Sunday, May 22, 2011

Not Raptured

In looking over the comments from the previous post, I'm not surprised to find that many of our regular contributors are also still here on earth this morning. But seriously, if you are one of those lunatics who blew their entire life savings betting on the end of the world yesterday, what are doing today? I mean, today can't just be another day for you. Are you pissed? Are you hopeful that maybe The Grand Poobah was just off by a couple of days and now today is the day? Maybe tomorrow? Like Art Cashin says: "You never want to go around predicting the end of the world because you're only going to be right once". That's some sage advice right there.

Along those lines, the PM world did not end last week, either, as some would have led you to believe. I'm extremely confident that "Turd's #2" is now set and in. Now we just need to move away from our bases and it looks to me like that is going to happen this week. Here are some hastily drawn weekly charts for you to consider. First up, the POSX. The trend is clearly down. After breaking support at 74, it immediately popped back up. It will now certainly head lower and test 74 again. IF 74 holds, then maybe we can start thinking that the dollar has stabilized but not until then.
Here's a weekly CRB. Note that following the big drop, it has since stabilized and is now heading back up. I'm looking for this to reach back above 660 this week.


Gold looks great and, after a higher close last week, looks ready to move higher still. Like we discussed Friday, I expect a run toward 1525 then a pullback toward 1515 before running higher again toward 1540-45 by the end of the month or early June.
And here is silver which has three, consecutive weekly closes almost right at $35. I find that very interesting and I look for it to close UP this week. Maybe all the way back up toward the 37-38 area.
IF it does, then we'll go tackle the 39-40 area the first week of June.

That's it. Time's up. I hear our overnight guests stirring upstairs so I'd better go make some more coffee. They're going to need it after the night we had last night ;)

Have a great Sunday. I'll try to check in this evening after everything opens. TF

262 comments:

  1. From previous thread, reposted in case peeps skip straight to this new thread.


    >>>>Extracted from an article:
    ------------------

    The selling pressure experienced by silver has eased. Candlesticks in the last three sessions closed above the 100dMA with those in the last two sessions forming long legged spinning tops. These could act as reversal signals but they need confirmation.

    The technicals are benign and encouraging. The MACD is closing the distance with the signal line in negative territory. We could see a bullish crossover in the near future which could signal a rebound. If this were to pan out, watch the resistance provided by the 50dMA which is now at US$38.98. That prevented price from moving higher as it rebounded from the recent rapid decline. Market participants are likely to remember that and, so, the 50dMA would be a significant and immediate resistance level.

    Am I buying more silver at the current levels? Well, we could see a rebound in price and it might be a good idea to add to my position just in case it happens. This would be for a quick trade which means selling if the 50dMA should be retested. However, I am more a longer term holder and I am not convinced that the 100dMA is a strong support now. Why?

    See how the 100dMA has been broken in so many recent sessions? It could be a matter of time and this could take months but we could see the 200dMA finally called upon as support. The 200dMA is a long term support and if it does not break, generally, it would provide a more secure entry point.

    This strategy is a sound one for me because I already own silver bought at a much lower price. I am in no hurry to add to my position unless I get a firmer sign that things have stabilised for the longer haul.

    50DMA: 38.98
    100DMA: 34.79
    200DMA: 29.25

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  2. I think EUR is going down this summer and we will see some USD strength. Dont forget that dollar may be going down but POSX is just an index of other currencies that are going down also. If SHTF here in EU then POSX is going up.

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  3. Glad to see you didn't post on Saturday, brother Turd (seriously). I like what you do here, but if you burn yourself out by posting non-stop, you'll be no good to yourself and no good to us. Take every Saturday off.

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  4. Josh and I were not raptured despite being gay (and I suppose the cause for the prophesied armageddon? Certain groups usually are blamed for everything bad.) Anyway I'm not sure that it didn't happen because no one here was a member of that group of Evangelical Christians so if you find out that the rapture DID happen, please let us know so we can be warned in advance of the wrath of God inexorably pounding its way down our path (despite me not having a hot chick's butt as an avatar.) There are always always self-righteous bozos around which in its own way is worse than armageddon.


    Huxley Ann

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  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  6. I'm commenting on using silver pm as money in the previous thread. (I write slow and by the time I finished we had moved on.) So, here it is again.


    I've done a cursory reading of the South Carolina bill which would permit the use of silver for transactions. It looks like this would be a cumbersome process to say the least but one thing that stood out to me was a provision allowing someone to deposit silver into their checking account (probably a separate checking account from your fiat account) and then write checks or use a debit card against it. This would be converting silver back to fiat but it would occur at the time of the transaction. Keeping the transaction in fiat would allow the state to continue to capture the sales tax and would also lift the onus of conversion of silver to fiat from the merchant. And, actually using coins at the point of sale would lead to barter transactions (That sales tax thing again.) especially with smaller merchants. I owe the plumber $300.00, I give him nine ounces of silver and he is on his merry way. Course, this happens more and more with fiat these days anyway. Also, from what I read, an ounce of silver would be an ounce of silver whether its an eagle or a round from a mint. I don't know, if someone owed me money I would take an eagle...I know what an eagle looks like but unless I recognized the round I would be a little hesitant. I've been in touch with my congress lady and senator and have suggested just using official U.S. legal tender, eagles and pre 1964 silver coins. If enough states did this, the U.S. mint might start making real silver coins again. But, I think the idea a checking account makes sense. Of course, I would only deposit enough silver for my day to day transactions and when the account got low, go to my stash and deposit enough ounces to pay my bills for the next month or so.

    A state legislator replying to the question "would you secede?" "Well, we did it once." :-)

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  7. THAT time I WAS 8th. Everything has a frequency and the frequency of money and prosperity is EIGHT.

    Hux

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  8. @Huxley Ann,

    What is your take for next week ?

    The price of Silver seems to be capped between the Jupiter and Neptune PLs at the moment, i.e. around the 33 to 39 levels. I am looking for it to regain traction back towards the Mars PL sometimes later, and challenges the Saturn PL later.

    http://i51.tinypic.com/2akemhc.gif

    TayB

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  9. Thanks for the update Turd, just popping my head in.

    Peace.

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  10. Tough call at this juncture, I really like the sell in may, go away proxy at this point in the game, but I also see the financial wildfires breaking out in europe. Combine that with a potential slowing in the chinese economy as well as money flight out of the stock market, and then you also have a fed actively destroying the dollar as well as government that is not financially responsible, thus making me wonder if the sell in may, go away credo really applies

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  11. JoeKa,

    What article is your prior post an excerpt of? Who is the author?

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  12. I like that weekly silver chart. Is that bull flag?

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  13. @Lester: my bad. Should have included the link also. Here it is:
    http://investgoldsilver.blogspot.com/

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  14. One criminal has warned the other criminals. This may be the end anyway. CHECK THIS OUT:
    THE END IS NEAR!

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  15. TF,

    Is this CRB different than the CRB you've posted in the past? It is scaled differently.

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  16. @ Timer

    I think silver and particularly gold (I went overweight gold) will have an up week next week since the Sun is transiting my second house cust and the moon (late in the week) week will be transiting my Sun making it's monthly lunar high. Transiting Saturn is pretty much out of orb right now to all my planets except a wide (3deg) oppositionto natal mars - I watch out for heavy Saturn aspects but Saturn/Mars contacts would indicate to me the possibility of a surgery more than any financial situation other than possibly an inheritance (and it is applying so the tension with that aspect will build until after it becomes exact.) Of course 3 degrees of Saturn is not going to be happening in one week.

    So all-in-all I expect a green week for ME based on transits to my natal chart. I would be interested in studying the stystem you use which predicts for the metals themselves and not how investment decisions will break for a given individual.

    So, please direct me if you have resources I can study, Timer.

    To summerize,

    I expect my portfoliio to be green this week. I'm mostly all in heavy on gold. Because of Sun and Moon transits to my natal chart.

    I also have a trine from transiting Venus to my natal moon which can only help.

    Since my portfolio is all-in PM I expect them to be up generally for the week. I have very few trades I can make this week because of the three-day settlement period. Depending on what transpires overnight and tomorrow morning, I am going to go long 100% in my ROTH then when my settled funds are available in my Contributory IRA go long AGQ in my contributory. Do you want me to update trades as I make them?

    Best to you,

    Huxley Ann


    PS Please send me to the site where you learned astrological PM investing because as I have stated, I learned from a great mathematician and statistician who had no time for using astrology to invest in the markets and was dismissive of those who attempted to do so. He was brilliant and I have just come to use some of the cycles, different rulerships (eg Tobey taught, like G. Lewi, that Pluto rules Aries not Scorpio.) Of course you must be aware that the oil is ruled by Neptune throughout the entire astrological world. I made some good $ on OIL when Neptune was opposing my Moon.

    For all those not interested in this type of tool, plesae feel free to scroll on by.

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  17. Hey, why is everyone so sure the rapture didn't happen?

    Maybe it did and we are all dead and this here 'world' is all just a dream?

    I think I will start a movement based on this idea, and charge 79 bucks a head to join.

    Far easier way to make $$ than trading.

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  18. @ Timer

    Here's the chart I use current for this coming week

    Hux

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/53009571@N04/5747157828/in/photostream

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  19. Now that I have pinched myself and discovered I really do exist, I'm going to take a stab at tomorrow's action.

    Don't really know what happened in spanish elections yet, but my guess is it wasn't good for the socialists.

    So that means we sell off at the open, but barring any more disasters things calm down pretty quickly and stocks and commodities find a base not too far down and then we move back up before noon, and by end of day we might even see a nice gain.

    Totally guessing of course, but as a day trader that's pretty much all I do.

    (verifiation word: 'cellit', hahaha I might have to change my forecast, I think a higher power is trying to tell me something)

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  20. damn on zerohedge they released the motherload

    a TON of great free investment books:

    http://www.traders-library.com/

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/presenting-traders-library

    may have already been posted but it is very in depth, seems like a few hundred trading and investing books, even legendary ones, for free, in pdf

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  21. @ Timer

    Have you checked out http://www.sacredscience.com/store/commerce.cgi ? It has Carl's correspondance course (for some unknown reason) but it's emphasis is on astrology for market trading as far as I can figure out. I haven't investigated any of it though.

    Best,

    Hux

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  22. HUxley

    As I think someone may have pointed out to you, in your IRA you CAN buy something and then sell it again as quick as you want (watch same day stuff though), but then it's the proceeds from that sale that are tied up for a number of days starting from the day of the original buy. You might not be as tied up as you thought.

    At least, that's how it works in mine (Ameritrade).

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  23. @Huxley Ann,

    I came across studying of financial astrology from many entry points.

    From Jeanne Long I learned the concepts of planetary price lines.

    From classical astrology chart reading, I came to understand the aspect angles and their cycles.

    From Gann, I learned about geometry and numerology and their applications.

    From Merrimann, I learned about financial astrology application and cycle analysis.

    From Cowan, I learned about heliocentric cycles and the Uranus Pentagram cycles about the Dow....and applying the same principle, I apply it for gold, and discovered that it was to the T that the low of Gold on 31/3/2001 was 144 degree (2 x 72 deg) from its natal Uranus position on 1 Apr 1968. The day Gold started its London PM fix. Next 216 deg (3 x 72 deg) is in Jul 2019.

    I am now using the heliocentric chart of gold on 1 Apr 1968, to time the potential dates for gold movements. Specially looking at two pentagrams, with vertexes at 33 and 47 respectively.

    So in sum, there is not a single school that I learned all these from. I guess mine is a mix of everything above.

    If you wanted to know more, PM me at tbooncho@singnet.com.sg

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  24. Eric#1

    Yes you can and I was grateful for the fellow who posted that for me. HOWEVER, you can't turn around and buy something else until the original settlement date. In my contributory, I have a large sale of AGQ from Friday that won't settle until Wednesday so I'm out of play there until then. When, if things look good, I will buy back into. In my Roth, my settlement date is long past so if I can get a good price on Monday I will buy a large chunk of AGQ then. Frankly, astrologically, Wednesday is a better day for me to buy.

    Regarding coverd calls, I've been selling them for years (decades) and if you play it right you can get you cost basis down to zero or below; I know I have managed it on certain stocks. If the Summer doldrums set in we might make some good money selling covered calls if PM stocks trade trade sidewase or even a bit lower.

    I did get three very profitable "free rides" befor Scottrade restricted me to settlement date and so I'm not bitching too much; it's just a dumb rule.

    Best, my Friend, and DON"T post less (although I know how you feel and want to post less myself.)


    Huxley Ann

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  25. Re: Stock Liquidity in IRA

    My buy and hold strategy was because of misunderstanding that simple rule. My E-trade representative did not clarify the freedom of liquidity when I first opened my account.

    Once you sell a stock you get unsettled cash. With this unsettled cash you can reinvest it into another stock, with the understanding that you cannot sell the newly purchased security before the cash settles, which is 3 days. If you were to do this, that would be a pseudo margin, and retirement ira's are not suppose to be on margin.

    This rule can be used very effectively swing trading, or at least that is what I am thinking.

    Be careful to keep track of dates, if you mess up you could get a 90-day probation from the SEC. Or so it warns at least.

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  26. @Scott

    You will get 90 day probation the third time you do it. I'm on 90 day probation (at LEAST 90 day probation right now for it).

    I think I saw atlee say that the mess-ups and the probations etc would follow you forever even if you changed brokers.

    That said, if I feel I need to sell to minimize a major loss or get out with a major profit that I think may not be there by settlement date, once they free up my account (if they do) I'm going to break the rule again and let them put me on the next level up of probations.

    FWIT IMO YMMV

    Hux

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  27. Hux

    Given the commissions involved, what do you find is the point where the stock position is too small to make a worthwhile covered call sale? On my oilsands stocks, I have about 10k in each one and it seemed to be very very worthwhile. But on my miners, a lot of them are only maybe 2k each ( I have 20 names) so it seemed that the commission itself would be a pretty big percentage of whatever commission I could collect. Haven't done any yet on my miners largely for that reason.

    To put it another way, I was fine with paying around $10 commish to collect 200-300 in premium. But it rankles me to pay $10 to collect maybe 50 in premium.

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  28. I'm not sure if it's the moon and the stars or what, but this now makes 3 different eBay gold coin auctions I've won this weekend at really really good prices. Maybe bidders haven't adjusted to Friday's rally? Or maybe it's just the weekend?

    I've found some weekends in the past where I've really cleaned up with some great bargains. I think there's a lot fewer bidders on weekends (because people are busy with real life?) than on a weekday evening.

    There's a tip for you: Choose auctions that end sometime between Friday night and Sunday afternoon. I've gotten a lot of cheap gold and silver on that timeframe.

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  29. @Timer and Hux,
    Continue with the Astro Discussion. Wish I could contribute something....
    Looking forward to the New Turd site, where we can (possibly) have our own Astro Thread
    Darth

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  30. @Eric#1

    I got T (before the breakup!) down to a negative cost basis but I had a large holding (remember this was back when comissions were lots more expensive on everything.)

    All of my positions are larger than the ones you suggest (I invest in GDXJ and SIL instead of indivicual minors [with the exception of EXK.) Most of my recent covered calls have been on AGQ (precisely because of the 3 day settlement issue) and the premiums are good (but there IS a wide spread.) I don't base my trading decision on whether I have a loss or gain in the option I just buy to open and when sell the stock sell to close.

    Does that make sense??

    I haven't been selling on other positions lately but SHOULD have been selling on CEF.

    Best,

    Huxley

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  31. @Eric#1

    Yeah, who knows why these things happen? I was at the doctors office yesterday waiting to get in for over an hour. Josh won't go in (hypochondriac) but stuck his head in and said he'd just found a folded up $50.00 bill on the ground. When I finally got out and started climbing into the car I found a $500 peso bill (about $44US) flat on the ground in what turned out to be the exact same place Justin had found his $50. Seeing as how Banco Azteca was still open, we swung buy and bought two Libertades. I Wish To Gosh we had a coin store here. I know the ratio sucks to do it but I am WAY overweight on physical Ag and need to switch out of some of it for Au. That's why I made a big purchase of Sprott Gold Trust and GDXJ just to try to rebalance.

    Yours in prosperity,


    Hux

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  32. @ AFK a walk in the park and roll in the hay

    check in later.

    Hux

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  33. Hux

    If I really want to go whole hog on these covered calls, I may have to give up my individual miners and go with ETF's etc. just to have the critical mass to make selling calls worthwhile. But, there's a part of me that just loves the individual stories behind each miner. Hard to give that up.

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  34. @eric #1

    u can create a synthetic covered call buy simply selling a naked put strike at the same level you intend to sell the call at. you don't need to own the stock to do this and it is the same strategy with less commissions.

    http://www.theoptionsguide.com/synthetic-short-put.aspx

    http://www.callwriter.com/newsletter/synthetic-covered-call.htm

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  35. Thanks Turd from a far away place.

    I was doubting Bottom #2 after Joeka, Pailin and AtLee expressed fear of seeing Silver at 30 Level.
    But, after your reassuring last 2 posts I doubt we would go down that far. As you said truth is behind us, that is lot of positive energy from your followers.

    I am in India and my dealer told me that lot of Bullion dealers themselves have shorted both the metals as they were not expecting prices would reach this far. A lot of shortcovering is going to happen if these people (dealers) are going to sense that (Turds Bottom #2) downside is almost over. I was also told that many dealers have burned their capital (due to shorting metal) and that is affecting import of metal. There is delay of 2-3 days in getting delivery of gold and about 6-7 days for Silver. There is a jump in premiums too.

    Thanks again and really hope your predictions for next 2 weeks (and also next 6 months) pan out as envisaged in your last post.

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  36. Where can we find a good level to buy back some more gold, $1490? $1495??
    And silver? Testing $34? $34.50?

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  37. That had to be the best rapture I've had all year! I feel great and stuck my head in to see what's new.

    That weekly chart is taking on an ugly head and shoulders pattern???

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  38. I figure the push into 6/30 delivery date is when the prices will rise. No sense for the hedggies to jump in ealy and get hammered for days/weeks. Unless more turmoil and budget noise

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  39. James Turk interviews Trader Vic! Good stuff.

    http://www.goldmoney.com/video/trader-vic-interview.html

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  40. I think it's a tough call at this point. It all depends on where you slice into the pie, err chart when trying to justify a position. Looking at some predictive indicators like the Parabolic Sar, the Ichimoku, and the MACD on 6 month charts in most commodities across the board, the trend is still down, not up. But I think we're fast approaching the time where the next overall trend will make itself clear.

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  41. Eric#1 - I think the ebay sellers let their auctions ride more over the weekend as the market is stable. I bought 50 oz silver yesterday under spot net and I've seen a few gold bars sell "cheap." too. I think people adjust their prices during the week which creates slightly higher bid strikes for wins.

    Since the begining of 2009, gold does these 5-6 month bouts where it touches down on it's 150dMA and then takes off for awhile. The last touch was in Feb at ~$1300, so IMO we're still due for another touchdown here during the summer perhaps. So I think we'll see $1450 or so....which also coincides with Turd's forecast.

    Also since 2009, the CCI and the SPX have been tracking at .87 correlation. So if the stock market decides to blow off (say at the end of QE2), the broad commodities will also take a hit. Good article that explains it: http://www.zealllc.com/2011/ccirisk.htm

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  42. @SP

    To the best of my understanding, the ONLY options that can be bought or sold in an IRA account are selling covered call options. No selling of anything naked or buying of puts. At least this is how my accounts at various brokerages have been for decades.

    HTH


    Hux

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  43. Just remember: futures options expire this week, 5/25

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  44. You know, I've been paying attention to the POSX for nearly as long as I've been investing in PMs, and realized that I never bothered to fully understand what the index is comprised of. Found this simple explanation on Wikipedia this morning:

    The (USDX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value compared only with:
    • Euro (EUR), 58.6% weight
    • Japanese Yen (JPY) 12.6% weight
    • Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
    • Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
    • Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight and
    • Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight
    USDX goes up when the US dollar gains "strength" (value) when compared to other currencies. USDX started in March 1973, soon after the dismantling of the Bretton Woods system. At its start, the value of the US Dollar Index was 100.000. It has since traded as high as 148.1244 in February 1985, and as low as 70.698 on March 16, 2008, the lowest since its inception in 1973. USDX is updated whenever US Dollar markets are open, which is from Sunday evening New York time (early Monday morning Asia time) for 24 hours a day to late Friday afternoon New York time.


    At nearly 60% of the weighted value, the Euro seems to be key to the fate of the USDX. If the Euro collapses, the US dollar should shoot straight up. My head hurts thinking about the impact on the metals. In theory, gold and silver should move inversely to the dollar, but if the Euro really does collapse, 320 million Europeans are going to try desperately to convert their assets into other currencies, including gold and silver. And who knows what a Eurozone collapse would do to the interconnected banking system.

    Overall, it just makes me stick with my thesis that gold and silver are the ultimate safe haven investments.

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  45. wait, so is Turd implying that he had a swinger party last night?

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  46. I have an IRA and a Roth with Optionsxpress. I can sell naked puts (have to have the cash to cover it of course) put spreads, call spreads, calendars, condors, you name it. Only thing I can't do is sell naked calls. And no, I did not receive compensation from Optionsxpress.

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  47. If you have any interst in silver, you need to read Trader Dan's column here:

    http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

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  48. Stopped by my coin dealer yesterday, he had 24 pounds of silver in half-dollar form for a dollar under spot, wish I could have jumped on that one.

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  49. Hello all, I rarely post since I have little to contribute to this well informed community. But I thought the below might be informative:

    http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-55-is-available-Global-systemic-crisis-Confirmation-of-a-Major-Alert-for-the-second-half-of-2011-Explosive_a6520.html

    I heard about this on a radio program this morning. The show host is very bullish on PMs. He referenced this think tank, LEAP 2020, who successfully called the 2008 collapse down to the month. They are predicting that this summer all of the geopolitical and macroeconmomic problems will begin to collapse, starting in July. I thought this might be informative.

    Cheers,

    Eric #2

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  50. What a surreal world we live in. The only thing that can prevent the fall of the dollar verse a basket of other currencies is if another fiat system implodes upon itself. What a joke of a world we live in where nobody questions the fact that the central banks that run our monetary policy are all insanely irresponsible and demented. We sit back and wait for them to tell us how they are gonna shove it to us up the ***.

    I sit here daily looking at this nonsense and honestly I just don't see how the complacency exists. I guess it all exists because there is still comforts within society, so we are not at the point where people take a firm stand. I feel this day is coming soon as my opinion is on any announcenment of stimulus of any kind (housing, more bond purchases (who is gonna buy our bonds if they don't), etc...). This is when I think inflation will start to show its ugly head.

    Not only this, in times where the currency is devalued most, war is usually occuring. Call me paranoid but this whole Israel-Palestianian feuding of late with Obama commenting on it like he has any right to is insane. NOBEL PEACE PRIZE WINNER is provoking war.... can you spell WWIII in the middle east prompting China and Russia to get involved as the Western World comes in to defend Israel? God I hope I am wrong on this one, because I am only 22 and the draft card coming my way would be....

    We so desperately need change, and there is no set way to have it come upon us.

    The thing that really gets me is the people who already are not able to manage to live. While I sit here worrying about myself there are more human beings out there than not who are completely at the mercy of a power that has no compassion for the animals they herd. When we are talking war and poverty, it is one thing to talk about it and read and watch videos... it is another thing to understand what this means for innocent people in the world while we choose to try to carry on in our false comforts of reality.

    Not that anyone is guilty for success or trying to live/enjoy life, and I have no grounds to complain, but something is so fundamentally wrong that it is almost paralyzing when you understand the scope of what all of this really means. There must be a better way... why can't we figure it out. What is holding us back?

    This cannot just keep going like this... can it?

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  51. ScottJ -

    <------See Avatar. Get all your friends and family on the Ron Paul bandwagon.

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  52. History in the making:

    Gold, silver coins to be legal currency in Utah

    Anyone want to converse about this occurring, and what the advantages or disadvantages might be if all states converted back to real money?

    I'm curious what everyone on the forum opinions are on this if it happens.

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  53. Follow the link below to find out why the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange must be seen and understood as an extension of the Chinese government and its long term goals, and consequently, why it will not help create an equitable or realistic price discovery mechanism for gold. Not for now anyway.

    http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/why-hong-kong-exchange-will-disappoint.html

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  54. @ Silver Monkey

    Already on it...I am that guy with those bumper stickers....
    http://thehardrightedge.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/RonPaul1.jpg

    And my Ron Paul Revolution website..
    http://thehardrightedge.com

    @ Save_America1st

    Wild!!! There are sure to be wildcards in this path to a new world. I hope that unforeseen things in a good way help derail the insanity the world faces today. The answer starts at the local level indeed.

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  55. Scott,

    Totally agree with your points.

    Had a conversation about this the other day with a buddy. Postulated as to whether or not this was actually hell and we didn't know it.

    Not saying that I believe it but it makes you wonder sometimes. I wouldn't be shocked if it were true.

    ReplyDelete
  56. I live in sweden myself, somewhat secluded from the horrors of the Euro and the USD. When the shit hits the fan, i (naivly) believe that the shit will dripple down many places before i get some in my face, and for that, i am gratefull.

    A question to the ones of you living in USA: Why dont you leave? Seriously? This is not a "you don't like it, geeert out"-kinda thing. Its just that i wouldn't be comfortable paying taxes to a government that craps in my face and expect me to thank for it.
    Once the shit hits the fan, USA will be one of the first places where the splatter lands, so why stay?

    Sure, many of you got family and friends, jobs, etc, and i can respect that. But friends come and go, and your job certainly will. Family tho', is precious, so take them with you.

    ReplyDelete
  57. Victor Sperandeo on silver

    http://youtu.be/zS7ZKQ5dX5k

    ReplyDelete
  58. sp--Hux--Harald

    Thanks all,
    I'm in a Roth at Ameritrade. I'm currently approved to sell covered calls and sell cash covered puts. I think there is a "next level", but I figured I'd start out with the basics and learn a bit before I see what else they'll let me do.

    ReplyDelete
  59. @huxley and others
    2 things occurred to me while I was reading yours and others astrological posts and thinking that I have no idea what you are talking about and therefore it must be complete BS.

    The first was that when I or others post a seemingly Hocus pocus TA post and the FA guys go ballistic, they think its all nonsense just because its so unfamiliar and they just don't understand. It gave me compassion, thank you.

    The second was maybe I was too judgmental and what you do has validity and we could all benefit. Can you provide a little primer education because I have zero familiarity and to me it sounds like hocus pocus?

    ReplyDelete
  60. @jimmy
    Does Sweden have a nice climate? I live in the desert in Arizona so I don't think I could handle it there. All joking aside you make a good point.

    I don't even own a coat.

    ReplyDelete
  61. Thankyou so much to whoever posted this link
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U71-KsDArFM
    to the wizard of oz documentary - it is the
    most enlightening thing i have seen on this
    site or anywhere. essential for all interested
    in preparation for the end of Keynsianism.

    ReplyDelete
  62. Turd

    If you knew the rapture was coming...why did you not warn us baby turd's. I could have gone out and bought more cat food for us to eat during the end of the world. I mean you can't eat silver/gold but you can barter after the rapture... ;-)

    Pogman

    ReplyDelete
  63. As for the question of states / countries
    having a gold standard.Thats fine so long as the
    supply is not controlled by TBTF bankers who
    could use it to perpetuate their EE system.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Eric #2

    Hi buddy! You seldom post, but when you do, it's good stuff. Keep it coming!

    Eric#1

    ReplyDelete
  65. Hey Scott,

    How's this for a "civil war" in Spain:

    The PP (conservatives) wins by landslide, this means a stronger euro tomorrow, dollar down and PMs up.

    Good night.

    ReplyDelete
  66. ScottJ88

    I know how you feel. About all I can say about it is that I've basically been expecting financial armageddon since the Crash of '87, and I am constantly amazed at the ability of TPTB's ability to kick the can down the road.

    Whenever I get really worked up into a lather that the world is going to end on Monday morning, I've learned to step back and get a grip. On a similar vein to what Art Cashin (via Turd) said above, in the fall of 2008 I kept telling myself "The world is only going to end once, and this ain't it". A corollary to that is that no matter how bad you think things are, you always have to prepare for the possibility that the world MIGHT NOT END on Monday morning. Still need to do great at your job, improve your skills, teach your kids, buy milk and bread on the way home, etc.

    Not saying don't prepare. I'm prepared, believe me. Been preparing for over 20 years, but....

    Not sure where I started with this, or where I'm ending, but there it is.

    ReplyDelete
  67. look at my post may 20th 10:40 am hope people listened

    ReplyDelete
  68. EUR down against POSX. This is the worry I have. Euro weakness will give strength to POSX which will hurt PMs. If it wasn't for turds call I think I'd be out right now. Not setting turd up to blame, my choice, my money but nervous and will owe this one to turd.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Eric #1,

    At Ameritrade Tier 1 allows you to write secured calls and puts, and Tier 2 (Standard) allows you to purchase options. Everything else requires margin (the two levels above it are Tier 2 (Margin) and Tier 3 (Advanced) for spreads and uncovered options respectively), obviously not doable in a retirement account. I assume you have the ability to buy options. I know you don't like to use them but you probably want to confirm that you can buy back the options you are writing if you are in a Tier 1 account.

    Completely unrelatedly, regarding your did your silver/gold swap, what are the tax implications of this? I'm only looking for what the law says, not what you did.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Let me save you the trouble:

    ramboso said...
    shackleford/animal kingdom/mucho macho man exacta box and you will be able to buy more physical monday!!!!

    May 20, 2011 10:41 AM


    Unfortunately I was away-from-Internet for several days and I was not able to act on this advice, I hope I didn't miss out.

    ReplyDelete
  71. $silver, some information:

    Parabolic SAR - Friday it was at $37.07 Monday this will move down o about $36.27. When h eprice action touches this level the Parabolic SAR will generate a buy signal. So watch for this price point.

    MACD - If the market action continues it's current course over the next several days it should crossover and also generate a buy signal.

    ADX - indicates that sellers are now leaving the market, but we still haven't seen the green buyer indicator start to move up. Currently has a slight downwatd angle but not as bad as it's been.

    AROON - Indicates that buyers are still declining and now sellers are on the decline also. This is a good indicator and may soon show the buyers returning.

    If we look at SLV, which has very similar indicators shows that the accum/distrib that it is actually in ACCUMULATION even with the sideways price action....

    This information is for your entertainment only.

    Thanks TF for the wonderful work you do here.

    ReplyDelete
  72. I'm going to stop watching and just follow turd. Buy when he does and sell when he does. All I have ever done is shot myself in the foot. I'm very green to this stuff and not ashamed to admit someone is better than me. Win or lose my odds are better on his calls, that I'm certain of!

    ReplyDelete
  73. Evenin' all... Hope everyone had a nice, relaxing weekend. :)

    Anyone watching charts right now? Crazy action for both gold and silver happening... I know low volume lends itself to high volatility, but this is beyond the pale if you ask me...

    ReplyDelete
  74. We better be prepared and get physical gold and silver to barter with.
    http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/05/19/living-through-a-currency-devaluation/

    ReplyDelete
  75. Xaritas
    YEs, I'm Tier 1 for now, and yes I'm pretty sure I can buy back the options I write if I want to bail out of the position. I could request approval for Tier 2 Standard if/when I want to.

    ReplyDelete
  76. @ Jimmy

    I live in the Arizona/Sonora desert and while I am in a monogamous marriage, still look (lots.) I've never once in my life been attracted to a blond guy and everyone here is brunette so I better stay here ;-)

    kiSS


    Huxley Ann

    ReplyDelete
  77. @ Harold

    I never thought about having other option trading options. I'll call Scottrade tomorrow and find out. Obviously I can sell any covered call options that I've purchased because I do that prior to selling the underlying stock. Puts, I have never sold or purchased, nor any of the more exotic things. I'll check but basically I"m doing OK with what I thought was the limit available in IRA accounts.

    Thanks for updating me!


    Hux

    ReplyDelete
  78. Silver is up half a percent as I type this.

    @ LevelHead

    I hear you and am glad you found some compassion. From what I gather the way Timer and I approach the astrological basis we each use is as different as, or more, than FA and TA analysis is. I'm in communication with him trying to grok how he goes about it. My approach is much simpler, using cycles I learned from my teacher back in 1974 in Tucson for this purpose that he was adverse to using them for.

    I'm trying to figure out a way to explain my system (and it is only an adjunct to other stuff) to a person who has no prior experience with even knowing which planet rules (measures) which sign, angular relationships, etc.

    Let me think about how best to make it as easy for you as possible. OK?


    Hux

    ReplyDelete
  79. Xaritas

    re:swaps

    My understanding is that the law says you have a sale of one thing, subject to the cap gains rates for collectibles, and a purchase of something else. Further, I'm thinking the rules for like-kind exchanges are pretty tight, tight enough that most things folks here would be considering would not qualify.

    Tax implications, plus the spreads involved mean that swaps need to be considered quite carefully. I bought most of my silver at a GSR around 65, and was quite vocal on the blog about how people should start considering some swaps when it hit 31. But for small moves, probably not a great idea. And no back and forth either.

    If one wants to really aggresively play the GSR trade, it would be best to do it with funds in an IRA. :)

    ReplyDelete
  80. Eric#1,

    Sounds like you're spread too thin in the miners. I only hold 6 issues total. 2 gold miners, both near term producers and 4 silver miners. Of the 4 silver miners, 2 are jr/mid tier producers, the other 2 are explorers on the cusp of development.

    I feel this setup gives exposure to both Au and Ag with expected payoff from now out to ~5years. 2 with projects currently coming into production that should see nice price appreciation as they prove their profitability and two with a proven track record of performance that should still leverage gains to spot price of silver. The other two should be in production within 2 to 3. years.

    ReplyDelete
  81. The Peter Shiff vs the NIA debate and Ranting Andy's take on the matter.

    http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_kunena&Itemid=122&func=view&catid=12&id=8890

    ReplyDelete
  82. Lazy Lester

    Yes indeed, I am spread way too thin. I tell people if you get beyond 10-15 names you might as well buy an ETF to begin with. But, alas, I tend to get emotionally attached. Life is full of "Do as I say, not as I do" situations!

    I used to have 25, so I feel like I'm heading in the right direction in trimming it to 20. :D

    Sounds like we like the same kinds of stocks though. I posted my entire list back on May 6, 10:31 AM, if anybody wants to look it up.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Eric #1,

    That's what I expected, thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  84. This talk 'bout swaps has me thinking... Does anyone know if the Utah/S.C. legislation is restricted to intrastate transactions?

    ReplyDelete
  85. it seems that China has the GLD plain in its sights, as it plans to start exchange-traded funds, tapping rising demand in China, the world’s biggest investment market for the precious metal.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-prepares-launch-gold-etfs-utah-becomes-first-state-make-gold-and-silver-legal-tender

    ReplyDelete
  86. Cool. get to work hucks I'm interested.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Futures are such a lagging and unfriendly Market direction for sure, but if one was to call it at this stage...Down goes Frasier.

    ReplyDelete
  88. eric#1,

    I understand about the attachment to them. Still pick the best ditch the rest.

    A good resource for screening HERE. Tons of data and evaluation metrics on the miners.

    ReplyDelete
  89. Grains are having an interesting evening.

    http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

    ReplyDelete
  90. AgApe47,

    Thanks for posting that. I liked this Ranting Andy guy when Turdle & Turd posted that 'rant' from him last week. I think he is spot on in this 'rant' as well.

    Something is off here with Schiff. Some folks who appear to be on your team ..aren't always playing for the best interest of the team.

    ReplyDelete
  91. Turd,

    Great acknowledment of your technical savvy with silver in today's Jim Willie (Golden Jackass) missive. High praise indeed !

    ReplyDelete
  92. Wow! This blog is the bomb. Been reading it for two weeks now. The expertise by Turd and others is awesome. Little intro: Since understanding about inflation in January 2009 at 44 years old, I've been buying physical slowly and putting it in my safety deposit box. Now I want to venture into trading. I don't have much to play with (1-2K)but I want to learn first. Turd or others, how can I educate myself to learn to know what you guys know? Where do I start. I plan eventually on trading or timing and am prepared to lose my 1-2K for the experience of it to see if I can pick it up? Thanx to all that respond.

    ReplyDelete
  93. Why buy miners?????

    Ok, I get they provide leverage to the price of the underlying metal. Ok, I get that the point is to pick that one or two miners that have exceptional management that will outperform the rest.

    Here is why I don't like miners:
    The metal itself moves on factors like government deficits, relative scarcity, and inflation expectations. Well, the miners move on those same issues. But the problem is they move on these additional factors that the meals themselves don't move on: Corporate governance of those companies, company scandals, mine yields vs. expectations, foreign goverment nationalization (do you think this risk of nationalization is going to increase or decrease as the price of metals increases?), mineral company windfall taxes (similiar to the oil company talk that is going on right now in the USA and has already happend in Australia).

    If you want leverage, why not buy AGQ, UGL, DGP, etc? Futures and options also provide tremendous leverage to the price of the underlying if that's what you are after.

    Final point: Metals have been "hot" for the last 5 years but before then they were "cold" for 25 years. Do you think the best and the brightest and the most ethical young minds coming out of college were going into the metal space. I'll answer, and it's no. Maybe the young people going into these companies today are high caliber but they aren't in charge, not yet. They won't be for a while. You still have the old guard managemnent at these companies. Maybe there are some that are good but that is a long bet. I'll take metals double funds, futures and options as leverage all day long instead of miners shares.

    ReplyDelete
  94. Conventional wisdom was that a strong protest vote in spain would weaken the euro, even if that makes ittle sense, since I imagine the conservatives are (theoretically) more fiscally responsible.

    But so far just very small move down in euro, so clearly the results were priced in (I know I went long the USD in advance) so I'm betting by the open tomorrow or very shortly after the euro will go higher and PMs too.

    I'll be selling my USD here and going long some euro calls and CAD as well.

    I might even buy some oil and gold for fun too.

    I don't see a huge move tomorrow, we will continue to trade back and forth all week (month?) based on the latest pronouncement of some euro hack or another.

    The can gets kicked for another week!

    ReplyDelete
  95. Shill,
    Weather forecast for eastern corn belt not friendly for planting. Grains led by corn tonight. I'm out of the market now. Will look for an opportunity to get back in.


    Indiana Corn in Serious Trouble

    Weather Map

    ReplyDelete
  96. Art, your avatar is disturbing. I need to get one of those for sure.

    ReplyDelete
  97. I spotted his NR:
    "Shanghai to trade silver"
    Link: http://business.globaltimes.cn/china-economy/2011-05/657837.html

    With the HongKomg Mercantile Exc initiation of trading Au futures (http://www.hkmerc.com/en/market_news_data/today_quotes_news/HKG/index.html), I suppose it would be just a matter of time until plans for Ag trading was also started.

    The HKMEx Au futures seems to be following along the price discovery of the CME so I wonder approaching the startup of Ag trading i.e. with a few months under HK belt for Au, will Ag over HK have any impact. One would hope competition to CME & London would help to free the Ag market up. Time will tell.

    ReplyDelete
  98. @LevelHeaded,
    Actor Danny McBride as Kenny Powers, HBO Eastbound and Down. Funny as hell although a little crude.

    Not near as cool as SNL Turd Ferguson.

    ReplyDelete
  99. @huma: you could be right about the Spanish vote being priced into the Euro performance...but still think the true test of that comes when the European markets open.

    ReplyDelete
  100. @Art-think we could see over $9 corn this summer?

    ReplyDelete
  101. We're going to get over $2,000 gold, why bother with corn?

    ReplyDelete
  102. Turd,
    Would you mind putting up a help wanted ad on one of the slow days. Warren @ screwtapefiles.blogspot.com has put together a database of SLV bars and we want to expand it to cover not just SLV but other ETF's etc.
    He has put a huge amount of man hours and know how into this and is looking for some help to maintain and add to it.
    The idea is anyone can ask a specific question to test a theory and if you have the tech skills you can get the answer directly from the database.
    Thx in advance Louis

    ReplyDelete
  103. @level, I know but i think its good to trade outside of PMs as well

    ReplyDelete
  104. ????
    Saturday, May 21, 2011
    Silver - Intermediate Term
    There is a large bounce coming for Silver, but I recognized last week that it starts from lower down. I have had time now to look at Silver in depth, and my estimate is for a bottom June 6 or 7 at $27. Notice that the bottom target is at the apex of the 2 orange lines.

    The long term (several year) cycle is very bearish for Silver. In several years time, my target would be approximately $5. However, that would be the start of a long (many decade) impressive bull market in Silver. I'll explain this further at a later date.

    Silver might see a quick little pop, and that presents a nice spot to short. The first bottom at $28.50 might be as soon as Tuesday, May 24th.

    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/05/silver-intermediate-term.html

    ReplyDelete
  105. @Dave and Level,
    Trade the market where you understand the fundamentals and where you can identify a definite trend.

    ReplyDelete
  106. Ahem ...Level, I AM interested in Corn, and so too a bunch of other others here. Art's my goto guy on this and I appreciate his posts.

    ReplyDelete
  107. @bloomberg
    Apparently you are who I'm trading against. Lol, you are not going to be making any money.

    @Art
    I hear that. I've been dialed on gold for a long time (years) and was a bit envious of the silver performance in April. I understand gold and that is what I trade. If your know corn, then you go boy.

    ReplyDelete
  108. Just to remind everyone Jesus clearly stated no man and even Himself knew the time of the second rapture. God the Father is the only one to know. One of the greatest mathmeticians Isaac Newton spent 1,000's of hours studing Bible prophecy and made his best guess sometime before 2060. Hey just for fun. A little off topic I know, but try to prove God from mathmatics and science from statements and fulfilled prophecies of the Bible. The probability is God clearly exists and Jesus was His son. Most religions do not dispute Jesus existed only if He was God's Son. Just my beliefs, not preaching, just saying what I personally believe. I know back to silver and gold. OK, God defined wealth in Genesis chapter 13 when he declared Abraham was rich "in livestock, silver, and gold." We know from Scripture Abraham also received from God all the land he could see as far as his eye could see. So there you have it. Silver and gold are real wealth by God's definition. One other point. Wine is a heavenly drink. Jesus claims it will be served at the second coming party in heaven. Enjoy your wine on earth..... but in moderation.

    ReplyDelete
  109. @Joe

    I'm allergic to corn (I am actually, it makes me itch and give me heart burn).

    So, it's all yours, I wish you the best. Art preach away dog!

    Still think you are better off in gold but can't argue with Art's point about knowing it.

    ReplyDelete
  110. Dollar not rolling over. Euro keeping dollar up. Dollar could go to 77 or 78 ish. That is going to cool and delay the PM rally. Not saying they are going down hard. But they arent going anywhere until after the dollar makes its move.

    There will be acquistions and mergers in the mining sector which will start them up.

    @Art
    Liking the corn mkt a lot. Thanks for all your input in that mkt.

    ReplyDelete
  111. atlee, is that kieth richards? I like the stones.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Just realised I typed "other others".
    For a minute there I thought I was on an episode of Lost.
    Man I miss that show.

    ReplyDelete
  113. @Dave,

    With the late planting and loss of acres, the US must have a good corn crop. I don't think the general public realizes how tight our corn supply really is and how it will affect food inflation.
    For $9.00 corn futures, I think it will take weather issues this summer. That is a real possibility with the crazy weather patterns we are seeing. (and difficult to trade)

    Even with good weather, I think we will see $9 cash corn this summer. Like silver, physical corn trades at premiums and discounts to the futures. But most farmer corn has been sold, it is in the hands of commercial traders, grain companies. Remember that they are hedgers, and higher prices do not make them sell, but higher premiums. For end users that need corn, bidding up futures does not get them corn. They will need to bid up premiums. So for this reason, I want to be cautious and not get super bullish.
    The fireworks could very well end up being in the physical market with high premiums.

    ReplyDelete
  114. Level, that's the first I heard of corn allergy dawg.
    Is that a common allergy to have? I know some people have trouble digesting it.

    ReplyDelete
  115. @Bloomberg: $5 ?? Really???
    You're shitting me right.

    ReplyDelete
  116. @joe
    My nephew and I are the only ones I know of. I can assure you it sucks. Doritos give me heart burn and neither of us can eat corn on the cobb. Man I love corn on the cobb...

    ReplyDelete
  117. Ditto that on the Stones. Keith Richards rocks.

    ReplyDelete
  118. This just looks like the 120 minute bollinger bands needs some time to expand to create room for a move up. I'm not worried about the action so far. Gold 1510 and silver 35. Seems normal to me.

    ReplyDelete
  119. Level...my corny commiserations dude.

    ReplyDelete
  120. Watch the 20MA on the 120minute chart for clues. Currently at about 1502 and rising.

    ReplyDelete
  121. @TradingPaper: Amen brother! Silver didn't seem to find much stock with Solomon though. That guy preferred Gold.

    ReplyDelete
  122. i knew it another sunday night smackdown!

    ReplyDelete
  123. http://twitter.com/#!/mktanthropology

    MktAnthropology Market Anthropology
    I like $SLV @ 28.50. Seriously. Think it has a respectable chance of getting there sooner than we think.

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-KHoXHpqT1rg/Tc7QnzzgGcI/AAAAAAAAA9U/nyEgAEgAsSs/s1600/20666.png

    ReplyDelete
  124. andrewp: welcome to the blog. Can anyone share some beginner insights with him?

    ReplyDelete
  125. Machines in control tonight.
    Dollar up vs lousy euro.
    Sell metals. Sell copper. Whatever.
    Let's see what the morning brings.

    ReplyDelete
  126. @andrewp: welcome. Here are some starter links from our fearless leader Turd. I'm sure there are more but these can set you up right.

    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/getting-up-to-speed.html

    Secondly, we welcome all opinions/ideas, just maintain courtesy and decorum.

    Third, do not entertain Trolls. And by Trolls I mean those who come on here and start throwing their weight around, insult Turd and/or other posters and are generally douchebags. Do not reply to them and feed the flame.

    Enjoy your stay! :)

    ReplyDelete
  127. andrewp,

    I've been actively trading since February so I'm not far from where you are. What are you interested in and what are your goals? Some people day trade, some people hold positions for a few days/weeks, and others hold on for a year or more. With that amount of money you can trade equities (shares in mining companies or shares of commodity based funds), options on equities, or currencies, which include (with some brokers), spot silver and spot gold vs. the US dollar. With $2k, I think that your best bet to lose it all fast (or see quick gains) is via options on SLV/GLD or spot trading silver and gold, but maybe there are some penny stock traders in here who will say different. Whatever you choose get comfortable with simulated trades first.

    I'm going to paste in a response to a similar query by another user a few days ago, pardon my repetition for what follows. Some of this may not apply to you.

    BEGIN

    You can get a paper trading account with many brokers. I happen to like thinkorswim.com's platform and they have a pretty good educational section too. It's nice to have one account that can do stocks, stock options, futures, and Forex. They don't support futures options yet, which I think is the way to go and it is what Turd trades with.



    You can get real time data for free from:

    http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx

    and

    http://www.forexpros.com/charts/real-time-forex-charts


    (instrument is XAG/USD or XAU/USD)

    Turd's glossary is here: http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/turds-glossary.html

    

You can limit your Google searches to the site by including this in your search box:

    site:tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com

    

For example, to find the glossary I entered into Google the following, exactly:

    site:tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com glossary



    Standard disclaimer, nothing personal: this sport is a good way to lose all of your money, so if you don't have the time (or inclination) to do a lot of research on your own, you're not going to have the time (or inclination) it takes to do well. It's like a second job.

If you don't have a preparedness plan or physical gold/silver, well, those are your first jobs.

    END

    ReplyDelete
  128. @andrewp: you should also check out that Trader Library link earlier. Great resources on trading there.

    ReplyDelete
  129. is monday(tomorrow) a holiday is japan?

    ReplyDelete
  130. @ Bloomberg

    $5.0 ???

    ROFLMAO - Yeah and Gold will trade at $250 again too right?

    ReplyDelete
  131. andrewp,

    This "Trader's Library", as referred to in the following ZH story

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/presenting-traders-library

    is an incredible collection of free copies of trading books, etc. I wish I knew about this a few years ago...

    There is too much info for you there, but just about every trading book I've ever bought is there in pdf format. It would take a few lifetimes to read it all.

    I've never read books that focus exclusively on trading gold and silver. They might be amongst the collection at Trader's Library. Maybe someone else can comment on that.

    ReplyDelete
  132. Nad123,
    no holiday in Japan today (Monday)

    ReplyDelete
  133. I'm starting to think that this Spanish vote and the EUR weakness is not completely priced in.

    Sydney did a really nice job earlier but the rest of Asia is still in bed it seems.

    @Nad123: Japan markets are OPEN.

    ReplyDelete
  134. @Joeka

    Yeah, I think you are right, I mighta jumped the gun there, euro starting to feel the effects a bit more now.

    I guess you have to think this might be a good time to test 1.40 eur/usd? That's not all that far away.

    I would definitely take a punt and buy some euros at 1.40, well just some calls to really limit my exposure to a greece 'reprofiling'.

    I still expect a rebound at some point tomorrow when the world doesn't end. But as short term trader I reserve the right to change my mind 6 times in 10 minutes.

    ReplyDelete
  135. Scottj88,

    we were brainstorming last week on the HKMEx gold contract and its impact. Not sure if you've seen this, but here is one viewpoint:

    Why The Hong Kong Exchange Will Disappoint, For Now Anyway

    The Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange must be seen and understood as an extension of the Chinese government and its long term goals. Contrary to what many are hoping for, the newly opened exchange will not overwhelm, or even neutralize, the price manipulation of gold occurring on the COMEX (and LBMA), nor will it help create an equitable or realistic price discovery mechanism for gold. Not for now anyway.

    Although some have greeted the opening of the Hong Kong exchange with much anticipation, one must remember that, compared to other entities active in the Hong Kong market, HSBC and the Chinese government have a deciding influence on the "price discovery" mechanism of gold in Hong Kong. HSBC (which is said to be part of the banking cartel that is manipulating the price of precious metals) has no interest in seeing the price of gold or silver go up.

    More importantly, although the Chinese government is seen as bullish on gold and silver, the fact is that it also has no interest in seeing the price of gold or silver tick upwards, especially as long as it (the Chinese government) continues to fervently amass gold and silver at cheap prices.

    Furthermore, the Chinese government wants gold (and silver) to remain relatively inexpensive so that its citizens can--as the government has been encouraging them to do--accumulate more of both as a hedge against inflation.

    Finally, let's remember that the Chinese government is profiting from a trade relationship with the US that hinges on stability in the financial and currency markets.

    For different reasons then, the Chinese government, the US government, and banks throughout the world are--for now--aligned in their wish to keep the price of gold and silver as low as possible. This wish will make itself felt in the "price discovery" mechanism as it plays out in Hong Kong.

    The most likely reason why this alliance would become unglued is because China finally decides to throw its weight behind higher prices in gold and silver in order to damage or even crash the US dollar. This may very well be their long-term strategy so that the Renminbi gains ground as a currency powerhouse, but the Chinese government is unlikely to shift gears for a while because it is still accumulating the bullion required to support a powerful, gold-backed Renminbi. For now, China seems content to buy less of, and divest itself of, US Treasuries in order to buy physical gold and silver. The second punch of a "one-two punch" would be when China actively supports price increases of gold and silver, whether to help crash the Dollar, create a global currency, offer the Renminbi as a viable alternative to the US dollar, or all of the above.

    Source:
    http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/why-hong-kong-exchange-will-disappoint.html

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  136. Thanks to whoever put the link to Traders Library...

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  137. Like it or not, we are all in the game of exchanging dollars for PMs. You shouldn't ignore the potential for a dollar rally in your trading/purchasing plans.

    Although, PMs and USDX were up together on Friday, which is odd. May be everyone abandoning the Euro for anything available.

    Cash is doing well right now. Stock market will crump again tomorrow based on dollar strength. Still looking for a good short entry point on the stock market, but I'm not hopeful.

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  138. Saturday night live, last show of the season.
    Opening skit is ex IMF chief in prison. Two convicts talking about the Euro situation.
    "What about Portugal?"
    "Dog you know I don't give a sht for Portugal!"
    "Portugal is the dingleberry hanging on Spain's nut sack"

    funny stuff.

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  139. @huma: hey talking about 1.4000, strangely this just came up over my Dow Jones newswire.

    0201 GMT [Dow Jones] The EUR/USD may fall below 1.4000 this week amid ongoing concerns that Greek debt problems may spread to other peripheral nations, while uncertainties over the European economy suggest that the ECB won't have a reason to justify an immediate rate hike, says Yoshio Yoshida, a trader at Mizuho Trust and Banking Co. "The euro is likely to search for the bottom this week as Greek debt woes appear to be spreading to other countries," Yoshida says.

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  140. Blorf - if i couldnt win on a damn overnight hold on some silver calls near the peak, im hoping i can at least win on some overnight puts on SPY here. Im hoping to sell somewhere at some new low early this week and buy more puts on any future stock rallies.

    Ive been rather conflicted over the bone readings of the turd as of late and the signs of (zombie) life finally reanimating the POSX - I had a feeling it would be breaking 76 before it went back below 74, looks like its going back up tonight. Im thankful in a way i guess that Commodities have dropped so hard that its hard to imagine them dropping too much lower here, but the markets havent had that type of sell off yet, so i was imagining theyd all be playing catch up pretty soon on the sell side.

    WDIK

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  141. This is further to Turdle's reply to Scottj

    All central banks main purpose is to keep pushing paper and discredit metal. Hugo salinas Price on KWN stated the same. Mexican CB bought metal but the question remains "where it is?" is it a paper certificate from BOE? or sitting in CB's vault.

    The same goes with Indian RBI (Indian CB) buying 200 tons last year. Is that a paper certificate or if it is not where is the metal? No CB would answer this question.

    Indian MCX.com is totally linked with COMEX (I feel). Even it's CEO is an American/UK with track record from World Bank. Here is a link to his profile: http://www.mcxindia.com/mediaroom/mediakit/ProfileMD.htm

    As far as Indian MCX.com is concerned they followed all 5 margin hikes without any delay nor giving any explanation to investors and traders.

    As far corruption in high places is concerned Indians are not far behind their counterparts in Europe and Americas.

    So like Chinese govt. even Indian govt and CB would like to keep prices to metal low. It's the push from general public would explode the prices.

    Many would not know that Indians have to pay wealth tax of 1% per year for amassing bullion in excess of $66666. So govt discourages people holding paper and turn to metal.

    So, HK metal exchange could be another scheme in extend and pretend game by EE.

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  142. @JoeKa

    I'm not a fan of the euro, I am sure Greece is going to default, and then Ireland, not sure about the rest, or should I say the timing of the rest.

    But I don't think that happens this week.

    I got talked out of shorting the euro at 1.50, although I did short some other currencies at the same time, but now I think 1.40 should be a tough level to break, and for at least a short term trade I like it.

    I would not be surprised to see 1.38 though...it's certainly possible. I'm taking profits on a long dollar position that makes me uneasy, so I don't mind being early, and I will add to my position all the way down, if I can be so lucky.

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  143. Art,

    Had one helluva storm on the southwest ohio/southeast Ididiana border this evening. Any farmer who doesn't have his corn in the ground is finished. It's soybeans time instead. Problem is, many farmers in this part of the country were hoping to plant this week. Not going to happen.

    Ten day forecast calls for ten days of rain. This is the worst spring ever.

    I have never played the ag commodities. Gotta be a way to play this.

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  144. Sunday night/Monday morning has not been kind to pm prices of late. Tonight appears to be no exception. Turd notwithstanding, lots of folks still think 29.60 silver is possible.

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  145. There has been ample time for fear (and for good reason over the last 3 week). Now is the time to stand with you middle finger in the air.

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  146. SSK, I hear you.
    Been watching the weather forecasts myself. Planting progress reports out tomorrow 3pm cst. 80% expected, this last 20% very important.

    Corn off the highs made earlier tonight. Crude down and dollar strength may affect it tonight.

    We've had a big rally last week, and not far off the chart highs. We're close to $8 corn.

    Will wait for some correction to get long again.
    Not gonna chase it. There will be opportunities.

    Got to get to bed now. I've got a day job.

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  147. @Level
    You have slowly joined Turd's Bottom #2 camp and not ready to show middle finger. Still Joeka, Pailin and AtLee are not yet ready with middle finger. LOL

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  148. @G

    It's true that I was not an immediate adopter of Turd's #2. I took issue with the certainty of the call, a few days ago, as nothing in life is "a lock" and it seemed premature and without confirmation. I've also said in previous posts that I think Turd #2 has a 75% chance of holding at this point. I'm a guy that lays bets on the favorite when I get even money and there are times when a man (and woman) of sound body are called to make a stand. I've said in previous posts that I sold at $44 silver and that's true. I'm a buyer here. Join if you wish. We can be friends either way.

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  149. @ Huxley, SP

    "To the best of my understanding, the ONLY options that can be bought or sold in an IRA account are selling covered call options. No selling of anything naked or buying of puts. At least this is how my accounts at various brokerages have been for decades."

    I have Schwab IRA's (Reg & Roth). I buy calls and puts all the time. Sometimes, too fast and get put in the probation box. :-)

    I cannot write naked options, though. Reserved for margin accounts, which IRA's are not eligible (so far as I know).

    - Jim M.

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  150. Ya Jimmy,
    there's an old bumper sticker that says:
    America---Love It or Leave It!
    It's just not that simple.

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  151. @Level,

    .30 smackdown while we are talking of middle finger.
    Am sure BM is lurking somewhere.

    I have decided to hold my position.

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  152. This smack-down coincided with Indian market open. Strong rebound from 34.60 on Netdania charts. Anyone is looking ?

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  153. @G
    yup me from India as well..just before the Indian market opens.It tanks..always wonder what causes it??
    Very strong rebound as well..

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  154. Be interesting to see what happens at 1.405 for the eur/usd. Below that and a much bigger drop possible. Euro gold should help keep USD gold in place, but with options expiration for comex we will be choppy into wed. it seems. But who knows, this can all change on a dime.

    @ Turdle

    Yes I read that article. So far haven't had much to talk about with the HKEx yet. I guess nothing should be seen as fair price discovery in this day and age, especially when literally everything is hanging in the balance.

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  155. Overnight raids happening... I'm hoping Gold, Silver continue to flirt with the support levels until Tuesday when the TSX is open so I can buy some more silver cheap! Tomorrow is a holiday up here in Canada, and I had already cashed out on Friday.

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  156. No biggie to me, I'm expecting at least $1500 on gold on a retracement (that's what I mostly trade). BM can eat my balls. If she crushes PMs, I'll short. My guess is we go higher and that's where my action is.

    Paper money turns into physical money and puts more pressure on. I'd love to make some money short to buy physical low. Double FU to her. I think the short money is done though.

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  157. G,
    Indian market opens at what time? One hour ago or 45 mins ago? (Now 3pm in Melbourne)

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  158. @Indo
    Are you trading on mcx? Hopeing Turd's bottom holds firm even on Silver.

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  159. @Turdle
    BSE and NSE (SENSEX & NIFTY) opens at 9:15 AM IST
    MCX (Commodity Market) Opens at 10:00 AM IST

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  160. @turdle
    Indian markets opened abt half an hour ago..it's 10:30 pm now

    @g
    Yup I m trading on mCX...it is uptill now

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  161. @g

    can u forward me ur email id??

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  162. Thanks G and indosil.

    By the way Euro-denominated gold sitting right at its all-time high here. Trader Dan talked about the importance of that a few days ago.

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  163. @Turdle

    yeah read that..was an important piece of info..his comments upon COT report is also worth a read..presents a favourable pic for Silver

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  164. @Turdle
    BSE and NSE (SENSEX & NIFTY) opens at 9:15 AM IST
    MCX (Commodity Market) Opens at 10:00 AM IST

    There is one more exchange called NCDX which primarily trades only in Agri commodities and it is also opens at 10:00 AM IST

    But both MCX/NCDX (I feel) is in control of EE. For example MCX silver margin hike were copycat upto the timing of COMEX.

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  165. @G
    should i take the request for your email id as a no?

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  166. yes not the first time recently we see a gap right at the mumbai exchange open. A new trend perhaps? @G I'm watching!

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  167. Not only is Euro Price of gold sitting at highs, so is the GBP price of gold.

    http://goldprice.org/gold-price-uk.html

    Mike Maloney mentioned in one of the first interviews I watched of his that "when price of gold is making new highs in all currencies, that is when the big moves will happen."

    We may not be there yet... but getting closer for some of the major currencies denominations..

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  168. The anology from Jim Rickards that both Euro and USD are travelers on Titanic and just shifting from Upper deck to Lower deck from time to time and reversing positions, is most appropriate.

    Both on Titanic and going to crash against Gold (iceberg).

    Also Jim Sinclair says the violence in both Euro nad USD is to create some Christmas Bonus for Bullion banks.

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  169. @silver bleve

    yeah it's a new trend..probably TPTB are slowly shifting their attention & energy towards INDIA.Ther's always a major gap downawards & a minor high prior to the market opening

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  170. indosil that makes sense if they want to keep silver below 36 as long as they can. Maybe they are using China and ee's playbook now to get cheap physical. Short futures and then buy SLV to be redeemed for metal later.

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  171. Silver 3rd tap to 34.60 but not out yet.

    Turd's firmer firmer looking bottom?

    Any TA experts here today ?

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  172. not looking great.. if everything goes to routine, it'll drop further once the US wakes up...
    Another test of high 33's again?

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  173. Silver downside in Indian currency is somewhat arrested because of USD appreciation and INR depreciation of about 3% from 44.9390 to 45.2890.

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  174. @G: Personally I'm not even looking at this as a "bottom" but rather the lowest end of the current consolidated trading range. You can see that this sideways mambo started approximately on the 16th of May when the bollinger's envelope narrowed and moved sideways. Right now the BB envelope is at its narrowest range since this date on the H4 suggesting to me that we're gonna get some sorta confirming move up or down.

    At the moment my chart just generated a SELL signal for Silver but that doesn't mean we don't get that support at the low to mid 34's. It also does not preclude we don't re-look at 33s and if it does it could fall around the mid 33s today. The RSI, Slow Stochastics are just confirming this. The ADX -DMI is above the +DMI with the ADX signal at a partial neutral with downward bias. The Parabolic SAR shows an uptrend but it's goes against the MA slopes which to me rules it out as being unreliable in this instance.

    The EURUSD went for the 1.4000 level just minutes ago and bounced right off. It would be fair to expect a retest of that which would impact metals.

    Also in play is the broad market sentiment. If it's negative it doesn't matter what TA you use. The algos will RISK OFF and sell everything. Except maybe your momma and pet fish.

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  175. @JoeKa,

    Thanks for very soothing technicals.

    So Gold and Silver are at cross hair is't it ?

    Looks like Euro Gold made it's new all time high just now.

    Are your charts looking Si @ <30 ?

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  176. @G: No I'm not looking at <$30 at the moment because I do think we get a Calvin on Silver before that happens.

    I'm watching closely the EURUSD, POSX and Base Metals performance particularly DrC for clues.

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  177. @G: Just two disclaimers:

    1. I'm not disagreeing with Turd, if anything I'm observing his analysis and acting accordingly within those latitudes and the sphere of my own interests.

    2. My trading account is flat now. Am looking for re-entry likely by today.

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  178. Wow, now would you look at the USDinker. That's a spicy meatball!

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  179. Heck it gained +1% ?? EURUSD is probing lower now at 1.398

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  180. POSX just broke through key resistance level at 76.


    http://www53.zippyshare.com/v/82609359/file.html

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  181. @CF: but the candlesticks don't look all that convincing though I have to tell you.

    An early indication that once again, this bounce will be short-lived.

    Word ver: antsoff

    (hands-off? Off what? USD? EUR? Silver??)

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  182. PMs doing ok considering the USD , crude not so well....

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  183. WTI is sucking eggs atm. I wonder if it'll reach into the 95s later.

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  184. EuroGold >1079.72.....on the back of
    S&P downgrading of Italy’s debt rating of A+ from stable to negative.

    Someone was saying that the attack on Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain is due to its Gold lying with NY FED.

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  185. Joe, if you look at the Ichimoku Cloud on the 40 day chart I posted you'll see the Senkou is crossed over into to an up trend.

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  186. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  187. wow 1.40 EUR/USD wasn't all that hard to break.

    DXY rocketing (well, for a currency index it's a big move lol) Do we test 76.75 when NA opens?

    Gold looking great relatively, silver not so much.

    I'll still be looking to sell USD right after the NA open.

    Wonder if GS's Stolper going to cut his long euro position and opinion now? Hard to see how that guy still has a job.

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  188. Hehe holy moly, 76,34.. that went fast.

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