Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Our Nascent Ascent

After the 3-day weekend, things are looking quite positive this morning. I know there were a lot of nervous moments back on Friday but those who hung in there have been rewarded today.

As we begin the week, let's start with the dollar. "Calvin" appears to have run his course and now it's just a matter of watching it bounce off of potential support areas. Nearly all bounce buying will be purely technical in nature because who, in their right mind, would be buying on the dollar's fundamentals? Seriously.
The PMs are getting, and will continue to get, a lot of help today from the crude pit. As we've been discussing for the past 10 days or so, once crude got past 101.50, it was going to be clear sailing to 105. Today's action proves that to be correct as I have a last of $103.10, up $2.50. The pace of buying will begin to slow above $104 and selling will emerge as we approach $105. I'd expect $105 to serve as rather significant resistance for a while as, beyond there, it's straight back to $109-110 and our esteemed and supremely qualified president has clearly stated his desire to keep prices down.
Gold continues to climb higher as it builds toward The Wicked Witch's hoped for double top. It made it's first foray into the 1540-45 area overnight and it will continue to ram into that area today. However, just like 1525, 1545 will fall, too, and we will head toward 1560. Beyond there, 1570 awaits and with it, all the firepower that The Cartel can muster in what will be a desperate attempt to paint a double top and convince their shills and disinformation agents to proclaim the long-term bull market in gold to be kaput.
Lastly, here is silver. As if on schedule, it is making its run to $39.50 as we close out the month of May and flip the calendar to June. I expect some tough sledding between 39 and 39.50 but, ultimately, the fundamentals will trump the technicals and silver will once again eclipse 40 and head higher. Our goal before the end of June is still somewhere around $43. Let's call it a range of $42.50-45.00, somewhere in there. Again, I would expect silver to reach that level sometime before "first notice" day of the July contract, which is June 30.

OK, that's it for now. Keep an eye on the headlines today as the Greek "situation" is just another step in the collapse of the Great Keynesian Experiment. Have a fun day! TF

Frankly, I'm a little disappointed in myself that I didn't see this coming today. Moving too fast, I guess, and I apologize.
After silver reached 38.85 on Thursday, the Cartel brutally beat it back 36.25. In rallying back, I should have realized that they would cap today near that 38.85 level. Bad Turd. Silver reach 38.77 and the monkeys were unleashed.
From here, let's look for an FUBM. Let's hope it is already underway. If not, another wave down should lead to the area of pretty stout support between 37.50 and 37.75. Either way, I still expect silver to re-group and test 39.50 very soon.

So far a very nice FUBM. This afternoon and evening, watch 38.60. Getting back UP through there should lead to a successful passing of 39 and then on to 39.50. Failing at 38.60 will lead silver back down to a retest of the 38-38.10 area.


  1. I have something special planned for June 1st. You won't want to miss it!

  2. Good stuff Turd thank you. Any more updates on the new site?

  3. Clipped from Dr. Michael A. Berry's --MORNING NOTES

    The Great Entitlement Abyss and the Debt Ceiling

    So why are we where we are?

    Well it’s really very simple. Over the years since the tremendous pain of
    the Great Depression this country has become an entitlement country. It all
    began with FDR’s "safety net" in the 1930s. This sense of American
    entitlement is entirely inappropriate in the global context. But it is the
    reason why we borrow and why we have the world’s reserve currency which,
    according to reserve currency curse advocate Lew Lehrman, is the curse that
    has brought about our current debt problems. Mises followers called it the
    "Curse of Paper Money."

    Today there are 185 Federal entitlement programs in the US. These consume
    50% of the Federal Government’s budget. They total $1.97 trillion (and they
    are growing) out of a total Federal Budget of $3.7 trillion (and growing).

    It turns out of course that fiat, paper and false philanthropy monies are
    false guarantees. You cannot fight wars on the gold standard. Both the US
    and England are proof of this. Fact is post WW II we have never really
    reduced our debt but kept the debt to GDP ratio in check through drastic
    productivity gains. These privileges were defaulted to us by the state of
    the rest of the recovering world following WW II.

    Nobody is automatically "entitled" by citizenship, except perhaps those who
    have served, given of themselves and earned their entitlement status. But
    entitlements must be sensible, sustainable and further not given as
    political favors. That’s where our leaders have gone astray.

    Three weeks ago I spoke on this topic for 3 ½ hours at the Federal Reserve
    in Arlington, Virginia (see my presentation on the web site). On the
    elevator with Kate following my lecture one of the participants
    complimented me on my presentation. Turns out this fellow was a senior bank
    examiner from the FDIC.

    He said, and I quote,

    "I really liked your presentation but you were much too optimistic."

    I was puzzled as any of you who have heard my increasing concern about our
    entitlement culture over the past decade of publishing Morning Notes will

    I said,

    "Well I thought I was quite concerned and pessimistic."

    He replied,

    "No I am a bank examiner and I am much more pessimistic than you."

    We carried on the conversation for a while but the impact on me was
    instantaneous. It was like listening to a shoe shine boy proffer silver
    investment tips or the taxi driver talking about the great Canadian
    migration to Saskatoon. In an instant the realization came to me. Everybody
    knows that the King (Treasury) has no clothes (borrowing ability) and that
    the banking system is still mired in the muck (balance sheets leveraged).
    But it struck me that perhaps I have been far too easy on the Fed
    participants and perhaps my readers even though I have consistently posited
    these sustainability concerns.

    Has our money gone bad under the assault of relentless fiat money creation
    and entitlement hubris? Is that the real problem? Has the reserve currency
    status of the dollar bequeathed a death knell sentence on the paper dollar
    and therefore the power and leadership of the United States?

    The answer, my friend, is blown in the wind, the answer is blown in the

    End of clip

  4. 9:48a


    Chicago PMI decelerates sharply in May

    May Chicago PMI 56.6

  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

  6. Dear Binyamin Shalom Bernake,

    Please could you give us some clue about June 1st...other than it being the first day of June.

    Feed scraps to the poor sire. We're hungry.

    Thank you.
    JoeKa D Homey

  7. lol @JoeKa! If he's really a Mancunian..give him a break!

  8. I can't give a Manc a break.
    I'm a Liverpudlian mate.
    It'll be like dogs sleeping with cats...

    I don't think so.
    Coz Homey don't play that!

  9. no big suprise @ macro scene

  10. Much4Him: We're still hoping for late next week.

  11. You're a scouser?

    Blimey, I'm surprised I could understand the 'accent'

    Surely it should be 'Coz homey don't play dat, do dey?'

  12. went long on wti at 102.27, small punt.

    will close at 103, pay for dinner out tomorrow night with the boys and a pre-birthday drink!

  13. Top o' the mornin' all. Looks like we're off to the races. Great analysis Turd.

  14. I felt so calm after reading this new post.

  15. Turd-- IMPORTANT PLEASE CLARIFY...were you suggesting MOO ETF or futures?? Also, are you still thinking we will catch a wave down again for gold/silver...you had thought at one point we would see gold low $1500 or possibly below going into summer...any changes to that?

  16. - Housing down
    - Consumer confidence down
    - Chicago PMI down

    - Stocks market UP!?

    If one ever had any doubt about how rigged the US markets truly are, well your witnessing it this morning live and in HD.

  17. Devise said...
    Clipped from Dr. Michael A. Berry's --MORNING NOTES

    The Great Entitlement Abyss and the Debt Ceiling

    My opinion is that our biggest mistake is the Foreign owned Federal Reserve. They are the enemy of the world. Banksters want to own the country. Now watch this.

    1913 The bank has no money. It charges interest on all our gov money. Why ? The gov can make its own money for free. In fact it was doing so.

    2008 the taxpayer bails out the banks. The banks forclose on the taxpayer house using the taxpayer money. The bank now owns the house. WTF. The bank when it made the loan did not give me the banks money. The bank gave me the money of we the people. the gov.

    Soon the gov will default and the bank will own the USA. Why. The bank never gave the gov its money. The fed reserve only charged interest on our money. Strange Ponzi scheme.

    We have been tricked by fake ideas of the mind in a scheme by the Banksters. We should just walk away from the paper FRN. Tell people to exchange their FRN for gold from the Federal Reserve.

    The contract with the Federal Reserve is due for renewal in Dec 2012. Of course all the politicians have been bribed by the Fed Reserve so there is no chance of not voting to give them another 99 years of scaming USA.

    The entire Banking scheme is nothing but a taxing scheme on the entire population of the world. It is the biggest scam going.

    Watch this video. Best Documentary of 2010.


    Every American must watch this video to know how we have been scammed. If they scammed us then we are not responsible for allowing them to win and take away from us our country.

    understand this.



  18. @MB

    Thank you for your health comments in the last tread! Very much appreciated. Reminded me to take a daily dose of oat bran and other suggestions I will consider.
    Thanks again!

  19. Bang on Shill. Was riding in the car earlier, listening to Bloomberg bozo radio.

    They ran down the list of awful news, capped off by the Shiller index numbers. Then immediately relayed that Dow futures were up strong and a great day in the market is expected.

    This is just another indicator that we are living in bizarro world.

    Own Metal is all i can say.

  20. According to CNBS, everything is up or down due to the Euro crisis..

  21. Go gold and silver. Look at the value comparison against other assets.


  22. Working off NCOT's comment....is the news in Europe that everything is up or down due to the Dollar crisis? Always handy to avoid a real explanation by pointing to something beyond our control.

  23. Turd, SWEET :-0)

    Some of my core Juniors are having a real nice day so far...

    Silverquest (SQIFF), 1.06, up 10+%

    Golden Predator (GPRXF), 1.21, up 10+%

    Minera Andes, Northern Tiger (MNEAF, NTGSF), both up 8+%

    Pelangio and PMI (PGXPF, PMVGF), both up 5+%

    Eric #1: Is Bullion Monarch still on a siesta or what? Would you add here?

    Irene: how are you feeling about Canadian Zinc these days? Is it a buy?

  24. @NCOT: when ur in da hood, you hafta speak like a hood. Besides, i'm only a 'spiritual' scouser. So I'm still lernin' at da moment so the accent is still farroff.

    saw ur note onda crude call. ace mate. 'ave a bevvy on my behalf ok?

  25. Good thing all this shitty economic data is transitory.

  26. terri: I was simply mooing, like a cow. It's the noise they make. Actually, the noise doesn't have many vowels in it. It's more like a "mmmmummumm"
    And yes, I still stand by everything I wrote here:
    There is no assurance that I am correct, of course, but it's my forecast and I'm sticking to it.

  27. Mornin' all!

    Thank you, Turd. Really. Your analysis makes ALL the difference for this trader!

    Hah! wordver: iredia (As in I read ya, Turd.)

  28. ewc58

    Don't know anything about Bullion Monarch. Sorry.

  29. Dear Mr. Bernanke,

    Would your surprise have anything to do with the solar eclipse directly over the north pole tomorrow?

  30. Turd said:
    "terri: I was simply mooing, like a cow."


    Classic! In de pool we call im de milkfella.

  31. I bought a few more Libertads when they were under 50 on eBay (sorry Eric or whomever!) and don't feel bad about them. They're not looking any smaller in the stack...

    When it was obvious in the fall of '08 that it would cost less to pay off every American's student loans plus all their credit card debt for less than the "bailout" (I still can't call it that without wanting to upchuck) - the Plan to as slowly as possible devalue what was left of the currency should have been obvious to all. It has been a bit like living in the Twilight Zone since then. I call it the Wile E. Coyote moment, and it can take years.

    Ol' Michael
    "...paper is paper..."

  32. @ Happy.. it was a joke.. everytime I look at CNBC and its says Silver (or Gold or crude) up on Euro worries, and the next day Silver (or Gold or crude) down on Euro Worries

    Lol JoeKa, up £15 atm, dinner in London, min £20 per head.. Drinks £6 a shot.. gotta love inflation huh!

  33. @ MOOing..

    Was I the only one that got that? on the previous thread people were running around like headless cows looking for the golden calf of tips...

    (you see what I did there?!)

  34. Wow - check out Rhodium today. Up 8%. If you think the recent silver massacre was bad check out Rhodium in 2008......boy did it get burned!

  35. These fools are dragging us into an even wider war. This will not be some "clintonian" bombing of an asprin factory momment.


  36. @NCOT oh I get the joke. Wondered if it's one of the ones you keep funny in another continent by switching the name of the fall guy.

  37. Back in the fall of '08 I remember thinking that they were just going to print money until they got enough inflation to bring house prices back up and make all that bad mortgage paper good again.

    Now, maybe that is overly simplistic, and maybe there's really a lot more going on than that, but I haven't seen anything yet that proves the thesis wrong.

  38. As we approach EE raiding hour(s), any thoughts on support levels for silver? Turd? Anyone? Exited a quarter of my call positions on Friday (damn hair-trigger) and looking for a re-entry point. Thanks!

  39. @NCOT: gotta thank wee bernak here for da inflation mate. put us on out on arses he 'as.

    £15 is bags brutha. unless u like dem fancy tucker at gordon ramsays eh?

    he swears like a dockworker i give im dat.

  40. Turd, do you (usually) sell your calls (shortly) before expiration, or do you sell them when your price range is met, and perhaps buy them back at a lower price?
    Stick to your plan and don't look at it is perhaps the best strategy, your downside risk is anyway limited with a spread.

  41. Weird how both gold and silver have been pinned for so long. Is there some pending news I'm not aware of that has everybody...waiting?

  42. The session here in the US so far today is lower highs and lower lows. Unless we make a new intra day high, looks weak. Area of support is 37.80 to 38

  43. Man! More good stuff from James Turk. I don't know what's up, but he's adding new interviews every day.

    This is an interview with James Grant, mostly about the Fed.


  44. @atlee: ditto. this action ain't convincing me nuff. maybe it will bore some longs into liquidating and take a vacation for the summer.

  45. Pailin. My guess is this: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/debt-ceiling-tragicomedy-resumes-todays-symbolic-and-doomed-24-trillion-debt-ceiling-vote

    An expected failed vote of raised debt limit. Means jack shit ofc, but people think people think its going to matter. I suspect we'll see a very very brief drop 7pm.

  46. I went ahead and took a new silver position at 38.5 - I missed the move from 37.5 to 38.5 but I suppose hindsight is 20/20 - there was a danger there that we (appear) to be past now.

  47. I'm not sure about this debt ceiling thing. Is this negative for PMs or the opposite?

  48. hmm, the only MACD I can see on my WTI trade is the McDonalds it will pay for! ..

  49. I've got tiny gold 1535.5 and tiny silver 38.5.
    Unless I see a convincing crash, I think I'm hanging onto these positions until they make me some dough.

  50. I just sold some SLV calls, both June and July. I don't like the feel of this action and am persuaded I will be able to buy them back more cheaply. If not CLV (en Francais)

  51. Newbie here, very level analysis Turd. did you get this monicker in the pits or what?

  52. Further, I may add a second silver if there's a raid that takes us back deep into 37s at lunch time. Famous last words :)

  53. @Pailin... good for you. I'm sure the Asians will bring you wealth...

  54. No way the house raises the debt limit today. Anybody else thinking of getting long the POSX overnight?

  55. I don't like the feel either for AG or AU. Sitting out right now. I suspect that part of the EEs evil plot is to initiate their activity at random times these days. Crude is up, the dollar is down, but metals are flat. hmmm...

  56. pt: TF originated in a skit from Saturday Night Live.
    Thanks for joining the blog!

  57. @NCOT
    Yeah, that's what I'm thinking too. Very small positions..I can afford to take some red to ride this out. Doesn't feel like the end of the (metals) world yet. But I could be wrong?

  58. While I assume most here read ZH, and the info is not that groundbreaking, there is a nice breakdown of the Mayday Massacre at the end of the report linked by Tyler in this article:

    The inflationary parable is nothing to sneeze at, either.

  59. Ricky, the vote is designed to fail.

    JoeKa, the raised limits is a naked one, no cuts, no strains, just pure raised limit. If by a miracle (or coup) the vote was to pass, it would be HUGE for PMs. It would be next to "QE3" imo.
    Albeit the vote is designed to fail, speculators might have a keynesian take on the matter, thinking others will sell, so they sell themselves. Its a longshot, but i'm holding off buying 'till i know.

  60. Full report link here:

  61. Attempting to know when the raids will come is futile. The only answer is to always be in a position to take advantage of them rather than be crushed by them. Their objective is to drain your funds so don't let it happen. Dont over commit. Have funds earmarked for raid opportunities. In the meantime trade as though there is no EE raid coming. They win when they have us always concerned about the possibility.

  62. Also, is it just me, or is someone trying to drum up mortal fear in the minds of average Americans with these headlines on Drudge:

    'I was scared for my life'...
    Poet 'Da Real One' Gunned Down In Front Of Miami Poetry Cafe...
    Violent crime explodes in Myrtle during Black Bike Week; 8-hour hell...
    Rib Fest At Rochester beach turns rowdy...
    Riot On Long Island...
    Urban Melee In Charlotte...
    Chaos causes DNC concern for convention...
    Unruly urban crowd shuts down Nashville water park...

    This is to me very ominous, as these seem designed to elicit open arms for our new police protectorate overlords.

  63. @Eric#1

    Just a mention that another member mentioned
    Silverquest (SQIFF) which (I don't know if you care about this but I would) is a Grandich client. Last I heard Grandich owned 2,000,000 shares of SQIFF - he still may; I no longer follow him.


  64. Not doing much this morning in the metals. Bought a bunch more of JAG at 5.36. After a big rally in the fertilizers went bust, I Picked up some POT and MOS. I think they're good plays right now.

    I'm waiting for HMY and TRE to get hammered. Then I'll buy some more.

    GOt to say, NGD is looking strong.

  65. @atlee

    Or another way to invest with random raids, is just to buy and hold. One's holdings would go up and down but if one really believes the end is awsomely high, in the long run it makes little difference.

    I've decided not to try to catch every dip and every rally. I'm just forming a sound portfolio and taking a long, long, siesta.


    PS Don't swallow any wooden swords!

  66. @atlee
    Real solid advice, same reasoning is why I put some buys down earlier this morning, even though on the charts we're only so-so. I've foregone a bunch of fiat for too aggressively waiting for raids.

    It's essential in any volatile market to never over-commit. As long as you don't do that, it's just a matter of waiting. There's no guarantee of doubling your money anywhere in 2hrs...why should we think we can always do that in silver? I'm patient enough to wait...up to 6hrs :) (kidding)

  67. EA, if you're on today, what's your latest outlook on Mountainview (MNVWF)?

    It's down 10% to 1.24 so far today.Is it a buy at current prices?

    I'm a believer in the Bakken resource, but I have a hard time believing large scale development will be allowed by the Obama admin anytime soon. Like ever.

    I know how badly we need domestic energy sources. I'm just saying the EE wants America prostrate, and Mr. SHS (Scary Head Scars) is simply there to do their bidding.


  68. Good afternoon, all. Couldn't post from home for some reason, but was happy with oil and gold hold over the weekend. Corn too.

    Out of oil, but still like it (haven't got a level yet -- too much distraction on home front); core gold still long, plus took some off at 1540.50; looking for more @ 1535-36.

    Long silver now as well, but small and nimble--of course, if I think I'm being nimble, Mr. Market humbles me, so we'll see.

    Anyway, thanks to Turd and all the contributors here.


  69. Is the silver raiding in progress now?

  70. @Timer
    This is general raid time, although it's more a walk down than crush like we're used to seeing. New plan? I dunno, but the fact is they've only shaved 50 cents off the top so far. I guess we'll have to see what sort of drop there is under 38.

  71. Platinum and Palladium are doing quite well.

  72. @ Pailin

    I think much higher levels are in the cards but I have a nagging suspicion that they are later than we are thnking. These mid forty predicitons are valid I am certain but the timing just seems too pat to me. Certainly the hedgies can come up with a reason to sell everything and provide us with a very attractive entry for longer term holding. The trap is committing too heavily looking for that 40 number.

    None of this previous disscussion is meant to influence anyones thought pattern away from your strategy. Please do what you feel is right.

  73. from atlee:

    "Their objective is to drain your funds"

    says it all about everything.


    drudge is lucky that no one takes the headlines seriously. that guy seems to spin just about anything possible to please himself.

    as far as debt ceiling is concerned, it will be raised eventually and i would bet that the second it happens, PM will fall on the news...only to regain new strength.

    interesting that the politics are scared to raise their own credit card limits b/c the parents are starting to scream. thkfully for them they don't have to worry in the long run as they control everything anyways.

    i lightened up specs this morning, as it is we are not that far from the 39.50 short term target.

    if it plays out relatively stable today i may go long a straddle overnight

  74. Animal

    Silverquest is not one of mine. I'm trying to remember if that was one of Ginger or Scott's babies.

  75. damn it all the talk of indian food on this blog made me order it. now i'll prob be takin a nap instead of working this afternoon!

  76. Looks like I may get a chance to buy in lower than I sold on Friday. I just need more patience....waiting....waiting....

  77. @Eric AGain if you care,

    here are his posts about Timmons http://www.grandich.com/category/grandich-companies/timmins-gold/

    His lead article today is about SilverQuest


  78. well, held 38 for a few seconds.... maybe not...

  79. Turd,

    Do you know the website link or source where one can find the calendar for "first day of notice" of various futures?

    Many Thanks for sharing the good work :-)

  80. I don't like the price action in mining shares across the board. Looks like someone is front-running a raid.

  81. Since I don't do patience, I bought back the July 35 calls. Too chicken to buy back the June calls, but might get another chance today.

  82. @atlee
    Yep. I'm only seeking 39.5 and 1544 on my present positions. I think we've got a fair shot of hitting them before the week is out. If so, good enough. If not, I'll ignore those two longs and look at where we stand on Friday and decide next moves.

    Mid-40s seems a long way away right now, but so did high 38s back on the 23rd. So who knows? I tend to agree we're not going there in a straight line. Fits and starts. And if I really don't like how things look, I'll just cut a loss and take some time off and enjoy the sunlight instead of the pc.

  83. @ssk

    exk vs ngd spread: winning!

  84. Ya. Your looking a little pale George! LOL.

    You are addicted to this crap and you know it!

    just like me!

  85. Animal, Silverquest is my baby. Following them since 2009, bought 'em last Spring. Own it at a very good pps. I'm well aware of Grandich and his coverage of them. Stopped reading Pete awhile back. More downside then up in my eyes. And if the man's awful grammar, spelling, usage, and syntax are any indication of the wattage available upstairs, run. Anyone can be right once or twice in 20 years. See Bob Prechter.

    Sorry Eric #1, I thought you were the Bullion Monarch guy...

  86. @atlee
    It's possible that you are not wrong :)

  87. I am bidding on some July GG calls. May not get them but it's worth a shot. Unless the dollar does a significant Calvin, gold seems to be near a local minimum.

  88. Turd, too freakin' funny! I did not know that's where you got your name. It's hysterical to hear Will Ferrel saying it.


  89. Waiting for the next leg down, should be a nice buying opportunity....if it doesn't drop through the floor all day... :-O

  90. @Kiwi#1
    I think the question is does this let up at 1:30 or not? I could argue convincingly either way, so I'm inclined to not guess and plan trades on it.

  91. @Pailin,

    What is the chance of seeing 39.50 today?

    I am seeing a big resistance at 38.90 today.

  92. Lets have some more positive vibes here folks... :) (and by positive I mean lets get the price up!!)

  93. Anyway...boring. I think it's time for some Netflix again, probably Sarah Connor Chronicles. Started marathon long weekend, just four or five episodes to finish. Then back to Rockford and maybe some Ancient Aliens tonight.

    EE can't bring me down :)

  94. Where's Hux / Bingo? Didn't he go short yesterday?

  95. On the SLV chart, it seems that the gap has just been closed at 37.03. Now is at 37.24.

    Did they raid Silver just to close the SLV gap ?

  96. thanks Turd...

    Todays show is brought to by the letter F U B M ....

  97. The best source of delivery dates and such is the CME website itself: http://www.cmegroup.com/

  98. what length r u guys using for ur 5min RSI?

  99. Got an Asian holiday coming up on Friday and Monday, I believe - marked it on my calendar 3/4 months ago - they beat the hell out of us the last time. Be careful! JD

  100. Trinity Blue works for Eaton Vance.

  101. Is that an inverse flag in the 1 hour silver spot chart???

  102. Herrma dahingiddy hoo. Verneh gooma dershnie!

    Turd, ongiddyboo.

    Hey y'all, Swedish Chef says "Let's Go FUBM". And then "thank you Turd".

  103. check out Jim Willies lastest podcast-you will love it


    the guy is so passionate and right on the money- no pun intended

  104. No pic, dang. Let's try that again :-)


  105. @ leonard

    Trinity blue is a paranormal romance novel written by eva silver. google it.

  106. SilverQuest has been on my watch list since ewc's mention sometime back. ..Not my baby but I *wish* I could have bought in before now. "/

    RVM is rebounding a smidge today! :]

  107. EVA is the symbol for Eaton Vance, and they recently got approval to trade a silver ETF.

  108. Molson Canadian and Jim Willie, awright!

    Gonna love having this dude around. You are welcome in the kitchen anytime.

  109. Just made a little contribution to the
    new site and feel really good about it.
    Hope to make it a regualr thing now I
    know how quick and painless it is (paypal).
    Question is, do I make a little top up here
    and Christen my spread bet account, or do
    I leave it an hour or and cut the grass first.
    Must confess to making a little disposal at
    38.55, when the chart was acting a little bit
    'heavy'. Got a couple of TA books in the post
    from Amazon, so I can talk tech in the weeks
    and months to come !

  110. @ Ricky

    I am long POSX now, and have just sold OOTM calls against my deep ITM calls on the CAD, so I make good money if CAD rises, but would prefer to see it dip so I can buy more.

    I am long POSX at a very good level, and keep improving my average, but really am hoping for a stock market correction and greece default to be able to sell at a profit and go all in CAD.

    Eventually these horrible stats are going to filter through to the stock market, and that should boost the dollar, bizarre as that is...

  111. Hiya Ginger, hope you had a nice Memorial Day weekend. Fwiw, I really like Riverstone Resources at current prices (RVREF). You may like Northern Tiger as a Yukon play as well. I own both.

    How do you like my new 'stache?



  112. looks to me like the PMs are just trading 'risk on/risk off' again.

    It's all about Greece and the Euro, IMO.

  113. @ewc58
    Can anyone say wildman?

    if you love jim willie (who doesn't) make sure you listen to his March 1st interview -he talks about silver for > 1hour.
    Its his best one EVER.

  114. Atlee,

    Watching the spread with great interest. Hope it works out for you.

    Gold/silver leadership has reversed from last week. Tough to play this right.

  115. Ongiddyboo a lot molson cdn. Which site is that one on- - got a link?

  116. 1:40p


    Gold closes 50 cents lower at $1,536.80 an ounce

  117. @ssk
    I shouldn't have said anything. not working as good as was earlier. oh well we will see.

  118. New article from James Turk.

    "Gold and Silver Form Promising Bullish Divergences"


  119. I honestly don't see anywhere in the gold/silver miners to put money at present. Gains here have little to run. Risk high as ever.


  120. @ewc58
    heres jim willie radio
    your going love it!

  121. Sometimes Tyler Durden (which one?) really does crack me up. Here's a very Durden-esque riff on the story that oil from Fukushima is now leaking into the ocean too...

    "So in other words, not only is Godzilla coming, he will be more greased up than the Situation".

    word ver: dabinge!

    That's Fukin' funny.


  122. Kurt, Thanks for the lead. This is the link I found for the notice day along with the expiration for various futures.


    For silver, I don't see any notice day on June 29th. June 29th notice day appears to be for Gold, Copper and Paladium. But, guess from Turd's analysis, silver may correct around then along with the rest?

  123. I've got tiny gold 1535.5 and tiny silver 38.5.


    for anyone or everyone. what is tiny gold & silver?

    does this refer to the 10 ounce emini in chicago & the 1000 ounce emini silver ????

    Can anyone list the sizes available to trade. I someone on this blog mentioned a 500 ounce silver.

    I am investigating my options of where to go. I figure there are stocks, commodities and options on both. but not sure of the various options in each group as to what advantages each might have.

    I probably want and need 24 hour liquidity or at least knowledge about how to extend the US hours if needed.

    Thanks guys & gals

  124. RVM catching a major bid.


  125. Shill,

    Did not see RVM's rise. Sold it all last week unfortunatley. Scott ought to be thrilled. Now RVM has nothing but a pocket of air on the way back up. I've got to check this out more.

  126. SSK, for a handful of carefully selected diamonds in the rough explorer/juniors and a couple of mids (UXG and NGD), I'm a long-termer.

    Buy the best for less is what I get from this pain. In that way, my outlook is no different from metals accumulation. While I hate the suppression of PMs, I love what I can buy them for b/c of it.

    I respect your ability to make money in this very difficult environment. I see my own big paydays as being down the pike a good bit. But the really poor performance in my trading stocks has hurt my ability to turn those gains into more phyzz via DCA.

    THAT I do not appreciate Blythe. No soup for you!

  127. Turd, should we fear the Ben Bernanke poster who made the first comment? Didn't he call it right before the margin massacre? I am very long SLV calls this week and don't need to be spooked!

  128. RVM had a .27 spike on less than 60,000 shares traded. That's unusual to say the least. Anybody know what's up? Scott, you out there?

  129. John, you'll see a lot of people claiming this and that in this gig, and once you notice that its all vague shit that makes them "right" no matter what happens, you'll start to give them no credit. "surprise" for example would be considered a hit in both cases silver rallied or plummeted.

    Until a guy states direction, date and time consistently, i wouldn't put much stock in random one-liners from impostors.

  130. John said...
    Turd, should we fear the Ben Bernanke poster who made the first comment? Didn't he call it right before the margin massacre? I am very long SLV calls this week and don't need to be spooked!

    May 31, 2011 2:21 PM


  131. I will offer this out there as there is some major news coming down the pipe with this companys advances tommorow. ASTM ( Bio tech )


    Snipt: ANN ARBOR, Mich., May 31, 2011 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Aastrom Biosciences, Inc. (Nasdaq:ASTM), the leading developer of patient-specific, expanded multicellular therapies for the treatment of severe, chronic cardiovascular diseases, today announced the following webcast

    up 27% so far for me....Enjoy.

  132. EWC58,

    NGD is a champ of late. I'm gambling with JAG and pulled the trigger on the fertilizers, POT and MOS.

    I see a couple of good shorts. TRE stands out, but I can't get TDAmeritrade to lend me the shares on TRE. CDE has been swinging wildly. I'm pissed at myself for missing the 26.81 earlier today.

    Kind of a blah day. Going to go pick strawberries and hit the pool. Hotter than shit right now.

    Good luck all.

  133. Guys, any thoughts on an entry point for crude? Dying to get in but it looks too rich, eh?

  134. Just in:

    Fed very unlikely to launch QE3: JP Morgan Chase


    Hmm might not be good for PM's

  135. @John, check the comment thread or search for "Ben Bernanke said..." site:tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com

    This incarnation of the Bernankster has not contributed much of value to the site, and certainly did not "call" anything prior to May 6th, which appears to be his(?) first comment on the blog.

    His other gems include:
    Ben Bernanke said...
    May 6, 2011 12:17 PM

    Ben Bernanke said...
    Please pay close attention to my remarks tomorrow, you'll LOVE it!
    May 17, 2011 10:52 PM

    There is plenty to be nervous about in terms of investing in silver (esp. paper "silver" SLV), this 'guy' is not one of them.

  136. @Shill -- yeah, but

    "So... anyone feel convinced?
    In other words, we just need two more QE 3 denials, before the cock crows, for it to be officially confirmed." -- Tyler Durden

    Delayed? Possibly. The prospect of economic armageddon dangled before congress/investing public to make the point that it's necessary? Probably. Cancelled? No way.

  137. I'm liking Silver here. Just got off the phone on a bank wire deal for hard physical from Scottsdale Silver. Wow! Those 10 ounce & 100 oz King STACKERS look & fit mighty good in my safes.

  138. @Shill - Sinclair has already fully discussed the ramifications of QE3 situation. The end game is already locked in.

  139. Wille "Jack Brown" Lee said...

    Guys, any thoughts on an entry point for crude? Dying to get in but it looks too rich, eh?

    Take a gander at Turd's chart up top. Looks like former resist line of 101.50 is now support. Somewhere between 102 and there might work out, but do your own analysis, manage your risk, make your own call, manage your risk and have some powder dry. I'm out of WTI trade right now.


  140. Fed very unlikely to launch QE3: JP Morgan Chase

    now there is a credible source!

  141. I wonder if the Greek people are being told they are about to agree to give away their sovereignty in return for another temporary bailout of european banks?

    Why do I have a feeling that the greeks are hearing a completely different story than is being told to the germans, french, dutch, finns...

  142. This comment has been removed by the author.

  143. anonymous belongs in spam.

  144. What, you got a problem with The Cerebrus Parthenon or sumpthin'? Oracle's oracle at Delphi?
    Thermopylae, brought to you by Thermos?

    C'mon dude, just stand back and let that Free Market magic make it all good in Greece.

  145. I got my GG calls and, as of this moment, am just barely green but I am feeling more comfortable about the PMs this afternoon. FUBM seems to be in play. I think gold is looking more solid so I bought some July 35 ANV calls. I can flip them or hold them as circumstances warrant.

  146. Atlee I like the " Very, very unlikely part lol.

    Such a dog and pony show.

    Very very very very very old to say the least.

  147. How many more people are you gonna run off the site, atlee?

    Some of us like to listen to *every* opinion.

  148. @ Shill
    lol...and how about troll evil? what a joke.

  149. Gold haters propaganda alert:

    Gold lower as safe-haven buying dries up


  150. @ leonard
    LOL if you run that is your problem. I havent run anybody off. grow up

    Evil can just go aheahd and say what he wants without the cloak and dagger bs.

  151. Let's see. Looks like Santa Sinclair Vs. JP Morgan on the "question" of QE3...

    Hmmmm.... hard one there.... give me a minute...

  152. Dude you already ran off xty, Blythe, Trinity Blue, that hamster guy, the vamoose, and a bunch of other people with dissenting opinion. And it turned out in the end some of those people were right. I know I saved a buttload of cash one day on a midnight post by Blythe.

    Anyways I dont see why you have to attack all those people sure if you disagree with them go ahead and say why, but why get rid of those people completely when some visitors might want to hear what they have to say. For instance now I have to go track down Trinity B at that other blog and why shouldn't info like that be able to be shared here? And in the case of the evil guy I think you were the one who told him he should just email his confidential stuff to turd directly (or someone else said that or whatever) but why are you calling him out for not making it public now. Anyway I dont get why you can't just let everyone say their thing and just ignore it if you dont like it.

    Free exchange of ideas man! The Turdster always said free exchange of ideas as long as you be polite! Some of you people here are trying to be controlling thoughts like the EE is controlling the silver!

  153. Evil,

    please let us suckers now.. especially if it means we need to take action before the close today.

  154. Hey Leonard, if Trinity B says anything important can you please let us know here? BTW are you referring to the screw-tape files blog?

  155. @ Leonard

    I did not run off xty. The others, Well if I am responsible for that lots disapperance, then I am proud. I highley doubt I am responsible for their demise though. Leonard, I am not going to get in a pissing contest with you. If you think a guy named evil has got something you want to hear, then I know I guy named Fish who has some penny stocks you want to hear about too.

    If someone has something to say then say it. You saved a butt load of money becasue of your own interpretation of some cyrptic mumbo jumbo. You just don't want to give yourself credit for it. You would rather admit you need inside info to be successful.

    You are being very foolish son.

  156. Leonard, who cares. I certainly don't.

  157. I did not run off xty. The others, Well if I am responsible for that lots disapperance, then I am proud. I highley doubt I am responsible for their demise though. Leonard, I am not going to get in a pissing contest with you. If you think a guy named evil has got something you want to hear, then I know I guy named Fish who has some penny stocks you want to hear about too.


    I know a guy named Beeks, and we are meeting in an unnamed location for the frozen concentrated orange juice report...hang tight I'll clue you all in later..//////SNARK/////////

  158. SSK
    if you like agricultural plays you should check out yukon's blog.
    he recommended encanto potash awhile back and it's kicking arse.

  159. If someone has meaningful, important data/info to share -- they will. If said insight can be justified, supported, logically argued, the community here will listen.

    If someone is trying to use this forum as a mouthpiece to a) garner attention for narcissistic ends, or worse b) try to spread FUD, or worst c) try to co-opt TF into spreading disinfo by claiming to be an insider with an attack of conscience, they SHOULD BE run out of Turdtown on a rail.

    If Evil or anyone else wants to learn how to communicate in a 'semi' clandestine fashion, there are a bunch of resources out there. A place to start:

  160. Leonard, you make a decent case. But it's BOATload bro. That might have lost ya a couple of points :-0)

    Dissenting opinions are encouraged. That hamster guy? Not encouraged. Anonymous emails from Evil? I'm gonna pass on those every time. LOL

  161. ok what does everyone think.. Up overnight?

  162. Gold Silver Ratio is back in the 39's.

  163. Going home long some AGQ bot at 202.25 today.

  164. Any of you see this...JP MORGAN largest purchaser of platinum...buying hand over fist. Write up at seeking alpha-


  165. Today's trades getting close to green. But just so you don't think I took the morning off completely, just scored this gem on eBay for SPOT about 5 mins ago...

    with CC and eBay incentives, I'm going to end up about $1 under spot x100 and I've got zero interest for 12 months if I decide to finance it (vs. pay off in full, my usual cc m.o.)

    And yes, I'd love for my trades to go green enough to pay for this outright anyway, but I won't complain if it takes another day to get there :)

    Keep your eyes on the ball boys, it's not always about the trading acct.

  166. @atlee

    You got me beat, I bought a batch of AGQ at 203... rebuilding what I sold on Friday, still hoping for a beatdown this week so I can load up the rest lower than I sold. But I suspect that I won't care much about the purchase price when we get to 42$ silver.... ;-)

  167. Gimme a break, Leonard. You based a big trade upon an ambiguous post by an anonymous "Blythe" with no track record. Why not just consult your tea leaves?

    As to the rest of your post - TF ran off Hamster. Trinity = Ben Bernanke = Blythe = troll. vamoose is interesting, but clearly medicated. As for xty, no one knows why she disappeared.

    atlee is an asset. These wanna-be Nostradamuses are not. I can't believe that some of y'all can't discern the difference.

  168. Thread music:



  169. @Kiwi.

    We are looking pretty good here on the close.

    If there is abeat down coming, lets try to be out of these before it happens.

    @ Mister

    thanks man.

  170. i have a question about bars from apmex.
    i got some of their random 10 oz bars awhile back, and they are a gram off.
    is this why they are cheaper? or should i demand my money back?

  171. and btw hammy had a chart, even though he came here saying we were dropping when we were at 42, i don't know why, that went up to 50, down to 32, up to 42, then down from there...will be interesting to see what happens as this is pretty close to what just about everyone is calling for now, and he did that chart back in march.

  172. Nice pump job at the close.

    Total farce. But entertaining

  173. Fair enough and I admit that atlee is an asset of course and that the Bernankster is obviously a comic relief. I do not think they are all the same person btw. But Trinity B had some insights and Blythe had some tips that paid off for me. And the "Evil" fellow seems to be genuine trying to do the right thing and share what they know, even though they may be either ignorant or crazy or an unwittingly agent of the EE.

    But who is anyone else besides TF to tell me what I can and can't read on this blog? I dont like the insinuation that because you think I am foolish to consider their post that I should not be allowed to do read it.

    But you have to admit that you cannot assume the reason why people post what they do nor can you know 100% who they are or not.

  174. I've been long paper Comex gold for over a week now. I'm staying long.

  175. Leonard,



    I think of The Beatles: "Let It Be"

    Ol' Michael

  176. ewc,
    I just added your latest 2 miner mentions to my watchlist. (Thank You) ..hoping to buy during the summer months after doing some add'l DD (and after some money appears 'round here :)

    ...your 'stache makes you look a little like Mario on the tiny photo. :D

  177. Leonard
    I apologize to you if it is to much trouble for you to click on another website to get your dose of tarrot card readings. So sorry to cause you the extra mouse click or two.

    I am just a guy who has been lucky but I do say what I have to say very clearly. I do not spell check because I don't care.

    Anyone who leaves a blog because they feel intimidated by one person is not a very strong character and I feel no loss of their presence.

  178. @Leonard
    You can read whatever you want here as long as somebody posts it and Turd lets it stay posted. atlee didn't force anybody to stop posting here, the posters did (and maybe Turd?) Hurt feelings among those folks and they left? Oh geez, what drama. So enough with the whining.

    I'm not usually one to mix it up on this stuff, easier to let atlee do it :) but really...who cares? This is the internet. The only certainty is that nothing is as it appears. I'll go on the record stating that I do not believe atlee is actually Keith Richards. And I am not George Soros. Or am I?

  179. Who's still long right now? I am. My day trade gold/silver are presently net green about $6. Total. :)

  180. @eric# 1 or anyone for that matter
    I have an opportunity to go back in time. I have been kicking myself for not pulling the trigger on a gsr trade when it was 32: 1. well after some dealin I sold 33 oz and am now sitting on 1560 frn. My question is pay down debt our get that nice $ 20 double eagle I have been wanting for a while. I owe myself 2400 on my stack. eric, I remember you saying it was a good time to pay down some debt. my problem is that I am skeptical that we will see 33: 1 anytime in the near future. Also, I m a big plan b guy, what if silver crashes or takes forever to break out after the summer. I may habe to get a second job before I see my stack appreciate to double. Any way any insight would be great. I know dyodd but both options sound good to me.

  181. @shill

    that pump job was impressive at the close i must say. I love how the market was up all day today even after all the negative data about housing. guessing they are trying to pump the market up so when it corrects they can have more of a reason for the next round of QE.

  182. @ Pailin


    Here ya go: a little diddy by freddie king


    I went home long AGQ.

  183. @Tim
    My only advice can be do what will let you sleep best at night. And if you're married what will keep the missus sleepin' with you. The end of the world will come soon enough...between now and then you need to be okay with your life.

    33:1 is as easy as $60 and $2000. Might not happen before year end, but then again..?

  184. Get the Double Eagle. You won't regret it. Especially if it's the 1908 "no motto" variety...

    Ol' Michael

  185. Pailin,

    funny my day trade ended up up $6 as well... it was down $200 at one point.. shizer...

  186. BEEF ----- anyone looking at any CATTLE Calls ?

    The August cattle 106 calls are 282 points or $1128.00. The 108 calls are 202 points or $808.00.

    I'm a metals/ag/softs guy but the chart from TF over the weekend has me thinking. Or perhaps outright futures.


  187. My new positions - Gold July (June expired with a nice profit), Silver July, and MOO! Meat - all a tad down, but well within normal fluctuations. If the market does what I want, I should be Ok either way.

    Oh, and I am short the POSX which is then "up" for me.

    Oh, and check out my new(er) icon