Wednesday, May 11, 2011

An Unbelievable Six Months

Time to celebrate, I guess. It's hard to believe that it was already six months ago today that Mrs. Ferguson encouraged me, over lunch, to start this silly blog. In the time since:

1) I've written 395 posts! I've always wanted to be an author and that's certainly enough for a small book.
2) As of this moment, we've had 5,891,335 individual pageviews. 2,003,481 in the past month, alone.
3) I added a "donate" button in December and now I'm in the process of spending almost every penny you've given me on the development of a dedicated, new site. Trust me, it's worth it. You deserve it and it's going to be very cool.
4) Gold closed on 11/11/10 at $1410. Silver was $27.59.
5) The U.S. has added over $1,000,000,000,000 to its national debt.

Sheesh! Can't wait to see what the next six months hold.

Onto today, as discussed here ad nauseam, the PMs peaked overnight and have now begun their downward consolidation phase, right on schedule. Gold reached 1526.80, exceeding our target by almost $7. Its now back to 1509. Silver maxed out at 39.47, coming within 3 cents of our stated goal of 39.50. That'll work. I just wish I'd gotten filled on the on the July 45 calls I was trying to sell overnight on the Globex. Nuts.

Again, don't get all itchy to buy this dip as there is almost certainly a ways to go. I, for one, am going to let this play out all the way into next week before making any moves. If you wish to trade against The Turd, as many were discussing yesterday and overnight, do so at your own risk.

Let's start with gold today. It continues to be the "leader" as it has not had the wild price swings of silver and crude. (It also hasn't had any margin increases...yet.) With all of the uncertainty in the world, gold is still your best, and least volatile, investment. Also, did you see this today?
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=43439
This is definitely coming. Maybe not to a dollar near you but I am 100% certain that the new global or regional reserve currencies will have a tangible asset backing, be it precious metals, energy, land or some combination thereof.
I'm so certain of a golden rebound at $1500 that I will be buying June calls which expire two weeks from today. I'll also be buying some August.

Now, here is silver. Catching a bottom on this down move is going to be quite challenging as it will probably overshoot again, just like it did last week. For now, I won't even think about buying anything until we see $36.50. Once that is hit, I'll watch for a dip near 36 and, if I'm lucky, I'll be buying July calls sometime next week with the price between 35.50 and 36.

OK, here is crude. This looks like it will be dipping to at least $101, if not $100 or slightly below. I will be buying there, too. And please, for the love of pete, don't get caught up in the hype and find yourself short this greasy stuff. Are you even aware that another "Gaza Flotilla" is being planned for later this month? MENA instability is not going away.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/activists-new-gaza-flotilla-in-final-planning-stages-1.358249
Much to the chagrin of President O'bottom and our esteemed and accomplished Attorney General, crude isn't going down much farther regardless of how much they vilify traders and raise margins.

Lastly, the POSX has gone about as far as its going to go and now, with everyone from Santa to Bill Gross to Jim Rogers wanting to short the long bond, you can bet your batooty that the Fed will re-engage active support of the bond at the expense of the dollar.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/where-were-you-on-super-bowl-weekend.html
The index may linger around up here between 75 and 75.50 for a little while longer but it will, eventually, roll back over. Your first clue that its headed back down to 73 and 72 will be a break of 74.

Again, thank you for allowing me all of this fun for the past six months. I hope you've learned something and made a little fiat along the way. Have a great day! TF

389 comments:

  1. Thanks Turd. Keep it up, and kudos to Mrs. F for the idea.

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  2. The Turd is a Soothsayer!

    Your forecasts are spot on, the amount of time to get to them is the only thing that varies. I agree with a previous poster that everything happens 2x as fast as you expect (makes sense as normal selloff would take that long, instead EE selloff must be quick and swift to have effectiveness).

    Thanks for the showing the way,
    Look forward to the next 6 months,

    Scott

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  3. The question now is, how deep is this dip? Over the past 3 trading days we have formed a classic bear pennant... or using Santa's fishing line analogy... we have a fishing pole starting to let out line.

    Now, the price objective of a bear pennant is roughly the size of the up move (6) below the starting point (33.5). That price objective puts us down around 28ish. (Don't flame me, but please keep your powder dry.)

    Looking at past sharp runups and selloffs in the PM's over the years there has been a pattern of the second low going down to a lower support level, so I think this is possible. Trade wisely.

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  4. Cheers to Turd and the community! Looking forward to the next 395 posts!

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  5. Just listened to Santa's interview with KWN. KWN was stating that during the last gold bull some junior mining companies went from .07 cents to $500 etc. I would like to diversify into some gold and silver junior mining stocks that would perform the same when the mania hits. Can anyone recommend or tell me how one would go about finding these types of companies? Much appreciated.

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  6. Looks good to me Turd..Buying some physical on this dip.

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  7. Best silver blog on the web, Turd. We're all so lucky that you decided to marry Mrs. Ferguson. Congratulations on all of the succes you've had to date as well.

    I wonder how deep the next low will be as well. I'd be bummed if we don't get down close to $32. Given that the last spike down took us to $33 and change, $35.50 to $36 doesn't really seem like a double bottom. Kind of hope you're wrong, and that we'll get to $32 or even $28 (in my wildest dreams) before rocketing higher.

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  8. News ahead!
    USD Crude Oil Inventories
    Prev 3.4M
    forecast 1.1M
    Actual ?? 1430 GMT time

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  9. @gideon - "during the last gold bull some junior mining companies went from .07 cents to $500 etc. I would like to diversify into some gold and silver junior mining stocks that would perform the same"

    wouldn't we all... ;)

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  10. Turd. Another great post and a thanks to you.

    Not only has your last sentence been true but I am sure many here are better prepared and have been able to help/influence members of their community to whatever kind of benefit works for them be it fiat, preparation, awareness etc.

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  11. I has been an amazing 6 months- longer for those of us who followed Turd back on ZH in the old days.

    Thank you so much for giving of your time, expertise, and good cheer. I am richer in many ways because of it. Gracias, amigo.

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  12. I hope I can learn the patience that you talk about Turd. My biggest weakness.
    Thanks

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  13. @Gideon

    I have found one can learn a lot about junior miners from this blog. Their is a wealth of information here. Also, paid advisory services like the International Speculator, Dines Letter any number of them out there.

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  14. Your looking to buy July calls, so you must not be concerned about a risk off move due to the end of QE2? I understand more QE will be needed before year end, but don't you believe the Fed will allow, and actually hope for a commodity sell off to reduce inflationary pressures?

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  15. Gideon,

    Welcome to the sado-masochism room.

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  16. Congrats, proud yet humble to be so lucky to be one of your daily readers..

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  17. If you have not already read this article, it is very informative.

    http://www.gata.org/node/9908

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  18. This is a chart of 2008 silver correction with last week overlapped. Seems to be doing samething.

    http://www.marketanthropology.com/p/chart-lab.html

    Took this from another poster on another site but think its worth sharing.

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  19. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  20. "I'm so certain of a golden rebound at $1500 that I will be buying June calls which expire two weeks from today. I'll also be buying some August."

    I'm relatively new to trading options. Can someone give me an example of the specific options Turd is talking about?

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  21. thanks for everything turd.

    Ugh - such a brutal drop before i could start trading. i held on to a very few number of calls i bought friday overnight last night thinking id have the morning open to sell before we saw some massive 10 am beat down. I planned to buy some 35$ puts then as well and enjoy some nice profit going down.

    I just got front runned hard, GRRR!

    now my strategy for this week has been blown out of the water completely.

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  22. Gideon

    Here are some links to get you started.

    http://www.goldminerpulse.com/
    http://www.321gold.com/
    http://goldstocksdaily.com/

    Good Luck, and be careful out there!

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  23. Hi, A quick note - I think you meant 75 - not 65 with regards to the POSX...

    Thanks for all your work - it is much appreciated.

    Kindest Regards,
    Llew

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  24. gideon,
    Graceland updates and Graceland Jrs

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  25. Since we are focused on patterns that tend to repeat in this market I think it would be be good to go back and look at the previous runups in gold and silver that made a rhino horn and see how they played out. They will look small on the charts now, but believe me they seemed huge and very dramatic at the time.

    I would like to think we will put in a higher low here and be off to the races, but this movie is seeming somehow very familiar.

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  26. Gideon-

    Here is a short list that might get you started in your research- these are ones I am watching, based in part on comments from posters here whom I respect. A mix of small, med & large, but in all cases, check all companies out for yourself, do your own research, and perhaps watch chart action for a while before jumping. Best of luck, sir.

    ANV, GPL,TRS,TRE, TMGOF, ARNGF, RPMGF, FVITF, SQIFF, FVM, GCC, RVMID, SVM, EXK,KGLIF.

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  27. Thanks Turd, Thanks Mrs F!

    Best Blog ever!

    A beautiful idea, your wife ROCKS!!!
    (your a lucky man)

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  28. On the end of QE--just who will be buying all of the forecasted $1.7 Trillion a year to be funded? Especially at the bargain rate of 1% for 3 years to a country that's on the downgrade clock by S&P?

    Greece? Ireland? China? Japan? Iran or Iraq? Perhaps Great Britan?


    KISS

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  29. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ron-paul-subcommittee-hearing-relationship-between-federal-reserve-and-government-debt

    Ron Paul Subcommittee Hearing On The Relationship Between The Federal Reserve And Government Debt

    No wonder why the Federal Reserve is in PR Mode these days!! Go Get em Ron!

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  30. Thanks to all my fellow turdites for responding to my question.

    Turd, you're awesome. Absolutely unbelievable call that Silver would trade as high as 39.50 and dip back down.

    Not sure about the rest of you Turdites, but I have my whole life savings invested in physical silver at about 31.50....hoping to be a milionaire and retire in 5 years :)

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  31. Thank you TF ...You answered all the ?s that I had at the end of the last thread.

    Very appreciative of all that you do. My thanks to Mrs. TF as well. She obviously has some great ideas ....This in honor of her: (She is your golden ticket.. ..hang onto her.. ;)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29_uSlEEPSk

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  32. I just come across this site few days ago and I love it. Keep up with the good work TF!

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  33. NGD and AUY are quietly bucking the trend. Gotta like these guys. Or maybe ring the cash register as I will be doing. TRE too.

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  34. Bless Mrs. Ferguson for her encouragement & insight. Behind every great man there is a Mrs. Ferguson. ;-)

    Markus said... "Doesn't change much of the fact though that his "insider info" is bogus."

    I think that was the point of calling him out.
    Darkness flees when the lights come up.
    Now if we could just get some lights on the US finacial sytem.
    #Evil

    rthaler71 said... ..."the study of forensics and criminal patterns I believe is far more important than TA in the Silver market"

    +1

    zzz28 said... "I was in Udorn in 1969."

    USAF?

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  35. One other thing...I live in South Korea and bought my silver in the Korean silver market. Although the Korean market generally follows and tracks the international US price, the Korean price of silver trades higher than the US price.

    When silver hit 49.71 in the US, the equivialent price in Korea was 68 dollars and I was up 300k. It all disappeared when silver crashed down to 33...I guess NO ONE was expecting such a severe raid by the EE....but I will not despair. I will hold on and won't be shaken out because I know silver will be going north of 100. Hang in there fellow Turdites, we will win!!!!

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  36. Gideon said...
    "I have my whole life savings invested in physical silver"
    --------------------------------
    Not trolling here, and there is nothing wrong with owning Silver, but there is a reason why children are still being taught that hundreds-of-years-old line:
    "Don't keep all your eggs in one basket."

    If you go back and read Turd's older threads you will see a number of Wise posts about other ways people are preparing for the future.

    -Mammoth

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  37. And away we go!

    (Note to self: might want to move those buy bids down a bit)

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  38. best-deal: Would you agree that EVERYONE now expects the trade you mention? EVERYONE wants to short bonds. EVERYONE expects a QE "pause" and a commodity selloff?
    That's precisely the reason why it WON'T happen.

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  39. This is a bear pennant...

    http://www.thestockbandit.com/bear-pennant/

    I'm not saying this is how it will play out, but I am wary. Trader Dan commented recently that silver looked like it was forming one.

    So, be careful and do not be too in much of a hurry to go all in. Lets see where this wants to go, as Mr. Ferguson is suggesting.

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  40. Averagejoe,

    What's your takeaway from the 2008/2011 overlay chart you linked too. It looks exactly the same to me. What do you think?

    SSK

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  41. Gideon: If it doesn't work out, please don't threaten to kill your self like that guy last week.

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  42. @Mammoth...

    I agree, but to me silver is in a unique and special situation and it's a once in a life time opportunity as far as i'm concerned. I won't be greedy...I'm selling at 140 - 200 which will net me a cool 2-3 million. And to mitigate risk I only buy physical...I don't play options or futures.

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  43. Turd,

    EVERYONE and their mother said to short the living crap out of silver ten days ago. And we know how that went. I kept holding just for this reasoning: the looming correction in silver was just too easy. But here we are. Everyone was right (except me).

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  44. Catseyenu:
    Yes sir. Rf4e recon jet mechcanic .Air America was also on that base.

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  45. And there goes the GDX.

    Exit stage right.

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  46. once again awesomeness.

    Your predictions are spot on. Following this blog is gunna make us all rich.

    only got into this last week and looking to buy my first lot of silver this or next week. reading this is helping amazingly.

    When do you all reckon we'll hit our double bottom?

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  47. Turd....no worries, i won't.
    We are in a secular bull market in PMs, that is undeniable. There are no guarantees in life, but to me this is as close to one as there is. My problem is controlling my greed and pulling the trigger to sell at 150 - 200.

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  48. To quote the saged Turd...we might need to kick some ass and take some names....an addresses. The corrupt assholes at the CME and CFTC may need to start hearing from us little guys. Not at work...but at home...give them a taste of how it feels to be fucked over while they live in their $5 million homes. There...I feel better.

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  49. Anyone wondering if the insider trading conviction of Raj (jury verdict announcement at 10:40) would have an affect the markets?

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  50. This action today must make one wonder if another margin hike is going to be announced tonight.

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  51. At this rate we will hit $36 in the next 3 hours....... and perhaps $35 by the end of the day or during the overseas trading hours.

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  52. ruh-roh! Turd's spidey sense is tingling... :/ That just cooled my jets big time...

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  53. They're pushing XAG down earlier than I expected, probing the buys around 36.50 right now. They may try to hit 35.50 for 1:30 if they succeed in breaking through.

    Good stuff Turd, I have to say that for longer lines, your numbers work better than mine. I'll probably still do some day plays outside of that - quick 50cent snaps, but you've largely converted me to just playing dumb and following you for sweeps :)

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  54. Turd,

    You're holding off silver until next week no matter what, right? Even it it were to hit 35 this week? It's so damn volatile right now it feels like stepping in front of a train. Same goes for gold and oil, but you may get your chance to add to those today!

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  55. Just moved my AGQ bids down to 185, 180, 175... seems reasonable with this freefall happening.

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  56. Thanks for the reply. With guys like Jimmy Rogers, Schiff and Bill Gross all shorting treasuries and rates so low it I recently got short the 30 year along with them. I'm 50% in (willing to double) and willing to hold this for about a year. Would you say this is a bad idea? I understand you don't provide investment advice, just looking for your opinion.

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  57. So why is it that Asia buys 3 mights in a row pushes the price up and then NYMEX opens and crashes the price.
    China happy to get rid of those dollars at any price or what?
    I would have guessed are markets would be following China by now.

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  58. Impressive POSX$ moves...75+ easily today.

    We may see the market sell off for the rest of the week.

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  59. Why is the POSX rallying so hard today???

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  60. kiwi

    not telling you to do it but, AGQ support is 199.50 then 181.03. Good luck. Remember, not telling you to do it.

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  61. Oil inventories up.

    Nobody had that info before it was announced!

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  62. A song for those frustrated by the innocent but clueless sheeple who’s eyes glaze over or roll when you tell them what is going on in the world and in gold and silver investing.

    A hope for those frustrated by the spectacular lies coming from Washington and Wall Street and the nonsense coming from their stooges in the financial media.

    A long-term perspective for those that have lost money on the short-term “correction”.

    Timeless lyrics from one of the best, if not THE best songwriter’s of our time… almost like the words were written about the world today.

    Fitting that they could also perfectly describe what is happening in the pm markets today.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCWdCKPtnYE

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  63. @ zzz28 The old man was a SMSgt when he did some time there as well as other places. Handled the BUFF's.

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  64. Greetings Turd-

    If momentum sweeps us to 35.50 today, are you a buyer? Do your projections also have a timing element- I've noticed you generally offer both a goal and an idea of when it will happen. My question- if your goal is met sooner than your projected date, which do you follow? Thanks.

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  65. @e736e346-32cb-11e0-89fe-000bcdcb5194
    Inventory is up becuase nobody uses oil, didn't you know that :)

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  66. Turd,

    Have to congratulate you on your accomplishments over the last months. You not only provided very good investment advice but also a very good platform to discuss it.

    Regarding the action, I don't know what to say anymore. I'm still very much in the green, HOWEVER, these markets have become absolutely and utterly unreadable to me.

    - 2 weeks ago the COT report showed a dramatic reduction in commercial short positions. Hugely bullish sign. What followed was the biggest 2 week decline silver ever had.

    - Monday's open interest showed up around 124k, down 5k from last Friday. Obvious short covering again, again very bullish. Today, down we go!

    What's next, Bernanke giving every citizen a million bucks and silver subsequently going to 0,1 next day?

    Well, seems the EE frustrated me short term with their combination of predictable unpredictability and unpredictable predictability. All they could hope to ever accomplish long term though is to make me go 100% physical.

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  67. atlee-

    Thanks for the headsup... I may take most of my bids off the table, this looks like a serious downtrend.

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  68. @capesquad
    Can't speak for the Turd, but my interpretation, which I'm applying, is that the rest of this week is dangerous, so TIME trumps price right now. If 35.50 is hit today, I'd expect Turd to lower his goal to something more in line with Monday buying. But I may be wrong :)

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  69. @Kiwi

    I already have AGQ that I can't sell untill tomorrow (3 day free ride shit.) I have plenty of dry powder, though, so I am putting a bid in for AGQ at $180 then if that takes will try for another slice at $170.

    @Eric#1 Timmons smells fishy. You're right about the Juniors trotting out every damn perceived benefit and shoving it under stockholder's noses and how would they not bring up the re-milling angle? Also I would be wary of any company who didn't answer my inquiries. I've been often in touch with CEF over the years and they never are slackers in getting back or giving answers. Same goes for their newer sister funds, GTU and SVRZF. I'm assuming you're phoning the Canadian headquarters and not down here in Mexico? If you're phoning Mexico you have to expect to NOT get any reply and be astonished if you do get one.

    Good luck. Let us know how it goes, Man.

    Huxley Ann

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  70. Thanks again Turd. It's been a great 6 months.

    Cant wait for Halloween. I know who I'm going as!

    TF,

    If there is indeed a margin hike coming, how would this alter your prediction (if at all)? Should we be expecting to go even lower or do you still expect to see some buying at 36?

    tyty

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  71. This has probably been discussed ad nauseum, but as a neophyte it suddenly occurred to me:

    The EE has a hard time shorting physical, because, of course, if enough people stand for delivery, then the EE's carry costs become very high indeed.

    However... there seems to be a general belief that the price of the miners predicts PM prices. Thus if the EE can depress the price of the miners by massive paper shorts, this will panic investors in the metal itself into selling. The carry costs (dividends) will probably be less than the profit they make from seeing the spot price fall.

    Is there anything we can do about this? Except buy the miners at these artificial low prices?

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  72. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  73. Exited NGD for a nice little profit. Kicking myself for missing ZSL by a couple pennies at 19.84. I'm looking exit TRE while green.

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  74. Holy Fuck, what a severe decline today!!!!

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  75. the speed and momentum of this selldown portends more selling to come. These steep patterns are tricky. A retest of the recent bottom and then a crash thru to 30 or below is certainly feasilbe now. Averaging into ZSL, as tricky as that feels, is a possible way to hedge core. I do not see the selling 'holding' at 35.50 and I am quite convinced that Blythe is reading this site as paranoid as that may sound. Whatever reasonable level of support is anticipated may well be cut right thru, again just judging by the timing,steepness and swiftness of this mornings attack. Just my opinion.

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  76. Congrats, Turd!
    It is widely appreciated what you do!

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  77. Turd:

    Thank you for replying to my email. It was only after I sent it that I realized I could/should post questions in the comment section so that you don't have to answer the same email 50 times to different people.

    So, what if we hit $35.50-$36 today? Would you be a buyer, or would you still wait? I ask because I saw your comment in the prior thread about a "bear pennant" and the possibility of $28 and that got me all confused because I was all set to pull the trigger whenever we got close to $36. Can you elaborate PLEASE!

    ...and once again THANK YOU! I would have still been holding on to my positions since Silver hit $49.50 if it were not for this blog.

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  78. Hopefully the miner indexes make double bottoms indicating a strong bottom. More likely than a V shaped takeoff (as we all acknowledge in Silver).

    The Indexes to watch (for me at least):
    $HUI
    $XAU
    GDX
    GDXJ

    All within a percentage point of a double bottom. Hopefully lower lows do not occur, as that would lead me to believe another round of bloodshedding is coming.

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  79. Turd, your calls are insane! I nabbed a put at the close to cover my AGQ thanks to your wise counsel and I am NOT looking at a monster red number this morning because of it.

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  80. $36.50 got hit pretty quick. Any takers yet?

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  81. this could effect the market greatly .... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vH2wrJ4YsQ

    VERY VERY INTERESTING

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  82. Turd, thanks for the blog and your posts the last six months. I've been trailing you since the beginning of the year and it's been a nice ride. I enjoyed the bump back up this week - sold before lunch (CET) but got itchy and figured I'd BTFD this afternoon. THEN I read you post today. Big mistake. Well, well with BB's printing things will get straightened out shortly.

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  83. @freddiemanic

    Not with a ten foot pole. The target for the bear pennant breakdown is 28ish, and as quick as we got to 36.5 I think we could go there. Just give it a little time and see what it does.

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  84. Thomson's perspective: As silver marched steadily towards $50, a modest wave of top callers and price chasers moved into battle positions. The waves were not that big, but they were there. One price chaser urged investors to sell everything they own and buy silver. What a moron. Where was he in the 1990’s when that strategy was still stupid, but at least a winning one. On the short side of things, team shorty pants went hog wild shorting and top calling silver from $30, as if it were a super bubble with silver guaranteed to go off the board.

    I never saw anything to get excited about. There was big HSR at $50, like at gold $1000. Make careful note of the following sentence: The loss of sanity point in silver did not come as we ROSE towards $50, but AFTER it declined away from $50.

    The “loss of sanity” theme for silver revolves around what has become a MANIACAL attempt to CALL the NEXT MOVE for silver. I would label the level of STUPIDITY now in regards to silver to be EXTREME.

    WHY is there such an OBSESSION with calling the next move in silver, now? Do these investors really think they know what they are doing in terms of timing, and worse, do they really think calling the next move is this IMPORTANT?

    The fact is that silver has already surged 18% from the $33 lows. You bought into the decline, and rang the register into the strength. The Graceland pgen TANKS are on the silver battlefield now, and both the top callers and silver to infinity bugs need to stay out of the way.

    Will silver go below $33, or above $50? Who knows, who cares. This reminds me of the DOW obsession at 6500. A virtual MOUNTAIN of investors became OBSESSED with shorting the Dow at 6500. Thoughts can quickly become URGES that get analysis labels, during certain times in the market.

    Turn down the VOLUME on the silver DIRECTION analysis cartoon show. The bottom line: I’ve increased my silver buy program to buying every 50 cents down, from every $1 down, all the way to ZERO. Prediction: Team silver direction obsession will meet the same fate as team Dow direction obsession. Oh well, at least the financial coffin builders will do well.

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  85. Turd, regarding another possible margin hike... Today's weakness seems directly tied to the POSX spiking. POSX is sharply up, while gold, silver and crude are sharply down.

    This correlation was absent on 5/2 @ midnight when that raid started. NOt saying a hike isn't gonna happen, but it's not setting up like the last ones did.

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  86. Stepping back for a second, it is interesting to me that we see silver drop harshly $2.50 in just 4 hours, +20$ drop in AGQ, yet comments on this board are measured, unpanicked, almost clinical. There have been times here when a 80 cent drop would cause all sorts of frantic questions... This board has grown up! People are getting a tremendous education from highly experienced traders here posting sharing approaches and strategies, and obviously we get a ton of confidence from the roadmap TF lays out. Bunch of steely-eyed missile men (and women) around here. Good on ya.

    Ain't skeered. Dry powder. Gonna make-em pay.

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  87. Over the weekend, I was trying to calm down and reassess my losses and lessons from the experience. One thing I did was reading my favorite books ‘market wizard’ and some more.

    All the best traders in the book said the same words. ‘The best of handling loss is to get out, a key to survival’. ‘What’ distinguishing top god and the crowd is to honor the stop’. ‘When market is choppy, just get out’. ‘Average trader tend to overtrade, a sure recipe to go broke eventually’. Also Davas(how I made 2M) said that only advantage a small investor has against institutional investors is that he can remain completely liquid for long period. Even here I can see top traders like Turd/atlee et al are discipline to liquidate quickly while many others are trying to catch knife. So I can clearly see whom I should learn from

    With all the reading and thought myself, and Turd’call yesterday, I liquidated all my position yesterday. In hindsight, I should’ve liquidated all my position earlier last week. Sure, I recovered some of my losses by hedging/shorting, but I could’ve done better if I didn’t have to worry about my losing position.

    I still see some folks here are trying to catch falling knives. Best luck to you this time, but if you build ‘overtrading’ as habit then I am afraid it will do more harm than good in the long run, just my 2 cent opinion. I suggest everyone to utilize this time as a great opportunity to shone your trading/investment skill and discipline yourself. I also suggest everyone to read Market wizard( revisit if you did many times before)

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  88. SSK

    I agree and it fits to turd too. Being patient myself. Almost shorted silver last night. Just couldn't go against the thing that has helped me so much.

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  89. @pining - it's thanks to Turd, we were expecting this one.

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  90. @ Stevey

    I think this will only effect you greatly...

    VERY VERY UNINTERESTING

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  91. Hey Turd,

    Thanks for the great blog, I've enjoyed learning from your analysis. Can't wait to see how the new site turns out.

    Just curious, when it comes time for you to buy your silver July calls, which ones will you be buying? Im new to options trading so just looking for motives behind the actions.

    Thanks a ton!

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  92. @averagejoe
    Almost shorted myself too at 39.35. Having shorted two overnights in a row with small losses, decided not to try again. I could see it taking a nice ride up to 42 as easily as down to 37. For me 3 wrongs wouldn't make a right :)

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  93. @kumanari

    Very good points at 11:09.

    I hope turd is right, but I don't have a lot of confidence in this bottoming area - it could still double dip to 29 or 24. This would be insanity, but what hasn't been lately? In any event, given the technical damage, I don't expect time to be an issue when a bottom (which few will recognize, and I probably won't, either). Barring a major event (which could happen in June), some significant consolidation time will be necessary.

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  94. interesting to see if we hold the $36.50 level now

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  95. hi Turd, are you going to be doing the July Calls or later ?

    I'm thinking of going in with a July 40 and August 45 (?)

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  96. I agree with everything you said Pining! ...Seems we have all 'matured' into the manipulation and our thought processes have grown up about next steps ..which bodes well for our ongoing efforts at thwarting the manipulation.

    Level heads do prevail. I appreciate all here who keep me on my toes and thinking forward.

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  97. gideon,

    GDXJ is an ETF composed of an assortment of junior PM miners. Looking at the companies that make up this ETF is as good a place to start as any.

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  98. Congrats Turd-mon!

    Glad to be a part of the PM revolution with you brother. Can't wait for the next 6 months either...I'm a turdite for life.

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  99. word verification: belythre...lol

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  100. Few more quotes and thought.
    -Average traders tend to recover losses immediately. The most dangerous reason to ruin. Save you power and wait for better opportunity.
    -Livermore had only one chance to recover from ruin at one point in his career, he kept waiting until best opportunity arises like Cheetah waiting for best 10 seconds.
    -You don’t need it(experience). You don’t need any education at all to do it. The smarter you are, dumber you are. The more you know, the worse it is for you( Wizard: Tom Bladwin)
    -The greatest traders are the ones who are most afraid of markets. ( Wizard: Weinstein)
    -Marty chwarz at pit bull:
    -Bottom fishing is one of most expensive forms of gambling.
    Before taking a position, always know the amount you are willing to lose.
    Once my loss grows, I was reacting later and later, I was taking more risks, not less…..

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  101. Pining said:

    "Ain't skeered. Dry powder. Gonna make-em pay."

    Me too.

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  102. Its nice to have a down day and have everyone some what calm. Awesome this silver bull is only growing strength IMO.

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  103. I am not buying or selling any speculative positions. I continue to hold core only.

    this is so far an excellent technical pattern. steep descent, bounce back with decreasing volume, now turnaround to retest.

    turd u r the man fo' sho'

    the hardest thing about trading is the impatience factor. the rapid rise from a speculative position is like a hit of crack. once that hit settles in you want more.

    the only thing i've learned trading is to be VERY patient (i unfortunately still break this rule). most of my bad losses have been due to impatience. instead of viewing it as crack i now mentally visualize it as baseball. only swing at the nice easier pitches...or you will strike out.

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  104. Just call me Lester folks.

    "I'm not Lazy. . . I'm just tired."

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  105. for grins and giggles

    I am going to say for now 36.50 holds and we trade back to 38

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  106. ready for the $36.50 test, here we go

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  107. 6 month anniversary of residency in Turd Town?! Whoa, that was fast.

    Wow that Mrs. Ferguson is something else! Wife. Mom. Yogurt Magnate. Turd Inspirer. Can I PLEASE get your "Key Adviser" and Rainmaker protected up with Aflac insurance policies?! Not just for you and the Kids, mind you- - I mean, what about us??? :-0)

    Pining said it nicely. All I can add is my own thanks and appreciation again. Thank you Turd, mostly for giving us a place to come, trade ideas, blow off steam, whine and cry, and laugh. And laugh a lot, that is SO important at times of great stress.

    It's been a major boost to me and my psyche to know that you and all of the TT regulars are out there and living thru this alongside me.

    We're watching history together and commenting on it in real-time. To me, that's way cool. After 53 years on earth, I finally feel like "These Are My People" Sad, yes, I know. But there it is. LOL

    Sometimes I wish I could have you all in my day to day life, but this is surely the next best thing. Almost everyone brings a lot to the table while also checking a lot of personal baggage and outside opinions at the outskirts of Town. I thank thank all of you for leniency shown when I do stray. There's just so much going on, the whole PM piece is just a subset of a much larger equation that is being worked out.

    I think this feeling of wanting to bring one's best game to Turd's blog and fellow regulars and newcomers is the thing that really sets it apart and makes it so appealing. And unique.

    I feel like my time and energy spent here is not only rewarding, but is also a small contribution to the Turd Town group mind and our evolving perceptions and outlook as events continue to unfold.

    So yeah, way to go there Pardner. Looking forward to the next 6 with you and everyone here!

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  108. @atlee
    You tease! I'm taking the other side of that. We don't see 38 again until we breach 35.

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  109. ok I finally bought a put. hopefully i can make money for once.

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  110. 36.53....is she gonna hold?????

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  111. What an interesting day! It sure is when you DON'T have any open positions in an uncertain market.

    Sure can learn more about what's goin on without emotions getting involved.

    Thanks as always Turd.

    Going to bed.
    Asia, out!

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  112. Ooooh! atlee vs Pailin cage match!! I like it.

    I'll probably be sitting on my hands either way.

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  113. @sp,
    exactly, impatience causes over-trading, that's what I tried to convey at previous posting. Bright side is that we are in a secular bull market for the long term, and chance is high that we can retire early as long as we remain disciplined and with enough patience.

    I feel fortunate with this great learning opportunity with great minds at Turd town. Cheers

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  114. U.S. post has $2.2 billion loss, warns of Sept insolvency

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/10/us-postalservice-earnings-idUSTRE74976P20110510?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FbusinessNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Business+News%29

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  115. @Eric#1
    It's just on paper, I'm flat right now. Might put on a short if atlee's 38 is hit.

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  116. 36.28 This is waaay to fast too soon.

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  117. atlee/pailin

    Side bets taking the place of market action?

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  118. My reaction to today's "price action""

    YAWN

    Pining is on Fire today:

    "Ain't skeered. Dry powder. Gonna make-em pay."

    Words to Live by!

    Now hold your fire until Turd says SHOOT!

    Imagine the effect of the volley we can bring to bear once he gives the command?

    Oh yeah.

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  119. Dunno for atlee, but for me--yes. I'm waiting for a bigger bottom (ah geez!)

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  120. I will add some physical at 35. Will add more at 30 or 40 depending on where we go after that.

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  121. @Eric#1
    I know that :)
    Anyway, a true cage match would result in me bloodied and blaming Blythe anyway, KeithR is definitely the steadier hand.

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  122. ya I am just playing trying to make it interesting
    I am following the Turd Man.

    I have no silver position except some miners.

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  123. ahh so Turd confesses.. It is Mrs. Turd who is the brains behind the operation!

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  124. Zsl racing up into that huge gap above now from Monday. Would not be surprised to see this gap fill quickly.

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  125. crap if hits 35 today then what?

    turd r u under the impression that we are consolidating here for a while to bring a strong base from which to rise, hence waiting till next week? or r u happy with the technical levels triggered, regardless of the timing?

    just pls tell us when to drop our turds ;)

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  126. @atlee
    You and Turdlee saved me some potential losses today, I'm deferring to bigger brains for now :)

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  127. POSX$ Just hit 75 look out below.

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  128. SP
    Well over the last week I would have said quick bottom and I want to say it here again...so I'm probably wrong. I'm going slow this time.

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  129. @ Pailin

    Me too! I am so impressed with Turd's recent call that I am just sitting out to see what happens next.

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  130. FWIW, I imagine seeing medium-term channel (from 8/23/10) support around 34.7 -- where the midline of the channel tracks silver Aug - Dec.31. It also seems like the 1-min and 5-min charts bounce off the $0.50 increment steps (37, 36.5, 36, etc.) for a little while before moving inexorably lower.

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  131. Best deal said:

    Thanks for the reply. With guys like Jimmy Rogers, Schiff and Bill Gross all shorting treasuries and rates so low it I recently got short the 30 year along with them. I'm 50% in (willing to double) and willing to hold this for about a year. Would you say this is a bad idea?

    I like all thos guys, and am looking to short treasuries myself, long term it's a no brainer, but you need to pick your spots.

    When BB announced QE2 rates went UP, so there's a possibility that end of QE2 will see the opposite, although it seems very contrary and unlikely.

    What could drive rates lower TEMPORARILY is a stock market crash, maybe a euro sovereign debt restructuring, and a rush to 'safety'.

    That will be the perfect point to short treasuires, if it happens.

    I might even buy calls on TBT at that point, and I hate buying options (love selling them).

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  132. Hell, look how easily we slipped under 36. The BOS are hanging back for sure.

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  133. FOAGQ-

    Just took all my AGQ bids off the table.. this is dropping way too fast for me to call a bottom... wow.

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  134. Hey Turd, Whatever you do please make sure you have an "ignore" feature on users comments in your new website. Thanks and well done.

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  135. If silver gets down to 24 - 28 I am shorting ZSL. I think it is going to break some major support levels and scare the living daylights out of everyone. That will be the time to back up the truck, with a little short on ZSL just out of spite.

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  136. Slv gap fills at 34.50 so should be an overshoot imo and then possible 'bounce' at 34 area, who knows? Just my opinion. Looks like traders are racing to fill the gap having been pushed over the cliff by Blythe first.

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  137. The recent 1 minute volume on SLV looks like a big middle finger. :(

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  138. are we waiting for next week or for 35.5 ???

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  139. @stevy

    That Elenin comet stuff is complete nonsense. It's proximity to earth is listed in Astronomical Units because it sounds nearby to doomsday nuts, but 1 AU is over 93 MILLION miles. If it were 6 AU away from Earth during Japan then it was over 500 MILLION miles away and was further away than Jupiter.

    The closest it will get to the Earth (on the September date you mentioned earlier) is 21 MILLION miles away, which is more than 100 times the distance of the moon. The Elenin comet is also only estimated to be about 10km wide. This would mean its mass is less than 1 BILLIONTH that of the earth's.

    There's no science whatsoever behind the idea of something so small and far away affecting our orbit, axis, tides, magnetic field, etc.

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  140. sooo, you guys still believe silver is NOT a highly leveraged play on the stock market and economic recovery?

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  141. @ stevy

    I think Turds holding back till next week. I'm a noob though, so i'm just going to wait patiently for the moment before buying.

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  142. @humahuaca
    Oh yeah? And gold down at 1500 right now too. Because that's a recovery story also, right?

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  143. Pailin said...

    Strong dollar policy rules!


    LOL!!! No kidding. Silverbug's best friend.

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  144. I know we are all waiting for the double bottom..but today's rapid descent is a bit nauseating is it not?

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  145. I bet Turd he's been studying EE chart patterns, and read those as well, beside the regular technical charts... ;-)

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  146. Not many buyers XAU 1500. If we were going to get a sympathetic XAG bounce, it would have been there. I'm looking forward to see what 1:30 produces for both.

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  147. CME implemented a 5 min halt on crude, rbob and heating oil. trading has resumed. crude down 4 1/2 bucks.

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  148. my AGQ puts from yesterday were a great play, easy 1k.

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  149. I warned u clowns but u didn't listen.

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  150. Wow, it looks like CDE finally finding support @ 15% under Turd's buy point from March 4 when silver rose from $34.23-35.67. Not only that, it's fallen less than half as much as silver for a change.

    Anyone have any feelings on DAG right now?

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  151. Why Geithner won't be selling our gold

    http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/11/news/economy/gold_debt_ceiling/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

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  152. I warned u clowns but u didn't listen.

    ----------------

    Yes an Ignore feature on the new board is a must.

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  153. I'm not buying anyhing today. Learned my lesson (again) last week.
    When silver bottoms, I'll be waiting for it to break through it's first level of resistance, whatever that ends up being. Then and only then will I buy.
    Gold, however, I am watching very closely for an entry point.

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  154. I know I am talking too much today, but here is the most valuable lesson I learned this time.
    As often said “nothing is more painful than being out of market and observe the bull market runs”, it’s exactly the mentality cost me a lot last week and separated billions of dollars from commodity investors last week, i.e. we are just momentum chaser.

    I frankly think a lot of participants in this board has more or less this kind of mentality, and observed similar herding behavior at another blog I am subscribing(smartmoneytracker). It is due to my observation. Right after FOMC (April 27th), everything looked perfect. POMO continues, dollar continues to fall, and PM surged on that day. I missed the run-up on that day, and I got furious by not participating the final C-wave. So raised my bet on 28/29th. I’ve seen many folks at here and other blogs did same around the time. What turned out is that this was perfect trap set up by EE to ruin as many as PM investors.

    So my point is that if you want to survive in this game, NEVER ever be a momentum chaser. I would say “nothing is BETTER than staying out of market when bull runs, as it proves your patience and that you are not addicted”

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  155. what next week?? its already 35.5

    gave back 2 day advance in 2 hours

    happy bottom picking!!

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  156. Damn, I think I love AGQ options...

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  157. well I made $98 in an hour with my remaining cash of $884 buying a june 28 put.

    I am still in my loser positions, so on the day I am in the red -708 ouch. doing the wait and hold =/

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  158. @Turd - so you're waiting to see a bounce off the bottom, not the bottom itself?

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  159. @pailin

    I clearly said 'silver' , not sure why you misunderstood?

    So you are on record saying a stock crash will cause silver (repeat, silver, not gold) to rise?

    I disagree wholeheartedly.

    Not sure why no one here wants to go on record, seems a lot of hopium and fuzzy logic going on, I'm just sayin.

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  160. @ mc2560

    Based on what I have been reading here for the last 24 hrs, doesn't seem like too many of us were buying at 39, most have been keeping dry powder and holding fire till we see the whites of their eyes...

    The fact that you get pleasure at from the despair of others says volumes about your character.

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  161. blog4u,

    I haven't analyzed it so my reasoning may not pan out, but I avoid using AGQ puts because the difference between the bid and the ask is big enough to drive a truck through. You can buy 10 SLV puts for the cost of the difference. On the other hand, the leverage of options when combined with AGQ is like magic when it is working for you. In short, I have had good success by buying calls on ZSL without feeling like I am getting robbed by the market makers.

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  162. Turd - how low do you think we go today????

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  163. Thanks for the very comprehensive road map, Turd!

    I have one more buy of gold to make and as I write it's about 1500....not sure if I should wait or not...but will watch and see!

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  164. my captcha word?"

    "beatdon"

    LOL, you hafta admit that's funny

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  165. Made a little on EUR/USD BIG drop today. Close to record low now.

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  166. Rollercoaster!!

    Silver is at it again. Amazing!

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  167. Following the pattern if you will, 2 up days followed by 3 down days...keep this in mind before entering the arena.

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  168. Forgot,....Turd, you're looking for an entry point on gold..

    Recalling a 1462 point, others are looking for around 1450 ---

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  169. So glad I went all out flat on silver in the forties and turned it all into gold. I thought I was crazy for doing so at the time, though.

    The EE are clearly very determined to keep price below $36. They will keep pushing it there - and probably much lower - until they've been able to cover most of their shorts. That could take weeks, or even months.

    The EE also seems to be enjoying its new tactic of letting price accelerate higher before smashing it down. As I said last week: this could discourage/destroy so many PM investors that price could stagnate for a long time after the EE have finished their business.

    Gold on the other hand - that's so well supported by central bank buying programs (with 10-, 20-, 50-, or even 100-year agendas), the EE *can't* smash it down too much, or they'll encourage even more central bank buying.

    Gold prices look fabulously strong at the moment (all things considered). And as inflation rises consistently, the fundamentals get stronger and stronger. Buy gold, not silver. Give your stress levels a break.

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  170. Still going according to plan, a double bottom formation would be fantastic confirmation for longs. If you didn't learn your lesson from last week's shakedown and are heavily long without hedges, you could have another hard lesson coming when the brokerage makes that margin call to you.

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  171. Shit, I'm long an AGQ put so I'm rooting for Blythe and the Emperor right now, but... golly gee whiz, there doesn't seem to be a floor under SI today...

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  172. The CME are such fucking crooks.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/energy-futures-market-halted

    Update 2: NYMEX GASOLINE, HEATING OIL LIMITS NOW 50 CENTS, CRUDE $20. Basically the CME just doubled daily limits. Of course, the CME is happy to double the drops... but never the surges.

    Update: CME RESUMES TRADING ON NYMEX CRUDE, PRODUCTS FUTURES

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  173. Dribbling my traditional IRA, dry powder into USAGX, miner mutual fund, for the rest of this week. Sticking to my guns on decision last week that if we see $1445 gold and $32 silver, i'll be liquidating the IRA and buying physical gold and silver.

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  174. hey guys NFLX is up... Woot. :(

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  175. A quick check over at ino.com and you will see what a $USD carry trade unwind looks like. Everything is red...deep red. My bet is more unwinding is ahead. Silver was the recent poster child of $USD carry trade and had significant gains, so it makes sense it would take the brunt of the hit on the unwind.

    I've been buying silver since 2003 and learned early about its volatility. Whenever it would run away from its 200ma to such a degree, it would retrace back to it. Not sure we get all the way back, but it usually does. Be careful.

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  176. slicing butter to 35 already, how much more down risk???

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  177. @pailin

    I didn't think you'd like to make a stand. best to keep things fuzzy, then you can claim to be right no matter what happens.

    I am on record here (in several posts over several days ago) as being long USD (after being short for close to 3 years)

    Who's right so far?

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  178. Turd you are the man. I was so tempted to "buy the dip" but I resisted, and you were absolutely right... falling thru the floor.

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  179. SoccerDad,

    Did you check on how long it will take for you to get your IRA check? Will they be able to wire it? Make sure you know so you arent sitting waiting for a physical check or anything.

    also keep in mind the time it takes for the money to clear so you can spend it.

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  180. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  181. Soccer Dad-

    You might want to think about USAGX, they did great for me from Aug 2010 to the end of the year, but this year they broke my heart (if not my ass). They rarely got out of negative territory.

    I like the idea of USAGX, but the reality is that I invest to make money... so I shifted out of USAGX and into some more "traditional" stock funds. It's actually nice to own something that the EE is trying to boost.

    but DYODD, as always.

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  182. Oh christmas tree, Oh christmas tree how lovely are your branches.

    http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

    Shorted this @#$%&! since Monday...My BIL said I was nuts...yup I sure am .

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