Friday, May 20, 2011

Points For Friday

A couple of things before we get to the charts.

A) Keep in mind that today is option expiration for equities and ETFs. Always lots of weird price action on these days. Don't get all freaked out if your favorite miner has some strange price movements.

B) Just to address this "ending of QE" issue again. By some estimates, the U.S. Federal Reserve and their primary dealers (the PDs are the agents from which they buy back recently issued bonds via POMO) make up as much as 70% of the bidders in the overall treasury market. If they were to now exit this market, even in part, interest rates will rise dramatically as prices of bonds will fall due to lack of demand. The latest $600B QE/POMO schedule lasted 6 months. What was the U.S. federal deficit over those same six months? A little more than $600B. Even Stevie freaking Wonder can see the direct connection.
If the Fed halts QE:
1) Rates skyrocket
2) U.S. economic activity grinds to a halt
3) Tax revenues plummet
4) Even more deficit spending is then required
5) Rates go even higher
6) Interest on national debt component becomes an even larger % of federal budget
7) Even more deficit spending is required
8) Rates go higher still
9) Tax revenues fall further
10) The Great Keynesian Ponzi finally ends
DO NOT believe this silly notion that QE is about economic growth. QE is about funding the deficits of the U.S. government. Every other effect is ancillary. The only thing that would allow the Fed to end QE would be a dramatic reduction in the annual federal deficit. This would lead to a deficit spending level that the "market" in treasuries could absorb. Until then, the presses will run. Period.

C) I'm very intrigued by the current plot to defame and discredit Meredith Whitney. First of all, she's kind of hot, in a slightly-chubby, sorority-girl kind of way so I can't help but take her side. But, as you know, Meredith is one of just a handful of "analysts" who correctly saw the entire CDO/CDS fiasco coming over the horizon in 2008. To this day, she still correctly points out that many large, TBTF banks would be, in fact, insolvent were in not for the changes to the FASB rules in 2009. Because of this, she must be considered a very sharp thorn in the side of the Fed/TBTF/MSM/Govt complex. They've been waiting to pounce on any weakness or any slip-up so that they can begin their efforts to discredit her and her ongoing message. Read this:
http://washpost.bloomberg.com/story?docId=1376-LLGTH31A1I4H01-
2NSVPIJ5TTTS6432JHE7ESMMTH
Now I don't know if we're going to have "50 sizable defaults" over the next 7 months but I do know that there are still 7 months on the clock. (And I know a little something about having critics jump all over your predictions well before the clock has expired.)
While I was working out yesterday afternoon, I also saw this:
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000023035
Imagine that. "Dumb Money" on CNBS rolls out some chick (got to be a woman because Meredith is a woman. Can't let it seem like the boys are ganging up on her.) muni manager to claim that all is well in the muni market. Really? No! A muni manager who runs a muni fund for a living is claiming that the muni market is great! I'm stunned.  All must really be well. Unbelievable.
The point is: Meredith Whitney doesn't fit the narrative that the banks are all great (they're even increasing dividends!), government spending levels are just fine and that QE can end at any time. She is an enemy of MOPE and SPIN and, therefore, must be discredited/destroyed.

Onto the charts. First of all, the daily euro chart should look vaguely familiar to most of you. DO NOT make the sophomoric mistake of confusing euro weakness with dollar strength. They currencies are simply inverses of each other. In this case, prospects for the dollar are not improving. The euro had simply run up too far, too fast and into resistance near 1.50. The resulting correction has created the illusion of a dollar rally. It is nothing more complicated than that.

And here are 30-minute charts of gold and silver which conveniently take us back to the lows of Tuesday which convinced me that the beatdown was finally over and behind us. Both metals are now consolidating above their lows and looking for an opportunity to trade higher. I would suspect that you'll see that move either later today or Monday. Silver will make a run toward next resistance around 36.50 and gold will jump toward 1515.

OK, that's it for now.
Have a great day and a relaxing weekend. Can Animal Kingdom take The Preakness?
TF

327 comments:

  1. Another sterling analysis, Turd. Looking forward to seeing your predictions come true.

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  2. I think Ray Charles would see it too ;)

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  3. With Nehro sitting out, I don't know why not.

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  4. I'm watching for a chance to buy some paper gold in the 1480's

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  5. No pressure, but what's the timeline on the new site, Turdmister?

    Just curious cause I try to read the comments section everyday but by the time there's 200 of them, and there's more than one post per day, it's really tedious. I'm seeing more and more people copy and post previous comments to the new threads in effect to carry the over.

    And you should know better than watching CNBS poison at the gym. It makes you weaker by the second. ;)

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  6. The Feds MUST print money.... look how many markets ($,PM,commodities) they are trying to "manage for the good of the people"!

    PMs will eventually win, but it may take a while and even the entire system coming down!

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  7. Putting the hammer down on the GDX. Again. Cracked 55. Let's see how long it stays in the 54's. In the meantime, my NGD hemorrhages.

    Once again, going short was the right thing to do. Not that I did it, but it was the way to make money into this morning.

    Turd sees a bottom in the metals. But the miners, once again, see no bottom.

    So, we are pretty much exactly in the same situation we were on April 1 when SLW screamed out to us that miners were going lower. If only I had listened and not fought it.

    Lots of new miner lows popping up on the screen.

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  8. We've already heard from atlee that he is hitting the links (lucky dog) and will be in cash over the weekend- How about the rest of the Turdites? Are you going to be holding long through the weekend, or moving to cash?

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  9. New stuff from Richard Russell at KWN

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/20_Richard_Russell_-_Silver_Shorts_Liable_to_Get_Trampled.html

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  10. crude.. ouchhhh.... might buy some!

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  11. Life is much more fun talking about the Preakness! Oh, for the days of Secratariet! However for now, I would love to see a triple crown winner again, and for that to happen,,,,,, GO ANIMAL KINGDOM.

    Additionally, look forward to Monday after expiry. A long tem holder of physical. Inn time we will be vindicated.

    Thanks Turd, for your sane wisdom. The powers that be know their game is up, and the last resort they have to the SPIN on the cable news.

    GLTA

    Greg

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  12. Wow, what a raid on silver just now......

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  13. SSK: At this point, it sure looks like the HUI is going to 500.

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  14. Turd, great post as usual. i totally agree with the Whitney thoughts. they want to vilify her. the bloomberg article was a hit piece versus a serious counter. munis are in a huge hole due to pension funding and excessive spending over the past 10 years. Whitney's basic premise is solid; Federal Govt is in the toilet and doesnt have money to bail out the States, the States subsequently are running huge deficits that cant be made up without killing the tax base, and the local governments dont have a strong State government to help them with their problems. classic domino fall. timing and magnitude of her prediction is unknown, but her core thoughts are as solid as physical silver.

    QE has propped up the economy for 2+ years, and will continue to try to do so with QE3+, the problem will not get better as you have clearly outlined. Its a slow moving train wreck and people just dont want to listen to logical thought.

    Enjoy the weekend all.
    KPD

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  15. Greetings Turdites from the other side of the Pond - we follow your words of wisdom avidly.

    You might like these analyses of various salient aspects of the Great Commodities Rout:

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/05/19/573011/another-commodities-crash-layer-the-100bn-intervention/

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/05/17/570846/the-asia-connection-to-the-commodity-rout/

    All power to the Turd's elbow !

    Nick Drew

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  16. Turd, re Meredith Whitney:

    A very important Media person I met early in my career told me a key to understanding to what was really going on at any given time is to observe who the mainstream media vilifies.

    Over the past 20 years that advice has proven right time and again. Not saying it's new to you or any of Town's savvy residents. Just reinforcing it with the example of the recent treatment of MW.

    Also, see Dan Norcini's post. He's making the point that HF's may driven into bonds in order to take up any slack in fed purchases. Do you have an opinion on that please?

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  17. Please don't get all worked up over "raids" on every down move.
    The euro is suddenly getting crushed and the damn algos are taking everything down with it.

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  18. On the immediate term the greek / spanish newsflow wont be good, so POSX positive and metal pressure.

    Todays a day to watch the game rather than play it I fear.

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  19. i can feel my bottom being probed.....

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  20. Turd, you should say a day before what will happen the next day (option expiration), otherwise its no help

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  21. NGD's brushed with 9 bucks countless times the last couple weeks. Let's see if it holds. I've got a fuck you monster buy at 9.01.

    Trader Dans's XAU support level at 193 being tested again at 195. Oh the games they play.

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  22. Discrediting Whitney reminds me of Brooksley Born, when she warned against derivatives. She was wiped away pretty soon after that.
    Watch this documentary about Born:

    http://video.pbs.org/video/1302794657/

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  23. Yuck guys and girls. This is not looking good. Be careful here. Not ready to throw in the towel (we're holding the bottom of the bollinger band on the 120min gold chart and yesterdays low). Keep in mind I'm a futures trader and a $50 gold move is $5,000 per contract move and $1 silver move is $5,000.

    If I was buying physical I maybe would buy half here and half next week higher or lower, who cares.

    If we close anywhere around here (or of coarse lower) the weekly is going to look bad and imply lower prices next week.

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  24. srsly, you can't figure that out yourself?
    Do I have to remind you to go to the bathroom, too?

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  25. srsly, it was mentioned on this blog yesterday numerous times that option expiration is today.

    Also Turd is not your Financial advisor. You can and should check expiration dates yourself.

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  26. Has Meredith learned the legend about the Anaconda?

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  27. Added more SLV calls, Its like Wal-mart out there :)

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  28. TF, now you're doing exactly what you said you wouldn't in a previous comment. ;)

    On topic: Any reason for this sudden crash in the €? Besides the usual ofc. :P

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  29. Turd,

    Unfortunately, I agree. HUI looks headed to 500. It took out the March trough and now is headed for the Feb 1st low right there at 500.

    I don't know if everyone quite appreciates what an additional loss of 20 points on the HUI will do to the miners, but it won't be pretty.

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  30. srsly, get an opex calendar from the crimex w/s.

    Don't be a jerk. Seriously.

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  31. Gotta say Whitney is tasty in my book too !
    Savvy chubby Middle aged but still tasty,
    similar to Pippa Malmgren who also wears tons of gold.

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  32. Bought some 50 SLV Jan 2012 calls also just now(not sure who posted that).

    Paid 0.84

    If the bottom is in that's a great price. If it's not I'll buy some more at 0.65. What's 0.20 on 7 month calls?

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  33. Jeez, what a tard that LevelHeaded guy is.

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  34. srsly hasn't contributed anything to this forum. another typical troll. how the hell anyone who is trading with $ could not know the options calendar is beyond me.

    thk god thr are guys like u out there to be taked, otherwise the markets would be efficient

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  35. Ah comon Markus, LevelHeaded's post (this time) was not snarky at all and contributes to the discourse.

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  36. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-warns-spanish-bonds-eur-poised-technical-breakdown

    As if Spain did not have enough to worry about with now daily protests gripping the main cities (the live webcam for the daily festivities in Madrid can be found here), next according to Goldman's John Noyce not only are Spanish bonds on the verge of a technical breakdown (and yields about to breakout), but due to the very high correlation between the Bund-Spain spread and the inverse EUR, it likely means that should the market start pricing in the Spanish domino, then the EUR, already lagging the move, is about to take out 1.40 rapidly. And with Spanish spreads flying as is over concerns what the Spanish elections on Sunday could mean for the country and the region, we can see something snap in advance of the weekend any minute.

    From Goldman

    ---

    Explanation of why Euro is tanking right now.

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  37. @Jimmy
    Take your pick:
    Spain riots increasing.
    Rioting spills over into Italy
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/05/spains-icelandic-revolt-protests-spread.html
    Norway stops payments for Greece bailout.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/norway-stops-aid-payments-greece

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  38. That was me Level...good deal for sure.

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  39. "I don't know if everyone quite appreciates what an additional loss of 20 points on the HUI will do to the miners, but it won't be pretty."

    Unless you want opportunities to buy more miners at great prices for a buy & hold strategy! ..Then it's not such a bad thing (to me at least).

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  40. Actually, Options expirations is on May 25th.

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sR44EsP3LbU/TV2QS0D4SNI/AAAAAAAAP-4/Ul_JgHzZ1DQ/s1600/2011optioncalendar.PNG

    So... Next week will be tough. Option expirations + Euro getting crush due to Greece/Norway news.

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  41. My two cents worth on how and why more QE is a forgone conclusion.

    http://theeveningchronicle.blogspot.com/2011/05/tyranny-at-treasury-department-or-how-i.html

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  42. today is equity option expiration day

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  43. @SSK

    Re NGD
    over 6,000 June 9 calls traded in one day earlier in the week. Then similiar amount on the june 8's. Don't know what it means. Maybe large short buying to cover? I think if you can buy @ or just under 9 that is a steal. I hate seeing these miner positions go down and if I knew it was going to happen like this I would wait and just buy the bottom. But NGD is a great company and long term is a double from here. Good luck

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  44. @shill
    yeah thanks for the heads up. I usually don't trade options just futures. Sure seems worth a flyer.

    The delta on it is 0.16 but will decrease if the price moves away from the strike. If we do get 30 on silver in the next week to 10 days what do you think they will price at 0.40-0.50? Do you know how to price them?

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  45. Would have bought 34,1, but that was already gone when I went to open my trading program. Well, nevermind, if it moves sideways some more I'll buy more next week - 34, 35, 36, whatever, is still plenty cheap.

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  46. @scott88

    Saw that piece buddy. I dunno mate. First the Euro sucks. Then the dollar sucks, then back to the euro once again.

    Yet we know the dollar is just as bad if not worse, so how long can this leg of dollar up / euro down possibly go?

    The comment that mentioned the WWF and McMahon cracked me up.

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  47. Great perspective on Euro vs. Dollar valuations, Turd. We are in a race to the bottom to see which paper can be devalued faster, and the pace is getting harder to manage by the CBs. In the end, bullish for PMs in both currencies, but volatility is going to be tough to take; options may be much better than futures for speculation with risk management.

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  48. "MetalMike said...
    Ah comon Markus, LevelHeaded's post (this time) was not snarky at all and contributes to the discourse."

    Neh, tbh he really has nothing to add. Big mouth though. Some guys really love to fall for that.

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  49. What are people's thoughts that there will be a pause between QE's? Would we see a summer of deflation in commodities and a rise of the POSX short term?

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  50. Atlee,

    I saw those June 9 calls too. Gotta be bullish. If only I could say the same for the HUI/XAU. I'm underwater but holding.

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  51. heavy POMO every day... today through next Thursday:
    May 20 ~ 6-8 Billion
    May 23 ~ 6-8 Billion
    May 24 ~ 5-7 Billion
    May 25 ~ 4-6 Billion
    May 26 ~ 5-7 Billion

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  52. Andrew, i always mix them up. POMO, is that injecting or extracting money in the market?

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  53. Just rung up the credit card. :( Hope it works out for us.

    I can afford losing but it hurts none the less.

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  54. Anyway, I'm in at around an average of 35$ with some leverage. Downside (where I'm at 0 again for all of 2011) is at 25.

    Lol, I remember right now when I bought the dip from 36,5 to 34. I chatted with Xty about it. Well, sad to see a dip back to these levels.. after all I'm talking about the price action from March.

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  55. Also looking for WTI close today. Oil sold off, but also June contract rolling into July contract adds to the mania. Can't see SHTF in Euroland AND more whack-a-mole in MENA keeping prices down. With WTI though, price falls as contracts expire as there is no shortage yet. New month gets ride back up I believe, and trade.

    Hope I'm right, or lucky, or both.

    GLTA

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  56. shackleford/animal kingdom/mucho macho man exacta box and you will be able to buy more physical monday!!!!

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  57. @level

    the price all depends on the volatility

    at this vol, 30 slv next week would cause the calls to drop in value by ~45 cents or so each, so ~50% or so drop

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  58. TZA baby. You want to short the mother effing crap out of the small cap world. With 3 times leverage. TZA is your baby.

    I'm already in and out. Almost forgot what it felt like to make money on a trade!

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  59. at this vol, 30 slv next week would cause the calls to drop in value by ~45 cents or so each, so ~50% or so drop
    -------------

    Which is no big deal considering the long...worst case sell and eat the loss...Again :)

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  60. KPD said:

    QE has propped up the economy for 2+ years, and will continue to try to do so with QE3+


    QE has been beneficial to the stock market and the TBTF banks--how much QE has anyone here seen except the benefit of being in PM?

    When Geithner borrows from Pensions to pay other expenses to avoid having to issue new debt since we are already over the debt ceiling and Congress avoids tacking the problem head on, and we do not have enough buyers of treasuries anyway, thats all you need to know about QE3 et al

    Its coming--we just do not know when its going to be announced and how it will be spun.

    The Problem with TA (and I have charts all over my screens) is not that it does not work in manipulation, its just less reliable.

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  61. First time posing here.

    Great blog! With great posters.

    Can't believe Mr. Turd is doing this for free and to the benefit of all. Thank you.

    I have been reading the blog and comments for the last 3 weeks or so.

    Amazing to me that people like 'srsly'are as ungrateful as they are.
    Remind me of people who contribute nothing, but are always complaining.

    This is a road map. Use at your own discretion and make your own decisions.

    As Mr. Turd said yesterday: Take it or leave it!

    Anyhow, I will go back to reading and I will keep clicking on the sponsors ads.

    I have also sent this site to a lot of people so the viewership can be increased.

    Grasshopper.

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  62. yea it is actually not a bad long term hold. i am seeing 63% vol near month 42% vol jan 2012, actually not bad for a calendar spread (but i have promised myself not to make any gld or slv trade too complicated!)...damn it now i have to start looking at calendars, didn't realize what a difference there is. u can sell about 6-7 months against it, by the time we hit end of this year, the calls will be free, unless 2012 vol collapses...

    btw yesterday was the first day i have seen non-investor friends post on facebook "should have bot linkedin stock". that puts us at about 1998ish or so, don't know exact time but we are in last phase of this recent bull in equities now. yea that's right i'm calling it based on facebook posts...

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  63. @boricuadigm-shift said...
    Actually, Options expirations is on May 25th.

    Just to correct you.

    Today is stock/ETF optioins expiration.

    May 25th is commodities Futures/option expiration.

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  64. Shill,
    Are you Borkafatty from the old 'Housing Panic' days?

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  65. @SSK, boy I hear that! Made TWO positive trades today. Woo hoo!!

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  66. Ok,
    I have to admit I had to look up the definition of
    "ancillary".

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  67. Gold is hanging in there. Can't say the same for the miners. But gold is shaking off the broader market and the rest of the commodity market's weakness.

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  68. Current rally looks like it might hit the 10 min BB around 35.30. After that, I see either flat for another base building or drop, drop, drop.

    If only I had kept some powder dry, my chart reading might actually have made me some money today.

    Lesson for the future I guess.

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  69. The Fed holds what, close to $2T in USTs? What's the monthly coupon value on that? They can just reinvest coupon value into more USTs and it would not be called QE. I think James Rickards mentioned something to this effect.

    Then the balance needed for QE3 would be lower, and they could spin it as a reduced QE, with further reductions in the future.

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  70. Turd... I certainly agree that there is no way to fund the deficit for long without QE3... but don't you think that they could scrape up the funds from somewhere to do without it for a month or two? That way they can say they are quitting and commodities get smashed, the stock market gets smashed and they have a lot political headroom when they announce it in say August.

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  71. Gold found some hot air, but silver is having trouble following suit.

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  72. Shill,
    Are you Borkafatty from the old 'Housing Panic' days?

    --------------

    No shit...ha ha ha yes that is me. :)

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  73. Eur/Usd does not account for this move... feel like this is buying or something non-algorithm related.

    Greece defaulting and spain in civil war should mean GOLD = SAFEHAVEN. Stupid it fluctuates with these algorithms.

    Computers do run our lives... we need a revolution in this country... and in Europe too...

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  74. Looks like a FUBM just took place....
    Very positive, this is how silver was reacting before the latest 'correction'

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  75. Here's an idea of how they could pause for a few months between QE's and still fund the deficit:

    Let all the big banks know that you are going to pause QE so that they can all make massive leveraged bets against stocks and commodities ahead of time. Then pause QE for the next several bond issuances... with instructions for the banks to put the profits from their shorts into buying treasuries. It won't last forever but the assuming the banks can make enough from their shorts to buy the bonds you get: bond auctions succeeding, banks making $, commodities taking a huge hit and people begging for QE3 to stop the falling stock market.

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  76. Silver behaving, rather mis-behaving relative to Gold. Giddy-up u f..k

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  77. meredith is married to a honking former pro wrestler.

    now wat if, well u noe, kinda meredith and blythe together, that has potential, possibly a bit dangerous too, which just improves matters.

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  78. Anyone else notice option premiums coming down (at least in SLV)?

    July 35 calls had an intra-day low today of $1.68 to match the Ag low of $34.22

    I picked the same call options up on the 17th for $1.60 and at roughly Ag of $33.20

    3 days on a july contract should not equate to an estimated loss of roughly .20 in the premium. Still have some nervous hands selling at the first hint of a raid it would appear.

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  79. Until they raise the debt limit there's no new treasuries on the market. They are raiding federal pension funds to pay the bills in the mean time. I don't know how long that can last.

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  80. Gold at 1512. That's the 200MA on the 120minute chart. could see some resistence there. Also, TF called out 1515 this morning.

    Hope this mornings "raid" was the final shakeout we needed to get going. It certainly alarmed me but that was apparently the wrong response. TF kept his cool.

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  81. wow...the XAU chart is bulldozing!

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  82. I don't know but the way things look is that Gold is telegraphing to the silver shorts to start liquidating.

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  83. From Le Metropole (great site) about an audacious comment (talking Fed’s book) heard on CNBC yesterday morning…

    Robert McTeer, former president of the Dallas Fed, said that “gold and silver were in a bubble and that if he had any money he would short them”.

    A Le Metro contributor remarked: “Really? Let's think about that for a second. Can you think of any other asset class that a person associated with the Fed would say sell? Would they ever say sell stocks? Would they ever say sell the dollar?”

    ~

    My take: This simple but telling, brazen, smug and manipulative Fedskie comment has me outraged and seeing red. Also caused me to seeing a glimpse into the possible scenarios in the not-to-distant future of things we will witness as the end of the Keynesian Experiment blows up. The Ponzi methodology has worked well for the elite PTB's, but it is coming to an end very, very soon.

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  84. BUY!!!!!! Its now or never on miners....turning green on a strong dollar day with market blood red.....this is HUGE>>>>>

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  85. McTeer’s comment is but a desperate and weak attempt to turn public sentiment against pm investing. We all know that. But these are just words - at this point. Soft tyranny. But as TPTB lose more control, their words of MOPE and paper market manipulation will no longer be able to turn the tide of physical metals holders.

    At that point, the EE/PTB will drop all pretense and behind-the-curtain trickery. Instead of words and manipulation they will launch a campaign of control and acquisition. They will unleash the Dogs of Wall Street and allow them any and all manner of manipulation and theft. The EE/PTB will send their disinformation media minions and whores into full, red-alert action mode to ‘soften the beach head’ of public sentiment.

    We will see metals investors demonized as “hoarders” and “rich, greedy speculators” that are ruining the economy and threatening national security. The EE/PTB political minions will then oblige and ‘storm the beach’ by creating laws to nationalize mines, commodities and oil producers.

    They will create new taxes, fines, user fees and penalties to grab every nickel they can. They will “borrow” (seize) pensions and 401k accounts. They will destroy health care by replacing it with a government run system. They will alter the genetics of food so that the Monsanto’s and ConAgra’s of the world will control all food. They will spray us from above with carcinogens that are harmful to all living things.

    Have you learned of their Chemtrails? Control is key. Weak, sick and impoverished people are easier to control. But power and control are not enough. The Evil Empire will (attempt to) confiscate physical gold and silver.

    Many ‘have not’ and ‘want more’ sheeple will join the EE out of stupidity, entitlement for something they did not earn or greed, malice and envy. Some will join out of sheer desperation. They will lead the public chant against the unpatriotic “hoarders and speculators”. They will spy on neighbors, friends and family for their 30 pieces of silver.

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  86. @ Turd
    I think Meredith Whitney is hot but you gotta admit Erin Burnett is a real fox.

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  87. But Turd...what about tomorrow, its the 21st of May and the rapture is coming...how are we going to communicate with you? Kidding...I'm shorting the hell out of the rapture...hell, I might even throw a rapture party! I will charge one ounce of silver to get in the door and to get a giant red cup for the keg.

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  88. XAU bouncing off 195 is yet another confirmation of support. Maybe we won't see 500 HUI after all.

    Atlee, bought more NGD.

    Now if only my RVM kicked into gear. Come on Scott, buy some more for us.

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  89. Sounds like science fiction, but these things are already occurring in various stages. The tipping point of a ‘no-holds-barred’, outright war against the middle class and freedom will be the price point of either gold, silver and oil… or all three.

    We can only guess what that spot or barrel price might be, but when oil gushes past $250, gold hits $2000 and silver breaks through $100 I suspect we will have our tipping point. Will a complete POSX or US Bond meltdown precede that or follow the Elite’s War On Middle Class (EWMC)?

    Whatever that number, the gold/silver war has only just begun. Attacks will escalate way beyond words, way beyond MOPE, shorting miners and propping up Bonds, Dollars and the stock markets.

    On one side, TPTB with their hedge fund and political lackies on the front lines. On the other side, everyone on earth that holds or wants to hold gold, silver commodities and other real assets and dump fiat.

    TPTB are powerful and devious, but the world is a very big place and not at all concerned with what the US President or the US Fed wants. The Dollar is but a poker game that will end however the BRIC’s want. They will, very soon IMO, call Bennie’s bluff. In our own small way, we are doing the same by standing for delivery. Join the cause, not for the BRIC’s but for freedom from tyrrany. Don’t Tread on Me. Take Delivery. Call Bennie’s Bluff (CBB).

    At that tipping point, we will have our life raft and the opportunity to put into action all that we have learned and prepared for at the end of the dubious Keynesian Ponzi scheme. In the meantime…

    Honestly, I didn’t mean to go where this rant has taken me. It just flowed out. Maybe I’ve overreached. I hope so, and I’ll pray that my fears about the future scenarios I’ve described are unfounded and will not come to pass. But while I hope for the best I’ll also prepare for the worst as best I can. And I’ll remember…

    Continue preparations. Stay focused. Be physically and spiritually strong. Keep your head down. Be discerning about everything. Exit paper when your targets or obligations are met. Buy the dips. Call Bennie’s Bluff!

    ReplyDelete
  90. pforth, i think that is a good theory. I am starting to wonder if the commodity correction that has occured is a glimpse into the future before another big rally. i.e. another 10-15% drop in commodities/stocks over summer=another qe though they won't call it a qe

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  91. Kliguy is on the money. Time to buy is NOW!

    ReplyDelete
  92. Hello, Can anyone please help me out here? I want to add more physical to my stack. But I'm a little bit confused, which gold coin is better, between the gold eagle and buffalo? I know buffalo has higher gold content and it costs more. But how come the buy-back price (to sell back to the dealer) is less than the eagle if you look at kitco.com.

    Also, where is the best place to buy the gold coin?

    Thanks a lot!!!

    ReplyDelete
  93. 10 min chart shows more room to the rally. 35.40 now. Come on baby, to the moon!

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  94. Looking for some feedback/advice. Ultimately, it's my decision and I will need to do my own DD.

    My situation is this:

    I have about $360K in a roll over IRA. I went almost all cash a few weeks ago. Sitting on $325K cash.

    As others have mentioned, I am also concerned that they (TPTB) will tap into private pensions and 401(K)'s, as is being done with gov't employees pensions, now that the debt ceiling has been breached.

    I currently hold physical gold and silver. Not a lot....about $25K.
    I also trade: SLV, PSLV and ZSL.

    I believe in the commodities play, and I hold:
    RJA, JO,BAL and DBA etf's.
    These are long term holdings.

    I am up pretty significantly in all of these areas, as I started to buy about 18 months ago.

    The question is what's the best approach to deploy the $325K in cash in my Rollover IRA.

    I don't want to necessarily withdraw, as I would be looking at the 10% early withdrawal penalty and taxes.

    Any input would be appreciated.

    Grasshopper

    ReplyDelete
  95. There, I said it. Not that we haven't all said it or thought it before... but sometimes ya gotta just get it out there. Sorry for the rant.

    Tried to post yesterday, then last night then this morning but have been waylaid by the techno-challenged Blogger stuff. Maybe they saw that post coming?

    Anyway, intended to give a thanks to Old Navy for props and to...

    Ruby – let not your heart be troubled. When the usual useful idiot and well-paid media pundits come out with articles that instill fear and mistrust in metals investing or bash gold and silver “bugs”, you can bet that they are being instructed to do so or are just too stupid or lazy to know better… or all of the above.

    Anti-metal campaigns in the media seem to be an indicator that the Cartel needs serious help. Witness one such from the bought and paid for NY Times:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/15/your-money/15stra.html?src=rechp

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  96. Hi, I’m a reformed investor who is learning to trade. I have stopped believing in free markets, the dollar, and the US government, and the only thing that makes sense to me now is farmland and PMs. Everything I thought I knew is wrong; so I’m finally teachable. And I want to learn from the folks on this site. My intent is to trade fiat, buy physical, and, as our esteemed leader says, prepare for the end of the Great Keyesian Experiment.
    I have been trading stock options on the PM and oil ETFs and have made some money but lost more on a wild ride on AGQ options. I hope to join the discussion on how to profit from their decay. It seems to me that option volatility premiums (vega) are still too high with the trading range we’re in and the only way to make any trading money is to go long or short. Right now, though, I’m just looking to profit from my GLL puts and UGL and SLV calls. Soon…soon...

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  97. Now I've used up all my column inches for several days so I'll return to being a reader.

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  98. why the spike in gold? anyone? anyone?

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  99. Wish I had some gold. She's fighting hard for you guys and girls today.

    ReplyDelete
  100. "Very positive, this is how silver was reacting before the latest 'correction' "

    I will be VERY happy to see those days return!

    Was feeling left out with XAU running. Got stopped out at a very small profit, but soooo happy to have that. Then XAG took off... added very tight trailing stop, just got stopped out.

    But, oh, that feels a LOT better than days of late.

    Patterns, gimme patterns.

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  101. @Grasshopper

    When the dollar collapses, what percentage loss will be greater, the 10% early withdrawal fee or...

    Also, any "asset" that is denominated in FRNs is subject to the devaluation of the dollar. I would put anything you don't want to risk in physical and the rest you can play around in the ETFs, stocks, etc.

    Just my opinion.

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  102. Because Gold Bitchez!

    Looks to be consolidating for another run. 10 min BB still not breached.

    ReplyDelete
  103. For those interested in NGD, you might find Gammon Gold (GRS) of interest as well. It has a similar price and many of its technical parameters mirror NGD's, and it seems to respond a little faster.

    Note it is supposed to have a name change around June 9th to Aurico.

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  104. Small specs covering shorts?

    TPTB won't like $36 Ag

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  105. Encore merci pour tous ces posts Turd, et un bonjour du fond de la France...
    Comme me dit ma grand-mere (qui utilisait des Napoleons en or): ecoute le Turd, il sait de quoi il parle, l'or il n'y a que ca de vrai !

    ReplyDelete
  106. If this keeps up, we'll have ORDs all over the place on the miners. I may end up keeping all of my longs over the weekend.

    Bear trap! Big ouchie!

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  107. Waited too long to buy the dip in gold. Oh, well. Might as well go mow the lawn now.

    ReplyDelete
  108. Confusing, very confusing that silver has not joined the rally, dumbfounded by it.

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  109. @Dave

    Actually I think that the recent commodity smashdown actually strengthens the case that there will be NO QE pause. Why? Because it gave them a bit of headroom so that they don't have to make a QE3 announcement from commodity highs. The only question is... do they need the significant additional headroom that a pause would bring?

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  110. Minera Andes copper spin out now delayed, due to the recent new legal action. Boo.

    http://www.dailyfinance.com/rtn/pr/minera-andes-defers-spin-out-of-los-azules-copper-project/rfid446366331/?channel=pf

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  111. It's going to take a good bit of rocket fuel to hit $36 by the 4pm close....quick, find me a fuel truck and a pump!

    ReplyDelete
  112. Up ticking Gold barely moves the price of silver up yet, the down ticks in Gold moves the silver price down rapidly.

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  113. I have to admit I almost panicked when it was on its way down to 34.20. Thanks to Turd and few others(they were buying in the drop, i hindsight what a smart move that was) who keep their cool. i probablly would have sold in the bottom.:P

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  114. From Jesse:

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/05/sp-500-futures-intraday-options.html

    "Fitch has downgraded Greek debt, which has caused a flight to safety in the dollar and precious metals"

    Small shorts gettin outa Dodge, leaving the fight to the big shorts.

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  115. CoolAid

    Buy whichever you like. they tend to run about the same.

    If you are buying in size, then Tulving seems to always be cheapest.

    http://www.tulving.com/

    ReplyDelete
  116. Hi Turd and turdites...long time reader, first time poster. My focus has been and is miners. I am surprised at SSK and Turd both agreeing that they thought $HUI would tank to 500. Just the opposite. I track with 4hr charting and TSI, as well as all the other indicators. $HUI
    bottomed on "turnaround tuesday"...this week.
    Like atlee, I like NGD, looks like our silver favorites are on the move, gpl, slw, exk. Next week looks very good to me, and I do believe that the miner trade itself is now changing.
    We shall see...but, seems to me this week is clearly, mournful monday, turnaround tuesday, wishy washy wednesday, thorough thursday and firework friday. hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
    I hope we get more miner talk on this blog again soon.

    Turd, you have helped guide me through all this rough terrain since your bottom in January. There are no words to express how much value this blog truly has.

    BenMonthly
    B.M.

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  117. pforth.....yeah i was wondering the same thing, but I am not sure if they have smashed it down enough. I wonder if they want to see oil down around 85 bucks before they continue the easing (however they will call it), so they can claim...see inflation is not a problem. I know I was talking to a trader friend of mine and he said people are going to start asking questions why gas is almost as high as it was in 2008 when oil was 150, so I am beginning to wonder if they will make another desperate attempt to drive commodities lower. From a psychological standpoint it would make sense as well, to Turd's point, that it will take alot for silver to get over 40 due to the forced correction that just happened will be burned in recent memory of most. Just a guess of mine and probably not right!

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  118. very good day for trading. Up at 1 a.m. to close a long silver position and put in some low bids. Then a good bounce at 4 a.m. and selling into 6a.m. then pyramiding down into the opening selloff in gold and silver and then the rocket blast. Thanks to Turd for the constant running analysis of criminal behavior and forensic forecasting. It is easy to get spooked by the hard waterfalls unless a slightly longer perspective is taken, if it is then everything is on sale and the whole psychology changes. Won't happen like this everyday that is for sure. The trick is to make the largest buys when the Market is selling the hardest, thats the trick. Its much easier to do that preMarket from 1a.m to 5a.m. pacific time. Its just hard on sleep but the price action is more forthright and sharp to me. Just my opinion.

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  119. Grasshopper

    Similar situation to my own, except I'm in a Roth. Got about 13% in miners and 13% in oilsands. And tons of cash. Tons. Nervous about everything. Lots of physical covers me on the metals.

    Been mostly in and out short hits on stuff lately. Been playing with selling covered calls and cash covered puts to generate a little return here and there.

    If you are thinking oil, I hold SU, CVE, CNQ, and COSWF. An alternative would be ENY, an ETF that is heavy on oilsands.

    If we could ever get a pullback in the stock market, I would be back into MCD and FDO. I like those as a consumer nondiscretionary, trade down sort of play, but hate to get back in at highs.

    Good Luck

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  120. Silver's acting so weird today, wow..

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  121. Congratulations, Rthaler!
    Are you shorting again now?
    Looks like its heading down.

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  122. I've been busy trading all morning. Continuing the small hit and run and switching horses.

    Expect downdraft to comex close. After that a bounce up then anyone's guess but I'll be closing my positions for any gain after 2 pm. Not interested in holding on a long weekend.

    NOTE: This is about trading. Where I'm long I'm still long and holding many weekends.

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  123. Grasshopper

    Forgot to say, a big pile of my "cash" is in STPZ, a short term Tip's fund. Pays me an actual return, unlike regular cash cash.

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  124. For those keeping score at hom:

    At 1515, I was able to unload my June 1500 calls that expire Wednesday. I then purchased some August 1550s.
    I also bought another July $40 silver call.

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  125. This gold rally is willy, willy I mean willy weird.

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  126. Eric#1, thanks very much for the kid advise!!

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  127. Next test is 34.95. Fail that and we're back down again.

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  128. Watch out for the bot after the comex close

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  129. Larry,
    True words. Thank you for the well written thoughtful post. It's all true and clear as a bell for those who will see. I appreciate your posts.

    Eric,
    I'm late in catching up to yesterday's comments but back to your options.. I don't understand all of the mechanics of covered calls.. but what I do know is............you know what you are doing. :] ...I'm thinking September will find you quite happy. ;)

    Ben,
    I agree.. I used to love all the miner talk and hope we can return there. I learn alot from all the day traders around here but that's just not what I'm participating in so it's all a bit less interesting to me personally than our discussions on miners and bacon and best health preps (Chin Music!) and overall just preparing in those ways. We all have something to contribute and a good mix of topics keeps it interesting! .........I notice a lot less diversity in topics since the May Day Massacre. :|

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  130. Krauser, great call. It just bounce from 34.95.

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  131. Wow. What a great trading day! I've repaired nearly 20% of my April losses in the last 5hrs :)

    If you trade, one thing you've got to understand is silver is really volatile and works like a rubber band. That's what makes it such a great trader - for paper. Keep your physical. Anyway, it gets stretched really hard in one direction and then bounces back (too far) in the other direction. You want to be able to play both ends and know where the middle is. And know your clock. There is strength and weakness depending on the time of day. Today was absolutely perfect for that. I've run every direction you see on those charts almost perfectly. My only regret is not going in heavier near tops (short) and bottoms (long). Not complaining, mind you :)

    I stand now with some shorts that I put on at 35.35, just waiting to close those out, probably around 1pm and then calling it a (wonderful!) day. If I had to hold those shorts into the weekend, I'd be okay with that. I expect waterfalls early Monday and again Tuesday. Then mid-day Tuesday through end of week up. Gotta go back to watching the tape now..GLTA.

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  132. $35.40, here we come.

    Gotta love the Prognotiscating abilities of BB's.

    Hopefully I don't have to eat my words soon.

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  133. @Grasshopper - agree with agophillic. My situation was that I could NOT withdraw from 401k at all - so I took out a loan against 50% of it, and converted to physical. I am now basically making installment payments (to my own 401k) to pay for the physical price locked in at the time. In my mind, paper is paper, and if you cannot touch it, you do not own it.

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  134. Eric #1....will you come cut my grass too?? ;) j/k Hope you all have a great day and a relaxing weekend! Thanks Turd for all you do.

    ReplyDelete
  135. Can anyone explain why a silver holder would benefit from a gold backed currency? its not like the ratio can only be so high.

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  136. Just to share my finding.

    For intra-hours silver chart, notice that the HFT bots always get booted out after shorting silver for around 6 hours from the peak, then silver goes north again.

    Compare the 3-day silver performance from the chart below then decide your entry point. Once the silver has fallen for nearly 6 hours from recent peak then can consider to buy.

    Welcome any suggestion to improve my algo.

    http://www.kitco.com/images/live/silver.gif

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  137. Grasshopper,

    Why do you think a rollover IRA is any different than your 401K? Until you take possession, it is yours. Will special tax status accts be taken before cash ones? I do believe so, so I think cash investment accts are OK for the time being. Otherwise they would be shutting down the markets from a private individual standpoint and that would be a very hard sell on a constitutional basis, even today, with the worst people you would want in control and in your populace.

    Regardless, if it isn't in your house with you, it is not yours. That's the whole point behind getting physical to those who do so. I personally have no doubt that early withdrawals will be disallowed or further penalized, new private IRA accts will be forbidden, 401K contents will be legislated, and everything will move to all socialized investment planning like was done with medicine (from individual transaction, to company sponsorship, to state control). Social insecurity for all. The confiscated funds will kick the can down the road a few years.

    You will get that 10% back before year end in your mind, even in a horrible scenario, right? Agriculture is way off its top, the metals are overcorrected, the miners are overcorrected for overcorrected metals, the dollar is on a false pedestal, etc. right?

    Surely you'll make 10% of mistakes along the way. I don't think taking posession will be one, it just has a transaction fee like your 3% credit card overhead.

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  138. It appears that for today at least, Gold and Silver are offering protection as the risk of sovereign chaos rises--and rises enough for participants to finally "get it."

    Yes, the USD index is nothing more now than a tracking device which makes the loss of purchasing power seem less than catastrophic. I discussed these issues with Max Keiser earlier this week.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3mW1eGBeoE&feature=player_embedded

    I have to congratulate the pro money management complex for continuing to report their performance in Nominal terms, as they fail in Real Terms.

    G

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  139. Pailin, can you expand on the "knowing your clock" part? What tools do you use for that if you use any? Thx.

    ReplyDelete
  140. Jim Lebenthal's daughter. The family has been in the Muni business for way over 40 years.

    Conflict of interest, pun intended :0)

    http://www.lebenthal.com/

    ReplyDelete
  141. @Shill / Bork,
    We’ve come a long way in 5 years, haven’t we? I should’ve acted on Keith’s recommendations to buy Gold back in ’06. At least I wised up and started accumulating the following year, sold my rental house at the peak back in ’07 and paid off my residence, thanks to HousingPanic!

    I still remember how you’d slam the trolls who picked on you on HousingPanic. Blew coffee out of my nose once or twice reading your excellent comebacks – ha ha!

    Cheers,
    Mammoth

    ReplyDelete
  142. Yes Pailin- your clock timings would be appreciated!! what are you expecting the dip to be one monday? of course, i dyodd

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  143. I went short gold at 1514

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  144. @9:45 AM EST, TF Said:

    "I would suspect that you'll see that move either later today or Monday. Silver will make a run toward next resistance around 36.50 and gold will jump toward 1515."

    By the looks of the 24hr spot charts, that move (for Au at least) started 15 minutes later. Not quite a parting of the Red Sea, but moving markets ain't a bad start.

    Where are all the nit pickin', stick pokin', opinion shovin' Trolololos now?

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  145. It keeps this up and we might see $35.42, I just don't see $35.50 in the cards yet.

    ReplyDelete
  146. Lol wow M8 we have come a LONG LONG!!! way.

    Good to see some of you still kicking around. Yes for sure a lot of good laughs. Been buying since then ...Hope all is well for sure. Great to see us old school guys still kicking around. Lot of memories, lot of memories for sure, and some great lessons.

    Keep in touch!...

    ReplyDelete
  147. Pailin wrote:

    "Wow. What a great trading day! I've repaired nearly 20% of my April losses in the last 5hrs :)"

    Seriously? Fuck. That's good trading.

    ReplyDelete
  148. Ginger

    A covered call is pretty simple. I already own 200 shares of SU. Currently at 41 ish. No plans to sell it. So I sell 2 contracts of Sept 45 calls. I put almost $300 in my pocket on that yesterday. Almost 1.50 per share. If SU runs up to 45 or more before the third friday in Sept, then someone out there has the right to buy my shares at 45. Not the end of the world as far as I'm concerned. I keep the $300 whether they ever get exercised or not. Risk is oil tanks, SU tanks, if I'm inclined to panic out, I can't because I have to keep that SU stock as long as those options are out there. But I planned to keep them come hell or high water anyway. And hey, if I really want to panic I can find other ways! :)

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  149. pat,

    Good catch on TRE. I missed it. Thought it would hit 6.70. Damn.

    ReplyDelete
  150. Texas politicians knew agency hid the amount of radiation in drinking water |
    khou.com Houston

    I just knew something was in the water in the Lone Star State.

    http://www.khou.com/home/-Texas-politicians-knew-agency-hid-the-amount-of-radiation-in-drinking-water-122205439.html

    ReplyDelete
  151. Krause, Thanks. Keep us posted.
    What is BB?

    ReplyDelete
  152. http://www.newzimbabwe.com/blog/index.php/2011/05/gmuponda/thumbs-up-to-gold-backed-zim-dollar/

    RESERVE Bank Governor Gideon Gono’s proposal this week for the introduction of a gold-backed Zimbabwe dollar is an idea whose time has come. If implemented properly, the gold-backed local currency will resolve the liquidity crisis currently ravaging the sanctions-hit economy.

    In light of the global financial crisis and sanctions, Zimbabwe is effectively barred from accessing any meaningful lines of credit and the liquidity crisis will persist if the domestic capital market is not re-activated with the introduction of a local currency backed by a precious metal.

    There is no shortage of reasons for the collapse of the Zimbabwe dollar, but it is now universally agreed that quasi-fiscal activities by the central bank and excessive printing of money accelerated the demise of the local currency. But the country has started to generate meaningful revenues with Zimbabwe Revenue Authority regularly outperforming revenue collection targets. Previously, the government had been forced to print money to finance everything. This is no longer necessary given the economic recovery and the discovery of diamonds.

    more on link

    ReplyDelete
  153. @kliguy...right with you!
    @Ginger, thanks. I am all miners all the time, figured I should have a specialty and stick with a program, not stray. I figure, if you believe, you believe...period. Two years now, and using multiple watchlists to keep comparing movers.
    Looks to me today, the trend is UP! Time to BUY!
    BenMonthly
    B.M.

    ReplyDelete
  154. Coin Shop Report

    Obviously all the good stuff is still locked up in the back. But the premiums are completely out of whack.

    Generic rounds - $4 over spot
    Eagles - $9 over spot

    I am not a buyer at these outrageous prices. Somebody tell me where, besides ebay, I can get 2-4 oz per week of generic silver at <$2 premium.

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  155. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  156. @youks
    re: clock watching
    Here are my general observations...
    1. Market open/close times very important. This applies to all markets, not just NY 9:30-4. You need to know those if you're going to trade 24hrs. If not, know that a lot of action occurs outside the NY time and you'll get whipsawed on gaps (though EE tries very hard to close those gaps in pre/post market action).
    2. Each HOUR is significant. Generally the trend of a given hour (up or down) will reverse itself in the last 5 mins or so. It may or may not be a big move, but there's usually an opposite to trend move. Robots reallocating?
    3. Major market times (using ET here) are 3-4am, 7-10am, 12-1:30pm. You'll usually see range switches, sometimes dramatic in those periods from the previous period. Not 100% here, but often enough to play on. Look at past 1hr and 2hr open vs. close price and you should see these patterns easily.

    That's all I can share or you guys will exactly trade my system and rob me of my ability to stay one step ahead (and thus profitable :)
    Or worse..lose big time by overplaying your hand and blame me like some have blamed Turd!

    And if anybody cares, my target cover for my shorts - today - is 34.70s. We're still pretty overbought in the rebound up in 35.20. If I don't get that target, I'll hold over weekend and may continue to use it as a strategic hedge against my core silver longs. I do not believe we've seen the last of low 34s yet.

    ReplyDelete
  157. TRE back in the resistance buzz saw. Second day in a row it's bumped into the 7.20's. If it can break through, I'm joining the party I initially missed.

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  158. NOthing brings me more satisfaction than seeing my accounts up while the S&P is down. Happy Day.

    ReplyDelete
  159. Eric,
    I really have only scanned info on covered calls in my options 'education' so far. That sounds simple and doable. Even for me. .........Not that I'm even thinking of it yet. I have to get my account back and prove I can make a little money with just the straight call buying first. ....I was really UP.... .......before I was really down. :D

    Thanks for the tutorial though. I get it! :]

    ReplyDelete
  160. Folks, the end is nearer for Greece.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB10YR:IND

    3.590%
    VALUE: 16.572

    And Gold is giving you a silent message. The sheeple won't know what hit them.

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  161. @padme

    Bollinger bands. Just from lurking around here for the last week I've gone from guppy to at least goldfish. If I hadn't made a bad trade 2 days ago, I would be way up just by using SLV, 1,5,10 minute charts with RSI and BB's to guide my trades.

    SSK is spot on with being able to trade this both ways through the volatility, I just have too much money tied up in what I hope will eventually be a lucrative trade. Can't play the market now because I was dumb earlier, the lessons we learn.

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  162. @ Badu

    California Numismatic Investments

    10oz bars @ $2 over spot

    ReplyDelete
  163. @Shill / Bork, Now that I think about it - weren't you the one on HP who wrote about buying Silver back then?

    Seems you were a Turdite before there was even a Turd.

    Email for more reminiscing & laughs:
    mammothfarm@yahoo.com

    --------------------

    Yes I was Mammoth, but back then I was called the troll :) Today this troll is debt free and enjoying the shit storm...As a matter of fact now that you remind me old friend...rememeber this

    TOLD YOU SO!!!!!!!! HA HA HA HA..

    Email logged. I hang at Calculated risk as well.

    ReplyDelete
  164. Badu,

    Check your local pawnshops. If they get used to you coming in regularly they will offer you a better price, even if it is not a lot of money. Turnover is how they profit, regular customers are valued.

    ReplyDelete
  165. I don't know when it will be, aftr QE 2, 3 4, or 5 or whatever. But I think the endgame is to end QE. As Turd pointed out, that would be the end of America. But the whole idea is to end America.

    The dollar is not the same as a treasury bond. Whereas now the dollar is backed by the US military, the dollar, when converted into a global currency, will be backed by a global army. The US will simply be another serf nation.

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  166. thank you Pailin, I have noticed 3 am is a dip then by 4am it is usually back up 50 cents from that dip.So Basically, look for a smackdown right before NY open

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  167. At this point the gold daily chart looks nothing short of supurb.

    50 day MA held
    MACD trying to turn up
    downward trendline resistence broken to the upside
    upward trendline support tested 3 times and holding

    Also, SLW held the 200day perfectly.

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  168. Crude joining the party! :)

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  169. LOL! look at the DOW claw its way out of a hole...Gold green while the DOW is in the tanker...No! No! we will have none of that.

    This is almost too easy.

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  170. @Ag
    That XAU short will likely work out nicely. I was so buys with XAG, I didn't have time to play it myself. If I had, my target cover would have been 1495, and I might just have gone long too at that point, if it was Tuesday.

    @SSK
    Yes, it's true. I did that well already today. I didn't even do it right, woke up at 4:20 this morning (lazy@ss!) and missed the obvious short at 4pm when folks allowed Asia to bid it all the way up to 35.60. By the time I was booted up and ready to go, too much of the opportunity had already eroded, so I passed. Had I grabbed that short too...oh mama!

    Folks...understand that for a little while, buy 33 and sell 35.50 is going to be the play, at least until it's not :)
    Then there's 36.50, an even bigger short point. And then 39.50, a monster short point. I'm a FA bull on silver for sure, but it's going to be an uphill battle and it will be traded heavily, if it goes up at all. There's a fair chance that if we don't get over 35.50 is a big way (and really more like 36.50) next week, then it isn't going to happen and 30 becomes what atlee and i "fear". The chart is still really weak and not strengthening much either. So at best we're basing and at worst (not including Black Swans here) money will start to move away to other areas for summer doldrums. This shouldn't be a worry for physical holders, but it's why I prefer being moderately short in my trading account as a 65% hedge against deflation of my non-trading core.

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  171. Badu - I buy from Liberty Coin Service:
    http://www.libertycoinservice.com/

    They sell at fair prices and are very honest. All of my physical has been purchased from them.

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  172. Hey Turd -

    Funny, when I saw your video I thought you were really cute in a chubby frat boy kind of way.....

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  173. To: agophillic, Eric #1, CD, and Code the Plumber

    Thanks for your responses.

    Grasshopper

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  174. Ginger

    The sticking point is you need to already own the shares in question. Therefore you need to already have an account with some size involved. If you are swinging for the fences with a small account, then it won't really apply. You need to do naked calls and puts, not "covered" ones.

    But, if you have a big enough account, then it's about the simplest, lowest risk thing a person can do in options. My account is approved to do covered calls because it's sort of the "training wheels' version of options. I'm not even approved to do the stuff you do! :D

    Although, I did not request such approval. I know better not to tempt myself.

    Also sold some cash covered puts this morning. FDO June 50. If FDO goes below 50, I'll be forced to buy FDO at 50. Not the end of the world because I love FDO anyway. BUT, I have to keep the money sitting in my account until then to buy the stock if necessary. Not a problem since I've got cash piled all over the place earning nothing. But that premium I just put in my pocket earned a little return on it.

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  175. Canada's head central banker says (supposed to be off the record) that we are still in a financial crisis.

    Well at least he is truthful off the record.

    http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/mark-carney-frets-about-us-debt-woes/article2028318/?service=mobile

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  176. padme, no I am not shorting today. I have done well and will stand aside and have low bids in should the market sell down. I will pyramid back into long positions if that is the case, my smallest buys being highest. I am somewhat hedged in ZSL but I don't like that vehicle, it is too manic. Its there for me basically for psychological reasons. Time to get some sleep. I still have not heard an explanation for the Johnny Wadd Holmes shot in Gold today.

    Congrats to Turd on those calls and rolling them over. Each of us has our own style I sense. I am looking to trade more preMarket this year if things continue. I find the trading then easier to do, the algos don't track me as much, they seem just happy to have the liquidity I offer in the wee hours. Who knows? I am certainly no great pro, just trying to cautiously accumulate and still reeling from the hit I took that week of the Sunday night massacre. Its mostly all psychological, trading. I cannot blame myself for being caught then. It was an unprecedented attack with both barrels on the Silver market by a small gaggle of sociopathic criminals. This you just cannot foresee, you can be on the lookout for it but one never knows. Trading and owning Silver is a radical act of patriotism and beleif in the sanctity of the individual vs. the dweeb Shylocks now running the Western World.

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  177. @Turd

    It is increasingly looking like your Bottom 2 was entirely correct. I take my hat off to you. 2 SIGNIFICANT bottom calls (January and this week) that were dead on is exceptionally good timing. Well done. Very well done.

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  178. @ Krause

    Learned something new.
    It's always 3 steps forward and 2 step backward, right? I'm sure it will all work out for you, Best wishes.

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  179. @ Badu,

    You can try Lear Capital. Silver rounds go for about $2 over spot. No minimums. However, it's only worth it for small orders if you can get free shipping. I used code 84132 the other week.

    Otherwise, for smaller purchases, coin shops are your best bet.

    Here's another thought: Even if you buy Maples and Eagles at a premium, most places will buy back at a premium as well. So the difference in the premiums will end up being less than the $2 over spot you would pay for the rounds and get no premiums when you sell, maybe even less than spot. And they just look nicer.

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  180. Weird action right now across the board. Well, lowest OI for silver for the year is all that counts.. can't go much lower, so the outlook for the next few months is just ultra bullish.

    Nearly all in, will go all in over the next 1-2 weeks and will hold and maybe lighten up in a few months' time when (daily) RSI goes over 70 again.

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  181. Test for strength at 35.01. Still hopeful for a push up after this.

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  182. 1 minute charts looks oversold. If I am reading it right, we should get a bounce at some point.

    EE excepting of course.

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  183. @LevelHeaded
    Was doing some back-reading and your comment re: bank discouraging cash w/d really caught my eye. That's a very bad sign. My bank hasn't done it yet, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen. When I saw late last year that FDIC had quietly upped the coverage limit from 250k/account to "unlimited" (I'm not kidding!) that scared the cr@p out of me. I immediately moved 10% of my assets (overall) to cash and then cashed out. That cash is sitting, and will continue to sit, in a safe place in my home. Of late I've actually upped that position to five full years of living expenses in cash, in hand. Not that "price" of goods (and thus 5yrs plan) will matter in SHTF bank holiday scenario, but I figure real goods could/would hyper-inflate in price and my 5yrs would actually only be worth 1yr :), get me? At that point I also upped my physical silver position. Should have done same with gold but didn't. Oh well, there's still time for gold (at least it looks that way?)

    @everybody
    Another thing that really worried me was when my 401k, which has a safest option of short bond fund -no money market and no flat cash option, sent me a letter (around mid-April, when CNBS couldn't stop talking about how low daily NYSE vols were :) stating that "young" people should be in stocks not short duration bonds. Did that ever smack of EE MOPE?? Sure did to me. I hope not too many of my fellow plan-holders got taken in. It cracked me up though because, if only they knew that I hated being in a short bond fund! I want nothing to do with bonds, price/rate risk way too high. In a managed account w/o metals option, I'd only want to be in CASH or (if I must) MONEY MARKET. However, if rates ever do rise to 5-10-15% (Volcker Redux), that's definitely where I would be (in a hands-off acct like 401k).

    Anyway, the early signs are coming up faster and faster, all sorts of new credit cards with zero rates being tossed around, FDIC unlimited coverage, withdrawal "difficulties" and discouragement...read between the lines. Banks are scared of liquidity crisis and (to support consumer economy) will do anything to keep you spending as long as it's NOT physical CASH.

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  184. We may look back on Norway's move to cut the purse strings to Greece as a 'black swan' moment - setting up momentum for several dominoes to fall....You Euro longs may want to take this opportunity to jump ship.

    Just saying, its your money.

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  185. Want to see some American who totally refuse to be victims? Look at the berms some of our great American Farmers have built to protect their homes and their way of life from the flooding Mississippi. Amazing. These are my people!

    After all hip deep bs we've been wading thru, it does my heart a ton of good to see pictures like this and know how many Real Americans are still our countrymen and women...

    http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread706134/pg1

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  186. @ewc58

    Thanks for sharing that link...that is great to see.

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  187. Eric,

    "Not a problem since I've got cash piled all over the place earning nothing."

    Oh.....to have such a problem. :D

    Seriously.. I understand that you have to have to stock to back up the covered calls. Makes perfect sense.. but it does seem a bit more complicated (even tho I follow) than just buying straight out calls. Fewer steps. So, even though going with covered calls first before 'working ones way up' to buying calls & puts.. ..well, that just seems backwards to me! Your deal seems more complicated only because it's got more steps. I'm in to simplicity. :D

    ...And BTW.. I have my miner account separate from my options account. Two totally different platforms. I do not have options/covered call approval in my miner account for much the reason that you mentioned.. I do not want to be tempted there! ....The options account is merely an experiment in IF I can be successful at options. ...Or as I like to say it, It's an experiment in how fast I can lose $1K. :D

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