Monday, May 2, 2011

Three Quick Charts

Just a quick update as I am seriously strapped for time. I'll try to give you a more comprehensive review of the last 24 hours later today.

First, here's the POSX. It is perilously close to breaking down through 73 on the June (about 72.80 spot).
IF 73 fails, we will see the critical support near 72 begin to get tested. Watch this closely.
Here is gold. A very impressive rally back from last night. As long as it keeps following the trendline, 1575 will eventually fall.
Silver would appear to be at a critical point. It need to hold the area around 46. IF it drops below there and then below 45, it will almost certainly head back down and test last night's lows below 43. IF it can hold 46 and move higher, a move back UP through 47.50 would send it quickly to 48.50 and, from there, a possible retest of the 49.50 area. So, watching 46 this afternoon should be a high priority.

More later. TF

275 comments:

  1. @ObsoleteMan

    May is seasonally strong for both silver and gold. Seasonal weakness should not be argued until June.

    Source 1 & Source 2

    Everyone pretending they have a crystal ball should stfu.

    ReplyDelete
  2. eXactly waFFen. why do you dOOds F w/ this paper buLL shEEt??? the only way the gOOse lay that GOLDEN eGG is to squEEze it!

    i stiLL hold the exact same # of OZ i held friday night. i buy physical the first dip every month. Last month i paid 38/OZ, i am oFF this afternOOn and wiLL pay no more than 45/OZ. i am not droPPin the entire check today, but $1500 worth is gOOd for me. i want to kEEp some power b/c it may go lower...GOT to BTFDzz brah!

    F paper HOLD METAL. you wiLL fEEl much beTTer.

    ReplyDelete
  3. More lousy news for SILVER-->
    Eric Sprott defends selling his silver units! READ IT HERE

    ReplyDelete
  4. I've been into "investing" for probably 15 years and I know better than to try to time the market. I bought at $42 last night and will again at $39 as that has been my BTFD target for weeks now.

    This can be incredibly addicting. I now have a real-time tracker app on my BB phone. I have netdania on my desktop (when it works) streaming 24/7. But, sometimes it gets too stressful, whether you're long or short and time off is necessary. Don't worry, the end of Amerika isn't tomorrow and PM's will not drop in half.

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  5. We got on the train late here in the Pablo household but hey, what's there to worry about? Before finding this blog and the Turd, I would have been browning my shorts at something like this while my wife would have been out racking up the credits cards without a care in the world.

    Just look at us now! This is all thanks to Turd and 4 months of preparations...

    1) We're averaged into our physical at about $35 and $1450 respectively

    2) We have cash reserves for "emergency" purposes

    3) We have paid off and cut up over half of our credit cards with the profits we made trading

    4) We've refinanced the house at a low rate (should have rented, I admit, you never really own your own house - just ask the tax assessors office)

    5) We have food stored, rice, oats, salt, sugar, freeze dried meals, canned foods, and food preparation equipment (kelly kettle, charcoal, propane, etc)

    6) We have water and water purification equipment (berkly filter, bottled water)

    7) We have first aid supplies and equipment

    8) We have wool blankets, extra (cheap walmart) clothes, TP, soap, deoderant

    9) We keep the gas tanks full, have a few portable cans, and a get out of dodge contingency plan

    The only thing we haven't done yet is to buy guns, and to get out of the damn city and find self-sustainable property by running water.

    So, why worry? If it all ends tomorrow my wife and two kids and myself will be better off than most of the rest of those around us.

    I love you, Turd Ferguson!

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  6. "Karim said...
    MARGIN HIKE AGAIN... AINT FUNNY ANYMORE...
    If our Asian friends have to sell because of margin calls overnight it will be FUGLY... Am out."

    Only as far as I'm informed, but the Asian market is frickin physical. So no margin calls. Futures traders in these timezones with margin calls already had the chance to get out yesterday via the US electronic markets that are open 23h15m every day.

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  7. Hey guys this just in,

    They killed Obama

    http://27.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lkjtlhtgPN1qz5ew6o1_500.png

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  8. Why is everyone freaking out so bad????

    Seriously, what the crap!

    What fundamental has changed, other than the rediculous margin hikes?

    Nothing!

    The dollar is still on the edge of death and NOTHING has changed! Please explain to me where some of you are getting off saying that we are headed south for the whole summer? Frickin idiots, pull your heads out of your asses!

    Yeah we may still go lower, then again we may be at 47 tomorrow morning, fundamentals haven't changed as far as I can tell. If I am wrong please explain to me why the bottom is going to keep falling in out?

    Don't get me wrong, my day sucked too, but get real!

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  9. For newbie in PM market, I know ObsoleteMan might be pissed off but I would take what he said with lots of grain of salt. I am not disputing that he is right or wrong and I appreciate him for sharing many years of experience with us. But I want to point out that he has been calling top few times already when there is big pull back just before large explosion as few examples below. By keep doing this he will be right eventually and he will come again with "See, I told you so".

    Again, he maybe right, and I agree with him that we should be careful, but what I want to hear is not his decisive statement like "Silver will not see $49 again for MANY months". I would rather hear more useful analysis like what atlee or Turd can tell us with deep insight into the technicals/fundamentals of the market without making judgmental calls for long term. At the end, who can be absolutely sure what will happen for many months in this environment? Sure, silver can go back below $40 or above $60 in one month, but I don’t want to predict the future. I will make sound decision based on the dynamic observation of the market and the wisdom I learned from here. We are grown-ups and responsible for our own decision.

    **********************some examples******************
    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/are-you-ready-for-35.html#comments
    TheObsoleteMan said...
    I hate to go against the charts and the Turd, but I have a sickening feeling that the PMs are about to get taken to the mat. We have been at these levels for too long. I pray I am wrong {for the sake of my portfolio}, but I am getting more concerned by the minute. Tonite will be decisive.

    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/all-eyes-on-japan.html
    TheObsoleteMan said... March 16th
    I told you guys to stop catching falling knives. The truth is this, if you can handle it: The commodity complex will continue to be sold off as long as all of this correction plays out, however long that takes. Until the margin calls stop, the selling will be brutal. I said last week the market correction was probobly upon us. Well, it is. Plan accordingly.

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  10. Sorry for all the spelling errors but I am pissed! It gets old when everytime we have a correction trolls start screaming that the sky if falling...

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  11. So for our posterity, in the SLA's great war against the EE, how will this be remebered. May Day Ambush 2011?

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  12. "Economic Analyst said...
    More lousy news for SILVER-->
    Eric Sprott defends selling his silver units! READ IT HERE"

    So? He decided to invest more into the miners. Good choice imo. Give it a break man. The world isn't going to end.

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  13. EA,
    How is that bad news for silver? Sprott has been selling shares since around the 16th of April, it's not like he just dumped them all today. The first thing that crossed my mind was that he has legal fees/issues with Aurcana and just might need some freed up $. He also is heavy on investing in miners and could have a few new ones he wants to invest in and he has recently increased his holdings in Northair. If anything I'd say you have it backwards and still don't know shit about the silver market. Sprott selling shares of PSLV when it's up 50% in 6 months is hardly bad news for silver.

    BTW,
    How did Westminster Resources & Confederation Minerals work out for you after you came here touting them? I'll give you a hint: one of them is down 6% since then and the other is down 40%, I thought you said those were "good tips for the crew"?

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  14. After reading a few thousand comments from the last couple weeks on this blog, I am still going for Au $2150 and Ag $134, with GSR about 16 by end 2011.

    This assumes POS$ is around 64.

    What happens if the Yen dies, then the Euro?

    Will the POS$ be devalued by 50 to 75%?

    In that case maybe the figures above will be doubled?

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  15. I bought physical back in March. I bought twice since then at prices lower than they are now. I bought physical to hold and keep, not to worry over what the price might be in 5 minutes. I bought physical to protect myself and my family from economic collapse and/or inflation.

    Ignoring all the fundamentals, to those who hold physical, remember we own it. It's in our hands. It isn't a bunch of digital numbers. If the price crashes back down to $4.00 an ounce I will buy more and then wait. I might wait 30 years but it's a long term investment.

    Lastly, don't invest more than you can afford to lose. I could lose it all but you know what, I can still feel cold ASE's in my hands.

    Peace.

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  16. @ Pablo

    Great preparations! You REALLY need to buy at least a shotgun and some buckshot for home/bugout protection.

    Remember, the FIRST thing they stop selling when you need them most is guns and ammunition.

    Better to have them and not need them than to need them and not have them.

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  17. @FreeBoundary

    That's good intel. On the new site I'll start a thread keeping track of top calling comments. That ought to put the crystal balls back in the bag. In fact I'll start one of those google spreadsheets right now for it. First entry goes to ObsoleteMan.

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  18. Another silver margin rate hike Monday http://www.zerohedge.com
    Another trainload of adult diapers pulling into jpig morgue.

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  19. It's time we give them a little Judo lesson, If they want paper, give them paper. Use your funds in oil or gold,phzz or somewhere else,

    If your opponent pushes, you do not push back, you pull, offsetting his balance an over extending himself .

    Do not push back , pull , let them drive the price down to 30 then attack .

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  20. @ c6eef5b4-3c40-11e0-9015-000bcdcb471e

    You mirror my thinking... I'm holding out for some real physical buying opportunities this summer.

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  21. Gold just had a 10 dollar spike down in the Globex, that's not a good sign, but silver was untouched.

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  22. afrum,
    I gotta hand it to you - you can put a smile on my face even on a day like this one has been.

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  23. lord koos said...
    You mirror my thinking... I'm holding out for some real physical buying opportunities this summer.
    +1
    sitting decent now... think wait till opportunity
    presents it's self again! PATIENCE

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  24. On NetDania its showing Gold dropped to 1516 over a minute period, almost $30! WTF!

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  25. 483,000 volume on the spike down in the Net Dania. These bastards have no shame. yes, afrum puts one on mine too. hahaha

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  26. If Netdania is to be believed, XAU actually reached all the way down to 1516.70. These metals are so very odd these days.

    No matter what you do, buy/sell/hold, please watch your overall position and don't get yourself in trouble. There are real things like food, rent/mortgage and taking the lady out on Saturday night. Leave a little to the side for that stuff too!

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  27. Folks,

    We REALLY need to pool our collective wisdom regarding investing in silver. Anticipating and positioning for the EE moves would ease our pain. For example, with the Hong Kong and London markets closed we SHOULD have expected the smack-down today given the light trading. I can't keep up with all the holidays, but our international friends do.

    In the Army we had After Action Reviews to critique each major phase of training. These clearly identified what went wrong and WHY it went wrong. Why don't we do that?

    Turd, in the new site could there be a "Lessons Learned" section?

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  28. geeze, you are right enjansel, I totally misread that. Truly amazing !

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  29. torx.
    Lesson learned #1.
    The COMEX gets what the COMEX wants.

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  30. Interesting to see this up and down exactly as predicted by many. Especially since Bin Ladin has been reported as dead since ling long time.
    In 2001 on an American hospital in Dubai(on dialysis) and then
    Flashback: Benazir Bhutto Says Osama Bin Laden Dead In 2007!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDTEEXG3ge8


    But I guess the markets move cause there always are a lot of people who never get it.

    Also 1 $ moves as well as 5$ moves has been predicted.

    No fear, only gain.

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  31. This market is nuckin futs!!! Did you just see gold!!!!!!!!!

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  32. watch out for a takedown, it's the ideal time

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  33. This volume in the Net Dania is incredibly high, a sure sign of EE at work.

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  34. some shit is going on at globex.

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  35. @sumo
    Indeed. The nice little lift there on XAG is a gift if you sweated out the US close an hour ago.

    @all
    Maybe the kitchen is too hot? Take your loss and sit to the side and wait out this mess? Could let you sleep better at night anyway. That's what I did this morning, took almost all of my "too much" position off the table at 45.40 and haven't looked back. A little day trading sure, but look where we closed and look where we are now. A full buck under. I was too heavy and I knew it. Took the loss and knew it wouldn't pull me down further. Something to think about.

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  36. @Robert Leroy Parker,
    Thanks for your effort. I think it is important to do all our effort to keep inexperienced PM investors from selling in panic by listening to top callers or troll(like I did when I was newbie).

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  37. Are the big boys now playing a game of long gold/short silver, then reverse? Maybe that's what we're seeing?

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  38. Pailin: yes, sweated it out.

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  39. Ok, I need help "converting" a family member. Person in question has had gold for ages now, A bunch sitting in Perth and a small stack local to 'em. Finally started to gain some headway with the "you need silver" argument and they want to take out a paper position. "I'll get physical later" they say.

    I've been working on this person for months now, saying silver has the same protection vs. inflation factor as gold, but has additional upside due to demand issues. COMEX default/commercial signal failure looming, and they're still happy in paper. This person's not stupid, they're a goldbug from the 70's, introduced me to Ron Paul, Harry Browne, etc... We agree philosophically on most matters PM related, they just don't buy the whole EE manipulation/default looming scenario, or that the economic situation is deteriorating faster than they planned for.

    I'm at my wits end. How do I convince them that the demand issues are real, to forget about paper at least until they've started building a physical position? HELP!!

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  40. We desperately need the new site or an intermediate forum, so as torx points out we can pool our knowledge and record everything. Even a free intermediate forum would work.

    We need something now.

    Missing May day was a huge fuck up we should have seen. I know i only held onto my calls because i was expecting a chinese buy over the weekend thay ofcourse was never going to happen.

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  41. @ Pailin,
    I did just that starting on Friday, as of closing today I am down to just two miners and my physical. It was hard not to buy the dip today in some of these miners, but cautious is the name of my game until theings cool down or a signs of a definite updtrend show up. I like volatility, but this recent action is whack.

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  42. @Justin
    Yep, there's a program in play right now and none of us has the pocketbook to fight it alone. Sometimes it's good to just watch and wait.

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  43. I am appreciative and humbled by the thanks and compliments. If I was able to help some people today I am very happy.

    I feel I missed the signs this was about to happen. I was only 25% long but I should have been flat over the weekend. The gold silver ratio GSR was probably the key and I should have realized that Friday when it started to deteriorate.

    I think the fundamentals have not changed but Technical damage was done to the silver chart today. No shit right. Until we heal, it is going to be sideways action in a deep box. Best trading is going to be hit and run ( nothing new there) or sit on your hands until the bottom of the box is well established then pay up to add.

    Those who are interested, Ira Epstien preaches the same technicals I use except I don't use his swingline. The rest of it is pretty close. He has some videos on line and does a daily metals update around 4 pm est the link is:
    http://iraepstein.linngroup.com/videos/midday-metals-report.html
    it is all technical analysis and very good.
    So I think the low was that 42.22 print. If I am wrong, then it will be 40. ugh.
    I don't trade my core holding portfolio and it had a pretty ugly day too. I want it back to what is was Friday, just like you. But wants and emotion have to stay out of this game. Having the courage of your convictions is what will win the day for you. Thanks again.

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  44. From Dan Norcini:

    http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/05/cme-group-hikes-margin-requirements-for.html

    "...Small specs - be extremely careful in this market right now. There is an attempt going on here to rid the general public of its positions leaving only the big boys to play..."

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  45. A smart player has already taken profit and is sitting on the sideline with a small core here. Remember the big boyz are still in control to some extent as long as they are allowed to throw freshly printed naked shorts and rig the margins. Let the dust settle as Yukon suggests and if you are fully paper invested sell half and hold tight. This is not the beginning of a bear market in silver but it can get whacked hard for a few weeks. Chinese could step in within a couple of days and rip it up again but if you get a nasty pullback here you could puke up a lot if you don't have the steel in your nads.....gl

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  46. I'm out of paper silver as of last night. I bailed early and never tried to get back in. (I sure wish I had bought and ridden that dip.)

    I'm down to a 1/2 paper gold position. At this point I'm hoping gold drops more and I'll add as it drops. Otherwise I'll add the next trading range I can identify.

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  47. Post Mortem

    Fellas (ladies too, I'm using the gender-neutral sort of...oh, never mind), I think a post-mortem on this attack is what we need to do, not bitch about it. I think there were some serious tells that Ag was headed for the pain locker, for example:

    1) Glorious Leader proclaims evil speculatorz will attend most excellent re-education facility in Nova Sibirsk.

    2) Capo-de-capo Ben mentions in his first press conference that sheeple are supposed to be investing in stocks, not Gold and shit.

    3) Commercial traders (based on Norcini's COT analysis) disappeared or reduced positions significantly.

    4) Lg specs also (if memory serves) had much reduced exposure.

    5) Small specs were hanging out there, probably margined to the hilt, vulnerable.

    6) MSM running stories attacking Au & Ag as bubblicious etc.

    7) Nonsense but psychologically important high of 50 almost touched (of course in off hours).


    Don't get me wrong, they got a piece of my tail today, but I really want to understand their game plan so I can profit from it. If the market is going to be driven back to 35/37, cool, I'll buy puts or put spreads and profit from their manipulation.

    Most important to me though, is to understand the signals that say something wicked this way comes.

    Any other things that you noticed that made you think something was up?

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  48. Silver up and Gold down now (not sure what market this is). Crazy days!
    3000 Au contracts the first minute!

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  49. Big boys are buying in an orderly fashion around $44.4

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  50. I became a bag holder of CEF as I just can't sell it at -5% NAV. Any expert in CEF care to share wisdom on this nonsensical situation please? Thanks.

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  51. I know we want a game plan and lessons learned, but how can one factor in something like a COMEX margin hike - or 3? It is definitely their game and their rules.

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  52. Agree with smarsack61 here, this is when we should be dissecting the riad itself to give us more to look for in the future. To ride this bull, volatility will have to become our friend.

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  53. I bought AGQ last week at 376, and then again this week at 371. I feel like it will take forever for it to get back to those levels. Meaning I feel like silver won't get near 50 for a long time. I know I don't have to ask this; but I will. Should I hold onto my AGQ?

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  54. @TheObsoleteMan I laughed a little with the "Leroy Jenkins" reference, I wonder how many people on here understood that...

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  55. I think Torx, Waffen and Smarsack have a good idea. Think smarsack's post was very helpful. It could be a little "pros and cons" corner. one of you mentioned that complaining does not solve the problem. We need some collective thinking.

    FWIW (not much) I think TPTB are so loathe to have the MSM highlight the fact that silver has reached an all-time (nominal)high, they will throw anything in its path to prevent it.

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  56. APMEX Current ASE Inventory

    2011 1 oz Silver American Eagle = 80755

    2011 SAE Tube May 13 = 516

    Silver American Eagle 500-Coin Monster Box

    2009 = 1
    2008 = 3
    2006 = 2
    2005 = 1
    2003 = 1
    2002 = 1
    2001 = 1
    2000 = 3
    1998 = 1
    1991 = 1

    I see no 2011 MB's

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  57. Heavy squash capped off with a Flash Crash come to gold. Should we be surprised? Commies just LOVE May 1. This is just more of the wild volatility that James Turk and others have warned us to expect. Longer term, this dip will only be meaningful as having been a fine PM buying opportunity.

    Just stay cool everyone, things will be fine again soon. In the meantime, don't get shaken out of prized positions. ESPECIALLY physical metal. The fundies have not changed, but the technical sustained some damage. Unless you're in a rush, just wait it out.

    I'm really glad that many of you weren't here in January as I'm not sure you would have survived. And the Summer of 2010 was brutal too. And this week's bullshit??? This is NOTHING compared to either of those sustained periods of pain.

    The EE is getting increasingly desperate and all this noise is just the big boys trying to make little guys feel like they want to puke, and then like they must sell.

    Scumbags of the most vile sort will be there to profit from your panic. DON'T let them- - don't panic. There's no good reason to.

    Good hunting!

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  58. Oh, Diamond! I feel your pain, $367 here but did not have the courage to ask the question. Congrats for having the brass.

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  59. @ smarsack61

    My input:

    8) Highly unusual gold/silver trading Friday with gold climbing while silver sank.

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  60. I've said it before but I want to mention it again. Yukon is easily one of, if not, THE best poster on this site (outside of our great leader ofc).

    I've got no idea what silver will do short-term but I've got a decent idea of where it's headed and I can be prepared for that.

    All I know is that I became interested in PM's etc by keeping an open mind and I'm not about to stop now just because I've found the "promised land."

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  61. You know they are going to play this game until the chinese step in @ 8:00PM tonight. If you ever thought about buying the dip now waould be the time before the clock strikes 8.
    These margin increases will drive people to the physical market. Watch and treat this like a gift. If you are loaded up just sit tight. Were you going to sell tomorrow anyway ? Gold is the star and they will extract the vig.

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  62. It's probably around now that some of the brighter ones amongst you will be slowly working out what's really going on and who is really behind all of this. And it's not us - we're losing from this too, believe me.

    Be careful of wolves in sheep's clothing, self-enriching sociopaths masquerading as 'honest' or 'a man for the little guy'. They didn't become so filthy rich by those means, did they? And they certainly won't shed a tear for you when you're broken in half.

    Join the dots. Go on - I dare you. Why is silver where it is? Who benefits? How can they benefit from using you? What conduits will they use to get there? And how can they benefit further from then crashing the price?

    If you think the answer to any of the above involves the acronyms 'JPMC' or 'HSBC', then sadly there's nothing more than I can do for you.

    Trinster

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  63. My conclusion is that physical silver is disappearing at premium while the paper is getting cheaper.
    Buy physical!

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  64. thank you, pbfurn. I'm compelled to ask again...

    Those of us who hold AGQ...hold?

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  65. @ Old Navy,
    Thanks for the piece from Avery Goodman. It's a great pep talk when we need one. All should read it.

    @ Pablo,
    I'm in that same boat with you. Sounds like you're moving right along. Peace back at ya.

    @ Afrum,
    You are an amazing fellow.
    The masses will follow you. Keep bangin'.


    @Yukon,
    Thanks for spending some time here.
    I also try to get all sides, and that was great advice for many of the newbies. It's been said before on this blog, but bears repeating often, especially since it's been wine and roses for awhile.
    I feel for the traders here. I know it's been tough, even with the up days days in physical.

    @ Atlee,

    You're approaching Legend status.
    Ira is absolutely worth the daily stop.
    I thank you too for your contributions.

    To all the physical holders,
    They will chase many out, but the ants will win.
    Let em smash it. We'll be there to snatch it up.
    Buy when everyone else is selling.
    Stay resolute, stick together, hold on tight to your stack, and just lay in the weeds. It will come to us.
    Peace everybody

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  66. Dammit, typed a long post and it disappeared while trying to post it. New site won't come soon enough for me.

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  67. @atlee
    Real nice post there bro. My PSLV core weeps tonight :)

    XAG followers..understand that it's pinned under 44.50 and longs are taking little bites out of the huge sell sitting there. Either they fill their need and leave or they take out the short. Considering who the short is, that may not happen and when the buyers are full up...just remember this stuff drops faster than it goes up. It's risk/reward. If a nasty fast run down to 42 or even 40 scares you a lot, maybe it's not the right time to be holding for 47.25 right now. Cuz one is more likely than the other.

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  68. It's my belief that we are going to soar in the PM's tonight. Just an educated hunch. I can't wait until China comes on, but I think they confine their trading in the Nymex hours when the volume can cover their activity.

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  69. I received a news alert from interactive brokers this evening re silver futures and that is the required deposit per contract has been changed from $2500 to $15000
    I can only assume it will reduce the trading in the precious metal and or they expect a wild ride on the PM price so they are asking for more security to cover to cover erratic price movements on that deposit it could drop to $15

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  70. All this natural correction talk would be perfectly fine if we weren't talking about 5 margin hikes in a little over a week. It's not exactly conspiratorial to suggest that the hikes a huge part of this 20% sell-off.

    How many margin hikes on gold in the last week? Of course its chart looks better than silver's.

    Oh well, it is what it is, we have to game this situation as best we can. We already know we're playing in a manipulated "market", so there's really no sense in crying "manipulation!".

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  71. Hmmm...

    Ladies and Gentlemen:
    expect massive volatility in the next few days as the end game is being played out.
    Expect 'atomic bombs' to be released. (massive non backed paper)


    It is getting very difficult for me to report to you as we are witnessing massive fraud on a daily basis.
    It is so hard for me to write these developments to you.


    all the best
    Harvey

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