Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Objectives Met

Gotta admit that, so far, this is coming together almost exactly as planned.

June gold today reached a high of exactly 1520.00. I'd say that's pretty close to our 1520 objective.
July silver has a high of 38.82. Not quite the 39 or 39.50 I was hoping for but close enough, that's for sure. From here, if gold can linger between 1515 and 1520 overnight, silver make take one more stab higher and still get above 39. However, whether or not it does is of no consequence. Our objectives from the Cinqo de Bottomo lows have been met. Next, we wait for the pullback. No reason not to think it's coming.

As discussed this morning, we even had a Happy Tuesday. Not a big, dramatic rise but certainly an absence of EE selling. Even when the PMs were rolling over this morning at 9:30, the downside momentum never got cooking...your first sign that the EE was on the sidelines here on CoT survey day.
Just another reason to expect some downward consolidation in the coming days. No doubt The Cartel will be back in the pit, selling their unbacked paper silver, trying to scare out all the dip buyers. Let em! We need to silver in particular to come back some, base and consolidate. IF we can get this to happen over the next 4-5 trading days, we will be set up for another great, money-making run into late June and the first notice day for the July contract.

Here's your hourly gold chart. You can plainly see what I've been looking at as resistance around 1520. You can also plainly see the support gold will find on any dip back toward 1500.
And here's your silver chart. It has really flattened out just below 39 as I'm not the only one who loses buying interest above that level. Like I said above, it may take one more stab toward 39.50 but I don't expect it to. Instead, I'd expect us to gradually roll over, head back down through 38 and 37 before finding quite a bit of buyers in the area between 36 and 36.50. I'll certainly be one of them.

That's it for now. Too much other stuff to do.
The LTs have a "spring concert" tonight so I won't be able to give you another update until much later this evening. Hang in there, relax and have fun. TF


  1. Hope you're wrong and it goes the other way, just for fun.

  2. EA: Maybe, but we can buy with a lot more confidence if the dip develops as predicted.

  3. Who is shorting all of the silver mining shares and why? There has been a huge disconnect between the shares and the metal staring on April 11. What has changed?

  4. The miners are also telling you that the metals are preparing for a downward consolidation phase.

  5. once this dip happens whats the chance we will retest $50 by June 11?

    in percentages?

  6. waffen: Hard to say for sure. I'll know more by next week. For now:
    By June 11? Slim. By June 25? 50/50.

  7. ?EA?? U long already?

    I wish I was. Sold both 34 and 35 XAG purchases I had @37. Now we have everyone waiting for pull back which might be shallower than we think. I hope I`m wrong.

  8. =/ yeah i am afraid of that.. only 6k down the drain i guess. more concerned with the hen pecking by the wife..

  9. I hope $1600 by june 10 is a done deal..

  10. Short the shares - long the bullion could be a good "impending crisis/doom" hedge. Bullion would not fall as far and stay down as long as the shares in a lot of financial crisis/stock market collapse scenarios.

  11. Gold/XAU at highest level since 2009 (7.37). Miners are completely washed out already. I wonder why people think there is more downside to come?

    Troll Indicator @ ZH is pegging all time highs. I've never seen this kind of an all out assualt against the PM's, and silver in particular.

    I say ignore the noise and look ahead, and BTFD.

    Bay of Pigs

  12. Turd: what about timing? You've been mentioning mid May. Could this be possibly extended to last week of May ? There will be options expiry date and might EE (which is scared to death after many GC and SO option contracts got excercised last time) extend 'correction' phase by several extra days?

  13. Bay - 2008 thinking (right or wrong). No QE2. Austerity. Nuff said.

  14. This comment has been removed by the author.

  15. Thanks Turd for everything, your calm guidance has managed to restrain my finger from the "buy" button for the moment.

  16. @Turd

    "The miners are also telling you that the metals are preparing for a downward consolidation phase."

    Heed this advice everyone, I got burned last time because I did not believe what my miners were telling me.

    Well done as usual Turd.....I can't believe I just said that...lol

  17. Awww jeez. I'm getting my cash settled tomorrow. Missed the wonderful crude dip, missed the sugar train as well. And now what does my eye spy? Lumber has left the station as well. Suddenly the bugger is up 8%+. Well, perhaps I'll jump on lumber tomorrow, still. Sugar I'll wait out, same as with silver.

    At least my sugar and lumber expectations were right. Wish I could've played on them though. Well, time for a nice gin & tonic. Would be better if I had some higher quality gin than this Gordon's London dry though.

  18. Sold my June 40s and July 40s today (for SLV). I found it interesting that with silver up over 2% at one point, my options peaked at about a 5% increase. And at 1.5% increase in price, my options were actually down in price. Very few buyers out there in the options market just seemed to fall in line with Turd's theory.

    Thanks, as always, Turd! Great stuff!

  19. if we go down to $36 in the week of 16-20 may then go to $40-$50 approaching the first notice day in the end of june and the comex survives? when approaching $40-$50 the comex might raise margins again, survive the july delivery month.what then? QE2 will finish. Maybe we will head much lower afterwards, to lets say $30? any thoughts about that here

  20. Intelligent analysis as usual Turd - and seeing as you're in a 'guestimating' mood, what are the chances of $1,600 gold by June 10th?

  21. The U.S./China meetings are all done, time for the PO$X to resume it's decline I see.
    A coincidence? Just amazing how that works out perfectly for the debtor when your main creditor (besides the Fed) is in town for business talks and the Euro/Greek just happens to take center stage just before and during these talks.
    Lets see how much we hear about Greece going forward.

  22. agauinvest,

    They do that and we see an epic crash, much worse than 2008. Not betting on that scenario happening. It would be political, social and economic suicide for Obama, the FED and Wall St to go down that road.

  23. I noticed that only in-the-money Calls went up today on SLV. OTM Calls and all Puts were down.

    With a 1.5% up day for the underlying, it looks like the call buyers don't have much faith in this rally either.

  24. Bay - that's why I said "right or wrong." I think they will try a tiny bit of that course as a feeler, and even that will blow up on them.

  25. unky,

    That sounds quite possible. I'm currently aligning my moves based on just that assumption.

    Keep in mind that I'm nobody and I certainly don't have any special knowledge.

  26. well my options are sucking, but I just got my delivery of 500 kooks..

    the UPS guy asked me if it was ammo.. "how'd you guess" I says... ;)

  27. A lot of people say that the shares know
    when the metals will dip before we know
    it ourselves. How come , how does that work?
    Silver has been
    the proverbial elevator with a bunch of
    loonies at the controls. I'm getting attached
    to the idea of a more gentle meander back down
    to 33.50 ish again, with a sharpish bounce back.
    No ?

  28. Erikm

    yes it was depressing to see my OTM calls be losers on an up day.

  29. Turd: Is there any way you can post your thoughts before the market closes? I know it isn't trading information but it is very useful to me to know what you are thinking. I was sitting on extra ZSL before the close and decided the move up in silver might be for real so I got rid of the extra. If I'd have seen this post at 2:30, I would have hung onto it. It may have been a mistake but I'd have felt better about the chance I was going to take. I sold 2,500 shares. We'll see if it was the right thing to do tomorrow. Thanks.

  30. "With a 1.5% up day for the underlying, it looks like the call buyers don't have much faith in this rally either. "

    That begs the question, "And why would they if they read this blog?"

    Makes you wonder, what is the volume on Turd nowadays? Eventually, with enough success, Turd will have become the de facto Empire. Whenever he calls for an upcoming dip, everyone will sell, and vice versa. How many people have you turned onto this blog? And how many did they turn? How many hundreds or thousands of times his own wealth does he influence now? The Turd is growing, and is probably at least starting to become a pain in A$$ to EE, or at least was before the wipeout/decapitalization of last week. I would think that all-in, TurdWorld might constitute a BOS or two.

  31. Guys,

    Last time silver apporached 40 bucks there was little resistance. It popped right through. It may do the same again and head towards 43 or 44 quickly. If I was a betting man (I guess i must be - I own silver) I'd say the next correction - which could get real ugly - would come in the price range. Call me paranoid but right now my hands are still in my pockets.

  32. Fed's Lacker: QE2 end high-water mark of stimulus

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The end of the Fed's $600 billion bond-buying program at the end of June should be the "high-water mark" of the Fed's stimulus efforts in this cycle, said Jeffrey Lacker, the president of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank on Tuesday. The focus going forward will be on the timing and pace of the withdrawal of the stimulus, Lacker said in a speech to business leaders here. Lacker said that the Fed must bear in mind that inflation can rise even if the level of economic activity has returned to its pre-recession trend. "To prevent that, it may be necessary to initiate policy tightening well before the unemployment rate has fallen to a rate we would expect to see over the long run," he said. Lacker continued to be upbeat about the economy. He said it is now clear that the unemployment rate is headed in the right direction. Higher gasoline prices should not dampen consumer spending for long. Lacker said growth should continue for the next few years at a solid above-trend pace although the rate of growth may fluctuate from quarter to quarter. "We should be careful not to read too much into every month's little data jiggle," he said. Reads to me Volatility!

  33. I posted this one in the previous thread:


    Following your blog for several months now as one of the best blogs on PM’s around.
    Reading on your blog about the Bangsters and their criminal relatives raises THE ultimate question:
    Can we ever win the war against these Bangsters to accomplish a fair silver price?
    I mean: These Bangsters have (through the FED) unlimited resources. They can short at any given time and price driving the price to any level they want. At that moment they can close their positions and make a bucketload of money. Then it is to us (the small private investor) to ‘repair’ the price again to fair-value. But when the price is closing in to fair-value the Bangsters step in again with a massive amount of shorts driving the price down and make another bucketload of money. And they can do so again and again.
    Where am I wrong in this scenario and does that mean that sometime in the near future there will be a fair price of silver?

    All the best and with kind regards,

    Henk (The Netherlands, Europe)

  34. @waffen, I always tell my mail guy that it's a 'special anchor' for my boat.

  35. Two comments asking about $1600 by 6/10.
    Yes, I still expect gold to get there but considering I made the prediction at 1320 and we've seen a high of 1578, I'd say that prediction can already be considered a huge success.

  36. @Erik

    imo, this is to be expected, may and june volatility at 45 strike call is already 80% and 64%, respectively.

    at the 50 strike call, may and june volatility are ~ 118% and 72%

    for ex, this means if u buy a may 50 call in SLV right now, it means u think that SLV is going to go up from here at a rate of 118% annualized between now and may expiration. every day we do not get an explosive move towards the far OTM calls, u will see significant volatility and theta related decay.

  37. In a paragraph, the charts are busted and 'they' proved 'they' control the horizontal and the vertical. As for the miners, it's so easy for 'them' to sell naked puts into any strength as there's no regulatory agencies not on the take in North America. Why Janzsen's so skittish on silver but bullish on gold, I'm not sure - probably believes in free gold, but if you go the knife catching thread on itulip, he's still beating the drum for $20 silver soon.

    And don't forget the sell in May and go away mantra, until QE 3 is rolled out.

  38. @Code

    hey man i don't think we r quite thr yet but who knows who is watching.

    i was involved in an income trading group once, where we were making 5-10% for month for about 10 months. ultimately the group went from trading 200-300 options contracts per month to 1000 or so. we ultimately had to stop b/c our orders in the thin markets we were trading became signals for the market makers to squeeze us for bids. the last 2 months we were practically trading each other just to fill our orders!

    so it can def happen just not sure in the silver futures market we can make any dent!

  39. Waffen,

    That's not a good sign. RSI also hit 70 on the on the 1-hr chart earlier today. The good news as I see it is that we haven't broken the uptrend since May 6th. But we are very close.

    If it breaks below, and especially if it breaks below 38, I will be selling all of my positions. I'm hoping we get lucky and we test the $39.75 area tonight/tomorrow, which is a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

  40. @waffen. When I was getting 2 Monster boxes at a time I was telling the mail carrier that they were cases of metal lugs for making automotive parts. However I do like the ammo comment. I think that is the best by far

  41. Santa says time to short the Long Bond. I am thinking short the TLT ETF and take advantage of the ETF decay.

  42. Stella Concepts is not a regular stop for me, but
    I did watch all of his stuff early on in my AG research. Recently caught up on his last hand full.
    Worth the listen for both vets and newbies.

    NIA receives a lot of criticism also, but there is a fair amount of worthwhile stuff to ponder.
    Everybody should watch "Meltup".
    It's from 2010, but relevant.

    Glad to hear of some folks playing the "half dollar derby". I just went through my second purchase (2000 of them). Not as lucrative as the first 2000, but still worth the time.
    Only a handfull of 40% this time.
    Ready to unload this lot and order another 2 boxes. Won't find silver cheaper than this.

    I too feel that a small retrace is probably coming. It seems like it may be that "slow motion" uptrend that takes us back near 50.
    Still have some dry powder. I'm buying at 34, and with both hands at 30 if if if.
    Good luck to everybody. Peace.

  43. Turd
    Just haven't said how much your little silver oasis here means to all of us...thx again

    Have a question. I'd like to hear what the cream of the crop of PM investors (Turdlings) think about what price will 90% coinage begin to be priced by weight instead of face value.

    At least 25% of my silver stack is 90% as it is easy to acquire at spot or a tad under in large and small amounts. I've also picked up odd rounds when the market supply is tight or when I can acquire them with no real premium. These and the well/overly worn 90% is what I plan on swapping for gold at a lower swap ratio than it is now.

    Also have ASEs and am not positive whether I should favor them or get more ounces without the high premium. What have all of you have to say?


  44. I would be careful buying at 1500 gold or $36 silver, should a pullback occur. Bob Hoye (and other respected advisors) are anticipating a drop to around $28 - 31 silver and $1370 to $1425 gold. I have a trial subscription to Hoye's Institutional Advisor service, which I signed up for after I learned that he had called nearly the exact top in gold and silver recently (he called for the top at $1580 gold and $48 to 50 silver).

  45. I agree to disagree. Gold to 1540 before meeting resistance, silver to 41.

  46. So why is NIA considered a pump and dump?

  47. saw this just now on ZH

    "Jim Rogers Says He Plans To Short Treasurys As Soon As This Afternoon"

    how would one go about doing this?

  48. @ Waffen

    Ah, don't kid yourself those delivery guys/gals know exactly what they deliver. He was probably just testing you to see if you said anything :) Four long winters unloading and delivering... I'm sure most of the people here already know but don't even bother putting "Fragile" (I think it's Italian) or some other such nonsense on your mail/package. The package literally gets thrown into/out of the back of a semi-truck.I can't remember how many times I just pulled the top row of boxes down (not worth injuring yourself) tires, computer monitors,mirrors whatever. I'am really amazed any of this stuff works.......Cheers,

  49. @waffen

    just my 2 cents man but dealing with treasuries and currencies for trading is not a fun way to make money, particularly in the short term. the market is so large and the money so big that the possibility of us having more info than the big guys is nil in the short term. that's my own bias...but if u don't want to trade futures, u can look at tbt and tlt as closest proxies related to treasuries

  50. @Eric#1

    Re: Timmons, I think their main mine is the old San Francisco mine outside of Magdalena, Sonora which is just a 2 1/2 hour drive for us. We've never tried to find the mine (I once considered investing in it but they are a client of Peter Grandich and you know minumentum ad hominim and all that) but I'd guess it's another 50k beyond.

    Magdalena is a sweet little town and while we don't make it every year, we do try to get there for the religious ceremonies every Oct 4 when we can. If you own Timmons stock, you and the family could visit and write it off ;-) Not much to see in the area but it's not that far from Mazatlán and even closer to Puerto Peñasco if you do beaches (which, unfortunately I don't.)

    Despite the Grandich connection, I hope the stock preforms amazingly for you.

    Full disclosure: Unless GDXJ owns any Timmons stock, then I'm completely Timmons-less

    Huxley Ann

  51. TBT has bad slippage. I am looking at shorting the long side of this bull/bear pair, TLT.

  52. Did anyone else catch Mad $ Cramers reference to 'More Cowbell'?

  53. Santa is also saying this is a good entry for a short on treasuries, FWIW.

  54. @Vincent

    Congrats on the half dollars. I was getting them but the bank stopped it after 1-1/2 months and that was the end of that. Since then I can't get any other banks to do it. Either they're unable to order it, not on the armored truck route and would be a $75 fee to get the half dollars there, or just too small and can't order it. But I tell you I did VERY well while they were coming (4,000 coins per week). All good things must come to an end I guess. :-/

  55. Proshares has 3 different treasury ultra shorts products, the short bonds 3-7, medium 7-10 and the long bonds 20+. Is it the medium and long bonds that they are shorting?

  56. TF...Au could be stuck at $1500 and your still good in my book regarding your $1600 prognostication. That took some kahonies!

    If the PM's weren't so heavily manipulated you would have hit your number way before now.

  57. I prefer 90% myself. The premium shift in 90% over spot during shortages kicks the shorts off of my morgans and rounds. Also I had considered trying to deal with the public a bit to buy silver and in preparation to do so I studied how to tell a fake from real round, I turned up these images...


    That made me pretty nervous obviously.

    I went to the meet an individual that had a roll of buffalos from APMEX. They were soapy looking, made a dull thud on the table and were a gram off in weight. I didn't do that deal, and ran into similar problems when trying to sell my own rounds. 90% is damaged uniquely, recognizable to anyone and MUCH easier to do deals with nervous John Q Public. Also if the world goes mad max I would much rather have silver dimes than 1oz rounds which wouldn't be small enough to compensate for differences in bartered goods.

  58. Swift Boat,
    I unloaded all of my smoothies (mostly quarters) on the way up to 49. Took a little profit.
    My local guy (and folks here) will probably tell you that the higher silver goes, the more likely weight will count. I have a pretty good scale, and the silver content is substantially less.
    I just decided to play it safe, took some profit, and grabbed some dry powder for my most recent purchase.
    I buy generic rounds too and will also use them to swap for gold.
    My coin shop guy has a bunch of ASE's and I'll be going after them hard if we see +/- 30.
    His premium is 3>.

    My bank (2 different branches) charged no fee. I just had to order 2 boxes.
    Did not take them back to my bank. Don't want to tick them off. I'm saving that fun for some other, less likeable banking institutions. Ha. My small way of annoying these criminals.

    Skip the stock pumping stuff from NIA, browse through their YouTubes, and articles on the site. There is some worthwhile reading.

  59. Hoye is 3rd on my list after Norcini and Morris Hubbart. Hoye recommended shorting/selling ag miners and ag last Sept.,fortunately I rolled with my 2 top dogs who concurred with each other and most of the rest of my "advisors". Even now I stay looking for a low on/around 6/14 ala Armstrong while hoping for Turd to be correct as I have small kine May/June calls bought in March/April, July puts,'12 calls '12/13' otm puts. Try wait,bumbye we see.

  60. "FIRST"! - okay, so I'm a slow typist.

    My over-paid but useful advisor says, don't buy any paper in May unless it's with an extremely smelly stink bid; don't sell everything, but take profits if you gottem.

    That works for me.

    If paper doesn't follow physical, it's a huge red flag.

    It's not rocket surgery.

    over & out

  61. Not sure if I’ll file this one in ‘monetary history’, ‘pm forecast’ or ‘personal financial preparation’, but here’s an excerpt (lifted various para's) and a link. This ‘off the beaten path’ article not only lays out historically how we got where we are in gold and silver, but offers a realistic view and studied approach to fixing the problems that have been created by the “crime families” (and the usual counterparties).

    A Cross of Gold –

    “The present domestic and international monetary and banking systems have slipped into the initial stages of terminal dissolution. In their present forms, they cannot long survive.”

    … “our present funny-money scam is coming apart at the seams” and “we need to set up a new Ponzi pyramid before the old one collapses”. But if not in its prescription, yet in its description the United Nations states the truth.

    So the question is not “Will the present domestic and international monetary and banking systems split apart at their seams?” but whether, in the course of their inevitable unraveling, they will drag this whole country—the real America, the America which was once worth the price of admission, the America which used to be a beacon of hope for the entire world—down with them.

    Or, more precisely, the question is whether those among the American people who are alert to this danger will sit idly by and allow the worst to happen.

    “They also serve who only stand and wait” cannot be the watchword in the coming battle. Remaining aloof will not be a viable option.
    Speculators conjure profits to be reaped from increases in the so-called “price of gold”—going up, up, and up. This, however, is a lamentable econological fallacy, because it measures the value of gold in terms of another, and a terminally unstable, currency: Federal Reserve Notes.

    If economic history is any guide, the day will surely come when Federal Reserve Notes—as have so many other paper currencies of their ilk—become worthless, except as numismatic curiosities. Then “the price of gold” in Federal Reserve Notes will be exceedingly, perhaps astronomically, high.

    So, other than waiting for disaster to supervene, exactly what is to be done?”

    More –


  62. Waffen - Just bought TMV to play with a short bond bet. 20+ year duration and 3x leverage . . .

  63. I have been developing a strategy to avoid the ee manipulation, trading only during the hours of highest volume. I wait for NY to close, and then only trade until singapore closes. I figure the more volume, the harder it is to cut into the market with naked shorts. The chupacabras seem to like to lurk in the shadows of the globex, striking out when volume is low so their shorts have the most effect. Safety in numbers right?
    I don't trust london hours any more than NY.

    I want to poll the turdites here about the feasibility of a coordinated attack. Not sure how many turds even are out there or how many do futures, but I'm wondering if we all organize if we can make a spike, say during tokyo trading. We will last longer against a star destroyer than we will against that death star! The market(invisible han?) will have the shield down weve just got to give him more time.

  64. Why is Turd so confident there will be another pullback? Is he just looking for a double bottom as verification this is a solid "Turd Bottom"? Just curious if there are more "signs" out there that I'm missing. Please explain.

  65. db cooper is a hero of mine. that was one cool cat.

    so, its about 50. 50 dollar silver. this number has been rendered atomic.

    it looks like we do not breach 30, which makes good sense, people would sell their children to buy silver in the 20s. so it wont go, low 30s maybe.

    and if we dicked around, in the 30s and low 40s for a while, fine with me.

    and one fine day we will creep towards the 50, the hunt high from 1980, and the high we saw them just defend.

    we ever cross that number, print say 51, holy christ, this is wild country. its an instant 70, headed for 100.

    will it happen, of course, when, dunno not long, we have these people fucked on the short side, they know it and we know it, area 51.

  66. @EA:

    That was a GREAT post. I hope everyone takes the time to listen to Maloney re-explaining the silver bull market and the difference between price and value.

  67. I have a 1 oz. Generic silver round on the Bay, kind of as a 'feeler'...
    it is up to $42.00+ 2.99 shipping... $44.99 oz.!!
    has 11 hours left.
    Interesting, almost stronger bidding than during the upswing...
    Ah man... now i have to let an ounce go :/

  68. Yeah Gramp.... but with those kinds of bids.. you can just buy it right back ..with profit! :]

  69. vamoose, you ARE db cooper I'm sure of it now

  70. take the ginger out of that parabolic chart,which is underway. if you can buy silver with a 3 in front of it, sell your children, or rent them out, anything prefaced by 3 is just fine.
    the short side of this racket is fucked. they are dead. they also know it.

    if we do some work in the 30s, thats just fine, thats the base for the assault on 50.

    is 50 gone, its gone, by say september. then blythe can bite me, and i will take the hit. i plan to stock her, i know where she is in manhattan, in that fancy pants apartment of hers, i am coming.

  71. kumanari, or other turdlings,

    what are the main website for Bob Hoye and Morriss Hubbart? I see their stuff on various sites, but don't know where their actual homepages are

  72. she has that feral, but paradoxically attractive face, its those damn teeth, the hint of cruelty, this woman is undoubtedly brilliant, and it makes her fucking sexy. she will be on her back in her ten million dollar apartment, surrender mode to the silver longs, very longs,as it happens, , now thats a rush, i will sell tickets.any takers. hahahahaha,

  73. @code and sp
    yes.. a raid of our own? My goal would be just a 20 cent swing, say during tokyo hours. We could coordinate with an irc channel. Is this feasible?

    word verification: ablyze

  74. naw, having the miners sell off to warn of a takedown is too predictable.
    A slow crawl to 50 will let many shorts cover.

  75. LOL @ Vamoose

    That's some funny shit 8^p

  76. Huxley Ann

    You are correct about Timmins. The San Francisco mine is their main property. Bringing an old heap leach operation back into production. Here is what is bugging me about them. They talk about how they've done studies on how they are getting much better recoveries than the old operators got by using a finer crush. Half inch or less. In their corporate presentation (p. 10) they show a picture of the old crush size. It's huge. So far, so good. But nowhere do they mention the possibility of recrushing and releaching the old heaps. Seems to me it might be a large source of cheap and easy gold. But I can't seem to get an answer from anybody on whether they have even thought about it.

    I'm not a geologist or a mining engineer, but anybody looking at page 10 of that presentation must be thinking that there's got to be a lot of gold still in the old rocks. Juniors tend to brag and promote everything they can think of, but not a peep about this.


  77. the numerator is no goddamned good. we speak constant us dollars here. there is no such thing, it goes to zero, the name of the finance minister in zimbabwe is , wait for it, gideon gono, i mean can we make these things up.

    even worse, after putting 14 zeroes on the zimbabwe dollar, he still has his job!!!!!!

    Carefuly monitoring his countries finances, life can be funny, surely this is about it.

    I paraphrase, i call him mr Gonzo, Gideon Gonzo, look it up, and he is doing a great job according to reports cleverly managing his countrys finances.

    so will silver breach 50........ oh please. .

  78. SwiftBoat

    I struggle with some of the same questions, and unfortunatly I don't have the answers either. I think the trading of 90% coin by weight is coming, but don't know when. It surprises me that it's not already here.

    I plan to start sounding out some of my coin shop guys on the subject and see what they think.

  79. @SilverBleve

    I like it. I'm in. When in Rome...

  80. SwiftboatVet,
    eBay sales for a single SAE is nearing $50
    Tulving is paying $3 for your SAE, selling for $4 prem.
    I am still buying SAE

  81. God confers gifts to his children. Silver in the 30s is such a gift. You get your physical, and say thank you. Sit quietly, let the chart resolve.

    Gideon Gonzo will handle the rest. Giddy up Gideon.

    What amazes me, is he is still on the job in Zimbabwe. Highly respected, like our wierdo beardo bernank, whose lips quiver, whose voice quavers, he is just a terrible liar. very very bad at it. In fact to his great discredit, this guy was well brought up, he was, quite clearly incredibly shy, hence that dopy beard, and honest, so he simply lies very very badly, god bless him, Now this is funny. a howler. silver at 75 with a bullet.

  82. @ Eric#1 Swiftboat

    Whatcha gotta do is see you gotta think like a person. You gotta sit back and imagine you are people and ponder as to what form of silver you might prefer.

    I personally enjoy the bling of the uncirculated silver rounds. It just strikes me as valuable when I look at it.

  83. Looking at Golden State rounds, esp. the 1/2 Walking Liberty, are they crisp and impressive?

  84. No, I'm D.B. Cooper.

    Like The Turd, accept no substitutes.

  85. Israel's next challenge: Obama's outreach to Muslim Brotherhood
    May 9, 2011,

    Israeli's celebrate the 63rd anniversary of their independence this week in good cheer. Neither by word nor hint have its leaders referred to the challenge facing the country in the year to come: Barack Obama, President of Israel's best friend and ally, has picked the Muslim Brotherhood movement of the Middle East as his chosen partner for promoting American interests in the Arab world in place of its ousted rulers. His courtship of this organization, which he regards as moderate...
    (con't @ debka.com)

    Moderate?!?! The Mslm.Bro'hood are politically savvy and keeping a simmering lid on their hate and real intentions...for now.

  86. coins.

    go to your hidey hole, take out one silver eagle or maple, and one gold one.

    take one in each hand. one is 40 bucks, the other is 1500.

    look at them for a while.

    if nothing else, they are actually beautiful. thet really are.

    they weigh the same, they have a certain heft to them, they are kind of fun.

    look, human nature is just what it is.

    i find it a bit difficult to pay 1500 dollars for some fucking coin. it just sits bad, but 40, fore kinda something similar, well, is this difficult.

    but silver is not gold mr moose. i know, but look at them, and do the math.

    that silver is downright tasty, and i can buy a lot of them for a little.

    so, thats what i want.

    and if mr and mrs america twigs to this, silver stays under 50 does it. it does n0t. its triple digits and fucking fast.

    this game has not even begun.

  87. The asians look like they want in on this action. How sure are we it has topped out for now again?

  88. Have to say Vamoose- I am enjoying your "raging silver bull" posts quite a bit these days. I am more cautious by nature and tend to be pessimistic regarding price, but it is fun to read "triple digits and fucking fast" stated with such finality.

    silverbleve- Also in. Turd names the time and date (and hour and minute), and we all buy or add. No front-running it either, cheaters. Probably a miniscule drop in the bucket, but even a tiny little blip on the chart would be worth it- after watching EE raid after raid it would be nice, just once, to give them some of their own medicine. I am most definitely in.

  89. $1,520 and $39 still looking like resistance, as called by Turd

  90. @Vamoose. By the way, nice call back on March 24. The relevant excerpt:

    But last November Eric Sprott did an issue of physical silver at 24. PSLV, currently sporting a 20 percent premium.

    It to0ok 3 months to get the bars to the Royal canadian mint . Getting that much silver , 500 million dollars worth required shopping all over the world. But many of the bars were dated LONG AFter the issue settled, virtually still warm from the refinery.

    There is no silver around, pyhsical silver that is.

    Now consider this. [B]What if he did another issue.[/B] Its already cleared... he quite readily could. So who is cornered, Sprott Securities or someone of like mind, or this supercilious kunta kinte at JPM,. I would argue that the cornered party here is the redoubtable BLythe masters. And the Comex.

    And why does PSLV trade at a 23 percent premium to nav, it makes it difficult to sell the issue no? More fiddling. Quite possible.

    forward to the present. The premium to NAV isn't down that much only 5% and narrowing.

    What's the next move?

  91. 21 oz. heavier today...:) ( an oz. Yellow metal for good measure):]-~

  92. We've just broken through those $1,520 and $39 levels, but can we hold it?

  93. Bullseye 39,1520
    Turd = Amazing

  94. mmm yes, asians do love thier PM's, almost as much as us turdites I think. Lets do some real time chat this eve as we watch asian markets on the turd chat:
    lets call it a shit talk session! haha jk

  95. this will be interesting to watch, no? Nice calls TF.

  96. Turd, you are unreal dud and this is why I follow your blog so close. Well, that and your personal touch keeping us abreast of the Turd family.

    Last night I posted a story titled The Case of the Mystery Gold here:

  97. To reach the "Final" Table @ Texas Hold'em tournaments... I will be satisfied winning even the smallest of pots. Steady small... less risk, while compiling gain. Takes patience.

  98. Gold and silver rising, dollar falling, Jim Rogers shorting everything to do with US currency. Feels like the world is finally going a bit back to "normal"... for now.

  99. Anybody seen the PM charts in the last minute or two??? Very nice, hope it keeps up.

  100. db cooper is the shit as the kids say, any guy who could jump out of an airliner, with a parachute, i have nothing to say, surely thats the epitome of cool.

    silver people are db coopers, all of us, i am not sure i am stepping out of a plane at 30 thousand feet, thats a bit radical, i think we should all smile, we have these assholes, we have em, we know it and they know it, so if we had to wait till august, awwwwwww, how awful.

    would you even want to sell your silver at 92.

    thats all well and good, but i kinda like it, its beautiful, its georgeous, its a work of art, i bet nobody on this board will ever sell one ounce, except to eat.

    its for keeping, its a way of life, we are odd people, and very early, the game is the first inning, first batter.

    go look at one of your beautiful coins. you want some pieces of paper for that???

    no fucking way, this is a religion. not for sale.

    i dont want your scraps of paper. i want that beautiful silver thing much more. its very very pretty, maybe i will give one up to eat, but thats about it.

    so many great people on this board, led by ferguson, who, to me, is frankly from elsewhere. what a man that is. jesus.

    best to all of ya. its fun. i am going to nail blythe masters, and give this board the play by play. serious, every juicy minute in the ten million dollar apartment in downtown manhattan, i guess i find that apt a bit problematic, i will track her down like awolverine in heat. co0nsider it done. joke.

  101. Santa's $1,521 Angel has been reclaimed. Impressive Asian buying today.

    "Risk-on" FX pairs like AUD/USD and AUD/JPY continue their strong bounce back from last week's sell-offs.

  102. Eric#1

    My coin guy said that he will start doing it in the future, just not sure at what price. He's the one who got me thinking about it.
    He already has started charging a premium for 1964 Kennedy halves (new, uncirc etc) to account for the full 723 ounces per $1000 face.

  103. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

  104. I got rid of my miners and now I'm waiting til tomorrow to buy some more physical silver. I hope the price doesn't go up too much.

    I'm long some Comex paper gold. So if we get a rise I'll get some profits in paper.

  105. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

  106. area 51.

    this, some will know, is where the us air force does their mischief. flying saucers n stuff, and funny little people from another place. are they real, i actually think they might be, they came for a visit, to say hello to the monkeys from the trees, they were pretty amiable, funny looking though.

    but, area 51 for us is seriously large. its a wild number. they stopped the hunts in 1980, with very similar tactics as ten days ago.

    this number as we know was50.

    god help them if we visit area 51. It will be 62 so fucking fast it will be ridiculous, probably one day.

    they will fight for their 50, trust moose.

    but when we get it, its very serious game on. wild country

    so they will fight for 50. they fucking will, we scared the shit out of them 2 weeks ago.

    will we win. look, we will win, area 51, then its just gone. 60s.

    then if there is something in the 30s, well, i would kinda buy it.

    if the chart cools its jets fine, even better, we have my blythe, i will pull her pants down, and wat will you find....i hope what i expect, can you even contemplate if there was a thing, lets not even discuss it, its not entirely imposs. very unlikely, but she is a bit butchy, lets not go into it shall we, hahahaha.

  107. TF: Your pullback to 36/oz. scenario might be the conventional wisdom in a normal market, but in this manipulated situation it's too pat a solution for those longs washed out from last week's high 40's positions.

    My experience tells me the market doesn't offer mulligans, and the current short-term triple tops being taken out just now at 1523 Au and 39.04 Ag, and today's 1% plus equity index gains to or above 3-6 month highs, for example, DJTA, COMP, NDX, RUT, VLE, XLY, XTC, XCI tell me the QE2 cum QE3 equity crowd's continuing stock purchasing will support an unexpected higher rebound in Ag and PMs, leaving the BTFD buyers standing on the platform as the Ag train pulls away once again.

    Jesse's purchase several days ago of RUT opened my mind to the possibility of higher equity prices, and the historic rule of 'never selling a quiet market after a rise', which is the condition of our ongoing equity market highs occurring on record low volume.

    Richard Russell has the same, but vague, "huge rebound in silver" idea:


    An Ag drop to 36 would heal lots of wounds, but I think the challenge will be to buy-stop scale up as long as equities continue their 8 to 26 month fiat-money-inspired run-up.

    For me all this is watching financial history and 100 year credit-collapse in the making, but none of my family, friends or business acquaintances see anything of interest worth discussing.

    I hope you're right on $36 TF, but if it heads directly back towards $50, I hope you'll give us your usual best on why the change, and what to do about it.

  108. This wackdown is called a transfer of wealth. I bet hundreds of thousands have lost a lot. I mentioned this was going to happen years ago. This will be the second (2008 being the first) of many more to come.

  109. ASE's sure are pretty, but I love Maples...

    God save the queen.

  110. (my first post! take it easy on me.) but just wondering....do you guys/gals think comex or EE rather inflate or deflate PM prices before the Hong Kong exchange opens? or the price doesn't matter? would making prices go up/down make it easier/harder for them to start out? just wondering if that'll have any effect on the PM prices.

  111. Do I smell wolves amongst the flock...?

  112. This comment has been removed by the author.

  113. "21 oz. heavier today...:) ( an oz. Yellow metal for good measure)"

    Gramps, sounds like you had a good day, sir.

  114. Man, it's getting hard to be patient, but the elephant in the room is no EE raids.... I can't believe that they have given up and gone home, so I'll wait a while more until a serious attack happens and then start building a position.

  115. franz: I'm still basing everything off of the pattern from the past three delivery months on silver. It suggests weakness into next week. Of course, as you mention, after last week all bets may be out the window. We'll see.

  116. " When Money Dies "

    In PDF format...read it...learn from it.


  117. "For me all this is watching financial history and 100 year credit-collapse in the making, but none of my family, friends or business acquaintances see anything of interest worth discussing."

    Franzpick - This is the case with many. We all share a bit of your experience. But you do have many friendly acquaintances here that are watching with great interest, with eyes wide open that do understand... and do find it worth discussing.

  118. yeah... the misses was giving me that look when the Zimbabwe Hyperinflation talk started...lol

  119. "I'll wait a while more until a serious attack happens..."

    An even more serious attack might come from an upside run to $60; I'm going with scale-up 5:4:3:2:1 buying every dollar or so up from 40.

    I keep hearing that "All aboard"...

  120. Shill,
    Check out

  121. greetings, long time admirer, first time poster.

    I am waiting for a big dip before I buy 20 1oz rounds of silver. I want to do it at the lowest price day or night. Where can I buy these 20 rounds exactly when the big dip occurs?


  122. @ MB...

    "When I was getting 2 Monster boxes at a time I was telling the mail carrier that they were cases of metal lugs for making automotive parts. However I do like the ammo comment. I think that is the best by far."

    Best not to use that line with the Postal Service....any carrier knows,except maybe for the part-timers, that the Postal Service does not allow shipment of ammunition through the mail.....that is why my shipments have either come by UPS or by FedEx ground.....fyi.

  123. A.Completo -


  124. next two months should be interesting - next delivery month & qe2 leading to qe3 but who knows what'll happen in b/w qe2 & qe3, if anything.

  125. franzpick,

    This is probably my emotion talking, but I really have the same feeling. This market knockdown was not natural, so why would we expect a natural rebound.

    Why must their be a double bottom? I believe we will break out to the upside. Of course this is a complete novice talking.

  126. More mayhem, death and destruction planned for the USA (Madrid Fault & nearby 15 reactors).

    Read my updated article here:



  127. @A.Completo,
    There is no guarantee that there will be another dip. I was going to make the same suggestion as johnboatcat (Gainesville).
    I'm getting a bit nervous because I made a buy at $35.35 and I need to make another tomorrow.

  128. thanks guys,
    I know its a risk, but am hoping for $32

  129. I'm no chartist - but on an hourly chart Silver went from $42 down to $34, and it was almost straight down, no buyers of dips to speak of. The fall from $48 was nothing compared to the relentless pounding on Wed and Thu longs took last week.

    So... if it goes straight back up to $42, it won't surprise me in the least. Maybe a short stop at $40. Maybe back down to $35, but I'm in the camp that you can't do much TA on manipulation. The cartel cleaned out a bunch of newbies, and is going to stay long IMO.

  130. nfl,
    why do you say the cartel is long?

  131. When Hong Kong's exchange opens, will that help or hurt prices? Or make no difference at all?

  132. It may go a little higher, but I'm in cash here. That last 10% of a move can be very expensive to try and capture.

  133. Here is the situation as I see it:

    Currently we are right around the levels that Turd has mentioned to be a logical place for a normal selling to occur. We had a ~29% correction from Sunday Night-Thursday from top to bottom in Silver, and Fri-Tuesday has had a 19% gain from silvers bottom and is normally should be due for some consolidation.

    So how did we get here? 5 Margin calls in silver (the last two announced together to prevent law of diminishing returns, with the initial biggest drop on the same night Osama Bin Laden was announced dead) with massive short covering by commercial shorts according to the COT. Also, on the day we ran to $33 in silver, Crude Oil Tanked 6$ out of nowhere with no margin announcement to be heard (just rumor). Yesterday, we get the announcement of oil margins effective Tuesday close, looks like someone knew it was coming... It is interesting it was priced in before the weekend. All over the news for "Crude plunges to 98$," and to expect lower gas prices! What timing.... with Barack Obama back in his "We got Osama" PR mode...

    Meanwhile in Gold... We have a New Hong Kong Exchange trading Kilo Contracts (May 19th). Morgan Stanley is involved with the creation of it, so we should always be on the lookout for new EE inventions. With that said, I think China is tired of this all, and wants to run the price of gold up, which exposes the US lie. They cannot just dump all of their treasuries, as the spin would be "China destroys US, declares act of Financial War." They must be more coy to play their hand vs the Western Banking Cartel.

    Recently, Turd wrote about how Gold is now leading silver. Maybe as of recent, silver has outdone gold in percentage terms, but not in its technical significance. Gold's technical strength at worst cannot be bad for silver.

    With gold trading over its 50% retracement (@ 1520?) and Angel of $1521 acting as current support in Asian hours. We had quite an emphatic pop through this number, and it will be interesting to see how things play out from here.

    What this all means is.... I think we can throw out all previous charts and trends, as we are heading into uncharted territory. Never before has the World Reserve Currency been this weak, we should all remember that.

  134. Nice summation, Scott.

    Hi, turdle. I hope you are well.

    Thank you both for your regular contributions to the blog.

  135. After that raid, what do you think JPM and the EE is doing these days? Shorting more Silver lol

    All the momo chasers got scared off, sell stops were hit all the way down, almost every share of SLV got flipped in the last week.

    Guess I'm too much of a contrarian, but easy money to be made if one were to go long when you can call your own bottom. My theory is the EE closed out all their shorts, and went long. Bernanke don't give a hoot if silver hits $100.

  136. Scott,
    Thanks for your summary.

    The point I would question is whether China wants to push up the gold price yet. I think they have years of accumulation to do to get anywhere near the amount they want (my source for this comment is various commentaries/speeches by Jim Rickards).

    So, I don't share the near-universal excitement about the new HKMEx gold contract. My fear is that China has learned from the Comex how to control PM prices, and they want to do some it to suit their own agenda. Methinks we'll never have free (paper) markets in the PMs.

    you're about 6 months into this adventure, and still going strong. Are you ever going to take a vacation?

  137. nfl,
    on your theory of the EE having closed out all their shorts and gone long, I think we need to see the Comex data first. Not sure that JPM could have possibly covered all of its short. BUT, with that massive volume in SLV, it's quite possible that JPM or others has taken a huge long bet that might easily offset short bets in other markets, taking them to a net long position.

  138. And also:

    When the NYSE has record amount of short interest on it, you can be about as certain as Bank of America's trading desk that these people will be torched.


    How anyone thinks that the DOW (Or Russel 2000) is due for a big correction and that they are able to foresee it far in advance based on the "fundamentals" is being setup to be a sucker (imo). The Market Makers see this and are about to torch all those who dare question the strength of the primary indicator in which Bernanke points at to determine his success.

    The way I see it, the DOW is all that people have to look forward to, and many people's retirements are linked to it. For this reason, it will be going UP UP UP and away as Rome crumbles. There has to be something to opiate the the "financial security concerns" of the Americans as their wealth, freedom, and opportunities are robbed from them. All without knowing or having alternative choices upon recognition.

    I could be wrong obviously, but this is just my view.

    Ron Paul is a way to spread an ideology. This is not about politics, this is a philosophical revolution that we must all undergo...

    Congratulations to all of you for being on the frontiers of it.


  139. FWIW,
    I'm partly following our fearless leaders advice, and lightening up here in silver in anticipation of a pullback. Am partly breaching one of my cardinal rules, which is never to be out of the market in a primary bull market, as I might miss the big move.

    In gold, I refuse to give up any of my long term position.

  140. what is the half dollar derby?

  141. @ Turdle GG

    I am under the impression that the Western Banking Cartel has their own agenda, and they are on their own timeline (apart from China's Wants). This cyclical end of the Federal Reserve Note seems to be coming to an end in the next 18 months is what my research has led me to... (They love symbolism and the year 2012 alone will surely pray on the weak-minded people)

    There may be an Eastern World vs Western World economic showdown going on, each one positioning themselves appropriately. China mines their own gold, which is surely not reported in accuracy to the western world. The one thing we are not thinking about is the importance of China RARE EARTH METALS. They own 97% of the production of rare earth metals, far more important than stacking up on extra gold they are buying with their worthless fiat.

    I find it hard to believe China would help perpetuate the scheme to trade its dollars in for gold. This move would have been done LONG AGO, these conditions did not blind sight the Chinese....

    I am not "in excitement" until I see what happens, as there could be any reason why this was created.

    It is interesting that in the months coming where COMEX looks to be in a real pickle, a new venue pops up. Is this coincidence, I would assume not in these days. For this fact alone, anything is possible..

  142. I take a sociopolitical outlook on this.. there's just as much reason for TPTB to suppress the PMs as there always has been. If JPM suddenly got religion and went long, another set of banksters would step up and do the job.

    And yep, it could keep going up and I get in at 40 instead of 30, but from where I stand going to 70 from either place would be pretty sweet.

  143. Scott,

    Note that the HKMEx was first announced in June 2008, so that's nearly 3 years ago. It's taken them until now to get their first product launched, so I'd discount any theory of this being an opportunistic move to capitalize on COMEX's current situation.


  144. Scott, great posts. Similar to the whole QE2 setup, the market is confused - no QE3, yes to QE3 or QE2 - perceived stop in liquidity - yes to QE3. Whichever way this goes, those in the know will make significant $'s.

    I suspect the playbook can be changed on a moment's notice. I also suspect where the vast majority think will happen won't happen or even if many believe QE2 will lead directly to QE3, many will stay on the outside.

    How many really know where stock & commodity markets are really going?

    I agree with you that a stock market crash at this juncture doesn't jive with various policy goals of the various players. Many would agree that at some point, a decline in stocks will be in line with policy goals.

    Either one can be out of the market, one can hedge accordingly one can speculate one-way on higher stock/commodity prices as QE2 directly leads to QE3.

    Reality is I do not know but my educated guess is in line with the continuation of QE.

  145. @ Turdle GG

    Thanks for keeping me thinking, in all honesty I have no idea. Just thinking out loud, as many of us here do. Your contrarian viewpoint on this subject is greatly helping me refine my own. Thank you.

    The answers will be evident soon enough, and when it does, I have a feeling we will both be on top of it.

  146. Today I sold some physical to pay off my car loan... boy was it hard to part with. I really don't know if I did the right thing. I love the fact that I now own the car outright, and so I am 100% debt-free. Puts me in a nice spot to BTFD if it comes. And if it doesn't, well I still have more than enough physical according to Harvey's recommendation. Plus I now have more disposable income (car payments were $500 per month) to buy physical every month. I suppose in my mind I am rationalizing this as taking some profit to use it where needed... still I think it might be hard to sleep tonight. The thought has already crossed my mind to sell the car and reload on physical ;) am I crazy!!?? Still after the crap that went down last week, I suppose mine is a good problem to have.
    Goodnight all.

  147. Scott,
    Of course I have no idea either! All I do is try to not take everything I read at face value. If there's contrary evidence that I know about I don't want to keep silent. That way we all help each other to fill in the blanks. The problem of course is that the really really helpful information is held closely guarded by the EE!

  148. What happened a couple of weeks ago put the March 2008 and early 2006 collapses to shame. It was strictly policy-driven and the equivalent of shock and awe. Straight up Vietnam farmland machine-gun strafing. No doubt they were gunning for weak hands and shaky speculators. The game is getting serious, someone said it up above, VAMOOSE I think, that 50/51 is their line in the sand. I have been trading silver for 5 years and my usually swarthy market intel is no good right now. The puppet strings go really high up. Which means this must be connected to fed policy, a.k.a end QE2 to begin QE3. If that's what it's really about, then we can expect them to create an environment that justifies QE3, which would mean vengeful deflationary price action. Or silver could be at $45 by next week. And remember QE3 is really QEx, because the next 2008 they throw at us might be a really big one. It's like, Hulk threw a bus at the market in 2008, now Superman (or Bizarro Superman?) is going to throw a flipping island at the market. Or silver could be back @ $45 by next week. And then $60 a few days after May 18, which would make this dip the V in a major cup handle head shoulders buy signal, a.k.a $ currency signal failure.

    This is why I trade the options on SLV and use the profits to buy more physical. This game will be going years from now, or until the system resets. I still want to be able to buy physical when silver is at $125/oz, WITHOUT selling any on the way up. I am strictly a buyer. Quantity of ounces trumps basis price. The only way I'm going to be able to do that is if I trade the empty Hegelian vehicle they call SLV with it's phantom 330MM ounces of silver. What a joke.

    You don't want to be selling your silver at $125/oz or $250/oz when system reset is months away. They use a printing press, why can't you?

    Vamoose those blythe jokes are really funny. Let's hope the black bag guys think so as well knowhatimean? Turd is popular enough now to potentially be on a radar or two. Look at the vomit-worthy osama 911 propaganda blasting at full volume on every psy-ops tv network (all of the majors). This IS the matrix. Look at the empty vacuums within the eyeballs of your friends and family when you raise these sensitive topics in conversation with them.

    This is why I strangle the market with leverage. Hasn't failed me yet. When swimming with the sharks, best to wear a shark suit with rubber teeth. Or just be a shark like TF.


  149. H

    What are Harvey's recommendations about physical?

  150. Hmmmm, no sell down after Sydney closes....

  151. New Jim Sinclair comments now up on King World News site. On silver, he said:

    “The recovery in silver, the fact that it got plowed down, but its character now seems to deny the recent break, I think silver is acting very, very well and as previously stated, I don’t believe we’ve seen a top in silver yet. "

  152. Trading range is narrowing. Good things going to happen.

  153. Okaaayy.. I hope all of us have learned during the past few months that markets do not go straight up and they don't go straight down. A slight correction is probably to be expected right now, 6$ straight up within days seems a little too much. Perhaps this correction will come from higher levels (around/above 40), perhaps it will never come. All I'm saying is that this is probably not a good time to buy here.

    I'm not shorting, because you never short a secular bull market. I have been accumulating since mid of last week though and I've stopped accumulating now.. it just smells too fishy..

  154. You nailed it, Silverman, so you are living up to your name. It just popped to 39.30.

  155. If daily MACD crosses price will accelerate. 4 hours and 8 hours slow stochastic already in overbought territory. Now waiting for daily SS. When daily SS reaches 80 level price would be 43.

    Only thing I'm regretting is closed at 38.50

  156. @SwiftboatVet
    I listened to an audio interview with Harvey in late 2010. His advice for a SHTF scenario was to have minimum 500 oz physical silver.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJPbwnW1z6Y this is part two of that interview.

  157. Harvey says 500 oz at about the 8:45 mark on the link in my last post. This is what he recommends foe the little guys. I am one of the little guys.

  158. "H", well not really. The interviewer asked him how much people needed, and threw out 500 as a number. To which Harvey replied, if you have 500 ounces, you'll be fine. He doesn't explicitly say that 500 is the *minimum* needed by little guys.

  159. @Silverman: me too! Closed at a lower level only to see it continuing up quite efficiently over time.

    Again it's a quandry buying at this juncture because of the risk vs reward argument.

    I'm just not convinced that it corrected deeply enough or retested the support long enough to have gathered enough steam to retest $50 again.

    What do you think?

  160. Btw guys.. still remember that DOW should be down 2000 points this week?

    Key word: EVIL

  161. SilverLeaf
    Not sure what you mean. I wasn't trying to mislead. I listened to that Interview a while back, and in the context of the scenarios Harvey discussed, being "fine" is good enough for me :)

    Don't get me wrong, I'll keep buying whenever I can, but tonight is the first time since I graduated from university (12 years) that I go to bed debt-free. I had to sell some physical to get there, but on reflection, and as I write this post, I am at peace with it :)

    Now, where is that dip ;)

  162. I am long since last Fri, and am still long. In gold and silver.

    I think for this week, we will see slow and steady rise till Thu. Then we have a profit taking session arranged for Friday.

    The uptrend will resume again next week from Mon - Thu, followed by profit taking on Fri.

    Thus far, everybody is anticipating for that illusive correction(pull back) which manage to escape somewhat from everyone's close surveillance.

  163. Marcus, just watching here as well. Consolidation vs. up/down/up would be healthy no? Haven't seen the usual raids, so perhaps the shorts are on the sidelines as shorts continue to cover?

  164. @Joeka

    As I've said yesterday silver train might already left us. Here's daily heikin ashi chart. You can clearly see each candle getting bigger. It will get even bigger next few days. If there's resistance 43 might be the possible one. But still hoping for 36. What JP morgue long silver now. They made boatload of money shaking the market. I don't they will use their powder right now. They will wait for 50 the big psychological round number. When we passes 50 it's just number. Next big thing will be 100.

    This is heikin ashi chart.


    My count of gold elliot wave. Usually 3rd wave is biggest.


  165. Looks like small correction is coming.

  166. silverman, 8:10am in london, interesting to see if this bounce back holds.

  167. Many experts said gold will test 1460 again. But look at gold now. It's trying to test 1575 again.

  168. CNBC slow money, Silver demoralizes the novices


  169. gold/silver down a tad, US$ in positive territory. Agree silverman, gold has been looking pretty strong.

  170. A contrarian view??


  171. Price dropped over bollinger band and bounced back. 90% of the time trade will continue inside the bollinger bands.


  172. Beauty of heikin ashi chart is you can see strength of the trend. Candles without tails are indication of strong trend.


  173. Markus said..."Btw guys.. still remember that DOW should be down 2000 points this week?
    Key word: EVIL"

    Curious if "Evil" accepted Turds request

  174. AS Turd is the Chart pattern recognition expert, I wonder what he makes of this comparison between 2004 and 2011. If it holds true, then $22 is the ultimate low?



  175. This comment has been removed by the author.

  176. US dollar rising means not against gold. It's rising against Euro. Battle of the fiats.

  177. Silver was up to 39.45 2h ago, any reason not to think it will brake $40 this week?

  178. It will break 40 today I think.

  179. This time big brother gold leading the way. Silver is following.

  180. nirvs, would fall in line with avery goodman's post linked by TF.

    Essentially says if they want to cause serious psychological damage, they'd push price below long term trend line at $22.50. Even then, he surmises prices would come back up strongly for, in my words, fundamental reasons.

    Moreover, Goodman says if they don't go in for another takedown, we'll likely see the price rise.

    It's a great read. But his message to the objective reader is it's 50/50 as to what happens from here.


  181. What is the best chart to follow the silver price?
    Some US sites seams not to update until thay wake up.

  182. @Fredrik B:


    From 'Instruments', select 'Silver, spot'.

  183. @ silverman:

    Why today break 40? Don't you think we had a sharp rally since 33 by now that we are due for a small correction?

  184. "US dollar rising means not against gold. It's rising against Euro. Battle of the fiats."

    Toilet paper versus toilet paper. Nice.

  185. Daily slow stochastic looks really strong. That's why I think today we'll see 40 silver. If everybody's scared of shorting they must be longing on silver. Even JP Morgue might be long on silver.

  186. If you didn't buy around 34-36 it's still dangerous game.

  187. mini-raid under way

  188. Why mining stocks are constantly falling as the PM rise?. There should be something i don't understand.

  189. @ Alex

    It's a topic that has been repeatedly touched upon here over the last weeks. Essentially it boils down to hedging. Funds buy silver futures or ETF's and hedge by shorting the miners. Since this happens on quite a massive scale, miners can go down even if the price of silver goes up. Especially whenever we reach an ostensible point of resistance, more shorts will pile on, and the downturn in miners can be used as an indicator for the coming trend in silver.

    Of course, I've also seen it completely backfire. When expectations aren't met and silver breaks through, miners play catch-up and often jump into the green at 10-15%. So, unless silver does something unexpected, or is at the beginning of a resuming uptrend, shorts are keeping miners down.

  190. Alex-

    If I quote Turd correctly, the miners going down might signal that the PMs are headed that way soon. We saw that before the MayDay massacre.


    The EE might have been on the sideline because of the COTs report... today we will see if they come back out in force, I'm thinking yes.

  191. H,

    You have purchased a certain amount of freedom. I'm not sure your silver could have been put to a better use.

  192. Here we go! Waterfall time....

    "The Bitch is Back!"