reversal and start shorting the Silver futures...

    As many of you rightly pointed out, fundamentals are still here, go for physical, paper is burning.

    P.S. Her Majesty charges 20% VAT on Silver in the UK, whereas gold is tax free...

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  185. "HB said...
    Has anyone on this blog taken delivery of PM at any one of GM's three vaults?
    I'm going to HK next month to see if my silver is in their ViaMat vault."

    Good. But I hope anyone has not more than a small part of his/her holdings in such a remote storage service. It doesn't matter if US, UK, or HK, if shit hits the fan, like war or a serious financial catastrophe, do you honestly believe that they're gonna give the slightest f*** about citizen's property rights? You're PMs will be gone from this vault just like that. They're gonna march in there with the military and take it out and there is nothing you can do about it. And because it's concentrated holdings, A LOT of PMs in one place, it's incredibly easy for them to do so. They know where it is and they know how to take it.. you couldn't play more into their hands, except just send it to them personally..

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  186. Well the morning looked good but by the end of the day PM slaughtered. Suppose as good Americans we sould celebrate POSX going up. Right. Rumors that Isreal is in Iraq staging for airstrikes. Would explain alleged OBL death if zion went after Iran this week.

    Got popcorn?

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  187. @SSK,

    "Get out of the way of the EE"

    Isn't this like a bully coming onto the ballfield to play against the little ones when the players his own size are gone??

    Let's at least hold judgement until we see what happens in NORMAL market conditions -- which we have NOT had in several days now.

    Seriously, it is HARD not to get emotional when you "lose" a lot of fiat on paper. But look at the landscape: margin hikes and beatdowns in thinly traded markets are a FAR CRY from the power the Cartel used to wield.

    Used to be they could just smack the market down a couple of percent and it wouldn't come up for days or weeks.

    Now they have to go to almost 10% haircuts and the market bounces back in a day.

    They are covering their shorts like CRAZY. They are doing so masterfully, but wouldn't you expect that. Just remember they are covering ON RISING PRICES.

    We should all keep repeating to ourselves: THERE IS NO PHYSICAL.

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  188. Silver *did* go parabolic, and some of you don't understand that it was heavily overbought at that point. It still is, in fact. Technical indicators are a self-fulfilling prophecy these days, because of all the computer trading. Cry "Manipulation!" all you want, but this rapid correction isn't surprising, and a further drop down to the high 30s for silver wouldn't be a shock, either. Fundamentals frequently take a back seat to technicals in the near- to mid-term

    I'm kicking myself for not dumping some silver last week, as my instinct was telling me to do. But I was greedy, and selling physical is a pain in the ass. I was holding out for a slightly better GSR. And as for gold, its chart looks a hell of a lot stronger than silver's does right now. Believe what you want, but days like today illustrate why gold is money, and silver just isn't.

    In the long run, it's both silver and gold to the moon, and days like today will be hardly remembered. But in the short run, silver is a beautiful, alluring, cruel backstabbing temptress, and she'll shock and awe you six ways 'til Tuesday.

    I'm looking forward to the day when I'm comfortably "all-in" in gold instead. I've just about had my fill of risk.

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  189. Honestly guys. If you take just one thing out of all this take out that you can't just rely on one viewpoint. Life just isn't that simple. There have been a lot of folks through here that have tried to bring things like this up to you to think about and some of them were blasted and didn't come back.

    Stop going just to the pro silver websites. Go to some websites that are against it. Stretch your mind. You don't have to agree with it, but you'll learn a different side and a different possibility for the things you see in the markets.

    That all said, I still have my physical silver. Things are going to go up over time so if you're physical then just yawn and go back to sleep. We'll wake you up at $75/oz then you can smile and go back to sleep and we'll wake you up at $150/oz years from now.

    If you're into paper then I don't really have much to say to you that hasn't been said. Many great life lessons are going to be learned the hard way with trading paper. I've always said that you can do it, but have your physical first.

    In a sense, you should be quite pleased with what is happening. Silver has to go down to go up. Remember that. It has to go down to go up.

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  190. This comment has been removed by the author.

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