Sunday, May 8, 2011

A Reader's Idea

It's Mother's Day and while mother is being tended to by the LTs, I thought I'd try to clear my inbox. Fat chance I'll make it all the way through...I still have 132 unopened and unread. Sorry.

At any rate, reader "Jim" sent me this. I thought I would C&P it to start a discussion.

"Go to

and look at the prices.

And then go to ebay and see the prices there.

It's time to break away from the Comex.  Everybody reads you, Turd.  Wanna show the Comex that the pen is mightier than than the margin increase?   Maybe you could say something and suggest that some producers and big retailers might want to look at making their own price based on demand, and not based on the Comex.  What good does it do to sell at the Comex price if you sell out and then got nothing to sell?  First Majestic is doing their own price discovery.  And it's working.  The best thing to do is for the real, physical, silver world to just walk away from the Comex.  They have no silver.  They represent no more than 5% of the market anyway.  They sell a few million ounces every other month.  The US mint sells way more than they do.

The Comex is about finished and you can hurry it along.  All it takes is one or two others to do what FM is doing and the crowd will get the idea.  No need to wait til they self destruct.  We, the physical market, are so much bigger than the Comex.  Screw them.  They can't deliver real silver anyway.   All it takes is some balls to do what FM is doing.  I'm a seasoned business man.  I know it, and I can feel it.  It's the right time.  Screw the Comex, we don't need them for price discovery.  If a retailer does it, he can easily tell if his price is too high or too low.  If there's more demand than you got silver, raise the price.  If there's less demand, then lower it.  Once a few biggies jump on the band wagon, it will all fall in place.

This will make you famous, Turd.  You will do more to help all those people get through the coming hard times by doing this, than anything else you can do.  The only thing that the Comex, owned by the EE, does for us is set the price, and FM is showing us you don't need them for that.

The price of most everything is tied to the wholesale price and to local supply and demand.  Ultimately supply and demand rules, and the silver market is no different.  The retailers can price the market, you don't need crooks in $2000 suits to do it for you.

If a dealer sets his own price, and a customer says, "Hey your price is way above spot."  The dealer can say politely,  "It's Ok, if you want to buy your silver from the Comex, go ahead.  They don't have real silver for sale, I do."  If some big dealers do this, at first maybe customers will flock to some on line dealer who has a lower price, but he will quickly sell out.  In this time of short supply, it's the right time to do this.  The market will make the price.

Tell the people to wake up.  No need to be hypnotized by a bunch of scheming crooks in New York City in $2000 suits.  They are scumbag thieves who take advantage of everyone they can.  Let them screw each other over.  If people want to play futures, let 'em.  We don't need those crooks to tell us how much an ounce of silver should cost.  It's time for the tail to stop wagging the dog."

Have a great day. More this evening after everything re-opens. TF


  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

  2. Sounds like a good idea to me. People are on eBay every day buying and selling silver at above spot. Obviously there is a market for it.

  3. The price of silver going forward will be measured by the PREMIUM.

    Here's a guy from the former Soviet Union who moved to Canada - check out his ideas on PREMIUMS - goes right along with this post:

    100 $ silver in 2011 follow up. Paper silver vrs physical silver

  4. I am from Vancouver, headquarters for First Majestic. I went to a local bullion dealer in the city and asked if they bought silver coins from First Majestic. The rep. told me that all of FM coins are weighed prior to any kind of deal b/c their coins are not always 1oz - sometimes a little more, sometimes a little less. He also questioned the purity.

    Just do your DD and make sure that you have somewhere to sell them when the time comes.I personally only own silver Maple Leafs

  5. If this comes to pass, does it mean that that making money as a silver-bull in the paper game has come to an end?

    I assume that the comex settling contracts in fiat at crazy premiums must be a huge bull-indicator seeing as it is an easy buck? Standing ones ground in the Comex game and take delivery, planning on re-selling on the physical market must also be incentive for bullish tendencies even in the paper-game?

    If this comes to pass... how will the paper game play out?

  6. The new policy post-1971 (breakdown of Bretton Woods and Removal from Gold Standard) was to expand monetary supply to spur new-found economic growth. Thus, from 1971-2008 America has experienced the “wealth affect,” as the strategy was to have economic growth to outpace the increasing monetary supply has been working as planned. Well, the “wealth affect” seems to now be over, as the price of gold since this new-found policy tells the story.

    The Federal Reserve Note is nearing its terminal shelf-life, with potential to be within the next 2 years (sometime mid 2012?) where the world will officially reject the legitimacy of the private banking cartel's fiat note, which happens to double as the World Reserve Currency. There is no trust when they have the power to print their own debt, while all the suckers before hold devaluing pieces of paper.

    We need real change, and I fully agree with economic analysts point above. This post goes in the right direction. We need to start talking solutions instead of being complacent with economic (& resulting political) tyranny. We have the resources to change the world, but first we must understand what is going on.

    Federal Reserve Note, 1971-2012?

    We must start talking positive once we understand that it is the words we speak and the gestures we imply which create our future reality. This is the time to be speaking... the previous thousands of years of human civilization have led to this very moment. We are on the eclipse of returning the power of issuing currency back to the people, but it will not be without great struggle and pain for all who are unsuspecting. It will be even harder for those who have been aware, as "put up or shut up" time is approaching. Let us gather the momentum and change human history...

    Let these days be the foundation for a world-wide philosophical and technological revolution, which will truly start by ending the private central bank which profits by issuing their private currency to the governments on interest, specifically the Federal Reserve here in Americans.

    The opportunities in front of us are just as exciting as they are terrifying. Do not forget about others if they seek truth, for you are helping create the world you wish to see when you acknowledge the secrets behind the western central banks.


    Ron Paul 2012

    P.S., when we are predicting gold and silver to rise, we are predicting the devaluation of the US currency in being realized. Remember that when we are profiting in the not to distant future...

  7. The term "preaching to the choir" comes to mind.

  8. Economic Analyst

    so you control the blog? ... you don't have to read anything you don't want to ... so just skip it ... it's the weekend so what's the big deal ... do see Turd getting upset about the weekend posts about things other than silver and gold ...

    Some people received help this weekend for problems that have been plaguing them for years ... are you that self centered and SELFISH ... I for one ABSOLUTELY believe you are ... just be patient this horrible weekend for YOU (because we all know only YOU matter) will all be over soon when the markets open at 6pm ...

  9. I think this will be the trend, toward price discovery away from the paper market. By the way, First Majestic and Great panther have an amazing business model. Digging up real money from the ground and making coins to sell to the public. This seems like a no lose business model,in the setting of expanding production for both companies.

  10. Im holding XAU, XAG and might keep it till tueday. My other option is to sell tonight at 3-4am est then buy in agian around comex open.

    Equities scare me this week, month. I feel they will hurt PM's performance if they lag.

    Hit and run is my short term plan until I get a feel. The ending of QE2 will be a major factor in the coming weeks IMO. Thoughts would be appreciated

  11. Whether it's Ron Paul, musing at bacon, or pictures of the family pet everyone here needs to feel part of a community and weekends like this one are the best to put that out so we all can concentrate on future prep during the weekdays.

    And then there's the Kentucky Derby of course.

    Remember your Mother!

  12. I too have wondered why many are not buying direct from the miners. FM has a great setup for this, however it might be a good idea for them to have 1000 and 5000 ounce bars at a lower price. COMEX is a scam. I have also wondered why Sovereigns do not just outright buy the miners and then can just have total volume pumped out for them. For example if China was so concerned about US Treasuries, just go shopping and buy miners stipulating payment will be made in Treasuries as part of the deal.

  13. Hey guys,

    Here's a hilarious animation exhorting folks to get even with the banksters and government:

  14. @ Chin Music,
    Totally agree (from previous thread) about terminology. Even if talking about it makes me a subject-changing disinformation spreading troll/shill for the EE.

  15. @averagejoe
    I didn't hold XAG/XAU over the weekend because I didn't want to be in your shoes. If I was, I would see what the open looks like (and be ready to hit market order if it looks like the bounce up is weak) and then close at 3am. You can always re-buy or at least reassess after London marks their territory.

  16. H (Org)

    sweet ... love the new moniker ... fitting :-)

  17. Turd and friends... You will love this...

    In a nutshell, Hong Kong introducing a gold future contract for Asia. Obviously Silver will follow...


  18. I have always seen ebay as a truer price than spot. Who can actually pay spot no one in reality. Change is coming.....
    Scottj88 carrying the torch, lighting the way as usual.
    Chin keep up the good work, ignore the negatives.
    Everyone has a right to express their opinion, I prefer to know where everyone stands. Not everyone truly understands what is taking place or where their place is. As long as your work is helping others keep on keeping on.

  19. @ Pailin thanks for input

    Such a crazy market. When is your next long position coming?

  20. I think we all know that, sooner or later, the price for physical will completely decouple from the paper price. It makes sense that process will happen first for retail, so FM's actions are not that surprising.

    However, silver is still an industrial metal and I believe that still accounts for 50%+ of the demand, so I don't think the futures market can be dispensed with just yet.

    From a personal point of view, I am not ready for the retail price to go through the roof yet, either, as I still need to acquire much more than I have. So, I'm not wild about the proposal...

  21. Oh and forgot to mention... the contract will be traded in USD.. not HKD... Nice and sweet !
    BTFD !

  22. Thanks, EA! I always suspected that Eric was a government disinfo agent with the way he kept going on and on about that damned canned bacon. I almost sold off my gold to go long porkbellies. Thanks for putting me back on the right track.

  23. This comment has been removed by the author.

  24. RobL;
    First Majestic, like many producers, have thier product minted at the Northwest Territorial Mint, where they are certified for weight and purity.
    From their website 'All First Majestic silver products are marked for their purity (0.999) and weight (troy oz). Each silver product comes with a Certificate of Authenticity from the mint'

  25. The more they manipulate the paper price, the more it will diverge from the real physical price.

  26. Mister,
    I'm not in to the whole canned bacon thing, but it's a weekend blog and many on here do like talking about the canned bacon and other food stuff, why try to single out one person while kissing EA's ass in the process? I tried giving EA the benefit of the doubt when he started posting again, seems he is doing more spamming lately than anyone else, but I guess that's better than stock pumping. Are you sure you're not Bubbles?

  27. So the offer price is now the 'real' price of silver, even if there are no bids there?


    I have a friend trying to sell a vacation home for $2 million, but there are no buyers, yet he claims it's worth $2 million, and the real estate agents are just colluding to keep him from selling, or else they are all lazy.

    Please show me one of these shops that is offering to BUY silver at $40 an OZ today. Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

    Of course everyone wants to sell it at $40 if they can, I mean, come on. I can probably find shops offering to sell at $50, $60 and $70. So what?

    Some of these places are probably stuck with inventory they bought at higher prices, and are desperate to unload it.

    I'd also bet the lack of inventory in general is due to coin shops being very reluctant to stock up at high prices.

    Finally, can someone explain to me why it is a bad thing for TPTB to be forcing the price of silver down if you really want to buy it?

    If someone artificially forced down the price of something I wanted to buy, I'd be ecstatic.

    There's a severe lack of rational thought here.

  28. I hope hope we don't turn Silver into Tulip Bulbs.

  29. Justin

    Mister wasn't serious ... he was firing a shot over the bow

  30. I went to the first majestic site.
    I saw colloidal silver on there and that really angered me.
    That stuff is poison that turns your skin gray/grey(for our British friends).
    Google images argyria.
    Any site that sells it should not be trusted.

  31. I need to stop coming on here when I'm drunk. I can't even tell who's serious and who's not anymore, but I promised I would stay drunk until we get back into the $40's and I never break a promise. Ever.

    Anyone want to take a guestimate as to which direction silver will move when the market opens in a couple of hours? I think we'll be ticking up tonight.

  32. Turd, Turdites, check this bloggers post. Seems to suggests JPM may not, nor have ever been Short silver, and we bugs are jackasses basically. Hard to read through, it seems intentionally long.

  33. If Comex represents only 5% of the market, as you say, then surely it would be easy for Comex to get physical silver. Why all the conspiracy theories?

  34. Seriously, I wouldn't trade my gold for bacon. Maybe for slow-smoked ribs, with the sauce on the side, and an ice cold Labatts.

  35. latest from zerohedge claims China's starting their own exchange to compete with the COMEX...

    Pretty effin' awesome in my book. Competition is the key to a free market, shame it takes a bunch of commies to see that...

  36. Completely speculation but with the recent price action who would want to sell hard physical at $35 or even $37? If this really is the time to buy the dip then why should FM or any dealer sell for a small premium? I am sure they've been bitten during the parabolic rise where orders at $40 were shipped on a day when spot was $42.

    I think they're basically hedging. If someone wants silver bad enough let them come buy it at $5 over spot. Otherwise FM will build what is surely a depleted inventory rather than get in Great Panther's position of being sold out. Should the price rise $3 this week who will be happier GP if they can't supply or FM who sold for $5 over and has product in stock? And this is for retail product I doubt they are selling to non-contracted industrial at this price.

    To me the "real" price of silver is non-contract industrial price. Sadly I don't know what that is. Coin dealer, ebay or now even producer mint pricing reflects only what retail customers are willing to pay. Too bad mom and pop don't make the market fundamentals in silver.

  37. I have no idea if JPM was ever short silver or not, no one could know without being an insider.

    They could easily have offset any short position by buying calls, or entering into private contracts with miners, just for example.

    Huge amounts of derivatives contracts are completely private affairs only know to the parties involved. Can anyone say they know the details of every derivatives contract JPM has entered into?

    Anyone basing their 'investment' thesis on whether another player is long or short is definitely not investing, that's called playing poker, calling a bluff that may or may not be one.

  38. Hey, wasn't all that allocation of silver, we heard off last week, under different status which prevents it from being delivered (sorry, I forgot the name of the status) just to save it from selling under these low prices?

  39. H#1 (Previously just H..) said... "In two years, ALL symptoms gone and our cats are healthy, happy, and vibrant! I won't blather on about it for now, but happy to answer any questions on cats - after all, when the SHTF, our pets will need to be taken care of too."

    Mmm cats, love them with a side of fava beans!
    Just kidding. ;-)
    I'm a big cat person myself and look forward to the new forum where you can help me get a handle on my 2 psycho boys diets.

    Economic Analyst said... "LETS STICK Y+TO THE SUBJECTS"

    Patience is a virtue, this is the off market/weekend & is when people share more than just market news & ideas.
    I'm sure the new forum will help for those who are distracted with the chit chat.

  40. @ JC

    I too was thinking EE might be onto their 2008 playbook again.

  41. from

    the E-Bay metal exchange



  42. Frankly as a silver bullion holder this price difference has me a little worried. You can read whatever you want to into it but I believe this can go BOTH directions. I haven't contacted them personally but the small JR miners claim to have palettes and palettes of this stuff just lying around. IF that is true, couldn't the Comex simply buy some?

    Also, if FM prices are half of everyone else's doesn't that kind of show silver is overpriced?

    I keep thinking about the gov't powers to change the value of anything, and, at any time (ie digital money is already popular).

    Stay NIMBLE.

  43. Honh Kong Comex + us regular, peasant investors = new Hunt Brothers? Anyone think this may be the last BTFD opportunity for gold and silver? If they are going to start trading gold, silver can't be too far behind it. I think with the Chinese and other countries stock piling metals over the last 2-3 years, they are more than likely going to see their investments valued where they should be, not where the Comex dictates they should be. Looks like we weren't the only ones pissed off with the 5 margin hikes back to back!

  44. Looks as if they are beginning to come out of the woodwork.

  45. SilverDog, I guaran-damn-tee that JPM plays both long and short. They're in the business of making money, and they have all of the inside info, as Costata points out. I think we'd all do well here to quit being distracted by so much of the conspiracy bullshit. It doesn't matter if JPM is long or short silver. It doesn't matter if the Comex can or can't be broken. What matters is that the dollar is terminally ill, and when it suffers its final death throe, the world will be thrown into the penultimate currency crisis.

    What matters is how we preserve our wealth and security before and through the coming currency collapse. After reading FOFOA (and Costata) over the weekend, I'm focusing on accumulating more gold. Silver concerns me for many reasons. However, I do take issue with Costata neglecting some important factors which may heavily influence silver's future, e.g. states passing legislation recognizing silver as money; a possible election of Ron Paul to the Presidency; the simple fact that silver buying will become a frenzy as a "poor man's gold." But if the basis of your silver buying is an unprovable theory about crashing JPM by way of trapping the silver shorts, then you're buying for the wrong reason.

  46. Karim said... "COMEX MONOPOLY WILL BE OVER... "

    Golden rule?
    Doesn't guarantee the rules will be equitable.
    Just sayin...

  47. Saw another interesting link over on ZH while I was there reading the Hong Kong news. Goldman is now singing a different tune and advising that investors get back into oil!

    "Baghdad believes it would not be in its interests to try to achieve the 12 million target by 2017 because boosting global supply would depress prices."

    Iraq Slashes Projected Crude Output by 50% Over Next 5 Years

    Maybe commodities just might rebound quicker than expected after being manipulated down last week.

  48. I'm a newbie, can anyone point me down a good path to start learning more. I've been reading much over the past month, but wondered if anyone had any good insight on books, or websites that helped them. So far this is my favorite site. Much thanks to TF, and all the rest for contributing so much to the forums for new people like myself to learn from. I hope I can be as fruitful one day.

  49. Looks like the EUR/USD rate has gapped up in pre market trading

    If it continues to climb, POSX is due a drop.

  50. so gas has dropped from $3.99/ gal. to $3.95 here...
    MSM news said expect "A .50 cent drop in gas price by June"

  51. Justin,
    Why would the EE smash silver and oil so much, with such anger, just to let it rise a week later? I hope silver rebounds fast, but just can't believe this will happen so soon. Unless the whole thing was due to paper holders dumping, maybe just catalyzed by the EE. Just a thought.

  52. Whatever happened to Andrew Maguire? Didn't his experience ignite the idea that the supply of PM's are extremely low? That set off Max Keiser's buy silver campaign and shortly after or simultaneously, Turd took a silver lead on ZH comments. Then we got this blog, there was great rejoicing in the land, and now we are apparently trying to discover if we can beat TPTB or not. So where's Maguire now and how does he stand on this question I wonder?

  53. I thought basically the same thing after reading the Costata article, Mister. I think it more or less overlooked the inflation protection/poor man's gold factor.

    Also, much of what I've read lately overlooks one major factor: the increased availability of information provided to the "common man" via the internet. That's a big one, IMO. A game changer, both economically and politically.

  54. I wish I saw this before last weekend:

    Also, this guy called a difference in paper price and delivery price a while ago:

  55. i listed 1 generic ounce round silver on the "bay" just to see the response. Started @ .99c bidding now up to $34.50 + 2.99 shipping, with 2 days left on the listing.
    i payed about $28.00/ per... so i thought showed good demand still exists.

  56. mc2560 - colloidal silver doesnt turn your skin blue. im a doctor and use colloidal silver in my office all the time. the people that are turning blue arent using colloidal silver. i really dont care to go into an explanation of it all. but your information is completely wrong.

  57. If I were a billionaire or TPBOC, I would be shorting silver too. I'd use JPM as my proxy, and for every two or three contracts I short I'd buy one at the lower rate induced by my shorts and stand for delivery. Sure I'd lose money at first, but in short order I'd have all the real metal.

    The shorts at that point would really just be a hedge against my physical holdings, and if I were, say China my plan would be to get rid of my FRN's anyway.

    When it was time to finally cover my shorts, buying back my positions and standing for delivery would wipe out every last ounce of real metal in the comex and SLV vaults, and my plan would have worked pretty well, as I would then have accumulated a majority of the known silver reserves in the world, and the price would at that point justify nearly any means necessary to put me in that position as Silver would be at least $150 an ounce by then.

    Could this explain the activity we have been seeing on the asian trading hours?

    Just thinking out loud.

    Happy mothers day everyone!

  58. I knew at least one sucker would support using that stuff.

  59. Great Post Turd!

    And a little reminder that the emailer's idea is not too far fetched as some may imagine. I note Great Panther's webstore is still "Out of Stock" likely due to readers on this blog taking action all at once.

    I wonder if Great Panther is aware of all the purchases that originated from this blog recently. The day when multiple mines attempt their own price discovery all at once will be interesting.

    I would tend to think that comex pricing would increase thereafter as any spec shorts would have to purchase/deliver physical at whatever pricing is the result of the miners price discovery. If it doesn't anyone with hald a brain would purchase from comex whatever is left and sell into the market until there was 0 oz's left in comex.

    Also, regarding Hong Kong. Interesting news but I'm not sure I see how another trading venue will impact the price of the underlying.

  60. Very interesting public comment from Ted Butler:

    Sorry, don't know how to hyperlink. Just cut and paste. It will be worth it.

  61. Black Hawk: Andrew Mguire now has a financial consulting company, I believe he charges $500 a month, and in exchange for that he offers real time updates on the signals he has learned to look for about beatdowns, essentially, he will tell you when to short. Here is a press release about it:

    and here is a link to the actual service:

    disclaimer: I don't subscribe but it sounds interesting.

  62. @BBL,
    For the same reason people like Goldman Sachs advise their clients to get out of commodities just to turn around a couple of weeks later and say they were wrong and that investors should think about getting back in. Considering it was GS, they sure seemed to have impeccable timing with that call as anyone who listened to them would have gotten out right before the commodity beat down and can now BTFD after selling near the top. Will we recover this lost month in silver prices just as quickly as it went down? Probably not, but absent any further margin hikes silver is most definitely going to start trending up again until the world economy is saved. I don't see that happening until the rest of the world drops the dollar and leaves us to bask in our own mess, can't say that I would blame them either.

    TBTB had a reason for smacking silver down, what that reason was we'll never know but we can speculate all we want. At the end of the day all we have are theories. What we do know is it took 5 margin hikes to get it to the price they wanted it. $36 was the magic number back when we first tested it according whoever the hell Wynter Benton was. I never bought in to that whole charade, but I can't help but acknowledge the fact we just witnessed the 4th largest correction in silver and it stopped right below $36. Coincidence? Perhaps, but definitely an extreme action by the CME to get the price down and take the rest of the commodity index with it. Nothing else has changed in the fundamentals, if anything they appear to be turning more in our favor long-term.

  63. @Mister - Hey I agree man, and my friends haven't been buying gold as they can't fucking afford it anymore, they feel they get one measly coin for a grand, which looks lousy. Even now, a grand buys a visual LOT of silver coins.

    The guys article was very well written, if way too long, but I feel if there really was that much physical silver available, we'd fucking well have seen it by now.

    Where are the examples of real stockpiles of verified silver if theres so much? Where have we seen any examples of longs taking delivery? Why did Sprott have so much grief sourcing physical?

  64. @kumanari 3:11

    Totally agree--great post!


    Fabulous information! U R right, keep it weekends only or it will get lost. Many thanks!

  65. posible explanation for many of Butler's question about why Silver consistently gets the short end of the stick is because the US gov holds what is probably the largest Gold reserve in the world. It has a vested interest in keeping investment interest low in silver and up in gold. That makes gold the only real game in town for hedging and protecting against a falling dollar and balooning deficits. I posted in the last blog about this so won't go into to details but it all makes sense. This could easily be seen as a move to that end by a gvmnt who benefits mainly from a rise in gold prices.

  66. This comment has been removed by the author.

  67. @ Catsenyu

    I see your point however if you look at oil and other commodities they have a couple of trading hubs. Gold and Silver are traded in Comex only (ok some in Shanghai I grant you, but it is not open to foreign investors). Hong Kong is planning to list its 1kg Gold Contract in USD and available to everyone. It s a very good development for the liquidity of the market and avoid the overnight atomic crash we saw some time ago.

    It would be interested to see how much margin they ask for. Also interestingly enough they plan to list other commodities and silver will be among them, it would be quite funny is they ask for less margin than COMEX.

    One thing to bear in mind is that it is difficult for Asian investors to invest in PMs as they trade on totally different time zones for now.. This should be a very good liquidity trigger, and in all honesty I dont see them going short...

  68. Sorry I'm not following the price discovery thing. FM is selling their silver at $5 over spot. You can go on ebay and see 100 oz bars selling for $37. True the maples and eagles are going for $45+ still but I think that just has to deal with the delay in receiving those particular coins. I think silver is still in a huge bull market. I just don't see the price separation from comex yet. I think psychologically people will have a hard time disassociating "spot" from real price for a little while. JMO

  69. CRIS--

    The Ted Butler piece was very worth it! He really sets out his case about why silver investors are being manhandled, explains why he originally put Gensler on a pedestal and why Gensler has to get his shit together now on what's going on...

  70. uptofreedom,

    I agree with your assessment about costata/FOFOA. They tend to look at the end game without any regard for how we get there. Even admitting they will be correct, its been 14 years since this ideology was put forward and we still haven't reached Another's $30,000 target.

    I have been investing for under two years and have roughly 1/3 gold and 2/3 silver. I have unrealized gains of hundreds in my gold and tens of thousands in my silver. There is no appreciation for silver's potential in the transition. I need to multiple my wealth with silver as I have almost none to preserve with gold.

    Nice to see others conversant in FOFOA. I love that stuff. I do find them persuasive, I wouldn't hold any gold but for them, but not convincing on all things.

  71. OC15

    the 100oz bars would be selling for $37 because it's a plain old bar of quantity size ... the maples and eagles on the other hand are 1oz strikes that are more costly to make than a 100oz pour ... it would seem this is just the beginning of a real price discovery where the metal gets disassociated from the paper. Much like commodities will more and more ignore the moves in the dollar.

  72. If dealers detach from spot price can somebody tell me what price they will give us when we want to sell our silver, i got a feeling they will want to give us spot but at the same time charging us way more when we want to but how will we be able to track the daily movement of the value of our silver?

  73. does anyone have a live silver chart for the chinese trading?

  74. A few days ago I commented on Pakistan being the blackest of swans.

    It's about to get interesting.

    U.S. Special forces go after.....give Pakistan Ultimatum

    In the wake of the Osama bin Laden operation, the US is sustaining the momentum of the war on terror by sending more Special Forces and drones into Pakistan after his top lieutenant, the Egyptian Ayman al Zawahiri, Taliban leader Mullah Omer and al Qaeda's chief operations officer, Seif al Adal.

    Counter-terror sources report that on May 2, the day bin Laden was killed, the Taliban leader and his top staff were thought to be in Karachi, southern Pakistan and the two al Qaeda leaders in the tribal region of North Waziristan. All three are presumed to have since moved on.

    US intelligence suspects their whereabouts are known to Pakistan's Inter-Services-Intelligence agency (ISI).

    Our Washington sources report that Saturday night, May 7, President Barack Obama gave the Pakistani government, army and intelligence an ultimatum: Cooperate in the capture of the three wanted men or else we shall pump more American soldiers into Pakistan to take up the pursuit with or without your permission....
    (con't @

  75. waffen...

    Then click "Instruments" and select your choice.

  76. waffen...

    sorry...first click the Charts tab, then after the graph loads choose Instruments and then silver, gold, etc.

  77. @Catseyenu,
    I've traded Tinka before, they have a great management team and have a lot going for them. They should be getting some drill's turning mid-Month after being rained out for a while. They definitely know how to put on a presentation though and that 3D video of what they're doing is bad-ass. They definitely got the bling factor going on with investor relations, which means they are more than likely building their business model around that going forward, that's definitely a big plus. I'll probably be looking to get back into them sometime after elections down there but before these drill results are released so probably sometime before summer is over.

    On a related note, it seems like a couple of miners I watch are blaming delayed drill results on the processing labs being slow and behind schedule. I'm sure the smack down in silver last week was enought to keep any miner from releasing results, hopefully the labs "sped up" and put in some overtime this weekend. I think miners have realized lately that these juniors only really move based on released results and news. Earnings reports should be coming out soon too and I'm sure all the un-hedged miners are going to have some nice numbers to release.

  78. My best guess for this week:

    Sunday: Rally in Asia to around the $37 Range

    Monday-Wednesday: A retest of the $33 range

    Thursday-Friday: Strong rally back to $37 where it slowly builds a base for the next bull run into the mid $50's over the next couple of weeks.

    Anyone else have a forecast they want to share?

  79. OC15,

    It may be that as silver rises in price, 100 OZ bars may need to be assayed to determine their purity. I have two and the stamp on them would be fairly easy to counterfeit. It's just not worth the trouble...yet.

    The coins will never raise this question upon a sale.

    I have started purchasing Franklin Halves. they have very little circulation and are identifiable at a glance, unlike Kennedys. I don't want to pay the premium on the nicer 1oz rounds and coins.
    I fully expect dealers to start weighing 90% silver coins upon a sale as it heads over $100 per oz. "Smothies' can be worth quite a bit less by weight.

    Looks like I better tun in to the markets...

  80. It seems clear that because the CME was part of the process to depress silver prices (and they were given the timing and lack of period given investors to adjust to the new margins) that the government was involved. I find it hard to believe that the CME would do this for any single business (independent of gvmnt involvement) or entity like a Goldman and certainly not a JPM even if they were hemorrhaging money on short options. A stunt like this could easily undermine their reputation and business but could lead to serious regulatory issues. No way they would risk that without government's blessing. No it seems logical they would only do this with political involvement so why was there political involvement? To me it seems very probable they did this to protect gold against rising silver as both compete for the same investment dollar. If gold doesn't continue to rise as the dollar falls then additional "economic bailout" would be hard to finance and even harder to justify.

    Obama sold his administration to the Wall Street bankers shortly after he took office. There's no doubt he will get reelected. The banks will make sure of it and have plenty of capital to do it with. That I'm sorry to say is probably just as written in stone as the direction of the SP market has been the last two years.

  81. Silver already making moves, up .20 since opening 13 minutes ago.

  82. CoinInfo. Messed up the code on that last one. I think I like watching the GSR on this site more than I do the spot change.

  83. So don't hold your breath for any real action from the CFTC. Lipservice perhaps but not anything that going to make a bit of difference.

  84. Strannick,

    Just letting the audience know about my experiences with the limited as it is. I have seen interviews with FM's CEO and he seems like a good guy. I just want to make sure people have information from all sides. :)

  85. Blythe

    I know, i know, this is trouble country, but, um, how to say, dammit, I am attracted to Blythe!!! I cant help it, horses for courses i guess.

    I like her feral smile, and kinda like her teeth. She has nice choppers, she does.

    Apparently she lives in this 10 million dollar apartmant in manhattan, that is so tasteful and cool, its a blowjob in itself.

    I apologise to the board, she kind of reminds me of my mother, abit of a severe face that may in fact be it,i have considered letting her spank me, thats sorta ok, but i think its a bj that interests me most.

    What would ramp up the stakes is, well, when it gets underway, consider the stakes,what if she got mad at Turd ferguson halfway through the process, then , in all modesty, i have a rather large problem, about to be a very small one.

    Not to be confused with our respective market positions, me and Blythe.

  86. Today in India – the world’s No.1 private gold buyer each year –”The weakening trend has hardly impacted retailers activity” ahead of tomorrow’s peak spring gold buying festival, says one Delhi-based jeweler, speaking to the Economic Times.

    Indian& Chinese Money “Buys the Bloodbath” in Gold& Silver

  87. Here is an HD video of the unboxing of First Majestic silver straight from FM. Not my video, found it a while back when I was looking for a vendor. I've never ordered from them, but the quality looks good and their packaging suggests they value their product, each order even comes with a spec card, something my vendor doesn't do...

  88. Vamoose..get in line dude. She's probably lived your fantasy again and again to get where she is. You don't think she got there on her college degree alone do you? It's still and will always will be a man's world (no offense to the fairer sex but it just is..sorry)

  89. whoever steps in right now as a long got balls of steel.

  90. US Eagles are going for 44-46 each on EBAY tonight.

    Price discovery!

  91. @Brian

    RE: CME actions. I am not saying the government was not involved, after all they have to stop those evil "speculators", right? But I don't think it is at all a necessary ingredient. The COMEX will do pretty much whatever its biggest members (IE: JPM) ask it to do.

  92. A lot of people disregard that we are also in the midst of a Double Dip in housing.

    QE3 noise should star getting louder toward the end of May.

    Stay Vigilant.

  93. I just heard about HKMEX (Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange) to compete with COMEX. Good. Check ZeroHedge for more info.

  94. "The price of silver going forward will be measured by the PREMIUM."

    If this continues it's the beginning of the black market evaluation of the dollar; at the 'official' rate, $35.50 buys an ounce of silver, but physical silver purchases require a $4-5 premium, say $40-41 and up for premium coins.

    35.50 FRN dollars only buy .9 oz. physical Ag, and are thus discounted some 10%.

    I hope the 'street price' premium continues, and goes higher. And the paper tigers find they have lost their teeth.

  95. So how many believe we will see a retest of 33 before we see 40 say AYE!

    I got no clue, but i'm curious what people think.

  96. oldNavy..that could be. I am not as familiar with the relationship between COMEX and it's largest members. However that might be more probable if the COMEX was not part of the CME group. As COMEX actions now relfect on CME's ownership the incentives to oblige large COMEX members are less than they would be if the COMEX were standalone, I think. I'm not saying things have changed at the COMEX becuase I am not familiar with the culture there past or present, but given CME involvement the risks for such manipulation without gvmnt's blessing could be substantial.

  97. aye

    which you should all use as a contrary indicator...

  98. don't mean to be negative, but why do I feel like a deer in the headlights w/ the phys. i bought from 28$ on?
    What are others thoughts about a possible partial recovery in silver price, followed by an even deeper pull back?
    Maybe I have been reading some "bad" info...
    MSM reports today .50 cent drop at the gas pump by June...

  99. Be careful, last week's massive selloff indicates a trend change. Silver could eventually see $20-25. I'm thinking that is a likely target.

  100. @Brian, Yukon and other "followers/advocates" of FOFOA,

    I think that this argument which leads to the conclusion that silver is the "wrong metal" to be invested in is fundamentally flawed. The first fundamental flaw is in the estimate of the amount of silver in the world -- FOFOA estimate is WAY too high. The second is the entire way the argument is constructed -- it smacks of reverse engineering rather than working from first principle forward.

    Look I am not going to go into a detailed blow by blow deconstruction.

    Let's just say I am always skeptical of people who cannot make their point simply. I am also always skeptical of people who call out other analysts (as they call out Butler) to make their point.

    Obviously, you all can beleive who you want to beleive. I will admit that there is enough food for thought in FOFOA/Costata's arguments to make me reconsider what my allocation should be between gold and silver, in favor of adding more gold.

    But to totally discount silver as they do is foolhardy IMHO.

    And I also think the type of haughty, almost arrogant tones taken by some of the supporters of FOFOA's argument is somewhat distasteful. It's almost like they are saying "Oh you poor fools who believe in silver, you are so misguided; let us educate you".

    Silver investors are in general some of the most educated, savvy and inherently contrarian investors out there. This idea that we/they need to lectured to is silly.

    Let's exchange ideas for sure; but NO ONE has a monopoly on the truth.

    Perhaps I am being sensitive; if so, allow me to apologize in advance. But for instance, Yukon came on recently and was like -- "I am going to post here one last time in the hopes that you people finally understand." That's just a bit patronizing, and I don't think that has any place in an educated discussion.

  101. Anyone holding ZSL as a hedge?

  102. Regarding First Maj I can tell you from first hand experience these guys are the real deal. My purchases from them go back at least 2 years and every purchase was dealt with promptly and professionaly. My bullion dealer here in Edmonton accepts them no questions asked. Minted by NWT Mint they are .999 rather than the .9999 grading of the Canadian Maples if that matters.

  103. Re: Butler's public commentary

    Whatever perspective you are coming from, I think it was valuable for Butler to point out this is really a matter of LAW.

    And if there is a rule of LAW in this country, the CFTC had better step up.

    If they don't, well then we will know there is not a rule of law any longer, and that is a very significant thing to understand. When it comes down to it, if our worst suspicions are true, and there is no rule of LAW, then the issues around silver are really just the tip of the iceberg.

    Prepare accordingly.

  104. Sorry Brian, just joking on Sun Aft. Serious lady.Probably blew more people than Dr. |Goodrich.



    This situation we find ourselves in began at the CFTC Hearings in March 2010, Silver is drifting at 18. Its kinda ZZZZZZ.

    Bill Murphy, Adrian Douglas, and Harvey organ, were present, including Jeff Christian of CPM, who directly owns 50 dollar silver 10 days ago. Why Jeff Christian is not at the bottom of the Potomac in the heavy footwear utterly escapes me. I do thank you jeff

    The subtext to this March 2010 CFTC hearing, where they pretend to being doing their jobs, was one Andrew McGuire, an LBMA silver trader, who evidently had a crise de conscience, this was the February 2010 JPM raid on silver , who told a CFTC investigator , WATCH THIS, and kept him on the phone as the JPM takedown unfolded. In real time.Atomic guy. Not only was he not invited to the Hearing of march 10 2010, he was almost killed ikn a car accident the next day. I am sending since i get cut off for some reason.

    Murphy and Douglas

  105. Part Deux.

    WEll Christian, a well known shill for the silver shorts, got miffed at the hearing, i have never been sure if he drinks or cokes, but since he doesnt vomit on himself, I assume coke. But He certainly loses his judgement, and informed the hearing, and proudly, that the LBMA shorted up to 100 silver contracts for every physical ounce owned.

    That in fact they were running afractional reserve banking system in both metals, with wild leverage, a normal bank might go 12 to 1, but 100 to one asks for trouble. They found it.

  106. @ Chris,

    "Let's just say I am always skeptical of people who cannot make their point simply."

    I believe that Occam's razor (or for latin buffs, lex parsimoniae) may apply here.

  107. My eye twitch tells me DXD short term is a nice insurance position.

  108. @ Beanie

    Nice try sir, your specific price range of a +/- $5 range without any evidence besides a lack of understanding of what caused the selloff (margin hikes + panic selling perpetuated by group think and fear) certainly gives you credence. I appreciate the amount of time you put into your analysis to come up with this uniquely new and constructive viewpoint.

    @ Cris

    Well stated, I really enjoyed reading this post. I have a rule... anyone who tells me "This is for your own good." Or, "I just know better than you...." are viewpoints to always take with extra scrutiny. I have found when these types of lines are used, the users of these self-doubt triggering slogans leads oneself to be vulnerable to illogic based on irrational fear. It is best to judge for oneself, and not worry about what others think about (as hard as that is to do sometimes).

    Thank you for sharing these thoughts.


  109. The equities market is actually holding up quite well in spite of the plunge in commodities:

    Semis and tech appear to be the ones on verge of breakout to take the general market higher.

    I've said many times now (except the last few weeks when precious metals were getting a boner) that we get the last mega bull market in tech into 2016-2018 before precious metals re-emerge and the entire financial system collapses. The recent crash in pm's and commodities is what the next bull market in tech has been waiting for. It happened last week. You should see a big rally in tech this coming week.

    Pm's are weaker than I thought. I thought they would gap higher tonite and run to $40 Monday-Wednesday. But futures are down as I type this.

  110. an interesting array of speculation regarding this fm info.......

    the very fact that it commands its own special thread is somewhat disturbing,however the unknown 2 some could be perceived as a possible truth discovery...

    since a long time purchaser from fm, i can be very confident that they just havent lowered the price yet...its their mo

  111. Dr J.

    I've been watching the Franklin and Kennedy halves and they seem to be going for around $280.00 a roll which is around the spot price of $38.70.

  112. About buying coins and bullion on eBay... I find it a bit disturbing that there are so many electroplated fakes, or "replicas" as they call them, being sold right along side the real items.

    Ones like this are obvious to anyone who knows bullion...

    ...But I have seen others that could fool an inexperienced buyer. And, as the prices of both gold and silver rise the temptation is greater than many scoundrels can bear.

    If you need a place to buy and sell safely at fair prices you are better off using a dedicated bullion products exchange like Bullion Direct's Nucleo...

    You will get better prices and you will know that what you are getting is genuine. It will have been checked for you.


  113. I went to a coin show here on the West Coast yesterday and talked to about a half a dozen dealers. There was a room full of dealers there, probably 30 or so. There were plenty of good deals on gold but silver was pretty scarce and some of it was priced way over current interenet type prices. When I asked the dealers about the high prices they said they would rather wait than take a loss on the silver they purchased recently. So then I asked well are you selling any at this price and they said not really and that was the point, it was mostly just to fill the display cases. There were small amounts of silver (90% and silver dollars, generic rounds) available at 2-3 dealers at reasonable premiums and when I spoke to those dealers they said it was stock they had been sitting on for awhile so could let it go for some cash flow instead of waiting to see if prices went back up. Not sure what to make of this sample of one show but it was definately different than the shows I was going to last season...

  114. Part Trois

    Everyone here knows, or should, the silver market is a mouser, its tiny, as proven by the HUnts in 1980, when above ground silver supplies were 8 times the present.

    In other words do the math, if the above ground silver supply is down 90 percent since 1980, and 2 bozos from Texas rammed silver to 50 then, which is 140 in 2011 dollars, then sharp eyes narrow.

    Sharp eyes narrowd in the summer of 2010, a hundred to one eh? and, importantly its far more easy now, there was no 100 to one silver fractional banking system containing the silver price in 1980.

    A clarification. An engineered corner has elements of immorality to it, ... its borderline crooked .what the Hunts did was a blatant manipulation of a peanut sized market,and they ended up ruined in bankruptcy in 1988. That might not have been wrong. In a moral sense.

    WE do have a corner in silver today.... A SHORT CORNER of manifestly equivalent crimina lity. But here i refer to JPM on the short side, not PSLV.

  115. @ save america first

    thanks so much for the chart. I can't say the activity is very encouraging. When is China going to go on the buying spree? They musnt be concerned with shortage I guess :(

  116. Shill...

    that DXD is interesteing...the 2008 crash pushed it up to 111.
    Once QE2 is stopped there should be a mini crash of maybe 1500 to 3000 in the DOW which could pop DXD up to maybe 3 to 4x's current price of 16 now.
    Then QE3 or whatever would be initiated and then would be a time to sell DXD.

  117. Dr. J

    44-46 ... price discovery ... quite right ...

    Question ... would you part with your physical silver right now for $35? I wouldn't and I don't think anyone who understands silver would ... I have held mine since 2005 ... no matter what ... I count it as old money ... there will come a time I will let go but that is far off for now.

  118. Part Quatre.
    Silver stayed comparatively quiet until August 2010, Go look at the chart, and then started to stir.

    Now there was a Gold ETF called PHYS, same bat time , same bat channel, PHYSICAL, METAL, none of this paper horseshit, issued by Sprott Securities and approved by the SEC in Prospectus form, it appeared inn ocuous, they approved it. They did 300 of their billion shelf, no problem.

    AND THIS IS WHERE THE ERROR OCCURRED. Sprott looked at the approval, took due notice of a 100 to 1 fractional banking racket in silver and said, holy good jesus. And i add, this is no dodgy corner, this is recognizing the relative depth of the silver market relative to gold, probably one 50 th and, exploiting market realities. The fractional reserve bankers had become fat stupid and arrogant.

    Enter PSLV. Enter PSLV. EXcept he started accumulating silver in August, knowing he would move the market. And he did.

    He siimply struck out the word Gold from the heretofore harmless PHYS Prospectus and substitued the word SILVER. This is where trouble begins.

  119. @ vamoose,
    I'm a firm believer in the fractional reserve metal trade, no way in hell they didn't try to maximze gains in this sector and if fractional reserve shenanigans work with fiat money, no reason for them to not do the same with real stores of wealth to increase their fiat wealth.

    The game changed for them when people and countries started to take delivery of their investments rather than accept I.O.U.'s. But, I guess if you want to buy physical and have someone else hold it for you, JP Morgan now has their own vault and will gladly "store" it for you to keep the ponzi going. JP Morgan obtaining a vault license in 2 days, JP Morgan supposedly having a massive short position that screwed them big time above $36/ounce silver and higher, silver getting margin hiked all the way back to just below $36 by the JP Morgan controlled CME, Hong Kong telling the Comex to kiss their ass and are starting their own metals platform, a University investing $1 billion total in Gold, countries increasing their PM holdings lately like the shit is going out of style...yeah, I tend to watch what the big boys do rather than listen to what they say publicly or the fear they try to invoke in the PM trade by smashing the prices down when all indicators point to their inevitable rise, thanks to our inflation exporting government.

    The CFTC has proven which side they are on, and it ain't ours. The CME is a joke as well, creating huge volatility supposedly to end the volatile movements in silver. That makes perfect sense if you are a banker or insider that stands to gain from it, the rest of us become collateral damage in the mean time. Extend and pretend is the only thing this country has going for it, and it is the only choice they have at this point which will come to an end eventually, all ponzi's do.

  120. Cinque.

    WEll, my guess is that SEC was gulled by the harmless similarity of the Prospectuses , the fact that PHYS was non market moving so why should this billion dollar physical silver shelf be a problem since the other one was a yawn.Well one market, the gold market is pretty deep, and the silver market is a pinocle game in your local tavern.Big Big BIg Big error at SEC, that clerk is probably with the fishes too. 580 Million went out the window, wildly oversubscribed, fully green shoed, at the now 24 in November, which is why I now call it a perfectly appropriate, inadvertent silver corner. There was no goddamned silver, no PHYSICAL silver!!!

  121. @Cris, re: FOFOA (and sycophants)... exactly

    Costata's lengthy "silver is a pump and dump" piece moves from point to point, injecting arrogant negativity whenever possible, trying create a stew of doubt ~ without actually selling any of it... pure biased conjecture, while ignoring many elements/fundamentals in the dynamic that lead to accumulating physical and investing in the miners.

  122. Chin,
    No, I would not part.

    I bought it as "insurance" against an economic collapse. At 16/1 I'll trade it for gold and keep holding. I could be persuaded to trade for land.

  123. @ Those saying commodities/equities dump then QE III announcement.

    I ask, do you really think king Bernanke is going to let the ship crash into an iceberg just as all of their hard work "stabilizes?" I don't think they can afford the luxury of a massive equities sell-off at this point in the game.

    We have to remember that as new policies come into play, new perceptions of these policies also make their way into the collective consciousness. I think it would be pretty hard for Bernanke to try to convince the world that QE III would "fix it all" after a rinse and repeat crash of 08. For this reason, I don't see it happening... but I definitely see the argument for both sides.

    My take is the world didn't like QE I, and QE II solidified the viewpoint that the Federal Reserve would stop at nothing to prolong their ponzi scheme while they let the macro-scene play out (incoming loss of civil liberties in the name of security... more). I think that any announcement of QE III will trigger a dollar sell-off (I don't care about the DXY, I am talking about trust of the dollar), and the very real potential of the concerns of hyper-inflation to start creeping into main street.

    I think it deserves quite a bit of thought about how the WORLD market would take QE III announcement given the fiscal abyss America is trapped within currently...

    Personally, I think the stock market will be melting "up up and away," but in nominal terms, not real. The DXY does not have to be tanking to have massive inflation hit the US... as the DXY is a measure of relative strength verse other identical/similar central bank fiat ponzi schemes around the world (Yen, Euro, GBP, Federal Reserve Note). All fiat currency that encourages reckless money creation will lead to inflation, and the announcement of QE III will not have the same impact as QE I or QE II.

    In this case, I think "the law of diminishing returns" is indeed reversed, as each effort to "rescue" the economy will be seen exponentially more damaging to long-run stability, ultimately leading in a flight from the US Dollar. This day is coming in the not to distant future...

    That is unless Bernanke has some other tricks up his ass....

    But as far as my current opinion goes... the stock market will keep rising until it does not. There is no room for it to do anything else, as it is the only thing being pointed at with any "sign of success."

    P.S. --> They will not call it QE III, and it may not be made public. We will find out soon enough though, so b est to just wait and stay diligent.

  124. Cris..point taken. I guess this is what makes a horse race a difference in views. I did not reach my conclusion after reading the article but after just thinking about where the incentives lie. I do not agree with Rush Limbaugh on much other than it’s always about the money, even when they say it’s not it almost always still is. And given the context here in this topic, it just underscores the point more so – it’s about the money. As I said in my original post about this (Sat blog), fundamentals may be driving the market to a degree but silver fundamentals have been around a long time and have failed to produce the kind of pricing power gold has. Gold plays and has played a big role in the development and solvency of this country and probably continues to do so. It thus has national security/national financing implications more than people realize. We know for a fact there are untold reserves of gold around the country. Not that the US doesn’t have silver reserves but I would bet a lot far more gold. In fact, as the world’s #1 superpower we likely have a sh!tload. So if you’re the US gvmnt which metal would you rather see go up gold or silver? And knowing that your currency value will fall as more liquidity is added to the economy but gold is expected to rise, don’t you think that factors into any calculations when determining how much financing the country can afford? I think it would. These people are not dumb/or indifferent or are allowed traits that would undermine the security of the country. They may work inside the system to enrich their personal fortunes, but at some level the country comes first otherwise the system would have fallen apart a long time ago. Thus any activity like a parabolic silver market that diminishes gold’s value, takes away investment interest in gold and a government’s ability to afford more spending in a time of crisis, could be seen as threat? Could it not? If not to the country than to an administration’s goals that's convinced it’s doing the right thing. These are all powerful incentives to manipulate silver to drive investment towards gold. Those gold reserves at Fort Knox can only benefit and offer the gvmnt more spending flexibility. It’s such a simple idea perhaps too simple but it makes sense.

  125. six.

    WEll how did the actual deliveries go tothe Royal Canadian Mint vaults in Ottawa? The isuue closed in November 2010, so chop chop Comex, here is your money, give us our metal.

    Like i said, this is no conventional corner, this is a simple recognition that 100 to 1 fractional reserve banking is a bit hazardous. You get your ass handed to you, so we rocket into the 30s in silver, go look at the relentless progression of this chart on silver.
    ITS ABOUT PSLV who who the lid off the racket.

    FebruARY 28 2011,, 90 day AFTER THE ISSUE CLOSED Sprotts sharp eyed auditors counting in those bars at the Royal Canadian Mint closed thee books on 580 million dollars of physical silver delivery requirements, paid for 3 MONTHS BEFORE. The bars were all NEW!!!!!

    Some , figuratively still warm, they had just refined from the mines!!!

    Is there any physical at the Comex???????

    I will now take a short break, because the story now turns almost unimaginably insiduous.

  126. To Justin

    Just a great post.

  127. The short crowd that was hoping for a re-run of last sunday night might soon begin to cover. Just keep in mind i got no idea of what i'm talking about.

  128. Morgan Stanley follows Goldman, downgrades economy.

    Fundamentals galore today, the S&P downgrade apparently has some bandwagon hoppers now.

    POSX already starting to give back some of the gains from last week, especially now that the rumors of Greece leaving the Eurozone have been proven false after being touted to rally the Dollar on Friday in the midst of a commodity beat down.

    "Be fearful when others are greedy and get greedy when others are fearful."

  129. Dr. J

    we think a like ... I knew your answer ... just making a point about price discovery ... you understand the silver and gold dynamic so maybe this little discussion back and forth helps OC15 understand price discovery a little better.

  130. Re this HK gold futures exchange news.

    Why does everyone think it's good news? (Because ZH said so?)

    Ask yourself these questions:

    1. Which country has a very small gold position and wants to increase it massively?

    2. Which country therefore has a strongly vested interest in keeping the gold price low in order to continue to accumulate at a below fair market price?

    3. Hong Kong is a city in which country?

    4. COMEX has shown the world the template for how to manipulate PM prices - why wouldn't China want to join that game?

  131. PAAS also sells silver. Looks like a cheaper price then Majestic.

  132. Jimmy

    stick around man ... honest and upfront people are always appreciated :D

  133. Silver Insidious 1.

    Five margin lifts in 21 days. Thats very businesslike, including after a 33 percent TAKEDOWN. Anyone in doubt that the CFTC is a straightforward criminal organization, do you have a sister?

    Now hear this, i said insidious.

    Suddenly our redoubtable PSLV scoots to a 24 percent premium!!!

    KIndly be serious, ETfs do not go to 24 percent premiums, particularly when the underlying product has just been nailed for 33 percent. Arguably the related panid would produce a DISCOUNT as people panic out of PSLV.

    I hope none of the people on this board is under any illusion other than that this is a very very very dirty game.

    But PSLV crucified the silver market by exposing the fractional reserve racket, and took us to 50.

    Evem worse... They have another 420 million left to offer on an open prospectus!!! That could put Jamie Dimon panhandling in the Bronx.

    What to do? Ram PSLV to a 25 percent premium!!!
    WEll how does he do the unspent part of his issue now?? Who is going to pay the equivalent of 62.50 for 49 dollar silver? So much for that problem, there will be no followup PSLV issue.

    Does it cost JPM money, look if you are down , pick it, 8 billion, 10 billion do you fucking care if you lose 200 million holding PSLV at an unmarketable price, its a loss leader, cheap at the price. 80 dollar silver would cost you 10 billion.

    As stated, this is some dirty game, we are dealing with unabashed criminals, even after 40 years of this shit , i sit somewhat stunned at these things, but is silver going higher. My children, silver goes higher, there IS NO FUCKING PHYSICAL SILVEROUT THERE ACCORDINGLY < BUMPS NOTWITHSTANDING < WE WILL OBLITERATE THE 50 , it will be a 3 digit number.Love your wife, kiss your children, honour thy mother from whose very body you came.

  134. @Cris

    FOFOA and his supporters have this belief it's a bunch of giants controlling the future system with gold while forcing the general public to keep using FIAT as money so they wanna align their strategies with it.

    To me the future will be in the hands of BRICGAC (G for Germany, A for Australia and C for Canana), or in other words, the productive group of nations rather than some mysterious "giants" from deeply indebted nations that are clearly losing their grip of the current system. So while I listen to their points I always regard their reasoning as flawed.

  135. @ Turdle

    Why would China want to try to squeeze every oz of gold by extending and pretending helping the United States remain solvent. Could Hong Kong's exchange be this new sovereign fund which was reported around the time the news about China wanting to reduce their US Treasury holdings to $1Trillion.

    "China's central bank is considering setting up new investment funds to diversify holdings in the country's swelling foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest stockpile, local media reported on Monday.

    Gold Bricks
    The proposed funds include one or more to invest a part of China's foreign reserves in energy and precious metal markets and another that could intervene in foreign exchange markets, the New Century Weekly said, citing sources close to the central bank."


    This makes more sense to me as I am sure that China is tired of watching New York Bankers petily run the show with their CRIMEX facilities. To me, 5094 contracts covered by Wednesday (and yet to be reported Thursday and Friday having some more being covered) by commercial banks last week tells the story. Remember, they can fudge these numbers, which means they may have covered even more than that if the story Justin presented is actually happening.

    This could be the "short covering" during the most legendary pullback yet. While everyone was panicking and being forced to liquidate, there were large amounts of contracts ready to be gobbed up by the bankers on a constant discount for 4 days.

    I think things are about to get real..


    Fantastic theory, wonderful grasp of the possibilities that could potentially exist. I too think that looking at the "big picture" is most important. Thank you for a great post.

    The future is here. It's just not widely distributed yet." -William Gibson

    Scott J

  136. SilverDog, as I've said before, I just don't trust silver like I trust gold. Last week is a prime example of why. The downside volatility is heartbreaking. And I'm no longer convinced of large-scale supply problems, nor of a significant looming short squeeze.

    But I don't need the JPM short story, or the Comex default story, or an immediate scarcity story. I bought my silver as an inflation hedge, and to that end, it continues to perform very well. I am still very long silver. I believe it has more upside than gold over the next few months/years. As we both agree, it's a hell of a lot easy to acquire for Average Joe - again, it's the poor man's gold.

  137. Scottj88,

    "Why would China want to try to squeeze every oz of gold by extending and pretending helping the United States remain solvent."

    -- China still holds too many Treasuries. They have to keep the US solvent for some time yet.

    "Could Hong Kong's exchange be this new sovereign fund which was reported around the time the news about China wanting to reduce their US Treasury holdings to $1Trillion."

    -- No. It's just an exchange.

  138. I think it's a bad idea to try and force prices in the direction we think they should go. There is no logical reason to depart from the COMEX spot price unless you hate cheap prices. If indeed the COMEX has no silver, eventually the prices will depart from the spot price on their own. Why force it, it only makes it more expensive for us. Dealers are already adjusting their premiums on their own.

  139. @ Turdle

    I suppose you are correct. I wonder if China really cares about its holdings, I just don't think they want to be seen as the country that took down the US (leaving them as a culprit for a desperately seeking common enemy by the Western Banking Cartel). I think China is battling for power against the bankers, and are strategically playing their cards to have it unfold in their best interest, rather than to maximize wealth.

    One thing is for sure, there will be a new paradigm and meaning to "afthours." Overnight trading could become bigger than New York trading. Will definitely be something to watch.

  140. Turd,

    Is it me, or is silver's strong alpha back? I think I see it leading gold in it's moves starting this evening. Please write back if you think Gold is still going to be the leading PM.

  141. My dealer has 1oz Austrians in stock for under $40.00

  142. . . . . . but, is there really a silver shortage?:

  143. humahuaca said...

    So the offer price is now the 'real' price of silver, even if there are no bids there?

    No, the buy price is the physical price. If the local realtor claims that your friend house is only worth 200K but he sells it for 1 million, what is the true value of the home?


    Honestly people, Im still accumulating. Lets keep the price as low as possible. We are not selling any time soon anyway, who cares how cheap its priced at by the CRIMEX?

  144. @Fofoa comments

    Imo the best thing to take away from Fofoa is his arguments for hyperinflation over deflation. It is a very interesting debate.

    Fofoa has likely made up his mind about silver for good and whether or not freegold will occur is unprovable. However, he does offer one vision of the future, which people can digest for themselves as its almost impossible to summarize all the points/counterpoints that have been made over the several year life of his blog.

    Personally, I thnk a return to a hard money standard is just as likely as freegold, but it will take fiscally responsible politicians. If the status quo continues, then maybe we get freegold. Or maybe we just continue the status quo and eventually get a solid economic recovery.

  145. Rui,

    Do you not think that the US, the largest holder of gold in the world, will not deploy it at some future date to either (1) eliminate dollar debt or (2) back a new currency? I think this is inevitable. The demise of the US is greatly exaggerated.

  146. If you like FOFOA, don't forget "Flow Of Value" (formerly FOFOFOA):

  147. mc2560 - the sucker is the one that talks about shit they dont know about like you. so dont be an idiot.

  148. vamoose, best posts I've seen from you thus far. Things everyone should know.

  149. I think this is already happening to a certain extent on other sites like Bullion Direct. During the depths of this "crash" I never saw any form of physical silver get lower than ~36/oz.

  150. vamoose ...

    keep going with the posts buddy ... we are listening.

  151. Within the next 5 days we will all know if Evil was for real or not.

  152. @ Berkshire,

    Why? What did "Evil" say about the next 5 days? (sorry I haven't kept up with that).

  153. cris,

    in respect of the Butler article, even if Gensler had no clue, you, I & everyone on this street corner know the rule of law was thrown out the window a long time ago. Post-hoc investigations that lead nowhere and/or take a decade to complete would lend credence to this view. Likely the only way the truth comes out is if they want the truth to come out. As for Gensler, we'd all bet he cannot address Butler's questions honestly and transparently anytime soon, if ever. No, if Gensler's the character guy Butler believes/believed him to be, it is likely his only option is to resign.

    silverblev, as for Maguire, he'll be speaking at this conference, the whose who of the real money crowd:

    vamoose, great posts. You have a talent imo for mystery storytelling :)

  154. China has gone from being an exporter of PM's and rare earth elements to being an importer. They currently hold 97% of the rare earth market and are cornering it and there isn't a damned thing the US can do to stop them when they run a monopoly in that sector and all of their resources are domestic.

    If I held the majority of US debt(assuming we don't count the Federal Reserve as our largest debt holder) I would want to build up my inventory of real wealth through PM's and rare earths before unloading all of my foreign debt holdings that are becoming even more worthless due to the debtor(US) printing more debt. China is only a few years away from taking over as the world economic powerhouse, I highly doubt that they would begin a fractional reserve metal market when they are working so hard to build up their inventory and resources. They have seen the route we have taken and are learning from it, expecting them to plant the seeds for self-destruction this early in their super power birth would be to underestimate them and their long term strategy when they hold all of the cards right now. It's not a matter of "if" they dump our debt into the market, it's "when". They technically own this country right now and there is no doubt in my mind that we have to ask them for permission before we do anything when it comes to debasing our currency. If they are on board with it, it's because they are already hedging against it and I'm willing to bet dollars against donuts that there will be no fractional reserve resource trading in their new gold trade or the other metals that enter that market soon after. At least not for now. Greed will eventually get the best of them, but we'll all be long gone before that happens. Empires only last 200 years on average, we are three decades beyond that historic average and they are just at the beginning of theirs.

    Gold Holdings By Country

    That's assuming we hold the reserves we claim to be holding and that China only has the reserves they claim to.

    China holds 97% of Rare Earths

    There's no denying the fact China owns the rare earth sector and there is no denying that rare earths are essential in everything from batteries, to hybrid motors, to green energy to electronics and military applications. Last year China said they would be reducing rare earth exports by 10% this year. Once this year arrived, they actually reduced rare earth exports by 35% in just the first quarter. China isn't dumb, China sees the writing on the wall and is preparing accordingly.

    @ Scott,
    Now that you are back posting, just wanted to thank you for putting Revett on our radar a few months back. That has been a favorite watch list miner for me since you mentioned it and I finally hopped in this past Friday after much delay and DD. Their news release on Friday before the markets closed and the NYSE listing tomorrow hopefully will help that one get to the level it should be trading at. You truly are a great asset to this community and it shines through in your postings by way of the rationale and quality they contain, us regulars look forward to you chiming in when you do. Keep up the good work boss.

    @ vamoose,
    I labeled you as a troll when you first started posting here and tended to ignore your posts. Seeing my train of though fall in line with yours tonight has me wondering if maybe I drank to much today, but you obviously are aware of the fundamentals and the corruption taking place by those who are supposed to be looking out for us. Gotta give you respect there.

  155. Justin,

    You said:

    "China is only a few years away from taking over as the world economic powerhouse..."

    couldn't agree more & reminds me of Armstrong's articles of the natural and inevitable shifts in power structures, financial centres, etc. The HKMex release is imo another step in that direction.

  156. Justin

    I heard Dine talking about the rare earth metals group today on KWN ... any respectable companies out there ? I will do my DD ..



  157. Molly- Mercenery geologist guy puts out some interesting ideas /information

  158. Thank you silver bleve, i really just try, this silver market is a mystery in a riddle wrapped in an enigma to paraphrase churchill, but there are malicious cats involved here.

    There are really only 3 "dangerous" ETfs out there in precious metals, all, for some reason are canadian.

    Two are from Sprott, PHYS, the physical gold, and one called Central Fund,a gold/ silver hybrid, that used to be 60/ 40 gold, but is now about 60/ 40 in favour of silver due to silvers outperformance.

    If you were running a gold and silver fractional reserve banking racket, assuming that "nobody" asks for physical due to the inconvenience, and lets concede its been fabulously profitable over the years for these banksters, these are the three trouble makers.

    Central Fund is very quiet. The sponsors, the Spicers in Toronto, look, if they are dishonest, and i was in this business since since 1964 as a high school student, then i give up. I am just going to tell you their integrity has never remotely been questioned since i believe 1920. 1920, we are coming up on 100 years, so if they say they hold physical, cmon, lets be serious, or the earth is flat.

    Suddenly last week, coincident with these brytally strategic margin hikes , the rumor mill opined that CEF had paper gold and silver, driving it to an 8 percent discount.

    I think either me or my late family has held CEF , modestly, for about 50 years, it has never had a discount like that. NEVER.

    Please listen, we put PSLV out of business as an issuer by ramming it to a 20 percent premium.

    The other potential issuer is Central Fund, these are the only guys that get "physical' and they are radioactive to the thieves.

    But in 40 years in this infernal business, Central Fund does not dilute its shareholders, its an article of faith every prospectus has always said, this price, IS NON DILUTIVE TO EXISTING SHAREHOLDERS. And it never is.

    And suddenly we get an 8 percent discount i have not seen in 40 years? So they cannot do an issue of physical either.

    Pardon my french, what the fuck is this.

    Um, this is rampant criminality, its also redolent of utter desperation.

    My purpose here is not to try to be clever, the thing is so opaque, and so complex, its like a rubics cube.

    My conclusion is sell down to the sleeping point. Particularly the stocks, which are yet another manipulation story.

    You hold your physical silver, if they were to put it into the 20s which i doubt , my stock proceeds go metal. Bits and pieces, the coins are great. Take a deep breath and pay the premium, what you want is the flexibility of small denominations.

    For you big boys, an 1000 ounce bar is 62 pounds................. i am not unfamiliar with them, I have also had a hernia operation, nor am i young and silver is hugely problematical in that size,they nail you on the coins, fine, bend over and say England. It only happens once!!!

  159. Every active trader with a bit of real money in the game, should stand for a contract.. They only have 6500 left for gods sake..

    If just a few 100 of us stand for a contract or two, we pretty much guarantee our own returns.

    We need to stop paying the premiums to buy on the open market, and make them deliver.

  160. This comment has been removed by the author.

  161. Justin

    Thank you for your generosity, what i actually did was say i do not like vertical parabolas, i am in fact 100 percent with the concept, i just did not like that ugly vertical upward line on the chart. I think i said 34......... well, I lost more than anyone on this board . Temporarily. I am unconcerned. Just poorer.

    Perhaps its instructive to distinguish between well intentioned caution, and true trolls, who i agree are definitely out there.

    Be assured i got smashed pretty good. AS did we all.

    So thats fine we dont sweat the small stuff. And thank you for that.

    Much more important is what happens now.

    Could these criminals nail this into the 20s.

    My opinion, such as it may be, thats the washout, the low is in. They will not break 30 with their bullshot currency.

    I actually think we have these people fucked, in my world Eric Sprott is God, do you hobnob, not remotely, im a one trick one man pony, but i have met him often , and if he says cool your jets, this is 3 figures for silver , thats good enough for me. Here is an eric Sprott story for you to illustrate his character. Are there any billionaires you might not think were bandits???? Try this then.

    he is now about 70, and at this age , and i am not far behind him, you see the finish line and ask yourself, did i ever do anything that matters? . Money begins to become secondary, It actually becomes somewhat serious to leave something of yourself, , since we leave the world as naked as we came.

    I am canadian, so Peter Munk of the gold company Barrick, has a WING of the Toronto general Hospital named after him, a big one. The other honchos do the same and get buildings at University of Toronto, all of it is pure prestige. Pure ego.

    But not Sprott, he put his name and gave a fortune to a lets face it pretty dodgy community college, with nationwide campuses, it was called Devry College, now its Sprott College.

    Its all immigrants, nobodies, can barely speak english, just ambitious kids, with dreams, but as you know some of them will split the proverbial atom, much like America when it started. These kids do the startups that employ 100 thousand people in 20 years, does Eric Sprott have a bit of an ego problem. hahahahahaha, he is so far beyond ego , i bow in fealty. He could give a flying.

  162. Your braggadocio is what rubs me the wrong way, vamoose. Your net worth is not relevant, and it does not lend you any credibility. People who boast about their wealth tend to be either bullshitters, or arrogant douchebags. Just gotta point that out.

    WWESD? (What Would Eric Sprott Do?) He would not be continually pointing out that he has more silver than the rest of the board.

  163. Mister

    You confuse your inferiority complex with braggadocio, i will confess i am somewhat surprised you can spell it correctly.I give a zero fuck about my credibility, i am passing time till the game begins in a few hours, arrogant douchebag. Nice talk junior.

    You are just intimidated, jealous, its only chunks of metal, i am both a student and teacher, I have not been called arrogant since i was 16, and the world kicked it out of me, maybe chill?

  164. sun and moon.

    people are really just monkeys in suits,we have our conceits and our airs, we can think and talk good, but we came from the trees, hit the ground, and went killing, and we have never stopped.

    The guy that perfected the atomic bomb at Los Alamos, the head scientist, i have forgotten his name, got it , Oppenheimer, he was profoundly undelighted with the task they gave him, , as in should i really have done this as a human being, since i could now, with my own naked brains, eradicate the earth given enough uranium, , and quoted a poet, not sure, one of you will know, but i remember these chilling words, "I am become death , the destroyer of worlds" . Absolutely dead right, his bomb was a toy bomb, we multiplied it 50,00 times by 52. Those words stick.

    Evert generation in my family went to war, my uncles in the 50s returned maimed, many with wooden legs.

    As a child, I assumed they CAME with wooden legs, these crippled, limping caricatures.

    Im a big fan of Dr Oppenheimer, he threw a spanner into the works. Jesus, this guy has runed the game. We cannot play like usual, or we eradicate the earth.

    Rather fine with me, I never had to go to war. We skipped a generation, THANKS DOC, but , we figured a way around it, regional wars instead!!! men like it, they actually like war, they like killing,what a fucking disgrace, what a pack of feral monkeys. I am ashamed to be this male monkey, designed for killing, oops, this is off topic,

  165. Sun and moon.

    Back in the mists, which unknowingly rule us, silver is the moon, gold is the sun.

    If you ever wonder at the relative relationships between the two, well, the moon you can look at, the sun nope, too intense,much bigger, much more powwerful, hence the price discrepancy in our contemporary unit of measurement.

    This is the basis of gold and silver, its drilled into our monkey genes by our curious position in the universe, , the percentages are of course arguable,this is where it begins. And remains.

    Funny people us. Very sophisto. Oh really.

    We try, we struggle, we try to improve, we are imprisoned by immutable biology, Blythe Masters can fiddle our silver price, Blythe i could readily eviscerate you on one economy flight to new york. oops!!!

    Monkeys in suits.

  166. I think there will be too many arbitraging between PM dealers causing damage to them.
    In order for PM dealers to protect themselves, I believe that the PM dealers will have to widen the spreads on their products, which will make it much more harder for everyone to invest in physical bullion.
    Also, even if the PM dealers "really" make the market for them selves, how are they going to efficiently hedge the fluctuation in PM prices without a highly liquid exchange?
    I think this idea will significantly raise the spreads on the bullion.
    Of course, this pricing mechanism may reflect the much more real silver price but is it going to help us?
    I would rather live with the fraudulent COMEX.
    Sure, its a fraud. But its not sustainable, and I think we do not need another pricing mechanism to make it dysfunctional.
    In the long run, the COMEX only provides with opportunities and I am pretty happy with that.
    Although, those wall street scums do make me sick.

  167. @Karim From your lips to the ears of god.
    I agree.. initially it will toss a wrench into the current system but how long will it take for either regional conflicts or "the war on the middle class" to take presidence?

  168. vamoose said... "...she kind of reminds me of my mother, abit of a severe face that may in fact be it,i have considered letting her spank me..."

    Let me guess.. a repressed Brit? SMH

  169. she does have a bit of a smile. catsey, it would be interesting to met this kunta kinte.

    keep in mind, she is giving us healthy 30 dollar silver, if i pulled her pants down, sorry, it might be a bad shock, hahaha.

  170. 49.

    i want my maypo.

    you do not. you want to take the ginger out of the bloody silver chart, let the thing percolate, perhaps for a month, and erase that infernal parabola.

    the real game is 50. thats our number. if we ever breach it, it gets radical. we need a bit of a base for the some golf. kiss your kids, read a good book. we will get them, think 72 dollar silver. 51 is instantly 72.

  171. cocktail party in the hamptons.

    the hamptons are long island in new york, 75 million dollar beach homes, guess who bot these

    jamie dimon of jpm is having a cocktail party, but some strange limousines are pulling up.

    that would be us. we are attending, 6 limos, 40 people, we look ok, oh really, we will set his house afire with lighter fluid, kidnap his dotter, hava few free drinx, and turn it into a party for the ages.

    a bus from the bronx pulls up, that would be our black brothers with their beach towels, and they troop into jamies house. meet your new neighbours you thieving criminal.

    it may not happen so genteely, but this will happen within 36 months, these thieves are cooked, dimon will turn on the barbie, and will be eaten, would you like some arm, no thank you, some thigh would be preferable actually, if you could carve off a steak for me, remember madame lafarge, robespierre, the various players in the french revolution, enjoy the spring sunshine as the silver chart gets organized. its our world peoople. we are the hamptons, the hamptons are us. these criminals are barbecued. fucked.

  172. the bush family has a enormous place in uraguay. why would that be..............because they know, that once the populace twigs, they are very severe toast, so they have to beat it somewhere.

    these are truly wicked people, think of crying children on the sidewalk after dad, admittedly somewhat unwise, is foreclosed upon, its going to get middle east peculiar, these foul people are going to get EATEN for protein, so live it up assholes, 45 million americans live on food stamps, one in 7, but thats a horseshit number like the rest, its probably 55, one in 6.

    we are hungry, we will eat your daugfhters. salsa.

  173. blinded by arrogance. do you think these idiots know they are going to be barbecued. i think not. i think they think they will fly it, let them eat cake.

    so it will be a dreadful shock. good, thats more fun. your dotter is 12, hmmmm should i fuck her before i eat her......decisions, decisions.

    be assured these hounds are done. hold your coins, if you can buy some prefaced by a 3, it seems reasonable to me my very good friends on this board. we are friends.

  174. all of these facile assumptions assume a constant us dollar, which is highly doubtful. how do you measure a terminally ill numerator. imposs.

    there really is no number for silver, it could become ridiculous.

    mortgage your house, mortgage your kids, rent your spare room, buy silver in the 30s.